Scottish Independence

[SHODAN]

As someone who would likely vote now for Independence though, who wouldn't have before, the one thing that sits uneasily with me over this IndyRef2 now argument is how regularly can this battle be fought?

It is not something IMO that should be fought regularly as it is hugely disruptive and destabilising both for the people of the country and its economy and government.

What happens if 5 years down the line after independence folk think WTF and want to go back?

I think it was 40 years between referendums the last time?

That is too long but 20 seems a bit more realistic to me personally.

It is a huge huge deal far different to a change in a political party running the same country

If we want to rejoin and elect a majority of MSPs who promise a referendum on the issue, it'll happen. It'll be up to the former UK to decide whether they would want to admit us.

Hopefully things settle down one way or another.

[BSEJVT]

It's a thorny one. I don't think you can legislate a fixed length of time between referendums when nothing else in the UK constitution is fixed. For example, the UK could repeal the Scotland act and abolish the Scottish parliament the day after any ref if it wanted to. Essentially, as Brexit has shown, if you have any majority in the House of Commons, you can ultimately do anything you like.

I think it would be unreasonable to try and hold a second referendum without going back to the people at an election and winning a majority in parliament on a clear manifesto commitment. Ultimately, if it keeps failing, then people will get tired of it and move on.

As for what happens if people want to go back. If re-Unionism exists and can do the same thing, ie. put it in a manifesto, win an election and then win a referendum, then they will have won the right to go back to rUK and attempt to negotiate a way back. I can't see that ever happening, and obviously rUK may very well either tell Scotland to gtf or attempt to impose punitive terms, but that would be democracy, I guess. :dunno:

It is a hard one

Right now with a totally hopeless Labour Party, who are even more unelectable than they were under Corbyn as they are virtually invisible and the most unpopular Conservative Government I can ever remember in Scotland (and that includes Thatcher's government) it is impossible to see a way back.

What Scotland wants and what England wants/stands for have never been more different in my near 60 years and despite the fact I have huge concerns over our post-Independece economic prospects and the terms we would obtain on leaving I am of a mind to say go for it.

But, Labour & the Conservatives cant remain this bad forever, can they?

It doesn't seem that long ago that Independence was a long way from the looking possible?

Maybe there will be a groundswell for a way back one day but it could only be in the next 20 years I would say for folk who remember the "good old days" of the union as after that no-one would give up their sovereignty on a wing and a prayer.

Yet by my argument and belief it couldn't/ shouldn't be within that timescale as when Independence comes it will need to be given a chance to sink or swim.

[Ozyhibby]

If it wasn’t for Brexit I doubt we would be anywhere close to asking for another referendum yet. And once we have this one, no matter how it goes, there won’t be another for a very long time. It’s why the SNP are focusing so hard on building support for independence rather than campaigning for a referendum. Whenever it is held, it needs to be won.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Just Alf]

If it wasn’t for Brexit I doubt we would be anywhere close to asking for another referendum yet. And once we have this one, no matter how it goes, there won’t be another for a very long time. It’s why the SNP are focusing so hard on building support for independence rather than campaigning for a referendum. Whenever it is held, it needs to be won.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I think you've nailed it, everyone I've spoken to that wants a 2nd referendum/independence seems to be of the same opinion. even one of my work colleagues who wants to remain wants a referendum to get the question asked and dealt with (he thinks it'll be a narrow win for remain).

[Hibrandenburg]

As someone who would likely vote now for Independence though, who wouldn't have before, the one thing that sits uneasily with me over this IndyRef2 now argument is how regularly can this battle be fought?

It is not something IMO that should be fought regularly as it is hugely disruptive and destabilising both for the people of the country and its economy and government.

What happens if 5 years down the line after independence folk think WTF and want to go back?

I think it was 40 years between referendums the last time?

That is too long but 20 seems a bit more realistic to me personally.

It is a huge huge deal far different to a change in a political party running the same country

I'm trying to think of what kind of major change could justify another referendum in the next 20 years if the next one doesn't result in independence? I'm struggling to see anything. If Scotland votes in a majority of independence parties but then again rejects independence in a referendum, then I think most Nats will have to accept that that was it for a couple of decades at least.

[Hibrandenburg]

If it wasn’t for Brexit I doubt we would be anywhere close to asking for another referendum yet. And once we have this one, no matter how it goes, there won’t be another for a very long time. It’s why the SNP are focusing so hard on building support for independence rather than campaigning for a referendum. Whenever it is held, it needs to be won.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

:agree:

[Hibernia&Alba]

If it wasn’t for Brexit I doubt we would be anywhere close to asking for another referendum yet. And once we have this one, no matter how it goes, there won’t be another for a very long time. It’s why the SNP are focusing so hard on building support for independence rather than campaigning for a referendum. Whenever it is held, it needs to be won.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I would agree that Brexit is a potential game changer. A clear majority of Scots did not want to leave the EU, but we have left anyway. It's the predominant reason I would change my vote from No to Yes in another referendum.

[JeMeSouviens]

More from Ciaran Martin (ex-UK civil service head honcho and author of Times article I pasted before) with guest appearance by Tom Devine. This should be required viewing for anyone interested in our Indy debate.

- the legality or otherwise of a referendum and more importantly, its legitimacy
- how the Union changes if it no longer requires the consent of Scots
- how the UK currently works and Scotland's place within it, as laid bare by Brexit
- the limits of further devolution
- why federalism is the deadest of dead ducks
- why the 2014 process is probably best replicated
- the dishonesty of both Yes' sunny uplands and No's Project Fear last time

All very clearly laid out. Worth your time.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J0RVMcZ98mU

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J0RVMcZ98mU

[Steven79]

As someone who would likely vote now for Independence though, who wouldn't have before, the one thing that sits uneasily with me over this IndyRef2 now argument is how regularly can this battle be fought?

It is not something IMO that should be fought regularly as it is hugely disruptive and destabilising both for the people of the country and its economy and government.

What happens if 5 years down the line after independence folk think WTF and want to go back?

I think it was 40 years between referendums the last time?

That is too long but 20 seems a bit more realistic to me personally.

It is a huge huge deal far different to a change in a political party running the same country

We will never want to go back!

Ask Ireland if they want to be ruled by Westminster again?

I'm shocked that so many in Scotland still think that it's "normal" to be ruled from another country especially one that is so different from us.

[Ozyhibby]

More from Ciaran Martin (ex-UK civil service head honcho and author of Times article I pasted before) with guest appearance by Tom Devine. This should be required viewing for anyone interested in our Indy debate.

- the legality or otherwise of a referendum and more importantly, its legitimacy
- how the Union changes if it no longer requires the consent of Scots
- how the UK currently works and Scotland's place within it, as laid bare by Brexit
- the limits of further devolution
- why federalism is the deadest of dead ducks
- why the 2014 process is probably best replicated
- the dishonesty of both Yes' sunny uplands and No's Project Fear last time

All very clearly laid out. Worth your time.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J0RVMcZ98mU

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J0RVMcZ98mU

I’m halfway through and it’s a great listen. [emoji106]


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Keith_M]

RE: The hypothetical scenario of having a referendum after Independence to rejoin the UK.

Out of the dozens of countries & colonies that have become independent from another nation, how many of them have ever had a vote to rejoin?


The idea of that happening is a total nonsense.

[BSEJVT]

We will never want to go back!

Ask Ireland if they want to be ruled by Westminster again?

I'm shocked that so many in Scotland still think that it's "normal" to be ruled from another country especially one that is so different from us.

I am not suggesting for a moment that we would, but it does beg an interesting question in the unlikely event that we did, would those on the independence side of the argument now and the right to hold IndyRef2, be as certain if the boot was on the other foot?

Isn't rejoining the EU (which I think we should never have left to be clear) a step down a similar path to being ruled by London, given the EU's desire which Britain has always resisted to gather more power centrally?

One of my difficulties over the entire thing is that people hold contrary positions on issues which have some similarity.

If we all agreed that we didn't want to be ruled by neither London nor Brussels, it would be far easier to understand.

I agree with someone who posted earlier that we are very different from England now, but I would argue that we are even more different from some of the other EU countries.

[weecounty hibby]

RE: The hypothetical scenario of having a referendum after Independence to rejoin the UK.

Out of the dozens of countries & colonies that have become independent from another nation, how many of them have ever had a vote to rejoin?


The idea of that happening is a total nonsense.

60+ countries have left the broad shoulders of westminster behind and I think there was one who did hold a referendum on rejoining, answered in the negative tho. Can't be bothered looking it up but it may have been one of the Caribbean islands

[danhibees1875]

One of my difficulties over the entire thing is that people hold contrary positions on issues which have some similarity.

If we all agreed that we didn't want to be ruled by neither London nor Brussels, it would be far easier to understand.

I agree with someone who posted earlier that we are very different from England now, but I would argue that we are even more different from some of the other EU countries.

I get where this idea comes from as there is an element of overlap between the two. However, I think there's a difference between the amount of decisions taken in London which subsequently effect us compared to that in Brussels - that along with differing downsides make them two different questions which are possible to get to two different answers I think.

I can't find the stats, but I think c. 40% of spend in Scotland is from reserved decisions. I think it's a fair chunk more for income generated being from reserved decisions (tax rates basically, I think).

Whether those decisions are right/wrong or likely to change to any material degree with independence is worth considering, as is whether the economic upheaval in order to get to the point where these things could maybe be changed, either for better or worse.

I'm still yet to be told anything that the EU actually dictated to me, let alone anything that I shouldn't have liked and was worth the upheaval and downsides of leaving the EU.

[Bristolhibby]

I think you've nailed it, everyone I've spoken to that wants a 2nd referendum/independence seems to be of the same opinion. even one of my work colleagues who wants to remain wants a referendum to get the question asked and dealt with (he thinks it'll be a narrow win for remain).

Problem is, a narrow win for no won’t end it.

Where as a narrow independence will. If “moving on” is the important thing for people, then Scotland has to “move on”.

It’s the only option. The Union is broken.

J

[Bristolhibby]

We will never want to go back!

Ask Ireland if they want to be ruled by Westminster again?

I'm shocked that so many in Scotland still think that it's "normal" to be ruled from another country especially one that is so different from us.

Exactly, and harping back to standing alone together and bearing the Nazis (Godwin’s Law, check) ain’t good enough IMHO.

Scotland and England have been on divergent paths since the fall of Empire (Post WW2). Independence is just the next step on that path that India, Kenya, Malta, etc have taken. They just realised it earlier.

J

[The Modfather]

Have those in favour of the union given up the ghost on this thread? I get it can feel like a big pile on at times as they are in the minority. Or are they just biding their time until there’s meat on the bone and specifics to debate, anything else is just a repeat of what’s been debated 100 times before?

[lapsedhibee]

Have those in favour of the union given up the ghost on this thread? I get it can feel like a big pile on at times as they are in the minority. Or are they just biding their time until there’s meat on the bone and specifics to debate, anything else is just a repeat of what’s been debated 100 times before?

Couple of posters probably still recovering from the eyepopping, jawdropping allegations against Sturgeon not popping any eyes or dropping any jaws.

[Ozyhibby]

Couple of posters probably still recovering from the eyepopping, jawdropping allegations against Sturgeon not popping any eyes or dropping any jaws.

Or even being true. To be fair to them, the union is becoming ever more indefensible and I can’t blame them for no longer trying.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[JeMeSouviens]

I am not suggesting for a moment that we would, but it does beg an interesting question in the unlikely event that we did, would those on the independence side of the argument now and the right to hold IndyRef2, be as certain if the boot was on the other foot?

Isn't rejoining the EU (which I think we should never have left to be clear) a step down a similar path to being ruled by London, given the EU's desire which Britain has always resisted to gather more power centrally?

One of my difficulties over the entire thing is that people hold contrary positions on issues which have some similarity.

If we all agreed that we didn't want to be ruled by neither London nor Brussels, it would be far easier to understand.

I agree with someone who posted earlier that we are very different from England now, but I would argue that we are even more different from some of the other EU countries.

The EU and the UK are very different beasts though. The EU constrains its members within an overarching set of rules but they're still all independent, sovereign countries with all the powers to set the vast majority of their own domestic and international policies. And when it comes to setting the EU's rules, the most important decision making body is the Council of Ministers where all members are directly represented, there is qualified majority voting and a veto over the most important issues. The EU Commission (effectively its executive body) is totally subservient to the CoM. Take, for example, the Brexit negs: Barnier (from the Commission) was given a mandate agreed by all the member states via the CoM and could not go outside the terms of that mandate without going back to the member states for approval.

EU countries are not really "ruled from Brussels" in the sense that there is an all powerful pan-EU government in Brussels handing down decisions. They are ruled jointly in co-operation with all the other members. Yes, Germany and France individually have more influence than Ireland and Denmark. But Ireland and Denmark can push their own agendas and band together with say, Netherlands, Latvia and Estonia, in combination to block something they don't like. Small countries tend to punch above their weight.

Compare and contrast to the UK, we send MPs to Westminster but unless they happen to be members of the governing party, they have absolutely zero influence. We have a devolved parliament with a very limited set of powers compared to an EU member state and that can be overridden on anything at any time, or abolished completely, by a simple majority in the UK parliament and that majority could contain 0 Scottish MPs, it would make no difference.

I don't necessarily think that pooling sovereignty is a bad thing but there is a balance to be struck.

[JeMeSouviens]

Problem is, a narrow win for no won’t end it.

Where as a narrow independence will. If “moving on” is the important thing for people, then Scotland has to “move on”.

It’s the only option. The Union is broken.

J

That's what they said about Québec.

2 refs 15 years apart where Oui got 40% and then 49.5%. It was generally assumed Québec indy was just a matter of time but it hasn't happened.

Scotland/UK and Québec/Canada are hugely different of course, but nothing is inevitable.

[Ozyhibby]

New Panelbase poll has
Yes - 51%
No - 49%


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[degenerated]

That's what they said about Québec.

2 refs 15 years apart where Oui got 40% and then 49.5%. It was generally assumed Québec indy was just a matter of time but it hasn't happened.

Scotland/UK and Québec/Canada are hugely different of course, but nothing is inevitable.

I'm not sure about the demographics of the Quebec vote or support for independence but when you look at support in Scotland for the union it is literally dying out (i know that's a crass analogy) however the only age group that are staunch unionists is the oldest one while support for independence gets stronger as you go down the age groups. It's unstoppable now and just a matter of when, not if.

[Skol]

Have those in favour of the union given up the ghost on this thread? I get it can feel like a big pile on at times as they are in the minority. Or are they just biding their time until there’s meat on the bone and specifics to debate, anything else is just a repeat of what’s been debated 100 times before?

Personally I still read here but I rarely post. I have typed a number of posts and have decided not to submit.

I feel that its not really worthwhile as both points of view are so entrenched and its nigh on impossible to have a debate.

[Skol]

I'm not sure about the demographics of the Quebec vote or support for independence but when you look at support in Scotland for the union it is literally dying out (i know that's a crass analogy) however the only age group that are staunch unionists is the oldest one while support for independence gets stronger as you go down the age groups. It's unstoppable now and just a matter of when, not if.

The post from OzyHibs 2 mins before you suggests its still very tight

[JeMeSouviens]

The post from OzyHibs 2 mins before you suggests its still very tight

:agree:

I'm optimistic, but Yes could easily lose a ref held now. And who knows what could happen in the years it would take to get a 3rd one?

[Skol]

:agree:

I'm optimistic, but Yes could easily lose a ref held now. And who knows what could happen in the years it would take to get a 3rd one?

I agree and this is why I think Sturgeon is delaying until she feels a win is certain. I dont believe if she had a majority of MSPs but less than or around 50% of the vote on 7th May that she would seek a referendum as a 2nd defeat would put an end to the Independence debate for a long time.

I actually think Boris should hold a referendum asap after 6th May to get this decided one way or the other.

[degenerated]

The post from OzyHibs 2 mins before you suggests its still very tight

I'm not disputing that, merely point out that as each year goes by the staunchest supporters of the union drop off the electoral roll (either through age or in the case of rangers fans Darwinism) and are replaced by a younger age group who according to available statistics are more pro independence. Thus my assertion that it's only a matter of time.

[Smartie]

Personally I still read here but I rarely post. I have typed a number of posts and have decided not to submit.

I feel that its not really worthwhile as both points of view are so entrenched and its nigh on impossible to have a debate.

I'd encourage you to just hit the button and post them, as I find your pro-union postings and general questioning on here to be worthwhile.

Obviously I disagree with your viewpoint but I find the pro-union posters on here to be pretty good and I don't think the standard of debate is all that bad.

Positions are fairly entrenched and tankers take a long time to turn, but many people are prepared to question their own side. Not all, but many are.

[CropleyWasGod]

I agree and this is why I think Sturgeon is delaying until she feels a win is certain. I dont believe if she had a majority of MSPs but less than or around 50% of the vote on 7th May that she would seek a referendum as a 2nd defeat would put an end to the Independence debate for a long time.

I actually think Boris should hold a referendum asap after 6th May to get this decided one way or the other.

In hindsight, he probably should have granted permission the first time he was asked, with the caveat "You must hold it within 6 months". Even without COVID, that would probably have done the trick.

[lapsedhibee]

I actually think Boris should hold a referendum asap after 6th May to get this decided one way or the other.

What would be his slogan though? Get The Union Done? :dunno:

[greenlex]

What would be his slogan though? Get The Union Done? :dunno:
Too many words. Three is the magic number.

[weecounty hibby]

Too many words. Three is the magic number.

"Keep colonies going"? "Keep Jocks down"? "Know your place"? They will come up with something snappy

[greenlex]

"Keep colonies going"? "Keep Jocks down"? "Know your place"? They will come up with something snappy
Probably ‘Empire strikes back’.

[weecounty hibby]

Probably ‘Empire strikes back’.

Wish I'd thought of that one!!

[Keith_M]

Too many words. Three is the magic number.


"Uhm... Ah... Uhm"

[Callyballybe]

I was reading the below articles, and I've a couple of questions around the differences in taxation between the UK and Scottish Governments.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-56675132

https://fraserofallander.org/number-of-taxpayers-subject-to-scottish-higher-rate-of-tax-set-to-top-550000-in-the-next-parliament/

I knew that income tax powers had been devolved, however I thought this was 'partially devolved' in so much that a slight change in income tax rates was allowed in order to work as a 'top up' to the Scottish Government budget. However, following the quote below from the second article it seems it might be more significant than that.

"Of course, UK income tax policy does not apply in Scotland. The Scottish Government has the powers to set all rates and bands for Scottish Income tax. Furthermore, although the setting of the Personal Allowance is technically reserved to Westminster, the Scottish Government could, if it wanted, set a higher effective tax-free amount of income tax by creating a zero-rate band of income tax in Scotland.

So, in principle, when it comes to Scottish income tax policy in the next parliament, anything is possible. But in reality, the UK policy will frame the scope for manoeuvre."

I understand the second part of that quote states that this is 'in principle', but if indeed the Scottish Government already has significant devolved Income and Business Rates Tax Powers, and with regards to the topic of attracting international/external investment if we were to become independent, what more could the Scottish Government do that it couldn't essentially do already?

Is the argument purely down to being able to control corporation tax as well? As far as I'm aware, controlling business rates gives the current devolved government the power to attract manufacturing plants/financial services/offices etc here with for example, the promise of a business rates tax freeze for 2/3/5/10 (or longer) years. (I understand I may be simplifying things here, but I hope the jist of my argument comes through.)

Of course the relative benefits of lowering corp tax can be seen in the likes of Ireland, where many of the tech companies have their European/International HQs in turn supplying lots of highly paid roles. However what is also obvious to most is the significant differences living standards felt by many of the people living there.

I'm not necessarily saying that I would want an independent Scotland to copy this particular set up (far from it) but attracting international investment of some capacity I'm assuming would be a priority none the less. In effect, what do we need to make this happen (attracting foreign investment) that we can't already do now?

[Skol]

What would be his slogan though? Get The Union Done? :dunno:

Gonnae no daeit

[CropleyWasGod]

I was reading the below articles, and I've a couple of questions around the differences in taxation between the UK and Scottish Governments.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-56675132

https://fraserofallander.org/number-of-taxpayers-subject-to-scottish-higher-rate-of-tax-set-to-top-550000-in-the-next-parliament/

I knew that income tax powers had been devolved, however I thought this was 'partially devolved' in so much that a slight change in income tax rates was allowed in order to work as a 'top up' to the Scottish Government budget. However, following the quote below from the second article it seems it might be more significant than that.

"Of course, UK income tax policy does not apply in Scotland. The Scottish Government has the powers to set all rates and bands for Scottish Income tax. Furthermore, although the setting of the Personal Allowance is technically reserved to Westminster, the Scottish Government could, if it wanted, set a higher effective tax-free amount of income tax by creating a zero-rate band of income tax in Scotland.

So, in principle, when it comes to Scottish income tax policy in the next parliament, anything is possible. But in reality, the UK policy will frame the scope for manoeuvre."

I understand the second part of that quote states that this is 'in principle', but if indeed the Scottish Government already has significant devolved Income and Business Rates Tax Powers, and with regards to the topic of attracting international/external investment if we were to become independent, what more could the Scottish Government do that it couldn't essentially do already?

Is the argument purely down to being able to control corporation tax as well? As far as I'm aware, controlling business rates gives the current devolved government the power to attract manufacturing plants/financial services/offices etc here with for example, the promise of a business rates tax freeze for 2/3/5/10 (or longer) years. (I understand I may be simplifying things here, but I hope the jist of my argument comes through.)

Of course the relative benefits of lowering corp tax can be seen in the likes of Ireland, where many of the tech companies have their European/International HQs in turn supplying lots of highly paid roles. However what is also obvious to most is the significant differences living standards felt by many of the people living there.

I'm not necessarily saying that I would want an independent Scotland to copy this particular set up (far from it) but attracting international investment of some capacity I'm assuming would be a priority none the less. In effect, what do we need to make this happen (attracting foreign investment) that we can't already do now?

It's also about National Insurance and VAT.

E'ers NI could be reduced from the current UK level, to give us a competitive edge.

VAT could also be, albeit that may not be wise in the long-term if we have aspirations to join the EU.

There would also be scope for tax "sweetheart deals" with potential investors.

[JeMeSouviens]

I was reading the below articles, and I've a couple of questions around the differences in taxation between the UK and Scottish Governments.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-56675132

https://fraserofallander.org/number-of-taxpayers-subject-to-scottish-higher-rate-of-tax-set-to-top-550000-in-the-next-parliament/

I knew that income tax powers had been devolved, however I thought this was 'partially devolved' in so much that a slight change in income tax rates was allowed in order to work as a 'top up' to the Scottish Government budget. However, following the quote below from the second article it seems it might be more significant than that.

"Of course, UK income tax policy does not apply in Scotland. The Scottish Government has the powers to set all rates and bands for Scottish Income tax. Furthermore, although the setting of the Personal Allowance is technically reserved to Westminster, the Scottish Government could, if it wanted, set a higher effective tax-free amount of income tax by creating a zero-rate band of income tax in Scotland.

So, in principle, when it comes to Scottish income tax policy in the next parliament, anything is possible. But in reality, the UK policy will frame the scope for manoeuvre."

I understand the second part of that quote states that this is 'in principle', but if indeed the Scottish Government already has significant devolved Income and Business Rates Tax Powers, and with regards to the topic of attracting international/external investment if we were to become independent, what more could the Scottish Government do that it couldn't essentially do already?

Is the argument purely down to being able to control corporation tax as well? As far as I'm aware, controlling business rates gives the current devolved government the power to attract manufacturing plants/financial services/offices etc here with for example, the promise of a business rates tax freeze for 2/3/5/10 (or longer) years. (I understand I may be simplifying things here, but I hope the jist of my argument comes through.)

Of course the relative benefits of lowering corp tax can be seen in the likes of Ireland, where many of the tech companies have their European/International HQs in turn supplying lots of highly paid roles. However what is also obvious to most is the significant differences living standards felt by many of the people living there.

I'm not necessarily saying that I would want an independent Scotland to copy this particular set up (far from it) but attracting international investment of some capacity I'm assuming would be a priority none the less. In effect, what do we need to make this happen (attracting foreign investment) that we can't already do now?

Business rates are counted as a property tax. Not all income tax is devolved: tax on earnings is, tax on savings and dividends isn't.

https://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/images/election2017_images/bns/bn198_fig2.jpg


In terms of attracting investment, the traditional thing to do worldwide is bribe companies to come. :greengrin So tax breaks, grants etc.

Aside from that, the best thing we could to attract inward investment is get back in the European single market. We might attract a significant amount of relocation from rUK as well, if we're sharpish about it.

It would also be handy to have an immigration policy that would help attract lots of good people. We have a big demographic problem with an ageing, unhealthy population. Lots of young taxpayers would definitely help with that.

[Bristolhibby]

What would be his slogan though? Get The Union Done? :dunno:

Yes we Can’t.

J

[DaveF]

I'm not disputing that, merely point out that as each year goes by the staunchest supporters of the union drop off the electoral roll (either through age or in the case of rangers fans Darwinism) and are replaced by a younger age group who according to available statistics are more pro independence. Thus my assertion that it's only a matter of time.

3 newly qualified yes voters in my house since the last ref.

[degenerated]

3 newly qualified yes voters in my house since the last ref.It's absolutely inevitable, the only demographic that favours the current situation is the old folk. This is from last year but it won't have changed that much. https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210415/2de5393a979959a01b75c0c5ee9acf12.jpg

Sent from my CPH2009 using Tapatalk

[Colr]

On Today on R4 just now but, did I hear right? Did they just say The Proclaimers are from Leith? I mean, we’d be glad to have them but it’s not quite correct.

[lapsedhibee]

On Today on R4 just now but, did I hear right? Did they just say The Proclaimers are from Leith? I mean, we’d be glad to have them but it’s not quite correct.

Born in Leith?

[Peevemor]

It's absolutely inevitable, the only demographic that favours the current situation is the old folk. This is from last year but it won't have changed that much.
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210415/2de5393a979959a01b75c0c5ee9acf12.jpg

Sent from my CPH2009 using Tapatalk

Only a year and a bit to go before I have to change my opinion.

[Smartie]

It's absolutely inevitable, the only demographic that favours the current situation is the old folk. This is from last year but it won't have changed that much. https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210415/2de5393a979959a01b75c0c5ee9acf12.jpg

Sent from my CPH2009 using Tapatalk

The female/ male one surprises me tbh.

I'd have thought it would be the other way round - females being more cautious, males being more prepared to take the risk.

Maybe females have quite sensibly realised earlier that the greater risk lies with tethering your future to the dwindling English empire and cutting yourself off from Europe than the alternative?

Also funny regarding the demographic of this site - which I would say is overwhelmingly male and in favour of independence. Or is it just that the unionists (many of whom don't appreciate being called such) are quieter in the face of what appears to be a larger and noisier pro-independence consensus?

[degenerated]

The female/ male one surprises me tbh.

I'd have thought it would be the other way round - females being more cautious, males being more prepared to take the risk.

Maybe females have quite sensibly realised earlier that the greater risk lies with tethering your future to the dwindling English empire and cutting yourself off from Europe than the alternative?

Also funny regarding the demographic of this site - which I would say is overwhelmingly male and in favour of independence. Or is it just that the unionists (many of whom don't appreciate being called such) are quieter in the face of what appears to be a larger and noisier pro-independence consensus?The female numbers must have shifted from previous surveys, in 2014 it was the other way round.




Sent from my CPH2009 using Tapatalk

[Ozyhibby]

The female numbers must have shifted from previous surveys, in 2014 it was the other way round.




Sent from my CPH2009 using Tapatalk

Probably the positive effect of having Sturgeon in charge.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Ozyhibby]

https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/apr/14/boris-johnson-is-telling-scotland-that-the-union-is-no-longer-based-on-consent?__twitter_impression=true


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[cabbageandribs1875]

https://scontent.fman1-2.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.6435-9/174362715_1664975960356716_7001269676388067463_n.j pg?_nc_cat=105&ccb=1-3&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_ohc=nbROLjJCeJIAX_W3JCR&_nc_ht=scontent.fman1-2.fna&oh=c6762dd0d1f3705fa4c1a7a99bf6e1b9&oe=609DF53F

[Skol]

It's absolutely inevitable, the only demographic that favours the current situation is the old folk. This is from last year but it won't have changed that much. https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210415/2de5393a979959a01b75c0c5ee9acf12.jpg

Sent from my CPH2009 using Tapatalk

Young folk get older and sometimes change their views over time

[Hibrandenburg]

https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/apr/14/boris-johnson-is-telling-scotland-that-the-union-is-no-longer-based-on-consent?__twitter_impression=true


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

The Union has never been about partnership and consent, it has always been merely an illusion of partnership and consent.

[Ozyhibby]

Young folk get older and sometimes change their views over time

That is true with the shift from left to right on the political spectrum but I’m not convinced that the same dynamic is there for the union.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Callyballybe]

It's also about National Insurance and VAT.

E'ers NI could be reduced from the current UK level, to give us a competitive edge.

VAT could also be, albeit that may not be wise in the long-term if we have aspirations to join the EU.

There would also be scope for tax "sweetheart deals" with potential investors.


Business rates are counted as a property tax. Not all income tax is devolved: tax on earnings is, tax on savings and dividends isn't.

https://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/images/election2017_images/bns/bn198_fig2.jpg


In terms of attracting investment, the traditional thing to do worldwide is bribe companies to come. :greengrin So tax breaks, grants etc.

Aside from that, the best thing we could to attract inward investment is get back in the European single market. We might attract a significant amount of relocation from rUK as well, if we're sharpish about it.

It would also be handy to have an immigration policy that would help attract lots of good people. We have a big demographic problem with an ageing, unhealthy population. Lots of young taxpayers would definitely help with that.

Thanks both for the replies, much appreciated. :aok:

[degenerated]

Young folk get older and sometimes change their views over timeWishful thinking there. I suspect deep down you know the Union is finished.

There was an opportunity to save it but pig headed arrogance from the Tories in Westminster with EVEL, Brexit and now the internal market bill have killed it off.

The Scottish regional branches of the 3 unionist parties could have done more to help save the union during the Smith commission but decided to reject virtually every proposal and spend every waking moment since telling Scots how much of ****hole Scotland is and how the best we can hope for is a future of being a mendicant region sucking on the tit of our benevolent neighbours.

Nah, they blew it big time.

Sent from my CPH2009 using Tapatalk

[Skol]

Wishful thinking there. I suspect deep down you know the Union is finished.

There was an opportunity to save it but pig headed arrogance from the Tories in Westminster with EVEL, Brexit and now the internal market bill have killed it off.

The Scottish regional branches of the 3 unionist parties could have done more to help save the union during the Smith commission but decided to reject virtually every proposal and spend every waking moment since telling Scots how much of ****hole Scotland is and how the best we can hope for is a future of being a mendicant region sucking on the tit of our benevolent neighbours.

Nah, they blew it big time.

Sent from my CPH2009 using Tapatalk

I don’t think independence is a done deal yet. I do though agree that the conservatives seem to make independence more likely with each decision they make

It was asked yesterday (maybe another thread) why people who oppose independence don’t post much. I think your references to Scottish branches etc in your third paragraph back up my point that it’s not really possible to have a reasoned debate.

While there are reasons that make independence appealing there are also reasons that it may not be the best solution. This needs to be examined honestly from both sides.

[Steven79]

I don’t think independence is a done deal yet. I do though agree that the conservatives seem to make independence more likely with each decision they make

It was asked yesterday (maybe another thread) why people who oppose independence don’t post much. I think your references to Scottish branches etc in your third paragraph back up my point that it’s not really possible to have a reasoned debate.

While there are reasons that make independence appealing there are also reasons that it may not be the best solution. This needs to be examined honestly from both sides.Are they not branch offices of English parties in Scotland?

Their whole reason for being is to keep Scotland under control from London.

Sent from my SM-G960F using Tapatalk

[Skol]

Are they not branch offices of English parties in Scotland?

Their whole reason for being is to keep Scotland under control from London.

Sent from my SM-G960F using Tapatalk

I don't believe that is correct but its the way the SNP like to paint them. Certainly the 'whole reason for being.....' is factually incorrect although there could be an argument (albeit petty) that they are branch offices.

[oneone73]

I don't believe that is correct but its the way the SNP like to paint them. Certainly the 'whole reason for being.....' is factually incorrect although there could be an argument (albeit petty) that they are branch offices.

There is, for example, no such thing as the Scottish Labour Party. Never been registered as an independent entity. It is, literally, the Scottish branch of the UK Labour Party, no matter what it likes to pretend its line on Trident nort of the Border to be.

[Skol]

There is, for example, no such thing as the Scottish Labour Party. Never been registered as an independent entity. It is, literally, the Scottish branch of the UK Labour Party, no matter what it likes to pretend its line on Trident nort of the Border to be.

As I said, it suits the SNP to make the branch office claim and I see that as being pretty petty.

Clearly they are part of the same labour party and on things like Trident which is not devolved it is hard to see how or even why there would be different policies. If they wanted to change party policy they would influence from within, not have a different policy.

[Moulin Yarns]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_Labour_Party_(disambiguation)

😉

[Peevemor]

As I said, it suits the SNP to make the branch office claim and I see that as being pretty petty.

Clearly they are part of the same labour party and on things like Trident which is not devolved it is hard to see how or even why there would be different policies. If they wanted to change party policy they would influence from within, not have a different policy.

The biggest fiasco was the voting (or not) on Brexit bills in Westminster, where the Scottish labour MPs did anything but the will of their constituents.

I firmly belive that Labour would/could be far stonger in Scotland if they broke away from the main party.

[Skol]

The biggest fiasco was the voting (or not) on Brexit bills in Westminster, where the Scottish labour MPs did anything but the will of their constituents.

I firmly belive that Labour would/could be far stonger in Scotland if they broke away from the main party.

You mean Ian Murray ? I think he is the only Labour MP from Scotland?

[Ozyhibby]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-29765415


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Peevemor]

You mean Ian Murray ? I think he is the only Labour MP from Scotland?

Only since December 2019. They had 7 before that.

[Bristolhibby]

The biggest fiasco was the voting (or not) on Brexit bills in Westminster, where the Scottish labour MPs did anything but the will of their constituents.

I firmly belive that Labour would/could be far stonger in Scotland if they broke away from the main party.

And the Scottish Tory MPs. No danger they were breaking the whip.

J

[Ozyhibby]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210416/acc482b811cb583fa771fb15bca7f715.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210416/7e46662c9479b047b817b336b86eef7e.jpg

Must take a massive lack of self respect to be a unionist these days.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Hiber-nation]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210416/acc482b811cb583fa771fb15bca7f715.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210416/7e46662c9479b047b817b336b86eef7e.jpg

Must take a massive lack of self respect to be a unionist these days.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I wish I'd had that front page handy when my dog was sick on the floor yesterday.

[Ozyhibby]

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2021/04/should-boris-johnson-call-snap-scottish-independence-referendum


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[lapsedhibee]

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2021/04/should-boris-johnson-call-snap-scottish-independence-referendum


Don't see how Johnson can call for IndyRef2 until he has worked out who to blame if the result goes the wrong way for him. Not Brussels again, shirley?

[Jack]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210416/acc482b811cb583fa771fb15bca7f715.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210416/7e46662c9479b047b817b336b86eef7e.jpg

Must take a massive lack of self respect to be a unionist these days.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I think the Scottish Government intending to increase NHS spending by such an huge amount while the UK government has already expressed its intent to rein in devolved NHS powers through the Internal Market Bill is going to lead to a super collision.

The SNP are loading their guns while Westminsters sights remain firmly aimed at their feet!

Vote for independence or lose your NHS!

[Viva_Palmeiras]

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/drowning-the-sorrows-of-scotlands-virulent-nationalism/amp?__twitter_impression=true

Hard to know where to start?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Is this the same author who wrote a piece in the EEN/Scotsman and drew on something written (in the Bounce - which I think turned out to be an April Fools from a while back - but was making false claims ?)

[Ozyhibby]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/apr/17/scotland-norway-denmark-independent?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_gu&utm_medium&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1618644634


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Colr]

Some people conflating royal interests and independence in SM.

Bit odd as I don’t recall ditching the monarchy is SNP policy.

Republican, myself right enough!

[cabbageandribs1875]

https://scontent.fman1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.6435-9/176140841_10158454792183759_1274514777321716438_n. jpg?_nc_cat=109&ccb=1-3&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=RiM6Qr5uinwAX9osCWF&_nc_ht=scontent.fman1-1.fna&oh=cce8297d7d39a6489cc9916ff93d197b&oe=60A3E9AA


British Labour wanted to screw over our country as well, Blue/Red =no difference, how any Scot can vote for either of them is utterly baffling :agree: indeed Tory Blair and Dewar did just that on the very day of Holyrood opening

[cabbageandribs1875]

24596



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GfbfldSrJ-0

[degenerated]

24596



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GfbfldSrJ-0I'm sure I read that would get overturned in the event of independence.

Sent from my CPH2009 using Tapatalk

[JeMeSouviens]

I'm sure I read that would get overturned in the event of independence.

Sent from my CPH2009 using Tapatalk

Yes, that's right. There is established international law based on who has the closest coastline to the asset, I think.

But it makes next to no difference now regarding oil, afaik. I don't think he's right about GERS, I think they use a North Sea revenue division based on an estimate of what would fall where after an Indy settlement.

I think the practical difference it makes now is whose law applies in that area (Scots or English) with regard to fisheries etc. Since it's an internal carve up of UK waters rather than an international boundary, the UK gov can draw the line anywhere it likes.

[CloudSquall]

I remember Alan Bissett asking Ruth Davidson on a morning TV debate in the run up to the first referendum about the McCrone Report and her only response was "eh....eh.....eh.....eh....well I prefer to focus on the here and now".



I'd like Ross and co to be challenged on this, where has the oil wealth went? Why has Norway been able to do what it has?

[ronaldo7]

The STUC congress today backed a motion stating that Holyrood should have the power to hold a referendum on Scotland’s future, if there is a pro-indy majority in Parliament after the May election.

Getting our ducks all lined up for Indyref2

:aok:

[JeMeSouviens]

The STUC congress today backed a motion stating that Holyrood should have the power to hold a referendum on Scotland’s future, if there is a pro-indy majority in Parliament after the May election.

Getting our ducks all lined up for Indyref2

:aok:

Strong stuff. :aok:


Congress believes that the right to hold a Referendum should lie with the Scottish Parliament as elected by its people.
Congress calls on the General Council to be proactive in ensuring this right to self-determination is upheld, including the holding of a Referendum on Independence, with or without the consent of the UK Government.

[Santa Cruz]

Strong stuff. :aok:

I thought they were keen on a third choice on the ballot paper, i.e. devo max, did I get that wrong?

[The Harp Awakes]

The STUC congress today backed a motion stating that Holyrood should have the power to hold a referendum on Scotland’s future, if there is a pro-indy majority in Parliament after the May election.

Getting our ducks all lined up for Indyref2

:aok:

If there is a an SNP majority Government after the May 6 elections, the Westminster Government's position of blocking indyref2 is unsustainable (best outcome for indy supporters).

If there is pro independence coalition Government after the May 6 elections, the Westminster Government's position of blocking indyref2 is also unsustainable, but they may try to block it for a short period of time (2nd best ooutcome for indy supporters).

If there is an SNP minority Government but together with the Greens/Alba there is a pro independence 'majority' in Holyrood after the May 6 elections, the Westminster Government may try to hold their position in denying indyref2 for longer, but it won't hold (3rd best outcome for indy supporters).

Given any scenario other than the above 3 outcomes is unlikely, Westminster's best option to scupper independence may be to agree to indyref2 being held early, when the pandemic is still biting so increasing the likelihood of a No vote.

[SHODAN]

If there is a an SNP majority Government after the May 6 elections, the Westminster Government's position of blocking indyref2 is unsustainable (best outcome for indy supporters).

If there is pro independence coalition Government after the May 6 elections, the Westminster Government's position of blocking indyref2 is also unsustainable, but they may try to block it for a short period of time (2nd best ooutcome for indy supporters).

If there is an SNP minority Government but together with the Greens/Alba there is a pro independence 'majority' in Holyrood after the May 6 elections, the Westminster Government may try to hold their position in denying indyref2 for longer, but it won't hold (3rd best outcome for indy supporters).

Given any scenario other than the above 3 outcomes is unlikely, Westminster's best option to scupper independence may be to agree to indyref2 being held early, when the pandemic is still biting so increasing the likelihood of a No vote.

The likelihood of a pro-union majority is almost non-existent at this point. Still, I'd like to have an SNP majority to force it as soon as possible.

[Ozyhibby]

The likelihood of a pro-union majority is almost non-existent at this point. Still, I'd like to have an SNP majority to force it as soon as possible.

I’d like an SNP majority but not as keen as ASAP. Want to make sure we win. In favour of putting in the request quickly in the hope of getting a refusal from Johnson followed by lengthy court battles where unionists take the Scottish people to court and have to stand in front of a judge and explain why.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Callyballybe]

I'd like to ask people's thoughts on the SNP 1 & 2, or SNP 1 Green 2 scenario.

There was a post (I think it was on this thread) a while ago regarding the difference in the last election if more SNP supporters had given their 2nd vote to the Greens. Looked as though it would have had a small impact on the SNP's number of seats, but would have drastically increased the Greens seats.

The main point being of course a simple SNP majority is the ideal result for pushing for a 2nd referendum. But actually, do you think it would be useful to have, what looked like, quite a significant uptake in Greens list seats if your 2nd vote went to them?

Curious to see where others are with this.

[Ozyhibby]

I'd like to ask people's thoughts on the SNP 1 & 2, or SNP 1 Green 2 scenario.

There was a post (I think it was on this thread) a while ago regarding the difference in the last election if more SNP supporters had given their 2nd vote to the Greens. Looked as though it would have had a small impact on the SNP's number of seats, but would have drastically increased the Greens seats.

The main point being of course a simple SNP majority is the ideal result for pushing for a 2nd referendum. But actually, do you think it would be useful to have, what looked like, quite a significant uptake in Greens list seats if your 2nd vote went to them?

Curious to see where others are with this.

Depends where you live? In Lothian I think it’s best to go SNP 1 and Green 2. The SNP never managed to get any list seats in Lothian in either 2011 or 2016. Given that polling for the SNP is higher just now than either of those years then it’s fair to say that it’s likely to be the same this year. So if you want to keep a Tory out, give your list vote to the Greens.
In the borders and Higland, both votes SNP is the way to go because they are weaker in the constituency vote there.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Stick]

I'd like to ask people's thoughts on the SNP 1 & 2, or SNP 1 Green 2 scenario.

There was a post (I think it was on this thread) a while ago regarding the difference in the last election if more SNP supporters had given their 2nd vote to the Greens. Looked as though it would have had a small impact on the SNP's number of seats, but would have drastically increased the Greens seats.

The main point being of course a simple SNP majority is the ideal result for pushing for a 2nd referendum. But actually, do you think it would be useful to have, what looked like, quite a significant uptake in Greens list seats if your 2nd vote went to them?

Curious to see where others are with this.



If you go to - https://scotlandwhatif.weebly.com you can see all the figure with sources. It also shows the results if the second votes go to Alba instead of the greens. Also what would happen if the unionist parties all gave their second votes to the Tories.

This is the post you are referring to:-

scotlandwhatif.weebly.com

Based on the 2016 vote, the results in Lothian were:-

Con 4 seats total
Lab 3 seats total
Lib Dem 1 seat total
Snp 6 seats total
Greens 2 seats total

So for indi 8 seats, remain 8 seats


If all snp voters gave their second vote to the greens the results would have been:-

Con 2 seats total
Lab 2 seats total
Lib Dem 1 seat total
Snp 6 seats total
Greens 5 seats total

So for indi 11 seats, remain 5 seats

—————————


Based on the 2016 vote, the results in central Scotland were:-

Con 3 seats total
Lab 4 seats total
Lib Dem 0 seat total
Snp 9 seats total
Greens 0 seats total

So for indi 9 seats, remain 7 seats


If all snp voters gave their second vote to the greens the results would have been:-

Con 1 seat total
Lab 2 seats total
Lib Dem 0 seat total
Snp 9 seats total
Greens 4 seats total

So for indi 13 seats, remain 3 seats

—————————


Based on the 2016 vote, the results in Glasgow were:-

Con 2 seats total
Lab 4 seats total
Lib Dem 0 seat total
Snp 9 seats total
Greens 1 seats total

So for indi 10 seats, remain 6 seats


If all snp voters gave their second vote to the greens the results would have been:-

Con 1 seat total
Lab 2 seats total
Lib Dem 0 seat total
Snp 9 seats total
Greens 4 seats total

So for indi 13 seats, remain 3 seats

——————————

Based on the 2016 vote, the results in Highlands and Islands were:-

Con 3seats total
Lab 2seats total
Lib Dem 2seat total
Snp 7seats total
Greens 1 seats total

So for indi 8 seats, remain 7seats


If all snp voters gave their second vote to the greens the results would have been:-

Con 2. seat total
Lab 1seats total
Lib Dem 2 seat total
Snp 6 seats total
Greens 4 seats total

So for indi 10 seats, remain 5 seats

——————————

Based on the 2016 vote, the results in Mid Scotland and Fife were:-

Con 4seats total
Lab 2 seats total
Lib Dem 1 seat total
Snp 8 seats total
Greens 1 seats total

So for indi 9 seats, remain 7 seats


If all snp voters gave their second vote to the greens the results would have been:-

Con 2 seat total
Lab 1 seats total
Lib Dem 1 seat total
Snp 8 seats total
Greens 4 seats total

So for indi 12 seats, remain 4 seats

———————

Based on the 2016 vote, the results in North East Scotland were:-

Con 5 seats total
Lab 2 seats total
Lib Dem 1 seat total
Snp 9 seats total
Greens 0 seats total

So for indi 9 seats, remain 8 seats



If all snp voters gave their second vote to the greens the results would have been:-

Con 2 seat total
Lab 1 seats total
Lib Dem 0 seat total
Snp 9 seats total
Greens 5 seats total

So for indi 14 seats, remain 3 seats

——————————


Based on the 2016 vote, the results in South Scotland were:-

Con 6 seats total
Lab 3 seats total
Lib Dem 0 seat total
Snp 7 seats total
Greens 0 seats total

So for indi 7 seats, remain 9 seats


If all snp voters gave their second vote to the greens the results would have been:-

Con 4 seats total
Lab 2 seats total
Lib Dem 0 seat total
Snp 4 seats total
Greens 6 seats total

So for indi 10 seats, remain 6 seats

—————-


Based on the 2016 vote, the results in West Scotland were:-

Con 4 seats total
Lab 4 seats total
Lib Dem 0 seat total
Snp 8 seats total
Greens 1 seats total

So for indi 9 seats, remain 8 seats


If all snp voters gave their second vote to the greens the results would have been:-

Con 2 seat total
Lab 2 seats total
Lib Dem 0 seat total
Snp 8 seats total
Greens 5 seats total

So for indi 13 seats, remain 4 seats

——————————————————————-

Scotland totals

At 2016
Con 31
Lab 24
Lib Dem 5
SNP 63
Greens 6

If second snp vote to Greens the totals would have been
Con 16
Lab 13
Lib Dem’s 4
SNP 59
Greens 37

[Callyballybe]

If you go to - https://scotlandwhatif.weebly.com you can see all the figure with sources. It also shows the results if the second votes go to Alba instead of the greens. Also what would happen if the unionist parties all gave their second votes to the Tories.

This is the post you are referring to:-

scotlandwhatif.weebly.com

Based on the 2016 vote, the results in Lothian were:-

Con 4 seats total
Lab 3 seats total
Lib Dem 1 seat total
Snp 6 seats total
Greens 2 seats total

So for indi 8 seats, remain 8 seats


If all snp voters gave their second vote to the greens the results would have been:-

Con 2 seats total
Lab 2 seats total
Lib Dem 1 seat total
Snp 6 seats total
Greens 5 seats total

So for indi 11 seats, remain 5 seats

—————————


Based on the 2016 vote, the results in central Scotland were:-

Con 3 seats total
Lab 4 seats total
Lib Dem 0 seat total
Snp 9 seats total
Greens 0 seats total

So for indi 9 seats, remain 7 seats


If all snp voters gave their second vote to the greens the results would have been:-

Con 1 seat total
Lab 2 seats total
Lib Dem 0 seat total
Snp 9 seats total
Greens 4 seats total

So for indi 13 seats, remain 3 seats

—————————


Based on the 2016 vote, the results in Glasgow were:-

Con 2 seats total
Lab 4 seats total
Lib Dem 0 seat total
Snp 9 seats total
Greens 1 seats total

So for indi 10 seats, remain 6 seats


If all snp voters gave their second vote to the greens the results would have been:-

Con 1 seat total
Lab 2 seats total
Lib Dem 0 seat total
Snp 9 seats total
Greens 4 seats total

So for indi 13 seats, remain 3 seats

——————————

Based on the 2016 vote, the results in Highlands and Islands were:-

Con 3seats total
Lab 2seats total
Lib Dem 2seat total
Snp 7seats total
Greens 1 seats total

So for indi 8 seats, remain 7seats


If all snp voters gave their second vote to the greens the results would have been:-

Con 2. seat total
Lab 1seats total
Lib Dem 2 seat total
Snp 6 seats total
Greens 4 seats total

So for indi 10 seats, remain 5 seats

——————————

Based on the 2016 vote, the results in Mid Scotland and Fife were:-

Con 4seats total
Lab 2 seats total
Lib Dem 1 seat total
Snp 8 seats total
Greens 1 seats total

So for indi 9 seats, remain 7 seats


If all snp voters gave their second vote to the greens the results would have been:-

Con 2 seat total
Lab 1 seats total
Lib Dem 1 seat total
Snp 8 seats total
Greens 4 seats total

So for indi 12 seats, remain 4 seats

———————

Based on the 2016 vote, the results in North East Scotland were:-

Con 5 seats total
Lab 2 seats total
Lib Dem 1 seat total
Snp 9 seats total
Greens 0 seats total

So for indi 9 seats, remain 8 seats



If all snp voters gave their second vote to the greens the results would have been:-

Con 2 seat total
Lab 1 seats total
Lib Dem 0 seat total
Snp 9 seats total
Greens 5 seats total

So for indi 14 seats, remain 3 seats

——————————


Based on the 2016 vote, the results in South Scotland were:-

Con 6 seats total
Lab 3 seats total
Lib Dem 0 seat total
Snp 7 seats total
Greens 0 seats total

So for indi 7 seats, remain 9 seats


If all snp voters gave their second vote to the greens the results would have been:-

Con 4 seats total
Lab 2 seats total
Lib Dem 0 seat total
Snp 4 seats total
Greens 6 seats total

So for indi 10 seats, remain 6 seats

—————-


Based on the 2016 vote, the results in West Scotland were:-

Con 4 seats total
Lab 4 seats total
Lib Dem 0 seat total
Snp 8 seats total
Greens 1 seats total

So for indi 9 seats, remain 8 seats


If all snp voters gave their second vote to the greens the results would have been:-

Con 2 seat total
Lab 2 seats total
Lib Dem 0 seat total
Snp 8 seats total
Greens 5 seats total

So for indi 13 seats, remain 4 seats

——————————————————————-

Scotland totals

At 2016
Con 31
Lab 24
Lib Dem 5
SNP 63
Greens 6

If second snp vote to Greens the totals would have been
Con 16
Lab 13
Lib Dem’s 4
SNP 59
Greens 37

Fantastic - Much appreciated Stick. 👍

[cabbageandribs1875]

Is a quiet revolution edging Wales down the road to independence? | Welsh politics | The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/apr/25/is-a-quiet-revolution-edging-wales-down-the-road-to-independence?fbclid=IwAR0eP6LmtcphDhrSv6HdF31rN57G 29jUpcDy1pJy8enzPKgn5z3-W8D-CTI)


i still think the welsh are a couple of years away but who knows with the corrupt Tories in government for another decade, stay strong Boris, stay strong, you're doing a grand job :wink:

Is a quiet revolution edging Wales down the road to independence?

[Ozyhibby]

Is a quiet revolution edging Wales down the road to independence? | Welsh politics | The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/apr/25/is-a-quiet-revolution-edging-wales-down-the-road-to-independence?fbclid=IwAR0eP6LmtcphDhrSv6HdF31rN57G 29jUpcDy1pJy8enzPKgn5z3-W8D-CTI)


i still think the welsh are a couple of years away but who knows with the corrupt Tories in government for another decade, stay strong Boris, stay strong, you're doing a grand job :wink:

Is a quiet revolution edging Wales down the road to independence?



I still think we are at least a couple of years away and Wales a good bit after that.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Betty Boop]

Patricia Gibson another SNP MP accused of sexual harassment.

[Skol]

Patricia Gibson another SNP MP accused of sexual harassment.

Is it the same accuser ? All sounds a bit odd

[Moulin Yarns]

Patricia Gibson another SNP MP accused of sexual harassment.

https://www.ardrossanherald.com/news/19248526.north-ayrshire-mp-patricia-gibson-denies-snp-sexual-harassment-claims/

She seems fairly confident that there is no case to answer. The investigation is an SNP internal investigation.

[JeMeSouviens]

It's all about the nukes for the UK establishment:

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/apr/26/trident-overseas-or-halted-scotland-independence

[lapsedhibee]

It's all about the nukes for the UK establishment:

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/apr/26/trident-overseas-or-halted-scotland-independence

Just pop them across to France, can't see any issues with that. :agree:

[Ozyhibby]

Just pop them across to France, can't see any issues with that. :agree:

I think more than likely they will stay in Scotland until they can find somewhere in England for them. And they will pay heavily for the privilege.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[JimBHibees]

I think more than likely they will stay in Scotland until they can find somewhere in England for them. And they will pay heavily for the privilege.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Sounds like a win win.

[JeMeSouviens]

Just pop them across to France, can't see any issues with that. :agree:

Reprenons Contrôle!

[James310]

https://twitter.com/C4Ciaran/status/1386997826522009600?s=19

Thought this might be interesting to some on the question of the border. Upsides and downsides as you would expect.

[The Modfather]

https://twitter.com/C4Ciaran/status/1386997826522009600?s=19

Thought this might be interesting to some on the question of the border. Upsides and downsides as you would expect.

Build a wall and get the English to pay for it! Not before my wife is frogmarched back over the border though 😀

[JeMeSouviens]

Build a wall and get the English to pay for it! Not before my wife is frogmarched back over the border though 😀

If iScotland is in the EU and also in the UK/Ireland/Channel Isles Common Travel Area, and there's no good reason to think either of those things wouldn't be a formality, then the situation would be exactly the same as Switzerland's borders. Cars/people cross freely and unhindered, trucks have to park up and show the relevant paperwork.

The EU are not going to make an NI style special case for us because we're not likely to blow each other up. So it is what it is and the Yes side just has to front up and say, yes, there are costs, but it will be worth it.

[Callyballybe]

I think more than likely they will stay in Scotland until they can find somewhere in England for them. And they will pay heavily for the privilege.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

This is my view as well.

I remember from the Ciaran Martin/Prof. Tom Devine podcast; Martin in particular discussing, if independence was to happen, the idea of how the 'divorce' negotiations would go. The idea that whichever party leaves a union holds certain cards, i.e. the ability to walk away from potential debt obligations, and the party/parties still within the union also holding certain cards, being able to dictate disadvantageous trade rules on the leaving party etc. With the summation of these advantages and disadvantages being bashed out into some sort of agreement that is feasible for both sides. (In theory anyway.)

I imagine if independence were to be gained, this exact thing would happen. Until the UK government had developed a site elsewhere (Falmouth or Portsmouth possibly) that could house the trident submarines, they would 'rent' the Faslane base.

Potential issue arising from such a plan however would be the more stringent anti-nuclear arm of the SNP (if indeed there is one, I'm guessing here) and the Greens, if they were involved in any negotiations on this.

[Keith_M]

I imagine if independence were to be gained, this exact thing would happen. Until the UK government had developed a site elsewhere (Falmouth or Portsmouth possibly) that could house the trident submarines, they would 'rent' the Faslane base.
...


As far as I'm aware, there is nowhere in England, Wales or Northern Ireland suitable for a deep water base, which is an essential requirement.

[Callyballybe]

As far as I'm aware, there is nowhere in England, Wales or Northern Ireland suitable for a deep water base, which is an essential requirement.

I'm sure I read somewhere that with significant investment (and time) there were a couple of places down south that could house them permanently. However, I've had a look and can't find anything on this now, so I may be mistaken!

[Radium]

I'm sure I read somewhere that with significant investment (and time) there were a couple of places down south that could house them permanently. However, I've had a look and can't find anything on this now, so I may be mistaken!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-28009977

Very similar to the Guardian article and shows how little has changed.

Sites are too shallow, heavily industrialised, too close to a population site, too far away from a deep water base or abroad.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[degenerated]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-28009977

Very similar to the Guardian article and shows how little has changed.

Sites are too shallow, heavily industrialised, too close to a population site, too far away from a deep water base or abroad.


Sent from my iPhone using TapatalkClose to a population site isn't a huge concern when it's Scotland's biggest city they're parked on the doorstep of.

Sent from my CPH2009 using Tapatalk

[Bristolhibby]

This is my view as well.

I remember from the Ciaran Martin/Prof. Tom Devine podcast; Martin in particular discussing, if independence was to happen, the idea of how the 'divorce' negotiations would go. The idea that whichever party leaves a union holds certain cards, i.e. the ability to walk away from potential debt obligations, and the party/parties still within the union also holding certain cards, being able to dictate disadvantageous trade rules on the leaving party etc. With the summation of these advantages and disadvantages being bashed out into some sort of agreement that is feasible for both sides. (In theory anyway.)

I imagine if independence were to be gained, this exact thing would happen. Until the UK government had developed a site elsewhere (Falmouth or Portsmouth possibly) that could house the trident submarines, they would 'rent' the Faslane base.

Potential issue arising from such a plan however would be the more stringent anti-nuclear arm of the SNP (if indeed there is one, I'm guessing here) and the Greens, if they were involved in any negotiations on this.

There’s definately going to be some real politic involved. Also don’t rule out a Sovereign Base of Faslane in the short to medium term. rUK will build its base. Where there’s a will there’s a way, even if it’s near a populous area.

It’s a massive card to hold in negotiations.

J

[Ozyhibby]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210428/6e3a35d4cdc683689b14614b248b685b.jpg
Great being part of the UK. [emoji849]


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Hibrandenburg]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210428/6e3a35d4cdc683689b14614b248b685b.jpg
Great being part of the UK. [emoji849]


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

https://fullfact.org/economy/does-uk-have-poorest-regions-northern-europe/

[weecounty hibby]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210428/6e3a35d4cdc683689b14614b248b685b.jpg
Great being part of the UK. [emoji849]


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

If you go back a few years most of those would have been in Scotland. So much for SNP not doing the day job. Still loads to work on but when you have a government in Scotland that is solely focused on Scotland then it makes a difference.

[Callum_62]

If you go back a few years most of those would have been in Scotland. So much for SNP not doing the day job. Still loads to work on but when you have a government in Scotland that is solely focused on Scotland then it makes a difference.Onlt coz we got bigger handouts

Apparently

Sent from my VOG-L29 using Tapatalk

[southfieldhibby]

As far as I'm aware, there is nowhere in England, Wales or Northern Ireland suitable for a deep water base, which is an essential requirement.

Cloud cover / hills also a significant factor. Nowhere in The UK offers what Faslane/Coulport can.

[Skol]

If you go back a few years most of those would have been in Scotland. So much for SNP not doing the day job. Still loads to work on but when you have a government in Scotland that is solely focused on Scotland then it makes a difference.

So its beneficial to remain in the UK with a devolved parliament and no need for Independence - yay

[Ozyhibby]

So its beneficial to remain in the UK with a devolved parliament and no need for Independence - yay

Let’s stick with the Tories - yay. [emoji849]


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[danhibees1875]

Let’s stick with the Tories - yay. [emoji849]


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Ach, they're not that bad. They provide an easy benchmark to be better than if nothing else. :greengrin

[Renfrew_Hibby]

I'm sure I read or heard that say 50 years ago average earnings in Wales was about double that of the Rep. Ireland whereas now Ireland is considerably ahead of Wales.
I still vividly being in Dublin in 1990 when I was 12 and even as a child I noticed the poverty with old Grannies and disabled beggers everywhere (not a Roma in sight back then).

Now I have a sister who lives in County Dublin and she and her kids have a great life and Irish society is now unrecognisable to that of 1990.

[Smartie]

So its beneficial to remain in the UK with a devolved parliament and no need for Independence - yay

Do you not have any concerns about the sustainability of the current situation though?

I'm often a bit torn when it comes to my appraisal of the past and of the current situation. From an "I'm alright Jack" point of view I don't feel like I've got that much to complain about, I accept that it is very much different for others.

My concern is the future. What we lose through being part of the union is made up for in subsidy. Some folk like that, I don't, some folk don't even agree that this is the case.

It's a subsidy based on not an awful lot of good faith and can be removed as quickly as you can say "renegotiate Barnett".

The opposite if independence is dependence, and I'm just too uncomfortable with the idea of a future where Scotland is dependent on an increasingly angry and resentful nation for handouts.

[weecounty hibby]

So its beneficial to remain in the UK with a devolved parliament and no need for Independence - yay
You missed the but about the Scottish government being focused on Scotland. if we ever get another unionist party in power they would be focused more in handing billions back like Labour under Jack McConnell did. Imagine a Scottish government who kept ALL of the tax revenue rather than the % handback from Westminster.

[Ozyhibby]

Do you not have any concerns about the sustainability of the current situation though?

I'm often a bit torn when it comes to my appraisal of the past and of the current situation. From an "I'm alright Jack" point of view I don't feel like I've got that much to complain about, I accept that it is very much different for others.

My concern is the future. What we lose through being part of the union is made up for in subsidy. Some folk like that, I don't, some folk don't even agree that this is the case.

It's a subsidy based on not an awful lot of good faith and can be removed as quickly as you can say "renegotiate Barnett".

The opposite if independence is dependence, and I'm just too uncomfortable with the idea of a future where Scotland is dependent on an increasingly angry and resentful nation for handouts.

Some peoples ambition for Scotland only stretches as far as standing with the begging bowl out for Westminster handouts.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Skol]

Some peoples ambition for Scotland only stretches as far as standing with the begging bowl out for Westminster handouts.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I have yet to meet anyone who fits that profile.

[Skol]

Do you not have any concerns about the sustainability of the current situation though?

I'm often a bit torn when it comes to my appraisal of the past and of the current situation. From an "I'm alright Jack" point of view I don't feel like I've got that much to complain about, I accept that it is very much different for others.

My concern is the future. What we lose through being part of the union is made up for in subsidy. Some folk like that, I don't, some folk don't even agree that this is the case.

It's a subsidy based on not an awful lot of good faith and can be removed as quickly as you can say "renegotiate Barnett".

The opposite if independence is dependence, and I'm just too uncomfortable with the idea of a future where Scotland is dependent on an increasingly angry and resentful nation for handouts.

Yes I do have concerns about the way the UK is being run at present, some significant concerns. However I dont see Independence as the solution to these concerns.

[danhibees1875]

I have yet to meet anyone who fits that profile.

You're mistaken, we're all subsidy junkies. :wink:

[Future17]

Do you not have any concerns about the sustainability of the current situation though?

I'm often a bit torn when it comes to my appraisal of the past and of the current situation. From an "I'm alright Jack" point of view I don't feel like I've got that much to complain about, I accept that it is very much different for others.

My concern is the future. What we lose through being part of the union is made up for in subsidy. Some folk like that, I don't, some folk don't even agree that this is the case.

It's a subsidy based on not an awful lot of good faith and can be removed as quickly as you can say "renegotiate Barnett".

The opposite if independence is dependence, and I'm just too uncomfortable with the idea of a future where Scotland is dependent on an increasingly angry and resentful nation for handouts.

Good post...although the "negotiate" part is probably optimistic!

[Kato]

I have yet to meet anyone who fits that profile.

...consciously...

[xyz23jc]

I have yet to meet anyone who fits that profile.

That's a shame mate...You don't get out much obviously.

[Callum_62]

Yes I do have concerns about the way the UK is being run at present, some significant concerns. However I dont see Independence as the solution to these concerns.What is the realistic solution?

Sent from my VOG-L29 using Tapatalk

[Hibby Bairn]

New poll

https://twitter.com/SavantaComRes/status/1387655839088062464?s=19

[Santa Cruz]

New poll

https://twitter.com/SavantaComRes/status/1387655839088062464?s=19

Do you believe/trust any of the various polls? They are all jumping about showing different results.

Quick look at a post on the FM's Twitter page and a lot of comments from SNP voters are they are splitting their list vote between Alba and Green and not doing as asked and giving both votes to SNP. Quite a few unhappy claiming it is clear to them she is more interested in remaining in power at Holyrood than delivering Independence. No idea how it works if the 2nd vote is split over 3 Indie Parties, safe to say the SNP voters are all going their own way with their 2nd votes.

[Ozyhibby]

Do you believe/trust any of the various polls? They are all jumping about showing different results.

Quick look at a post on the FM's Twitter page and a lot of comments from SNP voters are they are splitting their list vote between Alba and Green and not doing as asked and giving both votes to SNP. Quite a few unhappy claiming it is clear to them she is more interested in remaining in power at Holyrood than delivering Independence. No idea how it works if the 2nd vote is split over 3 Indie Parties, safe to say the SNP voters are all going their own way with their 2nd votes.

Vast majority of SNP voters are going both votes SNP. There is growing support for Greens but that may not be all Indy. More people listening to them these days anyway.
Alba will be unlikely to get a seat but may help a unionist to a list seat somewhere.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[SHODAN]

Do you believe/trust any of the various polls? They are all jumping about showing different results.

Quick look at a post on the FM's Twitter page and a lot of comments from SNP voters are they are splitting their list vote between Alba and Green and not doing as asked and giving both votes to SNP. Quite a few unhappy claiming it is clear to them she is more interested in remaining in power at Holyrood than delivering Independence. No idea how it works if the 2nd vote is split over 3 Indie Parties, safe to say the SNP voters are all going their own way with their 2nd votes.

I went both votes SNP at the last election, was wasted as my region at the time (Central) went all union. Green have got my list vote this time around.

[Radium]

Rather eclectic mix with the Dominoes flyer today

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210429/a4d970f582c484c182ab2e68c05568e4.jpg


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Future17]

Rather eclectic mix with the Dominoes flyer today

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210429/a4d970f582c484c182ab2e68c05568e4.jpg


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

No chance I'm voting Dominos in the constituency, but they might get my list vote.

[Kato]

No chance I'm voting Dominos in the constituency, but they might get my list vote.

Other candidates with a cheesy crust are available.

[Future17]

Other candidates with a cheesy crust are available.

I think they're stuffed.

[Radium]

No chance I'm voting Dominos in the constituency, but they might get my list vote.

For me it’s down to a single issue: no gluten free, no vote


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[CropleyWasGod]

Other candidates with a cheesy crust are available.

Any with added gammon?

[CloudSquall]

Do you believe/trust any of the various polls? They are all jumping about showing different results.

Quick look at a post on the FM's Twitter page and a lot of comments from SNP voters are they are splitting their list vote between Alba and Green and not doing as asked and giving both votes to SNP. Quite a few unhappy claiming it is clear to them she is more interested in remaining in power at Holyrood than delivering Independence. No idea how it works if the 2nd vote is split over 3 Indie Parties, safe to say the SNP voters are all going their own way with their 2nd votes.

While I do think the SNP is taking a slight hit on the list vote I think the people in Sturgeon's comments are likely the entire Alba faithful.

[JeMeSouviens]

Do you believe/trust any of the various polls? They are all jumping about showing different results.

Quick look at a post on the FM's Twitter page and a lot of comments from SNP voters are they are splitting their list vote between Alba and Green and not doing as asked and giving both votes to SNP. Quite a few unhappy claiming it is clear to them she is more interested in remaining in power at Holyrood than delivering Independence. No idea how it works if the 2nd vote is split over 3 Indie Parties, safe to say the SNP voters are all going their own way with their 2nd votes.

By all polling apart from Panelbase, Alba are a nearly irrelevant 2-3%. They could cost indy the odd seat but they won't add any.

The SNP-Green thing is a 2 way street I think. There are some SNP supporters voting Green from a tactical point of view on the list. But there are probably more Green supporters who have no chance to vote Green in the constituency because they aren't standing, so will give their vote to the pro-indy SNP.

[Moulin Yarns]

By all polling apart from Panelbase, Alba are a nearly irrelevant 2-3%. They could cost indy the odd seat but they won't add any.

The SNP-Green thing is a 2 way street I think. There are some SNP supporters voting Green from a tactical point of view on the list. But there are probably more Green supporters who have no chance to vote Green in the constituency because they aren't standing, so will give their vote to the pro-indy SNP.

I posted my calculations on the Scottish election thread for mid scotland and fife.

SNP need 40000 extra list votes for 1 seat, greens need 20000.

SNP get a list seat at the expense of the Greens


Greens get a 2nd list seat at the expense of the tories.

No brainer as they say.

[Hibrandenburg]

Rather eclectic mix with the Dominoes flyer today

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210429/a4d970f582c484c182ab2e68c05568e4.jpg


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

George Galloway "I've stood up against Separatists and Nationalists all my life". Conveniently forgetting his support for the IRA. What a throbbing member he is.

[Kato]

Any with added gammon?

How dare you mention pineapple!

[allmodcons]

I went both votes SNP at the last election, was wasted as my region at the time (Central) went all union. Green have got my list vote this time around.

I think that's the correct thing to do in Central.

I'm in Highland, where it's a bit more complex.

Will vote SNP on Constituency ballot but Regional list vote is more difficult, torn between SNP, Green and Andy Wightman :dunno:

[cabbageandribs1875]

EU should ‘hang out welcome sign’ for an independent Scotland | Scottish independence | The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/apr/29/eu-should-hang-out-welcome-sign-for-independent-scotland-letter-signed-cultural-figures?fbclid=IwAR0QHKvzOK7TohXcjhKX5uXJOIHprtpFv y7T6R64aoaG_LsJLwNi21lJ1ps)

European leaders are being urged to make an “unilateral and open offer” to Scotland to rejoin the EU should it vote for independence in a future referendum, in a letter signed by more than 170 prominent cultural figures (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/apr/29/the-eu-must-welcome-an-independent-scotland) from across the union.

:agree: i've thought the same for months how huge this would be in the lead up to Indy2, the EU don't have to think twice about p*****g off Westminster now

[Ozyhibby]

I think that's the correct thing to do in Central.

I'm in Highland, where it's a bit more complex.

Will vote SNP on Constituency ballot but Regional list vote is more difficult, torn between SNP, Green and Andy Wightman :dunno:

Can’t see Wightman getting anywhere near enough support to get a seat. Probably a wasted vote. Is highland not where SNP really need list votes?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Bostonhibby]

George Galloway "I've stood up against Separatists and Nationalists all my life". Conveniently forgetting his support for the IRA. What a throbbing member he is.To be fair it looks like he was only delivering the pizza's this time around. Keeps the extra toppings warm under that weird hat.

Sent from my SM-A750FN using Tapatalk

[Alex Trager]

Rather eclectic mix with the Dominoes flyer today

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210429/a4d970f582c484c182ab2e68c05568e4.jpg


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I got 5 from the family party, I think they’re called, the other day there.

Not a family I want to be part of

[SHODAN]

After a big flurry of leaflets at the start of the week they've tailed off now. My partner got an SNP one which appeared to have been targeted specifically at EU citizens but that's it.

[allmodcons]

I think that's the correct thing to do in Central.

I'm in Highland, where it's a bit more complex.

Will vote SNP on Constituency ballot but Regional list vote is more difficult, torn between SNP, Green and Andy Wightman :dunno:

Aye, will probably go SNP 1 and 2.

Highland and South of Scotland are the 2 regions where they could benefit from a good list vote.

[Moulin Yarns]

The press are insinuating that next week's Scottish election means we will have agreed to independence. I hope we will, but that will be after a referendum, hopefully with lots of calm campaigning like this. The 6th of May is an election for the best people to lead Scotland for the next 5 years. If there is a majority of pro-independence MPs you will get your chance to choose Scotland's path after that. No-one is railroading you into anything - it will be your choice!

https://youtu.be/99KNWWF0c4s

[Stick]

Aye, will probably go SNP 1 and 2.

Highland and South of Scotland are the 2 regions where they could benefit from a good list vote.

Yep that’s correct, highlands and south of Scotland regions are the two regions where it is definitely best to give both votes to the snp.

Figures for all regions here:-

https://scotlandwhatif.weebly.com/

[Hibrandenburg]

The press are insinuating that next week's Scottish election means we will have agreed to independence. I hope we will, but that will be after a referendum, hopefully with lots of calm campaigning like this. The 6th of May is an election for the best people to lead Scotland for the next 5 years. If there is a majority of pro-independence MPs you will get your chance to choose Scotland's path after that. No-one is railroading you into anything - it will be your choice!

https://youtu.be/99KNWWF0c4s

If only there was a precedent of using an advisory vote and then claiming that the people have spoken. :wink:

[ronaldo7]

If only there was a precedent of using an advisory vote and then claiming that the people have spoken. :wink:

If only we had a few fishing boats coming up the forth claiming to have taken back control of our Scottish fish.

[Skol]

The press are insinuating that next week's Scottish election means we will have agreed to independence. I hope we will, but that will be after a referendum, hopefully with lots of calm campaigning like this. The 6th of May is an election for the best people to lead Scotland for the next 5 years. If there is a majority of pro-independence MPs you will get your chance to choose Scotland's path after that. No-one is railroading you into anything - it will be your choice!

https://youtu.be/99KNWWF0c4s

If there is a majority of MSPs, but from less than 50% of the vote, so you think a referendum will still be sought ?

[Ozyhibby]

If there is a majority of MSPs, but from less than 50% of the vote, so you think a referendum will still be sought ?

Of course but at a timetable that suits the SG.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Moulin Yarns]

If there is a majority of MSPs, but from less than 50% of the vote, so you think a referendum will still be sought ?

Isn’t that what democracy delivers? Look at the percentage of votes that the tories got to become the government at Westminster.

You can't say less than 50% of the votes means you don't have a mandate, or indeed a majority of seats.

Edit. Tories got 43. 6% in 2019!!! They don't deserve to be in government with such a small number 😉


Want a better example? David Camerons 2015 election win that effectively delivered Brexit only got 36.9% and proceeded with the Brexit referendum.


So yes, most MSPs, even with less than 50% of the votes has a mandate to hold an independence referendum.

[Ozyhibby]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210501/84193bceef201f6e83596d93c42b58af.jpg


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Skol]

Isn’t that what democracy delivers? Look at the percentage of votes that the tories got to become the government at Westminster.

You can't say less than 50% of the votes means you don't have a mandate, or indeed a majority of seats.

Edit. Tories got 43. 6% in 2019!!! They don't deserve to be in government with such a small number 😉


Want a better example? David Camerons 2015 election win that effectively delivered Brexit only got 36.9% and proceeded with the Brexit referendum.


So yes, most MSPs, even with less than 50% of the votes has a mandate to hold an independence referendum.

I agree the mandate would be there. My point is will it be taken up when there is a danger of not winning

Not sure I get the Brexit comparison as that was called in order to put the eu question to bed.

[Ozyhibby]

I agree the mandate would be there. My point is will it be taken up when there is a danger of not winning

Not sure I get the Brexit comparison as that was called in order to put the eu question to bed.

I think it will be requested but the date of the vote will be a couple of years away. We’ll plenty of time for the refusal followed by the UK taking the Scottish people to court.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Callum_62]

Isn’t that what democracy delivers? Look at the percentage of votes that the tories got to become the government at Westminster.

You can't say less than 50% of the votes means you don't have a mandate, or indeed a majority of seats.

Edit. Tories got 43. 6% in 2019!!! They don't deserve to be in government with such a small number [emoji6]


Want a better example? David Camerons 2015 election win that effectively delivered Brexit only got 36.9% and proceeded with the Brexit referendum.


So yes, most MSPs, even with less than 50% of the votes has a mandate to hold an independence referendum.You are forgetting we are in Scotland

So we have a snp govt... Sorry a indy majority Govt.... Sorry a snp majority Govt..... Sorry a snp super majority Govt

All for the right for our own people to be asked a question

Union of equals indeed

Sent from my VOG-L29 using Tapatalk

[degenerated]

If there is a majority of MSPs, but from less than 50% of the vote, so you think a referendum will still be sought ?It's not a referendum so not sure what relevance the 50% is?

Sent from my CPH2009 using Tapatalk

[The Modfather]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210501/84193bceef201f6e83596d93c42b58af.jpg


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Off topic, but why is it front page news that a girl has turned 6?!

[Moulin Yarns]

Off topic, but why is it front page news that a girl has turned 6?!

Also off topic, in the current climate why is Westminster prepared to spend £200m on a boat?

[Ozyhibby]

I’m just pleased the Telegraph is saying ‘vote SNP’ if you want billions of pounds spent in Scotland.[emoji106]


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Skol]

It's not a referendum so not sure what relevance the 50% is?

Sent from my CPH2009 using Tapatalk

The relevance is that when a referendum is held, 50%+1 will be required. If current levels of support are less than 50% even with all the Tory nonsense going on, a win in a referendum is not guaranteed and a 2nd defeat would mean independence is off the table for a long time. It would be a brave call to seek a referendum in those circumstances.

[StevieC]

The relevance is that when a referendum is held, 50%+1 will be required. If current levels of support are less than 50% even with all the Tory nonsense going on, a win in a referendum is not guaranteed and a 2nd defeat would mean independence is off the table for a long time. It would be a brave call to seek a referendum in those circumstances.

Apples and pears .. not all Independence voters are SNP, not all SNP are Independence voters

[Moulin Yarns]

Apples and pears .. not all Independence voters are SNP, not all SNP are Independence voters

Indeed. I'm sure I heard somewhere that 30% of Scottish Labour voters were for independence.

[Skol]

Indeed. I'm sure I heard somewhere that 30% of Scottish Labour voters were for independence.

That’s not a lot of people !!!!

[Moulin Yarns]

That’s not a lot of people !!!!

In 2016 it was about 171,000 :wink:

[cabbageandribs1875]

https://scontent.fman1-2.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.6435-9/180965055_1678055429048769_22426531544283166_n.jpg ?_nc_cat=100&ccb=1-3&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_ohc=_id44NX8d3YAX9H0gBF&_nc_ht=scontent.fman1-2.fna&oh=05aa4929e81f531bc2045234708d7e78&oe=60B2D69E


:rolleyes:

[JimBHibees]

https://scontent.fman1-2.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.6435-9/180965055_1678055429048769_22426531544283166_n.jpg ?_nc_cat=100&ccb=1-3&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_ohc=_id44NX8d3YAX9H0gBF&_nc_ht=scontent.fman1-2.fna&oh=05aa4929e81f531bc2045234708d7e78&oe=60B2D69E


:rolleyes:

All for unity cool.

[Hibrandenburg]

https://scontent.fman1-2.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.6435-9/180965055_1678055429048769_22426531544283166_n.jpg ?_nc_cat=100&ccb=1-3&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_ohc=_id44NX8d3YAX9H0gBF&_nc_ht=scontent.fman1-2.fna&oh=05aa4929e81f531bc2045234708d7e78&oe=60B2D69E


:rolleyes:

Surely this is a pro independence ruse?

[cabbageandribs1875]

Surely this is a pro independence ruse?


not if Galloway has anything to do with it


he's a strange man

this is "it" from 1992, without the hat

24636

[JeMeSouviens]

not if Galloway has anything to do with it


he's a strange man

this is "it" from 1992, without the hat

24636

They were campaigning for devo I think? Is it not the brief “Scotland United” thing?

[cabbageandribs1875]

They were campaigning for devo I think? Is it not the brief “Scotland United” thing?


possibly, i just saw it and stole it

but he HAS also in the past asked to be shot if he ever stood next to a tory....whilst telling everyone a few months back to vote for them in the list vote

[CloudSquall]

Using the battle of Culloden as a defense of the Union given all that the defeat meant for the Highlands is absolute peak Jockholm Syndrome.

[lapsedhibee]

Using the battle of Culloden as a defense of the Union given all that the defeat meant for the Highlands is absolute peak Jockholm Syndrome.

Like that but you'll be in trouble on the Pet Peeves thread.

[Bangkok Hibby]

Like that but you'll be in trouble on the Pet Peeves thread.

I'd allow that one it's a beauty. 😀😀😀😀
Big bloody hypocrite that I am. 🤨

[Hibrandenburg]

Big bloody hypocrite that I am.

I think the word you're looking for is "prick". :wink:

[Future17]

I think the word you're looking for is "prick". :wink:

If we're sticking with the theme, surely Bangc**k is more appropriate. :wink:

[Hibrandenburg]

If we're sticking with the theme, surely Bangc**k is more appropriate. :wink:

:greengrin

[degenerated]

Surely this is a pro independence ruse?Or this one? Tweeted by the same Twitter account the Culloden one came from. https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210503/f52d7fef28d01899109534f4917a469d.jpg

Sent from my CPH2009 using Tapatalk

[Hibrandenburg]

Or this one? Tweeted by the same Twitter account the Culloden one came from. https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210503/f52d7fef28d01899109534f4917a469d.jpg

Sent from my CPH2009 using Tapatalk

What kind of person votes for a party that uses slogans condoning past ethnic cleansing atrocities of their own people in an election campaign?

This has to be a ruse to split the unionist vote by taking extremist votes away from the main unionist parties.

[degenerated]

What kind of person votes for a party that uses slogans condoning past ethnic cleansing atrocities of their own people in an election campaign?

This has to be a ruse to split the unionist vote by taking extremist votes away from the main unionist parties.George Galloway?

That sort of stuff appeals to a lot of unionists, that's who he is grifting a living from now.

Sent from my CPH2009 using Tapatalk

[weecounty hibby]

That is ****ing disgusting and all from a party whose leader says he hates blood and soil nationalism. Galloway and his followers are the lowest of the low. Hopefully the lunatic fringe that vote for him cost the unionists a seat or two. Sadly the indy side have their own nut jobs in the form of Alba.

[James310]

https://twitter.com/georgegalloway/status/1389129921713344514?s=20

It's a fake account.

Maybe it was the Iranians?

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/iran-peddling-disinformation-to-influence-scottish-election-dlfk27npc

"They pose as locals sympathetic to Scottish independence, and encourage real users to share pro-separatist material, graphics, memes and cartoons with their contacts online"

[Hibrandenburg]

https://twitter.com/georgegalloway/status/1389129921713344514?s=20

It's a fake account.

Maybe it was the Iranians?

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/iran-peddling-disinformation-to-influence-scottish-election-dlfk27npc

"They pose as locals sympathetic to Scottish independence, and encourage real users to share pro-separatist material, graphics, memes and cartoons with their contacts online"

George Galloway is an odious creature, but I had my doubts that he would have been behind that tweet.

[Bangkok Hibby]

I think the word you're looking for is "prick". :wink:

Touche 🙏🏻

[CapitalGreen]

https://twitter.com/georgegalloway/status/1389129921713344514?s=20

It's a fake account.

Maybe it was the Iranians?

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/iran-peddling-disinformation-to-influence-scottish-election-dlfk27npc

"They pose as locals sympathetic to Scottish independence, and encourage real users to share pro-separatist material, graphics, memes and cartoons with their contacts online"

The internet is so awash with fake profiles and names now that it’s near impossible to differentiate between who is real and who is not, isn’t that right James/John/BrianC?

[degenerated]

George Galloway is an odious creature, but I had my doubts that he would have been behind that tweet.Has he been asked to apologise for it yet?

Glenn Campbell, James Matthews etc would be banging on the door of Bute house in a state of manufactured outrage if it had been the other way round :greengrin

Sent from my CPH2009 using Tapatalk

[Bristolhibby]

You are forgetting we are in Scotland

So we have a snp govt... Sorry a indy majority Govt.... Sorry a snp majority Govt..... Sorry a snp super majority Govt

All for the right for our own people to be asked a question

Union of equals indeed

Sent from my VOG-L29 using Tapatalk

And for that right to be turned down flatly by Johnston and his ilk.

J

[Ozyhibby]

And for that right to be turned down flatly by Johnston and his ilk.

J

[emoji1696][emoji1696][emoji1696]He does indeed turn us down.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Ozyhibby]

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2021/05/10/nicola-sturgeons-quest-for-scottish-independence?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=onsite-share&utm_brand=the-new-yorker&utm_social-type=earned


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[JeMeSouviens]

Steven Weatherill, an Oxford law professor, has a new paper on the UK's internal market:

https://ukandeu.ac.uk/working-paper/will-the-united-kingdom-survive-the-uk-internal-market-act/



Scotland and Wales, in conclusion

The process was rushed. The devolved administrations were given little notice of the brutal model proposed by the UK government and given a compressed timeframe within which to object. And on substance the protests they raised were dismissed, save only for the weak and fundamentally subordinate role ultimately allowed for common frameworks under the Act. Anyone charged with devising a strategy apt to communicate to Scots and Welsh that participation in the UK demands the subversion of the regulatory independence that they might imagine their Parliament and Senedd enjoys would greet both the process and substance of the UK Internal Market Act with unconditional glee. The Act feeds a narrative of the UK as an involuntary Union. The case for independence is simply made: only by breaking free of the UK will regulatory choices made in Edinburgh and in Cardiff truly be respected and truly operate effectively.

Ooft!

[cabbageandribs1875]

https://scontent.fman1-2.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.6435-9/181634249_4313184565379435_5484304792483902948_n.j pg?_nc_cat=106&ccb=1-3&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_ohc=dXrkaaZFgk0AX-UGXnr&_nc_oc=AQmuaA1OjMJB6BDXdovSUye_Wk_5PclA7puJglQABOp m0hajLunA9f3OJza7rQLGZ48&_nc_ht=scontent.fman1-2.fna&oh=57fd2d9f70e1b8876d729d47a6bf41dc&oe=60B75BA9


oh please don't leave us



enjoy your bankruptcy though

[JeMeSouviens]

Monbiot says it like it is - the end of the UK will be good for all its bits:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/may/05/united-kingdom-westminster-independence-union-democracy

[Jack]

Monbiot says it like it is - the end of the UK will be good for all its bits:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/may/05/united-kingdom-westminster-independence-union-democracy

With the exception of England which is likely to fester in its own self importance and corruption.

Just don't send me back to my country of birth. I've been here longer than most of you ;-)

[Just Alf]

With the exception of England which is likely to fester in its own self importance and corruption.

Just don't send me back to my country of birth. I've been here longer than most of you ;-)

Sounds awfy like a case of "I'm all right......." :greengrin

[Smartie]

With the exception of England which is likely to fester in its own self importance and corruption.

Just don't send me back to my country of birth. I've been here longer than most of you ;-)

I think England needs to be independent and would thrive.

Free of all delusion that colonial entities, Europe, Scotland, Ireland or whoever only exist because of their benevolence, they would stand or fall by their own actions. Absolute accountability.

It’s easy to forget how much about England right now is so great and yet how much better it could be. It’s all just buried beneath a whole pile of bollocks at the moment.

They need to be left on their own to figure some stuff out for a while.

[Ozyhibby]

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/what-s-next-for-the-union-/amp?__twitter_impression=true


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Steven79]

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/what-s-next-for-the-union-/amp?__twitter_impression=true


Sent from my iPhone using TapatalkThey don't get Scotland at all.

Sent from my SM-G960F using Tapatalk

[Pagan Hibernia]

https://scontent.fman1-2.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.6435-9/181634249_4313184565379435_5484304792483902948_n.j pg?_nc_cat=106&ccb=1-3&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_ohc=dXrkaaZFgk0AX-UGXnr&_nc_oc=AQmuaA1OjMJB6BDXdovSUye_Wk_5PclA7puJglQABOp m0hajLunA9f3OJza7rQLGZ48&_nc_ht=scontent.fman1-2.fna&oh=57fd2d9f70e1b8876d729d47a6bf41dc&oe=60B75BA9


oh please don't leave us



enjoy your bankruptcy though

:greengrin:agree:

[GlesgaeHibby]

SNP making all the right noises just now about moving on a second referendum, but we've been down that road many times over the last 5 years:

https://archive.ph/25AlK

Action, not words are needed now.

[Ozyhibby]

SNP making all the right noises just now about moving on a second referendum, but we've been down that road many times over the last 5 years:

https://archive.ph/25AlK

Action, not words are needed now.

Already looks like Johnson will grant a s30 order. Shame. Would have liked a refusal first.

https://www.itv.com/news/2021-05-08/boris-johnson-to-love-bomb-scotland-to-keep-it-in-uk


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[DaveF]

Already looks like Johnson will grant a s30 order. Shame. Would have liked a refusal first.

https://www.itv.com/news/2021-05-08/boris-johnson-to-love-bomb-scotland-to-keep-it-in-uk


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

If he's going to love bomb Scotland (whatever that is) then it can only be good for Yes, in terms of building support ahead of the next vote.

[lapsedhibee]

If he's going to love bomb Scotland (whatever that is) then it can only be good for Yes, in terms of building support ahead of the next vote.

It's going to be bribes, isn't it? The same strategy that has worked out so well for Norniron.

[DaveF]

It's going to be bribes, isn't it? The same strategy that has worked out so well for Norniron.

Probably, though it's not the same situation as they needed to bribe the DUP in order to do Brexit. There was some dissent from the backbenches over that so you have to think similar bribes for us will see that dissent X 10 or more.

[Jack]

If he's going to love bomb Scotland (whatever that is) then it can only be good for Yes, in terms of building support ahead of the next vote.

I would imagine it will be an extention of the 'leveling up' policy in England.

This is a policy that saw big investment, particularly in those areas with tory MPs! I'd imagine they'd need to do more than turn the Borders into some kind of metropolis and the engine room for the Scottish economy.

[ronaldo7]

How about they start by giving back the areas of control that they stole from the Scottish Parliament post Brexit.

[Jack]

Can someone remind me what the polls were saying as indyref1 kicked off?

[weecounty hibby]

For love bombing see patronising. Remember the last time we were love bombed? Counts like Eddie Izzard patting us on the head like some small child and telling us it will all be fine.
If they start to chuck money at Scotlamd there will be a backlash by many in England as they don't believe money should be spent in Scotland.

[Jack]

For love bombing see patronising. Remember the last time we were love bombed? Counts like Eddie Izzard patting us on the head like some small child and telling us it will all be fine.
If they start to chuck money at Scotlamd there will be a backlash by many in England as they don't believe money should be spent in Scotland.

Boris being one of those ... a pound spent in London blah blah.

[ronaldo7]

Can someone remind me what the polls were saying as indyref1 kicked off?

Yes were around the 28-30 mark. No were over 50, with lots of undecided

[Colr]

If he's going to love bomb Scotland (whatever that is) then it can only be good for Yes, in terms of building support ahead of the next vote.

If its Johnson, that means ****ging someone else behind our backs .

[Since90+2]

Yes were around the 28-30 mark. No were over 50, with lots of undecided

Polls were only showing a 30% support for independence at the start of the campaign? Surely they weren't that low?

[DaveF]

Polls were only showing a 30% support for independence at the start of the campaign? Surely they weren't that low?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2014_Scottish_independence _referendum

Not sure how accurate this is bit it shows polls from 2014 and before.

[Glory Lurker]

I mind at the start of campaigning in 2013 the low yes polling wasn't dispiriting because of the size of don't knows.

There are folk, particularly Alba types, that say there is no strategic reason to delay the referendum, saying "we were at 30% and ended at 45%, we're at 50% now, we'll skoosh it from that starting base". Very wishful thinking as the don't knows are a fraction of what they were in 2013.

[lapsedhibee]

I mind at the start of campaigning in 2013 the low yes polling wasn't dispiriting because of the size of don't knows.

There are folk, particularly Alba types, that say there is no strategic reason to delay the referendum, saying "we were at 30% and ended at 45%, we're at 50% now, we'll skoosh it from that starting base". Very wishful thinking as the don't knows are a fraction of what they were in 2013.

:agree: Not just wishful thinking, but sheer madness.

[Moulin Yarns]

Surely everyone in Scotland (if not the whole U.K.), no matter how you voted can see how daft and patronising this sort of questioning is. The awkward silence that @valmcdermid caused Bolton to have is rather entertaining though. https://t.co/lh5UcknO24

I hope everyone is brushing up on the language skills required after independence 🤣

[greenlex]

Surely everyone in Scotland (if not the whole U.K.), no matter how you voted can see how daft and patronising this sort of questioning is. The awkward silence that @valmcdermid caused Bolton to have is rather entertaining though. https://t.co/lh5UcknO24

I hope everyone is brushing up on the language skills required after independence 🤣
It’s actually embarrassing. What a ducking incredibly stupid question. Do folk down south actually think we would want to do that?

[Ozyhibby]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210509/210c8657547a026c9c1bbdc22e8b2f30.jpg

Union saving is turning into a bit of a cottage industry.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[CloudSquall]

Alongside Gordon Brown making a Churchillesque speech to a room of 10 OAPs I can't wait for Alistair Darling to tell us all about how the Bank of England saved the galactic universe back in the day and Doogie Alexander pleading for us to remember the 2012 Olympics with a tear or two in his eye.

[ronaldo7]

It’s actually embarrassing. What a ducking incredibly stupid question. Do folk down south actually think we would want to do that?

We'll not be able to use "their" language when we get our independence. 😂

[SHODAN]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210509/210c8657547a026c9c1bbdc22e8b2f30.jpg

Union saving is turning into a bit of a cottage industry.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

If Brown had put even half the effort he does into opposing independence, or Jeremy Corbyn, into opposing the Tories in 2010, he might have actually won.

[Moulin Yarns]

If Brown had put even half the effort he does into opposing independence, or Jeremy Corbyn, into opposing the Tories in 2010, he might have actually won.

Aye, but we know that it's the SNP's fault. 😉

[lucky]

The debate on independence has changed since 2013. More people are entrenched in their views so the start point for Yes/leave is higher but does not guarantee success. Pro independence supporters have to be very careful with their attitude on non / undecided voters. Shouting down or gloating is not going to win. Slagging of leaders of no is not going to win. If Scotland is to be independent then the debate must be won on the issues and what a Scotland can be. I’m a soft Yes/leave voter but get put off with some of language used about the U.K. and I’m 100% put of by Alex Salmond’s views and ways of achieving independence. Nicola Strugeon is spot on, take the slow route and bring forward legislation for a referendum in 2024. Illegal or wild cat referendums won’t achieve independence as no/remain voters will not participate in it as happen in Catalonia/Spain.

[Smartie]

The debate on independence has changed since 2013. More people are entrenched in their views so the start point for Yes/leave is higher but does not guarantee success. Pro independence supporters have to be very careful with their attitude on non / undecided voters. Shouting down or gloating is not going to win. Slagging of leaders of no is not going to win. If Scotland is to be independent then the debate must be won on the issues and what a Scotland can be. I’m a soft Yes/leave voter but get put off with some of language used about the U.K. and I’m 100% put of by Alex Salmond’s views and ways of achieving independence. Nicola Strugeon is spot on, take the slow route and bring forward legislation for a referendum in 2024. Illegal or wild cat referendums won’t achieve independence as no/remain voters will not participate in it as happen in Catalonia/Spain.

I agree with all of this, your last few posts have been very good.

[Ozyhibby]

The debate on independence has changed since 2013. More people are entrenched in their views so the start point for Yes/leave is higher but does not guarantee success. Pro independence supporters have to be very careful with their attitude on non / undecided voters. Shouting down or gloating is not going to win. Slagging of leaders of no is not going to win. If Scotland is to be independent then the debate must be won on the issues and what a Scotland can be. I’m a soft Yes/leave voter but get put off with some of language used about the U.K. and I’m 100% put of by Alex Salmond’s views and ways of achieving independence. Nicola Strugeon is spot on, take the slow route and bring forward legislation for a referendum in 2024. Illegal or wild cat referendums won’t achieve independence as no/remain voters will not participate in it as happen in Catalonia/Spain.

Of course. Getting a referendum is the easy part, building enough support to actually win it is the hard part. There is a lot of work to be done over the next couple of years. Thankfully the SNP have the right people in place to get that work done. And Alba appears to have purged the party of a fair few of the zoomers, so in that respect it wasn’t a complete waste of time. The one’s who didn’t have the bottle to jump to Alba like Cherry and McNeil will be back in their box as well. Everyone within the SNP will be pulling in the same direction now.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[wookie70]

The debate on independence has changed since 2013. More people are entrenched in their views so the start point for Yes/leave is higher but does not guarantee success. Pro independence supporters have to be very careful with their attitude on non / undecided voters. Shouting down or gloating is not going to win. Slagging of leaders of no is not going to win. If Scotland is to be independent then the debate must be won on the issues and what a Scotland can be. I’m a soft Yes/leave voter but get put off with some of language used about the U.K. and I’m 100% put of by Alex Salmond’s views and ways of achieving independence. Nicola Strugeon is spot on, take the slow route and bring forward legislation for a referendum in 2024. Illegal or wild cat referendums won’t achieve independence as no/remain voters will not participate in it as happen in Catalonia/Spain.

Sturgeon constantly referenced Boris Johnson this campaign. In previous years it would have been having our futures decided by Westminster but this time she personalised it. I agree with you in most ways but elections are won these days by buzzwords and phrases and playing the man not the ball. I don't really want politics to be like that but if one side(lets call them the Hearts of Politics) are playing that game and the Independence side(lets call that Hibs) are playing with a straight bat then eloquent play and playing the game the way it should play often counts for nothing when the big bruiser comes straight through you. Hibs derby record is proof of how playing dirty in football can be successful and politics in the 21st centaury is the same. Simplify and kick the life out of the opposition wins far more games and elections than playing the opposition off the park with manifestos(tactics), waxing lyrical(skillful play) or no deliberate foul play.

I think the SNP need to do a bit of both. They failed to use our electoral system to get a massive Indy majority while the Unionists used it to maximise their vote. The yes and no votes are probably already secured so there is only a small pot of votes to gain. Unionists will be going crazy with project fear and now have Brexit to add to their argument and the massive debt due to Covid(actually WM handling of Covid). The SNP and other Indy supporting parties need to ramp up the story on how unsuccessful the UK is and how unfair the distribution of money is in terms of spending in London etc. They also have to make it about the likes of Gove, Johnson and Reece-Mogg etc. They are the lowest of the low and that needs exploited. If they go they will be replaced by another group who are just as bad. Covid also needs exploited and we need to state what we couldn't do because of the Union and how many lives that could have saved.

I do also agree that the arguments need to be well thought through. Drop the monarchy for one, say the pound will be used initially but we will then make a decision in 5-10 years time depending on EU membership etc. Make Land reform a key policy and state how much land is in the hands of those that never earned it. Don't be afraid of having a border and make a plan for Green Growth with the Green Party that can propel the economy and make Scotland as clean as we can be and as big an energy exporter as possible. Route 1 politics though. Do it with snappy statements and positive messaging. The electorate aren't that bothered with details, most haven't even got a clue how the electoral system even works judging by how many waste their second vote and still ask why it never counted.

I still think it is all on a Knife edge so I would make sure that there is no statements like once in a generation etc. Indy will come as those supporting Unionism will simply become extinct. It might take a couple of referendums though so make sure another one can happen and base that around the Scottish Election result. Make sure any replays are money spinning victories where the good guys actually win for once.

Sturgeon is the key to Indy imo. She is difficult to attack because she is clean as a whistle. She seems to now understand that she needs to big herself up and did a good job of that in the election. The next level is attacking those on the other side. She needs to ramp that up and treat Johnson the way she treated that racist piece of s***e in the Glasgow streets. Call Johnson what he is.

[JeMeSouviens]

The debate on independence has changed since 2013. More people are entrenched in their views so the start point for Yes/leave is higher but does not guarantee success. Pro independence supporters have to be very careful with their attitude on non / undecided voters. Shouting down or gloating is not going to win. Slagging of leaders of no is not going to win. If Scotland is to be independent then the debate must be won on the issues and what a Scotland can be. I’m a soft Yes/leave voter but get put off with some of language used about the U.K. and I’m 100% put of by Alex Salmond’s views and ways of achieving independence. Nicola Strugeon is spot on, take the slow route and bring forward legislation for a referendum in 2024. Illegal or wild cat referendums won’t achieve independence as no/remain voters will not participate in it as happen in Catalonia/Spain.

Salmond is just lashing around desperately trying to latch onto any zoomer faction that'll have him. The day before yesterday's man.

NS has repeatedly said she won't do anything illegal. But "illegal" should not be confused with "not agreed". There is a grey area over a referendum that is consultative and not binding (indyref1 was binding, the brexit ref was merely consultative).

The argument goes:

- constitution is a reserved matter so Scot gov cannot enact any change to it
- any ref is related to the constitution therefore illegal without us approving - sez UK gov
- ah, but a consultative ref doesn't change anything, it merely measures public opinion - sez Scot gov
- but it's clearly intended to create pressure for change - sez UK gov, we'll see you in the Supreme Court

So "legal/illegal" is not clear although you'd (or at least I'd) expect the SC to be biased to back the UK gov. In any case, the UK gov could quickly pass a law to make it specifically illegal before it could be held. I guess the latter scenario would be the optical dream for Nats.

[Hibrandenburg]

The debate on independence has changed since 2013. More people are entrenched in their views so the start point for Yes/leave is higher but does not guarantee success. Pro independence supporters have to be very careful with their attitude on non / undecided voters. Shouting down or gloating is not going to win. Slagging of leaders of no is not going to win. If Scotland is to be independent then the debate must be won on the issues and what a Scotland can be. I’m a soft Yes/leave voter but get put off with some of language used about the U.K. and I’m 100% put of by Alex Salmond’s views and ways of achieving independence. Nicola Strugeon is spot on, take the slow route and bring forward legislation for a referendum in 2024. Illegal or wild cat referendums won’t achieve independence as no/remain voters will not participate in it as happen in Catalonia/Spain.

Good post.

I'm convinced there's still a few progressive left voters to be won over. If the independence movement can convince enough of them that their ideals would thrive in an independent Scotland (I'm already convinced), then anything is possible.

The SNP and Greens have ticked the first box in that they've now secured a parliamentary majority that will push for another independence referendum, they now have to go on and ensure that happens but more importantly they have to set out a realistic vision of an independent Scotland that is attractive to the majority of the Scottish electorate and has no or little unknowns. That's the hard bit because faith in Scotland's potential isn't enough for some.

[Ozyhibby]

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-snp-has-no-mandate-for-a-second-referendum/amp?__twitter_impression=true

Daisley is losing the plot. Hope the unionists listen to him.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[JeMeSouviens]

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-snp-has-no-mandate-for-a-second-referendum/amp?__twitter_impression=true

Daisley is losing the plot. Hope the unionists listen to him.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

What's his endgame? :confused: 90% indy support suppressed by tanks?

His playbook is exactly what took devo support from ~50% in 1979 to 75% in the 90s.

Ironic that he starts by bleating about short-termism. :greengrin

[Bristolhibby]

What's his endgame? :confused: 90% indy support suppressed by tanks?

His playbook is exactly what took devo support from ~50% in 1979 to 75% in the 90s.

Ironic that he starts by bleating about short-termism. :greengrin

I know right. His solution is to make any referendum illegal.

That’s simply not sustainable and to quote Marr “How then do Scots legally go about gaining independence?”

J

[JeMeSouviens]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Epwzl0kXMAAANcR?format=jpg&name=large

[BroxburnHibee]

The debate on independence has changed since 2013. More people are entrenched in their views so the start point for Yes/leave is higher but does not guarantee success. Pro independence supporters have to be very careful with their attitude on non / undecided voters. Shouting down or gloating is not going to win. Slagging of leaders of no is not going to win. If Scotland is to be independent then the debate must be won on the issues and what a Scotland can be. I’m a soft Yes/leave voter but get put off with some of language used about the U.K. and I’m 100% put of by Alex Salmond’s views and ways of achieving independence. Nicola Strugeon is spot on, take the slow route and bring forward legislation for a referendum in 2024. Illegal or wild cat referendums won’t achieve independence as no/remain voters will not participate in it as happen in Catalonia/Spain.

Agree with a lot of that but surely attacking anything that Boris says will be a vote winner :greengrin

A lot of lessons will have been learnt from the last time. The currency issue needs a clear answer. Its the economic answers that will convince the don't knows.

[CloudSquall]

I can imagine Daisley being left out of the circle at Spectator get togethers desperately over laughing at "scrounging jocks" jokes in a vain attempt to be accepted as one of the crew.

[JeMeSouviens]

Agree with a lot of that but surely attacking anything that Boris says will be a vote winner :greengrin

A lot of lessons will have been learnt from the last time. The currency issue needs a clear answer. Its the economic answers that will convince the don't knows.

:agree:

tbh, I'm not sure exactly what the best answer on currency is, I'm not an expert on monetary theory and there's plenty of disagreement among actual experts. I lean towards our own currency because of the flexibility it gives you but that does entail doing the hard yards of building fiscal credibility. I think you can build a reasonable consensus around:

- use £ for a transitional period
- as soon as practicable switch to Scots £
- keep use of € under review and consider switch in long term

It is crucial that proponents of Yes can clearly answer the questions and that none of it depends on the actions of others. Giving the UK side the gift of refusing a monetary union was a stupid mistake last time. It is absolutely vital not to make the same mistakes again, so don't propose anything on currency or borders or whatever that relies on rUK co-operation, because we certainly won't get it unless/until we have won a ref and are actually negotiating.

[ronaldo7]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Epwzl0kXMAAANcR?format=jpg&name=large

I see he's in full campaign mode for the union today. Anybody know what or where middle Scotland is?

[JeMeSouviens]

I see he's in full campaign mode for the union today. Anybody know what or where middle Scotland is?

Mainly in GB's heid. :dunno:

[Moulin Yarns]

https://www.chathamhouse.org/2021/05/scottish-independence-will-impact-uks-global-role?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=organic-social&utm_campaign=scotland-indy-ref-analysis&utm_content=scotland-indy-ref-analysis

I found this an interesting read.

[lapsedhibee]

Sturgeon constantly referenced Boris Johnson this campaign. In previous years it would have been having our futures decided by Westminster but this time she personalised it. I agree with you in most ways but elections are won these days by buzzwords and phrases and playing the man not the ball. I don't really want politics to be like that but if one side(lets call them the Hearts of Politics) are playing that game and the Independence side(lets call that Hibs) are playing with a straight bat then eloquent play and playing the game the way it should play often counts for nothing when the big bruiser comes straight through you. Hibs derby record is proof of how playing dirty in football can be successful and politics in the 21st centaury is the same. Simplify and kick the life out of the opposition wins far more games and elections than playing the opposition off the park with manifestos(tactics), waxing lyrical(skillful play) or no deliberate foul play.

I think the SNP need to do a bit of both. They failed to use our electoral system to get a massive Indy majority while the Unionists used it to maximise their vote. The yes and no votes are probably already secured so there is only a small pot of votes to gain. Unionists will be going crazy with project fear and now have Brexit to add to their argument and the massive debt due to Covid(actually WM handling of Covid). The SNP and other Indy supporting parties need to ramp up the story on how unsuccessful the UK is and how unfair the distribution of money is in terms of spending in London etc. They also have to make it about the likes of Gove, Johnson and Reece-Mogg etc. They are the lowest of the low and that needs exploited. If they go they will be replaced by another group who are just as bad. Covid also needs exploited and we need to state what we couldn't do because of the Union and how many lives that could have saved.

I do also agree that the arguments need to be well thought through. Drop the monarchy for one, say the pound will be used initially but we will then make a decision in 5-10 years time depending on EU membership etc. Make Land reform a key policy and state how much land is in the hands of those that never earned it. Don't be afraid of having a border and make a plan for Green Growth with the Green Party that can propel the economy and make Scotland as clean as we can be and as big an energy exporter as possible. Route 1 politics though. Do it with snappy statements and positive messaging. The electorate aren't that bothered with details, most haven't even got a clue how the electoral system even works judging by how many waste their second vote and still ask why it never counted.

I still think it is all on a Knife edge so I would make sure that there is no statements like once in a generation etc. Indy will come as those supporting Unionism will simply become extinct. It might take a couple of referendums though so make sure another one can happen and base that around the Scottish Election result. Make sure any replays are money spinning victories where the good guys actually win for once.

Sturgeon is the key to Indy imo. She is difficult to attack because she is clean as a whistle. She seems to now understand that she needs to big herself up and did a good job of that in the election. The next level is attacking those on the other side. She needs to ramp that up and treat Johnson the way she treated that racist piece of s***e in the Glasgow streets. Call Johnson what he is.

:agree:

[lapsedhibee]

I know right. His solution is to make any referendum illegal.

And all that needs is for someone in the UKGov to show "backbone". :faf:

[greenlex]

:agree:

tbh, I'm not sure exactly what the best answer on currency is, I'm not an expert on monetary theory and there's plenty of disagreement among actual experts. I lean towards our own currency because of the flexibility it gives you but that does entail doing the hard yards of building fiscal credibility. I think you can build a reasonable consensus around:

- use £ for a transitional period
- as soon as practicable switch to Scots £
- keep use of € under review and consider switch in long term

It is crucial that proponents of Yes can clearly answer the questions and that none of it depends on the actions of others. Giving the UK side the gift of refusing a monetary union was a stupid mistake last time. It is absolutely vital not to make the same mistakes again, so don't propose anything on currency or borders or whatever that relies on rUK co-operation, because we certainly won't get it unless/until we have won a ref and are actually negotiating.
If we are not in the EU can we use the Euro? We should just use the pound short to medium term. They can’t stop us it’s as much ours as theirs.

[JeMeSouviens]

If we are not in the EU can we use the Euro? We should just use the pound short to medium term. They can’t stop us it’s as much ours as theirs.

We could use the € from outside the EU in the same way we could use the £ outside the UK, ie. without any say or consideration from the central bank whether it's the ECB or the BoE. I meant when we rejoin the EU though, so as a long term if it suits us type of move.

Short term use of the £ is ok I think, but if Indy is to succeed then our economy needs to pivot towards Europe and away from rUK. So following sterling's monetary policy would not be good in the long run.

[greenlex]

We could use the € from outside the EU in the same way we could use the £ outside the UK, ie. without any say or consideration from the central bank whether it's the ECB or the BoE. I meant when we rejoin the EU though, so as a long term if it suits us type of move.

Short term use of the £ is ok I think, but if Indy is to succeed then our economy needs to pivot towards Europe and away from rUK. So following sterling's monetary policy would not be good in the long run.
Agreed if we rejoin the EU we simply have to join the Euro. It’s near parity in any case and the pound is only going one way long term.

[Ozyhibby]

Euro suits me. It’s a much stronger currency than the pound. It would really plug us into the worlds largest single market.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Green Man]

If we are not in the EU can we use the Euro? We should just use the pound short to medium term. They can’t stop us it’s as much ours as theirs.

There are a few non EU members using the Euro at the moment, I know Andorra is one.

[greenlex]

There are a few non EU members using the Euro at the moment, I know Andorra is one.
:aok: