Scottish Independence

[Ozyhibby]

There are 2 new polls out today.

The ComRes poll should be ignored. It's a non standard poll that isn't weighted. Why they would do this is anybody's guess :rolleyes:.

The Panlebase poll is more concerning and does show a drop in support for Independence and the SNP.

Nobody likes to see party infighting and opposition parties and the media will play on this big style in the run up to the Scottish Election.

Never mind how Richard Leonard and Jackson Carlaw were deposed (i.e. - party infighting)!

A strong manifesto that promises a referendum no matter what will be enough to re-unite the party behind NS for the campaign.


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[G B Young]

There are 2 new polls out today.

The ComRes poll should be ignored. It's a non standard poll that isn't weighted. Why they would do this is anybody's guess :rolleyes:.

The Panlebase poll is more concerning and does show a drop in support for Independence and the SNP.

Nobody likes to see party infighting and opposition parties and the media will play on this big style in the run up to the Scottish Election.

Never mind how Richard Leonard and Jackson Carlaw were deposed (i.e. - party infighting)!

Barely any voters would have known who they were. Labour and the Tories could have gone into the election without leaders and probably have done no worse than with those two in charge.

Re the ComRes poll, is that the same as the 'Savanta' one Scotland on Sunday has commissioned?

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/poll-suggests-no-vote-lead-as-salmond-inquiry-drives-voters-away-from-scottish-independence-3157134

If so, and apologies for my lack of expertise re polling, but what does 'not weighted for voter turnout' actually mean?

[CloudSquall]

It will be interesting to see if the drop has already bottomed out or if further drops in support (both for indy and the SNP) are to come.

[allmodcons]

Barely any voters would have known who they were. Labour and the Tories could have gone into the election without leaders and probably have done no worse than with those two in charge.

Re the ComRes poll, is that the same as the 'Savanta' one Scotland on Sunday has commissioned?

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/poll-suggests-no-vote-lead-as-salmond-inquiry-drives-voters-away-from-scottish-independence-3157134

If so, and apologies for my lack of expertise re polling, but what does 'not weighted for voter turnout' actually mean?

Aye, Comres Savanta are the polling organisation.

[Ozyhibby]

Barely any voters would have known who they were. Labour and the Tories could have gone into the election without leaders and probably have done no worse than with those two in charge.

Re the ComRes poll, is that the same as the 'Savanta' one Scotland on Sunday has commissioned?

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/poll-suggests-no-vote-lead-as-salmond-inquiry-drives-voters-away-from-scottish-independence-3157134

If so, and apologies for my lack of expertise re polling, but what does 'not weighted for voter turnout' actually mean?

Not sure why they would do that as no other polling organisation does it and they themselves don’t normally do it. There are more polls due out tomorrow.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210307/dd25692bc3939fc0d4bbf6cbf1e4b187.jpg


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[One Day Soon]

Aye, Comres Savanta are the polling organisation.

So weird that it wasn't weighted when all others appear to be. You'd imagine someone will be getting sore knuckles for that. I saw JMS say that weighting wouldn't make much difference but it's a subject I know little about. In any event it doesn't do anyone any favours to rely on it if trends are what's being looked at.

[JeMeSouviens]

So weird that it wasn't weighted when all others appear to be. You'd imagine someone will be getting sore knuckles for that. I saw JMS say that weighting wouldn't make much difference but it's a subject I know little about. In any event it doesn't do anyone any favours to rely on it if trends are what's being looked at.

The weighting is such an easy thing to do, it doesn’t make sense not to do it. So the only things I can think of are the newspaper has jumped the gun on incomplete results to get it in this week’s paper or the weighting made it 50:50 and they’re chasing the No headline.

[JeMeSouviens]

Barely any voters would have known who they were. Labour and the Tories could have gone into the election without leaders and probably have done no worse than with those two in charge.

Re the ComRes poll, is that the same as the 'Savanta' one Scotland on Sunday has commissioned?

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/poll-suggests-no-vote-lead-as-salmond-inquiry-drives-voters-away-from-scottish-independence-3157134

If so, and apologies for my lack of expertise re polling, but what does 'not weighted for voter turnout' actually mean?

Typically, you weight various subsamples of the poll up and down to make sure you have the right numbers of male/female, age ranges, voters for each party at the last election etc.

Turnout weighting usually just means you ask people how likely they are to vote. Then some firms will exclude people who say they aren’t certain to vote or people who are less than 8/10 to vote. So it’s pretty simple to do.

[One Day Soon]

The weighting is such an easy thing to do, it doesn’t make sense not to do it. So the only things I can think of are the newspaper has jumped the gun on incomplete results to get it in this week’s paper or the weighting made it 50:50 and they’re chasing the No headline.

It's so self defeating that I can only think someone actually forgot. You look at the position of that poll now and its essentially money down the sink.

[Ozyhibby]

It's so self defeating that I can only think someone actually forgot. You look at the position of that poll now and its essentially money down the sink.

I wouldn’t say that. They got their headline, so money well spent.


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[Ozyhibby]

https://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2021/03/an-extraordinary-weekend-when-media.html?m=1

Turns out the result of the panel base poll was 50-50 as well so we still don’t have a NO lead in a poll.


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[ronaldo7]

I wouldn’t say that. They got their headline, so money well spent.


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Full blown discussion on Marr with the BBC Scotland political editor I believe...job done.

[allmodcons]

So weird that it wasn't weighted when all others appear to be. You'd imagine someone will be getting sore knuckles for that. I saw JMS say that weighting wouldn't make much difference but it's a subject I know little about. In any event it doesn't do anyone any favours to rely on it if trends are what's being looked at.

Why would the Scotland on Sunday produce a headline and then themselves state that the "poll is not comparable to previous polls, has not been properly weighted and should be treated with caution" :rolleyes:

Then this from Prof John Curtice confirming that the Sunday Times headline was a misrepresentation too

In today's @Panelbase (https://twitter.com/Panelbase)@SundayTimesSco (https://twitter.com/SundayTimesSco) poll, which shows Yes 46 No 47. When Don't Knows are excluded numbers are Yes 50 No 50. Same happened on most recent @Survation (https://twitter.com/Survation)@Daily_Record (https://twitter.com/Daily_Record) poll - 1 pt No lead with DKs in; none w/out. In both cases just 2-3 more people said No than Yes!

Suits your side of the debate ODS, but it's a sad state of affairs.

(https://twitter.com/SundayTimesSco)

[Ozyhibby]

I must admit, I never thought we would get to the stage where the unionist media were producing fake polls. This is going to be a very dirty election campaign.


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[JimBHibees]

Full blown discussion on Marr with the BBC Scotland political editor I believe...job done.

Absolutely job done

[Ozyhibby]

Absolutely job done

And of course yet another case of Sarah Smith misleading the public to the benefit of the unionists.


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[JimBHibees]

I must admit, I never thought we would get to the stage where the unionist media were producing fake polls. This is going to be a very dirty election campaign.


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Dirty tricks all over the place at the moment. Will only get worse. The spirit of Goebbels lives on.

[ronaldo7]

And of course yet another case of Sarah Smith misleading the public to the benefit of the unionists.


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I'm sure she put it through the fact checking service prior to commenting on it.

[JimBHibees]

And of course yet another case of Sarah Smith misleading the public to the benefit of the unionists.


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Utterly shameless. Really respected her father as well whose sudden death was a huge loss to politics in the country.

[degenerated]

https://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2021/03/an-extraordinary-weekend-when-media.html?m=1

Turns out the result of the panel base poll was 50-50 as well so we still don’t have a NO lead in a poll.


Sent from my iPhone using TapatalkSaw John Curtice pointing that out on twitter https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210307/6d9057928ba10db8239992abadc46aa2.jpg

[One Day Soon]

Why would the Scotland on Sunday produce a headline and then themselves state that the "poll is not comparable to previous polls, has not been properly weighted and should be treated with caution" :rolleyes:

Then this from Prof John Curtice confirming that the Sunday Times headline was a misrepresentation too

In today's @Panelbase (https://twitter.com/Panelbase)@SundayTimesSco (https://twitter.com/SundayTimesSco) poll, which shows Yes 46 No 47. When Don't Knows are excluded numbers are Yes 50 No 50. Same happened on most recent @Survation (https://twitter.com/Survation)@Daily_Record (https://twitter.com/Daily_Record) poll - 1 pt No lead with DKs in; none w/out. In both cases just 2-3 more people said No than Yes!

Suits your side of the debate ODS, but it's a sad state of affairs.

(https://twitter.com/SundayTimesSco)



I'm not sure it does suit my side of the debate. It's a very short term marginal benefit to get for the subsequent down side of the polls effectively being heavily qualified. The trend is the marker and the stronger point. I'd say both papers saw an opportunity to sell more papers with a sensational splash and then chose to deliberately massage the numbers they ran with unadjusted to permit the headline. MI5 won't be happy with that kind of freelancing.

There's enough disinformation around on both sides without adding to it, particularly with stuff that is transparently obvious and will be immediately identified as such.

[G B Young]

Typically, you weight various subsamples of the poll up and down to make sure you have the right numbers of male/female, age ranges, voters for each party at the last election etc.

Turnout weighting usually just means you ask people how likely they are to vote. Then some firms will exclude people who say they aren’t certain to vote or people who are less than 8/10 to vote. So it’s pretty simple to do.

Thanks.

Does weighting tend to alter the results of polls to a significant degree?

[Hibrandenburg]

I must admit, I never thought we would get to the stage where the unionist media were producing fake polls. This is going to be a very dirty election campaign.


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I think this UK government is capable of much worse than dirty to preserve the union. They have more than just the media at their beck and call, but also numerous other unsavoury governmental institutions that are there solely to protect the UK from perceived enemies foreign and internal. I have little doubt that this government would be prepared to go all in to prevent the break-up of the UK and their followers would back them at the polls.

[lapsedhibee]

I must admit, I never thought we would get to the stage where the unionist media were producing fake polls. This is going to be a very dirty election campaign.


It's a Vote Leave government. Dishonesty's what they do.

[JimBHibees]

I think this UK government is capable of much worse than dirty to preserve the union. They have more than just the media at their beck and call, but also numerous other unsavoury governmental institutions that are there solely to protect the UK from perceived enemies foreign and internal. I have little doubt that this government would be prepared to go all in to prevent the break-up of the UK and their followers would back them at the polls.

Undoubtedly

[Ozyhibby]

https://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2021/03/matchettgate-story-of-how-unionist.html?m=1

More on the dodgy polls.


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[allmodcons]

I'm not sure it does suit my side of the debate. It's a very short term marginal benefit to get for the subsequent down side of the polls effectively being heavily qualified. The trend is the marker and the stronger point. I'd say both papers saw an opportunity to sell more papers with a sensational splash and then chose to deliberately massage the numbers they ran with unadjusted to permit the headline. MI5 won't be happy with that kind of freelancing.

There's enough disinformation around on both sides without adding to it, particularly with stuff that is transparently obvious and will be immediately identified as such.

Despite your politics being ***** :wink: You're no fool.

Newspaper headlines are aimed at a particular audience and the headlines today definitely suited your side of the debate.

Making the initial impact is what they are all about. Lots of voters don't read much beyond the headlines and the vast majority definitely do not look for or read the retractions that follow a misrepresentation.

Sarah Smith is a case in point this week. She misrepresents comments about the FM in front of a TV audience of millions and apologises on twitter to her 23000 or followers!

Judging by the huge outpouring of British Nationalism in Glasgow tonight I rest my case. Or did something else happen today?

[One Day Soon]

Despite your politics being ***** :wink: You're no fool.

Newspaper headlines are aimed at a particular audience and the headlines today definitely suited your side of the debate.

Making the initial impact is what they are all about. Lots of voters don't read much beyond the headlines and the vast majority definitely do not look for or read the retractions that follow a misrepresentation.

Sarah Smith is a case in point this week. She misrepresents the FM in front of a TV audience of millions and apologies on twitter to her 23000 or followers!

Judging by the huge outpouring of British Nationalism in Glasgow tonight I rest my case. Or did something else happen today?

I’m just catching up now on today’s and yesterday’s events in Yes city. In particular through the lens of the FM’s tweet on the matter and the responses. She’s being flayed by Rangers AND Celtic fans and even Nat supporters and members (or they say they are) for being too tough and not being tough enough on Rangers and their fans.

This is not something I make a habit of but WTF do people expect her to do on this one? It’s infuriating to see and bloody dangerous too but these are pretty large numbers of people and I cant see it’s particularly easy for the police to mass arrest them. This may actually be the first time I’ve ever had sympathy for her, no FM has the power to control large numbers of determined cretins.

[Moulin Yarns]

I’m just catching up now on today’s and yesterday’s events in Yes city. In particular through the lens of the FM’s tweet on the matter and the responses. She’s being flayed by Rangers AND Celtic fans and even Nat supporters and members (or they say they are) for being too tough and not being tough enough on Rangers and their fans.

This is not something I make a habit of but WTF do people expect her to do on this one? It’s infuriating to see and bloody dangerous too but these are pretty large numbers of people and I cant see it’s particularly easy for the police to mass arrest them. This may actually be the first time I’ve ever had sympathy for her, no FM has the power to control large numbers of determined cretins.

Kettle them, then arrest them as they are released 😂

[Future17]

I’m just catching up now on today’s and yesterday’s events in Yes city. In particular through the lens of the FM’s tweet on the matter and the responses. She’s being flayed by Rangers AND Celtic fans and even Nat supporters and members (or they say they are) for being too tough and not being tough enough on Rangers and their fans.

This is not something I make a habit of but WTF do people expect her to do on this one? It’s infuriating to see and bloody dangerous too but these are pretty large numbers of people and I cant see it’s particularly easy for the police to mass arrest them. This may actually be the first time I’ve ever had sympathy for her, no FM has the power to control large numbers of determined cretins.

What I don't understand is why they haven't learned to "police" them by hitting them where it hurts. Why not just call yesterday's game off when the fans turned up at the stadium? Or threaten to show Meghan Markle's interview instead of Ant & Dec's Saturday Night Takeaway? Or transfer Phil back to a ward where the nurses are getting 1% pay rises?

[Bangkok Hibby]

I must admit, I never thought we would get to the stage where the unionist media were producing fake polls. This is going to be a very dirty election campaign.


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Nothing should surprise you. Its why independence won't happen.

[Smartie]

I’m just catching up now on today’s and yesterday’s events in Yes city. In particular through the lens of the FM’s tweet on the matter and the responses. She’s being flayed by Rangers AND Celtic fans and even Nat supporters and members (or they say they are) for being too tough and not being tough enough on Rangers and their fans.

This is not something I make a habit of but WTF do people expect her to do on this one? It’s infuriating to see and bloody dangerous too but these are pretty large numbers of people and I cant see it’s particularly easy for the police to mass arrest them. This may actually be the first time I’ve ever had sympathy for her, no FM has the power to control large numbers of determined cretins.

I agree that she’s in an almost impossible position but I do think more could have been done by way of public communication leading up to the weekend.

Rangers should have been leaned on heavily to discourage their fans from going to Glasgow. Anyone and everyone should have been tweeting the “stay at home” message.

Sturgeon’s public messaging has been good throughout and she’s had an outstanding level of compliance from those who would not naturally agree with her political beliefs.

I’m a bit apprehensive about what happens from here.

We’re divided on all sorts of subjects at the moment though, including the thread title. That is going to make any number of jobs more difficult for a FM, whoever that happens to be.

[Jones28]

I’m just catching up now on today’s and yesterday’s events in Yes city. In particular through the lens of the FM’s tweet on the matter and the responses. She’s being flayed by Rangers AND Celtic fans and even Nat supporters and members (or they say they are) for being too tough and not being tough enough on Rangers and their fans.

This is not something I make a habit of but WTF do people expect her to do on this one? It’s infuriating to see and bloody dangerous too but these are pretty large numbers of people and I cant see it’s particularly easy for the police to mass arrest them. This may actually be the first time I’ve ever had sympathy for her, no FM has the power to control large numbers of determined cretins.

She should have been down there herself, cuffing the ***** too tightly with cable ties and lobbing their smoke bombs back in to the crowd.

[Ozyhibby]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210308/a88fdd92e209b31e195403641ff0fcd5.jpg


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[JeMeSouviens]

From Savanta ComRes:


Savanta ComRes inverviewed 1,015 Scottish adults aged 16+ online from 4th - 6th March 2021. Data were weighted to be representative of all Scottish adults by age, sex, region, 2019 GE past vote and 2014 Independence Referendum past vote. The voting intention was not weighted by likelihood to vote and should not be treated as a headline Savanta ComRes voting intention. The voting intention was asked to give The Scotsman an indication as to current levels of Yes/No support. Savanta ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

So sounds like The Scotsman were at it. :rolleyes:

[cabbageandribs1875]

https://scontent.fman1-2.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/158727065_3706929899354465_2498934965869178040_n.j pg?_nc_cat=106&ccb=1-3&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_ohc=t1VLCzlLoqcAX8w04cb&_nc_ht=scontent.fman1-2.fna&oh=48e8745c64c69e15c206bb139bfe0a7f&oe=606C33FA



just wait until the next budget and not independent...assuming we still have Holyrood if not

[allmodcons]

From Savanta ComRes:



So sounds like The Scotsman were at it. :rolleyes:

No surprise there then but, as I've said before, it's a sad state of affairs.

[JimBHibees]

No surprise there then but, as I've said before, it's a sad state of affairs.

Just goes to prove the full on concerted campaign with numerous organisations playing their part. In the main the population of the Uk are played like fiddles with so many individuals only to happy to play their part in the misinformation. Surprised some can sleep at night.

[Mr Grieves]

Craig Levein on sportsound has just called for Sturgeon to resign. Hibbies, are you yes yet? :greengrin

[Kato]

Just goes to prove the full on concerted campaign with numerous organisations playing their part. In the main the population of the Uk are played like fiddles with so many individuals only to happy to play their part in the misinformation. Surprised some can sleep at night.

What's worse - being played like a fiddle or recognising the lies and going along with the dance anyway?

[cabbageandribs1875]

Danny McCafferty on Twitter: "Scottish Secretary "Union"Jack has confirmed Johnson will take legal action to prevent Indyref2 if electorate vote in a pro Indy Holyrood Govt..thus conceding he hasn't the powers as PM/ confirming SNP strategy is valid. A majority in May means Indyref2.. Up to him to go to court" / Twitter (https://twitter.com/dmccafferty49/status/1369315210662735873)


but.. but.. i thought the scruffy blonde dude just has to keep saying naw and his word is final :confused:


see yi in court you bumbling buffoon

[JeMeSouviens]

Another Savanta ComRes poll out - properly weighted this time. :wink:

Y49 N51

The good news of sorts (or straw I'm clutching at anyway :wink:) is that the N vote is hardly up at all. Movement is mostly Y->DK. You'd expect a bit of wavering given the inquiry etc.

There are no Holyrood numbers in this poll afaik, but I suspect the SNP's chances of getting a majority on their own must be getting tight to say the least.

[CloudSquall]

I'd probably prefer an SNP-Green coalition or green support for an SNP minority government in normal circumstances but in this case I hope the SNP get the majority just to avoid having "the SNP didn't get a majority so no referendum" repeated ad nauseam by unionist MPs.

[Ozyhibby]

I'd probably prefer an SNP-Green coalition or green support for an SNP minority government in normal circumstances but in this case I hope the SNP get the majority just to avoid having "the SNP didn't get a majority so no referendum" repeated ad nauseam by unionist MPs.

The best thing for Scotland is to have another referendum just so we can move on to other subjects like education, etc.
The best way to get that is voting SNP.
Once we’ve had the referendum we can move on to other issues but there is no chance before that.


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[Berwickhibby]

The best thing for Scotland is to have another referendum just so we can move on to other subjects like education, etc.
The best way to get that is voting SNP.
Once we’ve had the referendum we can move on to other issues but there is no chance before that.


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Surely the Scottish Governments job is to deal with things like education NOW!! and then move on to independence at a later date

[Ozyhibby]

Surely the Scottish Governments job is to deal with things like education NOW!! and then move on to independence at a later date

When is later? It can’t be put off forever. The sooner the better. Why do you not want people to have a vote?


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[ronaldo7]

I'd probably prefer an SNP-Green coalition or green support for an SNP minority government in normal circumstances but in this case I hope the SNP get the majority just to avoid having "the SNP didn't get a majority so no referendum" repeated ad nauseam by unionist MPs.

They've already started. I heard it said the other day that if the SNP only got a 1 seat majority, would it be a big enough majority to make the call for Indyref2. They'll have to take the Scottish people to court. Good luck with that one, Union Jack.

[JeMeSouviens]

Craig Levein on sportsound has just called for Sturgeon to resign. Hibbies, are you yes yet? :greengrin

https://twitter.com/LewisGMitchell/status/1369358830186926085?s=20

Jeez, I thought you were joking. :rolleyes:

Not possible for CL to fall further in my estimation though, so at least there's that.

[weecounty hibby]

Its a disgrace that BBC ask that ****wit his opinion on football never mind letting him loose on politics.

[Northernhibee]

Craig Levein on sportsound has just called for Sturgeon to resign. Hibbies, are you yes yet? :greengrin

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dhg7CULWsAEjZN3.jpg

"Aye, wrap this roond ye you cardigan wearing, Rover driving ponce"

[StevieC]

I was sceptical last week at the news of a big surge in SNP membership (10,000) after Nicola had given evidence for the Salmond enquiry committee .. but I’ve just been informed that the membership at my local branch has increased by nearly 10% this month, so seems it is probably a legitimate claim.

[Mr Grieves]

https://twitter.com/LewisGMitchell/status/1369358830186926085?s=20

Jeez, I thought you were joking. :rolleyes:

Not possible for CL to fall further in my estimation though, so at least there's that.

I'm wondering if he's said it to wind up Michael Stewart :greengrin

[degenerated]

I'm wondering if he's said it to wind up Michael Stewart :greengrinNah, Levein is a unionist through and through. In an interview in one of the broadsheets, around the time he was Scotland manager, they asked him about his preference for a national anthem and he suggested it should be god save the Queen.

[Kato]

Nah, Levein is a unionist through and through. In an interview in one of the broadsheets, around the time he was Scotland manager, they asked him about his preference for a national anthem and he suggested it should be god save the Queen.

Blimey, or was that just one of his dry quips?

[degenerated]

Blimey, or was that just one of his dry quips?It didn't read that way

[Kato]

It didn't read that way

Yeah, the question was just one my dry quips.

[Jonnyboy]

Yeah, the question was just one my dry quips.

😂

[Kato]

😂

:wink:

[CloudSquall]

To give Levein due it must be hard to give up the opportunity to profit from the only thing (apart from Hearts) that unites the Morningside living, land rover driving, cardigan wearing, rugby loving, Alister Darling and Ruth Davidson worshipping unionists with the Section N, would be up to their knees at Ibrox if they could afford the bus ticket, Tommy Robinson obsessed alt right nazis that combined make up the Hearts support.

[Ozyhibby]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210311/09d3f26a3e38c2e3b31c9c4d49f8abc9.jpg
Another dip for the SNP. They are going to need an impressive campaign or another chance will be lost and we’ll spend another 5 years talking about an indyref.


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[DaveF]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210311/09d3f26a3e38c2e3b31c9c4d49f8abc9.jpg
Another dip for the SNP. They are going to need an impressive campaign or another chance will be lost and we’ll spend another 5 years talking about an indyref.


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I don't really trust any poll but looking at the above what kind of voter flips from pro Indy to anti Indy just like that? It's one hell of a view change.

[Ozyhibby]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210311/735c76e07caa6d06c056fb91b82b7aad.jpg
Tells you all you need to know about unionists. ‘Easily hold her own at Westminster’? How inferior they think we should all feel that we should view Westminster as the big boys parliament.


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[Bristolhibby]

I don't really trust any poll but looking at the above what kind of voter flips from pro Indy to anti Indy just like that? It's one hell of a view change.

I know right?

Flipping from SNP to Tory is one hell of a flip. Talk about being swayed.

The maddening thing it’s these floaters that hold iIndependence in their hand.

J

[CropleyWasGod]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210311/735c76e07caa6d06c056fb91b82b7aad.jpg
Tells you all you need to know about unionists. ‘Easily hold her own at Westminster’? How inferior they think we should all feel that we should view Westminster as the big boys parliament.


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That's been an issue with Labour since day 1 of the Parliament. They sent their Premier League people to London, and left us with First Division players. The SNP kept most of their first team up here.

[JeMeSouviens]

I know right?

Flipping from SNP to Tory is one hell of a flip. Talk about being swayed.

The maddening thing it’s these floaters that hold iIndependence in their hand.

J

SNP -3 Tory +3 Lab Lib 0

Is margin of error stuff but also could be explained by movement SNP->Lab/Lib combined with Lab/Lib->Tory. Or just SNP reluctance to vote combined with Lab/Lib->Tory. The quoted figures are with the DKs removed. The DKs may have increased substantially, you'd have to check the tables.

[CloudSquall]

I'm struggling to think of another country that has amongst it's ranks journalists like Daisley that love to put down and trash their own country in order to suck up to another.


It's sad as **** and lacking any hint of self respect, made worse that they immediately start to greet about "abuse" when taken to task on their total pish.

[Mr Grieves]

Another poll

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1369978992829337602?s=19

Scottish parliament voting intention(s):

Constituency:
SNP: 52% (-4)
CON: 22% (+3)
LAB: 17% (+2)
LDEM: 6% (-)
GRN: 2% (-)

List:
SNP: 45% (-2)
CON: 21% (+1)
LAB: 16% (+3)
LDEM: 5% (-1)
GRN: 6% (-1)

via @YouGov, 04 - 08 Mar
Chgs. w/ 10 Nov 2020

[SHODAN]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210311/735c76e07caa6d06c056fb91b82b7aad.jpg
Tells you all you need to know about unionists. ‘Easily hold her own at Westminster’? How inferior they think we should all feel that we should view Westminster as the big boys parliament.


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If Jackie Baillie could hold her own at Westminster she'd be at Westminster.

[The Harp Awakes]

Another poll

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1369978992829337602?s=19

Scottish parliament voting intention(s):

Constituency:
SNP: 52% (-4)
CON: 22% (+3)
LAB: 17% (+2)
LDEM: 6% (-)
GRN: 2% (-)

List:
SNP: 45% (-2)
CON: 21% (+1)
LAB: 16% (+3)
LDEM: 5% (-1)
GRN: 6% (-1)

via @YouGov, 04 - 08 Mar
Chgs. w/ 10 Nov 2020

Although there is a clear decline in the SNP support from the previous opinion poll, those figures are still very good for the SNP and would almost certainly give them a clear majority. At the last Holyrood election the SNP polled 46.5% in the constituency and 41.7% in the regional vote.

[Ozyhibby]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210311/f73ccdf4c7ee1fa8a0d4bfd8eca490ee.jpg


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[CloudSquall]

3 MSPs for the Greens would be piss poor beyond imagination for them, I was quite shocked by the low polling figures for them in that specific poll.

[wookie70]

3 MSPs for the Greens would be piss poor beyond imagination for them, I was quite shocked by the low polling figures for them in that specific poll.There will be voters like me who now see Independence as the only show in town. Manifesto and politics wise I mostly align with The Greens. I have mostly voted for them in Scottish elections but I will only vote SNP now as Independence is everything and we may only get one further shot. The SNP are the conduit for that Independence and branch pipes will lower pressure

[Ryan91]

3 MSPs for the Greens would be piss poor beyond imagination for them, I was quite shocked by the low polling figures for them in that specific poll.

YouGov had 3% voting for the Scottish Socialist Party in the region list, despite the SSP not actually fielding any candidates afaik. Likely skewed regional votes a bit

[Ozyhibby]

I think the seat projections are very hard to do even when you have all the polling data.


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[Radium]

https://twitter.com/ballotboxscot/status/1370361991060205573?s=21

Only a local council by-election


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[Keith_M]

Copied this from the link above.


Conservatives still ahead of Labour, so the change in leadership hasn't (yet) made much difference in regards to the May Elections.

There is definitely a drop in the SNP vote, though.


24428

[Glory Lurker]

https://twitter.com/ballotboxscot/status/1370361991060205573?s=21

Only a local council by-election


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Tories unseat The Good Guys at Leaderdale and Melrose though. Can't find the vote splits though, and hoping it's one of those technical gains instead of an actual one.

[JeMeSouviens]

Tories unseat The Good Guys at Leaderdale and Melrose though. Can't find the vote splits though, and hoping it's one of those technical gains instead of an actual one.

SNP vote is substantially up, but since everyone went up I'm assuming that there was a popular Independent candidate last time. Calling these type of by-elections a "gain" is stretching things to its limits, but of course that doesn't stop an avalanche of ********ry on twitter etc. :rolleyes:

Leaderdale and Melrose (Borders) By-Election, 1st Prefs:

Con - 1380 (39.9%, +8.0)
SNP - 1042 (30.2%, +12.4)
LD - 538 (15.6%, +6.2)
D (Ind) - 159 (4.6%, +4.6)
Grn - 152 (4.4%, +4.4)
Lab - 115 (3.3%, +3.3)
W (Ind) - 69 (2%, +2)

Con elected stage 7.

[JeMeSouviens]

Livingston South By-Election 11/03/2021, First Preferences:

SNP - 2465 (43.9%, +3.0)
Labour - 1382 (24.6%, -10.9)
Conservative - 989 (17.6%, -1.8)
Ind - 332 (5.9%, +5.9)
Green - 234 (4.2%, +1.7)
Lib Dem - 185 (3.3%, +1.5)
UKIP - 29 (0.5%, +0.5)

SNP elected stage 7.



UKIP????? :confused:

[lapsedhibee]

Livingston South By-Election 11/03/2021, First Preferences:

UKIP????? :confused:

Now a nostalgia party? (Not that it ever wasn't.)

[Ozyhibby]

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-s-new-approach-to-an-independence-referendum/amp?__twitter_impression=true

Change in approach?


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[Jack]

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-s-new-approach-to-an-independence-referendum/amp?__twitter_impression=true

Change in approach?


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Expect to hear reckless much more often.

[CloudSquall]

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-s-new-approach-to-an-independence-referendum/amp?__twitter_impression=true

Change in approach?


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Interesting to see how many times it refers to a required SNP majority when a Scottish journalist should know that an SNP/Green majority is a pro independency majority.

[cabbageandribs1875]

https://scontent.fman1-2.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/160131137_10159667811458923_2219661586890938044_n. jpg?_nc_cat=105&ccb=1-3&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=IjzMjK8m7oYAX8KXkze&_nc_ht=scontent.fman1-2.fna&oh=60695ff53e44dde2c3f69d2f9d9ef053&oe=60726C04

[Bostonhibby]

https://scontent.fman1-2.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/160131137_10159667811458923_2219661586890938044_n. jpg?_nc_cat=105&ccb=1-3&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=IjzMjK8m7oYAX8KXkze&_nc_ht=scontent.fman1-2.fna&oh=60695ff53e44dde2c3f69d2f9d9ef053&oe=60726C04Jeez, Roger Whittaker's not aged well.

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[Ozyhibby]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210314/d4f9f9c97df43b41b6381d9a1dd089fa.jpg

Johnson admitting that he won’t be able to stop an indyref if the SNP/Greens get a majority.


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[cabbageandribs1875]

a repugnant Tory actually used these words "Stench of Sleaze and Scandal" :rolleyes:

https://scontent.fman1-2.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/160995141_10226019326729303_7782081707084070054_n. jpg?_nc_cat=105&ccb=1-3&_nc_sid=825194&_nc_ohc=ft8avgf_1sgAX8VKJsd&_nc_ht=scontent.fman1-2.fna&oh=38c6fe9296e14555895ea7e544491271&oe=60750DF7



still, that's the 2nd piece i've saw from a tory in recent weeks about the list votes, i'm again back to thinking SNP 1 & 2 would see very few list seats picked up, just four the last time, i don't think i've read so much confusion on fb indy groups surrounding those list votes, SNP 1 & 2/SNP 1 Greens 2 :hmmm:

[lapsedhibee]

a repugnant Tory actually used these words "Stench of Sleaze and Scandal" :rolleyes:

https://scontent.fman1-2.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/160995141_10226019326729303_7782081707084070054_n. jpg?_nc_cat=105&ccb=1-3&_nc_sid=825194&_nc_ohc=ft8avgf_1sgAX8VKJsd&_nc_ht=scontent.fman1-2.fna&oh=38c6fe9296e14555895ea7e544491271&oe=60750DF7



still, that's the 2nd piece i've saw from a tory in recent weeks about the list votes, i'm again back to thinking SNP 1 & 2 would see very few list seats picked up, just four the last time, i don't think i've read so much confusion on fb indy groups surrounding those list votes, SNP 1 & 2/SNP 1 Greens 2 :hmmm:

Can you even have a 'nailed-on near-certainty'? Shirley being nailed-on means certain, not partly certain? :confused:

[Ozyhibby]

a repugnant Tory actually used these words "Stench of Sleaze and Scandal" :rolleyes:

https://scontent.fman1-2.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/160995141_10226019326729303_7782081707084070054_n. jpg?_nc_cat=105&ccb=1-3&_nc_sid=825194&_nc_ohc=ft8avgf_1sgAX8VKJsd&_nc_ht=scontent.fman1-2.fna&oh=38c6fe9296e14555895ea7e544491271&oe=60750DF7



still, that's the 2nd piece i've saw from a tory in recent weeks about the list votes, i'm again back to thinking SNP 1 & 2 would see very few list seats picked up, just four the last time, i don't think i've read so much confusion on fb indy groups surrounding those list votes, SNP 1 & 2/SNP 1 Greens 2 :hmmm:

I’m usually SNP 1&2 but think I’ll go SNP 1 and Greens 2. In Lothian, with the way the polls are, there is no chance of an SNP win on the list votes. Greens is best chance of increasing pro Indy vote.


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[Just Alf]

I’m usually SNP 1&2 but think I’ll go SNP 1 and Greens 2. In Lothian, with the way the polls are, there is no chance of an SNP win on the list votes. Greens is best chance of increasing pro Indy vote.


Sent from my iPhone using TapatalkI'm Edinburgh West and that's my thoughts too (even if I get millions of lib dem leaflets!) ... unless anyone clever can give better guidance!

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[CropleyWasGod]

I’m usually SNP 1&2 but think I’ll go SNP 1 and Greens 2. In Lothian, with the way the polls are, there is no chance of an SNP win on the list votes. Greens is best chance of increasing pro Indy vote.


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So why not Greens 1 and 2?

[StevieC]

i don't think i've read so much confusion on fb indy groups surrounding those list votes, SNP 1 & 2/SNP 1 Greens 2 :hmmm:

I agree .. there needs to be better communication regarding the List vote and potential constituency results within each region. In some regions SNP2 could allow more unionist MSPs than Greens 2.

[CloudSquall]

I think (if I'm not wrong) the SNP are really only benefiting from the list vote in the South of Scotland, elsewhere they pick up so many (if not all) FPTP seats that SNP list votes are being pissed away if maximising pro indy MSPs is the goal.


However I'm guessing that even with a healthy SNP / Green majority Ruth and co would be out with plan F "SNP list vote is down, clearly no appetite for indy ref 2"...

[Ozyhibby]

So why not Greens 1 and 2?

Because SNP can still win the constituency?

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210314/39676877066ebf76ee0dfdda3bf529e0.jpg
Won’t be easy though.


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[CropleyWasGod]

Because SNP can still win the constituency?

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210314/39676877066ebf76ee0dfdda3bf529e0.jpg
Won’t be easy though.


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I meant generally:)

[cabbageandribs1875]

I agree .. there needs to be better communication regarding the List vote and potential constituency results within each region. In some regions SNP2 could allow more unionist MSPs than Greens 2.



nearly 900k list votes brought us a grand total of 4..yes FOUR SNP MSP's the last time, i just don't understand why the SNP are not doing what the tories are now doing, tories slagging off the Greens last week and yet they themselves are desperate to fall into bed with Labour..which apparently sarwar is perfectly prepared to do, i for one am perfectly happy to have Greens pushing their policies against the SNP to get something back for their voting with the SNP in government. i also understand that it's only certain Scottish constituencies that would benefit from more list votes going to the Greens, WHY won't the SNP just play the system, the system that was specifically designed in the first place by Blair/dewar to stop the SNP getting full control, i think we will need those Greens list votes this time.


besides, this system stinks when we have persistent losers like Murdo freakin Fraser in our parliament.

[allmodcons]

So why not Greens 1 and 2?
How many constituency seats are they standing a candidate in?

[Ozyhibby]

Not sure if it's been announced yet. I think the plan was to do them all.

I’m pretty sure that they lost a lot of support last time for standing a candidate in an SNP marginal. I think they will avoid that again.


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[allmodcons]

Not sure if it's been announced yet. I think the plan was to do them all.

That's just stupid. I am solid SNP but might lend my vote to the Greens on the Highlands list. I will, however, be totally pissed off if they split the pro independence vote in any constituency and let a Unionist come through. IMO them standing a candidate in Edinburgh Central in 2016 let Ruth Davidson take the seat.

[CropleyWasGod]

That's just stupid. I am solid SNP but might lend my vote to the Greens on the Highlands list. I will, however, be totally pissed off if they split the pro independence vote in any constituency and let a Unionist come through. IMO them standing a candidate in Edinburgh Central in 2016 let Ruth Davidson take the seat.

I deleted my post because what I thought I'd read was not the case.

[allmodcons]

If the SNP and Greens played the system properly they could have a serious pro Independence majority.

[Ozyhibby]

That's just stupid. I am solid SNP but might lend my vote to the Greens on the Highlands list. I will, however, be totally pissed off if they split the pro independence vote in any constituency and let a Unionist come through. IMO them standing a candidate in Edinburgh Central in 2016 let Ruth Davidson take the seat.

They are planning to run with the same candidate again in that constituency so it may happen again.


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[cabbageandribs1875]

They are planning to run with the same candidate again in that constituency so it may happen again.


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Angus Robertson contesting that seat this time around

[allmodcons]

They are planning to run with the same candidate again in that constituency so it may happen again.


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That's just ****ing stupid. If they want people like me to lend them a vote on the list they need to be sensible in their approach to constituency seats like Edinburgh Central

[Ozyhibby]

Angus Robertson contesting that seat this time around

And not up against Davidson either. Name recognition very important and Davidson’s profile helped her to a very narrow win.


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[Ozyhibby]

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/19160009.analysis-johnson-didnt-say-indyref2-interesting/?ref=twtrec

Johnson drops his plan to refuse a referendum.


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[Alex Trager]

Is there likely to be a tool which can help people identify where to place their pro indy vote as per your constituency?

I know there is one in the opposite direction

[StevieC]

Is there likely to be a tool which can help people identify where to place their pro indy vote as per your constituency?

I know there is one in the opposite direction

There should be, but it won’t come from the SNP. They are sticking with SNP1&2 regardless. Seems they’ve no interest in an pro-Independence majority, it has to be an SNP majority or it’s a failure.
And to an extent, I can see where they are coming from as Westminster and MSM will question a referendum if there isn’t an SNP majority, regardless of Greens List seats.

[Ozyhibby]

There should be, but it won’t come from the SNP. They are sticking with SNP1&2 regardless. Seems they’ve no interest in an pro-Independence majority, it has to be an SNP majority or it’s a failure.
And to an extent, I can see where they are coming from as Westminster and MSM will question a referendum if there isn’t an SNP majority, regardless of Greens List seats.

The SNP can’t advise people to vote for anyone else. You get kicked out of political parties for saying you intend to vote for someone else.


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[StevieC]

The SNP can’t advise people to vote for anyone else. You get kicked out of political parties for saying you intend to vote for someone else.

Unless you are Scottish Labour or Conservative. 🤔

That’s kinda what I was alluding to, that SNP won’t entertain anything other than SNP 1&2. However, there are lots of pro-Indepence and YES groups that are asking the serious question about the possibility of a strong pro-Independence majority with some tactical SNP 1 Greens 2 voting. Whilst not openly supporting the idea, I might have thought that the SNP might at least debate the concept rather than quickly just shut it down.
The catchphrase I’ve been seeing from SNP stalwarts is that anything other than SNP1&2 will allow unionist parties to pick up additional seats, which is certainly not the case.

The big elephant in the room is the two new Independence parties that have now officially registered themselves for the upcoming election. 🙄

[Ozyhibby]

Unless you are Scottish Labour or Conservative. [emoji848]

That’s kinda what I was alluding to, that SNP won’t entertain anything other than SNP 1&2. However, there are lots of pro-Indepence and YES groups that are asking the serious question about the possibility of a strong pro-Independence majority with some tactical SNP 1 Greens 2 voting. Whilst not openly supporting the idea, I might have thought that the SNP might at least debate the concept rather than quickly just shut it down.
The catchphrase I’ve been seeing from SNP stalwarts is that anything other than SNP1&2 will allow unionist parties to pick up additional seats, which is certainly not the case.

The big elephant in the room is the two new Independence parties that have now officially registered themselves for the upcoming election. [emoji849]

The two new Indy parties won’t get a single seat but might stop the greens from getting one or two. Unless they can get Salmond on board then they will sink without a trace. They are nobodies, with no major finance and no way of generating support outside of anti-snp Twitter. 52 days out from the election and I reckon about 99% of the population couldn’t tell you who they are or even what they are called.
Those interested in a tactical list vote for independence really only have the greens. Especially in Lothians.
In the Highlands and borders though, both votes SNP probably best.


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[18Craig75]

Would it be possible for an SNP outright majority if a significant number of people have the Greens there second vote? Or would it depend on which constituency you were in? Must admit to not being able to wrap my head around the list vote.

A pro-Indy majority would be great but as others have said; WM and MSM media would paint it as a failure for the SNP when really the Scottish parliament isn’t designed for outright majorities.

[Moulin Yarns]

The two new Indy parties won’t get a single seat but might stop the greens from getting one or two. Unless they can get Salmond on board then they will sink without a trace. They are nobodies, with no major finance and no way of generating support outside of anti-snp Twitter. 52 days out from the election and I reckon about 99% of the population couldn’t tell you who they are or even what they are called.
Those interested in a tactical list vote for independence really only have the greens. Especially in Lothians.
In the Highlands and borders though, both votes SNP probably best.


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Andy wightman is standing in highland as an independent. SNP 1 Andy 2.😉

[CropleyWasGod]

Andy wightman is standing in highland as an independent. SNP 1 Andy 2.😉

Why not the other way around?

[Ozyhibby]

Would it be possible for an SNP outright majority if a significant number of people have the Greens there second vote? Or would it depend on which constituency you were in? Must admit to not being able to wrap my head around the list vote.

A pro-Indy majority would be great but as others have said; WM and MSM media would paint it as a failure for the SNP when really the Scottish parliament isn’t designed for outright majorities.

A pro Indy majority is a pro Indy majority. WM can paint it how it likes but it doesn’t change what Scotland voted for. The parliament are still able to pass legislation for a 2nd referendum.


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[Ozyhibby]

Why not the other way around?

Wightman will only be standing as a list candidate.


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[18Craig75]

A pro Indy majority is a pro Indy majority. WM can paint it how it likes but it doesn’t change what Scotland voted for. The parliament are still able to pass legislation for a 2nd referendum.


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Yes, you and I know that (as well as I’m sure everyone on this thread) but general public, undecideds, might not. WM are using dirty tactics (as they always have done tbf) so I just think an outright SNP majority standing on a manifesto that explicitly says “vote for us for Indyref2” will have more gravitas than SNP & Green majority.

[CropleyWasGod]

Wightman will only be standing as a list candidate.


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Ah. I didn't realise that.:aok:

[JeMeSouviens]

Unless you are Scottish Labour or Conservative. 🤔

That’s kinda what I was alluding to, that SNP won’t entertain anything other than SNP 1&2. However, there are lots of pro-Indepence and YES groups that are asking the serious question about the possibility of a strong pro-Independence majority with some tactical SNP 1 Greens 2 voting. Whilst not openly supporting the idea, I might have thought that the SNP might at least debate the concept rather than quickly just shut it down.
The catchphrase I’ve been seeing from SNP stalwarts is that anything other than SNP1&2 will allow unionist parties to pick up additional seats, which is certainly not the case.

The big elephant in the room is the two new Independence parties that have now officially registered themselves for the upcoming election. 🙄

I don't think you will find an official example of Lab or Tory saying vote for anyone other than themselves. Usually couched in the language of "everybody vote for us here, we're the only ones who can stop the SNP".

As Ozy says, unless they can get Salmond, the 2 list parties will be competing for 1% if they're lucky. Ditto for Galloway and his motley crew.

[Keith_M]

I don't think you will find an official example of Lab or Tory saying vote for anyone other than themselves. Usually couched in the language of "everybody vote for us here, we're the only ones who can stop the SNP".

...


I've no idea of the context, but isn't that what Kezia Dugdale was accused of doing?

[JeMeSouviens]

I've no idea of the context, but isn't that what Kezia Dugdale was accused of doing?

You could argue she implied it with nod and a wink but she didn't actually say it:

https://www.glasgowtimes.co.uk/news/15301346.kezia-dugdale-urges-tactical-voting-to-oust-snp-but-only-for-labour-candidates/

[Keith_M]

You could argue she implied it with nod and a wink but she didn't actually say it:

https://www.glasgowtimes.co.uk/news/15301346.kezia-dugdale-urges-tactical-voting-to-oust-snp-but-only-for-labour-candidates/


That's true.

:aok:

[G B Young]

https://www.holyrood.com/news/view,opinion-poll-shows-57-per-cent-would-vote-to-remain-in-the-uk

Poll commissioned by Scotland in Union so make of it what you will.

[Ozyhibby]

https://www.holyrood.com/news/view,opinion-poll-shows-57-per-cent-would-vote-to-remain-in-the-uk

Poll commissioned by Scotland in Union so make of it what you will.

They asked a different question? [emoji23][emoji23][emoji23] It’s not a real poll on independence.


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[Peevemor]

https://www.holyrood.com/news/view,opinion-poll-shows-57-per-cent-would-vote-to-remain-in-the-uk

Poll commissioned by Scotland in Union so make of it what you will.What's that smell ...?

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210317/c00a0270be6362a846b4d1887efc7eec.jpg

[Mon Dieu4]

https://www.holyrood.com/news/view,opinion-poll-shows-57-per-cent-would-vote-to-remain-in-the-uk

Poll commissioned by Scotland in Union so make of it what you will.

That "magazine" is quite misleading, naming it Holyrood makes it seem like it's some internal or official insider magazine, everything I've seen on it seems to be anti SNP and Independence

I might start a magazine called Westminster and trash the Tories every day and call for independence

[Ozyhibby]

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/uk-politics-56403818?__twitter_impression=true


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[Stick]

Would it be possible for an SNP outright majority if a significant number of people have the Greens there second vote? Or would it depend on which constituency you were in? Must admit to not being able to wrap my head around the list vote.

A pro-Indy majority would be great but as others have said; WM and MSM media would paint it as a failure for the SNP when really the Scottish parliament isn’t designed for outright majorities.

Based on the 2016 vote, the results in Lothian were:-

Con 4 seats total
Lab 3 seats total
Lib Dem 1 seat total
Snp 6 seats total
Greens 2 seats total

So for indi 8 seats, remain 8 seats


If all snp voters gave their second vote to the greens the results would have been:-

Con 2 seats total
Lab 2 seats total
Lib Dem 1 seat total
Snp 6 seats total
Greens 5 seats total

So for indi 11 seats, remain 5 seats

Hope this helps.
If anyone from other areas want info let me know

[lapsedhibee]

Based on the 2016 vote, the results in Lothian were:-

Con 4 seats total
Lab 3 seats total
Lib Dem 1 seat total
Snp 6 seats total
Greens 2 seats total

So for indi 8 seats, remain 8 seats


If all snp voters gave their second vote to the greens the results would have been:-

Con 2 seats total
Lab 2 seats total
Lib Dem 1 seat total
Snp 6 seats total
Greens 5 seats total

So for indi 11 seats, remain 5 seats

Hope this helps.
If anyone from other areas want info let me know
:aok:

[cabbageandribs1875]

"insiders" in Iceland are saying Iceland will recognise a Yes majority and accept independent Scotland as a new state


EFTA nations, again not officially, see no barrier to Scotland joining within months of a Yes vote



so i'm hearing :)

[CropleyWasGod]

"insiders" in Iceland are saying Iceland will recognise a Yes majority and accept independent Scotland as a new state


EFTA nations, again not officially, see no barrier to Scotland joining within months of a Yes vote



so i'm hearing :)

Okayyyy... since this is something that will probably be a topic for debate soon.

EFTA... what's good about it? What's not good?

What does the EU have that's better? And worse?

Opinions from all sides of the house welcome. 😃

[Ozyhibby]

I would think an Indy Scotland would want to join EFTA to start with so that we could draw breath while we look at our options for joining the EU.


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[cabbageandribs1875]

Okayyyy... since this is something that will probably be a topic for debate soon.

EFTA... what's good about it? What's not good?

What does the EU have that's better? And worse?

Opinions from all sides of the house welcome. ��


for me it's more about realising there's at least four European countries that won't have a problem making trade deals with an independent Scotland, the only European country in the EU that i'm maybe unnecessarily less than optimistic about is Spain, for obvious reasons, so i don't see why other EU countries would have a problem admitting Scotland and would probably tell Spain to stfu ;) there's many articles from European news outlets, Germany,Holland, and even America stating an independent Scotland would be a pretty rich country, unfortunately there's only a few publications in the UK that will point this out to people in Scotland, but anyway, i'l wait for the more knowledgeable explaining all the good/bads etc, surely there's no downsides to either the EFTA or EU and it would be fantastic being part of something with other countries that aren't trying to dilute basic human rights :)

[Keith_M]

https://www.holyrood.com/news/view,opinion-poll-shows-57-per-cent-would-vote-to-remain-in-the-uk

Poll commissioned by Scotland in Union so make of it what you will.


Difficult to form an opinion...


"However, this survey used different wording from the others, asking whether people would vote to remain in the UK or leave rather than vote yes or no to independence.
...
Survation conducted the poll for pro-UK Scotland in Union between 9 and 12 March."


Is the argument against this poll based on Scottish people being to stupid to understand the question?

:dunno:

[SHODAN]

They're absolutely terrified of losing the nation that they allegedly subsidise.

[CropleyWasGod]

for me it's more about realising there's at least four European countries that won't have a problem making trade deals with an independent Scotland, the only European country in the EU that i'm maybe unnecessarily less than optimistic about is Spain, for obvious reasons, so i don't see why other EU countries would have a problem admitting Scotland and would probably tell Spain to stfu ;) there's many articles from European news outlets, Germany,Holland, and even America stating an independent Scotland would be a pretty rich country, unfortunately there's only a few publications in the UK that will point this out to people in Scotland, but anyway, i'l wait for the more knowledgeable explaining all the good/bads etc, surely there's no downsides to either the EFTA or EU and it would be fantastic being part of something with other countries that aren't trying to dilute basic human rights :)

Does EFTA require closed borders with non-members?

[wookie70]

Based on the 2016 vote, the results in Lothian were:-

Con 4 seats total
Lab 3 seats total
Lib Dem 1 seat total
Snp 6 seats total
Greens 2 seats total

So for indi 8 seats, remain 8 seats


If all snp voters gave their second vote to the greens the results would have been:-

Con 2 seats total
Lab 2 seats total
Lib Dem 1 seat total
Snp 6 seats total
Greens 5 seats total

So for indi 11 seats, remain 5 seats

Hope this helps.
If anyone from other areas want info let me know

I'm holding my nose and voting SNP and was going to give them my second vote. I was discussing this very issue the other day and I came to the conclusion that the SNP are more interested in power in a devolved Parliament than they are in Independence. The Greens will get my second vote now and frankly there should be a tactical alliance to make sure Indi parties destroy the Unionist Parties.

[JeMeSouviens]

Difficult to form an opinion...


"However, this survey used different wording from the others, asking whether people would vote to remain in the UK or leave rather than vote yes or no to independence.
...
Survation conducted the poll for pro-UK Scotland in Union between 9 and 12 March."


Is the argument against this poll based on Scottish people being to stupid to understand the question?

:dunno:

More like answering carelessly. If you are used to identifying as Remain it is surprisingly easy to not realise you are actually Leave on this new question. If this question becomes the norm then people will eventually get used to it.

[Jack]

"insiders" in Iceland are saying Iceland will recognise a Yes majority and accept independent Scotland as a new state


EFTA nations, again not officially, see no barrier to Scotland joining within months of a Yes vote



so i'm hearing :)

Its more Lidl and Aldi we'll need in an independent Scotland.

[Ozyhibby]

Does EFTA require closed borders with non-members?

They have free movement with the EU and are in the single market. Not in the customs union though. Not sure how it would affect our border with England but I’ve given up hope there won’t be some sort of border infrastructure at least in the short term while England comes to its senses.


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[JeMeSouviens]

Does EFTA require closed borders with non-members?

Depends what you mean by closed. The EFTA countries are all in Schengen so people can cross borders freely between them and the EU but they are not in the EU’s customs union so goods are stopped and checked.

[JeMeSouviens]

https://i.imgur.com/aMWLKfX.png

UK needs moved, obvs. :rolleyes:

[Ozyhibby]

https://i.imgur.com/aMWLKfX.png

UK needs moved, obvs. :rolleyes:

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210317/2a13ab71b9441774076e74f980b41669.jpg
The sensible thing would be for us to have a common travel area where people can move freely but there is a customs border for goods.


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[cabbageandribs1875]

Its more Lidl and Aldi we'll need in an independent Scotland.



:greengrin


well, at least they two stores aren't afraid to sell produce with a Saltire on the packaging, although i have noticed the butchers apron creeping up a tad in Aldi, pleasantly surprised whilst in one of my rare visits to Lidl yesterday to see just a bag of carrots with the Saltire...Tesco and Morrisons are getting like the last night of the proms, i'm in Tesco twice a week but i'l be starting to cut down on the amount i spend, more so now i've been informed Tesco are Donors to the nasty party


even morrisons now have "British fish" on it's fresh fish counter, ach probably British fish caught in Scottish waters going by the Haddock accents :)

[CloudSquall]

https://mobile.twitter.com/HumzaYousaf/status/1372282713101758467

Some civic nationalism from Galloway...

"You're not more Scottish than me. You're not a Celt like me".

Can you imagine the media reaction if an SNP candidate was directing this at Sarwar?

[CropleyWasGod]

https://mobile.twitter.com/HumzaYousaf/status/1372282713101758467

Some civic nationalism from Galloway...

"You're not more Scottish than me. You're not a Celt like me".

Can you imagine the media reaction if an SNP candidate was directing this at Sarwar?

Ronald Villiers 😂

[CropleyWasGod]

Depends what you mean by closed. The EFTA countries are all in Schengen so people can cross borders freely between them and the EU but they are not in the EU’s customs union so goods are stopped and checked.

Ok ta.

So would there need to be a closed border between IS and rUK? I'm guessing yes.

[JeMeSouviens]

Ok ta.

So would there need to be a closed border between IS and rUK? I'm guessing yes.

With us in EFTA? No, since EFTA countries aren’t bound into EU trade policy it’s theoretically possible for us to have a deal with rUK that allowed an open border. Probably vanishingly unlikely but theoretically possible.

[CropleyWasGod]

With us in EFTA? No, since EFTA countries aren’t bound into EU trade policy it’s theoretically possible for us to have a deal with rUK that allowed an open border. Probably vanishingly unlikely but theoretically possible.

An open border would be in both countries' interests though, wouldn't it?

[JeMeSouviens]

An open border would be in both countries' interests though, wouldn't it?

Yes. What’s that got to do with it? :greengrin

I’m not sure what happens if there’s an EFTA-UK agreement in the meantime. Would iScotland be obliged to participate if it joined EFTA? The Swiss are in EFTA but not the EEA, they have their own bilateral arrangement with the EU, so perhaps it’s optional?

[Ozyhibby]

An open border would be in both countries' interests though, wouldn't it?

Yes. Open borders are a good thing.


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[HibeeSince85]

Based on the 2016 vote, the results in Lothian were:-

Con 4 seats total
Lab 3 seats total
Lib Dem 1 seat total
Snp 6 seats total
Greens 2 seats total

So for indi 8 seats, remain 8 seats


If all snp voters gave their second vote to the greens the results would have been:-

Con 2 seats total
Lab 2 seats total
Lib Dem 1 seat total
Snp 6 seats total
Greens 5 seats total

So for indi 11 seats, remain 5 seats

Hope this helps.
If anyone from other areas want info let me know

Could you do that for Livingston, that is really interesting.

[JeMeSouviens]

Could you do that for Livingston, that is really interesting.

Last time I checked, Livingston was still in Lothian. :wink:

[HibeeSince85]

Last time I checked, Livingston was still in Lothian. :wink:

I'm blaming tiredness 😂

[JimBHibees]

They're absolutely terrified of losing the nation that they allegedly subsidise.

Yeah the biggest question of all if we are such subsidy junkies and are costing Westminster so much why the hell are they so desperate and willing to go to any lengths to keep us.

[Alex Trager]

:greengrin


well, at least they two stores aren't afraid to sell produce with a Saltire on the packaging, although i have noticed the butchers apron creeping up a tad in Aldi, pleasantly surprised whilst in one of my rare visits to Lidl yesterday to see just a bag of carrots with the Saltire...Tesco and Morrisons are getting like the last night of the proms, i'm in Tesco twice a week but i'l be starting to cut down on the amount i spend, more so now i've been informed Tesco are Donors to the nasty party


even morrisons now have "British fish" on it's fresh fish counter, ach probably British fish caught in Scottish waters going by the Haddock accents :)

Where did you read that re tesco?

[Ozyhibby]

Yeah the biggest question of all if we are such subsidy junkies and are costing Westminster so much why the hell are they so desperate and willing to go to any lengths to keep us.

And why are so many Scottish unionists happy with that situation? Who wants for Scotland to be among the poorest countries in Northern Europe? Why are they happy at the fact that Ireland, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland etc are all much richer than Scotland now and the situation is getting worse not better?


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[Moulin Yarns]

Could you do that for Livingston, that is really interesting.

I would be interested to see it for all regions, and the same done for tory votes as they claimed that they are the only party to stop the SNP.

[Keith_M]

More like answering carelessly. If you are used to identifying as Remain it is surprisingly easy to not realise you are actually Leave on this new question. If this question becomes the norm then people will eventually get used to it.


Thanks

I honestly wasn't sure of the logic behind it, but I suppose it's just people being asked to answer a survey questions, so they're maybe not taking much time to think through their answer.

[ACLeith]

Yeah the biggest question of all if we are such subsidy junkies and are costing Westminster so much why the hell are they so desperate and willing to go to any lengths to keep us.

100%. That’s been one of my main debating points for years. And if after 314 years we are the basket case of the western world then that’s an argument in favour of Indy, not against it

[Keith_M]

And why are so many Scottish unionists happy with that situation? Who wants for Scotland to be among the poorest countries in Northern Europe? Why are they happy at the fact that Ireland, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland etc are all much richer than Scotland now and the situation is getting worse not better?


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People suffering from Stockholm Syndrome don't always realise what they're going through.

[Smartie]

Yes. Open borders are a good thing.


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Are we not in this whole mess because a sizeable chunk of the 50m or so people who live on the other side of our border think somewhat differently?

(I agree wholeheartedly that open borders are a good thing btw).

[Smartie]

And why are so many Scottish unionists happy with that situation? Who wants for Scotland to be among the poorest countries in Northern Europe? Why are they happy at the fact that Ireland, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland etc are all much richer than Scotland now and the situation is getting worse not better?


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It’s important to remember that whilst as a nation we underachieve hopelessly, life is still really pretty good for a large number of people who live here, especially those who can afford to bypass using our state health and education services.

Those people, perhaps understandably, don’t want to rock the boat.

In my experience you’re not Scottish and a Tory if you give flying f*** about anyone else other than yourself and chat of other countries doing anything better than us is just alien to them.

[danhibees1875]

Yeah the biggest question of all if we are such subsidy junkies and are costing Westminster so much why the hell are they so desperate and willing to go to any lengths to keep us.

I think they just don't see it like that - they value the ideology of the Union before economic matters and while individual countries or counties/areas are broken down and discussed they're a lot more inclined to just see it as one UK.

If we broke down the economic success or failures of places within Scotland and it was shown that Fife (for instance) was running on deficits then I would be against a concept of Fife independence regardless (from the perspective of being in Edinburgh). Is that comparable. :dunno:

It could also be argued that economic success is a product of places and people around you too. I know many people born/educated/got into professions in Scotland and have subsequently moved to London for various reasons. The size of London pulls in economic success (that in itself is perhaps part of the problem but businesses just tend to congregate in areas), it's done so with the help of the people from surrounding areas. IMO that's where the idea of internal deficits/surplus starts to look a bit suspect for drawing conclusions, although I still find them interesting. I'd be surprised if it wasn't similar within Scotland too.

[Stick]

I would be interested to see it for all regions, and the same done for tory votes as they claimed that they are the only party to stop the SNP.

Based on 2016 elections:-

Central Scotland,
Con was 3 seats total,
Lab was 4
Lib Dem was 0
Snp was 9
Greens 0

If second snp vote to greens

Con 1
Lab 2
Lib Dem 0
Snp 9
Greens 4

So 13 for indi, and 3 against
———————————————-
Glasgow
Con was 2 seats total
Lab was 4 seats total
Lib Dem’s was 0 seats total
Snp was 9 seats total
Greens was 1 seat total

If second snp vote to greens

Con 1
Lab 2
Lib Dem 0
Snp 9
Greens 4

So 13 for indi and 3 against

—————————-

Sorry have to leave for the moment, will continue with the rest when I get back.

[Ozyhibby]

I think they just don't see it like that - they value the ideology of the Union before economic matters and while individual countries or counties/areas are broken down and discussed they're a lot more inclined to just see it as one UK.

If we broke down the economic success or failures of places within Scotland and it was shown that Fife (for instance) was running on deficits then I would be against a concept of Fife independence regardless (from the perspective of being in Edinburgh). Is that comparable. :dunno:

It could also be argued that economic success is a product of places and people around you too. I know many people born/educated/got into professions in Scotland and have subsequently moved to London for various reasons. The size of London pulls in economic success (that in itself is perhaps part of the problem but businesses just tend to congregate in areas), it's done so with the help of the people from surrounding areas. IMO that's where the idea of internal deficits/surplus starts to look a bit suspect for drawing conclusions, although I still find them interesting. I'd be surprised if it wasn't similar within Scotland too.

It’s time that we started to create the environment where the central belt of Scotland can start to have some economic pull of its own. Businesses don’t just start to congregate in areas by chance though, they are can be guided there. 24 of the top 25 pharmaceutical companies in the world not have facilities in Ireland. That didn’t just happen by chance. Ireland has a plan for attracting those companies and those high quality jobs. There is no similar plan for Scotland. About 25,000 people work in the sector in Ireland compared to 5000 in Scotland. Scotland is drifting economically. There is no plan to revive our economy.


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[Hibrandenburg]

Yeah the biggest question of all if we are such subsidy junkies and are costing Westminster so much why the hell are they so desperate and willing to go to any lengths to keep us.


Scotland has only 8.3% of the UK's population. But we do have approximately:

32% of the land area
61% of the sea area
90% of the fresh water
65% of the natural gas production
96.5% of the crude oil production
47% of the open cast coal production
81% of the untapped coal reserves
62% of the timber production
46% of the total forest area
92% of the hydro electric production
40% of the wind wave and solar energy production
60% of the fish landings
30% of the beef herd
20% of the sheep herd
9% of the dairy herd
10% of the pig herd
15% of the cereal holdings
20% of the potato holdings
100% of the Scottish Whisky industry
70% of Gin production

17 billion pound construction industry
13 billion food and drink industry
10 billion business services industry
9.3 billion chemical services industry
9.3 billion tourism industry
7 billion financial services industry
5 billion aeroservice industry
4.5 billion whisky export industry
3.1 billion life sciences industry

Scotland still has 350 million pounds worth of textile exports

25% of all Europes wave and wind energy potential with only 1% of Europe's population.

1.5 trillion pounds - £1,500,000,000,000 worth of oil and gas reserves.

All of this, yet only 8.3% of The UK's population and still Scotland is one of the poorest nations in Northern Europe that is subsidised by its generous neighbour. How? It's either massive mismanagement by Westminster or they're being economical with the truth.

[weecounty hibby]

Scotland has only 8.3% of the UK's population. But we do have approximately:

32% of the land area
61% of the sea area
90% of the fresh water
65% of the natural gas production
96.5% of the crude oil production
47% of the open cast coal production
81% of the untapped coal reserves
62% of the timber production
46% of the total forest area
92% of the hydro electric production
40% of the wind wave and solar energy production
60% of the fish landings
30% of the beef herd
20% of the sheep herd
9% of the dairy herd
10% of the pig herd
15% of the cereal holdings
20% of the potato holdings
100% of the Scottish Whisky industry
70% of Gin production

17 billion pound construction industry
13 billion food and drink industry
10 billion business services industry
9.3 billion chemical services industry
9.3 billion tourism industry
7 billion financial services industry
5 billion aeroservice industry
4.5 billion whisky export industry
3.1 billion life sciences industry

Scotland still has 350 million pounds worth of textile exports

25% of all Europes wave and wind energy potential with only 1% of Europe's population.

1.5 trillion pounds - £1,500,000,000,000 worth of oil and gas reserves.

All of this, yet only 8.3% of The UK's population and still Scotland is one of the poorest nations in Northern Europe that is subsidised by its generous neighbour. How? It's either massive mismanagement by Westminster or they're being economical with the truth.

And you have pretty well put up the case for independence there. Its not mismanagement on the part of Westminster, its a concerted planned strategy to take more out of Scotland than they reinvest.
For other examples see, India, Ireland, all the African colonies etc. Westminster will only grant permission when we truly do become a drain on England. So we need to go and take it

[danhibees1875]

It’s time that we started to create the environment where the central belt of Scotland can start to have some economic pull of its own. Businesses don’t just start to congregate in areas by chance though, they are can be guided there. 24 of the top 25 pharmaceutical companies in the world not have facilities in Ireland. That didn’t just happen by chance. Ireland has a plan for attracting those companies and those high quality jobs. There is no similar plan for Scotland. About 25,000 people work in the sector in Ireland compared to 5000 in Scotland. Scotland is drifting economically. There is no plan to revive our economy.


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The central belt does have its own economic pull though (it's why I'm here I guess). That was part of what I was trying to say. If London/SE is the economic magnet that makes rUK "subsidy junkies" then I think that comparable to what we'd see if we broke down Scottish economic stats, central belt making all the monies because of its pull. It's what makes fiscal transfers between regions make sense and not just an out and out subsidy in my eyes.

I wouldnt argue against further pull factors generally though, of course more business is good but what is the solution? If we (UK) want to lower corporation tax rates to attract businesses as Ireland has done I suspect we'll need to look to the right of the political spectrum for that (despite the recent reverse gear that's been applied).

What makes you think there's no economic plan for Scotland? I'm not saying I know there is or what it is, but I'd be surprised if there isn't at both holyrood and WM - whether they're any good or not is maybe the problem.

[Ozyhibby]

The central belt does have its own economic pull though (it's why I'm here I guess). That was part of what I was trying to say. If London/SE is the economic magnet that makes rUK "subsidy junkies" then I think that comparable to what we'd see if we broke down Scottish economic stats, central belt making all the monies because of its pull. It's what makes fiscal transfers between regions make sense and not just an out and out subsidy in my eyes.

I wouldnt argue against further pull factors generally though, of course more business is good but what is the solution? If we (UK) want to lower corporation tax rates to attract businesses as Ireland has done I suspect we'll need to look to the right of the political spectrum for that (despite the recent reverse gear that's been applied).

What makes you think there's no economic plan for Scotland? I'm not saying I know there is or what it is, but I'd be surprised if there isn't at both holyrood and WM - whether they're any good or not is maybe the problem.

If there is a plan for Scotland then it is a well kept secret.
Also, Ireland takes in more than double the amount of corporation tax we do. Doesn’t seem very right wing of them.


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[JeMeSouviens]

Yeah the biggest question of all if we are such subsidy junkies and are costing Westminster so much why the hell are they so desperate and willing to go to any lengths to keep us.

It's really not much to do with £££ and everything to do with willy waving.

Britain has already lost its empire. To lose 1/3 of its territory would be a huge psychological blow for British nationalism. Even worse, they have nowhere else like Faslane to park their nuclear subs and nowhere else convenient like Coulport to store large numbers of nuclear warheads. Their foreign/military policy is hugely predicated on being a nuclear power. Again, it would be an enormous loss of face for them to lose it.

One thing's for certain: it has absolutely **** all with the welfare of actual people on either side of the border.

[danhibees1875]

If there is a plan for Scotland then it is a well kept secret.
Also, Ireland takes in more than double the amount of corporation tax we do. Doesn’t seem very right wing of them.


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You're twisting my words there.

They have more tax takings because their lower tax rate encouraged businesses. I'd have thought lower tax rates were considered a bit right of thinking. It's what the Tories were implementing prior to Covid.

[JeMeSouviens]

The central belt does have its own economic pull though (it's why I'm here I guess). That was part of what I was trying to say. If London/SE is the economic magnet that makes rUK "subsidy junkies" then I think that comparable to what we'd see if we broke down Scottish economic stats, central belt making all the monies because of its pull. It's what makes fiscal transfers between regions make sense and not just an out and out subsidy in my eyes.

I wouldnt argue against further pull factors generally though, of course more business is good but what is the solution? If we (UK) want to lower corporation tax rates to attract businesses as Ireland has done I suspect we'll need to look to the right of the political spectrum for that (despite the recent reverse gear that's been applied).

What makes you think there's no economic plan for Scotland? I'm not saying I know there is or what it is, but I'd be surprised if there isn't at both holyrood and WM - whether they're any good or not is maybe the problem.

That "a £ spent in Croydon is worth 2 spent in Strathclyde"?

Edit - to clarify in case that's too obtuse. It's a quote from our beloved PM and what it means is that there's no point investing to improve the economy of Scotland because if you invest a similar amount in London/SE you will get a higher return. That's what we're up against staying in the Union. It's literally in the UK gov's interest for our economic performance to be as poor as possible, to scare people into staying put.

[JeMeSouviens]

Aw, naw, that Union needs saved ... again! :rolleyes:



Scottish independence voting intention:

Yes: 51%
No: 49%

via
@OpiniumResearch, 11 - 16 Mar

[StevieC]

Aw, naw, that Union needs saved ... again! :rolleyes:



Scottish independence voting intention:

Yes: 51%
No: 49%

via
@OpiniumResearch, 11 - 16 Mar

I look forward to seeing that result all over the media, in the same way the skewed result showing NO in front was last week.

[Ozyhibby]

I look forward to seeing that result all over the media, in the same way the skewed result showing NO in front was last week.

You will, just presented in a different way. [emoji23]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210318/352cb9ae239572d9f2cd68db3bd7f833.jpg


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[JeMeSouviens]

You will, just presented in a different way. [emoji23]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210318/352cb9ae239572d9f2cd68db3bd7f833.jpg


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They are all excited because the SNP doesn't (by a very slim margin) get a majority on their Holyrood numbers. However, they are showing 4% Green support on constituency numbers which is likely to be a big overestimate. They will have presented Greens as an option in loads of constituencies where they won't even be standing.

Having said that, it shouldn't really make any difference whether the SNP have a majority for Indy with or without the Greens if both parties have an unequivocal ref2 policy in their manifestos.

[SHODAN]

Only loosely on topic, but George Galloway appears to be on a one-man crusade to prove horseshoe theory right with the about of ***** he's come out with recently.

[Stick]

Would it be possible for an SNP outright majority if a significant number of people have the Greens there second vote? Or would it depend on which constituency you were in? Must admit to not being able to wrap my head around the list vote.

A pro-Indy majority would be great but as others have said; WM and MSM media would paint it as a failure for the SNP when really the Scottish parliament isn’t designed for outright majorities.

Based on the 2016 vote, the results in Lothian were:-

Con 4 seats total
Lab 3 seats total
Lib Dem 1 seat total
Snp 6 seats total
Greens 2 seats total

So for indi 8 seats, remain 8 seats


If all snp voters gave their second vote to the greens the results would have been:-

Con 2 seats total
Lab 2 seats total
Lib Dem 1 seat total
Snp 6 seats total
Greens 5 seats total

So for indi 11 seats, remain 5 seats

—————————


Based on the 2016 vote, the results in central Scotland were:-

Con 3 seats total
Lab 4 seats total
Lib Dem 0 seat total
Snp 9 seats total
Greens 0 seats total

So for indi 9 seats, remain 7 seats


If all snp voters gave their second vote to the greens the results would have been:-

Con 1 seat total
Lab 2 seats total
Lib Dem 0 seat total
Snp 9 seats total
Greens 4 seats total

So for indi 13 seats, remain 3 seats

—————————


Based on the 2016 vote, the results in Glasgow were:-

Con 2 seats total
Lab 4 seats total
Lib Dem 0 seat total
Snp 9 seats total
Greens 1 seats total

So for indi 10 seats, remain 6 seats


If all snp voters gave their second vote to the greens the results would have been:-

Con 1 seat total
Lab 2 seats total
Lib Dem 0 seat total
Snp 9 seats total
Greens 4 seats total

So for indi 13 seats, remain 3 seats

——————————

Based on the 2016 vote, the results in Highlands and Islands were:-

Con 3seats total
Lab 2seats total
Lib Dem 2seat total
Snp 7seats total
Greens 1 seats total

So for indi 8 seats, remain 7seats


If all snp voters gave their second vote to the greens the results would have been:-

Con 2. seat total
Lab 1seats total
Lib Dem 2 seat total
Snp 6 seats total
Greens 4 seats total

So for indi 10 seats, remain 5 seats

——————————

Based on the 2016 vote, the results in Mid Scotland and Fife were:-

Con 4seats total
Lab 2 seats total
Lib Dem 1 seat total
Snp 8 seats total
Greens 1 seats total

So for indi 9 seats, remain 7 seats


If all snp voters gave their second vote to the greens the results would have been:-

Con 2 seat total
Lab 1 seats total
Lib Dem 1 seat total
Snp 8 seats total
Greens 4 seats total

So for indi 12 seats, remain 4 seats

———————

Based on the 2016 vote, the results in North East Scotland were:-

Con 5 seats total
Lab 2 seats total
Lib Dem 1 seat total
Snp 9 seats total
Greens 0 seats total

So for indi 9 seats, remain 8 seats



If all snp voters gave their second vote to the greens the results would have been:-

Con 2 seat total
Lab 1 seats total
Lib Dem 0 seat total
Snp 9 seats total
Greens 5 seats total

So for indi 14 seats, remain 3 seats

——————————


Based on the 2016 vote, the results in South Scotland were:-

Con 6 seats total
Lab 3 seats total
Lib Dem 0 seat total
Snp 7 seats total
Greens 0 seats total

So for indi 7 seats, remain 9 seats


If all snp voters gave their second vote to the greens the results would have been:-

Con 4 seats total
Lab 2 seats total
Lib Dem 0 seat total
Snp 4 seats total
Greens 6 seats total

So for indi 10 seats, remain 6 seats

—————-


Based on the 2016 vote, the results in West Scotland were:-

Con 4 seats total
Lab 4 seats total
Lib Dem 0 seat total
Snp 8 seats total
Greens 1 seats total

So for indi 9 seats, remain 8 seats


If all snp voters gave their second vote to the greens the results would have been:-

Con 2 seat total
Lab 2 seats total
Lib Dem 0 seat total
Snp 8 seats total
Greens 5 seats total

So for indi 13 seats, remain 4 seats

——————————————————————-

Scotland totals

At 2016
Con 31
Lab 24
Lib Dem 5
SNP 63
Greens 6

If second snp vote to Greens the totals would have been
Con 16
Lab 13
Lib Dem’s 4
SNP 59
Greens 37

—————————————
If you substitute the newly formed indie party instead of to the greens, then the results would be similar although the greens lose out badly.
Con 18
Lab 13
Lib Dem’s 4
SNP 59
New indie party 34
Greens 1
The problem is that there is now 4 new indie parties so if the second votes are split then probably would gain few seats, I haven’t worked out any permutations yet, I don’t think it’s really worth it.

I will work on the scenario if labour and Lib Dem’s give their second vote to conservatives and post results when done.
A bit cross eyed with all the figures, if you spot any errors please let me know.

My very clever Mrs stick has published these figures on a web site with link to source figures.
Scotlandwhatif.weebly.com

[weecounty hibby]

The new indy parties are a total sideshow and mostly led by thos e who have annego bigger than Scotland. See Craig Murray as the best example. No sane person can expect to form a party weeks from an election and expect to gain seats. Interesting stuff that you have posted there. SNP 1 Green 2 looks like the sensible option for the indy minded. Om still torn about it to be honest. Gut instinct is SNP 1 and 2 but thosebstatsblook compelling. Just need everyone to do it though and that will be the trick

[Ozyhibby]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w3csz6ml

Interesting listen.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[JeMeSouviens]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w3csz6ml

Interesting listen.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

This is quite interesting on English v British identity and the overlaps therein. Also touches a bit on the lack of appetite for federalism in England.

https://whatscotlandthinks.org/2021/03/podcast-englishness/

[degenerated]

Thanks

I honestly wasn't sure of the logic behind it, but I suppose it's just people being asked to answer a survey questions, so they're maybe not taking much time to think through their answer.It will also have been the last question in a suite of leading questions framed around reversed terminology.

[Alex Trager]

This is quite interesting on English v British identity and the overlaps therein. Also touches a bit on the lack of appetite for federalism in England.

https://whatscotlandthinks.org/2021/03/podcast-englishness/

I’ll put it on my list to listen to it, but regards the English/British thing I pick up on it all the time.

People refer to the UK as England so frequently it does my tits in.

You’ll notice it in senior politicians as well.

If you listen out for it, you’ll hear it quite regularly. Not sure why it winds me up as much as it does haha!

[cabbageandribs1875]

from an England for Independence twitter site, apparently :greengrin



https://scontent.fman1-2.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/162051058_1815282021954968_3712966887414325321_o.j pg?_nc_cat=106&ccb=1-3&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_ohc=vdsAkzX1IB0AX_ATXpJ&_nc_ht=scontent.fman1-2.fna&oh=7c2fdcfa2434d7375c2c64e1de08d25c&oe=60785AB4



how on earth will we survive, surely it's not true 60+ countries have achieved independence from engla, i mean Britain, and not one has begged to get back

[JeMeSouviens]

from an England for Independence twitter site, apparently :greengrin



https://scontent.fman1-2.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/162051058_1815282021954968_3712966887414325321_o.j pg?_nc_cat=106&ccb=1-3&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_ohc=vdsAkzX1IB0AX_ATXpJ&_nc_ht=scontent.fman1-2.fna&oh=7c2fdcfa2434d7375c2c64e1de08d25c&oe=60785AB4



how on earth will we survive, surely it's not true 60+ countries have achieved independence from engla, i mean Britain, and not one has begged to get back

These guys are to be greatly encouraged. 👍

[weecounty hibby]

from an England for Independence twitter site, apparently :greengrin



https://scontent.fman1-2.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/162051058_1815282021954968_3712966887414325321_o.j pg?_nc_cat=106&ccb=1-3&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_ohc=vdsAkzX1IB0AX_ATXpJ&_nc_ht=scontent.fman1-2.fna&oh=7c2fdcfa2434d7375c2c64e1de08d25c&oe=60785AB4



how on earth will we survive, surely it's not true 60+ countries have achieved independence from engla, i mean Britain, and not one has begged to get back

I'm on their side. England needs to be an independant country. Where do I sign up for this?

[Moulin Yarns]

Partick East/Kelvindale (Glasgow) By-Election, 1st Preferences:

SNP ~ 2084 (32.1%, -2.2)
Labour ~ 1836 (28.3%, +10.7)
Green ~ 1200 (18.5%, +2.1)
Conservative ~ 1084 (16.7%, -5.5)
Lib Dem ~ 259 (4%, -4.5)
UKIP ~ 33 (0.5%, 0.5)

Labour elected stage 6. https://t.co/ZG3TV5QZP7

Green ahead of the tories in a Glasgow council bi-election 👍💚

[DaveF]

Partick East/Kelvindale (Glasgow) By-Election, 1st Preferences:

SNP ~ 2084 (32.1%, -2.2)
Labour ~ 1836 (28.3%, +10.7)
Green ~ 1200 (18.5%, +2.1)
Conservative ~ 1084 (16.7%, -5.5)
Lib Dem ~ 259 (4%, -4.5)
UKIP ~ 33 (0.5%, 0.5)

Labour elected stage 6. https://t.co/ZG3TV5QZP7

Green ahead of the tories in a Glasgow council bi-election 👍💚

Dunno if I'm getting this but with a lower vote than SNP?

I'm sure there is an easy answer 🙂

[danhibees1875]

Dunno if I'm getting this but with a lower vote than SNP?

I'm sure there is an easy answer 🙂

STV (the system, not the TV channel).

[DaveF]

STV (the system, not the TV channel).

Right, so way more 2nd pred for Labour than SNP got them the win.

[JeMeSouviens]

Right, so way more 2nd pred for Labour than SNP got them the win.

Not even just 2nd prefs, you can rank as many or as few of the candidates as you like with STV.

So an extra pro-Union candidate could vote 1. UKIP 2. Tory, 3. Lib, 4. Lab and stop there and if UKIP, Tory and Lib get eliminated in early rounds, they would count for Lab.

Interesting that SNP+Green is over 50%, so if all the Greens had transferred, SNP would have won.

[danhibees1875]

Not even just 2nd prefs, you can rank as many or as few of the candidates as you like with STV.

So an extra pro-Union candidate could vote 1. UKIP 2. Tory, 3. Lib, 4. Lab and stop there and if UKIP, Tory and Lib get eliminated in early rounds, they would count for Lab.

Interesting that SNP+Green is over 50%, so if all the Greens had transferred, SNP would have won.

STV is quite an interesting concept.

It looks like green vote went - 670 SNP, 429 labour, 280 no-one.

5 people went for 1.ukip 2.greens.

[DaveF]

STV is quite an interesting concept.

It looks like green vote went - 670 SNP, 429 labour, 280 no-one.

5 people went for 1.ukip 2.greens.

429 people went from and Indy party to a unionist one. I appreciate that Indy is not 'everything' but does it not say that people either don't understand STV or quite simply don't care.

[JeMeSouviens]

STV is quite an interesting concept.

It looks like green vote went - 670 SNP, 429 labour, 280 no-one.

5 people went for 1.ukip 2.greens.

I quite like it because it's proportional, retains a representative-constituency link and isn't open to "gaming" like the AMS list.

It totally sucks for by-elections though.

[danhibees1875]

429 people went from and Indy party to a unionist one. I appreciate that Indy is not 'everything' but does it not say that people either don't understand STV or quite simply don't care.

I'd guess they just haven't placed independence at the fore of their decision making for it.

[JeMeSouviens]

429 people went from and Indy party to a unionist one. I appreciate that Indy is not 'everything' but does it not say that people either don't understand STV or quite simply don't care.

Pretty much all poling shows around 30-40% of what's left of Labour's voters support Indy but keep voting for a Unionist party.

[danhibees1875]

I quite like it because it's proportional, retains a representative-constituency link and isn't open to "gaming" like the AMS list.

It totally sucks for by-elections though.

What makes it worse for by-elections?

I've never thought too much about the different systems and their pros and cons beyond generally thinking that AMS is better than FPTP.

I think there was a referendum on it at one point. I didn't vote either way on it despite being of voting age and only found out it had happened years later.

[Moulin Yarns]

429 people went from and Indy party to a unionist one. I appreciate that Indy is not 'everything' but does it not say that people either don't understand STV or quite simply don't care.

The Greens are considered to be left of labour, so some policy will be similar.

[DaveF]

Pretty much all poling shows around 30-40% of what's left of Labour's voters support Indy but keep voting for a Unionist party.

Ummm... Not sure what to say to that.

[JeMeSouviens]

What makes it worse for by-elections?

I've never thought too much about the different systems and their pros and cons beyond generally thinking that AMS is better than FPTP.

I think there was a referendum on it at one point. I didn't vote either way on it despite being of voting age and only found out it had happened years later.

The referendum was on AV (alternative vote), which is barely different from FPTP and not actually PR at all. I voted for it because I knew the narrative was going to be "the people have rejected PR" if it failed, even though they weren't really voting on PR at all. Ho hum.

STV is worse for by-elections because eg. in the original vote, the constituency elected 5 MPs, 3 from party A, 1 from B and 1 from C. Now C's MP resigns and a by-election is called. The by-election is for the whole constituency but only elects one MP, overwhelmingly likely to be another from party A.

[danhibees1875]

The referendum was on AV (alternative vote), which is barely different from FPTP and not actually PR at all. I voted for it because I knew the narrative was going to be "the people have rejected PR" if it failed, even though they weren't really voting on PR at all. Ho hum.

STV is worse for by-elections because eg. in the original vote, the constituency elected 5 MPs, 3 from party A, 1 from B and 1 from C. Now C's MP resigns and a by-election is called. The by-election is for the whole constituency but only elects one MP, overwhelmingly likely to be another from party A.

I'd be inclined to agree then. :agree:

Didn't realise that was what this was for but that does seem fundamentally flawed.

[Glory Lurker]

See what does my nut?

To get an absolute majority at Westminster you only need a vote above 40%. You can do what you want on that for years.

But of course there are the checks and balances that are guaranteed by the upper chamber. Of politically appointed people. And some bishops who get to have a say in our laws because, well, that god guy. The second largest unelected political chamber in the world after China?

And then, at the top of the tree (albeit in a supposedly neutral role), someone who happens to be part of the right family.

That's not democracy. Putting to one side the usual pro/anti indy arguments, what is good about us putting up with this 19th century constitution?

[Stick]

I would be interested to see it for all regions, and the same done for tory votes as they claimed that they are the only party to stop the SNP.

I have Previously posted trans of SNP list votes to Greens for all regions based on 2016 results.

—————————

Here are the possible results for the Tories.

Based on the 2016 results, if Labour, Libdems, and Tories, had all given their list votes to the Tories then the results for all Scotland would be:-

Actual results first

Con 31 total seats
Lab 24 total seats
Lib democrats 5 total seats
SNP 63 total seats
Greens 6 total seats

If lab, libdems, Tories gave their list votes to the Tories

Con 58 total seats
Lab 4 total seats
Libdems 4 total seats
SNP 61 total seats
Greens 3


If as above the unionists trans their list votes to the Tories +AND+ the SNP trans their list votes to the Greens

Then the results would have been

Con 32 total seats
Lab 3 total seats
Libdems 4 total seats
SNP 59 total seats
Greens 31 total seats


Anyone wants any more figure breakdowns then let me know.

[Moulin Yarns]

I have Previously posted trans of SNP list votes to Greens for all regions based on 2016 results.

—————————

Here are the possible results for the Tories.

Based on the 2016 results, if Labour, Libdems, and Tories, had all given their list votes to the Tories then the results for all Scotland would be:-

Actual results first

Con 31 total seats
Lab 24 total seats
Lib democrats 5 total seats
SNP 63 total seats
Greens 6 total seats

If lab, libdems, Tories gave their list votes to the Tories

Con 58 total seats
Lab 4 total seats
Libdems 4 total seats
SNP 61 total seats
Greens 3


If as above the unionists trans their list votes to the Tories +AND+ the SNP trans their list votes to the Greens

Then the results would have been

Con 32 total seats
Lab 3 total seats
Libdems 4 total seats
SNP 59 total seats
Greens 31 total seats


Anyone wants any more figure breakdowns then let me know.

You're a hero. 👍

[Keith_M]

If there is another Indyref, I can't see any other result than a 'No' to independence.


I genuinely thought for a while that it would go the other way but when you see the Media and Political ramp up that's happened around the Salmond stuff, it reminds you just how much influence the Unionists* have and how the Media onslaught can seriously erode many people's confidence.






* Before anyone gets too offended, I'm not using the word 'Unionists' to refer to the average man or woman in the street that would prefer to remain part of the UK.

[lapsedhibee]

If there is another Indyref, I can't see any other result than a 'No' to independence.

I genuinely thought for a while that it would go the other way but when you see the Media and Political ramp up that's happened around the Salmond stuff, it reminds you just how much influence the Unionists* have and how the Media onslaught can seriously erode many people's confidence.

* Before anyone gets too offended, I'm not using the word 'Unionists' to refer to the average man or woman in the street that would prefer to remain part of the UK.

On the other hand, if the MSM keep up this sole strategy of shouting about Sturgeon's resignation every few days for another 6 months, more and more people are going to see it for what it is.

Much too early to be writing off the chances of Indy. :tsk tsk:

[Ozyhibby]

On the other hand, if the MSM keep up this sole strategy of shouting about Sturgeon's resignation every few days for another 6 months, more and more people are going to see it for what it is.

Much too early to be writing off the chances of Indy. :tsk tsk:

They are throwing everything at this because it’s all they have. There is no case for the union anymore.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Stick]

[QUOTE=Keith_M;6501334]If there is another Indyref, I can't see any other result than a 'No' to independence.


I genuinely thought for a while that it would go the other way but when you see the Media and Political ramp up that's happened around the Salmond stuff, it reminds you just how much influence the Unionists* have and how the Media onslaught can seriously erode many people's confidence.



Much to early to write of a yes result. Let’s take one step at a time.

The yes support must firstly concentrate on achieving a majority at the Scottish election, by in my opinion voting SNP in the constituency and then giving the list vote to the greens, ( apart from the Highland and Islands and South Scotland regions, where both votes to the SNP). The 4 new list only parties will only split the vote and have a negative affect, so should be ignored.

By the time the referendum comes along the public will be fed up with the Tories still moaning about what Nicola did or didn’t say, and will have largely stopped listening.
In the mean time it will be more obvious that brexit isn’t living up to the Tories promises, and the power grab will be more and more obvious and annoying.
Thankfully the younger voters are less interested in the msm spin and pay more attention to the facts on social media. So we should all be getting the message out and tell the truth with provable facts.
There’s a lot still to fight for.

[cabbageandribs1875]

https://scontent.fman1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/162831752_1127955980951127_7814635676290873042_o.j pg?_nc_cat=104&ccb=1-3&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_ohc=vJZ75TGwVY4AX9iVEXH&_nc_ht=scontent.fman1-1.fna&oh=c73c9ff64a6b7316c786084516057cfc&oe=607AF2CA

[Keith_M]

So, what exactly is the point of Starmer and his Labour Party?

For somebody looking in from the outside, they want to preserve the Union and.... that seems to be about it.


They should change their name to 'The Labour and Unionist Party', in honour of their heroes in blue.

[Bristolhibby]

See what does my nut?

To get an absolute majority at Westminster you only need a vote above 40%. You can do what you want on that for years.

But of course there are the checks and balances that are guaranteed by the upper chamber. Of politically appointed people. And some bishops who get to have a say in our laws because, well, that god guy. The second largest unelected political chamber in the world after China?

And then, at the top of the tree (albeit in a supposedly neutral role), someone who happens to be part of the right family.

That's not democracy. Putting to one side the usual pro/anti indy arguments, what is good about us putting up with this 19th century constitution?

I know, it’s madness.

If you were designing governance for a country from scratch you’d never in a million years come up with the U.Ks system.

A farce. But it’s never going to change.

Personally Independence for Scotland will have a knock on effect in rUK. It will bring change. Another reason I’m pro Indy.

J

[Ozyhibby]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210322/167b0fd302dd89245d4fe091f0f8c943.jpg

Support for Independence rising.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[wookie70]

I have Previously posted trans of SNP list votes to Greens for all regions based on 2016 results.

—————————

Here are the possible results for the Tories.

Based on the 2016 results, if Labour, Libdems, and Tories, had all given their list votes to the Tories then the results for all Scotland would be:-

Actual results first

Con 31 total seats
Lab 24 total seats
Lib democrats 5 total seats
SNP 63 total seats
Greens 6 total seats

If lab, libdems, Tories gave their list votes to the Tories

Con 58 total seats
Lab 4 total seats
Libdems 4 total seats
SNP 61 total seats
Greens 3


If as above the unionists trans their list votes to the Tories +AND+ the SNP trans their list votes to the Greens

Then the results would have been

Con 32 total seats
Lab 3 total seats
Libdems 4 total seats
SNP 59 total seats
Greens 31 total seats


Anyone wants any more figure breakdowns then let me know.

Thanks for all your work on this. It is fascinating and to me shows what a terrible decision for Indi the SNP campaign for SNP 1 and 2 is. Indo is what most voters are interested in when voting in a Scottish parliament Election. The Greens and SNP should have worked out a voting strategy that would almost guarantee a huge Indi majority but instead Party First is the order of the day and at best I suspect a majority Indi government as we have now. The last year or so makes it look like the SNP want to do everything but become Independent. They have my first vote but really don't deserve it. As a Public Servant the Greens have been fantastic getting me a pay rise. The SNP less so.

[Ozyhibby]

Thanks for all your work on this. It is fascinating and to me shows what a terrible decision for Indi the SNP campaign for SNP 1 and 2 is. Indo is what most voters are interested in when voting in a Scottish parliament Election. The Greens and SNP should have worked out a voting strategy that would almost guarantee a huge Indi majority but instead Party First is the order of the day and at best I suspect a majority Indi government as we have now. The last year or so makes it look like the SNP want to do everything but become Independent. They have my first vote but really don't deserve it. As a Public Servant the Greens have been fantastic getting me a pay rise. The SNP less so.

If they enter a formal agreement don’t they just become one party and therefore it doesn’t work? Otherwise the SNP could just say all or list candidates are a separate party called SNP+ or something and the benefit from extra seats.
Most people can work out if they want to how best to vote.
I think the real problem is that the Green Party should be campaigning harder for those list votes by educating Yes voters on the benefits of giving them their 2nd vote.


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[Ozyhibby]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210322/0531ce1f978d12d2c94191e1f3dd3ccd.jpg


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Jones28]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210322/0531ce1f978d12d2c94191e1f3dd3ccd.jpg


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

All things considered not a bad scenario.

Tomorrow is a big big day now.

[JeMeSouviens]

Thanks for all your work on this. It is fascinating and to me shows what a terrible decision for Indi the SNP campaign for SNP 1 and 2 is. Indo is what most voters are interested in when voting in a Scottish parliament Election. The Greens and SNP should have worked out a voting strategy that would almost guarantee a huge Indi majority but instead Party First is the order of the day and at best I suspect a majority Indi government as we have now. The last year or so makes it look like the SNP want to do everything but become Independent. They have my first vote but really don't deserve it. As a Public Servant the Greens have been fantastic getting me a pay rise. The SNP less so.

I don't really see how you expected a major indy push in the middle of a pandemic? :confused:

Meanwhile, by actually being seen to be knocking her pan in to deal with the pandemic and also dealing with it considerably more effectively than the UK Tories, indy has been pushed on more than at any time since 2014.

On the current polling the difference between both votes SNP and SNP-Cons, Green-List may be a majority vs minority government. Of course the SNP are going to prefer the latter. And it may also strengthen the pressure for an agreed indyref.

Lastly, the Holyrood parliament is meant to be proportional, not give ridiculous lopsided results like Westminster elections. If Unionism gets about half the votes, then they should get about half the seats.

[JeMeSouviens]

All things considered not a bad scenario.

Tomorrow is a big big day now.

I think Hamilton reports today. It's the biggie, I think, as it can't be written off as a Unionist hatchet job.

[Paul1642]

If there is another Indyref, I can't see any other result than a 'No' to independence.


I genuinely thought for a while that it would go the other way but when you see the Media and Political ramp up that's happened around the Salmond stuff, it reminds you just how much influence the Unionists* have and how the Media onslaught can seriously erode many people's confidence.






* Before anyone gets too offended, I'm not using the word 'Unionists' to refer to the average man or woman in the street that would prefer to remain part of the UK.

Meanwhile Sturgeon turned a global pandemic into the daily Nicola show in order to get maximise her self publicity, when other than the large rule change announcements a medical chief or a minister would have sufficed just fine.

[weecounty hibby]

Meanwhile Sturgeon turned a global pandemic into the daily Nicola show in order to get maximise her self publicity, when other than the large rule change announcements a medical chief or a minister would have sufficed just fine.

Alternatively the leader of the country fronted up and delivered difficult messages carefully and concisely every day. Unlike our chum that sadly leads the Westminster government. He couldn't even be bothered to attend COBRA meetings!

[Peevemor]

Meanwhile Sturgeon turned a global pandemic into the daily Nicola show in order to get maximise her self publicity, when other than the large rule change announcements a medical chief or a minister would have sufficed just fine.

Why not, seeing as she's held responsable for absolutely everything? You can't have it all ways.

[lord bunberry]

Meanwhile Sturgeon turned a global pandemic into the daily Nicola show in order to get maximise her self publicity, when other than the large rule change announcements a medical chief or a minister would have sufficed just fine.
I’ve found the briefings really helpful and I’m glad the first minister has been fronting them every day.

[Ozyhibby]

Meanwhile Sturgeon turned a global pandemic into the daily Nicola show in order to get maximise her self publicity, when other than the large rule change announcements a medical chief or a minister would have sufficed just fine.

She led and deep down you know it and it hurts. [emoji23]


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[Santa Cruz]

I’ve found the briefings really helpful and I’m glad the first minister has been fronting them every day.

I defo found them helpful at the start, and there's no denying she is very effective at communicating. For me, it became a bit telling when very seldom any other Cabinet Minister's made an appearance, then on the occasion they did, if asked a specific question, the FM would nearly always answer first before letting them speak. She takes a long time to get round to answering the questions and quite often has to get back to the Reporter with answers the public wouldn't mind hearing. Tbh after watching Freeman last week, I came to the conclusion she was better, didnae always know the answers and quickly handed over to advisers. Nae word of a lie, I have fell asleep through every Swinney led briefing, he's not a good public speaker imo.

[lapsedhibee]

I defo found them helpful at the start, and there's no denying she is very effective at communicating. For me, it became a bit telling when very seldom any other Cabinet Minister's made an appearance, then on the occasion they did, if asked a specific question, the FM would nearly always answer first before letting them speak.

I always took that as the FM doing the others a favour, giving them time to compose their answers - team playing. Agree about Swinney.

[Santa Cruz]

I always took that as the FM doing the others a favour, giving them time to compose their answers - team playing. Agree about Swinney.

No, they are in Cabinet positions and should be well capable enough to answer for the Depts they hold responsibility for. She is guiding them as a reminder with the line to take. It's one of two reasons, she either doesn't have huge faith in their ability or she wants complete control, knowing how much better her communication skills are and how that will project to the public.

[Mon Dieu4]

No, they are in Cabinet positions and should be well capable enough to answer for the Depts they hold responsibility for. She is guiding them as a reminder with the line to take. It's one of two reasons, she either doesn't have huge faith in their ability or she wants complete control, knowing how much better her communication skills are and how that will project to the public.

If you want to portray a clear and concise message to the general public then get your best communicator to do it, hardly rocket science or some kind of conspiracy

[Santa Cruz]

If you want to portray a clear and concise message to the general public then get your best communicator to do it, hardly rocket science or some kind of conspiracy

I don't believe I said it was a conspiracy or rocket science. If you want to have an effective Government imo it helps if you have a strong Cabinet you have full faith in, all with equally good communication skills.

[Hiber-nation]

If you want to portray a clear and concise message to the general public then get your best communicator to do it, hardly rocket science or some kind of conspiracy

Exactly. Why wouldn't you want to use that to your advantage?

[Mon Dieu4]

I don't believe I said it was a conspiracy or rocket science. If you want to have an effective Government imo it helps if you have a strong Cabinet you have full faith in, all with equally good communication skills.

Different people want different things, I'm quite comfortable that the info comes from the head honcho as I think I shows leadership and responsibility

[Santa Cruz]

Different people want different things, I'm quite comfortable that the info comes from the head honcho as I think I shows leadership and responsibility

Cool. Each to their own. I could only have named maybe 3 or 4 members of the Cabinet pre-pandemic. I think because I've watched FMQ's more than I ever would in normal times, I could now maybe name 9 or 10 out of quite a sizeable Cabinet. I won't be alone in that, jeez I didn't even know who my SNP MSP was until a leaflet came through my door the other day. Point I'm making is, is it really good for any Party to rely so heavily on one person, even if that happens to be the Leader. There doesn't seem to be an obvious replacement for her with the same levels of popularity. I've never understood why anyone votes for a person as opposed to a Party and their policies/record in Government, but heyho tons do by all accounts.

[JeMeSouviens]

Cool. Each to their own. I could only have named maybe 3 or 4 members of the Cabinet pre-pandemic. I think because I've watched FMQ's more than I ever would in normal times, I could now maybe name 9 or 10 out of quite a sizeable Cabinet. I won't be alone in that, jeez I didn't even know who my SNP MSP was until a leaflet came through my door the other day. Point I'm making is, is it really good for any Party to rely so heavily on one person, even if that happens to be the Leader. There doesn't seem to be an obvious replacement for her with the same levels of popularity. I've never understood why anyone votes for a person as opposed to a Party and their policies/record in Government, but heyho tons do by all accounts.

Precisely because of situations like this. If you're going to lead a government, leadership skills are important, not just policies.

[Santa Cruz]

Precisely because of situations like this. If you're going to lead a government, leadership skills are important, not just policies.

What do you do if she goes, or decides one day she's had enough? Who steps in for her with that level of leadership skills? I've yet to see anyone come remotely close in her Cabinet.

[JeMeSouviens]

What do you do if she goes, or decides one day she's had enough? Who steps in for her with that level of leadership skills? I've yet to see anyone come remotely close in her Cabinet.

So that might be part of your decision when voting: I like leader X but they're a one woman band so I'll vote for party Y.

[wookie70]

I don't really see how you expected a major indy push in the middle of a pandemic? :confused:

Meanwhile, by actually being seen to be knocking her pan in to deal with the pandemic and also dealing with it considerably more effectively than the UK Tories, indy has been pushed on more than at any time since 2014.

On the current polling the difference between both votes SNP and SNP-Cons, Green-List may be a majority vs minority government. Of course the SNP are going to prefer the latter. And it may also strengthen the pressure for an agreed indyref.

Lastly, the Holyrood parliament is meant to be proportional, not give ridiculous lopsided results like Westminster elections. If Unionism gets about half the votes, then they should get about half the seats.

There is a system and I say use that system for the benefit of Independence not just for one Party. There is a very good chance the SNP end up needing the Greens to get things through Parliament as they do now. That actually works well as the Greens are far more progressive. I'd just like to see as many Pro Indy Parties in Parliament and that is very easily achievable if Parties thought Indy First.

When I speak to my pals nearly all the chat is about Independence and we are a pretty mixed bunch split between Labour, SNP and Green. We are all Yes voters and I think the Labour ones may well vote SNP as Independence is now far, far more important than anything else. I think the latest chat is most of us are likely to give the Greens second votes, even the SNP member, as it is a vote for Unionism otherwise.

On the issue of whether Sturgeon should have been doing more with Independence while a pandemic is ongoing then I think she should. It has been clearly demonstrated that the UK has performed disastrously and we have as a result also did terribly. The PPE and Test and Trace disasters will cost Scotland a small fortune yet we had little or no say over these disasters and in the case of Test and Trace no benefit. I bet we pay our share though. The Pandemic has demonstrated more than any other event how Scotland needs to control our own borders and responses. I would have expected more to be made of the issues we face as a country unable to make our own decisions

[ronaldo7]

Independence bill has just been published.

Timing to be decided by the SP.

Question to be Yes/no

Franchise to be extended to include Foreign nationals.

[Ozyhibby]

https://news.stv.tv/politics/second-indyref-would-have-same-question-as-2014?top&amp&__twitter_impression=true


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Moulin Yarns]

Independence bill has just been published.

Timing to be decided by the SP.

Question to be Yes/no

Franchise to be extended to include Foreign nationals.

The Scottish goverment has published its draft indyref2 legislation. Proposes a Yes/No question as in 2014 and says timing would be for MSPs to decide - but govt would like it in the first half of the five-year term https://t.co/lGdjBJihGX


https://www.gov.scot/publications/draft-independence-referendum-bill/

[cabbageandribs1875]

SNP considering coalition with Greens even if party wins majority at Holyrood | The National (https://www.thenational.scot/news/19176983.snp-considering-coalition-greens-even-party-wins-majority-holyrood/?fbclid=IwAR39H2LNL9UlPnyq9qtXB0SaaIY0aQM2I6_YNMBc 4pMimawN414FnKhxTkA)



SENIOR SNP (https://www.thenational.scot/politics/snp/) figures have reportedly opened the door to a coalition government with the Scottish Greens (https://www.thenational.scot/politics/scottish-greens/) even if Nicola Sturgeon (https://www.thenational.scot/politics/nicola-sturgeon/)’s party does win a majority in the spring elections in a move to form a “super majority” for a second independence (https://www.thenational.scot/news/scottish-independence/) referendum, it has emerged.
The development comes after Patrick Harvie (https://www.thenational.scot/politics/patrick-harvie) revealed to The National he was open to such an arrangement and wanted to be in government following the Holyrood (https://www.thenational.scot/politics/holyrood/) election on May 6.


about time, could only be a good thing with the Greens getting some recognised power in Holyrood, Dross will probably be bashing away on his keyboard about this, of course forgetting he's been begging the northern branch office of British labour to share with his nasty party, which of course they will gladly do so, doris johnson's not-so-secret admirer Sir Keir Starmer will make sure of it :agree:

[Moulin Yarns]

Meanwhile Sturgeon turned a global pandemic into the daily Nicola show in order to get maximise her self publicity, when other than the large rule change announcements a medical chief or a minister would have sufficed just fine.

Are you happy now? 😉

No daily briefings

[cabbageandribs1875]

diddums kelly..

https://scontent.fman1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/163501760_10225283212608078_8203065978971960682_o. jpg?_nc_cat=111&ccb=1-3&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_ohc=mah33KMropwAX9iBOtw&_nc_ht=scontent.fman1-1.fna&oh=bd580a2030fc12319d327efcd9b44222&oe=607F4C08

[SHODAN]

diddums kelly..

https://scontent.fman1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/163501760_10225283212608078_8203065978971960682_o. jpg?_nc_cat=111&ccb=1-3&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_ohc=mah33KMropwAX9iBOtw&_nc_ht=scontent.fman1-1.fna&oh=bd580a2030fc12319d327efcd9b44222&oe=607F4C08

He can even things out by standing Labour candidates down from Tory-SNP marginals.

[Betty Boop]

Vote for Bonny Prince Bob

Vote Bonnie Prince Bob - YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JmAMO6qYFdQ)

[cabbageandribs1875]

He can even things out by standing Labour candidates down from Tory-SNP marginals.


oh i'm sure the two london based northern Branch parties will be working together

[Keith_M]

Vote for Bonny Prince Bob

Vote Bonnie Prince Bob - YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JmAMO6qYFdQ)


"I'm not here to discuss (but I just did it anyway)"

[Ozyhibby]

Vote for Bonny Prince Bob

Vote Bonnie Prince Bob - YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JmAMO6qYFdQ)

Monster raving loony party?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Moulin Yarns]

diddums kelly..

https://scontent.fman1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/163501760_10225283212608078_8203065978971960682_o. jpg?_nc_cat=111&ccb=1-3&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_ohc=mah33KMropwAX9iBOtw&_nc_ht=scontent.fman1-1.fna&oh=bd580a2030fc12319d327efcd9b44222&oe=607F4C08

Today @lornagreens and I replied to a constituent of mine called James, who is really keen to have a local Green candidate in May. Thanks for your enthusiasm James, don't forget to Vote Like Your Future Depends On It!! https://t.co/iipbg5QbgD



🤣🤣🤣🤣

[Santa Cruz]

"I'm not here to discuss (but I just did it anyway)"

Lost me at the middle class rant, given he cannae pronounce Dalry like most non-middle class edinburgh people, I'm guessing that's what he is. What's Disneyfication when it's at home?? lol. Seems to have a lot of support in the comments.

[cabbageandribs1875]

Today @lornagreens and I replied to a constituent of mine called James, who is really keen to have a local Green candidate in May. Thanks for your enthusiasm James, don't forget to Vote Like Your Future Depends On It!! https://t.co/iipbg5QbgD



��������





brilliant, bang-on as well, BLis have no desire to see a progressive Scotland, just the status quo sucking up to their London masters