Scottish Independence

[Just Alf]

You're conflating the pollsters and the clients there I think.

All the polls we're talking about are conducted by independent polling firms who are members of the British Polling Council and operate to their guidelines (which means they have to do things like show exactly the question asked, the sample size, how they collected the sample, online or by phone, how the respondents broke down inc DKs and refusals and what weightings they applied to the sample).

but

1. some pollsters tend to show better results for Yes than No or vice versa, eg. Yougov quite no-friendly, Ipsos quite yes-friendly. Most probably due to the weightings they are applying to the sample.

2. the pollsters vet the questions to some extent but they don't set the question, that's up to the client. Some clients ask more straightforward questions than others. Some are seeking to gauge opinion, some to influence it and some just to get a story.

To add an extra layer of confusion, sometimes the pollster is also the client, ie. a pollster will put out a poll just to keep their name out there and show the type of stuff they do.

This all makes sense, and is is what I was trying to say lol.

Just to add the bit in your point 1
It was admitted by the posters when they posted at the time (possible/probable bias), however this time that doesn't seem to be the case... in fact it feels.like there's a bit of kick back when that's pointed out for some reason.

[Ozyhibby]

Strikes causing disruption, whatever next?

I’m wondering if nowadays with all the working from home, the level of disruption is a lot less, which will make things harder for the teachers? My son is off tomorrow but we haven’t had to do anything different because we are both at home anyway.


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[Keith_M]

Are we there yet?

[Stairway 2 7]

I’m wondering if nowadays with all the working from home, the level of disruption is a lot less, which will make things harder for the teachers? My son is off tomorrow but we haven’t had to do anything different because we are both at home anyway.


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Vast majority of people still travel to a physical workplace, so it will affect every sector

[J-C]

Just noticed this in one of the unionist go to publications. Feel the love, eh?26380


Says it all eh?

[Smartie]

Just noticed this in one of the unionist go to publications. Feel the love, eh?26380

As someone who was shocked and horrified to find out that I’m genetically way over 50% English I can actually relate to the comedy of that piece.

[grunt]

As someone who was shocked and horrified to find out that I’m genetically way over 50% English I can actually relate to the comedy of that piece.

"Comedy". Forgive me for not laughing.

[He's here!]

Strikes causing disruption, whatever next?

This is a wholly unintended and unnecessary disruption though. On previous strike days the schools were simply closed, allowing non-teaching staff (of which there are significantly more than you might imagine and who are often among the most chronically underpaid members of the country's workforce) who have primary school aged kids to be at home. This time round, for no discernable purpose, the school buildings are to remain open despite the staff being asked to attend 'work' having no primary resource (ie children) to work with. As I said, if you don't have access to childcare then you need to take an unpaid day's leave.

I have plenty of sympathy for the striking teachers, none at all for the jobsworth who is putting the boot into workers who in many cases can ill afford to lose a day's wages.

[Santa Cruz]

This is a wholly unintended and unnecessary disruption though. On previous strike days the schools were simply closed, allowing non-teaching staff (of which there are significantly more than you might imagine and who are often among the most chronically underpaid members of the country's workforce) who have primary school aged kids to be at home. This time round, for no discernable purpose, the school buildings are to remain open despite the staff being asked to attend 'work' having no primary resource (ie children) to work with. As I said, if you don't have access to childcare then you need to take an unpaid day's leave.

I have plenty of sympathy for the striking teachers, none at all for the jobsworth who is putting the boot into workers who in many cases can ill afford to lose a day's wages.

The person who took this decision will no doubt be wfh. Hope they have 5 kids all at primary school :greengrin

[JeMeSouviens]

The person who took this decision will no doubt be wfh. Hope they have 5 kids all at primary school :greengrin

Ooooh, that's mean SC :devil:

[Santa Cruz]

Ooooh, that's mean SC :devil:

I know right :greengrin They're not exactly showing their lowest paid staff any gratuitude for all their hard work during the Pandemic by telling them all to attend an empty school.

[Ozyhibby]

https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/economist-radio/id151230264?i=1000593449835

Interesting listen on the economist on how the North Sea is about to experience a new energy boom. Go to about 11.35mins in.


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[Ozyhibby]

https://news.stv.tv/politics/alister-jack-claims-scotland-has-no-desire-to-be-in-eu-despite-overwhelming-remain-vote

Scots don’t want back in the EU.


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[Kato]

https://news.stv.tv/politics/alister-jack-claims-scotland-has-no-desire-to-be-in-eu-despite-overwhelming-remain-vote

Scots don’t want back in the EU.


Sent from my iPhone using TapatalkHeid firmly wedged in the sand.

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[WeeRussell]

Heid firmly wedged in the sand.

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Just when you think that man can’t make himself look any more of a deluded plum.

[Ozyhibby]

https://twitter.com/davidghfrost/status/1613805137306296321?s=46&t=k7gAozetlooCcXIsbOoE8Q


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[Kato]

https://twitter.com/davidghfrost/status/1613805137306296321?s=46&t=k7gAozetlooCcXIsbOoE8Q


Sent from my iPhone using TapatalkHe's a "Lord". Must mean he's legit.

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[grunt]

https://twitter.com/davidghfrost/status/1613805137306296321?s=46&t=k7gAozetlooCcXIsbOoE8Q

Given the absolute mess he made of Brexit you'd have thought he'd have a bit more self-awareness and learn to keep his trap shut about things he doesn't understand. But no, he's a perfect example of the modern 21st Century Tory. A complete idiot.

[Kato]

Given the absolute mess he made of Brexit you'd have thought he'd have a bit more self-awareness and learn to keep his trap shut about things he doesn't understand. But no, he's a perfect example of the modern 21st Century Tory. A complete idiot.He's a columnist for The Telegraph. I think that alone displays his moral fibre.

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[Ozyhibby]

Given the absolute mess he made of Brexit you'd have thought he'd have a bit more self-awareness and learn to keep his trap shut about things he doesn't understand. But no, he's a perfect example of the modern 21st Century Tory. A complete idiot.

At least he is being honest about their plan. ‘Scotland must be fought, defeated and reformed’.


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[Kato]

At least he is being honest about their plan. ‘Scotland must be fought, defeated and reformed’.


Sent from my iPhone using TapatalkIt the way Putin talks about Ukraine.

Putin doesn't have to fight, defeat and reform Tory England, he just bought it instead.

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[Ozyhibby]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-64266046

As a supporter of Indy I think it’s great that UK PM’s no longer speak to the Scottish press or people while they jet in like visiting foreign heads of state. Helps distance them from the Scottish people.


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[He's here!]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-64266046

As a supporter of Indy I think it’s great that UK PM’s no longer speak to the Scottish press or people while they jet in like visiting foreign heads of state. Helps distance them from the Scottish people.




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I read that piece and he's hardly painting Sturgeon in a favourable light either.

He really seems to labour the point that neither were for hanging around for the press though and it reads more like a report from a journalist who was tasked with writing an in-depth piece on the meeting, hung around in the cold for ages only to discover there were no quotes forthcoming and decided to have a lengthy dig at them instead.

[Ozyhibby]

I read that piece and he's hardly painting Sturgeon in a favourable light either.

He really seems to labour the point that neither were for hanging around though and it reads more like a report from a journalist who was tasked with writing an in-depth piece on the meeting, hung around in the cold for ages only to discover there were no quotes forthcoming and decided to have a lengthy dig at them instead.

I don’t think anyone thinks that Sturgeon is shy of meeting the media or meeting people in Scotland?


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[Stairway 2 7]

https://archive.ph/O0TQl

Pope Francis: 'The English' have resolved Scottish independence debate

[Ozyhibby]

https://archive.ph/O0TQl

Pope Francis: 'The English' have resolved Scottish independence debate

I guess they have. For now.


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[Just Alf]

I don’t think anyone thinks that Sturgeon is shy of meeting the media or meeting people in Scotland?


Sent from my iPhone using TapatalkNope she even stopped and answered journalist's questions when she was leaving Inverness

Edit... and didn't have a government employee sitting in a range rover driving backwards and forwards blocking photographers and the public getting sight of her going into a hotel

[Ozyhibby]

Nope she even stopped and answered journalist's questions when she was leaving Inverness

Edit... and didn't have a government employee sitting in a range rover driving backwards and forwards blocking photographers and the public getting sight of her going into a hotel

I wonder if that was because he didn’t want his height compared with Sturgeons? Seems a weird thing to do.


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[Stairway 2 7]

If the general election is just a vote to see who wants a referendum, then I'm pretty certain no referendum for a good number of years. Snp will be in power for 15 years at least, a labour government in charge, uk should be back in growth. If labour get a closer deal with Europe then it could be a hard shift. Hopefully youth coming through will help keep yes in it

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/scotlands-snp-set-row-back-de-facto-independence-referendum-times-2023-01-14/?taid=63c1ffc2878c9f0001865560&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

Scotland's SNP set to row back on de facto independence referendum- The Times

- Scottish first minister Nicola sturgeon is preparing to row back on her plan to make the next general election in 2024 a "de facto referendum" on Scottish independence, The Times reported on Saturday.

The Scottish National Party (SNP)'s executive committee will be presented with an alternative option on Saturday which would say that votes for the SNP will be treated as a show of support for a second referendum, not a backing for separation, the newspaper said citing a document seen by them

[Ozyhibby]

If the general election is just a vote to see who wants a referendum, then I'm pretty certain no referendum for a good number of years. Snp will be in power for 15 years at least, a labour government in charge, uk should be back in growth. If labour get a closer deal with Europe then it could be a hard shift. Hopefully youth coming through will help keep yes in it

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/scotlands-snp-set-row-back-de-facto-independence-referendum-times-2023-01-14/?taid=63c1ffc2878c9f0001865560&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

Scotland's SNP set to row back on de facto independence referendum- The Times

- Scottish first minister Nicola sturgeon is preparing to row back on her plan to make the next general election in 2024 a "de facto referendum" on Scottish independence, The Times reported on Saturday.

The Scottish National Party (SNP)'s executive committee will be presented with an alternative option on Saturday which would say that votes for the SNP will be treated as a show of support for a second referendum, not a backing for separation, the newspaper said citing a document seen by them

Hope that’s true. I don’t like the de facto referendum idea.


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[GlesgaeHibby]

If the general election is just a vote to see who wants a referendum, then I'm pretty certain no referendum for a good number of years. Snp will be in power for 15 years at least, a labour government in charge, uk should be back in growth. If labour get a closer deal with Europe then it could be a hard shift. Hopefully youth coming through will help keep yes in it

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/scotlands-snp-set-row-back-de-facto-independence-referendum-times-2023-01-14/?taid=63c1ffc2878c9f0001865560&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

Scotland's SNP set to row back on de facto independence referendum- The Times

- Scottish first minister Nicola sturgeon is preparing to row back on her plan to make the next general election in 2024 a "de facto referendum" on Scottish independence, The Times reported on Saturday.

The Scottish National Party (SNP)'s executive committee will be presented with an alternative option on Saturday which would say that votes for the SNP will be treated as a show of support for a second referendum, not a backing for separation, the newspaper said citing a document seen by them

Entirely expected, but utterly depressing. How many mandates have the SNP secured so far? Why will Westminster suddenly listen if we get just one more? Hopefully now folk will wake up to the endless carrot dangling by the SNP purely to secure power and another few years on the gravy train for their MPs. Been in power for 15 years now, and heading in the same direction as Scottish Labour were pre-2007 in terms of complacency.

[He's here!]

If the general election is just a vote to see who wants a referendum, then I'm pretty certain no referendum for a good number of years. Snp will be in power for 15 years at least, a labour government in charge, uk should be back in growth. If labour get a closer deal with Europe then it could be a hard shift. Hopefully youth coming through will help keep yes in it

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/scotlands-snp-set-row-back-de-facto-independence-referendum-times-2023-01-14/?taid=63c1ffc2878c9f0001865560&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

Scotland's SNP set to row back on de facto independence referendum- The Times

- Scottish first minister Nicola sturgeon is preparing to row back on her plan to make the next general election in 2024 a "de facto referendum" on Scottish independence, The Times reported on Saturday.

The Scottish National Party (SNP)'s executive committee will be presented with an alternative option on Saturday which would say that votes for the SNP will be treated as a show of support for a second referendum, not a backing for separation, the newspaper said citing a document seen by them

Who is remotely surprised by this? After nearly a decade of 'jam tomorrow' pledges by Sturgeon you'd think her devotees would be wise to her empty promises by now.

https://wingsoverscotland.com/wp-content/uploads/indypishsupertall2a.jpg

[He's here!]

Entirely expected, but utterly depressing. How many mandates have the SNP secured so far? Why will Westminster suddenly listen if we get just one more? Hopefully now folk will wake up to the endless carrot dangling by the SNP purely to secure power and another few years on the gravy train for their MPs. Been in power for 15 years now, and heading in the same direction as Scottish Labour were pre-2007 in terms of complacency.

The SNP's Westminster branch (under new leadership) have been conspicuously underwhelmed by the 'de facto' masterplan, presumably because they're uneasy about losing their lucrative expense accounts and pensions. Why risk that when you could have a good few more years of sniping from the sidelines? For as long as the faithful are prepared to have the indy carrot dangled in front of them without the SNP actually trying to achieve independence then the cushy status quo of power without responsibility will just drag on an on.

[Ozyhibby]

Hope this is true. Indy has to be done by building enough support for it. There are no shortcuts. It must be done through a legal referendum. There has to be losers consent for any result.


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[GlesgaeHibby]

The SNP's Westminster branch (under new leadership) have been conspicuously underwhelmed by the 'de facto' masterplan, presumably because they're uneasy about losing their lucrative expense accounts and pensions. Why risk that when you could have a good few more years of sniping from the sidelines? For as long as the faithful are prepared to have the indy carrot dangled in front of them without the SNP actually trying to achieve independence then the cushy status quo of power without responsibility will just drag on an on.

That perfectly sums up the SNP's reasons for inaction. The state of politics in Scotland and the UK is awful just now. I'm sick to the back teeth of hearing that performance in the NHS is awful, but less awful than the rest of the UK so it's all ok. Far too easy for the SNP to blame Westminster, without taking any serious action to achieve independence. (I'm equally fed up with Ross and Sarwar carping from the sidelines on this too).

[Ozyhibby]

That perfectly sums up the SNP's reasons for inaction. The state of politics in Scotland and the UK is awful just now. I'm sick to the back teeth of hearing that performance in the NHS is awful, but less awful than the rest of the UK so it's all ok. Far too easy for the SNP to blame Westminster, without taking any serious action to achieve independence. (I'm equally fed up with Ross and Sarwar carping from the sidelines on this too).

What action are you suggesting?


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[Skol]

Hope this is true. Indy has to be done by building enough support for it. There are no shortcuts. It must be done through a legal referendum. There has to be losers consent for any result.


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This confuses me as you seem to do your best to dismiss no voters rather than win them around.

[grunt]

The SNP's Westminster branch (under new leadership) have been conspicuously underwhelmed by the 'de facto' masterplan, presumably because they're uneasy about losing their lucrative expense accounts and pensions. Why risk that when you could have a good few more years of sniping from the sidelines?
This is such a ****ing stupid argument.

[grunt]

I'm sick to the back teeth of hearing that performance in the NHS is awful, but less awful than the rest of the UK so it's all ok.
I haven't heard anyone suggesting that they are "ok" with the state of the NHS in Scotland? What annoys me is Tories (and to some extent Labour) criticising the SG for a situation that is not as bad as the health services in places where they are in charge.

[Ozyhibby]

This is such a ****ing stupid argument.

Isn’t it. I would say the rewards and opportunities for politicians that delivered Indy would be a lot higher than in the status quo.


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[Ozyhibby]

This confuses me as you seem to do your best to dismiss no voters rather than win them around.

I would say No campaigners rather than No voters.


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[Stairway 2 7]

Isn’t it. I would say the rewards and opportunities for politicians that delivered Indy would be a lot higher than in the status quo.


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No chance. There won't be mp msp jobs for all the snp that have them now post independence. Must be hundreds of snp staff catering for Westminster politics, more on top fighting for gaining independence. Post independence snp jobs will be decimated.

I don't believe the Westminster mps don't want independence though

[Ozyhibby]

No chance. There won't be mp msp jobs for all the snp that have them now post independence. Must be hundreds of snp staff catering for Westminster politics, more on top fighting for gaining independence. Post independence snp jobs will be decimated.

I don't believe the Westminster mps don't want independence though

Maybe we have a second chamber in an Indy Scotland?


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[Stairway 2 7]

Maybe we have a second chamber in an Indy Scotland?


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Ifs and buts. Snp will also be a smaller party once the war is won. Who knows what parties will emerge. I think we'll be like Northern Ireland with separation parties and rejoin.

The rejoin movement will be strong, particularly when our finances will undeniably be worse for years post independence. We need to be fully on the road to rejoining EU to give people hope of a better future

[He's here!]

I haven't heard anyone suggesting that they are "ok" with the state of the NHS in Scotland? What annoys me is Tories (and to some extent Labour) criticising the SG for a situation that is not as bad as the health services in places where they are in charge.

I think folk are taking exception to daft claims that Scotland runs the 'best' health service in the UK and trying to frame that as a positive. The truth is that Scotland runs, at a pinch, the least worst service.

Why would Tory and Labour MSPs (ie put in place by the Scottish electorate) not criticise the efforts of the SG here? Better funded than any other part of the UK and with the NHS in Scotland 100% devolved to Holyrood (ie all policy and spending decisions are made here), they're hardly displaying prowess in running it.

[Berwickhibby]

I think folk are taking exception to daft claims that Scotland runs the 'best' health service in the UK and trying to frame that as a positive. The truth is that Scotland runs, at a pinch, the least worst service.

Why would Tory and Labour MSPs (ie put in place by the Scottish electorate) not criticise the efforts of the SG here? Better funded than any other part of the UK and with the NHS in Scotland 100% devolved to Holyrood (ie all policy and spending decisions are made here), they're hardly displaying prowess in running it.

Now now He’s Here ::rules::rules: you cannot be saying saying that about the SNP/Green alliance and the wonderful job the Health Minister is doing in Scotland…just like his magnificent performance as Education Minister

[Hibrandenburg]

Now now He’s Here ::rules::rules: you cannot be saying saying that about the SNP/Green alliance and the wonderful job the Health Minister is doing in Scotland…just like his magnificent performance as Education Minister

It's been said several times and nobody has been arrested, disappeared mysteriously overnight nor banned from these forums.

[Berwickhibby]

It's been said several times and nobody has been arrested, disappeared mysteriously overnight nor banned from these forums.

Only due to username anonymity…. 🤣🤣🤣 waiting for your response on the wonderful job our Health Minister is doing here in Scotland….let me assure you does not come close to the service AOK or Barma provides.

[CropleyWasGod]

It's been said several times and nobody has been arrested, disappeared mysteriously overnight nor banned from these forums.

I dunno. I'm currently posting from an undisclosed location, living under the name Hilda, and using a burner that I keep up my jacksie.

[Berwickhibby]

I dunno. I'm currently posting from an undisclosed location, living under the name Hilda, and using a burner that I keep up my jacksie.

Is that you Derek Mackay 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

[He's here!]

Now now He’s Here ::rules::rules: you cannot be saying saying that about the SNP/Green alliance and the wonderful job the Health Minister is doing in Scotland…just like his magnificent performance as Education Minister

Not sure he's ever had an education role? Might be wrong though.

I'd be surprised though if even he couldn't do a more competent job than Somerville, who is making Swinney look statesmanlike. Her claims to be 'leaving no stone unturned' in a bid to resolve the teaching strikes seem only to have resulted in a further 38 planned days of strike action across Scotland.

[Berwickhibby]

Not sure he's ever had an education role? Might be wrong though.

I'd be surprised though if even he couldn't do a more competent job than Somerville, who is making Swinney look statesmanlike. Her claims to be 'leaving no stone unturned' in a bid to resolve the teaching strikes seem only to have resulted in a further 38 planned days of strike action across Scotland.

You are completely right, I stand corrected, it was Justice he made an arse off :greengrin

[GlesgaeHibby]

What action are you suggesting?


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Anything beyond dangling a carrot every few years, and hoping that at some point if we keep asking nicely Westminster will allow a referendum.

Plenty could have been done since 2014. Instead of trying to stop Brexit for the whole UK, the SNP could have supported Theresa May's softer Brexit deal than we ended up with in return for a referendum. They should have been ready to spring into action following the Supreme Court verdict and capitalise on the outrage - instead we get a special conference 4 months down the line, where it looks like the promised de-facto route will be thrown out. They could call a Scottish Parliament election and fight it on the single issue of independence - with the added benefit that the franchise extends to 16-17 year olds and EU nationals. Blackford and Sturgeon have been absolute masters at talking a good game, and delivering next to nothing.

[James310]

How it started:

Nicola Sturgeon in June 2022.

"I can announce that the Scottish Government is proposing that the independence referendum be held on Thursday the 19th of October 2023."

"But if the law says that is not possible, the General Election will be a ‘de facto’ referendum.

Either way, the people of Scotland will have their say"

How it's going:

"The SNP’s ruling national executive committee will be presented with an alternative option today, however, that offers a severely watered down version of her bold statement last year.

The document, seen by The Times, says votes for the SNP would be treated merely as a show of support for a second referendum rather than backing for separation. In this second option the bar for victory at the election — due to be held in 2024 — has been lowered from more than 50 per cent of the vote to a simple majority of nationalist MPs, which would be treated as a sign of support for a second referendum."

It's now obvious it won't be Nicola Sturgeon being the SNP leader if and when any referendum happens. It's over for her now.

[weecounty hibby]

I struggle to understand the glee that there is for Scotland to be treated as a beggar. Begging for scraps at the table of a neighbour who frankly hasn’t a pot to piss in themselves but keep on borrowing to keep up appearances of being well off. Happy to bend the knee to those they believe to be their betters due to centuries of undermining our own history, being made to believe that our neighbours history is our history. Constantly being told that we are somehow uniquely incapable of directing our own affairs without the direction of those who do not have our interests at heart only what’s best for them. I can’t imagine a life where you believe that this is the best we can ever aspire to but some seem to accept that it’s it. There is delight that we have striking workers as it shows Scotland to be in turmoil but no acceptance that we have negotiated well so far with unions. A delight that scotlands NHS isn’t performing where it should be and a sneer when pointed out that it’s actually performing above the rest. Folk delight in downcrying our politicians but are happy for the likes of Johnson, Rees Mogg, Dorries, Truss and Sunak to tell you that they know best for Scotland. Outrage at the passing of bills at Holyrood if some don’t agree but acceptance of bill being passed in Westminster that make Scotland poorer.

[grunt]

I struggle to understand the glee that there is for Scotland to be treated as a beggar. Begging for scraps at the table of a neighbour who frankly hasn’t a pot to piss in themselves but keep on borrowing to keep up appearances of being well off. Happy to bend the knee to those they believe to be their betters due to centuries of undermining our own history, being made to believe that our neighbours history is our history. Constantly being told that we are somehow uniquely incapable of directing our own affairs without the direction of those who do not have our interests at heart only what’s best for them. I can’t imagine a life where you believe that this is the best we can ever aspire to but some seem to accept that it’s it. There is delight that we have striking workers as it shows Scotland to be in turmoil but no acceptance that we have negotiated well so far with unions. A delight that scotlands NHS isn’t performing where it should be and a sneer when pointed out that it’s actually performing above the rest. Folk delight in downcrying our politicians but are happy for the likes of Johnson, Rees Mogg, Dorries, Truss and Sunak to tell you that they know best for Scotland. Outrage at the passing of bills at Holyrood if some don’t agree but acceptance of bill being passed in Westminster that make Scotland poorer.
Thank you.

[Ozyhibby]

https://twitter.com/dinosofos/status/1614190496775012352?s=46&t=iISKQjd8daoXUgX3D3_xHw

Colin Mackay prob the best interviewer in Scotland just now. He’s given SNP politicians the same treatment as well.
Sunak with no answers other than ‘quiet Scotland, we’ll decide’.

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[Callum_62]

https://twitter.com/dinosofos/status/1614190496775012352?s=46&t=iISKQjd8daoXUgX3D3_xHw

Colin Mackay prob the best interviewer in Scotland just now. He’s given SNP politicians the same treatment as well.
Sunak with no answers other than ‘quiet Scotland, we’ll decide’.

Sent from my iPhone using TapatalkSunaks doing a cracking chicken impersonation there to give him his due

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[He's here!]

I struggle to understand the glee that there is for Scotland to be treated as a beggar. Begging for scraps at the table of a neighbour who frankly hasn’t a pot to piss in themselves but keep on borrowing to keep up appearances of being well off. Happy to bend the knee to those they believe to be their betters due to centuries of undermining our own history, being made to believe that our neighbours history is our history. Constantly being told that we are somehow uniquely incapable of directing our own affairs without the direction of those who do not have our interests at heart only what’s best for them. I can’t imagine a life where you believe that this is the best we can ever aspire to but some seem to accept that it’s it. There is delight that we have striking workers as it shows Scotland to be in turmoil but no acceptance that we have negotiated well so far with unions. A delight that scotlands NHS isn’t performing where it should be and a sneer when pointed out that it’s actually performing above the rest. Folk delight in downcrying our politicians but are happy for the likes of Johnson, Rees Mogg, Dorries, Truss and Sunak to tell you that they know best for Scotland. Outrage at the passing of bills at Holyrood if some don’t agree but acceptance of bill being passed in Westminster that make Scotland poorer.

There's a world of difference between pointing out that the Scottish government haven't exactly set the heather alight when it comes to proving their competence in government and expressing 'glee' or 'delight' at that. In fact, I think you'd struggle to find anyone on here taking any sort of pleasure from it.

Those who don't think Nicola Sturgeon walks on water are by and large simply pointing out that throwing the independence blanket over anything that doesn't paint the SG in a positive light doesn't really cut it. The fact that Sturgeon has pitted herself against 3 of the most hapless PMs in history yet barely moved the dial on independence indicates that a hefty percentage of the population outwith Hibs.net's Holy Ground are far from convinced by her credentials to assume sole control of our country either.

[Keith_M]

... a hefty percentage of the population outwith Hibs.net's Holy Ground are far from convinced by her credentials to assume sole control of our country either.


Just to clarify:

Independence for Scotland doe NOT mean Nicola Sturgeon is automatically in charge.

As I understand it... and feel free to correct me... that the idea is that we have a thing called 'democracy', where the population vote for whoever they feel should be in charge.

[grunt]

There's a world of difference between pointing out that the Scottish government haven't exactly set the heather alight when it comes to proving their competence in government and expressing 'glee' or 'delight' at that. In fact, I think you'd struggle to find anyone on here taking any sort of pleasure from it.

Those who don't think Nicola Sturgeon walks on water are by and large simply pointing out that throwing the independence blanket over anything that doesn't paint the SG in a positive light doesn't really cut it. The fact that Sturgeon has pitted herself against 3 of the most hapless PMs in history yet barely moved the dial on independence indicates that a hefty percentage of the population outwith Hibs.net's Holy Ground are far from convinced by her credentials to assume sole control of our country either.
Yeah, let's have Anas Sarwar, he'd be a much better leader.

[He's here!]

Just to clarify:

Independence for Scotland doe NOT mean Nicola Sturgeon is automatically in charge.

As I understand it... and feel free to correct me... that the idea is that we have a thing called 'democracy', where the population vote for whoever they feel should be in charge.

In the unlikely event independence comes to pass during her time as FM, it's almost inconceivable she wouldn't be in charge initially.

[He's here!]

Yeah, let's have Anas Sarwar, he'd be a much better leader.

He already IS the leader.

[Moulin Yarns]

In the unlikely event independence comes to pass during her time as FM, it's almost inconceivable she wouldn't be in charge initially.

Initially, aye, longer term you can vote for whoever. That's democracy my friend 😉

[marinello59]

Hope that’s true. I don’t like the de facto referendum idea.


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Fingers crossed it is dumped. I thought it was a joke when it was first mentioned.

[James310]

Hope that’s true. I don’t like the de facto referendum idea.


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You won't like this then, still planning to have a defacto referendum but in a few years at the next Holyrood election. Maybe they will have a special conference in 2025 and kick it back to the next General Election due in 2029.

"Should that demand – backed by the Scottish people – be denied again, the SNP will contest the Scottish Parliament election in 2026 as a de facto referendum."

[He's here!]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-64275625

Party faithful being softened up to kick the can down the road until 2026...at least.

[He's here!]

You won't like this then, still planning to have a defacto referendum but in a few years at the next Holyrood election. Maybe they will have a special conference in 2025 and kick it back to the next General Election due in 2029.

"Should that demand – backed by the Scottish people – be denied again, the SNP will contest the Scottish Parliament election in 2026 as a de facto referendum."

And I see the bar for 'victory' in 2024 has been lowered from more than 50% of the Scottish electorate to a mere majority of nationalist MPs. Quite the watering down of the post-Supreme Court sabre rattling.

[Hibrandenburg]

In the unlikely event independence comes to pass during her time as FM, it's almost inconceivable she wouldn't be in charge initially.

And that's a bad thing why? She's head and shoulders above any other current politician on these islands. Maybe you'd like to enlighten us who is better qualified to lead us out of this ****ing mess of a Banana Republic?

[Glory Lurker]

And I see the bar for 'victory' in 2024 has been lowered from more than 50% of the Scottish electorate to a mere majority of nationalist MPs. Quite the watering down of the post-Supreme Court sabre rattling.

Well that is exactly how the UK system works. We've had the Tories destroying this island for 13 years, some of which they didn't even get that.

[marinello59]

And that's a bad thing why? She's head and shoulders above any other current politician on these islands. Maybe you'd like to enlighten us who is better qualified to lead us out of this ****ing mess of a Banana Republic?

I thinks supporters of every party would claim that their leader is head and shoulders above every other leader and they’d all be wrong
The real political leadership is coming from the Unions. They are the ones making a genuine difference to working peoples lives. Join a Union!

[Stairway 2 7]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-64275625

Party faithful being softened up to kick the can down the road until 2026...at least.

That's ridiculous. Defacto referendums are just silly when people vote for a multitude of reasons. Regardless if they go with this there's no going to be a referendum in the next 5 years

[He's here!]

And that's a bad thing why? She's head and shoulders above any other current politician on these islands. Maybe you'd like to enlighten us who is better qualified to lead us out of this ****ing mess of a Banana Republic?

I was simply replying to a poster who suggested Sturgeon would not necessarily be the first leader of am independent Scotland.

[Ozyhibby]

https://twitter.com/stewartmcdonald/status/1614546017139003393?s=46&t=9f72lnALKJFxdzYSGeuf7A

Great thread from Stewart McDonald.


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[grunt]

Just think. If Scotland becomes independent it will lose all those MoD jobs building the Type 32 frigates.

Oh.

https://archive.ph/dqAsL


Fears for Scots shipbuilding as prime minister prepares to scrap £2.5bn frigate order

[grunt]

He already IS the leader.
He's not the leader. He's a very naughty boy.

Leaders have power and achieve things. What has Sarwar ever done for Scotland?

[Ozyhibby]

Anything beyond dangling a carrot every few years, and hoping that at some point if we keep asking nicely Westminster will allow a referendum.

Plenty could have been done since 2014. Instead of trying to stop Brexit for the whole UK, the SNP could have supported Theresa May's softer Brexit deal than we ended up with in return for a referendum. They should have been ready to spring into action following the Supreme Court verdict and capitalise on the outrage - instead we get a special conference 4 months down the line, where it looks like the promised de-facto route will be thrown out. They could call a Scottish Parliament election and fight it on the single issue of independence - with the added benefit that the franchise extends to 16-17 year olds and EU nationals. Blackford and Sturgeon have been absolute masters at talking a good game, and delivering next to nothing.

There are massive problems with all of the solution you come up with.
There was zero chance of securing a referendum from Theresa May no matter what we offered on Brexit. She would have been kicked out by her own party even earlier if she looked like offering that.
The de-facto referendum just doesn’t work for me. It won’t be respected by the losers or the international community. Both of those are very important.
Folding the Scottish parliament in order to have another election would be punished with voters and that would set Indy back.
The fact is, if we want independence then we have to keep building support for it. That is going well. It’s essentially 50/50 just now which is progress from 2014. There will be fluctuations but the direction of travel remains positive.
Patience is the key now. The denial of democracy by Westminster is now the biggest issue and it’s very difficult to argue against. The longer they do it, the better for those who support Indy. You can see it every time a unionist politician is interviewed now. They tie themselves in knots trying to not answer the question. And every time they do it, the people of Scotland recognise it. We are not stupid. We know when someone is feeding us BS.
Eventually a 2nd referendum will come about. We need to be ready. The longer it takes, the more the demographics move in our direction.
There is nobody selling the positive case for the union anymore and there are not a lot of Scottish unionist politicians to choose from these days. The longer it takes for the next campaign the better. There are only 68 unionist politicians to choose from just now in Scotland. None of them have any cabinet or executive experience. There are no big hitters. When there is another referendum they will need to look outside elected politicians. That will cause them problems.
In other words, show some patience. It will come soon enough.


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[grunt]

Plenty could have been done since 2014. Instead of trying to stop Brexit for the whole UK, the SNP could have supported Theresa May's softer Brexit deal than we ended up with in return for a referendum. I missed this first time round. There was no "softer TM deal". She was the one who decided that we would not be in the SM and CU. There was never a softer deal on offer.

[James310]

There are massive problems with all of the solution you come up with.
There was zero chance of securing a referendum from Theresa May no matter what we offered on Brexit. She would have been kicked out by her own party even earlier if she looked like offering that.
The de-facto referendum just doesn’t work for me. It won’t be respected by the losers or the international community. Both of those are very important.
Folding the Scottish parliament in order to have another election would be punished with voters and that would set Indy back.
The fact is, if we want independence then we have to keep building support for it. That is going well. It’s essentially 50/50 just now which is progress from 2014. There will be fluctuations but the direction of travel remains positive.
Patience is the key now. The denial of democracy by Westminster is now the biggest issue and it’s very difficult to argue against. The longer they do it, the better for those who support Indy. You can see it every time a unionist politician is interviewed now. They tie themselves in knots trying to not answer the question. And every time they do it, the people of Scotland recognise it. We are not stupid. We know when someone is feeding us BS.
Eventually a 2nd referendum will come about. We need to be ready. The longer it takes, the more the demographics move in our direction.
There is nobody selling the positive case for the union anymore and there are not a lot of Scottish unionist politicians to choose from these days. The longer it takes for the next campaign the better. There are only 68 unionist politicians to choose from just now in Scotland. None of them have any cabinet or executive experience. There are no big hitters. When there is another referendum they will need to look outside elected politicians. That will cause them problems.
In other words, show some patience. It will come soon enough.


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Great speech but the SNP are proposing the total opposite, it's de facto referendum in 2024 or 2026.

Also the de facto referendum won't actually lead to Independence, a legal recognised actual referendum will still be required.

[He's here!]

I missed this first time round. There was no "softer TM deal". She was the one who decided that we would not be in the SM and CU. There was never a softer deal on offer.

We ended up with a significantly harder Brexit deal than Theresa May's once Boris Johnson secured a huge Tory majority with a snap election. The SNP, however, were determined to deny democracy no matter what deal was on the table.

[Hibrandenburg]

We ended up with a significantly harder Brexit deal than Theresa May's once Boris Johnson secured a huge Tory majority with a snap election. The SNP, however, were determined to deny democracy no matter what deal was on the table.

Aye, Brexit was the SNP's fault :faf:

[He's here!]

There are massive problems with all of the solution you come up with.
There was zero chance of securing a referendum from Theresa May no matter what we offered on Brexit. She would have been kicked out by her own party even earlier if she looked like offering that.
The de-facto referendum just doesn’t work for me. It won’t be respected by the losers or the international community. Both of those are very important.
Folding the Scottish parliament in order to have another election would be punished with voters and that would set Indy back.
The fact is, if we want independence then we have to keep building support for it. That is going well. It’s essentially 50/50 just now which is progress from 2014. There will be fluctuations but the direction of travel remains positive.
Patience is the key now. The denial of democracy by Westminster is now the biggest issue and it’s very difficult to argue against. The longer they do it, the better for those who support Indy. You can see it every time a unionist politician is interviewed now. They tie themselves in knots trying to not answer the question. And every time they do it, the people of Scotland recognise it. We are not stupid. We know when someone is feeding us BS.
Eventually a 2nd referendum will come about. We need to be ready. The longer it takes, the more the demographics move in our direction.
There is nobody selling the positive case for the union anymore and there are not a lot of Scottish unionist politicians to choose from these days. The longer it takes for the next campaign the better. There are only 68 unionist politicians to choose from just now in Scotland. None of them have any cabinet or executive experience. There are no big hitters. When there is another referendum they will need to look outside elected politicians. That will cause them problems.
In other words, show some patience. It will come soon enough.


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So at least four more years of grievance politics then...and likely a good many more once the Holyrood de facto election idea is rejected. That's a lot of patience to ask for.

I, along with many others, would be left wishing we'd voted against devolution if that's what lies in store.

[Jack]

He's not the leader. He's a very naughty boy.

Leaders have power and achieve things. What has Sarwar ever done for Scotland?

Can only hope he was a better dentist than he is a politician!

If only we could train 'our own people' to fill the gaps (no pun intended) in our NHS services and all that.

What can we do about people who take up university and training places to staff the NHS then decide to leave and do something completely unrelated?

Governments, all hues, have been castigated for not increasing the number of places for pretty much all NHS disciplines but then folk who take up these places bugger off and do something else 😠

And that's not taking into account the disappointed prospective dentist, in this case, who failed to get a space on a dentistry course.

[grunt]

The SNP, however, were determined to deny democracy no matter what deal was on the table.What do you mean? "Deny democracy"? Scotland never voted for Brexit.

[Ozyhibby]

Can only hope he was a better dentist than he is a politician!

If only we could train 'our own people' to fill the gaps (no pun intended) in our NHS services and all that.

What can we do about people who take up university and training places to staff the NHS then decide to leave and do something completely unrelated?

Governments, all hues, have been castigated for not increasing the number of places for pretty much all NHS disciplines but then folk who take up these places bugger off and do something else [emoji34]

And that's not taking into account the disappointed prospective dentist, in this case, who failed to get a space on a dentistry course.

Make the NHS an attractive place to work and it won’t be a problem?


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[Ozyhibby]

Great speech but the SNP are proposing the total opposite, it's de facto referendum in 2024 or 2026.

Also the de facto referendum won't actually lead to Independence, a legal recognised actual referendum will still be required.

I just said I don’t like the de-facto referendum idea.


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[grunt]

What can we do about people who take up university and training places to staff the NHS then decide to leave and do something completely unrelated?
While I agree with your frustration that Sarwar didn't remain as a dentist and save us his interminable dreariness in parliament, I'm not sure we should be legislating to prevent people changing careers if they want to. That's the sort of thing the Tories would do.

[Kato]

We ended up with a significantly harder Brexit deal than Theresa May's once Boris Johnson secured a huge Tory majority with a snap election. The SNP, however, were determined to deny democracy no matter what deal was on the table.Brexit means brexit.

The Tory Party devised the brexit we have whether by accident or design.

No other parties' input required or realised.

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[James310]

I just said I don’t like the de-facto referendum idea.


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I know very few who think it is a good idea, but that's the strategy for the Independence movement from now on, it's all about the de facto referendum. Personally I think it's an awful strategy for Independence and like you it's about winning over the majority and then it will happen. That seems impossible though for the current incarnation of the SNP.

[He's here!]

What do you mean? "Deny democracy"? Scotland never voted for Brexit.

It was a UK-wide vote. Scotland is part of the UK.

[Ozyhibby]

It was a UK-wide vote. Scotland is part of the UK.

The SNP only represent voters in Scotland though. And Scottish people voted against. The SNP respected that.


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[He's here!]

He's not the leader. He's a very naughty boy.

Leaders have power and achieve things. What has Sarwar ever done for Scotland?

You're right. Got mixed up with my posts last night (thought you were talking about Starmer...which shows the folly of posting after a few drinks).

I agree Sarwar has been disappointingly ineffective. I had hoped for better things from him but he's next to invisible.

[Kato]

It was a UK-wide vote. Scotland is part of the UK.It was also a vote which completely ignored 48% of those who voted. The closeness of the vote maybe should have been interpreted as a call for a softer brexit but that option was ignored in favour of trying to sever each and every tie.

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[Ozyhibby]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-64282309?at_medium=social&at_campaign=Social_Flow&at_bbc_team=editorial&at_link_origin=BBCScotlandNews&at_link_type=web_link&at_format=link&at_link_id=99519784-94D9-11ED-B36F-DB9B4744363C&at_campaign_type=owned&at_ptr_name=twitter


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[He's here!]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-64282309?at_medium=social&at_campaign=Social_Flow&at_bbc_team=editorial&at_link_origin=BBCScotlandNews&at_link_type=web_link&at_format=link&at_link_id=99519784-94D9-11ED-B36F-DB9B4744363C&at_campaign_type=owned&at_ptr_name=twitter


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What will Plan D be?

[marinello59]

It was also a vote which completely ignored 48% of those who voted. The closeness of the vote maybe should have been interpreted as a call for a softer brexit but that option was ignored in favour of trying to sever each and every tie.

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In hindsight rather then trying to reverse the outcome of a democratic vote the remain side should have concentrated on securing a soft Brexit which I think they could have done. They left the ground clear for those wishing for a hard Brexit to control the process.

[marinello59]

What will Plan D be?

Sturgeon sitting with her pants on her head and pencils up her nose.

[Kato]

In hindsight rather then trying to reverse the outcome of a democratic vote the remain side should have concentrated on securing a soft Brexit which I think they could have done. They left the ground clear for those wishing for a hard Brexit to control the process.

Any remain voice was met with "nananafingers in ears."

The leave side could have recognised the closeness of the vote and levelled a brexit which took that into account. Hard to expect when the victors were led by a gang of harpies, but still. It revealed who and what they are.

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[marinello59]

Any remain voice was met with "nananafingers in ears."

The leave side could have recognised the closeness of the vote and levelled a brexit which took that into account. Hard to expect when the victors were led by a gang of harpies, but still. It revealed who and what they are.

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I’m not defending the leave side. :greengrin

Mistakes were made by the remainers though. As much as we disliked the result of the referundum we should have respected it and moved straight to damage limitation mode. That didn’t happen until it was far too late. You can’t blame those wanting a hard Brexit for taking advantage.

[Glory Lurker]

I’m not defending the leave side. :greengrin

Mistakes were made by the remainers though. As much as we disliked the result of the referundum we should have respected it and moved straight to damage limitation mode. That didn’t happen until it was far too late. You can’t blame those wanting a hard Brexit for taking advantage.

What specifically could we have done differently? Throughout the issue was what was being offered wasn't soft enough, so it was voted down.

[Berwickhibby]

Sturgeon sitting with her pants on her head and pencils up her nose.

Saying “Wibble”

[marinello59]

What specifically could we have done differently? Throughout the issue was what was being offered wasn't soft enough, so it was voted down.

The leave side knew what they wanted and presented a firmly focussed united front.
The remain side? There were several factions wanting different things, it was a mess. Let’s face it, the arrogant assumption that we couldn’t lose the referundum was probably the biggest mistake of them all.

[He's here!]

What specifically could we have done differently? Throughout the issue was what was being offered wasn't soft enough, so it was voted down.

Any deal, no matter how soft, was deemed unacceptable by the vast majority of the remain factions. They didn't want a softer deal, they wanted a 'people's vote', whatever that was supposed to mean.

[Kato]

Any deal, no matter how soft, was deemed unacceptable by the vast majority of the remain factions. They didn't want a softer deal, they wanted a 'people's vote', whatever that was supposed to mean.Which softer deals were put forward from the Leave side for them to even be unacceptable?

Softer options were discussed but that was it, spoken about. There was nothing to be done under May's govt as they were stunned at being given the job. Once Johnson was in any further discussion was over.



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[degenerated]

I struggle to understand the glee that there is for Scotland to be treated as a beggar. Begging for scraps at the table of a neighbour who frankly hasn’t a pot to piss in themselves but keep on borrowing to keep up appearances of being well off. Happy to bend the knee to those they believe to be their betters due to centuries of undermining our own history, being made to believe that our neighbours history is our history. Constantly being told that we are somehow uniquely incapable of directing our own affairs without the direction of those who do not have our interests at heart only what’s best for them. I can’t imagine a life where you believe that this is the best we can ever aspire to but some seem to accept that it’s it. There is delight that we have striking workers as it shows Scotland to be in turmoil but no acceptance that we have negotiated well so far with unions. A delight that scotlands NHS isn’t performing where it should be and a sneer when pointed out that it’s actually performing above the rest. Folk delight in downcrying our politicians but are happy for the likes of Johnson, Rees Mogg, Dorries, Truss and Sunak to tell you that they know best for Scotland. Outrage at the passing of bills at Holyrood if some don’t agree but acceptance of bill being passed in Westminster that make Scotland poorer.Well said :agree:

[grunt]

The leave side knew what they wanted and presented a firmly focussed united front.
I'm sorry but this is a joke, right? The LEAVE side "knew what they wanted"???

They don't know what they want now, 6 years after the vote and 2 years after we've left. I'm not having this "LEAVE knew what they wanted". They all wanted different things. And still do, to this day.

[marinello59]

I'm sorry but this is a joke, right? The LEAVE side "knew what they wanted"???

They don't know what they want now, 6 years after the vote and 2 years after we've left. I'm not having this "LEAVE knew what they wanted". They all wanted different things. And still do, to this day.

They wanted a hard Brexit. They got it. Job done.

[grunt]

They wanted a hard Brexit. They got it. Job done.

Who's "they"?

[marinello59]

Who's "they"?

Honestly?
The Brexiteers.

[JeMeSouviens]

In hindsight rather then trying to reverse the outcome of a democratic vote the remain side should have concentrated on securing a soft Brexit which I think they could have done. They left the ground clear for those wishing for a hard Brexit to control the process.

The people wishing for a hard Brexit had the numbers in parliament to block any soft Brexit and, crucially, the overwhelming support of the Tory membership. May couldn't even get a very slightly softened from the very hardest of Brexits deal through.

[TrumpIsAPeado]

The leave side knew what they wanted and presented a firmly focussed united front.

No they didn't. They're still squabbling over what Brexit was supposed to look like. Which likely explains why there's a clear majority for returning to the EU. Not that it matters. You have the 2 largest political parties in the UK both pandering to the minority these days.

[marinello59]

No they didn't. They're still squabbling over what Brexit was supposed to look like. Which likely explains why there's a clear majority for returning to the EU. Not that it matters. You have the 2 largest political parties in the UK both pandering to the minority these days.

I was speaking about what took us to a hard Brexit. They achieved their aim, we didn’t.

[TrumpIsAPeado]

I was speaking about what took us to a hard Brexit. They achieved their aim, we didn’t.

As another user pointed out. Who are "they"?

If you're referring to the hardest of brexiteers, then they were always a minority and an even smaller minority now. Which begs the question. Why are Labour pandering to this fringe these days while alienating the 48% who voted remain + those who have moved firmly back into the remain camp?

I notice the Lib Dems have gone very quiet these days. They have an open goal right in front of them and are more or less invisible.

[marinello59]

As another user pointed out. Who are "they"?

If you're referring to the hardest of brexiteers, then they were always a minority and an even smaller minority now. Which begs the question. Why are Labour pandering to this fringe these days while alienating the 48% who voted remain + those who have moved firmly back into the remain camp?

I notice the Lib Dems have gone very quiet these days. They have an open goal right in front of them and are more or less invisible.

The approach that Labour and the LibDems are taking are a separate question. I was talking about the process that lead to us getting a hard Brexit.

My point was the remain side made mistakes. Does anybody here think the referendum should have been lost in the first place? Taking the result for granted was the first and worst mistake.
I get the feeling some think I am defending Brexit, I’m not. I wish I hadn’t posted now. :greengrin

[archie]

The approach that Labour and the LibDems are taking are a separate question. I was talking about the process that lead to us getting a hard Brexit.

My point was the remain side made mistakes. Does anybody here think the referendum should have been lost in the first place? Taking the result for granted was the first and worst mistake.
I get the feeling some think I am defending Brexit, I’m not. I wish I hadn’t posted now. :greengrin

Stick with it. As a remain voter I am infuriated by the ineptitude of the remain campaign followed by the political positioning afterwards that led to missed opportunities in Parliament.

[Ozyhibby]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230116/f46d6c04bfb1726c6bbacbc52e2fd3e2.jpg

British nationalism comes to the fore?


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[James310]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230116/f46d6c04bfb1726c6bbacbc52e2fd3e2.jpg

British nationalism comes to the fore?


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Mark McGeoghegan 😂

[GlesgaeHibby]

There are massive problems with all of the solution you come up with.
There was zero chance of securing a referendum from Theresa May no matter what we offered on Brexit. She would have been kicked out by her own party even earlier if she looked like offering that.
The de-facto referendum just doesn’t work for me. It won’t be respected by the losers or the international community. Both of those are very important.
Folding the Scottish parliament in order to have another election would be punished with voters and that would set Indy back.
The fact is, if we want independence then we have to keep building support for it. That is going well. It’s essentially 50/50 just now which is progress from 2014. There will be fluctuations but the direction of travel remains positive.
Patience is the key now. The denial of democracy by Westminster is now the biggest issue and it’s very difficult to argue against. The longer they do it, the better for those who support Indy. You can see it every time a unionist politician is interviewed now. They tie themselves in knots trying to not answer the question. And every time they do it, the people of Scotland recognise it. We are not stupid. We know when someone is feeding us BS.
Eventually a 2nd referendum will come about. We need to be ready. The longer it takes, the more the demographics move in our direction.
There is nobody selling the positive case for the union anymore and there are not a lot of Scottish unionist politicians to choose from these days. The longer it takes for the next campaign the better. There are only 68 unionist politicians to choose from just now in Scotland. None of them have any cabinet or executive experience. There are no big hitters. When there is another referendum they will need to look outside elected politicians. That will cause them problems.
In other words, show some patience. It will come soon enough.


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I wish I shared your optimism that more patience will eventually bear fruit. It's essentially based on the hope that Westminster will at some point play ball if we keep giving the SNP mandates, and asking nicely. Backing down on the de-facto referendum is essentially showing your hand to Westminster that you're not serious about delivering independence. Keep it there, and make clear that it can be avoided by negotiating a s.30 transfer of powers again.

I also don't think we should be patient. Westminster keeps inflicting more misery on us. We've had a hard Brexit, pitiful response to the cost of living crisis, public services on their knees, energy companies ripping us off. This should all be fertile ground to positively campaign on.

The demographic argument is an interesting one - we're almost 9 years on from the original referendum and the polls are still hovering around 50:50. My view is that the way we move the dial is to get out and positively campaign. Look at 2014, polls went from c.30% to 50% then back to 45% after the UK establishment threw the kitchen sink at things in the last few days. I'm also convinced that in a few years we'll have a Labour government, things will settle down after a turbulent decade or so (financial crisis, austerity, Brexit, Covid, cost of living crisis). By that point a lot of soft yes voters will probably vote no to see a few boring / stable years.

[Mibbes Aye]

I wish I shared your optimism that more patience will eventually bear fruit. It's essentially based on the hope that Westminster will at some point play ball if we keep giving the SNP mandates, and asking nicely. Backing down on the de-facto referendum is essentially showing your hand to Westminster that you're not serious about delivering independence. Keep it there, and make clear that it can be avoided by negotiating a s.30 transfer of powers again.

I also don't think we should be patient. Westminster keeps inflicting more misery on us. We've had a hard Brexit, pitiful response to the cost of living crisis, public services on their knees, energy companies ripping us off. This should all be fertile ground to positively campaign on.

The demographic argument is an interesting one - we're almost 9 years on from the original referendum and the polls are still hovering around 50:50. My view is that the way we move the dial is to get out and positively campaign. Look at 2014, polls went from c.30% to 50% then back to 45% after the UK establishment threw the kitchen sink at things in the last few days. I'm also convinced that in a few years we'll have a Labour government, things will settle down after a turbulent decade or so (financial crisis, austerity, Brexit, Covid, cost of living crisis). By that point a lot of soft yes voters will probably vote no to see a few boring / stable years.

Or alternatively, when it came the time for a grown-up decision about grown-up things we said 'No thanks'.

[Ozyhibby]

Or alternatively, when it came the time for a grown-up decision about grown-up things we said 'No thanks'.

Time to look at the issue again. In a grown up fashion, of course.


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[The Harp Awakes]

Or alternatively, when it came the time for a grown-up decision about grown-up things we said 'No thanks'.

So 'No' voters in the 2014 referendum were the 'grown-ups' making a 'grown-uo' decision to vote No. So presumably that makes Yes voters the juveniles, making a juvenile decision to vote Yes?

Your arrogance is breathtaking.

[Mibbes Aye]

So 'No' voters in the 2014 referendum were the 'grown-ups' making a 'grown-uo' decision to vote No. So presumably that makes Yes voters the juveniles, making a juvenile decision to vote Yes?

Your arrogance is breathtaking.

I didn't say that though, did I?

So your sense of grievance is misplaced, though if you were a Yes voter I totally get why you would have one.

[James310]

So 'No' voters in the 2014 referendum were the 'grown-ups' making a 'grown-uo' decision to vote No. So presumably that makes Yes voters the juveniles, making a juvenile decision to vote Yes?

Your arrogance is breathtaking.

Why can't both sides be grown ups making grown up decisions based on the information that was presented to them at the time?

[Ozyhibby]

Why can't both sides be grown ups making grown up decisions based on the information that was presented to them at the time?

The info presented at the time was that we had to vote No to stay in the EU.


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[James310]

The info presented at the time was that we had to vote No to stay in the EU.


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At the time in 2014 that was true. We aren't going over this again are we?

Unless you had a time machine then when you went into the polling booth in September 2014 then that was true.

I am really not going down that rabbit hole again, if you think 9 years later it's still something to make gains from then be my guest. I will put it down as another grievance that failed to make any difference.

[grunt]

Or alternatively, when it came the time for a grown-up decision about grown-up things we said 'No thanks'.
If the posters on this thread are any indication, we'll never have a grown-up discussion in Scotland about independence. People don't seem to debate issues any more; they take sides and then selectively quote others who reinforce their own views. We're doomed.

In fact, if you look back over the last 8 years, it seems we've not had grown-up discussions about any political issues in the UK in that time.

[grunt]

At the time in 2014 that was true.
So since you agree there has been a material change in our circumstances you must therefore agree we should put the question to the country again?

[James310]

So since you agree there has been a material change in our circumstances you must therefore agree we should put the question to the country again?

If there was any evidence people had changed their mind, then absolutely yes. Last poll on Indy? Yes on 44%.

As I say not like me to be quiet but it's not worth going over and over this again every few months. Maybe focus for Yes should be on what the future holds, rather than always looking backwards.

Have a great evening.

[grunt]

Scottish Sec to deploy a Section 35 order and veto the Gender Recognition bill on basis of what UK govt says are UK wide equalities legislation implications. Never happened in history of devolution settlement. Huge decision with implications for trans rights and the union.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FmnKR52XoAA696c?format=jpg&name=medium

[grunt]

If there was any evidence people had changed their mind, then absolutely yes. Last poll on Indy? Yes on 44%.

As an apparently intelligent poster on here, you'll know yourself that whether people had changed their minds or not is completely irrelevant. The circumstances changed, and therefore the referendum question should be asked again.

And anyway, I have a great suggestion for finding out whether people have changed their minds or not ...


Have a great evening.You too.

[ronaldo7]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FmnKR52XoAA696c?format=jpg&name=medium

Why deploy the section 35 order when they could have gone with the recognised section 33.

This gives the secretary of state for Scotland immense powers over the parliament.

The viceroy has ruled.

[Mcbizz1998]

When’s the de-facto referendum then? Another 5 years or so?

LOL

[Kato]

At the time in 2014 that was true. We aren't going over this again are we?

Unless you had a time machine then when you went into the polling booth in September 2014 then that was true.

I am really not going down that rabbit hole again, if you think 9 years later it's still something to make gains from then be my guest. I will put it down as another grievance that failed to make any difference.You think a plain statement of fact is a "rabbit hole"?

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[JeMeSouviens]

When’s the de-facto referendum then? Another 5 years or so?

LOL

Another mature and helpful contribution. :rolleyes:

[Ozyhibby]

https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-news-agents/id1640878689?i=1000595021007


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[James310]

First Scottish independence poll of 2023, via @Survation for True North

with don't-knows removed:
No - 56% (+1pts on Sept 2022)
Yes - 44% (-1)

breakdown:
Yes- 41%
No - 47%
Undecided - 11%
Refusedto say - 1%

At what point do Yes supporters go hang on, what we are doing now isn't working?

On the other side the current bunch don't exactly make a great case for the Union with shambles after shambles but do they have to when the case for Independence is obviously not being made.

[hibby rae]

First Scottish independence poll of 2023, via @Survation for True North

with don't-knows removed:
No - 56% (+1pts on Sept 2022)
Yes - 44% (-1)

breakdown:
Yes- 41%
No - 47%
Undecided - 11%
Refusedto say - 1%

At what point do Yes supporters go hang on, what we are doing now isn't working?

On the other side the current bunch don't exactly make a great case for the Union with shambles after shambles but do they have to when the case for Independence is obviously not being made.

Up until the end of December 6 polls in a row showed a support for Yes once don't knows were removed. So the only thing this shows is it could still go either way and polls will swing back and forth depending on what is going on in the world.

[Skol]

Up until the end of December 6 polls in a row showed a support for Yes once don't knows were removed. So the only thing this shows is it could still go either way and polls will swing back and forth depending on what is going on in the world.

That doesn’t answer the question though. Doing nothing and it hovers around 50/50 and nothing changes.

Ozy admitted a few weeks ago that the independence movement need to change strategy and focus on winning over more people rather than alienate them.

[OldEast]

That doesn’t answer the question though. Doing nothing and it hovers around 50/50 and nothing changes.

Ozy admitted a few weeks ago that the independence movement need to change strategy and focus on winning over more people rather than alienate them.

I'm concerned that the yes vote hasn't leapt clear considering the absolute cluster**** in Westminster. Once a date is set for a referendum the attack dogs of the MSM will have an easy job of picking off the weak yes and undecideds.

[James310]

Another poll about Westminster voting intentions.

SNP 43pc
Labour 29pc
Tories 18pc
LD 7pc

The gap between SNP and Labour in the 2019 Westminster election was huge, it was 26.4%. The gap is now 14%, you can see where the trend is going.

And it's yet another de facto referendum defeat.

[Moulin Yarns]

I'm a bit confused, been on @survation twitter and website and there is nothing there other than Conservative councillors unhappy with the national party

https://www.survation.com/majority-of-conservative-councillors-dissatisfied-with-partys-national-performance-in-2022/

You would have thought it would be a headline survey.

[Moulin Yarns]

Another poll about Westminster voting intentions.

SNP 43pc
Labour 29pc
Tories 18pc
LD 7pc

The gap between SNP and Labour in the 2019 Westminster election was huge, it was 26.4%. The gap is now 14%, you can see where the trend is going.

And it's yet another de facto referendum defeat.

People switch from tory to Labour as I understand it.

[Stairway 2 7]

I'm a bit confused, been on @survation twitter and website and there is nothing there other than Conservative councillors unhappy with the national party

https://www.survation.com/majority-of-conservative-councillors-dissatisfied-with-partys-national-performance-in-2022/

You would have thought it would be a headline survey.

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/scottish-independence-support-slumps-46-29005820

[TrumpIsAPeado]

Another poll about Westminster voting intentions.

SNP 43pc
Labour 29pc
Tories 18pc
LD 7pc

The gap between SNP and Labour in the 2019 Westminster election was huge, it was 26.4%. The gap is now 14%, you can see where the trend is going.

And it's yet another de facto referendum defeat.

Yeah, it's almost as if Labour and the tories are interchangeable.

[James310]

Yeah, it's almost as if Labour and the tories are interchangeable.

So what? How does that increase support for Independence?

[TrumpIsAPeado]

So what? How does that increase support for Independence?

I never said it did. It does however highlight how much of a joke the UK is though.

[James310]

I never said it did. It does however highlight how much of a joke the UK is though.

Based on that poll for Indy people don't see it like that though. By all means keep focussing on Tory and Labour bad etc as it's making zero difference to people.

This poll is even worse for the SNP as it's based on voting when it's a de facto referendum.

https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1616398664896757760?t=n-fQ0YansnZ-_3SyJHPv4A&s=19

SNP: 38%
LAB: 22%
CON: 16%
LDN: 6%
Undecided: 11%
Wouldn’t vote: 4%

It's actually a 5% drop in support for the SNP if it's turned into a de facto referendum. Ouch.

[StevieC]

That doesn’t answer the question though. Doing nothing and it hovers around 50/50 and nothing changes.

I’m not sure what anyone is expecting to be done??
At the moment there is no route for an Independence Referendum to be carried out, so why would you start an Independence Campaign? I wouldn’t say that “nothing” is being done, because the court cases and talk of defacto elections is clearly “something”.

However, if (as you claim) it sits at 50/50 with nothing being done, and any campaign being held off, then that’s a pretty good position to be in.
We all know what the NO campaign will consist of, would be crazy IMO to give the opposition the heads up to prepare a counter campaign in advance.

[hibby rae]

I’m not sure what anyone is expecting to be done??
At the moment there is no route for an Independence Referendum to be carried out, so why would you start an Independence Campaign? I wouldn’t say that “nothing” is being done, because the court cases and talk of defacto elections is clearly “something”.

However, if (as you claim) it sits at 50/50 with nothing being done, and any campaign being held off, then that’s a pretty good position to be in.
We all know what the NO campaign will consist of, would be crazy IMO to give the opposition the heads up to prepare a counter campaign in advance.

I'd agree with that. I'm not really sure where the line is for people who still intend to vote No after all that has happened since the last indyref. Although, and this js just experience bias, I only know of 1 person to maybe switch to a No and quite a few to switch to a Yes. Basically the Don't Knows will probably be the deciding factor in this, if it does happen.

One thing to take heart from though is Yes support went from around a 1/3 to the final total during the last campaign, and it's a demographical fact that younger voters tend to be pro-Yes, so time is on it's side.

[Callum_62]

When will the no side realise what they are doing simply isn't working and change tact?

[emoji28]

https://twitter.com/ScotNational/status/1616481411837329430?t=GP0cCEbQhXXBTKGtdCX8cQ&s=19

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[James310]

When will the no side realise what they are doing simply isn't working and change tact?

[emoji28]

https://twitter.com/ScotNational/status/1616481411837329430?t=GP0cCEbQhXXBTKGtdCX8cQ&s=19

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"..commissioned exclusively for The National"

😂

[ronaldo7]

When will the no side realise what they are doing simply isn't working and change tact?

[emoji28]

https://twitter.com/ScotNational/status/1616481411837329430?t=GP0cCEbQhXXBTKGtdCX8cQ&s=19

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Given the response in Glasgow at the 1975 gig, and Matt Healy's announcement, the youth is in the bag. 😉

[hibby rae]

"..commissioned exclusively for The National"

😂

Presumably you'll equally discount out of hand any poll from any organisation with a pro-union stance?

[J-C]

"..commissioned exclusively for The National"

😂

But you expect people to take you seriously when you post the opposite from a pro union paper 🤣🤣🤣

[James310]

But you expect people to take you seriously when you post the opposite from a pro union paper 🤣🤣🤣

It's really annoying isn't it? When people just dismiss something because of the newspaper it's in, or the author as well.

[Stairway 2 7]

Safe to say polls are pish. Its probably close to 50/50 which is a move to yes since the last referendum

[Ozyhibby]

Safe to say polls are pish. Its probably close to 50/50 which is a move to yes since the last referendum

We are about 50/50. When it comes to polling Ipsos and Yougov tend to be most accurate. When it comes to discounting any, only the ones who ask weird leave/remain questions should be discounted.
So long as the ask the standard question then they have some value.
Haven’t seen the stats from this poll yet. The survation one I’m sure will have been the correct question. Usually get a really high number of don’t knows with them for some reason.


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[Skol]

I’m not sure what anyone is expecting to be done??
At the moment there is no route for an Independence Referendum to be carried out, so why would you start an Independence Campaign? I wouldn’t say that “nothing” is being done, because the court cases and talk of defacto elections is clearly “something”.

However, if (as you claim) it sits at 50/50 with nothing being done, and any campaign being held off, then that’s a pretty good position to be in.
We all know what the NO campaign will consist of, would be crazy IMO to give the opposition the heads up to prepare a counter campaign in advance.

You have said this or something like it before.

There is a route to to a referendum, we saw that in 2014.

In my view the way to bring another around is to show consistent support in excess of 50%. Ideally quite a bit above. If there was regular 55%+ I don’t believe Westminster could continue to say no to a section 30.

It’s in the hands of the independence movement to turn the dial.

[Ozyhibby]

You have said this or something like it before.

There is a route to to a referendum, we saw that in 2014.

In my view the way to bring another around is to show consistent support in excess of 50%. Ideally quite a bit above. If there was regular 55%+ I don’t believe Westminster could continue to say no to a section 30.

It’s in the hands of the independence movement to turn the dial.

That’s not a route, that’s just your opinion.


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[Stairway 2 7]

We are about 50/50. When it comes to polling Ipsos and Yougov tend to be most accurate. When it comes to discounting any, only the ones who ask weird leave/remain questions should be discounted.
So long as the ask the standard question then they have some value.
Haven’t seen the stats from this poll yet. The survation one I’m sure will have been the correct question. Usually get a really high number of don’t knows with them for some reason.


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I'm pretty certain the swing will be slow but constant to independence. The same will happen in England with it moving against the tories.

It's due to the youth not turning right like they have every other generation. What have they got to lose, no house, reliable job, savings ect ect.

[ronaldo7]

You have said this or something like it before.

There is a route to to a referendum, we saw that in 2014.

In my view the way to bring another around is to show consistent support in excess of 50%. Ideally quite a bit above. If there was regular 55%+ I don’t believe Westminster could continue to say no to a section 30.

It’s in the hands of the independence movement to turn the dial.

The route has been closed by the unionists at Westminster that was used in 2011/12.

It was democracy in action then. A party who had a referendum in its manifesto won the elections in Scotland.

The Indy movement was only around 28% in the polls.

Somethings changed, but the Democratic route is currently closed.

[James310]

That’s not a route, that’s just your opinion.


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It's not, it's in the Scotland Act. It's fact, that's the route via aS30.

[Moulin Yarns]

https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/23266628.latest-independence-poll-puts-support-yes-54-per-cent/

Only poll done since Jack issued the section 35

[The_Exile]

Safe to say polls are pish. Its probably close to 50/50 which is a move to yes since the last referendum

I think we're well beyond 50/50, but the only problem being that young people don't vote, and young people want independence. So we're still floating around 50/50. If voting was made mandatory I'd be more inclined to believe it would be more like 65/35.

[Stairway 2 7]

I think we're well beyond 50/50, but the only problem being that young people don't vote, and young people want independence. So we're still floating around 50/50. If voting was made mandatory I'd be more inclined to believe it would be more like 65/35.

You could say that about most elections though, Labour would be in power down south all the time with mandatory voting for example. But we don't have mandatory voting so..

[Moulin Yarns]

It's not, it's in the Scotland Act. It's fact, that's the route via aS30.

I'm glad that you think that Westminster is ever going to grant a S30, how many times has it been refused, and by how many prime ministers, and in such a short time frame!

[Ozyhibby]

It's not, it's in the Scotland Act. It's fact, that's the route via aS30.

Sorry, what’s in the Scotland act?


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[James310]

Sorry, what’s in the Scotland act?


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I am surprised you really don't know what a S30 is?

"A section 30 Order is a type of subordinate or secondary legislation which is made under the Scotland Act 1998. It can be used to increase or restrict – temporarily or permanently – the Scottish Parliament’s legislative authority. It does this by altering the list of “reserved powers” set out in Schedule 5, and/or the protections against modification set out in Schedule 4 of that Act.

Such Orders have been used several times since 1999. The most high-profile example was the Scotland Act 1998 (Modification of Schedule 5) Order 2013, which temporarily devolved authority to legislate for a Scottish independence referendum. This took place on 18 September 2014."

[James310]

I'm glad that you think that Westminster is ever going to grant a S30, how many times has it been refused, and by how many prime ministers, and in such a short time frame!

You must be seeing things, I never said that.

[Ozyhibby]

I am surprised you really don't know what a S30 is?

"A section 30 Order is a type of subordinate or secondary legislation which is made under the Scotland Act 1998. It can be used to increase or restrict – temporarily or permanently – the Scottish Parliament’s legislative authority. It does this by altering the list of “reserved powers” set out in Schedule 5, and/or the protections against modification set out in Schedule 4 of that Act.

Such Orders have been used several times since 1999. The most high-profile example was the Scotland Act 1998 (Modification of Schedule 5) Order 2013, which temporarily devolved authority to legislate for a Scottish independence referendum. This took place on 18 September 2014."

Apologies, I thought you were saying there was a democratic route to a s30 order.


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[James310]

Apologies, I thought you were saying there was a democratic route to a s30 order.


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Like last time?

[Ozyhibby]

Like last time?

That route is now gone.


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[James310]

That route is now gone.


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Why? It's the only route, gold standard according to Nicola Sturgeon. Unless you think UDI is next?

[Moulin Yarns]

Why? It's the only route, gold standard according to Nicola Sturgeon. Unless you think UDI is next?

And I asked you how many times it has been refused, by how many prime ministers and in what time frame.


Seems the first minister can ask for, but never receive the S30. I don't suppose it has anything to do with independence being popular in the polls, unlike in 2012.

[James310]

I knew something was up, the poll in The National was an online respondent survey.

https://findoutnow.co.uk/

That's not a poll in the way we are used to seeing polls.

[James310]

And I asked you how many times it has been refused, by how many prime ministers and in what time frame.


Seems the first minister can ask for, but never receive the S30. I don't suppose it has anything to do with independence being popular in the polls, unlike in 2012.

Think what you like. It's been asked at least 3 times officially I think in the last 5 years, and everytime it's made zero difference to support for Indy.

[Moulin Yarns]

I knew something was up, the poll in The National was an online respondent survey.

https://findoutnow.co.uk/

That's not a poll in the way we are used to seeing polls.


You've obviously never done a Yougov survey!!

[Moulin Yarns]

Think what you like. It's been asked at least 3 times officially I think in the last 5 years, and everytime it's made zero difference to support for Indy.

The question is, why is the prime minister not agreeing to the S30 requests? What are they afraid of?

[James310]

The question is, why is the prime minister not agreeing to the S30 requests? What are they afraid of?

Ask them.

[WeeRussell]

You have said this or something like it before.

There is a route to to a referendum, we saw that in 2014.

In my view the way to bring another around is to show consistent support in excess of 50%. Ideally quite a bit above. If there was regular 55%+ I don’t believe Westminster could continue to say no to a section 30.

It’s in the hands of the independence movement to turn the dial.

You’ll need to check this with King James. He decides when the polls decide it’s okay for Scottish people to have a say in their future democratically, as well as which polls count.

[Ozyhibby]

I knew something was up, the poll in The National was an online respondent survey.

https://findoutnow.co.uk/

That's not a poll in the way we are used to seeing polls.

All polls are nowadays.


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[JeMeSouviens]

All polls are nowadays.


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Ipsos are phone polls.

[Moulin Yarns]

Ask them.

If you are correct that the only route is the S30, but it is continually refused, then it is not a route at all, it's a cul-de-sac!

[J-C]

Ask them.

Great response, hold on I'll just give No.10 a wee phone call.

[James310]

Great response, hold on I'll just give No.10 a wee phone call.

I can't read their minds. How is Nicola Sturgeon feeling this morning? She have a good sleep?

[Zambernardi1875]

I can't read their minds. How is Nicola Sturgeon feeling this morning? She have a good sleep?

Do you not get the daily Nicola newsletter? I’ll sign you up don’t worry

[James310]

Do you not get the daily Nicola newsletter? I’ll sign you up don’t worry

Oh I am sure you get it every day.

[CropleyWasGod]

I can't read their minds. How is Nicola Sturgeon feeling this morning? She have a good sleep?

I've just made her some toast. She slept really well.... dozed off reading the ***** on here 😀

[TrumpIsAPeado]

Based on that poll for Indy people don't see it like that though. By all means keep focussing on Tory and Labour bad etc as it's making zero difference to people.

This poll is even worse for the SNP as it's based on voting when it's a de facto referendum.

https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1616398664896757760?t=n-fQ0YansnZ-_3SyJHPv4A&s=19

SNP: 38%
LAB: 22%
CON: 16%
LDN: 6%
Undecided: 11%
Wouldn’t vote: 4%

It's actually a 5% drop in support for the SNP if it's turned into a de facto referendum. Ouch.

Funny how it's only survation polls and none of the others suggest anything like this. It would be interesting to see what methodology they use, although I doubt we'd ever get to see that. But if you want to cling on to the odd poll out, then you are of course welcome to do so.

[James310]

Funny how it's only survation polls and none of the others suggest anything like this. It would be interesting to see what methodology they use, although I doubt we'd ever get to see that. But if you want to cling on to the odd poll out, then you are of course welcome to do so.

It's pretty simple, they asked.

If the next General Election was a de facto referendum on Scottish independence, how would you vote:

Have any of the other polls asked this question?

[He's here!]

From The New Statesman:

The tragedy of Nicola Sturgeon

As she enters the winter of her first-ministership, the gap between Sturgeon’s ambition and delivery is ever clearer.
By Chris Deerin (https://www.newstatesman.com/author/chris-deerin)

I saw a friend for the first time in a while at an event this week. “So you’ve finally given up on the SNP (https://newstatesman.com/tag/snp),” she said to me. “About time.”
I get that a lot – Unionist pals who, not unfairly, have regarded me as one of their own, accuse me of being too soft on the Nats. This probably draws a wry laugh from the latter. But it’s true that in much of my writing in recent years I’ve tried to understand Scotland’s governing party rather than simply condemn or shout at it. I’ve attempted to give it the benefit of the doubt, and approach it much as I would any other mainstream political organisation.
I’ve felt this is necessary in part because the SNP has been so dominant and so popular for so long – there’s clearly something going on there that appeals to a huge section of the electorate, most of whom have little in common with the woad and saltire whisky-teared heroes of social media (https://www.newstatesman.com/tag/social-media). Just telling people they’re wrong has diminishing returns.
Further, some of what the SNP does in government is unobjectionable to a centrist with social democrat leanings like me. I didn’t mind the baby box (https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2017/08/scotland-goes-too-far-free-stuff-nicola-sturgeons-baby-box-worth-every). I support the thinking and the motive behind the Scottish child payment. I liked the idea of the Scottish National Investment Bank. The SNP was quick to support Ukraine (https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/scotland/2022/02/how-the-snp-became-the-most-anti-putin-party-in-the-uk). And there’s simply too much reflexive anti-Nattery in the media, where nothing they do is considered on its own merits.
I also – and this is probably what draws the most flak – have a healthy respect for Nicola Sturgeon (https://www.newstatesman.com/tag/nicola-sturgeon). She is now in the winter of her first-ministership, which is all too apparent, but the personal commitment she has shown to her job over the past nine years, the steadiness with which she has carried on in what at times have been difficult and draining circumstances, the burden she has uncomplainingly borne, is not to be lightly dismissed. She has shown greater personal integrity than Boris Johnson (https://www.newstatesman.com/tag/boris-johnson), more skilful management of her party than Theresa May (https://www.newstatesman.com/tag/theresa-may), and, well, better everything than Liz Truss (https://www.newstatesman.com/tag/liz-truss).
The resignation this week (https://www.newstatesman.com/quickfire/2023/01/jacinda-ardern-resigns) of New Zealand’s Jacinda Ardern, saying she has “nothing left in the tank”, is evidence of the toll national leadership can take – especially in recent years. Julia Gillard, the former Australian PM, tweeted that Ardern had sought to “foreground kindness and empathy”, and I think the fair-minded should be able to say something similar of Sturgeon. Leaders like her and Ardern have tried to do things differently in the traditionally masculine world of politics.
I’ve already mentioned the baby box and the child payment. Similarly, the named person proposal came from a place of wanting to provide greater protection to vulnerable children. The Promise, one of the central policies of Sturgeon’s time in office, is a noble effort to transform the lives of children in care. The First Minister’s speech to SNP conference in 2016 promising to put “love” at the heart of the reforms, was a genuinely – and rare, in politics – affecting moment.
Her controversial gender reforms (https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-politics/2023/01/gender-reform-crucial-scottish-independence) are again an attempt to improve the lot of a precarious, marginalised section of the population. Again and again, when you look at the policies pursued by Sturgeon, at the legislation that has mattered most to her, care for the vulnerable has been her motivation. You might disagree with some or all of it, but you can see where she is coming from.
Too often, though, she has fallen short in delivery – probably because she has allowed her heart to take precedence over her head. The named person plan promised to be a gross invasion into the private life of every Scottish family, and had to be abandoned after falling foul of the courts and human rights law. The Promise is way off schedule and those charged with delivering it talk of civil service inertia and a lack of robust ministerial support.
The gender proposals are almost an archetype of how not to do politics – Sturgeon adopted a radical position from the outset, failed to build public support for the changes, all but ignored the concerns about women’s rights, and stuck her fingers in her ears when warned about a potential clash with the reserved Equalities Act. The result is that her reforms have been blocked and the courts will rule on whether she has a right to introduce them. The weight of legal opinion seems to believe judges will side with the UK government (https://newstatesman.com/tag/uk-government). So where does that leave the trans community? Have they ultimately been helped or hindered by Sturgeon’s blunt strategy?
I’ve found it harder, as the gender reform process has unfolded and as the First Minister has repeatedly hyped up the pro-independence movement, to give her and her party the benefit of the doubt. The first just seems to me unforgivably bad politics and leadership, the second an obsession that overrides all common sense and judgement. The strategic patience with which the SNP has traditionally approached the pursuit of independence has been jettisoned and replaced by continued, rather abject and desperate lunges.
And her social justice priorities have led her to neglect the most fundamental engine of social mobility – the education system. During 16 years of SNP government, the effort put into improving the quality of Scotland’s schools has been minimal, and a generation of children have been failed as a result.
It’s possible, therefore, to understand where Sturgeon’s coming from, even to sympathise with some of it, and to admire her steadfastness, but still think that her legacy will be rather thin, and that she has largely failed as a reforming first minister. The lessons are there throughout history – in politics, too much heart and not enough head almost always ends like this. It’s too late now.

[TrumpIsAPeado]

It's pretty simple, they asked.

But of course, polls are never that simple. It's not just one straight forward question. It's a series of questions with different polling companies using different wording for those questions in order to achieve the desired outcome. That's why there's such a disparity between results.

[Skol]

If you are correct that the only route is the S30, but it is continually refused, then it is not a route at all, it's a cul-de-sac!

The S30 was originally granted when the SNP returned a majority at holyrood. Such an event has happened again, although sturgeon did try to emulate that by bringing the greens into government. That though followed rejection of an offer from salmond to seek a supermajority.

My opinion yes, but if the snp were to get another majority at holyrood or if they were able to demonstrate a significant majority in the polls then Westminster would not be able to say no.

As things stand they can say there is no need for another referendum

I stil, think it’s for the snp to turn the dial, but they don’t seem to want to do that. Equally I would like Westminster to stop being so bad and to actually make a better job of the status quo working. They seem equally to be unable to do so and continually shoot themselves in the foot.

Despite being one legged and with a series of own goals though, support for independence has not been pushed significantly above the 50%

[Callum_62]

The S30 was originally granted when the SNP returned a majority at holyrood. Such an event has happened again, although sturgeon did try to emulate that by bringing the greens into government. That though followed rejection of an offer from salmond to seek a supermajority.

My opinion yes, but if the snp were to get another majority at holyrood or if they were able to demonstrate a significant majority in the polls then Westminster would not be able to say no.

As things stand they can say there is no need for another referendum

I stil, think it’s for the snp to turn the dial, but they don’t seem to want to do that. Equally I would like Westminster to stop being so bad and to actually make a better job of the status quo working. They seem equally to be unable to do so and continually shoot themselves in the foot.

Despite being one legged and with a series of own goals though, support for independence has not been pushed significantly above the 50%Another majority in a system literally designed to avoid a one party majority

Sounds super fair that does

Incredibly the SNP did comes within 1 seat I believe of another majority fairly recently



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[TrumpIsAPeado]

Another majority in a system literally designed to avoid a one party majority

Sounds super fair that does

Incredibly the SNP did comes within 1 seat I believe of another majority fairly recently

Indeed. If Holyrood was set up in the same way as Westminster. The SNP would have had majorities the entire time since 2011.

[Skol]

Usual deflection type posts and pointing the finger at Westminster.

[TrumpIsAPeado]

Usual deflection type posts and pointing the finger at Westminster.

Westminster set Holyrood up to prevent majorities. Unionists like to point out that the SNP don't have a majority. Why would it be deflection to point out that Holyrood is set up by Westminster to make majorities almost impossible to achieve?

[Santa Cruz]

Usual deflection type posts and pointing the finger at Westminster.

The Labour Party are about to start consulting on electoral reform. Think I read they favour the PR system.

[Skol]

The Labour Party are about to start consulting on electoral reform. Think I read they favour the PR system.

I think the U.K. need PR. Any idea which particular form. ?

[Skol]

Westminster set Holyrood up to prevent majorities. Unionists like to point out that the SNP don't have a majority. Why would it be deflection to point out that Holyrood is set up by Westminster to make majorities almost impossible to achieve?

Because it is not relevant. 2014 came as a result of a majority and do it is possible.

[Santa Cruz]

I think the U.K. need PR. Any idea which particular form. ?

I don't. I'm not a member and have always opted out of contributions via trade unions. These are the first groups they will consult afaik.

[Ozyhibby]

The Labour Party are about to start consulting on electoral reform. Think I read they favour the PR system.

The Labour Party definitely do not favour PR.


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[Skol]

I don't. I'm not a member and have always opted out of contributions via trade unions. These are the first groups they will consult afaik.

It is hard to balance the true PR with the need for local representation. There must be a way that can be achieved though.

Oh and on the other point I do also share some of the concerns and believe the U.K. government should outline and write in to the devolution agreement the parameters of there being an independence vote.

[TrumpIsAPeado]

The Labour Party definitely do not favour PR.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

They favour it about as much as they favour scrapping the House of Lords. Not at all when they're actually the party in power.

[Santa Cruz]

It is hard to balance the true PR with the need for local representation. There must be a way that can be achieved though.

Oh and on the other point I do also share some of the concerns and believe the U.K. government should outline and write in to the devolution agreement the parameters of there being an independence vote.

This isn't where I read about it, but found this. Might help explain.

https://www.policyforum.labour.org.uk/commissions/labour-campaign-for-electoral-reform

[Glory Lurker]

It is hard to balance the true PR with the need for local representation. There must be a way that can be achieved though.

Oh and on the other point I do also share some of the concerns and believe the U.K. government should outline and write in to the devolution agreement the parameters of there being an independence vote.

That's a written constitution. I'm not against it but imo it would need to be approved in separate ballots of Scotland and rUK to be acceptable.

[cabbageandribs1875]

good :agree:

https://scontent.fman1-2.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/323437190_485652363644015_762490372381239495_n.jpg ?_nc_cat=102&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_ohc=IKzyJAzh4P4AX9RXOk1&_nc_ht=scontent.fman1-2.fna&oh=00_AfCE_K_VcwFQv9ZP0urc33w85ZRjv_41N520Bv06Fi4a SQ&oe=63D73252

[cabbageandribs1875]

more good stuff :agree:


https://scontent.fman1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/324250288_561770252494198_2601100054499759032_n.jp g?_nc_cat=111&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_ohc=Jn_nnmFsYl0AX9iO1Wy&_nc_ht=scontent.fman1-1.fna&oh=00_AfDXrvlg38uMJFYl--2gguH_QlDCzA0NAOfOckdDSKVs1Q&oe=63D61BAA


no surprise whatsoever who the nasties were :agree: pathetic shower

https://scontent.fman1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/325793660_5790199121015612_5268086977682850693_n.j pg?_nc_cat=103&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=dbeb18&_nc_ohc=n7VFiqRI7ckAX9dTbgD&_nc_ht=scontent.fman1-1.fna&oh=00_AfAk5Hb8YoIj0yp3Iut4qqZp9kfvhZNEO588HQc9hcDv rg&oe=63D60DA9

[Stairway 2 7]

more good stuff :agree:


https://scontent.fman1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/324250288_561770252494198_2601100054499759032_n.jp g?_nc_cat=111&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_ohc=Jn_nnmFsYl0AX9iO1Wy&_nc_ht=scontent.fman1-1.fna&oh=00_AfDXrvlg38uMJFYl--2gguH_QlDCzA0NAOfOckdDSKVs1Q&oe=63D61BAA


no surprise whatsoever who the nasties were :agree: pathetic shower

https://scontent.fman1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/325793660_5790199121015612_5268086977682850693_n.j pg?_nc_cat=103&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=dbeb18&_nc_ohc=n7VFiqRI7ckAX9dTbgD&_nc_ht=scontent.fman1-1.fna&oh=00_AfAk5Hb8YoIj0yp3Iut4qqZp9kfvhZNEO588HQc9hcDv rg&oe=63D60DA9

**** bags, how can 1 not have a conscience

[Ozyhibby]

more good stuff :agree:


https://scontent.fman1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/324250288_561770252494198_2601100054499759032_n.jp g?_nc_cat=111&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_ohc=Jn_nnmFsYl0AX9iO1Wy&_nc_ht=scontent.fman1-1.fna&oh=00_AfDXrvlg38uMJFYl--2gguH_QlDCzA0NAOfOckdDSKVs1Q&oe=63D61BAA


no surprise whatsoever who the nasties were :agree: pathetic shower

https://scontent.fman1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/325793660_5790199121015612_5268086977682850693_n.j pg?_nc_cat=103&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=dbeb18&_nc_ohc=n7VFiqRI7ckAX9dTbgD&_nc_ht=scontent.fman1-1.fna&oh=00_AfAk5Hb8YoIj0yp3Iut4qqZp9kfvhZNEO588HQc9hcDv rg&oe=63D60DA9

Let’s hope Alistair Jack isn’t against or we’ll be looking at another s35 order.


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[TrumpIsAPeado]

Let’s hope Alistair Jack isn’t against or we’ll be looking at another s35 order.

Yep, he only needs to "believe" that it will impact reserved matters in some way and that ultimately serves as justification for using it. The order is beyond farcical, but at least highlights just how fragile devolution really is in the UK.

[archie]

Yep, he only needs to "believe" that it will impact reserved matters in some way and that ultimately serves as justification for using it. The order is beyond farcical, but at least highlights just how fragile devolution really is in the UK.

The test is whether the belief is reasonable. Not quite as you represent.

[Keith_M]

**** bags, how can 1 not have a conscience


This just shows the Tories up for what they really are.

[CropleyWasGod]

Let’s hope Alistair Jack isn’t against or we’ll be looking at another s35 order.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

To be fair, it may have an impact on the UK. The foxes in England will all move up here, for safety, which will leave none for hunting down there.

That's an appalling use of power, no?

[Ozyhibby]

https://twitter.com/ipsonews/status/1618624628691472391?s=46&t=AYhySQjgy5wjfImob7PeUQ

Unionists misrepresenting polling again. Shocked.


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[James310]

https://twitter.com/ipsonews/status/1618624628691472391?s=46&t=AYhySQjgy5wjfImob7PeUQ

Unionists misrepresenting polling again. Shocked.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Imagine that!

"The complainant said the article was inaccurate and misleading in breach of Clause 1 (Accuracy). He said that, in claiming that there had been a “seven per cent” reduction in support for Scottish independence, the publication had compared figures from two separate polls by two separate organisations: Panelbase and Deltapoll, respectively, and that these polls were not comparable."

Both were polls so should be comparable surely? 😂😂

[grunt]

Both were polls so should be comparable surely? 😂😂You know better than the Independent Press Standards Organisation do you?

[Kato]

https://twitter.com/ipsonews/status/1618624628691472391?s=46&t=AYhySQjgy5wjfImob7PeUQ

Unionists misrepresenting polling again. Shocked.


Sent from my iPhone using TapatalkWhy would a Union supporting, Brexity, Tory backing, flag-****ging, xenophobic, phone hacking, billionaire owned newspaper lie?

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[Ozyhibby]

Imagine that!

"The complainant said the article was inaccurate and misleading in breach of Clause 1 (Accuracy). He said that, in claiming that there had been a “seven per cent” reduction in support for Scottish independence, the publication had compared figures from two separate polls by two separate organisations: Panelbase and Deltapoll, respectively, and that these polls were not comparable."

Both were polls so should be comparable surely? [emoji23][emoji23]

The paper also included undecideds in one poll but excluded undecideds in another poll in order to exaggerate the results.
I know that’s something you do on here all the time so I imagine you think that’s just fine.


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[James310]

You know better than the Independent Press Standards Organisation do you?

Actually I agree with them. If comparing something like polls or pensions it should be on a like for like basis. 😉

[Moulin Yarns]

You know better than the Independent Press Standards Organisation do you?

No but can you compare grapes and bananas!

[James310]

No but he is able to compare grapes and bananas!

Embarrassing for you, they back up the point I was making 100%. You keep cracking your juvenile little jokes though.

[Ozyhibby]

Embarrassing for you, they back up the point I was making 100%. You keep cracking your juvenile little jokes though.

No they don’t.


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[Moulin Yarns]

It appears that it's impossible to make a joke on the forums anymore for fear of offending anyone.

Sad state of affairs, especially when some posters refuse to hold reasonable debate and just repeat the same point, often erroneously, ad infinitum.

[James310]

It appears that it's impossible to make a joke on the forums anymore for fear of offending anyone.

Sad state of affairs, especially when some posters refuse to hold reasonable debate and just repeat the same point, often erroneously, ad infinitum.

Jokes are supposed to be funny.

Have a great evening.

[grunt]

Jokes are supposed to be funny.
Not necessarily.

[WeeRussell]

It appears that it's impossible to make a joke on the forums anymore for fear of offending anyone.

Sad state of affairs, especially when some posters refuse to hold reasonable debate and just repeat the same point, often erroneously, ad infinitum.

I’m almost certain someone was telling Grunt to chill out and that we’re all adults on another thread this week, after making a ‘tongue-in-cheek’ comment?

That one must have been hilarious I guess.

[OldEast]

Embarrassing for you, they back up the point I was making 100%. You keep cracking your juvenile little jokes though.

Oh stop it.

[Moulin Yarns]

I'm posting here because she is a supporter of independence and that's why she is targeted


https://twitter.com/ionafyfe/status/...QWJxNMOyQ&s=19



Waking up to horrid comments (an entire thread) dedicated to harassing me on FollowFollow, the Rangers forum that The Rangers Club endorse. All because I suggested that people could buy my CD’s through my Ko-Fi to help offset $170 unexpected medical bills.

[Berwickhibby]

No but can you compare grapes and bananas!

On behalf of apples and oranges, I am offended with your fruitest comment :greengrin:greengrin:greengrin

[Kato]

I'm posting here because she is a supporter of independence and that's why she is targeted


https://twitter.com/ionafyfe/status/...QWJxNMOyQ&s=19



Waking up to horrid comments (an entire thread) dedicated to harassing me on FollowFollow, the Rangers forum that The Rangers Club endorse. All because I suggested that people could buy my CD’s through my Ko-Fi to help offset $170 unexpected medical bills.A rump of people who follow the club in question are a radicalised, british nationalist cult.

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[ronaldo7]

I'm posting here because she is a supporter of independence and that's why she is targeted


https://twitter.com/ionafyfe/status/...QWJxNMOyQ&s=19



Waking up to horrid comments (an entire thread) dedicated to harassing me on FollowFollow, the Rangers forum that The Rangers Club endorse. All because I suggested that people could buy my CD’s through my Ko-Fi to help offset $170 unexpected medical bills.

She's taken all sorts of abuse on her social media platforms, but the group of unionists trying to bring her down will be disappointed.

She's a strong one.

[cabbageandribs1875]

https://scontent.fman1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/324187778_5623386694427279_398846404682939947_n.jp g?_nc_cat=104&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_ohc=sdfGXL-aMMEAX9KL6Ql&_nc_ht=scontent.fman1-1.fna&oh=00_AfDXGnktwCmoGLu5iKTPmsnbzjPlI2TYsgeuA8TNz2NP 5w&oe=63E03218

[Keith_M]

Jeezo, they really don't tire of this crap, do they


Will Vladimir Putin Kill Of Scottish Independence (https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/viewpoint/23298458.will-vladimir-putin-kill-off-scottish-independence/)



:faf:

[Ozyhibby]

Jeezo, they really don't tire of this crap, do they


Will Vladimir Putin Kill Of Scottish Independence (https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/viewpoint/23298458.will-vladimir-putin-kill-off-scottish-independence/)



:faf:

Part of the ‘too wee’ narrative.


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[Berwickhibby]

Why would a Union supporting, Brexity, Tory backing, flag-****ging, xenophobic, phone hacking, billionaire owned newspaper lie?

Sent from my SM-A528B using Tapatalk

Why would anyone buy or read a ****ty publication like the Sun 🤷*♂️

[He's here!]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/snp-scottish-nicola-sturgeon-scottish-government-holyrood-b2276023.html

Not unreasonable to suggest Sturgeon's gender reform shambles has accounted for the fall in support for the SNP/independence?

[McSwanky]

Jokes are supposed to be funny..

I don't find Boris Johnson very funny...

Sent from my YAL-L21 using Tapatalk

[James310]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/snp-scottish-nicola-sturgeon-scottish-government-holyrood-b2276023.html

Not unreasonable to suggest Sturgeon's gender reform shambles has accounted for the fall in support for the SNP/independence?

Weird, I thought the S35 would increase support for Indy? It was the end of devolution apparently. Seems not.

[NORTHERNHIBBY]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/snp-scottish-nicola-sturgeon-scottish-government-holyrood-b2276023.html

Not unreasonable to suggest Sturgeon's gender reform shambles has accounted for the fall in support for the SNP/independence?

I'd like to think, perhaps naively, that as Independence is such a fundamental principle, that people's opinions wouldn't be swayed by whatever is happening on the day that they are asked.

[Skol]

I'd like to think, perhaps naively, that as Independence is such a fundamental principle, that people's opinions wouldn't be swayed by whatever is happening on the day that they are asked.

That is true for the core support, but maybe not for those that are in the middle ground.

[He's here!]

I'd like to think, perhaps naively, that as Independence is such a fundamental principle, that people's opinions wouldn't be swayed by whatever is happening on the day that they are asked.

The plunge in Sturgeon's approval rating in that poll is probably indicative that the issues of the day have had an impact.

[Ozyhibby]

The plunge in Sturgeon's approval rating in that poll is probably indicative that the issues of the day have had an impact.

Who is the most popular leader now?


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[He's here!]

Who is the most popular leader now?


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A weak attempt at deflection.

[grunt]

The plunge in Sturgeon's approval rating in that poll is probably indicative that the issues of the day have had an impact.
Sadly it just shows how effective the media attacks on her have been. We live in a country where a handful of rich media owners shape peoples thinking. This country is ****ed.

[James310]

Who is the most popular leader now?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

In Scotland Anas Sarwar, especially now Sturgeon is in negative territory.

[Ozyhibby]

In Scotland Anas Sarwar, especially now Sturgeon is in negative territory.

Can you show me polling to support that?


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[James310]

Can you show me polling to support that?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Sure, this is from last year but with Nicola Sturgeon now in negative territory it's not hard to work out who is the most popular. She was +12 but that's negative now.

https://www.holyrood.com/news/view,anas-sarwar-is-most-popular-leader-in-scotland-but-snp-remain-dominant


Scottish Labour’s Anas Sarwar is Scotland’s most popular party leader with a net satisfaction rating of +18 while Prime Minister Boris Johnson has sunk to an all-time low at -71.

Despite a small drop in satisfaction with her performance, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon also remains relatively popular with a +12 net satisfaction rating.

[James310]

You seem to be unable to read. Leave me alone.

It's always someone else's fault, none so blind than those who will not see.

[marinello59]

Sadly it just shows how effective the media attacks on her have been. We live in a country where a handful of rich media owners shape peoples thinking. This country is ****ed.

Blame the media.
Copyright. D Trump.