Scottish Independence

[Moulin Yarns]

I would be delighted if the Common Weal was fronting any Yes campaign.
I
Ex head of Common Weal thinks Alex Salmond was set up by Nicola Sturgeon and now works for Alba.

They would be far too left for the middle ground and the people that need to be persuaded. If anything they would drive up the No vote.

👍 Doubt we will ever agree, but I think we might be on the same page?

[Callum_62]

And Murray Ross is just the man to do it. https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=239708454569424That really is incredible

Surely even unionists in the main should agree every nation in a union shoukd have the ability to decide there own path?

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[ronaldo7]

When the unionists here or in the media spout their, now is not the time mantra, just remember Cannon Kenyan wright's words from 1989, the head of the Scottish constitutional convention.

"What if that other voice we all know so well responds, by saying, we say no and we are the state?

Well we say yes, and we are the people.

If we don't have a democratic route to even have a vote on independence, then we're not living in a democracy.

[Ozyhibby]

https://twitter.com/conor_matchett/status/1541325020315648005?s=21&t=CUV-VKXQpQGl9oDDWUKqIw

The battle for democracy begins. Who wants to line up against democracy.
I always felt this is the way forward.


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[James310]

https://twitter.com/NowScotlandNow/status/1541025085720612865?t=6-dUjo5SyWSkUh2IiYYP0Q&s=19

Is this real?

[Ozyhibby]

https://twitter.com/NowScotlandNow/status/1541025085720612865?t=6-dUjo5SyWSkUh2IiYYP0Q&s=19

Is this real?

No clue, never heard of them. Still, deny people democracy and just see how crazy **** can get.


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[Stairway 2 7]

https://twitter.com/NowScotlandNow/status/1541025085720612865?t=6-dUjo5SyWSkUh2IiYYP0Q&s=19

Is this real?

Surely that's been produced by the no campaign

[ronaldo7]

No clue, never heard of them. Still, deny people democracy and just see how crazy **** can get.


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Video courtesy of Shauny boy. I thought he was all the rage recently.

[James310]

Surely that's been produced by the no campaign

https://www.nowscotland.scot/about_us


Doesn't look like it

[James310]

Video courtesy of Shauny boy. I thought he was all the rage recently.

Not sure it is, not his usual style.

https://twitter.com/NowScotlandNow/status/1541414222969675778?t=bWwJHAW6xR0Ksa48TfUlwg&s=19


Our summer series of educational events on civil disobedience and other effective means of activism, designed for and by our membership, will be coming soon.

Keep an eye on your member's emails for the schedule and other details, and let's look forward to an exciting summer ��������������

[Stairway 2 7]

We don't need to get too radge it's not Tibet or kurdistan, there was a vote 8 years ago. This will only harm I'd think, it's the middle ground that needs won

[ronaldo7]

https://twitter.com/NowScotlandNow/status/1541025085720612865?t=6-dUjo5SyWSkUh2IiYYP0Q&s=19

Is this real?


Not sure it is, not his usual style.

https://twitter.com/NowScotlandNow/status/1541414222969675778?t=bWwJHAW6xR0Ksa48TfUlwg&s=19


Our summer series of educational events on civil disobedience and other effective means of activism, designed for and by our membership, will be coming soon.

Keep an eye on your member's emails for the schedule and other details, and let's look forward to an exciting summer ��������������

Take a look at the link you posted. Video courtesy of @shiny02 You were singing his praises only 10 days ago, about Scotland needing more of it.

[ronaldo7]

He is quite funny and not afraid to take the p**s out of both sides. We need more of this in Scotland, politicians should be ridiculed if they say and do ridiculous things. There is a lack of satire in Scottish politics.

https://twitter.com/shiny02/status/1519634762218024962?t=tumGV03IejcMX_VtxlOwnw&s=19

This guy?

[James310]

Take a look at the link you posted. Video courtesy of @shiny02 You were singing his praises only 10 days ago, about Scotland needing more of it.

See it now, so it's a p**s take?

I am confused as to why Now Scotland would post it.

[ronaldo7]

See it now, so it's a p**s take?

I am confused as to why Now Scotland would post it.

I've not got a clue. We live in seriously difficult times where democracy is denied, and folk will do daft things eh.:wink:

[Stairway 2 7]

NowScotlandNow
·
19h
Not seen any bigotry. That word is thrown around rather a lot recently and it's starting to lose any real meaning. A tongue in cheek Scottish humour inspired video isn't the big bad you seem to think it is. If you'd like to engage with us properly we'll welcome it.

[ronaldo7]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-61957466

A law on how trade unions operate in Welsh public services will be scrapped in Westminster under plans published on Monday.

It could mean agency staff are able to replace public sector workers who go on strike.

UK government published the plans after last week's rail strike a move one union called "cynical".

The Welsh government said it would "resist" attempts to undermine legislation passed by the Senedd.

The UK government said it would lift the ban on agency workers and overturn a law passed by the Senedd, five years ago, to make sure the ban disappears in Wales too.

Devolution trashed in Wales. How will Labour react to this one?

[Glory Lurker]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-61957466

A law on how trade unions operate in Welsh public services will be scrapped in Westminster under plans published on Monday.

It could mean agency staff are able to replace public sector workers who go on strike.

UK government published the plans after last week's rail strike a move one union called "cynical".

The Welsh government said it would "resist" attempts to undermine legislation passed by the Senedd.

The UK government said it would lift the ban on agency workers and overturn a law passed by the Senedd, five years ago, to make sure the ban disappears in Wales too.

Devolution trashed in Wales. How will Labour react to this one?

I doubt employment is devolved?

[ronaldo7]

I doubt employment is devolved?

It's about trade union rights. I'm sure the UK Gov will try and fight it in the courts. The more fronts they're fighting on the better. 😂

[lucky]

The right to self determination is a human right. If the Scottish Parliament passes legislation that seeks a a section 30 order it must be given. If the argument of Scotland staying in the U.K. is strong enough the people will reject it. If the people of Scotland are denied a legal vote it will be the end of the democracy within our island. A consultative referendum is a waste of money and time and would be seen as game playing by hardcore nationalist and unionist.

[Ozyhibby]

The right to self determination is a human right. If the Scottish Parliament passes legislation that seeks a a section 30 order it must be given. If the argument of Scotland staying in the U.K. is strong enough the people will reject it. If the people of Scotland are denied a legal vote it will be the end of the democracy within our island. A consultative referendum is a waste of money and time and would be seen as game playing by hardcore nationalist and unionist.

I agree. Hopefully that is not the plan. This needs to be a fight for democracy. Let Labour and the Tories argue against democracy. There will only be one winner there.


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[James310]

The counter argument back is Scotland had it's biggest ever democratic exercise only 8 years ago and we rejected independence. Sure times change but there is no evidence the majority of people now support Independence.

I think Nicola Sturgeon will announce something today along the lines of an advisory referendum, one that has no legal status as it's the last throw of the dice for her. But like some Indy supporters on here I also think it's a waste of time and money and if anything will be counter productive to Independence as the result will be ridiculed.

If she doesn't and she is relying on "democracy" winning meaning support for Indy increases and we see a significant shift in support for Independence then absolutely let's have another referendum. I would add Nicola Sturgeon has been saying the same thing for a few years now and it's made no difference, already two S30 requests have been made and rejected and the people of Scotland did not care less.

Let's see what today brings.

People care about is their job safe, are my kids safe and getting well educated, if I get sick will the NHS look after me. They don't wake up being angry about democracy.

[lapsedhibee]

By 2023 it will be only 9 years ago, and the year after that it will be only 10 years ago. Maybe we should be content with being consulted once every 114 years? Meanwhile indy-supporting parties, including one big party whose raison d'etre is independence, get endorsed every 5 years. This 'some sorts of democracy should only be exercised once in a very long while' chat is very weak.

[James310]

By 2023 it will be only 9 years ago, and the year after that it will be only 10 years ago. Maybe we should be content with being consulted once every 114 years? Meanwhile indy-supporting parties, including one big party whose raison d'etre is independence, get endorsed every 5 years. This 'some sorts of democracy should only be exercised once in a very long while' chat is very weak.

I will follow Nicola Sturgeons lead on this.

In a speech in October 2015, Nicola Sturgeon said we should pursue a second independence referendum only if there is "strong and consistent evidence that people have changed their minds and that independence has become the choice of a clear majority in this country".

She probably regrets saying that, but I would agree with her.

[Ozyhibby]

The counter argument back is Scotland had it's biggest ever democratic exercise only 8 years ago and we rejected independence. Sure times change but there is no evidence the majority of people now support Independence.

I think Nicola Sturgeon will announce something today along the lines of an advisory referendum, one that has no legal status as it's the last throw of the dice for her. But like some Indy supporters on here I also think it's a waste of time and money and if anything will be counter productive to Independence as the result will be ridiculed.

If she doesn't and she is relying on "democracy" winning meaning support for Indy increases and we see a significant shift in support for Independence then absolutely let's have another referendum. I would add Nicola Sturgeon has been saying the same thing for a few years now and it's made no difference, already two S30 requests have been made and rejected and the people of Scotland did not care less.

Let's see what today brings.

People care about is their job safe, are my kids safe and getting well educated, if I get sick will the NHS look after me. They don't wake up being angry about democracy.

That last paragraph sums you up.


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[lapsedhibee]

I will follow Nicola Sturgeons lead on this.

In a speech in October 2015, Nicola Sturgeon said we should pursue a second independence referendum only if there is "strong and consistent evidence that people have changed their minds and that independence has become the choice of a clear majority in this country".

She probably regrets saying that, but I would agree with her.

There's certainly evidence that people have changed their minds. Everyone I know knows a No voter who's changed to Yes. A few 51% Yes polls in a row should satisfy the other part of that statement 7 years ago. I don't see anything about a supermajority there.

[James310]

That last paragraph sums you up.


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Lol, what a response.

Unfortunately for you the people of Scotland agree with me, a referendum was way down the list of priorities for the Scottish Government. Covid recovery, the economy, education and health scored considerably higher than another referendum in a list of priorities for people.

If you think people wake up angry about democracy and that's a winning strategy to keep on about then crack on.

[Ozyhibby]

Lol, what a response.

Unfortunately for you the people of Scotland agree with me, a referendum was way down the list of priorities for the Scottish Government. Covid recovery, the economy, education and health scored considerably higher than another referendum in a list of priorities for people.

If you think people wake up angry about democracy and that's a winning strategy to keep on about then crack on.

Let’s bin democracy. So long as there is order and people feel safe than it doesn’t matter. Cool. [emoji106]


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[The Modfather]

I will follow Nicola Sturgeons lead on this.

In a speech in October 2015, Nicola Sturgeon said we should pursue a second independence referendum only if there is "strong and consistent evidence that people have changed their minds and that independence has become the choice of a clear majority in this country".

She probably regrets saying that, but I would agree with her.

Surely it’s all quite simple. If a pro referendum party/majority are elected then the electorate have voted for a 2nd referendum and should get one. If after independence the electorate vote for a 3rd referendum on re-joining the union we should get another referendum.

[Ozyhibby]

Surely it’s all quite simple. If a pro referendum party/majority are elected then the electorate have voted for a 2nd referendum and should get one. If after independence the electorate vote for a 3rd referendum on re-joining the union we should get another referendum.

But that’s democracy and that’s not important anymore.[emoji6]


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[Skol]

I await with interest today’s announcement

I am probably out of step in that if sturgeon asks for an s30 I think it should be granted.

However I don’t think she will go that far leaving us in the perpetual state of uncertainty and division. We either need to have this democratic vote or park the debate

My personal view is that now is not the time and I have yet to see a compelling case for change. However what is clear is tgat we need to make a decision one way or the other then accept that and move on.

[James310]

Let’s bin democracy. So long as there is order and people feel safe than it doesn’t matter. Cool. [emoji106]


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As I say if you think this is a winning strategy and people are going to get really angry about this and it will drive support for Independence then absolutely fine. I am just suggesting it's maybe not the winning hand you might think it is, and I base that on a similar message being said for years and it making no difference. Maybe this time it will.

[Ozyhibby]

As I say if you think this is a winning strategy and people are going to get really angry about this and it will drive support for Independence then absolutely fine. I am just suggesting it's maybe not the winning hand you might think it is, and I base that on a similar message being said for years and it making no difference. Maybe this time it will.

Like all things, it’s just another reason. Not the only reason, not the biggest reason, just another reason on top of many.
I think people in this country value democracy. I don’t think unionists undermining it helps their cause one little bit. I do think that it helps Yes voters gain votes. It’s all about incremental gains.
And it puts unionists in the position of having to defend the end of democracy in the media day after day after day. Some are going to find that pretty difficult.


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[James310]

Like all things, it’s just another reason. Not the only reason, not the biggest reason, just another reason on top of many.
I think people in this country value democracy. I don’t think unionists undermining it helps their cause one little bit. I do think that it helps Yes voters gain votes. It’s all about incremental gains.
And it puts unionists in the position of having to defend the end of democracy in the media day after day after day. Some are going to find that pretty difficult.


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Didn't seem to be that difficult in the past when two S30 were asked for and refused. Made zero difference.

This time you might be right and it will make a difference.

[Ozyhibby]

Didn't seem to be that difficult in the past when two S30 were asked for and refused. Made zero difference.

This time you might be right and it will make a difference.

A request for a s30 hasn’t been made before?


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[JeMeSouviens]

I await with interest today’s announcement

I am probably out of step in that if sturgeon asks for an s30 I think it should be granted.

However I don’t think she will go that far leaving us in the perpetual state of uncertainty and division. We either need to have this democratic vote or park the debate

My personal view is that now is not the time and I have yet to see a compelling case for change. However what is clear is tgat we need to make a decision one way or the other then accept that and move on.

I can't see why she wouldn't? But I think it'll be refused anyway and then you'll be right regarding the perpetual state.

If an advisory ref is held it can be another staging post for Yes but it's never going to be enough in itself. I think the smart thing for the Unionists to do would be to allow* it but boycott it and hope turnout is sufficiently low that apathy sets in on the Yes side. At least they can guarantee that the media will be 99% behind them in ignoring it.

The Yes side has to go all in for bottom up engagement and campaigning. A Yes vote encompassing 50% of the electorate is all but impossible but getting near or surpassing the 46% of the 2014 electorate that voted No would definitely keep the pressure on. The engagement/campaigning may produce a long term pay off in bedding in more young Yessers for the future.

btw, if the current Tory government don't make you see any case for change then I think you might as well mark yourself down as hardline No until death and save yourself any further time thinking about it. :wink:


* by which I mean don't challenge its legitimacy in court.

[James310]

A request for a s30 hasn’t been made before?


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We have been over this a couple of times already.

Yes it has.

https://www.snp.org/nicola-sturgeon-s-section-30-letter-to-theresa-may/


I can't be bothered looking out the other one but I linked to it last time.

[Ozyhibby]

I can't see why she wouldn't? But I think it'll be refused anyway and then you'll be right regarding the perpetual state.

If an advisory ref is held it can be another staging post for Yes but it's never going to be enough in itself. I think the smart thing for the Unionists to do would be to allow* it but boycott it and hope turnout is sufficiently low that apathy sets in on the Yes side. At least they can guarantee that the media will be 99% behind them in ignoring it.

The Yes side has to go all in for bottom up engagement and campaigning. A Yes vote encompassing 50% of the electorate is all but impossible but getting near or surpassing the 46% of the 2014 electorate that voted No would definitely keep the pressure on. The engagement/campaigning may produce a long term pay off in bedding in more young Yessers for the future.

btw, if the current Tory government don't make you see any case for change then I think you might as well mark yourself down as hardline No until death and save yourself any further time thinking about it. :wink:


* by which I mean don't challenge its legitimacy in court.

I think he’s there already.[emoji23]


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[Skol]

I think he’s there already.[emoji23]


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You are both wrong but never mind. You don’t want to see that ad it suits your argument.

[Ozyhibby]

John Curtice thinks there is a mandate.

https://twitter.com/glennbbc/status/1541718218888413184?s=21&t=My8aNu3SWCX5lP7tDDMejg


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-61953614


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[He's here!]

According to today's BBC article on this:

"It has led to speculation that she could be a preparing a "consultative" referendum on independence.

This could see proposals for people to be asked a different question to the 2014 referendum's "yes/no" on whether Scotland should become an independent country.

For example, voters could instead be asked if they believed the Scottish government should begin negotiations with the UK government on Scotland leaving the UK.

Some commentators believe this is less likely to be successfully blocked by the UK government through the courts."

Re the bit in bold...I'm assuming this means that in late 2023 those who remain awake enough to vote would be voting not on whether Scotland should be independent but on whether the Scottish government should simply START negotiations about it?! I find it hard to believe that even Sturgeon, who has already fired so many 'indyref2 starting guns', would indulge in such a can-kicking exercise. Surely she has to come up with something more decisive than that? Even the National would struggle to keep spinning the 'any day now' headlines' for another few years...

https://wingsoverscotland.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/indypishfs.jpg

[JeMeSouviens]

Re the bit in bold...I'm assuming this means that in late 2023 those who remain awake enough to vote would be voting not on whether Scotland should be independent but on whether the Scottish government should simply START negotiations about it?! I find it hard to believe that even Sturgeon, who has already fired so many 'indyref2 starting guns', would indulge in such a can-kicking exercise. Surely she has to come up with something more decisive than that?

Indyref1 - The UK parliament (via a Section 30 order) gave the Scottish parliament the power to pass the Scottish Independence Referendum Act which basically said if Scotland votes yes, Scotland will become independent. There obviously would have been negotiations over the terms but the result was guaranteed by law to be enacted.

Brexit ref - an advisory ref. There was no guarantee (other than rhetoric from Tories and you can attach as much weight to that as you like :wink:) that the government would do anything with the result. Legally, the UK parliament would have been perfectly within its rights to say this is a stupid idea, we're not doing anything. Politically, that was impossible.

Indyref2 - Scotgov's preferred route is as per Indyref1 but they seem likely to say that if UK parliament won't agree to S30, they will go ahead with a Brexit style advisory ref. The question would still be "Should Scotland be an independent country?" but there would be no legal guarantee that it would be enacted. Just like Brexit, Scotgov would hope the political pressure made it impossible to ignore and that the UK gov would therefore enter into negotiations to bring it about.


The question about legality of Indyref2 boils down to the difference between guaranteed and advisory. The union is a reserved matter, only Westminster (or Holyrood exercising Westminster's power via an agreed S30) can dissolve it. Scotgov's argument is that testing the opinion of Scots via an advisory ref does not actually enact any change to the constiution, it merely advises the powers that be that that's what Scots want. Nobody knows how that would actually play out in court, although I'd personally be amazed if the UK's supreme court allowed it.

[Skol]

Indyref1 - The UK parliament (via a Section 30 order) gave the Scottish parliament the power to pass the Scottish Independence Referendum Act which basically said if Scotland votes yes, Scotland will become independent. There obviously would have been negotiations over the terms but the result was guaranteed by law to be enacted.

Brexit ref - an advisory ref. There was no guarantee (other than rhetoric from Tories and you can attach as much weight to that as you like :wink:) that the government would do anything with the result. Legally, the UK parliament would have been perfectly within its rights to say this is a stupid idea, we're not doing anything. Politically, that was impossible.

Indyref2 - Scotgov's preferred route is as per Indyref1 but they seem likely to say that if UK parliament won't agree to S30, they will go ahead with a Brexit style advisory ref. The question would still be "Should Scotland be an independent country?" but there would be no legal guarantee that it would be enacted. Just like Brexit, Scotgov would hope the political pressure made it impossible to ignore and that the UK gov would therefore enter into negotiations to bring it about.


The question about legality of Indyref2 boils down to the difference between guaranteed and advisory. The union is a reserved matter, only Westminster (or Holyrood exercising Westminster's power via an agreed S30) can dissolve it. Scotgov's argument is that testing the opinion of Scots via an advisory ref does not actually enact any change to the constiution, it merely advises the powers that be that that's what Scots want. Nobody knows how that would actually play out in court, although I'd personally be amazed if the UK's supreme court allowed it.

I dont doubt that Sturgeon has a mandate for an S30. She does whether those that dont favour Independence like it or not. What I dont understand is why she will not ask for an S30 when she has that mandate.

A consultative referendum is pointless and kicks the can down the road and risks a nonsense outcome with a whopping majority on a less than 50% turnout

Surely asking for an S30 is a win win. Get it approved and we have a referendum. Have it denied and we give the anti democratic argument some legs

[Keith_M]

Has anybody used the phrase 'Neverendum' recently? Been a while since I read that anywhere, and it's sorely missed.

I'm sure I read the argument by the No side in 2014 that we would be invaded by the Russians if we were an independent country. You'd think/hope they'd avoid that kind of nonsense this time around, if nothing else in the grounds of it being in poor taste, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Sadly 'Baroness' Mone can no longer warn us that she would flee Scotland if independence ever happened,,, as she has already fled... so I'm really gonna miss reading about that in the Herald once a fortnight.

If I were a Unionist, I'd be concentrating all my power and energy pointing out how much money the Monarchy bring into this country... mostly in Charles' carrier bags. Though, for some strange reason, Tricky Nicky wants to keep us living under the thumb of the Monarchy, so maybe he'd chuck a few bundles of cash over the border now and then.

[JeMeSouviens]

I dont doubt that Sturgeon has a mandate for an S30. She does whether those that dont favour Independence like it or not. What I dont understand is why she will not ask for an S30 when she has that mandate.

A consultative referendum is pointless and kicks the can down the road and risks a nonsense outcome with a whopping majority on a less than 50% turnout

Surely asking for an S30 is a win win. Get it approved and we have a referendum. Have it denied and we give the anti democratic argument some legs

Think she'll ask for it today. Can't see why she wouldn't or anywhere she's said she won't?

[Skol]

Has anybody used the phrase 'Neverendum' recently? Been a while since I read that anywhere, and it's sorely missed.

I'm sure I read the argument by the No side in 2014 that we would be invaded by the Russians if we were an independent country. You'd think/hope they'd avoid that kind of nonsense this time around, if nothing else in the grounds of it being in poor taste, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Sadly 'Baroness' Mone can no longer warn us that she would flee Scotland if independence ever happened,,, as she has already fled... so I'm really gonna miss reading about that in the Herald once a fortnight.

If I were a Unionist, I'd be concentrating all my power and energy pointing out how much money the Monarchy bring into this country... mostly in Charles' carrier bags. Though, for some strange reason, Tricky Nicky wants to keep us living under the thumb of the Monarchy, so maybe he'd chuck a few bundles of cash over the border now and then.

If that is the case of Independence then we are in trouble ;-)

All will become clear just after 2pm

[lapsedhibee]

Has anybody used the phrase 'Neverendum' recently? Been a while since I read that anywhere, and it's sorely missed.

Saw Murray R quoted the other day using something like 'pretenderendum' for a referendum that he and Johnson didn't want. He's a card.

[WhileTheChief..]

Has anybody used the phrase 'Neverendum' recently? Been a while since I read that anywhere, and it's sorely missed.

I'm sure I read the argument by the No side in 2014 that we would be invaded by the Russians if we were an independent country. You'd think/hope they'd avoid that kind of nonsense this time around, if nothing else in the grounds of it being in poor taste, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Sadly 'Baroness' Mone can no longer warn us that she would flee Scotland if independence ever happened,,, as she has already fled... so I'm really gonna miss reading about that in the Herald once a fortnight.

If I were a Unionist, I'd be concentrating all my power and energy pointing out how much money the Monarchy bring into this country... mostly in Charles' carrier bags. Though, for some strange reason, Tricky Nicky wants to keep us living under the thumb of the Monarchy, so maybe he'd chuck a few bundles of cash over the border now and then.

I remember the SNP saying the days of armies marching into other countries in Europe were over and that we didn’t need an army!

[James310]

https://twitter.com/HTScotPol/status/1541740222651813888?t=LslGWHuy5x32bcUSamTO3A&s=19

[He's here!]

I remember the SNP saying the days of armies marching into other countries in Europe were over and that we didn’t need an army!

The SNP have their own army of devotees which Sturgeon marches up to the top of the indyref2 hill every now and then just to keep their morale up :wink:

[He's here!]

Indyref1 - The UK parliament (via a Section 30 order) gave the Scottish parliament the power to pass the Scottish Independence Referendum Act which basically said if Scotland votes yes, Scotland will become independent. There obviously would have been negotiations over the terms but the result was guaranteed by law to be enacted.

Brexit ref - an advisory ref. There was no guarantee (other than rhetoric from Tories and you can attach as much weight to that as you like :wink:) that the government would do anything with the result. Legally, the UK parliament would have been perfectly within its rights to say this is a stupid idea, we're not doing anything. Politically, that was impossible.

Indyref2 - Scotgov's preferred route is as per Indyref1 but they seem likely to say that if UK parliament won't agree to S30, they will go ahead with a Brexit style advisory ref. The question would still be "Should Scotland be an independent country?" but there would be no legal guarantee that it would be enacted. Just like Brexit, Scotgov would hope the political pressure made it impossible to ignore and that the UK gov would therefore enter into negotiations to bring it about.


The question about legality of Indyref2 boils down to the difference between guaranteed and advisory. The union is a reserved matter, only Westminster (or Holyrood exercising Westminster's power via an agreed S30) can dissolve it. Scotgov's argument is that testing the opinion of Scots via an advisory ref does not actually enact any change to the constiution, it merely advises the powers that be that that's what Scots want. Nobody knows how that would actually play out in court, although I'd personally be amazed if the UK's supreme court allowed it.

Thanks. That's an interesting breakdown of the options. Re the bit in bold, though, whereas the Brexit vote attracted a whopping voter turnout (bigger than most general elections IIRC) and could reasonably be said to represent the will of the UK electorate, an advisory Scottish referendum would all but certainly attract a far smaller proportion of voters. Opponents would simply crank up the 'meaningless pretenderendum' rhetoric and encourage those against a referendum to boycott it. I would personally abstain from a voting exercise which carried so little clout.

[James310]

The SNP have their own army of devotees which Sturgeon marches up to the top of the indyref2 hill every now and then just to keep their morale up :wink:

That looks like what exactly today is about now. The next update she really will give an update, she promises.

[James310]

Thanks. That's an interesting breakdown of the options. Re the bit in bold, though, whereas the Brexit vote attracted a whopping voter turnout (bigger than most general elections IIRC) and could reasonably be said to represent the will of the UK electorate, an advisory Scottish referendum would all but certainly attract a far smaller proportion of voters. Opponents would simply crank up the 'meaningless pretenderendum' rhetoric and encourage those against a referendum to boycott it. I would personally abstain from a voting exercise which carried so little clout.

The Brexit vote had the political will behind it as well, all parties engaged and knew that the outcome would be delivered on. There was a Leave and a Remain side and both campaigned accordingly. That's not the case this time at all if an advisory referendum is announced for Independence.

[JeMeSouviens]

I remember the SNP saying the days of armies marching into other countries in Europe were over and that we didn’t need an army!

I'm pretty sure you don't actually or I'd be very interested to see the quotes.

I thought the defence position of the SNP in indyref1 was ludicrous. Basically keep everything (maybe even add conventional forces?) whether it makes strategic sense for a small country or not. One of the weakest areas in the white paper. They've done a fair bit of work, led by the MP Stewart Macdonald, and seem to have a much better story this time. Look at how we could fit into the NATO structure and complement other countries offerings.

[wookie70]

People care about is their job safe, are my kids safe and getting well educated, if I get sick will the NHS look after me. They don't wake up being angry about democracy.

Democracy determines if you get those things or in Scotland's case much of that is decided by English voters at General Elections. I also care about the society I live in and English voters appear to want a very different society than Scottish voters, albeit First Past the Post does distort the wishes of the masses.

[JeMeSouviens]

Thanks. That's an interesting breakdown of the options. Re the bit in bold, though, whereas the Brexit vote attracted a whopping voter turnout (bigger than most general elections IIRC) and could reasonably be said to represent the will of the UK electorate, an advisory Scottish referendum would all but certainly attract a far smaller proportion of voters. Opponents would simply crank up the 'meaningless pretenderendum' rhetoric and encourage those against a referendum to boycott it. I would personally abstain from a voting exercise which carried so little clout.

Yes, I more or less agree. As I said earlier, I think Unionism's best strategy is to ignore it. Not even challenge in court.

[Just Alf]

I'm pretty sure you don't actually or I'd be very interested to see the quotes.

I thought the defence position of the SNP in indyref1 was ludicrous. Basically keep everything (maybe even add conventional forces?) whether it makes strategic sense for a small country or not. One of the weakest areas in the white paper. They've done a fair bit of work, led by the MP Stewart Macdonald, and seem to have a much better story this time. Look at how we could fit into the NATO structure and complement other countries offerings.I don't think they did either.... Boris Johnson did however when he was talking about reducing spending on tanks etc last year.

[wookie70]

I don't think they did either.... Boris Johnson did however when he was talking about reducing spending on tanks etc last year.

That was my thoughts too - https://www.indy100.com/politics/boris-johnson-russia-ukraine-tanks

[James310]

Lol. A pretend referendum it is.

[SteveHFC]

19th of October for the vote.

[heretoday]

Lol. A pretend referendum it is.

It's a huge waste of time and money and does the people of Scotland no favours.

[lapsedhibee]

Lol. A pretend referendum it is.

That's a peculiar interpretation of what she said.

[James310]

I agree. Hopefully that is not the plan. This needs to be a fight for democracy. Let Labour and the Tories argue against democracy. There will only be one winner there.


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Well that is the plan. Disappointed?

[James310]

That's a peculiar interpretation of what she said.

It's a consultative referendum, she said so herself.

[ronaldo7]

Lol. A pretend referendum it is.

Jeez, the Supreme Court came back with a decision quickly.

[lapsedhibee]

Jeez, the Supreme Court came back with a decision quickly.

Sturgeon said about 57205732 times there would be no unlawful referendum. Murray Ross's opening remark was about a potentially illegal referendum. FFS. :bitchy:

[Skol]

It does seem a strange approach.

She is not asking for an s30 but saying she is ready to speak of Boris does. Meantime she is daring Westminster to put a legal stop to her consultative referendum.

So she keeps the troops happy but at best ends up with a referendum that no one takes part in.

[James310]

Jeez, the Supreme Court came back with a decision quickly.

The Supreme Court is being asked to give legal opinion on the consultative referendum, not a S30 legally binding one. They may well rule that a consultative referendum is legal, it still doesn't change the fact it's a consultative referendum. If it's legal then it's still a pretend referendum.

[JeMeSouviens]

Interesting. Scotgov to take the consultative ref to the Supreme Court themselves, not wait for UK gov challenge. If refused, they plan to make the next Holyrood election a de facto ref.

Also, for Skol, FM has written to Johnson again asking for S30.

[lapsedhibee]

She is not asking for an s30 but saying she is ready to speak of Boris does.

Didn't she say right at the start that she had written today to Johnson asking for that? I might have misheard/misunderstood.

[James310]

It does seem a strange approach.

She is not asking for an s30 but saying she is ready to speak of Boris does. Meantime she is daring Westminster to put a legal stop to her consultative referendum.

So she keeps the troops happy but at best ends up with a referendum that no one takes part in.

There seems to be some confusion on what the Supreme Court is being asked to do, they are being asked if the consultative referendum is legal. Not if the Scottish Parliament can legislate without a S30.

[Stairway 2 7]

I don't think they want one next year, it's too close. Let them say we can't, then it will take care of itself

[James310]

I don't think they want one next year, it's too close. Let them say we can't, then it will take care of itself

I would actually expect the Supreme Court to rule a consultative referendum is fine, as it's consultative then it's meaningless in terms of changing the constitution. So expect a Referendum next year with only 1 side taking part..

[Ozyhibby]

The Supreme Court is to rule one way or another. If they say Scottish parly has the right for a referendum then it proceeds legally. If they say that they don’t, then the referendum does not proceed and the SNP plan to use the next GE as a de-facto referendum.
At all times, the SNP are looking for democratic solutions. Unionists looking to avoid the will of the people.


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[ronaldo7]

The Supreme Court is being asked to give legal opinion on the consultative referendum, not a S30 legally binding one. They may well rule that a consultative referendum is legal, it still doesn't change the fact it's a consultative referendum. If it's legal then it's still a pretend referendum.

It's a legal referendum if the Supreme Court says so.

I think she's taken the wind out of unionist sails.

The only pretendyref is Douglas Ross it seems.

[Skol]

Interesting. Scotgov to take the consultative ref to the Supreme Court themselves, not wait for UK gov challenge. If refused, they plan to make the next Holyrood election a de facto ref.

Also, for Skol, FM has written to Johnson again asking for S30.

She said she is writing to Johnson but didn’t say she is requesting an S30 just that she is ready to talk if he wants to.

[James310]

The Supreme Court is to rule one way or another. If they say Scottish parly has the right for a referendum then it proceeds legally. If they say that they don’t, then the referendum does not proceed and the SNP plan to use the next GE as a de-facto referendum.
At all times, the SNP are looking for democratic solutions. Unionists looking to avoid the will of the people.


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A consultative referendum may well be legal,. probably is. Still makes it a consultative referendum. The thing you said you never wanted.

[Ozyhibby]

I would actually expect the Supreme Court to rule a consultative referendum is fine, as it's consultative then it's meaningless in terms of changing the constitution. So expect a Referendum next year with only 1 side taking part..

It’s not meaningless. If they rule it’s legal then it’s legal. The people of Scotland will expect the SG to negotiate our exit from the UK, just like in previous referendums. If it’s not legal then it won’t go ahead.


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[SteveHFC]

Let's say if the next general election ends up being a ‘de facto’ referendum and it ends up being a no vote again. Where does that leave the SNP aftet that?

[Ozyhibby]

It's a legal referendum if the Supreme Court says so.

I think she's taken the wind out of unionist sails.

The only pretendyref is Douglas Ross it seems.

Felt a bit sorry for him there. He obviously had prepared lines to take which did not allow for him to listen to what was said by the FM. He needs to stay.


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[Skol]

It’s a fudge to try and gone up with a referendum like 2014 but I suspect it will end up a bit like Catalonia.

There will be a vote with a sizeable majority on a low turnout and it will take us no further forward.

It’s all just a show for the SNP fan base.

[lapsedhibee]

Felt a bit sorry for him there. He obviously had prepared lines to take which did not allow for him to listen to what was said by the FM. He needs to stay.


You could hear it in her statement over and over again, 'this is to stop you, Douglas Ross, banging on about an illegal referendum' 'and this, too, is to stop you, Douglas Ross, banging on about an illegal referendum'. Ross: stands up, "illegal referendum". :faf:

[lapsedhibee]

It’s a fudge to try and gone up with a referendum like 2014 but I suspect it will end up a bit like Catalonia.

There will be a vote with a sizeable majority on a low turnout and it will take us no further forward.

It’s all just a show for the SNP fan base.

Are you still pretending you haven't quite made up your mind about independence? :faf:

[Ozyhibby]

Have to say, this is a strong move by NS. Whatever happens, I think by the end of it there will be an agreed process for calling referendums in future.


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[James310]

Have to say, this is a strong move by NS. Whatever happens, I think by the end of it there will be an agreed process for calling referendums in future.


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With respect Ozzy you are all over the place here. You agreed this morning any consultative referendum was a waste of time and money and said you hope that's not the plan. That is the plan.

The Supreme Court is being asked to advise if only a consultative referendum is legal, it probably is as by being consultative it has no legal status. So you were arguing against it this morning but now seem happy with it.

The worst case scenario for the SNP is bizarrely the Supreme Court find it legal and she can hold her consultative referendum that's boycotted by half the country.

[GlesgaeHibby]

Have to say, this is a strong move by NS. Whatever happens, I think by the end of it there will be an agreed process for calling referendums in future.


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I'm not her biggest fan, but was pleasantly surprised that she's been bold enough to go for a plebiscite if UK govt deny a referendum. Bring it on.

[Skol]

Are you still pretending you haven't quite made up your mind about independence? :faf:

Based on the arguments to date I have made my mind up. However if the snp bring forward a case I will look at it and see if that changes my mind.

[ronaldo7]

That's the letter away to the PM.

[Skol]

Have to say, this is a strong move by NS. Whatever happens, I think by the end of it there will be an agreed process for calling referendums in future.


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I am not so sure that will be the case. We can’t just have a new referendum whenever the snp call for one. There needs to be a trigger and would be good to agree what those are.

[Ozyhibby]

I am not so sure that will be the case. We can’t just have a new referendum whenever the snp call for one. There needs to be a trigger and would be good to agree what those are.

That’s exactly what I meant. There should be set rules like there are in NI (only after 7 years have past etc).


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[Moulin Yarns]

You could hear it in her statement over and over again, 'this is to stop you, Douglas Ross, banging on about an illegal referendum' 'and this, too, is to stop you, Douglas Ross, banging on about an illegal referendum'. Ross: stands up, "illegal referendum". :faf:

A lawyer running rings round a farmer! 😂😂


478 days to go!


19th October, the date the British surrender in the American war of independence!

[JeMeSouviens]

I am not so sure that will be the case. We can’t just have a new referendum whenever the snp call for one. There needs to be a trigger and would be good to agree what those are.

The trigger was SNP & Greens standing on manifestos promising an indyref and winning a majority in the parliament.

[James310]

How would a plebiscite work? What if the parties against Independence organised themselves so to only stand 1 pro UK candidate against the SNP in each seat?

[Moulin Yarns]

How would a plebiscite work? What if the parties against Independence organised themselves so to only stand 1 pro UK candidate against the SNP in each seat?

You mean gaming the system.

[WhileTheChief..]

I'm pretty sure you don't actually or I'd be very interested to see the quotes.

I thought the defence position of the SNP in indyref1 was ludicrous. Basically keep everything (maybe even add conventional forces?) whether it makes strategic sense for a small country or not. One of the weakest areas in the white paper. They've done a fair bit of work, led by the MP Stewart Macdonald, and seem to have a much better story this time. Look at how we could fit into the NATO structure and complement other countries offerings.

I’ve no idea how to find a quote from a clip on the news from years ago.

You could just take my word for it. I don’t just make things up.

[James310]

You mean gaming the system.

Yes, but isn't using a general election as a Referendum doing exactly that.

[Ozyhibby]

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/scotland-referendum-independence-nicola-sturgeon-boris-johnson-britain-broken/


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[GlesgaeHibby]

Wonder if Boris will call a snap election whilst this
is going through the supreme court, in anticipation of them ruling it's not within competence of Scottish parliament.

[James310]

https://twitter.com/michaeljmarra/status/1541784444591374339?t=x-q-VdUYQd7BL5AhvhZzvw&s=19

[JeMeSouviens]

I’ve no idea how to find a quote from a clip on the news from years ago.

You could just take my word for it. I don’t just make things up.

I didn't mean to accuse you of making things up, but I think it's likely you've misremembered or confused it with something else.

[wookie70]

As long as there is only one referendum then I don't really care if it is consultative or not. Brexit was consultative. If the Scottish People say Yes then it will happen if they say no I think I would want something that said that would be that for a set period with the minimum being 7-10 years or thereabouts so a period of calm and reflection takes place.

At least we will get some clarity now as to whether Scotland has the power to call referendums on Independence and then what the people think, if we are allowed to vote. For Indi supporters like me the best result could be the courts ruling we cannot legally ask the question. That really ends any thought that we are a democratic nation who can decide on our own destiny and will likely topple Boris off the top of the Make Indi Happen table.

[Skol]

The trigger was SNP & Greens standing on manifestos promising an indyref and winning a majority in the parliament.

I don’t think that alone is sufficient. The combination of that and Brexit I think can be argued to be the case. Let’s say this wheeze gets through and we vote no again. An snp and green majority at next holyrood ejection would not in my view be a new mandate. There would need to be something else that was a material change.

[WhileTheChief..]

I don't think they did either.... Boris Johnson did however when he was talking about reducing spending on tanks etc last year.

The events in Ukraine have shown us that spending money on anti tank weapons is more valuable than spending it on tanks themselves!

It’s not politicians that decide what equipment to buy, I t’s down to the military.

They obviously, and correctly, wanted to spend the money on different things.

Just because you didn’t see the thing in the news that I did, doesn’t mean it didn’t happen.

[wookie70]

I’ve no idea how to find a quote from a clip on the news from years ago.

You could just take my word for it. I don’t just make things up.

We can't take your word for it if we were listening to the same news etc and didn't hear it. The only person I can remember saying similar is Johnson about tanks and I linked an article. We won't be able to find anything if it was never said and I spent 10 minutes looking when you posted as I can't recall that ever being said.

Here is what the SNP were saying (https://www.theguardian.com/news/2014/sep/04/scottish-independence-scotland-defence-trident) about armed forces in 2014


Work towards a total of 15,000 regular and 5,000 reserve personnel in the decade following independence (from 7,500 regular and 2,000 reserve personnel at the point of independence).

[weecounty hibby]

I don’t think that alone is sufficient. The combination of that and Brexit I think can be argued to be the case. Let’s say this wheeze gets through and we vote no again. An snp and green majority at next holyrood ejection would not in my view be a new mandate. There would need to be something else that was a material change.

But that's because it suits your viewpoint. You wont be surprised that I disagree. If Scotland keeps returning parties who have independence and a referendum in their manifesto then they are entitled to try to make that happen

[ronaldo7]

https://twitter.com/michaeljmarra/status/1541784444591374339?t=x-q-VdUYQd7BL5AhvhZzvw&s=19

I'm sure theirs a thread about drugs deaths. Maybe Michael marra would like to join it.

[Ozyhibby]

I don’t think that alone is sufficient. The combination of that and Brexit I think can be argued to be the case. Let’s say this wheeze gets through and we vote no again. An snp and green majority at next holyrood ejection would not in my view be a new mandate. There would need to be something else that was a material change.

I agree and I think Brexit is the only reason we are where we are. I also think it should be made law the rules around such things rather than it being at the political whim of whoever wins the most votes in England.


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[The Modfather]

I don’t think that alone is sufficient. The combination of that and Brexit I think can be argued to be the case. Let’s say this wheeze gets through and we vote no again. An snp and green majority at next holyrood ejection would not in my view be a new mandate. There would need to be something else that was a material change.

Can we apply that to general elections as well? If the Tories win a majority in the next election we don’t take that as a mandate for them to continue in power?

[stoneyburn hibs]

Yes, but isn't using a general election as a Referendum doing exactly that.

No, it's in the parties manifesto.

[ronaldo7]

I agree and I think Brexit is the only reason we are where we are. I also think it should be made law the rules around such things rather than it being at the political whim of whoever wins the most votes in England.


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This is where unwritten constitutions takes you.

[stoneyburn hibs]

I don’t think that alone is sufficient. The combination of that and Brexit I think can be argued to be the case. Let’s say this wheeze gets through and we vote no again. An snp and green majority at next holyrood ejection would not in my view be a new mandate. There would need to be something else that was a material change.

I'm pretty sure voters know what they're voting for when they vote SNP or Green.

[ronaldo7]

Im rather disappointed in the unionist stance since the announcement. Still trying to deny democracy. Pretendyref, wheeze etc.

It's not a good look guys.

[James310]

No, it's in the parties manifesto.

SNP has what about 45 MPs out of 59. They have that today, if they think it's sufficient in the future why is it not sufficient now?

What if the other parties do game the system and stand only 1 candidate to not split the Labour/Tory/LD vote, then what?

What if the SNP get 45% of the vote like in 2019, is that sufficient? What if Westminster says go away we won't negotiate Indy on a General Election results, with 55% of people voting for non Indy parties then that would likely be acceptable to the majority of people in Scotland.

Sorry, not questions for you, just thinking about how it would all work.

Feels like yet another kick the can along the road until 2024 and please keep voting for SNP. I know the majority on here disagree though!

[James310]

Im rather disappointed in the unionist stance since the announcement. Still trying to deny democracy. Pretendyref, wheeze etc.

It's not a good look guys.

If it's a consultative referendum and it's ignored and boycotted by half the country then it's you that will likely be disappointed.

As other Indy supporters have said on here, a waste if time and money. A big poll asking Independence supporters if they want Independence.

[Moulin Yarns]

Yes, but isn't using a general election as a Referendum doing exactly that.

I doubt it, if you are for independence you are likely to be voting snp or Scottish greens anyway, similarly if you are against independence you will already be voting for the one of the other parties.

[Ozyhibby]

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/another-scottish-independence-referendum-is-coming

Massie with what I think is a fair interpretation. Today will force things forward one way or another.


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[Just Alf]

The events in Ukraine have shown us that spending money on anti tank weapons is more valuable than spending it on tanks themselves!

It’s not politicians that decide what equipment to buy, I t’s down to the military.

They obviously, and correctly, wanted to spend the money on different things.

Just because you didn’t see the thing in the news that I did, doesn’t mean it didn’t happen.Not sure I get why you're coming across angry at me?

The something along the line of the quote you originally mentioned was said by BJ last year, tanks, standing armies he said were a thing of the past and why he was reducing military spend on the army etc.

I'm sure if NS had said similar it would have been discussed at the time (likely on this very thread!), that's not to say it didn't happen, could well have and I've missed it.

[Kato]

Im rather disappointed in the unionist stance since the announcement. Still trying to deny democracy. Pretendyref, wheeze etc.

It's not a good look guys.Gaslighting has become the norm.

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[ronaldo7]

If it's a consultative referendum and it's ignored and boycotted by half the country then it's you that will likely be disappointed.

As other Indy supporters have said on here, a waste if time and money. A big poll asking Independence supporters if they want Independence.

I'm prepared to let the legalities play out. That's the Democratic way. It's a pity some don't hold those principles. We'd be in a far better place as a "United" kingdom if they did.

[weecounty hibby]

If it's a consultative referendum and it's ignored and boycotted by half the country then it's you that will likely be disappointed.

As other Indy supporters have said on here, a waste if time and money. A big poll asking Independence supporters if they want Independence.
Why wouldn't you want your say? Really ram home what you've been telling over and over that the No side will win a referendum? You make your case regularly, and well, but don't want the people of Scotland to have the choice. I am stunned by that stance. It is so so weak and almost says that you don't have a winning argument so your just no playing.

[He's here!]

Yes, but isn't using a general election as a Referendum doing exactly that.

They've always used elections as 'mandates' for independence even if they try to claim otherwise. At least they're being honest about what they'll be using the next one for...and it's certainly a better prospect for them than trying to stand on their lamentable record in government :wink:

[James310]

Why wouldn't you want your say? Really ram home what you've been telling over and over that the No side will win a referendum? You make your case regularly, and well, but don't want the people of Scotland to have the choice. I am stunned by that stance. It is so so weak and almost says that you don't have a winning argument so your just no playing.

A fair challenge. I don't want another divisive referendum, if No did win then I would fully expect IndyRef3 campaigning to start within weeks. It's an obsession for some in the SNP, the SNP only need to win once but it feels like the No side need to keep winning and winning again and it takes to focus off the important things.

Time will tell if I am on the wrong side or not.

I also think using a general election is a bit of a fudge, it opens up a whole new set of unanswered questions that again takes the focus off the important things.

It's yet another kick the can down the road as we can see from comments on here it will galvanise support for a general election in 2024. And round and round we go, exactly what she wants to keep the wolves from the door for another few years before she bows out.

[Ozyhibby]

https://twitter.com/peston/status/1541808085488078848?s=21&t=Ybrsx_sB5-YU001azd_6Hg

Most news outlets and political commentators seem to think this a serious move by NS and not the fudge characterised by some on here.


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[Skol]

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/another-scottish-independence-referendum-is-coming

Massie with what I think is a fair interpretation. Today will force things forward one way or another.


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Thanks for the link. Spectator isn’t somewhere I go looking but I did find that a useful piece and a good analysis of where this is likely to go

I know some like to say unionists are denying democracy. This particular one does still think we need to have the second (and final) referendum.

I also think we should have it sooner rather than later and I am pretty confident that no would be the answer.

[ronaldo7]

https://twitter.com/michaeljmarra/status/1541784444591374339?t=x-q-VdUYQd7BL5AhvhZzvw&s=19

It turns out this was just fake news from the MSP.

Over 90 amendments(mostly opposition) to the covid bill are the reason. Business Bureau decide the chamber timetable.

Drugs will be discussed on Thursday.

I suppose we can all get wrapped up in events, but I'd have thought an MSP might know his business.

[WhileTheChief..]

If the polls are around 50/50 next year, would NS even want to have a referendum?

I thought she said it would only take place if there was a clear victory in sight?

[Keith_M]

Lol. A pretend referendum it is.


Oi, Murray Ross says it's a Pretenderendum!

Please at least try to use the correct phrase.

[James310]

If the polls are around 50/50 next year, would NS even want to have a referendum?

I thought she said it would only take place if there was a clear victory in sight?

Why not, if she loses then IndyRef3 will kick off within weeks. It's not like the SNP are going to drop their desire for Indy all of a sudden. It will be something else that will mean we must have Independence to solve X, Y or Z.

[weecounty hibby]

A fair challenge. I don't want another divisive referendum, if No did win then I would fully expect IndyRef3 campaigning to start within weeks. It's an obsession for some in the SNP, the SNP only need to win once but it feels like the No side need to keep winning and winning again and it takes to focus off the important things.

Time will tell if I am on the wrong side or not.

I also think using a general election is a bit of a fudge, it opens up a whole new set of unanswered questions that again takes the focus off the important things.

It's yet another kick the can down the road as we can see from comments on here it will galvanise support for a general election in 2024. And round and round we go, exactly what she wants to keep the wolves from the door for another few years before she bows out.
I would honestly categorise myself as being in the obsessed camp! I have wanted Independence my whole life, it's why I joined the SNP and why I campaign hard for them and for independence.
People saying that she is fudging or just kicking the can down the road ar wrong imo. This is a move that no one expected from her and as far as I can see no one from the Tories or Labour had any answers to her. Just more of the same democracy denying stuff as before or the boring rubbish about the day job (not that the day job isn't important just it's a BS argument).
If we gain independence and then there is an election where a party were to stand on a platform of holding a referendum to be controlled by Westminster again or not and they won then so be it. That is democracy. That's how it works and that us what we are being denied right now. I hate the Tories but they were voted in as government, I have to accept that and what they do as that us democracy. I disagree with brexit but a vote was had, albeit a non binding one, and brexit happened. I don't like it and think it's a tragedy but that's democracy. Again something being denied in scotland

[matty_f]

If it's fine to break the law to get out of Brexit rules it should be fine to do it for independence, imho. :greengrin

Let's get it done.

[The Modfather]

Why not, if she loses then IndyRef3 will kick off within weeks. It's not like the SNP are going to drop their desire for Indy all of a sudden. It will be something else that will mean we must have Independence to solve X, Y or Z.

C’mon James you’re more constructive than that. Brexit is the enabler for indyref 2 to be possible. Lose the second referendum and anyone campaigning on an indyref 3 ticket is likely to be at their own expense and find themselves not in power.

Much the same as if Indyref2 is a resounding win, you won’t find me talking about no more referendums or waiting a “generation” for a referendum about re-joining. If we vote a party in on a ticket to have a referendum on rejoining then we should have one.

[Bristolhibby]

With respect Ozzy you are all over the place here. You agreed this morning any consultative referendum was a waste of time and money and said you hope that's not the plan. That is the plan.

The Supreme Court is being asked to advise if only a consultative referendum is legal, it probably is as by being consultative it has no legal status. So you were arguing against it this morning but now seem happy with it.

The worst case scenario for the SNP is bizarrely the Supreme Court find it legal and she can hold her consultative referendum that's boycotted by half the country.

So Ozzy in a microcosm has proven that with more information you can change your mind.

Democracy in action.

J

[James310]

I would honestly categorise myself as being in the obsessed camp! I have wanted Independence my whole life, it's why I joined the SNP and why I campaign hard for them and for independence.
People saying that she is fudging or just kicking the can down the road ar wrong imo. This is a move that no one expected from her and as far as I can see no one from the Tories or Labour had any answers to her. Just more of the same democracy denying stuff as before or the boring rubbish about the day job (not that the day job isn't important just it's a BS argument).
If we gain independence and then there is an election where a party were to stand on a platform of holding a referendum to be controlled by Westminster again or not and they won then so be it. That is democracy. That's how it works and that us what we are being denied right now. I hate the Tories but they were voted in as government, I have to accept that and what they do as that us democracy. I disagree with brexit but a vote was had, albeit a non binding one, and brexit happened. I don't like it and think it's a tragedy but that's democracy. Again something being denied in scotland

What if Westminster says no, you can't rejoin? So that's not really how it works in reality. Sure we could vote for Independence and it could be a disaster and then we vote again to join the UK, but the rUK might tell us to do one. So I think saying we just vote to rejoin the UK and it's a done deal is not correct.

I think most people expected the referendum would be consultative (predicted by myself a good few weeks ago) but I don't think many thought she would use the next General Election as some kind of Independence vote. I am not really sure how that would work as know little about it, but seems like it would have yet more unanswered questions and legal shenanigans to unpick.

I think that's exactly what she wants, buys her a few more years and galvanises the vote for the next General Election, although I am sure everyone who voted SNP at the last election also voted for Independence so why it makes a difference next time I am not entirely sure.

[Bristolhibby]

This is where unwritten constitutions takes you.

First thing Indy Scotland needs to do (in consultation with all sides) is write down a constitution.

J

[Bristolhibby]

If it's a consultative referendum and it's ignored and boycotted by half the country then it's you that will likely be disappointed.

As other Indy supporters have said on here, a waste if time and money. A big poll asking Independence supporters if they want Independence.

Well that’s their democratic choose for Unionists not to engage. Be a bit silly as the result will go against them and will usher in Independence.

J

[Bristolhibby]

If the polls are around 50/50 next year, would NS even want to have a referendum?

I thought she said it would only take place if there was a clear victory in sight?

We’re they not 30/70 in 2013?

J

[Bristolhibby]

If it's fine to break the law to get out of Brexit rules it should be fine to do it for independence, imho. :greengrin

Let's get it done.

Good point. We will have no grandstanding from Westminster. What’s good for the goose is good for the gander.

J

[Ozyhibby]

We’re they not 30/70 in 2013?

J

On a good day.


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[He's here!]

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/another-scottish-independence-referendum-is-coming

Massie with what I think is a fair interpretation. Today will force things forward one way or another.


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And you're usually so quick to dismiss the Spectator as a credible source :wink:

Yes, agree with him too. Barring the Supreme Court taking it upon themselves to trample over matters reserved to Westminster today pretty much confirms there won't be a referendum next year (which I suspect Sturgeon has always privately accepted).

The downside of that obviously means even more years of Sturgeon's lacklustre governance being endured while independence, the great drag on Scottish politics, continues to remain the only show in town. It's soul-sapping stuff. I can't even bring myself to watch her these days and just read whatever she has to say afterwards.

Can only hope that the wider political landscape has changed by 2024 to the extent that the chances of a yes vote (or indeed a referendum even being held) have ebbed away. The fact that I'd be pretty confident that Sturgeon would lose a referendum held tomorrow despite so many years of Tory government, Brexit, Johnson's ineptitude etc, means it's maybe not such a forlorn hope.

Talking of Johnson, what would happen if there was a snap election in the reasonably near future? Would the SNP fight that on independence alone?!

[ronaldo7]

What if Westminster says no, you can't rejoin? So that's not really how it works in reality. Sure we could vote for Independence and it could be a disaster and then we vote again to join the UK, but the rUK might tell us to do one. So I think saying we just vote to rejoin the UK and it's a done deal is not correct.

I think most people expected the referendum would be consultative (predicted by myself a good few weeks ago) but I don't think many thought she would use the next General Election as some kind of Independence vote. I am not really sure how that would work as know little about it, but seems like it would have yet more unanswered questions and legal shenanigans to unpick.

I think that's exactly what she wants, buys her a few more years and galvanises the vote for the next General Election, although I am sure everyone who voted SNP at the last election also voted for Independence so why it makes a difference next time I am not entirely sure.

A large group of SNP members have been asking for a general election to be a plebiscite on independence. They'll be chuffed tonight.

Thatcher said it herself. If the SNP want independence, they only have to send a majority of MPs from Scotland to Westminster.

I'm sure unionists will try and fight their way out of that too.

[James310]

Well that’s their democratic choose for Unionists not to engage. Be a bit silly as the result will go against them and will usher in Independence.

J

It will go against them if they don't take part. If you think a Yes vote with 99% on a turnout of about 40% is the will of the Scottish people and would be welcomed by the EU and UN etc I think you might be disappointed.

It will not usher in independence in those circumstances.

[Ozyhibby]

And you're usually so quick to dismiss the Spectator as a credible source :wink:

Yes, agree with him too. Barring the Supreme Court taking it upon themselves to trample over matters reserved to Westminster today pretty much confirms there won't be a referendum next year (which I suspect Sturgeon has always privately accepted).

The downside of that obviously means even more years of Sturgeon's lacklustre governance being endured while independence, the great drag on Scottish politics, continues to remain the only show in town. It's soul-sapping stuff. I can't even bring myself to watch her these days and just read whatever she has to say afterwards.

Can only hope that the wider political landscape has changed by 2024 to the extent that the chances of a yes vote (or indeed a referendum even being held) have ebbed away. The fact that I'd be pretty confident that Sturgeon would lose a referendum held tomorrow despite so many years of Tory government, Brexit, Johnson's ineptitude etc, means it's maybe not such a forlorn hope.

Talking of Johnson, what would happen if there was a snap election in the reasonably near future? Would the SNP fight that on independence alone?!

I’ve always said that I think Massie is a decent writer (shame he only writes about one thing). I’m not using it as a source as such, just pointing out that even die hard unionist commentators are acknowledging that today is a strong move by NS and that at some point soon, there will be a referendum.


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[Skol]

I don’t see how using the next GE as a defacto referendum would work.

There is no outcome that would lead to independence but I guess it could be claimed some outcome gives a mandate. Still doesn’t make it legal

And still we have no formal request for an s30. Why not?

[James310]

So the next SNP manifesto for a General Election will have no policies or anything in it, just vote for us for Independence. I can see the hardcore liking that, not so sure about the moderate SNP voters who may want more.

[James310]

I don’t see how using the next GE as a defacto referendum would work.

There is no outcome that would lead to independence but I guess it could be claimed some outcome gives a mandate. Still doesn’t make it legal

And still we have no formal request for an s30. Why not?

At the 2019 election the SNP won 45 out of the 59 seats, the difference that has made?

[Ozyhibby]

So the next SNP manifesto for a General Election will have no policies or anything in it, just vote for us for Independence. I can see the hardcore liking that, not so sure about the moderate SNP voters who may want more.

I’m pretty sure that will return 59/59 Scottish MP’s.


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[Hibs4185]

They should tie it to the next scottish election. Not sure if they can call one early or if it’s fixed terms but there is no way anyone would boycott it or they’d end up with 100% SNP politicians making decisions that effect them more than Westminster.

[James310]

I’m pretty sure that will return 59/59 Scottish MP’s.


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Lol, sure it would.

[Since90+2]

It's actually a very clever move by NS.

If the Supreme Court approve it, then it holds the exact same legal premise that the Brexit referendum did ie advisory referendum. It would be extremely difficult for Westminster given that they acted upon Brexit on that exact same basis.

If they still refuse to engage and the SNP absolutely romp the General election, which they probably would IMO, it poses a very real question about how Scotland's democratic voice can legitimately be heard.

[degenerated]

What if Westminster says no, you can't rejoin? So that's not really how it works in reality. Sure we could vote for Independence and it could be a disaster and then we vote again to join the UK, but the rUK might tell us to do one. So I think saying we just vote to rejoin the UK and it's a done deal is not correct.

I think most people expected the referendum would be consultative (predicted by myself a good few weeks ago) but I don't think many thought she would use the next General Election as some kind of Independence vote. I am not really sure how that would work as know little about it, but seems like it would have yet more unanswered questions and legal shenanigans to unpick.

I think that's exactly what she wants, buys her a few more years and galvanises the vote for the next General Election, although I am sure everyone who voted SNP at the last election also voted for Independence so why it makes a difference next time I am not entirely sure.Are there any precedents for colonies asking to be readmitted into the fold?

[Bristolhibby]

It will go against them if they don't take part. If you think a Yes vote with 99% on a turnout of about 40% is the will of the Scottish people and would be welcomed by the EU and UN etc I think you might be disappointed.

It will not usher in independence in those circumstances.

Let’s test the theory.

It’s like claiming only 30% voted for Brexit. It is true, but you can’t count those who couldn’t be arsed to vote.

J

[Bristolhibby]

Are there any precedents for colonies asking to be readmitted into the fold?

I think Texas is the only one.

Was independent and then asked to join the United States.

J

[James310]

Let’s test the theory.

It’s like claiming only 30% voted for Brexit. It is true, but you can’t count those who couldn’t be arsed to vote.

J


We may well do just that. If you think Yes winning on 99% will lead to independence then I have a bridge to sell you.

[Bristolhibby]

We may well do just that. If you think Yes winning on 99% will lead to independence then I have a bridge to sell you.

So how does Scotland have a referendum then?

There’s clearly no way. That’s not credible and is anti democratic. Why so much hatred for democracy?

If you believe in your cause, fight for it, make the case and put it to the people. Don’t hide behind technicalities.

J

[weecounty hibby]

What if Westminster says no, you can't rejoin? So that's not really how it works in reality. Sure we could vote for Independence and it could be a disaster and then we vote again to join the UK, but the rUK might tell us to do one. So I think saying we just vote to rejoin the UK and it's a done deal is not correct.

I think most people expected the referendum would be consultative (predicted by myself a good few weeks ago) but I don't think many thought she would use the next General Election as some kind of Independence vote. I am not really sure how that would work as know little about it, but seems like it would have yet more unanswered questions and legal shenanigans to unpick.

I think that's exactly what she wants, buys her a few more years and galvanises the vote for the next General Election, although I am sure everyone who voted SNP at the last election also voted for Independence so why it makes a difference next time I am not entirely sure.
"What if Westminster says no!!" Welcome to our world, but at least in that scenario there would be no pretence of being in a union of equals.

[James310]

So how does Scotland have a referendum then?

There’s clearly no way. That’s not credible and is anti democratic. Why so much hatred for democracy?

J

I refer to my previous answer, again.

In a speech in October 2015, Nicola Sturgeon said we should pursue a second independence referendum only if there is "strong and consistent evidence that people have changed their minds and that independence has become the choice of a clear majority in this country".

[Since90+2]

We may well do just that. If you think Yes winning on 99% will lead to independence then I have a bridge to sell you.

So the Surpreme Court says no, the next general election the SNP win at a canter and a independence referendum is again refused.

In that scenario how does the country make its voice heard about how it wants to proceed?

[Bristolhibby]

I refer to my previous answer, again.

In a speech in October 2015, Nicola Sturgeon said we should pursue a second independence referendum only if there is "strong and consistent evidence that people have changed their minds and that independence has become the choice of a clear majority in this country".

So a plebiscite is the only way to test that assertion. Also ignoring the fundamental constitutional change foisted on Scotland.

J

[Since90+2]

I refer to my previous answer, again.

In a speech in October 2015, Nicola Sturgeon said we should pursue a second independence referendum only if there is "strong and consistent evidence that people have changed their minds and that independence has become the choice of a clear majority in this country".

So beyond continually winning elections, which they would have done, how does the SNP meet that threshold in your opinion?

Please don't say opinion polls. Unless you are holding them to a higher standard than actual nationwide democratic elections with proper checks and balances.

[James310]

So beyond continually winning elections, which they would have done, how does the SNP meet that threshold in your opinion?

60% of vote share in Scottish or UK election demonstrating a clear shift in favour of Independence, consistent polls showing Yes in the lead for a sustained period of time.

I am repeating myself over and over so will bow out for a few days and come back when we might have a bit more information.

It's hard work keeping up!

[Since90+2]

60% of vote share in Scottish or UK election demonstrating a clear shift in favour of Independence, consistent polls showing Yes in the lead for a sustained period of time.

I am repeating myself over and over so will bow out for a few days and come back when we might have a bit more information.

It's hard work keeping up!

Polls? So you want to allow private companies, of which all polling companies are, to decide the democratic path of a country?

I'm not surprised you're bailing out.

[James310]

Polls? So you want to allow private companies, of which all polling companies are, to decide the democratic path of a country?

I'm not surprised you're bailing out.

Lol,ok. Elections aren't polls.

Taking a rest that's all.

[Since90+2]

Taking a rest that's all.

Sure it is 🤣.

[Since90+2]

Lol,ok. Elections aren't polls.

Taking a rest that's all.

Elections are not polls. Unless you are genuinely comparing whole nation democratic elections to polling company activities.

You've done well up till now, and I've given credit where it's due for that, but your clearly don't have a cohesive arguement against what's been set out.

And that's because there isn't one.

[Just Alf]

Why not, if she loses then IndyRef3 will kick off within weeks. It's not like the SNP are going to drop their desire for Indy all of a sudden. It will be something else that will mean we must have Independence to solve X, Y or Z.Unless something big like Brexit were to happen, anyone I know that's keen on a referendum happening soon all seem to think that'll be 'it' for another 10-15 years at least.

[SHODAN]

If this is blocked by the Supreme Court and it goes to a GE then looks like we might see Labour endorse tactical voting against another party after all! Just in Scotland, mind.

[Bristolhibby]

Unless something big like Brexit were to happen, anyone I know that's keen on a referendum happening soon all seem to think that'll be 'it' for another 10-15 years at least.

It will have been 9 years since the 2014 referendum.

Not far off 10/15 years.

[Bristolhibby]

If this is blocked by the Supreme Court and it goes to a GE then looks like we might see Labour endorse tactical voting against another party after all! Just in Scotland, mind.

All while needing to Whoo the SNP in Westminster for some sort of grace and favour voting arrangement in the interim. Come independence the Labour / Lib / SNP Government will fall.

J

[wookie70]

It will go against them if they don't take part. If you think a Yes vote with 99% on a turnout of about 40% is the will of the Scottish people and would be welcomed by the EU and UN etc I think you might be disappointed.

It will not usher in independence in those circumstances.

That is a good deal more of a percentage that Johnson got to be our PM. If people don't want to vote in a legal referendum then the presumption would have to be they weren't interested or didn't hold a strong enough point of view. In the case of Moray Ross perhaps he didn't understand the question

[The Modfather]

If this is blocked by the Supreme Court and it goes to a GE then looks like we might see Labour endorse tactical voting against another party after all! Just in Scotland, mind.

I don’t get what Scottish Labour and Scottish Tories get from being tethered to their parties in Westminster and not their own independent entities. Labour look like they won’t get in power for a while more and are bit part players in Scotland. The Tories are tethered to a toxic brand in the eyes of most up here and are also bit part players. Surely being their own parties and able to enforce meaningful change by pherhaps becoming electable in Scotland again, as well as offering credible alternatives to the SNP, is better than being a small fish in a big pond with no control over that pond.

[lapsedhibee]

That is a good deal more of a percentage that Johnson got to be our PM. If people don't want to vote in a legal referendum then the presumption would have to be they weren't interested or didn't hold a strong enough point of view. In the case of Moray Ross perhaps he didn't understand the question

:agree: Absolutely no idea why Ross and some people on this board are so sure that abstaining is the brilliant tactic they think it is.

[Just Alf]

It will have been 9 years since the 2014 referendum.

Not far off 10/15 years.True... I maybe should have said 'very least'... while I am 100% convinced the question should be asked now and a good 90-95% sure on independence, deep down I think this next referendum puts things to bed for a long time

[Kato]

Are there any precedents for colonies asking to be readmitted into the fold?lol

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[The_Exile]

I don’t get what Scottish Labour and Scottish Tories get from being tethered to their parties in Westminster and not their own independent entities. Labour look like they won’t get in power for a while more and are bit part players in Scotland. The Tories are tethered to a toxic brand in the eyes of most up here and are also bit part players. Surely being their own parties and able to enforce meaningful change by pherhaps becoming electable in Scotland again, as well as offering credible alternatives to the SNP, is better than being a small fish in a big pond with no control over that pond.

This is something I cannot get my head around. What benefit do they get in staying as part of a failing UK and failing UK political parties? There will be, and are, incredidble opportunities for them in an independent Scotland, what are they so scared of?!!

[Bristolhibby]

This is something I cannot get my head around. What benefit do they get in staying as part of a failing UK and failing UK political parties? There will be, and are, incredidble opportunities for them in an independent Scotland, what are they so scared of?!!

They will have to come Independence. Big opportunity for some thrusters to make their political mark. They will jump ship when the time comes, and their behaviour in the run up to Independence will be well noted.

J

[Moulin Yarns]

At the 2019 election the SNP won 45 out of the 59 seats, the difference that has made?

Or 76% sounds like a win 🤔😉

[Moulin Yarns]

60% of vote share in Scottish or UK election demonstrating a clear shift in favour of Independence, consistent polls showing Yes in the lead for a sustained period of time.

I am repeating myself over and over so will bow out for a few days and come back when we might have a bit more information.

It's hard work keeping up!

Why 60%? The no side lost in 2014 if that's the case.

[Ozyhibby]

Always thought that keeping Douglas Ross in post was great for the SNP but just watched Andrew Bowie on Scotland Tonight and if he was in the running to replace him then a change might not be so bad.[emoji6][emoji23]


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[Ozyhibby]

https://rozenberg.substack.com/p/uk-court-to-decide-uk-future


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[Ozyhibby]

https://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/columnists/scottish-independence-referendum-nicola-sturgeon-is-playing-her-cards-to-maximum-effect-joyce-mcmillan-3749047

Decent analysis.


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[He's here!]

Swinney in blunderland as usual...

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/29/john-swinney-sows-confusion-over-snp-claims-on-independence-mandate

[Just Alf]

Swinney in blunderland as usual...

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/29/john-swinney-sows-confusion-over-snp-claims-on-independence-mandateTo be fair he does explain it in the tweet quoted in the article.

Mind you, I thought you'd pick up on the fact that he'd basically quoted Margaret Thatcher! :greengrin

[Moulin Yarns]

https://bellacaledonia.org.uk/2022/06/29/on-surviving-and-winning-indyref2/


I think we can all agree on that. Although I am looking forward to hearing the answers to 15. From a fellow hibee. 😉

[JeMeSouviens]

Swinney in blunderland as usual...

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/29/john-swinney-sows-confusion-over-snp-claims-on-independence-mandate

I presume you mean his use of "referenda" when everyone knows the plural in English is "referendums"? Frankly, I agree, resigning matter. :grr:

[lapsedhibee]

I presume you mean his use of "referenda" when everyone knows the plural in English is "referendums"? Frankly, I agree, resigning matter. :grr:

:agree: Use of Latin plurals should be reserved for Eton old boys, and only toffs should be allowed to go to the opera.

[Frazerbob]

Swinney in blunderland as usual...

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/29/john-swinney-sows-confusion-over-snp-claims-on-independence-mandate

Burn the witch!

[Glory Lurker]

I presume you mean his use of "referenda" when everyone knows the plural in English is "referendums"? Frankly, I agree, resigning matter. :grr:

Not sure about that, but referring to Henry VIII rights yesterday had me choking on my cereal. Unforgivable, frankly.

[cabbageandribs1875]

most will be welcome :agree: and they won't even need to travel via Rwanda

(1) Clare �� on Twitter: "@EUMarauder I already did it in 2020. Not hanging around to see what happens. I'm in. �� #VoteYES #ScottishIndependence2023" / Twitter (https://twitter.com/clarelusher/status/1541883767366844417?s=19&fbclid=IwAR1y0UEWhl8CRmGIYsfhd6Qs8OzNEPDUJTUGosHkT KKAPXNUJg_2wZz8khM)

[James310]

This is after Nicola Sturgeons grand plan. Only 39% of people when asked said Yes to Independence. I would imagine the majority of Don't Knows would fall into No as well. Even without the Don't Knows it's a clear victory for No.

https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1542780997418340352?t=9tgSo4lzxcFzg4ZEidYuSg&s=19

Scottish Independence Voting Intention:

NO: 46%
YES: 39%
Don't Know: 15%

Don't Know's excluded:

NO: 54%
YES: 46%

Via @techneUK, On 29-30 June.


On reflection I am delighted with Nicola Sturgeons plan, it's a desperate last throw of the dice so she can leave after the General Election and say "well I did all I could". She has made this all about her legacy, or lack of it.

I am still working out what a 'de facto' referendum actually means, if the SNP say get 45% of popular vote like in 2019 what does that mean? How can they campaign on a single issue? If someone asks them about the NHS do they say Independence, if someone asks about housing do they say Independence etc.

The next few polls will be interesting, if the trend continues then it could set back Yes for years.

[Ozyhibby]

This is after Nicola Sturgeons grand plan. Only 39% of people when asked said Yes to Independence. I would imagine the majority of Don't Knows would fall into No as well. Even without the Don't Knows it's a clear victory for No.

https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1542780997418340352?t=9tgSo4lzxcFzg4ZEidYuSg&s=19

Scottish Independence Voting Intention:

NO: 46%
YES: 39%
Don't Know: 15%

Don't Know's excluded:

NO: 54%
YES: 46%

Via @techneUK, On 29-30 June.


On reflection I am delighted with Nicola Sturgeons plan, it's a desperate last throw of the dice so she can leave after the General Election and say "well I did all I could". She has made this all about her legacy, or lack of it.

I am still working out what a 'de facto' referendum actually means, if the SNP say get 45% of popular vote like in 2019 what does that mean? How can they campaign on a single issue? If someone asks them about the NHS do they say Independence, if someone asks about housing do they say Independence etc.

The next few polls will be interesting, if the trend continues then it could set back Yes for years.

And yet you don’t want a vote.[emoji23]


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[Jones28]

I can’t help but feel NS is totally misreading this.

[James310]

And yet you don’t want a vote.[emoji23]


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Not just me it seems.

[James310]

I can’t help but feel NS is totally misreading this.

I agree, she has maybe a few years left and her life ambition is obviously Independence, she is literally obsessed with it. She has been quoted as saying it transcends everything, think about that and what it means.

She asked to be judged on Education, well look how that's gone, the upcoming Covid Inquiry will I am sure be uncomfortable for all governments across the UK, she knows leaving in the next few years with no progress to Indy would be seen as an abject failure so has come up with this 'plan'. She wants people talking about this for the next 2 years so we don't talk about her record in government. She has made it all about her.

Cancer waiting times were the worst on record, is anyone talking about that? Or they talking about what a de facto referendum means etc.

People at moment are not waking up angry about democracy, they are waking up and wondering how they can pay bills or is there job safe etc.

[JeMeSouviens]

I can’t help but feel NS is totally misreading this.

Today's poll has a sample size of 500 (because it's a subsample from a UK wide poll) so a large margin of error, and is from a firm who afaik have never done a poll in Scotland, so there's no like for like comparison.

To suggest all the DKs in a poll would break to one side or the other is pure wishful thinking/deliberately stupid propaganda*.

We won't get any idea if this week's stuff has shifted the dial until we get a few more polls. I doubt it will make any difference. Nothing has really changed, Scotgov want a vote, there's no court decision as yet, etc. etc. A "de facto" referendum is by definition not a "de jure" referendum, so it's very unlikely to be the end of the story anyway.


* delete to taste.

[grunt]

I agree, she has maybe a few years left and her life ambition is obviously Independence, she is literally obsessed with it.
It's literally her job.

This from the guy with more than 500 posts on a thread about Scottish Independence on a football fans forum! :greengrin

[James310]

It's literally her job.

This from the guy with more than 500 posts on a thread about Scottish Independence on a football fans forum! :greengrin

Fair point! 🤣

It's one of her jobs, she acts like it's her only job at times. She is the FM of us all.

Maybe I am spectacularly wrong and this plan is the start of something, having looked at in more detail then I am not sure it is.

The fact the Alba types are delighted should tell you something. Although they seem to think she is going to declare UDI after an election, which she wouldn't.

I think she sees a Labour victory, and that's a big worry.

[Skol]

James I agree with you, but as with everything we are absolutely polarised in Scotland and its predictable which side we all come down on.

My view is that this is no more than a delaying tactic while giving the Independence support something to focus on as a positive. In reality we know 19/10/23 isnt happening and the Defacto GE isnt even possible. At best if SNP/Alba/Green get 50% +1 they could claim they have a mandate for a referendum. I know there will be claims of democracy being ignored and me not wanting a vote. I have said before and will again, we need a proper vote to get this sorted for the forseeable future.

My view is that Sturgeon should focus on two things:

1) The economic case needs to be outlined with an honest appraisal of the risks and how we will manage those

2) Show us competence in the powers currently held rather than focus on all these grievances

On the other side I would also like to see Westminster make a series of changes, but under the current government I know that will not happen sadly.

[Eaststand]

It's literally her job.

This from the guy with more than 500 posts on a thread about Scottish Independence on a football fans forum! :greengrin

Isn't it ironic that the poster you replied to mentions their perceived SNP obsession with independence. But the only obsession on view is the posters constant obsession with taking cheap shots attempting to discredit our Holyrood Government.

Their posts are getting more desperate by the day 😂

GGTTH

[Jones28]

I agree, she has maybe a few years left and her life ambition is obviously Independence, she is literally obsessed with it. She has been quoted as saying it transcends everything, think about that and what it means.

She asked to be judged on Education, well look how that's gone, the upcoming Covid Inquiry will I am sure be uncomfortable for all governments across the UK, she knows leaving in the next few years with no progress to Indy would be seen as an abject failure so has come up with this 'plan'. She wants people talking about this for the next 2 years so we don't talk about her record in government. She has made it all about her.

Cancer waiting times were the worst on record, is anyone talking about that? Or they talking about what a de facto referendum means etc.

People at moment are not waking up angry about democracy, they are waking up and wondering how they can pay bills or is there job safe etc.

Yeah no **** you agree.

I wake up angry at the lack of anything meaningful this Government are doing to ease the COLC, and our illustrious PM's latest episode of ridiculousness. Does that count?

[Kato]

I agree, she has maybe a few years left and her life ambition is obviously Independence, she is literally obsessed with it. She has been quoted as saying it transcends everything, think about that and what it means.

She asked to be judged on Education, well look how that's gone, the upcoming Covid Inquiry will I am sure be uncomfortable for all governments across the UK, she knows leaving in the next few years with no progress to Indy would be seen as an abject failure so has come up with this 'plan'. She wants people talking about this for the next 2 years so we don't talk about her record in government. She has made it all about her.

Cancer waiting times were the worst on record, is anyone talking about that? Or they talking about what a de facto referendum means etc.

People at moment are not waking up angry about democracy, they are waking up and wondering how they can pay bills or is there job safe etc."People". I like how you are telepathically linked to what "people" are thinking. Nice skill

Some "people" wish they had voted Yes in 2014 and we wouldn't be part of the circus we are currently in.

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[James310]

Isn't it ironic that the poster you replied to mentions their perceived SNP obsession with independence. But the only obsession on view is the posters constant obsession with taking cheap shots attempting to discredit our Holyrood Government.

Their posts are getting more desperate by the day 😂

GGTTH

Aren't the people in Scotland supposed to be critical of the Scottish government? When in Scotland did so many people become sycophants of the governing party?

Imagine if I came on and said to the people criticizing the Tory's on they huge Tory thread that they were getting desperate by taking cheap shots at the Tory government and trying to discredit them, people would rightly just laugh at me.

I understand for some criticism of the government is perceived as criticism of Indy, I have said before about 50% of SNP supporters take criticism of the government as a personal insult.

By all mean defend them with counter arguments if you can, but getting personal just brings the thread down to a petty level and people will soon drop off. You could go back to your comfortable echo chamber again though where nobody criticises the government, kind of like North Korea and Russia.

I am not saying Scotland is like that, but if we can't be seen to criticise the government then something is wrong.

[James310]

Yeah no **** you agree.

I wake up angry at the lack of anything meaningful this Government are doing to ease the COLC, and our illustrious PM's latest episode of ridiculousness. Does that count?

Sure it counts as that is day to day issues, the government need to do so much more and if they don't they will soon find themselves out of jobs.

[Jones28]

Sure it counts as that is day to day issues, the government need to do so much more and if they don't they will soon find themselves out of jobs.

But am I not allowed to think that the best way to escape this is for Scotland to be an Independent country? The UK government have ****ed up so badly that I honestly don't see it being any worse for a few years before things like EU membership is back on and we can open our doors to Europe again.

[The Modfather]

I agree, she has maybe a few years left and her life ambition is obviously Independence, she is literally obsessed with it. She has been quoted as saying it transcends everything, think about that and what it means.

She asked to be judged on Education, well look how that's gone, the upcoming Covid Inquiry will I am sure be uncomfortable for all governments across the UK, she knows leaving in the next few years with no progress to Indy would be seen as an abject failure so has come up with this 'plan'. She wants people talking about this for the next 2 years so we don't talk about her record in government. She has made it all about her.

Cancer waiting times were the worst on record, is anyone talking about that? Or they talking about what a de facto referendum means etc.

People at moment are not waking up angry about democracy, they are waking up and wondering how they can pay bills or is there job safe etc.

That’s not unique to Scottish people, a feeling felt in all corners of the UK. If independence isn’t the answer what is the answer from within the union to change the day to day worries in the here and now?

[Eaststand]

Aren't the people in Scotland supposed to be critical of the Scottish government? When in Scotland did so many people become sycophants of the governing party?

Imagine if I came on and said to the people criticizing the Tory's on they huge Tory thread that they were getting desperate by taking cheap shots at the Tory government and trying to discredit them, people would rightly just laugh at me.

I understand for some criticism of the government is perceived as criticism of Indy, I have said before about 50% of SNP supporters take criticism of the government as a personal insult.

By all mean defend them with counter arguments if you can, but getting personal just brings the thread down to a petty level and people will soon drop off. You could go back to your comfortable echo chamber again though where nobody criticises the government, kind of like North Korea and Russia.

I am not saying Scotland is like that, but if we can't be seen to criticise the government then something is wrong.

Healthy debate is a very good thing, but this constant negativity, and attempts at petty point scoring against the SNP party and our elected government is absolutely pathetic.

I've got things to do and I don't have all day to post an avalanche of messages or read silly messages criticising the SNP, so don't bother replying to this as I'll probably not read it. 😉

GGTTH

[James310]

My view is that this is no more than a delaying tactic while giving the Independence support something to focus on as a positive. In reality we know 19/10/23 isnt happening and the Defacto GE isnt even possible.

I think you nail it here. Some Indy supporters seem happy as it galvanises support for the next few years, but I have already seen quite a bit of criticism (imagine that) from her own supporters who can see this really only benefits her and the MPs who will get elected for another 5 years at Westminster.

[James310]

Healthy debate is a very good thing, but this constant negativity, and attempts at petty point scoring against the SNP party and our elected government is absolutely pathetic.

I've got things to do and I don't have all day to post an avalanche of silly point scoring messages, so don't bother replying to this as I'll probably not read it. 😉

GGTTH

Lol, imagine me posting this on the Tory thread..


"but this constant negativity, and attempts at petty point scoring against the Conservative party and our elected government is absolutely pathetic."

I would rightly be ridiculed and probably be asked to leave by mutual consent.

[Jones28]

Lol, imagine me posting this on the Tory thread..


"but this constant negativity, and attempts at petty point scoring against the Conservative party and our elected government is absolutely pathetic."

I would rightly be ridiculed and probably be asked to leave by mutual consent.

I don't see the SNP Government failing anything like the way the Tories in Westminster are.

[James310]

I don't see the SNP Government failing anything like the way the Tories in Westminster are.

This Tory government are failing at most things so it's not a great badge of honour.

[Kato]

I don't see the SNP Government failing anything like the way the Tories in Westminster are.There is no pettiness or point scoring against the Tory Party. Their ****Show is for real and most comments are just reportage.

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[lapsedhibee]

Lol, imagine me posting this on the Tory thread..


"but this constant negativity, and attempts at petty point scoring against the Conservative party and our elected government is absolutely pathetic."

I would rightly be ridiculed and probably be asked to leave by mutual consent.

The repeated attempts to establish a sort of equivalence between UKGov and ScotGov are getting a bit desperate now, don't you think?

[James310]

But am I not allowed to think that the best way to escape this is for Scotland to be an Independent country? The UK government have ****ed up so badly that I honestly don't see it being any worse for a few years before things like EU membership is back on and we can open our doors to Europe again.

When did I say you can't think Independence is the best way forward for Scotland?

As we said a few days back getting in the EU won't be a bed of roses either. It will be painful but you think it will be worth it.

[Jones28]

When did I say you can't think Independence is the best way forward for Scotland?

As we said a few days back getting in the EU won't be a bed of roses either. It will be painful but you think it will be worth it.


You've said as much, you're effectively saying that you can't think about day-to-day issues and think about independence at the same time...or does that only apply to the Scottish Gov?

We've seen it's worth it. The fact it will be worth it is jumping up and down on the governments face but they're too blinkered to admit it.

[Jones28]

This Tory government are failing at most things so it's not a great badge of honour.

There's nothing the SNP could do to convince you otherwise, I really don't see why you're bothering to maintain your position here. There's a new thread dedicated to support for the union.

[CropleyWasGod]

What's to stop Westminster saying "you can have your S30, but the referendum has to be held within 3 months"?

IMO, that's what they should have said last time it was asked for

[James310]

There's nothing the SNP could do to convince you otherwise, I really don't see why you're bothering to maintain your position here. There's a new thread dedicated to support for the union.

Lol, and you seem so open to the counter arguments.

So just leave this thread for Independence supporters to talk about how great Independence is, that would be boring.

[James310]

What's to stop Westminster saying "you can have your S30, but the referendum has to be held within 3 months"?

IMO, that's what they should have said last time it was asked for

Nothing I guess, I suspect both sides would panic at that prospect though.

What's stopping Nicola Sturgeon dissolving the Scottish Parliament and calling a Scottish Election in 6 weeks or however long it takes and calling it a de facto referendum? Strengthen her position and even perhaps get an overall majority like Salmond did.

[Ozyhibby]

Nothing I guess, I suspect both sides would panic at that prospect though.

What's stopping Nicola Sturgeon dissolving the Scottish Parliament and calling a Scottish Election in 6 weeks or however long it takes and calling it a de facto referendum? Strengthen her position and even perhaps get an overall majority like Salmond did.

It’s a very different voting system that doesn’t lend itself to binary choices?


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[CropleyWasGod]

Nothing I guess, I suspect both sides would panic at that prospect though.

What's stopping Nicola Sturgeon dissolving the Scottish Parliament and calling a Scottish Election in 6 weeks or however long it takes and calling it a de facto referendum? Strengthen her position and even perhaps get an overall majority like Salmond did.

The Greens would stop it. They can't afford another election so soon, and would vote against it, along with every other party.

[Ozyhibby]

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/only-a-progressive-alliance-can-rid-us-of-these-morally-bankrupt-liars/

No really about Indy but Mason’s description of what the UK has become is spot on. And I don’t think he knows how to get out of it.


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[Moulin Yarns]

There's nothing the SNP could do to convince you otherwise, I really don't see why you're bothering to maintain your position here. There's a new thread dedicated to support for the union.

Not much interest in that thread as it has slipped to 18th on the board.

[Jack]

This is after Nicola Sturgeons grand plan. Only 39% of people when asked said Yes to Independence. I would imagine the majority of Don't Knows would fall into No as well. Even without the Don't Knows it's a clear victory for No.

https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1542780997418340352?t=9tgSo4lzxcFzg4ZEidYuSg&s=19

Scottish Independence Voting Intention:

NO: 46%
YES: 39%
Don't Know: 15%

Don't Know's excluded:

NO: 54%
YES: 46%

Via @techneUK, On 29-30 June.


On reflection I am delighted with Nicola Sturgeons plan, it's a desperate last throw of the dice so she can leave after the General Election and say "well I did all I could". She has made this all about her legacy, or lack of it.

I am still working out what a 'de facto' referendum actually means, if the SNP say get 45% of popular vote like in 2019 what does that mean? How can they campaign on a single issue? If someone asks them about the NHS do they say Independence, if someone asks about housing do they say Independence etc.

The next few polls will be interesting, if the trend continues then it could set back Yes for years.

I'm sure I've asked before but what do you know about the website this poll comes from?

[James310]

The Greens would stop it. They can't afford another election so soon, and would vote against it, along with every other party.

I suspect the Greens will do as they are told. For so called partners they had no prior site of what Nicola Sturgeon was announcing on Tuesday. But they are riding high in the polls, they could potentially increase their vote share as well and get more seats.

It would just need the SNP/Greens majority that is there today to make it happen.

[James310]

I'm sure I've asked before but what do you know about the website this poll comes from?

https://twitter.com/techneUK/status/1542780322630213632?t=zaYXQQcLbvcDz8gEB07v8A&s=19

[CropleyWasGod]

I suspect the Greens will do as they are told. For so called partners they had no prior site of what Nicola Sturgeon was announcing on Tuesday. But they are riding high in the polls, they could potentially increase their vote share as well and get more seats.

It would just need the SNP/Greens majority that is there today to make it happen.

They can't afford it.

[The Modfather]

That’s not unique to Scottish people, a feeling felt in all corners of the UK. If independence isn’t the answer what is the answer from within the union to change the day to day worries in the here and now?

You missed my post again James. If I was a more cynical man I’d say you often miss posts when you’re the one being asked questions about the union and the here and now, and not the one doing the asking or scrutinising independence.

Fortunately I’m not cynical and assume you innocently missed the question.

[Skol]

Nothing I guess, I suspect both sides would panic at that prospect though.

What's stopping Nicola Sturgeon dissolving the Scottish Parliament and calling a Scottish Election in 6 weeks or however long it takes and calling it a de facto referendum? Strengthen her position and even perhaps get an overall majority like Salmond did.

I don’t think sturgeon can do that. It’s a fixed four years or five if it would clash with a gE.

[Skol]

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/only-a-progressive-alliance-can-rid-us-of-these-morally-bankrupt-liars/

No really about Indy but Mason’s description of what the UK has become is spot on. And I don’t think he knows how to get out of it.


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That’s a pretty good summary of where we are. We need to get the current lit out.

[James310]

I don’t think sturgeon can do that. It’s a fixed four years or five if it would clash with a gE.

She can resign as FM, if no FM is elected in 30 days then a new election is required. So actually I am not sure the Greens would have any say in it, so nothing stopping it happening if she wanted to do it.

[Moulin Yarns]

She can resign as FM, if no FM is elected in 30 days then a new election is required. So actually I am not sure the Greens would have any say in it, so nothing stopping it happening if she wanted to do it.

I see that the cuckoo's are gathering on the clouds 😉


Edit, maybe a vote of confidence is required?!

[James310]

I see that the cuckoo's are gathering on the clouds 😉

Just saying nothing stopping this, if she thinks it would strengthen her position and perhaps get a bigger vote share and an overall majority then that would help put pressure on the UK Government, isn't that the point of using the UK Election as a de facto referendum.

Maybe she thinks the vote share would go down?

I don't think she would do it, but if she was confident that it would help Independence I am sure she would.

[wookie70]

The Greens would stop it. They can't afford another election so soon, and would vote against it, along with every other party.

If the SNP primarily cared about Indi rather than power they could ask for 1st vote SNP and 2nd vote Green(as they should have last time) and then Indi parties would completely dominate the Parliament. That may convince the Greens it was a good idea and also prove how much Independence means to the SNP MSPs.

[heretoday]

I can’t help but feel NS is totally misreading this.

She's in a hurry. Is she thinking of retiring soon?

[CropleyWasGod]

She can resign as FM, if no FM is elected in 30 days then a new election is required. So actually I am not sure the Greens would have any say in it, so nothing stopping it happening if she wanted to do it.

It's the Parliament that elects the FM, not the party.

If she stood down, any other MSP could stand.

[CropleyWasGod]

If the SNP primarily cared about Indi rather than power they could ask for 1st vote SNP and 2nd vote Green(as they should have last time) and then Indi parties would completely dominate the Parliament. That may convince the Greens it was a good idea and also prove how much Independence means to the SNP MSPs.

The Greens don't have the money to fight another election so soon 🙂

[James310]

It's the Parliament that elects the FM, not the party.

If she stood down, any other MSP could stand.

All true , but if she stood down and she then instructed her MSPs to vote down anyone else then nobody would win, it's not like the Greens would vote for Douglas Ross/Anas Sarwar/ACH to be FM would they?

The other parties would not have enough votes to beat the SNP/Greens.

So in theory nothing at all stopping this happening.

[Moulin Yarns]

All true , but if she stood down and she then instructed her MSPs to vote down anyone else then nobody would win, it's not like the Greens would vote for Douglas Ross/Anas Sarwar/ACH to be FM would they?

The other parties would not have enough votes to beat the SNP/Greens.

So in theory nothing at all stopping this happening.

This is the absolute definition of straw clutching, IMHO

[CropleyWasGod]

All true , but if she stood down and she then instructed her MSPs to vote down anyone else then nobody would win, it's not like the Greens would vote for Douglas Ross/Anas Sarwar/ACH to be FM would they?

The other parties would not have enough votes to beat the SNP/Greens.

So in theory nothing at all stopping this happening.

In that eventuality, the Presiding Officer appoints an interim FM.

[Steven79]

In that eventuality, the Presiding Officer appoints an interim FM.And she would offer it to either an SNP or Green MSP that could refuse it.

The only way out of the stalemate would be an election.

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[CropleyWasGod]

And she would offer it to either an SNP or Green MSP that could refuse it.

The only way out of the stalemate would be an election.

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An election which..pressing play 😄.. the Greens couldn't afford .

[Moulin Yarns]

And she would offer it to either an SNP or Green MSP that could refuse it.

The only way out of the stalemate would be an election.

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What stalemate? :confused:

[Moulin Yarns]

James I agree with you, but as with everything we are absolutely polarised in Scotland and its predictable which side we all come down on.

My view is that this is no more than a delaying tactic while giving the Independence support something to focus on as a positive. In reality we know 19/10/23 isnt happening and the Defacto GE isnt even possible. At best if SNP/Alba/Green get 50% +1 they could claim they have a mandate for a referendum. I know there will be claims of democracy being ignored and me not wanting a vote. I have said before and will again, we need a proper vote to get this sorted for the forseeable future.

My view is that Sturgeon should focus on two things:

1) The economic case needs to be outlined with an honest appraisal of the risks and how we will manage those

2) Show us competence in the powers currently held rather than focus on all these grievances

On the other side I would also like to see Westminster make a series of changes, but under the current government I know that will not happen sadly.


You have some insight to both Johnson and the Supreme Court?

As the Pro-independence parties already has a majority then there is a mandate?

[Ozyhibby]

And she would offer it to either an SNP or Green MSP that could refuse it.

The only way out of the stalemate would be an election.

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It’s not going to happen. The election system just doesn’t suit a binary choice on independence. The SNP have chosen their strategy. No point arguing over what might have been.


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[James310]

In that eventuality, the Presiding Officer appoints an interim FM.

For how long could an interim FM stay in place?

They can only recommend I thought?

(4)The Presiding Officer shall recommend to Her Majesty the appointment of any member of the Parliament who is nominated by the Parliament under this section.

So still needs nominated by Parliament?

Anyway, if no SNP or Green MSP accepted the role then it would be stalemate, imagine the scenes if she appointed Douglas Ross.

Anyway if she wanted it to happen it could happen.

[JeMeSouviens]

And she would offer it to either an SNP or Green MSP that could refuse it.

The only way out of the stalemate would be an election.

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It would be a bit of a weird strategy to announce an indyref date and application to the supreme court to test its legality and then call a Scottish election before you get the result. :confused:

[Moulin Yarns]

For how long could an interim FM stay in place?

They can only recommend I thought?

(4)The Presiding Officer shall recommend to Her Majesty the appointment of any member of the Parliament who is nominated by the Parliament under this section.

So still needs nominated by Parliament?

Anyway, if no SNP or Green MSP accepted the role then it would be stalemate, imagine the scenes if she appointed Douglas Ross.

Anyway if she wanted it to happen it could happen.

I'm at a loss as to why you are pursuing this? Totally hypothetical situation that is very unlikely to happen. your best case scenario is surely a vote of confidence?

[Moulin Yarns]

It would be a bit of a weird strategy to announce an indyref date and application to the supreme court to test its legality and then call a Scottish election before you get the result. :confused:

It's almost like the final attempt to get a pro-union majority at Holyrood :faf::faf::faf::faf:

[James310]

An election which..pressing play 😄.. the Greens couldn't afford .

I don't think that comes into it, under these circumstances they have no choice. If an election is triggered then an election is triggered.

[James310]

I'm at a loss as to why you are pursuing this? Totally hypothetical situation that is very unlikely to happen. your best case scenario is surely a vote of confidence?

I don't think it will happen, just saying if she wants to put pressure on the UK Gov then having a larger vote share and an overall majority would surely help her.

A vote of confidence would be pointless.

[CropleyWasGod]

For how long could an interim FM stay in place?

They can only recommend I thought?

(4)The Presiding Officer shall recommend to Her Majesty the appointment of any member of the Parliament who is nominated by the Parliament under this section.

So still needs nominated by Parliament?

Anyway, if no SNP or Green MSP accepted the role then it would be stalemate, imagine the scenes if she appointed Douglas Ross.

Anyway if she wanted it to happen it could happen.

Any nomination, interim or permanent, by the Parliament is "recommended " to the Queen. She makes the actual appointment .

You're going down a theoretical blind alley. 🙃