Scottish Independence

[Jack]

Ssshhh!!!! Let them officially announce Gove and Brown as the dream team before we criticise. [emoji6][emoji23]


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Its maybe not a good analogy. Look at how many Brexit ministers the the torys went through (6 I think) before they eventually screwed it up completely with other tory ministers chipping in to compound the incompetence.

[G B Young]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2021/01/24/spite-independence-plan-civil-war-sturgeon-salmond-damaging/

[Ozyhibby]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2021/01/24/spite-independence-plan-civil-war-sturgeon-salmond-damaging/

Behind the paywall but I’m sure that Cochrane is his usual pro Indy self.[emoji849]


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[JeMeSouviens]

Behind the paywall but I’m sure that Cochrane is his usual pro Indy self.[emoji849]


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With the possible exception of Ian Smart, the ultimate bitter old Brit. :greengrin

[SHODAN]

Goggs Broon on sky now using Orwell to describe the SNP. If this is the best Better Together 2 can muster then the union is doomed.

They are so out of touch it's unbelievable.

[Keith_M]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2021/01/24/spite-independence-plan-civil-war-sturgeon-salmond-damaging/


The Telegraph, the newspaper that thought Boris Johnson was a journalist.

[CropleyWasGod]

Behind the paywall but I’m sure that Cochrane is his usual pro Indy self.[emoji849]


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The morning of the 2014 referendum, he had an enormous Union Flag hanging out of his window. :greengrin

[StevieC]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2021/01/24/spite-independence-plan-civil-war-sturgeon-salmond-damaging/

Paywall.. can’t read it .. not a huge disappointment if I’m honest

[lucky]

The only way Scotland will vote for independence is through a legal referendum. No other way will be accepted by the people. I appreciate that many on here are long term Nats and see it as the right of the largest party in Holyrood to call the shots. But anything other than a legal referendum is doomed to failure. I do believe that Holyrood should have the power to decide to call a referendum but that’s not case just now.

[Keith_M]

The only way Scotland will vote for independence is through a legal referendum. No other way will be accepted by the people. I appreciate that many on here are long term Nats and see it as the right of the largest party in Holyrood to call the shots. But anything other than a legal referendum is doomed to failure. I do believe that Holyrood should have the power to decide to call a referendum but that’s not case just now.


I agree.

If the SNP hold an 'unofficial' Referendum, then the simplest way to defeat it is for No voters to refuse to participate, which would make it invalid.

The Referendum in Catalonia had this problem, so I'd hate to think they would be silly enough to repeat that in Scotland.

[Ozyhibby]

The only way Scotland will vote for independence is through a legal referendum. No other way will be accepted by the people. I appreciate that many on here are long term Nats and see it as the right of the largest party in Holyrood to call the shots. But anything other than a legal referendum is doomed to failure. I do believe that Holyrood should have the power to decide to call a referendum but that’s not case just now.

I agree. It’s very important that we do this the right way. I agree with NS though that Johnson will eventually cave and agree to a referendum because the alternative is ending democracy in Scotland.


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[Ozyhibby]

I agree.

If the SNP hold an 'unofficial' Referendum, then the simplest way to defeat it is for No voters to refuse to participate, which would make it invalid.

The Referendum in Catalonia had this problem, so I'd hate to think they would be silly enough to repeat that in Scotland.

They won’t do that. The will legislate at Holyrood for a referendum, making it a legal referendum. It’s then up to the UK govt to challenge it through the courts. Boycotting won’t be an option.
If the UK win the court case then there won’t be a referendum. If I was the SNP then at that point I would dissolve the Scottish Parliament and go back to the polls.


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[Keith_M]

They won’t do that. The will legislate at Holyrood for a referendum, making it a legal referendum. It’s then up to the UK govt to challenge it through the courts. Boycotting won’t be an option.
If the UK win the court case then there won’t be a referendum. If I was the SNP then at that point I would dissolve the Scottish Parliament and go back to the polls.


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The idea of an unofficial referendum is being pushed by some independence supporters, if the request is turned down by Westminster, but I think you're right, I can't see Sturgeon et-al going along with that.

[DaveF]

The morning of the 2014 referendum, he had an enormous Union Flag hanging out of his window. :greengrin

Learmonth Terrace per chance? I remember driving to work that morning and saw a huge Union flag from one of the flats near where the learmonth hotel used to be.

[CropleyWasGod]

Learmonth Terrace per chance? I remember driving to work that morning and saw a huge Union flag from one of the flats near where the learmonth hotel used to be.

Nah.

Don't want to give away personal stuff, but it's a couple of miles away from that. I remember thinking at the time that the house is on 2 levels, and set back from the road, so there's little chance of anyone tanning his windaes. :greengrin

[JeMeSouviens]

There is a difference between "legal" and "agreed".

For the 2014 indyref, the UK govt agreed to implement the result and gave Holyrood the temporary power (via a section 30 order) to legislate to that effect.

For indyref2, Scotgov would like to repeat that process. But, they have now said that if the UK gov doesn't play ball, they will legislate for an advisory referendum, where nobody is committed to implementing the result. Although obviously Scotgov will seek to if it's a Yes.

The constitution is reserved, so Scotgov cannot implement constitutional change. However, an advisory referendum to test the view of Scots on the matter, does not by itself change the constitution. I'm sure the UK gov would challenge its legality, but it's by no means certain they'd win.

A "legal" but not "agreed" referendum is therefore a distinct possibility.

[Ozyhibby]

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/scottish-tories-urge-labour-lib-23379562.amp?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar&__twitter_impression=true

Ross wants to boycott. That position won’t hold. Besides, will he still be leader if they lose heavily in May?


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[Callum_62]

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/scottish-tories-urge-labour-lib-23379562.amp?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar&__twitter_impression=true

Ross wants to boycott. That position won’t hold. Besides, will he still be leader if they lose heavily in May?


Sent from my iPhone using TapatalkSo it's divisive but Boris Johnson can just keep saying na to our official requests - surely that's more divisive?

The polls are showing a majority of people want it, the question should be for Ross et al is why are you and your party dismissing that

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[Ozyhibby]

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/gordon-brown-s-plan-to-save-the-union-won-t-wash/amp?__twitter_impression=true

Why Brown is lying when he talks of federalism. He knows it would never work in England and if it doesn’t work for England it won’t happen. He knows this but promotes it anyway.


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[GlesgaeHibby]

They won’t do that. The will legislate at Holyrood for a referendum, making it a legal referendum. It’s then up to the UK govt to challenge it through the courts. Boycotting won’t be an option.
If the UK win the court case then there won’t be a referendum. If I was the SNP then at that point I would dissolve the Scottish Parliament and go back to the polls.


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2/3 majority needed to dissolve Scottish parliament. (Or resignation of first minister).

Question then is whether the unionist parties would oppose to try and stop indy.

[Ozyhibby]

2/3 majority needed to dissolve Scottish parliament. (Or resignation of first minister).

Question then is whether the unionist parties would oppose to try and stop indy.

Be weird situation for the Tories and Labour to vote to keep an SNP govt.


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[Ozyhibby]

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/13842512/boris-visit-scotland-nicola-sturgeon-gordon-brown-uk/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

The union is set to be saved.


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[JeMeSouviens]

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/13842512/boris-visit-scotland-nicola-sturgeon-gordon-brown-uk/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

The union is set to be saved.


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:greengrin Union saved - tick!

I think he should pencil in a weekly visit tbh. :wink:

[ronaldo7]

Travel ban :rolleyes:

[Keith_M]

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/13842512/boris-visit-scotland-nicola-sturgeon-gordon-brown-uk/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

The union is set to be saved.


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"He is expected to use the trip to make an impassioned plea for Scots to reject narrow separatism"


Oh the irony!


:rotflmao:

[degenerated]

Behind the paywall but I’m sure that Cochrane is his usual pro Indy self.[emoji849]


Sent from my iPhone using TapatalkIs he not the one that was on a bonus from the barclay brothers if there was a no vote.

[greenlex]

I see coronavirus briefings seem to have become fair game as a unionist platform. Angry doesn’t cover it.

[Ozyhibby]

I see coronavirus briefings seem to have become fair game as a unionist platform. Angry doesn’t cover it.

And they’ll be back complaining about NS doing a briefing tomorrow.


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[DaveF]

I see coronavirus briefings seem to have become fair game as a unionist platform. Angry doesn’t cover it.

I heard Hancock giving the union the big cheer but did not hear the question. I'm assuming it was a freebie from a friendly journo?

[degenerated]

I heard Hancock giving the union the big cheer but did not hear the question. I'm assuming it was a freebie from a friendly journo?Wonder if they'll cut away early to let nicola Sturgeon critique it like bbc shortbread does up here.

[HibernianJK]

I think it’s quite clear now that the UK govt knows fine well it can’t oppose a second indyref if there’s a pro indy majority in May.

They seems to be *trying* to get ahead of the curve with regards to convincing people how good a job the union is doing at the moment.

[Ozyhibby]

I think it’s quite clear now that the UK govt knows fine well it can’t oppose a second indyref if there’s a pro indy majority in May.

They seems to be *trying* to get ahead of the curve with regards to convincing people how good a job the union is doing at the moment.

In the middle of a pandemic and all they can think about is campaigning for the union.[emoji849]


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[cabbageandribs1875]

In the middle of a pandemic and all they can think about is campaigning for the union.[emoji849]


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is hypocrite Dross commenting on this, maybe he will tell us his thoughts after he's managed to get his beak out of johnson's erky

[ronaldo7]

A nice piece about where we currently are.

https://www.scer.scot/database/ident-13005

[StevieC]

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/13842512/boris-visit-scotland-nicola-sturgeon-gordon-brown-uk/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

The union is set to be saved.


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Will he be making the plea directly to Nationalists on a public platform .. or will it be in a church hall with a dozen Conservatives (in the 60-90 age bracket) present with A3 sized Union flag posters?

[CloudSquall]

I imagine he'll be airdropped to a Tory zone in the North East where Douglas Dross and Andrew Bowie along with a select group of 90 year old farmers will act like 14 year old BTS fans for a grand total of 30 minutes before he crosses back over the border.

[Jones28]

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/13842512/boris-visit-scotland-nicola-sturgeon-gordon-brown-uk/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

The union is set to be saved.


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Does such a pointless endeavour count as essential travel?

[Kato]

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/13842512/boris-visit-scotland-nicola-sturgeon-gordon-brown-uk/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

The union is set to be saved.


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Serious statement from Sillydays.

He said: “But perhaps for too long we have left unstated the shared purpose and values that bind the UK together, and we have said too little about what we have in common - our shared beliefs in tolerance, liberty, civic responsibility and fairness, and our conviction that all benefit when we pool and share risks and resources across the country.”

[degenerated]

Will he be making the plea directly to Nationalists on a public platform .. or will it be in a church hall with a dozen Conservatives (in the 60-90 age bracket) present with A3 sized Union flag posters?Now he's shafted the fishermen and farmers then it's a toss up between Baxters factory or the Loudon tavern.

[lapsedhibee]

Now he's shafted the fishermen and farmers then it's a toss up between Baxters factory or the Loudon tavern.

Important to know where he's going, so that Johnson Blimps can be organised.

[Ozyhibby]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-55803103?__twitter_impression=true


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[Bostonhibby]

The deputy leader of the Brexit negotiations moves on to saving the union. What chance does the SNP have now!Probably end up with a fantastic, world beating vague Brexit arrangement where none of the infrastructure has been done and the planning is being invented after the event

As security carts him off in a straight jacket, someone will have to whisper in his ear that they already "got brexit done".

Scotland has much to look forward to.

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[Ozyhibby]

A nice piece about where we currently are.

https://www.scer.scot/database/ident-13005

Enjoyed that. There is much to be optimistic about an independent Scotland within the EU.


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[Hibrandenburg]

Enjoyed that. There is much to be optimistic about an independent Scotland within the EU.


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This wee blog also puts some interesting statistics together. I found it in a group of pro Scottish independence English people living in Scotland.

https://macalbasite.wordpress.com/2021/01/25/scotland-the-wealthiest-country-in-europe-truth-exposed/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

[Ozyhibby]

https://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/columnists/could-scotland-stage-independence-referendum-without-uk-approval-what-law-says-3111687?r=3662

Really interesting article on the legal case for a referendum.


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[Bristolhibby]

Ready for another panicked trip North for the PM.

https://twitter.com/neilslorance/status/1353818909175119875?s=21

[Hibrandenburg]

https://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/columnists/could-scotland-stage-independence-referendum-without-uk-approval-what-law-says-3111687?r=3662

Really interesting article on the legal case for a referendum.


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:agree: Puts to bed the comparison between Catalonia and Scotland.

[JeMeSouviens]

Not sure what thread this belongs in, but for the diminshing band of Labour "stick with the Union and we'll see you right" types ...

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 42% (+2)
LAB: 37% (-1)
LDEM: 8% (-)
GRN: 4% (-1)
RE***: 3% (+1)

via @RedfieldWilton, 25 Jan
Chgs. w/ 18 Jan


WTAF?!??!!!


Edit - I see the swear filter has been updated to handle the new Farageistas :wink:

[Jones28]

Not sure what thread this belongs in, but for the diminshing band of Labour "stick with the Union and we'll see you right" types ...

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 42% (+2)
LAB: 37% (-1)
LDEM: 8% (-)
GRN: 4% (-1)
RE***: 3% (+1)

via @RedfieldWilton, 25 Jan
Chgs. w/ 18 Jan


WTAF?!??!!!


Edit - I see the swear filter has been updated to handle the new Farageistas :wink:

Who are these ****ing people who are voting Conservative?!

[JeMeSouviens]

Who are these ****ing people who are voting Conservative?!

Well indeed. Lab+Lib+Grn need to get their **** together, form an electoral pact and push through some kind of electoral reform to introduce PR. It's utterly bananas to stand back and let the Tories continually **** everything up on low-40s % of the vote. Decade after ******g decade of it. :rolleyes:

[Ozyhibby]

Who are these ****ing people who are voting Conservative?!

Well if you live in Scotland then it’s unlikely you know many of them.


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[Kato]

Who are these ****ing people who are voting Conservative?!An ideological Govt with a core support who are been subjected to radicalisation for 5 or 6 years. Hardly surprising.

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[Keith_M]

Well if you live in Scotland then it’s unlikely you know many of them.

...


The Conservatives received 25% of the votes in Scotland in 2019.

That's 6.5% more than voted for Labour.

Sad but true.

[Hibrandenburg]

Ready for another panicked trip North for the PM.

https://twitter.com/neilslorance/status/1353818909175119875?s=21

I'm hearing he's doing a poetry recital to save the Union.



The Scotch – what a verminous race!

Canny, pushy, chippy, they’re all over the place, Battening off us with false bonhomie, Polluting our stock, undermining our*economy.

Down with sandy hair and knobbly knees!

Suppress the tartan dwarves and the Wee Frees!

Ban the kilt, the skean-dhu and the sporran

As provocatively, offensively foreign!

It’s time Hadrian’s Wall was refortified

To pen them in a ghetto on the other side.

I would go further. The nation

Deserves not merely isolation

But comprehensive extermination.

We must not flinch from a solution.

[cabbageandribs1875]

Now he's shafted the fishermen and farmers then it's a toss up between Baxters factory or the Loudon tavern.


:hilarious

[JimBHibees]

Is he not the one that was on a bonus from the barclay brothers if there was a no vote.

If it is the Telegraph then yes

[Chorley Hibee]

Now he's shafted the fishermen and farmers then it's a toss up between Baxters factory or the Loudon tavern.

Can't imagine the Loudon Tavern are happy with the united Ireland he's helping to engineer. 😂

[ronaldo7]

I imagine he'll be airdropped to a Tory zone in the North East where Douglas Dross and Andrew Bowie along with a select group of 90 year old farmers will act like 14 year old BTS fans for a grand total of 30 minutes before he crosses back over the border.

Im going for a whisky distillery, with either a red arrows fly past, or a couple of spitfires dive bombing SNP hq.

[One Day Soon]

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/scottish-tories-urge-labour-lib-23379562.amp?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar&__twitter_impression=true

Ross wants to boycott. That position won’t hold. Besides, will he still be leader if they lose heavily in May?


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Yes, it will hold. Any such referendum will be boycotted.

[Ozyhibby]

Yes, it will hold. Any such referendum will be boycotted.

Not if it’s legal it won’t be.


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[One Day Soon]

Not if it’s legal it won’t be.


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Trust me, it absolutely will.

[Radium]

Yes, it will hold. Any such referendum will be boycotted.

After the Daily Record asked whether they would take part in a consultative, non-binding referendum organised by Holyrood, if one was ruled legal by a court, a party spokesman said: “No. The last thing that Scotland needs is another divisive independence referendum. The top priorities of the Scottish Conservatives and people across Scotland are fighting the pandemic, saving jobs and rebuilding Scotland stronger after this crisis. The SNP’s push to divide the country all over again as early as next year is reckless.”

The exact question and answer from the article. The boycott would not be of some gerrymandered poll but of one held to be legal. Opposition to Independence is a valid position, simply ignoring legal referendums because they don’t suit is political pantomime.

Brexit referendum is discussed elsewhere but in terms of the impact on the 2014 result is pivotal. Losing our relationship with Europe was a big play by Unionists which was overturned by the referendum decision to leave the EU.


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[One Day Soon]

After the Daily Record asked whether they would take part in a consultative, non-binding referendum organised by Holyrood, if one was ruled legal by a court, a party spokesman said: “No. The last thing that Scotland needs is another divisive independence referendum. The top priorities of the Scottish Conservatives and people across Scotland are fighting the pandemic, saving jobs and rebuilding Scotland stronger after this crisis. The SNP’s push to divide the country all over again as early as next year is reckless.”

The exact question and answer from the article. The boycott would not be of some gerrymandered poll but of one held to be legal. Opposition to Independence is a valid position, simply ignoring legal referendums because they don’t suit is political pantomime.

Brexit referendum is discussed elsewhere but in terms of the impact on the 2014 result is pivotal. Losing our relationship with Europe was a big play by Unionists which was overturned by the referendum decision to leave the EU.


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Legal but non-binding is utterly pointless, a gimmick designed as red meat for a divided nationalist party. It will be boycotted.

[JeMeSouviens]

Legal but non-binding is utterly pointless, a gimmick designed as red meat for a divided nationalist party. It will be boycotted.

You are aware that was precisely the status of the Brexit ref?

[weecounty hibby]

You can imagine the greeting if a referendum is deemed legal, goes ahead, the unionists boycot, yes win, goes to court deemed OK again, yes validated and the unionists all moan thatbits not fair because they didn't take part. I keep hearing from unionists that Scotland will vote no again. Well you know what, let's put it to the test. If the union is so wonderful then make the case, change the opinions of the now majority in Scotland. But stop denying democracy and what now appears to be the will of the majority to at the very least put the question to the Scottish public

[JeMeSouviens]

You can imagine the greeting if a referendum is deemed legal, goes ahead, the unionists boycot, yes win, goes to court deemed OK again, yes validated and the unionists all moan thatbits not fair because they didn't take part. I keep hearing from unionists that Scotland will vote no again. Well you know what, let's put it to the test. If the union is so wonderful then make the case, change the opinions of the now majority in Scotland. But stop denying democracy and what now appears to be the will of the majority to at the very least put the question to the Scottish public

Not having the vote because they think they'll lose is a guaranteed way of making the eventual loss even more inevitable.

[lapsedhibee]

You can imagine the greeting if a referendum is deemed legal, goes ahead, the unionists boycot, yes win, goes to court deemed OK again, yes validated and the unionists all moan thatbits not fair because they didn't take part. I keep hearing from unionists that Scotland will vote no again. Well you know what, let's put it to the test. If the union is so wonderful then make the case, change the opinions of the now majority in Scotland. But stop denying democracy and what now appears to be the will of the majority to at the very least put the question to the Scottish public

Shirley unionists are losing the plot if they think that boycotting a vote is a way to get the result they want.

[Ozyhibby]

Johnson will sign a s30 anyway. They will realise that a court will side with our right to self determination over the Scotland act. International law will win in the end.


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[Ozyhibby]

Shirley unionists are losing the plot if they think that boycotting a vote is a way to get the result they want.

Try not to discourage them too much.[emoji6]


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[weecounty hibby]

Shirley unionists are losing the plot if they think that boycotting a vote is a way to get the result they want.

Totally agree but that is the desperation stage that they are at. As I say, if the union is so great, prove it. Make me change my mind.

[Radium]

Legal but non-binding is utterly pointless, a gimmick designed as red meat for a divided nationalist party. It will be boycotted.

A peaceful, lawful and democratic process designed to give full expression to the public ...

... or the denial of a democratic right to self determination by a party with little political stake in Scotland just because they can.

As the question goes, what is the path to a a political vote? If the answer is 40 years, why do we vote for governments so often?

Dummies will be spat but results will be there for the world to see.


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[Kato]

Shirley unionists are losing the plot if they think that boycotting a vote is a way to get the result they want.

From Project Fear to Project Fingers-in-the-ears.

[lapsedhibee]

From Project Fear to Project Fingers-in-the-ears.

:greengrin

[lapsedhibee]

Totally agree but that is the desperation stage that they are at. As I say, if the union is so great, prove it. Make me change my mind.

Not sure there's anyone in the current UK government even capable of constructing the argument. Maybe Govey? Maybe bring back Cummings (he's a genius)? The unionist 'case' is probably going to end up as three-word-slogans repeated ad nauseam by the usual outlets.

[One Day Soon]

You are aware that was precisely the status of the Brexit ref?


I wouldn't be praying in aid the Brexit referendum as a parallel for good decision making...

[Kato]

I wouldn't be praying in aid the Brexit referendum as a parallel for good decision making...

The format doesn't define the content.

[Ozyhibby]

https://amp.ft.com/content/c61abdb7-8014-40a5-bb51-cd218b560138?segmentId=3f81fe28-ba5d-8a93-616e-4859191fabd8&__twitter_impression=true


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[One Day Soon]

https://amp.ft.com/content/c61abdb7-8014-40a5-bb51-cd218b560138?segmentId=3f81fe28-ba5d-8a93-616e-4859191fabd8&__twitter_impression=true


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I enjoy an FT sign in page as much as the next man.

[Ozyhibby]

I enjoy an FT sign in page as much as the next man.

It opened for me and I’m not a subscriber?


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[One Day Soon]

It opened for me and I’m not a subscriber?


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I'm being singled out. Bloody pro-Nat media. :greengrin

[Jack]

Johnson will sign a s30 anyway. They will realise that a court will side with our right to self determination over the Scotland act. International law will win in the end.


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I've said for long enough that international law will be used if a referendum is refused.

While we're at it I'll add again that the divorce settlement will be mostly settled using international law. Its almost oven ready.

[JeMeSouviens]

I wouldn't be praying in aid the Brexit referendum as a parallel for good decision making...

But you neither boycotted it nor denied its legitimacy.

[Saturday Boy]

Im going for a whisky distillery, with either a red arrows fly past, or a couple of spitfires dive bombing SNP hq.

I reckon that Leuchars is the likely spot. He can get a photo opportunity with the the Union’s brave boys who baled out the SNP’s NHS.
He did the submarine base last time.

And all without meeting any locals.

[CropleyWasGod]

I reckon that Leuchars is the likely spot. He can get a photo opportunity with the the Union’s brave boys who baled out the SNP’s NHS.
He did the submarine base last time.

And all without meeting any locals.

Does it have a fridge?

[Skol]

Totally agree but that is the desperation stage that they are at. As I say, if the union is so great, prove it. Make me change my mind.

If Independence is so great, prove it. Make me change my mind.

[One Day Soon]

But you neither boycotted it nor denied its legitimacy.


Yes, look at what a fantastic outcome that produced.

[Ozyhibby]

Yes, look at what a fantastic outcome that produced.

At least it can be partly reversed by voting Yes in indyref2.[emoji106][emoji6]


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[StevieC]

Im going for a whisky distillery, with either a red arrows fly past, or a couple of spitfires dive bombing SNP hq.

Technically .. I don’t think the RAF had any recognised dive-bombers .. I think that particular form of warfare was cornered by the German Junkers (ju88?). I’m guessing that any remaining Junkers will still have their on board maps for London. 😉


Edit: it was the JU-87 “Stuka”

[ronaldo7]

Technically .. I don’t think the RAF had any recognised dive-bombers .. I think that particular form of warfare was cornered by the German Junkers (ju88?). I’m guessing that any remaining Junkers will still have their on board maps for London. 😉


Edit: it was the JU-87 “Stuka”

He'll have to call in the Fleet air arm, and the Fairey Barracuda would do him just fine. Trust the RAF to wimp out. :wink:

[Keith_M]

Trust me, it absolutely will.


If there's a legal Referendum on independence but Tory voters follow Ross' advice and boycott, then the Yes vote will win.

The result will be legitimate whether Ross likes that idea or not.

If the Union is lost because people were stupid enough to boycott, then that's their problem.

[weecounty hibby]

If Independence is so great, prove it. Make me change my mind.
Don't need to. 60% of the country has already been persuaded. You on the other hand need to start persuading people that the union is so wonderful or its over

[Colr]

https://t.co/lwNQQgpo0G

[SHODAN]

Johnson will sign a s30 anyway. They will realise that a court will side with our right to self determination over the Scotland act. International law will win in the end.


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Why didn't it work for Catalonia?

[cabbageandribs1875]

I've said for long enough that international law will be used if a referendum is refused.

While we're at it I'll add again that the divorce settlement will be mostly settled using international law. Its almost oven ready.


:hyper

[Bristolhibby]

Why didn't it work for Catalonia?

I’m sure there’s some sort of legislation in the Spanish constitution. As ****ty as it is for independence minded Calalonians they are indeed classed as a region, not a separate country like Scotland is and will continue to be.

A crap excuse IMHO.

In Madrid’s eye Catalonian independence is like Wiltshire declaring independence from England.

J

Edit: Also there is no U.K. constitution easier to make the legal argument.

[CloudSquall]

Why didn't it work for Catalonia?

Spanish constitution states it is illegal for a region to declare independence.

[One Day Soon]

If there's a legal Referendum on independence but Tory voters follow Ross' advice and boycott, then the Yes vote will win.

The result will be legitimate whether Ross likes that idea or not.

If the Union is lost because people were stupid enough to boycott, then that's their problem.


I think you'll find that Labour and Lib-Dems will also boycott. It will be a non-binding, non-event. There's only one way to achieve independence and that's in a referendum with Section 30 support. That's not coming after this next election. As has been said elsewhere, not never but not now. Good luck to them trying to push on with all of this pi5h while the economy and country is on its knees after Covid.

[The Modfather]

I think you'll find that Labour and Lib-Dems will also boycott. It will be a non-binding, non-event. There's only one way to achieve independence and that's in a referendum with Section 30 support. That's not coming after this next election. As has been said elsewhere, not never but not now. Good luck to them trying to push on with all of this pi5h while the economy and country is on its knees after Covid.

There will never be a good time for something like a referendum. If it’s not Covid/post Covid it will be Brexit/post Brexit, or something else. If the people vote a pro independence majority then a referendum should be granted and held at the soonest pragmatic window. We ploughed ahead with Brexit during Covid so I see no reasons why that should be a barrier to transitioning to independence if there’s a pro independence majority and they win a referendum.

[Ozyhibby]

There will never be a good time for something like a referendum. If it’s not Covid/post Covid it will be Brexit/post Brexit, or something else. If the people vote a pro independence majority then a referendum should be granted and held at the soonest pragmatic window. We ploughed ahead with Brexit during Covid so I see no reasons why that should be a barrier to transitioning to independence if there’s a pro independence majority and they win a referendum.

Of course. People should get what they vote for, otherwise democracy is over for Scotland.


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[Ozyhibby]

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/editorial/the-irish-times-view-on-scottish-independence-snp-raises-the-stakes-1.4468294?mode=amp


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[Hibrandenburg]

I think you'll find that Labour and Lib-Dems will also boycott. It will be a non-binding, non-event. There's only one way to achieve independence and that's in a referendum with Section 30 support. That's not coming after this next election. As has been said elsewhere, not never but not now. Good luck to them trying to push on with all of this pi5h while the economy and country is on its knees after Covid.

So basically "**** democracy, we've got more important things to be getting on with". That doesn't wash.

[Ozyhibby]

So basically "**** democracy, we've got more important things to be getting on with". That doesn't wash.

The position won’t hold in the wake of a massive SNP win in May. Ross and whoever takes over Labour will likely be resigning and there will be huge pressure on UK govt to explain how they can deny democracy. The position won’t hold.


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[CloudSquall]

There's only one way to achieve independence and that's in a referendum with Section 30 support. That's not coming after this next election. As has been said elsewhere, not never but not now.

If Sarwar and what's left of the Labour MSP bench(es) after the next election take the same stance and get in line behind Ross and Boris it's game over for them.

[Callum_62]

The saviour of the union

https://twitter.com/GlennBBC/status/1147146064375504898?s=19

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[Ozyhibby]

https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/politics/uk-politics/1921435/dunlop-review/amp/?__twitter_impression=true


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[Future17]

I think you'll find that Labour and Lib-Dems will also boycott. It will be a non-binding, non-event. There's only one way to achieve independence and that's in a referendum with Section 30 support. That's not coming after this next election. As has been said elsewhere, not never but not now. Good luck to them trying to push on with all of this pi5h while the economy and country is on its knees after Covid.

I don't buy this argument and I don't think a lot of those I've read using it do either. It's not as if those voting for independence-supporting parties aren't fully informed as to what that means. The choice they're making is that it's the right time.

[Bristolhibby]

https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/politics/uk-politics/1921435/dunlop-review/amp/?__twitter_impression=true


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A piddly amount £13k four civil servants in a year and a half.

A not sure what the story is?

The report should be published, it could be dressed up as a governance study. The Civil Service do this all the time.

No idea what the secrecy is? Presume it will be the playbook for the Unionist campaign.

J

[Ozyhibby]

https://capx.co/whatever-he-might-imagine-gordon-brown-is-not-the-man-to-save-the-union/


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[Keith_M]

I think you'll find that Labour and Lib-Dems will also boycott. It will be a non-binding, non-event. There's only one way to achieve independence and that's in a referendum with Section 30 support. That's not coming after this next election. As has been said elsewhere, not never but not now. Good luck to them trying to push on with all of this pi5h while the economy and country is on its knees after Covid.


Sorry, I thought you were meaning the actual Referendum. I didn't realise you were discussing the 'indicative vote' (or whatever it's called).

:aok:


For what it's worth, I can understand your concerns about having a Referendum on Independence shortly after a Pandemic, but there is an argument that Scotland would then be able to map it's own path to recovery.

However, I totally respect that you have a different opinion.

[JeMeSouviens]

I don't buy this argument and I don't think a lot of those I've read using it do either. It's not as if those voting for independence-supporting parties aren't fully informed as to what that means. The choice they're making is that it's the right time.

Exactly. :agree:

If Scots don't want indyref2 they have plenty of opposing parties to choose from. It's fair enough to bitterly oppose a 2nd ref this side of the election. But by refusing it afterward (and yes, I'm tempting fate and presuming the result) they are changing the ground of the indy debate fundamentally. It was always the case that if Scots want independence all they have to do is vote for it. Where are they expected to go if that is no longer an option? :confused:

[bawheid]

Where are they expected to go if that is no longer an option? :confused:

Take what you’re given, eat cereal, try again in 40 years.

Seems fair enough to me. UK democracy in action.

[Ozyhibby]

Where are they expected to go if that is no longer an option? :confused:

That’s what is terrifying. Once you take away democracy, what fills the void?


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[Keith_M]

That’s what is terrifying. Once you take away democracy, what fills the void?




Vladimir Putin,

[Bristolhibby]

Take what you’re given, eat cereal, try again in 40 years.

Seems fair enough to me. UK democracy in action.

Yet Northern Ireland only need to want to have one and they can.

Unbelievable. Oh and they stay in the Single Market of the EU.

J

[Skol]

Yet Northern Ireland only need to want to have one and they can.

Unbelievable. Oh and they stay in the Single Market of the EU.

J

The situation in Ireland is not really comparable

[degenerated]

The situation in Ireland is not really comparableClearly, democracy still applies there.

[Ozyhibby]

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/scotland/2021/01/why-english-left-should-not-stand-way-scottish-independence

Paul Mason converts to Indy.


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[Bristolhibby]

The situation in Ireland is not really comparable

I keep hearing this, but why?

Democracy is democracy.

J

[Skol]

I keep hearing this, but why?

Democracy is democracy.

J

Yes, democracy is democracy, but do you really think the situation in Ireland is comparable with that in Scotland ?

[Ozyhibby]

Yes, democracy is democracy, but do you really think the situation in Ireland is comparable with that in Scotland ?

If they take democracy away from us it might end up comparable.


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[Skol]

If they take democracy away from us it might end up comparable.


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Yes, that is a risk. It would be a sad day for Scotland if we went down that route.

The democracy argument though is not so simple. We do already have democracy in place and have exercised that right. I think we need to wait and see what happens in May first before claiming our democratic right has been denied.

There is also the other side. Lets say we gain Independence and it soon becomes clear that it wasnt a good outcome. Lets say the next election returns a pro union majority. Will we be allowed another referendum or will our democratic right be denied ?

[weecounty hibby]

Yes, that is a risk. It would be a sad day for Scotland if we went down that route.

The democracy argument though is not so simple. We do already have democracy in place and have exercised that right. I think we need to wait and see what happens in May first before claiming our democratic right has been denied.

There is also the other side. Lets say we gain Independence and it soon becomes clear that it wasnt a good outcome. Lets say the next election returns a pro union majority. Will we be allowed another referendum or will our democratic right be denied ?
I know Scotland is different and there is a particular kind of unionist that will never accept Scottish independence, but why would Scotland be different to the other 60 or so countries that have gained independence from Westminster in that we would uniquely want to go back?

[Ozyhibby]

Yes, that is a risk. It would be a sad day for Scotland if we went down that route.

The democracy argument though is not so simple. We do already have democracy in place and have exercised that right. I think we need to wait and see what happens in May first before claiming our democratic right has been denied.

There is also the other side. Lets say we gain Independence and it soon becomes clear that it wasnt a good outcome. Lets say the next election returns a pro union majority. Will we be allowed another referendum or will our democratic right be denied ?

I’ve never heard at a country that gained independence that ever wanted to go back but absolutely if people vote for re-entering a union and that union were open to it then that should be respected.


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[The Modfather]

Yes, that is a risk. It would be a sad day for Scotland if we went down that route.

The democracy argument though is not so simple. We do already have democracy in place and have exercised that right. I think we need to wait and see what happens in May first before claiming our democratic right has been denied.

There is also the other side. Lets say we gain Independence and it soon becomes clear that it wasnt a good outcome. Lets say the next election returns a pro union majority. Will we be allowed another referendum or will our democratic right be denied ?

If Scotland gets independence and a party campaigning on a new referendum ticket gets a majority then that’s what the people have voted for. No reason not to have a referendum if that’s what we vote for.

[Bristolhibby]

If Scotland gets independence and a party campaigning on a new referendum ticket gets a majority then that’s what the people have voted for. No reason not to have a referendum if that’s what we vote for.

Exactly, democracy.

J

[CropleyWasGod]

Yes, democracy is democracy, but do you really think the situation in Ireland is comparable with that in Scotland ?

In essence, yes. If a majority of people in NI want a referendum on reunification, the Government are obliged to let them have it. That's built into the GFA.

Don't know why we should be treated any differently.

[Bristolhibby]

In essence, yes. If a majority of people in NI want a referendum on reunification, the Government are obliged to let them have it. That's built into the GFA.

Don't know why we should be treated any differently.

This. What’s good for the goose is good for the gander.

J

[CloudSquall]

Apologies if already covered (I'm a bottle of Argentine Malbec down :greengrin) but an interesting poll nonetheless regarding a three way choice between independence, status quo, and more powers,


https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1354420226025287683



Independence ~ 44%
Status Quo ~ 34%
More Powers ~ 17%
Don't Know ~ 5%

[lapsedhibee]

Apologies if already covered (I'm a bottle of Argentine Malbec down :greengrin) but an interesting poll nonetheless regarding a three way choice between independence, status quo, and more powers,


https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1354420226025287683



Independence ~ 44%
Status Quo ~ 34%
More Powers ~ 17%
Don't Know ~ 5%

Johnson'll be lying that "56% of you don't want independence" if he's allowed in today to Save The Union.

[Colr]

Johnson'll be lying that "56% of you don't want independence" if he's allowed in today to Save The Union.

It’s a bit of a false paradigm, that.

I’ve always, ALWAYS, preferred a federal model with maximum devolution including the English regions, the abolition of the House of Lords for UK assembly. Just the thinks that Brown and Starmer are talking about.

However, I’ve come to the conclusion that it is an act of self-harm for Scotland to be tethered to a centralising, English nationalist cabal for any longer and it should leave before any more harm is done and to enable it to negoitation where and how it wants.

Nationalists have mostly been around 30/35%. I suspect a good many of those who have moved towards supporting separation are people in the middle like me who see that the increase develotion that was promised in the last referendum was a lie and have lost faith that a more devolved UK can be delivered.

Therefore, when I’m presented with these choices, I think, “yes, more devolution would be good, but it’s too little, too late even if its actually true, so Scotland should break free and do it now.” So put me in th 17% in theory but in practice I would vote for independence.

[Ozyhibby]

It’s a bit of a false paradigm, that.

I’ve always, ALWAYS, preferred a federal model with maximum devolution including the English regions, the abolition of the House of Lords for UK assembly. Just the thinks that Brown and Starmer are talking about.

However, I’ve come to the conclusion that it is an act of self-harm for Scotland to be tethered to a centralising, English nationalist cabal for any longer and it should leave before any more harm is done and to enable it to negoitation where and how it wants.

Nationalists have mostly been around 30/35%. I suspect a good many of those who have moved towards supporting separation are people in the middle like me who see that the increase develotion that was promised in the last referendum was a lie and have lost faith that a more devolved UK can be delivered.

Therefore, when I’m presented with these choices, I think, “yes, more devolution would be good, but it’s too little, too late even if its actually true, so Scotland should break free and do it now.” So put me in th 17% in theory but in practice I would vote for independence.

That model of devolution is just not on offer anywhere. Nor is it ever going to be. There is zero support for it in England. None at all. And it can only be done if England votes for it. Not only that but none of the political parties in England are offering it either. It exists only in the imagination of those wishing to halt independence.
Of Brown thought this was what he wanted then surely he would have worked towards it when he was PM? He didn’t though because it’s only there to distract people from independence.
Can anyone seriously see this level of reform in England? They have no interest in it. They barely care about the tiny bit of devolution they have. Turnout at mayoral elections barely breaks 30%. They see Westminster as where power lies and are comfortable with that. They have no interest in change.
So talk of federal systems is just complete pie in the sky designed to weaken independence without actually giving anything away. Gordon Brown is just a two bit con man selling a product he can’t deliver and he knows it.


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[Ozyhibby]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210128/c82a96c329b716da610272f5eaa416c5.jpg
Even without getting into the fact that the UK has one of the worst Covid figures in the world, how do unionists feel about always being told Scotland can’t do things without England? Does it not affect ones self respect? Maybe just me but I don’t like to be told I’m dependent on others.


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[Kato]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210128/c82a96c329b716da610272f5eaa416c5.jpg
Even without getting into the fact that the UK has one of the worst Covid figures in the world, how do unionists feel about always being told Scotland can’t do things without England? Does it not affect ones self respect? Maybe just me but I don’t like to be told I’m dependent on others.


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He is correct though, if Scotland were independent we might well have been not as effective without the UK Govt's input resulting in less deaths.

[Keith_M]

He is correct though, if Scotland were independent we might well have been not as effective without the UK Govt's resulting in less deaths.


The UK's response to Covid has indeed been World Beating.

Just have a look at the figures

[cabbageandribs1875]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EszSvcwXcAAHtLU?format=jpg&name=medium

[Keith_M]

I'm confused about Boris' visit to Scotland to save the Union.


I thought the Tories were against Unions?

:dunno:

[Greenworld]

https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2021/01/my-sworn-evidence-on-the-sturgeon-affair/#click=https://t.co/ZKJrgst3Vf

Some read this

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[Ozyhibby]

https://twitter.com/gedfitzfilm/status/1354729401301282818?s=21

At least people seem pleased he’s coming.[emoji23]


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[Future17]

I'm confused about Boris' visit to Scotland to save the Union.


I thought the Tories were against Unions?

:dunno:

Johnson certainly struggles with marital ones.

[JeMeSouviens]

https://twitter.com/gedfitzfilm/status/1354729401301282818?s=21

At least people seem pleased he’s coming.[emoji23]


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Swiftly edited at the end there. I wonder if any Classic FM listeners knew what they were on about? :greengrin

[Stairway 2 7]

Sturgeon has to stop talking about independence and concentrate on covid, while johnson travels in a pandemic to talk about independence

[Ozyhibby]

https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2021/01/my-sworn-evidence-on-the-sturgeon-affair/#click=https://t.co/ZKJrgst3Vf

Some read this

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Absolute fantasist. The massive numbers of people involved in his conspiracy make it impossible for it to be true. He talks of meetings where people conspire to frame Alex Salmond for rape. And not a single soul has broken ranks yet? And how many people working at the crown office involved? And at Police Scotland? We are talking about a very large amount of people involved and all maintaining their silence? People not exactly earning 6 figure salaries. How much do you think a big unionist news outlet would pay for a whistle blower here? It’s just crazy stuff.


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[Jack]

I put this on the tory thread but it seems we're chatting about our wonderful PMs visit here.

https://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/six-ways-boris-johnson-will-fk-up-his-friendship-mission-to-scotland-20210128204716?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1611822975

[Future17]

Absolute fantasist. The massive numbers of people involved in his conspiracy make it impossible for it to be true. He talks of meetings where people conspire to frame Alex Salmond for rape. And not a single soul has broken ranks yet? And how many people working at the crown office involved? And at Police Scotland? We are talking about a very large amount of people involved and all maintaining their silence? People not exactly earning 6 figure salaries. How much do you think a big unionist news outlet would pay for a whistle blower here? It’s just crazy stuff.

There are certainly some "interesting" conclusions drawn by Murray, many of which seem like quite large leaps, but I wouldn't dismiss him as a fantasist. A lot of what he says relates to questions which remain unanswered and, based on the reporting of his own trial from a variety of sources, the decision to prosecute him seems ridiculous.

If (and of course it's a massive "if") there was a conspiracy against Salmond, I don't think it would actually require a prohibitive number of people to be involved. As for maintaining their silence, what is the incentive for admitting committing a criminal offence?

[Ozyhibby]

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-s-scotland-trip-is-a-gift-to-the-snp/amp?__twitter_impression=true


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[Ozyhibby]

There are certainly some "interesting" conclusions drawn by Murray, many of which seem like quite large leaps, but I wouldn't dismiss him as a fantasist. A lot of what he says relates to questions which remain unanswered and, based on the reporting of his own trial from a variety of sources, the decision to prosecute him seems ridiculous.

If (and of course it's a massive "if") there was a conspiracy against Salmond, I don't think it would actually require a prohibitive number of people to be involved. As for maintaining their silence, what is the incentive for admitting committing a criminal offence?

Pretty sure a whistle blower would get immunity from prosecution. It’s just not possible for a conspiracy as big as he is describing to hold without someone breaking ranks.


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[Hibrandenburg]

Pretty sure a whistle blower would get immunity from prosecution. It’s just not possible for a conspiracy as big as he is describing to hold without someone breaking ranks.


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Unless you have Stalinist like party controls that clamps down on unauthorised leaks. Oh wait a minute!

[Ozyhibby]

Unless you have Stalinist like party controls that clamps down on unauthorised leaks. Oh wait a minute!

But the people involved in this blog are not all party members. It goes to thousands of people according to Murray? And remember that it’s against Salmond, a man who is worshipped in the party. It just doesn’t seem credible?


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[Greenworld]

Absolute fantasist. The massive numbers of people involved in his conspiracy make it impossible for it to be true. He talks of meetings where people conspire to frame Alex Salmond for rape. And not a single soul has broken ranks yet? And how many people working at the crown office involved? And at Police Scotland? We are talking about a very large amount of people involved and all maintaining their silence? People not exactly earning 6 figure salaries. How much do you think a big unionist news outlet would pay for a whistle blower here? It’s just crazy stuff.


Sent from my iPhone using TapatalkIf what you say is true he is off to jail sworn under oath. Let's see how it plays out.

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[Hibrandenburg]

But the people involved in this blog are not all party members. It goes to thousands of people according to Murray? And remember that it’s against Salmond, a man who is worshipped in the party. It just doesn’t seem credible?


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Never underestimate the Stalinist vice like grip Nicolas secret police have over the entire population.

[Future17]

Pretty sure a whistle blower would get immunity from prosecution. It’s just not possible for a conspiracy as big as he is describing to hold without someone breaking ranks.

I'm not sure what you're basing that on but, even if that prospect existed, who would such a whistleblower trust and, more importantly, why?


But the people involved in this blog are not all party members. It goes to thousands of people according to Murray? And remember that it’s against Salmond, a man who is worshipped in the party. It just doesn’t seem credible?

I haven't seen Murray refer to thousands of people. I think the type of conspiracy he's alluded to could probably be achieved between approximately 10-20 people, maybe less.

[Future17]

If what you say is true he is off to jail sworn under oath. Let's see how it plays out.

Not really.

[Ozyhibby]

https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jan/28/a-rocky-route-to-a-scottish-independence-referendum?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_gu&utm_medium=&utm_source=Twitter&__twitter_impression=true


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[degenerated]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210128/c82a96c329b716da610272f5eaa416c5.jpg
Even without getting into the fact that the UK has one of the worst Covid figures in the world, how do unionists feel about always being told Scotland can’t do things without England? Does it not affect ones self respect? Maybe just me but I don’t like to be told I’m dependent on others.


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it's the glee with which unionists promote this that gets me, bad enough believing it but for it to be a source of tumescence is just bizarre.

[cabbageandribs1875]

https://scontent.fman1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/143549869_4284793298216318_4494067591845910631_n.j pg?_nc_cat=104&ccb=2&_nc_sid=825194&_nc_ohc=O6737alGrDcAX-XpP-q&_nc_ht=scontent.fman1-1.fna&oh=57832807d3232f2a90565330c21ce72b&oe=603A0750


and fine we know it..... :agree:

[Greenworld]

Not really.Why not really?
he would have perjured himself no.

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[Northernhibee]

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-s-scotland-trip-is-a-gift-to-the-snp/amp?__twitter_impression=true


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The same arrogance shown by the key Brexit supporting figures. “Aye, but Scotland will lose some business from England” where in fact we’re looking to gain free trade with 27 other countries plus the right to work and live in them.

Too many people south of the border seem to think England still has a grand empire.

[Future17]

Why not really?
he would have perjured himself no.

A prosecutor would have to be confident of proving that what he has asserted as fact (rather than the conclusions he has drawn from those facts) is actually false. Obviously we've only seen redacted versions, but based on what is in those, that would be extremely unlikely to happen.

[lapsedhibee]

That clown Costa on Ch4 News just now upping the 'once in a generation' rhetoric to 'once in a lifetime'. :crazy:

[Future17]

That clown Costa on Ch4 News just now upping the 'once in a generation' rhetoric to 'once in a lifetime'. :crazy:

The Tories have been doing a decent job of reducing the average lifetime. Probably be less than a generation after a few more years of Johnson.

[ronaldo7]

Warning of some sweary words in here, but it fair warms the cockles.

https://twitter.com/JohnWight1/status/1354852581005262849

[Ozyhibby]

https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jan/28/boris-johnsons-scotland-trip-proves-essential-to-nobody?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other&__twitter_impression=true


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[Colr]

The same arrogance shown by the key Brexit supporting figures. “Aye, but Scotland will lose some business from England” where in fact we’re looking to gain free trade with 27 other countries plus the right to work and live in them.

Too many people south of the border seem to think England still has a grand empire.

Access to the empire was one of the main attractions of the union for Scotland. It’s now just got Wales.

One of the main attractions to England was securing the northern border against invasion by European enemies.

I love the idea of offering up UK navals ports on the Clyde as joint EU naval bases💞

[Ozyhibby]

Access to the empire was one of the main attractions of the union for Scotland. It’s now just got Wales.

One of the main attractions to England was securing the northern border against invasion by European enemies.

I love the idea of offering up UK navals ports on the Clyde as joint EU naval bases[emoji179]

We’d still be in NATO so our bases would host forces from all members including the rUK. Nothing nuclear though.


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[Ozyhibby]

https://www.irishtimes.com/culture/nicola-sturgeon-brexit-makes-a-united-ireland-more-likely-1.4470488?mode=amp


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[Hibrandenburg]

Note to myself, watching Sky News Press Preview is not good for my blood pressure.

[WeeRussell]

it's the glee with which unionists promote this that gets me, bad enough believing it but for it to be a source of tumescence is just bizarre.

Surely it should be “the UK” rather than “England”?

Either way, I’m yet to see anything to convince me it’s not complete bollocks. In my opinion of course.

[Bangkok Hibby]

Warning of some sweary words in here, but it fair warms the cockles.

https://twitter.com/JohnWight1/status/1354852581005262849

Wonderful...shared the hell out of it.

[cabbageandribs1875]

We’d still be in NATO so our bases would host forces from all members including the rUK. Nothing nuclear though.


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i and a few million more, look very much forward to that


https://th.bing.com/th/id/R1e11754445239611d0ce2d7c2056a229?rik=Gfn0DD8kw28P IA&riu=http%3a%2f%2fyesedinburghwest.info%2fwp-content%2fuploads%2f2017%2f07%2fTrident-kill-zone.jpg&ehk=MysNVe52z7qNoKIz%2bnyERb5h6xhinZW4tdJq0AK73eo% 3d&risl=&pid=ImgRaw

[Bristolhibby]

We’d still be in NATO so our bases would host forces from all members including the rUK. Nothing nuclear though.


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The Nuclear card is worth so much. Scotland would play that card just like Johnson played the fishermen.

Huge leverage to hold.

Some sort of sovereign base with a 30 year lease or something.

We’ve got to be realistic here.

Anyway, eyes on the prize. Indy first then remove the Monarchy, nukes, etc.

J

[degenerated]

Surely it should be “the UK” rather than “England”?

Either way, I’m yet to see anything to convince me it’s not complete bollocks. In my opinion of course.I was responding about the too wee, too poor, too stupid myth promoted by UK and lapped up by unionists who wish to promote Scotland as some mendicant nation unable to survive without the benevolence of our philanthropic neighbour.

[WeeRussell]

I was responding about the too wee, too poor, too stupid myth promoted by UK and lapped up by unionists who wish to promote Scotland as some mendicant nation unable to survive without the benevolence of our philanthropic neighbour.

I know mate - my response was intended to comment on the social media post from said unionists :aok: I probably wasn't clear in hindsight.

[JeMeSouviens]

I agree with a lot of this piece. A good analysis of why it will be so hard for unionism to pull together its disparate parts to not only win another ref but actually build a sustainable future for itself.

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2021/01/quiet-collapse-scottish-unionism

[JeMeSouviens]

https://bellacaledonia.org.uk/2021/01/25/not-another-journey-to-yes in which yet another Labourite realises they have run out of UK road and realises the path to building a better Scotland begins and ends here.

[StevieC]

I agree with a lot of this piece. A good analysis of why it will be so hard for unionism to pull together its disparate parts to not only win another ref but actually build a sustainable future for itself.

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2021/01/quiet-collapse-scottish-unionism

Can’t get past the paywall, can you paste it in?

[Ozyhibby]

I agree with a lot of this piece. A good analysis of why it will be so hard for unionism to pull together its disparate parts to not only win another ref but actually build a sustainable future for itself.

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2021/01/quiet-collapse-scottish-unionism

Good article. It’s analysis of the change in unionism over the last 6 years is spot on. It’s now just basically British nationalism. There is now zero future left for enhanced devolution and the direction of travel is for bringing back powers to Westminster.


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[Ozyhibby]

https://news.stv.tv/politics/pm-should-stay-out-of-independence-debate-no-campaign-boss-urges?amp&__twitter_impression=true


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[JeMeSouviens]

Can’t get past the paywall, can you paste it in?


The quiet collapse of Scottish unionism

How the distinctive creed of “standing up for Scotland” within the UK has been replaced by one-size Britishness.
BY SCOTT HAMES

BBC Scotland is currently airing The Years That Made Modern Scotland, a documentary series tracing the nation’s quiet transformation over the past five decades. Guided by Kirsty Wark, a jaunt through the archive shows us the advance of the SNP, the pain of factory closures and the rise of Scottish crime fiction, as the nation walked the road to devolution. The distance travelled is remarkable, but in tracing the rise of national identity and political confidence, an untold story lingers at the margin: the collapse of Scottish unionism as an outlook and a sensibility.

This is no fault of the programme makers. The story of how Scotland got to be this way is also the story of how it gradually stopped being something else, and the latter tale is almost impossible to tell. Even in the period of the Union’s sleepy pomp, from around 1850 to 1950, scholars find it challenging to pinpoint the Union’s meaning in Scottish culture. Today, its patterns of dual loyalty are largely illegible, overwritten by competing Scottish and British nationalisms. Few of the programme’s viewers can recall feeling British Scottishly (or vice versa, according to preference), and you cannot vox-pop sheer amnesia, or film a lingering absence.

Oddly, this absence changes little on the political surface. When acceptance of the British constitutional order went without saying in Scotland, quietude was the measure of its strength. Because assent to the Union was scarcely a question, writes Colin Kidd, “there was no need to make a vigorous case on its behalf”, and so a banal unionism functioned as a sort of wallpaper in Scottish political life, which only began to curl and fade in the 1960s.

Thus historians and TV writers face a curious problem, of showing how the inarticulacy of unchallenged dominance – the political scientist Richard Rose describes an “unthinking Union” governed by “unthinking unionism” – swiftly declined into tongue-tied eccentricity, without ever finding its own true voice (or leaving much of an archive to raid). This may explain the total occlusion of the tottering Anglo-Scots union from Netflix’s The Crown, in which the constitutional remaking of the United Kingdom – and the very existence of Scottish nationalism – pass unremarked in its portrayal of Britain through the second half of the 20th century.

***

Simply deleting the SNP from history may please today’s Telegraph readers, but the unionist tradition involved a deep accommodation of nationalism within Britishness, or what the historian David Torrance terms “nationalist unionism”. As Torrance shows, the creed of “standing up for Scotland” within the Union, emphasising Scottish rights and distinctiveness within the UK, can be found in Liberal, Conservative and Labour traditions stretching back to the reign of Victoria, but the binary grammar of today’s constitutional debate renders it almost unintelligible. “Unionism has no new songs”, observed the poet Kathleen Jamie in 2014, nor a distinctive political language in which to sing them. The tunes and emblems nearest the hearts of Scotland’s No voters are strongly aligned with an Anglocentric British nationalism – the formation traditional unionism defined itself politely but firmly against insisting on a visibly Scottish way of being British.

So deep is nationalist “ownership” of Scottish national consciousness and its stories, firm opponents of independence are now drifting toward one-sized Britishness – a single nationality joining Nairn, Newport, Nottingham and Newry – as an equal and opposite counter-narrative. The Scots TV presenter Neil Oliver is an influential pro-Union voice who today espouses a romantic British nationalism with no room for Scottish distinctions (“[we are the] most blessed of all people. I am British. I will always be British”). Hard-line No campaign groups such as The Majority deliberately brand themselves as “anti-nationalist” rather than unionist, partly for tactical reasons, and partly out of honest indifference (organiser Mark Devlin admits that “like most people, I don’t care that much about ‘the Union’”).

Most intriguingly, some of the No hardcore view the traditional unionist story as a Scottish nationalist distortion: “reducing the complexity of Britain, from Devon to Dunfermline, from Birmingham to Bathgate” by viewing the UK national community through the prism of 1707. The very Union which produced Britishness is here denounced as treason against it; but as Kidd reminds us, “Scots themselves first developed the idea of unionism as an alternative to an English empire in these islands.” This amnesia is so thoroughgoing that the basic reflexes of an earlier unionist common-sense sound heretical to today’s anti-nationalists.

Mobilised and “de-banalised” opposition to independence has generated some curious arguments and alignments, including several difficult to square with traditional distaste for “narrow nationalism”. There is a creeping sense of entropy among those on the No side of Scotland’s constitutional divide, whose leading tendencies might be grouped in three loose strands: Best of Both Worlders (pragmatic unionists with a dual Scottish-British allegiance), Bulldogs (British nationalists in love with Britain and its blessings, who dumped Scoto-Britishness after 2014), and Nat-slayers (fierce anti-nationalists who despise the SNP but have no real attachment to the Union, or any other constitutional vision). There is of course considerable overlap between these groups, and some constructive ambiguity; George Galloway’s “Alliance for Unity” presents itself as “standing up for the Union” but its pitch and ethos centres on Nat-slaying.

[JeMeSouviens]

cont...

The Best of Both Worlds camp – the dominant and official No position – has been squeezed since 2015 by the growing electoral dominance of the SNP, mirrored in England, after the 2016 Brexit vote, by tub-thumping visions of Britannia unchained. The energy and success of these competing nationalisms have eroded any residual appeal of the Both Worlds middle course. But the real strategic difficulty for UK parties, and Labour above all, is that the second and third camps – Scotland’s Bulldogs and Nat-slayers – are increasingly vocal in their opposition to devolution, which remains the only game in town for Best of Both Worlders.

In their devo-scepticism, these hard-line No voters chime with the younger intake of English Tory MPs and Conservative thinkers such as Henry Hill. Here, just possibly, could be the makings of a UK-wide movement against both devolution and Scottish independence, following the logic (most recently articulated by the journalist John Lloyd) that all of Britain should have a stronger say in the UK’s possible dissolution. Should this dynamic fully emerge, Labour will struggle to find a defensible Both Worlds patriotism within it.

But there are audible strains in Tory constitutional politics, too. Just as the leading edge of Brexit nationalism is increasingly hostile to the unionist project of devolution, Conservatives show growing impatience with Best of Both Worlds thinking. The fact things work differently and unevenly across the “four nations” was meant to be the happy point of devolution, though now it is increasingly seen as an insult to British unity and largesse.

This tetchiness is even voiced by the self-styled “Minister for the Union”. Only weeks after privately condemning devolution as a “disaster”, the Prime Minister was reported to claim “that there would not have been a single Covid-19 vaccine in Scotland if it were up to Nicola Sturgeon’s party”. His meaning, a surrogate explained, was that size matters: “the UK is a major country, we’ve got sufficient clout to get the vaccines rolled out”. A fair point, but it remains notable that Johnson’s disdain for the SNP is seldom expressed in a unionist vocabulary, even when finessed and glossed by more tactful communicators. Indeed, it’s difficult to name a leading UK politician who gives the impression of viewing Scotland’s democracy as a cherished part of the British constitutional order, rather than a tiresome subfolder of the “major” state-nation.

***

When the bigness of the national unit is considered its clinching argument, a kind of moral defeat has already entered unionist thinking. When George Osborne openly boasts that the Union’s trump card is its imperviousness to Scottish public opinion, worries quite alien to the banal unionist tradition rise to the surface. What is the 1707 Union now holding together, other than its own governing interest, determined to maintain Britain’s clout and prestige? Scottish voters have noticed that the bigness of the UK government is having a very mixed pandemic, frequently coming apart like a cheap paper gown.

The political economist Will Davies writes of the waning “state effect” exposed by Whitehall’s response to Covid-19: the revelation that many core government functions are only weakly anchored in accountable public institutions, and are in fact “delivered” through arrangements more footloose and fungible than citizens might expect. “It’s not the size of the state that is shrinking,” Davies writes, “but its integrity and credibility in the eyes of the public. And a state that no longer appears like a single unified entity, but rather a set of private contractors, anonymous briefings and political strategies, is no longer an effective modern state at all.”

State effect is a telling prism through which to observe the contrasting fortunes of the UK and Scottish governments – and their attendant nationalisms – during the Covid crisis. Just as the outsourcing debacle of England’s £20bn track-and-trace system came to light, along with its embarrassing financial links to the ruling coterie, the Holyrood administration was looking more like a responsible and effective state than ever before. In the absence of Treasury firepower (and its temptations), the growing state effect in Scotland is centred on the moral seriousness of devolved leadership, and highly skilled public relations.

Edinburgh’s divergence from Westminster Covid policies has been modest, but deviations arise in a cultural context in which anything distinctly Scottish and home-grown is viewed warmly. Add the floppy-haired contrast in governing style in Downing Street, and the First Minister’s soaring popularity becomes easier to grasp, reflecting near-universal recognition of the diligence, sobriety and clarity Sturgeon brings to the task. The SNP administration has made painful mistakes, but has acknowledged them with due public contrition, and even those who question Sturgeon’s decisions generally accept the model of compassionate governing rationality from which they issue. At time of writing, Sturgeon has the highest approval rating of any politician in England.

In 2007, Alex Salmond – Sturgeon’s mentor and now her nemesis – struck a more audacious pose in renaming the Scottish Executive the Scottish Government, because there was no law saying he couldn’t. Here is the ultimate state-effect “hack”, and there has been no comparable feat of the unionist imagination during the course of devolution. The bleak equivalent today is Osborne’s argument that Johnson should “just say no” to a second referendum, indefinitely: because he might lose, and because there is no legal recourse to a permanent stonewall.

The absence of ideas over the past two decades is now matched by the twitchy radicalism of grass-roots No politics, less firmly attached to the Both-Worlds Union than in 2014, and hungry for combat with the nationalists. This poses special difficulties for Labour, the party most deeply wedded to the traditional framing of official unionism, and with most riding on its electoral salience across the UK.

[JeMeSouviens]

last bit ...

A second official No campaign would need strong input from Labour to avoid an SNP/Tory dynamic that strongly favours the Yes side, but Keir Starmer – like Jeremy Corbyn and Ed Miliband before him – faces a pitiless dilemma. The Labour leader has no realistic prospect of taking power at Westminster without a major revival in Scotland (or, more likely, a deal with the SNP), and no room to make the necessary overtures to ex-Labour Yes voters without gifting the Conservatives a powerful attack line (of meekness in the defence of Britain, or being Sturgeon’s useful idiot).

In the event of a second referendum on Scottish independence, Labour could find itself leading a No campaign whose most ardent foot-soldiers – revanchist Bulldogs and Nat-slayers – feel scorn for Scottish-British hybridities. Not only have passionate anti-SNP voters already switched to the Scottish Conservatives, but Labour making a dogged last stand for the 1707 settlement – which would likely include promises of enhanced devolution – would risk alienating English Labour voters already fed up of Scottish special pleading.

There is no realistic Labour pathway to Westminster government that does not involve a peaceable accommodation with Scottish nationalism, and little to recommend a second helping of the Better Together ordeal. In 2014, joining with the Tories to campaign for the Best of Both Worlds all but destroyed the party in Scotland. Next time around, the fight against Scottish independence will not find much utility in the nationalist-unionist tradition that Labour has inherited. It is a sensibility halfway down the memory hole, omitted from the stories modern Scotland and modern Britain tell about themselves, and it may be time to learn a different song.

Scott Hames teaches at the University of Stirling and is the author of "The Literary Politics of Scottish Devolution: Voice, Class, Nation" (2019).

[ronaldo7]

I agree with a lot of this piece. A good analysis of why it will be so hard for unionism to pull together its disparate parts to not only win another ref but actually build a sustainable future for itself.

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2021/01/quiet-collapse-scottish-unionism

Food for thought, and a good piece. I particularly liked this bit.

Edinburgh’s divergence from Westminster Covid policies has been modest, but deviations arise in a cultural context in which anything distinctly Scottish and home-grown is viewed warmly. Add the floppy-haired contrast in governing style in Downing Street, and the First Minister’s soaring popularity becomes easier to grasp, reflecting near-universal recognition of the diligence, sobriety and clarity Sturgeon brings to the task. The SNP administration has made painful mistakes, but has acknowledged them with due public contrition, and even those who question Sturgeon’s decisions generally accept the model of compassionate governing rationality from which they issue. At time of writing, Sturgeon has the highest approval rating of any politician in England.

[ronaldo7]

https://news.stv.tv/politics/pm-should-stay-out-of-independence-debate-no-campaign-boss-urges?amp&__twitter_impression=true


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Nice to see them reporting this bit, rather than an SNP majority. :aok:

The party has outlined its road map to independence if a majority of supportive MSPs are elected, which includes plans to hold another referendum even if Westminster refuse permission, effectively daring them to take legal action to stop it

[ronaldo7]

https://news.stv.tv/politics/pm-should-stay-out-of-independence-debate-no-campaign-boss-urges?amp&__twitter_impression=true


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This guy.

https://twitter.com/YesScot/status/1164198970022866944

[Hibrandenburg]

This guy.

https://twitter.com/YesScot/status/1164198970022866944

That's exactly the kind of thing that has the UK government scared and why they are desperate to put the once in a generation argument forward. They know that people still remember the lies and promises of the last campaign are still fresh in the memories of the Scottish electorate.

Boris Johnson will not be Prime Minister.

The only way to stay in the EU is to stay in the Union.

Devo Max.

Defence ship building contracts.

Let's not let them forget.

[Moulin Yarns]

https://news.stv.tv/politics/pm-should-stay-out-of-independence-debate-no-campaign-boss-urges?top

🤣🤣🤣🤣

[Ozyhibby]

https://news.stv.tv/politics/pm-should-stay-out-of-independence-debate-no-campaign-boss-urges?top

[emoji1787][emoji1787][emoji1787][emoji1787]

Better together 2 is going to be a difficult alliance to put together.


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[xyz23jc]

Better together 2 is going to be a difficult alliance to put together.


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Pretty sure Oor Gordon will be up fer yon post jist like the ither Morningside trai.....sorry person! :wink::agree:

[Ozyhibby]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/columnists/article-9205821/amp/DAN-HODGES-refusing-Scots-vote-Boris-repeating-fatal-error-Remainers-made.html?__twitter_impression=true

When you get this in the Daily Mail then it’s easy to see how pressure on Johnson will rise if he turns down a s30 order.


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[Callum_62]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/columnists/article-9205821/amp/DAN-HODGES-refusing-Scots-vote-Boris-repeating-fatal-error-Remainers-made.html?__twitter_impression=true

When you get this in the Daily Mail then it’s easy to see how pressure on Johnson will rise if he turns down a s30 order.


Sent from my iPhone using TapatalkA very good opinion piece

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[G B Young]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-55887234

The comparison Keith Brown tries to make with Brexit here would only make sense if the Brexit referendum hadn't yet taken place (or even been agreed). 'Pausing work' on a hypothetical referendum is very different to finalising a deal on a referendum which was held several years previously.

[Ozyhibby]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-55887234

The comparison Keith Brown tries to make with Brexit here would only make sense if the Brexit referendum hadn't yet taken place (or even been agreed). 'Pausing work' on a hypothetical referendum is very different to finalising a deal on a referendum which was held several years previously.

Tories are spending more time talking about it than NS. [emoji23] And if they are just going to refuse it, what’s the problem?


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[ronaldo7]

Tories are spending more time talking about it than NS. [emoji23] And if they are just going to refuse it, what’s the problem?


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DROSS has asked Nicola for a square go this month. Ticket only event.:wink:

[BroxburnHibee]

Joanna Cherry sacked from the front bench.

[weecounty hibby]

DROSS has asked Nicola for a square go this month. Ticket only event.:wink:
Hes a knob. We shouldn't be talking about independence, but let's have a debate about independence!! Sturgeon will destroy him one on one. He can barely manage to handle a Facebook live debate

[Moulin Yarns]

Joanna Cherry sacked from the front bench.

As part of a general reshuffle with 4 other changes.

[Ozyhibby]

https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/feb/01/labour-scottish-independence-referendum-nicola-sturgeon-keir-starmer?__twitter_impression=true


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[G B Young]

Apologies if already posted on here, but I see the SNP's response to this study fails to actually contradict any of its findings. Instead they simply try to shout it down without any evidence of their own and deflect the conversation in a different direction:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-55924053

[JeMeSouviens]

Apologies if already posted on here, but I see the SNP's response to this study fails to actually contradict any of its findings. Instead they simply try to shout it down without any evidence of their own and deflect the conversation in a different direction:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-55924053

I think that's probably the wrong link, GBY? Do you mean the LSE trade study? There is a (I thought) pretty fair and balanced analysis of it by Douglas Fraser on the Beeb site:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-55921961

I think anyone that seeks to deny Scotland would face a major hit on Indy vis a vis trading with rUK (and yes, twitter is awash with them) is away with the fairies. However, it is not equivalent to Brexit. Partly for the reasons Douglas Fraser states:


What the report does not tell you are the directions or strengths of other dynamics that could be expected with independence such as business investment, inward investment, migration, changes to tax policy or to productivity or a potential change of currency.

But also because in the long run:

- Brexit replaces a huge nearby market with the potential (subject to a raft of new agreements) to trade with a bunch of smaller, much further away markets.

whereas

- Indy replaces a large nearby market with the potential (subject to joining an already fully functional agreement we're used to) to trade with huge nearby market.

Also the large nearby market we're deeply embedded into is inexorably headed for the rocks, piloted by a bunch of morons. It is, imo, imperative to make a jump for the lifeboats asap, even if there are sharks to swim past on the way.

[G B Young]

I think that's probably the wrong link, GBY? Do you mean the LSE trade study? There is a (I thought) pretty fair and balanced analysis of it by Douglas Fraser on the Beeb site:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-55921961

I think anyone that seeks to deny Scotland would face a major hit on Indy vis a vis trading with rUK (and yes, twitter is awash with them) is away with the fairies. However, it is not equivalent to Brexit. Partly for the reasons Douglas Fraser states:



But also because in the long run:

- Brexit replaces a huge nearby market with the potential (subject to a raft of new agreements) to trade with a bunch of smaller, much further away markets.

whereas

- Indy replaces a large nearby market with the potential (subject to joining an already fully functional agreement we're used to) to trade with huge nearby market.

Also the large nearby market we're deeply embedded into is inexorably headed for the rocks, piloted by a bunch of morons. It is, imo, imperative to make a jump for the lifeboats asap, even if there are sharks to swim past on the way.

Yep, sorry wrong link :rolleyes:

Douglas Fraser always seems pretty good. Off topic, but he wrote a piece on Jenners last week which wove in personal recollections to create a much more enjoyable and readable story than simply a dry business analysis.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-55805481

[Ozyhibby]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210204/fc76b6329ab96bece3559b3312c3619a.jpg

Considering they are not going to allow another referendum, planning the campaign for it does seem to be causing some problems.


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[One Day Soon]

In a world where political debate was serious and discussion was rooted in evidence and reality this would be pretty damning:

https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/politics/scottish-politics/1945327/snp-has-had-14-years-of-government-but-still-failed-to-build-a-fairer-society/

[ronaldo7]

In a world where political debate was serious and discussion was rooted in evidence and reality this would be pretty damning:

https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/politics/scottish-politics/1945327/snp-has-had-14-years-of-government-but-still-failed-to-build-a-fairer-society/

Bits in bold from the article.

The UK is an advanced, stable, just society...Rooted in evidence.:greengrin

We can agree that Brexit is against our wish, Boris is a pain and Scotland has every right to choose her future... Not currently on offer from the UKGOV. So much for the just society.

[One Day Soon]

Oooft, I missed this one from him previously too in 2016:

"Former SNP adviser Alex Bell says party are 'Thatcher's children to a person'.

The former Head of Policy to Alex Salmond and an architect of the 2011 election strategy essentially calling them out as Tartan Tories. Brutal.

https://www.holyrood.com/news/view,former-snp-adviser-alex-bell-says-party-are-thatchers-children-to-a-person_6353.htm

[Ozyhibby]

https://news.sky.com/story/luke-graham-pms-adviser-tasked-with-averting-scottish-independence-steps-down-12207977


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[ronaldo7]

I think that's probably the wrong link, GBY? Do you mean the LSE trade study? There is a (I thought) pretty fair and balanced analysis of it by Douglas Fraser on the Beeb site:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-55921961

I think anyone that seeks to deny Scotland would face a major hit on Indy vis a vis trading with rUK (and yes, twitter is awash with them) is away with the fairies. However, it is not equivalent to Brexit. Partly for the reasons Douglas Fraser states:



But also because in the long run:

- Brexit replaces a huge nearby market with the potential (subject to a raft of new agreements) to trade with a bunch of smaller, much further away markets.

whereas

- Indy replaces a large nearby market with the potential (subject to joining an already fully functional agreement we're used to) to trade with huge nearby market.

Also the large nearby market we're deeply embedded into is inexorably headed for the rocks, piloted by a bunch of morons. It is, imo, imperative to make a jump for the lifeboats asap, even if there are sharks to swim past on the way.

Richard Murphy gives it a good going over on his Blog.

The repost itself says this...Unlike independent countries, Scotland does not collect detailed statistics on its external trade. Export Statistics Scotland provides useful data about onshore Scottish exports, but import data is relatively sparse.

I wonder if the report was party funded by the Union Unit.

[ronaldo7]

https://news.sky.com/story/luke-graham-pms-adviser-tasked-with-averting-scottish-independence-steps-down-12207977


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It looks like Boris had booted all the Scots out of the Union Unit, and made way for his Brexiteers. :aok:

[Ozyhibby]

It looks like Boris had booted all the Scots out of the Union Unit, and made way for his Brexiteers. :aok:

Who wants foreigners cluttering up the place anyway.[emoji23]


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[weecounty hibby]

Richard Murphy gives it a good going over on his Blog.

The repost itself says this...Unlike independent countries, Scotland does not collect detailed statistics on its external trade. Export Statistics Scotland provides useful data about onshore Scottish exports, but import data is relatively sparse.

I wonder if the report was party funded by the Union Unit.
there is already another LSE prof who has come out and said that in his opinion the negative impact has been greatly overstated in that report. Would be interesting to find out who commissioned the original report. I'm sure that over the next few weeks this will just be one of many reports coming out that tell us that we just cannot manage without those broad shoulders. You know like all those other similar sized independent countries

[Hibrandenburg]

It looks like Boris had booted all the Scots out of the Union Unit, and made way for his Brexiteers. :aok:

Why change a winning team? Problem is he's picked a rugby team to play football.

[JeMeSouviens]

there is already another LSE prof who has come out and said that in his opinion the negative impact has been greatly overstated in that report. Would be interesting to find out who commissioned the original report. I'm sure that over the next few weeks this will just be one of many reports coming out that tell us that we just cannot manage without those broad shoulders. You know like all those other similar sized independent countries

tbh, I think we should acknowledge the negative impact is there, especially short term. Adopting the Brexiter fingers in the ears la-la-la with added blatant lying approach is just storing up trouble for later. Then having acknowleged, we should be explaining how we mitigate and reverse it: promoting immigration and business relocation into iScot EU from rUK, for example.

One thing that struck me from the report that hasn't (surprise!) made much impact in the press is that the negative impact of Scottish independence on the rUK side of trade is actually quite significant. And of course, they don't have all the opportunities of redirecting their efforts towards the European market that we do.

[weecounty hibby]

It looks like Boris had booted all the Scots out of the Union Unit, and made way for his Brexiteers. :aok:

Luke Graham isn't Scottish. Born and brought up in Swindon but he was a Scottish MP sadly. In my constituency. So once again it is all about English people telling Scots what we can and can't do and what we really need and how it should be done. Graham was a crap MP as aswell. He would have turned up to the opening of an envelope and then put it all over social media but I can't see anything that he actually delivered

[weecounty hibby]

tbh, I think we should acknowledge the negative impact is there, especially short term. Adopting the Brexiter fingers in the ears la-la-la with added blatant lying approach is just storing up trouble for later. Then having acknowleged, we should be explaining how we mitigate and reverse it: promoting immigration and business relocation into iScot EU from rUK, for example.

One thing that struck me from the report that hasn't (surprise!) made much impact in the press is that the negative impact of Scottish independence on the rUK side of trade is actually quite significant. And of course, they don't have all the opportunities of redirecting their efforts towards the European market that we do.
100%. I genuinely can't remember seeing too many oeople.saying anything different. I do believe that long term we will see benefits like Ireland have seen but it won't be an instant overnight thing

[ronaldo7]

there is already another LSE prof who has come out and said that in his opinion the negative impact has been greatly overstated in that report. Would be interesting to find out who commissioned the original report. I'm sure that over the next few weeks this will just be one of many reports coming out that tell us that we just cannot manage without those broad shoulders. You know like all those other similar sized independent countries

Funded by the Economic and research council (uk gov funded) ably supported by

Angus Armstrong - pro-union, House of Lords Advisor

Jim Gallagher - 'Better Together' anti-independence campaigner

It's like they thought we wouldn't see them. :greengrin

[ronaldo7]

Luke Graham isn't Scottish. Born and brought up in Swindon but he was a Scottish MP sadly. In my constituency. So once again it is all about English people telling Scots what we can and can't do and what we really need and how it should be done. Graham was a crap MP as aswell. He would have turned up to the opening of an envelope and then put it all over social media but I can't see anything that he actually delivered

:aok:

Sorry, I wasn't meaning him, as he's booted some other scots out. Thanks for that though.

[JeMeSouviens]

In a world where political debate was serious and discussion was rooted in evidence and reality this would be pretty damning:

https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/politics/scottish-politics/1945327/snp-has-had-14-years-of-government-but-still-failed-to-build-a-fairer-society/

He's right in as much as the SNP has absolutely adopted don't-rock-the-boat this side of Indy as its overarching modus operandi. He's also right (well, I ****** hope he's right) that post-Indy politics returns to normal battle lines. I think he's absolutely wrong about EU membership which if anything gives small states disproportionate benefit. And the Elephant in the room he ignores is that the UK has mostly been/is now/will continue for the foreseeable to be run by an evil cadre of xenophobic morons. Even stand still centrism makes us relatively fairer year on year. The underpinnings of the UK's stable, fair society have not only been shaken, they're in the process of being ripped out bit by bit. A centrist, cautious Scot gov (or indeed any other type of Scot gov) can only mitigate that to a fairly limited extent.

[Jones28]

In a world where political debate was serious and discussion was rooted in evidence and reality this would be pretty damning:

https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/politics/scottish-politics/1945327/snp-has-had-14-years-of-government-but-still-failed-to-build-a-fairer-society/


Not as damning as claiming "The UK is an advanced, stable, just society with good social provision" when nearly 2 million people need to use foodbanks.

• UK foodbank users 2020 | Statista (https://www.statista.com/statistics/382695/uk-foodbank-users/#:~:text=In%202019/20%20approximately%201.9%20million%20people%20used %20a,around%20300%20thousand%20more%20than%20the%2 0previous%20year.)

[One Day Soon]

That London School of Economics report is pretty clear in its conclusions:

"Scotland is a small, open economy that mostly trades with the rest of the UK. There is around six times more trade between Scotland and the rest of the UK than predicted by a standard gravity trade model. Scottish independence would raise trade costs within the UK by creating a new international border. We use a quantitative trade model to study the impact of changes in trade costs resulting from Brexit and independence on Scotland’s economy. We estimate that independence would be two to three times more costly for Scotland than Brexit. Moreover, rejoining the EU following independence would do little or nothing to mitigate these costs. The combination of Brexit and independence is estimated to reduce Scotland’s income per capita by between 6.3% and 8.7%."

So whatever the case for independence may be, reacting to the economics of Brexit isn't it.

[Keith_M]

That London School of Economics report is pretty clear in its conclusions:

"Scotland is a small, open economy that mostly trades with the rest of the UK. There is around six times more trade between Scotland and the rest of the UK than predicted by a standard gravity trade model. Scottish independence would raise trade costs within the UK by creating a new international border. We use a quantitative trade model to study the impact of changes in trade costs resulting from Brexit and independence on Scotland’s economy. We estimate that independence would be two to three times more costly for Scotland than Brexit. Moreover, rejoining the EU following independence would do little or nothing to mitigate these costs. The combination of Brexit and independence is estimated to reduce Scotland’s income per capita by between 6.3% and 8.7%."

So whatever the case for independence may be, reacting to the economics of Brexit isn't it.


I think there would be a negative economic impact initially but I'm wary of taking those figures as being exactly correct, as I'm not sure how impartial the study is.

For instance, they seem to have gone with a starting point of the current economic model of Scotland, then removing part of the trade with rUK (largely guesswork). There doesn't seem to be much in the way of balance of any positive impact of a trade pact with the EU, or of possible relocation advantages for certain companies to Scotland* (which is admittedly difficult to estimate).

In addition, the US has been in a trade war of sorts with the UK for a number of years that has negatively affected exports, such as whisky, and effectively put the final nail in the coffin of clothes manufacturing. Leaving the UK would mean the US would have to refocus their attacks on products exported from what then remains of the UK, as their war would no longer be with Scotland, so the excessive tariffs would be pointless.



* Did you know, for instance, that JP Morgan have moved their HQ to Luxembourg from London (because of Brexit), but had considered moving it to Dublin at one point? As they already have offices in Edinburgh and Glasgow, the obvious alternative would have been Edinburgh, if Scotland was an independent nation and a member of the EU.

[Jones28]

That London School of Economics report is pretty clear in its conclusions:

"Scotland is a small, open economy that mostly trades with the rest of the UK. There is around six times more trade between Scotland and the rest of the UK than predicted by a standard gravity trade model. Scottish independence would raise trade costs within the UK by creating a new international border. We use a quantitative trade model to study the impact of changes in trade costs resulting from Brexit and independence on Scotland’s economy. We estimate that independence would be two to three times more costly for Scotland than Brexit. Moreover, rejoining the EU following independence would do little or nothing to mitigate these costs. The combination of Brexit and independence is estimated to reduce Scotland’s income per capita by between 6.3% and 8.7%."

So whatever the case for independence may be, reacting to the economics of Brexit isn't it.

Aren't these outcomes just based on the status quo? I don't see why Scotland wouldn't/couldn't have a similar relationship to England as Ireland does to NI post Brexit.

Is this model replacing ANY of the trade with the rest of the UK with increased trade with the EU?

[ronaldo7]

Aren't these outcomes just based on the status quo? I don't see why Scotland wouldn't/couldn't have a similar relationship to England as Ireland does to NI post Brexit.

Is this model replacing ANY of the trade with the rest of the UK with increased trade with the EU?

I think we all know we have work to do when we get our Independence. The report has to be taken with a pinch of salt. That was according to one of the authors on the Nine last night.

1DS is deluding himself if he thinks that project fear 2 will work this time.

[Jack]

A quick look on Google shows Scotland's main exports are:

Fish, Confectionery, Oil & Gas, Renewable Energy, Scotch Whisky, Textiles, Timber, Water

Despite much chat about it I wasn't aware we exported water!

It does make you think though that these reports make a huge issue of 'much of Scotland's trade is with rUK' in a way that if rUK didnae buy wur shortbread we'd go bust.

rUK already imports much of what Scotland has and could ill afford to do without - its already dealing in an international market for them. An independent Scotland would just be another trading partner for the same stuff.

[Smartie]

A quick look on Google shows Scotland's main exports are:

Fish, Confectionery, Oil & Gas, Renewable Energy, Scotch Whisky, Textiles, Timber, Water

Despite much chat about it I wasn't aware we exported water!

It does make you think though that these reports make a huge issue of 'much of Scotland's trade is with rUK' in a way that if rUK didnae buy wur shortbread we'd go bust.

rUK already imports much of what Scotland has and could ill afford to do without - its already dealing in an international market for them. An independent Scotland would just be another trading partner for the same stuff.

In the future (albeit not the near future) that water might become very precious. We have plenty, the South of England doesn't.

It'll be interesting to see how that pans out over the next half century or so.

[Ozyhibby]

I think we all know we have work to do when we get our Independence. The report has to be taken with a pinch of salt. That was according to one of the authors on the Nine last night.

1DS is deluding himself if he thinks that project fear 2 will work this time.

I don’t think the economics will be such a big factor in this campaign. After brexit both sides realise that the politics will be more important.


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[CropleyWasGod]

]I don’t think the economics will be such a big factor in this campaign. [/B]After brexit both sides realise that the politics will be more important.


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Dunno about that.

The No side will be keen to play up the "we saved your jobs/businesses/asses during COVID" argument. It's a legitimate argument, IMO.

The Yes side need to be able to counter it.

[Jack]

In the future (albeit not the near future) that water might become very precious. We have plenty, the South of England doesn't.

It'll be interesting to see how that pans out over the next half century or so.

England already take water from Wales.

[Mon Dieu4]

Dunno about that.

The No side will be keen to play up the "we saved your jobs/businesses/asses during COVID" argument. It's a legitimate argument, IMO.

The Yes side need to be able to counter it.

If we were independent we could have borrowed money ourselves to cover it like the UK government borrowed it

[CropleyWasGod]

If we were independent we could have borrowed money ourselves to cover it like the UK government borrowed it

I know this. You know this. :agree:

But it will still be part of the debate, which is the point I was trying to make

[Mon Dieu4]

I know this. You know this. :agree:

But it will still be part of the debate, which is the point I was trying to make

It will indeed be, we are far too poor to cope on our own

[degenerated]

A quick look on Google shows Scotland's main exports are:

Fish, Confectionery, Oil & Gas, Renewable Energy, Scotch Whisky, Textiles, Timber, Water

Despite much chat about it I wasn't aware we exported water!

It does make you think though that these reports make a huge issue of 'much of Scotland's trade is with rUK' in a way that if rUK didnae buy wur shortbread we'd go bust.

rUK already imports much of what Scotland has and could ill afford to do without - its already dealing in an international market for them. An independent Scotland would just be another trading partner for the same stuff.Conversely if westminster was to adopt the position that they won't trade with and independent Scotland they would be cutting off their main export market.

[ronaldo7]

Conversely if westminster was to adopt the position that they won't trade with and independent Scotland they would be cutting off their main export market.

We should play that up every time one of these reports hits a journalists desk. Ferry links straight to Dublin, and into mainland Europe would do me fine.

[danhibees1875]

Conversely if westminster was to adopt the position that they won't trade with and independent Scotland they would be cutting off their main export market.

I don't think I've ever seen rUK trade figures, but that doesn't seem right...

[Moulin Yarns]

England already take water from Wales.

Water runs downhill, and finds the easiest path 😉

[lapsedhibee]

Water runs downhill, and finds the easiest path 😉

If there's a hard border between Scotland and England after independence, bottlenecks caused by build-up of lorries, etc, could unemployed fishermen bypass that problem by taking the water to SE England by boat?

[ronaldo7]

I don't think I've ever seen rUK trade figures, but that doesn't seem right...

Drew Hendry says the second largest trading partner after the USA.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Adg8Q_zvIo&feature=youtu.be

[One Day Soon]

"I don't think I've ever seen rUK trade figures, but that doesn't seem right..."


That's because it isn't. From the report which is worth actually reading:

FACT 2. The rest of the UK is by far Scotland’s biggest trade partner. In 2017 Scotland exported £98 billion of goods and services, of which £60 billion went to RUK. This means that sales to RUK accounted for 61% of Scotland’s exports (see Table 1). At the same time, 67% of Scotland’s imports were purchased from RUK. These shares have been broadly stable for the past twenty years, as shown in Figure 2. By contrast, Scotland accounts for only 10% of RUK’s exports and 9% of its imports. This shows that trade within the UK is substantially more important to Scotland than to the rest of the UK. The asymmetry results from the RUK economy being eleven times larger than the Scottish economy.

[Smartie]

.

This might be a first for this thread, but I honestly can't find anything to disagree with in this post of yours...

[One Day Soon]

This might be a first for this thread, but I honestly can't find anything to disagree with in this post of yours...

Now you can.

[greenlex]

Drew Hendry says the second largest trading partner after the USA.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Adg8Q_zvIo&feature=youtu.be

Good point about majority of exports being non manufacturing too. Things that don’t need to be stuck on transportation and cross a physical border. Financial services, electricity, water, oil and gas. Infrastructure already there and could or indeed should be improved.

[degenerated]

I don't think I've ever seen rUK trade figures, but that doesn't seem right...The last figure i can find for UK exports to Scotland is from 2018 and was £64bn

The value of uk exports including Scotland are noted here for 2019 but will give a directional understanding.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/exports-by-country

And if you can be bothered then heres the scottish exports from 2018 which will give an idea of ruk excluding Scotland.

https://fraserofallander.org/economic-statisticians-irony-and-scotlands-latest-trade-statistics/

[cabbageandribs1875]

In the future (albeit not the near future) that water might become very precious. We have plenty, the South of England doesn't.

It'll be interesting to see how that pans out over the next half century or so.



there's already been studies showing parts of england with a lack of fresh water in possibly 25-30 years, there's more fresh water in just Loch Ness than the whole of england and wales combined....england will want that

[weecounty hibby]

"I don't think I've ever seen rUK trade figures, but that doesn't seem right..."


That's because it isn't. From the report which is worth actually reading:

FACT 2. The rest of the UK is by far Scotland’s biggest trade partner. In 2017 Scotland exported £98 billion of goods and services, of which £60 billion went to RUK. This means that sales to RUK accounted for 61% of Scotland’s exports (see Table 1). At the same time, 67% of Scotland’s imports were purchased from RUK. These shares have been broadly stable for the past twenty years, as shown in Figure 2. By contrast, Scotland accounts for only 10% of RUK’s exports and 9% of its imports. This shows that trade within the UK is substantially more important to Scotland than to the rest of the UK. The asymmetry results from the RUK economy being eleven times larger than the Scottish economy.
I might be wrong but if I recall correctly the figures are skewed as most of Scotlands exports go through England before further onwards travel to final destinations and vice versa. For example Scotch Whisky exports to rUK are not that high when compared to other markets but as they mostly go from English ports they are classed as being exported to England. I think that's right anyway

[One Day Soon]

The last figure i can find for UK exports to Scotland is from 2018 and was £64bn

The value of uk exports including Scotland are noted here for 2019 but will give a directional understanding.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/exports-by-country

And if you can be bothered then heres the scottish exports from 2018 which will give an idea of ruk excluding Scotland.

https://fraserofallander.org/economic-statisticians-irony-and-scotlands-latest-trade-statistics/


The figures are right here on page 5 of the report: https://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit17.pdf

Scotland sends 61% of our exports to rUK.

rUK sends 10% of its exports to Scotland.


This is why the report says:

"The estimated effect of independence on RUK living standards is small. Income per capitadeclines by 0.2% in the low border cost case and 0.4% in the high border cost case. Tradebetween RUK and Scotland accounts for 3.9% of RUK output compared to 44% of Scottishoutput, making Scotland much more exposed than RUK to the creation of a border within theUK."

[One Day Soon]

I might be wrong but if I recall correctly the figures are skewed as most of Scotlands exports go through England before further onwards travel to final destinations and vice versa. For example Scotch Whisky exports to rUK are not that high when compared to other markets but as they mostly go from English ports they are classed as being exported to England. I think that's right anyway


No, that is incorrect. From the Scottish government website from 2019: https://www.gov.scot/publications/about-export-statistics-Scotland/pages/export-statistics-scotland-faqs/



Are Scottish goods which are exported via ports from the rest of the UK counted as international Scottish exports?
Yes. The ESS publication measures the destination of goods exported from Scotland regardless of the port from which they leave the UK.
How are Scotch Whisky exports treated?
All international exports relevant to Scotch Whisky are counted as Scottish exports, irrespective of the port at which they depart the UK. The data is sourced from the HMRC Overseas Trade Statistics (https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statistics/OverseasTradeStatistics/Pages/OTS.aspx) report.
Scotch Whisky exports to the rest of the UK are estimated based on GCS responses, as HMRC do not collect information on trade within the UK.

[ronaldo7]

Take it with a pinch of salt. 30 minutes to about 34.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000s08p/the-nine-03022021

[Ozyhibby]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210204/52ae5a1fcc09be0a44f3156459145634.jpg


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[lucky]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210204/52ae5a1fcc09be0a44f3156459145634.jpg


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To be fair Ireland’s economy has been a basket case for many a decade so improvement was hardly an achievement. EU membership and euro money has been fantastic for Ireland. Unfortunately an independent Scotland would find there are more countries in the EU which would be poorer than us as such I’m not sure our benefits would be similar to Ireland’s

[Ozyhibby]

To be fair Ireland’s economy has been a basket case for many a decade so improvement was hardly an achievement. EU membership and euro money has been fantastic for Ireland. Unfortunately an independent Scotland would find there are more countries in the EU which would be poorer than us as such I’m not sure our benefits would be similar to Ireland’s

I think it’s an advantage that we don’t have to start where Ireland started. Fact is though that they are richer than Scotland now and there is no plan for that to change. Westminster doesn’t care one way or another. The goal is to keep us addicted to subsidies.


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[Colr]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9224369/Minister-says-Boris-Johnson-bailing-Scotlands-sluggish-vaccination-rollout.html

Another recruiting sergeant for the SNP, that oily, Etonian grifter.

[CloudSquall]

https://twitter.com/LesleyRiddoch/status/1357327004325077001

"Estonia set 2 reach Nordic GDP levels by 2025. Before 1991, country was 100% reliant on USSR for trade. No economists predicted this or other post indy transformations. But that won’t get psychically transmitted to the public @theSNPMedia. Rebuttal matters"

[xyz23jc]

https://twitter.com/LesleyRiddoch/status/1357327004325077001

"Estonia set 2 reach Nordic GDP levels by 2025. Before 1991, country was 100% reliant on USSR for trade. No economists predicted this or other post indy transformations. But that won’t get psychically transmitted to the public @theSNPMedia. Rebuttal matters"


But, but , bbbbb, BBC The Nine said, apart from arse-licking The Crown series on TV .....
Boooom...! :thumbsup::greengrin

SAOR ALBA :agree: