Scottish Independence

[CloudSquall]

Robine McAlpine carried out analysis on the start up costs of an independent Scotland for the Common Weal, if we were to go down the new currency route the Bank of England would want to cover it's exposure to the new currency so a "currency swap" would occur, essentially both countries would print an equal amount of their currency and swap them for reserve purposes.

It would be in the interests of both central banks to ensure two stable currencies so cooperation on this would ensure both reserve amounts were adequate.

[James310]

The central bank will be able to use its 10% share of the Bank of England’s currency reserves. That should be enough.


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That's a pretty big assumption to make, where have you seen that?

Of course test number 4 in the Growth Commission report is as follows:

4)Sufficiency of foreign exchange and financial reserves

I see nothing about taking 10% of the Bank of England reserves in the report and it being enough.

Why is that?

Also it's a position that needs to be maintained, it's not a case of having £X billion and that's it. It's all related to trade and balance of payments and what currency we will be buying and selling our goods in.

I appreciate you think it will be fine, but it's just an assumption without anything to back it up.

[James310]

Robine McAlpine carried out analysis on the start up costs of an independent Scotland for the Common Weal, if we were to go down the new currency route the Bank of England would want to cover it's exposure to the new currency so a "currency swap" would occur, essentially both countries would print an equal amount of their currency and swap them for reserve purposes.

It would be in the interests of both central banks to ensure two stable currencies so cooperation on this would ensure both reserve amounts were adequate.

That was a brand new currency on day 1 of Independence, that's not the plan.

[Ozyhibby]

That's a pretty big assumption to make, where have you seen that?

Of course test number 4 in the Growth Commission report is as follows:

4)Sufficiency of foreign exchange and financial reserves

I see nothing about taking 10% of the Bank of England reserves in the report and it being enough.

Why is that?

Also it's a position that needs to be maintained, it's not a case of having £X billion and that's it. It's all related to trade and balance of payments and what currency we will be buying and selling our goods in.

I appreciate you think it will be fine, but it's just an assumption without anything to back it up.

If we are not taking 10% of the assets then we won’t be taking 10% of the debt. Either way we will be fine.


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[James310]

If we are not taking 10% of the assets then we won’t be taking 10% of the debt. Either way we will be fine.


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You sound just like a Brexiteer, nothing to worry about, whatever we pick it will all be fine. How did that work out for them? Can you not see that, what makes statements like that different to Boris saying we will get the best deal ever a couple of years ago?

P.S the plan is to make an 'Annual solidarity payment' of around £5BN a year to the rest of the UK to honour our 'historic' commitment to UKs existing debt and international aid. Over a 10 years there is £50BN that needs to be found, the Growth Commission reckons the payment will be made for about a generation.

Sorry not a generation, forever going forward.

[Jack]

So if not huge what are they? New agencies required to be set up to replicate UK agencies, new financial regulation bodies to be set up, a central bank that requires currency reserves and so on.

It would be great if we had that level of detail to make informed decisions.

It's not for me to say, it's up to the people proposing the changes to say.

Scotland's share of the UK is roughly 10%.

That's 10% of the embassies around the world, the armed forces and all they have, all the current government agencies and, aye, 10% of the Bank of England.

If there's a transition period I doubt anyone would notice any difference.

There's loads of precedent in international law that would be the basis of a fair deal all round.

It's not like Brexit at all where there's no precedent and where the UK government haven't had a clue from before day 1 what they were actually negotiating for.

[Ozyhibby]

Scotland's share of the UK is roughly 10%.

That's 10% of the embassies around the world, the armed forces and all they have, all the current government agencies and, aye, 10% of the Bank of England.

If there's a transition period I doubt anyone would notice any difference.

There's loads of precedent in international law that would be the basis of a fair deal all round.

It's not like Brexit at all where there's no precedent and where the UK government haven't had a clue from before day 1 what they were actually negotiating for.

Yip, these are two very different unions. The break up of the UK is about the division of assets and although it will take time to sort out it should not affect day to day life.
Leaving the EU is about changing the trading relationships. By the time we leave the UK the trading relationship between the rUK and the EU will be set.


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[Ozyhibby]

You sound just like a Brexiteer, nothing to worry about, whatever we pick it will all be fine. How did that work out for them? Can you not see that, what makes statements like that different to Boris saying we will get the best deal ever a couple of years ago?

P.S the plan is to make an 'Annual solidarity payment' of around £5BN a year to the rest of the UK to honour our 'historic' commitment to UKs existing debt and international aid. Over a 10 years there is £50BN that needs to be found, the Growth Commission reckons the payment will be made for about a generation.

Sorry not a generation, forever going forward.

GERS has u paying £3.5bn just now towards debt and another £1bn towards admin costs. Almost found it already.[emoji3]


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[James310]

Scotland's share of the UK is roughly 10%.

That's 10% of the embassies around the world, the armed forces and all they have, all the current government agencies and, aye, 10% of the Bank of England.

If there's a transition period I doubt anyone would notice any difference.

There's loads of precedent in international law that would be the basis of a fair deal all round.

It's not like Brexit at all where there's no precedent and where the UK government haven't had a clue from before day 1 what they were actually negotiating for.

I guess we could go back and forth all day but statements like 10% of embassies is meaningless, what is 10% of the British Embassy in Madrid for example. It costs just under £8M a year to run the embassy in Madrid, is our saving therefore £800,000? When we are talking in billions then saving even £50M (that's probably generous) is sweetie money.

Why would we take 10% of the Bank of England when we will not take on any UK debt? I keep seeing this 10% being referenced but nothing to back it up. Is it just because we own it now we will take it, so why won't we take on any UK debt by the same premise.

You don't need to answer, I am just making a point it's not as black and white as some people make out. There are significant parralels with Brexit, that is clear.

[James310]

GERS has u paying £3.5bn just now towards debt and another £1bn towards admin costs. Almost found it already.[emoji3]


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Great, there is a start. Seriously that's the type of detail we need, so yes there is the £5BN nearly paid for, you just need to find the rest now!

[Ozyhibby]

I guess we could go back and forth all day but statements like 10% of embassies is meaningless, what is 10% of the British Embassy in Madrid for example. It costs just under £8M a year to run the embassy in Madrid, is our saving therefore £800,000? When we are talking in billions then saving even £50M (that's probably generous) is sweetie money.

Why would we take 10% of the Bank of England when we will not take on any UK debt? I keep seeing this 10% being referenced but nothing to back it up. Is it just because we own it now we will take it, so why won't we take on any UK debt by the same premise.

You don't need to answer, I am just making a point it's not as black and white as some people make out. There are significant parralels with Brexit, that is clear.

We absolutely will be taking on an equal percentage share of the debt and assets. 10% gets mentioned a lot but it may be that a different figure gets negotiated.


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[James310]

We absolutely will be taking on an equal percentage share of the debt and assets. 10% gets mentioned a lot but it may be that a different figure gets negotiated.


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I am not so sure, last time John Swinney said the following in response to George Osborne's insistence that there would be no formal currency union.

“If that’s his position, then the UK’s obliged as a successor state to hold on to all of the debt. We would be liberated from a population share of UK debt of £125 billion.”

It’s a simple idea: if you don’t let us keep the pound, we don’t have to pay our share of UK national debt."

Maybe he has changed his mind.

[Ozyhibby]

I am not so sure, last time John Swinney said the following in response to George Osborne's insistence that there would be no formal currency union.

“If that’s his position, then the UK’s obliged as a successor state to hold on to all of the debt. We would be liberated from a population share of UK debt of £125 billion.”

It’s a simple idea: if you don’t let us keep the pound, we don’t have to pay our share of UK national debt."

Maybe he has changed his mind.

And swinney was correct. The debt comes with the assets. Any attempt to withhold assets will obviously result in e refusal to take on the debt. That makes perfect sense does it not?
If I split with my wife, I don’t take responsibility for half the mortgage without getting half the house.

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[Moulin Yarns]

We absolutely will be taking on an equal percentage share of the debt and assets. 10% gets mentioned a lot but it may be that a different figure gets negotiated.


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I can't find the details on the 2014 referendum, but there was frequent reference to the divorce settlement being 'not detrimental' to either side. That was to ensure that the apportioning of the assets and debts was made to ensure fairness. This might be where the 10% came from.

[James310]

And swinney was correct. The debt comes with the assets. Any attempt to withhold assets will obviously result in e refusal to take on the debt. That makes perfect sense does it not?
If I split with my wife, I don’t take responsibility for half the mortgage without getting half the house.

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Well we have no plans to use the pound in a formal currency union, it's very much an unofficial union for a period of time that is unknown.

I do agree it's all up for negotiation, like it was all up for negotiation when we voted to leave the EU.

As an aside what was Christophe Berra doing there!

[Moulin Yarns]

As an aside what was Christophe Berra doing there!

Defending the Union 😉

[James310]

I can't find the details on the 2014 referendum, but there was frequent reference to the divorce settlement being 'not detrimental' to either side. That was to ensure that the apportioning of the assets and debts was made to ensure fairness. This might be where the 10% came from.

You mean like how Brexit was going to be a walk in the park and not detrimental to either side, but not to worry we are different and it will all be ok.

"The free trade agreement we will do with the UK should be the easiest in human history"

"There will be no downside to Independence, only a considerable upside"

All I have done is substitute one word in the above statements. The above could easily be said by a number of people on here.

And I can just imagine Nicola Sturgeon coming out with the following as well;

"There is no plan for no deal, as we're going to get a great deal"

It's all about taking back control, making our own decisions, spending our money the way we want to. Sound familiar?

[Ozyhibby]

Well we have no plans to use the pound in a formal currency union, it's very much an unofficial union for a period of time that is unknown.

I do agree it's all up for negotiation, like it was all up for negotiation when we voted to leave the EU.

As an aside what was Christophe Berra doing there!

Different type of negotiations. Scottish and rUK government arguing over the value of a military base in Belize wont affect day to day living in either country.
Trading relationship does. Hopefully that is sorted by then.


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[Moulin Yarns]

You mean like how Brexit was going to be a walk in the park and not detrimental to either side, but not to worry we are different and it will all be ok.

"The free trade agreement we will do with the UK should be the easiest in human history"

"There will be no downside to Independence, only a considerable upside"

All I have done is substitute one word in the above statements. The above could easily be said by a number of people on here.

And I can just imagine Nicola Sturgeon coming out with the following as well;

"There is no plan for no deal, as we're going to get a great deal"

It's all about taking back control, making our own decisions, spending our money the way we want to. Sound familiar?

Sorry Oz, but nothing like Brexit negotiations.

I was sure that what I said was in an official document, maybe even the Edinburgh Agreement.

[James310]

Different type of negotiations. Scottish and rUK government arguing over the value of a military base in Belize wont affect day to day living in either country.
Trading relationship does. Hopefully that is sorted by then.


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You're never going to be convinced are you, I just believe it's going to be a bit harder than you make out it is. Honestly, it is a very Brexit like thing to deny any potential issue and insist everything will be fine, I know you can't see that though.

[Moulin Yarns]

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/theresa-may-s-brexit-negotiations-a-blueprint-to-avoid-for-scottish-independence-yousaf-1-4985657

[lapsedhibee]

And I can just imagine Nicola Sturgeon coming out with the following as well;

"There is no plan for no deal, as we're going to get a great deal"



Nah. Whatever you think of her politics, she does not speak the Tory Brexiter drivel you exemplify there.

[Ozyhibby]

You're never going to be convinced are you, I just believe it's going to be a bit harder than you make out it is. Honestly, it is a very Brexit like thing to deny any potential issue and insist everything will be fine, I know you can't see that though.

I know there will be issues. Absolutely there will. But normal day to day life will be able to carry on. The trading relationship shall be whatever the rUK negotiates with the EU.


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[Hibrandenburg]

And I can just imagine Nicola Sturgeon coming out with the following as well;

"There is no plan for no deal, as we're going to get a great deal"

I think I now understand your problem, it's your imagination.

[James310]

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/theresa-may-s-brexit-negotiations-a-blueprint-to-avoid-for-scottish-independence-yousaf-1-4985657

What else is he going to say?

[Moulin Yarns]

What else is he going to say?

Well, you seem to believe that it will be the same, at least the politicians realise that it can't be.

[James310]

Well, you seem to believe that it will be the same, at least the politicians realise that it can't be.

I don't think it will be the same, I think some of the statements I see from some on here are very reminiscent of statements Brexiteers would use.

Not surprising though as both want separation, so it's a very similar argument for some aspects.

[Fife-Hibee]

You mean like how Brexit was going to be a walk in the park and not detrimental to either side, but not to worry we are different and it will all be ok.

"The free trade agreement we will do with the UK should be the easiest in human history"

"There will be no downside to Independence, only a considerable upside"

All I have done is substitute one word in the above statements. The above could easily be said by a number of people on here.

And I can just imagine Nicola Sturgeon coming out with the following as well;

"There is no plan for no deal, as we're going to get a great deal"

It's all about taking back control, making our own decisions, spending our money the way we want to. Sound familiar?

The best deal with the UK would be NO deal. We'd instantly save ourselves over 250,000,000,000 (billion) smackeroonies (1GBP to 1 SKR is assumed).

Which is why the UK will bend over backwards to ensure there is one, regardless of whatever rhetoric they get their media friends to echo.

[Moulin Yarns]

I don't think it will be the same, I think some of the statements I see from some on here are very reminiscent of statements Brexiteers would use.

Not surprising though as both want separation, so it's a very similar argument for some aspects.

I think you are mistaking separation for autonomy. The best option for Scotland is to be autonomous.

[James310]

I think you are mistaking separation for autonomy. The best option for Scotland is to be autonomous.

Definition of autonomous:

"(Of a country or region) having the freedom to govern itself or control its own affairs"

Joining the EU and being autonomous is a contradiction surely. Who would set monetary policy and interest rates in Scotland, it would be Brussels. Ask Greeks if they feel autonomous, able to make their own decisions and control of their own affairs.

I am pro European so does not bother me, but it's not true Independence when it boils down to it, that's why so many SNP voters voted to leave the EU.

[James310]

Why do they bring in so much more tax on oil than the UK?

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I was reading a bit more about this, it's a lot cheaper to extract a barrel of oil in Norway than it is in Scotland. Couple of reasons why, it's always cheaper to get high quality oil from the land than it is to get lower quality oil from the deep sea, our infrastructure is older and less efficient than theirs as we have been doing it longer than them. It costs about $21 to extract a barrel in Norway while in Scotland it's around $45. So with oil currently around $58 a barrel they make around 3 times the profit per barrel than we do, if oil drops below $45 we actually make a loss, while they continue to make profits. It's those profits that are taxed, so it's not as simple as just tax them and we make more money, it's more complicated than that.

It's funny how GERs figures were welcomed in the years where oil was over $100 a barrel and we showed a surplus, John Swinney said:

"This is an extremely positive report - demonstrating beyond any doubt that Scotland is in a far stronger financial position than the UK as a whole, as well as the OECD average.

"In 2008-09, Scotland generated a current budget surplus of £1.3 billion, or 0.9 per cent of GDP, compared to a deficit for the UK of £48.9 billion, or 3.4 per cent of GDP."

Now all of sudden the numbers are unreliable and made up.

Funny that.

[Callum_62]

I was reading a bit more about this, it's a lot cheaper to extract a barrel of oil in Norway than it is in Scotland. Couple of reasons why, it's always cheaper to get high quality oil from the land than it is to get lower quality oil from the deep sea, our infrastructure is older and less efficient than theirs as we have been doing it longer than them. It costs about $21 to extract a barrel in Norway while in Scotland it's around $45. So with oil currently around $58 a barrel they make around 3 times the profit per barrel than we do, if oil drops below $45 we actually make a loss, while they continue to make profits. It's those profits that are taxed, so it's not as simple as just tax them and we make more money, it's more complicated than that.Here's some more reading - just quick Google though, although suggests we both get most of our oil from the same place

https://resourcegovernance.org/blog/did-uk-miss-out-%C2%A3400-billion-worth-oil-revenue

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[James310]

Here's some more reading - just quick Google though, although suggests we both get most of our oil from the same place

https://resourcegovernance.org/blog/did-uk-miss-out-%C2%A3400-billion-worth-oil-revenue

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Still much cheaper to extract in Norway, which is main reason they get more tax, which was your original question. Just thought you would want to know.

[James310]

https://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/columnists/euan-mccolm-snp-s-project-hope-fills-black-hole-with-hot-air-1-4990540

I think this guy has been reading this thread about the similarities between Independence and Brexit.

[The Modfather]

Still much cheaper to extract in Norway, which is main reason they get more tax, which was your original question. Just thought you would want to know.

We have, and still are, mismanaging the oil. Should the real debate not be about what we are going to do differently going forward, be it in the union or independent, so as to fully maximise and invest (preferably into renewable energy) the oil revenue?

[James310]

We have, and still are, mismanaging the oil. Should the real debate not be about what we are going to do differently going forward, be it in the union or independent, so as to fully maximise and invest (preferably into renewable energy) the oil revenue?

It's part of it yes, but we also can't ignore that it costs considerably more to get a barrel of oil out of the ground. It also answers the question why Norway takes much more tax revenues than Scotland, so it's not a simple as stick taxes up and everything will be fine.

[The Modfather]

It's part of it yes, but we also can't ignore that it costs considerably more to get a barrel of oil out of the ground. It also answers the question why Norway takes much more tax revenues than Scotland, so it's not a simple as stick taxes up and everything will be fine.

I’m no expert as to oil and how best to utilise it, and there are many factors, cost of extraction, tax, what we’re using the oil revenue for, privatisation etc etc.

My more general point was around the debate being what do we do differently. I’m agnostic to the the solution, but we all agree it has and is being currently squandered. Would investment in the oil extraction infrastructure, as one example, help us to realise more of its potential?

[CloudSquall]

Gordon Brown federalism klaxon ,

http://archive.is/ljsv1

[James310]

I see Angus McNeil rubbishing the GERs figures again this morning, failing to realise he rubbishes the White Paper and Growth Commission report at the same time.

But yet when GERs showed a more favorable position he was saying the total opposite.

https://angusmacneilsnp.com/2013/03/06/new-budget-figures-show-scots-8-4-of-uk-population-pay-9-9-taxation/amp/

I would not trust this guy one bit, he was also spreading the lies about defence spending last week as well.

[RyeSloan]

I see Angus McNeil rubbishing the GERs figures again this morning, failing to realise he rubbishes the White Paper and Growth Commission report at the same time.

But yet when GERs showed a more favorable position he was saying the total opposite.

https://angusmacneilsnp.com/2013/03/06/new-budget-figures-show-scots-8-4-of-uk-population-pay-9-9-taxation/amp/

I would not trust this guy one bit, he was also spreading the lies about defence spending last week as well.

The same Angus McNeill that used to spend his time tweeting about the dimwits at the EU and about taking back control over fisheries?

[xyz23jc]

https://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/columnists/euan-mccolm-snp-s-project-hope-fills-black-hole-with-hot-air-1-4990540

I think this guy has been reading this thread about the similarities between Independence and Brexit.

https://www.facebook.com/euanmccolmmustresign

[James310]

The same Angus McNeill that used to spend his time tweeting about the dimwits at the EU and about taking back control over fisheries?

That's him, he is not the sharpest tool in the box, he has a bit of history as well which suggests he cannot be trusted. Was tipped as a future leader until his slip up.

[James310]

https://www.facebook.com/euanmccolmmustresign

So because he writes an article that upsets a few nationalists they start a campaign to sack him, unbelievable! Journalists better watch out, speak ill of the SNP and expect a campaign to get you sacked.

[Callum_62]

So because he writes an article that upsets a few nationalists they start a campaign to sack him, unbelievable! Journalists better watch out, speak ill of the SNP and expect a campaign to get you sacked.It's been 3 1/2 years. Has be resigned yet?

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[James310]

It's been 3 1/2 years. Has be resigned yet?

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I must be missing something, the article was written the other day?

Edit. Sorry, see the FB page is years old.

[allmodcons]

That's him, he is not the sharpish tool in the box, he has a bit of history as well which suggests he cannot be trusted. Was tipped as a future leader until his slip up.

Not a good one to get wrong when you're having a go at another's intelligence :wink:

[allmodcons]

The same Angus McNeill that used to spend his time tweeting about the dimwits at the EU and about taking back control over fisheries?


I can't say I've seen the tweets but, with all due respect, there is huge difference between taking back control of fisheries and leaving the EU.

[CloudSquall]

May be wrong but I'm pretty sure the SNP policy is to scrap or reform the Common Fisheries Policy.

[Fife-Hibee]

The whole "taking back control of our fish" is nothing but empty political rhetoric. Just think about what that would entail. Our own fishermen would have greater access to the fish in our own waters, but at the expense of our largest export market for fish.

They would have more fish to catch, but no reason to catch them. It's ridiculous.

[ronaldo7]

https://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/columnists/euan-mccolm-snp-s-project-hope-fills-black-hole-with-hot-air-1-4990540

I think this guy has been reading this thread about the similarities between Independence and Brexit.

Ah, one of your Twitter friends, Euan McColm, aka Brian spanner, misogynist in chief, and downright piece of crap.

Is the Scotsman the go to place for degenerates these days. Lots of links to it from our, Scotland in union, heid honcho

[ronaldo7]

May be wrong but I'm pretty sure the SNP policy is to scrap or reform the Common Fisheries Policy.

Correct.

[James310]

Ah, one of your Twitter friends, Euan McColm, aka Brian spanner, misogynist in chief, and downright piece of crap.

Is the Scotsman the go to place for degenerates these days. Lots of links to it from our, Scotland in union, heid honcho

I have no clue what you are on about, again. What's Euan McColm got to do with Brian Spanner Twitter account?

So civic and joyous of you calling Scotsman readers degenerates, is that something you thought long and hard about.

Is this the future of Scotland, calling on journalists to be sacked and restrict their freedom of speech because they criticise the government? Do you support that? Do we have an approved list of journalists in an independent Scotland?

[Fife-Hibee]

I have no clue what you are on about, again. What's Euan McColm got to do with Brian Spanner Twitter account?

So civic and joyous of you calling Scotsman readers degenerates, is that something you thought long and hard about.

Don't know about the readers, but those who comment on the articles are most certainly degenerates. It's all about the great British empire and emptying out those brown faces taking up all the jobs.

[CloudSquall]

McColm should be sacked because he's a ***** "journalist".

[James310]

McColm should be sacked because he's a ***** "journalist".

That's your opinion of course, but what was being suggested and implied is he is sacked because he is a critic of the Scottish Government, is that a sacking offence? For some it seems so.

[degenerated]

Ah, one of your Twitter friends, Euan McColm, aka Brian spanner, misogynist in chief, and downright piece of crap.

Is the Scotsman the go to place for degenerates these days. Lots of links to it from our, Scotland in union, heid honchoThe paper that brought us thishttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190827/5047acc9f84c307e7f16d0b7d9c4f409.jpg

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[ronaldo7]

I have no clue what you are on about, again. What's Euan McColm got to do with Brian Spanner Twitter account?

So civic and joyous of you calling Scotsman readers degenerates, is that something you thought long and hard about.

Is this the future of Scotland, calling on journalists to be sacked and restrict their freedom of speech because they criticise the government? Do you support that? Do we have an approved list of journalists in an independent Scotland?

I don't class that reprobate as a journalist.

Save your faux outrage for others.

[degenerated]

I don't class that reprobate as a journalist.

Save your faux outrage for others.He's in a shan band along with fellow roasters chris deerin, al murray and jakey trollings husband.

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[lord bunberry]

Why would we want to leave this bastion of democracy? I think I might switch sides:rolleyes:

[xyz23jc]

Why would we want to leave this bastion of democracy? I think I might switch sides:rolleyes:

Maybe we could ask Ruth or Someone from Scottish Labour, Ian Murray MP even? :greengrin

[lord bunberry]

Maybe we could ask Ruth or Someone from Scottish Labour, Ian Murray MP even? :greengrin

We’ve got more chance of getting a response from lord lucan than Ruth Davidson.

[Moulin Yarns]

We’ve got more chance of getting a response from lord lucan than Ruth Davidson.

Shergar said Neigh comment

[lord bunberry]

Shergar said Neigh comment
I watched a programme last night about shergar :greengrin

[Moulin Yarns]

I watched a programme last night about shergar :greengrin

Were you glued to the telly?

[lord bunberry]

Were you glued to the telly?
Haha :greengrin

[Moulin Yarns]

Haha :greengrin

I'm glad it got a laugh when the country is going down the pan.

[weecounty hibby]

Cmon Scotland, come to your collective senses and see what being a part of this union is really all about. Independence is the only way that Scotland's best interests will be looked after. We may make mistakes but at least they would be our own mistakes and not forced upon us, not even by a parliament, not even by a party, but by a person with an ideology so far removed from the majority of Scottish citizens that the leader of the Tory party in Scotland is about to resign

[Bangkok Hibby]

Cmon Scotland, come to your collective senses and see what being a part of this union is really all about. Independence is the only way that Scotland's best interests will be looked after. We may make mistakes but at least they would be our own mistakes and not forced upon us, not even by a parliament, not even by a party, but by a person with an ideology so far removed from the majority of Scottish citizens that the leader of the Tory party in Scotland is about to resign

Good post. My optimism falters and wavers by the day though. As I've said on here before I won't ever return to live here again, but before I die I'd love to see Independence for my children and Grandchildren

[CloudSquall]

Results from the Shetland by-election,

Shetland Isles (Scottish Parliament) result:

LDEM: 47.9% (-19.5)
SNP: 32.3% (+9.3)
IND (Thomson): 10.9% (+10.9)
CON: 3.6% (-0.1)
GRN: 1.6% (+1.6)
LAB: 1.3% (-4.6)
IND (Stout): 1.1% (+1.1)
IND (Scott): 0.6% (+0.6)
UKIP: 0.5% (+0.5)
IND (Tait): 0.3% (+0.3)

Liberal Democrat HOLD.

Lib Dems down 19.5 points but that was split between SNP and a number of independents, irrespective of party politics it's a shame not to see the SNP candidate in, young guy who seemed to have his head screwed on regarding local issues.

SNP threw a lot into it so are probably disappointed to come up short, but it is Shetland that has almost forever been Lib Dem and the safest seat in Scotland.

[James310]

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/17869349.snps-currency-plan-could-spark-200bn-economic-crisis/

These expert Professors who have advised the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank know nothing!

Are experts on a no deal Brexit to be believed, but experts on subjects like this are to be dismissed?

Maybe instead of attacking the man himself, attack his analysis and point out the errors or flaws in it?

"The SNP’s plan for a new currency in an independent Scotland could see the nation facing an economic crisis costing up to an eye-watering £200 billion, a leading currency expert has warned.

The costs of a “classic currency crisis” could be anywhere between £30bn and £100bn on top of the loss of foreign exchange reserves to the tune of £100bn; money that would be needed to protect Scotland’s new currency system from unwanted market speculation.

The estimate has come from Ronald MacDonald, Professor of Macroeconomics and International Finance at the University of Glasgow’s Adam Smith Business School, who has advised governments and public agencies such as the IMF and various central banks, including Europe’s, on currency issues

He sets out his views in an analysis for Friday’s inaugural lecture of Our Scottish Future, a think-tank established by Gordon Brown, the former Prime Minister.

Costs of £200bn would be more than Scotland’s entire annual GDP of £160bn and would result in Scots facing deep cuts to public services and significantly more expensive mortgages.

In his analysis, Prof MacDonald says a transition to a new and separate Scottish currency would closely mirror “sterlingisation,” which would be simply a more rigid form of a fixed exchange rate. But he argues an independent Scotland would need a more flexible floating exchange rate to absorb economic shocks.

He claims the advocates of sterlingisation, or a fixed exchange rate with a separate currency, have “put little or no thought” into the design of an effective currency regime and, thus, the viability of such for an independent Scotland.

Prof MacDonald points out the latest Scottish Government data on Scotland’s current account balance reveals a deficit of approximately £16bn which represents about 10 per cent of Scotland’s GDP; international capital would not regard this underlying macroeconomic fundamental as credible.

“With sterlingisation, £10bn per annum would be draining out of the Scottish banking system and Scottish banks would have no access to Bank of England reserves to replace these funds. To meet the demand for sterling in Scotland the Scottish Central bank would need to sell sterling denominated bonds to raise sufficient foreign exchange reserves to support the regime.”

Prof MacDonald notes this could be around £100bn but says: “However, to persuade international capital markets to hold such bonds, they would need to be sold at ever higher rates of interest resulting in a worsening financial position which would clearly not be sustainable.”

He goes on: “In other words, the proposal to use sterling informally post-independence would lead to a classic currency crisis in which the regime would have to be abandoned in favour of a separate currency floating freely in international markets, with all of what that would entail.”

The Scots academic points out, in the case of the alternative proposal of a separate currency fixed one to one against sterling, the outcome would be very similar to that of sterlingisation.

“Clearly, any attempt to impose such ill thought-through currency regimes on an independent Scotland would be hugely costly," he declares.

“The costs of a currency crisis alone would be between £30bn to £100bn on top of reserve losses of £100bn and this before we factor in the inevitable loss in value of a Scottish currency.”

Prof MacDonald adds: “Given this, it is surely now time for there to be an open and objective debate regarding the most appropriate currency regime for an independent Scotland and what that would cost.”

In April, the SNP at its conference voted to back a new Scottish currency in the event of independence.

The party leadership had wanted an independent Scotland to continue to use sterling until a separate currency could be “safely and securely established" but conference instead called for a new currency to be introduced "as soon as practicable".

Nonetheless, the decision marked a significant policy shift from the SNP's position ahead of the 2014 independence referendum, when Alex Salmond, the then First Minister, said Scotland would continue to use the pound in a formal UK-wide currency union; an arrangement rejected by Chancellor George Osborne at the time"

[Peevemor]

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/17869349.snps-currency-plan-could-spark-200bn-economic-crisis/

These expert Professors who have advised the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank know nothing!

Are experts on a no deal Brexit to be believed, but experts on subjects like this are to be dismissed?

Maybe instead of attacking the man himself, attack his analysis and point out the errors or flaws in it?

...

“With sterlingisation, £10bn per annum would be draining out of the Scottish banking system and Scottish banks would have no access to Bank of England reserves to replace these funds. To meet the demand for sterling in Scotland the Scottish Central bank would need to sell sterling denominated bonds to raise sufficient foreign exchange reserves to support the regime.”

Prof MacDonald notes this could be around £100bn but says: “However, to persuade international capital markets to hold such bonds, they would need to be sold at ever higher rates of interest resulting in a worsening financial position which would clearly not be sustainable.”

...

I'm no economist, but would a Scottish central bank not "inherit" 10% or so of both UK national and BoE reserves?

[James310]

I'm no economist, but would a Scottish central bank not "inherit" 10% or so of both UK national and BoE reserves?

Maybe, it would either be part of a deal or not. We also would then take on our share of debt.

But if we do I imagine it will be a fixed amount at separation, this analysis shows sterlingisation could drain up to £10BN a year, that's a lot of money every year.

It's all conjecture at the moment on both sides, but the take away point for me as always it's not as simple and easy as many seem to make out, it's complicated.

[Pagan Hibernia]

Results from the Shetland by-election,

Shetland Isles (Scottish Parliament) result:

LDEM: 47.9% (-19.5)
SNP: 32.3% (+9.3)
IND (Thomson): 10.9% (+10.9)
CON: 3.6% (-0.1)
GRN: 1.6% (+1.6)
LAB: 1.3% (-4.6)
IND (Stout): 1.1% (+1.1)
IND (Scott): 0.6% (+0.6)
UKIP: 0.5% (+0.5)
IND (Tait): 0.3% (+0.3)

Liberal Democrat HOLD.

Lib Dems down 19.5 points but that was split between SNP and a number of independents, irrespective of party politics it's a shame not to see the SNP candidate in, young guy who seemed to have his head screwed on regarding local issues.

SNP threw a lot into it so are probably disappointed to come up short, but it is Shetland that has almost forever been Lib Dem and the safest seat in Scotland.

You cant read a much into by-elections but that’s a considerable swing towards the SNP in what is, as you say, a very safe seat. Very interesting.

[Ozyhibby]

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/17869349.snps-currency-plan-could-spark-200bn-economic-crisis/

These expert Professors who have advised the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank know nothing!

Are experts on a no deal Brexit to be believed, but experts on subjects like this are to be dismissed?

Maybe instead of attacking the man himself, attack his analysis and point out the errors or flaws in it?

"The SNP’s plan for a new currency in an independent Scotland could see the nation facing an economic crisis costing up to an eye-watering £200 billion, a leading currency expert has warned.

The costs of a “classic currency crisis” could be anywhere between £30bn and £100bn on top of the loss of foreign exchange reserves to the tune of £100bn; money that would be needed to protect Scotland’s new currency system from unwanted market speculation.

The estimate has come from Ronald MacDonald, Professor of Macroeconomics and International Finance at the University of Glasgow’s Adam Smith Business School, who has advised governments and public agencies such as the IMF and various central banks, including Europe’s, on currency issues

He sets out his views in an analysis for Friday’s inaugural lecture of Our Scottish Future, a think-tank established by Gordon Brown, the former Prime Minister.

Costs of £200bn would be more than Scotland’s entire annual GDP of £160bn and would result in Scots facing deep cuts to public services and significantly more expensive mortgages.

In his analysis, Prof MacDonald says a transition to a new and separate Scottish currency would closely mirror “sterlingisation,” which would be simply a more rigid form of a fixed exchange rate. But he argues an independent Scotland would need a more flexible floating exchange rate to absorb economic shocks.

He claims the advocates of sterlingisation, or a fixed exchange rate with a separate currency, have “put little or no thought” into the design of an effective currency regime and, thus, the viability of such for an independent Scotland.

Prof MacDonald points out the latest Scottish Government data on Scotland’s current account balance reveals a deficit of approximately £16bn which represents about 10 per cent of Scotland’s GDP; international capital would not regard this underlying macroeconomic fundamental as credible.

“With sterlingisation, £10bn per annum would be draining out of the Scottish banking system and Scottish banks would have no access to Bank of England reserves to replace these funds. To meet the demand for sterling in Scotland the Scottish Central bank would need to sell sterling denominated bonds to raise sufficient foreign exchange reserves to support the regime.”

Prof MacDonald notes this could be around £100bn but says: “However, to persuade international capital markets to hold such bonds, they would need to be sold at ever higher rates of interest resulting in a worsening financial position which would clearly not be sustainable.”

He goes on: “In other words, the proposal to use sterling informally post-independence would lead to a classic currency crisis in which the regime would have to be abandoned in favour of a separate currency floating freely in international markets, with all of what that would entail.”

The Scots academic points out, in the case of the alternative proposal of a separate currency fixed one to one against sterling, the outcome would be very similar to that of sterlingisation.

“Clearly, any attempt to impose such ill thought-through currency regimes on an independent Scotland would be hugely costly," he declares.

“The costs of a currency crisis alone would be between £30bn to £100bn on top of reserve losses of £100bn and this before we factor in the inevitable loss in value of a Scottish currency.”

Prof MacDonald adds: “Given this, it is surely now time for there to be an open and objective debate regarding the most appropriate currency regime for an independent Scotland and what that would cost.”

In April, the SNP at its conference voted to back a new Scottish currency in the event of independence.

The party leadership had wanted an independent Scotland to continue to use sterling until a separate currency could be “safely and securely established" but conference instead called for a new currency to be introduced "as soon as practicable".

Nonetheless, the decision marked a significant policy shift from the SNP's position ahead of the 2014 independence referendum, when Alex Salmond, the then First Minister, said Scotland would continue to use the pound in a formal UK-wide currency union; an arrangement rejected by Chancellor George Osborne at the time"

Looks like he’s added £4bn to our notional deficit on the GERS figures. You sure he’s an expert?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Moulin Yarns]

Looks like he’s added £4bn to our notional deficit on the GERS figures. You sure he’s an expert?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

https://images.app.goo.gl/4YBZUwy1YHa7cH6y8

[Ozyhibby]

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/17869349.snps-currency-plan-could-spark-200bn-economic-crisis/

These expert Professors who have advised the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank know nothing!

Are experts on a no deal Brexit to be believed, but experts on subjects like this are to be dismissed?

Maybe instead of attacking the man himself, attack his analysis and point out the errors or flaws in it?

"The SNP’s plan for a new currency in an independent Scotland could see the nation facing an economic crisis costing up to an eye-watering £200 billion, a leading currency expert has warned.

The costs of a “classic currency crisis” could be anywhere between £30bn and £100bn on top of the loss of foreign exchange reserves to the tune of £100bn; money that would be needed to protect Scotland’s new currency system from unwanted market speculation.

The estimate has come from Ronald MacDonald, Professor of Macroeconomics and International Finance at the University of Glasgow’s Adam Smith Business School, who has advised governments and public agencies such as the IMF and various central banks, including Europe’s, on currency issues

He sets out his views in an analysis for Friday’s inaugural lecture of Our Scottish Future, a think-tank established by Gordon Brown, the former Prime Minister.

Costs of £200bn would be more than Scotland’s entire annual GDP of £160bn and would result in Scots facing deep cuts to public services and significantly more expensive mortgages.

In his analysis, Prof MacDonald says a transition to a new and separate Scottish currency would closely mirror “sterlingisation,” which would be simply a more rigid form of a fixed exchange rate. But he argues an independent Scotland would need a more flexible floating exchange rate to absorb economic shocks.

He claims the advocates of sterlingisation, or a fixed exchange rate with a separate currency, have “put little or no thought” into the design of an effective currency regime and, thus, the viability of such for an independent Scotland.

Prof MacDonald points out the latest Scottish Government data on Scotland’s current account balance reveals a deficit of approximately £16bn which represents about 10 per cent of Scotland’s GDP; international capital would not regard this underlying macroeconomic fundamental as credible.

“With sterlingisation, £10bn per annum would be draining out of the Scottish banking system and Scottish banks would have no access to Bank of England reserves to replace these funds. To meet the demand for sterling in Scotland the Scottish Central bank would need to sell sterling denominated bonds to raise sufficient foreign exchange reserves to support the regime.”

Prof MacDonald notes this could be around £100bn but says: “However, to persuade international capital markets to hold such bonds, they would need to be sold at ever higher rates of interest resulting in a worsening financial position which would clearly not be sustainable.”

He goes on: “In other words, the proposal to use sterling informally post-independence would lead to a classic currency crisis in which the regime would have to be abandoned in favour of a separate currency floating freely in international markets, with all of what that would entail.”

The Scots academic points out, in the case of the alternative proposal of a separate currency fixed one to one against sterling, the outcome would be very similar to that of sterlingisation.

“Clearly, any attempt to impose such ill thought-through currency regimes on an independent Scotland would be hugely costly," he declares.

“The costs of a currency crisis alone would be between £30bn to £100bn on top of reserve losses of £100bn and this before we factor in the inevitable loss in value of a Scottish currency.”

Prof MacDonald adds: “Given this, it is surely now time for there to be an open and objective debate regarding the most appropriate currency regime for an independent Scotland and what that would cost.”

In April, the SNP at its conference voted to back a new Scottish currency in the event of independence.

The party leadership had wanted an independent Scotland to continue to use sterling until a separate currency could be “safely and securely established" but conference instead called for a new currency to be introduced "as soon as practicable".

Nonetheless, the decision marked a significant policy shift from the SNP's position ahead of the 2014 independence referendum, when Alex Salmond, the then First Minister, said Scotland would continue to use the pound in a formal UK-wide currency union; an arrangement rejected by Chancellor George Osborne at the time"

Love the way he rounds up figures.[emoji23]
£10bn here, £30bn there. Oh, that sounds a scary one, call it £100bn and the total the whole lot to £200bn. Perfect.
Now what’s my fee for this article?
If this is an indication of Better Together 2 then it should be a lot easier than last time.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[CloudSquall]

"He sets out his views in an analysis for Friday’s inaugural lecture of Our Scottish Future, a think-tank established by Gordon Brown, the former Prime Minister."


Aye, awright then:greengrin


In any case his argument that Scotland would lose 100% of the BoE's foreign currency reserves in negotiations is just not credible.

[James310]

Love the way he rounds up figures.[emoji23]
£10bn here, £30bn there. Oh, that sounds a scary one, call it £100bn and the total the whole lot to £200bn. Perfect.
Now what’s my fee for this article?
If this is an indication of Better Together 2 then it should be a lot easier than last time.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Easier in what way, just dismiss it based on the figures look to large to be true? That will go down well. Classic Brexiteer behaviour, dismiss the man and dismiss his analysis because the numbers look to big and you don't like what it says (Although I do agree I think his £16BN is too high)

On a daily basis the FX market transacts around $5 trillion dollars. A few billion here and there is nothing.

It's the reaction I expected, but it would be nice to see a serious rebuttal based on analysis, not just the figures look too big to be true. I can't imagine Nicola Sturgeon using that line.

[Peevemor]

Easier in what way, just dismiss it based on the figures look to large to be true? That will go down well. Classic Brexiteer behaviour, dismiss the man and dismiss his analysis because the numbers look to big and you don't like what it says (Although I do agree I think his £16BN is too high)

On a daily basis the FX market transacts around $5 trillion dollars. A few billion here and there is nothing.

It's the reaction I expected, but it would be nice to see a serious rebuttal based on analysis, not just the figures look too big to be true. I can't imagine Nicola Sturgeon using that line.

So is he simply ignoring Scotland's eventual share of the UK Treasury? If so is this normal?

[Ozyhibby]

Easier in what way, just dismiss it based on the figures look to large to be true? That will go down well. Classic Brexiteer behaviour, dismiss the man and dismiss his analysis because the numbers look to big and you don't like what it says (Although I do agree I think his £16BN is too high)

On a daily basis the FX market transacts around $5 trillion dollars. A few billion here and there is nothing.

It's the reaction I expected, but it would be nice to see a serious rebuttal based on analysis, not just the figures look too big to be true. I can't imagine Nicola Sturgeon using that line.

If it was a serious intervention then it might get a serious rebuttal but as it’s just a paid lackey for Gordon Brown then it’s hardly worth the bother.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[James310]

If it was a serious intervention then it might get a serious rebuttal but as it’s just a paid lackey for Gordon Brown then it’s hardly worth the bother.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Again, classic Brexiteer tactics. I know you can't see it, but it really is. Dismiss the expert's as they are obviously paid for by the 'other side'.

Why do you accept the analysis from the so called experts on a no deal Brexit?

So far I have seen a few attacks on the man himself, and dismissing the analysis as the numbers look like they are 'too big' not exactly ripping the analysis apart is it.

[CloudSquall]

Easier in what way, just dismiss it based on the figures look to large to be true? That will go down well. Classic Brexiteer behaviour, dismiss the man and dismiss his analysis because the numbers look to big and you don't like what it says (Although I do agree I think his £16BN is too high)

On a daily basis the FX market transacts around $5 trillion dollars. A few billion here and there is nothing.

It's the reaction I expected, but it would be nice to see a serious rebuttal based on analysis, not just the figures look too big to be true. I can't imagine Nicola Sturgeon using that line.

My rebuttal of it is it can't be taken seriously if he is basing his figures on Scotland taking 0% of the UK's current reserves.

[James310]

My rebuttal of it is it can't be taken seriously if he is basing his figures on Scotland taking 0% of the UK's current reserves.

What is the current amount of reserves and what % would we take, if you are going to rebut it on a point like that then surely you know how wrong he is? That would actually be a fair rebuttal if you could maybe say but we would get £100BN in reserves from the BoE.

[Peevemor]

What is the current amount of reserves and what % would we take, if you are going to rebut it on a point like that then surely you know how wrong he is? That would actually be a fair rebuttal if you could maybe say but we would get £100BN in reserves from the BoE.

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/uk-international-reserves/2019/january-2019

[James310]

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/uk-international-reserves/2019/january-2019

So £181BN gross or £56BN minus liabilities.

Even 10% of the £181BN is nowhere near enough when it's predicted sterlingisation will cost in the region of £10BN a year.

[Peevemor]

So £181BN gross or £56BN minus liabilities.

Even 10% of the £181BN is nowhere near enough when it's predicted sterlingisation will cost in the region of £10BN a year.

I could be completely wrong, but is the need for reserves not a cash-flow thing? A £10Bn fluctuation against £18Bn in reserve works does it not?

[James310]

I could be completely wrong, but is the need for reserves not a cash-flow thing? A £10Bn fluctuation against £18Bn in reserve works does it not?

It's £10BN per annum.

"With sterlingisation, £10bn per annum would be draining out of the Scottish banking system and Scottish banks would have no access to Bank of England reserves to replace these funds. To meet the demand for sterling in Scotland the Scottish Central bank would need to sell sterling denominated bonds to raise sufficient foreign exchange reserves to support the regime.”

The access to BoE funds means ongoing access, once we separate and take our share then that's it, it's not our bank anymore.

[Moulin Yarns]

It's £10BN per annum.

"With sterlingisation, £10bn per annum would be draining out of the Scottish banking system and Scottish banks would have no access to Bank of England reserves to replace these funds. To meet the demand for sterling in Scotland the Scottish Central bank would need to sell sterling denominated bonds to raise sufficient foreign exchange reserves to support the regime.”

The access to BoE funds means ongoing access, once we separate and take our share then that's it, it's not our bank anymore.

If nothing else it would focus minds to build reserves after the first year.

[James310]

If nothing else it would focus minds to build reserves after the first year.

How? Would that be spending cuts or raising taxes or something else?

[Moulin Yarns]

How? Would that be spending cuts or raising taxes or something else?

Well, I am not an accountant but from the £18bn deducted the £10bn leaves £8bn reserves in year one. A proper level of investment will grow that, don't ask what level of growth because I'm not personally interested in the market but don't believe that it's likely to be impossible.

Now, that's a start, from someone who knows diddlysquat about government finances. If you want to give an alternative view of how you want to grow an investment strategy then please feel free.

[Peevemor]

It's £10BN per annum.

"With sterlingisation, £10bn per annum would be draining out of the Scottish banking system and Scottish banks would have no access to Bank of England reserves to replace these funds. To meet the demand for sterling in Scotland the Scottish Central bank would need to sell sterling denominated bonds to raise sufficient foreign exchange reserves to support the regime.”

The access to BoE funds means ongoing access, once we separate and take our share then that's it, it's not our bank anymore.

What am I missing here? If using Sterling would cost iScotland £10Bn per year (as opposed to simply having the need for a £10Bn buffer), does the UK not currently 'lose' 10 times more, ie. £100Bn per year against reserves of £181Bn?

Why would an independent Scotland have this problem whereas the UK doesn't?

As I say i'm no expert so I might be wide of the mark.

[JeMeSouviens]

Everyone loves a good bit of unscientific anecdotal evidence right? I met a couple of old colleagues last night, both strongly No/Remain. They have turned into one Yes and a switherer.

It's on. :wink:

[JeMeSouviens]

What am I missing here? If using Sterling would cost iScotland £10Bn per year (as opposed to simply having the need for a £10Bn buffer), does the UK not currently 'lose' 10 times more, ie. £100Bn per year against reserves of £181Bn?

Why would an independant Scotland have this problem whereas the UK doesn't?

As I say i'm no expert so I might be wide of the mark.

I'll give you the answer shortly, just waiting to see if anyone else actually knows. <sound of cut'n'paste machine going into frenzy> :wink:

[James310]

What am I missing here? If using Sterling would cost iScotland £10Bn per year (as opposed to simply having the need for a £10Bn buffer), does the UK not currently 'lose' 10 times more, ie. £100Bn per year against reserves of £181Bn?

Why would an independent Scotland have this problem whereas the UK doesn't?

As I say i'm no expert so I might be wide of the mark.

The UK is not sterlingised. It does not use the currency of a foreign country, we will.

[JeMeSouviens]

The UK is not sterlingised. It does not use the currency of a foreign country, we will.

... and specifically why is that significant?

[WeeRussell]

The UK is not sterlingised. It does not use the currency of a foreign country, we will.

I'm definitely not as up on currency etc as yourself or many others on here, so genuine question on what seems like an old argument for me.

What is it about currency that makes our bid for independence a no-go, that wasn't an issue (or at least not one that couldn't be overcome) for every single other country in history that has went independent?

[JeMeSouviens]

I'm definitely not as up on currency etc as yourself or many others on here, so genuine question on what seems like an old argument for me.

What is it about currency that makes our bid for independence a no-go, that wasn't an issue (or at least not one that couldn't be overcome) for every single other country in history that has went independent?

I seriously doubt that's true.

[WeeRussell]

I seriously doubt that's true.

:greengrin I was going to say I'll take that as a compliment....

[James310]

Well, I am not an accountant but from the £18bn deducted the £10bn leaves £8bn reserves in year one. A proper level of investment will grow that, don't ask what level of growth because I'm not personally interested in the market but don't believe that it's likely to be impossible.

Now, that's a start, from someone who knows diddlysquat about government finances. If you want to give an alternative view of how you want to grow an investment strategy then please feel free.

To grow £8BN into £10BN that's a return of 25%, then your £10BN for year 2 is gone.

So spending cuts, tax increases or something else


The Growth Commission (based on GERs so unsure if it's a credible report or not) has public spending at 1% less than GDP that equates to a real term cut in public spending. So cut public services seems to be the way forward.

[James310]

... and specifically why is that significant?

Because an independent Scotland will and based on the article and analysis by the experts we won't have enough money.

Feel free to rebut his analysis, but the numbers Ee too big does not cut it.

[JeMeSouviens]

Because an independent Scotland will and based on the article and analysis by the experts we won't have enough money.

Feel free to rebut his analysis, but the numbers Ee too big does not cut it.

"Based on the article and analysis by the experts" :faf:

[cabbageandribs1875]

"Based on the article and analysis by the experts" :faf:



our experts say differently, i know which experts i want to listen to :agree:

[Peevemor]

To grow £8BN into £10BN that's a return of 25%, then your £10BN for year 2 is gone.

So spending cuts, tax increases or something else


The Growth Commission (based on GERs so unsure if it's a credible report or not) has public spending at 1% less than GDP that equates to a real term cut in public spending. So cut public services seems to be the way forward.

Oil revenue, or do we just ignore that too?

[Fife-Hibee]

A lot of "i'm not an economist, but..." stuff going on here.

Sums up the whole independence debate really.

[Ozyhibby]

I'm definitely not as up on currency etc as yourself or many others on here, so genuine question on what seems like an old argument for me.

What is it about currency that makes our bid for independence a no-go, that wasn't an issue (or at least not one that couldn't be overcome) for every single other country in history that has went independent?

We’re Scottish. Running our own country is too much for us. We need England to look after us and make sure we don’t do anything silly.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[James310]

Oil revenue, or do we just ignore that too?

If oil price is booming then maybe, it's not though.

This year we got over £1BN in oil revenues, the year before it was £36M. Like the White Paper proved you cannot rely on oil, if we had and based on the White Paper we would have been £30BN short in a few years after independence.

[JeMeSouviens]

What am I missing here? If using Sterling would cost iScotland £10Bn per year (as opposed to simply having the need for a £10Bn buffer), does the UK not currently 'lose' 10 times more, ie. £100Bn per year against reserves of £181Bn?

Why would an independent Scotland have this problem whereas the UK doesn't?

As I say i'm no expert so I might be wide of the mark.

Ok, now that we've seen you're not going to get a decent answer anywhere else. :greengrin

The problem he's highlighting is that if Scotland uses someone else's currency and has a current account deficit* (imports > exports), how do you maintain money in circulation? You can't just fire up the printing press as per the central banking norm.

I agree with Ron McDon on this btw. Our own currency asap is the way forward.


* hilariously our resident "expert" conceded the £16Bn estimate for current account deficit was too high, presumably because they don't know it's not the same thing as fiscal deficit. :greengrin


Disclaimer - although vaguely numerate, I am not an economist and tbh you'd be as well listening to a passing dog food salesman. :wink:

[James310]

Ok, now that we've seen you're not going to get a decent answer anywhere else. :greengrin

The problem he's highlighting is that if Scotland uses someone else's currency and has a current account deficit* (imports > exports), how do you maintain money in circulation? You can't just fire up the printing press as per the central banking norm.

I agree with Ron McDon on this btw. Our own currency asap is the way forward.


* hilariously our resident "expert" conceded the £16Bn estimate for current account deficit was too high, presumably because they don't know it's not the same thing as fiscal deficit. :greengrin

Funny enough I did, but could not find anything to prove it was a current account deficit.

I have never once claimed to be an expert, if I have please show me as I am sure you can back it up, what I do claim is too many people just dismiss the whole issue and think it's all rather simple. That's all.

[Moulin Yarns]

So cut public services seems to be the way forward.

You should be happy with that, following tory policy.

Imagine for a moment that you are Ruth Davidson in 10 years time when she has had a change of mind and rode into Holyrood on the back of a landslide vote for Conservative party and has to rescue the independent Scotland from snp cuts.

What would Ruth do?

[James310]

We’re Scottish. Running our own country is too much for us. We need England to look after us and make sure we don’t do anything silly.


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You said that not me.

We could do whatever we want, nothing stopping us. But it's sensible to understand the costs and implications of doing so. We need to make informed decisions don't we.

[CloudSquall]

If oil price is booming then maybe, it's not though.

This year we got over £1BN in oil revenues, the year before it was £36M. Like the White Paper proved you cannot rely on oil, if we had and based on the White Paper we would have been £30BN short in a few years after independence.

I think that is an argument to follow Norway's example in oil revenue management, a country that ironically has to try to stop it's currency from being too strong.

[Peevemor]

Ok, now that we've seen you're not going to get a decent answer anywhere else. :greengrin

The problem he's highlighting is that if Scotland uses someone else's currency and has a current account deficit* (imports > exports), how do you maintain money in circulation? You can't just fire up the printing press as per the central banking norm.

I agree with Ron McDon on this btw. Our own currency asap is the way forward.


* hilariously our resident "expert" conceded the £16Bn estimate for current account deficit was too high, presumably because they don't know it's not the same thing as fiscal deficit. :greengrin


Disclaimer - although vaguely numerate, I am not an economist and tbh you'd be as well listening to a passing dog food salesman. :wink:

And is it a given that iScotland will have a trade deficit?

[WeeRussell]

You said that not me.

We could do whatever we want, nothing stopping us. But it's sensible to understand the costs and implications of doing so. We need to make informed decisions don't we.

Could you give me your answer in that case, please?

As right now I'm willing to accept Oz's :agree:

[Moulin Yarns]

If oil price is booming then maybe, it's not though.

This year we got over £1BN in oil revenues, the year before it was £36M. Like the White Paper proved you cannot rely on oil, if we had and based on the White Paper we would have been £30BN short in a few years after independence.

This year the UK government got the £1bn, Scotland would take a different route.

[CloudSquall]

And is it a given that iScotland will have a trade deficit?

That was a point I was about to make, Scotland is regularly in a trade surplus due to it's level of exports, typically the only part of the UK in trade surplus.

The demand for a scottish currency to buy our goods makes it hard for me to believe we'd be on par with Venuzeula's currency value.

[JeMeSouviens]

And is it a given that iScotland will have a trade deficit?

tbh, it's not something I've looked into. The UK as a whole position has been bad for years, so I expect so.

[JeMeSouviens]

That was a point I was about to make, Scotland is regularly in a trade surplus due to it's level of exports, typically the only part of the UK in trade surplus.

The demand for a scottish currency to buy our goods makes it hard for me to believe we'd be on par with Venuzeula's currency value.

I don't think that includes trade currently internal to the UK.

[CloudSquall]

Some data from google, Jan - Sept 2018 Scotland had a trade surplus of 4.2 billion, up 6.2%,

https://thoughtcontrolscotland.com/2018/12/07/scotlands-exports-boom-to-keep-our-trade-surplus-high/

Edit: Further data from 2017 https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-43335573

[James310]

I'm definitely not as up on currency etc as yourself or many others on here, so genuine question on what seems like an old argument for me.

What is it about currency that makes our bid for independence a no-go, that wasn't an issue (or at least not one that couldn't be overcome) for every single other country in history that has went independent?

Who is saying it's a no go? Not me.

Could Scotland launch its own currency, of course it could.

What we need though is to understand the costs and implications of that, to do that we look at the analysis. There is the SNPs own Growth Commission report which explains in detail about Sterlingisation and then 6 tests that need to be met.

It's not a case of it not being possible, it's a case of understand what it means. As we can see it's not simple, it's complicated.

[James310]

https://theferret.scot/scotland-uk-country-export-import/

[WeeRussell]

Who is saying it's a no go? Not me.

Could Scotland launch its own currency, of course it could.

What we need though is to understand the costs and implications of that, to do that we look at the analysis. There is the SNPs own Growth Commission report which explains in detail about Sterlingisation and then 6 tests that need to be met.

It's not a case of it not being possible, it's a case of understand what it means. As we can see it's not simple, it's complicated.

I thought you had stated earlier in the thread that expert analysis has proved we can't afford it. If I've picked you up wrong then apologies - if not, my question is as before, what is it about us or our currency which means we won't manage independence - like every single other country in the world's history has managed and thrived upon?

Of course it's complicated. Nobody ever said politics was easy. You're not telling me you post repeatedly on here simply to make people understand that it's complicated?

[CloudSquall]

https://theferret.scot/scotland-uk-country-export-import/

"This does not include the potential value of Scotland’s oil and gas reserves, which are not counted as a Scottish export but rather a UK export not tied to a region. It is also noted that the lack of a trade border for Scotland means particularly imports to Scotland can be hard to measure accurately.

We must also take into account that the RTS statistics also only measure trade in goods, but not services.

This is important because services, which includes things like financial activities and administration, make up a significant part of the UK’s economy, and is the largest part of Scotland’s exports at 49 per cent in 2016."

[Peevemor]

https://theferret.scot/scotland-uk-country-export-import/

The problem is that we don't seem to have any accurate figures for internal trade, nor any accurate projections for trade with a potential no-deal rUK.

[Killiehibbie]

I thought you had stated earlier in the thread that expert analysis has proved we can't afford it. If I've picked you up wrong then apologies - if not, my question is as before, what is it about us or our currency which means we won't manage independence - like every single other country in the world's history has managed and thrived upon?

Of course it's complicated. Nobody ever said politics was easy. You're not telling me you post repeatedly on here simply to make people understand that it's complicated?

How many countries are actually thriving? The last time i looked only Germany of the 10 biggest economies had a surplus.

I would hope we could do at least half as well as Norway with beer at a quarter of their price:wink:

[CloudSquall]

In any case I don't think we are going to have a 100% clear view on Scottish finances, imports, exports, expenditure, revenue etc until everything is going through Edinburgh and not London.

[James310]

I thought you had stated earlier in the thread that expert analysis has proved we can't afford it. If I've picked you up wrong then apologies - if not, my question is as before, what is it about us or our currency which means we won't manage independence - like every single other country in the world's history has managed and thrived upon?

Of course it's complicated. Nobody ever said politics was easy.

If you can't afford something you go bust eventually.

If there was a country that had the same circumstances then maybe it could be a valid comparison, I don't know another country that for example used a foreign countries currency and relied on a foreign countries central bank to set monetary policy and interest rates and also fixed it's currency against another currency at the same time. Did Slovakia and the likes follow that path?

As far as I am aware it's a unique set of circumstances to go from our currency now, to being sterlingised and then to launch our own new currency, so 3 currencies in the space of how many years.

If the plan was to go straight to the Euro there is a set path for that, it's laid out in EU law. What is being proposed is unique.


Maybe it will all be fine, but it's sensible to be open and honest about it and understand the implications.

So far I have seen numerous attacks on the author of the article, but no serious attempts to rebut his analysis with numbers or data to prove him wrong.

[JeMeSouviens]

Ireland used £ sterling from 1922-28 then pegged its own punt to sterling at 1:1 for 50 years.

Czechoslovakia's koruna split into Czech and Slovak Koruna's the year after their velvet divorce. Afaik they were allowed to float.

Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania all continued to use Russian roubles on regaining independence in 1991. They all introduced new currencies, the last being Lithuania just under 2 years later.

[Moulin Yarns]

Ireland used £ sterling from 1922-28 then pegged its own punt to sterling at 1:1 for 50 years.

Czechoslovakia's koruna split into Czech and Slovak Koruna's the year after their velvet divorce. Afaik they were allowed to float.

Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania all continued to use Russian roubles on regaining independence in 1991. They all introduced new currencies, the last being Lithuania just under 2 years later.

Aye, but they don't have to deal with the Bank of England, or Sterling, or the negativity around independence.

[James310]

Why don't the SNP just release a big booklet with all these examples of other countries and how they did it and how we can copy them? Seriously it would shut people like me up.

Why not?

[Ozyhibby]

Ireland used £ sterling from 1922-28 then pegged its own punt to sterling at 1:1 for 50 years.

Czechoslovakia's koruna split into Czech and Slovak Koruna's the year after their velvet divorce. Afaik they were allowed to float.

Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania all continued to use Russian roubles on regaining independence in 1991. They all introduced new currencies, the last being Lithuania just under 2 years later.

I bet all those countries wished they had never went independent because it was all just too hard. It’s amazing they haven’t all gone bust.


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[James310]

I bet all those countries wished they had never went independent because it was all just too hard. It’s amazing they haven’t all gone bust.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Being a fan of Ireland you should know that Ireland did go bust, it was bailed out in 2010 to the tune of €85BN.

[Moulin Yarns]

Ireland used £ sterling from 1922-28 then pegged its own punt to sterling at 1:1 for 50 years.

Czechoslovakia's koruna split into Czech and Slovak Koruna's the year after their velvet divorce. Afaik they were allowed to float.

Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania all continued to use Russian roubles on regaining independence in 1991. They all introduced new currencies, the last being Lithuania just under 2 years later.

We can't compare too wee, too poor, too stupid, Scotland to these basket cases. I mean, come on, look at those figures.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Scotland


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Lithuania


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Latvia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Estonia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_Czech_Republic

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Slovakia

for comparison

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_United_Kingdom

[Ozyhibby]

Being a fan of Ireland you should know that Ireland did go bust, it was bailed out in 2010 to the tune of €85BN.

I’m a big fan of how they managed to pay it all back ahead of schedule and are now running a surplus.
How is the UK getting on with paying back our bailout? Or are we still borrowing more every year?


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[Peevemor]

Why don't the SNP just release a big booklet with all these examples of other countries and how they did it and how we can copy them? Seriously it would shut people like me up.

Why not?I'm sure they will when what form Brexit is to take is established (it still may not even happen).

We've seen with the current Brexit shambles what happens when the correct information isn't available at the time of making a decision (referendum). This was also a problem during the last indyref, where some people had too many doubts to take the plunge.

It's obvious that this is why the SNP are waiting to propose a date for indyref 2.

I'm certain that the SNP will leave people in little doubt as to what exactly they'll be voting for, leaving people to make a more informed choice than last time, with far fewer grey areas.

[James310]

I’m a big fan of how they managed to pay it all back ahead of schedule and are now running a surplus.
How is the UK getting on with paying back our bailout? Or are we still borrowing more every year?


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They were still bailed out as they were bust, contradicting what you said.

No idea, not relevant to the conversation. Google will tell you if you are interested.

[Ozyhibby]

They were still bailed out as they were bust, contradicting what you said.

No idea, not relevant to the conversation. Google will tell you if you are interested.

Were they bust or did they just borrow some money while they were short and have since paid it all back?
Seems the Irish are quite happy with their independence.


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[James310]

I'm sure they will when what form Brexit is to take is established (it still may not even happen).

We've seen with the current Brexit shambles what happens when the correct information isn't available at the time of making a decision (referendum). This was also a problem during the last indyref, where some people had too many doubts to take the plunge.

It's obvious that this is why the SNP are waiting to propose a date for indyref 2.

I'm certain that the SNP will leave people in little doubt as to what exactly they'll be voting for, leaving people to make a more informed choice than last time, with far fewer grey areas.

The Growth Commission report does all that. It has a currency plan in it and everything, I must have missed the pages when it said let's just copy all these other countries.

Seriously, if all these other countries can do it and our circumstances are the same or similar why not just release a big **** off booklet explaining this. Would close the debate down dead, problem solved.

Maybe the SNP actually agree with me and think it's not similar at all, maybe that's why they have a different plan.

The GC remit was:

"To assess projections for Scotland’s economy and public finances, consider the implications
for our economy and finances under different potential governance scenarios, and make
recommendations for policy on:
• Measures to boost economic growth and improve Scotland's public finances - both now
in the aftermath of the EU referendum and in the context of independence
• The potential for and best use of savings from UK programmes in the event of
independence, such as Trident
• The range of transitional cost and benefits associated with independence and
arrangements for dealing with future revenue windfalls, including future North Sea
revenues.

1.3 In addition, the Commission was asked to take account of the recommendations of the
2013 Fiscal Commission reports, and the outcome of the EU referendum, and consider the
most appropriate monetary policy arrangements to underpin a programme for sustainable
growth in an independent Scotland."

It's all there, ratified at SNP conferences.

[James310]

Were they bust or did they just borrow some money while they were short and have since paid it all back?
Seems the Irish are quite happy with their independence.


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They were bust, their government admitted it at the time. Without the bail out money they would not have coped.

I agree they have done very well since, and have benefitted massively from the EU.

[Ozyhibby]

Ireland gdp per capita =£79k
Scotland gdp per capita = £43k
The union dividend in action.


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[Moulin Yarns]

The Growth Commission report does all that. It has a currency plan in it and everything, I must have missed the pages when it said let's just copy all these other countries.

Seriously, if all these other countries can do it and our circumstances are the same or similar why not just release a big **** off booklet explaining this. Would close the debate down dead, problem solved.

Maybe the SNP actually agree with me and think it's not similar at all, maybe that's why they have a different plan.

The GC remit was:

"To assess projections for Scotland’s economy and public finances, consider the implications
for our economy and finances under different potential governance scenarios, and make
recommendations for policy on:
• Measures to boost economic growth and improve Scotland's public finances - both now
in the aftermath of the EU referendum and in the context of independence
• The potential for and best use of savings from UK programmes in the event of
independence, such as Trident
• The range of transitional cost and benefits associated with independence and
arrangements for dealing with future revenue windfalls, including future North Sea
revenues.

1.3 In addition, the Commission was asked to take account of the recommendations of the
2013 Fiscal Commission reports, and the outcome of the EU referendum, and consider the
most appropriate monetary policy arrangements to underpin a programme for sustainable
growth in an independent Scotland."

It's all there, ratified at SNP conferences.

Not everyone that believes in an independent Scotland agrees with or supports the SNP. Just like not everyone that does not believe in an independent Scotland agrees with or supports the Tories.

While the SNP are the drivers for independence there will always be more opposition, were they to take a step back and allow a cross party/all party/no party Constitutional convention lead the next campaign I for one believe support would be stronger as it would appeal to a wider demographic, maybe even you.

[Peevemor]

The Growth Commission report does all that. It has a currency plan in it and everything, I must have missed the pages when it said let's just copy all these other countries.

Seriously, if all these other countries can do it and our circumstances are the same or similar why not just release a big **** off booklet explaining this. Would close the debate down dead, problem solved.

Maybe the SNP actually agree with me and think it's not similar at all, maybe that's why they have a different plan.

The GC remit was:

"To assess projections for Scotland’s economy and public finances, consider the implications
for our economy and finances under different potential governance scenarios, and make
recommendations for policy on:
• Measures to boost economic growth and improve Scotland's public finances - both now
in the aftermath of the EU referendum and in the context of independence
• The potential for and best use of savings from UK programmes in the event of
independence, such as Trident
• The range of transitional cost and benefits associated with independence and
arrangements for dealing with future revenue windfalls, including future North Sea
revenues.

1.3 In addition, the Commission was asked to take account of the recommendations of the
2013 Fiscal Commission reports, and the outcome of the EU referendum, and consider the
most appropriate monetary policy arrangements to underpin a programme for sustainable
growth in an independent Scotland."

It's all there, ratified at SNP conferences.Accurate forecasts are impossible until Brexit is either finalised or cancelled. The SNP won't try to hold a referendum until the outcome of Brexit is known.

[Moulin Yarns]

Not everyone that believes in an independent Scotland agrees with or supports the SNP. Just like not everyone that does not believe in an independent Scotland agrees with or supports the Tories.

While the SNP are the drivers for independence there will always be more opposition, were they to take a step back and allow a cross party/all party/no party Constitutional convention lead the next campaign I for one believe support would be stronger as it would appeal to a wider demographic, maybe even you.

I'll go further and say there are Labour supporters of Independence, Liberal Democrat supporters of independence, even Ranger supporters for independence. I just don't know if there are any Tories for independence. Well, what do you know, there are.

https://twitter.com/yestories?lang=en


You've got to love their recent tweets....

https://twitter.com/stephenfarrow/status/1167406004549619712

https://twitter.com/YesTories/status/1167415600165076992

[ronaldo7]

Ireland gdp per capita =£79k
Scotland gdp per capita = £43k
The union dividend in action.


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It's like some who will not believe the figures, and they're just made up. :wink:

[Just Alf]

Not everyone that believes in an independent Scotland agrees with or supports the SNP. Just like not everyone that does not believe in an independent Scotland agrees with or supports the Tories.

While the SNP are the drivers for independence there will always be more opposition, were they to take a step back and allow a cross party/all party/no party Constitutional convention lead the next campaign I for one believe support would be stronger as it would appeal to a wider demographic, maybe even you.You're 2nd paragraph is exactly why arguing about what's in the growth commission/SNP conference currency plans, is a flawed path, it's the SNP driven view.
In an iScotland the actual path forward will be decided with the input from all sides, their level of influence dependent on their performance in the 1st Holyrood election.

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[Ozyhibby]

https://www.spectator.co.uk/2019/08/why-no-one-ever-moves-back-to-london/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

This article is not really about independence but it does mention it and makes a good point.


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[Fife-Hibee]

If oil price is booming then maybe, it's not though.

This year we got over £1BN in oil revenues, the year before it was £36M. Like the White Paper proved you cannot rely on oil, if we had and based on the White Paper we would have been £30BN short in a few years after independence.

The year before, Norway got over £23BN.

Our oil revenue intake is low, because the UK Government is keeping it low.

[James310]

Not everyone that believes in an independent Scotland agrees with or supports the SNP. Just like not everyone that does not believe in an independent Scotland agrees with or supports the Tories.

While the SNP are the drivers for independence there will always be more opposition, were they to take a step back and allow a cross party/all party/no party Constitutional convention lead the next campaign I for one believe support would be stronger as it would appeal to a wider demographic, maybe even you.

But nearly everyone who supports Independence votes SNP.

I keep hearing there will be alternatives, but where are they? If we are being asked to vote on a plan for Independence then it's only coming from one party. Only one party will be taken seriously in the lead up to another referendum.

I don't understand your second point, are you suggesting that parties opposed to Independence would take part in talks about what the future of an Independent Scotland would look like?

[Moulin Yarns]

You're 2nd paragraph is exactly why arguing about what's in the growth commission/SNP conference currency plans, is a flawed path, it's the SNP driven view.
In an iScotland the actual path forward will be decided with the input from all sides, their level of influence dependent on their performance in the 1st Holyrood election.

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Yet, some people believe it to be the be all and end all of the independence strategy. Imagine if we could get a room full of ordinary people, from all walks of life and political hues, and they came up with a workable strategy for Scotland.

https://www.citizensassembly.scot/



The Citizens’ Assembly of Scotland will comprise up to 130 citizens selected randomly to be broadly representative of the adult population.
It will meet over six weekends from 26/27 October 2019 to 24/26 April 2020 to consider:


what kind of country are we seeking to build
how best can we overcome the challenges Scotland and the world face in the 21st century, including those arising from Brexit, and
what further work should be carried out to give us the information we need to make informed choices about the future of the country

The independent conveners are former Labour MEP David Martin and third sector leader Kate Wimpress.


But still, some people refuse to take part because of their political differences! Then they bleat about how one sided it is.

[Moulin Yarns]

But nearly everyone who supports Independence votes SNP.

I keep hearing there will be alternatives, but where are they? If we are being asked to vote on a plan for Independence then it's only coming from one party. Only one party will be taken seriously in the lead up to another referendum.

I don't understand your second point, are you suggesting that parties opposed to Independence would take part in talks about what the future of an Independent Scotland would look like?

Where is your evidence for that sweeping statement? You do know that not every SNP supporter wants independence?


And yes. See my post above. NO mention of the SNP in the citizens assembly, led by a Labour MP.

[James310]

Ireland gdp per capita =£79k
Scotland gdp per capita = £43k
The union dividend in action.


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Ireland has done very well on the back of being a tax haven for multi nationals, we don't want to go down that path again about whether it's right or wrong.

[Just Alf]

But nearly everyone who supports Independence votes SNP.

I keep hearing there will be alternatives, but where are they? If we are being asked to vote on a plan for Independence then it's only coming from one party. Only one party will be taken seriously in the lead up to another referendum.

I don't understand your second point, are you suggesting that parties opposed to Independence would take part in talks about what the future of an Independent Scotland would look like?Re your 2nd paragraph, that can *only* come from the other parties and folks with differing views, at the moment none are willing to offer a differing view on a 'what if it did happen' basis.

Look in the mirror for exhibit 1... :greengrin



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[James310]

Where is your evidence for that sweeping statement? You do know that not every SNP supporter wants independence?


And yes. See my post above. NO mention of the SNP in the citizens assembly, led by a Labour MP.

At the last Scottish Elections the SNP got just over a million votes, the next Independence supporting party got just over 13,000. There is my evidence.

I wonder if the SNP would join talks set up to explore how to grow Scotlands relationship with the rest of the UK as part of the Union. I can just see the likes of you and R7 turning up to that event with an open mind....

Does a SNP supporter who does not want Independence really exist?

[Moulin Yarns]

Re your 2nd paragraph, that can *only* come from the other parties and folks with differing views, at the moment none are willing to offer a differing view on a 'what if it did happen' basis.

Look in the mirror for exhibit 1... :greengrin



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As seen above


Yet, some people believe it to be the be all and end all of the independence strategy. Imagine if we could get a room full of ordinary people, from all walks of life and political hues, and they came up with a workable strategy for Scotland.

https://www.citizensassembly.scot/



But still, some people refuse to take part because of their political differences! Then they bleat about how one sided it is.

You will notice I didn't say independent Scotland, that is not the remit of the assembly, just a better Scotland going forward.

[James310]

Re your 2nd paragraph, that can *only* come from the other parties and folks with differing views, at the moment none are willing to offer a differing view on a 'what if it did happen' basis.

Look in the mirror for exhibit 1... :greengrin



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Because it's played out as you want A or B, there is no middle ground. You can't be half or three quarters independent.

[Moulin Yarns]

At the last Scottish Elections the SNP got just over a million votes, the next Independence supporting party got just over 13,000. There is my evidence.

I wonder if the SNP would join talks set up to explore how to grow Scotlands relationship with the rest of the UK as part of the Union. I can just see the likes of you and R7 turning up to that event with an open mind....


Does a SNP supporter who does not want Independence really exist?

How do you count the Labour, LibDem and even Tories that support independence in a proportional representation type election? You didn't

OH LOOK, the next independence supporting party got 163,500 votes across the election.


The bit in bold, at least we would turn up, you, having made up your mind, would moan about it not being representative of the people.

Your last sentence, yes they do. I spoke to a few when going round the doors campaigning in 2016.

[James310]

As seen above



You will notice I didn't say independent Scotland, that is not the remit of the assembly, just a better Scotland going forward.

Joanna Cherry disagrees. It's the perfect way to move Scotland forward towards Independence according to her.

[Moulin Yarns]

Joanna Cherry disagrees. It's the perfect way to move Scotland forward towards Independence according to her.

But she is not chairing or leading the assembly, so I will just ignore what she says in this instance, what does Ruth say?

[Fife-Hibee]

At the last Scottish Elections the SNP got just over a million votes, the next Independence supporting party got just over 13,000. There is my evidence.

I wonder if the SNP would join talks set up to explore how to grow Scotlands relationship with the rest of the UK as part of the Union. I can just see the likes of you and R7 turning up to that event with an open mind....

Does a SNP supporter who does not want Independence really exist?

Over 40% of Labour voters in Scotland also back independence.

[James310]

How do you count the Labour, LibDem and even Tories that support independence in a proportional representation type election? You didn't

OH LOOK, the next independence supporting party got 163,500 votes across the election.


The bit in bold, at least we would turn up, you, having made up your mind, would moan about it not being representative of the people.

Your last sentence, yes they do. I spoke to a few when going round the doors campaigning in 2016.

If the citizens assemblies came to the conclusion that in actual fact people never wanted full on Independence but some kind of Devo Max type solution while remaining part of the UK, would the SNP accept that conclusion and drop their commitment to Independence. Would they ****.

[James310]

But she is not chairing or leading the assembly, so I will just ignore what she says in this instance, what does Ruth say?

She was the driving force behind it and the one who proposed it.

[Mon Dieu4]

If the citizens assemblies came to the conclusion that in actual fact people never wanted full on Independence but some kind of Devo Max type solution while remaining part of the UK, would the SNP accept that conclusion and drop their commitment to Independence. Would they ****.

Have we not already been promised devo max in 2014?

You could always have the tories or other parties call the SNP's bluff and stand on a manifesto of full fiscal autonomy and see how they get on, my guess is not too well

[Moulin Yarns]

She was the driving force behind it and the one who proposed it.

BUT, has nothing to do with the running of it. How many times do I need to repeat it before you get it?

You're in a right argumentative mood today, missing your leader?

[Callum_62]

Don't get all this angst

Independence is inevitable - be 1,5 or 10 years away it will happen

Knicker twisting is wholly unnecessary

Sent from my VOG-L29 using Tapatalk

[ronaldo7]

Wee Jimmy's going to blow a gasket around 5pm.

[ronaldo7]

At the last Scottish Elections the SNP got just over a million votes, the next Independence supporting party got just over 13,000. There is my evidence.

I wonder if the SNP would join talks set up to explore how to grow Scotlands relationship with the rest of the UK as part of the Union. I can just see the likes of you and R7 turning up to that event with an open mind....

Does a SNP supporter who does not want Independence really exist?

Yes.

Next question.:aok:

[Moulin Yarns]

Have we not already been promised devo max in 2014?

You could always have the tories or other parties call the SNP's bluff and stand on a manifesto of full fiscal autonomy and see how they get on, my guess is not too well

I don't know about you but I'm still waiting on the vow to be delivered.

[Moulin Yarns]

Wee Jimmy's going to blow a gasket around 5pm.


Has it anything to do with this?


Custodial sentences for Scots who put an upward inflection at the end of sentences. Discuss #shouldknowbetter

[Moulin Yarns]

Wee Jimmy's going to blow a gasket around 5pm.

Come on Ron, it's after 5. What is happening?

#prayforweejimmy

[James310]

I don't know about you but I'm still waiting on the vow to be delivered.

It has been.

https://www.heraldscotland.com/opinion/16152962.agenda-holyrood-must-mature-now-the-terms-of-the-vow-have-now-been-met/

[James310]

Come on Ron, it's after 5. What is happening?

#prayforweejimmy

Again, why the need to bring the conversation down to a piss take. You wanted adult conversation but then kick this nonsense off again.

Does it make you feel good? Are you looking for approval from your peers? Odd behavior again.

[Moulin Yarns]

It has been.

https://www.heraldscotland.com/opinion/16152962.agenda-holyrood-must-mature-now-the-terms-of-the-vow-have-now-been-met/

I don't remember the front page of the record saying that Scottish MPs would have reduced voting rights at Westminster? Must have missed that bit.


Anyway, the first part of the vow is still not in place.

That the Scottish Parliament shall be permanent. This has not been written into the constitution. I wonder why?

[Moulin Yarns]

Again, why the need to bring the conversation down to a piss take. You wanted adult conversation but then kick this nonsense off again.

Does it make you feel good? Are you looking for approval from your peers? Odd behavior again.

Wow! How do you figure I have brought the conversation down to a piss take?
Where have I been abusive?
Where's the piss take. I was replying to another post, there is no mention of you, unless you know otherwise.

You need to chill.

[James310]

I don't remember the front page of the record saying that Scottish MPs would have reduced voting rights at Westminster? Must have missed that bit.


Anyway, the first part of the vow is still not in place.

That the Scottish Parliament shall be permanent. This has not been written into the constitution. I wonder why?

Sorry, but I am not going to engage if you continually feel the need to take the piss. You obviously have a problem, I could of course take the piss myself as there have been plenty of opportunities and I am sure there would be many more as you present many on a daily basis.

Have a nice evening.

[Peevemor]

It has been.

https://www.heraldscotland.com/opinion/16152962.agenda-holyrood-must-mature-now-the-terms-of-the-vow-have-now-been-met/Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha...

[Moulin Yarns]

Sorry, but I am not going to engage if you continually feel the need to take the piss. You obviously have a problem, I could of course take the piss myself as there have been plenty of opportunities and I am sure there would be many more as you present many on a daily basis.

Have a nice evening.


I've Googled 'wee Jimmy' and there's wee Jimmy hat, wee Jimmy krankie, wee jimmies pub, wee Jimmy Sturgeon, and wee Jimmy krankie song.

I see nothing to take offence at.

[Moulin Yarns]

Wee Jimmy's going to blow a gasket around 5pm.

Ron, you need to explain?

[Hibrandenburg]

But nearly everyone who supports Independence votes SNP.

I keep hearing there will be alternatives, but where are they? If we are being asked to vote on a plan for Independence then it's only coming from one party. Only one party will be taken seriously in the lead up to another referendum.

I don't understand your second point, are you suggesting that parties opposed to Independence would take part in talks about what the future of an Independent Scotland would look like?

When you're asked to tick a box in the next referendum, I doubt you'll find SNP on any of the boxes. The greens have a vision for an independent Scotland and after any Yes vote then all parties will have to come to the table. You're vision of an SNP led dictatorship is pretty boring and quite ridiculous.

[Moulin Yarns]

When you're asked to tick a box in the next referendum, I doubt you'll find SNP on any of the boxes. The greens have a vision for an independent Scotland and after any Yes vote then all parties will have to come to the table. You're vision of an SNP led dictatorship is pretty boring and quite ridiculous.

👍

[Ozyhibby]

I don’t see myself voting SNP in an independent Scotland.


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[Just Alf]

I don’t see myself voting SNP in an independent Scotland.


Sent from my iPhone using TapatalkMe neither, unfortunately the other parties seem to be going out their way to make it difficult to vote for them... Hopefully that will change after independence as we really need a balance and effective opposition, of whatever persuasion at the time.

Sent from my SM-G935F using Tapatalk

[Ozyhibby]

Me neither, unfortunately the other parties seem to be going out their way to make it difficult to vote for them... Hopefully that will change after independence as we really need a balance and effective opposition, of whatever persuasion at the time.

Sent from my SM-G935F using Tapatalk

Until we have independence the SNP have my vote. After that, it’s up for grabs.


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[Peevemor]

Me neither, unfortunately the other parties seem to be going out their way to make it difficult to vote for them... Hopefully that will change after independence as we really need a balance and effective opposition, of whatever persuasion at the time.

Sent from my SM-G935F using TapatalkIndependent (ie. not governed from London) parties of whatever colour should give the SNP a run for their money.

I'm all for it.

[Just Alf]

Until we have independence the SNP have my vote. After that, it’s up for grabs.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Independent (ie. not governed from London) parties of whatever colour should give the SNP a run for their money.

I'm all for it.To be honest, even those currently London controlled will be a different animal in an iScotland when they can concentrate on what's best for their own constituents rather than what their party want to do elsewhere.

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[Peevemor]

To be honest, even those currently London controlled will be a different animal in an iScotland when they can concentrate on what's best for their own constituents rather than what their party want to do elsewhere.

Sent from my SM-G935F using TapatalkExactly, which is one of the reasons for the SNP's current popularity.

[Bangkok Hibby]

Until we have independence the SNP have my vote. After that, it’s up for grabs.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


And that in a nutshell is how it is. So simple, why dont people understand this?

[CloudSquall]

Personally I'm voting SNP for independence, after independence my vote is up for grabs, centre left or centre right, whoever has the best policies for me.

[ronaldo7]

Ron, you need to explain?

Sorry guys, but you're off on a tangent with this one.

Wee Jimmy the hun doon the garage is going to blow a gasket when he finds out who THE RANGERS have pulled today.

It just shows how some folk think it's all about them.

[Moulin Yarns]

Sorry guys, but you're off on a tangent with this one.

Wee Jimmy the hun doon the garage is going to blow a gasket when he finds out who THE RANGERS have pulled today.

It just shows how some folk think it's all about them.

👍

I knew it was far simpler than I thought.

#prayforweejimmy and #fthehuns

[The Harp Awakes]

Until we have independence the SNP have my vote. After that, it’s up for grabs.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

It would be interesting to see what the political chamber would be like in an independent Scotland. Predominantly left of centre I would expect but new political parties could emerge splitting the governing left wing party. Not even sure that the SNP would continue in its present form. The Greens would probably do well and the Tories would likely stand on a platform of reinstating the Union, which could have the effect of amassing the Unionist vote behind it; a bit like the SNP do with the nationalist vote today.

For me, SNP until independence then probably Green, although I'd likely vote tactically to keep the Tories/Unionists out if need be.

[Fife-Hibee]

I'll continue to vote SNP after independence. I wouldn't trust Labour, the Conservatives or the Lib Dems to do a competent job. In fact, I can see them all banding together in an attempt to run Scotlands economy into the ground to get us "reunited" again. They've lost my vote and a million others permanently.

[cabbageandribs1875]

after independence.....

any party seeking to rid this country of the stench of the monarchy

then mhairi black as our first president :thumbsup:

[1875godsgift]

after independence.....

any party seeking to rid this country of the stench of the monarchy

then mhairi black as our first president :thumbsup:

:agree:

Nationalise Balmoral, Holyrood and anything else those silver-spooned parasites claim to own and use them for the public good.

[Fife-Hibee]

:agree:

Nationalise Balmoral, Holyrood and anything else those silver-spooned parasites claim to own and use them for the public good.

Nationalise the new UK office in edinburgh and open it up for the homeless.

[Colr]

after independence.....

any party seeking to rid this country of the stench of the monarchy

then mhairi black as our first president :thumbsup:

There’s a point in this. The Royal Family costs about £70 million a year. This is paid on the profits from the Royal Estate most of which is generated in London. After independence, the limited profits from the estate in Scotland are unlikely to be sufficient, so they would be unaffordable.

[Ozyhibby]

There’s a point in this. The Royal Family costs about £70 million a year. This is paid on the profits from the Royal Estate most of which is generated in London. After independence, the limited profits from the estate in Scotland are unlikely to be sufficient, so they would be unaffordable.

Surely the rUK would have to pay for the monarchy after independence? Do Canada and Australia help pay for them now?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[stoneyburn hibs]

Nationalise the rain come independence.

[CloudSquall]

Are we really now going down the route of "Scotland couldn't afford a royal family post independence"?

If this is what the patter of Better Together 2 will be, bring it the f.. on :greengrin

[James310]

Sorry guys, but you're off on a tangent with this one.

Wee Jimmy the hun doon the garage is going to blow a gasket when he finds out who THE RANGERS have pulled today.

It just shows how some folk think it's all about them.

Have a wee read of the thread just posted by the Admins.

This is a relevant section for you and Moulin and maybe one or two others.

"We are not schoolchildren, name calling is not acceptable. Acting as a 'mob' to shout down and mock other posters is not acceptable. Continued harassment and bullying behaviour towards other posters is not acceptable"

Jimmy down the garage? You must think I am buttoned up the back.

Happy to have adult conversations but if you and a few others want to keep the piss take going then take notice of the above.

[lapsedhibee]

Have a wee read of the thread just posted by the Admins.

This is a relevant section for you and Moulin and maybe one or two others.

"We are not schoolchildren, name calling is not acceptable. Acting as a 'mob' to shout down and mock other posters is not acceptable. Continued harassment and bullying behaviour towards other posters is not acceptable"

Your pal Jimmy down the garage? You must think I am buttoned up the back.

Happy to have adult conversations but if you and a few others want to keep the piss take going then take notice of the above.

Did you read the bit about hibs.net being primarily a football forum?

[James310]

Did you read the bit about hibs.net being primarily a football forum?

Let's delete all the non football and Hibs threads then?

Why can't we have adult debate?

[lapsedhibee]

Let's delete all the non football and Hibs threads then?
Why can't we have adult debate?

I suppose adult debate means different things to different people. For some it would include the possibility of exploring ideas which might lead to them changing their mind about things. For others it would mean endlessly trawling the internet looking for facts to bolster their own preformed, fixed, opinions. Those two tribes rarely mix well.

[James310]

I suppose adult debate means different things to different people. For some it would include the possibility of exploring ideas which might lead to them changing their mind about things. For others it would mean endlessly trawling the internet looking for facts to bolster their own preformed, fixed, opinions. Those two tribes rarely mix well.

I get that I am unlikely to change my mind, there is no economic case for what you support. For everyone one of 'me' on this board though multiple that by about 50 who only ever see what they want to see and will also not consider the facts in front of them. I have been open about Brexit being a ****show, said Boris will be a disaster, said earlier this week that what Boris was doing with parliament was completely undemocratic and even conceded if it led to a Labour and SNP coalition then so be it.

You probably want me to be a Brexiteer who hates Johnny foreigner, when in fact I welcome immigration and have suggested Scotland should have full control over immigration.

You will just skim over that as it does not fit with your stereotype.

[Smartie]

I get that I am unlikely to change my mind, there is no economic case for what you support. For everyone one of 'me' on this board though multiple that by about 50 who only ever see what they want to see and will also not consider the facts in front of them. I have been open about Brexit being a ****show, said Boris will be a disaster, said earlier this week that what Boris was doing with parliament was completely undemocratic and even conceded if it led to a Labour and SNP coalition then so be it.

You probably want me to be a Brexiteer who hates Johnny foreigner, when in fact I welcome immigration and have suggested Scotland should have full control over immigration.

You will just skim over that as it does not fit with your stereotype.

Unlikely....but not impossible.......so, in the words of Lloyd Christmas, there's a chance then? :greengrin


https://youtu.be/wGdhc9k07Ms

I don't accept that there is not an economic case for independence. There are questions that need to be answered, I fully accept that, including your favourite one, the one about currency.

Nobody in favour of independence should shy away from these questions and I think it is delusional to think these questions have yet been fully answered. The cold hard fact remains that the proposal put to the country in 2014 was not appealing enough and didn't succeed - if there is to be success a second time then lessons will need to have been learned.

As you allude to in your post though, the economic case for the status quo is at best (for you) weakening and at worst evaporating.

There are a number of people on "your side" who are considering their position, people who would never have thought this imaginable only 5 years ago.

Mon the debate. I love the Holy Ground, in spite of what it can become on occasion.

[James310]

Unlikely....but not impossible.......so, in the words of Lloyd Christmas, there's a chance then? :greengrin

I don't accept that there is not an economic case for independence. There are questions that need to be answered, I fully accept that, including your favourite one, the one about currency.

Nobody in favour of independence should shy away from these questions and I think it is delusional to think these questions have yet been fully answered. The cold hard fact remains that the proposal put to the country in 2014 was not appealing enough and didn't succeed - if there is to be success a second time then lessons will need to have been learned.

As you allude to in your post though, the economic case for the status quo is at best (for you) weakening and at worst evaporating.

There are a number of people on "your side" who are considering their position, people who would never have thought this imaginable only 5 years ago.

Mon the debate. I love the Holy Ground, in spite of what it can become on occasion.

We will disagree on the economic case, the latest GERs showed that Scotland remaining in the Union is for the time being more beneficial for us. Public spending is higher in Scotland than anywhere else in the UK, I see that as a positive.

I am not so sure people are changing their mind, apart from one poll that had Yes in the lead then the trend is still very much a small majority for No. The slight uptick in Yes after Boris was appointed PM was pretty much expected, it will be interesting to see if that continues. I actually thought after the last few years and the appointment of Boris the lead would be greater, I know not many will admit it but there must be a little disappoint that Yes is not further in the lead after what has gone on the last 3 years.

Look, we had an adult conversation without calling each other names or asking that one of us is chucked off the board. So it is possible.

[Fife-Hibee]

We will disagree on the economic case, the latest GERs showed that Scotland remaining in the Union is for the time being more beneficial for us. Public spending is higher in Scotland than anywhere else in the UK, I see that as a positive.

What you really mean is the UK Government claims to spend more on the public in Scotland without providing a breakdown of the figures.

I don't see how having an unsustainable public spend figure because you allow another country to spend half of your tax revenues for you + borrow money in your name + without telling you what any of it is actually spent on can in any way be a positive.

You do understand what is meant by "public spending" don't you?

[Smartie]

We will disagree on the economic case, the latest GERs showed that Scotland remaining in the Union is for the time being more beneficial for us. Public spending is higher in Scotland than anywhere else in the UK, I see that as a positive.

I am not so sure people are changing their mind, apart from one poll that had Yes in the lead then the trend is still very much a small majority for No. The slight uptick in Yes after Boris was appointed PM was pretty much expected, it will be interesting to see if that continues. I actually thought after the last few years and the appointment of Boris the lead would be greater, I know not many will admit it but there must be a little disappoint that Yes is not further in the lead after what has gone on the last 3 years.

Look, we had an adult conversation without calling each other names or asking that one of us is chucked off the board. So it is possible.

This part was not so much based on poll results where people make a definitive statement about how they would intend to vote.

It's based more on anecdotal stuff, based on conversations with mates. I had thought it was just me but I was interested to read in an article by Sarah Smith on the BBC website (possibly in the aftermath of Ruth Davidson's resignation ) that she has anecdotally noticed whilst out on the streets more people are indicating that they would either be in favour of independence or are at least giving it more serious thought in view of recent happenings down South.

Of course, there are a million and one things that could happen over the next wee while that could blow people's voting intentions one way or the other.

I don't think there is a majority of favour of independence yet, the main reason why I am cooler on the idea of a second referendum than most (all?) other "nationalists". I do feel that there is a slow direction of travel in favour of it though, and I sense a thawing in the entrenched position of many in favour of the union.

[lapsedhibee]

I get that I am unlikely to change my mind, there is no economic case for what you support. For everyone one of 'me' on this board though multiple that by about 50 who only ever see what they want to see and will also not consider the facts in front of them. I have been open about Brexit being a ****show, said Boris will be a disaster, said earlier this week that what Boris was doing with parliament was completely undemocratic and even conceded if it led to a Labour and SNP coalition then so be it.

You probably want me to be a Brexiteer who hates Johnny foreigner, when in fact I welcome immigration and have suggested Scotland should have full control over immigration.

You will just skim over that as it does not fit with your stereotype.

You are mistaken if you think, as you appear to be suggesting here, that unionists are automatically perceived as brexiters, let alone xenophobic brexiters. Not grown up to need to put everything into simple little boxes like that imo. Highly divisive and detrimental to progress.

[James310]

What you really mean is the UK Government claims to spend more on the public in Scotland without providing a breakdown of the figures.

I don't see how having an unsustainable public spend figure because you allow another country to spend half of your tax revenues for you + borrow money in your name + without telling you what any of it is actually spent on can in any way be a positive.

You do understand what is meant by "public spending" don't you?

If you deny the figures are even close to reflecting the current economic position then there is little point engaging in debate, everything I say will be countered with your view the figures are made up and wrong.

As a reminder the GERs are produced by the Scottish Government themselves. When they showed a surplus for Scotland they seemed to be a perfectly reasonable analysis of the economic position and championed by the leadership team of the SNP, now they show a deficit somehow they are made up.

Alex Salmond called GERs the "Gold Standard' and they form the basis of the White Paper and the Growth Commission Report.

The figures are compiled in compliance with the code of practice for national Statistics.

[James310]

You are mistaken if you think, as you appear to be suggesting here, that unionists are automatically perceived as brexiters, let alone xenophobic brexiters. Not grown up to need to put everything into simple little boxes like that imo. Highly divisive and detrimental to progress.

You must be reading a different board to me then, little englanders, bigots, racists etc are all commonly used here to describe Brexiteers.

[Peevemor]

If you deny the figures are even close to reflecting the current economic position then there is little point engaging in debate, everything I say will be countered with your view the figures are made up and wrong.

As a reminder the GERs are produced by the Scottish Government themselves. When they showed a surplus for Scotland they seemed to be a perfectly reasonable analysis of the economic position and championed by the leadership team of the SNP, now they show a deficit somehow they are made up.

Alex Salmond called GERs the "Gold Standard' and they form the basis of the White Paper and the Growth Commission Report.

The figures are compiled in compliance with the code of practice for national Statistics.But surely even you can see that Brexit, especially without a deal, wouldn't just shift the goalposts - it would put them in front of the dugouts (that's a football reference in case you don't know).

[makaveli1875]

You must be reading a different board to me then, little englanders, bigots, racists etc are all commonly used here to describe Brexiteers.

They all drive white vans too

[ronaldo7]

Have a wee read of the thread just posted by the Admins.

This is a relevant section for you and Moulin and maybe one or two others.

"We are not schoolchildren, name calling is not acceptable. Acting as a 'mob' to shout down and mock other posters is not acceptable. Continued harassment and bullying behaviour towards other posters is not acceptable"

Jimmy down the garage? You must think I am buttoned up the back.

Happy to have adult conversations but if you and a few others want to keep the piss take going then take notice of the above.

This thread, sub forum, or forum is not all about you.

The post to which you referred, had nothing about you, I thought your name was, John or Janet.

Nice to know you button up the back though.

From someone who hounds, female MP,s for a pastime, you really need to harden up a bit.

I'll let you get back to your SNP bad mode, I'm off out into the real world.

Have a nice day now. 🌞

[James310]

But surely even you can see that Brexit, especially without a deal, wouldn't just shift the goalposts - it would put them in front of the dugouts (that's a football reference in case you don't know).

Can't help but have another dig. Your repeated attempts to have me silenced have not worked. Best all round if you just ignore what I say. Why would you be interested in what I say anyway.

If you want to have a grown up conversation then yes a no deal Brexit changes everything, I have been very consistent in saying that. I actually don't dismiss the experts and believe what they tell me, as I have nothing to counter that they they are not telling me the truth.

What it leads to I don't know. As another poster said it's uncharted territory.

[lapsedhibee]

You must be reading a different board to me then, little englanders, bigots, racists etc are all commonly used here to describe Brexiteers.

World of difference between suggesting that racists and xenophobes tend to be brexiters and suggesting that brexiters tend to be racists and xenophobes. Can't say I've particularly noticed either of these two different views on hibs.net recently, so yes we are reading different boards.

[James310]

This thread, sub forum, or forum is not all about you.

The post to which you referred, had nothing about you, I thought your name was, John or Janet.

Nice to know you button up the back though.

From someone who hounds, female MP,s for a pastime, you really need to harden up a bit.

I'll let you get back to your SNP bad mode, I'm off out into the real world.

Have a nice day now. 🌞

You really are pathetic, hounding female MPs? What are you on about. You must be following me about online which is really scary and creepy. You will have evidence of this hounding?

But you know what, you win. I am not going down this road day after day with you and the other small handful, so it's a long break for me from here, I am sure 99% will be delighted.

Have I really got to you so much that you need to stalk me online, that's some f***ed up stuff there.

If there is another referendum and if you lose again, have a look in the mirror as one of the main reasons for losing will be staring right at you.

[The Modfather]

Can't help but have another dig. Your repeated attempts to have me silenced have not worked. Best all round if you just ignore what I say. Why would you be interested in what I say anyway.

If you want to have a grown up conversation then yes a no deal Brexit changes everything, I have been very consistent in saying that. I actually don't dismiss the experts and believe what they tell me, as I have nothing to counter that they they are not telling me the truth.

What it leads to I don't know. As another poster said it's uncharted territory.

Any kind of Brexit is a game changer, no deal is simply at the extreme end. Project fear made a big play of the fact the only way to guarantee being in the EU was as part of the union.

For me, at a fundamental level it comes down to an independent Scotland that wants to be in the EU v a post Brexit Britain, moving further to the right with an increasing desire towards isolation.

There’s only so much that can definitively be debated in terms of economics (for both Independence & Brexit) as there are too many moving parts and conversations that can’t begin until post a yes vote. Both post Brexit Britain & an independent Scotland will survive. How prosperous, or not, either will be can’t be fully determined yet.

[Mibbes Aye]

Any kind of Brexit is a game changer, no deal is simply at the extreme end. Project fear made a big play of the fact the only way to guarantee being in the EU was as part of the union.

For me, at a fundamental level it comes down to an independent Scotland that wants to be in the EU v a post Brexit Britain, moving further to the right with an increasing desire towards isolation.

There’s only so much that can definitively be debated in terms of economics (for both Independence & Brexit) as there are too many moving parts and conversations that can’t begin until post a yes vote. Both post Brexit Britain & an independent Scotland will survive. How prosperous, or not, either will be can’t be fully determined yet.

Not disagreeing with anything you say. Just want to reiterate a point which is that almost half of Britain rejected Brexit. And many Scots and many SNP voters voted for Brexit.

If there was to be a separate Scottish state there was a sizeable element who want nothing to do with Brussels. Likewise, there are a huge amount of English people who never wanted to leave the EU in the first place.

It is a complex dynamic and I am very wary of a narrative being established that says the UK is being dragged down some mad Brexit path by Little Englanders and Scotland’s only salvation is independence. The reality is that there were plenty of people in Scotland happy to leave the EU.

Im not saying you are trying to establish a fake narrative but it is certainly out there.

[Hibbyradge]

Im not saying you are trying to establish a fake narrative but it is certainly out there.

It's all fake narrative just now.

It's all lies. It's all selective. It's all fake.

[Saturday Boy]

It's all fake narrative just now.

It's all lies. It's all selective. It's all fake.

That’s what all you conspiracy theorists say.


Or something 😳

[Cataplana]

Sorry if it's been discussed before, but I have a question on borders

If we were to become an independent nation, and member of the EU, how would a border operate with the rUK? Will we not be in much the same position as Eire, in that we will have a land border with our closest neighbour?

[Peevemor]

Sorry if it's been discussed before, but I have a question on borders

If we were to become an independent nation, and member of the EU, how would a border operate with the rUK? Will we not be in much the same position as Eire, in that we will have a land border with our closest neighbour?

Possibly, which is why I disagree when people say that Sturgeon wants a no deal Brexit. A hard border with England would be a negative for many in an indyref2.

[JeMeSouviens]

Sorry if it's been discussed before, but I have a question on borders

If we were to become an independent nation, and member of the EU, how would a border operate with the rUK? Will we not be in much the same position as Eire, in that we will have a land border with our closest neighbour?

Short answer: yes.

Goods/trade wise it pretty much depends on the deal (if any) between the EU and the UK, assuming Brexit happens and it's hard. Individuals/passport checks could be made much easier if we can agree a common travel area like Ireland has with the UK. So then the border would be like the Swiss/EU border, cars/people cross freely with no checks, trucks have to park up for inspections, paperwork etc.

A soft Brexit compromise where we're in the same customs territory or Brexit stopped altogether, then there could be a genuinely frictionless border as currently.

[Fife-Hibee]

Possibly, which is why I disagree when people say that Sturgeon wants a no deal Brexit. A hard border with England would be a negative for many in an indyref2.

They're not going to care when there's no food or medicine on the shelves.

[CloudSquall]

Not disagreeing with anything you say. Just want to reiterate a point which is that almost half of Britain rejected Brexit. And many Scots and many SNP voters voted for Brexit.

If there was to be a separate Scottish state there was a sizeable element who want nothing to do with Brussels. Likewise, there are a huge amount of English people who never wanted to leave the EU in the first place.

It is a complex dynamic and I am very wary of a narrative being established that says the UK is being dragged down some mad Brexit path by Little Englanders and Scotland’s only salvation is independence. The reality is that there were plenty of people in Scotland happy to leave the EU.

Im not saying you are trying to establish a fake narrative but it is certainly out there.

I always thought Salmond should have promoted EFTA membership rather than EU membership during the first referendum, to be honest it is still my preferred option.

[lucky]

A hard brexit followed by a election which could give Johnston a majority could be a game changer for many. I’ve been anti independence for all of my adult life but I’d even consider voting Yes if the future of the UK was in the hands of the hard right of the Tory party. Like many have said the economy was and is the big issue. If there are clear answers on our future economic outlook then Yes chance of victory increase significantly. Can you imagine trying to negotiate a trade deal with rUK after independence? This mob don’t care about working people only profit for big business.

[Smartie]

A hard brexit followed by a election which could give Johnston a majority could be a game changer for many. I’ve been anti independence for all of my adult life but I’d even consider voting Yes if the future of the UK was in the hands of the hard right of the Tory party. Like many have said the economy was and is the big issue. If there are clear answers on our future economic outlook then Yes chance of victory increase significantly. Can you imagine trying to negotiate a trade deal with rUK after independence? This mob don’t care about working people only profit for big business.

Even those of us who believe in independence (well, some of us) acknowledge the difficulty there. James310's favourite currency issue, how we straddle a difficult transition period, the nature of our relationship with rUK (our biggest trading partner whether we like it or not) are all uncertain and I'm not convinced there can ever be concrete answers. Independence will always be, to some extent, a step into the unknown and a colossal risk.

Which is why it is unappealing when it was compared to the cosy familiarity of the status quo in 2014. The problem that exists is that cosy status quo no longer exists. The status quo is now a colossal risk in itself, and for exactly the reasons you outline it is becoming increasingly unappealing.

I could see it being a difficult choice to find the lesser of 2 evils for those who are not yet in favour of independence - only if you're prepared to tough out a few very difficult and uncertain years then one eventually leads to a better place........

[JeMeSouviens]

A hard brexit followed by a election which could give Johnston a majority could be a game changer for many. I’ve been anti independence for all of my adult life but I’d even consider voting Yes if the future of the UK was in the hands of the hard right of the Tory party. Like many have said the economy was and is the big issue. If there are clear answers on our future economic outlook then Yes chance of victory increase significantly. Can you imagine trying to negotiate a trade deal with rUK after independence? This mob don’t care about working people only profit for big business.

Literally, no.

There *can't* be an iScotland-rUK trade deal outside of that that will apply to EU-rUK.

[steakbake]

I always thought Salmond should have promoted EFTA membership rather than EU membership during the first referendum, to be honest it is still my preferred option.

I agree. I think it would be a mistake to go into any future post-Brexit indyref on the basis of it meaning automatically seeking entry to the EU.

While I think the UK should be in the EU, I think i-Scotland should be in the EEA/EFTA. That, to me, is perfectly suitable a relationship to have. Key factors like freedom of movement remain as do elements of the single market and to an extent, customs union.

[Ozyhibby]

I agree. I think it would be a mistake to go into any future post-Brexit indyref on the basis of it meaning automatically seeking entry to the EU.

While I think the UK should be in the EU, I think i-Scotland should be in the EEA/EFTA. That, to me, is perfectly suitable a relationship to have. Key factors like freedom of movement remain as do elements of the single market and to an extent, customs union.

If we are going to be in SM and CU then better to have a seat at the table making decisions etc?


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[JeMeSouviens]

I agree. I think it would be a mistake to go into any future post-Brexit indyref on the basis of it meaning automatically seeking entry to the EU.

While I think the UK should be in the EU, I think i-Scotland should be in the EEA/EFTA. That, to me, is perfectly suitable a relationship to have. Key factors like freedom of movement remain as do elements of the single market and to an extent, customs union.

The CU is a separate beast is it not? It's kind of the point of EFTA that they stay outside of it so they can negotiate trade deals that are to some extent at least independent of the EU's.

I think Scotland should be a full EU member but as the path to that almost certainly involves a transitional route through the EEA, I am not opposed to it requiring a confirmatory ref. In this case, I really do think that would be a a rubber stamp exercise (mind you, so did the Norwegians in 1993!)

[steakbake]

The CU is a separate beast is it not? It's kind of the point of EFTA that they stay outside of it so they can negotiate trade deals that are to some extent at least independent of the EU's.

I think Scotland should be a full EU member but as the path to that almost certainly involves a transitional route through the EEA, I am not opposed to it requiring a confirmatory ref. In this case, I really do think that would be a a rubber stamp exercise (mind you, so did the Norwegians in 1993!)

Yes, however, there's alignment between EFTA countries and aspects of the customs union.

[JeMeSouviens]

Yes, however, there's alignment between EFTA countries and aspects of the customs union.

Got you. Why would you prefer EFTA if you don't mind me asking? Trade policy, fisheries, stay out of political integration, something else?

[lucky]

Scotland would need a further referendum on joining the EU. The present terms that the UK have will not be available to Scotland, it will also mean us using the Euro. That in itself is not insurmountable but certainly would cause issues with our biggest trade partners in the rUK

[CloudSquall]

Scotland would need a further referendum on joining the EU. The present terms that the UK have will not be available to Scotland, it will also mean us using the Euro. That in itself is not insurmountable but certainly would cause issues with our biggest trade partners in the rUK

For the love of humanity, this has been disproved so many times it is beyond me why anyone, apart from trying to troll,would waste seconds of their life writing this nonsense.

[lucky]

For the love of humanity, this has been disproved so many times it is beyond me why anyone, apart from trying to troll,would waste seconds of their life writing this nonsense.

So what terms do you think the EU will set Scotland? We might be begging to use the euro if the new Scottish currency is a flop or we are still using the £

[Callum_62]

So what terms do you think the EU will set Scotland? We might be begging to use the euro if the new Scottish currency is a flop or we are still using the £Same terms they set out for Sweden, Denmark or Croatia?

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[JeMeSouviens]

So what terms do you think the EU will set Scotland? We might be begging to use the euro if the new Scottish currency is a flop or we are still using the £

We will be asked to sign up to future Eurozone membership in principle, but with no set timescale (Sweden has been committed in principle since 1995 but still not in the Euro).

I think they will allow us to opt out of Schengen if we want (Ireland and the UK both currently outside and in a separate Common Travel Area).

Other than that, bog standard terms I think?

[cabbageandribs1875]

22483



we're coming hen, we're coming

[Mr Grieves]

Another poll...

https://twitter.com/KieranPAndrews/status/1169123744058683394?s=19

[Moulin Yarns]

YouGov for the Times has the Tories losing 10/13 MPs but just as brutally Labour losing 11/23 MSPs & dropping to fourth.

Greens up 4 to 10 MSPs & the pro-independence majority secure 💚🎉 https://t.co/vzxHsElLz3

[Callum_62]

YouGov for the Times has the Tories losing 10/13 MPs but just as brutally Labour losing 11/23 MSPs & dropping to fourth.

Greens up 4 to 10 MSPs & the pro-independence majority secure [emoji172][emoji322] https://t.co/vzxHsElLz3Yeah but remember it has to be a SNP majority alone to validate that we want indyref 2.
[emoji849]

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[Moulin Yarns]

Yeah but remember it has to be a SNP majority alone to validate that we want indyref 2.
[emoji849]

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Only in the minds of those that oppose it. :wink:

Remember even some huns support independence, hell, even some tories. whodhuvthunkit!!!

[cabbageandribs1875]

Only in the minds of those that oppose it. :wink:

Remember even some huns support independence, hell, even some tories. whodhuvthunkit!!!



22484

[JeMeSouviens]

Slightly disappointingly, the headline indy number in that poll is Y49 N51.

But more encouragingly, the result for "want a referendum in the next 5 years" is Y51 N49. I think that's the first time since indyref1 that Yougov have recorded a majority wanting indyref2.

[lucky]

I think independence will be decided at Westminster. If a no deal brexit is forced through and it’s a disaster then Scotland will vote for independence. If a deal is done and it works out ok then independence might be more difficult to achieve.
Sturgeon is correct to play the waiting game, another referendum in October or November 2020 should give her enough time to judge how brexit has gone and how the new UK government are performing and how she’ll structure the independence argument. Late 2020 could see independence gained.

[Fife-Hibee]

Slightly disappointingly, the headline indy number in that poll is Y49 N51.

But more encouragingly, the result for "want a referendum in the next 5 years" is Y51 N49. I think that's the first time since indyref1 that Yougov have recorded a majority wanting indyref2.

Wouldn't trust any of the polls. It seems all too convenient for the union that we're forever a percentage point or two behind regardless of what level of nonsense ensues at Westminster.

[Bristolhibby]

Wouldn't trust any of the polls. It seems all too convenient for the union that we're forever a percentage point or two behind regardless of what level of nonsense ensues at Westminster.

I know, what do these 51% need to transpire in Westminster before believing “enough of this *****”?

J

[cabbageandribs1875]

22487



wonder if Scottish farmers will remember

[The Harp Awakes]

Wouldn't trust any of the polls. It seems all too convenient for the union that we're forever a percentage point or two behind regardless of what level of nonsense ensues at Westminster.

If Yes is ~ 50/50 in the polls now, then that's a great position to be in ahead of indyref2. 6 months before the 2014 referendum Yes was polling ~30% and ended up at 45% on the day.

There will be a surge in the Yes vote again in indyref2. The biggest obstacle will be getting a referendum.

[WeeRussell]

22487



wonder if Scottish farmers will remember

One I know very well (albeit a strong indy supporter) certainly does. I know plenty farming types that aren't so keen on independence and I imagine the above won't be such a big 'issue' for them :greengrin.. in fact I'm sure a few of them would be able to turn the argument into blaming the SNP quicker than you can say Hibs are 1 down.