Scottish Independence

[RyeSloan]

That's the problem marinello. These figures can't be used as a starting point for independence, because they're so easy to spin. The Scottish Government has no real figures it can use as a basis for an independence argument. Those figures reside with Westminster.

What can be said however and it's something that never gets addressed by anyone on any side ever. Is that if Scotlands economic outlook would be anything other than an improvement on what it is now, then why are the real figures such a secret? Why do we need methodology based figures?

Are you suggesting that figures to assess Tax and Spending in Scotland should not be based on a methodology?

And if GERS is so pointless why does the SCOTTISH government state the following about them:

“The aim of GERS is to enhance public understanding of fiscal issues in Scotland. The primary objective is to estimate a set of public sector accounts for Scotland through detailed analysis of official UK and Scottish Government finance statistics. GERS estimates the contribution of revenue raised in Scotland toward the goods and services provided for the benefit of the people of Scotland. The report is designed to allow users to understand and analyse Scotland's fiscal position under different scenarios”

[Fife-Hibee]

Are you suggesting that figures to assess Tax and Spending in Scotland should not be based on a methodology?

And if GERS is so pointless why does the SCOTTISH government state the following about them:

“The aim of GERS is to enhance public understanding of fiscal issues in Scotland. The primary objective is to estimate a set of public sector accounts for Scotland through detailed analysis of official UK and Scottish Government finance statistics. GERS estimates the contribution of revenue raised in Scotland toward the goods and services provided for the benefit of the people of Scotland. The report is designed to allow users to understand and analyse Scotland's fiscal position under different scenarios”

Well what they say is correct. GERS was designed for that purpose, as previously, we had absolutely nothing at all to base UK public spending in Scotland on. That doesn't however make it suitable when trying to build a solid economic case for independence. How can it, when it relies on calculated guess work to determine how half of Scotlands tax revenues are spent in Scotland by the UK Government?

The uncertainty of GERS feeds into the economic uncertainty argument over independence.

[Glory Lurker]

Can I evoke the R7 precedent and not answer? No, it's ok.

What do you mean where am I on them? They are what they are, they are the Government Expenditure and Revenue figures. They are figures produced by the Scottish Government, as far as I know they are factually correct, unless you think otherwise.

Not sure what you are asking me? It's a bunch of statistics.

Thanks. Do you think they give an indication of an independent Scotland's performance? I've seen folk that know a lot more than me (and not SNP/indy folk) say they don't so I don't get steamed up about them either way.

[James310]

Thanks. Do you think they give an indication of an independent Scotland's performance? I've seen folk that know a lot more than me (and not SNP/indy folk) say they don't so I don't get steamed up about them either way.

There is obviously some estimation going on, but the headline figures will I would imagine stay similar. Like you I have seen people say they are worthless and people say they are a very strong indication of what the finances of an Independent Scotland would be like.

I am not going to be posting a bunch of analysis on it, would not have commented on them at all but it was other people that brought them up. The point I was making was more around how when they figures showed a positive position the figures were a sound analysis, when they showed a negative position then all of a sudden they were actually not very representative at all. But that's what politicians do.

[Glory Lurker]

There is obviously some estimation going on, but the headline figures will I would imagine stay similar. Like you I have seen people say they are worthless and people say they are a very strong indication of what the finances of an Independent Scotland would be like.

I am not going to be posting a bunch of analysis on it, would not have commented on them at all but it was other people that brought them up. The point I was making was more around how when they figures showed a positive position the figures were a sound analysis, when they showed a negative position then all of a sudden they were actually not very representative at all. But that's what politicians do.

Cheers. Generally agree with that (though with reservation about first sentence - most countries run at a defecit but not sure we can rely on Gers outcome as accurate).

[ronaldo7]

Happy Gers day. I'll just leave this here. A real tax analyst instead of a dog food salesman.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4C8trs8mGhk

and to finally answer wee jimmy's question. They get this, and more.

[James310]

Happy Gers day. I'll just leave this here. A real tax analyst instead of a dog food salesman.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4C8trs8mGhk

and to finally answer wee jimmy's question. They get this, and more.

A real tax analyst?

Here is his Sterling (get it) performance in front of a Hollyrood committee. He is a shambles.

https://youtu.be/Ni5dTPBgLKE



It's a 3 minute watch.

He is advocating producing figures using an accounting methodology that no other country in the world uses. He says the GERs figures are useless, literally made up, a nonsense and rigged by Westminster.

Does that sound like an expert to you?

Let me ask you, do you think the same as he does, that they are made up nonsense, rigged by Westminster? (Hopefully I don't have to follow up again to ask you to answer this question)

You are really not on form at the moment are you.

[Moulin Yarns]

We can whinge and whine about the spin put on the figures and claim it shuts down debate.
Or we can use them as the starting point for an argument for Independence. How about we stop wasting energy on the former? It achieves nothing.

It's like I've entered the twilight zone and it is populated with energy vampires.

[marinello59]

It's like I've entered the twilight zone and it is populated with energy vampires.

I’m an energy vampire? It does explain a lot. :greengrin

[Moulin Yarns]

I’m an energy vampire? It does explain a lot. :greengrin

That is not what I said. 😉 I'm agreeing with you.

[Fife-Hibee]

Happy Gers day. I'll just leave this here. A real tax analyst instead of a dog food salesman.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4C8trs8mGhk

and to finally answer wee jimmy's question. They get this, and more.

Good video and explains exactly why GERS is no good for building the case for independence. Until we gain access to the London held figures, the debate is doomed to go round and round in circles.

[marinello59]

That is not what I said. 😉 I'm agreeing with you.

I know. :greengrin

[ronaldo7]

A real tax analyst?

Here is his Sterling (get it) performance in front of a Hollyrood committee. He is a shambles.

https://youtu.be/Ni5dTPBgLKE



It's a 3 minute watch.

He is advocating producing figures using an accounting methodology that no other country in the world uses. He says the GERs figures are useless, literally made up, a nonsense and rigged by Westminster.

Does that sound like an expert to you?

Let me ask you, do you think the same as he does, that they are made up nonsense, rigged by Westminster? (Hopefully I don't have to follow up again to ask you to answer this question)

You are really not on form at the moment are you.

At work just now. Someone has to do it 😉. Those tax revenues can't get made sitting on your arse.

You'll have an answer when I'm done.

Just out of interest, do you live in Scotland?

[James310]

At work just now. Someone has to do it 😉. Those tax revenues can't get made sitting on your arse.

You'll have an answer when I'm done.

Just out of interest, do you live in Scotland?

Just out of interest why do you want to know where I live?

Is that on topic?

[JeMeSouviens]

Good video and explains exactly why GERS is no good for building the case for independence. Until we gain access to the London held figures, the debate is doomed to go round and round in circles.

We DO have access to the London held figures, that's what GERS is. Some of it is based on estimates because separate Scotland/rUK accounting isn't done, not because they're locked in a secret bunker beneath a pool of voracious sharks.

GERS is a useful ballpark to estimate the challenge faced on day 1 of Indy.

[JeMeSouviens]

On a more positive note, I came across this 2017 article by top Oxford economist Simon Wren-Lewis. He was a voice for No in 2014 but Brexit changed his mind:


If Scotland can remain in the single market it could be the destination of the foreign investment that once came to the UK as a gateway into the EU. By accepting free movement, it could benefit from the immigration that has improved the UK public finances over the last decade. No, that is not what you read in the papers or see on the TV, but I’m talking about the real world here, not the political fantasy that seems so dominant today.


But in 2014 a brighter long term future outside the rUK was patriotic wishful thinking. Now, if they can stay in the single market, it is almost a certainty.

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/03/brexit-makes-scottish-independence-much-more-economically-attractive

[ronaldo7]

Just out of interest why do you want to know where I live?

Is that on topic?

I just thought that if you lived in, Edinburgh, for instance. You'd know the Scottish Parliament was housed at Holyrood. Must have been predictive text. 😂

[Moulin Yarns]

GERS explained from 2 sources


https://fraserofallander.org/scottish-economy/gers/back-to-school-for-gers-2019/


And

http://www2.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Economy/GERS/FAQs


Still, there might be some saving


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49420332

[Future17]

An example of someone affected by Brexit being swayed to a "Yes" vote if there's another Independence Referendum. His specific circumstances probably don't apply to many people though. :greengrin

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-49413445

[James310]

I just thought that if you lived in, Edinburgh, for instance. You'd know the Scottish Parliament was housed at Holyrood. Must have been predictive text. 😂

If all you have is picking me up on a spelling mistake you must be struggling.

[JeMeSouviens]

An example of someone affected by Brexit being swayed to a "Yes" vote if there's another Independence Referendum. His specific circumstances probably don't apply to many people though. :greengrin

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-49413445

Indeed not. And if he doesn't move here he won't have a vote anyway.

[JeMeSouviens]

vg summary from the FoA institute as linked by MY above:



GERS is an annual publication that sparks off a debate about Scotland’s public finances. As we say regularly in our blogs: it is a statistical publication produced by the Scottish Government; it contains some elements which are estimated but that does not mean it should be discredited; and altering any assumption made does not really change the overall picture.

It is always important to remember that GERS takes the current structure of UK Government reserved taxation and spending as given. If the very purpose of independence is to take different choices about the type of economy and society that we live in, then a set of accounts based upon the current constitutional settlement and policy priorities will tell us little about the long-term finances of an independent Scotland.

But GERS does provide a pretty accurate picture of where Scotland is in 2019. So in doing so, today’s numbers set the starting point for a discussion about the immediate choices and challenges that need to be addressed by those advocating new fiscal arrangements.

btw. the GERS headline numbers not as bad as last year. "Notional deficit" 7% of GDP vs 8.1% last year.

[lord bunberry]

Are the gers figures really saying that Scotland is responsible for 53% of the UK deficit? Are they also saying that Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are responsible for £34 billion of debt, but the UK as a whole ran a deficit of £23 billion?

[degenerated]

Are the gers figures really saying that Scotland is responsible for 53% of the UK deficit? Are they also saying that Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are responsible for £34 billion of debt, but the UK as a whole ran a deficit of £23 billion?

more impressive is the use of estimate/estimated 176 times in a document that it is under 70 pages long!

[lord bunberry]

more impressive is the use of estimate/estimated 176 times in a document that it is under 70 pages long!
The whole exercise seems to lack credibility.

[degenerated]

The whole exercise seems to lack credibility.

It's almost as if it's deliberate....

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/12432586.gers-was-conceived-as-a-political-exercise/

[Moulin Yarns]

Are the gers figures really saying that Scotland is responsible for 53% of the UK deficit? Are they also saying that Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are responsible for £34 billion of debt, but the UK as a whole ran a deficit of £23 billion?

I've been listening to some explanations. It appears that London and the South East of England run a surplus and 'subsidise' the rest of the UK. Surprised they haven't campaigned for independence. :wink:

[lord bunberry]

It's almost as if it's deliberate....

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/12432586.gers-was-conceived-as-a-political-exercise/
That’s always been the accusation. I don’t really understand how they get to the final conclusion, but there’s no way Scotland can be responsible for 53% of the UK deficit.

[lord bunberry]

I've been listening to some explanations. It appears that London and the South East of England run a surplus and 'subsidise' the rest of the UK. Surprised they haven't campaigned for independence. :wink:
Exactly. Why are they so keen to stop us leaving if we’re such a drain on the country.

[cabbageandribs1875]

22428



Mmmm

[Moulin Yarns]

22428



Mmmm


As explained above



I've been listening to some explanations. It appears that London and the South East of England run a surplus and 'subsidise' the rest of the UK. Surprised they haven't campaigned for independence. :wink:

[Ozyhibby]

From those GERS figures it looks like we raise £67bn in taxes and spend £32bn through Holyrood.
I’m pretty sure there are savings to be made in the £35bn of Westminster govt spending that is attributed to Scotland. Cutting trident, HS2 etc as well as allowing us to grow the population would be measures that would allow an independent Scotland to significantly reduce the deficit without reducing the quality of life in Scotland.
I think the Scottish govt will be pleased with those figures.



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[Fife-Hibee]

So lets see what we have here...... if you take the combined UK deficit that Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are supposedly responsible for, then it makes up over 100% of the UK total deficit.

Aye, nae bother. :aok:

[James310]

Are the gers figures really saying that Scotland is responsible for 53% of the UK deficit? Are they also saying that Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are responsible for £34 billion of debt, but the UK as a whole ran a deficit of £23 billion?

London and SE run a massive surplus. It's great how we can run a deficit but as other parts of the UK run a surplus we can make choices like free University tution, free prescriptions etc.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/may/23/uk-budget-deficit-grows-to-more-than-10bn-as-people-spend-less


"London’s thriving economy generates a £26.5bn surplus that is recycled by the government to provide financial help to Britain’s less well-off regions, according to an official breakdown of the public finances"

That was a few years ago now, I believe the surplus is now close to £50BN.

[Ozyhibby]

London and SE run a massive surplus. It's great how we can run a deficit but as other parts of the UK run a surplus we can make choices like free University tution, free prescriptions etc.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/may/23/uk-budget-deficit-grows-to-more-than-10bn-as-people-spend-less


"London’s thriving economy generates a £26.5bn surplus that is recycled by the government to provide financial help to Britain’s less well-off regions, according to an official breakdown of the public finances"

That was a few years ago now, I believe the surplus is now close to £50BN.

A better choice would be to run our own surplus and build our own economy. Right now, the UK govt has zero plan for growing the Scottish economy and the the Scottish govt has little power to grow the Scottish economy.
Can you tell me what the UK govt plan is to improve those figures? You can’t because there isn’t one. And there never will be.


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[Fife-Hibee]

London and SE run a massive surplus. It's great how we can run a deficit but as other parts of the UK run a surplus we can make choices like free University tution, free prescriptions etc.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/may/23/uk-budget-deficit-grows-to-more-than-10bn-as-people-spend-less


"London’s thriving economy generates a £26.5bn surplus that is recycled by the government to provide financial help to Britain’s less well-off regions, according to an official breakdown of the public finances"

That was a few years ago now, I believe the surplus is now close to £50BN.

Scotland doesn't run a deficit. The UK runs a deficit and proportions a 50%+ share of that deficit to Scotland, without telling us how they spend it on Scotland.

Aye, great...

[Callum_62]

London and SE run a massive surplus. It's great how we can run a deficit but as other parts of the UK run a surplus we can make choices like free University tution, free prescriptions etc.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/may/23/uk-budget-deficit-grows-to-more-than-10bn-as-people-spend-less


"London’s thriving economy generates a £26.5bn surplus that is recycled by the government to provide financial help to Britain’s less well-off regions, according to an official breakdown of the public finances"

That was a few years ago now, I believe the surplus is now close to £50BN.If that is remotely true - what benefit is the UK to England?

If 3/4 countries in a union are responsible for over a 100% of the deficit created, why on earth would the 4th country want to remain part of it?

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[Fife-Hibee]

Ruth Davidson claims that Scotland has the highest deficit share in the whole of Europe.

But hud oan a minute.....

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-48431630

Both Northern Ireland and Wales have the highest public spending out of every region across the UK.

So if Scotland has the highest 'UK' deficit share in the whole of Europe, but public spending is higher in both Northern Ireland and Wales. Then where is that £12.6bn being spent in Scotland by the UK Government, if at all?

[danhibees1875]

If that is remotely true - what benefit is the UK to England?

If 3/4 countries in a union are responsible for over a 100% of the deficit created, why on earth would the 4th country want to remain part of it?

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I think there's a much greater sense of "Britishness" and positive feeling towards the idea of the "UK" down there to the point of people not being bothered to ask the question.

The surplus seems to also come from London/SE, so making up the deficit for the UK or making up the deficit for the North of England maybe does register too highly with them either.

:dunno:

[Mr Grieves]

London and SE run a massive surplus. It's great how we can run a deficit but as other parts of the UK run a surplus we can make choices like free University tution, free prescriptions etc.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/may/23/uk-budget-deficit-grows-to-more-than-10bn-as-people-spend-less


"London’s thriving economy generates a £26.5bn surplus that is recycled by the government to provide financial help to Britain’s less well-off regions, according to an official breakdown of the public finances"

That was a few years ago now, I believe the surplus is now close to £50BN.

Are you happy with the balance of economic activity in the UK? It's not exactly an accident that London and the SE perform so well compared to everywhere else.

[lord bunberry]

London and SE run a massive surplus. It's great how we can run a deficit but as other parts of the UK run a surplus we can make choices like free University tution, free prescriptions etc.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/may/23/uk-budget-deficit-grows-to-more-than-10bn-as-people-spend-less


"London’s thriving economy generates a £26.5bn surplus that is recycled by the government to provide financial help to Britain’s less well-off regions, according to an official breakdown of the public finances"

That was a few years ago now, I believe the surplus is now close to £50BN.
Why do we live in a country that’s allowing one tiny area to have all the wealth and the rest of us have to look on from afar with no hope of ever being as wealthy. It’s a seriously flawed system. The figures are a nonsense that has no bearing on us being able to give free prescriptions or free university education.

[Fife-Hibee]

Richard Murphy's take on todays findings -
https://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2019/08/21/the-gers-data-is-ludicrous-scotland-does-not-generate-60-of-the-uks-net-fiscal-deficit/

[Mr Grieves]

So lets see what we have here...... if you take the combined UK deficit that Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are supposedly responsible for, then it makes up over 100% of the UK total deficit.

Aye, nae bother. :aok:

Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and just about every region in England have a deficit. South East England and London have a surplus. You've not taken account of the surplus in your sum.

[James310]

If that is remotely true - what benefit is the UK to England?

If 3/4 countries in a union are responsible for over a 100% of the deficit created, why on earth would the 4th country want to remain part of it?

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What do you mean if this is remotely true? Are saying the Office for National Statistics just makes up numbers?

In an independent Scotland would you get rid of all the areas of the country that run a deficit, so say Dundee was running a deficit would you just think why on Earth are we keeping Dundee as part of Scotland? That's a ridiculous argument.

[Callum_62]

What do you mean if this is remotely true? Are saying the Office for National Statistics just makes up numbers?

In an independent Scotland would you get rid of all the areas of the country that run a deficit, so say Dundee was running a deficit would you just think why on Earth are we keeping Dundee as part of Scotland? That's a ridiculous argument.

No, the ridiculous argument is comparing cities contained within a country to countries contained within a political union

As for making up numbers - woudnt go as far as that, but certainly the methology of getting to the number they present certainly appears to need some clarification and transparency

https://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2019/08/21/the-gers-data-is-ludicrous-scotland-does-not-generate-60-of-the-uks-net-fiscal-deficit/

[James310]

Are you happy with the balance of economic activity in the UK? It's not exactly an accident that London and the SE perform so well compared to everywhere else.

It's where the most people live and of course London generates huge revenues as the financial capital of the world. It would be nice if it was spread more evenly, just like I am sure people across Scotland wish the main economic activity in Scotland was not just across the Edinburgh to Glasgow central belt.

[Ozyhibby]

Richard Murphy's take on todays findings -
https://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2019/08/21/the-gers-data-is-ludicrous-scotland-does-not-generate-60-of-the-uks-net-fiscal-deficit/

Good article.


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[James310]

Why do we live in a country that’s allowing one tiny area to have all the wealth and the rest of us have to look on from afar with no hope of ever being as wealthy. It’s a seriously flawed system. The figures are a nonsense that has no bearing on us being able to give free prescriptions or free university education.

Since when was London and the SE a tiny area? We benefit from their wealth, did you not see what the GERs report said? It's shared across the UK, that's the beauty of it.

[Ozyhibby]

It's where the most people live and of course London generates huge revenues as the financial capital of the world. It would be nice if it was spread more evenly, just like I am sure people across Scotland wish the main economic activity in Scotland was not just across the Edinburgh to Glasgow central belt.

Is London generating this economic activity or is it just having it apportion to it by the UK govt?
https://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2019/08/16/the-burden-of-financialisation-a-case-study-of-a-scottish-police-training-centre/



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[southfieldhibby]

Anyone who believes that if Scotland was responsible for nearly 60% of the deficit that arch *******o Torys would want to keep The Union for some sort of romantic notions is quite frankly, a lunatic.

[Moulin Yarns]

Richard Murphy's take on todays findings -
https://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2019/08/21/the-gers-data-is-ludicrous-scotland-does-not-generate-60-of-the-uks-net-fiscal-deficit/

What I find interesting from that is the graph which shows the % deficit of Scotland as part of the UK which has gone from being below 18% consistently between 2002 and 2012 to suddenly sky rocketing to 54% in the space of 7 years. What exactly happened around 2012?

That's when the campaigning for the independence referendum started, and call me a conspiracy theorist but there is no way that spending in Scotland also rose at the same rate in those years, so I think the figures have been manipulated to make it more difficult for Scotland to have anything like a manageable notional deficit.

[Callum_62]

What I find interesting from that is the graph which shows the % deficit of Scotland as part of the UK which has gone from being below 18% consistently between 2002 and 2012 to suddenly sky rocketing to 54% in the space of 7 years. What exactly happened around 2012?

That's when the campaigning for the independence referendum started, and call me a conspiracy theorist but there is no way that spending in Scotland also rose at the same rate in those years, so I think the figures have been manipulated to make it more difficult for Scotland to have anything like a manageable notional deficit.

its certainly an explosion that should be clearly explained by the people putting out these figures

[stoneyburn hibs]

What I find interesting from that is the graph which shows the % deficit of Scotland as part of the UK which has gone from being below 18% consistently between 2002 and 2012 to suddenly sky rocketing to 54% in the space of 7 years. What exactly happened around 2012?

That's when the campaigning for the independence referendum started, and call me a conspiracy theorist but there is no way that spending in Scotland also rose at the same rate in those years, so I think the figures have been manipulated to make it more difficult for Scotland to have anything like a manageable notional deficit.

That's an astonishing jump. Is there anywhere to find out as to why?

[James310]

No, the ridiculous argument is comparing cities contained within a country to countries contained within a political union

As for making up numbers - woudnt go as far as that, but certainly the methology of getting to the number they present certainly appears to need some clarification and transparency

https://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2019/08/21/the-gers-data-is-ludicrous-scotland-does-not-generate-60-of-the-uks-net-fiscal-deficit/

What about getting rid of Shetland? It's the same principles you are suggesting and I am showing you it's not a sensible argument.

That link is from someone who has claimed GERs are rigged by Westminster and they are 'literally made up', I would not pay too much attention to what he has to say.

[Callum_62]

What about getting rid of Shetland? It's the same principles you are suggesting and I am showing you it's not a sensible argument.

That link is from someone who has claimed GERs are rigged by Westminster and they are 'literally made up', I would not pay too much attention to what he has to say.

ofcourse you wouldnt - definitely needs some explaining though just looking at the graph since 2012

[Moulin Yarns]

It's where the most people live and of course London generates huge revenues as the financial capital of the world. It would be nice if it was spread more evenly, just like I am sure people across Scotland wish the main economic activity in Scotland was not just across the Edinburgh to Glasgow central belt.

Oh dear


n terms of stock exchanges, calling London the world's financial capital looks ludicrous. The London Stock Exchange isn't even the second-largest stock exchange in the world after the New York Stock Exchange. It's the fourth (after the Nasdaq and Tokyo).

[James310]

Is London generating this economic activity or is it just having it apportion to it by the UK govt?
https://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2019/08/16/the-burden-of-financialisation-a-case-study-of-a-scottish-police-training-centre/



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You are linking to a man who says the figures are rigged by Westminster, how can you take him seriously after that.

Unless you believe him of course, then it's tin foil hat conspiracy time.

[danhibees1875]

What I find interesting from that is the graph which shows the % deficit of Scotland as part of the UK which has gone from being below 18% consistently between 2002 and 2012 to suddenly sky rocketing to 54% in the space of 7 years. What exactly happened around 2012?

That's when the campaigning for the independence referendum started, and call me a conspiracy theorist but there is no way that spending in Scotland also rose at the same rate in those years, so I think the figures have been manipulated to make it more difficult for Scotland to have anything like a manageable notional deficit.

You could be right, but I think that also follows the revenues from oil falling dramatically which will have a sizeable impact from 2012 figures.

[Callum_62]

You are linking to a man who says the figures are rigged by Westminster, how can you take him seriously after that.

Unless you believe him of course, then it's tin foil hat conspiracy time.

Maybe once someone explains this graph, then we can start taking these GERS figures seriously
22429

[James310]

Oh dear

You do understand it's not just the size of the Stock Market that makes up the definition of the financial size of a city like London? What about the Bond and Gilt Market, the insurance market, the metals and commodities market etc. Obviously you googled the wrong thing, embarrassing for you again.

Or does it all happen behind the scenes?

Actually I was wrong, New York has taken over. My bad.

https://news.sky.com/story/london-loses-top-spot-in-global-financial-centre-rankings-11495765


Still waiting for that explanation, when you are ready.

[Fife-Hibee]

You are linking to a man who says the figures are rigged by Westminster, how can you take him seriously after that.

Unless you believe him of course, then it's tin foil hat conspiracy time.

You'd be only all too happy to link to an experienced London economist if they were singing the praises of GERS. This man points out the flaws. Flaws that are very convenient for unionists like yourself to ignore.

[James310]

Maybe once someone explains this graph, then we can start taking these GERS figures seriously
22429

"Scotland’s financial position has been impacted by the oil price drop, with its share of revenues being at a nearly £8billion in 2012-13, and dropping to just £50million in 2015-16."

Not looked at what it was today or last year but I suspect there is your explanation.

[CloudSquall]

https://wingsoverscotland.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/gersgraph-768x747.jpg

[James310]

You'd be only all too happy to link to an experienced London economist if they were singing the praises of GERS. This man points out the flaws. Flaws that are very convenient for unionists like yourself to ignore.

Flaws, he says they are made up nonsense rigged by Westminster.

[Ozyhibby]

That's an astonishing jump. Is there anywhere to find out as to why?

Think I found it.[emoji6]
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190821/1e8202a429d842a662a3a7e9541138d8.jpg


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Moulin Yarns]

You do understand it's not just the size of the Stock Market that makes up the definition of the financial size of a city like London? What about the Bond and Gilt Market, the insurance market, the metals and commodities market etc. Obviously you googled the wrong thing, embarrassing for you again.

Or does it all happen behind the scenes?

Actually I was wrong, New York has taken over. My bad.

https://news.sky.com/story/london-loses-top-spot-in-global-financial-centre-rankings-11495765


Still waiting for that explanation, when you are ready.

Trolling by you again. explanation about what?

[Fife-Hibee]

What I find interesting from that is the graph which shows the % deficit of Scotland as part of the UK which has gone from being below 18% consistently between 2002 and 2012 to suddenly sky rocketing to 54% in the space of 7 years. What exactly happened around 2012?

That's when the campaigning for the independence referendum started, and call me a conspiracy theorist but there is no way that spending in Scotland also rose at the same rate in those years, so I think the figures have been manipulated to make it more difficult for Scotland to have anything like a manageable notional deficit.

The collapse of oil prices combined with increasing austerity in other parts of the UK would create a widening gap. My issue isn't so much the claim the UK Government makes on how much it borrows and spends in Scotland. It's the not knowing what they actually spend it on specifically and their refusal to release the figures.

[James310]

Trolling by you again. explanation about what?

That joke you made, that you have so far refused to explain.

I notice I have been twice accused of trolling for asking people to answer a question, something that I get hounded on. Is this a new thing now?

[Fife-Hibee]

Flaws, he says they are made up nonsense rigged by Westminster.

Really? Can you dig out that quote for me. I must have missed it.

[Moulin Yarns]

That joke you made, that you have so far refused to explain.

I notice I have been twice accused of trolling for asking people to answer a question, something that I get hounded on. Is this a new thing now?

I don't make jokes on such important subjects, you must be thinking of someone else. When was this?

As for trolling, you seem to think if anybody else gets something wrong, you call it out as embarrassing, however you get things wrong you ignore it. In this case you were wrong, how embarrassing :greengrin

[stoneyburn hibs]

Think I found it.[emoji6]
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190821/1e8202a429d842a662a3a7e9541138d8.jpg


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Haha, thanks.

[James310]

I don't make jokes on such important subjects, you must be thinking of someone else. When was this?

Colin Robinson or something, your memory must be failing. You refused to explain it many times over.

[James310]

Really? Can you dig out that quote for me. I must have missed it.

It was on the video I posted earlier. When he was in front of a Holyrood committee. Have a watch.

[Moulin Yarns]

Colin Robinson or something, your memory must be failing. You refused to explain it many times over.

Wow! From three weeks ago, and you are still going on about it, how boring a life you must have.

For reference here is the post.


I see Colin Robinson is back.

The post was stand alone, did not quote any other post, and therefore could be taken in any way anybody wanted. How did you take it?

[southfieldhibby]

The collapse of oil prices combined with increasing austerity in other parts of the UK would create a widening gap. My issue isn't so much the claim the UK Government makes on how much it borrows and spends in Scotland. It's the not knowing what they actually spend it on specifically and their refusal to release the figures.

Price of oil has been pretty steady since 2016. Think current charts show revenue of circa £1Billion for North Sea Oil for UK. Same period, Norway show revenue of £30 Billion- from smaller fields. We're effectively paying companies to take our oil.

[James310]

I don't make jokes on such important subjects, you must be thinking of someone else. When was this?

As for trolling, you seem to think if anybody else gets something wrong, you call it out as embarrassing, however you get things wrong you ignore it. In this case you were wrong, how embarrassing :greengrin

Maybe if you never framed your replies with patronising comments like 'oh dear' I would not feel the need to reply with an equally sarky response.

[James310]

Wow! From three weeks ago, and you are still going on about it, how boring a life you must have.

For reference here is the post.



The post was stand alone, did not quote any other post, and therefore could be taken in any way anybody wanted. How did you take it?

So what did it mean?

[Mr Grieves]

It's where the most people live and of course London generates huge revenues as the financial capital of the world. It would be nice if it was spread more evenly, just like I am sure people across Scotland wish the main economic activity in Scotland was not just across the Edinburgh to Glasgow central belt.

It would be nice? Think you'll need to do better than that.

[Fife-Hibee]

Price of oil has been pretty steady since 2016. Think current charts show revenue of circa £1Billion for North Sea Oil for UK. Same period, Norway show revenue of £30 Billion- from smaller fields. We're effectively paying companies to take our oil.

That's true. But that's because Norway started taxing the suppliers. You'll notice that prices for the consumer are pretty much where they were pre-collapse, despite the cost per barrel to the supplier being less than half what it was then. Which means suppliers in the UK are making a killer profit at the expense of the consumer and the UK Government.

The UK Government could tax the suppliers more to make up for this, but that would be too much of a bonus for the Scottish economy and independentistas like myself. :wink:

[James310]

It would be nice? Think you'll need to do better than that.

What do you mean?

[Fife-Hibee]

Yep.

https://i.ibb.co/Vj5rDwD/sotrue.png

[Moulin Yarns]

So what did it mean?

If I remember your reply you thought that I was thinking of you? That is right isn't it, even though my comment was stand alone, which is telling me that you understand what I meant and took it to mean you. If not then why did you take it personally?

[James310]

If I remember your reply you thought that I was thinking of you? That is right isn't it, even though my comment was stand alone, which is telling me that you understand what I meant and took it to mean you. If not then why did you take it personally?

Yes I did take it to mean me, did it?

If so, what did it mean? If not then what did it mean as it made no sense.

Either explain it or refuse to do so, it's tedious now.

[Mr Grieves]

What do you mean?

It would be nice doesn't really cut it. Why is there such a disparity between the financial activity in London/south east England and the every other area of the UK? Other developed countries don't have the same level of inequality as us, why?

[Kato]

You are linking to a man who says the figures are rigged by Westminster, how can you take him seriously after that.

Unless you believe him of course, then it's tin foil hat conspiracy time.

Do you really think that - people are mentally ill if they question figures given by this Govt?

Westminster "massages" figures all the time. There are so many mentions of "estimates" included in the GERS figures they could easily be completely wrong or massaged.


Along the lines of counting someone on a zero hours contract who has done a couple of hours a week as being in employment. Not an outright but enough to be called one given the way they present the figures as though the country is prosperous.

The Govt have just lied about the recent allocation of money for the NHS being "new" when it's been shown that is anything but. A lie.

I don't see that as "tin foil hat" stuff, just that some regimes lie. Boris made a living from making up lies for The Telegraph. What is there to make anyone believe anything they publish?

[James310]

It would be nice doesn't really cut it. Why is there such a disparity between the financial activity in London/south east England and the every other area of the UK? Other developed countries don't have the same level of inequality as us, why?

So in France there is not a concentration of wealth in and around Paris? In the US do you think New York and LA generate the same wealth as Dakota and Wyoming? Where there are large financial centres or commercial hubs coupled with huge populations they will generate more wealth, it's not like this is something new that has only appeared today.

In Scotland the likes of Edinburgh and Glasgow if compared to the rest of Scotland in a similar manner would have far greater wealth and financial activity than say Inverness or Dundee.

[James310]

Do you really think that - people are mentally ill if they question figures given by this Govt?

Westminster "massages" figures all the time. There are so many mentions of "estimates" included in the GERS figures they could easily be completely wrong or massaged.


Along the lines of counting someone on a zero hours contract who has done a couple of hours a week as being in employment. Not an outright but enough to be called one given the way they present the figures as though the country is prosperous.

The Govt have just lied about the recent allocation of money for the NHS being "new" when it's been shown that is anything but. A lie.

I don't see that as "tin foil hat" stuff, just that some regimes lie. Boris made a living from making up lies for The Telegraph. What is there to make anyone believe anything they publish?

Ok, Tin Foil hat was maybe too far.

These are figures produced by the Scottish Government, why would they massage them?

"GERS is compiled by statisticians and economists in the Office of the Chief Economic Adviser of the Scottish Government. The Scottish Government's Chief Statistician takes responsibility for this publication."

That's from the Scottish Government website.

As for Richard Murphy, his starting position is one of the figures are made up nonsense that are rigged by Westminster. His analysis cannot therefore be taken seriously if he himself does not take the figures seriously.

[Kato]

Ok, Tin Foil hat was maybe too far.

These are figures produced by the Scottish Government, why would they massage them?

"GERS is compiled by statisticians and economists in the Office of the Chief Economic Adviser of the Scottish Government. The Scottish Government's Chief Statistician takes responsibility for this publication."

That's from the Scottish Government website.

He can only work with the data provided. Is it ok to question that without resorting to wearing shiny headgear?


As for Richard Murphy, his starting position is one of the figures are made up nonsense that are rigged by Westminster. His analysis cannot therefore be taken seriously if he himself does not take the figures seriously.

Yup, that is his point exactly.

[James310]

He can only work with the data provided. Is it ok to question that without resorting to wearing shiny headgear?



Yup, that is his point exactly.

Yet he is being widely quoted as an expert on GERs.

If I started linking to his equivalent on the other side then the responses would be exactly the same, just the other way round.

I said the Tin Foil hat comment was not appropriate, for that I apologise.

[Moulin Yarns]

Price of oil has been pretty steady since 2016. Think current charts show revenue of circa £1Billion for North Sea Oil for UK. Same period, Norway show revenue of £30 Billion- from smaller fields. We're effectively paying companies to take our oil.

Yep. Brent crude oil prices dropped in the middle of 2014 from about $110 to around $48 reaching a low of $28 at the beginning of 2016. It has risen steadily to the current point of circa $80. That is not reflected in % deficit graph.

[CloudSquall]

Lasted one minute reading the likes of Ruth Davidson's pages on Twitter, we're going nowhere as a country when politicians are orgasmic over the idea of a country being in such a poor state it requires handouts from it's generous neighbour.

Is there any other country in the world that has a section of the population that reacts like this?

[Glory Lurker]

Lasted one minute reading the likes of Ruth Davidson's pages on Twitter, we're going nowhere as a country when politicians are orgasmic over the idea of a country being in such a poor state it requires handouts from it's generous neighbour.

Is there any other country in the world that has a section of the population that reacts like this?

It's tragic. Revelling in their view that these figures prove their argument that Scotland is an irredeemable economic basket case, guaranteed third world status as an independent country. Wild.

[Fife-Hibee]

Lasted one minute reading the likes of Ruth Davidson's pages on Twitter, we're going nowhere as a country when politicians are orgasmic over the idea of a country being in such a poor state it requires handouts from it's generous neighbour.

Is there any other country in the world that has a section of the population that reacts like this?

Give Ruthie her due. She's only pointing out what a complete failure the UK has been for Scotland in modern times. :wink:

[G B Young]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JS4XIaVH67k

[Fife-Hibee]

Our old social media and question time friend Jane Lax.
https://www.thenational.scot/news/17852127.tory-member-suspended-jibe-first-ministers-miscarriage/?fbclid=IwAR0kofLoTr_tkIaEr-hCjB_-XGInCQhVv2zeaFKt7n9pjeWdmy3EN6DQo5M

[stoneyburn hibs]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JS4XIaVH67k

That'll be that then, all hail our overlords.

[Kato]

I said the Tin Foil hat comment was not appropriate, for that I apologise.

No apologies needed from me. Discussing the GERS figures wasn't really the reason I replied.

Whether you meant it or not re-tin foil hats :rolleyes: it's an interesting stance to take offhand "questions the figures and your a nutter".

Every Govt should be questioned, every document should be interrogated, that should be the normal position.

[James310]

No apologies needed from me. Discussing the GERS figures wasn't really the reason I replied.

Whether you meant it or not re-tin foil hats :rolleyes: it's an interesting stance to take offhand "questions the figures and your a nutter".

Every Govt should be questioned, every document should be interrogated, that should be the normal position.

It was not so much question the figures and your a nutter, that's not what I meant, but the fact it is suggested there are secret figures hidden away in the vaults of the Treasury that they refuse to share with the Scottish Government.

[The Modfather]

So in France there is not a concentration of wealth in and around Paris? In the US do you think New York and LA generate the same wealth as Dakota and Wyoming? Where there are large financial centres or commercial hubs coupled with huge populations they will generate more wealth, it's not like this is something new that has only appeared today.

In Scotland the likes of Edinburgh and Glasgow if compared to the rest of Scotland in a similar manner would have far greater wealth and financial activity than say Inverness or Dundee.

I know it wasn’t my question, but I would be keen to hear what plans and appetite there is to to changing the disparity between London and the South East and the rest of the UK. Particularly the likes of northern England that has criminally been neglected.

That disparity is one of my main drivers for independence. I’ve said before, I’d be as in favour of the rest of us breaking away from the South East of England and Westminster as I am for Scottish Independence.

[James310]

I know it wasn’t my question, but I would be keen to hear what plans and appetite there is to to changing the disparity between London and the South East and the rest of the UK. Particularly the likes of northern England that has criminally been neglected.

That disparity is one of my main drivers for independence. I’ve said before, I’d be as in favour of the rest of us breaking away from the South East of England and Westminster as I am for Scottish Independence.

I would like to know as well, if you find out let me know.

[lord bunberry]

That's an astonishing jump. Is there anywhere to find out as to why?
Scotland electing an SNP government would be my guess.

[Kato]

It was not so much question the figures and your a nutter, that's not what I meant, but the fact it is suggested there are secret figures hidden away in the vaults of the Treasury that they refuse to share with the Scottish Government.

Well there are accurate figures somewhere as there are pages and pages of estimates in the report.

[The Modfather]

I would like to know as well, if you find out let me know.

If none of us can find anything to suggest that the UK (and Westminster specifically) is ever going to seriously focus on the UK as a whole and not just the South East Of England,it’s probably a clear indication that it will be luck rather than design if the level of disparity closes.

That to me is a massive tick in the box for independence. An inclusive Scotland that shows there is another way than always being an afterthought to Westminster’s South East of England focus is maybe the catalyst that is needed. There’s lots of debates about politics not working, I would love to be somewhere that helps the likes of the north of England to evaluate how well it is served by Westminster.

[James310]

If none of us can find anything to suggest that the UK (and Westminster specifically) is ever going to seriously focus on the UK as a whole and not just the South East Of England,it’s probably a clear indication that it will be luck rather than design if the level of disparity closes.

That to me is a massive tick in the box for independence. An inclusive Scotland that shows there is another way than always being an afterthought to Westminster’s South East of England focus is maybe the catalyst that is needed. There’s lots of debates about politics not working, I would love to be somewhere that helps the likes of the north of England to evaluate how well it is served by Westminster.

I get what you are saying but is it not similar in Scotland where the focus is on Edinburgh and Glasgow.

Here is an example that I found in a matter of a few minutes where a £60M cycling and walking fund ignores the NE of Scotland, with over £40M of the fund being spent in Edinburgh and Glasgow.

https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/politics/1808930/anger-that-60-million-cycling-and-walking-fund-fails-to-include-north-and-north-east/

Was the NE an afterthought?

[stoneyburn hibs]

Scotland electing an SNP government would be my guess.

It's probably a factor 😁

[The Modfather]

I get what you are saying but is it not similar in Scotland where the focus is on Edinburgh and Glasgow.

Here is an example that I found in a matter of a few minutes where a £60M cycling and walking fund ignores the NE of Scotland, with over £40M of the fund being spent in Edinburgh and Glasgow.

https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/politics/1808930/anger-that-60-million-cycling-and-walking-fund-fails-to-include-north-and-north-east/

Was the NE an afterthought?

The NE of Scotland may well have been an afterthought in the example you found. That doesn’t change anything in my post or general feelings about Westminster being focussed on the south east of England to the detriment of all other regions of England as well as the 3 home nations.

Independence is, and always has been, about getting rid of Westminster for me as much as anything else. Any other home nations or regions of England that feel the same are welcome aboard.

[CloudSquall]

https://commonweal.scot/policy-library/beyond-gers-scotlands-fiscal-position-post-independence

Analysis by Craig Dazell on Scotland's position post independence, a couple of years old but a good read nonetheless.

[James310]

Just a reminder what the 2014 SNP White Paper said about GERs.

"The starting point for this analysis is the National Statistics publication, Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (GERS). GERS is the authoritative publication on Scotland’s public finances"

Definition of authoritative, "able to be trusted as being accurate or true; reliable"

Are we now saying the White Paper was based on unreliable data, that some say is rigged by Westminster? Cause if you think the GERs are not reliable then you are saying the SNP tried to 'sell' Independence on unreliable figures in the White Paper.

I also find it interesting when what I assume are left leaning individuals say things like why would the rest of the UK want to keep Scotland if we costed so much. I thought you would support the redistribution of wealth as that is what GERs evidences, is redistribution of wealth not a good thing?

[Ozyhibby]

I get what you are saying but is it not similar in Scotland where the focus is on Edinburgh and Glasgow.

Here is an example that I found in a matter of a few minutes where a £60M cycling and walking fund ignores the NE of Scotland, with over £40M of the fund being spent in Edinburgh and Glasgow.

https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/politics/1808930/anger-that-60-million-cycling-and-walking-fund-fails-to-include-north-and-north-east/

Was the NE an afterthought?

There is no economic focus on Scotland just now from anywhere. We are just coasting along in London’s slip stream. Totally ignored. And you are happy with that? Getting called subsidy junkies? Is that your ambition for Scotland?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[lord bunberry]

There is no economic focus on Scotland just now from anywhere. We are just coasting along in London’s slip stream. Totally ignored. And you are happy with that? Getting called subsidy junkies? Is that your ambition for Scotland?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I would say it is, he seems happiest at this time of year when these figures are released.

[James310]

There is no economic focus on Scotland just now from anywhere. We are just coasting along in London’s slip stream. Totally ignored. And you are happy with that? Getting called subsidy junkies? Is that your ambition for Scotland?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Well if there is no economic focus on Scotland from anywhere what are the Scottish Government doing?

Derek MacKay said only a few months ago:

“With nine consecutive quarters of growth and a record high employment rate of 75.9%, Scotland’s economy continues to go from strength to strength.

“Growing the economy is a priority for the Scottish Government and we can see from these results it is working. We have provided more than £5 billion of capital investment to build and modernise Scotland’s infrastructure, and a wider package of support to businesses including maintaining a competitive business rates package and providing the most generous package of non-domestic rates reliefs anywhere in the UK"

So that does not really tally up with your first statement at all.

Your the one that said subsidy junkie, not me, not a term I would use.

[James310]

I would say it is, he seems happiest at this time of year when these figures are released.

As I said last night it was not me that brought this up, I never even knew they were being published today until I saw the post by another poster. But I am happy to point out the inconsistency and hypocritical arguments we have seen today.

Like the 2014 SNP White Paper in which it states that GERS "is the authoritative publication on Scotland’s public finances"

So can I ask if you are questioning the validity of the figures today, is it right we can then also question the figures used in what was the sales brochure for Independence in 2014? It's an inconsistency that needs pointed out, would you agree?

[Ozyhibby]

Well if there is no economic focus on Scotland from anywhere what are the Scottish Government doing?

Derek MacKay said only a few months ago:

“With nine consecutive quarters of growth and a record high employment rate of 75.9%, Scotland’s economy continues to go from strength to strength.

“Growing the economy is a priority for the Scottish Government and we can see from these results it is working. We have provided more than £5 billion of capital investment to build and modernise Scotland’s infrastructure, and a wider package of support to businesses including maintaining a competitive business rates package and providing the most generous package of non-domestic rates reliefs anywhere in the UK"

So that does not really tally up with your first statement at all.

Your the one that said subsidy junkie, not me, not a term I would use.

The Scottish govt does it’s best but let’s face it, it has no economic powers to make any difference. The UK govt controls the business environment and they have no plan whatsoever for Scotland. None at all.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Glory Lurker]

How can Scotland, with all the resources it has, be so fiscally inept? How has this happened?

[James310]

The Scottish govt does it’s best but let’s face it, it has no economic powers to make any difference. The UK govt controls the business environment and they have no plan whatsoever for Scotland. None at all.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

So he is crediting who when he says;

"With nine consecutive quarters of growth and a record high employment rate of 75.9%, Scotland’s economy continues to go from strength to strength."

You telling me he is thanking the UK Westminster government for the economy going from strength to strength?

Let's not get into how joining the EU and having the ECB setting interest rates and monetary policy will give Scotland the levers it needs, that's for another day.

As an aside I don't think I have been saying Scotland is a subsidy junkie, we need England for hand outs etc, that's all language others have used to suit their arguments and it suits them to suggest that's what I say or think. I have only pointed out inconsistency and hypocrisy where I have seen it.

[marinello59]

It's tragic. Revelling in their view that these figures prove their argument that Scotland is an irredeemable economic basket case, guaranteed third world status as an independent country. Wild.

What’s tragic is so many Indy supporters wasting time moaning about the spin put on this by their opponents without focusing on the case that can be made for Independence using these figures. We are supposed to be winning people over.

[lord bunberry]

As I said last night it was not me that brought this up, I never even knew they were being published today until I saw the post by another poster. But I am happy to point out the inconsistency and hypocritical arguments we have seen today.

Like the 2014 SNP White Paper in which it states that GERS "is the authoritative publication on Scotland’s public finances"

So can I ask if you are questioning the validity of the figures today, is it right we can then also question the figures used in what was the sales brochure for Independence in 2014? It's an inconsistency that needs pointed out, would you agree?
I’m 100% questioning the validity of the figures when they’re being used by people like you to bash independence. They have absolutely no relevance to the debate as the deficit isn’t run up by the Scottish government. Figures that include spending on things that have no relevance to Scotland or military spending that Scotland wouldn’t spend post independence or Scotland’s share of debt repayments that the UK government ran up completely distort the gers figures. The Scottish government can say whatever it likes, but most people will look at them and pick huge holes in them.
The tories constantly point to these figures and suggest that Scotland has the biggest deficit in Europe which is a complete lie. Do you agree with the figures being distorted to say we have the largest deficit in Europe?

[James310]

What’s tragic is so many Indy supporters wasting time moaning about the spin put on this by their opponents without focusing on the case that can be made for Independence using these figures. We are supposed to be winning people over.

How can they when they fundamentally don't believe the figures to be true in the first place? There must have been numerous links today to an economist who has described them as made up numbers that are rigged by Westminster. If they believe that then expecting people to use them as you suggest is never going to happen.

[lord bunberry]

What’s tragic is so many Indy supporters wasting time moaning about the spin put on this by their opponents without focusing on the case that can be made for Independence using these figures. We are supposed to be winning people over.
It’s not tragic when the media are reporting these figures as a reason to keep the status quo. The economic case is the hardest one to win and these figures being used in the way they are make convincing people all the harder.

[Glory Lurker]

What’s tragic is so many Indy supporters wasting time moaning about the spin put on this by their opponents without focusing on the case that can be made for Independence using these figures. We are supposed to be winning people over.

I don't think the folk that are behaving the way I've described will ever be won over.

Trust me, I brim with the positive case for independence and know full well we need more support to win!

[Glory Lurker]

How can they when they fundamentally don't believe the figures to be true in the first place? There must have been numerous links today to an economist who has described them as made up numbers that are rigged by Westminster. If they believe that then expecting people to use them as you suggest is never going to happen.

M59's response was to me. Nothing you've said there is accurate about me.

[allmodcons]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JS4XIaVH67k

Scotland in Union lol. They'll be completely impartial.

Anybody who thinks these figures are correct is completely deluded and that includes NS and DM.

Every small Independent country in Northern Europe has an 'acceptable' deficit as a percentage of GDP yet Scotland, as part of the UK, has a notional deficit of 7% and Wales is apparently a complete basket case at around 19% of GDP!!! This when the UK figure is 1.1%!!!

It's a load of bollocks and, sadly, the SNP have been stupid enough to give these figures some credence.

If it's not a load of bollocks both Scotland and more so Wales have been absolutely destroyed as part of the UK.

As an aside, Ruth Davidson's comments should make any right minded citizen boke. To hear an elected politician revelling in the supposed knowledge that her homeland is a basket case economically is as brutal and embarrassing as it gets.

[James310]

I’m 100% questioning the validity of the figures when they’re being used by people like you to bash independence. They have absolutely no relevance to the debate as the deficit isn’t run up by the Scottish government. Figures that include spending on things that have no relevance to Scotland or military spending that Scotland wouldn’t spend post independence or Scotland’s share of debt repayments that the UK government ran up completely distort the gers figures. The Scottish government can say whatever it likes, but most people will look at them and pick huge holes in them.
The tories constantly point to these figures and suggest that Scotland has the biggest deficit in Europe which is a complete lie. Do you agree with the figures being distorted to say we have the largest deficit in Europe?

You can't have it both ways, you either accept the figures with the known caveats or you don't. So you are saying you don't believe what you were told in 2014 in the White Paper, does that not worry you that people were going to make such a significant choice that were based on figures you don't think are reliable or trustworthy?

The SNP Growth Commission Report also acknowledges and references GERs. From the FoA institute.

"GERS does provide a pretty accurate picture of where Scotland is in 2019. In doing so – and as the Growth Commission acknowledged in 2018 – it sets the starting point for a discussion about the immediate choices, opportunities and challenges that need to be addressed by those advocating new fiscal arrangements. And here the challenge is stark, with a likely deficit far in excess of the UK as a whole, other comparable countries or that which is deemed to be sustainable in the long-term"

So you are questioning the whole economic case that the SNP has built it's push for Indy on. Does it not concern you then that both the White Paper and the Growth Commission Report are based on these figures you dispute yet that what people are being sold as the future in an Independent Scotland?

You need to start questioning the likes of Andrew Wilson then the author of the report and ask why he seem comfortable to use them.

[weecounty hibby]

What’s tragic is so many Indy supporters wasting time moaning about the spin put on this by their opponents without focusing on the case that can be made for Independence using these figures. We are supposed to be winning people over.
Totally with you on this. When I look at these numbers I see them as an opportunity to emphasise the benefits of a Scotland free to make its own financial decisions. An opportunity to say look at other small independent countries and guage their deficit against ours. Kind of like Ruth was doing earlier. Folk who go on about made up numbers and other conspiracy theories should focus their energies on how we show these figures actually could be a good thing given how little control we have over them

[marinello59]

How can they when they fundamentally don't believe the figures to be true in the first place? There must have been numerous links today to an economist who has described them as made up numbers that are rigged by Westminster. If they believe that then expecting people to use them as you suggest is never going to happen.

It will happen. STV went with Scottish deficit ( notional or otherwise 😃) cut. Oz has mentioned how the figures should be seen as good news by the Scottish Government.

[James310]

M59's response was to me. Nothing you've said there is accurate about me.

My reply was a general reply, not aimed at you.

I do note that you seem to be the only one calling Scotland a "irredeemable economic basket case" though. Has anyone on here used that language today? Or just you.

[cabbageandribs1875]

22430



we must really be a drain on the english economy, they should gain their independence from us

[Moulin Yarns]

I get what you are saying but is it not similar in Scotland where the focus is on Edinburgh and Glasgow.

Here is an example that I found in a matter of a few minutes where a £60M cycling and walking fund ignores the NE of Scotland, with over £40M of the fund being spent in Edinburgh and Glasgow.

https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/politics/1808930/anger-that-60-million-cycling-and-walking-fund-fails-to-include-north-and-north-east/

Was the NE an afterthought?

£3Bn being spent North of Perth is not favouring the central belt. #JUSTSAYING

https://www.transport.gov.scot/projects/a9-dualling-perth-to-inverness/programme-details/

[allmodcons]

I’m 100% questioning the validity of the figures when they’re being used by people like you to bash independence. They have absolutely no relevance to the debate as the deficit isn’t run up by the Scottish government. Figures that include spending on things that have no relevance to Scotland or military spending that Scotland wouldn’t spend post independence or Scotland’s share of debt repayments that the UK government ran up completely distort the gers figures. The Scottish government can say whatever it likes, but most people will look at them and pick huge holes in them.
The tories constantly point to these figures and suggest that Scotland has the biggest deficit in Europe which is a complete lie. Do you agree with the figures being distorted to say we have the largest deficit in Europe?

:agree:

[lord bunberry]

You can't have it both ways, you either accept the figures with the known caveats or you don't. So you are saying you don't believe what you were told in 2014 in the White Paper, does that not worry you that people were going to make such a significant choice that were based on figures you don't think are reliable or trustworthy?

The SNP Growth Commission Report also acknowledges and references GERs. From the FoA institute.

"GERS does provide a pretty accurate picture of where Scotland is in 2019. In doing so – and as the Growth Commission acknowledged in 2018 – it sets the starting point for a discussion about the immediate choices, opportunities and challenges that need to be addressed by those advocating new fiscal arrangements. And here the challenge is stark, with a likely deficit far in excess of the UK as a whole, other comparable countries or that which is deemed to be sustainable in the long-term"

So you are questioning the whole economic case that the SNP has built it's push for Indy on. Does it not concern you then that both the White Paper and the Growth Commission Report are based on these figures you dispute yet that what people are being sold as the future in an Independent Scotland?

You need to start questioning the likes of Andrew Wilson then the author of the report and ask why he sees comfortable to use them.
He’s comfortable with using them because most people can look at them and see them for what they are. Unionists only look at the bottom line and try to weaponise it. Most people can see that so much of the money being spent on our behalf wouldn’t be spent in an independent Scotland. Surely even you can see that. It’s absolutely ridiculous to suggest that Scotland is responsible for 53% of the UK deficit.

[Glory Lurker]

My reply was a general reply, not aimed at you.

I do note that you seem to be the only one calling Scotland a "irredeemable economic basket case" though. Has anyone on here used that language today? Or just you.

I don't get your point? You've also taken it out of context.

[weecounty hibby]

He’s comfortable with using them because most people can look at them and see them for what they are. Unionists only look at the bottom line and try to weaponise it. Most people can see that so much of the money being spent on our behalf wouldn’t be spent in an independent Scotland. Surely even you can see that. It’s absolutely ridiculous to suggest that Scotland is responsible for 53% of the UK deficit.
That is the thing, although I say we should use these numbers for our benefit in the argument. Surely no one can possibly believe that if we really did contribute 53% that the Tory party(at least) would not cut Scotland loose. Even the strongest unionist in their unionist party wouldn't stand for that!!

[allmodcons]

He’s comfortable with using them because most people can look at them and see them for what they are. Unionists only look at the bottom line and try to weaponise it. Most people can see that so much of the money being spent on our behalf wouldn’t be spent in an independent Scotland. Surely even you can see that. It’s absolutely ridiculous to suggest that Scotland is responsible for 53% of the UK deficit.

Agreed again LB. I just don't buy this nonsense.

[lord bunberry]

That is the thing, although I say we should use these numbers for our benefit in the argument. Surely no one can possibly believe that if we really did contribute 53% that the Tory party(at least) would not cut Scotland loose. Even the strongest unionist in their unionist party wouldn't stand for that!!


Agreed again LB. I just don't buy this nonsense.
Absolutely, it’s utterly preposterous to suggest that this is the case. There’s absolutely no way the UK government would allow such a situation to arise. I’m no fan of the UK government, but even they’re not that stupid.

[allmodcons]

Absolutely, it’s utterly preposterous to suggest that this is the case. There’s absolutely no way the UK government would allow such a situation to arise. I’m no fan of the UK government, but even they’re not that stupid.

In a country of 66 million citizens, Scotland with a population of 5.4 million is responsible for 53% of the national deficit!!!

As I've already said, I think GERS is a load of bollocks. If I'm wrong I think it would be 'fair' to say that Scotland, as part of the UK, has been badly served.

[Hibrandenburg]

What’s tragic is so many Indy supporters wasting time moaning about the spin put on this by their opponents without focusing on the case that can be made for Independence using these figures. We are supposed to be winning people over.

:agree: Scotland is not alone here, there are regions all over the country that are running at a deficit and relying on the south east to keep all our heads above water. This begs the questions as to why Westminster allows such a huge centralisation of wealth in the south east at the expense of all the other regions?

[lord bunberry]

In a country of 66 million citizens, Scotland with a population of 5.4 million is responsible for 53% of the national deficit!!!

As I've already said, I think GERS is a load of bollocks. If I'm wrong I think it would be 'fair' to say that Scotland, as part of the UK, has been badly served.
It would also suggest that Scotland is an economic basket case. The truth is that the Scottish economy is currently outperforming the rUK economy and unemployment is lower here as well. How under these circumstances are we running up a debt that is 53% of the UK? It’s simply not possible. I understand why the Scottish government accept these figures, but if you delve into them there’s so many estimates based on things out with our control it makes the figures not worth the paper they’re written on.

[James310]

The 53% deficit seems to be causing some confusion.

If A has a deficit of -£50, B has a deficit of -£50 and C has a surplus of +£50 then the total deficit is £50 and A's deficit is 100% of that total.

That's how it's worked out.

Personally don't think it's that relevant. It's certainly not mentioned in some of the articles I have read, but seems to be a big deal here.

[lord bunberry]

Here is an example of of what I was talking about earlier in the thread about unionists using these figures as a tool to bash independence
https://twitter.com/willie_rennie/status/1164165847679741952?s=21

[Fife-Hibee]

They'll never be a case for independence as long as people continue to take GERS seriously. It's designed to ensure that forever remains the case.

[lord bunberry]

Here’s Ruth doing her bit
https://twitter.com/ruthdavidsonmsp/status/1164116797764833280?s=21

[The Modfather]

The 53% deficit seems to be causing some confusion.

If A has a deficit of -£50, B has a deficit of -£50 and C has a surplus of +£50 then the total deficit is £50 and A's deficit is 100% of that total.

That's how it's worked out.

Personally don't think it's that relevant. It's certainly not mentioned in some of the articles I have read, but seems to be a big deal here.

It’s not as black and white as that though is it. In your scenario the overall deficit levels out at -£50, fine. The issue is everything being weighted towards C (London & the SE). Which in doing so makes it so much harder for A & B to have the means to either lower their deficit, or improve the infrastructure.

I go down to Sheffield once a year for the snooker and anything outside a 5 minute walking radius of the Crucible is a bleak hopeless place. Sheffield isn’t the only large northern town that’s been forgotten about.

[James310]

He’s comfortable with using them because most people can look at them and see them for what they are. Unionists only look at the bottom line and try to weaponise it. Most people can see that so much of the money being spent on our behalf wouldn’t be spent in an independent Scotland. Surely even you can see that. It’s absolutely ridiculous to suggest that Scotland is responsible for 53% of the UK deficit.

You never really answered my point on the White Paper and Growth Commission, if you did I am not following. Are you not uncomfortable that the 2 'sales brochures' used by the SNP are based on the figures you dispute? I don't think we got to the bottom of that.

If you are comfortable then explain how when you rubbish the figures, if you rubbish the figures you must surely think the 2 reports were in turn rubbish as well?

[James310]

It’s not as black and white as that though is it. In your scenario the overall deficit levels out at -£50, fine. The issue is everything being weighted towards C (London & the SE). Which in doing so makes it so much harder for A & B to have the means to either lower their deficit, or improve the infrastructure.

I go down to Sheffield once a year for the snooker and anything outside a 5 minute walking radius of the Crucible is a bleak hopeless place. Sheffield isn’t the only large northern town that’s been forgotten about.

I am just pointing out the maths that some people don't seem to get.

I do agree that there are areas outside of London and the SE that need more investment, just like there will be many areas in inner London that are desperately lacking as well. It's been like that for a long time, does not make it right but it's a long term issue not something that's suddenly happened overnight.

Is it not a good thing that the report shows Scotland actually has a higher than average spending on public services, how can that be a bad thing?

[James310]

They'll never be a case for independence as long as people continue to take GERS seriously. It's designed to ensure that forever remains the case.

Andrew Wilson who literally wrote the case for Independence took them seriously.

Are you suggesting the SNP are not taking the case for Independence seriously?

If Nationalists don't believe the numbers in the White Paper and Growth Commission Report then why should Unionists.

[The Modfather]

I am just pointing out the maths that some people don't seem to get.

I do agree that there are areas outside of London and the SE that need more investment, just like there will be many areas in inner London that are desperately lacking as well. It's been like that for a long time, does not make it right but it's a long term issue not something that's suddenly happened overnight.

Is it not a good thing that the report shows Scotland actually has a higher than average spending on public services, how can that be a bad thing?

That’s the crux of the problem, vast parts of the country have been forgotten about for a long long time. Nothing will change in that respect either. The union is really just London & the SE, and the rest of us. Westminster is fundamentally broken, time for Scotland to lead by example and show that things can be done differently.

[lord bunberry]

You never really answered my point on the White Paper and Growth Commission, if you did I am not following. Are you not uncomfortable that the 2 'sales brochures' used by the SNP are based on the figures you dispute? I don't think we got to the bottom of that.

If you are comfortable then explain how when you rubbish the figures, if you rubbish the figures you must surely think the 2 reports were in turn rubbish as well?
Of course I dispute the figures. The Scottish government has no choice, but to use them, but they have every right to caveat them. I asked you earlier if you believe the figures are an accurate reflection on how spending is apportioned in the UK and if you think it’s credible that Scotland is responsible for 53% of the UK deficit,you’ve yet to give us you’re opinion on that.

[lord bunberry]

I’ve got a great idea to address the problem of Scotland draining the UK of money. Give us all a million pound and we won’t need any subsidies. Surely that will cheaper than us leaching £12 billion a year.

[Fife-Hibee]

I’ve got a great idea to address the problem of Scotland draining the UK of money. Give us all a million pound and we won’t need any subsidies. Surely that will cheaper than us leaching £12 billion a year.

I'm pretty sure there's a miscalculation in there somewhere. :greengrin

[lord bunberry]

I'm pretty sure there's a miscalculation in there somewhere. :greengrin
Probably, but it’s more credible than the figures released today.

[Fife-Hibee]

Norway generated over £23bn (251bn NOK) in tax revenues from their petroleum industry in 2018 and are projected to generate over £24bn this year.
https://www.norskpetroleum.no/en/economy/governments-revenues/

£23 BILLION

That would sort out Scotlands 'nominal' deficit if the UK Government wasn't able to deliberately mismanage our oil industry.

[James310]

Of course I dispute the figures. The Scottish government has no choice, but to use them, but they have every right to caveat them. I asked you earlier if you believe the figures are an accurate reflection on how spending is apportioned in the UK and if you think it’s credible that Scotland is responsible for 53% of the UK deficit,you’ve yet to give us you’re opinion on that.

It's worrying then that if we had voted Yes in 2014 it was based on figures you believe to be incorrect.
So if you stand by your conviction then we would have voted Yes based on a bunch of lies, something the Yes side have accused the No side of spreading throughout the campaign.

Tell me why anyone should vote Yes then based on the Growth Commission Report which is based on the same numbers?

Like I said the figures are a starting point, I agree with what the FoA institute say. The SNP leadership seem to agree with me as well, which is an odd situation where I agree with them and you don't. As for the 53% as I have illustrated it's nothing more than a simple maths calculation that has been done, it only seems to be an issue for a few and it's not something I have seen or read about in any analysis other than on here and by those who seem to want to use it as some kind of proof the figures are made up. In the scale of things it's meaningless figure.

Do you not think the redistribution of wealth is a good thing?

[James310]

That’s the crux of the problem, vast parts of the country have been forgotten about for a long long time. Nothing will change in that respect either. The union is really just London & the SE, and the rest of us. Westminster is fundamentally broken, time for Scotland to lead by example and show that things can be done differently.

Is it a good thing or a bad thing Scotland gets higher public spending per person than the rest of the UK?

[Ozyhibby]

Is it a good thing or a bad thing Scotland gets higher public spending per person than the rest of the UK?

Does that have to stop after independence?


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[James310]

Does that have to stop after independence?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Do you often answer questions by ignoring it and asking another question?

I don't know, I can't seem to find an economic plan for an independent Scotland. Should I base my decision on the Growth Commission Report that advocates public spending caps? Or should I ignore that now as it's based on figures that nobody seems to take seriously now.

Analysis from the IFS from 2018.

"To reduce the 5.9% deficit, the Commission proposes that total public expenditure (excluding debt interest) should increase by 1% less per year than GDP for the first decade of independence. With assumed real GDP growth of 1.5% a year, that means holding down real growth in spending on public services and benefits to 0.5% a year.

Such an approach would see spending on public services and benefits fall by about 4% of GDP over that decade. Add on the growing amount the Scottish government would have to spend on servicing its increasing post-independence debt, and overall public spending and hence the deficit would fall by 3% of GDP. Together with some assumed but unspecified efficiency savings (0.3% of GDP), that brings the forecast deficit down to 2.6% of GDP one decade after Scottish independence"

So I would say the answer is very likely yes, it would have to stop.

But confused now if I take this Government publication seriously or not, what do you think?

[The Modfather]

Is it a good thing or a bad thing Scotland gets higher public spending per person than the rest of the UK?

A good thing. Is it a good or a bad thing the union favours London and the SE to the detriment of other parts, like the north of England?

[James310]

A good thing. Is it a good or a bad thing the union favours London and the SE to the detriment of other parts, like the north of England?

A bad thing. So do we canel each other out?!

[ronaldo7]

The £63 billion we raise in taxes, is enough to cover our current grant from Westminster, all our pensions, and social policies.

The remainder is used by the UK government to assign the costs to us for their need to be a nuclear power, and all those large infrastructure projects, south of the border.

Imagine if we were, "allowed" to have our own immigration policy to grow our economy, and found out where all those "unknown regions" were in the north Sea

[James310]

I think we are going around in circles now. The biggest single take away point for me is not so much the actual numbers, but the reaction to the numbers.

If you honestly believe them to be made up and untrue then you have a big problem. The economic future plans for an independent Scotland published by the SNP are based on these figures, if you dispute the figures you dispute the economic plan. If you dispute the economic plan, you have no plan.

That's a big problem for you.

[James310]

The £63 billion we raise in taxes, is enough to cover our current grant from Westminster, all our pensions, and social policies.

The remainder is used by the UK government to assign the costs to us for their need to be a nuclear power, and all those large infrastructure projects, south of the border.

Imagine if we were, "allowed" to have our own immigration policy to grow our economy, and found out where all those "unknown regions" were in the north Sea

If it was that simple why does the Growth Commission report not say exactly what you have put? Odd that they just don't print what you say word for word and then surely that's the debate over?

[The Modfather]

A bad thing. So do we canel each other out?!

I wouldn’t say they do, no. I thought I’d simply follow suite and ask black and white questions that don’t really advance the debate.

The picture of the union I see today is one of disparity, isolationism and a lurch to the right. That’s even before the economic suicide of Brexit. What is it you see Westminster doing differently with, presumably, less resources post Brexit? What is the positive case for a post Brexit Britain? I suspect you’ll choose not to answer as “you’re not the one proposing change”, but that’s a case that will need to be made in a referendum as simply talking about the perils, as you see them, of independence won’t be enough to win again given the changes currently happening in the union. There’s no longer any status quo option.

[Ozyhibby]

I wouldn’t say they do, no. I thought I’d simply follow suite and ask black and white questions that don’t really advance the debate.

The picture of the union I see today is one of disparity, isolationism and a lurch to the right. That’s even before the economic suicide of Brexit. What is it you see Westminster doing differently with, presumably, less resources post Brexit? What is the positive case for a post Brexit Britain? I suspect you’ll choose not to answer as “you’re not the one proposing change”, but that’s a case that will need to be made in a referendum as simply talking about the perils, as you see them, of independence won’t be enough to win again given the changes currently happening in the union. There’s no longer any status quo option.

There is no positive case for the union anymore. It’s just an emotional one for some people. You can’t reach those people but there are plenty of people who can be reached with a clear consistent message that we can be like our close neighbours who are also independent. Not better or worse necessarily but similar. There is nothing special about us after all. Right now though we have a worse standard of living as part of the UK and there is no plan for fixing it by the UK govt.


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[ronaldo7]

If it was that simple why does the Growth Commission report not say exactly what you have put? Odd that they just don't print what you say word for word and then surely that's the debate over?

Are you disputing that £63 billion per annum is not enough to run a country of just over 5 million people?

Have you just found the unknown regions in the North Sea?

[James310]

I wouldn’t say they do, no. I thought I’d simply follow suite and ask black and white questions that don’t really advance the debate.

The picture of the union I see today is one of disparity, isolationism and a lurch to the right. That’s even before the economic suicide of Brexit. What is it you see Westminster doing differently with, presumably, less resources post Brexit? What is the positive case for a post Brexit Britain? I suspect you’ll choose not to answer as “you’re not the one proposing change”, but that’s a case that will need to be made in a referendum as simply talking about the perils, as you see them, of independence won’t be enough to win again given the changes currently happening in the union. There’s no longer any status quo option.

I am totally opposed to Brexit so I am waiting to see what happens like the rest of us. I hope there is some positives but I am struggling to see many. A no deal Brexit is the worst possible outcome.

[James310]

Are you disputing that £63 billion per annum is not enough to run a country of just over 5 million people?

Have you just found the unknown regions in the North Sea?

If what you say is true the SNP would have full page adverts in every paper just stating what you have said word for word, I wonder why they don't?

How does what you say tally up with the Growth Commission report, it clearly doesn't.

If you want to believe it's as simple as that and the economic future of Scotland is based on that assertion you crack on.

[ronaldo7]

The gers figures yesterday, suggests that, Scotland spent £3.3 billion on defence. Or £600 for every man, woman, and child, whilst food banks are on the rise.

We have different options to choose as an independent country.

It's all there folks, you just have to look at the figures, provided to us by the civil service.

[Hibrandenburg]

I think we are going around in circles now. The biggest single take away point for me is not so much the actual numbers, but the reaction to the numbers.

If you honestly believe them to be made up and untrue then you have a big problem. The economic future plans for an independent Scotland published by the SNP are based on these figures, if you dispute the figures you dispute the economic plan. If you dispute the economic plan, you have no plan.

That's a big problem for you.

There's only really a couple of conclusions that can be drawn from this GERS and bearing in mind that Scotland is rich in natural resources and skills needed to be a successful nation, either:

1. The Scottish economy is so incredibly mismanaged by Westminster that it manages to run a huge deficit 7 times that the size of the UK average.

Or


2. GERS is a load of tosh.

[ronaldo7]

If what you say is true the SNP would have full page adverts in every paper just stating what you have said word for word, I wonder why they don't?

How does what you say tally up with the Growth Commission report, it clearly doesn't.

If you want to believe it's as simple as that and the economic future of Scotland is based on that assertion you crack on.

Answer the questions.

[CloudSquall]

I think from both sides there needs to be a vast improvement in the discussion surrounding GERs, without sounding cringy it needs to be brought to the level of grown up independent nations.

From the unionist side, currently all I read is "Pooling and Sharing resources" which is political speech for "pool everything into London and use it to subsidize the rest of the UK".


If we are in the position that GERs suggests, what is the investment strategy for Scotland? Immigration policy? Tax policy?

What are we doing to make sure Scotland is self-sufficient?

What happens if another financial crisis comes along and cripples London, which according to unionists is now the only thing keeping us afloat?


From the Yes side we need to show what is wrong with GERs (the government has made the mistake in not challenging it) but also use what we can from it to say "here's our position, here is what we can/will do to improve on it with independence".

The link I had posted from Craig Dazell is a start on this, different policies on spending and immigration are a significant start.

[Callum_62]

I think we are going around in circles now. The biggest single take away point for me is not so much the actual numbers, but the reaction to the numbers.

If you honestly believe them to be made up and untrue then you have a big problem. The economic future plans for an independent Scotland published by the SNP are based on these figures, if you dispute the figures you dispute the economic plan. If you dispute the economic plan, you have no plan.

That's a big problem for you.Ofcourse the reaction to the numbers is one of sceptism

The graph from 2012 onwards is worthy of proper analysis and clarity

It shouldnt just be waved away as oil prices as the price of oil from its lowest point to its bounceback isn't reflected in that graph

When the numbers are painting countries as complete and total economic disatsers then they must be questioned and explained

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[James310]

Answer the questions.

That's amusing you demanding I answer your questions when you failed to answer mine. If I answer your question which I am fully prepared to do, will you answer mine? I am guessing you won't?

[Callum_62]

I am totally opposed to Brexit so I am waiting to see what happens like the rest of us. I hope there is some positives but I am struggling to see many. A no deal Brexit is the worst possible outcome.One that if it happens could possibly turn you into a yes voter?

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[ronaldo7]

If what you say is true the SNP would have full page adverts in every paper just stating what you have said word for word, I wonder why they don't?

How does what you say tally up with the Growth Commission report, it clearly doesn't.

If you want to believe it's as simple as that and the economic future of Scotland is based on that assertion you crack on.

You preface the question by an assumption that the SNP will run full page ads in every newspaper. Why do you assume that?

Care to answer my questions now?

[allmodcons]

The 53% deficit seems to be causing some confusion.

If A has a deficit of -£50, B has a deficit of -£50 and C has a surplus of +£50 then the total deficit is £50 and A's deficit is 100% of that total.

That's how it's worked out.

Personally don't think it's that relevant. It's certainly not mentioned in some of the articles I have read, but seems to be a big deal here.

I totally get where you are coming from J310 but bottom line is that the UK has 4 constituent countries Scotland, Wales, NI and England.

We know that the UK deficit is circa £23b, Scotland's notional deficit is supposedly £12b. Really?

If this is correct you have to ask yourself a) how Westminster has managed to make Scotland a near basket case economy ? and b) how it is that every small Independent Northern European country is streets ahead of Scotland ?

[Callum_62]

Cant question the figures though [emoji849][emoji848]https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190822/644c82b287b13c9fe232910e9fd57bb3.jpg

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[James310]

You preface the question by an assumption that the SNP will run full page ads in every newspaper. Why do you assume that?

Care to answer my questions now?

As agreed I will answer your question fully and comprehensively when you answer mine. You can keep going as much as you like but your just exposing your own failure to answer my question from a few days ago.

It seems a reasonable approach if we both agree to fully answer each other's questions?

[allmodcons]

As agreed I will answer your question fully and comprehensively when you answer mine. You can keep going as much as you like but your just exposing your own failure to answer my question from a few days ago.

It seems a reasonable approach if we both agree to fully answer each other's questions?

You could, of course, rise above this tit for tat nonsense and provide a comprehensive answer to the questions asked of you. If nothing else, surely it will strengthen your argument.

[ronaldo7]

As agreed I will answer your question fully and comprehensively when you answer mine. You can keep going as much as you like but your just exposing your own failure to answer my question from a few days ago.

It seems a reasonable approach if we both agree to fully answer each other's questions?

I'm sorry, I've been out working, earning taxes for our government to spend on baby boxes.

To save me trolling through pages of posts, what was the question?

[Ozyhibby]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190822/0c77337e6eec528d49c9c062d5d6a86c.jpg


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[Moulin Yarns]

The gers figures yesterday, suggests that, Scotland spent £3.3 billion on defence. Or £600 for every man, woman, and child, whilst food banks are on the rise.

We have different options to choose as an independent country.

It's all there folks, you just have to look at the figures, provided to us by the civil service.


There's only really a couple of conclusions that can be drawn from this GERS and bearing in mind that Scotland is rich in natural resources and skills needed to be a successful nation, either:

1. The Scottish economy is so incredibly mismanaged by Westminster that it manages to run a huge deficit 7 times that the size of the UK average.

Or


2. GERS is a load of tosh.

A number of things about the figures that don't appear to be picked up on.

As Ronaldo says, £3.3Bn to UK Military per year which would be prioritised differently in iScot

Also,

£3.16Bn in debt payments by Westminster.

1.71Bn on UK "Service Costs" whatever that means

£989m on "International Services"

All of the above £9Bn is decided by Westminster and not Scotland, suggesting that a decent slice of £9Bn cold be removed from the notional deficit.

In total Westminster allocated £75.3Bn towards Scotland in costs but Scotland has no say in large amounts of the costs and where it is spent.

TAX> Total tax revenue estimated for Scotland is £62.7Bn, £17.4Bn is devolved. Imagine if the whole amount was devolved?

Oil Revenue > How is oil revenue dropping when production is increasing? something isn't right. The gap between the GERS figures excluding and including oi revenue has been converging since 2012, (I've highlighted this before) yes the price dropped, but it has since risen again to somewhere around 75% of the pre 2012 figure. OPEC figures show production was c870,000 barrels in 2012, dropping to c780,000 in 2014 and rising to c985,000 barrels last year, so surely the tax raised should reflect this, but it doesn't. What is being hidden from us? Production in the first quarter of 2019 is over 1Bn barrels, wonder how that will be shown in next years GERS?


Do we believe the GERS figures as a true reflection of where Scotland is now? I think I do.

Do we believe the GERS figures as a true reflection of where Scotland should be now? I definitely don't.

Do we believe the GERS figures as a true reflection of where an independent Scotland could be? I definitely don't.

[James310]

I'm sorry, I've been out working, earning taxes for our government to spend on baby boxes.

To save me trolling through pages of posts, what was the question?

When you talk to soft No voters and they say "tell me about what currency we would use" what is your response, as previously you said you did not care what it was and I would be surprised if you said the same to them.

[Ozyhibby]

When you talk to soft No voters and they say "tell me about what currency we would use" what is your response, as previously you said you did not care what it was and I would be surprised if you said the same to them.

They will be happy if we say ‘anything but the pound’ soon enough.[emoji23]


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[James310]

They will be happy if we say ‘anything but the pound’ soon enough.[emoji23]


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Maybe, except it is the pound for potentially a long period of time.

[Moulin Yarns]

When you talk to soft No voters and they say "tell me about what currency we would use" what is your response, as previously you said you did not care what it was and I would be surprised if you said the same to them.

:rolleyes:

Do you have any other argument?

Right now the UK government has borrowed £16Bn since April, more than half the projected annual borrowing, and has managed to have a decrease in the surplus by 50% on last year, and that is with the large July tax taken into account. There is no reasonable argument to support this government.

[The Modfather]

I am totally opposed to Brexit so I am waiting to see what happens like the rest of us. I hope there is some positives but I am struggling to see many. A no deal Brexit is the worst possible outcome.

Like Callum62 said, is a no deal Brexit a game changer for you and you might consider independence in that scenario?

A genuine question, I’ve said before that despite favouring independence if it hadn’t been for Brexit I’d have unfortunately struggled to see the case for a second referendum. So nothing wrong with opinions changing as events unfold.

[Moulin Yarns]

Maybe, except it is the pound for potentially a long period of time.

How do you figure that? Nothing has been decided yet.

And the debate will start going round again in ever decreasing circles until it disappears up the arse of the fiscal policy. :wink:

[ronaldo7]

When you talk to soft No voters and they say "tell me about what currency we would use" what is your response, as previously you said you did not care what it was and I would be surprised if you said the same to them.

I've never been asked that question, but if they did, I'd say that we'll decide which name to put to a currency when that situation arises, we will have a currency though, as the barter system is so last century. Now, care to answer mine

[James310]

How do you figure that? Nothing has been decided yet.

And the debate will start going round again in ever decreasing circles until it disappears up the arse of the fiscal policy. :wink:

It was decided at the SNP conference. Keep up.

[James310]

I've never been asked that question, but if they did, I'd say that we'll decide which name to put to a currency when that situation arises, we will have a currency though, as the barter system is so last century Now, care to answer mine

I was not talking about the name of the currency! Come on, you knew that.

What's the plan for the first few years of Independence?

I expected a non answer and you never disappointed.

To answer your question then no I don't believe £63BN is enough, as evidenced by GERs as public spending was £75.3BN.

That leaves a gap.

[Moulin Yarns]

It was decided at the SNP conference. Keep up.

And somehow you know the make up of the Scottish Parliament in the future?

[CloudSquall]

When you talk to soft No voters and they say "tell me about what currency we would use" what is your response, as previously you said you did not care what it was and I would be surprised if you said the same to them.

Current pound sterling until conditions are right to move to a separate Scottish pound if that is the choice of the Scottish electorate, continuing to use the pound or adoption of the euro are other options on the table if a government supporting those options is elected.

[ronaldo7]

I was not talking about the name of the currency! Come on, you knew that.

What's the plan for the first few years of Independence?

I expected a non answer and you never disappointed.

To answer your question then no I don't believe £63BN is enough, as evidenced by GERs as public spending was £75.3BN.

That leaves a gap.

The plan for an independent Scotland is still being formed. Things have changed from 2014. You know that though.

So, you're happy for Scotland to supposedly spend £3.3 billion on defence?

[James310]

And somehow you know the make up of the Scottish Parliament in the future?

I am dealing in facts, the fact is at the moment the plan is to use the pound. That's agreed government policy.

[Moulin Yarns]

I am dealing in facts, the fact is at the moment the plan is to use the pound. That's agreed government policy.

And governments change, so the government at the time of independence may have a different way forward. Even a Ruth Davidson government will have to have a plan. 😉

[James310]

The plan for an independent Scotland is still being formed. Things have changed from 2014. You know that though.

So, you're happy for Scotland to supposedly spend £3.3 billion on defence?

Not particularly, savings could definitely be made there. Not £12BN though, and not enough to cover the loss of the block grant on top of that. Even a couple of billion still leaves a big gap.

There is a plan though of course, it's as I quoted earlier. Reduce public spending to reduce the deficit.

"To reduce the 5.9% deficit, the Commission proposes that total public expenditure (excluding debt interest) should increase by 1% less per year than GDP for the first decade of independence. With assumed real GDP growth of 1.5% a year, that means holding down real growth in spending on public services and benefits to 0.5% a year.

Such an approach would see spending on public services and benefits fall by about 4% of GDP over that decade. Add on the growing amount the Scottish government would have to spend on servicing its increasing post-independence debt, and overall public spending and hence the deficit would fall by 3% of GDP. Together with some assumed but unspecified efficiency savings (0.3% of GDP), that brings the forecast deficit down to 2.6% of GDP one decade after Scottish independence"

[Ozyhibby]

It was decided at the SNP conference. Keep up.

There are conferences every year, maybe it will change? One thing is for sure, we will have a currency.


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[Andy Bee]

How anyone can support a system whereby one nation collects the majority of taxes of another nation, hands some of them back in the form of a block grant then tells them they've spent the rest on erm...things, without any detailed accounts, it's beyond belief.

That's like me loaning my mate Shug £50, asking James here to collect it for me and him handing me back £20, when asked where the rest is the explanation is "I spent it on things you needed but I can't say what and I can't tell you how much each thing was oh and btw you're due me another £60"

[Callum_62]

. https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190822/4440e1c0781d271002667e35a082cef0.jpg

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[Hibbyradge]

The inability of any of the protagonists on this thread to concede even the smallest point has made it a total car crash.

Difficult questions always go unanswered which either means to me as a looker on, that the questioner has "scored a direct hit" or that the other person doesn't know.

The name calling and point scoring and whataboutery would see off many a playground in the childishness stakes.

I'm out of here. Have fun.

[Moulin Yarns]

How anyone can support a system whereby one nation collects the majority of taxes of another nation, hands some of them back in the form of a block grant then tells them they've spent the rest on erm...things, without any detailed accounts, it's beyond belief.

That's like me loaning my mate Shug £50, asking James here to collect it for me and him handing me back £20, when asked where the rest is the explanation is "I spent it on things you needed but I can't say what and I can't tell you how much each thing was oh and btw you're due me another £60"

Teaches you who to trust. 🤔

[Eaststand]

How anyone can support a system whereby one nation collects the majority of taxes of another nation, hands some of them back in the form of a block grant then tells them they've spent the rest on erm...things, without any detailed accounts, it's beyond belief.

That's like me loaning my mate Shug £50, asking James here to collect it for me and him handing me back £20, when asked where the rest is the explanation is "I spent it on things you needed but I can't say what and I can't tell you how much each thing was oh and btw you're due me another £60"

Andy I reckon you're just right for a job at Tory HQ as their chief financial advisor :-0

GGTTH

[Ozyhibby]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190822/b5ba75f994f5c525af2c9a70a3f7e637.jpg


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[CloudSquall]

Huge questions need to be asked on oil revenue, Norway with a similar sized oil field (or slightly smaller if I remember correctly) somehow brought in 26bn in 2018, while we brought in 1.6bn.

[Andy Bee]

A wee slip up by David Cameron on Norwegian oil at the end of this clip. :hmmm:


https://scontent-lht6-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t39.24130-6/64382509_113561936564629_2740084517453739715_n.mp4 ?_nc_cat=110&efg=eyJ2ZW5jb2RlX3RhZyI6Im9lcF9oZCJ9&_nc_oc=AQmAIdpJ06byW862zJVVzqKVWMwYQpkXTH85PBcddoR dml-uNzOltIUQjKOXD7qKo6Q&_nc_ht=scontent-lht6-1.xx&oh=790c0727d4c7b11f2c545ccea68ae365&oe=5DDCC386

[James310]

Better cancel that climate emergency then if oil is the answer again.

[Callum_62]

Better cancel that climate emergency then if oil is the answer again.Come on for godness sake. The question is why a similar sized country does so much better controlling there own resources compared to ours controlled by centralised Westminster

What happens with oil going forward is irrelevant

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[CloudSquall]

Better cancel that climate emergency then if oil is the answer again.

So what is the answer from the unionist side?

All I've heard is "pooling and sharing resources", apart from handouts from London what exactly is the strategy for Scotland?

[Ozyhibby]

So what is the answer from the unionist side?

All I've heard is "pooling and sharing resources", apart from handouts from London what exactly is the strategy for Scotland?

Keep us thinking we have to live on handouts forever. That’s it. There is zero economic strategy beyond that.


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[James310]

Come on for godness sake. The question is why a similar sized country does so much better controlling there own resources compared to ours controlled by centralised Westminster

What happens with oil going forward is irrelevant

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It's a valid question I agree, so why have the SNP not answered it? Why is it still an outstanding question. Why is the Growth Commission advocating public spending cuts? If it was this easy then page 1 of the Growth Commission would just have some facts and figures about Norway and how everything will be fine in Scotland if we just do the same as them, but they don't.

Maybe it's time some Indy supporters ask some SNP MPs and MSPs why their plan to Independence is so different to what is being talked about here. Instead of questioning me maybe start asking the people who are responsible for setting the plan the questions.

Going around in circles again so will let all the GER deniers get more and more angry, while achieving very little to actually move their cause forward.

[Andy Bee]

Better cancel that climate emergency then if oil is the answer again.

We produce the same if not slightly more oil than Norway, over 50% of their cars on the road are electric, funded by incentives from the Government Pension Fund Global, they're one of the world leaders in green energy and are slowly transitioning to carbon free due to the fund. They invest heavily all over the world in green projects to offset the oil production, we simply don't.

[CloudSquall]

It's a valid question I agree, so why have the SNP not answered it? Why is it still an outstanding question. Why is the Growth Commission advocating public spending cuts? If it was this easy then page 1 of the Growth Commission would just have some facts and figures about Norway and how everything will be fine in Scotland if we just do the same as them, but they don't.

Maybe it's time some Indy supporters ask some SNP MPs and MSPs why their plan to Independence is so different to what is being talked about here. Instead of questioning me maybe start asking the people who are responsible for setting the plan the questions.

Going around in circles again so will let all the GER deniers get more and more angry, while achieving very little to actually move their cause forward.

Firstly why would the SNP government answer the question when the revenues flow to London?

Secondly the SNP is not guaranteed to be leading Scotland following independence, if a party came along and said they would follow Norway's route in regards to oil revenue management for example I would vote for them. No one is holding the Growth Commission report as some sort of 10 commandments that must be followed upon independence.

The SNP's vision for independence isn't the only vision for independence, it isn't the be all and end all following independence, much like in every other country there are various views on the direction of the nation, you go to the polls and vote for the one you agree with.

[Ozyhibby]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190822/70b32d7c73329d2da4b145d79015ea0d.jpg


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[Jack]

I can only assume that as these aircraft carriers are being built in Scotland we are being allocated their full cost! IIRC they're coming in at just over £3bn.

[Saturday Boy]

I can only assume that as these aircraft carriers are being built in Scotland we are being allocated their full cost! IIRC they're coming in at just over £3bn.

And Trident.

[Kato]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190822/70b32d7c73329d2da4b145d79015ea0d.jpg



That's just laughable.

I don't care where the figures came from or who compiled them they are just a total crock.

[Saturday Boy]

That's just laughable.

I don't care where the figures came from or who compiled them they are just a total crock.

Interesting that they were published on the same day that ONS admitted that they had made errors in their immigration figures since the mid 2000s.

[RyeSloan]

I can only assume that as these aircraft carriers are being built in Scotland we are being allocated their full cost! IIRC they're coming in at just over £3bn.

Defence spending in GERS is apportioned by population so total defence spending x 9% or so.

[Ozyhibby]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190822/c85f23f9e0f984de46afc21ad783e661.jpg

How are we ever going to bring Scotland’s deficit down? Above are defence spending figures taken for GERS.

I think the unionists might just have overplayed their hand with this years GERS figures.


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[RyeSloan]

That's just laughable.

I don't care where the figures came from or who compiled them they are just a total crock.

Surely it depends on what it is being related to.

If Scotland’s notional deficit stays relatively constant (which I think is has roughly speaking for the last few years) but UK actual deficit has reduced substantially (which it has) then clearly the percentage figure that Scotland makes of the total goes up.

Not sure what he problem is as it’s all notional anyway [emoji12][emoji57]

[Andy Bee]

Defence spending in GERS is apportioned by population so total defence spending x 9% or so.

I didn't realise that so thanks for the clarification.

I was struggling to workout why the SG wouldn't disown these figures but actually if you take them at face value, realise it's as accurate as can be possible with the information available, don't get caught up in all the conspiracy theories and look past the headline making £bn deficits then you can actually start to see a lot of positives and a partial picture of what an independent Scotland could cost and the savings that could be made, for example the defence budget. Tax revenues are up, unemployment is at a record low and the deficit is reducing year on year, that's positive.

[James310]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190822/c85f23f9e0f984de46afc21ad783e661.jpg

How are we ever going to bring Scotland’s deficit down? Above are defence spending figures taken for GERS.

I think the unionists might just have overplayed their hand with this years GERS figures.


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You do realise that table is what Trump would call fake news and you are spreading it. It's a photoshopped image.

Scotland's GDP is £180.829BN, GERs apportioned a population share of UK defense spending to Scotland of £3.305BN, that's 1.8% of GDP.

Page 34 and 47 of GERs if you want to check.

You have just taken a made up table from Twitter and posted it here making out it's true.

You should really delete it, as we know you don't like made up and rigged numbers.

https://twitter.com/StewartMcDonald/status/1164647241711271936?s=19


SNP MP says it's not correct, not even close.

[RyeSloan]

I didn't realise that so thanks for the clarification.

I was struggling to workout why the SG wouldn't disown these figures but actually if you take them at face value, realise it's as accurate as can be possible with the information available, don't get caught up in all the conspiracy theories and look past the headline making £bn deficits then you can actually start to see a lot of positives and a partial picture of what an independent Scotland could cost and the savings that could be made, for example the defence budget. Tax revenues are up, unemployment is at a record low and the deficit is reducing year on year, that's positive.

Ach you won’t get far with sensible considerations like that [emoji6]

Just for perspective our friendly comparator Denmark spends over 25billion kroner on defence...approx £3bn.

[Fife-Hibee]

Gave me a laugh - https://twitter.com/i/status/1164217568506384384

[StevieC]

I’m not disputing the GERS figures, but below is a good analysis of how UK spending has forced a deficit upon Scotland that an Independent Scotland would not have accrued.

London may well be subsiding the deficit at the moment but it is clear that a rich Scotland subsidised it in the past.
Another clear indication that being tied to a Union that only cares about the South is dragging us down.

Pure and simple .. we need out!

http://www.businessforscotland.com/gers-an-annual-exercise-in-hiding-scotlands-true-wealth/

[Ozyhibby]

I’m not disputing the GERS figures, but below is a good analysis of how UK spending has forced a deficit upon Scotland that an Independent Scotland would not have accrued.

London may well be subsiding the deficit at the moment but it is clear that a rich Scotland subsidised it in the past.
Another clear indication that being tied to a Union that only cares about the South is dragging us down.

Pure and simple .. we need out!

http://www.businessforscotland.com/gers-an-annual-exercise-in-hiding-scotlands-true-wealth/

Good article.


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[Ozyhibby]

If, as reported the Norwegians are bringing £11bn in per year from oil taxes and we are only bringing in £1bn then surely if we just increase the tax take from the oil then that is our deficit wiped out.
And that strikes me as a very green thing to do as well.


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[James310]

If, as reported the Norwegians are bringing £11bn in per year from oil taxes and we are only bringing in £1bn then surely if we just increase the tax take from the oil then that is our deficit wiped out.
And that strikes me as a very green thing to do as well.


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Are you not advocating cutting corporation tax, as per Ireland? Now you want to increase taxes?

[Kato]

Next years GERS will be a giggle.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/boris-johnson-gets-lecture-from-macron-on-the-troubles-1.3995320

All the while, UK government borrowing surged in the first four months of the fiscal year. The budget deficit between April and July stood at £16 billion, 60 per cent more than the same period last year.

[Ozyhibby]

Are you not advocating cutting corporation tax, as per Ireland? Now you want to increase taxes?

You can tax oil without increasing corporation tax.


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[James310]

You can tax oil without increasing corporation tax.


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But you want to cut corporation tax, so you would cut that but put up another tax just for oil?

[lapsedhibee]

But you want to cut corporation tax, so you would cut that but put up another tax just for oil?

What, tax different things differently? The revolutionary ******* !

[Callum_62]

If, as reported the Norwegians are bringing £11bn in per year from oil taxes and we are only bringing in £1bn then surely if we just increase the tax take from the oil then that is our deficit wiped out.
And that strikes me as a very green thing to do as well.


Sent from my iPhone using TapatalkWhy do they bring in so much more tax on oil than the UK?

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[weecounty hibby]

But you want to cut corporation tax, so you would cut that but put up another tax just for oil?

You make out that you are a financial genius in this board at times, so I'm sure that with this one you are being deliberately awkward. You can decrease taxes in some areas i.e. corporation tax that will increase benefits in other areas. Potentially less corporation tax means more investment in Scotland means more jobs in Scotland means more income tax paid in Scotland, means less benefits paid out in Scotland. I am by no means as clever as you but even I can see that. Taxes can be amended both up and down to suit the situations.
Do you agree that the oil revenue in this country has been completely mismanaged by successive UK governments?

[CloudSquall]

Why do they bring in so much more tax on oil than the UK?

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Equinor ASA -Norwegian state owned oil company.

[James310]

You make out that you are a financial genius in this board at times, so I'm sure that with this one you are being deliberately awkward. You can decrease taxes in some areas i.e. corporation tax that will increase benefits in other areas. Potentially less corporation tax means more investment in Scotland means more jobs in Scotland means more income tax paid in Scotland, means less benefits paid out in Scotland. I am by no means as clever as you but even I can see that. Taxes can be amended both up and down to suit the situations.
Do you agree that the oil revenue in this country has been completely mismanaged by successive UK governments?

I guess I am just after some details. Like if we do A, B and C then it will raise revenues of £X. The deficit (if it exists) is £Y so X minus Y is equal to Z. It's all well and good and good to say we can do this and wipe out the deficit, but that's just a soundbyte without any substance.

I also question why all they ideas put forward here like cut taxes, increase taxes, be like Norway or Ireland etc never make it into any Government policy.

There is of course government policy to reduce the deficit but nobody wants to talk about that? Why is that?

Yes, the oil money has been mismanaged over the years. I am sure if they could go back 40 years and know what they know now it would be different, but that's like a lot of things.

[Ozyhibby]

I guess I am just after some details. Like if we do A, B and C then it will raise revenues of £X. The deficit (if it exists) is £Y so X minus Y is equal to Z. It's all well and good and good to say we can do this and wipe out the deficit, but that's just a soundbyte without any substance.

I also question why all they ideas put forward here like cut taxes, increase taxes, be like Norway or Ireland etc never make it into any Government policy.

There is of course government policy to reduce the deficit but nobody wants to talk about that? Why is that?

Yes, the oil money has been mismanaged over the years. I am sure if they could go back 40 years and know what they know now it would be different, but that's like a lot of things.

The situation in London is different from Scotland. It’s different from Wales, Northern Ireland and parts of the north of England as well. But when government are setting tax policy, which part of the uk are they thinking off?
When they recently changed tax policies to stop the property market overheating, were they thinking about the London property market or the Welsh property market? Never the less, the people working in the welsh property industry had to deal with the tax changes anyway.
Tax policy in the uk is all about what’s good for London.


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[The Modfather]

I guess I am just after some details. Like if we do A, B and C then it will raise revenues of £X. The deficit (if it exists) is £Y so X minus Y is equal to Z. It's all well and good and good to say we can do this and wipe out the deficit, but that's just a soundbyte without any substance.

I also question why all they ideas put forward here like cut taxes, increase taxes, be like Norway or Ireland etc never make it into any Government policy.

There is of course government policy to reduce the deficit but nobody wants to talk about that? Why is that?

Yes, the oil money has been mismanaged over the years. I am sure if they could go back 40 years and know what they know now it would be different, but that's like a lot of things.

Would you favour, or certainly be more open to the idea, of independence in the result of a no deal Brexit?

[James310]

Would you favour, or certainly be more open to the idea, of independence in the result of a no deal Brexit?

You never know, I would say it's unlikely but it would all depend on how a no deal Brexit went. I will think of my family first in all circumstances, if I think it's best for them then who knows what is possible. There would need to be a change in tone though from the SNP, more honesty on the economic case for a start.

[The Modfather]

You never know, I would say it's unlikely but it would all depend on how a no deal Brexit went. I will think of my family first in all circumstances, if I think it's best for them then who knows what is possible. There would need to be a change in tone though from the SNP, more honesty on the economic case for a start.

A fair answer. Although the the real debate about the economy and what kind of country we want to be won’t start until after the vote when all parties have to adapt and put forward their vision going forward. So I don’t place too much stead in the SNP’s vision as of today as there’s so many moving parts that plotting a detailed path is futile. Which isn’t to say that the SNP’s current vision shouldn’t be held up to scrutiny.

[Jack]

I guess I am just after some details. Like if we do A, B and C then it will raise revenues of £X. The deficit (if it exists) is £Y so X minus Y is equal to Z. It's all well and good and good to say we can do this and wipe out the deficit, but that's just a soundbyte without any substance.

I also question why all they ideas put forward here like cut taxes, increase taxes, be like Norway or Ireland etc never make it into any Government policy.

There is of course government policy to reduce the deficit but nobody wants to talk about that? Why is that?

Yes, the oil money has been mismanaged over the years. I am sure if they could go back 40 years and know what they know now it would be different, but that's like a lot of things.

You're not after details at all because you know as well as the rest of us it's all supposition on here, nobody knows.

One thing that does look certain though is that Westminster, responsible for oil fields of a similar size to those under Norwegian jurisdiction, has squandered billions either spending it on who knows what or not managing it in a similar fashion for the country's benefit.

[James310]

You're not after details at all because you know as well as the rest of us it's all supposition on here, nobody knows.

One thing that does look certain though is that Westminster, responsible for oil fields of a similar size to those under Norwegian jurisdiction, has squandered billions either spending it on who knows what or not managing it in a similar fashion for the country's benefit.

If nobody knows why does the SNPs Growth Commission say public spending will be capped at 1% less than GDP, with GDP growth assumed to be 1.5%. We know today that GDP is £180BN so we can do some of the maths. There is some detail to get us started, but I don't think anyone wants to talk about that for some reason.

Also I don't get all this the SNP might not be in power if we get Independence, that's nonsense and they will be in power for the very least the first term of a new Parliament, probably longer. People will have voted for their 'vision' so they will be expected to implement that.

If you want to join the EU you need to show you have a credible plan for reducing the deficit (if it exists, some people obviously still don't believe it does) and the EU class anything over 3% as excessive. Croatia joined with a deficit of 5.6% because it had an agreed deficit reduction plan in place. We will need the same. So on the one hand we need to reduce the deficit but on the other we will have huge set up costs for setting up a new countries infrastructure. To say things like oil will cover us, or reduce taxes and we will have the likes of Apple and Facebook moving here (bankrupting Ireland) is supposition, it's just words.

I can't remember which poster said he would like to see a manifesto based on a business plan, but that seems like a sensible approach.

[The Modfather]

If nobody knows why does the SNPs Growth Commission say public spending will be capped at 1% less than GDP, with GDP growth assumed to be 1.5%. We know today that GDP is £180BN so we can do some of the maths. There is some detail to get us started, but I don't think anyone wants to talk about that for some reason.

Also I don't get all this the SNP might not be in power if we get Independence, that's nonsense and they will be in power for the very least the first term of a new Parliament, probably longer. People will have voted for their 'vision' so they will be expected to implement that.

If you want to join the EU you need to show you have a credible plan for reducing the deficit (if it exists, some people obviously still don't believe it does) and the EU class anything over 3% as excessive. Croatia joined with a deficit of 5.6% because it had an agreed deficit reduction plan in place. We will need the same. So on the one hand we need to reduce the deficit but on the other we will have huge set up costs for setting up a new countries infrastructure. To say things like oil will cover us, or reduce taxes and we will have the likes of Apple and Facebook moving here (bankrupting Ireland) is supposition, it's just words.

I can't remember which poster said he would like to see a manifesto based on a business plan, but that seems like a sensible approach.

What are the huge set up costs and how much of that will be offset by our share of the existing infrastructure?

[Callum_62]

It's sorta weird to me. The whole idea that Scotland couldn't become independent and be some basket case 3rd world country.

The idea that somehow being in a political union with England is the only way our country can be mainited on life support is surely parody?

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[Ozyhibby]

It's sorta weird to me. The whole idea that Scotland couldn't become independent and be some basket case 3rd world country.

The idea that somehow being in a political union with England is the only way our country can be mainited on life support is surely parody?

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It’s nice that we are looked after so well by rUK. It would be quite scary doing all that grown up stuff alone. [emoji23]


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[James310]

What are the huge set up costs and how much of that will be offset by our share of the existing infrastructure?

Is that not up to the SNP and supporters of Independence to answer? I know it's not £200M though that was in the White Paper. The fact you or I don't know means we guess or in some cases make it up, is that good enough?

[James310]

It’s nice that we are looked after so well by rUK. It would be quite scary doing all that grown up stuff alone. [emoji23]


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I don't know anyone that says Scotland could not be independent, of course it could. It's you and a few others that suggest others seem to think it never could. Based on the plans put forward the majority of Scots rejected the proposal and said no, and apart from one poll recently the majority continue to reject it.

If you think it's because people think it's too scary and grown up then you are totally misreading the other side and their concerns and will never win them over, crack on though.

[The Modfather]

Is that not up to the SNP and supporters of Independence to answer? I know it's not £200M though that was in the White Paper. The fact you or I don't know means we guess or in some cases make it up, is that good enough?

You were the one that referenced “huge set up costs”. You’re now saying you don’t know how much they are and that it’s not for you to say anyway. Throwing mud and seeing what sticks isn’t an approach that does you, or anyone else using that approach, any favours IMO.

[James310]

You were the one that referenced “huge set up costs”. You’re now saying you don’t know how much they are and that it’s not for you to say anyway. Throwing mud and seeing what sticks isn’t an approach that does you, or anyone else using that approach, any favours IMO.

So if not huge what are they? New agencies required to be set up to replicate UK agencies, new financial regulation bodies to be set up, a central bank that requires currency reserves and so on.

It would be great if we had that level of detail to make informed decisions.

It's not for me to say, it's up to the people proposing the changes to say.

[The Modfather]

So if not huge what are they? New agencies required to be set up to replicate UK agencies, new financial regulation bodies to be set up, a central bank that requires currency reserves and so on.

It would be great if we had that level of detail to make informed decisions.

It's not for me to say, it's up to the people proposing the changes to say.

Why say anything at all then? There’s no details available so you won’t find me saying the set up costs are either tiny or huge, so as to suit my own agenda. That’s what I called you out on.

[Ozyhibby]

So if not huge what are they? New agencies required to be set up to replicate UK agencies, new financial regulation bodies to be set up, a central bank that requires currency reserves and so on.

It would be great if we had that level of detail to make informed decisions.

It's not for me to say, it's up to the people proposing the changes to say.

The central bank will be able to use its 10% share of the Bank of England’s currency reserves. That should be enough.


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