Scottish Independence

[Tornadoes70]

Well, if the UK leaves the EU (Jeremy Corbyn's wet dream), an independent Scotland in the EU would have guaranteed trade deals with the rest of the world.

Unlike the UK, which has only just managed to negotiate a prickly trade deal with Craggy Island (or somewhere similar).

'An independent Scotland in the EU'

How does that work?

How would it guarantee Scottish pensions, Scottish jobs, Scottish benefits, a paid for Scottish NHS free presctiptions, an open border with the rest of what was the UK etc etc etc among a myriad of differing open ended questions?

Admit it you've not really got the first clue?

[Fife-Hibee]

'An independent Scotland in the EU'

How does that work?

How would it guarantee Scottish pensions, Scottish jobs, Scottish benefits, a paid for Scottish NHS free presctiptions, an open border with the rest of what was the UK etc etc etc among a myriad of differing open ended questions?

Admit it you've not really got the first clue?

How would it not? You think pensions, jobs, benefits, the NHS, prescriptions and everything else would just go flying out of the window just because we took full control over our own tax revenues?

Where is your basis for that? How do other 'independent' members of the EU manage through the apparent hardship that would suddenly befall Scotland?

[Tornadoes70]

How would it not? You think pensions, jobs, benefits, the NHS, prescriptions and everything else would just go flying out of the window just because we took full control over our own tax revenues?

Where is your basis for that? How do other 'independent' members of the EU manage through the apparent hardship that would suddenly befall Scotland?

Yourself and other bold nationalists are the ones attempting to persuade the 55 per cent who voted No just a few years ago to change their minds.

Please tell us how we'd be better off from separating from our UK nearest island neighbours England Wales and NI and possibly closing the border to either becoming isolated or to becoming partners with the more distant EU?

What exactly are you arguing?

[1875godsgift]

'An independent Scotland in the EU'

How does that work?

How would it guarantee Scottish pensions, Scottish jobs, Scottish benefits, a paid for Scottish NHS free presctiptions, an open border with the rest of what was the UK etc etc etc among a myriad of differing open ended questions?

Admit it you've not really got the first clue?

It's not my job to have the first clue pal, but if you're prepared to pay me a whacking great consultancy fee I'll get onto it first thing in the morning.

How would you guarantee the same things in the case of a no-deal Brexit? Or a soft Brexit? Or a global financial crisis? Or a myriad of differing open-ended scenarios?

Admit it, you don't have a clue, do you?

Worryingly, for you, is that you sound very much like James3110 (or whatever he's called).

Scared of the day you never saw, as my mum used to say.

[Fife-Hibee]

Yourself and other bold nationalists are the ones attempting to persuade the 55 per cent who voted No just a few years ago to change their minds.

Please tell us how we'd be better off from separating from our UK nearest island neighbours England Wales and NI and possibly closing the border to either becoming isolated or to becoming partners with the more distant EU?

What exactly are you arguing?

Just last month, the UK Government increased the UK deficit by another £7,000,000,000 (billion). The GBP is now 1.11 to the euro and 1.25 to the US dollar. That's a 27% slump in just 5 years and that's just from the worry of the UK leaving the EU. Imagine the damage once it actually leaves.

Rather than me arguing how we'd be better off as an independent nation within the EU. How about you tell me how we won't be worse off by remaining in the UK?

[Ozyhibby]

Just last month, the UK Government increased the UK deficit by another £7,000,000,000 (billion). The GBP is now 1.11 to the euro and 1.25 to the US dollar. That's a 27% slump in just 5 years and that's just from the worry of the UK leaving the EU. Imagine the damage once it actually leaves.

Rather than me arguing how we'd be better off as an independent nation within the EU. How about you tell me how we won't be worse off by remaining in the UK?

That’s the difference between now and 2014. The status quo is no longer an option.


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[James310]

It's not my job to have the first clue pal, but if you're prepared to pay me a whacking great consultancy fee I'll get onto it first thing in the morning.

How would you guarantee the same things in the case of a no-deal Brexit? Or a soft Brexit? Or a global financial crisis? Or a myriad of differing open-ended scenarios?

Admit it, you don't have a clue, do you?

Worryingly, for you, is that you sound very much like James3110 (or whatever he's called).

Scared of the day you never saw, as my mum used to say.

And you sound like all the rest, unable to answer the tough questions. Deflect back with but what about this, what about that and so on.

What's the economic case for Independence? It might not be your job, but it's the job of the Indy movement to persuade and convince the people of Scotland that separation is a good thing.

[The Modfather]

And you sound like all the rest, unable to answer the tough questions. Deflect back with but what about this, what about that and so on.

What's the economic case for Independence? It might not be your job, but it's the job of the Indy movement to persuade and convince the people of Scotland that separation is a good thing.

Surely one factor of the economic case is to break away from the sinking ship that is a UK leaving the EU? Economically the UK is worse of than in 2014, and you only have to look at the projections for when Brexit happens never mind if it’s actually a no deal. I can’t see anything but austerity in the UK for a decent length of time.

An independent Scotland, run by whatever party and whatever direction the people choose, might be more of a success it might not. What we are currently watching is a UK government in self destruct mode. It’s difficult not to wonder how any other direction could be as bad as what’s happening now IMO.

[James310]

Surely one factor of the economic case is to break away from the sinking ship that is a UK leaving the EU? Economically the UK is worse of than in 2014, and you only have to look at the projections for when Brexit happens never mind if it’s actually a no deal. I can’t see anything but austerity in the UK for a decent length of time.

An independent Scotland, run by whatever party and whatever direction the people choose, might be more of a success it might not. What we are currently watching is a UK government in self destruct mode. It’s difficult not to wonder how any other direction could be as bad as what’s happening now IMO.

If it's a no deal Brexit then you know what I agree, I think a no deal Brexit will very likely lead to Scottish Independence.

But I don't think we will leave with no deal, we will leave with a deal or we won't leave at all. In that case I think people lives will continue as normal, the majority of people will continue exactly as they have done before.

You talk about Austerity but look at the Growth Commission report, if that is the lifeboat for the sinking ship then that's austerity on speed.

The article below is from a left wing pro Indy group, they absolutely rip it apart.

"No-one including George Osborne actually says they're going to impose austerity. What they say is that there is going to be a period of fiscal tightening in pursuit of non-negotiable deficit reduction imposed with a rigorous public debt cap.

That is exactly what the Growth Commission says; the dictionary definition of austerity. But worse, the Commission report contains a kind of 'double-lock' austerity"

https://www.commonspace.scot/articles/12825/robin-mcalpine-we-need-swift-end-growth-commission-madness-and-find-some-self-respect


Most won't read it as it makes for some really uncomfortable reading, but it explains things well for such a complicated subject. It's relevant as your last comment about how it can be as bad as it is now, I would urge you to read the article and then tell us if you still feel the same. I suspect you will, but would be good to understand why.

[CloudSquall]

How would we balance our books as per public services expenditure etc v income just to illustrate one very simple economic fact?

Like every other country on the planet, you make policy decisions on expenditure and taxation in order to maximise revenue.

What is the plan within the UK? Because all I hear is "fiscal transfer" which is a way to say "we're subsidised by England" while trying to maintain a hint of self respect.

If there was some grand plan to make Scotland an economic powerhouse in the union I'd be all for it, but the "we get money from England" argument is beyond pathetic.

[Moulin Yarns]

The answer to the OP is that Scotland would never be independent. Whether it remains within the UK alongside our nearest island neighbours or rejects them and instead sides with our further more distant ones within the EU is of course the pertinent one. We'd be beholden to someone or something. The question should of course ultimately be whether or not we should be in partnership within or outwith our UK and join an entirely different entity the more distant EU for example of which would of course very probably be far less generous than our UK is?

That's the real choice, not whether we in Scotland would be independent because that is not the reality as we'd be forced to join the EU and be held to its rules whether we liked them or not as a consequence thereof no matter the bs the separatists might fantasise about on here.

What if you live in shetland? Bergen is 80 miles closer than Edinburgh.

[The Modfather]

If it's a no deal Brexit then you know what I agree, I think a no deal Brexit will very likely lead to Scottish Independence.

But I don't think we will leave with no deal, we will leave with a deal or we won't leave at all. In that case I think people lives will continue as normal, the majority of people will continue exactly as they have done before.

You talk about Austerity but look at the Growth Commission report, if that is the lifeboat for the sinking ship then that's austerity on speed.

The article below is from a left wing pro Indy group, they absolutely rip it apart.

"No-one including George Osborne actually says they're going to impose austerity. What they say is that there is going to be a period of fiscal tightening in pursuit of non-negotiable deficit reduction imposed with a rigorous public debt cap.

That is exactly what the Growth Commission says; the dictionary definition of austerity. But worse, the Commission report contains a kind of 'double-lock' austerity"

https://www.commonspace.scot/articles/12825/robin-mcalpine-we-need-swift-end-growth-commission-madness-and-find-some-self-respect


Most won't read it as it makes for some really uncomfortable reading, but it explains things well for such a complicated subject. It's relevant as your last comment about how it can be as bad as it is now, I would urge you to read the article and then tell us if you still feel the same. I suspect you will, but would be good to understand why.

Part of me thinks that not leaving, while averting the economic suicide, could cause as many long term issues as leaving. Those who wanted to leave will feel betrayed and who knows quite how cretins like Farage will stoke the fires of discontent and I worry that we will lurch further to the right to appease the likes of him. Whatever outcome it’s some mess we’ve managed to get ourselves into.

I did read the link, and agreed with much of what is said in terms of pegging to the pound unofficially. There are plenty of questions that require grown up debate and remain unanswered for me. Currency is still the big one. However, what I would say is that pegging to the pound, and some of the associated risks, is just one option. The way I look at it is that the SNP have the difficult job of having a to stick their head above the parapet in terms of putting some meat on the bones in something like the growth commission report as they are the chief driver of independence (but not one and the same as independence itself). I do think pulling together a detailed proposal now, like the growth commission report, is a little pointless as there’s so many moving parts and things that can only be fleshed out after negotiations with the UK.

I do of course pay attention to what the SNP are currently proposing and definitely think it should be challenged and spark debate. However the growth commission report is not anything set in stone and unrealistic to expect it to be. It is also just one parties direction, once we’re independent i’d genuinely want to see what vision a truly independent Tories and Labour etc came up with and those visions would have the same chance of getting my vote.

[James310]

Part of me thinks that not leaving, while averting the economic suicide, could cause as many long term issues as leaving. Those who wanted to leave will feel betrayed and who knows quite how cretins like Farage will stoke the fires of discontent and I worry that we will lurch further to the right to appease the likes of him. Whatever outcome it’s some mess we’ve managed to get ourselves into.

I did read the link, and agreed with much of what is said in terms of pegging to the pound unofficially. There are plenty of questions that require grown up debate and remain unanswered for me. Currency is still the big one. However, what I would say is that pegging to the pound, and some of the associated risks, is just one option. The way I look at it is that the SNP have the difficult job of having a to stick their head above the parapet in terms of putting some meat on the bones in terms of something like the growth commission report as they are the chief driver of independence. I do think pulling together a detailed proposal now, like the growth commission report, is a little pointless as there’s so many moving parts and things that can only be fleshed out after negotiations with the UK.

I do of course pay attention to what the SNP are currently proposing and definitely think it should be challenged and spark debate. However the growth commission report is not anything set in stone and unrealistic to expect it to be. It is also just one parties direction, once we’re independent i’d genuinely want to see what vision a truly independent Tories and Labour etc came up with and those visions would have the same chance of getting my vote.

That's a very fair reply and appreciate you reading the article, most on here would ignore it or dismiss it as nonsense.

It's the SNPs job to put their head above the parapet as they are the ones advocating significant change, they are the only serious party offering Independence, and they need something to sell other than the Indy is good cause it gets rid of the English Tories and Westminster. People need a vision to buy into to and that vision is the Growth Commission, like the White Paper was before it.

That's what the SNP are offering people, you vote for Indy and as it stands today then we go down that road. That was all agreed at the recent SNP conference.

If we vote for Indy then the SNP will be in Government for definitely the first term of parliament and likely the second, so it will be their plan and policies we follow.

We better not get into currency debate again, but interesting you say that remains one of the unanswered questions. To many on here they don't care what the currency is as long as they get Independence, but I sense you can see how important it is and the downstream implications it has on so many things.

[Ozyhibby]

Not leaving the EU altogether will make UK politics very ugly for quite some time. That could lead to an Indy Scotland.
The public are very well aware about the rules of trade within the EU now so all the chat of border posts and companies moving south from the last indyref won’t work so well.
So long as a deal is struck and we intend to be EU members then there will be no uncertainty about our relationship with rUK.
A no deal brexit brings problems with border and it will depend on the level of anger with Westminster if a yes vote wins.


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[Fife-Hibee]

Always good to see "Scotland's public expenditure" going to good use. - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49048823

:rolleyes:
.

[Moulin Yarns]

Always good to see "Scotland's public expenditure" going to good use. - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49048823

:rolleyes:
.

Scottish businesses won £6.6m worth of contracts and....

https://www.51m.co.uk/scots-to-get-extra-5bn-for-hs2-english-taxpayers-will-be-forced-to-pay-compensation-even-though-journey-times-to-london-will-be-half-an-hour-shorter/

[Fife-Hibee]

Scottish businesses won £6.6m worth of contracts and....

https://www.51m.co.uk/scots-to-get-extra-5bn-for-hs2-english-taxpayers-will-be-forced-to-pay-compensation-even-though-journey-times-to-london-will-be-half-an-hour-shorter/

I'll believe the compensation thing when we actually see it. :hilarious

It'll be 5bn over 100 years or something.

[RyeSloan]

Always good to see "Scotland's public expenditure" going to good use. - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49048823

:rolleyes:
.

Just so we are clear can you answer the following two questions:

How much of HS2 cost is apportioned to Scotland’s public expenditure?

How much will Scotland receive in uplift adjustments to the block grant via Barnett for HS2 spending?

[Just Alf]

Just so we are clear can you answer the following two questions:

How much of HS2 cost is apportioned to Scotland’s public expenditure?

How much will Scotland receive in uplift adjustments to the block grant via Barnett for HS2 spending?Around 9% of the total.

And not sure...
National (as in UK wide) infrastructure projects are reserved items and don't have a direct correlation on Barnett so in basic terms, nothing. If its successful though and the government ends up increasing/improving services etc (more health care etc) for the expanding population then there would be a linked Barnett increase.



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[RyeSloan]

Around 9% of the total.

And not sure...
National (as in UK wide) infrastructure projects are reserved items and don't have a direct correlation on Barnett so in basic terms, nothing. If its successful though and the government ends up increasing/improving services etc (more health care etc) for the expanding population then there would be a linked Barnett increase.



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Thanks for the reply but I wasn’t asking you. [emoji6]

As it is I don’t believe your response is accurate.

But to be fair you are not the one that has repeatedly posted about the matter so not too fussed on that, I do however wish for Fife to give an answer as clearly he must have the info to hand to be able to post repeatedly what he has re Scotland’s finances.....

[Just Alf]

Thanks for the reply but I wasn’t asking you. [emoji6]

As it is I don’t believe your response is accurate.

But to be fair you are not the one that has repeatedly posted about the matter so not too fussed on that, I do however wish for Fife to give an answer as clearly he must have the info to hand to be able to post repeatedly what he has re Scotland’s finances.....:greengrin


FWIW it's exactly how it works. Same for defence budget, embassies etc etc.


It's NOT all black and white tho. Take the Queensferry Crossing, Westminster allow the Scottish government to draw down a certain amount each year for local prioritisation of national infrastructure projects, basically having a bit of control over 'the deficit'. (other UK areas have similar but on a much reduced scale and with more UK Gov oversight)

At the time the SNP crowed about how they delivered and that Labour, while in power had 'handed the money back each year', when in actual fact all that labour did was not take anything from the pot so didn't add to the burgeoning UK deficit.

Flip side of that of course is that an iScotland would have 100% control of the deficit and all things being equal maybe Labour could be trusted to be financially a bit more prudent than the SNP if in government!



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[James310]

So what's going on with AUOB movement. My Twitter feed has some tweets about a fall out of the organisers with one of them suspended and the other one accusing the other of pocketing the bucket collection money to give to his partners kids!

Where there is money to be made it unfortunately always ends in acrimony.

[Fife-Hibee]

As it is I don’t believe your response is accurate.

Believe what you like, but it is accurate. Scotland's "public expenditure" doesn't just include spending in Scotland.

[Sylar]

I can't be arsed scrolling back through the last few pages, but is it safe to say the earlier lie about "British water" hasn't been addressed by Fife yet?

He seems to be far too busy making up new ones it appears.

[RyeSloan]

Believe what you like, but it is accurate. Scotland's "public expenditure" doesn't just include spending in Scotland.

I didn’t say it did.

I asked you two specific questions. Care to answer?

[Fife-Hibee]

https://i.ibb.co/VW3Y2zC/hahahahaha.png

FFS! :faf:

[Ozyhibby]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190725/4c01bad73edc8a5d3cd9a4f96d051d88.jpg
From a Tory MP!


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[Tomsk]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190725/4c01bad73edc8a5d3cd9a4f96d051d88.jpg
From a Tory MP!


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Tory with a small T. He actually serves as an independent these days.

Although, looks like a duck, etc. :wink:

[Hibernia&Alba]

If and when the second referendum arrives, I will be switching my vote to Yes. In fact, it can't come soon enough. Brexit, especially its no deal variant, had already made up my mind; now, the most right wing government in history, led by a loathsome compulsive liar and charlatan, has put the tin hat on it. I feel so alienated from the direction the UK is taking.

As an internationalist, I voted No in the previous referendum because we were told that staying in the UK was the only guarantee that Scotland would remain in the EU. Of course that has now disappeared and the Conservative Party has become a de facto English Nationalist (of the right wing variety) party, dancing to the tune of Nigel Farage and his fellow loonies. I also voted No because I didn't want the rest of the UK to be doomed to almost permanent Tory rule but hoped Scotland's progressive voting block at Westminster could facilitate a better future for all 65 million of us. However, I now feel I must accept that that is dead, as there is an ever widening gap in outlook between England and Scotland. An unpleasant populism seems to be flourishing down south.

Brexit will be damaging; a no deal Brexit would be catastrophic, as Johnson and his hard right government will seek to turn the UK into a tax haven for the super rich whilst ripping up EU protections for workers. We will move towards the American model at full speed. I can't acquiesce in this suicidal strategy.

[southsider]

Would need just 6 people out of every 100 to be scared enough of Brexit to change their minds. Polls show that may be the case. We and England are pulling in different directions . Most English Tories now favour Brexit before our Special Union.

[lapsedhibee]

Would need just 6 people out of every 100 to be scared enough of Brexit to change their minds. Polls show that may be the case. We and England are pulling in different directions . Most English Tories now favour Brexit before our Special Union.

:tsk tsk: :nerd: Special is what England has with the US. What it has with us and the rest of the 'awesome foursome' :sick:is a precious union :rotflmao:

[heretoday]

If and when the second referendum arrives, I will be switching my vote to Yes. In fact, it can't come soon enough. Brexit, especially its no deal variant, had already made up my mind; now, the most right wing government in history, led by a loathsome compulsive liar and charlatan, has put the tin hat on it. I feel so alienated from the direction the UK is taking.

As an internationalist, I voted No in the previous referendum because we were told that staying in the UK was the only guarantee that Scotland would remain in the EU. Of course that has now disappeared and the Conservative Party has become a de facto English Nationalist (of the right wing variety) party, dancing to the tune of Nigel Farage and his fellow loonies. I also voted No because I didn't want the rest of the UK to be doomed to almost permanent Tory rule but hoped Scotland's progressive voting block at Westminster could facilitate a better future for all 65 million of us. However, I now feel I must accept that that is dead, as there is an ever widening gap in outlook between England and Scotland. An unpleasant populism seems to be flourishing down south.

Brexit will be damaging; a no deal Brexit would be catastrophic, as Johnson and his hard right government will seek to turn the UK into a tax haven for the super rich whilst ripping up EU protections for workers. We will move towards the American model at full speed. I can't acquiesce in this suicidal strategy.

Scotland had better make sure we're going to be accepted by the EU or we'll be Donald Ducked.

Jimmy Wigs! Get yer Jimmy Wigs here!

[Jack]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190725/4c01bad73edc8a5d3cd9a4f96d051d88.jpg
From a Tory MP!


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Ruth the Mooth and others itching with rage but they know with Borris in charge what the Scotch think doesn't matter a damn.

Whispers, apparently, and you'll just love the irony, the Scottish Branch of the Conservative and Unionist Party are considering splitting from their lords and masters in London and going it alone. Will there be a referendum among the Scotch Torys to decide?

You couldnae make it up!

[Hibbyradge]

Ruth the Mooth and others itching with rage but they know with Borris in charge what the Scotch think doesn't matter a damn.

Whispers, apparently, and you'll just love the irony, the Scottish Branch of the Conservative and Unionist Party are considering splitting from their lords and masters in London and going it alone. Will there be a referendum among the Scotch Torys to decide?

You couldnae make it up!

I always thought Tories preferred gin.

[Pretty Boy]

I would actually have a grudging respect for the Scottish Tories if they broke away and went it alone. It's something Labour should have done years ago.

[Ozyhibby]

I would actually have a grudging respect for the Scottish Tories if they broke away and went it alone. It's something Labour should have done years ago.

They both would have done so years ago but for the fact they would look ridiculous saying independence is right for them but not the population as a whole.


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[Fife-Hibee]

I would actually have a grudging respect for the Scottish Tories if they broke away and went it alone. It's something Labour should have done years ago.

I could never respect them under any circumstances now, they've gone too far beyond for that.

But I will say this. The "Scottish" Tories will never be truly independent from London. Even if one day they decide to start pretending that they are, just to fool ill informed morons. Much like the new "independent" BBC channel.

[CloudSquall]

I don't think they will split even if it would be the best decision for them.

When they had 13 MPs elected in the last election that was their time to show that they would stand up for Scotland. Ruth even said herself that they would be flying the flag for Scotland.

Instead they voted again and again with the government not giving one iota what the effects on Scotland were, while the DUP, with 10 MPs, bent the government over and extracted everything they could for Northern Ireland with an extra 1 billion pounds directed to NI.

And for Scotland? Sweet FA.

It's becoming cringeworthy beyond belief their constant "standing up for the union" tripe when the cabinet now couldn't give a hoot about the union beyond the cash extraction from the North Sea.

The way Ruth Davidson has got a free ride from the media in Scotland is shameful, she should be getting hammered for their record at Westminster and for how spineless her and Mundell are.

[southsider]

That’s the difference between now and 2014. The status quo is no longer an option.


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One of the major concerns was what we were going to do with our currency. Seems pretty straight forward now - we join the Euro. The Pound has been plunging against the Euro and 1-1 before the end of the year.

[Ozyhibby]

One of the major concerns was what we were going to do with our currency. Seems pretty straight forward now - we join the Euro. The Pound has been plunging against the Euro and 1-1 before the end of the year.

Euro would be fine by me. Seems to have stabilised and places like Ireland have recovered nicely.


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[Smartie]

The fortunes of the Scottish Conservative and Unionist party and the Scottish Labour Party have probably been about as good a case for independence as you can get.

Two institutions who have significant followings North of the border being totally hampered by being undermined by their London overlords who happen to have totally different priorities and wishes to them, other than come what may they must stay together.

[Ozyhibby]

https://t.co/MEhwBW6beM
Good article on seperatinge the Tories.


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[JeMeSouviens]

https://t.co/MEhwBW6beM
Good article on seperatinge the Tories.


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It's a bit all over the place in terms of NI history.


Just as it has in Scotland and Wales, devolution introduced new tensions and over time placed the alliance between the UUP and their mainland counterparts under strain. Marginalised on many issues due the breadth of Stormont’s powers, Northern Ireland began to feel like a place apart. The UUP, in turn, became gradually less willing to defend the decisions of Tory governments if they were unpopular at home.


The UUP took the Tory whip when there *was* devolution, ie. 1921-1972, not when there wasn't. It broke away in the huff over the Tory imposition of direct rule. The current devolution post-GFA didn't get going properly until 2000.

The DUP displaced the UUP by being more anti-Sinn Fein during a time when Labour were in power in WM. It had little to do with UUP/Tory tensions.

[JeMeSouviens]

It's an interesting thought though, that the precipitation of independence might be more likely to come from Unionists failing to work together than by Nationalists working in opposition to them.

Pretty much what happened in Czechoslovakia where the Slovaks and Czechs split despite all the main parties on both sides being in favour of a federation. They just couldn't agree on the terms.

[Mibbes Aye]

It's an interesting thought though, that the precipitation of independence might be more likely to come from Unionists failing to work together than by Nationalists working in opposition to them.

Pretty much what happened in Czechoslovakia where the Slovaks and Czechs split despite all the main parties on both sides being in favour of a federation. They just couldn't agree on the terms.

I spend quite a lot of time in the Czech Republic and the way things evolved is fascinating. Czechoslovakia only emerged at the end of World War One and it thrived as a democratic nation. Curiously, when the Germans occupied it in WW2 they split it into more or less the current arrangement.

You know my views on nationalism but putting all that aside I think for anyone interested, it is a fascinating history to look at dispassionately. The Czechs have a profoundly strong culture of intellectualism in political and social thought and the way thinking and existence has evolved, from the Austro-Hungarian empire, through the years between the World Wars, through the German occupation, the Soviet subjugation and finally the Velvet Revolution, is enthralling.

[Fife-Hibee]

I spend quite a lot of time in the Czech Republic and the way things evolved is fascinating. Czechoslovakia only emerged at the end of World War One and it thrived as a democratic nation. Curiously, when the Germans occupied it in WW2 they split it into more or less the current arrangement.

You know my views on nationalism but putting all that aside I think for anyone interested, it is a fascinating history to look at dispassionately. The Czechs have a profoundly strong culture of intellectualism in political and social thought and the way thinking and existence has evolved, from the Austro-Hungarian empire, through the years between the World Wars, through the German occupation, the Soviet subjugation and finally the Velvet Revolution, is enthralling.

In other words. Good on em Czeches, but still naw tae Scotland. :agree:

[Hibbyradge]

In other words. Good on em Czeches, but still naw tae Scotland. :agree:

:faf:

Is that really what you take from his post?

I suggest you work on your comprehension.

[Mibbes Aye]

:faf:

Is that really what you take from his post?

I suggest you work on your comprehension.

Oh to live in such times :greengrin

[Fife-Hibee]

https://i.ibb.co/vh1NwWc/sad.png

Can we please just go now?

[Slavers]

https://i.ibb.co/vh1NwWc/sad.png

Can we please just go now?

No!

[Fife-Hibee]

No!

Pretty please?

[Fife-Hibee]

Funny (well not really) reading over the first several pages of this thread from 2013 and people giving their reasons for not wanting to back independence. I wonder if they can still validate those reasons now, looking at the current political landscape?

[NORTHERNHIBBY]

Funny (well not really) reading over the first several pages of this thread from 2013 and people giving their reasons for not wanting to back independence. I wonder if they can still validate those reasons now, looking at the current political landscape?

That's an odd question is it not? Unless you are drilling to specifics, are you asking why opinions and assessments made against a political backdrop six years ago may not be relevant or cogent? This at a time when politics changes by the day never mind the life span of a four year term.

[marinello59]

That's an odd question is it not? Unless you are drilling to specifics, are you asking why opinions and assessments made against a political backdrop six years ago may not be relevant or cogent? This at a time when politics changes by the day never mind the life span of a four year term.

An excellent point. The reasons people had for voting the way they did back then were of course valid to them at the time. Those of us on the Yes side failed to make a convincing enough argument. If we merely assume that the change in political landscape will be enough to get us over the line next time then we will probably fall short again.

[weecounty hibby]

An excellent point. The reasons people had for voting the way they did back then were of course valid to them at the time. Those of us on the Yes side failed to make a convincing enough argument. If we merely assume that the change in political landscape will be enough to get us over the line next time then we will probably fall short again.

100% correct. Expecting enough people to change their minds due to Brexit and Johnson will lead to failure again. We on the yes side need to be able to defeat project fear with better arguments. There also needs to be a recognition by some, and we know who they are, that being abusive to no voters isn't going to help the cause. Good debate, the right arguments and the disaster that will be Brexit and Johnson need to all come together

[NORTHERNHIBBY]

I am a card carrying member of the Labour party. I voted no because of the Europe question. Was I wrong? Not then but yes now.Why not then? Well because the onus was not on the No campaign as much as it was on the Yes, to prove the case. I am well within my rights to say that the failings were on the Yes campaigns strategy to realise that it is not the converted who need to be preached to. Would I vote Yes now? One hundred percent. I don't understand why this isn't enough?

[weecounty hibby]

I am a card carrying member of the Labour party. I voted no because of the Europe question. Was I wrong? Not then but yes now.Why not then? Well because the onus was not on the No campaign as much as it was on the Yes, to prove the case. I am well within my rights to say that the failings were on the Yes campaigns strategy to realise that it is not the converted who need to be preached to. Would I vote Yes now? One hundred percent. I don't understand why this isn't enough?
Whether you are a member of Labour, Green, SNP or Monster Raving Looney Party is irrelevant to me and irrelevant how you voted in the past. I am just glad to see that your vote has moved to Yes. Hopefully many many more of your Labour comrades will see this as a sensible move and then create a strong Labour party in an Independent Scotland

[southsider]

I voted NO because of the Currency situation. Nobody in the YES camp seemed to have a valid explanation what was going to happen with it. The EURO which seemed on the verge of collapse has recovered and I would be happy to use it here. Would English people still come to Scotland if they had change their cash ? Perhaps businesses would accept payment in either as heading to 1-1 soon I think.

[weecounty hibby]

I voted NO because of the Currency situation. Nobody in the YES camp seemed to have a valid explanation what was going to happen with it. The EURO which seemed on the verge of collapse has recovered and I would be happy to use it here. Would English people still come to Scotland if they had change their cash ? Perhaps businesses would accept payment in either as heading to 1-1 soon I think.
It's a good point. I think last time round the currency issue could have been handled better but to be honest it wasn't one that bothered me. Next time as you say £ to Euro difference will be negligible. Changing currency has never stopped anyone going anywhere. Remember when you used to change to peseta, franc, deutchmark, lira etc.

[McD]

100% correct. Expecting enough people to change their minds due to Brexit and Johnson will lead to failure again. We on the yes side need to be able to defeat project fear with better arguments. There also needs to be a recognition by some, and we know who they are, that being abusive to no voters isn't going to help the cause. Good debate, the right arguments and the disaster that will be Brexit and Johnson need to all come together


Fantastic post :top marks

[NAE NOOKIE]

100% correct. Expecting enough people to change their minds due to Brexit and Johnson will lead to failure again. We on the yes side need to be able to defeat project fear with better arguments. There also needs to be a recognition by some, and we know who they are, that being abusive to no voters isn't going to help the cause. Good debate, the right arguments and the disaster that will be Brexit and Johnson need to all come together

I read an interesting article published in the Wall Street journal in which the commentator pointed out that any so called favourable trade deal we might want to negotiate with the USA would from their POV be dependant on the UK not striking a similar or better deal with China. I hadn't heard that mentioned anywhere .. if its true its indicative of the weakness the UK will subject itself to by not being part of a huge trading block like the EU.

As for the currency issue. It was never a problem for me in 2014 and when you look at the relative strength of the Euro against the pound since 2016 its even less of an issue now. Also, when you look at the way UK politics works now with xenophobia and personality politics ruling the roost I genuinely think we would win over half of the no side vis a vis currency so long as we promised still to have a picture of the queen on the Groat or whatever we ended up using until we joined the Euro if that's the plan.

I firmly believe that, because I'm reasonably convinced that back in 2014 there was a huge number of voters who genuinely thought the currency debate was about whose picture would be on the money rather than its actual strengths or weaknesses as a tradable asset.

[weecounty hibby]

I read an interesting article published in the Wall Street journal in which the commentator pointed out that any so called favourable trade deal we might want to negotiate with the USA would from their POV be dependant on the UK not striking a similar or better deal with China. I hadn't heard that mentioned anywhere .. if its true its indicative of the weakness the UK will subject itself to by not being part of a huge trading block like the EU.

As for the currency issue. It was never a problem for me in 2014 and when you look at the relative strength of the Euro against the pound since 2016 its even less of an issue now. Also, when you look at the way UK politics works now with xenophobia and personality politics ruling the roost I genuinely think we would win over half of the no side vis a vis currency so long as we promised still to have a picture of the queen on the Groat or whatever we ended up using until we joined the Euro if that's the plan.

I firmly believe that, because I'm reasonably convinced that back in 2014 there was a huge number of voters who genuinely thought the currency debate was about whose picture would be on the money rather than its actual strengths or weaknesses as a tradable asset.
Yeah, good post. Any "good" deal the UK gets from the US will undoubtedly be detrimental to deals with other trading blocks. Trump's rallying call is "make America great again" not let's help the UK out if the mess they've made.
I am a supporter of independence but not necessarily a republican. I would keep Queenie as head of state and on coins etc. If it's good enough for Australia, NZ and Canada then it would be fine by me.

[JeMeSouviens]

I am a card carrying member of the Labour party. I voted no because of the Europe question. Was I wrong? Not then but yes now.Why not then? Well because the onus was not on the No campaign as much as it was on the Yes, to prove the case. I am well within my rights to say that the failings were on the Yes campaigns strategy to realise that it is not the converted who need to be preached to. Would I vote Yes now? One hundred percent. I don't understand why this isn't enough?

It’s enough for me. Welcome aboard!

[NAE NOOKIE]

Yeah, good post. Any "good" deal the UK gets from the US will undoubtedly be detrimental to deals with other trading blocks. Trump's rallying call is "make America great again" not let's help the UK out if the mess they've made.
I am a supporter of independence but not necessarily a republican. I would keep Queenie as head of state and on coins etc. If it's good enough for Australia, NZ and Canada then it would be fine by me.

Whereas I'm a dyed in the wool republican as are many on the yes side of the debate :greengrin but the truth is that none of us are stupid enough to make it an issue. Whether or not Scotland becomes a republic is a debate for another time and very much on the back burner until independence is achieved.

Its also a fact that the current incumbent at the head of Royal family Ltd enjoys a huge amount of affection from the public for some reason, but the second she is out of the picture that situation which currently tips the balance in their favour will be well and truly a busted flush :thumbsup:

[James310]

It's a good point. I think last time round the currency issue could have been handled better but to be honest it wasn't one that bothered me. Next time as you say £ to Euro difference will be negligible. Changing currency has never stopped anyone going anywhere. Remember when you used to change to peseta, franc, deutchmark, lira etc.

What has the £ to Euro exchange rate got to do with independence?

https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/politics/holyrood/1754139/nicola-sturgeon-forced-to-deny-that-snp-would-join-the-euro/

"At the SNP conference last month, delegates voted in favour of setting up a separate Scottish currency “as soon as practicable” after independence once six economic tests are met."

[weecounty hibby]

What has the £ to Euro exchange rate got to do with independence?

https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/politics/holyrood/1754139/nicola-sturgeon-forced-to-deny-that-snp-would-join-the-euro/
**** me you're boring. It was something that people were getting hot under the collar about when talking about currency. The relative strength of each currency.
In an aside do you have some sort of search engine that alerts you when someone mentions independence on any forum, Facebook, Twitter, hibs.net etc. It's the only time you appear

[James310]

**** me you're boring. It was something that people were getting hot under the collar about when talking about currency. The relative strength of each currency.
In an aside do you have some sort of search engine that alerts you when someone mentions independence on any forum, Facebook, Twitter, hibs.net etc. It's the only time you appear

We never had any plans to join the Euro last time either. Nobody was talking about the Euro exchange rate at the last Independence referendum as again it was not an option that was part of any plan. What's boring is talking about stuff that has no relevance to what is proposed. You either don't know it or are being misleading, I suspect it is the former.

Why not talk about what is being planned as that is where the future debates will occur, or is that just a bit too complex for you.

[weecounty hibby]

We never had any plans to join the Euro last time either. Nobody was talking about the Euro exchange rate at the last Independence referendum as again it was not an option that was part of any plan. What's boring is talking about stuff that has no relevance to what is proposed. You either don't know it or are being misleading, I suspect it is the former.

Why not talk about what is being planned as that is where the future debates will occur, or is that just a bit too complex for you.
Yeah, sorry Einstein. I forgot that you are just far cleverer than us simple folk who want independence.
It was all part of project fear, the lies about having to join the Euro and how that would be a disaster for Scotland.
As it turns out joining the Euro doesn't look that bad an option.
I don't know what the proposals will be and guess what, even though you believe you are the smartest guy on .net neither do you. It will all come out as we move towards the next independence referendum.

[lord bunberry]

We never had any plans to join the Euro last time either. Nobody was talking about the Euro exchange rate at the last Independence referendum as again it was not an option that was part of any plan. What's boring is talking about stuff that has no relevance to what is proposed. You either don't know it or are being misleading, I suspect it is the former.

Why not talk about what is being planned as that is where the future debates will occur, or is that just a bit too complex for you.
The Euro has always been part of the independence debate. The no campaign have always used it as a part of project fear.

[Moulin Yarns]

Yeah, sorry Einstein. I forgot that you are just far cleverer than us simple folk who want independence.
It was all part of project fear, the lies about having to join the Euro and how that would be a disaster for Scotland.
As it turns out joining the Euro doesn't look that bad an option.
I don't know what the proposals will be and guess what, even though you believe you are the smartest guy on .net neither do you. It will all come out as we move towards the next independence referendum.

Don't forget the problem of mortgage conversion!!!! 😉

[James310]

Yeah, sorry Einstein. I forgot that you are just far cleverer than us simple folk who want independence.
It was all part of project fear, the lies about having to join the Euro and how that would be a disaster for Scotland.
As it turns out joining the Euro doesn't look that bad an option.
I don't know what the proposals will be and guess what, even though you believe you are the smartest guy on .net neither do you. It will all come out as we move towards the next independence referendum.

I am pointing the proposalas are known, they have 'come out' already after they were approved at the last SNP conference, hence my questioning what the Euro exchange rate to the pound has to with the independence debate. The plans approved did not involve using the Euro.

You seemed to think there was a chance we could adopt the Euro, yet that is not being proposed by anyone.

All assuming of course if we ever get Independence it's the SNP that are in government for the first term of the new parliament but that would seem highly likely.

[James310]

The Euro has always been part of the independence debate. The no campaign have always used it as a part of project fear.

No need now, the preferred option is much worse and much more complicated. Preferred by 14% of the population in a recent survey.

Good luck explaining those 6 tests.

[CloudSquall]

I'd prefer a Scottish currency, initially linked to the pound and then floated once conditions are sound.

I think the crisis in 2008 showed that having your own central bank is key in a crisis, without the possbility to devalue their currency Spain, Portugual, Italy all had to undergo a very painful internal devaluation process which is still causing issues in Italy today.

The Euro is more attractive than during the last referendum but I'd still prefer to follow Denmark / Norway / Sweden in maintaining monetary control.

[Mibbes Aye]

The Euro has always been part of the independence debate. The no campaign have always used it as a part of project fear.

Regardless, the Yes campaign made an absolute shambles of responding to it and haven’t yet sorted out a position that seems credible and plausible.

As neither a Nat or a Yoon, I’m the type of voter the Yes campaign need to persuade, by addressing my concerns about the nationalist mindset and by persuading me that the economic and financial arguments stack up. I don’t like the emotional nonsense about flags and destiny and freedom and all that Braveheart nonsense but I am pragmatic and I want the best for people, including me and my loved ones.

There is a lot of convincing needed to be done.

[The Modfather]

Regardless, the Yes campaign made an absolute shambles of responding to it and haven’t yet sorted out a position that seems credible and plausible.

As neither a Nat or a Yoon, I’m the type of voter the Yes campaign need to persuade, by addressing my concerns about the nationalist mindset and by persuading me that the economic and financial arguments stack up. I don’t like the emotional nonsense about flags and destiny and freedom and all that Braveheart nonsense but I am pragmatic and I want the best for people, including me and my loved ones.

There is a lot of convincing needed to be done.

To flip that, do you have thoughts either way whether you think yourself and your loved ones would be better off in a post Brexit, more likely than not no deal, UK or an independent Scotland?

[Ozyhibby]

I’m switching now to thinking that we should just join the Euro. After the crisis the EU showed that they were willing to totally stand behind the currency and that means that it is now very secure. It’s done nothing but strengthen against the pound since.
Joining the Euro would save the inevitable mocking of a new currency during the campaign and the scare stories that go with it. And people’s mortgages could easily be moved to euros.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[makaveli1875]

To flip that, do you have thoughts either way whether you think yourself and your loved ones would be better off in a post Brexit, more likely than not no deal, UK or an independent Scotland?

It's a question that can't be answered yet. Nobody knows what no deal brexit britain will be like or an independent Scotland. I'd rather wait and see what happens before jumping to any conclusions.

[The Modfather]

It's a question that can't be answered yet. Nobody knows what no deal brexit britain will be like or an independent Scotland. I'd rather wait and see what happens before jumping to any conclusions.

I agree, however in general it does seem like those against independence are expecting answer now to things that can’t be known until the separation negotiations or until we see each parties vision for an independent Scotland. Where as how Britain will look or how prosperous it will be post October is just as much of an unknown.

[James310]

I’m switching now to thinking that we should just join the Euro. After the crisis the EU showed that they were willing to totally stand behind the currency and that means that it is now very secure. It’s done nothing but strengthen against the pound since.
Joining the Euro would save the inevitable mocking of a new currency during the campaign and the scare stories that go with it. And people’s mortgages could easily be moved to euros.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

To join the Euro Scotland would need an independent currency in the first place. You need a currency to convert from and sterling will be another countries currency which is not allowed, we would also have no control over sterling as it would be in the hands of the rest of the UK and the Bank of England.

Unless of course you are suggesting the Euro on day 1 of Independence which means meeting all the requirements in a very short space of time, things like a 3% deficit which could mean severe cuts to public services and the setting up of things like Central Banks with sufficient reserves etc.

https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/joining-the-euro-area/convergence-criteria/

[Mibbes Aye]

To flip that, do you have thoughts either way whether you think yourself and your loved ones would be better off in a post Brexit, more likely than not no deal, UK or an independent Scotland?

I voted Remain and I certainly don’t have any desire to change my mind. I understand the criticisms of the EU but I think they are off-set by the measures that the legislature has introduced, notably around social justice and protection, worker rights and environmental protection.

I don’t want to leave on a No Deal basis, but I am conflicted. Rye Sloan, if you are watching, don’t gloat! I am very much faithful to a market socialism model. But I recognise that it is a theorem that is very Nineties and has to adapt as times and circumstances change.

While it might not fit with my ethos, I can understand why economic growth could be derived from a certain kind of economy, based on WTO and no-deal. I think it would be horrendous in terms of worker rights and potentially public services but I can see how it would ‘work’ if ‘work’ is the right word (and it is not :greengrin).

What is more likely is an exit on some sort of deal. That means a fudge. That means the worst of all worlds - giving up influence, soft power and hard power just to prove a point and satisfy the Brexit voters. At least we would probably still retain the need to meet some aspects of EU policy, which is generally progressive.

As for an independent Scotland? If Scotland were to be a single nation state I would desperately want it to be an EU member. I would be concerned about how Scotland converges into that however. There is no such thing as a free lunch and I think the arguments about EU membership that have been presented by Nats on here are arid and paltry.

I worry about the economic and financial case. The Czech Republic and Slovakia get talked about as models but that’s not comparing apples with apples and I would like something more convincing, especially given that the SNP-appointed Growth Commission couldn’t say anything that positive. I aalso worry that the disentanglment will take years and it will be a detrimental period.

I worry about the sense that we are okay because of oil. Fossil fuels are killing our planet. The last few months have seen the spectacular and devastating impact of climate change across the globe. The UN is saying we should be phasing them out immediately. Yet Nats on here post things like “Aye, oil, what a terrible problem to have”. Some people really need to wake up and get with the programme. Oil is a curse that will kill the planet for our children and their children. It isn’t worth exploiting in order to change the twirly flags on our civic buildings.

On the plus side, since devolution, Labour, the Libs and the SNP have introduced no shortage of socially progressive legislation that is not just ahead of the U.K. or Europe, but in some cases is genuinely global-leading. I have deep concerns about a number of areas in relation to social policy but I think the ethos that permeates the political class and the senior civil service is relatively sound and there is a sense and desire to be innovative and groundbreaking.

Not sure if that answers your question. I guess me and my loved ones will or would adapt, whether it is a no deal Brexit or an independent Scotland. I think a no deal will trigger the end of the Union eventually but not necessarily. You asked for my thoughts, fill your boots :greengrin

[Hibernia&Alba]

I voted Remain and I certainly don’t have any desire to change my mind. I understand the criticisms of the EU but I think they are off-set by the measures that the legislature has introduced, notably around social justice and protection, worker rights and environmental protection.

I don’t want to leave on a No Deal basis, but I am conflicted. Rye Sloan, if you are watching, don’t gloat! I am very much faithful to a market socialism model. But I recognise that it is a theorem that is very Nineties and has to adapt as times and circumstances change.

While it might not fit with my ethos, I can understand why economic growth could be derived from a certain kind of economy, based on WTO and no-deal. I think it would be horrendous in terms of worker rights and potentially public services but I can see how it would ‘work’ if ‘work’ is the right word (and it is not :greengrin).

What is more likely is an exit on some sort of deal. That means a fudge. That means the worst of all worlds - giving up influence, soft power and hard power just to prove a point and satisfy the Brexit voters. At least we would probably still retain the need to meet some aspects of EU policy, which is generally progressive.

As for an independent Scotland? If Scotland were to be a single nation state I would desperately want it to be an EU member. I would be concerned about how Scotland converges into that however. There is no such thing as a free lunch and I think the arguments about EU membership that have been presented by Nats on here are arid and paltry.

I worry about the economic and financial case. The Czech Republic and Slovakia get talked about as models but that’s not comparing apples with apples and I would like something more convincing, especially given that the SNP-appointed Growth Commission couldn’t say anything that positive. I aalso worry that the disentanglment will take years and it will be a detrimental period.

I worry about the sense that we are okay because of oil. Fossil fuels are killing our planet. The last few months have seen the spectacular and devastating impact of climate change across the globe. The UN is saying we should be phasing them out immediately. Yet Nats on here post things like “Aye, oil, what a terrible problem to have”. Some people really need to wake up and get with the programme. Oil is a curse that will kill the planet for our children and their children. It isn’t worth exploiting in order to change the twirly flags on our civic buildings.

On the plus side, since devolution, Labour, the Libs and the SNP have introduced no shortage of socially progressive legislation that is not just ahead of the U.K. or Europe, but in some cases is genuinely global-leading. I have deep concerns about a number of areas in relation to social policy but I think the ethos that permeates the political class and the senior civil service is relatively sound and there is a sense and desire to be innovative and groundbreaking.

Not sure if that answers your question. I guess me and my loved ones will or would adapt, whether it is a no deal Brexit or an independent Scotland. I think a no deal will trigger the end of the Union eventually but not necessarily. You asked for my thoughts, fill your boots :greengrin

I really don't think that's the case now. The EU reiterated today that the UK will either leave on the terms of the 650 page withdrawal agreement or with no deal, and "there is no in-between". The EU will not accept Northern Ireland leaving the single market and customs union without subsequent border checks, and nor should they. Johnson says he will not accept border checks and will not accept the backstop of Northern Ireland remaining in the single market and customs union under any circumstances; hence there is nothing to talk about. Remember that any change to the withdrawal agreement must be ratified by 27 EU countries, which, even if agreed, can't possibly be done by Halloween. The agreement is there; it's a matter of whether the UK government can get it through parliament, and the answer to that is no.

In his first speech as PM, in Downing Street, Johnson cleared the way for blaming the EU for no deal; and, whilst this is inaccurate, it reflects his recognition of the situation. Hardline Brexiteers now dominate the cabinet, many of whom don't want a deal with the EU. We must prepare ourselves for tariffs, border checks and a massive crisis in Northern Ireland.

[Mibbes Aye]

I really don't think that's the case now. The EU reiterated today that the UK will either leave on the terms of the 650 page withdrawal agreement or with no deal, and "there is no in-between". The EU will not accept Northern Ireland leaving the single market and customs union without subsequent border checks, and nor should they. Johnson says he will not accept border checks and will not accept the backstop of Northern Ireland remaining in the single market and customs union under any circumstances; hence there is nothing to talk about. Remember that any change to the withdrawal agreement must be ratified by 27 EU countries, which, even if agreed, can't possibly be done by Halloween. The agreement is there; it's a matter of whether the UK government can get it through parliament, and the answer to that is no.

In his first speech as PM, in Downing Street, Johnson cleared the way for blaming the EU for no deal; and, whilst this is inaccurate, it reflects his recognition of the situation. Hardline Brexiteers now dominate the cabinet, many of whom don't want a deal with the EU. We must prepare ourselves for tariffs, border checks and a massive crisis in Northern Ireland.

I think you make fair points but pragmatism usually triumphes and I still expect it to do so here. But also think that I am biased towards not wanting a no deal exit, so my judgement may be clouded.

The economic reality of no deal Brexit is such that I think there has to be some sort of redress and accommodation. BoJo or anyone can pontificate all they want but once they actually have the post of PM they are constrained by the sheer reality of the impact on the economy and have to both avoid Brexit and find a way of saving face.

[Hibernia&Alba]

I think you make fair points but pragmatism usually triumphes and I still expect it to do so here. But also think that I am biased towards not wanting a no deal exit, so my judgement may be clouded.

The economic reality of no deal Brexit is such that I think there has to be some sort of redress and accommodation. BoJo or anyone can pontificate all they want but once they actually have the post of PM they are constrained by the sheer reality of the impact on the economy and have to both avoid Brexit and find a way of saving face.

I really hope you are right, as the consequences of no deal will be catastrophic in a number of ways. However, I don't see any room for compromise, when the EU says the withdrawal agreement is final and Johnson is a prisoner of the ERG and other hardline Brexiteers. He knows he is only PM because of Brexit.

[Hibrandenburg]

We never had any plans to join the Euro last time either. Nobody was talking about the Euro exchange rate at the last Independence referendum as again it was not an option that was part of any plan. What's boring is talking about stuff that has no relevance to what is proposed. You either don't know it or are being misleading, I suspect it is the former.

Why not talk about what is being planned as that is where the future debates will occur, or is that just a bit too complex for you.

What are you talking about? The three wise men were preaching how we would have to use the Euro because they weren't gonna let us use their pound. Strangely enough they were also telling us we wouldn't be allowed into the EU.

[Hibrandenburg]

Regardless, the Yes campaign made an absolute shambles of responding to it and haven’t yet sorted out a position that seems credible and plausible.

As neither a Nat or a Yoon, I’m the type of voter the Yes campaign need to persuade, by addressing my concerns about the nationalist mindset and by persuading me that the economic and financial arguments stack up. I don’t like the emotional nonsense about flags and destiny and freedom and all that Braveheart nonsense but I am pragmatic and I want the best for people, including me and my loved ones.

There is a lot of convincing needed to be done.

But you do accept the status quo and the rise of English nationalist mindset and emotional nonsense about union flags and Britannia's superiority over the waves the British Bulldog nonsense. That's pragmatic and that's what you think is best for people living in Scotland, including you and your loved ones? That'll take some convincing.

[James310]

What are you talking about? The three wise men were preaching how we would have to use the Euro because they weren't gonna let us use their pound. Strangely enough they were also telling us we wouldn't be allowed into the EU.

I don't recall any plan to use the Euro by anyone proposing independence last time, maybe the greens.

I don't recall anyone saying we would not be allowed into the EU either, if you meet the criteria you are in.

What's your preferred option? I am sure you have one with reasons why.

[Mibbes Aye]

But you do accept the status quo and the rise of English nationalist mindset and emotional nonsense about union flags and Britannia's superiority over the waves the British Bulldog nonsense. That's pragmatic and that's what you think is best for people living in Scotland, including you and your loved ones? That'll take some convincing.

I think milking an idea of a wave of English nationalism has become a handy trope for Scots Nats. Unfortunately I don’t buy into it being the grievance issue you desperately need. And let’s face it, you don’t have rational arguments when you are a nationalist so you need a grievance.

While there are undoubtedly some English of that ilk, let’s be honest. There are not many folk in England who care too much about the Union. It feels like it is expatriate Scots who want to make the most noise, for what reasons one can only guess.

I will await you making a positive and rational case to convince me of the case for ‘independence’. Despite many exchanges, you haven’t done so yet

[Fife-Hibee]

I don't recall any plan to use the Euro by anyone proposing independence last time, maybe the greens.

I don't recall anyone saying we would not be allowed into the EU either, if you meet the criteria you are in.

What's your preferred option? I am sure you have one with reasons why.

That's because you recall and don't recall whatever suits you in any particular moment.

One thing is for certain though, the fearmongering over the use of the pound doesn't seem so scary anymore. - https://metro.co.uk/2019/07/16/brexit-weakens-pound-worst-performing-major-currency-world-10352619/?fbclid=IwAR2lgsOu-YHggM1BhbKhyy0XaWdRT_g621-vRaWRXUR6Hpzc0EKqd1hAsag

[Fife-Hibee]

I think milking an idea of a wave of English nationalism has become a handy trope for Scots Nats. Unfortunately I don’t buy into it being the grievance issue you desperately need. And let’s face it, you don’t have rational arguments when you are a nationalist so you need a grievance.

While there are undoubtedly some English of that ilk, let’s be honest. There are not many folk in England who care too much about the Union. It feels like it is expatriate Scots who want to make the most noise, for what reasons one can only guess.

"You don’t have rational arguments when you are a nationalist."

So what is your rationale for condemning Scotland to anti-european, far-right, British nationalism?

Surely the rationale for Scottish Nationalism is to escape it?

[James310]

That's because you recall and don't recall whatever suits you in any particular moment.

One thing is for certain though, the fearmongering over the use of the pound doesn't seem so scary anymore. - https://metro.co.uk/2019/07/16/brexit-weakens-pound-worst-performing-major-currency-world-10352619/?fbclid=IwAR2lgsOu-YHggM1BhbKhyy0XaWdRT_g621-vRaWRXUR6Hpzc0EKqd1hAsag

The awful pound that we will be using for an undetermined period of time if we become independent? Or until we meet the 6 tests, how long do you think that will take?

It's a matter of fact that if you meet the EU criteria you can join, Scotland will be no different to any other country.

[Fife-Hibee]

The awful pound that we will be using for an undetermined period of time if we become independent? Or until we meet the 6 tests, how long do you think that will take?

It's a matter of fact that if you meet the EU criteria you can join, Scotland will be no different to any other country.

Which of the "6 tests" won't Scotland meet as an independent nation? You assume because we don't meet them all as a member of the UK that the same scenario would somehow apply when we're not.

[Hibrandenburg]

I don't recall any plan to use the Euro by anyone proposing independence last time, maybe the greens.

I don't recall anyone saying we would not be allowed into the EU either, if you meet the criteria you are in.

What's your preferred option? I am sure you have one with reasons why.

You've a very short memory then. Project fear last time was telling us that we couldn't use the pound because it's not ours and the only way to guarantee our place in the union was as part of the UK. Are you really saying that didn't happen?

[James310]

Which of the "6 tests" won't Scotland meet as an independent nation? You assume because we don't meet them all as a member of the UK that the same scenario would somehow apply when we're not.


How can we meet them now as part of the UK, it's impossible. Do you really believe we meet these now as you seem to suggest? Do we have a Scottish Central Bank today with international and market credibility? We don't even have a currency yet so explain to me how we meet test 3?


The six tests in the SNP growth commission are:

Fiscal sustainability - a "sufficiently strong and credible fiscal position in relation to budget deficit and overall debt"

A Scottish central bank with "international and market credibility"

Evidence that the currency would "meet the ongoing needs of Scottish residents and businesses"

Sufficient currency reserves

Proof that Scotland's economic cycle is "significantly out of phase" with that of the UK, so that an independent currency is "feasible and desirable"

The currency must "fit to trade and investment patterns" better than the pound

[James310]

You've a very short memory then. Project fear last time was telling us that we couldn't use the pound because it's not ours and the only way to guarantee our place in the union was as part of the UK. Are you really saying that didn't happen?

You have gone off on a tangent, I questioned what the Euro to Pound exchange rate had to do with the Scottish Independence debate, not much I said.

Who on the independence side were proposing to use the Euro last time and who is proposing it this time? Nobody, that's why I asked why it's a concern for the independence debate now.

You also said we would be forced to use the Euro but some people were saying we could not join the EU, so how could we use the Euro then? Use the Euro outside the EU? How would that work.

What is your preferred option though, let's focus on the what is being proposed now that's relevant, not what was not proposed 5 year's ago.

[The Modfather]

I don't recall any plan to use the Euro by anyone proposing independence last time, maybe the greens.

I don't recall anyone saying we would not be allowed into the EU either, if you meet the criteria you are in.

What's your preferred option? I am sure you have one with reasons why.

What would be your preferred options in an independent Scotland? What would a manifesto look like you would vote for as to the direction you’d like an independent Scotland to go in?

We all know your preference isn’t for independence, but would be interesting to hear your thoughts if it did happen.

[lapsedhibee]

I don't recall anyone saying we would not be allowed into the EU.

Now you're just having a laugh.

[Moulin Yarns]

What would be your preferred options in an independent Scotland? What would a manifesto look like you would vote for as to the direction you’d like an independent Scotland to go in?

We all know your preference isn’t for independence, but would be interesting to hear your thoughts if it did happen.

Good luck. Don't hold your breath.

[The Modfather]

I voted Remain and I certainly don’t have any desire to change my mind. I understand the criticisms of the EU but I think they are off-set by the measures that the legislature has introduced, notably around social justice and protection, worker rights and environmental protection.

I don’t want to leave on a No Deal basis, but I am conflicted. Rye Sloan, if you are watching, don’t gloat! I am very much faithful to a market socialism model. But I recognise that it is a theorem that is very Nineties and has to adapt as times and circumstances change.

While it might not fit with my ethos, I can understand why economic growth could be derived from a certain kind of economy, based on WTO and no-deal. I think it would be horrendous in terms of worker rights and potentially public services but I can see how it would ‘work’ if ‘work’ is the right word (and it is not :greengrin).

What is more likely is an exit on some sort of deal. That means a fudge. That means the worst of all worlds - giving up influence, soft power and hard power just to prove a point and satisfy the Brexit voters. At least we would probably still retain the need to meet some aspects of EU policy, which is generally progressive.

As for an independent Scotland? If Scotland were to be a single nation state I would desperately want it to be an EU member. I would be concerned about how Scotland converges into that however. There is no such thing as a free lunch and I think the arguments about EU membership that have been presented by Nats on here are arid and paltry.

I worry about the economic and financial case. The Czech Republic and Slovakia get talked about as models but that’s not comparing apples with apples and I would like something more convincing, especially given that the SNP-appointed Growth Commission couldn’t say anything that positive. I aalso worry that the disentanglment will take years and it will be a detrimental period.

I worry about the sense that we are okay because of oil. Fossil fuels are killing our planet. The last few months have seen the spectacular and devastating impact of climate change across the globe. The UN is saying we should be phasing them out immediately. Yet Nats on here post things like “Aye, oil, what a terrible problem to have”. Some people really need to wake up and get with the programme. Oil is a curse that will kill the planet for our children and their children. It isn’t worth exploiting in order to change the twirly flags on our civic buildings.

On the plus side, since devolution, Labour, the Libs and the SNP have introduced no shortage of socially progressive legislation that is not just ahead of the U.K. or Europe, but in some cases is genuinely global-leading. I have deep concerns about a number of areas in relation to social policy but I think the ethos that permeates the political class and the senior civil service is relatively sound and there is a sense and desire to be innovative and groundbreaking.

Not sure if that answers your question. I guess me and my loved ones will or would adapt, whether it is a no deal Brexit or an independent Scotland. I think a no deal will trigger the end of the Union eventually but not necessarily. You asked for my thoughts, fill your boots :greengrin

Good balanced post. Although genuinely curious why The Czech’s and Slovakia aren’t similar examples? A country becoming independent from a larger union isn’t anything new, yet any examples people use aren’t similar examples, is Scotland potentially leaving the UK that unique in history?

I’ve said before that my main driver for independence is to separate from Westminster and the SE of England. I’d be as in favour of the rest of the UK breaking away from the SE of England as I am in going it alone ourselves. I started a thread about being apathetic to politics a while back, and a main reason for that is Westminster, and politics in general. Westminster, and UK politics is a throwback to a bygone age IMO. Everything wrong with it is embodied by the likes of Jacob Reese Mogg and his kind that are vastly over represented in parliament compared to the makeup of the country. All the parties are basically the same and no real difference in the real world and day to day life depending on who is in power. Don’t get me wrong, I think Scottish politicians are, in the main, every bit as self serving as those in Westminster. However I do think Holyrood is more representative of the makeup of Scotland, and slightly more progressive.

I’ve always thought Scotland and England (don’t really know much about the Welsh or NI outside of the DUP nutjobs) have had different political outlooks to varying degrees at different times. Now there is a clear chasm developing with England moving to the right at a worrying pace. Regardless of Scottish independence I think there needs to be a long introspective look to understand why the right is on the up and what fundamentally needs to change to redress the balance.

Part of me is excited by the possibilities of a clean slate of Scottish independence, but at the same time resigned to a true missed opportunity as at the end of the day politicians are politicians and they will squabble and bicker out of self interest and not actually work together to shape our country the way it could and should be. Within the current political framework Holyrood is a lesser evil than Westminster, but i’m an advocate of a radical shakeup of politics but no real idea how or what that means in real terms except for a few examples here and there. Viva la revolution!

[James310]

Now you're just having a laugh.

So how could people say we would be forced to use the Euro, and never be allowed in the EU at the same time. How could you use the Euro outside the EU?

Who said Scotland can't join the EU?

[James310]

Good luck. Don't hold your breath.

Why do I have to answer the difficult nationalist questions, how about for a real change someone that actually supports what is being proposed answers it instead of constantly asking the person who does not support it to answer it before them.

I won't hold my breath.

[lapsedhibee]

So how could people say we would be forced to use the Euro, and never be allowed in the EU at the same time. How could you use the Euro outside the EU?
Nobody said that it was the same people coming out with these two contradictory scary statements. Though it might have been the same people, as a lot of total **** gets spouted in the lead up to referendums.

I don't believe that you don't remember people saying that Scotland wouldn't be able to be in the EU if the vote was Yes. I think you're having a laugh, or lying. Which is it?

[The Modfather]

Why do I have to answer the difficult nationalist questions, how about for a real change someone that actually supports what is being proposed answers it instead of constantly asking the person who does not support it to answer it before them.

I won't hold my breath.

Or you could act like a grown up like the majority of posters, but not all, rather than point fingers and “aye, but what about him”.

You don’t have to be dogmatic in your opposition to independence every waking minute, nor will you burst into flames for thinking hypothetically about what direction you would like Scotland to go in if independence was to happen. It would still be as much your country as it is mine to shape.

[James310]

Nobody said that it was the same people coming out with these two contradictory scary statements. Though it might have been the same people, as a lot of total **** gets spouted in the lead up to referendums.

I don't believe that you don't remember people saying that Scotland wouldn't be able to be in the EU if the vote was Yes. I think you're having a laugh, or lying. Which is it?

I remember people saying we would not automatically be in the EU on Independence day 1, that's true. We would have to applied and meet the criteria, like every other country.

If you meet the criteria you can join, that's fact.

[James310]

Or you could act like a grown up like the majority of posters, but not all, rather than point fingers and “aye, but what about him”.

You don’t have to be dogmatic in your opposition to independence every waking minute, nor will you burst into flames for thinking hypothetically about what direction you would like Scotland to go in if independence was to happen. It would still be as much your country as it is mine to shape.

That's true, but how about someone that actually supports the position answers the question before we badger the person that does not support the position to answer the question so it can then be deflected away from why nobody that supports it answered the original question in the first place! That seems reasonable to me.

[Jack]

So how could people say we would be forced to use the Euro, and never be allowed in the EU at the same time. How could you use the Euro outside the EU?

Who said Scotland can't join the EU?

Countries already do use the Euro that are not members.

[JeMeSouviens]

Good balanced post. Although genuinely curious why The Czech’s and Slovakia aren’t similar examples? A country becoming independent from a larger union isn’t anything new, yet any examples people use aren’t similar examples, is Scotland potentially leaving the UK that unique in history?

I’ve said before that my main driver for independence is to separate from Westminster and the SE of England. I’d be as in favour of the rest of the UK breaking away from the SE of England as I am in going it alone ourselves. I started a thread about being apathetic to politics a while back, and a main reason for that is Westminster, and politics in general. Westminster, and UK politics is a throwback to a bygone age IMO. Everything wrong with it is embodied by the likes of Jacob Reese Mogg and his kind that are vastly over represented in parliament compared to the makeup of the country. All the parties are basically the same and no real difference in the real world and day to day life depending on who is in power. Don’t get me wrong, I think Scottish politicians are, in the main, every bit as self serving as those in Westminster. However I do think Holyrood is more representative of the makeup of Scotland, and slightly more progressive.

I’ve always thought Scotland and England (don’t really know much about the Welsh or NI outside of the DUP nutjobs) have had different political outlooks to varying degrees at different times. Now there is a clear chasm developing with England moving to the right at a worrying pace. Regardless of Scottish independence I think there needs to be a long introspective look to understand why the right is on the up and what fundamentally needs to change to redress the balance.

Part of me is excited by the possibilities of a clean slate of Scottish independence, but at the same time resigned to a true missed opportunity as at the end of the day politicians are politicians and they will squabble and bicker out of self interest and not actually work together to shape our country the way it could and should be. Within the current political framework Holyrood is a lesser evil than Westminster, but i’m an advocate of a radical shakeup of politics but no real idea how or what that means in real terms except for a few examples here and there. Viva la revolution!

They split soon after the collapse of Communism, so their independence from one another occurred at the same time as the almighty upheaval from the transition to market economies. They have both made a success of it though and the historically poor relation Slovakians have caught up with the Czechs to a great extent.

[James310]

Countries already do use the Euro that are not members.

Ok, if I am wrong on that I will admit it. What country has its official currency as the Euro but is not in the EU?

[RyeSloan]

Countries already do use the Euro that are not members.

Well I suppose that true if you truly see the likes of San Marino and Andorra as proper countries...

[Smartie]

Personally I've moved towards being keener on the Euro and less keen on a new currency over the past few months. I find myself looking towards the Republic of Ireland with increasing envy, respect and the way they fought back from their problems of a decade ago has been impressive.

Sterling can bolt. Strange, antiquated currency of a once proud empire that turned into a peculiar insular little enclave that is well on its way to being worthless.

[JeMeSouviens]

Well I suppose that true if you truly see the likes of San Marino and Andorra as proper countries...

Kosovo and Montenegro both use it (neither with ECB agreement).

[RyeSloan]

Kosovo and Montenegro both use it (neither with ECB agreement).

Ahh cool, didn’t know that thanks [emoji736]

[The Modfather]

That's true, but how about someone that actually supports the position answers the question before we badger the person that does not support the position to answer the question so it can then be deflected away from why nobody that supports it answered the original question in the first place! That seems reasonable to me.

What are you on about? You can stick to “I’ll show you mine but only after you show me yours first” if you want. I’d rather read posts from posters who aren’t so entrenched that they won’t even entertain how they, at a high level, would like to see their own country shaped in the hypothetical scenario of post independence while still retaining that they hope we don’t become independent, but each to their own.

[JeMeSouviens]

Personally I've moved towards being keener on the Euro and less keen on a new currency over the past few months. I find myself looking towards the Republic of Ireland with increasing envy, respect and the way they fought back from their problems of a decade ago has been impressive.

Sterling can bolt. Strange, antiquated currency of a once proud empire that turned into a peculiar insular little enclave that is well on its way to being worthless.

Brexit makes a huge difference. If we stay in the EU single market but rUK doesn't then you would expect that over time our economy would move into Euro alignment because that's where the opportunity will lie.

We will obviously be starting from a very close alignment to rUK though, so even in those circumstances it may make more sense to stay aligned with £, at least for an initial transition.

[Ozyhibby]

They split soon after the collapse of Communism, so their independence from one another occurred at the same time as the almighty upheaval from the transition to market economies. They have both made a success of it though and the historically poor relation Slovakians have caught up with the Czechs to a great extent.

Of course they have caught up, they are making decisions to suit their specific needs. Ireland has now caught up with the UK for the same reasons. Scotland will always lag behind the south of England in the current set up.


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[Hibbyradge]

The Euro is also used as an official or de facto currency as well as an 'anchor' currency by a number of countries and regions outside the European Union:

Azores and Madeira (Portugal)
Canary Islands (Spain)
Ceuta and Melilla (Spain)
French Guyana
French islands in the Caribbean
Mayotte and Réunion (France)
Saint Pierre and Miquelon (France)

In addition to the euro area, the euro is also the currency of some non-EU countries:

Andorra
Kosovo
Montenegro
Monaco
San Marino
Vatican City

[James310]

What are you on about? You can stick to “I’ll show you mine but only after you show me yours first” if you want. I’d rather read posts from posters who aren’t so entrenched that they won’t even entertain how they, at a high level, would like to see their own country shaped in the hypothetical scenario of post independence while still retaining that they hope we don’t become independent, but each to their own.

I know what would happen, it happens here all the time. I would answer and then the usual group would jump on what I say, all the time not actually being able to answer the difficult question in the first place.

Example, for those who now think the Euro is the best option then is that on day 1 of Independence or at another time.

If day 1 how do we meet the requirements to join the Euro before independence day arrives, seems almost impossible, but maybe not?

If Euro at another time then what is the interim currency we use, to ultimately join the Euro we need an independent currency, we will only get that when we meet these 6 tests. How would we achieve that and by when.

What is your opinion as you seem very keen to ask everyone what they think, without offering up any opinion yourself.

[Fife-Hibee]

How can we meet them now as part of the UK, it's impossible. Do you really believe we meet these now as you seem to suggest? Do we have a Scottish Central Bank today with international and market credibility? We don't even have a currency yet so explain to me how we meet test 3?


The six tests in the SNP growth commission are:

Fiscal sustainability - a "sufficiently strong and credible fiscal position in relation to budget deficit and overall debt"

A Scottish central bank with "international and market credibility"

Evidence that the currency would "meet the ongoing needs of Scottish residents and businesses"

Sufficient currency reserves

Proof that Scotland's economic cycle is "significantly out of phase" with that of the UK, so that an independent currency is "feasible and desirable"

The currency must "fit to trade and investment patterns" better than the pound

Did you even take the time to read and properly process my post? Once again, your response makes no sense to what my post was suggesting.

[The Modfather]

I know what would happen, it happens here all the time. I would answer and then the usual group would jump on what I say, all the time not actually being able to answer the difficult question in the first place.

Example, for those who now think the Euro is the best option then is that on day 1 of Independence or at another time.

If day 1 how do we meet the requirements to join the Euro before independence day arrives, seems almost impossible, but maybe not?

If Euro at another time then what is the interim currency we use, to ultimately join the Euro we need an independent currency, we will only get that when we meet these 6 tests. How would we achieve that and by when.

What is your opinion as you seem very keen to ask everyone what they think, without offering up any opinion yourself.

I’ve no problem giving my high level view of the direction I’d want Scotland to go in. They would still need to be in a parties manifesto so I would vote for the closest manifesto to the things important to me.

• Referendum (because we’ve not had enough of them) on the monarchy
• Get rid of trident and all the associated costs - I don’t see nuclear weapons as a true deterrent as I can’t ever see them being used in any scenario they’re just for status
• I would scale back the army and navy to a level required to protect our country domestically but wouldn’t have a foreign presence or foreign bases etc. Although depending on whether we were in NATO etc I would have a proportional force to fulfil our obligations
• Invest heavily in renewable energy and new renewable energy technologies
* Be part of the EU
• Use the Euro, and whatever interim approach is most sensible. I’ll let the academics do their analysis and present their case on the various options. I’m not stuck on the Euro so if there is a better option put forward I’d vote for that.
• Have sensible immigration policies, but at the heart of them ensure we are open and welcoming to any and all
* Social policies that continue some of the work done on our unhealthy attitude towards alcohol, fatty foods, even a progressive conversation about drug laws.
• I would also change the way elections work, with parties manifestos more akin to a business plan where they will do x by reducing spending on y with z being the net gain. Unlikely I know, but it is my wish list.

I’m sure there’s much folk disagree with or can pick holes in, but that’s my high level view of what I’d look for in each parties manifesto. Mostly I’m open to the experts working out the granular details and seeing why something I initially looked for is actually a good or bad thing based on these factors.

[James310]

Did you even take the time to read and properly process my post? Once again, your response makes no sense to what my post was suggesting.

What was your post suggesting, tell us.

[WeeRussell]

You have gone off on a tangent, I questioned what the Euro to Pound exchange rate had to do with the Scottish Independence debate, not much I said.

Who on the independence side were proposing to use the Euro last time and who is proposing it this time? Nobody, that's why I asked why it's a concern for the independence debate now.

You also said we would be forced to use the Euro but some people were saying we could not join the EU, so how could we use the Euro then? Use the Euro outside the EU? How would that work.

What is your preferred option though, let's focus on the what is being proposed now that's relevant, not what was not proposed 5 year's ago.

Hiya :bye:

[James310]

Hiya :bye:

Not sure what this means?

[WeeRussell]

Not sure what this means?

I just noted that you were upset at people not answering your questions - so I tried to do it as short and direct as possible.

I am on the 'independence' side and would have been happy to join the euro in 2014. I'm equally happy to do so now.

[WeeRussell]

Regardless, the Yes campaign made an absolute shambles of responding to it and haven’t yet sorted out a position that seems credible and plausible.

As neither a Nat or a Yoon, I’m the type of voter the Yes campaign need to persuade, by addressing my concerns about the nationalist mindset and by persuading me that the economic and financial arguments stack up. I don’t like the emotional nonsense about flags and destiny and freedom and all that Braveheart nonsense but I am pragmatic and I want the best for people, including me and my loved ones.

There is a lot of convincing needed to be done.

Do you know any serious independence campaigner that uses that in his or her case?

[southsider]

I really don't think that's the case now. The EU reiterated today that the UK will either leave on the terms of the 650 page withdrawal agreement or with no deal, and "there is no in-between". The EU will not accept Northern Ireland leaving the single market and customs union without subsequent border checks, and nor should they. Johnson says he will not accept border checks and will not accept the backstop of Northern Ireland remaining in the single market and customs union under any circumstances; hence there is nothing to talk about. Remember that any change to the withdrawal agreement must be ratified by 27 EU countries, which, even if agreed, can't possibly be done by Halloween. The agreement is there; it's a matter of whether the UK government can get it through parliament, and the answer to that is no.

In his first speech as PM, in Downing Street, Johnson cleared the way for blaming the EU for no deal; and, whilst this is inaccurate, it reflects his recognition of the situation. Hardline Brexiteers now dominate the cabinet, many of whom don't want a deal with the EU. We must prepare ourselves for tariffs, border checks and a massive crisis in Northern Ireland.
The US have already said that it will not sign a trade deal with the UK if Brexit devalues the Peace agreement. How a hard border not do that seems inevitable.

[James310]

I just noted that you were upset at people not answering your questions - so I tried to do it as short and direct as possible.

I am on the 'independence' side and would have been happy to join the euro in 2014. I'm equally happy to do so now.

I was talking about political parties at the time of the last referendum.

Even now it's not SNP policy so the Euro ain't happening unless the SNP change their mind again on currency.

But like a few on here you seem to favour the Euro, do you think we could meet the strict criteria before independence? Or are you suggesting the Euro after we are sterlingised and then have our own currency and then use the Euro? The latter option seems pretty messy, 3 different currencies being used.

[lord bunberry]

The US have already said that it will not sign a trade deal with the UK if Brexit devalues the Peace agreement. How a hard border not do that seems inevitable.
That’s the absolute shambles we find ourselves in. A foreign country is going to be dictating domestic policy to us in order to strike a trade deal. Where will it end? I heard something about the deal also being subject to us not signing certain agreements with China.

[Slavers]

I was talking about political parties at the time of the last referendum.

Even now it's not SNP policy so the Euro ain't happening unless the SNP change their mind again on currency.

But like a few on here you seem to favour the Euro, do you think we could meet the strict criteria before independence? Or are you suggesting the Euro after we are sterlingised and then have our own currency and then use the Euro? The latter option seems pretty messy, 3 different currencies being used.

Keep holding their feet to the fire James!

People who are the first to shout about brexit shambles cannot answer fundamental questions on their own quest for independence.

I have often heard Scottish independence being described as a lifeboat to escape from a sinking brexit Britian, however the proposed lifeboat supplied by the SNP has at least 6 massive holes in the floor and has a greater chance of disaster than the good ship britania.

Jumping into a lifeboat with gaping holes and with no clear direction to travel is no route to safety.

[Callum_62]

Keep holding their feet to the fire James!

People who are the first to shout about brexit shambles cannot answer fundamental questions on their own quest for independence.

I have often heard Scottish independence being described as a lifeboat to escape from a sinking brexit Britian, however the proposed lifeboat supplied by the SNP has at least 6 massive holes in the floor and has a greater chance of disaster than the good ship britania.

Jumping into a lifeboat with gaping holes and with no clear direction to travel is no route to safety.Yeah staying on your sinking ship is much better

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[Slavers]

Yeah staying on your sinking ship is much better

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The UK will prosper outside the EU and it will not sink or come remotely close to sinking.

[James310]

Keep holding their feet to the fire James!

People who are the first to shout about brexit shambles cannot answer fundamental questions on their own quest for independence.

I have often heard Scottish independence being described as a lifeboat to escape from a sinking brexit Britian, however the proposed lifeboat supplied by the SNP has at least 6 massive holes in the floor and has a greater chance of disaster than the good ship britania.

Jumping into a lifeboat with gaping holes and with no clear direction to travel is no route to safety.

Definite parallels between the Brexit crew who say a no deal will be fine, with no evidence to back it up and those who say we can use the Euro it will be fine but then struggle to answer any detailed questions about it.

[southsider]

So you are ready to risk the ‘war’ opening up again in Ireland just to satisfy the anti-European Tory’s. That is exactly what a hard border will do. As someone else said ‘ the IRA haven’t gone away. Their ASU have only been stood down.’ I would hate that outcome but I fear got the worst. Do the DUP really want that ?

[The Modfather]

The UK will prosper outside the EU and it will not sink or come remotely close to sinking.

Oh well, that’s that then. What’s all the fuss about Brexit!

[Hibbyradge]

The UK will prosper outside the EU and it will not sink or come remotely close to sinking.

Thank goodness for that. I was just starting to get worried.

[Slavers]

So you are ready to risk the ‘war’ opening up again in Ireland just to satisfy the anti-European Tory’s. That is exactly what a hard border will do. As someone else said ‘ the IRA haven’t gone away. Their ASU have only been stood down.’ I would hate that outcome but I fear got the worst. Do the DUP really want that ?

It's the EU that are insisting on a hard boarder, the UK have repeatedly stated that they don't want or need one.

[Ozyhibby]

It's the EU that are insisting on a hard boarder, the UK have repeatedly stated that they don't want or need one.

That’s because the the EU is not going to give free access to the single market and rightly so.


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[The Modfather]

Definite parallels between the Brexit crew who say a no deal will be fine, with no evidence to back it up and those who say we can use the Euro it will be fine but then struggle to answer any detailed questions about it.

I did as you asked on the previous page and gave you a high level of the shape and the things I would look for in an independent Scotland. Can I now expect the courtesy of how you would like Scotland to look if Independence did happen?

[Slavers]

That’s because the the EU is not going to give free access to the single market and rightly so.


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That's fair enough but to try and blame the UK for the hard boarder that the EU is insisting on is unfair to say the least.

[NAE NOOKIE]

It's the EU that are insisting on a hard boarder, the UK have repeatedly stated that they don't want or need one.

Why shouldn't the EU insist on a hard border? Its the UK who have decided they don't want to be part of the EU and that means we are subject to the customs barriers which apply to any non EU country wanting to trade with it. It might be the EU who are insisting on a hard border, but make no mistake the UK is solely responsible for that state of affairs. The EU look on it as the UK wanting its cake and eating it and no wonder because that's exactly what it would be.

Also, if N Ireland didn't have a hard border there would simply have to be one in the rest of the UK and IMO that would be a disaster for Scotland as every business looking to establish a presence in the north of the UK looking to do business with the EU would favour setting up in N Ireland over Scotland .. because it would simply be stupid not to.

[NAE NOOKIE]

I don't recall any plan to use the Euro by anyone proposing independence last time, maybe the greens.

I don't recall anyone saying we would not be allowed into the EU either, if you meet the criteria you are in.

What's your preferred option? I am sure you have one with reasons why.

Whether I agree with you or not you come across as a reasonably intelligent individual, which makes it all the harder to believe that you came out with that statement. Scotland being denied entry to the EU post independence was a major plank in the project fear campaign and well you must know it .. they were never done trotting out any tin pot Spanish politician they could find to hammer home the point that due to the Catalonian situation Spain would never support Scotland being admitted … It was on a number of newspaper front pages more than once in 2014 and on the TV news.

Thankfully the Spanish appear to have put that idea to bed firmly and recently.

[Slavers]

Why shouldn't the EU insist on a hard border? Its the UK who have decided they don't want to be part of the EU and that means we are subject to the customs barriers which apply to any non EU country wanting to trade with it. It might be the EU who are insisting on a hard border, but make no mistake the UK is solely responsible for that state of affairs. The EU look on it as the UK wanting its cake and eating it and no wonder because that's exactly what it would be.

Also, if N Ireland didn't have a hard border there would simply have to be one in the rest of the UK and IMO that would be a disaster for Scotland as every business looking to establish a presence in the north of the UK looking to do business with the EU would favour setting up in N Ireland over Scotland .. because it would simply be stupid not to.

Fair points but they also point out that an independent Scotland in the EU would require a hard border between Scotland and England.

Would you be happy with that?

[lapsedhibee]

So you are ready to risk the ‘war’ opening up again in Ireland just to satisfy the anti-European Tory’s. That is exactly what a hard border will do. As someone else said ‘ the IRA haven’t gone away. Their ASU have only been stood down.’ I would hate that outcome but I fear got the worst. Do the DUP really want that ?
Think the DUP have said that their priority above all else is to remain in the UK. Which must mean that they are content with a hard border, if that's the price of staying in the UK.

[James310]

I did as you asked on the previous page and gave you a high level of the shape and the things I would look for in an independent Scotland. Can I now expect the courtesy of how you would like Scotland to look if Independence did happen?

I was really only talking about your thoughts on the currency situation, but I enjoyed reading your other thoughts as well.

To be honest it won't come as a massive surprise to you if I say it's not something I have given huge thought to as it's never something I have supported. People don't tend to spend a huge amount of time considering positions they do not support. If it happened then I would accept the result and then make judgement on what was being offered, at the moment I have only one vision which is not for me. The economic case does not stack up, too many unanswered questions.

But for currency in an independent Scotland then I am struggling to see what a 'good' option is. As there is no way of using the pound in a formal currency Union then it's either the Euro, using sterling on an unofficial basis or launching a brand new currency. Have I missed an option?

The Euro - I am still unclear as to when people say they prefer the Euro do they mean the Euro on day 1 of Independence or at a date in the future. If day 1 how do we meet the criteria in a small period of time while we would remain part of the UK?

If at a later date then are people suggesting we go from the pound to a new independent currency and then to the Euro? Do we really want 3 separate currencies in X number of years, will that be a vote winner and will big businesses be willing to accept that?

Using sterling on an unofficial basis is an option but seems daft as it's a not something a modern and forward thinking country should even consider. I don't see how we as a country could claim to be independent when we would be using another countries currency and another countries central bank for economic and monetary policy. Also we could never join the EU with this set up. Nobody seems to be offering this as an option so let's discount it.

Which leaves the final and the preferred option of the SNP, launch a new currency. I have been vocal about that as well in that I see a lot of risk, a brand new currency will require significant reservers, setting up of new infrastructure like Central Banks, Balance of Payments considerations and so on. It also requires the 6 tests to be passed before it happens, I am yet to see anyone attempt to explain how and when that will be achievable. I won't mention exchange rate risk, don't want to go down that path again.

If we were independent tomorrow and I had to pick one it would probably be the Euro. But as explained above that path means sterling for the immediate period after indy, then a new Scottish currency and then eventually the Euro, so it's a world of pain to get there and meet all the various criteria for our own currency and then meet all the criteria for the Euro as well, and to pretend otherwise is classic Brexiteer talk.

[grunt]

Fair points but they also point out that an independent Scotland in the EU would require a hard border between Scotland and England.If the EU and the UK can agree a way forward that suits NI, with their much vaunted but so far invisible alternative arrangements, then the same solution will surely work between Scotland in the EU and England?

What's to worry about?

[James310]

Whether I agree with you or not you come across as a reasonably intelligent individual, which makes it all the harder to believe that you came out with that statement. Scotland being denied entry to the EU post independence was a major plank in the project fear campaign and well you must know it .. they were never done trotting out any tin pot Spanish politician they could find to hammer home the point that due to the Catalonian situation Spain would never support Scotland being admitted … It was on a number of newspaper front pages more than once in 2014 and on the TV news.

Thankfully the Spanish appear to have put that idea to bed firmly and recently.

Yes I do recall that now. However it's very much like trotting out similar non entities from Spain or the recent one was from France I think who say it will be easy for Scotland to join the EU and then some on here seem to be think it's fait accompli.

So yes I was wrong that nobody said it, but at the same time I don't think anyone took it seriously. I never. If you meet the criteria you are in, a country could I guess veto it but that would never happen in my opinion.

[Callum_62]

That's fair enough but to try and blame the UK for the hard boarder that the EU is insisting on is unfair to say the least.Jesus. That is some warped thinking.

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[Bangkok Hibby]

The UK will prosper outside the EU and it will not sink or come remotely close to sinking.

Can you tell me what date our totally ****ed pound will recover please?

[Ozyhibby]

People saying the economics of independence don’t work never explain how it works for Ireland and yet it would never work for Scotland? I really can’t understand that thinking?


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[Slavers]

Can you tell me what date our totally ****ed pound will recover please?

Some might argue that the pound has been over valued for quite sometime.

However, its clear to see that even on it's worst days the £1 is still worth more than a Euro or a Dollar.

[Slavers]

Jesus. That is some warped thinking.

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Care to put a little meat on the bones to your statement?

The UK has said that it does not require a hard border, yet some are blaming the UK for the EU insisting there is a hard border thus bringing about all the troubles that come with it.

[Slavers]

If the EU and the UK can agree a way forward that suits NI, with their much vaunted but so far invisible alternative arrangements, then the same solution will surely work between Scotland in the EU and England?

What's to worry about?

What's to worry about?

Well it is the authoritarian EU dictating to Scotland that it must have a hard border between our closet friends and allies - England & Wales. I would think it is easy to spot the concerns?

[Hibernia&Alba]

It's the EU that are insisting on a hard boarder, the UK have repeatedly stated that they don't want or need one.

If we leave the customs union and single market, the EU will need to check goods entering its trading area, just as they do with goods entering its most eastern and southern points. Goods entering Poland from Russia are subject to customs checks. Our government is trying to say we don't want to be part of the customs union and single market but still want the same access to it i.e. have it all ways. I'm afraid that isn't how it works. Of course we will say we don't need any kind of border in Ireland, but the EU certainly do. The offer of a way around it - the backstop - whereby Northern Ireland would temporarily remain part of the customs union and single market, is part of the withdrawal agreement, but, of course, it can't get through parliament. That isn't the EU's problem.

[James310]

People saying the economics of independence don’t work never explain how it works for Ireland and yet it would never work for Scotland? I really can’t understand that thinking?


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Ireland has been independent for nearly 100 years now, is it valid to compare a mature country like Ireland to a brand new country that Scotland would be. Would the economics work for Scotland 100 years after independence? I would hope so.

What is the economic case for an independent Scotland? Forget about Ireland for a minute.

[Ozyhibby]

Ireland has been independent for nearly 100 years now, is it valid to compare a mature country like Ireland to a brand new country that Scotland would be. Would the economics work for Scotland 100 years after independence? I would hope so.

What is the economic case for an independent Scotland? Forget about Ireland for a minute.

I think we could be back to being as rich a country as Ireland within 5 years. It’s not that long since we were as wealthy as them.


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[Hibernia&Alba]

Ireland has been independent for nearly 100 years now, is it valid to compare a mature country like Ireland to a brand new country that Scotland would be. Would the economics work for Scotland 100 years after independence? I would hope so.

What is the economic case for an independent Scotland? Forget about Ireland for a minute.

That was a much more valid question at the time of the first independence referendum. A no deal Brexit will be economically disastrous; even Brexit with a deal will be a big hit economically, and I have changed my position largely because of it. Scotland within the EU would be far better than staying in a UK trading on WTO terms for God knows how long, in my opinion.

[James310]

I think we could be back to being as rich a country as Ireland within 5 years. It’s not that long since we were as wealthy as them.


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In 5 year's? How would we achieve that then?

[Callum_62]

Care to put a little meat on the bones to your statement?

The UK has said that it does not require a hard border, yet some are blaming the UK for the EU insisting there is a hard border thus bringing about all the troubles that come with it.

The UK insist that we don't need visas to enter the EU after we leave with a no deal

Bloody dictatorship EU demanding we do

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[Callum_62]

Some might argue that the pound has been over valued for quite sometime.
.

Agree. It's actually a good thing we are sitting at 1.1 to the EUR [emoji106]


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[James310]

That was a much more valid question at the time of the first independence referendum. A no deal Brexit will be economically disastrous; even Brexit with a deal will be a big hit economically, and I have changed my position largely because of it. Scotland within the EU would be far better than staying in a UK trading on WTO terms for God knows how long, in my opinion.

Agreed that a no deal Brexit would be a disaster, a Brexit with a deal would be bad but the better of the 2. What if we left the UK with no deal, it might happen...would that not then be adding to an already awful situation.

If Scotland was to become independent how long do you think it would be before we met the criteria to join the EU? It could be a while.

[grunt]

What's to worry about?

Well it is the authoritarian EU dictating to Scotland that it must have a hard border between our closet friends and allies - England & Wales. I would think it is easy to spot the concerns?

I'm guessing you have read somewhere that the EU is authoritarian. This is of course complete and utter rubbish.

When you come to Easter Road to see the Hibees play, you're not allowed to smoke in the ground, and you can't bring your mates in for free and you can't start a fight with the people in the seats next to you.

Is Hibernian FC being authoritarian? No of course they're not. Those are simply the rules you accept when agreeing to come here and watch the football.

Same with the EU. If you have different trading arrangements with your neighbouring countries then you need a process for managing those different arrangements. That's why we need a border.

[Ozyhibby]

Agreed that a no deal Brexit would be a disaster, a Brexit with a deal would be bad but the better of the 2. What if we left the UK with no deal, it might happen...would that not then be adding to an already awful situation.

If Scotland was to become independent how long do you think it would be before we met the criteria to join the EU? It could be a while.

Whatever deal the uk has with the EU is the deal Scotland will have with the rUK. There will be no need for trade talks. That will be all done. We will be in the EU and they won’t.


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[James310]

Whatever deal the uk has with the EU is the deal Scotland will have with the rUK. There will be no need for trade talks. That will be all done. We will be in the EU and they won’t.


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We won't be in the EU on the day we separate from the rest of the UK though? We will leave the UK and then apply for membership which could take years to meet the Copenhagen criteria.

[southsider]

So no different to a no deal brexit but a least there will be light at the end of the tunnel.

[The Modfather]

We won't be in the EU on the day we separate from the rest of the UK though? We will leave the UK and then apply for membership which could take years to meet the Copenhagen criteria.

While it is of course important, why is it only the short term you focus on? Surely the point of independence is for the long term betterment of the decades and generations to come.

[James310]

While it is of course important, why is it only the short term you focus on? Surely the point of independence is for the long term betterment of the decades and generations to come.

Because nobody has done anything to convince me the long term will be a success. Maybe people will look back at Brexit in 100 years and say why did people just focus on the short term implications? Maybe in 100 years time Brexit will be deemed to have been a great success. Who knows....I can only judge what's in front of me today, not what might happen in 50 or 100 years.

[Ozyhibby]

We won't be in the EU on the day we separate from the rest of the UK though? We will leave the UK and then apply for membership which could take years to meet the Copenhagen criteria.

Scotland is already a member of the EU and so I’m sure we already meet all the requirements of membership. Nobody seriously believes an independent Scotland would have any difficulties joining the EU.


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[James310]

Scotland is already a member of the EU and so I’m sure we already meet all the requirements of membership. Nobody seriously believes an independent Scotland would have any difficulties joining the EU.


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No, the UK meets the requirements, as the UK is the member state not Scotland.

You won't see Scotland listed as a member state, the EU themselves list the UK as the member state. I don't see Scotland on that list, or Wales or Northern Ireland.

https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/countries/member-countries_en


I get that you think Scotland will just breeze into the EU but that is at the moment an opinion, not a fact and an opinion based on a large number of assumptions.

My opinion is we will not just walk straight into the EU as being a stand alone country we do not meet the requirements. We certainly can join the EU in the future but I don't believe that will be on independence day 1.

Now if you have some guarantee or proof that your opinion is indeed fact then that's another story....

Edit: of course we are due to leave the EU in October, so say there is an IndyRef2 in 2020 (which I don't think will happen) how could we claim to meet the criteria as we would no longer be in the EU. Surely as soon as we leave the EU we have left, we then need to reapply and need to meet the requirements as an independent country.

P.S - still keen to understand how in a 5 year timescale we can be as 'rich' as Ireland.

[makaveli1875]

I think we could be back to being as rich a country as Ireland within 5 years. It’s not that long since we were as wealthy as them.


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As rich as Ireland that the UK had to give a crisis loan to bail them out ?

[Ozyhibby]

As rich as Ireland that the UK had to give a crisis loan to bail them out ?

The money we gave to Ireland, we borrowed ourselves. Ireland will have paid us back in two years time (the way the pounds going they might pay us back with some spare change they have). Not sure we will have paid it back ourselves by then though.


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[Ozyhibby]

No, the UK meets the requirements, as the UK is the member state not Scotland.

You won't see Scotland listed as a member state, the EU themselves list the UK as the member state. I don't see Scotland on that list, or Wales or Northern Ireland.

https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/countries/member-countries_en


I get that you think Scotland will just breeze into the EU but that is at the moment an opinion, not a fact and an opinion based on a large number of assumptions.

My opinion is we will not just walk straight into the EU as being a stand alone country we do not meet the requirements. We certainly can join the EU in the future but I don't believe that will be on independence day 1.

Now if you have some guarantee or proof that your opinion is indeed fact then that's another story....

Edit: of course we are due to leave the EU in October, so say there is an IndyRef2 in 2020 (which I don't think will happen) how could we claim to meet the criteria as we would no longer be in the EU.

P.S - still keen to understand how in a 5 year timescale we can be as 'rich' as Ireland.

I’m quite sure the EU will be happy to allows us full access to the CU and SM while the membership process is underway. There is a lot of goodwill towards Scotland in the EU and we bring a lot to the EU as a country.


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[Bristolhibby]

yeah staying on your sinking ship is much better

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boom!

[Hibrandenburg]

Some might argue that the pound has been over valued for quite sometime.

However, its clear to see that even on it's worst days the £1 is still worth more than a Euro or a Dollar.

Not really.

[CloudSquall]

My opinion is we will not just walk straight into the EU as being a stand alone country we do not meet the requirements.

What EU membership criteria wouldn't we meet?

[James310]

I’m quite sure the EU will be happy to allows us full access to the CU and SM while the membership process is underway. There is a lot of goodwill towards Scotland in the EU and we bring a lot to the EU as a country.


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That would be a very unusual move if that happened, and I have read nothing that suggests that would be the case. As far as I now it would be unprecedented, but I guess it's a possibility.

Personally don't think that will be the case and like every other country before us we will need to apply and meet the criteria, like every other country before us as well.

If I was being cruel I could say you sound a little like a Brexiteer by saying we will get a special deal just because of who we are i.e. we are Scotland, everyone loves us so of course we will get a special unprecedented deal from the EU, but I won't.

[Hibrandenburg]

In 5 year's? How would we achieve that then?

With the wealth in natural resources, agriculture and technological resources we already have.

[James310]

What EU membership criteria wouldn't we meet?

Probably lots in the period between October when we leave and when Scotland was eventually to gain Independence. As soon as we leave in October and start introducing new UK legislation that differs from EU law and rules we are diverging away from the EU framework that is required for EU membership.

Food standards could be an example, we would not meet them as soon as we change them post Brexit.

We could be on WTO terms, that's obviously not compatible with EU membership.

I get some people believe it will be a breeze and we will get a special deal, but surely that does sound a bit Brexiteerish.

[Ozyhibby]

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/scotland-rejoin-eu-indyref-2-german-mep-elmar-brok-cdu-party-scottish-independence-referendum-a7669561.html%3famp


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[James310]

With the wealth in natural resources, agriculture and technological resources we already have.

That's just words, they sound great but what does that mean? I don't think the Growth Commission report which is facts and figures and predictions makes such bold suggestions but if that's what you believe then fair enough. Would be nice if you could show us why you believe that though and how it can be achieved.

[Bristolhibby]

So how could people say we would be forced to use the Euro, and never be allowed in the EU at the same time. How could you use the Euro outside the EU?

Who said Scotland can't join the EU?

Vatican, Andorra, Monaco, San Marino, Kosovo & Montenegro all use the Euro but aren’t in the EU off the top of my head.

But Scotland would get into the EU, no bother. Bank of Englandnis pro data owned by the people of Scotland anyway. Definitely a deal to be had, and it’s a damn sight more attractive than Johnston’s No Deal.

J

[Ozyhibby]

Probably lots in the period between October when we leave and when Scotland was eventually to gain Independence. As soon as we leave in October and start introducing new UK legislation that differs from EU law and rules we are diverging away from the EU framework that is required for EU membership.

Food standards could be an example, we would not meet them as soon as we change them post Brexit.

We could be on WTO terms, that's obviously not compatible with EU membership.

I get some people believe it will be a breeze and we will get a special deal, but surely that does sound a bit Brexiteerish.

Not a special deal, just the same as everyone else.


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[James310]

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/scotland-rejoin-eu-indyref-2-german-mep-elmar-brok-cdu-party-scottish-independence-referendum-a7669561.html%3famp


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For every German/French/Spanish politician you can quote I am sure I could quote back the opposite right back at you, but that would be boring.

But here you go.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/scottish-eu-independence-referendum-scotland-join-queue-membership-apply-a7627201.html


You obviously believe it will happen, I believe I have in a reasonable manner shown it will not be as clear cut as you may believe.

[Bristolhibby]

Definite parallels between the Brexit crew who say a no deal will be fine, with no evidence to back it up and those who say we can use the Euro it will be fine but then struggle to answer any detailed questions about it.

You do know the Euro has been in existence for over 17 years and used daily by 343 million people? Seems a pretty solid currency to use.

J

[Bristolhibby]

It's the EU that are insisting on a hard boarder, the UK have repeatedly stated that they don't want or need one.

Haha, take back control of “our” borders to leave one of them completely open.

Brilliant Double-Speak from the Hard Brexiteers.

J

[James310]

Not a special deal, just the same as everyone else.


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Everyone else has had to apply on their own merits, which is not what you were suggesting!

Your not going to change your mind, I get that.

[James310]

You do know the Euro has been in existence for over 17 years and used daily by 343 million people? Seems a pretty solid currency to use.

J

Great statement, but what question does that answer?

[Ozyhibby]

Everyone else has had to apply on their own merits, which is not what you were suggesting!

Your not going to change your mind, I get that.

I think our merits are pretty good.


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[Bristolhibby]

Great statement, but what question does that answer?

Think it was your middle point in the post I quoted.

Edit - yes it was regards to using the Euro and it will be fine but no evidence to back it up.

Statement was intended to provide some evidence that the Euro ain’t that bad an idea as it is a mature, much used currency.

J

[James310]

Think it was your middle point in the post I quoted.

Edit - yes it was regards to using the Euro and it will be fine but no evidence to back it up.

Statement was intended to provide some evidence that the Euro ain’t that bad an idea as it is a mature, much used currency.

J

So as I have asked others, but not had any reply to is that using the Euro on day 1 of Indy or the Euro at a point in the future?

If day 1 how do we meet the Euro convergence criteria in a small period of time while we would remain part of the UK but out of the EU?

If at a later date then are you suggesting we go from the pound to a new independent currency and then to the Euro? Do we really want 3 separate currencies in X number of years, will that be a vote winner and will big businesses be willing to accept that?

If the Euro is so popular all of a sudden I wonder why the are SNP pursuing a completely different policy.

[Moulin Yarns]

Some might argue that the pound has been over valued for quite sometime.

However, its clear to see that even on it's worst days the £1 is still worth more than a Euro or a Dollar.

Just, but the only way is down.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49156403

[Moulin Yarns]

What's to worry about?

Well it is the authoritarian EU dictating to Scotland that it must have a hard border between our closet friends and allies - England & Wales. I would think it is easy to spot the concerns?

Funny, I remember the better together bunch saying that there would have to be a hard border between IScotland and rUK

[JeMeSouviens]

The EEA agreement was specifically created to allow non-EU countries to join the SM while considering EU accession.

iScotland would be parked there pending accession. If Brexit happens then I expect the EU to make an open offer to Scotland. Thankfully that would free us from the disinformation of disingenuous trolls.

[CloudSquall]

Probably lots in the period between October when we leave and when Scotland was eventually to gain Independence. As soon as we leave in October and start introducing new UK legislation that differs from EU law and rules we are diverging away from the EU framework that is required for EU membership.

Food standards could be an example, we would not meet them as soon as we change them post Brexit.

We could be on WTO terms, that's obviously not compatible with EU membership.

I get some people believe it will be a breeze and we will get a special deal, but surely that does sound a bit Brexiteerish.


That would be the acquis communautaire which the EU grants a transition period for adoption upon request.

[Bristolhibby]

So as I have asked others, but not had any reply to is that using the Euro on day 1 of Indy or the Euro at a point in the future?

If day 1 how do we meet the Euro convergence criteria in a small period of time while we would remain part of the UK but out of the EU?

If at a later date then are you suggesting we go from the pound to a new independent currency and then to the Euro? Do we really want 3 separate currencies in X number of years, will that be a vote winner and will big businesses be willing to accept that?

If the Euro is so popular all of a sudden I wonder why the are SNP pursuing a completely different policy.

Keep the pound for a bit until England can launch a new currency. Sterling is part ours and will be until we decide it isn’t.

Euro is an option, as is a new currency. Euro would probably be easier but a new currency not beyond the will of man.

J

[JeMeSouviens]

Some might argue that the pound has been over valued for quite sometime.

However, its clear to see that even on it's worst days the £1 is still worth more than a Euro or a Dollar.

Lolz. I assume you’re taking the piss rather than actually thinking the exchange value of one currency unit is in any way relevant.

Either that or you must think the people of France suddenly had 10 times as much money when they adopted the €.

[CloudSquall]

https://commonweal.scot/library/backing-scotlands-currency-foreign-exchange-reserves-for-an-independent-scotland/

The Common Weal posted research into how a Scottish Currency could be launched, above is a link to their research into the ways to back a Scottish currency with the needed foreign exchange reserves, it's a good read especially given it is one of the main tasks/issues in creating a separate currency.

[Hibrandenburg]

That's just words, they sound great but what does that mean? I don't think the Growth Commission report which is facts and figures and predictions makes such bold suggestions but if that's what you believe then fair enough. Would be nice if you could show us why you believe that though and how it can be achieved.

The facts and figures show a clear picture, we punch above our weight in most areas and relative to our size we have a massive amount of resources. In the case of Brexit and Scotland leaving the UK but staying in the EU, there would be massive opportunities to take advantage of.

[Fife-Hibee]

Scotland is just a mere state. Like California in the US. :agree:

https://i.ibb.co/cydJh6r/jobby.png

[Just Alf]

On the currency question, I used to favour an iScotland having its own, now I'd rather we stick with Sterling initially until we can transition to the euro.

Hopefully that'll be via a negotiated settlement avoiding the need for a stop off at a seperate Scottish currency on the way, the whole point of the central Bank etc element in the EU guidlines is to show a country's fiscal policy is under control which in a way devolution shows to an extent.

James, you'll notice that differs from SNP policy, remember, voting for independence doesn't equal voting for the SNP, who's to say they'll have enough clout to drive everything they want through the parliament? Their '6 tests' for example might never see the light of day as I seem to remember it wasn't even fully backed at their own conference.



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[James310]

That would be the acquis communautaire which the EU grants a transition period for adoption upon request.

What's the timetable looking like though? We leave in October 2019, there are no plans for an IndyRef2 anytime soon. Say we hold one after the 2021 Scottish Elections (again no guarantees this will happen) then the earliest could likely be 2022, we then have say a 2 year negotiation period taking us into 2024. That's a best case scenario and we have 5 year's of moving away more and more from the EU framework before we even then think about applying to joining the EU as an independent country. We then apply to join the EU and have to prove we meet the various criteria, like reducing the deficit to 3% of GDP, it took Croatia 10 years to meet the EU entry criteria, so we are into 2034 if Scotland is anything similar. I am not sure how long the EU would allow a transition period for though.

[James310]

The facts and figures show a clear picture, we punch above our weight in most areas and relative to our size we have a massive amount of resources. In the case of Brexit and Scotland leaving the UK but staying in the EU, there would be massive opportunities to take advantage of.

That's just more words though, nothing there that tells me in 5 years from Indy we will be richer than Ireland.

The facts and figures in the only published economic plan for an independent Scotland in the Growth Commission report don't show that, so interested in what facts and figures you are referring to.

[James310]

On the currency question, I used to favour an iScotland having its own, now I'd rather we stick with Sterling initially until we can transition to the euro.

Hopefully that'll be via a negotiated settlement avoiding the need for a stop off at a seperate Scottish currency on the way, the whole point of the central Bank etc element in the EU guidlines is to show a country's fiscal policy is under control which in a way devolution shows to an extent.

James, you'll notice that differs from SNP policy, remember, voting for independence doesn't equal voting for the SNP, who's to say they'll have enough clout to drive everything they want through the parliament? Their '6 tests' for example might never see the light of day as I seem to remember it wasn't even fully backed at their own conference.



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Fair enough, but that would require a special deal for the EU to agree us to take on the Euro while we used Sterling as Sterling will not be our currency and we could not meet the Euro convergence criteria.

They might offer that deal, who knows.

[CloudSquall]

What's the timetable looking like though? We leave in October 2019, there are no plans for an IndyRef2 anytime soon. Say we hold one after the 2021 Scottish Elections (again no guarantees this will happen) then the earliest could likely be 2022, we then have say a 2 year negotiation period taking us into 2024. That's a best case scenario and we have 5 year's of moving away more and more from the EU framework before we even then think about applying to joining the EU as an independent country. We then apply to join the EU and have to prove we meet the various criteria, like reducing the deficit to 3% of GDP, it took Croatia 10 years to meet the EU entry criteria, so we are into 2034 if Scotland is anything similar. I am not sure how long the EU would allow a transition period for though.

It's quite a jump to put us on the same regulatory level as a former Yugoslav republic within a few years of Brexit, however if you see that amount of negative change to come in such a short period of time why are you arguing to stay within the union?

No one really knows what changes will come or how much we will diverge from the EU upon Brexit, personally I don't believe it would be that much that EU membership would be
jepordized for years especially if a free trade deal is hit with the EU.

If we don't have any sort of trade deal with the EU that allows us to diverge that much from the EU we'd be up the creek without a paddle.

Secondly the 3% deficit is a criteria for euro membership not the EU.

[James310]

It's quite a jump to put us on the same regulatory level as a former Yugoslav republic within a few years of Brexit, however if you see that amount of negative change to come in such a short period of time why are you arguing to stay within the union?

No one really knows what changes will come or how much we will diverge from the EU upon Brexit, personally I don't believe it would be that much that EU membership would be
jepordized for years especially if a free trade deal is hit with the EU.

If we don't have any sort of trade deal with the EU that allows us to diverge that much from the EU we'd be up the creek without a paddle.

Secondly the 3% deficit is a criteria for euro membership not the EU.

As seems to be flavor of the month it's join the EU and Euro all at the same time. Easy.

[ronaldo7]

The pound seems to be taking a battering at the moment. Lowest ebb for 2 years against the euro.

Maybe it should feel more patriotic.😆.

[lapsedhibee]

The pound seems to be taking a battering at the moment. Lowest ebb for 2 years against the euro.

Maybe it should feel more patriotic.��.

Got a puncture on my bike last night. Tried and tried to will it repaired, but it just wouldn't and I ended up having to put a patch on the tube manually. What did I do wrong? Was I just too gloomstery?

[CloudSquall]

As seems to be flavor of the month it's join the EU and Euro all at the same time. Easy.

To be honest that's were I would differ from those advocating the euro, and the deficit rule is why I would prefer a Scottish currency, seeing the recent issues between Rome and Brussels on deficit spending is something I would wish to avoid.

[ronaldo7]

Got a puncture on my bike last night. Tried and tried to will it repaired, but it just wouldn't and I ended up having to put a patch on the tube manually. What did I do wrong? Was I just too gloomstery?

I think I'll take the pound along to the proms. That should do the trick, either that or a P&O cruise, just to get it feeling a bit more British.

Just need to look out for the thugs onboard though.

Hope your bike is fine, and you found an independent retailer to get it fixed.

[Hibrandenburg]

That's just more words though, nothing there that tells me in 5 years from Indy we will be richer than Ireland.

The facts and figures in the only published economic plan for an independent Scotland in the Growth Commission report don't show that, so interested in what facts and figures you are referring to.

The facts are:

We have just over 8% of the UK's population.

32% of the land area.

61% of the sea area

90% of the fresh water. (There is more fresh water in loch Ness than In England and Wales combined!)

65% of the natural gas production.

96.5% of the crude oil production.

47% of the open cast coal production.

81% of the untapped coal reserves

62% of the timber production.

46% of the total forest area.

92% of the hydro electric production.

40% of the wind wave and solar energy production.

60% of the fish landings.

30% of the beef herd.

20% of the sheep herd.

9% of the dairy herd.

10% of the pig herd.

15% of the cereal holdings.

20% of the potato holdings.

100% of the Scotch Whisky industry.

70% of Gin manufacturing.

17 billion pound construction industry.

13 billion food and drink industry.

10 billion business services industry.

9.3 billion chemical services industry.

9.3 billion tourism industry.

7 billion financial services industry.

5 billion aeroservice industry.

4.5 billion whisky export industry.

3.1 billion life sciences industry.

Our textile industry is potentially huge, we sell the raw products abroad but could potentially produce more than the £350 million we already produce.

We could supply 25% of the EU's renewable energy just from wind and wave power.

Even when we don't include the carbon fuels to the tally, Scotland has more than enough resources, people and know how to make us a prosperous little nation operating successfully within the EU, we've just been mismanaged for so long that many have lost belief in ourselves or never had it in the first place.

[JimBHibees]

The facts are:

We have just over 8% of the UK's population.

32% of the land area.

61% of the sea area

90% of the fresh water. (There is more fresh water in loch Ness than In England and Wales combined!)

65% of the natural gas production.

96.5% of the crude oil production.

47% of the open cast coal production.

81% of the untapped coal reserves

62% of the timber production.

46% of the total forest area.

92% of the hydro electric production.

40% of the wind wave and solar energy production.

60% of the fish landings.

30% of the beef herd.

20% of the sheep herd.

9% of the dairy herd.

10% of the pig herd.

15% of the cereal holdings.

20% of the potato holdings.

100% of the Scotch Whisky industry.

70% of Gin manufacturing.

17 billion pound construction industry.

13 billion food and drink industry.

10 billion business services industry.

9.3 billion chemical services industry.

9.3 billion tourism industry.

7 billion financial services industry.

5 billion aeroservice industry.

4.5 billion whisky export industry.

3.1 billion life sciences industry.

Our textile industry is potentially huge, we sell the raw products abroad but could potentially produce more than the £350 million we already produce.

We could supply 25% of the EU's renewable energy just from wind and wave power.

Even when we don't include the carbon fuels to the tally, Scotland has more than enough resources, people and know how to make us a prosperous little nation operating successfully within the EU, we've just been mismanaged for so long that many have lost belief in ourselves or never had it in the first place.

But apart from that.

[Jack]

I think I'll take the pound along to the proms. That should do the trick, either that or a P&O cruise, just to get it feeling a bit more British.

Just need to look out for the thugs onboard though.

Hope your bike is fine, and you found an independent retailer to get it fixed.

P&O, them with the Union Flag on the bow, is a subsidiary of an American company!

There's not a lot that's British anymore!

In serial liar Johnson's acceptance speech he gave a glowing reference to the most British of newspapers, the Times. The Times is Japanese owned.

[ronaldo7]

P&O, them with the Union Flag on the bow, is a subsidiary of an American company!

There's not a lot that's British anymore!

In serial liar Johnson's acceptance speech he gave a glowing reference to the most British of newspapers, the Times. The Times is Japanese owned.

Try telling that to the hundreds on deck when leaving Bergen, waving their union flags, and singing rule Britannia.

Shocked I tell ye, they'll be mortified.

[Jack]

Try telling that to the hundreds on deck when leaving Bergen, waving their union flags, and singing rule Britannia.

Shocked I tell ye, they'll be mortified.

I was on a P&O ship a couple of years ago. I think the captain was the only person among the crew and staff that was British! And yes there was an awful lot of flag waving, UJ dresses and waistcoats and Britishness on our Italian built boat!

[McD]

The facts are:

We have just over 8% of the UK's population.

32% of the land area.

61% of the sea area

90% of the fresh water. (There is more fresh water in loch Ness than In England and Wales combined!)

65% of the natural gas production.

96.5% of the crude oil production.

47% of the open cast coal production.

81% of the untapped coal reserves

62% of the timber production.

46% of the total forest area.

92% of the hydro electric production.

40% of the wind wave and solar energy production.

60% of the fish landings.

30% of the beef herd.

20% of the sheep herd.

9% of the dairy herd.

10% of the pig herd.

15% of the cereal holdings.

20% of the potato holdings.

100% of the Scotch Whisky industry.

70% of Gin manufacturing.

17 billion pound construction industry.

13 billion food and drink industry.

10 billion business services industry.

9.3 billion chemical services industry.

9.3 billion tourism industry.

7 billion financial services industry.

5 billion aeroservice industry.

4.5 billion whisky export industry.

3.1 billion life sciences industry.

Our textile industry is potentially huge, we sell the raw products abroad but could potentially produce more than the £350 million we already produce.

We could supply 25% of the EU's renewable energy just from wind and wave power.

Even when we don't include the carbon fuels to the tally, Scotland has more than enough resources, people and know how to make us a prosperous little nation operating successfully within the EU, we've just been mismanaged for so long that many have lost belief in ourselves or never had it in the first place.


And this is why Westminster don’t want to see the union go

[Ozyhibby]

https://www.itv.com/news/2019-07-30/has-boris-johnson-forgotten-how-and-why-he-won-the-brexit-vote-writes-robert-peston/


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[Smartie]

https://www.itv.com/news/2019-07-30/has-boris-johnson-forgotten-how-and-why-he-won-the-brexit-vote-writes-robert-peston/


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Quite a good article, but -

"The idea of nation trumped whatever the EU represents. And there lay the inevitable defeat of David Cameron, George Osborne, Tony Blair, Gordon Brown, Jeremy Corbyn and all those claiming with varying degrees of enthusiasm to lead the campaign against Brexit three years ago."

Corbyn.

Really?

There is absolutely no justification for his name being in there.

[Hibbyradge]

Quite a good article, but -

"The idea of nation trumped whatever the EU represents. And there lay the inevitable defeat of David Cameron, George Osborne, Tony Blair, Gordon Brown, Jeremy Corbyn and all those claiming with varying degrees of enthusiasm to lead the campaign against Brexit three years ago."

Corbyn.

Really?

There is absolutely no justification for his name being in there.

I thought the same, but I expect the phrase "varying degrees of enthusiasm" refers to him.

[Smartie]

I thought the same, but I expect the phrase "varying degrees of enthusiasm" refers to him.

I just don't remember him at any point being part of any campaign against Brexit, even unenthusiastically.

He's been on the fence throughout and hasn't budged.

All of the others campaigned in one way or another.

[Hibbyradge]

I just don't remember him at any point being part of any campaign against Brexit, even unenthusiastically.

He's been on the fence throughout and hasn't budged.

All of the others campaigned in one way or another.

I remember him speaking during the campaign. He more or less just talked about what was wrong with the EU and suggested how he would change it. He wasn't openly opposing the EU but his "support" for remain was half hearted at best.

[lapsedhibee]

I remember him speaking during the campaign. He more or less just talked about what was wrong with the EU and suggested how he would change it. He wasn't openly opposing the EU but his "support" for remain was half hearted at best.
Think it was around that time that he said he was 'about 7 out of 10' for it.

[Hibbyradge]

Think it was around that time that he said he was 'about 7 out of 10' for it.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36506163/corbyn-i-m-seven-out-of-10-on-eu

[The Modfather]

The facts are:

We have just over 8% of the UK's population.

32% of the land area.

61% of the sea area

90% of the fresh water. (There is more fresh water in loch Ness than In England and Wales combined!)

65% of the natural gas production.

96.5% of the crude oil production.

47% of the open cast coal production.

81% of the untapped coal reserves

62% of the timber production.

46% of the total forest area.

92% of the hydro electric production.

40% of the wind wave and solar energy production.

60% of the fish landings.

30% of the beef herd.

20% of the sheep herd.

9% of the dairy herd.

10% of the pig herd.

15% of the cereal holdings.

20% of the potato holdings.

100% of the Scotch Whisky industry.

70% of Gin manufacturing.

17 billion pound construction industry.

13 billion food and drink industry.

10 billion business services industry.

9.3 billion chemical services industry.

9.3 billion tourism industry.

7 billion financial services industry.

5 billion aeroservice industry.

4.5 billion whisky export industry.

3.1 billion life sciences industry.

Our textile industry is potentially huge, we sell the raw products abroad but could potentially produce more than the £350 million we already produce.

We could supply 25% of the EU's renewable energy just from wind and wave power.

Even when we don't include the carbon fuels to the tally, Scotland has more than enough resources, people and know how to make us a prosperous little nation operating successfully within the EU, we've just been mismanaged for so long that many have lost belief in ourselves or never had it in the first place.

A certain poster has been unusually quiet. Wonder if he’s out measuring the land and sea area in an effort to refute your post and explain how all of that is actually a bad thing for Scotland 🤔

[James310]

A certain poster has been unusually quiet. Wonder if he’s out measuring the land and sea area in an effort to refute your post and explain how all of that is actually a bad thing for Scotland 🤔

I am deliberately trying not to get drawn into anything at the moment, its hard work keeping 5 or 6 of you on the right track!

As for all the facts and figures, they look great but still does nothing to prove to me in 5 years we will be richer than Ireland.

For example how does Westminster impact our tourist industry, will somehow the tourist industry grow with Independence and make us richer? What great powers will we gain for the tourism industry once independent. The FS industry is one industry that will by all accounts decline with Independence.

So lots of great figures but misses the mark in terms of the original query.

I won't be replying.

[Smartie]

I am deliberately trying not to get drawn into anything at the moment, its hard work keeping 5 or 6 of you on the right track!

As for all the facts and figures, they look great but still does nothing to prove to me in 5 years we will be richer than Ireland.

For example how does Westminster impact our tourist industry, will somehow the tourist industry grow with Independence and make us richer? What great powers will we gain for the tourism industry once independent. The FS industry is one industry that will by all accounts decline with Independence.

So lots of great figures but misses the mark in terms of the original query.

I won't be replying.

Fair point.

In pursuing a no-deal Brexit and further driving down the value of the pound, the government are making the UK a very cheap foreign holiday destination for those from overseas. That, coupled with the fact that fewer of us will be able to afford to go overseas on holiday and will be forced to stay at home for our holidays ourselves means that we face a Boris boom in tourism that an indy Scotland simply couldn't match.

[Ozyhibby]

I am deliberately trying not to get drawn into anything at the moment, its hard work keeping 5 or 6 of you on the right track!

As for all the facts and figures, they look great but still does nothing to prove to me in 5 years we will be richer than Ireland.

For example how does Westminster impact our tourist industry, will somehow the tourist industry grow with Independence and make us richer? What great powers will we gain for the tourism industry once independent. The FS industry is one industry that will by all accounts decline with Independence.

So lots of great figures but misses the mark in terms of the original query.

I won't be replying.

Is your contention that Scotland can’t be richer than Ireland?


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[The Modfather]

I am deliberately trying not to get drawn into anything at the moment, its hard work keeping 5 or 6 of you on the right track!

As for all the facts and figures, they look great but still does nothing to prove to me in 5 years we will be richer than Ireland.

For example how does Westminster impact our tourist industry, will somehow the tourist industry grow with Independence and make us richer? What great powers will we gain for the tourism industry once independent. The FS industry is one industry that will by all accounts decline with Independence.

So lots of great figures but misses the mark in terms of the original query.

I won't be replying.

Fair enough. I just took the post as a good, positive, example of the tools available that give a good chance of Scotland making a success of independence. However the tools still have to be used used correctly and not squandered.

Maybe food for thought, but if you were to focus more on the positives of staying in the union rather than trying to find fault in anything remotely independence related you’d possibly persuade more people that we’re better off in the union than your current approach. I’d certainly be more receptive to the idea of being better off staying in the union than simply denigrate independence and say you don’t need to put forward a positive case for the union as your not the one proposing change (even though we’re going through massive change as we speak)

[Glory Lurker]

Independence would definitely boost tourism. We'd be a big story on every news programme on the planet and it'd have folk flocking even more than they do now to see our place.

[Jack]

I am deliberately trying not to get drawn into anything at the moment, its hard work keeping 5 or 6 of you on the right track!

As for all the facts and figures, they look great but still does nothing to prove to me in 5 years we will be richer than Ireland.

For example how does Westminster impact our tourist industry, will somehow the tourist industry grow with Independence and make us richer? What great powers will we gain for the tourism industry once independent. The FS industry is one industry that will by all accounts decline with Independence.

So lots of great figures but misses the mark in terms of the original query.

I won't be replying.

So "I won't be replying" is now deemed and adequate response as far as you're concerned while at the same time you hound others for a response to the questions you ask?

It's the sort of crap we got from Boris during the non-debates for the Tory leadership!

Answer the question.

[CloudSquall]

Financial Services is actually a sector I could see growing if we were to become independent and within the EU, Edinburgh with it's reputation as a financial hub could attract further investment as a base for companies especially from the English speaking world looking to enter or expand in the EU market.

Ireland of course has benefited tremendously from this type of foreign investment but it has had very low tax rates which I don't think the majority in Scotland want to follow.

[allmodcons]

Financial Services is actually a sector I could see growing if we were to become independent and within the EU, Edinburgh with it's reputation as a financial hub could attract further investment as a base for companies especially from the English speaking world looking to enter or expand in the EU market.

Ireland of course has benefited tremendously from this type of foreign investment but it has had very low tax rates which I don't think the majority in Scotland want to follow.

:agree: Financial Services could also benefit from the simple fact that Edinburgh would house the Parliament of an Independent Scotland. it's common for companies to want to be where the big decisions are taken and with Edinburgh already a well established Financial Services centre IMO it would grow and blossom in an Independent Scotland.

[Ozyhibby]

Financial Services is actually a sector I could see growing if we were to become independent and within the EU, Edinburgh with it's reputation as a financial hub could attract further investment as a base for companies especially from the English speaking world looking to enter or expand in the EU market.

Ireland of course has benefited tremendously from this type of foreign investment but it has had very low tax rates which I don't think the majority in Scotland want to follow.

Ireland’s low tax rates brings in more money than our high tax rates.
The Irish financial and legal service industries was very worried in case we voted yes in 2014 because we would have been able to compete with them for the investment they are getting now. Being the only English speaking part of the EU after brexit will be good for Dublin but Scotland will be able to grab a bit of that pie if we eventually vote to leave the UK union and join the EU union.


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[Ozyhibby]

:agree: Financial Services could also benefit from the simple fact that Edinburgh would house the Parliament of an Independent Scotland. it's common for companies to want to be where the big decisions are taken and with Edinburgh already a well established Financial Services centre IMO it would grow and blossom in an Independent Scotland.

Not to mention all the embassies and consulates that would need set up in Edinburgh. And then you have foreign news agencies setting up here as well. There is also the large amount of EU legal work that goes through London just now that will be looking for a new English speaking home. The boost to Edinburgh’s economy would be massive.


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[Hibrandenburg]

I am deliberately trying not to get drawn into anything at the moment, its hard work keeping 5 or 6 of you on the right track!

As for all the facts and figures, they look great but still does nothing to prove to me in 5 years we will be richer than Ireland.

For example how does Westminster impact our tourist industry, will somehow the tourist industry grow with Independence and make us richer? What great powers will we gain for the tourism industry once independent. The FS industry is one industry that will by all accounts decline with Independence.

So lots of great figures but misses the mark in terms of the original query.

I won't be replying.

You wanted facts, you dismissed my previous posts of being "Just words" so I listed the facts for you and you now won't reply other than mutter some unfounded speculation of decline in the FS industry and tourism. You're some bloke James, only willing to discuss that what can't be answered and thus create uncertainty in the case for independence. We've got all we need to be a great wee country looking after our own interests that currently conflict with the interests of a central government that treats us like a foreign colony. Oh apologies, I nearly forgot we can't use common pronouns.

[Hibrandenburg]

Not to mention all the embassies and consulates that would need set up in Edinburgh. And then you have foreign news agencies setting up here as well. There is also the large amount of EU legal work that goes through London just now that will be looking for a new English speaking home. The boost to Edinburgh’s economy would be massive.


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:agree:

[Hibrandenburg]

So "I won't be replying" is now deemed and adequate response as far as you're concerned while at the same time you hound others for a response to the questions you ask?

It's the sort of crap we got from Boris during the non-debates for the Tory leadership!

Answer the question.

I won't hold my breath. He's been off for a while fact checking my list and came back with some loosely related spiffle.

[James310]

I tried to stay out but....

The majority of Scottish FS firms serve UK customers, RBS and Standard Life for example have significantly more customers in England than they do in Scotland.

Pretty much all of the banking firms in Scotland focus on the Retail sector, again with customers based across the whole of the UK with majority of them in England, the Life Insurance sector is also heavily focussed on the domestic market, most of their customers are south east England based.

The large fund managers etc already have EU subsidiaries in place.

So the majority of FS firms in Scotland have the majority of their customers in other parts of the UK, mainly England, I think they are only moving to one place in the event of Independence.

There will be a hit to the industry in the event of Independence, to deny it when the facts say otherwise is like a Brexiteer saying a no deal will just be fine.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/30/scottish-independence-greater-threat-to-financial-services-indus/amp/

"Scottish independence poses a greater threat than Brexit to Scotland’s £8 billion-a-year financial services industry because of its reliance on English customers, according to a report by two of the sector’s most eminent figures."

[Ozyhibby]

I tried to stay out but....

The majority of Scottish FS firms serve UK customers, RBS and Standard Life for example have significantly more customers in England than they do in Scotland.

Pretty much all of the banking firms in Scotland focus on the Retail sector, again with customers based across the whole of the UK with majority of them in England, the Life Insurance sector is also heavily focussed on the domestic market, most of their customers are south east England based.

The large fund managers etc already have EU subsidiaries in place.

So the majority of FS firms in Scotland have the majority of their customers in other parts of the UK, mainly England, I think they are only moving to one place in the event of Independence.

There will be a hit to the industry in the event of Independence, to deny it when the facts say otherwise is like a Brexiteer saying a no deal will just be fine.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/30/scottish-independence-greater-threat-to-financial-services-indus/amp/

"Scottish independence poses a greater threat than Brexit to Scotland’s £8 billion-a-year financial services industry because of its reliance on English customers, according to a report by two of the sector’s most eminent figures."

And once rUK realises it needs a deal with the EU those English customers will still be there.


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[James310]

And once rUK realises it needs a deal with the EU those English customers will still be there.


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To serve domestic customers? Why?

[Mibbes Aye]

Ireland’s low tax rates brings in more money than our high tax rates.
The Irish financial and legal service industries was very worried in case we voted yes in 2014 because we would have been able to compete with them for the investment they are getting now. Being the only English speaking part of the EU after brexit will be good for Dublin but Scotland will be able to grab a bit of that pie if we eventually vote to leave the UK union and join the EU union.


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Can you really do a like for like comparison between two very different nations on a singular basis of low business tax/high business tax? And ours aren’t exactly that high to be honest?

I am not saying you can’t, I’m just curious if you have a compelling argument.

More importantly, ‘race to the bottom’ in terms of attracting business investment is surely flawed? In a ‘perfect’ capitalist environment it should work in theory but history teaches us that society and economics don’t exist in lab conditions.

I wonder how many other people who support independence would agree with you that we should be attracting investment through Thatcherite tax cuts and deregulation? Maybe a conversation for you and them, might actually make an interesting thread! :greengrin

[James310]

I wonder how many other people who support independence would agree with you that we should be attracting investment through Thatcherite tax cuts and deregulation? Maybe a conversation for you and them, might actually make an interesting thread! :greengrin

That I would like to see. Will anyone be brave enough to either challenge it or agree with it. I doubt it.

[Ozyhibby]

Can you really do a like for like comparison between two very different nations on a singular basis of low business tax/high business tax? And ours aren’t exactly that high to be honest?

I am not saying you can’t, I’m just curious if you have a compelling argument.

More importantly, ‘race to the bottom’ in terms of attracting business investment is surely flawed? In a ‘perfect’ capitalist environment it should work in theory but history teaches us that society and economics don’t exist in lab conditions.

I wonder how many other people who support independence would agree with you that we should be attracting investment through Thatcherite tax cuts and deregulation? Maybe a conversation for you and them, might actually make an interesting thread! :greengrin

I’m in favour of tax rates that maximise income. If we can charge 12% and raise more money than if we charge 20% then I’m all for it.
Direct comparisons are difficult because of the complexity of the tax code (one of the reasons our productivity is low) but on the whole I doubt the Irish are keeping their rates low because of ideological reasons. They are doing it because it brings in more cash for public services.


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[Mibbes Aye]

I’m in favour of tax rates that maximise income. If we can charge 12% and raise more money than if we charge 20% then I’m all for it.
Direct comparisons are difficult because of the complexity of the tax code (one of the reasons our productivity is low) but on the whole I doubt the Irish are keeping their rates low because of ideological reasons. They are doing it because it brings in more cash for public services.


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Or they are too hooked into the multinationals to risk losing them without crashing the economy. But the problem with the race to the bottom is they always risk being undercut by someone new.

You are right about the difficulty of direct comparisons. That’s why I asked if there was a compelling argument that demonstrated it. Seeing as there isn’t then perhaps we will get less of the comparisons to Ireland that really aren’t being substantiated.

[Hibrandenburg]

That I would like to see. Will anyone be brave enough to either challenge it or agree with it. I doubt it.

An independent Scotland will see parties campaigning for and against lower taxes and deregulation, I'm surprised you seem to think that all independence supporters are all politically aligned other than the belief that self determination would be good for Scotland.

[James310]

It's all coming to an end anyway, and guess who is behind it. The pesky EU. So if they are saying Ireland can't continue with this tax haven status then I am confused as to why some seem to think Scotland in the EU could.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/ireland-s-love-affair-with-multinationals-is-set-to-change-but-how-can-we-adapt-1.3967201?mode=amp

[Mibbes Aye]

An independent Scotland will see parties campaigning for and against lower taxes and deregulation, I'm surprised you seem to think that all independence supporters are all politically aligned other than the belief that self determination would be good for Scotland.
I think you are missing the point.

One of the biggest factors in the referendum loss was the absolute failure to make an economic case.

It would be good to see some debate from those who want separation as to what the economy and fiscal policy should look like after the fact.

It reads like some of the arguments for separation are based on some diametrically opposite views.

It does feel like any port in a storm, to try and make the argument for leaving the Union :greengrin

But that is not really good enough, is it?

[Hibrandenburg]

I think you are missing the point.

One of the biggest factors in the referendum loss was the absolute failure to make an economic case.

It would be good to see some debate from those who want separation as to what the economy and fiscal policy should look like after the fact.

It reads like some of the arguments for separation are based on some diametrically opposite views.

It does feel like any port in a storm, to try and make the argument for leaving the Union :greengrin

But that is not really good enough, is it?

Where does that differ from the current situation where every couple of years there's elections to decide which of the diametrically opposed parties get to decide fiscal policy and then impose it on the Scottish electorate whether they like it or not? Apart from the like it or not part. :greengrin

[The Modfather]

I think you are missing the point.

One of the biggest factors in the referendum loss was the absolute failure to make an economic case.

It would be good to see some debate from those who want separation as to what the economy and fiscal policy should look like after the fact.

It reads like some of the arguments for separation are based on some diametrically opposite views.

It does feel like any port in a storm, to try and make the argument for leaving the Union :greengrin

But that is not really good enough, is it?

What is it specifically you’re looking for? Genuine question. A few pages back I made a stab at the kind of things I’d look for in each parties manifestos. It would be just as easy to find articles that support the economic case for independence as there are finding articles that challenge the economic case.

I’m no economist, and there are lots of posters more knowledgeable of economics and politics than me. Much like Brexit, with so many unknown variables and things that have still to be negotiated, I don’t see how anyone from either side can talk in economic absolutes and thus conclusively probe the argument either way just now.

[Mibbes Aye]

What is it specifically you’re looking for? Genuine question. A few pages back I made a stab at the kind of things I’d look for in each parties manifestos. It would be just as easy to find articles that support the economic case for independence as there are finding articles that challenge the economic case.

I’m no economist, and there are lots of posters more knowledgeable of economics and politics than me. Much like Brexit, with so many unknown variables and things that have still to be negotiated, I don’t see how anyone from either side can talk in economic absolutes and thus conclusively probe the argument either way just now.

I’m not sure what I was looking for though I think I am looking for something now, if that makes sense.

I’m not a nationalist, nor a unionist and explained what I feel would be best a few times but acknowledge that it is a difficult goal to achieve.

What struck me tonight is that there are many independence supporters on here or nationalists or separatists, whatever you want to call them or yourselves.

The conversations tend to be very much an onslaught against the one or two obvious unionists and I understand it is a very emotional thing for a lot of people.

But as a relatively dispassionate observer it struck me that there is no real sense of what Scotland looks like, should leaving the union happen. I’ve read countless posts saying that will be a matter for future elections and the SNP won’t need to exist and so on, but I don’t find that good enough.

I would like to see some proper debate about economic and fiscal policy in a post-Union Scotland and I would probably contribute myself. It would affect me and my children after all!

At the moment it seems to be ‘independence at any or all costs’ for many but this thread shows there are Indies who want much lower regulation and taxation and some who see the potential for a higher taxing state that spends more on social welfare.

I think an honest conversation about those differences is critical. It might even help swing some of that soft No vote, as I strongly suspect this was one of the major issues for many of them.

[Mibbes Aye]

Where does that differ from the current situation where every couple of years there's elections to decide which of the diametrically opposed parties get to decide fiscal policy and then impose it on the Scottish electorate whether they like it or not? Apart from the like it or not part. :greengrin

Sorry, I replied to Modfather post first as I saw it first but hopefully covers your point.

[NAE NOOKIE]

Fair points but they also point out that an independent Scotland in the EU would require a hard border between Scotland and England.

Would you be happy with that?

Perfectly.

[Hibrandenburg]

Sorry, I replied to Modfather post first as I saw it first but hopefully covers your point.

No problem, I'm an hour's drinking time ahead of you so will probably come back tomorrow providing this Mampe Halb Halb leaves me with a clear head like its doner promised.

[Mibbes Aye]

No problem, I'm an hour's drinking time ahead of you so will probably come back tomorrow providing this Mampe Halb Halb leaves me with a clear head like its doner promised.

That sounds entirely reasonable :greengrin