Brexit - What Now.

[Hibrandenburg]

So, do I have this right ? If Strathsprey sells its Whisky to the EU there is Duty to pay but Belfast can sell its whiskey to the EU Duty free ? That’s sounds like a fair deal does it not ?

Is this true? Will there be export tariffs imposed on scotch whisky but not Northern Irish?

[Moulin Yarns]

I’m a bit lost with it all to be honest.

Does the ‘new’ deal re NI replace the backstop so therefore will only kick in if the trade deal talks don’t succeed in time?

In other words are we still arguing over the insurance policy?

The new deal, compared to what was being proposed just last week where they were talking about border control 5 miles from the border is simple,border control is now at Cairnryan.

[hibby6270]

LONG POST ALERT!!

Myself, along with my good lady, and no doubt thousands of others of a similar disposition, are off for a long weekend tomorrow to warmer sunnier climes in Portugal. It got me thinking. Just what on a personal basis I can do now on an unhindered basis, and currently take for granted, against what I perceive I won’t be able to do after Brexit.

1. Won’t have to apply for or pay for a Visa or similar country entry document.
2. Waltz through passport control without any 3rd degree questioning.
3. Use my mobile phone and tablet as much as I want, within my own contract limits, without worrying about roaming charges.
4. Bring back an unlimited amount of excisable alcohol and tobacco products as long as I can cram them in my case.
5. Longingly look at my EHIC card, and worryingly, hope I maybe have a minor accident whilst away (I don’t really but we do have form!!🤪) and take advantage of free emergency health care under the EHIC scheme.
6. Know that I can freely hire a car (see 8 below), should I wish, without having to have some sort of international permit to let me do so.
7. Maybe avail myself of a wee part time bar job without the need to jump through hoops to follow employment rules. Well, maybe not this one but you get where I’m coming from - yeah? 😃
8. Could even jump over to Spain for a wee visit and nobody will stop me or bat an eyelid as to where I’m from within the EU.
9. Know that because I’ll be returning before 31st October, my internal EU flight will still fly under current reciprocity rules for flights between EU & U.K.
10. And finally, it’s not really Brexit related!!, but the weather is almost guaranteed to be better than in the U.K.

I’ve only used this (#10) because I thought having 10 good personal reasons was an ideal way to highlight why Brexit is NOT a “good deal” for everyone.

As well as the above, we apparently no longer have a requirement for all the existing trade deals negotiated under the EU banner, extended fishing waters, agricultural policy subsidies, EU funding for research projects, etc, that we’ve enjoyed for the last 40 years or so. Why is the country inflicting this self harm on itself? I still find it incomprehensible and certainly cannot “celebrate” today’s so called momentous events. 😩😩

A sobering thought. 😏😡😭

[Moulin Yarns]

Is this true? Will there be export tariffs imposed on scotch whisky but not Northern Irish?

That is what will be thrashed out during the transition period. Always assuming that the deal is approved by Parliament.

Scottish products will require a lot of paperwork, the NI won't.

[CloudSquall]

Is this true? Will there be export tariffs imposed on scotch whisky but not Northern Irish?

Yes.

England got what it wanted, Wales got what it wanted, Northern Ireland got the concessions it needed, and Scotland got shafted yet again.

But hey, according to the unionists on here, it's all about Wallace...

[Ozyhibby]

I’m a bit lost with it all to be honest.

Does the ‘new’ deal re NI replace the backstop so therefore will only kick in if the trade deal talks don’t succeed in time?

In other words are we still arguing over the insurance policy?

It gets rid of the back stop and goes for a more permanent alignment with the EU. This is not dependant on trade talks at all. It’s permanent and begins on brexit day. In theory NI could get out of it but there is no way the nationalist would do that.
This is a great deal for nationalism in Ireland. Every new piece of legislation in the UK or EU will move NI further away from the UK and closer to Dublin.


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[Moulin Yarns]

Lord Adonis tells the truth.

It looks to me overwhelmingly likely that Scotland & Northern Ireland will leave the United Kingdom if this deal passes

[weecounty hibby]

Lord Adonis tells the truth.

It looks to me overwhelmingly likely that Scotland & Northern Ireland will leave the United Kingdom if this deal passes
Fingers crossed!!

[Ozyhibby]

Lord Adonis tells the truth.

It looks to me overwhelmingly likely that Scotland & Northern Ireland will leave the United Kingdom if this deal passes

[emoji1696]


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[RyeSloan]

It gets rid of the back stop and goes for a more permanent alignment with the EU. This is not dependant on trade talks at all. It’s permanent and begins on brexit day. In theory NI could get out of it but there is no way the nationalist would do that.
This is a great deal for nationalism in Ireland. Every new piece of legislation in the UK or EU will move NI further away from the UK and closer to Dublin.


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So transition period is dust as well?

OK cool, I might have time to read a bit more about it tomorrow but then again I might just wait until after Saturday as it could all end up in the bin anyway so could save myself the bother!

[Callum_62]

Labour MP Ronnie Campbell who voted against May's deal 3 Times will vote for the PMs deal

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[grunt]

https://www.facebook.com/374151396735323/posts/546736192810175?sfns=mo.

[cabbageandribs1875]

Lord Adonis tells the truth.

It looks to me overwhelmingly likely that Scotland & Northern Ireland will leave the United Kingdom if this deal passes




mon the deal

[cabbageandribs1875]

Yes.

England got what it wanted, Wales got what it wanted, Northern Ireland got the concessions it needed, and Scotland got shafted yet again.

But hey, according to the unionists on here, it's all about Wallace...



t'was quite cringey reading someone coming out with that p@sh :agree:

[SHODAN]

Feels like the night before the ****in' referendum again.

[Hibrandenburg]

That is what will be thrashed out during the transition period. Always assuming that the deal is approved by Parliament.

Scottish products will require a lot of paperwork, the NI won't.

So all that money we paid in tariffs to the EU was just about saving on paperwork. If the UK gets tariff free trade with the EU, then just watch the EU disintegrate.

[cabbageandribs1875]

first time i've watched that QT for several months, was good watching it without anti-snp p@sh from the audience, well done Leicester

[Callum_62]

I reckon he might just eek it through

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[cabbageandribs1875]

https://www.facebook.com/374151396735323/posts/546736192810175?sfns=mo.



only read the first comment "
What have we come to that such a man is our prime minster! "


:agree: a classless immoral utter f@d of a man, just like his brother Donald oor the Pond

[cabbageandribs1875]

https://scontent.fman2-2.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/72625720_2516428061778955_4463273535183257600_n.jp g?_nc_cat=107&_nc_oc=AQl_MtkyctL1OHnnsisVR8ihO9XoyiTVJOcjewkUnOi kZF7yJLvIWv7gxTw1_jcDJxU&_nc_ht=scontent.fman2-2.fna&oh=7bd99afabcb30cfc950a88ce1028fd68&oe=5E335E75

[The Harp Awakes]

Lord Adonis tells the truth.

It looks to me overwhelmingly likely that Scotland & Northern Ireland will leave the United Kingdom if this deal passes

A fair assumption and I think Boris and his chums in the ERG know that well. Many of them will be happy to offload Scotland and NI as they consider us expendable.

[cabbageandribs1875]

from the daily mail down south, Tory Spartans ?

https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2019/10/17/18/19844292-7582705-This_is_how_Boris_Johnson_could_win_over_enough_MP s_to_get_his_d-a-45_1571334114576.jpg

[marinello59]

Labour MP Ronnie Campbell who voted against May's deal 3 Times will vote for the PMs deal

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Forget the DUP. It’s rebel Labour MPs that Johnson will be looking to in order for his deal to be passed.

[Fife-Hibee]

from the daily mail down south, Tory Spartans ?

https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2019/10/17/18/19844292-7582705-This_is_how_Boris_Johnson_could_win_over_enough_MP s_to_get_his_d-a-45_1571334114576.jpg

Is that 1 Lib Dem Jo Swinson?

[Scorrie]

Forget the DUP. It’s rebel Labour MPs that Johnson will be looking to in order for his deal to be passed.

Could be but that means labour MOs voting for a deal to make workers conditions worse and promoting further deregulation of working conditions. Remind me what the Labour Party were set up to do?

[puff the dragon]

For a moment forget about the opinions of the noisy fanatics like hardcore remainers, SNP activists and corbynites.

the rest of us (I.e. 90% of the uk population):
* are sick of the uncertainty to their jobs and business.
* are sick of seeing elected officials pandering to the extreme.
* don’t want to rerun the referendum - it’s done, leave won, MP’s should be getting on with it.
* don’t want this going on any longer than the end of this month.

take a look at all the papers this morning - telling MPs to just back the deal. It’s a water shed moment - leave labour MPs will back it and know they can now as it has public support.

boris landslide majority is inevitable either way now - he delivered what he said he would and is getting brexit done. If it doesn’t happen it is no longer his fault. The other parties are in damage limitation mode now as:
* Boris is keeping all Tory seats currently held.
* All marginal seats where the tories are within 10% of either labour or the SNP are turning blue.
* Lib Dem’s will hoover up some marginals where they battle with labour and the SNP.

2nd referendums and no deal votes are arguments for the minority of noisy fanatics, the majority of the country will just be glad we finally have someone we can vote for who will act and get things done. Boris has smashed it - FOR THE WHOLE UK!

[Callum_62]

For a moment forget about the opinions of the noisy fanatics like hardcore remainers, SNP activists and corbynites.

the rest of us (I.e. 90% of the uk population):
* are sick of the uncertainty to their jobs and business.
Boris has smashed it - FOR THE WHOLE UK!

Too true mate - atleast if this deal passes with a near 7% drop in gdp, there won't be uncertainty for many workers and businesses... It will be a certainty of losing jobs and closing shop [emoji108]

This deal is shocking particularly for Scotland. I'd be interested to hear your thought on how he has smashed it for Scotland (unless you are literally talking about the economy?)

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[Mon Dieu4]

* All marginal seats where the tories are within 10% of either labour or the SNP are turning blue.


Yet every opinion poll taken over the last 6 months or so clearly state that the SNP will make gains in Scotland while the Tories will lose 10 or so seats, Davidson was their ace in the hole and now they don't even have that

[Pretty Boy]

LONG POST ALERT!!

Myself, along with my good lady, and no doubt thousands of others of a similar disposition, are off for a long weekend tomorrow to warmer sunnier climes in Portugal. It got me thinking. Just what on a personal basis I can do now on an unhindered basis, and currently take for granted, against what I perceive I won’t be able to do after Brexit.

1. Won’t have to apply for or pay for a Visa or similar country entry document.
2. Waltz through passport control without any 3rd degree questioning.
3. Use my mobile phone and tablet as much as I want, within my own contract limits, without worrying about roaming charges.
4. Bring back an unlimited amount of excisable alcohol and tobacco products as long as I can cram them in my case.
5. Longingly look at my EHIC card, and worryingly, hope I maybe have a minor accident whilst away (I don’t really but we do have form!!🤪) and take advantage of free emergency health care under the EHIC scheme.
6. Know that I can freely hire a car (see 8 below), should I wish, without having to have some sort of international permit to let me do so.
7. Maybe avail myself of a wee part time bar job without the need to jump through hoops to follow employment rules. Well, maybe not this one but you get where I’m coming from - yeah? 😃
8. Could even jump over to Spain for a wee visit and nobody will stop me or bat an eyelid as to where I’m from within the EU.
9. Know that because I’ll be returning before 31st October, my internal EU flight will still fly under current reciprocity rules for flights between EU & U.K.
10. And finally, it’s not really Brexit related!!, but the weather is almost guaranteed to be better than in the U.K.

I’ve only used this (#10) because I thought having 10 good personal reasons was an ideal way to highlight why Brexit is NOT a “good deal” for everyone.

As well as the above, we apparently no longer have a requirement for all the existing trade deals negotiated under the EU banner, extended fishing waters, agricultural policy subsidies, EU funding for research projects, etc, that we’ve enjoyed for the last 40 years or so. Why is the country inflicting this self harm on itself? I still find it incomprehensible and certainly cannot “celebrate” today’s so called momentous events. 😩😩

A sobering thought. 😏😡😭

It basically boils down to a small minded Trumpesque 'make Britain great again' mentality.

People who genuinely seem to believe we can turn the clock back to sometime between 1850 and 1960 and rebuild an empire. Of course most of these people have no idea what life was actually like for 'ordinary, Working people' in that period. Clue - it wasn't good.

[Pretty Boy]

I've seen the future. :greengrin

I love how this turned out to be the most accurate post on the thread in a matter of only a few hours.

[JimBHibees]

For a moment forget about the opinions of the noisy fanatics like hardcore remainers, SNP activists and corbynites.

the rest of us (I.e. 90% of the uk population):
* are sick of the uncertainty to their jobs and business.
* are sick of seeing elected officials pandering to the extreme.
* don’t want to rerun the referendum - it’s done, leave won, MP’s should be getting on with it.
* don’t want this going on any longer than the end of this month.

take a look at all the papers this morning - telling MPs to just back the deal. It’s a water shed moment - leave labour MPs will back it and know they can now as it has public support.

boris landslide majority is inevitable either way now - he delivered what he said he would and is getting brexit done. If it doesn’t happen it is no longer his fault. The other parties are in damage limitation mode now as:
* Boris is keeping all Tory seats currently held.
* All marginal seats where the tories are within 10% of either labour or the SNP are turning blue.
* Lib Dem’s will hoover up some marginals where they battle with labour and the SNP.

2nd referendums and no deal votes are arguments for the minority of noisy fanatics, the majority of the country will just be glad we finally have someone we can vote for who will act and get things done. Boris has smashed it - FOR THE WHOLE UK!

Boris has smashed it by getting a worse deal than May which will likely erode workers rights and lose thousands of jobs. :rolleyes: Actually think he would win a general election not despite of the extremes but because of the extreme English nationalist vote and primarily because of uneducated morons who believe the Daily Heil and express banner headlines.

[Pretty Boy]

For a moment forget about the opinions of the noisy fanatics like hardcore remainers, SNP activists and corbynites.

the rest of us (I.e. 90% of the uk population):
* are sick of the uncertainty to their jobs and business.
* are sick of seeing elected officials pandering to the extreme.
* don’t want to rerun the referendum - it’s done, leave won, MP’s should be getting on with it.
* don’t want this going on any longer than the end of this month.

take a look at all the papers this morning - telling MPs to just back the deal. It’s a water shed moment - leave labour MPs will back it and know they can now as it has public support.

boris landslide majority is inevitable either way now - he delivered what he said he would and is getting brexit done. If it doesn’t happen it is no longer his fault. The other parties are in damage limitation mode now as:
* Boris is keeping all Tory seats currently held.
* All marginal seats where the tories are within 10% of either labour or the SNP are turning blue.
* Lib Dem’s will hoover up some marginals where they battle with labour and the SNP.

2nd referendums and no deal votes are arguments for the minority of noisy fanatics, the majority of the country will just be glad we finally have someone we can vote for who will act and get things done. Boris has smashed it - FOR THE WHOLE UK!

The FT published a poll this morning from 'What Britain thinks' which shows support for remain at 53% and leave at 47% when asked 'should the UK remain in or leave the EU?' This is well outside the accepted margin for error. They also point out leave has not held a lead in any of the last 50 polls published by any polling company. With slightly different questioning including the line 'If there was a 2nd referendum, how would you vote',leave has not held a lead since March 2018.

That information alone throws doubt on pretty much every assertion you make.

[RyeSloan]

Too true mate - atleast if this deal passes with a near 7% drop in gdp, there won't be uncertainty for many workers and businesses... It will be a certainty of losing jobs and closing shop [emoji108]

This deal is shocking particularly for Scotland. I'd be interested to hear your thought on how he has smashed it for Scotland (unless you are literally talking about the economy?)

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If this deal passes I’d be happy to bet anything on the fact that there will not be a 7% drop in GDP.

Such figures sound scary but are not based in reality and will make the most ardent and vocal remainers that have been banding nonsense figures like that about look extremely silly when that are shown up for what they were, total and utter nonsense.

[Callum_62]

If this deal passes I’d be happy to bet anything on the fact that there will not be a 7% drop in GDP.

Such figures sound scary but are not based in reality and will make the most ardent and vocal remainers that have been banding nonsense figures like that about look extremely silly when that are shown up for what they were, total and utter nonsense.Let's say they are even half true - that will show the remainers!

Ofcourse it seems like the Govt is not going to issue impact assemements intime for the vote- no idea why that would be.

Although we could just take the govts figures from last year as a fair estimate

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/business/2019/oct/17/uk-lost-gdp-growth-brexit-deal-passed-official-estimates

Are the tory Govt amongst your most ardent and vocal remainers?
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[RyeSloan]

Let's say they are even half true - that will show the remainers!

Ofcourse it seems like the Govt is not going to issue impact assemements intime for the vote- no idea why that would be.

Although we could just take the govts figures from last year as a fair estimate

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/business/2019/oct/17/uk-lost-gdp-growth-brexit-deal-passed-official-estimates

Are the tory Govt amongst your most ardent and vocal remainers?
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Firstly GDP being lower by 6.7% in 15 years is NOT a drop in GDP of 7%. One is lowered growth rates over a long period the other is a recession larger than that caused by the financial crises.

Secondly anyone who gives any credence to any 15 year forecast of a countries GDP in 15 years time, from any source, under any circumstances is bonkers.



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[lapsedhibee]

For a moment forget about the opinions of the noisy fanatics like hardcore remainers, SNP activists and corbynites.

the rest of us (I.e. 90% of the uk population):
* are sick of the uncertainty to their jobs and business.
* are sick of seeing elected officials pandering to the extreme.
* don’t want to rerun the referendum - it’s done, leave won, MP’s should be getting on with it.
* don’t want this going on any longer than the end of this month.

take a look at all the papers this morning - telling MPs to just back the deal. It’s a water shed moment - leave labour MPs will back it and know they can now as it has public support.

boris landslide majority is inevitable either way now - he delivered what he said he would and is getting brexit done. If it doesn’t happen it is no longer his fault. The other parties are in damage limitation mode now as:
* Boris is keeping all Tory seats currently held.
* All marginal seats where the tories are within 10% of either labour or the SNP are turning blue.
* Lib Dem’s will hoover up some marginals where they battle with labour and the SNP.

2nd referendums and no deal votes are arguments for the minority of noisy fanatics, the majority of the country will just be glad we finally have someone we can vote for who will act and get things done. Boris has smashed it - FOR THE WHOLE UK!
Thanks for that Boris.
PS Well done for taking the lead from America Johnson and selling your allies out. Unmatched wisdom and true leadership.

[Callum_62]

Firstly GDP being lower by 6.7% in 15 years is NOT a drop in GDP of 7%. One is lowered growth rates over a long period the other is a recession larger than that caused by the financial crises.

Secondly anyone who gives any credence to any 15 year forecast of a countries GDP in 15 years time, from any source, under any circumstances is bonkers.



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A gdp drop isn't the same as gdp being lower?

So you agree the tory Govt are bonkers - I mean they are they ones who ordered the analysis yes?

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[Moulin Yarns]

Make your mind up time.

"I'm sure on this one there'll be a three-line whip"
Shadow Chancellor @johnmcdonnellMP tells #BBCBreakfast Labour MPs cannot support the PM's new #BrexitDeal https://t.co/Xq3iVgyl0q


Nick Eardley
Understand Labour MPs will not lose whip if they back PM's deal on Saturday

[Moulin Yarns]

The FT published a poll this morning from 'What Britain thinks' which shows support for remain at 53% and leave at 47% when asked 'should the UK remain in or leave the EU?' This is well outside the accepted margin for error. They also point out leave has not held a lead in any of the last 50 polls published by any polling company. With slightly different questioning including the line 'If there was a 2nd referendum, how would you vote',leave has not held a lead since March 2018.

That information alone throws doubt on pretty much every assertion you make.

Puff by name, Puff by nature.

I wonder where Puff has been hiding all this time? 🤔

[Callum_62]

Make your mind up time.

"I'm sure on this one there'll be a three-line whip"
Shadow Chancellor @johnmcdonnellMP tells #BBCBreakfast Labour MPs cannot support the PM's new #BrexitDeal https://t.co/Xq3iVgyl0q


Nick Eardley
Understand Labour MPs will not lose whip if they back PM's deal on SaturdayOne quote is from the shadow chancellor and other from a journalist

I know who should hold more credance on this topic... But it's labour so who blooming knows

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[RyeSloan]

A gdp drop isn't the same as gdp being lower?

So you agree the tory Govt are bonkers - I mean they are they ones who ordered the analysis yes?

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Of course it’s not.

A statement saying saying something will drop by 7% means you expect it to go down.

A statement saying something will be 6.7% lower than what in might have been in 15 years is saying that it could still be higher just not as high as it might have been.

One means something will definitively go down, in other words a crushing recession. The other that expansion may be slower than what might have been expected.

Anyway the analysis you are quoting actually out the impact of May’s deal at less than 3% over the 15 years and has the following statement:


This analysis is not an economic forecast for the UK economy. In particular:
• It only considers the potential economic impacts that are specific to EU exit. Leaving the EU is just one of many factors that will influence the UK's economic performance in the long run. Other factors such as the rise of global value chains, the increasing importance of services trade, technological developments, and global demographics are held constant;
• The analysis does not make judgements about any future UK Government policy decisions or responses; and
• The estimates show the relative impacts of different trading arrangements in the long term and do not estimate the absolute increase or decrease in economic output compared to today. The results therefore show the broad relative impacts of the different scenarios, and in all scenarios the economy would be expected to grow.
No modelling can completely capture the complex ways in which the UK economy could be affected by exiting the EU, particularly given the unprecedented circumstances of the UK's departure. While the analysis draws on a robust set of tools and evidence, there is an inherent uncertainty around this type of economic analysis. The results are therefore presented as ranges, and should be interpreted with caution.


So it’s not a holistic economic forecast, doesn’t account for anything like all factors, clearly calls out that this type of exercise has ‘inherent uncertainty’ and should be treated with caution.

So as I said anyone who then takes the values and bases any solid belief on them is daft.

For example go have a look at the analysis of the benefits of the heralded single market on GDP in the EU. Even looking backwards it’s very difficult for economists to ascertain the level of benefit (they think it’s helped GDP but can’t accurately quantify it).

Ergo 15 year forecasts built off the back off assumptions that only factor in a fraction of the forces that influence such things are not worth the paper they are written on. And yes that includes anything from the UK government.

[mjhibby]

The FT published a poll this morning from 'What Britain thinks' which shows support for remain at 53% and leave at 47% when asked 'should the UK remain in or leave the EU?' This is well outside the accepted margin for error. They also point out leave has not held a lead in any of the last 50 polls published by any polling company. With slightly different questioning including the line 'If there was a 2nd referendum, how would you vote',leave has not held a lead since March 2018.

That information alone throws doubt on pretty much every assertion you make.

Get the deal through then and have the referendum on it. Everybody knows what they are voting for and we abide by the result. Johnson knows he will lose the referendum as all their private polls will be telling him that. The country has clearly had enough but has changed its mind. Referendum on the bill settles it. End of.

[Callum_62]

Of course it’s not.

A statement saying saying something will drop by 7% means you expect it to go down.

A statement saying something will be 6.7% lower than what in might have been in 15 years is saying that it could still be higher just not as high as it might have been.

One means something will definitively go down, in other words a crushing recession. The other that expansion may be slower than what might have been expected.

Anyway the analysis you are quoting actually out the impact of May’s deal at less than 3% over the 15 years and has the following statement:


This analysis is not an economic forecast for the UK economy. In particular:
• It only considers the potential economic impacts that are specific to EU exit. Leaving the EU is just one of many factors that will influence the UK's economic performance in the long run. Other factors such as the rise of global value chains, the increasing importance of services trade, technological developments, and global demographics are held constant;
• The analysis does not make judgements about any future UK Government policy decisions or responses; and
• The estimates show the relative impacts of different trading arrangements in the long term and do not estimate the absolute increase or decrease in economic output compared to today. The results therefore show the broad relative impacts of the different scenarios, and in all scenarios the economy would be expected to grow.
No modelling can completely capture the complex ways in which the UK economy could be affected by exiting the EU, particularly given the unprecedented circumstances of the UK's departure. While the analysis draws on a robust set of tools and evidence, there is an inherent uncertainty around this type of economic analysis. The results are therefore presented as ranges, and should be interpreted with caution.


So it’s not a holistic economic forecast, doesn’t account for anything like all factors, clearly calls out that this type of exercise has ‘inherent uncertainty’ and should be treated with caution.

So as I said anyone who then takes the values and bases any solid belief on them is daft.

For example go have a look at the analysis of the benefits of the heralded single market on GDP in the EU. Even looking backwards it’s very difficult for economists to ascertain the level of benefit (they think it’s helped GDP but can’t accurately quantify it).

Ergo 15 year forecasts built off the back off assumptions that only factor in a fraction of the forces that influence such things are not worth the paper they are written on. And yes that includes anything from the UK government.OK good, you admit commissioning the forecasts was an absolute waste of time by the tory govt

Why did they do it then?

We are at the stage where every bad forecast is met with the unreliability card - but what else do we have to go on here?

All analysis says every brexit is economically bad - and the one we are getting at the hard end is the worst

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[mjhibby]

For a moment forget about the opinions of the noisy fanatics like hardcore remainers, SNP activists and corbynites.

the rest of us (I.e. 90% of the uk population):
* are sick of the uncertainty to their jobs and business.
* are sick of seeing elected officials pandering to the extreme.
* don’t want to rerun the referendum - it’s done, leave won, MP’s should be getting on with it.
* don’t want this going on any longer than the end of this month.

take a look at all the papers this morning - telling MPs to just back the deal. It’s a water shed moment - leave labour MPs will back it and know they can now as it has public support.

boris landslide majority is inevitable either way now - he delivered what he said he would and is getting brexit done. If it doesn’t happen it is no longer his fault. The other parties are in damage limitation mode now as:
* Boris is keeping all Tory seats currently held.
* All marginal seats where the tories are within 10% of either labour or the SNP are turning blue.
* Lib Dem’s will hoover up some marginals where they battle with labour and the SNP.

2nd referendums and no deal votes are arguments for the minority of noisy fanatics, the majority of the country will just be glad we finally have someone we can vote for who will act and get things done. Boris has smashed it - FOR THE WHOLE UK!

Is that you Dominic. Dream on mate. I think the same as in 2017 we are in for a far different result from what the polls are showing. It's the labour voters who have said they are undecided who will decide the election. Will they really go en masse to Johnson. I doubt it and with a big swing to remain across the country the Tories know they will lose plenty seats especially in London. Too many folk reading headlines and not doing any research.

[grunt]

https://twitter.com/ByDonkeys/status/1185087759448449024

[McSwanky]

For a moment forget about the opinions of the noisy fanatics like hardcore remainers, SNP activists and corbynites.

the rest of us (I.e. 90% of the uk population):
* are sick of the uncertainty to their jobs and business.
* are sick of seeing elected officials pandering to the extreme.
* don’t want to rerun the referendum - it’s done, leave won, MP’s should be getting on with it.
* don’t want this going on any longer than the end of this month.

take a look at all the papers this morning - telling MPs to just back the deal. It’s a water shed moment - leave labour MPs will back it and know they can now as it has public support.

boris landslide majority is inevitable either way now - he delivered what he said he would and is getting brexit done. If it doesn’t happen it is no longer his fault. The other parties are in damage limitation mode now as:
* Boris is keeping all Tory seats currently held.
* All marginal seats where the tories are within 10% of either labour or the SNP are turning blue.
* Lib Dem’s will hoover up some marginals where they battle with labour and the SNP.

2nd referendums and no deal votes are arguments for the minority of noisy fanatics, the majority of the country will just be glad we finally have someone we can vote for who will act and get things done. Boris has smashed it - FOR THE WHOLE UK!

Mate, you've been sucked in by the spin. The whole "don't want this going on any longer than the end of the month" is not something that people have collectively decided on, it's been peddled in the papers and media for a good wee while now, and it's become some sort of an accepted truth. Personally I can see no reason for Parliament to vote for this deal when it's 96% the same as May's deal which was roundly punted.

I'd be interested to see your evidence to back up the last two asterisked points, i.e. the Tories taking all marginals from Labour and SNP and the Lib Dems hoovering up the others. Where are you getting this from, because I see the two as more than slightly contradictory?

When you talk about 'noisy fanatics,' is your tongue firmly in your cheek?

The way I see it, Boris and his team are only interested in political manoeuvring to gain themselves an advantage in any upcoming GE. Brexit goes through = BORIS IS A GENIUS. Voted down on Saturday = SURRENDER MONKEYS FOIL THE WILL OF THE PEOPLE AGAIN. 2nd Referendum = I DID MY BEST TO RESPECT DEMOCRACY, BUT THESE IDIOTS MADE ME DO IT. Etc. Etc.

It's so sad to see the state of the country now, and it's all down to the Tories triggering this whole sorry mess with Cameron's **** up of a referendum. Shame on him. And them.

[RyeSloan]

OK good, you admit commissioning the forecasts was an absolute waste of time by the tory govt

Why did they do it then?

We are at the stage where every bad forecast is met with the unreliability card - but what else do we have to go on here?

All analysis says every brexit is economically bad - and the one we are getting at the hard end is the worst

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You are asking me why the government did something? How would I know? What they are not designed to be used for is exactly what you have done with them...taken as some sort of fact then misrepresented and clearly also misunderstood.

As I’ve pointed out the publication itself says the numbers are not an economic forecast and that any numbers need treated with caution. That’s why they are unreliable, they say so themselves.

Sadly I now have some work to do so can’t carry this chat on (fun though it has been [emoji57]).

[Hibbyradge]

Why are there no positive economic forecasts?

[Callum_62]

Why are there no positive economic forecasts?Because, erm, they would be unreliable and, erm, remoaners

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[grunt]

Why are there no positive economic forecasts?Well Dominic Raab this morning forecast a positive economic future for NI. Dominic Raab hails a “cracking deal” for Northern Ireland because it will keep “frictionless access to the single market”.

Quite.

[Pretty Boy]

Well Dominic Raab this morning forecast a positive economic future for NI. Dominic Raab hails a “cracking deal” for Northern Ireland because it will keep “frictionless access to the single market”.

Quite.

It's almost as if being part of a union of European nations with a single market and customs union is a good idea......

[lapsedhibee]

Well Dominic Raab this morning forecast a positive economic future for NI. Dominic Raab hails a “cracking deal” for Northern Ireland because it will keep “frictionless access to the single market”.

Quite.

Did he really say that? He must shirley be the thickest person ever to make foreign secretary.

[G B Young]

For a moment forget about the opinions of the noisy fanatics like hardcore remainers, SNP activists and corbynites.

the rest of us (I.e. 90% of the uk population):
* are sick of the uncertainty to their jobs and business.
* are sick of seeing elected officials pandering to the extreme.
* don’t want to rerun the referendum - it’s done, leave won, MP’s should be getting on with it.
* don’t want this going on any longer than the end of this month.

take a look at all the papers this morning - telling MPs to just back the deal. It’s a water shed moment - leave labour MPs will back it and know they can now as it has public support.

boris landslide majority is inevitable either way now - he delivered what he said he would and is getting brexit done. If it doesn’t happen it is no longer his fault. The other parties are in damage limitation mode now as:
* Boris is keeping all Tory seats currently held.
* All marginal seats where the tories are within 10% of either labour or the SNP are turning blue.
* Lib Dem’s will hoover up some marginals where they battle with labour and the SNP.

2nd referendums and no deal votes are arguments for the minority of noisy fanatics, the majority of the country will just be glad we finally have someone we can vote for who will act and get things done. Boris has smashed it - FOR THE WHOLE UK!

Even the Guardian (which couldn't be more anti-Johnson) is urging MPs just to get this done:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/17/boris-johnson-deal-mps-dup-brexit-britain

As you say, Johnson has defied all expectations. The EU insisted the Withdrawal Agreement couldn't be re-opened, that the May deal was the only deal and that the Irish backstop was set in stone. He insisted he could overcome all that and he has. His opponents accused him of making no effort to secure a deal yet he's secured one.

No Deal can now be taken off the table, but now we see his opponents' true colours laid bare. It's not No Deal they're determined to avoid, it's any deal at all - or at least any deal brokered by a Tory PM. As the Guardian says, Corbyn's opposition bears no scrutiny now. It's about little more than embarrassing Johnson. Pathetic.

[Jack]

Why are there no positive economic forecasts?

You mean some sort of Puff piece?

[Hibbyradge]

Even the Guardian (which couldn't be more anti-Johnson) is urging MPs just to get this done:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/17/boris-johnson-deal-mps-dup-brexit-britain

As you say, Johnson has defied all expectations. The EU insisted the Withdrawal Agreement couldn't be re-opened, that the May deal was the only deal and that the Irish backstop was set in stone. He insisted he could overcome all that and he has. His opponents accused him of making no effort to secure a deal yet he's secured one.

No Deal can now be taken off the table, but now we see his opponents' true colours laid bare. It's not No Deal they're determined to avoid, it's any deal at all - or at least any deal brokered by a Tory PM. As the Guardian says, Corbyn's opposition bears no scrutiny now. It's about little more than embarrassing Johnson. Pathetic.

Why are you pretending to be surprised?

Labour has consistently said that it will oppose any Tory deal that is bad for the country. And rightly so.

The thing is, it's more or less a no deal for everyone bar NI.

[Callum_62]

Even the Guardian (which couldn't be more anti-Johnson) is urging MPs just to get this done:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/17/boris-johnson-deal-mps-dup-brexit-britain

As you say, Johnson has defied all expectations. The EU insisted the Withdrawal Agreement couldn't be re-opened, that the May deal was the only deal and that the Irish backstop was set in stone. He insisted he could overcome all that and he has. His opponents accused him of making no effort to secure a deal yet he's secured one.

No Deal can now be taken off the table, but now we see his opponents' true colours laid bare. It's not No Deal they're determined to avoid, it's any deal at all - or at least any deal brokered by a Tory PM. As the Guardian says, Corbyn's opposition bears no scrutiny now. It's about little more than embarrassing Johnson. Pathetic.Uh huh [emoji15]

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[Bristolhibby]

Even the Guardian (which couldn't be more anti-Johnson) is urging MPs just to get this done:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/17/boris-johnson-deal-mps-dup-brexit-britain

As you say, Johnson has defied all expectations. The EU insisted the Withdrawal Agreement couldn't be re-opened, that the May deal was the only deal and that the Irish backstop was set in stone. He insisted he could overcome all that and he has. His opponents accused him of making no effort to secure a deal yet he's secured one.

No Deal can now be taken off the table, but now we see his opponents' true colours laid bare. It's not No Deal they're determined to avoid, it's any deal at all - or at least any deal brokered by a Tory PM. As the Guardian says, Corbyn's opposition bears no scrutiny now. It's about little more than embarrassing Johnson. Pathetic.

Thing is, no deal can be back on the table. This “deal” just gives us two years transition. The actual deal, (the trade and future relationship deal), could in effect take us to no deal type situation.

Does anyone trust a Tory party with a majority (based on “Getting Brexit done”) will do anything other than what’s good for the Tories?

It has to be defeated tomorrow, or at least get an amendment passed taking it back to the people in a straight Johnston’s deal v revoke.

J

[Hibbyradge]

Thing is, no deal can be back on the table. This “deal” just gives us two years transition. The actual deal, (the trade and future relationship deal), could in effect take us to no deal type situation.

Does anyone trust a Tory party with a majority (based on “Getting Brexit done”) will do anything other than what’s good for the Tories?

It has to be defeated tomorrow, or at least get an amendment passed taking it back to the people in a straight Johnston’s deal v revoke.

J

I thought it was 1 year's transition?

[cabbageandribs1875]

Is that 1 Lib Dem Jo Swinson?


lol, i'm thinking maybe one of their new-found members, maybe chuka umunna ?

[Ozyhibby]

Even the Guardian (which couldn't be more anti-Johnson) is urging MPs just to get this done:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/17/boris-johnson-deal-mps-dup-brexit-britain

As you say, Johnson has defied all expectations. The EU insisted the Withdrawal Agreement couldn't be re-opened, that the May deal was the only deal and that the Irish backstop was set in stone. He insisted he could overcome all that and he has. His opponents accused him of making no effort to secure a deal yet he's secured one.

No Deal can now be taken off the table, but now we see his opponents' true colours laid bare. It's not No Deal they're determined to avoid, it's any deal at all - or at least any deal brokered by a Tory PM. As the Guardian says, Corbyn's opposition bears no scrutiny now. It's about little more than embarrassing Johnson. Pathetic.

He signed a deal that gives NI to the EU. Theresa May could have got that deal. [emoji23]
Your right about a GE though. Johnson gets this through on Saturday and he wins a massive majority (50/60 seats) in the GE.


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[Mr Grieves]

I thought it was 1 year's transition?

14 months, were we are still part of the EU but not involved in any decision making. In that time, the UK government and the EU will attempt to negotiate a free trade agreement(reminder that the withdrawal agreement was meant to be the easy part!)If there's no agreement the transition period can be extended, or there will be no deal for great britain while the special provisions for Northern Ireland would kick in.

This is not the end of no deal brexit. The thought of a tory majority, with this deal, is terrifying.

[Hibrandenburg]

Even the Guardian (which couldn't be more anti-Johnson) is urging MPs just to get this done:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/17/boris-johnson-deal-mps-dup-brexit-britain

As you say, Johnson has defied all expectations. The EU insisted the Withdrawal Agreement couldn't be re-opened, that the May deal was the only deal and that the Irish backstop was set in stone. He insisted he could overcome all that and he has. His opponents accused him of making no effort to secure a deal yet he's secured one.

No Deal can now be taken off the table, but now we see his opponents' true colours laid bare. It's not No Deal they're determined to avoid, it's any deal at all - or at least any deal brokered by a Tory PM. As the Guardian says, Corbyn's opposition bears no scrutiny now. It's about little more than embarrassing Johnson. Pathetic.

.

[Pretty Boy]

Even the Guardian (which couldn't be more anti-Johnson) is urging MPs just to get this done:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/17/boris-johnson-deal-mps-dup-brexit-britain

As you say, Johnson has defied all expectations. The EU insisted the Withdrawal Agreement couldn't be re-opened, that the May deal was the only deal and that the Irish backstop was set in stone. He insisted he could overcome all that and he has. His opponents accused him of making no effort to secure a deal yet he's secured one.

No Deal can now be taken off the table, but now we see his opponents' true colours laid bare. It's not No Deal they're determined to avoid, it's any deal at all - or at least any deal brokered by a Tory PM. As the Guardian says, Corbyn's opposition bears no scrutiny now. It's about little more than embarrassing Johnson. Pathetic.

If I had closed negotiations with someone and then they came back and proposed a deal that was better for me and worse for them then I'd probably be open to restarting talks as well.

This isn't some marvellous bit of statesmanship by Johnson, he hasn't 'overcome' anything. It's taking a bad deal, making it worse and hailing it as a success. People seem to be falling for it as well. For all his faults there is little doubt that Johnson is a master manipulator, people buy into him in a way that is almost cult like.

[southsider]

It basically boils down to a small minded Trumpesque 'make Britain great again' mentality.

People who genuinely seem to believe we can turn the clock back to sometime between 1850 and 1960 and rebuild an empire. Of course most of these people have no idea what life was actually like for 'ordinary, Working people' in that period. Clue - it wasn't good.
The working man in 1918 worked a 59 hour week. The Riot Act was read in
Glasgow after a strike for a 40 hour week.

[Hibernia&Alba]

This is just bizarre. Johnson has tweaked the May deal to a tiny degree; the very same deal he railed against and used to plot against May. Now he says it's fantastic and everyone should support it. The man is incorrigible. Even the DUP can see it's essentially the same deal as Teresa May failed with, and will vote accordingly. What Johnson has in his favour is the imminent Brexit deadline date, which will make some MPs afraid to vote against it, as they want to avoid the possibility of no deal at this very late stage.

It looks like tomorrow's vote will be very tight, with the odds slightly against Johnson. If he loses the vote, the Benn Act says he must request an extension, but the EU seem to be saying they wouldn't grant one. Everything is up for grabs here.

[Hibbyradge]

This is just bizarre. Johnson has tweaked the May deal to a tiny degree; the very same deal he railed against and used to plot against May. Now he says it's fantastic and everyone should support it. The man is incorrigible. Even the DUP can see it's essentially the same deal as Teresa May failed with, and will vote accordingly. What Johnson has in his favour is the imminent Brexit deadline date, which will make some MPs afraid to vote against it, as they want to avoid the possibility of no deal at this very late stage.

It looks like tomorrow's vote will be very tight, with the odds slightly against Johnson. If he loses the vote, the Benn Act says he must request an extension, but the EU seem to be saying they wouldn't grant one. Everything is up for grabs here.

They definitely will grant an extension if it's requested.

[lapsedhibee]

This is just bizarre. Johnson has tweaked the May deal to a tiny degree...
Different in one important respect: GB can leave without a deal at the end of the transition period.

[Cataplana]

The number one question that has to be answered now is why should Northern Ireland benefit from free trade with the EU, when the rest of the Union doesn't?

[Hibernia&Alba]

They definitely will grant an extension if it's requested.

Let's hope so. But we must bear in mind that 27 EU countries have now TWICE agreed a deal; if Westminster again says 'no thanks', there has to be a chance the EU will say enough is enough, just go.

[Hibbyradge]

Different in one important respect: GB can leave without a deal at the end of the transition period.

Which is why the ERG are supporting it.

[Hibernia&Alba]

Which is why the ERG are supporting it.

Some of them might not, influenced by the DUP opposition. Looks like the vote will be very close.

[weecounty hibby]

DUP have reiterated that they won't back Johnson on the deal

[wpj]

https://scontent.fman2-2.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/72625720_2516428061778955_4463273535183257600_n.jp g?_nc_cat=107&_nc_oc=AQl_MtkyctL1OHnnsisVR8ihO9XoyiTVJOcjewkUnOi kZF7yJLvIWv7gxTw1_jcDJxU&_nc_ht=scontent.fman2-2.fna&oh=7bd99afabcb30cfc950a88ce1028fd68&oe=5E335E75

English Begbie. Probably has boris on his back

[Cataplana]

English Begbie. Probably has boris on his back

Or wishes he did.

[Hibernia&Alba]

Or wishes he did.

:hilarious

[Mr Grieves]

https://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2019/10/18/johnson-s-deal-the-reality-of-what-is-being-proposed

[Killiehibbie]

If I had closed negotiations with someone and then they came back and proposed a deal that was better for me and worse for them then I'd probably be open to restarting talks as well.

This isn't some marvellous bit of statesmanship by Johnson, he hasn't 'overcome' anything. It's taking a bad deal, making it worse and hailing it as a success. People seem to be falling for it as well. For all his faults there is little doubt that Johnson is a master manipulator, people buy into him in a way that is almost cult like.


Not quite but very close.

[danhibees1875]

Why are there no positive economic forecasts?

I'm by no means in favour of Brexit, and I'll happily be told why I'm likely picking this up wrong, but I'm surprised nothing has been made of the US tarrif on EU imports which is going to have a huge impact on the scottish whisky industry.

Surely outwith the EU, we'll be able to strike a better deal for our US whisky exports (20% of whisky sales apparently) without being tangled in some EU Vs US tarrif war. :dunno:

Not really a "forecast" like you asked, but maybe something.

[lapsedhibee]

I'm by no means in favour of Brexit, and I'll happily be told why I'm likely picking this up wrong, but I'm surprised nothing has been made of the US tarrif on EU imports which is going to have a huge impact on the scottish whisky industry.

Surely outwith the EU, we'll be able to strike a better deal for our US whisky exports (20% of whisky sales apparently) without being tangled in some EU Vs US tarrif war. :dunno:

Not really a "forecast" like you asked, but maybe something.

Course we will. Sunny uplands and that. When it comes to negotiating with the US, we'll hold all the cards.

[Ozyhibby]

I'm by no means in favour of Brexit, and I'll happily be told why I'm likely picking this up wrong, but I'm surprised nothing has been made of the US tarrif on EU imports which is going to have a huge impact on the scottish whisky industry.

Surely outwith the EU, we'll be able to strike a better deal for our US whisky exports (20% of whisky sales apparently) without being tangled in some EU Vs US tarrif war. :dunno:

Not really a "forecast" like you asked, but maybe something.

When it comes to trade deals, size matters. The EU is a big player and when they negotiate, it is as equals with China and the US.
Small economies fight for scraps of the table. The are big bourbon producers in the US who fight hard to keep Whiskey out.


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[Ozyhibby]

Looks like 10 of the Tories who were expelled from the party are voting against because it’s possible to leave with no deal at the end of the transition period which is only one year. If that happens then the deal will fail.


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[Moulin Yarns]

Different in one important respect: GB can leave without a deal at the end of the transition period.

Saw this

EXCLUSIVE: Tory Right-wingers asking Attorney General to confirm UK could crash out "no deal" in a year if no free trade deal struck with EU - full story @joemurphylondon and @nicholascecil https://t.co/DQXTEosHge

[danhibees1875]

When it comes to trade deals, size matters. The EU is a big player and when they negotiate, it is as equals with China and the US.
Small economies fight for scraps of the table. The are big bourbon producers in the US who fight hard to keep Whiskey out.


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Thanks. :aok: Fully agreed with the first point already in general it's a good rule of thumb, and I don't see us getting to the point where all deals are as good as they once were. I just thought there was maybe one sliver of positivity available if the EU and US are going to get tangled up and Trump would be more open to having lower tarrifs for the UK once we leave; even as an egotistical two fingers to the EU.

It's all guess work and I think your second point about bourbon industries could be telling if it comes down to it anyway - I hadn't considered that. :agree:


Is there a wider point of grievance around the EU subsidising Airbus and ultimately causing a fair bit of pain to one of Scotland's biggest exports?

I've not followed it much beyond the headlines until I read an article yesterday, but if Westminster had been playing around with subsidies and put a large chunk of the Scottish economy in jeopardy as a result I think there would be a fair bit of, justified, anger directed at them. Or were the EU doing the right thing and it's generally the US' fault in this instance?

[Ozyhibby]

Thanks. :aok: Fully agreed with the first point already in general it's a good rule of thumb, and I don't see us getting to the point where all deals are as good as they once were. I just thought there was maybe one sliver of positivity available if the EU and US are going to get tangled up and Trump would be more open to having lower tarrifs for the UK once we leave; even as an egotistical two fingers to the EU.

It's all guess work and I think your second point about bourbon industries could be telling if it comes down to it anyway - I hadn't considered that. :agree:


Is there a wider point of grievance around the EU subsidising Airbus and ultimately causing a fair bit of pain to one of Scotland's biggest exports?

I've not followed it much beyond the headlines until I read an article yesterday, but if Westminster had been playing around with subsidies and put a large chunk of the Scottish economy in jeopardy as a result I think there would be a fair bit of, justified, anger directed at them. Or were the EU doing the right thing and it's generally the US' fault in this instance?

There is another case going through the courts just now about the US subsidising Boeing. We are likely to hit them with tariffs in reply.


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[southsider]

There is another case going through the courts just now about the US subsidising Boeing. We are likely to hit them with tariffs in reply.


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Who is we ? Scotland ? UK ? or EU ? Or all or none ? If UK crashes out a trade war will be needed like a hole in the head.

[Ozyhibby]

Who is we ? Scotland ? UK ? or EU ? Or all or none ? If UK crashes out a trade war will be needed like a hole in the head.

EU


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[southsider]

EU


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So if UK leaves American tariffs will be replaced with EU one’s or will we (Scotland) be hit with both ? London doesn’t give a **** but firms may close and people loose their jobs. Johnston & Trump two cheeks on the same arse.

[Killiehibbie]

So if UK leaves American tariffs will be replaced with EU one’s or will we (Scotland) be hit with both ? London doesn’t give a **** but firms may close and people loose their jobs. Johnston & Trump two cheeks on the same arse.

I would guess existing US tariffs would stand until a new agreement was reached and we get a double whammy with EU tariffs.

[Ozyhibby]

So if UK leaves American tariffs will be replaced with EU one’s or will we (Scotland) be hit with both ? London doesn’t give a **** but firms may close and people loose their jobs. Johnston & Trump two cheeks on the same arse.

We would have both as we wouldn’t have a trade deal with either the US or EU.


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[Ozyhibby]

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1185166530490916872?s=21


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[Since90+2]

FT currently forecasting that Johnson will win the vote by 1 or 2 votes.

*****.

[Cataplana]

FT currently forecasting that Johnson will win the vote by 1 or 2 votes.

*****.

They better be confident that everyone they asked told them the truth. That is too fine a margin to call.

[Since90+2]

They better be confident that everyone they asked told them the truth. That is too fine a margin to call.

Too close for my liking anyway.

[Ozyhibby]

Gauke now backing the deal. Can see the deal getting through now.
Not good for Scotland at all but a great result for Ireland and it moves them closer to re-unification.


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[G B Young]

Brexit deal ruled 'legal' by Court of Session:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-50088993

[Ozyhibby]

Brexit deal ruled 'legal' by Court of Session:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-50088993

I’m glad of that. I’m not in favour of running to the courts when there is parliament available.


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[G B Young]

If I had closed negotiations with someone and then they came back and proposed a deal that was better for me and worse for them then I'd probably be open to restarting talks as well.

This isn't some marvellous bit of statesmanship by Johnson, he hasn't 'overcome' anything. It's taking a bad deal, making it worse and hailing it as a success. People seem to be falling for it as well. For all his faults there is little doubt that Johnson is a master manipulator, people buy into him in a way that is almost cult like.

How is it a worse deal? It seems to be generally accepted that Johnson's deal is all but identical to May's deal with the exception that it gets rid of the Irish backstop. Bearing in mind that this was the issue which so many MPs claimed made the deal unacceptable, you'd assume that by getting rid of it they would now see the deal as a better one? Hopefully that will prove to be the case tomorrow and we can finally make some sort of progress.

[Callum_62]

How is it a worse deal? It seems to be generally accepted that Johnson's deal is all but identical to May's deal with the exception that it gets rid of the Irish backstop. Bearing in mind that this was the issue which so many MPs claimed made the deal unacceptable, you'd assume that by getting rid of it they would now see the deal as a better one? Hopefully that will prove to be the case tomorrow and we can finally make some sort of progress.It's moves alot of the good stuff like workers rights onto the PD. Meaning we can chose to scrap the standards any point. Also makes a no deal a possibility further down the road

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[grunt]

Did he really say that? He must shirley be the thickest person ever to make foreign secretary.

https://twitter.com/MarieAnnUK/status/1185143922089189376

[grunt]

Led by donkeys

https://www.youtube.com/embed/gxpq96iQ6BU

[Chorley Hibee]

Oliver Letwin amendment set to throw the proverbial cat amongst the pigeons.

[Hibernia&Alba]

FT currently forecasting that Johnson will win the vote by 1 or 2 votes.

*****.

If the DUP do indeed all vote against, it will come down to how many Labour MPs are prepared to vote for it. It's going to be very tight either way.

[Ozyhibby]

How is it a worse deal? It seems to be generally accepted that Johnson's deal is all but identical to May's deal with the exception that it gets rid of the Irish backstop. Bearing in mind that this was the issue which so many MPs claimed made the deal unacceptable, you'd assume that by getting rid of it they would now see the deal as a better one? Hopefully that will prove to be the case tomorrow and we can finally make some sort of progress.

It didn’t so much get rid of the back stop as make it a certainty but only for NI. They are now permanently in the CU and SM and it is no longer dependent on a deal being achieved.
NI will now have to lobby Dublin on trade issues.


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[Ozyhibby]

If the DUP do indeed all vote against, it will come down to how many Labour MPs are prepared to vote for it. It's going to be very tight either way.

Corbyn saying there will be no sanctions on Labour mp’s voting for the deal means they have effectively given them a free vote.


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[Callum_62]

Corbyn saying there will be no sanctions on Labour mp’s voting for the deal means they have effectively given them a free vote.


Sent from my iPhone using TapatalkWhy wouldn't they 3 line whip?

Not as if its not important or anything [emoji849]

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[Ozyhibby]

Why wouldn't they 3 line whip?

Not as if its not important or anything [emoji849]

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Technically it is a three line whip but the leader is saying it’s ok if you ignore it.


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[Jack]

How is it a worse deal? It seems to be generally accepted that Johnson's deal is all but identical to May's deal with the exception that it gets rid of the Irish backstop. Bearing in mind that this was the issue which so many MPs claimed made the deal unacceptable, you'd assume that by getting rid of it they would now see the deal as a better one? Hopefully that will prove to be the case tomorrow and we can finally make some sort of progress.

I heard one commentator saying they had only removed the term The Irish Backstop and replaced it with something else. Not much else had changed.

[CloudSquall]

It feels like a kick in the balls knowing it's the staunch 1690 types like Ross Thomson and co that parts of Scotland decided to vote in that are dragging this over the line tomorrow...

[Ozyhibby]

Brexiteers are furious at Letwin’s amendment. Makes tomorrow’s vote indicative rather than meaningful.


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[mjhibby]

Brexiteers are furious at Letwin’s amendment. Makes tomorrow’s vote indicative rather than meaningful.


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He's such a naughty guy that letwin. Shouldn't have peed him off Boris.

[Moulin Yarns]

It didn’t so much get rid of the back stop as make it a certainty but only for NI. They are now permanently in the CU and SM and it is no longer dependent on a deal being achieved.
NI will now have to lobby Dublin on trade issues.


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I think it's also the biggest capitulation that Johnson could have done. It moves the border into the Irish Sea, something may managed to get changed.

[southsider]

I heard one commentator saying they had only removed the term The Irish Backstop and replaced it with something else. Not much else had changed.

It’s a cracking deal for N/I being in the single market but they will drag the rest of us out. A cracking deal is like saying Bighorn was a cracking deal for Custer.

[lapsedhibee]

I think it's also the biggest capitulation that Johnson could have done.

:agree: Surrender deal, just to avoid the embarrassment of asking for an extension.

[Chorley Hibee]

:agree: Surrender deal, just to avoid the embarrassment of asking for an extension.

To think that Johnson had been the one throwing that term around earlier too.

Absolutely no shame.

[Glory Lurker]

So we have fellow EU citizens in Scotland having to get confirmed status. In some cases (all?) it last five years. Then what?

Disgusting state of affairs.

[Mibbes Aye]

Why wouldn't they 3 line whip?

Not as if its not important or anything [emoji849]

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Technically it is a three line whip but the leader is saying it’s ok if you ignore it.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Corbyn and McDonnell voted against the Labour governments of 1997-2010 nearly a thousand times between them.

I would respectfully suggest they have no credibility when it comes to whipping anybody :greengrin

[Glory Lurker]

Corbyn and McDonnell voted against the Labour governments of 1997-2010 nearly a thousand times between them.

I would respectfully suggest they have no credibility when it comes to whipping anybody :greengrin

As a passionate remainer, though, are you not concerned that positively permitting his MPs to enable Brexit (and a Tory landslide in the election) is a bad thing?

[Callum_62]

Looks like the ERG are onside for the deal too.... No surprise given its potential no deal consequence in 2020

How any labour mps can support it is beyond me

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[Mibbes Aye]

As a passionate remainer, though, are you not concerned that positively permitting his MPs to enable Brexit (and a Tory landslide in the election) is a bad thing?

Yeah, my point was the hypocrisy but I don’t think it comes to that with Corbyn because he and Milne want an exit anyway (or Milne certainly does and we will all end up in a socialist wonderland, immune from the rest of the planet).

I am away from home at the moment and not following the news as assiduously as I otherwise would. What I pick up is that Corbyn/Milne sees the chance to enable a deal, which disgusts me. I also think that the majority of those who voted for him as leader, even as entryists, don’t want to Leave.

As for the next GE, I find it hard to see beyond a Tory majority unless there is some sort of unity behind a Remain leader, plus loads of tactical voting. In this day and age that can be mobilisied but the block is Corbyn.

[Glory Lurker]

I believed brexit couldn't possibly happen because it was so monumentally insane. My belief has been whittled away over the months until it was a thread, but it was still hope. Looks like that gets snuffed out tomorrow.

Voting for brexit was a positive decision to support restriction on people entering the UK. I get why remain didn't call that for what it was while there was still a chance to prevent it, but the kid gloves have to come off. Brexit voters are racists. Brexit is racist.

[Glory Lurker]

Yeah, my point was the hypocrisy but I don’t think it comes to that with Corbyn because he and Milne want an exit anyway (or Milne certainly does and we will all end up in a socialist wonderland, immune from the rest of the planet).

I am away from home at the moment and not following the news as assiduously as I otherwise would. What I pick up is that Corbyn/Milne sees the chance to enable a deal, which disgusts me. I also think that the majority of those who voted for him as leader, even as entryists, don’t want to Leave.

As for the next GE, I find it hard to see beyond a Tory majority unless there is some sort of unity behind a Remain leader, plus loads of tactical voting. In this day and age that can be mobilisied but the block is Corbyn.

I would like to think that me and you actually agreeing on something will tear the space/time continuum such that Brexit will never happen!

[Mibbes Aye]

I would like to think that me and you actually agreeing on something will tear the space/time continuum such that Brexit will never happen!

It feels like one of the Star Wars movies where they didn’t really get on but came together, just in the face of certain death.

Nice knowing you :greengrin

[Glory Lurker]

It feels like one of the Star Wars movies where they didn’t really get on but came together, just in the face of certain death.

Nice knowing you :greengrin

Ha ha ha ha! Thumbs up.

[grunt]

https://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2019/10/18/johnson-s-deal-the-reality-of-what-is-being-proposed



We are about to sabotage our relationship with the most successful economic project in the modern world. It is the biggest decision we'll take in our lifetime and one which, if we do it, we'll regret for a long time to come.

[ronaldo7]

Super Saturday. The Letwin amendment will win through, making, Boris, have to sign that letter asking for an extension.

Let's hope the labour MPs stay onside.

[Callum_62]

Super Saturday. The Letwin amendment will win through, making, Boris, have to sign that letter asking for an extension.

Let's hope the labour MPs stay onside.What will the extension in this case achieve if both pass?

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[Callum_62]

https://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2019/10/18/johnson-s-deal-the-reality-of-what-is-being-proposedAnd our parliment are given about 2 days to read a 600 page document with 90 mins debate on its merits

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[Moulin Yarns]

And our parliment are given about 2 days to read a 600 page document with 90 mins debate on its merits

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I think I heard that the document was around 60 pages, May's one was 600, because there's not much in it.

[Callum_62]

This deal, if it is to pass, will not get Brexit done” he said.*“All we’ve done is end the first phase of the negotiations.

“In fact in the last three and a half years we’ve just done the easy bit, because we’ll move on to a long agonising negotiation in which Brussels will hold all of the cards

Quote - Nigel Farage.

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[ronaldo7]

What will the extension in this case achieve if both pass?

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I believe the letwin amendment is to ensure we have time to scrutinise/amend the legislation of leaving the EU. It will also allow MPs time to move into more fertile ground on changing legislation completely on leaving.

One thing you can guarantee though, is that all SNP MP's will vote down, Johnson's deal. Labour MP's, not so much.

[marinello59]

Super Saturday. The Letwin amendment will win through, making, Boris, have to sign that letter asking for an extension.

Let's hope the labour MPs stay onside.

I'm not too hopeful on that score.

[ronaldo7]

I'm not too hopeful on that score.

Let's hope it stays low in number, but you never know.

Boris might chuck them a bung.

[Callum_62]

Letwin amendment selected by Bercrow

If it passes number 10 to send mps home and pull the bill

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[cabbageandribs1875]

orderrrrr every member who takes the floor must be heard, excluding ian blackford


oooh he's allowed to speak relatively unheckled this time


well said ian blackford

[Moulin Yarns]

Letwin amendment selected by Bercrow

If it passes number 10 to send mps home and pull the bill

Sent from my VOG-L29 using Tapatalk

Wow! Keep the news coming, I'm at Inverness in a sports centre and this is the only way I can find out what is going on.

[CloudSquall]

Boris responds to Blackford asking if he'll join him in congratulating England on their Rugby win, what a knob.

[Fife-Hibee]

Boris responds to Blackford asking if he'll join him in congratulating England on their Rugby win, what a knob.

Now now.... Boris takes his rugby very seriously.

https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/91B7/production/_86130373_86130372.jpg

https://i.ytimg.com/vi/7TpCf0KCZy0/maxresdefault.jpg

[Chorley Hibee]

Boris responds to Blackford asking if he'll join him in congratulating England on their Rugby win, what a knob.

Speaking as an Englishman myself, I couldn't believe that response on the back of Blackford's speech.

If that doesn't show the utter contempt he has for Scotland and its' people then nothing will.

[Fife-Hibee]

Speaking as an Englishman myself, I couldn't believe that response on the back of Blackford's speech.

If that doesn't show the utter contempt he has for Scotland and its' people then nothing will.

:agree::top marks

.

[ronaldo7]

Boris responds to Blackford asking if he'll join him in congratulating England on their Rugby win, what a knob.

I wonder if any twirly flags were flown. 😂

[BroxburnHibee]

Speaking as an Englishman myself, I couldn't believe that response on the back of Blackford's speech.

If that doesn't show the utter contempt he has for Scotland and its' people then nothing will.

It beggars belief that people still swallow the 'better together' crap!

[weecounty hibby]

It beggars belief that people still swallow the 'better together' crap!
It really does become clearer daily that there is nothing at all better about being together in this incredibly one sided union

[G B Young]

Letwin amendment selected by Bercrow

If it passes number 10 to send mps home and pull the bill

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If that's really what's being proposed then that would be the correct decision. If such an amendment is passed it would make the sitting of Parliament today pointless. It's nothing more than another narrow-minded and unnecessary attempt to prolong this mind-numbing state of limbo we've been in for well over three years.

Those still banging the drum for yet another extension and a second referendum are interested in only one thing and that is to stop Brexit happening in any form. Their pretence at 'debating' a deal they intended to vote down before it had even been struck is pitiful.

[marinello59]

Boris responds to Blackford asking if he'll join him in congratulating England on their Rugby win, what a knob.

For ****s sake, he isn't even pretending to care about us now.

[Colr]

It really does become clearer daily that there is nothing at all better about being together in this incredibly one sided union

The past few years have shown that the Westminster system and two party approach to government is utterly inadequate.

The only saving grace has been the ability of the judiciary to constrain it demonstrating how critical it is in any democracy.

[Fife-Hibee]

It beggars belief that people still swallow the 'better together' crap!

:tsk tsk: This wee island took down the whole of Germany once and we're doing it again.


Those still banging the drum for yet another extension and a second referendum are interested in only one thing and that is to stop Brexit happening in any form.

Good.

[weecounty hibby]

For ****s sake, he isn't even pretending to care about us now.

And why should he, he really doesn't have to. He know that there are still enough people in Scotland who are happy to take the scraps thrown from Westminster's table. Scotland needs to wake up to what is happening and has been for decades

[Hibbyradge]

If that's really what's being proposed then that would be the correct decision. If such an amendment is passed it would make the sitting of Parliament today pointless. It's nothing more than another narrow-minded and unnecessary attempt to prolong this mind-numbing state of limbo we've been in for well over three years.

Those still banging the drum for yet another extension and a second referendum are interested in only one thing and that is to stop Brexit happening in any form. Their pretence at 'debating' a deal they intended to vote down before it had even been struck is pitiful.

What is your opinion of the people who are pretending to debate a "deal" which they will use to ensure the UK has no deal in 14 months without asking the electorate?

[Colr]

It beggars belief that people still swallow the 'better together' crap!

We are always better working together. The question is better with whom. Europe or England. I would go for Europe. They helped Ireland when it was standing up to English bullying

[cabbageandribs1875]

every single time jonson refers back to the 2014 referendum, forgetting of course scots were told the only way to stay in the EU was to vote NO:rolleyes:

[lapsedhibee]

If that's really what's being proposed then that would be the correct decision. If such an amendment is passed it would make the sitting of Parliament today pointless. It's nothing more than another narrow-minded and unnecessary attempt to prolong this mind-numbing state of limbo we've been in for well over three years.

Or another way to look at it is as an attempt to prevent a known liar from saying one thing and doing another. Letwin wants the deal passed - he just doesn't want its passing today to be used by Cummings as a mechanism to achieve No Deal on the 31st.

[marinello59]

every single time jonson refers back to the 2014 referendum, forgetting of course scots were told the only way to stay in the EU was to vote NO:rolleyes:

He keeps repeating the lie that we were told it was a once in a generation thing as well.

[G B Young]

What is your opinion of the people who are pretending to debate a "deal" which they will use to ensure the UK has no deal in 14 months without asking the electorate?

The electorate will have their say via a general election long before then.

[Callum_62]

What is your opinion of the people who are pretending to debate a "deal" which they will use to ensure the UK has no deal in 14 months without asking the electorate?Arnt they more worried of the erg changing there mind in the next 2 weeks and collapsing the deal, therefore enabling no deal on 1st Nov?
Sure I read or heard that yesterday

And obviously we won't have a GE by then

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[Fife-Hibee]

https://scontent-lhr3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/74324994_440933070113257_7176581208459968512_n.jpg ?_nc_cat=102&_nc_eui2=AeH5PRaavs2e3EVvZwN0bU6rWamAUnt7Rq1T-E3rRtCgRDfE6H0C0cbcalUZcOJF3HzyvcsI3wfe_RGIiUCpq30 iZIcUN4zCMtAVzBPg4m-Idg&_nc_oc=AQmcHO9GrZ-3Lb9plIp9fW88ViDPk_DG-jAkkwvc6RiJZRR3bN6Cqg0R1yNFAoNOc5U&_nc_ht=scontent-lhr3-1.xx&oh=11a067186eb1c8d384629ecaa170548f&oe=5E1B98A8

[lapsedhibee]

https://scontent-lhr3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/74324994_440933070113257_7176581208459968512_n.jpg ?_nc_cat=102&_nc_eui2=AeH5PRaavs2e3EVvZwN0bU6rWamAUnt7Rq1T-E3rRtCgRDfE6H0C0cbcalUZcOJF3HzyvcsI3wfe_RGIiUCpq30 iZIcUN4zCMtAVzBPg4m-Idg&_nc_oc=AQmcHO9GrZ-3Lb9plIp9fW88ViDPk_DG-jAkkwvc6RiJZRR3bN6Cqg0R1yNFAoNOc5U&_nc_ht=scontent-lhr3-1.xx&oh=11a067186eb1c8d384629ecaa170548f&oe=5E1B98A8

Ffs everyone stop with the dead language patter!

[cabbageandribs1875]

Ffs everyone stop with the dead language patter!



it's the lawyer in her

[GlesgaeHibby]

What's the likely outcome today if Letwin passes. Extension requested then vote of no confidence when extension confirmed?

[EI255]

If only we voted YES a few years ago we wouldn't have to suffer this utter tripe from Westminster right now. And the horrible thought of leaving the EU.

Why, in 2019, would any right minded Scot want to remain in such a pathetic "Union". The Tories have ruined this country.

Gets your blood boiling!

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[Scorrie]

Ffs everyone stop with the dead language patter!

Fair enough. Mea culpa!

[ronaldo7]

If that's really what's being proposed then that would be the correct decision. If such an amendment is passed it would make the sitting of Parliament today pointless. It's nothing more than another narrow-minded and unnecessary attempt to prolong this mind-numbing state of limbo we've been in for well over three years.

Those still banging the drum for yet another extension and a second referendum are interested in only one thing and that is to stop Brexit happening in any form. Their pretence at 'debating' a deal they intended to vote down before it had even been struck is pitiful.

Ye, let's just let them vote on, "the deal" without seeing the economic impact assessments on the deal.

Banging the drum indeed.

[Moulin Yarns]

What is your opinion of the people who are pretending to debate a "deal" which they will use to ensure the UK has no deal in 14 months without asking the electorate?

You mean "the will of the people" crap.

[lapsedhibee]

Fair enough. Mea culpa!

Reported.
If the admin pricks give you a ban, hope it's sine die.

[Cataplana]

The past few years have shown that the Westminster system and two party approach to government is utterly inadequate.

The only saving grace has been the ability of the judiciary to constrain it demonstrating how critical it is in any democracy.

Conversely there have been three years in which nothing remotely resembling a deal that's beneficial for Britain has been put to Parliament

[grunt]

Fair enough. Mea culpa!


Reported. If the admin pricks give you a ban, hope it's sine die.:hibees

[grunt]

Those still banging the drum for yet another extension and a second referendum are interested in only one thing and that is to stop Brexit happening in any form. Spot on. And they are absolutely correct to do so. Brexit is a disaster for the people of the UK.

[Pretty Boy]

Totally childish but how odd if Michael Gove? Watching the debate and seeing him sitting there he just looks a total weirdo. Bodies in the basement and a sexual interest in horses level of weird.

[Colr]

Conversely there have been three years in which nothing remotely resembling a deal that's beneficial for Britain has been put to Parliament

Parliament has basically done **** all for three years but fanny about on Brexit

Meanwhile, Dad’s Army have taken over the Tory party and Labour has vanished to be replaced by the North London Polytechnic branch of the SWP

[stoneyburn hibs]

If that's really what's being proposed then that would be the correct decision. If such an amendment is passed it would make the sitting of Parliament today pointless. It's nothing more than another narrow-minded and unnecessary attempt to prolong this mind-numbing state of limbo we've been in for well over three years.

Those still banging the drum for yet another extension and a second referendum are interested in only one thing and that is to stop Brexit happening in any form. Their pretence at 'debating' a deal they intended to vote down before it had even been struck is pitiful.

Right you are Boris .

[SHODAN]

It's going to pass, isn't it.

[lapsedhibee]

Totally childish but how odd if Michael Gove? Watching the debate and seeing him sitting there he just looks a total weirdo. Bodies in the basement and a sexual interest in horses level of weird.

Possibly just dawning on him that having told half the Tory party that Johnson's deal will eventually lead to No Deal and the other half that it won't might lead to credibility problems in his future.

[lapsedhibee]

Barclay now saying Johnson's deal is a deal for the 48% as well as the 52%. :dizzy:

[Cataplana]

Parliament has basically done **** all for three years but fanny about on Brexit

Meanwhile, Dad’s Army have taken over the Tory party and Labour has vanished to be replaced by the North London Polytechnic branch of the SWP

It's a very British (English) set of affairs, planning things and saying what you want up front just isn't a polite way to go about things. It's about fannying around pretending you haven't got a scooby what you want to happen, on the basis that it will be alright on the night.

Had they not been so lazy that they let people vote on a concept, rather than a plan, they would not be in this mess. Likewise, if the people voting had the sense to abstain from a vote on something as wooly as was proposed, then it wouldn't have got this far.


"They said we'd be artistically free
When we signed that bit of paper
They meant let's make a lotsa mon-ee
An' worry about it later"

[Fife-Hibee]

Oh look, the BBC and Sky News are reporting on a smaller march than the one that was held in Edinburgh. But we were told that reporting on marches that didn't have sectarian/racial motivations went against their guidelines. :hmmm:

[G B Young]

Ye, let's just let them vote on, "the deal" without seeing the economic impact assessments on the deal.

Banging the drum indeed.

I saw the SNP's Drew Hendry interviewed the other day and he said you "don't even need to see the deal to know it's a worse deal than May's". With that sort of closed mindset what is the point of those implacably opposed to Brexit having yet more time to 'scrutinise' things? We've had years of parliamentary 'scrutiny' of endless Brexit permutations and all it's led to is hopeless division. Dominic Grieve added this morning that the government wants Brexit to proceed at "such a gallop" that parliament won't have time to look in detail at the deal. Hard to think of a less appropriate word than "gallop" to describe the pace of Brexit!

While I don't agree with the Lib Dem policy on Brexit (ie cancel it), they're at least being honest about their stance. The rest of the remainers who continue to find all sorts of ways to obsess over parliamentary procedure should ditch this pretence that they're putting the interest of the country first and admit that their only interest is preventing any deal from ever happening.

[Moulin Yarns]

Ready to rock. https://t.co/GsR8t5Hk70

[Fife-Hibee]

I saw the SNP's Drew Hendry interviewed the other day and he said you "don't even need to see the deal to know it's a worse deal than May's". With that sort of closed mindset what is the point of those implacably opposed to Brexit having yet more time to 'scrutinise' things? We've had years of parliamentary 'scrutiny' of endless Brexit permutations and all it's led to is hopeless division. Dominic Grieve added this morning that the government wants Brexit to proceed at "such a gallop" that parliament won't have time to look in detail at the deal. Hard to think of a less appropriate word than "gallop" to describe the pace of Brexit!

While I don't agree with the Lib Dem policy on Brexit (ie cancel it), they're at least being honest about their stance. The rest of the remainers who continue to find all sorts of ways to obsess over parliamentary procedure should ditch this pretence that they're putting the interest of the country first and admit that their only interest is preventing any deal from ever happening.

Well that's certainly true for the SNP. The "deal" effectively gives Northern Ireland what the Scottish Government requested, while Scotland is given the finger. So of course they're never going to accept this deal and not one single member, supporter or voter of the SNP would expect them to do otherwise.

[Hiber-nation]

Ready to rock. https://t.co/GsR8t5Hk70

A parent approved of that? Jeez.

[grunt]

We've had years of parliamentary 'scrutiny' of endless Brexit permutations and all it's led to is hopeless division. Dominic Grieve added this morning that the government wants Brexit to proceed at "such a gallop" that parliament won't have time to look in detail at the deal. Hard to think of a less appropriate word than "gallop" to describe the pace of Brexit!I take it that you realise you're talking about two completely different - and unrelated - things. The years since the EU referendum have indeed been wasted, primarily because May decided right up front to set red lines which were contradictory and which would result in a very difficult Brexit agreement.

And then on Wednesday the current incumbents of Number 10 came up with a new "deal" and is expecting Parliament to decide on it with only cursory review.

I'm sure that you can see that you cannot compare these two different situations.

[Hibrandenburg]

It's going to pass, isn't it.

Think so. It's remarkable how the press have done a 180 degree turn and are now fawning all over Boris' deal which is basically May's deal just slightly worse and which they trashed. It's almost as if they are intentionally helping Johnson soften up the electorate.

[Fife-Hibee]

Think so. It's remarkable how the press have done a 180 degree turn and are now fawning all over Boris' deal which is basically May's deal just slightly worse and which they trashed. It's almost as if they are intentionally helping Johnson soften up the electorate.

It's not Mays deal though, because Mays deal made no deal impossible. This "deal" doesn't. Because even if parliament votes the deal through, there are no protections to prevent a hard brexit from occuring, should things ultimately break down between the UK Government and Brussels.

and you can be sure as hell that Boris Johnson would do everything to ensure that they do break down.

[Ozyhibby]

It's not Mays deal though, because Mays deal made no deal impossible. This "deal" doesn't. Because even if parliament votes the deal through, there are no protections to prevent a hard brexit from occuring, should things ultimately break down between the UK Government and Brussels.

and you can be sure as hell that Boris Johnson would do everything to ensure that they do break down.

Absolutely because if it goes through there is no further need for a meaningful vote. If it passes today then they are free to go for no deal without permission from parliament.


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[Moulin Yarns]

“So I am moving this amendment to ensure that whichever way any future votes go, we can be secure in knowledge that UK will have requested extension tonight”

Sir Oliver Letwin outlines his amendment "to prevent us crashing out"
https://t.co/gQkqnzl6R4 #SuperSaturday https://t.co/u1Cjth1B7b

[cabbageandribs1875]

ian blackford has his hibs tie on today

[Fife-Hibee]

ian blackford has his hibs tie on today

:thumbsup:

We all know how much the colour green upsets the average gammon.

[cabbageandribs1875]

:thumbsup:

We all know how much the colour green upsets the average gammon.



Michael 'the sash/no surrender/hello hello' Gove will be apoplectic

[Hibrandenburg]

Bookies now favouring the deal being blown out. Hope they're right.

[Pretty Boy]

The best thing about the deal being rejected, if that is what happens, will be seeing the faces of Johnson, Rees-Mogg et al. People who have spent their whole life expecting to get what they want and usually getting exactly that being left high and dry yet again.

Glorious.

[Since90+2]

Ken Clarke stands in the Commons to say it's a bad deal and much worse than Theresa May's. He then goes on to say he will vote for it.

Brexit summed up. Our longest serving politician says it's a bad deal but will vote for it anyway.

Bonkers.

If the deal does go through I can see alot of unrest taking place in London tonight.

[Ozyhibby]

DUP voting for Letwin.


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[Since90+2]

DUP voting for Letwin.


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Are they not abstaining?

[cabbageandribs1875]

give Liz Kendall the labour leadership

[Moulin Yarns]

No 10 claims chances of no deal go up if Letwin passes - 'the govt will step up no deal preparations immediately as the risks will have increased substantially - if Letwin defeated + deal approved, no deal preparations will start being turned off immediately'

[G B Young]

I take it that you realise you're talking about two completely different - and unrelated - things. The years since the EU referendum have indeed been wasted, primarily because May decided right up front to set red lines which were contradictory and which would result in a very difficult Brexit agreement.

And then on Wednesday the current incumbents of Number 10 came up with a new "deal" and is expecting Parliament to decide on it with only cursory review.

I'm sure that you can see that you cannot compare these two different situations.

I've not heard anyone else describe Johnson's deal as 'completely different' to May's. The general consensus seems to be that they're all but identical bar the scrapping of the backstop. Does that really require another three months of scrutiny?

Truth is the parliamentary remain faction have been caught on the hop by the fact Johnson has secured a deal. They assumed the Benn Act would ensure another few months of pointless delay so they're now scrabbling around for new ways to hold things up.

[Moulin Yarns]

No 10 claims chances of no deal go up if Letwin passes - 'the govt will step up no deal preparations immediately as the risks will have increased substantially - if Letwin defeated + deal approved, no deal preparations will start being turned off immediately'

I'm told that's the advice from Cabinet Secretary - legal default is still leaving at end of this month, because they can't be completely sure that EU would offer the delay (even tho lots of people on here will scream of course they would, that is a hypothetical)

Getting all this from twitter.

Any idea when voting is?

[Ozyhibby]

I've not heard anyone else describe Johnson's deal as 'completely different' to May's. The general consensus seems to be that they're all but identical bar the scrapping of the backstop. Does that really require another three months of scrutiny?

Truth is the parliamentary remain faction have been caught on the hop by the fact Johnson has secured a deal. They assumed the Benn Act would ensure another few months of pointless delay so they're now scrabbling around for new ways to hold things up.

The deal is different though. All the level playing field provisions have been removed. That was what tempted the ERG to shaft the DUP. It allows them to strip back employment law, environmental regulations etc. That was a big prize for the far right and made it worth shafting the DUP.


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[G B Young]

Ken Clarke stands in the Commons to say it's a bad deal and much worse than Theresa May's. He then goes on to say he will vote for it.

Brexit summed up. Our longest serving politician says it's a bad deal but will vote for it anyway.

Bonkers.

If the deal does go through I can see alot of unrest taking place in London tonight.

What's bonkers about Brexit is that the biggest democratic vote ever held in the UK did not go the way a substantial minority of voters wanted and many of them have spent the last three and half years refusing to accept the result. It's time to move on and compared to a lot of the more hysterical remain faction in parliament Clarke is a decent barometer of public opinion.

[Pretty Boy]

What's bonkers about Brexit is that the biggest democratic vote ever held in the UK did not go the way a substantial minority of voters wanted and many of them have spent the last three and half years refusing to accept the result. It's time to move on and compared to a lot of the more hysterical remain faction in parliament Clarke is a decent barometer of public opinion.

Is he?

Public opinion is that a majority want to remain and that has been the case for about 18 months now.

[Moulin Yarns]

what's bonkers about brexit is that the biggest democratic vote ever held in the uk did not go the way the government at the time expected.

ftfy

[Fife-Hibee]

What's bonkers about Brexit is that the biggest democratic vote ever held in the UK did not go the way a substantial minority of voters wanted

A statement that could be applied to both sides. Both sides were a substantial minority and neither side will get what they thought they were voting for.

The only real winners out of this will be the Boris Johnsons, Jacob Rees-Moggs and Nigel Farages of the world. There's nothing here that will serve the public interest.

[Moulin Yarns]

Bbc

DUP source tells me they are going to back Letwin - big blow for the PM,

[Moulin Yarns]

Sky

If the Letwin vote passes, a big argument of the day will be about what the PM can and can’t tell the EU tonight. He wants to signal for no extension in a second letter: the Benn act suggests that’s not possible. Conflicting legal interpretations that could end up in court.

More

[Pretty Boy]

Labour rebellion expected to be smaller than the 19 Johnson had hoped for.

Government may lose by a 'very small handful'.

[1875godsgift]

It's a very British (English) set of affairs, planning things and saying what you want up front just isn't a polite way to go about things. It's about fannying around pretending you haven't got a scooby what you want to happen, on the basis that it will be alright on the night.

Had they not been so lazy that they let people vote on a concept, rather than a plan, they would not be in this mess. Likewise, if the people voting had the sense to abstain from a vote on something as wooly as was proposed, then it wouldn't have got this far.


"They said we'd be artistically free
When we signed that bit of paper
They meant let's make a lotsa mon-ee
An' worry about it later"


Complete control - let me see your other hand.....

[Ozyhibby]

Letwin passed. DUP decisive.


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[Fife-Hibee]

Passed 322 to 306.

[JeMeSouviens]

Where’s Mr DUP-certain-to-back-down-by-Saturday gone? :wink:

[DaveF]

Where’s Mr DUP-certain-to-back-down-by-Saturday gone? :wink:

Registering another user name perhaps?

[CloudSquall]

Where’s Mr DUP-certain-to-back-down-by-Saturday gone? :wink:

I'm on the edge of my seat here awaiting the next moves of this game of 6D chess :agree::greengrin

[Moulin Yarns]

PM says the meaningful vote has been voided of meaning. He says I will not negotiate a delay with the EU and neither does the law compel me.

[GlesgaeHibby]

PM says the meaningful vote has been voided of meaning. He says I will not negotiate a delay with the EU and neither does the law compel me.

Liar lies again.

[Moulin Yarns]

Tory MPs walking out of chamber en masse


Tory benches have now emptied..... https://t.co/dVPIsOLx6l

[JeMeSouviens]

Sadly it now looks like the numbers are there to get Johnson’s deal through. Letwin amendment only passed with votes of most of the Tory rebs. They will mostly now vote for the deal as they think they have made it safe from no deal in the short term.

I don’t think the numbers are there to tack on ref#2 either. Dark times.

[Moulin Yarns]

Sadly it now looks like the numbers are there to get Johnson’s deal through. Letwin amendment only passed with votes of most of the Tory rebs. They will mostly now vote for the deal as they think they have made it safe from no deal in the short term.

I don’t think the numbers are there to tack on ref#2 either. Dark times.


No vote today though.

[Ozyhibby]

Sadly it now looks like the numbers are there to get Johnson’s deal through. Letwin amendment only passed with votes of most of the Tory rebs. They will mostly now vote for the deal as they think they have made it safe from no deal in the short term.

I don’t think the numbers are there to tack on ref#2 either. Dark times.

Yip. Chance has now gone for vote of no confidence as well. Johnson could not have hoped for a weaker opposition.


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[JeMeSouviens]

Sliver of hope is that the deal (withdrawal agreement bill) will be amendable as it goes. If amendments can be won to soften the deal as it goes then it’s possible the hardliners could end up rejecting it later.

[Ozyhibby]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191019/95c5f7f47715a922fe38b4e9b43dbfb6.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191019/2b4159478ef8e36cbb573184482a9f05.jpghttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191019/75a9f653105cb0ccf4591f6eb588c371.jpg


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[grunt]

I've not heard anyone else describe Johnson's deal as 'completely different' to May's. The general consensus seems to be that they're all but identical bar the scrapping of the backstop. Does that really require another three months of scrutiny?That's really not what I said.

[Bristolhibby]

No 10 claims chances of no deal go up if Letwin passes - 'the govt will step up no deal preparations immediately as the risks will have increased substantially - if Letwin defeated + deal approved, no deal preparations will start being turned off immediately'

Of course No 10 (Cummings) said that. Just trying to scare the horses.

J

[ronaldo7]

I saw the SNP's Drew Hendry interviewed the other day and he said you "don't even need to see the deal to know it's a worse deal than May's". With that sort of closed mindset what is the point of those implacably opposed to Brexit having yet more time to 'scrutinise' things? We've had years of parliamentary 'scrutiny' of endless Brexit permutations and all it's led to is hopeless division. Dominic Grieve added this morning that the government wants Brexit to proceed at "such a gallop" that parliament won't have time to look in detail at the deal. Hard to think of a less appropriate word than "gallop" to describe the pace of Brexit!

While I don't agree with the Lib Dem policy on Brexit (ie cancel it), they're at least being honest about their stance. The rest of the remainers who continue to find all sorts of ways to obsess over parliamentary procedure should ditch this pretence that they're putting the interest of the country first and admit that their only interest is preventing any deal from ever happening.

I thought that's what the 52% voted for, parliamentary sovereignty?

Surely you're not against that?

When we play a game, as some seem to be wanting to do, the other team are allowed to play by the rules too.

[Since90+2]

I thought that's what the 52% voted for, parliamentary sovereignty?

Surely you're not against that?

When we play a game, as some seem to be wanting to do, the other team are allowed to play by the rules too.

Exactly. Take back control , our parliament is sovereign ect.

The whole Brexit arguement and its benefits have been completely blown apart by simple facts and realism over the last 18 months. Most Brexiteers will realise that it's the wrong decision but are now so entrenched don't want to admit it. It's became so tribal that actual realism no longer matters.

[Jack Hackett]

If that's really what's being proposed then that would be the correct decision. If such an amendment is passed it would make the sitting of Parliament today pointless. It's nothing more than another narrow-minded and unnecessary attempt to prolong this mind-numbing state of limbo we've been in for well over three years.

Those still banging the drum for yet another extension and a second referendum are interested in only one thing and that is to stop Brexit happening in any form. Their pretence at 'debating' a deal they intended to vote down before it had even been struck is pitiful.

No s**t, Sherlock!? :rolleyes:

[Callum_62]

I seen a tory mp on telly being interviewed who voted for the letwin amendment.

Said he thinks this deal is worst than Theresa May's deal on which he voted against

He will however, vote for this deal next week

Unfortunately the presenter didn't push him on his reasonings

Surely this is just madness?

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[CloudSquall]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-politics-50112924?__twitter_impression=true

Boris is going to send the letter requesting a delay however he won't sign it, instead signing a 2nd letter that will state that he believes it would be a mistake to grant a delay.


Tremendously cringe worthy.

[Callum_62]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-politics-50112924?__twitter_impression=true

Boris is going to send the letter requesting a delay however he won't sign it, instead signing a 2nd letter that will state that he believes it would be a mistake to grant a delay.


Tremendously cringe worthy.And likley to be law breaking

Even if not its absolutely child like

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[wpj]

And likley to be law breaking

Even if not its absolutely child like

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Trump like. That's where we are now

[Pretty Boy]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-politics-50112924?__twitter_impression=true

Boris is going to send the letter requesting a delay however he won't sign it, instead signing a 2nd letter that will state that he believes it would be a mistake to grant a delay.


Tremendously cringe worthy.

Hopefully the EU grant the extension just to spite the ****.

[jonty]

So he's supposed to send it by 23:00 and he's sending it at 00:00 unsigned, along with a cover note saying it complies with parliament, and a second letter (signed) from the PM stating he believes the delay is a mistake.
What a childish prick.

i hope they find him in contempt for not sending the letter (signed) in the spirit of the law, and missing the deadline.

[Scorrie]

Hopefully the EU grant the extension just to spite the ****.

Aye an extension of around 50 years would do!

[lapsedhibee]

So he's supposed to send it by 23:00 and he's sending it at 00:00 unsigned, along with a cover note saying it complies with parliament, and a second letter (signed) from the PM stating he believes the delay is a mistake.


Think the court has already ruled that deliberately undermining the intention of the law won't wash. Judges in the Court of Session won't be impressed when it's raised with them next week.

[JeMeSouviens]

Amendment on the way to put the UK into the CU. Interesting!

[Callum_62]

Amendment on the way to put the UK into the CU. Interesting!Where you reading that?

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[JeMeSouviens]

Where you reading that?

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https://twitter.com/jgforsyth/status/1185500812308557825?s=21

[Mr Grieves]

What happened to "I would rather be dead in a ditch..."?

Boris is a *****bag

[Glory Lurker]

And he will win the next general election. Oh, the United Kingdom. What a great country.

[lapsedhibee]

Amendment on the way to put the UK into the CU. Interesting!

Wasn't that written before yesterday's vote - ie Sun propaganda? :dunno:

[Moulin Yarns]

And likley to be law breaking

Even if not its absolutely child like

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Sending the letter was complying with the law, not signing it and sending the other letters is both infantile and contemptuous and should see him in court.

[Callum_62]

Sending the letter was complying with the law, not signing it and sending the other letters is both infantile and contemptuous and should see him in court.Yep be very interesting what happens in the Scottish courts

Either way it makes it look like an absolute fanny who shouldn't be anywhere near that job

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[Ozyhibby]

Labour to table an amendment for a second referendum to be added to Johnson’s deal.


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[BroxburnHibee]

Labour to table an amendment for a second referendum to be added to Johnson’s deal.


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Which the chat is the DUP might support after Boris throwing them under a bus.

[Ozyhibby]

On the CU chat, vote on that last time was 325-298. If the DUP switch sides on that then it becomes a lot closer.


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[Ozyhibby]

On the CU chat, vote on that last time was 325-298. If the DUP switch sides on that then it becomes a lot closer.


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Actually ignore that, it was 307-301 so if the DUP switch it would be decisive.


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[Cataplana]

This is probably the stupidest question ever, but here goes.

Does the Custom Union include Financial Services, and does that have any implications for pensions payments?

[Moulin Yarns]

Yep be very interesting what happens in the Scottish courts

Either way it makes it look like an absolute fanny who shouldn't be anywhere near that job

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https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-50112554

[Jack Hackett]

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-50112554

I think it's more than 'arguable' that the 2nd letter seeks to frustrate the law. It's clearly blatant disrespect for the Court of Sessions and the polar opposite of the undertaking he gave them through his lawyers.

They will not be happy

[Ozyhibby]

I’m not that worried about any court case. The EU will either grant it or they won’t. They have the letter and they know what it means.


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[southsider]

The point is he is breaking the law and showing total disregard to the Scottish Court and by doing so insults every single person in our Country.

[marinello59]

The point is he is breaking the law and showing total disregard to the Scottish Court and by doing so insults every single person in our Country.

And he will be rewarded with a large majority if we have a General election after he delivers Brexit and I fear the numbers are there now. Ozzy is right, the UK courts don’t really matter now, it’s what the EU decides to do which is important.

[southsider]

The point is he is breaking the law and showing total disregard to the Scottish Court and by doing so insults every single person in our Country.

Ps I chose which laws I think are just and which I don’t like I can chose to argue against.
But I am not the PM.

[Moulin Yarns]

Pilot Beer twiiter


Disappointed to see HMRC have ignored the second letter we sent asking them to ignore our alcohol duty return.