Brexit - What Now. [Archive] - Page 10

Fife-Hibee

10-10-2019, 07:21 PM

It is. Like the brexiteers, you are ignoring geography. England is our nearest neighbours and it’s very important that we can trade freely with them. A Scottish business that wants to expand is going to look at Newcastle before it thinks of Portugal.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Geography isn't everything, especially in this day and age. Businesses will expand where the money and market demand is. Whether that be next door, or several hundred miles over seas.

Newcastle isn't going to be an all too appealing prospect if the flow of capital isn't going there. Businesses want to expand into a large open market, not an insular one where free trade and capital are scarce.

speedy_gonzales

10-10-2019, 07:34 PM

Far to often do people dismiss this man as a bumbling Buffon - he is anything but and all opponents have taken the bait.
Whoah, probably the best keeper of all time, doubt he's bumbled that much to be fair!

ballengeich

10-10-2019, 07:51 PM

Geography isn't everything, especially in this day and age. Businesses will expand where the money and market demand is. Whether that be next door, or several hundred miles over seas.

That's what those in favour of a no-deal Brexit have been telling us all along.

CloudSquall

10-10-2019, 07:51 PM

Ozyhibby

10-10-2019, 08:03 PM

A lot would be dependent on the type of product, food and drink especially whisky would be looking to the Far East or Latin America for growth now.

Of course but a lot of our economy is made up of more humdrum stuff. And something less glam like a plumbers merchant will likely expand into England where the language is the same rather than the continent.
I really think we will struggle to persuade people that border checks are a price worth paying for independence.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Fife-Hibee

10-10-2019, 08:04 PM

That's what those in favour of a no-deal Brexit have been telling us all along.

They're referring to trade beyond Europe where free trade agreements and quality control don't apply.

Fife-Hibee

10-10-2019, 08:10 PM

Of course but a lot of our economy is made up of more humdrum stuff. And something less glam like a plumbers merchant will likely expand into England where the language is the same rather than the continent.
I really think we will struggle to persuade people that border checks are a price worth paying for independence.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Well we'll certainly struggle with that attitude. The argument is pretty straight forward. What is better for business and the overall wealth of society? Trade with an insular country with severely limited trading options, or free trade with an entire continent with strict quality control laws to protect the rights and health of consumers?

If we can't drill such an easy argument home, then we deserve the worst.

JeMeSouviens

10-10-2019, 08:10 PM

puff the dragon

10-10-2019, 08:21 PM

I agree especially in the short term. However, it’s worth saying that Ireland has achieved its economic potential while reducing its exports to the UK to approx 20% of their total.

but how much of the non-UK 80% has to pass through a UK port on its way to its destination?

as I said earlier a deal is happening:
* the worst hit by no deal will be ROI - UK is big enough to ride it out.
* to support ROI out of trouble they are going to need significant EU support (specifically Germany) - does Merkel have the appetite for carrying another nation alongside Greece, Italy & Spain?

Hibbyradge

10-10-2019, 08:32 PM

Of course but a lot of our economy is made up of more humdrum stuff. And something less glam like a plumbers merchant will likely expand into England where the language is the same rather than the continent.
I really think we will struggle to persuade people that border checks are a price worth paying for independence.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Unless there's a no deal Brexit and it's as an even higher bigger cluster****** than many are predicting, the need for a border between Scotland and England will kibosh independence.

A vote in favour of independence is not a certainty now, even with no border issue, and no matter how loud people shout, or try to point out the logical benefits of EU v UK, the margin to remain would be more than 55% - 45% if there was.

JeMeSouviens

10-10-2019, 08:38 PM

but how much of the non-UK 80% has to pass through a UK port on its way to its destination?

as I said earlier a deal is happening:
* the worst hit by no deal will be ROI - UK is big enough to ride it out.
* to support ROI out of trouble they are going to need significant EU support (specifically Germany) - does Merkel have the appetite for carrying another nation alongside Greece, Italy & Spain?

Roughly half is services so no ports there. For the goods I don’t know.

The economic impact of no deal is awful for Ireland but even worse for the UK. Ireland is currently running a surplus so has some cushion. The UK still in deficit which will get much bigger. We will ride it out by seeing the poor of the UK get ****ed.

Ozyhibby

10-10-2019, 08:42 PM

Ireland has its own ports, lots of them?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

puff the dragon

10-10-2019, 08:47 PM

Ireland has its own ports, lots of them?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

all of which sail to Great Britain, then onwards to their end destination.

there are very few routes direct to mainland Europe as the time takes 18 to 24 hours at sea. Big problem if goods are perishable.

Hibbyradge

10-10-2019, 08:53 PM

all of which sail to Great Britain, then onwards to their end destination.

there are very few routes direct to mainland Europe as the time takes 18 to 24 hours at sea. Big problem if goods are perishable.

That's not entirely true. Irish cargo sails directly into continental European ports. Rotterdam and Antwerp being the main ones, I think.

Ozyhibby

10-10-2019, 08:57 PM

all of which sail to Great Britain, then onwards to their end destination.

there are very few routes direct to mainland Europe as the time takes 18 to 24 hours at sea. Big problem if goods are perishable.

Do you mean ferries? I’m pretty sure container ships will sail direct to Europe. Would cost a lot more to sail a container to uk, then drive it across the country and onto another boat to Europe?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Ozyhibby

10-10-2019, 09:01 PM

Quick google search shows dublin port moves about 38m tonnes of goods a year. Leith moves about 1m tonnes.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

puff the dragon

10-10-2019, 09:08 PM

puff the dragon

10-10-2019, 09:10 PM

Quick google search shows dublin port moves about 38m tonnes of goods a year. Leith moves about 1m tonnes.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

just the 30m tonnes that end up on UK soil then..........

Moulin Yarns

10-10-2019, 09:29 PM

Just putting this up about ROI trade.

http://www.worldstopexports.com/irelands-top-import-partners/

Hibbyradge

10-10-2019, 09:32 PM

just the 30m tonnes that end up on UK soil then..........

It's certainly more convenient and quicker to use the land bridge that the UK offers, but other sailing routes will be found if needs be.

The whole of Europe, including Ireland, will suffer if there's a no deal Brexit, but the UK will be worst hit and by a stretch.

Ozyhibby

10-10-2019, 09:36 PM

This is the problem with political discussion these days - nobody wants facts, they only want to hear what supports their opinion.

clearly Ireland have a big issue if there is a no deal brexit due to the big sea barrier and the UK being a land obstacle to shorten any distance. Saying that they will just sail is over simplifying the solution and impractical.

looked up an article I read on it a while ago - it’s here if you’re interested - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44657460 (headline if not - 85% docks in UK - 60% stays in UK and other 40% onward to Europe)

That whole article only deals with roll on roll off ferries. That’s important for perishable goods as you say but container ships carry half of all Ireland’s exports and I doubt they are unloading them in the uk and the reloading them at another port.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Hibbyradge

10-10-2019, 09:37 PM

That whole article only deals with roll on roll off ferries. That’s important for perishable goods as you say but container ships carry half of all Ireland’s exports and I doubt they are unloading them in the uk and the reloading them at another port.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

They are.

Hibbyradge

10-10-2019, 09:41 PM

Here's a direct route to Europe https://www.dfds.com/en-gb/freight-shipping/routes-and-schedules/continental-europe-ireland

And here's another https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-and-tourism/dutch-shipping-company-to-offer-new-route-from-waterford-1.3927496%3fmode=amp

And they're planning more https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/call-for-state-to-devise-alternative-ship-routes-to-europe-1.3991248%3fmode=amp

JeMeSouviens

10-10-2019, 09:42 PM

This is the problem with political discussion these days - nobody wants facts, they only want to hear what supports their opinion.

You’re right but you’ve just done exactly what you castigate in others. The UK will be fine on account of its size is just nonsense.

puff the dragon

10-10-2019, 09:44 PM

It's certainly more convenient and quicker to use the land bridge that the UK offers, but other sailing routes will be found if needs be.

The whole of Europe, including Ireland, will suffer if there's a no deal Brexit, but the UK will be worst hit and by a stretch.

not denying they will find other routes - the point is they would rather not. Combined with keeping their large % of exports to their closest neighbour tariff free they need a deal.

everyone is poorer with a no deal brexit, it won’t be risked so a deal will be struck for the 31st. This is the point I’m making - I’m not making a leave or remain argument, just commenting on what is actually going to happen.

puff the dragon

10-10-2019, 09:49 PM

You’re right but you’ve just done exactly what you castigate in others. The UK will be fine on account of its size is just nonsense.

I never said it would be fine - remove your blinkers everyone. I’m saying we will suffer but will ride the storm better than Ireland who would need substantial support from the EU (in particular Germany) to see them through it.

everyone is getting to caught up on what they want to happen (remainders stay and leavers getting a no deal) they are missing what is actually going to happen - there will be no 2nd referendum, we are leaving the EU, May’s deal with a reworked Irish border solution will be pushed through for the 31st October.

on the 1st of November it’s all over and we move on

Hibrandenburg

10-10-2019, 09:54 PM

Don’t see a problem with a border between England and Scotland if there is no border between Scotland and Europe.

Wouldn't it be ironic if the border between Scotland and England once again becomes the peripheral post where the civilised world meets the under developed world?

JeMeSouviens

10-10-2019, 10:13 PM

I never said it would be fine - remove your blinkers everyone. I’m saying we will suffer but will ride the storm better than Ireland who would need substantial support from the EU (in particular Germany) to see them through it.

everyone is getting to caught up on what they want to happen (remainders stay and leavers getting a no deal) they are missing what is actually going to happen - there will be no 2nd referendum, we are leaving the EU, May’s deal with a reworked Irish border solution will be pushed through for the 31st October.

on the 1st of November it’s all over and we move on

Why would Ireland need support but the UK wouldn’t? You don’t have evidence to back that up, you’re just guessing.

In the deal situation, both UK and EU want one but then again they already have one. The danger is that if the UK really has moved far enough it will lose the DUP & spartan erg again.

Ozyhibby

10-10-2019, 10:13 PM

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/customs-border-in-irish-sea-emerges-as-the-only-basis-of-a-brexit-deal-1.4046877?mode=amp

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

puff the dragon

10-10-2019, 10:23 PM

Why would Ireland need support but the UK wouldn’t? You don’t have evidence to back that up, you’re just guessing.

In the deal situation, both UK and EU want one but then again they already have one. The danger is that if the UK really has moved far enough it will lose the DUP & spartan erg again.

UK support will be debt which we have access too are far better rates than Ireland.

i’m not saying this is the preferred solution, far from it, but without a deal it’s going to happen. Everyone is going to get tax hikes (UK and EU) with an increased debt burden with no deal. People need to stop trying to overturn or block decisions already made and just make the deal and get it done.

longer this goes on, the more inevitable no deal becomes.

Ozyhibby

10-10-2019, 10:28 PM

UK support will be debt which we have access too are far better rates than Ireland.

i’m not saying this is the preferred solution, far from it, but without a deal it’s going to happen. Everyone is going to get tax hikes (UK and EU) with an increased debt burden with no deal. People need to stop trying to overturn or block decisions already made and just make the deal and get it done.

longer this goes on, the more inevitable no deal becomes.

Do we have access to far better rates than Ireland? Irish bonds rates are below zero.
Can we borrow cheaper than that?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

puff the dragon

10-10-2019, 10:44 PM

Do we have access to far better rates than Ireland? Irish bonds rates are below zero.
Can we borrow cheaper than that?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

so - on the independence thread you boast Ireland is booming but here you praise a policy implemented as a stimulation attempt as they are concerned about the economy.

not going to get many people jumping to invest in debt at negative interest rates.

so is it a good thing that Ireland have turned to the desperation of negative interest rates?

Ozyhibby

10-10-2019, 10:47 PM

so - on the independence thread you boast Ireland is booming but here you praise a policy implemented as a stimulation attempt as they are concerned about the economy.

not going to get many people jumping to invest in debt at negative interest rates.

so is it a good thing that Ireland have turned to the desperation of negative interest rates?

Ireland is running a surplus, it’s not borrowing anything just now. But if they need to in the future, the rates will be lower than the uk because the debt burden in Ireland is lower.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

puff the dragon

10-10-2019, 11:09 PM

Ireland is running a surplus, it’s not borrowing anything just now. But if they need to in the future, the rates will be lower than the uk because the debt burden in Ireland is lower.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

running a surplus and borrowing are not the same thing.

they are running a surplus because they have put measures in to stimulate the economy - hence negative interest rates.

they have debt - just the 230 billion euros or 48k per head https://commodity.com/debt-clock/ireland/ (compared to UK 1.8 trillion pounds or £33k per head)

your statement sounds better for your argument tho so who cares about reality.

Ozyhibby

10-10-2019, 11:20 PM

running a surplus and borrowing are not the same thing.

they are running a surplus because they have put measures in to stimulate the economy - hence negative interest rates.

they have debt - just the 230 billion euros or 48k per head https://commodity.com/debt-clock/ireland/ (compared to UK 1.8 trillion pounds or £33k per head)

your statement sounds better for your argument tho so who cares about reality.

Or you could put it as Irish debt = 68% of gdp compared with UK debt = 86% of gdp.
And the UK’s debt is still rising. Ireland are reducing theirs.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

puff the dragon

11-10-2019, 05:47 AM

Or you could put it as Irish debt = 68% of gdp compared with UK debt = 86% of gdp.
And the UK’s debt is still rising. Ireland are reducing theirs.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

We've been over GDP - Ireland's is higher year on year due to stimulation measures like negative interest rates increasing output. They have the challenge of keeping output at that level - if they do them good for them,

This is the problem with these selective stats:
Is Ireland's GDP higher per head than Scotland in 2018? - yes
Is Ireland's debt as a % of GDP lower than that of the U.K. For 2018? yes
What does that mean? - in reality very little, but to a Scottish independence or EU remain propagandist it means Ireland is booming as an independent nation because that's what they want to see.

These are statements you will never see the SNP release or a credible EU remain politician as they don't stand up to scrutiny despite being factually correct. They are happy for the loyal to spout them to anyone who will listen tho.

I wouldn't be anti Scottish independence if the evidence was there to support it - the problem is it isn't and nobody is properly answering the questions. If you want to win any rerun of 2014 then the people you need to convince are not going to blindly accept these statements without proper scrutiny as they were burned in 2016.

As for EU, we are where we are - the vote has been run and there is no point having it again (an overturn would only increase division). In my opinion it's time to draw a line under it, get a deal and move in. This will be the EU and UKs desire so one will be struck next week. We then leave the EU treaties but will find ourselves effectively living under the same rules we do today anyway rendering the whole thing pointless (but over)

lapsedhibee

11-10-2019, 06:09 AM

We've been over GDP - Ireland's is higher year on year due to stimulation measures like negative interest rates increasing output. They have the challenge of keeping output at that level - if they do them good for them,

This is the problem with these selective stats:
Is Ireland's GDP higher per head than Scotland in 2018? - yes
Is Ireland's debt as a % of GDP lower than that of the U.K. For 2018? yes
What does that mean? - in reality very little, but to a Scottish independence or EU remain propagandist it means Ireland is booming as an independent nation because that's what they want to see.

These are statements you will never see the SNP release or a credible EU remain politician as they don't stand up to scrutiny despite being factually correct. They are happy for the loyal to spout them to anyone who will listen tho.

I wouldn't be anti Scottish independence if the evidence was there to support it - the problem is it isn't and nobody is properly answering the questions. If you want to win any rerun of 2014 then the people you need to convince are not going to blindly accept these statements without proper scrutiny as they were burned in 2016.

As for EU, we are where we are - the vote has been run and there is no point having it again (an overturn would only increase division). In my opinion it's time to draw a line under it, get a deal and move in. This will be the EU and UKs desire so one will be struck next week. We then leave the EU treaties but will find ourselves effectively living under the same rules we do today anyway rendering the whole thing pointless (but over)
Doubt if it will be over, and the cause of that will be the Leave crazies who have deliberately, calculatedly, stoked up divisions so that they could 'win'.

puff the dragon

11-10-2019, 06:17 AM

Doubt if it will be over, and the cause of that will be the Leave crazies who have deliberately, calculatedly, stoked up divisions so that they could 'win'.

over from the point of view that the referendum result has been implemented and we’ve avoided falling off the no-deal cliff.

fixing the divisions on the other hand has nothing to do with brexit and would require some investment and time into looking at the causes of such divisions (which won’t be done as it’s too hard and would mean one side actually having to talk to the other side with respect and like human beings - something severely lacking in all sides of society).

grunt

11-10-2019, 06:42 AM

on the 1st of November it’s all over and we move onIt will never be over.

Hibbyradge

11-10-2019, 07:21 AM

not denying they will find other routes - the point is they would rather not. Combined with keeping their large % of exports to their closest neighbour tariff free they need a deal.

everyone is poorer with a no deal brexit, it won’t be risked so a deal will be struck for the 31st. This is the point I’m making - I’m not making a leave or remain argument, just commenting on what is actually going to happen.

I agree with you up to the bit about 31 October.

All the same problems existed in March, but we didn't find a last minute deal then.

There are noises about a "pathway" to a deal, but I continue to have my doubts.

Ozyhibby

11-10-2019, 08:06 AM

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191011/dd87b127a6a5c419e530020800992658.jpg

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

SHODAN

11-10-2019, 08:14 AM

on the 1st of November it’s all over and we move on

If we've left on the 1st of November then I, and many others, will immediately be starting the campaign to rejoin. You can bet on that. :aok:

Cataplana

11-10-2019, 08:54 AM

If we've left on the 1st of November then I, and many others, will immediately be starting the campaign to rejoin. You can bet on that. :aok:

Start now by telling me why that will be better for me. I think I'm happier in the EU, but I don't really know why.

Cataplana

11-10-2019, 08:55 AM

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191011/dd87b127a6a5c419e530020800992658.jpg

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Irish minister last night talking about how much of taxation is self assessed. I think they are close to an agreement. Deal with the tax avoidance later!

Ozyhibby

11-10-2019, 08:59 AM

Irish minister last night talking about how much of taxation is self assessed. I think they are close to an agreement. Deal with the tax avoidance later!

Crucial for the Tories. They could go along with just about anything so long as they don’t have to pay tax.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Pretty Boy

11-10-2019, 11:24 AM

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/10/the-dangerous-myth-of-the-bad-border-in-northern-ireland/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

This is quite a decent take on the Irish border issue. It's an interesting alternative perspective that paints a picture of the complexity of the situation.

lapsedhibee

11-10-2019, 12:04 PM

southsider

11-10-2019, 12:08 PM

Ozyhibby

11-10-2019, 12:47 PM

Sounds like it’s the UK who has caved to get the talks moved on. EU says their position remains unchanged.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Pretty Boy

11-10-2019, 01:27 PM

Very pro Tory / Unionist piece.

I assumed that went without saying given the source.

I still find it interesting to read an opinion and perspective from the other side even if it's not something I agree with.

Mibbes Aye

11-10-2019, 01:42 PM

I assumed that went without saying given the source.

I still find it interesting to read an opinion and perspective from the other side even if it's not something I agree with.

:agree: I subscribe to the Telegraph website and try and read ConservativeHome once a day on that basis. Being confident in your view means being able to feel challenged and understand why.

Fife-Hibee

11-10-2019, 02:11 PM

Start now by telling me why that will be better for me. I think I'm happier in the EU, but I don't really know why.

The freedom to live, work or simply travel across most of Europe with next to no barriers. Free trade as opposed to tariff trade. Each member has an equal veto, regardless of their respected size, something that would never exist at Westmister. An independent Scotland in the EU has a considerably more powerful Scottish parliament than what we have right now. The European Union rivals that of both the US and China, which protects small nations like ours from being pressured into accepting shoddy trade deals. Then you have thousands of pieces of legislation ('red tape' as brexiteers see it) that protect things such as workers rights, food standards and trading standards. Businesses can expand over 28 countries without visa requirements or immigration barriers.

These are just a few things. Here's a list of reasons why the UK should never have "chosen" to leave the European Union. - https://smallbusinessprices.co.uk/remain-eu/

Ozyhibby

11-10-2019, 02:13 PM

And Alex Massie is one of the best writers on the independence debate IMO even though I share very little of his views on that subject.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

DaveF

11-10-2019, 03:12 PM

Lloyds shares up almost 12% today. Maybe I should sell before the talks collapse.

JeMeSouviens

11-10-2019, 04:57 PM

Farage getting ready to call betrayal:

Nigel Farage @Nigel_Farage

I don't know what @BorisJohnson
has given away, but he sounds very defensive. Let us hope that this is not a surrender.

Moulin Yarns

11-10-2019, 05:18 PM

There is still a Downside, but it's alright according to Cataplana, we don't want immigration!

A Home Office minister said EU citizens may be forced to leave the UK if they do not sign up to the EU settlement scheme by the end of 2020

https://t.co/01m9MSqjtU

cabbageandribs1875

11-10-2019, 07:46 PM

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-news-latest-brexit-deal-talks-eu-barnier-tunnel-a9151946.html?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR3R7EcBYuj1HqWE-Bz5vM_188z_3is0XCy0M81U1s1cfOklbuQJl6AG3Iw#Echobox =1570795617

Unionists have vowed to kill off any Brexit (https://independent.co.uk/topic/brexit) deal which keeps Northern Ireland in the EU’s customs union, amid fears that Boris Johnson is ready to make the province a “sacrificial lamb” to secure an agreement with Brussels.

i'm thinking loudmouth big shot johnson has bent over, i'l do this, i'l do that

Smartie

11-10-2019, 07:55 PM

cabbageandribs1875

11-10-2019, 08:00 PM

Do the DUP have the power to do that?

They're just another wee party now all those Tories have deserted the government, are they not?

Are they not just another 8 votes?

according to that link they can :dunno:

The DUP’s reaction to any agreement is likely to be crucial because it cannot be passed without their MPs’ votes, and because many Tory Brexiteers have in the past taken their lead from the Northern Irish party.

lapsedhibee

12-10-2019, 07:14 AM

The DUP’s reaction to any agreement is likely to be crucial because it cannot be passed without their MPs’ votes, and because many Tory Brexiteers have in the past taken their lead from the Northern Irish party.

Rees Mogg has frequently publicly spouted that the ERG will only agree to stuff if the DUP are ok with it, but never explained why. I don't believe that most of the ERG care that much about The Precious Union. The DUP aren't in any way representative of Norniron as a whole - perhaps it's that fact, that they're an unrepresentative minority too, that fuels the bond.

Colr

12-10-2019, 07:27 AM

Lloyds shares up almost 12% today. Maybe I should sell before the talks collapse.

Someone could make lot of money from this volatility.

lapsedhibee

12-10-2019, 08:48 AM

Someone could make lot of money from this volatility.

Let's hope that no-one except Johnson knew that he was going to make a sudden dramatic change in his policy this week. If he had given advance warning to just a couple of his backers, say, they might have unfairly benefited financially, which he would have been appalled at.

southsider

12-10-2019, 10:03 AM

Let's hope that no-one except Johnson knew that he was going to make a sudden dramatic change in his policy this week. If he had given advance warning to just a couple of his backers, say, they might have unfairly benefited financially, which he would have been appalled at.
Fancy that ! Many might call that insider trading but Boris would never break the law, would he ?

Cataplana

12-10-2019, 12:22 PM

Fancy that ! Many might call that insider trading but Boris would never break the law, would he ?

I would be more annoyed if he hadn't called me first.

RyeSloan

12-10-2019, 12:26 PM

Fancy that ! Many might call that insider trading but Boris would never break the law, would he ?

Last week it was they were making millions shorting the pound, this week it’s making millions long on the pound and RBS....

In other words it’s nonsense but hey a good little narrative none the less.

I actually saw a quote from a fund manager that said anyone trading the pound just now is facing a moment of maximum danger as it could whipsaw any which way. That’s not fertile ground for any speculator to make fortunes without risking a hell of a lot at the same time.

lapsedhibee

12-10-2019, 12:30 PM

Last week it was they were making millions shorting the pound, this week it’s making millions long on the pound and RBS....

In other words it’s nonsense but hey a good little narrative none the less.

I actually saw a quote from a fund manager that said anyone trading the pound just now is facing a moment of maximum danger as it could whipsaw any which way. That’s not fertile ground for any speculator to make fortunes without risking a hell of a lot at the same time.

On the contrary, it's extremely fertile ground for anyone who knows even a tiny amount, a tiny bit in advance, of the herd.

Future17

12-10-2019, 12:32 PM

Last week it was they were making millions shorting the pound, this week it’s making millions long on the pound and RBS....

In other words it’s nonsense but hey a good little narrative none the less.

I actually saw a quote from a fund manager that said anyone trading the pound just now is facing a moment of maximum danger as it could whipsaw any which way. That’s not fertile ground for any speculator to make fortunes without risking a hell of a lot at the same time.

It probably is nonsense, but the original point wasn't about speculators; it was about knowing something was going to happen before it did.

RyeSloan

12-10-2019, 02:19 PM

It probably is nonsense, but the original point wasn't about speculators; it was about knowing something was going to happen before it did.

So basically we are saying Boris is regularly partaking in insider dealing and market manipulation to get his buddies rich?

While at the same time being able to predict the utterances of the EU to what ever he says, how those will be interpreted, the market reaction to all of that and ultimately which way the pound is going to react.

Then of course all of these pals getting this early heads up have to position themselves on the correct side of the trade at the correct time to make sure they don’t lose what they have already won.

Anything is always possible I suppose...

lapsedhibee

12-10-2019, 02:58 PM

So basically we are saying Boris is regularly partaking in insider dealing and market manipulation to get his buddies rich?

While at the same time being able to predict the utterances of the EU to what ever he says, how those will be interpreted, the market reaction to all of that and ultimately which way the pound is going to react.

Then of course all of these pals getting this early heads up have to position themselves on the correct side of the trade at the correct time to make sure they don’t lose what they have already won.

Anything is always possible I suppose...

It's not the rocket surgery you're making it out to be. When a deal looks likely, the pound goes up. When it looks unlikely, the pound goes down. You talk as if the very idea of Downing St manipulating the news shocks you.

Moulin Yarns

12-10-2019, 03:15 PM

RyeSloan

12-10-2019, 03:32 PM

It's not the rocket surgery you're making it out to be. When a deal looks likely, the pound goes up. When it looks unlikely, the pound goes down. You talk as if the very idea of Downing St manipulating the news shocks you.

Yeah sure currency trading is a child’s game, of course it is. I mean why are we not all doing it considering it’s so straight forward!

The fact is it’s easy only in hindsight. You have to have your bets placed before hand...that’s the point is it not? Boris letting his pals in ahead of the game?

Ergo you are suggesting Boris knows what’s going to happen and is insider trading his pals to make then rich. If that’s not what you are saying then what are you saying?

Jack

12-10-2019, 05:04 PM

Hibbyradge

12-10-2019, 05:13 PM

lapsedhibee

12-10-2019, 05:24 PM

Yeah sure currency trading is a child’s game, of course it is. I mean why are we not all doing it considering it’s so straight forward!

The fact is it’s easy only in hindsight. You have to have your bets placed before hand...that’s the point is it not? Boris letting his pals in ahead of the game?

Ergo you are suggesting Boris knows what’s going to happen and is insider trading his pals to make then rich. If that’s not what you are saying then what are you saying?

Johnson surmising that the game's nearly up for him (as there's no possible way to keep nutjobs like Francois and Foster happy as well as sane, rational people like Barnier) why wouldn't he take the opportunity to make a few million on his way out? That's a not unreasonable way to explain him going from 'Here's the deal, take it or leave it EU' to convincing Varadkar he'd be happy to scrap its main features, without telling any of the cabinet, 48 hours later. That's what Trump would do if he was bright enough to recognise that the game was up for him, and Johnson's Britain Trump, but (much) brighter.

If I got the heads up what was likely to happen it makes it a damn sight less of a gamble.

How do you think inside trading happens?

I'm not saying that there has been any in this instance, but it really wouldn't be difficult.

Boris Johnson has been talking to the EU. He knows what they need in order to take negotiations to the next level.

He tells persons unknown that he's going to concede to that demand.

The pound will strengthen once the news becomes public.

Said persons sell their Euros or do whatever they need to do to make money.

These.

Moulin Yarns

12-10-2019, 06:30 PM

Well, that was fun. I've just experienced the Brexit future, sitting happily reading when the power failed! Not just me but it turns out that 8,000 properties were affected. An hour and a half before it was restored, thankfully it was light enough at the beginning to run round and get all the candles ready. So much for the pizza!! Crisps and some thrown together dips and juice for supper.

CloudSquall

13-10-2019, 09:06 AM

Who said the Germans didn't have any humour? :greengrin

https://twitter.com/BluesWolff/status/1183126192976732166

Callum_62

13-10-2019, 12:02 PM

Do Labour ever discuss what they actually stand for?

Always contradict each other in public

Sent from my VOG-L29 using Tapatalk

Colr

13-10-2019, 04:08 PM

Do Labour ever discuss what they actually stand for?

Always contradict each other in public

Sent from my VOG-L29 using Tapatalk

Corbyn’s spent his life contradicting the party line but someone should explain that he should stop that when he is in charge (supposedly)

Ozyhibby

14-10-2019, 08:00 PM

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191014/6d5f8307b2ee3b94d2ac7ac05ad03caf.jpg

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

GlesgaeHibby

14-10-2019, 08:43 PM

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191014/6d5f8307b2ee3b94d2ac7ac05ad03caf.jpg

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Another hung parliament?

Bristolhibby

15-10-2019, 08:46 AM

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191014/6d5f8307b2ee3b94d2ac7ac05ad03caf.jpg

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I never see what these percentages mean in actual seats. As that’s all that matters.

SNP with 50 odd seats never feature in these polls.

And Brexit, even with those percentages would unlikely get any seats.

J

Ozyhibby

15-10-2019, 09:31 AM

I never see what these percentages mean in actual seats. As that’s all that matters.

SNP with 50 odd seats never feature in these polls.

And Brexit, even with those percentages would unlikely get any seats.

J

Agree, they just give a snap shot of the direction of travel. This GE will likely have a massive amount of tactical voting so there will be surprise results all over.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

mjhibby

15-10-2019, 10:21 AM

This will be the hardest election ever to predict. The one thing these polls don't reflect is that the polls on staying or leaving are averaging 53-47 for staying and the thousands of extra remain votes could we'll swing a lot of marginals against the Tories. Noticeably we haven't had anything from Cummings in the last few days. I wonder if he has been muzzled. Even the telegraph not confident of a Tory win even if a deal is done. All depends how much Johnson has caved in. Farage will destroy Johnson in an election if it's staying in all but name. Can't stand our Nigel but just do your stuff during the election then just bugger off after that

Kato

15-10-2019, 10:22 AM

So basically we are saying Boris is regularly partaking in insider dealing and market manipulation to get his buddies rich?

While at the same time being able to predict the utterances of the EU to what ever he says, how those will be interpreted, the market reaction to all of that and ultimately which way the pound is going to react.

Then of course all of these pals getting this early heads up have to position themselves on the correct side of the trade at the correct time to make sure they don’t lose what they have already won.

Anything is always possible I suppose...

Crispin Odey's firm, a sponsor of Johnson and a well known hedge funder who has already cashed in twice through Brexit related fluctuations in the pound, has a £300M bet on the pound crashing after 31st October.

That's just one.

It's not a case of "anything is possible", it's happening right in front of your eyes with all the details available.

mjhibby

15-10-2019, 10:26 AM

Linton Cosby said in the Tories at war programme well just have to take the pain to get the Tories back in power. They aren't hiding their actions at all. The Tory party is there to serve vested interests and they are being manipulated in clear sight. Nothing possible about it. The whole nonsense of Johnson has been planned ever since Cameron stood down. It will all come out in the wash

mjhibby

15-10-2019, 10:30 AM

Johnson surmising that the game's nearly up for him (as there's no possible way to keep nutjobs like Francois and Foster happy as well as sane, rational people like Barnier) why wouldn't he take the opportunity to make a few million on his way out? That's a not unreasonable way to explain him going from 'Here's the deal, take it or leave it EU' to convincing Varadkar he'd be happy to scrap its main features, without telling any of the cabinet, 48 hours later. That's what Trump would do if he was bright enough to recognise that the game was up for him, and Johnson's Britain Trump, but (much) brighter.

These.

Very suspicious of whether Johnson is conceding much at all. Could well be as you have said and he'll go into the election saying I tried my hardest. Very unusual how nothing has been leaked. Could it be there is nothing to leak and it's all just a charade to say they are all trying to get a deal. Hard to believe they can sort a deal in a few days when they haven't been able too in over three years. Sounds we are going to get one gigantic fudge.

lapsedhibee

15-10-2019, 10:33 AM

the polls on staying or leaving are averaging 53-47 for staying

Particularly pointless exercises, those, since as any fule no the true will of the people can only be established in a leap year.

RyeSloan

15-10-2019, 10:49 AM

Crispin Odey's firm, a sponsor of Johnson and a well known hedge funder who has already cashed in twice through Brexit related fluctuations in the pound, has a £300M bet on the pound crashing after 31st October.

That's just one.

It's not a case of "anything is possible", it's happening right in front of your eyes with all the details available.

Well if it doesn’t crash then he’s gonna lose a lot of dough.

Are we saying that Boris has already worked out what’s gonna happen between now and then, how the EU will react and how the Benn bill will play out in terms of the value of the pound on 1st November and tipped off Odey?

Cataplana

15-10-2019, 10:55 AM

Well if it doesn’t crash then he’s gonna lose a lot of dough.

Are we saying that Boris has already worked out what’s gonna happen between now and then, how the EU will react and how the Benn bill will play out in terms of the value of the pound on 1st November and tipped off Odey?

Its a bit like saying Hibs won't win the league this year. You just know.

RyeSloan

15-10-2019, 10:56 AM

Its a bit like saying Hibs won't win the league this year. You just know.

Well his bet is going the wrong way just now then...pound has been strengthening substantially against the dollar and the euro the last few weeks...Boris better hope Odey can cover the margin calls on his £300m.

Kato

15-10-2019, 11:10 AM

Well his bet is going the wrong way just now then...pound has been strengthening substantially against the dollar and the euro the last few weeks...Boris better hope Odey can cover the margin calls on his £300m.

That only helps him, if the pound is doing well it falls from a greater height - more cash for him.

RyeSloan

15-10-2019, 11:18 AM

That only helps him, if the pound is doing well it falls from a greater height - more cash for him.

Thats not how it works but hey ho it’s already been called simple and obvious and whatever in terms of currency speculating and insider trading on here so I’ll leave this here.

Edit: Oh and just a few final details. The Odey short called out above is not actually a currency short at all. It’s the total value of Odey Asset Managements short bets against some UK stocks. Those shorts are on the likes of Metro Bank, Royal Mail, AA, Lookers etc...Shorts that have been in play for some time and clearly aligned to companies that are already in troubled waters and not exactly linked to Brexit.
And finally Odey clearly should stop following Boris’ tips as the fund he runs (swan Fund) performance has been crap and has lost money since the referendum so not exactly making the easy millions suggested.

Cataplana

15-10-2019, 11:53 AM

Kato

15-10-2019, 12:04 PM

Thats not how it works but hey ho it’s already been called simple and obvious and whatever in terms of currency speculating and insider trading on here so I’ll leave this here.

Edit: Oh and just a few final details. The Odey short called out above is not actually a currency short at all. It’s the total value of Odey Asset Managements short bets against some UK stocks. Those shorts are on the likes of Metro Bank, Royal Mail, AA, Lookers etc...Shorts that have been in play for some time and clearly aligned to companies that are already in troubled waters and not exactly linked to Brexit.
And finally Odey clearly should stop following Boris’ tips as the fund he runs (swan Fund) performance has been crap and has lost money since the referendum so not exactly making the easy millions suggested.

I bow to your greater knowledge of the mechanics. I will say Odey won't be financing him on the off-chance he improves the NHS or homelessness and will be in it looking for a profit.

A more interesting stroy could be developing with these guys who are trying to uncover more information on Alexander Temerko, another Tory financier and his possible links to teh Russian military and govt.

https://twitter.com/nicktolhurst/status/1182630203287363585

cabbageandribs1875

15-10-2019, 03:34 PM

22628

:Ummm::Ummm::Ummm:

Jack Hackett

15-10-2019, 07:41 PM

The money markets are responding with great optimism at the news that a deal is imminent. The pound is now at an 18 month high against the euro. If you're going eurozone in the next few months, and have spare cash just lying around, then get yours while you can because I suspect a small crash will swiftly follow when reality bites

SHODAN

16-10-2019, 09:16 AM

Looks like Johnson can't get the DUP onside.

southsider

16-10-2019, 10:18 AM

Looks like Johnson can't get the DUP onside.

They need to change their name to the democratic No Party as that’s all they ever do.

mjhibby

16-10-2019, 10:18 AM

I think Johnson thinks the bill will pass it just out exhaustion with brexit. We shall see. It seems it's roughly the same proposal Mrs may said no prime minister could vote for. Does that mean that she and all her supporters won't vote for it. We know the answer. The Tory party are utter hypocrites with no morals,backbone or loyalty to anybody bar the rich and entitled. How the fffff folk can't see this is beyond me.

Hibby70

16-10-2019, 10:35 AM

Mark Francois losing it a bit on BBC news when the loud hailer guy was shouting over him.

Called him an idiot and was clearly getting to him.

lapsedhibee

16-10-2019, 10:47 AM

Mark Francois losing it a bit on BBC news when the loud hailer guy was shouting over him.

Called him an idiot and was clearly getting to him.

Absolute outrage if the nation was being denied the chance to hear his words of wisdom. What was he trying to say, that his dad would never have laid down his arms in the way that Johnson's now contemplating?

Ozyhibby

16-10-2019, 12:25 PM

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191016/eea89a4abe5f749cd7933ae23ace0788.jpg

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Ozyhibby

16-10-2019, 12:42 PM

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191016/6995bd64be8a541e73515b4aa08d4abf.jpg

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

BroxburnHibee

16-10-2019, 05:12 PM

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191016/6995bd64be8a541e73515b4aa08d4abf.jpg

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

No offered her enough cash yet.

lapsedhibee

16-10-2019, 05:17 PM

No offered her enough cash yet.
Which, if she takes it, can next election be portrayed by the UUP, for the purposes of making their comeback, as a betrayal of the Union. So perhaps money won't do the trick on this occasion.

Colr

16-10-2019, 06:00 PM

Which, if she takes it, can next election be portrayed by the UUP, for the purposes of making their comeback, as a betrayal of the Union. So perhaps money won't do the trick on this occasion.

They would be better employed finding 20 labour MPs who could be persuaded to back the deal.

Moulin Yarns

16-10-2019, 09:16 PM

Have we agreed a deal yet? 😁

CloudSquall

16-10-2019, 09:35 PM

Scottish Tories standing up for Scotland yet again,

https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1184426365371715585

https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1184468100407803905

Callum_62

16-10-2019, 09:37 PM

Couldn't we have had this deal 2 years ago.?

Sent from my VOG-L29 using Tapatalk

Ozyhibby

16-10-2019, 09:38 PM

Scottish Tories standing up for Scotland yet again,

https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1184426365371715585

https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1184468100407803905

It was ever thus. Their nationalism comes first before anything else. Loyalty to the flag is more important to them than any concern for the economic well being of Scotland.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Callum_62

16-10-2019, 10:14 PM

What do the Scottish tories actually do for Scotland?

Sent from my VOG-L29 using Tapatalk

Hibrandenburg

16-10-2019, 10:44 PM

What do the Scottish tories actually do for Scotland?

Sent from my VOG-L29 using Tapatalk

Keep us in the Union.

Bristolhibby

16-10-2019, 11:26 PM

It was ever thus. Their nationalism comes first before anything else. Loyalty to the flag is more important to them than any concern for the economic well being of Scotland.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

You mean Loyalty to the Party.

J

Ozyhibby

17-10-2019, 12:28 AM

You mean Loyalty to the Party.

J

Difficult to say, I haven’t heard a single conservative policy idea from them in a very long time. Lots of Union flag waving though.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Moulin Yarns

17-10-2019, 01:12 AM

Couldn't we have had this deal 2 years ago.?

Sent from my VOG-L29 using Tapatalk

There is no deal that will pass parliament.

CloudSquall

17-10-2019, 06:29 AM

DUP released a statement to say they can't accept the deal as it stands.

GlesgaeHibby

17-10-2019, 06:32 AM

DUP released a statement to say they can't accept the deal as it stands.

Not surprising. Not sure even with DUP support it would pass. How many expelled former Tories will support?

Jack

17-10-2019, 07:10 AM

Not surprising. Not sure even with DUP support it would pass. How many expelled former Tories will support?

I'm fairly sure that when the political commentators talk about 'the numbers' they will have spoken to those members most likely to be an unknown quantity like the former Torys and will have a fair idea of their intentions. That goes for the members of all parties likely to swither.

Edit. At this time it would be foolhardy to predict anything from anyone or any party.

Moulin Yarns

17-10-2019, 07:54 AM

DUP released a statement to say they can't accept the deal as it stands.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50077760

You heard it here first :greengrin

There is no deal that will pass parliament.

Boris Johnson
Well I, um, I got the best deal but I, um, I can't get parliamentary agreement. What more could I, um, I do. It was the best deal available and now the DUP, um, DUP have stopped Britain from carrying out the will, um, will of the people. :wink:

lapsedhibee

17-10-2019, 08:22 AM

Couldn't we have had this deal 2 years ago.?

Ah no, you see because it's only the imminent threat of No Deal and the overblown hype about Surrender, Betrayal, Traitors, etc - in other words the marvellous negotiating and oratorical skills of the present PM - that have brought EU dictators to their knees and obliged them to agree to re-open the Withdrawal Act.

SHODAN

17-10-2019, 08:25 AM

What do the Scottish tories actually do for Scotland?

Sent from my VOG-L29 using Tapatalk

Tell us we have to take whatever **** the latest despot throws at us because we voted No in 2014 whilst also telling us we can't change our minds.

Moulin Yarns

17-10-2019, 09:00 AM

Things are getting interesting. Loads of wheeling and dealing

Labour MP Hilary Benn says he would vote in favour of Boris Johnson's Brexit deal in Parliament on Saturday if an amendment was made promising a new referendum.
He said the offer of a "confirmatory referendum" would be a good compromise for the government to come to.
"We cannot continue to push this down the road and therefore the offer of a confirmatory referendum is in the middle," he said.
Mr Benn, who introduced the Act of Parliament designed to prevent a no-deal Brexit on 31 October, said he would campaign to remain in the EU in the event of another referendum.

Fife-Hibee

17-10-2019, 09:08 AM

What do the Scottish tories actually do for Scotland?

Nothing. They haven't been elected to do anything in Scotland in over 6 decades. Despite us being in a situation where we have a tory Prime Minister dictating brexit terms over us that we never voted for.

Peevemor

17-10-2019, 09:22 AM

Things are getting interesting. Loads of wheeling and dealing

Labour MPs to be whipped to back confirmatory referendum if parliament sits on Saturday.

Looks like they're getting ready for a deal being reached.

southsider

17-10-2019, 09:34 AM

Labour MPs to be whipped to back confirmatory referendum if parliament sits on Saturday.

Looks like they're getting ready for a deal being reached.

What will happen, mark my words Labour push Boris’s deal through... once through Boris cancels agreed EU ref 2.

Moulin Yarns

17-10-2019, 09:45 AM

https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/882148227906228224/Vjpsr0BS_bigger.jpg

(https://twitter.com/JunckerEU)

Jean-Claude Juncker

(https://twitter.com/JunckerEU)

@JunckerEU

(https://twitter.com/JunckerEU)

Where there is a will, there is a #deal (https://twitter.com/hashtag/deal?src=hashtag_click) - we have one! It’s a fair and balanced agreement for the EU and the UK and it is testament to our commitment to find solutions. I recommend that #EUCO (https://twitter.com/hashtag/EUCO?src=hashtag_click) endorses this deal.

Wait for Saturday.

BroxburnHibee

17-10-2019, 09:47 AM

Wait for Saturday.

So does this make the so called 'Benn Act' null and void?

Hibrandenburg

17-10-2019, 09:48 AM

So to summarise the deal, it gives Northern Ireland that what its government doesn't want and denies Scotland what its government wants.

:confused:

JeMeSouviens

17-10-2019, 09:49 AM

So does this make the so called 'Benn Act' null and void?

Only if the deal passes the House of Commons - the so called "meaningful vote".

Peevemor

17-10-2019, 09:52 AM

Only if the deal passes the House of Commons - the so called "meaningful vote".

It seems the DUP still aren't happy and we still don't know how the 25 ex-tories will vote.

This'll make for an interesting Saturday assuming the deal is agreed by the EU later today.

Moulin Yarns

17-10-2019, 09:56 AM

So does this make the so called 'Benn Act' null and void?

I would say it puts it on the back burner, because there is no guarantee that a majority in parliament will approve the deal on Saturday. If approved then it means the Benn Act is not required, if the deal fails to get approval then the Benn Act comes into play. At least, that's the way I see it playing out.

Moulin Yarns

17-10-2019, 09:59 AM

It seems the DUP still aren't happy and we still don't know how the 25 ex-tories will vote.

This'll make for an interesting Saturday assuming the deal is agreed by the EU later today.

Junker recommends agreement, there will be agreement in the EU, unless there is a bombshell hiding there because nobody else has seen it, and it is all about the Irish border.

I'm going to be busy on Saturday so will rely on updates here folks :wink: Can someone start a Brexit matchday thread?

JeMeSouviens

17-10-2019, 10:02 AM

We are essentially back to December 2017 - NI in the SM/CU (technically they're not quite in the CU but they are signed up to follow all its regulations so, de facto, they are).

Johnson has thrown the DUP under his bus and the ERG have sold them out.

Fife-Hibee

17-10-2019, 10:03 AM

It seems the DUP still aren't happy and we still don't know how the 25 ex-tories will vote.

Nothing that a little shake of the tree at the tax payers expense can't fix.

JeMeSouviens

17-10-2019, 10:04 AM

It seems the DUP still aren't happy and we still don't know how the 25 ex-tories will vote.

This'll make for an interesting Saturday assuming the deal is agreed by the EU later today.

One suggestion is that the EU will announce in advance of Saturday that they won't offer another extension unless this deal passes. Thus forcing parliament to choose between this deal or no deal.

Peevemor

17-10-2019, 10:06 AM

One suggestion is that the EU will announce in advance of Saturday that they won't offer another extension unless this deal passes. Thus forcing parliament to choose between this deal or no deal.

Or remain.

JeMeSouviens

17-10-2019, 10:10 AM

Or remain.

True - but don't think they have the required cojones to just revoke a50.

A ref#2 amendment bolted on to the deal has some chance but not sure the EU would agree the necessary delay? They might if parliament had passed the deal subject to ref. Then the EU know that at the end of any extension they are guaranteed either this deal or remain.

JeMeSouviens

17-10-2019, 10:13 AM

Corbyn -
This sell out deal won’t bring the country together and should be rejected. The best way to get Brexit sorted is to give the people the final say in a public vote.

Peevemor

17-10-2019, 10:14 AM

True - but don't think they have the required cojones to just revoke a50.

A ref#2 amendment bolted on to the deal has some chance but not sure the EU would agree the necessary delay? They might if parliament had passed the deal subject to ref. Then the EU know that at the end of any extension they are guaranteed either this deal or remain.

I think (hope) that's how it will go.

JeMeSouviens

17-10-2019, 10:23 AM

I think (hope) that's how it will go.

I hope so too. I think it'll be very close.

Callum_62

17-10-2019, 10:24 AM

Can someone explain in leymans terms why this is a better deal the May's one?

Sent from my VOG-L29 using Tapatalk

Onceinawhile

17-10-2019, 10:34 AM

Can someone explain in leymans terms why this is a better deal the May's one?

Sent from my VOG-L29 using Tapatalk

It isn't.

Cataplana

17-10-2019, 10:36 AM

Deals being done. Who saw that coming?

It's like the last three years have all been a charade; a distraction to allow the continuation of austerity policies.

JeMeSouviens

17-10-2019, 10:47 AM

Can someone explain in leymans terms why this is a better deal the May's one?

Sent from my VOG-L29 using Tapatalk

For Brexiteers the rationale is:

- May's deal kept the whole of the UK in a customs union with the EU unless/until technology arrived that allowed a non-visible border in Ireland
- you can't do separate free trade agreements with eg. the USA if you have to follow EU customs tariffs and regulations
- since no such tech exists or is likely to for decades, the UK wide backstop was essentially considered permanent.

- Johnson's deal keeps only NI under EU regulation
- thus GB is free to go buccaneering around the world. Bring on the hormone fed beef and the chlorinated chickens! Yay!

CloudSquall

17-10-2019, 10:51 AM

Looks like the ERG are behind the deal, still to be seen if the DUP will come around (most likely not).

Still struggling to see how he will get the deal through parliament.

Edit: DUP re-confirm that they won't vote for the deal.

Callum_62

17-10-2019, 10:56 AM

Looks like the ERG are behind the deal, still to be seen if the DUP will come around (most likely not).

Still struggling to see how he will get the deal through parliament.With a confirmatory ref attached and it will sail through

Or chucking enough money at folk

Sent from my VOG-L29 using Tapatalk

cabbageandribs1875

17-10-2019, 11:00 AM

who else thinks there will be another extension :greengrin

unless the terrorists chosen party gains another few £bn

Ozyhibby

17-10-2019, 11:11 AM

who else thinks there will be another extension :greengrin

unless the terrorists chosen party gains another few £bn

No amount of money will make the DUP vote for this. It leaves the EU in charge of NI trade, which means Dublin have more say then Westminster. And the nationalists will never let them leave because even if it looks like they might have the votes, the nationalists can just collapse the NI assembly which traps them in it forever.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

cabbageandribs1875

17-10-2019, 11:17 AM

Gove 'we don't contemplate defeat' is that the same as No Surrender

SHODAN

17-10-2019, 11:26 AM

Stick a 2nd ref on it and you're good to go. I reckon Johnson might go for that.

cabbageandribs1875

17-10-2019, 11:28 AM

No amount of money will make the DUP vote for this. It leaves the EU in charge of NI trade, which means Dublin have more say then Westminster. And the nationalists will never let them leave because even if it looks like they might have the votes, the nationalists can just collapse the NI assembly which traps them in it forever.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

MMmm should i then maybe praise the DUP for sticking to their guns(figure of speech), i'l stop short of calling them principled, ALL i care about is the chances of a YES vote at indy2, would this increase or decrease the chances of a YES vote prevailing :dunno:

Ozyhibby

17-10-2019, 11:28 AM

Stick a 2nd ref on it and you're good to go. I reckon Johnson might go for that.

The good thing is that this is the brexiteers deal. Put it to people in a 2nd ref and nobody sensible in England can complain about the result. In Scotland it’s a different matter if the result in Wngland doesn’t reflect the result here though.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Ozyhibby

17-10-2019, 11:34 AM

MMmm should i then maybe praise the DUP for sticking to their guns(figure of speech), i'l stop short of calling them principled, ALL i care about is the chances of a YES vote at indy2, would this increase or decrease the chances of a YES vote prevailing :dunno:

Difficult to say. Border will be an issue but so will the prospects of the privatisation of the NHS in any US trade deal and chlorinated chicken etc.
It definitely helps that there is no status quo. Change is going to happen no matter what. And independence within the EU needs to been seen as the much smaller change. Sell that and Yes wins.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Cataplana

17-10-2019, 11:43 AM

Difficult to say. Border will be an issue but so will the prospects of the privatisation of the NHS in any US trade deal and chlorinated chicken etc.
It definitely helps that there is no status quo. Change is going to happen no matter what. And independence within the EU needs to been seen as the much smaller change. Sell that and Yes wins.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

See this chlorinated chicken thing?

Is it any worse than plums walking about with beaks, or feeding beef burgers to swans? (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RxSbTlH0K4w)

Ozyhibby

17-10-2019, 11:51 AM

See this chlorinated chicken thing?

Is it any worse than plums walking about with beaks, or feeding beef burgers to swans? (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RxSbTlH0K4w)

I was only talking about it from a sales point of view. I have no idea if it’s a good thing or a bad thing. All I know is that it has such a bad rep now that people don’t want it. And the Yes campaign will use it.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Cataplana

17-10-2019, 11:58 AM

I was only talking about it from a sales point of view. I have no idea if it’s a good thing or a bad thing. All I know is that it has such a bad rep now that people don’t want it. And the Yes campaign will use it.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I am not for or against the chicken, personally, but I can see how it doesn't sound nice. I doubt it sounds very nice to Americans either, but they appear to be buying the stuff.

Put it this way, when I'm over there, and I see steak at half the price it is here, I'm not asking too many questions.

I think you are right though, it sounds like a vote winner. People seem much more interested in the headline than the story.

JeMeSouviens

17-10-2019, 11:58 AM

I was only talking about it from a sales point of view. I have no idea if it’s a good thing or a bad thing. All I know is that it has such a bad rep now that people don’t want it. And the Yes campaign will use it.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

The chlorination in itself isn't dangerous (I don't think) but the fact that they have such poor hygiene standards that they need to chlorinate in the first place makes it a big red flag.

matty_f

17-10-2019, 12:01 PM

Cataplana

17-10-2019, 12:04 PM

The chlorination in itself isn't dangerous (I don't think) but the fact that they have such poor hygiene standards that they need to chlorinate in the first place makes it a big red flag.

That's exactly the issue as far as I'm aware - the ability to chemically clean the chickens means that hygiene standards are significantly lower.

But if the chlorination solves the problem of the hygeine standards, are they actually a ongoing problem? Is the food safe to eat, or not?

Edit: is food poisoning a much bigger issue in the USA than it is here; is there reliable data on this?

I would rather we just kept going with what we know, and stick to our standards. But, are they actually necessary, or is it an example of the overly beaurocratic approach that so many cite as a good reason to leave Europe?

puff the dragon

17-10-2019, 12:04 PM

Cataplana

17-10-2019, 12:08 PM

DUP will back this through parliament - this is all part of the play book.

Will make them look like the good guys willing to compromise, Boris knows their backing already in the bag.

We're leaving - we move on - brexit closed.

I don't think willingness to compromise has ever been something their core voters have seen as a positive thing. Quite the opposite, in fact.

JeMeSouviens

17-10-2019, 12:10 PM

DUP will back this through parliament - this is all part of the play book.

Will make them look like the good guys willing to compromise, Boris knows their backing already in the bag.

We're leaving - we move on - brexit closed.

They just issued a statement saying they "won't support it in parliament".

Ozyhibby

17-10-2019, 12:14 PM

But if the chlorination solves the problem of the hygeine standards, are they actually a ongoing problem? Is the food safe to eat, or not?

Edit: is food poisoning a much bigger issue in the USA than it is here; is there reliable data on this?

I would rather we just kept going with what we know, and stick to our standards. But, are they actually necessary, or is it an example of the overly beaurocratic approach that so many cite as a good reason to leave Europe?

Your last paragraph is the SNP’s biggest weapon. The biggest group they need to win over to Yes is people who just want to carry on with what they know. And now brexit gives them their one and only chance to be on the side of less change.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

puff the dragon

17-10-2019, 12:14 PM

They just issued a statement saying they "won't support it in parliament".

It's only Thursday - they will back it on Saturday.

They are playing their part in scaring everybody down the no deal barrel until the last minute.

They have to make themselves look relevant, what better way than to be king maker on Saturday!

Cataplana

17-10-2019, 12:27 PM

puff the dragon

17-10-2019, 12:35 PM

Your last paragraph is the SNP’s biggest weapon. The biggest group they need to win over to Yes is people who just want to carry on with what they know. And now brexit gives them their one and only chance to be on the side of less change.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

So - you argue that the biggest weapon is that they can now convince people that side on caution to back independence because it's 'less change'.

Say theoretically the SNP get their second referendum (they won't but park that reality for now), we're now saying that it's going to be easier to convince these people that leaving both the EU & the U.K. is less change than just leaving the EU (which will be normality by the time the theoretical 2nd Indy ref comes around).

Surely it would easier to convince them if brexit was a success as they may not be as cautious?

Logic and nats don't mix eh

mjhibby

17-10-2019, 12:37 PM

They just issued a statement saying they "won't support it in parliament".

Johnson has always planned on it being mays rehashed deal or no deal. It hasn't worked before and i doubt it will work now. We are back where we were after Mays third defeat imho.

Ozyhibby

17-10-2019, 12:39 PM

So - you argue that the biggest weapon is that they can now convince people that side on caution to back independence because it's 'less change'.

Say theoretically the SNP get their second referendum (they won't but park that reality for now), we're now saying that it's going to be easier to convince these people that leaving both the EU & the U.K. is less change than just leaving the EU (which will be normality by the time the theoretical 2nd Indy ref comes around).

Surely it would easier to convince them if brexit was a success as they may not be as cautious?

Logic and nats don't mix eh

The SNP are not advocating leaving the EU?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

heretoday

17-10-2019, 12:40 PM

The DUP eh? What are they like?

Cataplana

17-10-2019, 12:52 PM

So - you argue that the biggest weapon is that they can now convince people that side on caution to back independence because it's 'less change'.

Say theoretically the SNP get their second referendum (they won't but park that reality for now), we're now saying that it's going to be easier to convince these people that leaving both the EU & the U.K. is less change than just leaving the EU (which will be normality by the time the theoretical 2nd Indy ref comes around).

Surely it would easier to convince them if brexit was a success as they may not be as cautious?

Logic and nats don't mix eh

If Brexit is a success, is that not proof that the UK works?

puff the dragon

17-10-2019, 12:58 PM

The SNP are not advocating leaving the EU?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Which is irrelevant to your argument about their 'biggest weapon'.

Fact is we are leaving wether the SNP agrees with it or not. The change is happening, a vote for independence isn't going to stop us leaving the EU.

You will be asking them if they want to change from stay in the U.K. to leave the U.K from a position of no longer being in the EU anyway. Surely if they were change adverse then they won't be backing independence for more change? Brexit is hardly a great weapon in convincing these people.

Keep on dreaming about your Indy Scotland tho lads - it's never going to happen but if it keeps you happy then there is some benefit to it

puff the dragon

17-10-2019, 01:00 PM

If Brexit is a success, is that not proof that the UK works?

Absolutely - hence why this being the SNP's 'biggest weapon' in changing the minds of those who don't like the unknown is just gibberish

puff the dragon

17-10-2019, 01:00 PM

The DUP eh? What are they like?

Characters dude

Peevemor

17-10-2019, 01:07 PM

Absolutely - hence why this being the SNP's 'biggest weapon' in changing the minds of those who don't like the unknown is just gibberish

The SNP's biggest weapon is that it's clear that Westminster doesn't give a toss about the opinions of those living in Scotland, including Brexit.

southsider

17-10-2019, 01:11 PM

The SNP are not advocating leaving the EU?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

So, do I have this right ? If Strathsprey sells its Whisky to the EU there is Duty to pay but Belfast can sell its whiskey to the EU Duty free ? That’s sounds like a fair deal does it not ?

JeMeSouviens

17-10-2019, 01:16 PM

So, do I have this right ? If Strathsprey sells its Whisky to the EU there is Duty to pay but Belfast can sell its whiskey to the EU Duty free ? That’s sounds like a fair deal does it not ?

It's likely but obv not guaranteed that the EU-UK deal will eventually end up tariff free ... but the Strathspey distiller will have to jump through a bunch of regulatory hoops and paperwork that the Belfast distiller won't.

Hibbyradge

17-10-2019, 01:25 PM

The EU has ruled out a further extension.

Onceinawhile

17-10-2019, 01:30 PM

It's likely but obv not guaranteed that the EU-UK deal will eventually end up tariff free ... but the Strathspey distiller will have to jump through a bunch of regulatory hoops and paperwork that the Belfast distiller won't.

So N.Ireland gets what it wants: Staying in the EU
Wales gets what it wants: Leaving the EU
England gets what it wants: Leaving the EU
Scotland and Gibraltar get the shaft.

Callum_62

17-10-2019, 01:34 PM

The EU has ruled out a further extension.Because we have a deal..... Don't think they've ruled it out totally

Can't expect them to say anying else before parliment has had its say

Sent from my VOG-L29 using Tapatalk

Peevemor

17-10-2019, 01:35 PM

Because we have a deal..... Don't think they've ruled it out totally

Can't expect them to say anying else before parliment has had its say

Sent from my VOG-L29 using Tapatalk

I expect a leak from EU sources before Saturday, saying that an extension would be considered to facilitate another referendum.

JeMeSouviens

17-10-2019, 01:37 PM

It's only Thursday - they will back it on Saturday.

They are playing their part in scaring everybody down the no deal barrel until the last minute.

They have to make themselves look relevant, what better way than to be king maker on Saturday!

https://twitter.com/duponline/status/1184823399438323712

The negotiation is finished.

Fife-Hibee

17-10-2019, 01:37 PM

So N.Ireland gets what it wants: Staying in the EU
Wales gets what it wants: Leaving the EU
England gets what it wants: Leaving the EU
Scotland and Gibraltar get the shaft.

We got the shaft a long time ago. It's balls deep now.

southsider

17-10-2019, 01:38 PM

Except N/I voted to remain 56-44 percent. The DUP have not respected that result.

JeMeSouviens

17-10-2019, 01:40 PM

The EU has ruled out a further extension.

Juncker said they don't need a prolongation if they have a deal. They don't have a ratified deal until after Saturday.

Anyway, he's the president of the commission. If there's to be an extension it would come from the EU council.

The EU no doubt wants this over but I doubt they'd go ahead with no deal if there's a vote in parliament for a ref#2.

Ozyhibby

17-10-2019, 01:42 PM

So, do I have this right ? If Strathsprey sells its Whisky to the EU there is Duty to pay but Belfast can sell its whiskey to the EU Duty free ? That’s sounds like a fair deal does it not ?

100% correct

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

JeMeSouviens

17-10-2019, 01:43 PM

Lewis Goodall of Sky News:

Lewis Goodall @lewis_goodall

About to get on a plane back but just on Juncker’s words on extension. EU source says: “It’s not in his gift to rule it out, he is just defending the deal and saying one shouldn't be needed...I am 100% certain EU27 would permit an extension if deal falls on Saturday.”

puff the dragon

17-10-2019, 01:50 PM

https://twitter.com/duponline/status/1184823399438323712

The negotiation is finished.

It's still Thursday. You'll get statements from the DUP banging on about not voting for it all day tomorrow as well.

They will vote for it, Boris already knows it's in the bag. He wants obstacles he can control - and the DUP are providing it.

Politics is a show

Callum_62

17-10-2019, 02:13 PM

. https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191017/2cdb3fc47cbfb7eb418ba6ec8788ca4c.jpg

Sent from my VOG-L29 using Tapatalk

JeMeSouviens

17-10-2019, 02:13 PM

It's still Thursday. You'll get statements from the DUP banging on about not voting for it all day tomorrow as well.

They will vote for it, Boris already knows it's in the bag. He wants obstacles he can control - and the DUP are providing it.

Politics is a show

We'll see on Saturday.

Also important:

- how many of the Tory rebs come back on side? - my guess most of them if he tempts them back by offering to restore the whip but a few will hold out.
- do any of the ERG hold out for no deal? - probably not many but a handful might stick with the DUP if they vote against
- can they pick up any Lab rebs? - there will be the 4 or 5 usual nutters and there are a group of 20 or so desperate for a deal but probably not this one, which is very much at the hard end of the Brexit spectrum.

CloudSquall

17-10-2019, 02:14 PM

Noise on Twitter is that Johnson knows the deal won't pass but wants a deal going into a GE to wave in front of voters to ensure a Tory majority.

Ozyhibby

17-10-2019, 02:28 PM

https://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2019/10/17/saturday-is-the-most-important-day-in-the-entire-brexit-saga

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

mjhibby

17-10-2019, 02:30 PM

Noise on Twitter is that Johnson knows the deal won't pass but wants a deal going into a GE to wave in front of voters to ensure a Tory majority.

That's been the plan all along. Why folk can't see this is beyond me. Johnson and Cummings can't grasp complex issues so to them it's get a deal the eu will accept knowing parliament is very likely to reject to then try and paint the opposition as unreasonable. Just farcical as it's a worse deal than Mays and that was voted down three times. Another four months wasted playing political games. It can only be another referendum with this nonsense deal,leave or stay. Let's Lance this bloody boil and get on with our lives. Hopefully its remain, corbyn stands down and Keir starmer leads a minority labour govt and we get indyref2. What can possibly be wrong with that.

Moulin Yarns

17-10-2019, 02:40 PM

So, do I have this right ? If Strathsprey sells its Whisky to the EU there is Duty to pay but Belfast can sell its whiskey to the EU Duty free ? That’s sounds like a fair deal does it not ?

Funny, I was just thinking about all the football 'supporters' getting duty free on the Larne to Cairnryan ferry.

Fife-Hibee

17-10-2019, 02:43 PM

That's been the plan all along. Why folk can't see this is beyond me. Johnson and Cummings can't grasp complex issues so to them it's get a deal the eu will accept knowing parliament is very likely to reject to then try and paint the opposition as unreasonable. Just farcical as it's a worse deal than Mays and that was voted down three times. Another four months wasted playing political games. It can only be another referendum with this nonsense deal,leave or stay. Let's Lance this bloody boil and get on with our lives. Hopefully its remain, corbyn stands down and Keir starmer leads a minority labour govt and we get indyref2. What can possibly be wrong with that.

They'll never allow the brexit result to be reversed. In doing so, it would suggest that the Scottish people were right and that English people were wrong. Such a scenario is simply unthinkable.

Mibbes Aye

17-10-2019, 02:59 PM

They'll never allow the brexit result to be reversed. In doing so, it would suggest that the Scottish people were right and that English people were wrong. Such a scenario is simply unthinkable.

Behave yourself. 16 or 17 million English people voted to Remain and more than a million Scots voted to leave. But hey, let’s just reduce it to simple English/Scottish yeah?

Cataplana

17-10-2019, 03:02 PM

puff the dragon

17-10-2019, 03:15 PM

Behave yourself. 16 or 17 million English people voted to Remain and more than a million Scots voted to leave. But hey, let’s just reduce it to simple English/Scottish yeah?

Here now - you're not just blindly accepting the SNP grievance at all times narrative. Call yourself Scottish?????

The fact it was a U.K. vote and the value of 1 Scottish vote was exactly the same as 1 English vote was westminsters fault. Our votes should be worth 19 of theirs because hey, Wallace and that.

Ozyhibby

17-10-2019, 03:19 PM

weecounty hibby

17-10-2019, 03:23 PM

Here now - you're not just blindly accepting the SNP grievance at all times narrative. Call yourself Scottish?????

The fact it was a U.K. vote and the value of 1 Scottish vote was exactly the same as 1 English vote was westminsters fault. Our votes should be worth 19 of theirs because hey, Wallace and that.
No one that I can see is actually saying what you have typed. Remember though that this is a union of equals just that one part of the union is more equal than others. While in the EU as has been seen over the last three years, all parties to that union are the same, look at how Ireland has been supported.

Peevemor

17-10-2019, 03:25 PM

I think it’s fair to ask why one country in the UK is allowed to maintain the benefits of the SM and CU and Scotland is not? There can be no justification for that?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

And outwith NI it's effectively a no deal, yet they're all hailing it as a fantastic bit of negotiating. WTF?

weecounty hibby

17-10-2019, 03:31 PM

Here now - you're not just blindly accepting the SNP grievance at all times narrative. Call yourself Scottish?????

The fact it was a U.K. vote and the value of 1 Scottish vote was exactly the same as 1 English vote was westminsters fault. Our votes should be worth 19 of theirs because hey, Wallace and that.

One more thing though. I don't buy into any grievance politics and try not to even entertain that when Indy supporters do but this time by Christ we really do have a grievance to get worked up about. NI will benefit while we in Scotland get shafted. No amount of your smart arsed answers will change that fact.

Callum_62

17-10-2019, 03:36 PM

Chat is no second ref vote this Weekend--Labour focused on defeating Johnsons deal

Sent from my VOG-L29 using Tapatalk

Hibrandenburg

17-10-2019, 03:47 PM

And outwith NI it's effectively a no deal, yet they're all hailing it as a fantastic bit of negotiating. WTF?

Congratulations to Boris Johnson. After 3 years of negotiations, after dividing the nation, after losing the faith of the electorate in parliament and us now having had 3 different Prime Ministers in the same space of time, he's finally hammered the EU into accepting one of the first deals that the EU put on the table. Well done Boris.

Colr

17-10-2019, 03:54 PM

Congratulations to Boris Johnson. After 3 years of negotiations, after dividing the nation, after losing the faith of the electorate in parliament and us now having had 3 different Prime Ministers in the same space of time, he's finally hammered the EU into accepting one of the first deals that the EU put on the table. Well done Boris.

But he’s still ahead in the polls!!?!

Cataplana

17-10-2019, 04:08 PM

GlesgaeHibby

17-10-2019, 04:11 PM

Chat is no second ref vote this Weekend--Labour focused on defeating Johnsons deal

Sent from my VOG-L29 using Tapatalk

Can see the following happening then:

1. Boris deal voted down
2. Extension requested and granted.
3. Vote of no confidence / election called.
4. Labour lose, Boris wins majority after campaign focuses on the 'victory of getting a deal against the odds and remain parliament voting it down'

At least then Labour may see sense and empty Corbyn, but only after Boris is put into power for 5 more years to deliver a hard Tory Brexit. :brickwall

BroxburnHibee

17-10-2019, 04:21 PM

cabbageandribs1875

17-10-2019, 04:24 PM

The chlorination in itself isn't dangerous (I don't think) but the fact that they have such poor hygiene standards that they need to chlorinate in the first place makes it a big red flag.

here's a small list of ingredients the FDA allow in american food. :sick:

https://www.livescience.com/55459-fda-acceptable-food-defects.html#targetText=The%20FDA%20allows%20few%2 0foods%20to%20contain%20whole%20insects.&targetText=Heads%2C%20legs%20and%20other%20fragmen ts,insect%20fragments%20per%2050%20grams.

i read a much more comprehensive list a few weeks back but unfortunately can't find it at the moment

GlesgaeHibby

17-10-2019, 04:28 PM

Not convinced he'll get a majority. I think it could be another hung parliament.

Can't see anything but, unfortunately. He'll head off into the next election playing the victim card and England will return him with a majority.

CloudSquall

17-10-2019, 04:29 PM

Alot will ride on whether the deal is enough for the current Brexit Party support.

Get the majority of them onboard and he has a majority, if they stick with Nigel it's going to be a tough ask.

cabbageandribs1875

17-10-2019, 05:10 PM

oh oh :greengrin mair court action

22631

heretoday

17-10-2019, 05:16 PM

God I hope this deal goes through. I think I've aged 10 years in the last three.

mjhibby

17-10-2019, 05:16 PM

Can see the following happening then:

1. Boris deal voted down
2. Extension requested and granted.
3. Vote of no confidence / election called.
4. Labour lose, Boris wins majority after campaign focuses on the 'victory of getting a deal against the odds and remain parliament voting it down'

At least then Labour may see sense and empty Corbyn, but only after Boris is put into power for 5 more years to deliver a hard Tory Brexit. :brickwall

Agree all bar Johnson getting a majority. John Eustace did s good piece on the fact that brexit didn't affect the 2017 election as much as first thought and half the voters are now classed as swing voters. Impossible to predict the election and how folk will vote tactically. Plus of course the effect the brexit party will have. I still think we're heading for another hung parliament.

danhibees1875

17-10-2019, 05:33 PM

God I hope this deal goes through. I think I've aged 10 years in the last three.

We've lost a decade debating referendums. Get a deal sorted with a confirmation referendum thrown in, and if we're really daft enough to vote for it again then let's just see how it plays out.

Cataplana

17-10-2019, 05:35 PM

Just when you think youve seen Boris complete act, he pulls a trick you've never seen before.

That press conference with Junker is an utter piss take.

Moulin Yarns

17-10-2019, 06:20 PM

SNP amendment

Confirmed:

- declines to approve the withdrawal agreement and future

- calls for the Prime Minister to secure an extension until at least 31 January 2020 for the purpose of holding an early general election before the end of the extension period.

Northernhibee

17-10-2019, 06:21 PM

God I hope this deal goes through. I think I've aged 10 years in the last three.

It’s almost as bad as a no deal.

I truly hope it leads to a second referendum where we can remain.

Ozyhibby

17-10-2019, 06:23 PM

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191017/81b93e0d5fcf19017438f8710dab4a73.jpg
Going to be close on Saturday.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Callum_62

17-10-2019, 06:26 PM

How can anyone who voted against Mays deal vote for this deal?

Ozyhibby

17-10-2019, 06:29 PM

How can anyone who voted against Mays deal vote for this deal?

The ERG have decide they don’t really care whether NI trade policy is dealt with by Dublin after all so long as they get their hard brexit.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Ozyhibby

17-10-2019, 06:40 PM

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191017/695f5180512a1ce0c45dda3db31a0179.jpg

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Moulin Yarns

17-10-2019, 06:43 PM

Theresa May right now is every woman who’s ever said an idea in a meeting & had everyone ignore her only for a man to say the same idea two minutes later & have everyone congratulate the **** out of him

CloudSquall

17-10-2019, 06:46 PM

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191017/695f5180512a1ce0c45dda3db31a0179.jpg

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Who is the "rebel" Lib Dem voting for the deal?

RyeSloan

17-10-2019, 06:49 PM

Who is the "rebel" Lib Dem voting for the deal?

Jo Swinson of course [emoji2957]

Future17

17-10-2019, 06:51 PM

Who is the "rebel" Lib Dem voting for the deal?

Jo Swinson.

I've seen the future. :greengrin

Future17

17-10-2019, 06:52 PM

Jo Swinson of course [emoji2957]

I wasn't quick enough! :rotflmao:

CloudSquall

17-10-2019, 06:54 PM

Jo Swinson of course [emoji2957]

I provided an open goal for that one :greengrin

Bostonhibby

17-10-2019, 06:55 PM

Jo Swinson of course [emoji2957]She is/was a LD?

The LD's sent the populace a message when Clegg was seeking popularity and hell mend any Liberal that thinks Swinson isn't Boris's Ace in the hole.

Apologies for the poker analogy.

Sent from my SM-A750FN using Tapatalk

Moulin Yarns

17-10-2019, 07:25 PM

Senior Labour sources predicting fewer than ten Labour MPs will back Government on Saturday. Every vote could count....

Moulin Yarns

17-10-2019, 07:26 PM

Govt preparing measures to support Labour MPs thinking of backing deal

Number of Lab MPs considering voting for it is higher than previous estimates

Including some new names in Leave seats who didn’t back May’s deal, didn’t sign pro-deal letter and aren’t replying to texts...

Bostonhibby

17-10-2019, 07:41 PM

Pretty Boy

17-10-2019, 07:53 PM

Jack Hackett

17-10-2019, 07:56 PM

I am now extremely nervous

Ozyhibby

17-10-2019, 08:04 PM

It will be interesting to see what happens to the DUPs vote in the next general election if the deal gets through. The UUP now accusing them of being misled, betrayal and putting NI on the 'window ledge of the union and on a path to a united Ireland'.

That's pretty forceful rhetoric and will appeal to a lot of the hardcore Unionist vote.

As people realise that NI is now heading to closer alignment to Dublin, expect unionist fury to rise between now and Saturday. That may turn some Tories against the deal. And maybe Kate Hoey will switch back to being against as she is close to the DUP.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Callum_62

17-10-2019, 08:08 PM

I am now extremely nervousBelieve in Britain!

Sent from my VOG-L29 using Tapatalk

Bostonhibby

17-10-2019, 08:14 PM

It will be interesting to see what happens to the DUPs vote in the next general election if the deal gets through. The UUP now accusing them of being misled, betrayal and putting NI on the 'window ledge of the union and on a path to a united Ireland'.

That's pretty forceful rhetoric and will appeal to a lot of the hardcore Unionist vote.Interesting times ahead, the no surrender brigade might have to reconcile themselves to the reality that an opportunistic short term leader of the Conservative and Unionist party pushed them a bit further towards the precipice for even shorter term gain.

The positive could be that if Boris gets away with it the hard core that's left in Norn Irn will be much noisier but ever less relevant.

Sent from my SM-A750FN using Tapatalk

Jack Hackett

17-10-2019, 08:32 PM

Believe in Britain!

Sent from my VOG-L29 using Tapatalk

Thank you... I feel much better now :rolleyes:

Callum_62

17-10-2019, 08:33 PM

Thank you... I feel much better now :rolleyes:[emoji23][emoji23] Don't we all Jack, don't we all [emoji57]

Sent from my VOG-L29 using Tapatalk

Jack Hackett

17-10-2019, 08:34 PM

[emoji23][emoji23] Don't we all Jack, don't we all [emoji57]

Sent from my VOG-L29 using Tapatalk

:greengrin

No worries bud... well, maybe a few... actually, quite a lot :wink:

CloudSquall

17-10-2019, 08:40 PM

The absolute gall of this ****..

https://twitter.com/DavidMundellDCT/status/1184835861801787392

Hibbyradge

17-10-2019, 08:41 PM

So, if a deal is agreed, how is it better than no-deal for trade and agriculture and medicine etc?

I'm not making a point here, I genuinely don't understand the difference.

GlesgaeHibby

17-10-2019, 08:42 PM

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191017/695f5180512a1ce0c45dda3db31a0179.jpg

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Going to be bloody close.

In a way, this deal passing may not be such a bad thing. Gives the Yes camp plenty ammo for Indyref2 with Scotland being the only part of the union that didn't get what it voted for in the Brexit referendum. The big issue though is that I can't see this lot allowing Indyref2.

GlesgaeHibby

17-10-2019, 08:43 PM

So, if a deal is agreed, how is it better than no-deal for trade and agriculture and medicine etc?

I'm not making a point here, I genuinely don't understand the difference.

I think the only upside is that there is a transition period following withdrawal, rather than the cliff edge of no-deal. All depends how much progress can be made on trade deals during the transition period.

CloudSquall

17-10-2019, 08:49 PM

Damian Green on LBC....

Eddie Mair:“Why shouldn’t Scotland have a special deal like Northern Ireland?”

Damian Green:“Kent doesn’t have a special deal either.”

Adam Tomkins, oor James (gone but not forgotten), Murdo and co will be ripping the tap aff it with that quote...

Ozyhibby

17-10-2019, 08:52 PM

The absolute gall of this ****..

https://twitter.com/DavidMundellDCT/status/1184835861801787392

Didn’t he previously say he could never vote for any deal that weakened the union? This deal certainly does that.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Callum_62

17-10-2019, 08:58 PM

Didn’t he previously say he could never vote for any deal that weakened the union? This deal certainly does that.

Sent from my iPhone using TapatalkHaving a special deal for NI was a resignation issue for him apparently....[emoji23]

Sent from my VOG-L29 using Tapatalk

Ozyhibby

17-10-2019, 09:01 PM

Having a special deal for NI was a resignation issue for him apparently....[emoji23]

Sent from my VOG-L29 using Tapatalk

Another great example of the Tories in Scotland putting their loyalty to London before what they actually think is best for Scotland.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

CloudSquall

17-10-2019, 09:01 PM

Ross Thomson got called out for it as well,

https://www.thenational.scot/news/17975954.old-tweet-exposes-ross-thomsons-brexit-hypocrisy/

RyeSloan

17-10-2019, 09:10 PM

Having a special deal for NI was a resignation issue for him apparently....[emoji23]

Sent from my VOG-L29 using Tapatalk

I’m a bit lost with it all to be honest.

Does the ‘new’ deal re NI replace the backstop so therefore will only kick in if the trade deal talks don’t succeed in time?

In other words are we still arguing over the insurance policy?

Scorrie

17-10-2019, 09:10 PM

I think the only upside is that there is a transition period following withdrawal, rather than the cliff edge of no-deal. All depends how much progress can be made on trade deals during the transition period.

I think you’re right. This new deal is pretty bad in terms of protection of workers’ and consumers’ rights and the environment let alone how Scotland is treated compared to NI. It’s about as bad as could be in many ways. The transition period is probably the only benefit. Where Scotland heads now politically will be interesting. The pressure for an independence referendum versus a Westminster government determined not to grant it could get messy as this deal unfolds