Brexit - What Now.

[Northernhibee]

A Brexit voter walks into a bar.

"I'll have a pint of beer please!"

The barman pours a pint and throws it in his face.

"What the hell was that?" asks the Brexit voter.

"You asked for a pint of beer", says the barman, "but you didn't specify how you wanted it delivered."

"OK then" says the Brexit voter. "I'll have a pint of beer...in a pint glass!"

"No can do" says the barman.

"Why not?" asks the leave voter.

"Democracy, innit. You can't ask twice".

[Moulin Yarns]

Brexit planning well underway.

Pitlochry station yesterday. Nothing to worry about Scotland. https://t.co/4JimjGPcnC

[Cataplana]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191001/0074f90b9895aef1156644757bd3c155.jpg
The new border certainly looks funny.


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The old one is mad enough. Looks looks like two guys were holding the same pencil, and pulling North or South at the same time.

[southsider]

Border Checkpoints who is going to police them. The Garda Siochana aren't going to do so in the Republic and The Police in the North are going to be in a catch 22 situation and are going far too stretched to do so. All against The Good Friday Agreement in any case. All because Boris and his English pals hate the EU. Risks 20 years of mostly peace.

[Moulin Yarns]

Border Checkpoints who is going to police them. The Garda Siochana aren't going to do so in the Republic and The Police in the North are going to be in a catch 22 situation and are going far too stretched to do so. All against The Good Friday Agreement in any case. All because Boris and his English pals hate the EU. Risks 20 years of mostly peace.

Moving checkpoint to 5 miles inside the northern Ireland border is like reunification of the island of Ireland by stealth. 😁

A 5 mile buffer from the border affects more than 600,000 residents directly. They are in no mans land.

[CloudSquall]

Reading Boris' comments on the Irish border and I can't help but get the impression he doesn't give a baker's @ about the border.

The amount of cash his donors are going to bank through shorting the pound takes priority.

[lapsedhibee]

Moving checkpoint to 5 miles inside the northern Ireland border is like reunification of the island of Ireland by stealth. 😁


Don't think it'll feel much like stealth when the bombs start going off there.

[lapsedhibee]

Reading Boris' comments on the Irish border and I can't help but get the impression he doesn't give a baker's @ about the border.


Some of his faction do give a baker's. They think it's important that the Irish tail isn't seen to wag the English dog.

[Ozyhibby]

https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/alexwickham/boris-johnson-bristol-port-cash?__twitter_impression=true
Brexit pounds already rolling in.


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[G B Young]

Chat emerging of a potential compromise on the Oppo benches - no confidence to boot out Johnson then a caretaker govt with Corbyn in charge to get extension with EU27. But, crucial difference, they move to ref#2 straight away before having a general election.

Swinson has reiterated today that the Lib Dems won't support Corbyn as caretaker. From the Guardian diary:

The Lib Dem leader again stressed that the Corbyn option is simply impossible, as he would not win the support of rebel former Conservative MPs and others whose votes would be needed.
A spokesman for Swinson said: "Jo is a great believer in the power of mathematics. Jeremy Corbyn does not have the numbers and needs to make clear who he would support if we need an emergency government. A caretaker PM would have to be well respected and above party politics."

[lapsedhibee]

Sign today that Johnson is wearying of his role as Genius's dummy. Ch4 showed clip of him being asked by a journalist why he wasn't giving interviews today and he replied that he didn't know - it was above his paygrade. A rare occasion when he just couldn't be bothered to lie. Think if there's another couple of setbacks in the near future he might resign (and then his family might like him again).

[Jack]

Swinson has reiterated today that the Lib Dems won't support Corbyn as caretaker. From the Guardian diary:

The Lib Dem leader again stressed that the Corbyn option is simply impossible, as he would not win the support of rebel former Conservative MPs and others whose votes would be needed.
A spokesman for Swinson said: "Jo is a great believer in the power of mathematics. Jeremy Corbyn does not have the numbers and needs to make clear who he would support if we need an emergency government. A caretaker PM would have to be well respected and above party politics."

I don't think the libdems not backing Corbyn is what's being said there at all.

What they're saying is that even if Labour, SNP and libdems got together they'd still need support from 'others'. It's those others that won't support Corbyn - probably under any circumstances.

[marinello59]

I don't think the libdems not backing Corbyn is what's being said there at all.

What they're saying is that even if Labour, SNP and libdems got together they'd still need support from 'others'. It's those others that won't support Corbyn - probably under any circumstances.

And they are right. The Tory rebels won’t back Corbyn.

[Hibbyradge]

And they are right. The Tory rebels won’t back Corbyn.

No, they won't and that leaves Corbyn with a real dilemma.

If he stands his ground, we'll get burdened with no deal and he'll get blamed by the Libs and the remainers in his own party and the electorate.

The Labour Party would be punished in the subsequent GE with the Liberals being the chief beneficiaries, and the Tories winning a clear majority.

Blaming Swinson is missing the point entirely. The best outcome for Labour would be to agree that another, more acceptable, individual in the party takes the temporary reigns.

We'll see what happens.

[G B Young]

I don't think the libdems not backing Corbyn is what's being said there at all.

What they're saying is that even if Labour, SNP and libdems got together they'd still need support from 'others'. It's those others that won't support Corbyn - probably under any circumstances.

The spokesman for Ms Swinson reiterated that she would only support a compromise candidate for PM like Tory grandee Kenneth Clarke or Labour veteran Dame Margaret Beckett.
"Jo has been crystal clear. Jeremy Corbyn is not going into Number 10 on the basis of Liberal Democrats' votes."

[Hibbyradge]

The spokesman for Ms Swinson reiterated that she would only support a compromise candidate for PM like Tory grandee Kenneth Clarke or Labour veteran Dame Margaret Beckett.
"Jo has been crystal clear. Jeremy Corbyn is not going into Number 10 on the basis of Liberal Democrats' votes."

Yes, but that's her positioning her party in the centre. If the numbers were there, she'd have to change her tune otherwise she'd be blamed by the electorate for allowing No deal, and the Liberals would be fatally destroyed.

However, the numbers aren't there so she can say what she wants about Corbyn. It's now his call, not hers.

[G B Young]

No, they won't and that leaves Corbyn with a real dilemma.

If he stands his ground, we'll get burdened with no deal and he'll get blamed by the Libs and the remainers in his own party and the electorate.

The Labour Party would be punished in the subsequent GE with the Liberals being the chief beneficiaries, and the Tories winning a clear majority.

Blaming Swinson is missing the point entirely. The best outcome for Labour would be to agree that another, more acceptable, individual in the party takes the temporary reigns.

We'll see what happens.

It's the obvious course of action but Corbyn simply won't accept it.

It's remarkable that despite such widespread animosity towards a Prime Minister from opposition parties the leader of the opposition, who in normal circumstances would be the figurehead of a government of national unity, can't command the support required. Corbyn in Downing St, even on a temporary basis is simply too much for most to stomach.

[The Harp Awakes]

No, they won't and that leaves Corbyn with a real dilemma.

If he stands his ground, we'll get burdened with no deal and he'll get blamed by the Libs and the remainers in his own party and the electorate.

The Labour Party would be punished in the subsequent GE with the Liberals being the chief beneficiaries, and the Tories winning a clear majority.

Blaming Swinson is missing the point entirely. The best outcome for Labour would be to agree that another, more acceptable, individual in the party takes the temporary reigns.

We'll see what happens.

I think Corbyn stepping aside could be equally damaging for him and the Labour Party at a GE. He is leader of the opposition and his credibility would be completely shot if another MP led an emergency Government ahead of him.

This is all heading for one huge stand off between the Government and the opposition. It has become evident today that there is no chance of a deal, and clearly Boris has no intention of extending Brexit beyond 31 October. All parties will have 1 eye on the GE now and it could be that the opposition parties would have more votes to gain at a GE because of the immediate chaos caused by a no-deal Brexit.

[Callum_62]

Final offer on deal being presented to EU tomorrow. Its either thins deal or no further negotiation apparently

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[JeMeSouviens]

Final offer on deal being presented to EU tomorrow. Its either thins deal or no further negotiation apparently

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It’s a million miles from what the EU will accept. In particular Ireland can choose something barely better than no deal or hang on and wait for a second chance once no deal inevitably goes tits up for the UK. No brainer for Varadkar.

[JeMeSouviens]

Thread on what’s in the “new deal” here:

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1179136001647792129?s=21

[CloudSquall]

Thread on what’s in the “new deal” here:

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1179136001647792129?s=21

No deal it is then..

[Hibbyradge]

I think Corbyn stepping aside could be equally damaging for him and the Labour Party at a GE. He is leader of the opposition and his credibility would be completely shot if another MP led an emergency Government ahead of him.

This is all heading for one huge stand off between the Government and the opposition. It has become evident today that there is no chance of a deal, and clearly Boris has no intention of extending Brexit beyond 31 October. All parties will have 1 eye on the GE now and it could be that the opposition parties would have more votes to gain at a GE because of the immediate chaos caused by a no-deal Brexit.

I think if it was managed properly, any damage to the Labour Party could be minimal.

He could rightly point his finger at the Tory rebels for being prepared to damage the country because of their own personal prejudices.

He could position himself as selfless, caring and on the side of the people.

Those in the electorate who instinctively dislike and distrust Corbyn will never change their position regardless of what happens.

However, the remainers who may not be his biggest fans, but prefer him to the Tories, would desert him if he didn't do the right thing.

[The Harp Awakes]

No deal it is then..

Yes, beginning to look very likely. Unless the opposition parties can close any legal loopholes which Boris can utilise to avoid requesting an extension.

[Callum_62]

2 borders for the price of 1- bargain

No way Johnson wants anything other than a no deal

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[The Harp Awakes]

I think if it was managed properly, any damage to the Labour Party could be minimal.

He could rightly point his finger at the Tory rebels for being prepared to damage the country because of their own personal prejudices.

He could position himself as selfless, caring and on the side of the people.

Those in the electorate who instinctively dislike and distrust Corbyn will never change their position regardless of what happens.

However, the remainers who may not be his biggest fans, but prefer him to the Tories, would desert him if he didn't do the right thing.

Hmm. I can see where you're coming from but the Labour Party aren't very good at doing good PR; their recent party conference being a prime example. The Tory press would also crucify him if he stood aside depicting him as a failure and a weak leader who can't command support/respect. Apart from that, I don't think Corbyn would be the type to stand aside as he's an idealist.

[Glory Lurker]

It’s pathetic that there are anti-no deal MPs who can’t hold their nose to back Corbyn. They are putting their personal politics before the good of the UK. Sure there are less divisive figures, but how much time have we got to sort them out? Just stop your whining, get Corbyn in, or be the midwives of no deal.

[Chorley Hibee]

2 borders for the price of 1- bargain

No way Johnson wants anything other than a no deal

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The UK and this "proposal" ultimately trying to inflict maximum damage upon the island of Ireland.

[Hibbyradge]

It’s pathetic that there are anti-no deal MPs who can’t hold their nose to back Corbyn. They are putting their personal politics before the good of the UK. Sure there are less divisive figures, but how much time have we got to sort them out? Just stop your whining, get Corbyn in, or be the midwives of no deal.

The people who won't back Corbyn are Tories.

They would admit that they would prefer a no deal to Corbyn in power, even temporarily.

Imagine that the situation was reversed and Rees Mogg was the leader of the opposition. Or someone like Farage.

There wouldn't be many Labour MPs willing to hold their noses and allow them into No 10.

[RyeSloan]

It’s pathetic that there are anti-no deal MPs who can’t hold their nose to back Corbyn. They are putting their personal politics before the good of the UK. Sure there are less divisive figures, but how much time have we got to sort them out? Just stop your whining, get Corbyn in, or be the midwives of no deal.

Or even more pathetic that Corbyn has decided it’s him or no one...in terms of putting personal politics ahead of the good of the Nation that surely takes the biscuit.

I’m amazed there is even a debate about this!

[Hibbyradge]

Hmm. I can see where you're coming from but the Labour Party aren't very good at doing good PR; their recent party conference being a prime example. The Tory press would also crucify him if he stood aside depicting him as a failure and a weak leader who can't command support/respect. Apart from that, I don't think Corbyn would be the type to stand aside as he's an idealist.

The Tory press will crucify him exactly like that regardless of what he does. They've been doing it for years and the electorate believe it's true.

Standing aside courageously and generously for the benefit of the country, whilst depicting the Tory rebels as irresponsible, reckless and running scared of him must surely be better for Labour than the pain they'll receive if he gets blamed for no deal.

[Moulin Yarns]

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 34% (+1)
LDEM: 23% (+2)
LAB: 21% (-1)
BREX: 12% (-1)
GRN: 5% (-)

via @YouGov
Chgs. w/ 27 Sep


What is the country thinking?

[Moulin Yarns]

👇 @EU_Commission: “Once received, we will examine [the UK text] objectively & in light of well-known criteria (i.e. a legally operational solution, meeting all the objectives of the backstop: preventing a hard border, preserving N-S coop & all-island economy, & integrity of SM)

[BroxburnHibee]

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 34% (+1)
LDEM: 23% (+2)
LAB: 21% (-1)
BREX: 12% (-1)
GRN: 5% (-)

via @YouGov
Chgs. w/ 27 Sep


What is the country thinking?

What is one country thinking you mean.

[southsider]

Is it not a fact that all 27 countries, together as a block, must reject or accept the 'deal'. RoI can reject if, and i think it will, as a hard border, be-it one or two is everything that they hate about this 'deal'. A rejection is want Johnston wants. He will say 'I done my best, it is those Pesky Europeans that stopped us'.

[Ozyhibby]

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 34% (+1)
LDEM: 23% (+2)
LAB: 21% (-1)
BREX: 12% (-1)
GRN: 5% (-)

via @YouGov
Chgs. w/ 27 Sep


What is the country thinking?

Looks like it wants to remain but can’t agree which party will deliver that. So likely the Tories will win as the scoop up the leave vote.


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[Ozyhibby]

Is it not a fact that all 27 countries, together as a block, must reject or accept the 'deal'. RoI can reject if, and i think it will, as a hard border, be-it one or two is everything that they hate about this 'deal'. A rejection is want Johnston wants. He will say 'I done my best, it is those Pesky Europeans that stopped us'.

All 27 will stick together.


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[Moulin Yarns]

UK plans have just landed in Brussels to try to replace the backstop - NI essentially in single market for goods, but Stormont votes on entering arrangements to start with, and then every four years


Leo Varadkar says nothing he has seen changes the situation.

[Ozyhibby]

UK plans have just landed in Brussels to try to replace the backstop - NI essentially in single market for goods, but Stormont votes on entering arrangements to start with, and then every four years


Leo Varadkar says nothing he has seen changes the situation.

So Northern Ireland has a competitive advantage over Scotland when it comes to attracting investment due to it having SM access?
Nothing like being 2nd class citizens right enough.
Why can’t Scotland have such a deal?


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[JeMeSouviens]

UK plans have just landed in Brussels to try to replace the backstop - NI essentially in single market for goods, but Stormont votes on entering arrangements to start with, and then every four years


Leo Varadkar says nothing he has seen changes the situation.

Give the DUP an effective ongoing veto? What could possibly go wrong with that? :rolleyes:

[CloudSquall]

.
Why can’t Scotland have such a deal?


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DUP vs Scottish Conservatives.

[Moulin Yarns]

So Northern Ireland has a competitive advantage over Scotland when it comes to attracting investment due to it having SM access?
Nothing like being 2nd class citizens right enough.
Why can’t Scotland have such a deal?


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NI leaves customs union with rest of UK, checks done electronically, govt says small number of physical checks required take place only on business premises or along the supply chain - calls on both sides to rule out any checks at border for good - no plan for new infrastructure

[Moulin Yarns]

Something that hasn't been explained is how the Northern Ireland assembly can decide on the now non existing backstop when they haven't sat for nearly 3 years.

[heretoday]

Something that hasn't been explained is how the Northern Ireland assembly can decide on the now non existing backstop when they haven't sat for nearly 3 years.

They'll have to get their act together now.

[Bostonhibby]

Something that hasn't been explained is how the Northern Ireland assembly can decide on the now non existing backstop when they haven't sat for nearly 3 years.Boris will be along in a minute to clarify it all by actually talking about anything but this, and waving his hands about a lot.

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[Moulin Yarns]

They'll have to get their act together now.

Sinn fein just need to say naw. Then the games a bogie and we are back to square one. Or out with no deal, which is what the government wants all along.

You have to wonder what the reaction in holyrood and Cardiff will be to the Northern Ireland assembly basically deciding the future relationship of the UK and the EU across the Irish border.

[Ozyhibby]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191002/7cb98772b9e5f0dd0207425068d0510c.jpg


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[Moulin Yarns]

Statement from Juncker - negotiations will take place in coming days, welcomes some aspects of proposals but says still there are still problems to be worked on - not exactly optimistic but will be relief to Number 10 that they have not been dismissed out of hand

[McSwanky]

Statement from Juncker - negotiations will take place in coming days, welcomes some aspects of proposals but says still there are still problems to be worked on - not exactly optimistic but will be relief to Number 10 that they have not been dismissed out of handI don't know, I think no. 10 would have been quite delighted if the EU had told them to bolt...

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[G B Young]

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 34% (+1)
LDEM: 23% (+2)
LAB: 21% (-1)
BREX: 12% (-1)
GRN: 5% (-)

via @YouGov
Chgs. w/ 27 Sep


What is the country thinking?

The shambolic scenes at the Labour Party conference appear haven't impressed voters, according to the Press Assocation:

Labour have suffered an electoral setback after a new poll showed they had been overtaken by the Liberal Democrats. The latest survey, conducted by YouGov, puts Jo Swinson's party in second place on 23 per cent, while Labour has slipped to third spot on 21 per cent. The Conservative party is comfortably out in front on 34 per cent.
The poll findings are likely to spark alarm for Labour because most parties enjoy a boost in their ratings following their annual conferences. However, the party's bitter divisions over Brexit were laid bare at Brighton and the botched eve of conference attempts to oust deputy leader Tom Watson do not appear to have impressed voters, many of whom appear to have been left confused by the party's resolution to remain neutral on the question of whether to leave or remain in the EU.

[cabbageandribs1875]

DUP vs Scottish Conservatives.



a right good sash bash with honorary guest speaker Micky Gove

[cabbageandribs1875]

https://www.facebook.com/john.gowers.7/videos/2488119634642982/



not everyone gets a handshake

[Moulin Yarns]

https://www.facebook.com/john.gowers.7/videos/2488119634642982/



not everyone gets a handshake

Wow!!!

[lapsedhibee]

https://www.facebook.com/john.gowers.7/videos/2488119634642982/

not everyone gets a handshake

Not the done thing to be over-familiar with staff.

[Moulin Yarns]

https://www.facebook.com/john.gowers.7/videos/2488119634642982/



not everyone gets a handshake

Now, I am in no way defending the buffoon, but both guys are clapping him and not offered hands to him to shake. The video cuts off just before he doesn't shake the hand of the guy with glasses who does hold his hand out.

Video is actually falsely making him out to be deliberately not shaking the hand of 2 people of colour.

[lapsedhibee]

Now, I am in no way defending the buffoon, but both guys are clapping him and not offered hands to him to shake. The video cuts off just before he doesn't shake the hand of the guy with glasses who does hold his hand out.

Video is actually falsely making him out to be deliberately not shaking the hand of 2 people of colour.

Begone with your rational analysis. We're in a post-truth society where congenital liars are getting away with murder. Time for a bit of pushback?

[Moulin Yarns]

Begone with your rational analysis. We're in a post-truth society where congenital liars are getting away with murder. Time for a bit of pushback?

Sorry. :greengrin

[NAE NOOKIE]

The shambolic scenes at the Labour Party conference appear haven't impressed voters, according to the Press Assocation:

Labour have suffered an electoral setback after a new poll showed they had been overtaken by the Liberal Democrats. The latest survey, conducted by YouGov, puts Jo Swinson's party in second place on 23 per cent, while Labour has slipped to third spot on 21 per cent. The Conservative party is comfortably out in front on 34 per cent.
The poll findings are likely to spark alarm for Labour because most parties enjoy a boost in their ratings following their annual conferences. However, the party's bitter divisions over Brexit were laid bare at Brighton and the botched eve of conference attempts to oust deputy leader Tom Watson do not appear to have impressed voters, many of whom appear to have been left confused by the party's resolution to remain neutral on the question of whether to leave or remain in the EU.

The Lib Dems have taken the ground Labour should have taken with an unambiguous stance on Brexit. For the rest of this century historians will make a living writing books trying to explain how it was the Labour party were handed government on a plate by the worst and most chaotic Tory party in history and still managed to screw it up.

As for the Lib Dems themselves … well, they have the leader the Tories should have had don't they.

[Cataplana]

The Lib Dems have taken the ground Labour should have taken with an unambiguous stance on Brexit. For the rest of this century historians will make a living writing books trying to explain how it was the Labour party were handed government on a plate by the worst and most chaotic Tory party in history and still managed to screw it up.

As for the Lib Dems themselves … well, they have the leader the Tories should have had don't they.

Given that the labour party have had divided views on the EU since its inception, is it a surprise?

Tony Benn campaigned against joining after all.

As it stood, the LibDems were the only party in a position to take a united view on it.

[JeMeSouviens]

Sinn fein just need to say naw. Then the games a bogie and we are back to square one. Or out with no deal, which is what the government wants all along.

You have to wonder what the reaction in holyrood and Cardiff will be to the Northern Ireland assembly basically deciding the future relationship of the UK and the EU across the Irish border.

Apparently the Tories are suggesting if Stormont isn't running there could be a referendum on the changes but the DUP aren't happy with that so it's a tbd.

If Stormont is running, the plan doesn't just give the assembly or executive a veto, it requires cross-community consent, thus it needs both a Nationalist and Unionist majority. So the DUP could refuse consent on their own and the default position in that event is that NI would fall back into line with the rest of the UK, significantly hardening the border. Why would the EU (esp Ireland) go along with that?

[lapsedhibee]

Apparently the Tories are suggesting if Stormont isn't running there could be a referendum on the changes but the DUP aren't happy with that so it's a tbd.

If Stormont is running, the plan doesn't just give the assembly or executive a veto, it requires cross-community consent, thus it needs both a Nationalist and Unionist majority. So the DUP could refuse consent on their own and the default position in that event is that NI would fall back into line with the rest of the UK, significantly hardening the border. Why would the EU (esp Ireland) go along with that?

Is the correct answer still "Because the Germans want to sell cars to us"? :dunno:

[Cataplana]

Apparently the Tories are suggesting if Stormont isn't running there could be a referendum on the changes but the DUP aren't happy with that so it's a tbd.

If Stormont is running, the plan doesn't just give the assembly or executive a veto, it requires cross-community consent, thus it needs both a Nationalist and Unionist majority. So the DUP could refuse consent on their own and the default position in that event is that NI would fall back into line with the rest of the UK, significantly hardening the border. Why would the EU (esp Ireland) go along with that?

I spoke to two older couples from Coleraine yesterday. They were both clear that they thought that the border will never happen.

Given what they have lived through in their life, I'm inclined to accept their wisdom.

[JeMeSouviens]

RTÉ Politics @rtepolitics

Tanaiste @simoncoveney says the Government cannot support any Brexit proposals which suggest a minority in Northern Ireland could make decisions for the majority

A huge amount of compromise still to be done by Johnson & co if they really wanted to get near a deal.

[JeMeSouviens]

Lewis Goodall, Sky news politics:


Today has demonstrated the cosy insularity of Westminster once again. MPs patting each other on the back for finally finding a way for half to agree with themselves with almost no regard to the other party (the EU) and the most critical component of that party, the Irish.

[Moulin Yarns]

Irish deputy PM Simon Coveney:

“If that is the final proposal, there will be no deal”

[Peevemor]

Irish deputy PM Simon Coveney:

“If that is the final proposal, there will be no deal”

And the Irish PM

Mr Varadkar says he was "reassured" by comments made by Mr Johnson that there would be no physical infrastructure at the Irish border - but says it is "in contradiction to the papers presented".

[Moulin Yarns]

And the Irish PM

Mr Varadkar says he was "reassured" by comments made by Mr Johnson that there would be no physical infrastructure at the Irish border - but says it is "in contradiction to the papers presented".

Notwithstanding the need to get agreement from the 27 EU countries, Johnson has still to put his plan to a vote of approval in Parliament, and we all know how that will turn out.

[Ozyhibby]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191003/59d7ef17234d743fd4ebe86e734ad812.png


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[Bostonhibby]

And the Irish PM

Mr Varadkar says he was "reassured" by comments made by Mr Johnson that there would be no physical infrastructure at the Irish border - but says it is "in contradiction to the papers presented".Someone else suggesting bozzer says one thing and does another? Or can't remember what he said earlier and doesn't care?

Surely not. Maybe he just wants to be popular with whoever he is face to face with.

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[Rocky]

Is the correct answer still "Because the Germans want to sell cars to us"? :dunno:
Yup, they need us more than we need them dontcha know

[southsider]

Notwithstanding the need to get agreement from the 27 EU countries, Johnson has still to put his plan to a vote of approval in Parliament, and we all know how that will turn out.

Late last night ‘ Never again will an English PM tell Ireland what to do’Leo.

[weecounty hibby]

Late last night ‘ Never again will an English PM tell Ireland what to do’Leo.

I dream about the day where we in a free Scotland can say the same. And also have the backing of another 27 equal partners.

[lapsedhibee]

Lewis Goodall, Sky news politics:


Today has demonstrated the cosy insularity of Westminster once again. MPs patting each other on the back for finally finding a way for half to agree with themselves with almost no regard to the other party (the EU) and the most critical component of that party, the Irish.

Steve Baker, Brexit Hardman, was on the tellybox last night saying what a great deal it is compared to May's WA, and how there was a good chance it would get through Parliament. Didn't believe a word of it - he knows it's a dud and is in cahoots with Johnson in merely trying to present the government as having done everything possible to get a deal. Blame game, nothing more.

[Moulin Yarns]

+BREAKING+

UK govt briefing the media that MPs “will be lynched” if there’s a 2nd referendum.

[Ozyhibby]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191003/34b07764fecd75fe845fae44138fc188.png


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[Cataplana]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191003/34b07764fecd75fe845fae44138fc188.png


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I fear Boris' answer would be to get the Army to do it. I think most of us know where that would lead.

[Hibbyradge]

+BREAKING+

UK govt briefing the media that MPs “will be lynched” if there’s a 2nd referendum.

Unbelievable

[Cataplana]

Unbelievable

I would have thought they are much more likely to be shot.

Seems much more the style of the current government.

[Killiehibbie]

I fear Boris' answer would be to get the Army to do it. I think most of us know where that would lead.

What could go wrong after all the guns were handed in:rolleyes:

[lapsedhibee]

+BREAKING+

UK govt briefing the media that MPs “will be lynched” if there’s a 2nd referendum.

Cameron didn't get everything right but his description of The Genius as a 'career psychopath' was bang on.

[G B Young]

Notwithstanding the need to get agreement from the 27 EU countries, Johnson has still to put his plan to a vote of approval in Parliament, and we all know how that will turn out.

Indeed. It wouldn't matter whether it was a deal which ticked every box, it would still get voted down due to the entrenched mindsets of the opposition parties, which kind of begs the question why bother insisting Johnson secures a deal when you have no intention of voting for it, ever.

[Hibbyradge]

Indeed. It wouldn't matter whether it was a deal which ticked every box, it would still get voted down due to the entrenched mindsets of the opposition parties, which kind of begs the question why bother insisting Johnson secures a deal when you have no intention of voting for it, ever.

If he brought back a workable deal, loads of Labour MPs would vote for it. Not everyone is playing politics. Many are genuinely concerned about the state our country will be in if we don't get a deal.

[Moulin Yarns]

Indeed. It wouldn't matter whether it was a deal which ticked every box, it would still get voted down due to the entrenched mindsets of the opposition parties, which kind of begs the question why bother insisting Johnson secures a deal when you have no intention of voting for it, ever.

Or he could revoke Article 50. Do the right thing. 🤔😁

[HiBremian]

Indeed. It wouldn't matter whether it was a deal which ticked every box, it would still get voted down due to the entrenched mindsets of the opposition parties, which kind of begs the question why bother insisting Johnson secures a deal when you have no intention of voting for it, ever.

*yawn*
If Johnson, or any other Tory party leader, came up with pretty well any soft brexit option, he would romp it. The SNP offered a compromise brexit in December 2016. The Tory red lines are the problem if you want this parliament to back a brexit.


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[Jack]

Indeed. It wouldn't matter whether it was a deal which ticked every box, it would still get voted down due to the entrenched mindsets of the opposition parties, which kind of begs the question why bother insisting Johnson secures a deal when you have no intention of voting for it, ever.

No its still wholly tory and their red lines.

No other parties were involved in this or any other deal that been proposed.

[grunt]

No its still wholly tory and their red lines.

No other parties were involved in this or any other deal that been proposed.

It doesn't even sound as though anyone outside of Johnson's immediate cabal was aware of the contents of the "deal". He doesn't seem to have discussed it with the cabinet. This is a coup.

[Cataplana]

Watching QT. I had not realised what a basket case Labour is, until that lady tried to explain their position on Brexit.

They are flatlining at the worst possible time.

[Kato]

Indeed. It wouldn't matter whether it was a deal which ticked every box, it would still get voted down due to the entrenched mindsets of the opposition parties, which kind of begs the question why bother insisting Johnson secures a deal when you have no intention of voting for it, ever.

There isn't a deal which ticks all the boxes pratically every position on Brexit runs contrary to existing treaties and Article 50 itself says that the UK's withdrawal must not harm Ireland financially or politically - and a wee reminder that many Tory MPs voted down May's deal not just opposition parties.

[cabbageandribs1875]

Brexit will be cancelled, Big Brave Boris,after climbing back out a ditch, will ask for an extension, then their will be another extension, then another, then another until everyone just wants it cancelled and back to normal, it will have cost the government several billion, referendums will become a waste of time because they won't be honoured.. except indy2 :wink: wonder how the tories will claw all that money back



the good old tax payer

[mjhibby]

There isn't a deal which ticks all the boxes pratically every position on Brexit runs contrary to existing treaties and Article 50 itself says that the UK's withdrawal must not harm Ireland financially or politically - and a wee reminder that many Tory MPs voted down May's deal not just opposition parties.

Indeed the hypocrisy of Johnson and his cronies is breathtaking. This whole charade is so Johnson can become pm and gove puts two fingers up to Cameron. They aren't interested in what happens in Northern Ireland and the risk of terrorism returning not the possibility of hundred of thousands of job losses and a recession. When his ministers have been asked how a no deal would work they can't give an answer. His cabinet wasn't consulted on prorogation. And unelected with no affiliation to the Tories Cummings is in charge. If you said this would happen three years ago you would have been called a nutter.
To think this country is going through bitter divisions and a probable indyref 2 with the animosity that caused because the Tories have been split on Europe makes my blood boil. Beyond parody but scarily real.

[mjhibby]

The worst thing that even if we eventually get brexit we have years of negotiation so it won't go away. If brexit is cancelled then the odious farage will be hanging around like a bad smell stirring up the little Englanders nonsense. Let just get independence and leave these morons to run England into the ground.Absolute ********s the lot of them

[Hibrandenburg]

The worst thing that even if we eventually get brexit we have years of negotiation so it won't go away. If brexit is cancelled then the odious farage will be hanging around like a bad smell stirring up the little Englanders nonsense. Let just get independence and leave these morons to run England into the ground.Absolute ********s the lot of them

Negotiations after a no deal Brexit will be a nightmare for the UK. The EU is at present only playing ball because the UK is still a member and there's still a chance that the UK won't leave, once we're out it will be a whole new ballgame.

[Cataplana]

Indeed the hypocrisy of Johnson and his cronies is breathtaking. This whole charade is so Johnson can become pm and gove puts two fingers up to Cameron. They aren't interested in what happens in Northern Ireland and the risk of terrorism returning not the possibility of hundred of thousands of job losses and a recession. When his ministers have been asked how a no deal would work they can't give an answer. His cabinet wasn't consulted on prorogation. And unelected with no affiliation to the Tories Cummings is in charge. If you said this would happen three years ago you would have been called a nutter.
To think this country is going through bitter divisions and a probable indyref 2 with the animosity that caused because the Tories have been split on Europe makes my blood boil. Beyond parody but scarily real.

Edit: im going to be more straightforward to avoid any misunderstanding.

Where does the "hundreds of thousands" figure come from? Is it Yellowhammer.

If true it is a great concern.

[Colr]

Indeed the hypocrisy of Johnson and his cronies is breathtaking. This whole charade is so Johnson can become pm and gove puts two fingers up to Cameron. They aren't interested in what happens in Northern Ireland and the risk of terrorism returning not the possibility of hundred of thousands of job losses and a recession. When his ministers have been asked how a no deal would work they can't give an answer. His cabinet wasn't consulted on prorogation. And unelected with no affiliation to the Tories Cummings is in charge. If you said this would happen three years ago you would have been called a nutter.
To think this country is going through bitter divisions and a probable indyref 2 with the animosity that caused because the Tories have been split on Europe makes my blood boil. Beyond parody but scarily real.

The country hasn't had a functioning government in 3 years nor a functioning opposition.

[Moulin Yarns]

Just seen janey godley in Perth. What a laugh.

Richard Leonard doesn't get of lightly either. 🤣

[Frankhfc]

Watching QT. I had not realised what a basket case Labour is, until that lady tried to explain their position on Brexit.

They are flatlining at the worst possible time.

Labour decided upon the absolute worst position to take on Brexit which was facing both ways which fooled no one.

I totally support the Lib Dems standpoint of hard remain which has been very well received across the board.

My own Lib Dem M.P Cristine Jardine is a very hard worker on behalf of her constituents and I'm very impressed both by her and the party overall.

[Rocky]

Indeed. It wouldn't matter whether it was a deal which ticked every box, it would still get voted down due to the entrenched mindsets of the opposition parties, which kind of begs the question why bother insisting Johnson secures a deal when you have no intention of voting for it, ever.
May I ask what you consider the key benefits of Brexit to be? I'm genuinely interested in both sides of the debate (and indeed in early 2016 was leaning towards leave on the "Lexit" principle) but on the information I've learned in the intervening years I'm firmly in the remain camp. I just honestly haven't heard anyone even attempt to articulate an actual benefit for months and months so I'm wondering what people are fighting for.

[Moulin Yarns]

May I ask what you consider the key benefits of Brexit to be? I'm genuinely interested in both sides of the debate (and indeed in early 2016 was leaning towards leave on the "Lexit" principle) but on the information I've learned in the intervening years I'm firmly in the remain camp. I just honestly haven't heard anyone even attempt to articulate an actual benefit for months and months so I'm wondering what people are fighting for.

You need to read the side of a bus to understand the benefits.
😁

[southsider]

Boris the big bad bully just shows he is the ultimate coward. 'I'll die in a ditch before I will ask for an extension'. Court of Season 'You may go to jail Mr PM'.
Boris 'Where do I sign ?.
I really think he is a Putin spy. Runs the UK down to the brink. In-fighting all over the place, spending billions on this whilst our armed forces have to share guns. He even has a Russian name. What more proof do you need ?

[Colr]

I fear Boris' answer would be to get the Army to do it. I think most of us know where that would lead.

Or just do nothing.

[Moulin Yarns]

***ake!!!!


Opinium/Observer:

CON: 38% (+2)
LAB: 23% (-1)
LDEM: 15% (-5)
BREX: 12% (+1)
GRN: 4% (+2)

03 - 04 Oct

[lapsedhibee]

***ake!!!!


Opinium/Observer:

CON: 38% (+2)
LAB: 23% (-1)
LDEM: 15% (-5)
BREX: 12% (+1)
GRN: 4% (+2)

03 - 04 Oct

Clearly, not everyone can see through Johnson as well as this constituent (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/video/2019/oct/06/filthy-piece-of-toerag-boris-johnson-constituent-speaks-her-mind-video).

[Ozyhibby]

***ake!!!!


Opinium/Observer:

CON: 38% (+2)
LAB: 23% (-1)
LDEM: 15% (-5)
BREX: 12% (+1)
GRN: 4% (+2)

03 - 04 Oct

While Corbyn is in post then a no deal brexit is more likely than stopping brexit.


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[Cataplana]

***ake!!!!


Opinium/Observer:

CON: 38% (+2)
LAB: 23% (-1)
LDEM: 15% (-5)
BREX: 12% (+1)
GRN: 4% (+2)

03 - 04 Oct

Strange poll that doesn't include SNP.

[Jack]

Strange poll that doesn't include SNP.

Without going back I'm not sure any of these polls have included the SNP. It's made me wonder if they have included Scotland!

[Moulin Yarns]

Without going back I'm not sure any of these polls have included the SNP. It's made me wonder if they have included Scotland!

I'm sure, UK wide, the snp vote registers around 3%, so probably not significant enough for UK wide polls. Ozy will be along soon to correct me if I'm wrong. 😉

Does it add up to 100%?

[HiBremian]

Clearly, not everyone can see through Johnson as well as this constituent (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/video/2019/oct/06/filthy-piece-of-toerag-boris-johnson-constituent-speaks-her-mind-video).

Essentially, the coming election will be an intelligence test.


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[JeMeSouviens]

Strange poll that doesn't include SNP.

They are, just not copied in the tweet that MY quoted:

https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-3rd-october-2019/

https://www.opinium.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/VI-2019-10-03-Chart-1.png

[Ozyhibby]

It’s going to take a massive amount of tactical voting just to get to a hung parliament. I can’t see it happening. I think the Tories will get a small majority.


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[SHODAN]

If Corbyn/Swinson don't form some sort of anti-Johnson pact then we're ****ed. But we all know that will never happen is Corbyn is stubborn and Swinson is basically a Tory who joined the LDs because of how toxic they are up here.

[Moulin Yarns]

Case lost.

latest Brexit court ruling here - Scottish courts turn down an attempt to force PM to ask for a Brexit extension https://scotcourts.gov.uk/docs/default-s (https://t.co/HO6t0UtqNJ?amp=1)

[Rocky]

Case lost.

latest Brexit court ruling here - Scottish courts turn down an attempt to force PM to ask for a Brexit extension https://scotcourts.gov.uk/docs/default-s (https://t.co/HO6t0UtqNJ?amp=1)
My understanding is that, whilst the case is technically lost, it's effectively achieved its aim anyway - i.e. the government was forced in to making submissions in defence of the case which mean they're legally bound to send the letter anyway. And if for whatever reason they don't send the letter they can quite quickly be hauled back in front of court for breach of undertakings made.

[Moulin Yarns]

Anti-no deal campaigners will use different legal method in court tomorrow to try again

[lapsedhibee]

My understanding is that, whilst the case is technically lost, it's effectively achieved its aim anyway - i.e. the government was forced in to making submissions in defence of the case which mean they're legally bound to send the letter anyway. And if for whatever reason they don't send the letter they can quite quickly be hauled back in front of court for breach of undertakings made.

:agree: But the main news programmes will be hailing a victory for Johnson.

[JeMeSouviens]

My understanding is that, whilst the case is technically lost, it's effectively achieved its aim anyway - i.e. the government was forced in to making submissions in defence of the case which mean they're legally bound to send the letter anyway. And if for whatever reason they don't send the letter they can quite quickly be hauled back in front of court for breach of undertakings made.

:agree:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EGRlmF8X0AI6NMx?format=png

Edit: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EGRlmF8X0AI6NMx?format=png if too small to read.

[Ozyhibby]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191007/4cf671a9e0317e1641275243fb0d344c.jpg


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[mjhibby]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191007/4cf671a9e0317e1641275243fb0d344c.jpg


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Massive variation in the polls. There is no way the Tories are 15 points ahead. It's more likely half that. Remember may was allegedly 20 points ahead. Johnson is only appealing to leave voters in leave majority seats. Its still looking very much like a hung parliament as bumbling Boris will lose at least ten in Scotland,ten to fifteen of those deselected,three or four of the dups and of course for every leave seat he gets he could we'll lose a remain one. There has been no poll in months showing a majority for leave so he getting desperate hence the screaming rhetoric. Also during an election his weaknesses will show up. I'd think the Tories will end up around 300 seats and the opposition can form a govt if they wish. Who the hell would be the pm is of course another matter.

[Just Alf]

Clearly, not everyone can see through Johnson as well as this constituent (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/video/2019/oct/06/filthy-piece-of-toerag-boris-johnson-constituent-speaks-her-mind-video).
My understanding is that, whilst the case is technically lost, it's effectively achieved its aim anyway - i.e. the government was forced in to making submissions in defence of the case which mean they're legally bound to send the letter anyway. And if for whatever reason they don't send the letter they can quite quickly be hauled back in front of court for breach of undertakings made.My reading of it was more along the lines of "we have this confirmation/letter from the government that they will abide by the law so don't need to make a ruling"

Now if they don't send the letter if they've not agreed a deal they'll be both breaking the law and in contempt of court.


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[mjhibby]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191007/4cf671a9e0317e1641275243fb0d344c.jpg


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For all the noise I'm sure very few have changed their view. Also every poll on leave with no deal has been very much against it. Only the mail and the sun write false narratives hinting otherwise. Cummings and Johnson are not in control of what's happening and it's showing. If it's no deal the Tories will be destroyed at an election if we get the chaos anticipated and if we get an extension the brexit party will take loads of votes off them. I can't see how the Tories can get a majority.

[lapsedhibee]

My reading of it was more along the lines of "we have this confirmation/letter from the government that they will abide by the law so don't need to make a ruling"

Now if they don't send the letter if they've not agreed a deal they'll be both breaking the law and in contempt of court.

I think if the case had succeeded and the judge had made an order, Johnson would have been in contempt. But because the case failed, new proceedings will have to be brought against him if/when he reneges.

[mjhibby]

Edit: im going to be more straightforward to avoid any misunderstanding.

Where does the "hundreds of thousands" figure come from? Is it Yellowhammer.

If true it is a great concern.

Both yellowhammer and the CBI which is hardly left wing. Most commentators say there will be chaos for three to six months. At least half of small businesses have done nothing to get ready for no deal brexit.All the narrative from the govt makes no mention of any of this. Also Johnson is never challenged on how we are leaving on the 31st when to do so without a deal is breaking the law. Something not adding up here. It looks more like every day the govt and Cummings are making it up as they go along.

[Cataplana]

Both yellowhammer and the CBI which is hardly left wing. Most commentators say there will be chaos for three to six months. At least half of small businesses have done nothing to get ready for no deal brexit.All the narrative from the govt makes no mention of any of this. Also Johnson is never challenged on how we are leaving on the 31st when to do so without a deal is breaking the law. Something not adding up here. It looks more like every day the govt and Cummings are making it up as they go along.

Believable if companies have done nothing. Bound to have to lay people off if cash flow is seriously disrupted.

[Just Alf]

I think if the case had succeeded and the judge had made an order, Johnson would have been in contempt. But because the case failed, new proceedings will have to be brought against him if/when he reneges.Might be right... I was thinking that if you state you'll do something to the judge/court then do something different you'd then be in contempt?

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[Jack]

Found this ...

Brexit Job Loss Index: 420,348 Jobs Lost As Of 24 September 2019

The Brexit Job Loss Index is an attempt to keep track of the number of jobs lost in the UK due to Brexit.

Here are the key stats (last updated 24/09/2019):

Total Jobs Lost: 420,348
Total Annual Wages Lost*: £12,054,319,596
Reduction in Annual Income Tax & National Insurance Receipts**: £3,610,314,326.76

Job Losses By Region

Scotland: 29,836
Midlands: 26,227
North East: 21,179
London: 20,930
Wales 13,400
South West: 12,328
North West: 7,980
East of England: 4,753
South East: 4,751
Northern Ireland: 2,515
Gibraltar: 1,000
Southern England: 870
No specific region: 274,579

More here https://smallbusinessprices.co.uk/brexit-index/

[Rocky]

Might be right... I was thinking that if you state you'll do something to the judge/court then do something different you'd then be in contempt?

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I think we're saying the same thing in slightly different ways.

[danhibees1875]

Found this ...

Brexit Job Loss Index: 420,348 Jobs Lost As Of 24 September 2019

The Brexit Job Loss Index is an attempt to keep track of the number of jobs lost in the UK due to Brexit.

Here are the key stats (last updated 24/09/2019):

Total Jobs Lost: 420,348
Total Annual Wages Lost*: £12,054,319,596
Reduction in Annual Income Tax & National Insurance Receipts**: £3,610,314,326.76

Job Losses By Region

Scotland: 29,836
Midlands: 26,227
North East: 21,179
London: 20,930
Wales 13,400
South West: 12,328
North West: 7,980
East of England: 4,753
South East: 4,751
Northern Ireland: 2,515
Gibraltar: 1,000
Southern England: 870
No specific region: 274,579

More here https://smallbusinessprices.co.uk/brexit-index/

I'm not fan of brexit, but that seems like some loose methodology there!

[Curried]

I'm not fan of brexit, but that seems like some loose methodology there!

Indeed. The author of this blog appears to be drawing a long bow by attributing redundancies such as those at Thomas Cook to Brexit! Moreover, the last time I looked Scotland and Wales were countries not regions of the UK.

[Ozyhibby]

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/10/how-number-10-view-the-state-of-the-negotiations/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
Worth a read.


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[lapsedhibee]

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/10/how-number-10-view-the-state-of-the-negotiations/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
Worth a read.

Ireland's fault, forriners should do what they're told, we're going to circumvent the law, etc.

[Ozyhibby]

It’s interesting that they are going to campaign on no deal. Might change the dynamic of things.


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[HiBremian]

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/10/how-number-10-view-the-state-of-the-negotiations/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
Worth a read.


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Classic Dom


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[Cataplana]

Ireland's fault, forriners should do what they're told, we're going to circumvent the law, etc.

Reads like they are saying it's Parliament's fault, to me. The deal would have been done, if the Benn Act hasn't passed.

He says it's "almost rational" for Varadker to think that way.

The man that wrote that shows psychopathic tendencies in his grandiosity towards others, and citing his place in history on the back of this.

Certainly right and wrong play no part in his thoughts, only his own hubris, and need to achieve his own personal aims.

He'd be none the worse for a bullet in the head, and should be nowhere near the wheels of power.

[Ozyhibby]

https://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/politics/warning-over-dogging-rise-if-lorries-are-stuck-in-traffic-in-no-deal-brexit-backlog-1-9097677/amp?__twitter_impression=true
Unexpected no deal consequences.[emoji23]


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[Cataplana]

https://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/politics/warning-over-dogging-rise-if-lorries-are-stuck-in-traffic-in-no-deal-brexit-backlog-1-9097677/amp?__twitter_impression=true
Unexpected no deal consequences.[emoji23]


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News is the new satire.

[mjhibby]

It’s interesting that they are going to campaign on no deal. Might change the dynamic of things.


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Very strange strategy as the vast majority don't want a no deal. I'm sure it's just bluster and when they don't get it they can blame everybody else. The opposition need to have a strategy going into the election with truly scary stories about an actual no deal. They need to fight fire with fire. Constant drip feed of stories to combat Moriarty Cummings. Just give bruiser Campbell a ring I'm sure he'd be happy to help. Still the best at what he does. Not my fekkin problem.

[JeMeSouviens]

Very strange strategy as the vast majority don't want a no deal. I'm sure it's just bluster and when they don't get it they can blame everybody else. The opposition need to have a strategy going into the election with truly scary stories about an actual no deal. They need to fight fire with fire. Constant drip feed of stories to combat Moriarty Cummings. Just give bruiser Campbell a ring I'm sure he'd be happy to help. Still the best at what he does. Not my fekkin problem.

They only need ~35% for a majority as long as the Remain vote splits.

UK gov has all but given up on a deal. They are briefing heavily this morning about a Merkel-Johnson call where they allege Merkel demanded NI be in EU customs territory for ever. What better to unite that 35% than whipping up anti-German hysteria? :rolleyes:

[Ozyhibby]

Looks like talks are over and it’s either no deal or no brexit. Stakes very high now in GE.

https://twitter.com/peston/status/1181500469690195968?s=21

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191008/922902f99b131e5f6dfaa768d0790ae0.jpg


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[JeMeSouviens]

Well I never ... :rolleyes:


Sam Coates Sky@SamCoatesSky

EU countries are a bit baffled about this account of the Johnson-Merkel meeting. “It doesn’t sound like Merkel”, says one. diplomat.

[Just_Jimmy]

So N Ireland get to stay but therefore earning a huge economic bonus over Scotland.

Seems legit...

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[lapsedhibee]

Well I never ... :rolleyes:

"An anonymous No 10 source briefed broadcast journalists, saying Merkel “made clear a deal is overwhelmingly unlikely and she thinks the EU has a veto on us leaving the customs union”. Downing Street did not deny the contents of the statement."

What madness is this? The Genius spraffs ***** to journalists, and then The Genius does not deny that the ***** is true. Verily, as the bloke complaining in the hospital said, La-la Land.

[JeMeSouviens]

A new Brexit report from the IFS says even the threat of Brexit so far has cost the UK economy 2.5-3% of output (£50-60 BILLION pounds).

It predicts a no deal Brexit would push borrowing higher and put UK national debt at 90% of GDP, a 50-year high.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EGVfCT0XoAAF2V6?format=jpg&name=medium

[JeMeSouviens]

Question of the day is will the UK news (Laura Kuenssberg, Robert Peston et al) call out the blatant lies about the Merkel-Johnson call when they are denied from the German side or will they continue to breathlessly transmit the latest blethering from Dom?

(Yeah, I know, we all know but ffs ... :rolleyes:)

[Ozyhibby]

A new Brexit report from the IFS says even the threat of Brexit so far has cost the UK economy 2.5-3% of output (£50-60 BILLION pounds).

It predicts a no deal Brexit would push borrowing higher and put UK national debt at 90% of GDP, a 50-year high.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EGVfCT0XoAAF2V6?format=jpg&name=medium

They are basically saying we are better off under Corbyn which is helpful to Labour in GE campaign.


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[JeMeSouviens]

Tusk tweets Johnson direct:


Donald Tusk @eucopresident

.@BorisJohnson
, what’s at stake is not winning some stupid blame game. At stake is the future of Europe and the UK as well as the security and interests of our people. You don’t want a deal, you don’t want an extension, you don’t want to revoke, quo vadis?

Good man, Don. :agree:

[Peevemor]

Tusk tweets Johnson direct:



Good man, Don. :agree:

Excellent!

[JeMeSouviens]

They are basically saying we are better off under Corbyn which is helpful to Labour in GE campaign.


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They clarify their assumptions in the report. The "Remain" scenario is a Lab minority - hence Corbyn inhibited from full-fat Corbynism. But I agree, still very helpful in a campaign. Precious few will get the distinction.

[Ozyhibby]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191008/094f522b6cfd0e8452cfe000855f10b3.jpg



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[JeMeSouviens]

The NI secretary is not happy with Dom:


Julian Smith MP@JulianSmithUK

I am clear that any threat on withdrawing security cooperation with Ireland is unacceptable. This is not in the interest of NI or the Union.

He'll never get on in the Tory party with sensible chat like that.

[Callum_62]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191008/094f522b6cfd0e8452cfe000855f10b3.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using TapatalkFreedom for Scotland, I agree.

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[JeMeSouviens]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191008/094f522b6cfd0e8452cfe000855f10b3.jpg



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The Nige factor has been a bit undervalued in GE chat I think. He's been very quiet recently but his electoral pact overtures seem to have been spurned and he could still come out claiming full on betrayal if Johnson has to cave and request an extension. Could yet be a big thorn in the Tory arse.

[mjhibby]

They only need ~35% for a majority as long as the Remain vote splits.

UK gov has all but given up on a deal. They are briefing heavily this morning about a Merkel-Johnson call where they allege Merkel demanded NI be in EU customs territory for ever. What better to unite that 35% than whipping up anti-German hysteria? :rolleyes:

It's impossible to say what it will take for him to win. This is the most volatile election in history but I don't think enough labour voters will vote Tory and the polls are suggesting this. Johnson still has a huge mountain to climb to get any size of majority. The telegraph admits he will not win on brexit alone so it's not just me. Predicting this election would be silly as nobody knows what will happen.

[mjhibby]

I'm sure leaks will come out the EU during an election. Cummings shouldn't mess with tusk and Merkel as I'm sure they will not take his nonsense.

[JeMeSouviens]

It's impossible to say what it will take for him to win. This is the most volatile election in history but I don't think enough labour voters will vote Tory and the polls are suggesting this. Johnson still has a huge mountain to climb to get any size of majority. The telegraph admits he will not win on brexit alone so it's not just me. Predicting this election would be silly as nobody knows what will happen.

:agree:

Even more volatile than last time, which was historically speaking very volatile. If I had to bet now I'd go for another hung parliament.

[mjhibby]

:agree:

Even more volatile than last time, which was historically speaking very volatile. If I had to bet now I'd go for another hung parliament.

Folk are also forgetting that many folk might be seeing the only resolution as a second referendum and staying in the EU. All depends on the opposition showing a united front and it could happen.

[southsider]

Folk are also forgetting that many folk might be seeing the only resolution as a second referendum and staying in the EU. All depends on the opposition showing a united front and it could happen.

Debt rising to 90 percent of GDP what’s not to like about Brexit.

[Ozyhibby]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191008/c64d5776539077d6fd32b50906fbd9ad.jpg


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[BroxburnHibee]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191008/c64d5776539077d6fd32b50906fbd9ad.jpg


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Jeez I'm genuinely worried about this stuff.

[JeMeSouviens]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191008/c64d5776539077d6fd32b50906fbd9ad.jpg


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As predictable as it is pathetic. :rolleyes:

[weecounty hibby]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191008/c64d5776539077d6fd32b50906fbd9ad.jpg


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Please tell me that is not real! Further and further into right wing little Englander territory by the day if it is real. Worrying times for everyone but more so for us in Scotland. We are an afterthought most of the time anyway and that will only get worse with this shift towards English nationalism at the heart of Westminster politics

[WeeRussell]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191008/c64d5776539077d6fd32b50906fbd9ad.jpg


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Dear lord. Excuse the ignorance but is that from a legit group with significant standing/following?!

[JeMeSouviens]

Dear lord. Excuse the ignorance but is that from a legit group with significant standing/following?!

It's from Leave.eu, the Arron Banks/Farage campaign group = the provisional wing of Leave.

[Ozyhibby]

A new Brexit report from the IFS says even the threat of Brexit so far has cost the UK economy 2.5-3% of output (£50-60 BILLION pounds).

It predicts a no deal Brexit would push borrowing higher and put UK national debt at 90% of GDP, a 50-year high.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EGVfCT0XoAAF2V6?format=jpg&name=medium

We need the IFS to knock up one of those for iScotland staying in the EU v leaving with rUK.


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[JeMeSouviens]

Nicholas Watt @nicholaswatt

Former member of Theresa May’s cabinet not convinced by No 10 account of Angela Merkel’s thinking on #brexit. ‘It was about as convincing as Dick Van Dyke’s cockney accent in Mary Poppins.’

:greengrin

[Pretty Boy]

It's time for every opposition party to put partisan loyalties to one side for the time being and agree to work together tactically to get these nut jobs out of power in the long term and to thwart this personal no deal crusade in the short term.

Nicola Sturgeon has already hinted she would be open to supporting a transitional government in the right circumstances. Maybe the time has come for the SNP, Labour, the SDLP, the Greens, Plaid and any independents to really sit down and come to an acceptable consensus. That's potentially 325 MPs on side and discounting the speaker and Sinn Fein abstainers gives both a degree of influence and forces Jo Swinson to decide where her loyalties really lie. With the Lib Dems on side it should be possible to bring down the government and form a unity government until a no deal Brexit is avoided and an extension granted.

Beyond that there is obviously the matter of a general election and how to play that tactically but it's almost reached a stage at which everything has to be done on a day to day basis.

[JeMeSouviens]

It's time for every opposition party to put partisan loyalties to one side for the time being and agree to work together tactically to get these nut jobs out of power in the long term and to thwart this personal no deal crusade in the short term.

Nicola Sturgeon has already hinted she would be open to supporting a transitional government in the right circumstances. Maybe the time has come for the SNP, Labour, the SDLP, the Greens, Plaid and any independents to really sit down and come to an acceptable consensus. That's potentially 325 MPs on side and discounting the speaker and Sinn Fein abstainers gives both a degree of influence and forces Jo Swinson to decide where her loyalties really lie. With the Lib Dems on side it should be possible to bring down the government and form a unity government until a no deal Brexit is avoided and an extension granted.

Beyond that there is obviously the matter of a general election and how to play that tactically but it's almost reached a stage at which everything has to be done on a day to day basis.

I'd say this goes beyond a hint to be fair ...


Nicola Sturgeon @NicolaSturgeon

Both Labour and the Lib Dems need to grow up. Who leads a temporary govt that will be in office for just a matter of days is not the key issue. What matters is getting this Tory government out, securing an extension and then having a General Election ASAP.

[SHODAN]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191008/c64d5776539077d6fd32b50906fbd9ad.jpg


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Get this to ****, I want out of this madness.

[Mantis Toboggan]

Their twitter account is a ****ing disgrace

[JeMeSouviens]

It's time for every opposition party to put partisan loyalties to one side for the time being and agree to work together tactically to get these nut jobs out of power in the long term and to thwart this personal no deal crusade in the short term.

Nicola Sturgeon has already hinted she would be open to supporting a transitional government in the right circumstances. Maybe the time has come for the SNP, Labour, the SDLP, the Greens, Plaid and any independents to really sit down and come to an acceptable consensus. That's potentially 325 MPs on side and discounting the speaker and Sinn Fein abstainers gives both a degree of influence and forces Jo Swinson to decide where her loyalties really lie. With the Lib Dems on side it should be possible to bring down the government and form a unity government until a no deal Brexit is avoided and an extension granted.

Beyond that there is obviously the matter of a general election and how to play that tactically but it's almost reached a stage at which everything has to be done on a day to day basis.

You also need a decent number of the 21 Tory rebels that are currently sitting as Independents. Some of them will be hard to get onside as they still have half an eye on a Tory career after Johnson. Bringing the govt down is effectively burning the last bridge.

[CloudSquall]

https://pbs.twimg.com/ad_img/1181576938336538624/VcO-WiUh?format=jpg&name=small




1966 will see us through boys :greengrin

Edit: Did no one bother to check Germany's World Cup record before printing?

[Cataplana]

I'd say this goes beyond a hint to be fair ...

Hosie was on Newsnight a couple of weeks ago, when asked who would be a suitable caretaker, he suggested Kier Stalmer. Definitely up for a deal IMO.

[Bristolhibby]

You also need a decent number of the 21 Tory rebels that are currently sitting as Independents. Some of them will be hard to get onside as they still have half an eye on a Tory career after Johnson. Bringing the govt down is effectively burning the last bridge.

Na, it’s the first step back to reclaiming their BREXIT/UKIP infiltrated party.

J

[CloudSquall]

Latest polling from Comres..


"If the EU doesn't agree to Boris Johnson's proposals for a Brexit deal, the UK should leave on 31st Oct without a deal:

Agree: 42%
Disagree: 40%

via
@ComRes
, 04 - 06 Oct"




"I will feel...

Relieved if we do not leave the EU on 31 Oct:
Agree: 37%
Disagree: 45%

Angry if we do not leave the EU on 31 Oct:
Agree: 40%
Disagree: 44%

via
@ComRes
, 04 - 06 Oct"



The UK would struggle to be any more divided..

[GlesgaeHibby]

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****ing hell...genuinely can't believe that's real. Xenophobic, racist ****.

[The Harp Awakes]

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This kind of stuff will now become commonplace sadly. This is where the language e.g., surrender act, used by Boris and his fellow extremists over the last weeks inevitably takes us. Add in a willingness to break the law and it mobalises the fascists.

I've always wanted Scotland to be independent through it's own free will, but the UK may soon implode as a result of English nationalism.

[JeMeSouviens]

The Brexiters actually remind me a lot of the old Rangers. Carried away on their own tide of triumphalism and hubris. When it all started to implode, their exceptionalist mindset told them everything would be fine because of who they were and in the end everybody would cave because the world revolved around them.

They probably all sing that song about German bombers as well. :rolleyes:

[lapsedhibee]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191008/c64d5776539077d6fd32b50906fbd9ad.jpg

I've followed the whole Brexit saga pretty closely since the referendum result, watched a lot of Parliament TV, etc etc, and reckon I understand a great deal of what's gone and going on. But one thing I cannot get my head round at all, no matter how hard I try - why on earth do Brexiters complain that they are misrepresented as being thick? :dunno:

[Ozyhibby]

https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/alexwickham/downing-street-is-split-as-senior-boris-johnsons-allies?__twitter_impression=true


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[Mibbes Aye]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191008/094f522b6cfd0e8452cfe000855f10b3.jpg



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A new militarised empire - I’m assuming that is EU ‘version next’, with the usual robust governance, accountability, and a joint defence policy to deal with 21C issues, while remaining progressive, democratic and socially liberal.

Where do I sign up?

[Bristolhibby]

I’ve noticed the arguments from hardline Brexit supporters often talk about an “EU Army”.

Rising to near hysteria at the thought of their children / grandchildren getting conscripted into an European Army.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/25/brexiters-european-army-myths-franco-german

[Mibbes Aye]

I’ve noticed the arguments from hardline Brexit supporters often talk about an “EU Army”.

Rising to near hysteria at the thought of their children / grandchildren getting conscripted into an European Army.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/25/brexiters-european-army-myths-franco-german

It is a good article and does well to highlight the anti-piracy work that is the most prominent example of EU military co-operation, very much driven by the UK.

The other thing that interests me is that much of Europe phased out conscription but there has been a trend to reintroduce some form of national service, not necessarily in the military but in the community or in social care.

It (national service, not necessarily military) has never been something that seems to have been popular here, I think it may have been mooted at some point by Brown or Cameron or their advisers, which I guess suggests it has some centrist appeal, but not enough traction to attract enough support.

Curiously, given the SNP and a lot of supporters seem to be keen to promote a sense of civic nationalism, I wonder whether this would be fertile ground for them - promoting a form of national service, not militaristic by choice, but contributing something to the civic good?

[Ozyhibby]

It is a good article and does well to highlight the anti-piracy work that is the most prominent example of EU military co-operation, very much driven by the UK.

The other thing that interests me is that much of Europe phased out conscription but there has been a trend to reintroduce some form of national service, not necessarily in the military but in the community or in social care.

It (national service, not necessarily military) has never been something that seems to have been popular here, I think it may have been mooted at some point by Brown or Cameron or their advisers, which I guess suggests it has some centrist appeal, but not enough traction to attract enough support.

Curiously, given the SNP and a lot of supporters seem to be keen to promote a sense of civic nationalism, I wonder whether this would be fertile ground for them - promoting a form of national service, not militaristic by choice, but contributing something to the civic good?

Conscription is forced labour and should have no place in any modern liberal society. Once it starts it will grow.
If a govt has work it needs done then it should raise taxes and pay people to do that work of its own free will.



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[Bristolhibby]

I like the civic nationalism thing. The problem in this day and age is how the hell do we pay for it?

I also don’t like the idea of being forced to do something.

I think it (National Service) has been too far gone to come back.

We question things more. Back in the day, if you were told to go, you went. We and this generation won’t do that.

J

[Ozyhibby]

I like the civic nationalism thing. The problem in this day and age is how the hell do we pay for it?

I also don’t like the idea of being forced to do something.

I think it (National Service) has been too far gone to come back.

We question things more. Back in the day, if you were told to go, you went. We and this generation won’t do that.

J

And rightly so.


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[puff the dragon]

There is only one outcome here chaps - we leave the EU on 31st October WITH a deal.

* all the news today about the BoJo proposals being unworkable are a mixture of misinformation deliberately ‘leaked’ to the media and chest beating by officials in the early stages of negotiation (deals are struck at the last minute - not on day 1)
* the EU are sick of brexit and want it done - BoJo is not daft enough to not leave wriggle room in his proposal so there is lots to work with
* the compromises the EU will make will result in an ultimatum to parliament to either take the deal, leave with no deal or revoke article 50 (and the later 2 is unsupportable by all bar SNP MP’s)
* BoJo knows he’ll get his deal through Parliament as he’ll have engaged enough sensible labour MP’s.
* why would the EU grant an extension when a monkey could work out it would return BoJo with a landslide majority government on a ‘no deal’ ticket.
* the deal will be approved by Ireland (as they won’t veto it in the EU) and the UK so no issues with the good Friday agreement. Only the SNP will feel hard done by that Northern Ireland get a nice power and they are irrelevant in this vote/debate as the UK government could announce the Earth is round and they’d disagree
* BoJo is still adamant publicly we’re leaving on the 31st - he doesn’t back losers - everything to date is part of his plan.

16/1 leave with a deal on Ladbrokes.......

after the deal is struck:
* general election
* BoJo destroys all opposition parties for the surrender bill, the court case and incorrect judges verdict (which will be incorrect if he gets a deal) and for not backing Britain
* BoJo wins in a landslide

Far to often do people dismiss this man as a bumbling Buffon - he is anything but and all opponents have taken the bait.

[Ozyhibby]

There is only one outcome here chaps - we leave the EU on 31st October WITH a deal.

* all the news today about the BoJo proposals being unworkable are a mixture of misinformation deliberately ‘leaked’ to the media and chest beating by officials in the early stages of negotiation (deals are struck at the last minute - not on day 1)
* the EU are sick of brexit and want it done - BoJo is not daft enough to not leave wriggle room in his proposal so there is lots to work with
* the compromises the EU will make will result in an ultimatum to parliament to either take the deal, leave with no deal or revoke article 50 (and the later 2 is unsupportable by all bar SNP MP’s)
* BoJo knows he’ll get his deal through Parliament as he’ll have engaged enough sensible labour MP’s.
* why would the EU grant an extension when a monkey could work out it would return BoJo with a landslide majority government on a ‘no deal’ ticket.
* the deal will be approved by Ireland (as they won’t veto it in the EU) and the UK so no issues with the good Friday agreement. Only the SNP will feel hard done by that Northern Ireland get a nice power and they are irrelevant in this vote/debate as the UK government could announce the Earth is round and they’d disagree
* BoJo is still adamant publicly we’re leaving on the 31st - he doesn’t back losers - everything to date is part of his plan.

16/1 leave with a deal on Ladbrokes.......

after the deal is struck:
* general election
* BoJo destroys all opposition parties for the surrender bill, the court case and incorrect judges verdict (which will be incorrect if he gets a deal) and for not backing Britain
* BoJo wins in a landslide

Far to often do people dismiss this man as a bumbling Buffon - he is anything but and all opponents have taken the bait.

You should put money on all that happening. You’ll be absolutely loaded.[emoji23]


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[puff the dragon]

You should put money on all that happening. You’ll be absolutely loaded.[emoji23]


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already on the 16/1 leave with a deal on the 31st of October dude. An investment

[lapsedhibee]

Far to often do people dismiss this man as a bumbling Buffon - he is anything but and all opponents have taken the bait.
:bitchy:
Johnson is way too fat to be a top level goalkeeper.

[CloudSquall]

There is only one outcome here chaps - we leave the EU on 31st October WITH a deal.

* all the news today about the BoJo proposals being unworkable are a mixture of misinformation deliberately ‘leaked’ to the media and chest beating by officials in the early stages of negotiation (deals are struck at the last minute - not on day 1)
* the EU are sick of brexit and want it done - BoJo is not daft enough to not leave wriggle room in his proposal so there is lots to work with
* the compromises the EU will make will result in an ultimatum to parliament to either take the deal, leave with no deal or revoke article 50 (and the later 2 is unsupportable by all bar SNP MP’s)
* BoJo knows he’ll get his deal through Parliament as he’ll have engaged enough sensible labour MP’s.
* why would the EU grant an extension when a monkey could work out it would return BoJo with a landslide majority government on a ‘no deal’ ticket.
* the deal will be approved by Ireland (as they won’t veto it in the EU) and the UK so no issues with the good Friday agreement. Only the SNP will feel hard done by that Northern Ireland get a nice power and they are irrelevant in this vote/debate as the UK government could announce the Earth is round and they’d disagree
* BoJo is still adamant publicly we’re leaving on the 31st - he doesn’t back losers - everything to date is part of his plan.

16/1 leave with a deal on Ladbrokes.......

after the deal is struck:
* general election
* BoJo destroys all opposition parties for the surrender bill, the court case and incorrect judges verdict (which will be incorrect if he gets a deal) and for not backing Britain
* BoJo wins in a landslide

Far to often do people dismiss this man as a bumbling Buffon - he is anything but and all opponents have taken the bait.


I thought I was risking it by going through a bottle of wine tonight however I'd love to have been on whatever you've taken to write that up :greengrin

[mjhibby]

I thought I was risking it by going through a bottle of wine tonight however I'd love to have been on whatever you've taken to write that up :greengrin

Me too. Order me a case of what you've been drinking. It's sounds like an amazing tipple.

[Mibbes Aye]

There is only one outcome here chaps - we leave the EU on 31st October WITH a deal.

* all the news today about the BoJo proposals being unworkable are a mixture of misinformation deliberately ‘leaked’ to the media and chest beating by officials in the early stages of negotiation (deals are struck at the last minute - not on day 1)
* the EU are sick of brexit and want it done - BoJo is not daft enough to not leave wriggle room in his proposal so there is lots to work with
* the compromises the EU will make will result in an ultimatum to parliament to either take the deal, leave with no deal or revoke article 50 (and the later 2 is unsupportable by all bar SNP MP’s)
* BoJo knows he’ll get his deal through Parliament as he’ll have engaged enough sensible labour MP’s.
* why would the EU grant an extension when a monkey could work out it would return BoJo with a landslide majority government on a ‘no deal’ ticket.
* the deal will be approved by Ireland (as they won’t veto it in the EU) and the UK so no issues with the good Friday agreement. Only the SNP will feel hard done by that Northern Ireland get a nice power and they are irrelevant in this vote/debate as the UK government could announce the Earth is round and they’d disagree
* BoJo is still adamant publicly we’re leaving on the 31st - he doesn’t back losers - everything to date is part of his plan.

16/1 leave with a deal on Ladbrokes.......

after the deal is struck:
* general election
* BoJo destroys all opposition parties for the surrender bill, the court case and incorrect judges verdict (which will be incorrect if he gets a deal) and for not backing Britain
* BoJo wins in a landslide

Far to often do people dismiss this man as a bumbling Buffon - he is anything but and all opponents have taken the bait.

Despite some of the responses to you, I can see where you are coming from with your first few points.

But I don’t think the EU want the UK leaving, that is calamitous.

The fault line over Ireland will trigger an extension and a general election will follow. It feels hard to see how a referendum doesn’t arise as a consequence of the election, whatever the outcome - or the election becomes a referendum as such. Even if Boris and Farage unite on a no-deal platform it is doubtful whether they will secure a parliamentary majority.

I really didn’t want to live in such interesting times.

[Bristolhibby]

Despite some of the responses to you, I can see where you are coming from with your first few points.

But I don’t think the EU want the UK leaving, that is calamitous.

The fault line over Ireland will trigger an extension and a general election will follow. It feels hard to see how a referendum doesn’t arise as a consequence of the election, whatever the outcome - or the election becomes a referendum as such. Even if Boris and Farage unite on a no-deal platform it is doubtful whether they will secure a parliamentary majority.

I really didn’t want to live in such interesting times.

I think Farage has said, the Brexit party will only stand down if the Tories campaign for “No Deal”, anything less and they are going toe to toe with the Tories.

J

[puff the dragon]

Despite some of the responses to you, I can see where you are coming from with your first few points.

But I don’t think the EU want the UK leaving, that is calamitous.

The fault line over Ireland will trigger an extension and a general election will follow. It feels hard to see how a referendum doesn’t arise as a consequence of the election, whatever the outcome - or the election becomes a referendum as such. Even if Boris and Farage unite on a no-deal platform it is doubtful whether they will secure a parliamentary majority.

I really didn’t want to live in such interesting times.

i see where you are with the 2nd referendum but I see little point in holding one if the 1st result isn’t respected. Any 2nd referendum would be a ‘should we rejoin the EU?’ Question. Agree with brexit or not, serious questions would arise about our democracy if 17 million people instruct the government to do something and they don’t (Tory and labour know this so won’t seriously push for it as their parties will be dead in the sea).

The 2nd GE fought as a ‘referendum rerun’ in the event of an extension is absolutely going to happen. Only issue is first past the post skews it massively as BoJo only needs about 38% in reality as opposed to 50.1% (see the SNP in 2015 returning 95% of the seats on around 40%). That’s why I think the EU will see it in everybody’s interest it’s done and dusted this month - it’s highly likely BoJo is coming back and he’ll either leave immediately or sit back and veto every piece of business the EU try to do.

the general election campaign started as a precaution to the EU granting an extension. I doubt very much Merkel said anything of the sort to BoJo that she is attributed to yesterday, however a ‘Downing street insider’ has leaked it so now it’s fact. You are already seeing how leave UK and the rest of the media are treating something which is unattributed to any individual in authority and I can only imagine how the daily mail are treating it today. The core Tory support won’t accept the Germans telling us how to govern the UK so will be riled in BoJo’s favour, whether they actually did or not is irrelevant now.

[puff the dragon]

I think Farage has said, the Brexit party will only stand down if the Tories campaign for “No Deal”, anything less and they are going toe to toe with the Tories.

J

Agree so farage is an irrelevance in this - Boris would stand on a no deal ticket so Brexit party as finished as UKIP

[lapsedhibee]

it’s highly likely BoJo is coming back
Despite commentators saying that Johnson's bad behaviour is 'priced in', I think if he's found to have been channelling taxpayers' money to his special friend then he might not be coming back.

[puff the dragon]

Despite commentators saying that Johnson's bad behaviour is 'priced in', I think if he's found to have been channelling taxpayers' money to his special friend then he might not be coming back.

i don’t think anyone really cares about that apart from people who wouldn’t vote for him anyway.

[Ozyhibby]

i don’t think anyone really cares about that apart from people who wouldn’t vote for him anyway.

It’s against the law. It’s not about votes. It’s about whether he can avoid being charged.


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[Speedy]

i see where you are with the 2nd referendum but I see little point in holding one if the 1st result isn’t respected. Any 2nd referendum would be a ‘should we rejoin the EU?’ Question. Agree with brexit or not, serious questions would arise about our democracy if 17 million people instruct the government to do something and they don’t (Tory and labour know this so won’t seriously push for it as their parties will be dead in the sea).

The 2nd GE fought as a ‘referendum rerun’ in the event of an extension is absolutely going to happen. Only issue is first past the post skews it massively as BoJo only needs about 38% in reality as opposed to 50.1% (see the SNP in 2015 returning 95% of the seats on around 40%). That’s why I think the EU will see it in everybody’s interest it’s done and dusted this month - it’s highly likely BoJo is coming back and he’ll either leave immediately or sit back and veto every piece of business the EU try to do.

the general election campaign started as a precaution to the EU granting an extension. I doubt very much Merkel said anything of the sort to BoJo that she is attributed to yesterday, however a ‘Downing street insider’ has leaked it so now it’s fact. You are already seeing how leave UK and the rest of the media are treating something which is unattributed to any individual in authority and I can only imagine how the daily mail are treating it today. The core Tory support won’t accept the Germans telling us how to govern the UK so will be riled in BoJo’s favour, whether they actually did or not is irrelevant now.

Don't want to get in to a big debate about it,as I think we're too far gone to actually reach a positive outcome at this stage, but I think a second referendum is the best way to resolve.

Vote in order of preference on no deal, specific deal, remain. If no overall majority then lowest tally is eliminated with their second preference deciding the outcome. Will there be outcry if remain wins, absolutely. However it would also show that leave at all costs isn't what the country wants. Conversely, if a version of leave wins then it is clear - no objections based on differing views on how we leave or any claims of protest votes etc., just a clear mandate to deliver it.

The problem with another referendum is that it is vague. There are multiple policies at play so it doesn't provide a clear mandate. Who does a Tory leaning remain voter opt for for example?

[Ozyhibby]

Don't want to get in to a big debate about it,as I think we're too far gone to actually reach a positive outcome at this stage, but I think a second referendum is the best way to resolve.

Vote in order of preference on no deal, specific deal, remain. If no overall majority then lowest tally is eliminated with their second preference deciding the outcome. Will there be outcry if remain wins, absolutely. However it would also show that leave at all costs isn't what the country wants. Conversely, if a version of leave wins then it is clear - no objections based on differing views on how we leave or any claims of protest votes etc., just a clear mandate to deliver it.

The problem with another referendum is that it is vague. There are multiple policies at play so it doesn't provide a clear mandate. Who does a Tory leaning remain voter opt for for example?

The brexiteers don’t want the deal on offer so the referendum has to be on no deal v remain. No point putting something on the ballot that nobody wants.


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[puff the dragon]

The brexiteers don’t want the deal on offer so the referendum has to be on no deal v remain. No point putting something on the ballot that nobody wants.


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spot on - and there is no appetite for that for 2 reasons:

1) it’s too close to call. No deal is a disaster and if they shouldn’t have asked the first question then they absolutely shouldn’t ask for the cliff edge.

2) remain solves nothing - we can’t move on as a country due to the divisions. We’ll appoint a euro sceptic government who will do nothing but obstruct EU business (look at what the SNP do at Westminster and hollyrood but multiply this impact by 100 as the UK can veto anything it likes in the EU)

the UK and EU only move on from this with a deal and brexit happening. That’s why we’ll get one for a leave on 31st.

if we learn one thing as a country then 2016 should be the last referendum we ever hold.

[Speedy]

The brexiteers don’t want the deal on offer so the referendum has to be on no deal v remain. No point putting something on the ballot that nobody wants.


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If nobody wants it then it'll receive no votes and it'll make no difference having it on there.

If some do want it then at least they get their chance to say so. Assuming that was the smallest vote they their second preference counts.

[lapsedhibee]

spot on - and there is no appetite for that for 2 reasons:

1) it’s too close to call. No deal is a disaster and if they shouldn’t have asked the first question then they absolutely shouldn’t ask for the cliff edge.

2) remain solves nothing - we can’t move on as a country due to the divisions. We’ll appoint a euro sceptic government who will do nothing but obstruct EU business (look at what the SNP do at Westminster and hollyrood but multiply this impact by 100 as the UK can veto anything it likes in the EU)

the UK and EU only move on from this with a deal and brexit happening. That’s why we’ll get one for a leave on 31st.

if we learn one thing as a country then 2016 should be the last referendum we ever hold.

The SNP obstructs business at Holyrood? :confused:

[puff the dragon]

The SNP obstructs business at Holyrood? :confused:

everytime they debate something that is not devolved they are obstructing holyrood business (I.e. items of foreign policy)

they have MP’s at Westminster to debate those

point is - the UK government would be exactly the same in the EU

[Ozyhibby]

If Westminster had paid any attention at all to what happens in Brussels we might not be here.


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[lapsedhibee]

everytime they debate something that is not devolved they are obstructing holyrood business (I.e. items of foreign policy)

they have MP’s at Westminster to debate those

point is - the UK government would be exactly the same in the EU

So every time anyone in the UK parliament mentions, for example, a post-Brexit trade deal with the US, they are wasting parliamentary time/obstructing the business of the UK parliament, because it's not currently in the UK's power to make a post-Brexit trade deal with the US - is that your argument? :dunno:

[puff the dragon]

So every time anyone in the UK parliament mentions, for example, a post-Brexit trade deal with the US, they are wasting parliamentary time/obstructing the business of the UK parliament, because it's not currently in the UK's power to make a post-Brexit trade deal with the US - is that your argument? :dunno:

yes - they are.

[Ozyhibby]

https://twitter.com/brunobrussels/status/1181845952392503296?s=21

Eu make an offer of time limited back stop.


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[lapsedhibee]

https://twitter.com/brunobrussels/status/1181845952392503296?s=21

Eu make an offer of time limited back stop.

Brexiter on that thread asking if a double majority means the Irish would have to vote twice. :faf:

[Ozyhibby]

Brexiter on that thread asking if a double majority means the Irish would have to vote twice. :faf:

It’s a nice little trap set by the EU and Ireland. Will mean NI will constantly be tied closer to Ireland than the UK. And because it’s time limited the UK should be ok with it. Except they won’t be.


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[JeMeSouviens]

There is only one outcome here chaps - we leave the EU on 31st October WITH a deal.

* all the news today about the BoJo proposals being unworkable are a mixture of misinformation deliberately ‘leaked’ to the media and chest beating by officials in the early stages of negotiation (deals are struck at the last minute - not on day 1)
* the EU are sick of brexit and want it done - BoJo is not daft enough to not leave wriggle room in his proposal so there is lots to work with
* the compromises the EU will make will result in an ultimatum to parliament to either take the deal, leave with no deal or revoke article 50 (and the later 2 is unsupportable by all bar SNP MP’s)
* BoJo knows he’ll get his deal through Parliament as he’ll have engaged enough sensible labour MP’s.
* why would the EU grant an extension when a monkey could work out it would return BoJo with a landslide majority government on a ‘no deal’ ticket.
* the deal will be approved by Ireland (as they won’t veto it in the EU) and the UK so no issues with the good Friday agreement. Only the SNP will feel hard done by that Northern Ireland get a nice power and they are irrelevant in this vote/debate as the UK government could announce the Earth is round and they’d disagree
* BoJo is still adamant publicly we’re leaving on the 31st - he doesn’t back losers - everything to date is part of his plan.

16/1 leave with a deal on Ladbrokes.......

after the deal is struck:
* general election
* BoJo destroys all opposition parties for the surrender bill, the court case and incorrect judges verdict (which will be incorrect if he gets a deal) and for not backing Britain
* BoJo wins in a landslide

Far to often do people dismiss this man as a bumbling Buffon - he is anything but and all opponents have taken the bait.

Disagree, it's an oblate spheroid. :wink::greengrin

[JeMeSouviens]

It’s a nice little trap set by the EU and Ireland. Will mean NI will constantly be tied closer to Ireland than the UK. And because it’s time limited the UK should be ok with it. Except they won’t be.


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Chances of the nationalist side of NI agreeing to leave the EU's (and thus Ireland's) regulatory orbit? Absolutely stone cold nil. It's as much of a compromise as the UK proposal, ie. almost not at all

[lapsedhibee]

It’s a nice little trap set by the EU and Ireland. Will mean NI will constantly be tied closer to Ireland than the UK.
Things are not as simple as that though. Remember that Johnson is going to put physical infrastructure in the Irish Sea to permanently link Scotland and Northern Ireland.

[JeMeSouviens]

Don't want to get in to a big debate about it,as I think we're too far gone to actually reach a positive outcome at this stage, but I think a second referendum is the best way to resolve.

Vote in order of preference on no deal, specific deal, remain. If no overall majority then lowest tally is eliminated with their second preference deciding the outcome. Will there be outcry if remain wins, absolutely. However it would also show that leave at all costs isn't what the country wants. Conversely, if a version of leave wins then it is clear - no objections based on differing views on how we leave or any claims of protest votes etc., just a clear mandate to deliver it.

The problem with another referendum is that it is vague. There are multiple policies at play so it doesn't provide a clear mandate. Who does a Tory leaning remain voter opt for for example?

I'm not in favour of preference voting. I think it would be clearer to have 2 votes (like the French presidential elections).

Week 1 - choose a Leave option. An actually agreed deal vs No deal. Key here is both options must be achievable (however catastrophic) with no wishful thinking.
Week 2 - chosen Leave option vs Remain.

[JeMeSouviens]

MPs to sit on Saturday Oct 19th where I think Johnson will be trying to get No Deal approved.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49984367

Rebel alliance needs to get its act together fast.

[Ozyhibby]

Chances of the nationalist side of NI agreeing to leave the EU's (and thus Ireland's) regulatory orbit? Absolutely stone cold nil. It's as much of a compromise as the UK proposal, ie. almost not at all

But it does leave the decision entirely to the people of NI so from the EU point of view they are offering a time limited back stop which is what the brexiteers say they wanted. And who could be against the people of NI having control over their own futures?


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[southsider]

But it does leave the decision entirely to the people of NI so from the EU point of view they are offering a time limited back stop which is what the brexiteers say they wanted. And who could be against the people of NI having control over their own futures?


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Well they stopped the people of Scotland deciding on our fate.

[JeMeSouviens]

But it does leave the decision entirely to the people of NI so from the EU point of view they are offering a time limited back stop which is what the brexiteers say they wanted. And who could be against the people of NI having control over their own futures?


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Yes, it's good politics. Unfortunately the DUP are not going to be swayed by good politics, the toys will be out the pram regardless.

[southsider]

Things are not as simple as that though. Remember that Johnson is going to put physical infrastructure in the Irish Sea to permanently link Scotland and Northern Ireland.

His bridge between NI and Scotland would need the greatest feat of engineering ever known. Why not put a ladder to the moon while ur at it.

[JeMeSouviens]

The Court of Session delays ruling on the latest Brexit case (enforcement of the Benn act) until Oct 21 to see what Johnson & co do in the meantime.

[JeMeSouviens]

His bridge between NI and Scotland would need the greatest feat of engineering ever known. Why not put a ladder to the moon while ur at it.

It would need giant rungs to let the flying pigs through.

[Peevemor]

The Court of Session delays ruling on the latest Brexit case (enforcement of the Benn act) until Oct 21 to see what Johnson & co do in the meantime.

That's Bojo's card marked.

[Moulin Yarns]

The Court of Session delays ruling on the latest Brexit case (enforcement of the Benn act) until Oct 21 to see what Johnson & co do in the meantime.

BREAKING Lord Carloway rules the court will delay a final ruling on @DaleVince #BennAct case - resumes case after 19 October #courtofsession


https://twitter.com/severincarrell/status/1181873716994678785?s=19

[Speedy]

I'm not in favour of preference voting. I think it would be clearer to have 2 votes (like the French presidential elections).

Week 1 - choose a Leave option. An actually agreed deal vs No deal. Key here is both options must be achievable (however catastrophic) with no wishful thinking.
Week 2 - chosen Leave option vs Remain.

I'd go with that.

[Colr]

It’s against the law. It’s not about votes. It’s about whether he can avoid being charged.


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When has a PM ever been charged in this country. It just wouldn’t happen

[danhibees1875]

I'm not in favour of preference voting. I think it would be clearer to have 2 votes (like the French presidential elections).

Week 1 - choose a Leave option. An actually agreed deal vs No deal. Key here is both options must be achievable (however catastrophic) with no wishful thinking.
Week 2 - chosen Leave option vs Remain.

Similar, but I think a 2-part vote done in one go would be easier to manage.

Part 1 - Remain or Leave

Part 2 - If it's leave, deal or no deal.

[southsider]

Why not put this : Q. Brexit is going to cost upwards of £100 Billion. Do u still want to leave the EU ?

[ballengeich]

i see where you are with the 2nd referendum but I see little point in holding one if the 1st result isn’t respected. Any 2nd referendum would be a ‘should we rejoin the EU?’ Question. Agree with brexit or not, serious questions would arise about our democracy if 17 million people instruct the government to do something and they don’t (Tory and labour know this so won’t seriously push for it as their parties will be dead in the sea).


There are a number of possible future relationships with the EU if the UK leaves. At the time of the referendum it was not spelled out which of these would be sought. To "respect the result of the referendum" you should go back to the electorate to find out whether what is available is what they thought they would get, and that vote has to include the option of remaining. That should always have been the policy.

The real world possibilities are now no-deal, May's deal (though that might change next week) and remain. Recent opinion polls generally now indicate a majority wanting to remain. How would it be democratic to make such a massive change to the nation's future against the will of the majority?

It would be like going to a builder for a quote for work on your house and telling him that you're going to go ahead regardless of the price or quality of what he's going to do.

[southsider]

There are a number of possible future relationships with the EU if the UK leaves. At the time of the referendum it was not spelled out which of these would be sought. To "respect the result of the referendum" you should go back to the electorate to find out whether what is available is what they thought they would get, and that vote has to include the option of remaining. That should always have been the policy.

The real world possibilities are now no-deal, May's deal (though that might change next week) and remain. Recent opinion polls generally now indicate a majority wanting to remain. How would it be democratic to make such a massive change to the nation's future against the will of the majority?

It would be like going to a builder for a quote for work on your house and telling him that you're going to go ahead regardless of the price or quality of what he's going to do.
Or him asking What you want done mate ? I don’t know Just get it done

[lapsedhibee]

His bridge between NI and Scotland would need the greatest feat of engineering ever known.

Gloomster! :grr::panic:

[stokesmessiah]

Why not put this : Q. Brexit is going to cost upwards of £100 Billion. Do u still want to leave the EU ?

Because a lot of people don't care how much it will cost or the impact it will have. They just want the foreigners out and the opportunity to "rule the waves" again.

[cabbageandribs1875]

https://twitter.com/rogerbarjb/status/1181621260842868743?s=19&fbclid=IwAR0xrkjrWQbodauJIxIJOtn9g8syaEt_4E7oxmPyv KrLW-7bhWohS5GikJc


22605


awk stop the teasing but i do support the idea of english independence tho i'm not sure how on gods great earth will we survive :(

[Hibbyradge]

I think I may have solved Johnson's dilemma over the extension letter!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-49996166

[Future17]

I think I may have solved Trump's dilemma over the extension letter!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-49996166

Don't bring him into this! :greengrin

[Hibbyradge]

Don't bring him into this! :greengrin

Bollocks. I meant that whankpiece Johnson, obviously.

Amended.

[Colr]

Bollocks. I meant that whankpiece Johnson, obviously.

Amended.

Britain Trump, as we call him !!

So you weren’t entirely wrong!!

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/video/2019/jul/23/they-call-him-britains-trump-trump-on-boris-johnson-video

[Ozyhibby]

Britain Trump, as we call him !!

So you weren’t entirely wrong!!

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/video/2019/jul/23/they-call-him-britains-trump-trump-on-boris-johnson-video

I find the Johnson Trump comparisons quite lazy. They are not much alike apart from the blond hair.


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[wpj]

I find the Johnson Trump comparisons quite lazy. They are not much alike apart from the blond hair.


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And they are both self serving right wing narcissist to$$ers.

[Hibbyradge]

I find the Johnson Trump comparisons quite lazy. They are not much alike apart from the blond hair.


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I find the use of the word "lazy" to describe opinions as clichéd and glib. :wink:

[southsider]

I find the Johnson Trump comparisons quite lazy. They are not much alike apart from the blond hair.


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Aye, but they are both balloons who wid stick their dick in a tear in a horse hair couch.

[JeMeSouviens]

Philip Hammond comes clean about "Buccaneering Britain".


We all know these trade deals are of very limited potential value and likely to be very hard to negotiate without serious domestic economic and political consequences

If only he'd been in a position to warn us before. :rolleyes:

[JeMeSouviens]

From the Guardian:


A no-deal Brexit would put Nissan’s entire European business model in jeopardy, the car manufacturer has said in its strongest warning yet over the UK’s departure from the EU.

Gianluca de Ficchy, the chairman of Nissan Europe, said the imposition of a 10% tariff on exports under World Trade Organisation (WTO) terms would threaten the future of its large Sunderland plant.

“If we are in a situation in which tomorrow we have to apply 10% export duties to 70% of our sales, the entire business model for Nissan Europe will be in jeopardy,”

Ach well, it's only 30 thousand jobs. The unemployed just need to believe a bit harder anyway. :rolleyes:

[Bristolhibby]

From the Guardian:



Ach well, it's only 30 thousand jobs. The unemployed just need to believe a bit harder anyway. :rolleyes:

Wish they had been as vocal in 2016.

Could have done with some hard warnings to areas like Sunderland and Swindon (Honda).

J

[Ozyhibby]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191010/603a438701a1dd2b395d132001dde319.jpg


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[lapsedhibee]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191010/603a438701a1dd2b395d132001dde319.jpg


Shirley this is just more pretending - everyone trying to make sure they're not the one who gets the blame for finally pulling the plug?

[Smartie]

I've not heard any of the detail on this yet, but beady Caledonian eyes will be trained on the possibility of any deal that gives Northern Ireland a significant trading advantage over Scotland.

[Ozyhibby]

I've not heard any of the detail on this yet, but beady Caledonian eyes will be trained on the possibility of any deal that gives Northern Ireland a significant trading advantage over Scotland.

And also any deal that would make independence harder. Anything that involves a border between iScotland and England does that.


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[Colr]

And also any deal that would make independence harder. Anything that involves a border between iScotland and England does that.


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Don’t see a problem with a border between England and Scotland if there is no border between Scotland and Europe.

[Smartie]

Don’t see a problem with a border between England and Scotland if there is no border between Scotland and Europe.

A lot of people would agree with you, the problem is that a few too many would probably disagree.

[Fife-Hibee]

Scotland has a choice. Either a border with England (who will trade with what?). Or a border with Ireland, Denmark, Holland, Belgium, France, Spain, Portugal.... etc

It's a real headache right enough.

[CloudSquall]

Personally wouldn't have any issue with a border with England, with modern technology and work arounds I don't think it would need to be some sort of return of the iron curtain.

I accept that's probably not the majority view, but then again I assume the biggest objections would be from those beside the border who for the most part are huge no voting Tories so I don't think it would be making too much of a dent in the Yes vote.

[Ozyhibby]

Scotland has a choice. Either a border with England (who will trade with what?). Or a border with Ireland, Denmark, Holland, Belgium, France, Spain, Portugal.... etc

It's a real headache right enough.

It is. Like the brexiteers, you are ignoring geography. England is our nearest neighbours and it’s very important that we can trade freely with them. A Scottish business that wants to expand is going to look at Newcastle before it thinks of Portugal.


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