Brexit - what will happen next

[Callum_62]

Barclay saying this means PMs deal is best way forward

How you figure that one?


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[Bristolhibby]

Whittle down the options that got the least support and go again Monday. It was always going to happen this way.

There will now be a desperate last ditch attempt to get MV3 up and through.

Should have had that process agreed before the vote. Let the cants be at it all night.

Bottom one leaves the party and then onto 7, then 6, then 5 and so on till we have a winner.

J

[Ozyhibby]

Whittle down the options that got the least support and go again Monday. It was always going to happen this way.

There will now be a desperate last ditch attempt to get MV3 up and through.

Only three deserve another run, the three that got over 200 votes. That’s Labours, Clark’s and Beckets.
Only Clark’s and Beckets has a chance on Monday.


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[Smartie]

Barclay saying this means PMs deal is best way forward

How you figure that one?


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I've watched the BBC channel for the past half hour and it has been a procession of fuds queuing up to claim the various defeats as some sort of a victory for whatever they believe in.

Deluded cretins the whole lot of them. Well, apart from the ones that I happen to agree with that is.

[jonty]

Every time I see Oliver Letwin, i cant help but think "Oompa Loompa"

there were some good decent, honest speeches from some MPs the other night, once the main rabble had left the building. It almost restored my faith in politicians.
then we have todays self-serving arsholes and i remember when i'd like to get rid of the lot.

[stoneyburn hibs]

As time goes by Brexit is getting softer ,that's for sure

[Ozyhibby]

Any of the options, including May’s, that is willing to tack on a confirmatory vote would pass no problem.
If someone is willing to propose that on Monday they are looking at a winner.


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[Pretty Boy]

Surely we are approaching general election territory?

There's little to no consensus in parliament and little cohesion within the main parties. Put it back to the electorate and force the main parties to seek a mandate for their plan for moving forward.

[SHODAN]

Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaarrrrrghhhhh!!!

[jonty]

If we hit a GE, aren't we going to get the same old crap (80% of the electorate voted for parties that campaigned on Brexit blah blah), just a longer delay.

One things for sure - theres too much gamesmanship and one-up manship going on with westminster. Its just a bloody game to them.

[James310]

While it looks a shambles is it not democracy at it's finest? It's playing out right in front of us. On to Monday and we narrow down the options.

[matty_f]

While it looks a shambles is it not democracy at it's finest? It's playing out right in front of us. On to Monday and we narrow down the options.

No, it's a few Oxbridge shop fronts playing games while the rest of us blindly hope that somehow we come out the other side intact to some degree.

Three votes on May's deal = democratic, second referendum = understood.
Politicians allowed to change their votes at will = democratic, public getting the chance to change its mind = undemocratic.

I have nothing but contempt for these pricks. They're not arsed about democracy.

[James310]

No, it's a few Oxbridge shop fronts playing games while the rest of us blindly hope that somehow we come out the other side intact to some degree.

Three votes on May's deal = democratic, second referendum = understood.
Politicians allowed to change their votes at will = democratic, public getting the chance to change its mind = undemocratic.

I have nothing but contempt for these pricks. They're not arsed about democracy.

But if the process ends up with another referendum or a GE which seems to have increased after tonight?

[BroxburnHibee]

Surely we are approaching general election territory?

There's little to no consensus in parliament and little cohesion within the main parties. Put it back to the electorate and force the main parties to seek a mandate for their plan for moving forward.

Think 2nd referendum is more likely.

But the choices would be her deal or Customs Union with a long delay

[BroxburnHibee]

All leave voting MP's are dodging interviews tonight.

Something afoot?

[SHODAN]

No, it's a few Oxbridge shop fronts playing games while the rest of us blindly hope that somehow we come out the other side intact to some degree.

Three votes on May's deal = democratic, second referendum = understood.
Politicians allowed to change their votes at will = democratic, public getting the chance to change its mind = undemocratic.

I have nothing but contempt for these pricks. They're not arsed about democracy.

But that Rees-Mogg burn about that other guy being from a different private school to him was funny right? Proper British humour, LOLZ

[JeMeSouviens]

If we hit a GE, aren't we going to get the same old crap (80% of the electorate voted for parties that campaigned on Brexit blah blah), just a longer delay.

One things for sure - theres too much gamesmanship and one-up manship going on with westminster. Its just a bloody game to them.

Labour have made a big deal about being member led. They’ll have a hard job resisting the pressure from their membership to at least include a confirmation ref if they stick with Brexit.

[JeMeSouviens]

No, it's a few Oxbridge shop fronts playing games while the rest of us blindly hope that somehow we come out the other side intact to some degree.

Three votes on May's deal = democratic, second referendum = understood.
Politicians allowed to change their votes at will = democratic, public getting the chance to change its mind = undemocratic.

I have nothing but contempt for these pricks. They're not arsed about democracy.

To be fair, there are lots of principled and good hearted MPs. Lots of contemptible pricks too right enough.

[JeMeSouviens]

But that Rees-Mogg burn about that other guy being from a different private school to him was funny right? Proper British humour, LOLZ

Etonian bantz.

[Smartie]

While it looks a shambles is it not democracy at it's finest? It's playing out right in front of us. On to Monday and we narrow down the options.

It's an unpopular opinion but I sort of agree.

There is a lot of howling about "undemocratic" acts going on.

Democracy needs to be a fairly loose term and if you consider it in that way, this IS democracy at it's finest. Our elected members are slowly inching their way towards some sort of compromise.

I don't think it would be an affront to democracy to hold another referendum now we have more information. Parties are elected on all sorts of manifestos promising all sorts of things. It cannot always all be honoured, that doesn't make it undemocratic.

In today's "want it, want it now" culture it is easy to view proceedings as a shambles. But maybe meandering slowly towards compromise is democracy at its finest?

[Ozyhibby]

Tories has a three line whip on the vote to officially extend brexit for a few weeks. Less than half of Tory mp’s votes for it including cabinet ministers and the whips themselves.
GE can’t be far away.


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[The Harp Awakes]

So what now?

Here's what now. Independence. The only way out of this mess for Scotland. Impressive speech. Even if you don't agree with the sentiment:

https://mobile.twitter.com/rosscolquhoun/status/1110842549051293696?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5 Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1110842549051293696&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thenational.scot%2Fnews% 2F17530456.watch-snp-mep-tells-eu-to-leave-a-light-on-for-scotland-to-find-our-way-home%2F

[heretoday]

Here's what now. Independence. The only way out of this mess for Scotland. Impressive speech. Even if you don't agree with the sentiment:

https://mobile.twitter.com/rosscolquhoun/status/1110842549051293696?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5 Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1110842549051293696&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thenational.scot%2Fnews% 2F17530456.watch-snp-mep-tells-eu-to-leave-a-light-on-for-scotland-to-find-our-way-home%2F

If you think this is a mess just imagine the mess independence would bring.

Oh boy!

[Bristolhibby]

If you think this is a mess just imagine the mess independence would bring.

Oh boy!

We’d be in the EU for a start.

J

[xyz23jc]

If you think this is a mess just imagine the mess independence would bring.

Oh boy!

Aye, Eton Mess......I'm in! :greengrin

[Colr]

If you think this is a mess just imagine the mess independence would bring.

Oh boy!

United Ireland would deal with the backstop as well!

[lapsedhibee]

No, it's a few Oxbridge shop fronts playing games while the rest of us blindly hope that somehow we come out the other side intact to some degree.

Three votes on May's deal = democratic, second referendum = understood.
Politicians allowed to change their votes at will = democratic, public getting the chance to change its mind = undemocratic.

I have nothing but contempt for these pricks. They're not arsed about democracy.

There's many pricks for sure, but I've also heard (on Parliament TV) some absolutely outstanding speaking from all sides recently. Justine Greening, Margaret Beckett, Tommy Sheppard - if their morals in any slight way match their mastery of the language, I'd be delighted to have any of these people representing me.

Perhaps if the two main party leaders weren't so dim the place would function better.

[Ozyhibby]

If you think this is a mess just imagine the mess independence would bring.

Oh boy!

So long as the border in Ireland stays open I see no problems with independence. It’s a very different union to be leaving. It’s more just a case of gradually increasing the competencies of the Scottish Parliament.
The key is open borders though. Whatever happens, the UK needs to keep open borders with the EU. Otherwise there is no chance people will vote for independence.


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[DaveF]

United Ireland would deal with the backstop as well!

Yep, just move Arlene Foster and her cronies to a housing estate in Doncaster (previously set aside for those pesky immigrants) and unite Ireland. Job done.

[lapsedhibee]

Yep, just move Arlene Foster and her cronies to a housing estate in Doncaster (previously set aside for those pesky immigrants) and unite Ireland. Job done.

Would there be enough room for Gibraltar and the Falklands too? :dunno: Just in case Boris gets to be PM and fancies a war.

[Ozyhibby]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190328/6bbf86bde37db79447ec0c3eb2343783.jpg
Handy graph to show who voted where.



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[heretoday]

We’d be in the EU for a start.

J

Simple really?

That's that sorted then.

[McSwanky]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190328/6bbf86bde37db79447ec0c3eb2343783.jpg
Handy graph to show who voted where.



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Interesting to note that Margaret Beckett's option failed by 27 votes. The number of Labour MPs that voted against it? 27.

[Moulin Yarns]

Interesting to note that Margaret Beckett's option failed by 27 votes. The number of Labour MPs that voted against it? 27.

And if the SNP had not abstained on the Customs Union, which they say they want, it would have been a win. Twats!!

[danhibees1875]

And if the SNP had not abstained on the Customs Union, which they say they want, it would have been a win. Twats!!

I'd considered that too, but then would it not just be the case that Brexit with a customs union became the direction of travel when the SNP will be holding out for no Brexit. :dunno:

[lapsedhibee]

The Inflatable Idiot comes up with an excellent idea for moving the debate forward:

"I wouldn't vote for it if they put a shotgun in my mouth," Conservative Mark Francois says he will still vote against the #Brexit withdrawal agreement

[James310]

And if the SNP had not abstained on the Customs Union, which they say they want, it would have been a win. Twats!!

And would immediately have halted a hard Brexit.

[CropleyWasGod]

And would immediately have halted a hard Brexit.

Would it?

I'm not sure the Government are going to adhere to the results of these votes.

[James310]

Would it?

I'm not sure the Government are going to adhere to the results of these votes.

As the only option that would have had a majority it would have had a much higher chance of success.

Although I think the SNP never voted for it as there is no freedom of movement.

[Ozyhibby]

And if the SNP had not abstained on the Customs Union, which they say they want, it would have been a win. Twats!!

Not really. SNP really need CU and SM to make path to Indy easier. If common market 2.0 can add in a confirmatory vote then the snp might go for that. In fact any option that has another vote, the snp are likely to go for.


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[JeMeSouviens]

I'd considered that too, but then would it not just be the case that Brexit with a customs union became the direction of travel when the SNP will be holding out for no Brexit. :dunno:

The idea of indicative votes was to get a feel for what options had strong support in the Commons and what could be lived with. Nick Boles said he would personally be voting for his favoured option and abstaining on some he could live with. Then after round 1, whittling and horse trading could commence.

People seem to be getting way over excited by the result of round 1. The "key takeaways"* were there is less support for a soft SM-centred Brexit than people had assumed and more support for Ref2.


* a phrase I simultaneously can't stand but can't be bothered to think of an alternative for.

[HiBremian]

The idea of indicative votes was to get a feel for what options had strong support in the Commons and what could be lived with. Nick Boles said he would personally be voting for his favoured option and abstaining on some he could live with. Then after round 1, whittling and horse trading could commence.

People seem to be getting way over excited by the result of round 1. The "key takeaways"* were there is less support for a soft SM-centred Brexit than people had assumed and more support for Ref2.


* a phrase I simultaneously can't stand but can't be bothered to think of an alternative for.

I agree. The question for Monday is how many MPs will be willing to cross their red lines and compromise. Then again, TM needs to cross a few of hers to get an agreement into law. Everything so far suggests that she sees everything through the prism of bringing her loony right round to her deal. The idea that she might just look towards the centre, and take on board Ken Clarke's Customs Union proposal to get the WA through, seems to be an idea too far.

[JeMeSouviens]

Excellent article documenting the negotiations and how the EU (and Ireland) outmanoeuvred the UK at every turn:

https://www.politico.eu/article/how-uk-lost-brexit-eu-negotiation/

[JeMeSouviens]

I agree. The question for Monday is how many MPs will be willing to cross their red lines and compromise. Then again, TM needs to cross a few of hers to get an agreement into law. Everything so far suggests that she sees everything through the prism of bringing her loony right round to her deal. The idea that she might just look towards the centre, and take on board Ken Clarke's Customs Union proposal to get the WA through, seems to be an idea too far.

Her deal + CU and a PV to ratify would be a good compromise. I suspect there's more chance May would disembowel herself with the Commons mace than go for that though.

[HiBremian]

Her deal + CU and a PV to ratify would be a good compromise. I suspect there's more chance May would disembowel herself with the Commons mace than go for that though.

"TM fails to fall on her sword, but the Mace does the job".

[Tornadoes70]

We’d be in the EU for a start.

J

What if in that event would happen if the EU voted against 'Scotland's wishes'?

Would the Snp throw the toys out of the pram again or would Scotland become a mere irrelevancy consigned to being main powers France and Germany's little cuckold?

It seems to me the many on here advocating separation/independence are only interested in breaking up the UK with little care or concern for their post UK breakaway Scotland.

Mon Labour!!!

[grunt]

It seems to me the many on here advocating separation/independence are only interested in breaking up the UK with little care or concern for their post UK breakaway Scotland.I think that says more about you and your reading of the posts on here than it does about the people advocating independence.

[JeMeSouviens]

"TM fails to fall on her sword, but the Mace does the job".

I think it was someone on Newsnight last night who said, "Theresa May tried to fall on her sword, but missed". :greengrin

[JeMeSouviens]

I think that says more about you and your reading of the posts on here than it does about the people advocating independence.

Jeremy Corbyn put out a tweet today rehashing the tired old SNP-brought-you-Thatcher betrayal story from 1979. Quite apart from the fact that it's a highly questionable reading of what happened, it's 40 years ago FFS! And they wonder why Richard the Leopard isn't reclaiming ScotLab's "rightful place".

But, you know, "Mon Scottish Labour". :rolleyes:

[JeMeSouviens]

Dominic Raab comes out of hiding to proclaim he wouldn't back the PM's deal. Obv reckons it's dead anyway and banking the political capital with the Tory base of holding firm while Boris caves. Deeply slimy character. :sick:

[Tornadoes70]

I think that says more about you and your reading of the posts on here than it does about the people advocating independence.

Maybe if 'the people advocating independence' spent more time posting how they see Scotland post UK breakaway instead of trolling or insulting those who are for now pro UK I'd glean a more rounded opinion

Mon Labour!!!

[BroxburnHibee]

I cant see her agreeing to any 2nd ref with remain as an option.

She needs an option that gives her an out.

[Moulin Yarns]

What if in that event would happen if the EU voted against 'Scotland's wishes'?

Would the Snp throw the toys out of the pram again or would Scotland become a mere irrelevancy consigned to being main powers France and Germany's little cuckold?

It seems to me the many on here advocating separation/independence are only interested in breaking up the UK with little care or concern for their post UK breakaway Scotland.

Mon Labour!!!

Your lack of understanding of how the EU works is only surmounted by your blinkered love of Corbyn and blinkered hatred of the snp.

[Tornadoes70]

Your lack of understanding of how the EU works is only surmounted by your blinkered love of Corbyn and blinkered hatred of the snp.

Were you previously Golden Fleece?

See above post asking for posters to open up more regarding opinions for post independence Scotland and for less insults and trolling.

Mon Labour!!!

[Moulin Yarns]

Were you previously Golden Fleece?

See above post asking for posters to open up more regarding opinions for post independence Scotland and for less insults and trolling.

Mon Labour!!!

How is Labour doing in the opinion polls?

[McSwanky]

Jeremy Corbyn put out a tweet today rehashing the tired old SNP-brought-you-Thatcher betrayal story from 1979. Quite apart from the fact that it's a highly questionable reading of what happened, it's 40 years ago FFS! And they wonder why Richard the Leopard isn't reclaiming ScotLab's "rightful place".

But, you know, "Mon Scottish Labour". :rolleyes:

This seems like the ideal time to bring up a divisive issue from 40 years ago, Jeremy. Well played. :rolleyes:

[Ozyhibby]

MV 3 tomorrow. She has to really but I don’t see it passing.


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[Tornadoes70]

How is Labour doing in the opinion polls?

Growing our popularity across the board as brexit continues to wreak damage upon the tories thanks for asking mate.

Mon Labour!!!

[Ozyhibby]

Growing our popularity across the board as brexit continues to wreak damage upon the tories thanks for asking mate.

Mon Labour!!!

Still behind the worst most dysfunctional Tory govt in history. [emoji23]


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[Moulin Yarns]

Were you previously Golden Fleece?

See above post asking for posters to open up more regarding opinions for post independence Scotland and for less insults and trolling.

Mon Labour!!!

As a Labour member/supporter you should be well aware of the cross party/non party organisation called The Common Weal which has done huge amounts of work to answer all of the questions that weren't answered in Indyref1. You should read its papers on Democracy, Economics, National Infrastructure, Tax and Investment and Quality of Life. Once you have done so you will perhaps realise that tugging the forelock to Westminster is not the future.

Yesterday's indicative votes shows what is possible when 2 party politics is chucked out the window, had there been less whipping of the votes I am fairly sure that one or two of the votes would have been voted for.

[JeMeSouviens]

Still behind the worst most dysfunctional Tory govt in history. [emoji23]


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Corbyn has the lowest approval rating of a Labour leader since Michael Foot in '83 (and it's still dropping).
May has the lowest approval rating of a Tory leader since John Major at the height of Tory sleaze, cash for questions and all that.

It's quite something.

[Moulin Yarns]

Growing our popularity across the board as brexit continues to wreak damage upon the tories thanks for asking mate.

Mon Labour!!!

Except that is not true, and your blinkered to the total failure of Labour to capitalise on the clusterbourach that is Brexit and the Tory party.

[Moulin Yarns]

MV 3 tomorrow. She has to really but I don’t see it passing.


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Did I just hear there is to be a vote on whether to allow MV3?

[grunt]

Maybe if 'the people advocating independence' spent more time posting how they see Scotland post UK breakaway instead of trolling or insulting those who are for now pro UK I'd glean a more rounded opinion.I doubt it.

Try this. https://www2.gov.scot/resource/0043/00439021.pdf

[JeMeSouviens]

Did I just hear there is to be a vote on whether to allow MV3?

The chat is they are going to try and have a vote on *just* the WA, separate from the PD. As usual, confusion reigns, but I can't see it helping to get Labour rebs onside. It would give the next Tory ******* PM a completely blank cheque, if they could find a way out of the backstop that is.

It's certainly not going to help with the DUP or the core ERG'ers.

[Ozyhibby]

Did I just hear there is to be a vote on whether to allow MV3?

Apparently it is only going to be the withdrawal agreement (the bit everyone hates) and not the political declaration (the bit that makes the WA easier to swallow) that is to be voted on tomorrow.
I must be missing some crazy game theory here.


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[JeMeSouviens]

Corbyn has already ruled out Lab front bench support or abstention for a separated WA, because of "blindfold Brexit". In this case he is completely correct.

[Bristolhibby]

Simple really?

That's that sorted then.

Like I said, it’s a start

[JeMeSouviens]

Apparently it is only going to be the withdrawal agreement (the bit everyone hates) and not the political declaration (the bit that makes the WA easier to swallow) that is to be voted on tomorrow.
I must be missing some crazy game theory here.


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As best as I can understand it, the theory is (apparently)

- that this wouldn't be MV3 as the legislation that created the "Meaningful Vote" requires it to be on both the WA+PD
- but the EU only requires agreement to the WA to unlock extension to May 22
- so they could pass the WA and then attempt to sort a "better" PD and have a real MV3 before May 22

In other words, it's yet another desperate can kick. :rolleyes:

[Bristolhibby]

Maybe if 'the people advocating independence' spent more time posting how they see Scotland post UK breakaway instead of trolling or insulting those who are for now pro UK I'd glean a more rounded opinion

Mon Labour!!!

Remember this?

https://www2.gov.scot/resource/0043/00439021.pdf

Reckon it was a decent document.

Don’t remember seeing anything like this pre Brexit from Conservatives or Labour about Brexit.

Shame “Plan B” was never brought up in as much volume in 2016.

J

[James310]

Remember this?

https://www2.gov.scot/resource/0043/00439021.pdf

Reckon it was a decent document.

Don’t remember seeing anything like this pre Brexit from Conservatives or Labour about Brexit.

Shame “Plan B” was never brought up in as much volume in 2016.

J

The famous White Paper. It was at least an attempted stab at what the future would look like but was largely based on 'Fanstay Economics' and has been ripped apart a number of times.

Full of promises of things like higher pensions for all, even delaying the rising age when people can get their pension. All this in a country where the population is ageing quicker than the rest of the UK. No mention of how its all paid for.

The oil price prediction? Only £30BN down.

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/gap-between-snp-s-2014-plans-and-north-sea-revenue-reaches-30bn-1-4800803

And was this the paper that predicted it would all be delivered in 18 months at a cost of around £150M? Well considering the Scottish Government has spent £178M to implement an IT system for Farmers it makes you question how the White Paper came up with this figure. (It's costing Edinburgh £220M to run a tram line from York Place to Newhaven, but it's cheaper to set up a new infrastructure for an Independent Scotland?)

Good attempt, but must do better.

[Moulin Yarns]

The famous White Paper. It was at least an attempted stab at what the future would look like but was largely based on 'Fanstay Economics' and has been ripped apart a number of times.

Full of promises of things like higher pensions for all, even delaying the rising age when people can get their pension. All this in a country where the population is ageing quicker than the rest of the UK. No mention of how its all paid for.

The oil price prediction? Only £30BN down.

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/gap-between-snp-s-2014-plans-and-north-sea-revenue-reaches-30bn-1-4800803

And was this the paper that predicted it would all be delivered in 18 months at a cost of around £150M? Well considering the Scottish Government has spent £178M to implement an IT system for Farmers it makes you question how the White Paper came up with this figure. (It's costing Edinburgh £220M to run a tram line from York Place to Newhaven, but it's cheaper to set up a new infrastructure for an Independent Scotland?)

Good attempt, but must do better.

That was the SNP vision, as I said to Ignsh/Turnbull70 above, The Common Weal is a non party organisation that has answered lots of the critisism in the white paper.


http://allofusfirst.org/index.html

[James310]

That was the SNP vision, as I said to Ignsh/Turnbull70 above, The Common Weal is a non party organisation that has answered lots of the critisism in the white paper.


http://allofusfirst.org/index.html

Of course it would, it's pro Indy.

'It contributed to the debates that were occurring as part of the Scottish independence referendum, aligned to the Yes campaign'

It was also shown recently they got a number of figures wrong in analysis the they did on the Scottish Economy. The author decided to have a 'rest' after it was exposed.

[Jack]

Maybe if 'the people advocating independence' spent more time posting how they see Scotland post UK breakaway instead of trolling or insulting those who are for now pro UK I'd glean a more rounded opinion

Mon Labour!!!

If they were to post about what an independent Scotland would look like they'd probably do it on an appropriate thread rather than fart and run as you continue to do.

[HiBremian]

Maybe if 'the people advocating independence' spent more time posting how they see Scotland post UK breakaway instead of trolling or insulting those who are for now pro UK I'd glean a more rounded opinion

Mon Labour!!!

Man, you’ve got a cheek. The number of analyses developed by think tanks, the Scottish government, and other indy organisations are there for debate and refining. Whatever your criticisms, they will form the basis of the direction an independent Scotland initially takes. Then it is up to the electorate to vote in the first indy gvt, which will have its own agenda just like in any other democracy.

Meanwhile, here we are, led by a UK gvt implementing a policy based on a figure scrawled on the side of a red bus.


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[JeMeSouviens]

To all - don't be tempted :wink:

https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Pigeon%20chess


Ours is maybe a "doo with the draughts". :greengrin

Mon Scottish Pigeons!

[HiBremian]

To all - don't be tempted :wink:

https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Pigeon%20chess


Ours is maybe a "doo with the draughts". :greengrin

Mon Scottish Pigeons!

Just heading out. I’ll be sure to give the Bremen pigeons a nod as I pass on my bicycle :-)


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[Moulin Yarns]

Of course it would, it's pro Indy.

'It contributed to the debates that were occurring as part of the Scottish independence referendum, aligned to the Yes campaign'

It was also shown recently they got a number of figures wrong in analysis the they did on the Scottish Economy. The author decided to have a 'rest' after it was exposed.

The SNP disagreed with some figures relating to the 'divorce settlement' with rUK. It then becomes a debate as to who is closer to the correct figures. To suggest they got figures wrong is to believe that the SNP figures are right, and I'm sure you woud agree that they might have their figures not exactly right, they have previous :wink:

[James310]

The SNP disagreed with some figures relating to the 'divorce settlement' with rUK. It then becomes a debate as to who is closer to the correct figures. To suggest they got figures wrong is to believe that the SNP figures are right, and I'm sure you woud agree that they might have their figures not exactly right, they have previous :wink:

I was referring to some recent analysis they did, as far as I know the SNP have not commented on this.

It's a minefield and like most things on the Indy debate you can put whatever slant you want on things.

But I think even the most hardened SNP fans would admit the White Paper was a decent attempt but never really cut the mustard.

[Moulin Yarns]

I was referring to some recent analysis they did, as far as I know the SNP have not commented on this.

It's a minefield and like most things on the Indy debate you can put whatever slant you want on things.

But I think even the most hardened SNP fans would admit the White Paper was a decent attempt but never really cut the mustard.

Do you have a link or reference to the analysis? The most recent I could find was what I mentioned.

[Moulin Yarns]

Wtf!!!!



scottish brexit police unit 'heavily deployed'a team of more than 300 police officers set up to respond to incidents relating to brexit has been "very heavily deployed" since it started last week, police scotland says.
The dedicated unit for brexit-related emergencies has been busy dealing with protests and "increasing febrile" behaviour in the streets, according to police scotland deputy chief constable will kerr.
The reserve force, made up of 300 officers and 12 public support units, started early on 18 march, he tells a meeting of the scottish police authority.
Mr kerr says the reserve force "has already proven to be quite a prescient decision because it's been operationally very heavily deployed and busy over the course of the last week and a half".
He adds: "last friday alone there were three almost flash protests at sites across edinburgh..."

[Ozyhibby]

Wtf!!!!

Police Scotland grabbing as much cash as possible.


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[James310]

Do you have a link or reference to the analysis? The most recent I could find was what I mentioned.

https://twitter.com/staylorish/status/1107558914202177536?s=19

[Callum_62]

Vote on WA only tomorrow - apparently its legal altho appears shifty





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[The Modfather]

https://twitter.com/staylorish/status/1107558914202177536?s=19

Who is Sam Taylor? Is he not just a random guy on Twitter?

[lapsedhibee]

Vote on WA only tomorrow - apparently its legal altho appears shifty


Presumably an attempt to shift blame for an upcoming General Election on to Labour, if they don't support it?

[CropleyWasGod]

Phrase of the day..... "reverse ferret" :greengrin

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47740158

[Hibrandenburg]

Jeremy Corbyn put out a tweet today rehashing the tired old SNP-brought-you-Thatcher betrayal story from 1979. Quite apart from the fact that it's a highly questionable reading of what happened, it's 40 years ago FFS! And they wonder why Richard the Leopard isn't reclaiming ScotLab's "rightful place".

But, you know, "Mon Scottish Labour". :rolleyes:

It still amazes me how those 11 MPs managed to outvote the other 524.

[Moulin Yarns]

Who is Sam Taylor? Is he not just a random guy on Twitter?

I've searched for information on him and he is nowhere to be seen except for twitter. Not a reliable source of credible analysis.

[Smartie]

Phrase of the day..... "reverse ferret" :greengrin

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47740158

There was a spell during the late 90s when my Dad, my brother and myself would try to get on Scottish political discussion TV programmes, and we got on a few.

My Dad always used to get to make an audience contribution and try to insert words we had chosen in advance into his answers.

"Ferret" was one that was used on a number of occasions.

It makes me happy to see this word enter the political mainstream, and the idea of a "reverse ferret" fills me with joy.

[lapsedhibee]

Dominic Raab comes out of hiding to proclaim he wouldn't back the PM's deal. Obv reckons it's dead anyway and banking the political capital with the Tory base of holding firm while Boris caves. Deeply slimy character. :sick:
:agree: Rik Mayall without the talent.

[James310]

I've searched for information on him and he is nowhere to be seen except for twitter. Not a reliable source of credible analysis.

Seems pretty credibile to me, points out the obvious errors. As qualified as the boy from Common Weal, who is obviously a household name?

[Moulin Yarns]

Seems pretty credibile to me, points out the obvious errors. As qualified as the boy from Common Weal, who is obviously a household name?

You mean Dr Craig Dalzell, the laser physicist. Obviously more intelligent than a guy on Twitter, unless you can help with what he is or how he is qualified?

[James310]

You mean Dr Craig Dalzell, the laser physicist. Obviously more intelligent than a guy on Twitter, unless you can help with what he is or how he is qualified?

If he is that clever why make such fundamental errors? It all looked like factual information he had got wrong. Interesting that after the critsisim he decided to take a 'rest'.

It's all debatable, as I say depending on what side of the fence you sit on you will see what you want to see.

[marinello59]

On Question Time Yanis Varoufakis has just described May’s deal as one a country would only sign if they had lost a war. Ouch. :greengrin

[JeMeSouviens]

Cabinet lolz.

https://t.co/67jKr6dKNg

[James310]

Cabinet lolz.

https://t.co/67jKr6dKNg

To be a fly on the wall.

[SHODAN]

My uninformed opinion on how this could go:

May's deal will lose tomorrow. She'll call a GE then resign, giving the Tories time to elect a new leader. The way I see it, it'll either be Boris Johnson (Brexiteer) or Jeremy Hunt (remainer/compromise candidate).

Both will have very different election strategies:

Johnson will either campaign on No Deal (which will automatically pass as no vote is required), or not mention it in the manifesto at all. Popular with a lot of the electorate but will alienate more moderate voters.
Hunt will probably campaign on some undefined softer Brexit deal which will probably pass. I suspect he would win a GE if he did this.


Corbyn has a few options:

Campaign on his established deal, which will get him nowhere.
Campaign on his deal AND putting it to a second referendum, which may well win him the GE. He probably won't get a majority though which will mean he'll have to rely on the SNP (who will extract some sort of indyref2 failsafe out of him).


So basically, summary of what the future will be if these guys get in:

Corbyn majority: will enact sweeping social-democratic reforms (which is good) and possibly a second referendum, but if his terrible Brexit deal gets over the line we'll be shooting ourself in the foot.
Corbyn minority: might not be able to enact quite a few of his policies, but we'll almost definitely get a second referendum (and possibly indyref2).
Hunt: He's a Tory, which is bad, but will want to be seen as the man who delivered Brexit and is not completely inflexible like May so will go for Norway plus or something. We'll be grateful for the stability.
Johnson: We're ****ed.

[hibsbollah]

On Question Time Yanis Varoufakis has just described May’s deal as one a country would only sign if they had lost a war. Ouch. :greengrin

Hes excellent. Always seems to say something unexpected and makes you look at things from a different angle.

[JeMeSouviens]

My uninformed opinion on how this could go:

May's deal will lose tomorrow. She'll call a GE then resign, giving the Tories time to elect a new leader. The way I see it, it'll either be Boris Johnson (Brexiteer) or Jeremy Hunt (remainer/compromise candidate).

Both will have very different election strategies:

Johnson will either campaign on No Deal (which will automatically pass as no vote is required), or not mention it in the manifesto at all. Popular with a lot of the electorate but will alienate more moderate voters.
Hunt will probably campaign on some undefined softer Brexit deal which will probably pass. I suspect he would win a GE if he did this.


Corbyn has a few options:

Campaign on his established deal, which will get him nowhere.
Campaign on his deal AND putting it to a second referendum, which may well win him the GE. He probably won't get a majority though which will mean he'll have to rely on the SNP (who will extract some sort of indyref2 failsafe out of him).


So basically, summary of what the future will be if these guys get in:

Corbyn majority: will enact sweeping social-democratic reforms (which is good) and possibly a second referendum, but if his terrible Brexit deal gets over the line we'll be shooting ourself in the foot.
Corbyn minority: might not be able to enact quite a few of his policies, but we'll almost definitely get a second referendum (and possibly indyref2).
Hunt: He's a Tory, which is bad, but will want to be seen as the man who delivered Brexit and is not completely inflexible like May so will go for Norway plus or something. We'll be grateful for the stability.
Johnson: We're ****ed.


You don’t get to be Tory leader advocating a soft Brexit. The final decision is with their membership. 100k people, average age about 65.

Anyway, May won’t go voluntarily without getting her deal through. They’ll have to oust her which will be v messy as she has a free pass with the Tories since she won the confidence vote in December.

[Hibrandenburg]

My uninformed opinion on how this could go:

May's deal will lose tomorrow. She'll call a GE then resign, giving the Tories time to elect a new leader. The way I see it, it'll either be Boris Johnson (Brexiteer) or Jeremy Hunt (remainer/compromise candidate).

Both will have very different election strategies:

Johnson will either campaign on No Deal (which will automatically pass as no vote is required), or not mention it in the manifesto at all. Popular with a lot of the electorate but will alienate more moderate voters.
Hunt will probably campaign on some undefined softer Brexit deal which will probably pass. I suspect he would win a GE if he did this.


Corbyn has a few options:

Campaign on his established deal, which will get him nowhere.
Campaign on his deal AND putting it to a second referendum, which may well win him the GE. He probably won't get a majority though which will mean he'll have to rely on the SNP (who will extract some sort of indyref2 failsafe out of him).


So basically, summary of what the future will be if these guys get in:

Corbyn majority: will enact sweeping social-democratic reforms (which is good) and possibly a second referendum, but if his terrible Brexit deal gets over the line we'll be shooting ourself in the foot.
Corbyn minority: might not be able to enact quite a few of his policies, but we'll almost definitely get a second referendum (and possibly indyref2).
Hunt: He's a Tory, which is bad, but will want to be seen as the man who delivered Brexit and is not completely inflexible like May so will go for Norway plus or something. We'll be grateful for the stability.
Johnson: We're ****ed.


I'm not sure the EU will play along with some of that.

[JeMeSouviens]

Today’s vote comes down to Tory rebs + DUP vs Lab rebs.

Theresa’s useful idiots, Caroline Flint, Gareth Snell etc have tabled an amendment for the Lab leavers to rally behind giving parliament some say over the PD in future.

But they need to get more than 10 DUP, probably 30 ERG and maybe 7 Tory remainer rebs. Unlikely, so government should lose again.

[ronaldo7]

Hes excellent. Always seems to say something unexpected and makes you look at things from a different angle.

Brexit is an English problem, not a Scottish, or an Irish problem.

Well said, Yanis.

[JeMeSouviens]

I'm not sure the EU will play along with some of that.

Plus Hunt is a total ******** who has switched to advocating No Deal in cabinet. Stability?

[Ozyhibby]

My uninformed opinion on how this could go:

May's deal will lose tomorrow. She'll call a GE then resign, giving the Tories time to elect a new leader. The way I see it, it'll either be Boris Johnson (Brexiteer) or Jeremy Hunt (remainer/compromise candidate).

Both will have very different election strategies:

Johnson will either campaign on No Deal (which will automatically pass as no vote is required), or not mention it in the manifesto at all. Popular with a lot of the electorate but will alienate more moderate voters.
Hunt will probably campaign on some undefined softer Brexit deal which will probably pass. I suspect he would win a GE if he did this.


Corbyn has a few options:

Campaign on his established deal, which will get him nowhere.
Campaign on his deal AND putting it to a second referendum, which may well win him the GE. He probably won't get a majority though which will mean he'll have to rely on the SNP (who will extract some sort of indyref2 failsafe out of him).


So basically, summary of what the future will be if these guys get in:

Corbyn majority: will enact sweeping social-democratic reforms (which is good) and possibly a second referendum, but if his terrible Brexit deal gets over the line we'll be shooting ourself in the foot.
Corbyn minority: might not be able to enact quite a few of his policies, but we'll almost definitely get a second referendum (and possibly indyref2).
Hunt: He's a Tory, which is bad, but will want to be seen as the man who delivered Brexit and is not completely inflexible like May so will go for Norway plus or something. We'll be grateful for the stability.
Johnson: We're ****ed.


Boris Johnson would win the Tory leadership if it was just up to the members, however I don’t think he will make it to the final two as he is not popular among mp’s.


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[lapsedhibee]

Rumpole in full flow just now, accusing Labour of cynicism. :faf:

[Hibrandenburg]

Rumpole in full flow just now, accusing Labour of cynicism. :faf:

He's correct, Labour and the Tories have both been guilty of cynicism. He's also spot on about being left at the mercy of the other 27 EU members if May's deal doesn't get voted through by 11pm tonight, after that the ball is firmly in the EU's court and they're set up for a smash. Maybe this has been the plan all along, "a big boy done it and ran away".

[lapsedhibee]

He's correct, Labour and the Tories have both been guilty of cynicism. He's also spot on about being left at the mercy of the other 27 EU members if May's deal doesn't get voted through by 11pm tonight, after that the ball is firmly in the EU's court and they're set up for a smash. Maybe this has been the plan all along, "a big boy done it and ran away".

The whole motion and debate today is an exercise in cynicism - pretending that it's about claiming our right to determine the length of our extension, when in fact it's to show Labour in a bad light in advance of a General Election.

[JeMeSouviens]

The whole motion and debate today is an exercise in cynicism - pretending that it's about claiming our right to determine the length of our extension, when in fact it's to show Labour in a bad light in advance of a General Election.

Yep, trying to establish "Labour blocked Brexit" in the public consciousness. Surely, Labour will just turn this to "Labour blocked May's deal" which everyone can agree they hate.

[lapsedhibee]

Yep, trying to establish "Labour blocked Brexit" in the public consciousness. Surely, Labour will just turn this to "Labour blocked May's deal" which everyone can agree they hate.

Blackford and Ian Murray now pre-electioneering against each other.

[Hibrandenburg]

Yep, trying to establish "Labour blocked Brexit" in the public consciousness. Surely, Labour will just turn this to "Labour blocked May's deal" which everyone can agree they hate.

Or they'll both come out with the "the EU threw us out" storyline.

[James310]

Vote expected around 2.30pm I read.

[JeMeSouviens]

Deeply worrying signs that some of the idiot ERGers have found a new strategy - back the WA today and maintain that pretence until it's too late to hold Euro elections and then tear it down in future votes. IDS has more or less said this in his speech. Hopefully putative Lab rebs will cotton on before they do something truly monumentally stupid.

[JeMeSouviens]

From Telegraph journo Steven Swinford:


I'm told that in a bid to win over Labour MPs 'cash is going all over the place'

Two Labour MPs said to be looking for £100m+ *each* for regeneration in their constituencies in exchange for support

All contingent on deal going through

:rolleyes:

[CropleyWasGod]

From Telegraph journo Steven Swinford:



:rolleyes:

SNP could be on a winner here.

:greengrin

[Hibbyradge]

Deeply worrying signs that some of the idiot ERGers have found a new strategy - back the WA today and maintain that pretence until it's too late to hold Euro elections and then tear it down in future votes. IDS has more or less said this in his speech. Hopefully putative Lab rebs will cotton on before they do something truly monumentally stupid.

FFS stop it, man.

My anxiety is high enough without you adding to it.

:paranoid:

[ronaldo7]

From Telegraph journo Steven Swinford:



:rolleyes:

Labour MP's selling out their vote for constituency cash.

Never happen, will it 😉

[JeMeSouviens]

Meanwhile, a friendly peaceful Leave protest gathering in London:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D20VeXAWwAEEAoF.jpg

[Callum_62]

Meanwhile, a friendly peaceful Leave protest gathering in London:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D20VeXAWwAEEAoF.jpg

FFS - thats a grown man

Honestly, im so glad i got dual nationality.

Britain makes me cringe on many levels


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[JeMeSouviens]

Dominic Grieve - "It's perfectly obvious that some of my hon friends have the intention to use the withdrawal agreement Act to wreck the passage of any agreement."

[JeMeSouviens]

DUP reaffirm they're voting against. I salute their indefatigability. :wink:

[JeMeSouviens]

Kate Hoey voting against not because Labour are but because the DUP are. ****'s sake. :rolleyes:

[JeMeSouviens]

FFS stop it, man.

My anxiety is high enough without you adding to it.

:paranoid:

A crumb of comfort (for both of us).

Robert Peston - "The way this debate is going, the margin of defeat for @theresa_may could again be very substantial"

[Hibbyradge]

A crumb of comfort (for both of us).

Robert Peston - "The way this debate is going, the margin of defeat for @theresa_may could again be very substantial"

🤞

[ronaldo7]

The comment most used by those supporting the deal today is, "I don't like the deal, but"

It's like turkeys voting for Christmas.

[lapsedhibee]

DUP reaffirm they're voting against. I salute their indefatigability. :wink:

Not only indefatigable, but from what I've seen of the past few months' parly, Nigel Dodds seems the most intelligent and effective speaker of the seven party leaders. :faint:

[JeMeSouviens]

Not only indefatigable, but from what I've seen of the past few months' parly, Nigel Dodds seems the most intelligent and effective speaker of the seven party leaders. :faint:

https://i.ebayimg.com/images/g/ZOcAAOSw-vlVj6Bz/s-l640.jpg

[JeMeSouviens]

A pleasant diversion into wtf-ery:

https://twitter.com/rhodri/status/1111254719777914881

:confused::greengrin

[grunt]

A pleasant diversion into wtf-ery:

https://twitter.com/rhodri/status/1111254719777914881

:confused::greengrinMore along those lines


https://twitter.com/PoliticsJOE_UK/status/1111600435541041152 (https://twitter.com/PoliticsJOE_UK/status/1111600435541041152)

[PeeJay]

Thank Fred the football is back on again this evening - or have they voted against that as well ?? :confused:

[JeMeSouviens]

Raab - the man* who said the deal was worse than staying in - is going to vote for it because it's better than staying in. :confused:


* or as lapsed rightly pointed out, ******* (name of Rik Mayall character filtered out).

[ronaldo7]

Deidre Brock, currently hitting it out the park.

[JeMeSouviens]

Good god, the "Bridgeton True Blues" flute band have just turned up among the Leave protestors. Scotland's shame. :bitchy:

[Callyballybe]

Deidre Brock, currently hitting it out the park.

Good to hear - Soon to be my new MP as well.

[ronaldo7]

Joanna cherry saying Mp's now being racially abused outside parliament.

[ronaldo7]

Good god, the "Bridgeton True Blues" flute band have just turned up among the Leave protestors. Scotland's shame. :bitchy:

There is literally an orange band outside parliament today as part of the UKIP Brexit team.

The grand wizards will be tapping their feet on the tory benches.

[Peevemor]

https://twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/status/1111610088723226624/photo/1

[cabbageandribs1875]

i suspect tessa would like leaving day as the 27th of may...it would then be down in the history books as 'Mays Day'

[JeMeSouviens]

There is literally an orange band outside parliament today as part of the UKIP Brexit team.

At least 2 - the Bridgeton True Blues as I said above, also spotted the "Musselburgh True Defenders". That's even more shameful, they're not even Weegies. :confused:

[McSwanky]

At least 2 - the Bridgeton True Blues as I said above, also spotted the "Musselburgh True Defenders". That's even more shameful, they're not even Weegies. :confused:

Musselburgh you say? Hermit Crab will be along in a moment...

[marinello59]

This could all depend on the actions of a group of ‘rebel’ Labour MPs. It may well be close.

[weecounty hibby]

At least 2 - the Bridgeton True Blues as I said above, also spotted the "Musselburgh True Defenders". That's even more shameful, they're not even Weegies. :confused:

They'll be there to make sure that the papists in Rome, Madrid, Paris, Lisbon etc are routed. They'll be singing about guarding Westminster's walks in 300 years time. I'm ashamed that they are from the same country as me

[JeMeSouviens]

May trying her best to sound inclusive in Commons.

https://i.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/original/000/000/157/itsatrap.jpg

Admiral Ackbar knows :agree:

[JeMeSouviens]

This could all depend on the actions of a group of ‘rebel’ Labour MPs. It may well be close.

Yep, although her resignation has softened Tory Brexiters but hardened Lab opposition so I don't think there are enough Lab rebs.

My prediction - she loses by 25.

[Moulin Yarns]

Yep, although her resignation has softened Tory Brexiters but hardened Lab opposition so I don't think there are enough Lab rebs.

My prediction - she loses by 25.

I was 1 out last time and I am going for 75 this time.*


*Disclaimer, I can't even pick one of the first four in the Grand National and am not a gambler.

[weecounty hibby]

Yep, although her resignation has softened Tory Brexiters but hardened Lab opposition so I don't think there are enough Lab rebs.

My prediction - she loses by 25.

I think that may be quite accurate. Means she will give it another bash again next week though. Unbelievably

[ronaldo7]

I was 1 out last time and I am going for 75 this time.*


*Disclaimer, I can't even pick one of the first four in the Grand National and am not a gambler.

Loss by 40.

[JeMeSouviens]

Rees-Mogg who said he would only cave if the DUP caved, caves. Shameless.

[JeMeSouviens]

Guardian's Dan Sabbagh - "Labour sources in the division lobbies saying they think they have won comfortably"

[ronaldo7]

Adam bienkov reporting that some labour mp's are voting both ways. Abstaining, in other words.

[JeMeSouviens]

Robert Peston reckons defeat for Govt by 50-60.

[HiBremian]

Thank Fred the football is back on again this evening - or have they voted against that as well ?? :confused:

Apparently we're playing Leavingston tonight.

[cabbageandribs1875]

Robert Peston reckons defeat for Govt by 50-60.



my £2 is on 70+

[Callum_62]

I think that may be quite accurate. Means she will give it another bash again next week though. Unbelievably

Can she do that?


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[Hibrandenburg]

Deal rejected

[JeMeSouviens]

344-286

[weecounty hibby]

Can she do that?


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Just said she will try again. It is beyond belief. She is a disgrace.

[Callum_62]

Just said she will try again. It is beyond belief. She is a disgrace.

How can she tho?

Without substance changes surely?


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[JeMeSouviens]

How can she tho?

Without substance changes surely?


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She could tack on a CU in the PD, but it would split the Tories, so I think the only way out is roll the dice and have a GE.

[Bristolhibby]

Robert Peston reckons defeat for Govt by 50-60.

Rab gets it spot on.

This must be the end, or she puts it to the people. Her deal or No Brexit.

EU would agree to that and Remain will romp it.

It’s how it should have been done with Cameron in the first place. Negotiate the deal, then put it to the people. It’s how the Good Friday Agreement was passed. The people knew what they were actually voting for.

J

[Bristolhibby]

She could tack on a CU in the PD, but it would split the Tories, so I think the only way out is roll the dice and have a GE.

What would the Tories put in their Manifesto regarding BREXIT?

J

[JeMeSouviens]

ERG statement - blah, pish, blah, etc. but ends with:

"This has been a tragic waste of time and energy for our country."

Can't argue with that.

[SHODAN]

If she puts it to a referendum the house will approve it. Otherwise it has to be a GE and her resigning.

We're getting to Trump-esque levels of refusing to face facts.

[Smartie]

ERG statement - blah, pish, blah, etc. but ends with:

"This has been a tragic waste of time and energy for our country."

Can't argue with that.

It doesn't feel good agreeing with anything the ERG has to say, but........

[SHODAN]

ERG statement - blah, pish, blah, etc. but ends with:

"This has been a tragic waste of time and energy for our country."

Can't argue with that.

I'm guessing the pish probably consisted of old words too archaic for us mere mortals to understand and some highly topical private school jokes?

[weecounty hibby]

Rab gets it spot on.

This must be the end, or she puts it to the people. Her deal or No Brexit.

EU would agree to that and Remain will romp it.

It’s how it should have been done with Cameron in the first place. Negotiate the deal, then put it to the people. It’s how the Good Friday Agreement was passed. The people knew what they were actually voting for.

J
Spot on. The whole process has been done arse for tit. People voted on a whimsical idea of taking back control of laws, borders etc. But didn't want to know about the negatives of which there are many. Let the people voted on leave or remain now. It will most definitely be a different outcome

[Hibrandenburg]

EU patience waining. They are now at a point where they want to get on with their lives, either with or without the UK.

[lapsedhibee]

What would the Tories put in their Manifesto regarding BREXIT?


Probably some deep analysis like "17.4 million".

[JeMeSouviens]

What would the Tories put in their Manifesto regarding BREXIT?

J

Very good question. A majority of them voted for No Deal in the indicative votes.

[JeMeSouviens]

Only 5 Labour rebels.

[JeMeSouviens]

I'm guessing the pish probably consisted of old words too archaic for us mere mortals to understand and some highly topical private school jokes?

Actually, it was (paraphrasing) pretty much "deal is dead, May must go".

[JeMeSouviens]

34 Tory rebs, 6 remain, 28 ERG

[JeMeSouviens]

Emergency Euro Council summit on April 10. UK has to ask for and come up with a reason for extension then or it's no deal.

[PeeJay]

From an EU point-of-view "No Deal" is now the best option (for the EU)

Difficult to see an extension being granted as I cannot see any clear and intentional purpose that the House will also agree on being presented by the UK to the EU for consideration ... the UK has singularly failed to agree on anything up to the present date ...

[Callum_62]

Surely parliaments indicative votes ruled out no deal - it should be thrown out now

Not used as a stick to try and beat folk into accepting something else

Monday might be an interesting day


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[SHODAN]

34 Tory rebs, 6 remain, 28 ERG

ERG could push it over the line which is very worrying.

[Moulin Yarns]

From an EU point-of-view "No Deal" is now the best option (for the EU)

Difficult to see an extension being granted as I cannot see any clear and intentional purpose that the House will also agree on being presented by the UK to the EU for consideration ... the UK has singularly failed to agree on anything up to the present date ...




If Customs Union gets a majority, or close to a majority, on Monday then it is possible that the EU would accept an extension on that basis as it also solves the NI border issue.

[SHODAN]

Would Customs Union only keep us freedom of movement?

[HUTCHYHIBBY]

It’s how it should have been done with Cameron in the first place. Negotiate the deal, then put it to the people. It’s how the Good Friday Agreement was passed. The people knew what they were actually voting for.

J

That's basically why I said a few pages ago that Cameron got off reasonably lightly with causing this nightmare, he was just massaging his own ego and never gave a second thought to leave winning.

[JeMeSouviens]

Would Customs Union only keep us freedom of movement?

Nope. Only full SM participation does that.

A CU would mean:

- zero tariffs on goods between UK and EU
- common external tariffs on goods from UK/EU to Rest of World

There would be a bunch of conditions attached on goods standards, probably environmental regulations and things in exchange for allowing the UK to participate.

[SHODAN]

Nope. Only full SM participation does that.

A CU would mean:

- zero tariffs on goods between UK and EU
- common external tariffs on goods from UK/EU to Rest of World

There would be a bunch of conditions attached on goods standards, probably environmental regulations and things in exchange for allowing the UK to participate.

That'll be a no from me then.

[JeMeSouviens]

From an EU point-of-view "No Deal" is now the best option (for the EU)

Difficult to see an extension being granted as I cannot see any clear and intentional purpose that the House will also agree on being presented by the UK to the EU for consideration ... the UK has singularly failed to agree on anything up to the present date ...




It probably depends on where you are in the EU. The Irish govt reckons something like a 5% hit to GDP and 50K job losses in the event of No Deal.

The EU have already indicated a UK general election, a 2nd referendum or a new Brexit plan that can command a stable majority in parliament would be sufficient for an extension.

[JeMeSouviens]

That'll be a no from me then.

Considering our exports are (in value terms) something like 80/20 weighted in favour of services to goods, it's a very poor second prize compared to the SM. And, as you rightly point out, we lose FoM. Disaster for Scotland.

I think the reason a CU is fixated on so much is that it would avoid border delays and hence keep supply chains flowing freely. Obviously a big deal and would help protect potentially hundreds of thousands of UK jobs. But in terms of the hit coming to the economy, SM participation is much more valuable.

[Moulin Yarns]

It probably depends on where you are in the EU. The Irish govt reckons something like a 5% hit to GDP and 50K job losses in the event of No Deal.

The EU have already indicated a UK general election, a 2nd referendum or a new Brexit plan that can command a stable majority in parliament would be sufficient for an extension.

Custom Union 2.0 prepared for Monday Vote. Not brilliant but fingers crossed.

https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1111643031277584385/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwte rm%5E1111643031277584385%7Ctwgr%5E363937393b70726f 64756374696f6e&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.co.uk%2Fnews%2Flive% 2***-politics-parliaments-47696409

[JeMeSouviens]

Custom Union 2.0 prepared for Monday Vote. Not brilliant but fingers crossed.

https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1111643031277584385/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwte rm%5E1111643031277584385%7Ctwgr%5E363937393b70726f 64756374696f6e&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.co.uk%2Fnews%2Flive% 2***-politics-parliaments-47696409

That's Common Market 2.0 aka Norway+. It would involve full SM *and* CU participation. Keeps FoM and a fully open Irish border.

Fixed version of your link - https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1111643031277584385

[Moulin Yarns]

That's Common Market 2.0 aka Norway+. It would involve full SM *and* CU participation. Keeps FoM and a fully open Irish border.

Fixed version of your link - https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1111643031277584385

so it is. My bad. Things are happening too quick for my brain. :greengrin

Definite fingers crossed then

[stoneyburn hibs]

Surely the speaker won't allow her to have a fourth go ?
Or it could be that the Euro bloc decide enough is enough and off you go with no deal.

[Hibrandenburg]

The EU have already indicated a UK general election, a 2nd referendum or a new Brexit plan that can command a stable majority in parliament would be sufficient for an extension.

That was before the agreed extension. EU leaders are now starting to show discontent towards this circus that was mildly amusing to start with but has now become a serious pain in le Cul. Remember it only takes 1 of the 27 to be pissed off enough to pool the crocodile trapdoor lever.

[JeMeSouviens]

Surely the speaker won't allow her to have a fourth go ?
Or it could be that the Euro bloc decide enough is enough and off you go with no deal.

We are now at the mercy of the EU agreeing an extension, and any of the 27 could veto it. In practice, there are probably enough states who have a lot of trade with the UK who will be in favour and none with enough of an objection to block it.

[Newry Hibs]

That was before the agreed extension. EU leaders are now starting to show discontent towards this circus that was mildly amusing to start with but has now become a serious pain in le Cul. Remember it only takes 1 of the 27 to be pissed off enough to pool the crocodile trapdoor lever.

They will all do what Germany wants. So you think Latvia would go against the rest?

[Moulin Yarns]

They will all do what Germany wants. So you think Latvia would go against the rest?

They will do what is best for their members, like Ireland.

[JeMeSouviens]

That was before the agreed extension. EU leaders are now starting to show discontent towards this circus that was mildly amusing to start with but has now become a serious pain in le Cul. Remember it only takes 1 of the 27 to be pissed off enough to pool the crocodile trapdoor lever.

True and we will be testing patience. The big worry is May goes with some half arsed extension request and ****s it up so badly they tell her to get tae ...

[JeMeSouviens]

They will all do what Germany wants. So you think Latvia would go against the rest?

If anyone does, it will be France.

[Hibrandenburg]

They will all do what Germany wants. So you think Latvia would go against the rest?

Maybe, maybe no. That's the difference between the EU and UK, power isn't centralised and the individual member states have to be listened to and brought on board.

[JeMeSouviens]

10 Downing St briefing that they are going to try again - outcome of indicative votes vs May's deal. Jesus wept.

[Bristolhibby]

One option could be a Mays Deal with a Customs Union with a confirmatory public vote added to the bill.

Might get it through.

My preference would be Single Market access with a confirmatory vote.

J

[Hibernia&Alba]

Anyone just see the Orange band marching past the Commons as part of the pro-Brexit rally on the news? Big day out from Larkhall.

[Hibrandenburg]

True and we will be testing patience. The big worry is May goes with some half arsed extension request and ****s it up so badly they tell her to get tae ...

:agree: I'm scratching my napper trying to think what will convince them to extend other than a 2nd referendum and even the promise of that might be too late.

[Hibernia&Alba]

Tommy Robinson guest speaker; Orange bands and Union Jacks everywhere. It looks Rangers at a cup final. :rolleyes:

[Ozyhibby]

Considering our exports are (in value terms) something like 80/20 weighted in favour of services to goods, it's a very poor second prize compared to the SM. And, as you rightly point out, we lose FoM. Disaster for Scotland.

I think the reason a CU is fixated on so much is that it would avoid border delays and hence keep supply chains flowing freely. Obviously a big deal and would help protect potentially hundreds of thousands of UK jobs. But in terms of the hit coming to the economy, SM participation is much more valuable.

Also people are looking at the results of Thursdays votes without looking at the reasons behind them. Common Market 2.0 did have a lower vote but that’s because Labour whipped against it and snp abstained. If that changes it’s possible that it could beat CU.


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[PeeJay]

They will all do what Germany wants. So you think Latvia would go against the rest?

Perfect example of the lazty and ill-considered thinking about the EU that has brough the UK to the place it is today - if only it was true! :greengrin

[PeeJay]

It probably depends on where you are in the EU. The Irish govt reckons something like a 5% hit to GDP and 50K job losses in the event of No Deal.

The EU have already indicated a UK general election, a 2nd referendum or a new Brexit plan that can command a stable majority in parliament would be sufficient for an extension.


A new Brexit plan? Does anybody on here think this is possible?

The EU elections will be the ultimate stumbling block I feel - the citizens of the EU will find it extremely difficult to accept the UK participating in the decision-making process for the new EU Parliament if it has no interest in actualy being part of it unless to act as mischief-makers - difficult to sell that to the EU electorate - maybe we should have a referendum over here too?? :greengrin

[Moulin Yarns]

Now we have Wetherspoons owner on stage!!!! What a ****er.

"you can buy anything you could get in Europe from the rest of the world. We have swapped french Brandy for Aussie Brandy, we have swapped French champagne for English sparkling wine". So no You can't buy the same from around the world. You can buy an imitation.

[Moulin Yarns]

A new Brexit plan? Does anybody on here think this is possible?

The EU elections will be the ultimate stumbling block I feel - the citizens of the EU will find it extremely difficult to accept the UK participating in the decision-making process for the new EU Parliament if it has no interest in actualy being part of it unless to act as mischief-makers - difficult to sell that to the EU electorate - maybe we should have a referendum over here too?? :greengrin

Elections? But the EU is an unelected beurocratic elite run for the benefit of Germany and France? N'est pa??

[GlesgaeHibby]

We are now at the mercy of the EU agreeing an extension, and any of the 27 could veto it. In practice, there are probably enough states who have a lot of trade with the UK who will be in favour and none with enough of an objection to block it.

It is entirely within our control to revoke article 50, and indeed it's probably the only sensible way to put the handbrake on and figure out an agreeable way forward without prospect of cliff edge no deal.

[Mibbes Aye]

Also people are looking at the results of Thursdays votes without looking at the reasons behind them. Common Market 2.0 did have a lower vote but that’s because Labour whipped against it and snp abstained. If that changes it’s possible that it could beat CU.


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Labour didn’t whip against 2.0 is my understanding.

They whipped for the party’s own amendment, the second vote and the customs union.

For 2.0 the leadership and whips were meant to encourage support but fall short of making it a whipped vote. That could be seen as less than wholehearted support mind you.

[JeMeSouviens]

:agree: I'm scratching my napper trying to think what will convince them to extend other than a 2nd referendum and even the promise of that might be too late.

This guy is very well "plugged in" as they say, to Brussels circles:

https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1111658756562132993

[JeMeSouviens]

Labour didn’t whip against 2.0 is my understanding.

They whipped for the party’s own amendment, the second vote and the customs union.

For 2.0 the leadership and whips were meant to encourage support but fall short of making it a whipped vote. That could be seen as less than wholehearted support mind you.

Labour's own plan is pretty close to CM 2.0 if you prune out the fantasy undeliverables that would be pruned in negotiations anyway. So it's not a big stretch to coalesce the 2.

[JeMeSouviens]

It is entirely within our control to revoke article 50, and indeed it's probably the only sensible way to put the handbrake on and figure out an agreeable way forward without prospect of cliff edge no deal.

Amen. Too sensible to actually happen you'd think.

[Ozyhibby]

Labour's own plan is pretty close to CM 2.0 if you prune out the fantasy undeliverables that would be pruned in negotiations anyway. So it's not a big stretch to coalesce the 2.

Except it can’t be seen to be coming from the Labour front bench or it would lose Tory votes.


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[Ozyhibby]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190329/a5685289784f9fa81722c0d856fae927.jpg


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[JeMeSouviens]

A new Brexit plan? Does anybody on here think this is possible?

The EU elections will be the ultimate stumbling block I feel - the citizens of the EU will find it extremely difficult to accept the UK participating in the decision-making process for the new EU Parliament if it has no interest in actualy being part of it unless to act as mischief-makers - difficult to sell that to the EU electorate - maybe we should have a referendum over here too?? :greengrin

It's possible but I wouldn't hold my breath. There will be clear conditions attached to UK participation in an extension, they may not get to vote on everything for example. As we've already seen we are still current members but excluded from the room when Brexit is discussed. I'd be surprised if the citizens of the EU were consulted. :wink:

[JeMeSouviens]

Except it can’t be seen to be coming from the Labour front bench or it would lose Tory votes.


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Yes, but Labour could row in behind Boles, Lucy Powell etc.

[JeMeSouviens]

Apparently a delegation of cabinet ministers have gone to see the PM demanding No Deal.

[cabbageandribs1875]

21833

[Moulin Yarns]

Wow!!!!


https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1111672627414872064?s=19

Ozhibby beat me to it.

[Callum_62]

Apparently a delegation of cabinet ministers have gone to see the PM demanding No Deal.

Wonder how many constituents a delegation

Cabinet minister too - again this should be across the house consensus - they cant even get a cabinet consensus


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[PeeJay]

It's possible but I wouldn't hold my breath. There will be clear conditions attached to UK participation in an extension, they may not get to vote on everything for example. As we've already seen we are still current members but excluded from the room when Brexit is discussed. I'd be surprised if the citizens of the EU were consulted. :wink:


That's my worry really -

What happens if the UK leaves after a 2 year extension and its MEPs depart too - this will then effectively put the kibosh on the EU Parliament so we will then have to start again with elections, as the Parliament will be unable to pass legislation ... this isn't just about the UK

[lapsedhibee]

Wow!!!!


https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1111672627414872064?s=19

Ozhibby beat me to it.

Doddsy can be refreshingly plain-speaking with interviewers.

[cabbageandribs1875]

i wonder how many innocent kafflik brexiteers are clapping whilst watching the catchy wee music band outside westminster, not realising how much hatred the musicians would show towards them if they found out they were kaffliks

[Hibrandenburg]

It is entirely within our control to revoke article 50, and indeed it's probably the only sensible way to put the handbrake on and figure out an agreeable way forward without prospect of cliff edge no deal.

With Tommeh and Farage whipping up the right-wing masses as I type, revoking article 50 would provoke civil unrest like the UK hasn't seen in centuries. Some kind of official counterbalance to the last referendum is needed before we can go down that route.

[hibsbollah]

Tory MP Mark Francois says he has a message for all the “euromaniacs” on the Today programme.
“Up yours..”
Massive cheer.:protest::monkey::trumpet:

[Peevemor]

If anyone does, it will be France.A no deal Brexit would, among other things, scupper the French fishing industry together with the associated processing & logistic jobs.

[Newry Hibs]

With Tommeh and Farage whipping up the right-wing masses as I type, revoking article 50 would provoke civil unrest like the UK hasn't seen in centuries. Some kind of official counterbalance to the last referendum is needed before we can go down that route.

..'Right wing masses'!!! Yeah right.

[James310]

If we 'crash out' with no deal, then will the Labour and SNP parties not look back and think they had the power to have stopped it, but either by abstaining or voting against deals or proposals that would have stopped a no deal they have contributed in their own way to the No Deal.

[Hibbyradge]

If we 'crash out' with no deal, then will the Labour and SNP parties not look back and think they had the power to have stopped it, but either by abstaining or voting against deals or proposals that would have stopped a no deal they have contributed in their own way to the No Deal.

It won't happen.

But if it does, the blame will sit squarely at the feet of the Conservative and Unionist party.

All wings of it.

[hibsbollah]

It won't happen.

But if it does, the blame will sit squarely at the feet of the Conservative and Unionist party.

All wings of it.

:agree: Any attempt to shift the blame away from the Tories is just pure revisionism.

[James310]

:agree: Any attempt to shift the blame away from the Tories is just pure revisionism.

I agree they take the blame, but the facts and history will show there was an opportunity to have done something about it but they chose not to.

[Hibbyradge]

I agree they take the blame, but the facts and history will show there was an opportunity to have done something about it but they chose not to.

They're trying hard to do something appropriate about it.

[James310]

They're trying hard to do something appropriate about it.

It was a gamble, sometimes you get them right but sometimes you get them wrong. Guess we will find out in next few weeks if it has paid off.

[jonty]

'Sad Nigel' :faf:

https://twitter.com/ByDonkeys/status/1111706970057265153

[JeMeSouviens]

If we 'crash out' with no deal, then will the Labour and SNP parties not look back and think they had the power to have stopped it, but either by abstaining or voting against deals or proposals that would have stopped a no deal they have contributed in their own way to the No Deal.

Even by your standards that’s an absolute shocker. Akin to “well, she was asking for it”. Dearie me.

[James310]

Even by your standards that’s an absolute shocker. Akin to “well, she was asking for it”. Dearie me.

Is it factually wrong what I said? I will ignore your crass comments at the end.

[JeMeSouviens]

Is it factually wrong what I said? I will ignore your crass comments at the end.

I imagine you could construct a narrow minded view removed of all context where it would be technically true.

In the real world it’s utter pish. I only murdered your family because you wouldn’t let me steal all your stuff is not a defence. If no deal happens it’s 100% on the Tories.

*******s.

[SHODAN]

To be fair, Tories will probably still be blaming Labour for any and all economic decisions they "have" to make in 2110 so it makes sense they'd try and blame Brexit on them too.

[James310]

I imagine you could construct a narrow minded view removed of all context where it would be technically true.

In the real world it’s utter pish. I only murdered your family because you wouldn’t let me steal all your stuff is not a defence. If no deal happens it’s 100% on the Tories.

*******s.

I think your example is nonsense and nothing like a similar scenario. If by voting A you can stop B, then don't act surprised if B happens and you never voted for A.

But at least you can see what I said was factually correct.

I do wonder if we leave with no deal and you ask Blackford et al if they had wished they had voted for the CU and not abstained what their reply will be.

[JeMeSouviens]

I think your example is nonsense and nothing like a similar scenario. If by voting A you can stop B, then don't act surprised if B happens and you never voted for A.

But at least you can see what I said was factually correct.

I do wonder if we leave with no deal and you ask Blackford et al if they had wished they had voted for the CU and not abstained what their reply will be.

Absolute drivel. May can revoke at any stage therefore she is entirely responsible if there is no deal.

My example is fine. The only person to blame for a gunshot is the person who fired it.

Suck it up and admit your party is the only guilty one here.

[Ozyhibby]

Common Market 2.0 getting backing from SNP. If they can get Labour on board and possibly the DUP then it should have the votes.


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[Callum_62]

Common Market 2.0 getting backing from SNP. If they can get Labour on board and possibly the DUP then it should have the votes.


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Is that single market and CU?




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[Ozyhibby]

Is that single market and CU?




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Yes.


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[Tornadoes70]

Common Market 2.0 getting backing from SNP. If they can get Labour on board and possibly the DUP then it should have the votes.


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Why on earth would a UK wide Labour party wish to side with these two mad nationalist fringe parties. We'll probably lose a few voters because of brexit as it is never mind those we'd lose teaming up with these two sideshow bandwagons.

Great to see brexit hasn't seen a rise in bald nationalism though indeed the snp appear to have lost support according to their leaked polling and have lately seen arguments breaking out among their hierarchy.

Mon Labour!!!

[Newry Hibs]

Common Market 2.0 getting backing from SNP. If they can get Labour on board and possibly the DUP then it should have the votes.


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Common market 2.0 aka 'Remain'

[Ozyhibby]

Common market 2.0 aka 'Remain'

No, with remain you get a seat at the table.


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[Newry Hibs]

No, with remain you get a seat at the table.


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True.

[McSwanky]

Why on earth would a UK wide Labour party wish to side with these two mad nationalist fringe parties. We'll probably lose a few voters because of brexit as it is never mind those we'd lose teaming up with these two sideshow bandwagons.

Maybe if the proposal being put forward is a good one?

Do us all a favour and start at least looking like you're trying to play the ball, not the man...

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[McD]

Why on earth would a UK wide Labour party wish to side with these two mad nationalist fringe parties. We'll probably lose a few voters because of brexit as it is never mind those we'd lose teaming up with these two sideshow bandwagons.

Great to see brexit hasn't seen a rise in bald nationalism though indeed the snp appear to have lost support according to their leaked polling and have lately seen arguments breaking out among their hierarchy.

Mon Labour!!!


Do you ever take a break?


I fully expect to see a thread soon where someone asks what the score between 2 football teams is, and there’ll be a reply from you telling us it’s a great victory from Corbyn and another example of how all conquering the Labour Party is using their socialist policies



thank you for this post though, it’s shown you up for what you are - someone who would cheerfully see the uk, and all it’s nations, out of Europe and up the Swanny, as long as labour don’t have to muddy themselves by working alongside other political parties. You do realise that that is what would happen if your beloved Jeremy got into power, he and his party would have to work alongside other parties? It’s how parliament works.

[cabbageandribs1875]

the Dregs of Society.....shower of dippit looking scruffy tramps


21836

[Mr Grieves]

the Dregs of Society.....shower of dippit looking scruffy tramps


21836

More pleasant people

https://www.channel4.com/news/who-is-the-man-behind-the-fishing-for-leave-protest

[Hibernia&Alba]

the Dregs of Society.....shower of dippit looking scruffy tramps


21836

Several Orange bands there today for the pro Brexit rally, in full Sgt Pepper uniforms and no doubt lapping up the bile of the likes of Tommy Robinson. Any right wing excuse and they are out.

[Tornadoes70]

Do you ever take a break?


I fully expect to see a thread soon where someone asks what the score between 2 football teams is, and there’ll be a reply from you telling us it’s a great victory from Corbyn and another example of how all conquering the Labour Party is using their socialist policies



thank you for this post though, it’s shown you up for what you are - someone who would cheerfully see the uk, and all it’s nations, out of Europe and up the Swanny, as long as labour don’t have to muddy themselves by working alongside other political parties. You do realise that that is what would happen if your beloved Jeremy got into power, he and his party would have to work alongside other parties? It’s how parliament works.

We'd never work with especially the DUP.

I've replied because at least your post is thought provoking unlike some who either ignore or dismiss to their lodge brothers in a derogatory manner.

We've changed for the better back from the brink of the blarite years to our core values and would welcome good folk like yourself as we can actually change the UK for the better back to how it should work for the benefit of the many not the few.

Nationalist parties like the DUP and SNP are mere moments in time who'll promise the earth to achieve their naked self serving aims while much broader socialist core value parties like ours make real beneficial change for the many who greatly suffer at the expense of the few when bald nationalism advances.

Jeremy is a lifelong supporter for the many.

Mon Labour!!!