Brexit - what will happen next

[Pretty Boy]

Does anyone work in the building trade here?

If we'd seen white collar environments flooded with cheap Eastern European labour with the implications that come with that I'd imagine we'd see a lot less smugness on here.

I wish the social justice warriors would have the testicles to say the ideas they push are fine as long as they are not the ones being shafted.

Reading back a few pages I can't see anyone really arguing immigration doesn't have any negative points; the issue seems to be with a specific post about voting intentions and tax rebates.

I think the 'they took our jobs' and 'racist' hyperbole on both sides is what keeps a sensible debate about immigration firmly off the table.

[weecounty hibby]

Does anyone work in the building trade here?

If we'd seen white collar environments flooded with cheap Eastern European labour with the implications that come with that I'd imagine we'd see a lot less smugness on here.

I wish the social justice warriors would have the testicles to say the ideas they push are fine as long as they are not the ones being shafted.

What about the highly skilled doctors, consultants and nurses in hospitals. Or teachers in schools. Or GPs filling positions in areas that find it difficult to get GPs? There are loads of managers within my company who come from various parts of the world. Australia, Asia, Europe both east and west, Canada. So not really sure what your point is

[Mibbes Aye]

Immigrants coming here to work and wanting to vote???

They'll be setting up football teams next!!!

[Moulin Yarns]

Does anyone work in the building trade here?

If we'd seen white collar environments flooded with cheap Eastern European labour with the implications that come with that I'd imagine we'd see a lot less smugness on here.

I wish the social justice warriors would have the testicles to say the ideas they push are fine as long as they are not the ones being shafted.

What are you saying? You don't want a polish plumber??

[Moulin Yarns]

White collar workers are also affected and are faced with a choice - go extinct, go down the right wing politics/ UKIP/ Brexit route, or capitalise on the advantages you naturally have over migrants by being from here in the first place.

My line of work saw widespread recruitment from Eastern Europe over the past couple of decades.

I had to raise my game.

👍

[Moulin Yarns]

Immigrants coming here to work and wanting to vote???

They'll be setting up football teams next!!!

Nah. Would never work 😉

[JeMeSouviens]

Does anyone work in the building trade here?

If we'd seen white collar environments flooded with cheap Eastern European labour with the implications that come with that I'd imagine we'd see a lot less smugness on here.

I wish the social justice warriors would have the testicles to say the ideas they push are fine as long as they are not the ones being shafted.

I work in software. Our current team has immigrants from India, Ireland, Italy, Poland and France. I've been employed by US companies probably because I'm cheaper than my equivalent in the Bay area. I've been made redundant at companies that have outsourced to Bangalore.

What's so special about builders?

[SouthsideHarp_Bhoy]

Meanwhile, the coup is in full swing ...

Steve Baker, ERG:

9am


11am


2pm

😂

[SouthsideHarp_Bhoy]

I work in software. Our current team has immigrants from India, Ireland, Italy, Poland and France. I've been employed by US companies probably because I'm cheaper than my equivalent in the Bay area. I've been made redundant at companies that have outsourced to Bangalore.

What's so special about builders?

They get to listen to angry men on talk radio riling them yp all day, creating a faux immigrant outrage.

Bet your fancy software job doesnt do that...

[danhibees1875]

I work in software. Our current team has immigrants from India, Ireland, Italy, Poland and France. I've been employed by US companies probably because I'm cheaper than my equivalent in the Bay area. I've been made redundant at companies that have outsourced to Bangalore.

What's so special about builders?

I'm an accountant - everything I done 5 years ago is now done in India and Poland. I'm not sure if that translates directly to challenges faced by other industries admittedly.

[JimBHibees]

Totally anecdotal evidence from me. :greengrin

Polish guy we got to do 2 or 3 painting jobs for us. Polite, hard working, turned up when he said he would, tidied up, did a decent job and was reasonable.

[Pretty Boy]

Totally anecdotal evidence from me. :greengrin

Polish guy we got to do 2 or 3 painting jobs for us. Polite, hard working, turned up when he said he would, tidied up, did a decent job and was reasonable.

When I worked in hospitality management whenever we advertised jobs, particularly those such as KP, cleaners and so on, the applications from white Scots were almost non existent. Many of those that did apply then didn't bother to show up for interviews or left after about a week because it was a '***** job'.

My partners Dad works in agriculture in Lincolnshire. Boston and surrounding areas was one of the most solid leave votes and the levels of immigration were cited as a reason. He said his industry has had an unofficial policy of bias towards employing white English for years. Unfortunately not enough people from that category apply or stick it so they rely on immigrant labour. Yet his local is full of bitter men mumping about 'no jobs' and 'bloody foreigners'.

Like you it's totally anecdotal evidence but my experience was consistent across 5 years in the job. Our business couldn't have functioned without immigrants and we paid very well by industry standard so it wasn't a case of 'cheap foreign labour'.

[hibsbollah]

Does anyone work in the building trade here?

If we'd seen white collar environments flooded with cheap Eastern European labour with the implications that come with that I'd imagine we'd see a lot less smugness on here.

I wish the social justice warriors would have the testicles to say the ideas they push are fine as long as they are not the ones being shafted.

Do YOU work in the building trade? It seems unlikely because the building trade is absolutely booming at the moment, there is enough work for everybody. 'Polish builders', some of whom have lived in Scotland for fifteen years since enlargement of the EU, are taking advantage of simple supply and demand. Some of these people have kids in Scottish schools who now have Scottish accents and are incorporated into Scottish society. And pretty boys anecdote about Scots not taking low paid work is borne out by the stats; prior to EU enlargement and freedom of movement, British workers were not applying for these jobs. I worked in the policy field for years, and the reality of british generational workless families was depressing but totally clear. You stop freedom of movement, you're left with veg rotting in fields and noone to make your tikka masala.

[Mon Dieu4]

I'm getting building work carried out just now and wish I could have found a cheap Polish dude to do it for me, instead I had to get a Scottish guy to do it for the going rate, was raging

[stoneyburn hibs]

Does anyone work in the building trade here?

If we'd seen white collar environments flooded with cheap Eastern European labour with the implications that come with that I'd imagine we'd see a lot less smugness on here.

I wish the social justice warriors would have the testicles to say the ideas they push are fine as long as they are not the ones being shafted.

I do

Mon Scottish Labour

[ronaldo7]

Totally anecdotal evidence from me. :greengrin

Polish guy we got to do 2 or 3 painting jobs for us. Polite, hard working, turned up when he said he would, tidied up, did a decent job and was reasonable.

In other news, you will get painters of other nationalities to do the same job, sometimes at the same standard, sometimes lower, sometimes higher.

My neighbour got a Polish plasterer in to do a skimming job, done a decent enough job, but never turned up to finish off the edges.

You get good and bad in all nationalities/trades.

[Moulin Yarns]

You get good and bad in all nationalities/trades.

Even politicians :wink:

[makaveli1875]

Even politicians :wink:

ok where are the good politicians ?

[Moulin Yarns]

ok where are the good politicians ?

Well.....

I suppose it depends on how we define good 😉

[stoneyburn hibs]

Does anyone work in the building trade here?

If we'd seen white collar environments flooded with cheap Eastern European labour with the implications that come with that I'd imagine we'd see a lot less smugness on here.

I wish the social justice warriors would have the testicles to say the ideas they push are fine as long as they are not the ones being shafted.

I've been a plumber since I left school and self employed for around 20 years. In all that time I can't say that I've been impacted by anyone that has come to Scotland. I've worked alongside them, worked for them and had them working for me. It's a good thing, you should embrace it.

[Fisherrow Harp]

:greengrin:greengrin:greengrin:greengrin Love it!
Immigrants coming here to work and wanting to vote???

They'll be setting up football teams next!!!

[Mibbes Aye]

Totally anecdotal evidence from me. :greengrin

Polish guy we got to do 2 or 3 painting jobs for us. Polite, hard working, turned up when he said he would, tidied up, did a decent job and was reasonable.


When I worked in hospitality management whenever we advertised jobs, particularly those such as KP, cleaners and so on, the applications from white Scots were almost non existent. Many of those that did apply then didn't bother to show up for interviews or left after about a week because it was a '***** job'.

My partners Dad works in agriculture in Lincolnshire. Boston and surrounding areas was one of the most solid leave votes and the levels of immigration were cited as a reason. He said his industry has had an unofficial policy of bias towards employing white English for years. Unfortunately not enough people from that category apply or stick it so they rely on immigrant labour. Yet his local is full of bitter men mumping about 'no jobs' and 'bloody foreigners'.

Like you it's totally anecdotal evidence but my experience was consistent across 5 years in the job. Our business couldn't have functioned without immigrants and we paid very well by industry standard so it wasn't a case of 'cheap foreign labour'.

Good posts.

Totally anecdotal evidence from me.

Before my current job I worked in a local authority and appointed two Polish persons into management positions because they were the best persons to do their respective jobs by a country mile.

No doubt it pissed others off, including people who felt they had more right by being born here, but I wanted the best person for the job. They've both done well and the service they deliver is better for having them in a position of authority.

There's more than a taint of dog whistle racism from some on here.

For those doing that, be sure that it is counter-productive because your posts stick and every post you make after it reminds everyone you are dodgy as **** as a poster.

[ronaldo7]

I've been a plumber since I left school and self employed for around 20 years. In all that time I can't say that I've been impacted by anyone that has come to Scotland. I've worked alongside them, worked for them and had them working for me. It's a good thing, you should embrace it.

Spot on, bud.

[JeMeSouviens]

Coup update from Steve Baker:


If everyone does what they’ve told me, the line will be crossed by a big margin on Monday evening.

However, it has become very very clear that not everyone does what they’ve said they’re going to do.

Conservative members of parliament who have decided that the only way to change the policy is to change the leader must have the courage and integrity to write the letter themselves.

Simply telling me they’re going to obviously isn’t good enough.

A lack of courage and integrity among the Tory right? Whoever would have thought that ... ? :confused::wink:

[SHODAN]

I know of many Polish and Spanish people that did vote.
They dont seem todo many checks as to how long you have been here.

And yet my Greek fiancee did not - you clearly seem to be an expert on immigration (albeit through anecdotal evidence) so can you tell us how she could have? You also haven't explained how we can claim her "immigrant tax" back.

[JeMeSouviens]

And yet my Greek fiancee did not - you clearly seem to be an expert on immigration (albeit through anecdotal evidence) so can you tell us how she could have? You also haven't explained how we can claim her "immigrant tax" back.

I guess you'd just have to give the name of someone you knew was on the electoral roll and hope they hadn't turned up to vote yet. I doubt many would take a chance on that sort of hassle?

[Future17]

I know of many Polish and Spanish people that did vote.
They dont seem todo many checks as to how long you have been here.

What has long you have been here (or nationality for that matter) got to do with whether you were entitled to vote in the EU Referendum? :confused:

[PeeJay]

What has long you have been here (or nationality for that matter) got to do with whether you were entitled to vote in the EU Referendum? :confused:

A voter's nationality was clearly an eligibility factor ...

[Callum_62]

What has long you have been here (or nationality for that matter) got to do with whether you were entitled to vote in the EU Referendum? :confused:

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[Moulin Yarns]

DUP just abstained on the finance bill in Westminster. Sending a message to the government.

[CropleyWasGod]

Gibraltar raises its head again..

BBC News - Spain demands Gibraltar veto in Brexit deal
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-46267684

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[heretoday]

I hate the way we're all supposed to admire Mrs May for her fortitude in the face of pressure.
It's like admiring the fortitude of a driver who's determined to take you down the wrong side of the motorway.

[Hibernia&Alba]

Gibraltar raises its head again..

BBC News - Spain demands Gibraltar veto in Brexit deal
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-46267684

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When we leave, we will be able to have our own trading block with Gibraltar and the Falkland Islands. That's at least twenty thousand people; get it up ye, Juncker :agree:

[Hibbyradge]

https://youtu.be/svwslRDTyzU

[Hibernia&Alba]

https://youtu.be/svwslRDTyzU

Women and children first, then it's every man for himself.

[Future17]

A voter's nationality was clearly an eligibility factor ...

Unless I'm missing something, I don't think it was.


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Citizenship does not mean nationality or vice versa. To refer to Ryan 69's earlier post, a Polish or Spanish person could also be a British citizen, or a citizen of one of the many other countries whose citizens were entitled to vote in the EU referendum.

[Callum_62]

Unless I'm missing something, I don't think it was.



Citizenship does not mean nationality or vice versa. To refer to Ryan 69's earlier post, a Polish or Spanish person could also be a British citizen, or a citizen of one of the many other countries whose citizens were entitled to vote in the EU referendum.

Absolutely correct. My missus being prime example

Shes Filipino but gained NZ citizenship after many years living there

She had a vote


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[SHODAN]

I guess you'd just have to give the name of someone you knew was on the electoral roll and hope they hadn't turned up to vote yet. I doubt many would take a chance on that sort of hassle?

I also seriously doubt someone would go to the hassle of doing that (and possibly being caught), and even if they did it wouldn't be on such a large scale as to influence the result. If it did, we'd have picked up on it and it'd be a national scandal - the MSM look for any reason to bash immigrants, they'd have been mad for this one.

[Callum_62]

Absolutely correct. My missus being prime example

Shes Filipino but gained NZ citizenship after many years living there

She had a vote

A 4ft 8” South East Asian looking women - with the correct eligibility to vote

Possibly explains they Spanish a Greeks....


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[PeeJay]

Unless I'm missing something, I don't think it was.



Citizenship does not mean nationality or vice versa. To refer to Ryan 69's earlier post, a Polish or Spanish person could also be a British citizen, or a citizen of one of the many other countries whose citizens were entitled to vote in the EU referendum.

Ryan 69 raised the nationality issue - It was NOT the Polish or Spanish citizen who voted in the referendum but the British citizen (who may have been a Pole or a Spaniard with dual nationality!) - your point while a fair one, differs from Ryan 69's, who clearly implied that Poles and Spanish could vote without referring to the fact that they could ONLY do so if they were actually British citizens thereby entitling them to do so ... I mentioned your very point to Ryan 69 - he failed to reply for some reason -

[JeMeSouviens]

https://twitter.com/WritersFrock/status/1064600922528075777

:greengrin

This is good too ...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dh_Og-MjWZI

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dh_Og-MjWZI

[Future17]

Ryan 69 raised the nationality issue - It was NOT the Polish or Spanish citizen who voted in the referendum but the British citizen (who may have been a Pole or a Spaniard with dual nationality!) - your point while a fair one, differs from Ryan 69's, who clearly implied that Poles and Spanish could vote without referring to the fact that they could ONLY do so if they were actually British citizens thereby entitling them to do so ... I mentioned your very point to Ryan 69 - he failed to reply for some reason -

I took the same implication from Ryan69; I was confused by your post that "a voter's nationality was clearly an eligibility factor" though. I'm now guessing I may have missed the sarcasm. :greengrin

For a long time, electoral registration in this country was deeply flawed. Since the introduction of IER, it's better than it's ever been, but is still flawed. The reality is that it would take the exposure of a major electoral scandal for this to change, as the costs (both in financial terms and in terms of elector engagement) of improving matters would be larger than the benefit to the partisan interests of any party likely to be elected into government.

[SHODAN]

I took the same implication from Ryan69; I was confused by your post that "a voter's nationality was clearly an eligibility factor" though. I'm now guessing I may have missed the sarcasm. :greengrin

For a long time, electoral registration in this country was deeply flawed. Since the introduction of IER, it's better than it's ever been, but is still flawed. The reality is that it would take the exposure of a major electoral scandal for this to change, as the costs (both in financial terms and in terms of elector engagement) of improving matters would be larger than the benefit to the partisan interests of any party likely to be elected into government.

All voting should be done online using a secure code/other (with a postal vote still an option for those without the internet), and it should be mandatory, like in Australia. Half the reason Millennials don't go out and vote is we're so used to doing everything online, actually going somewhere to place an X on a card seems bizarre. (also insert lazy stereotype here :wink:)

The current system suits the ruling party (and the opposition) so they'll keep it for as long as they can, but something's gotta give eventually.

[Future17]

All voting should be done online using a secure code/other (with a postal vote still an option for those without the internet), and it should be mandatory, like in Australia. Half the reason Millennials don't go out and vote is we're so used to doing everything online, actually going somewhere to place an X on a card seems bizarre. (also insert lazy stereotype here :wink:)

The current system suits the ruling party (and the opposition) so they'll keep it for as long as they can, but something's gotta give eventually.

I don’t think there is any perfect system. A system which is purely online/electronic is susceptible to hacking, or other forms of manipulation in a way which may be easier than the current system.

I’m not in favour of compulsory voting; there are plenty of people who have no interest in electing politicians/parties and some who are too ignorant to be involved in doing so. I can only see disadvantages in making people select an option for the sake of it, particularly if we were to make it as easy as clicking the first button they came to online. I think it would be a very small proportion of people who don’t vote simply because they’re required to visit somewhere local on the day, or stick an envelope in the post.

[Fife-Hibee]

All voting should be done online using a secure code/other (with a postal vote still an option for those without the internet), and it should be mandatory, like in Australia. Half the reason Millennials don't go out and vote is we're so used to doing everything online, actually going somewhere to place an X on a card seems bizarre. (also insert lazy stereotype here :wink:)

The current system suits the ruling party (and the opposition) so they'll keep it for as long as they can, but something's gotta give eventually.

How would they go about making voting mandatory? People can't be forced to vote in a democracy. You have the democratic right to choose not to vote for either schmuck.

[Hibbyradge]

How would they go about making voting mandatory? People can't be forced to vote in a democracy. You have the democratic right to choose not to vote for either schmuck.

Because it's a secret ballot, I believe that your attendance at the voting centre and putting a ballot paper in the box is the compulsory part. Voter's need not mark the ballot paper.

Loads of countries have compulsory voting;

Austria
Argentina
Australia
Belgium
Bolivia
Brazil
Chile
Costa Rica
Cyprus
Dominican Republic
Ecuador
Egypt
Fiji
France (senate only)
Gabon
Greece
Guatemala
Honduras
Italy
Liechtenstein
Luxembourg
Mexico
Nauru
Paraguay
Peru
Philippines
Singapore
Switzerland (Schaffhausen)
Thailand
Turkey
Uruguay

[CropleyWasGod]

All voting should be done online using a secure code/other (with a postal vote still an option for those without the internet), and it should be mandatory, like in Australia. Half the reason Millennials don't go out and vote is we're so used to doing everything online, actually going somewhere to place an X on a card seems bizarre. (also insert lazy stereotype here :wink:)

The current system suits the ruling party (and the opposition) so they'll keep it for as long as they can, but something's gotta give eventually.

The problem with online voiting is that there are always going to be suspicions about it no longer being a secret ballot.

[JeMeSouviens]

The problem with online voiting is that there are always going to be suspicions about it no longer being a secret ballot.

What's the difference to that and postal voting where there are already widespread allegations of jiggery pokery?

[JeMeSouviens]

Back on topic ... Amber Rudd (now back in cabinet) says on R4 Today prog that parliament wouldn't allow no deal.

Direct contradiction to May, unless they've changed strategy?

[JeMeSouviens]

I think that seen in the context of the ERG's failure to oust her and May's attempts to peel off the not-quite-lunatic Brexiters by eg. inviting IDS etc to Downing St and making encouraging noises about (non-existent) max-fac technology, it is a change of strategy.

Threaten no brexit to get the leavers on side and hope there are enough Brexity Labour types to get over the line. The numbers still look against the deal though. I can't see the DUP coming onside, there will still be a handful of the real frothing at the mouth Tory Brexiters who will vote against and with no deal removed from the equation I just don't think there are enough potential Labour rebels.

[CropleyWasGod]

What's the difference to that and postal voting where there are already widespread allegations of jiggery pokery?

Postal voting is the minority, and, yes, open to manipulation.

Online voting would be virtually 100%.

[JeMeSouviens]

Update to update above. Some commentators, eg. Robert Peston, now saying that the gov knows they'll lose the vote but think they'll get it through at a 2nd attempt (possibly with some cosmetic "renegotiation" tweaks) after the markets have tanked.

[Future17]

The problem with online voiting is that there are always going to be suspicions about it no longer being a secret ballot.

Apologies if I've picked you up wrongly, but if by "no longer being a secret ballot" you mean individual votes could be traced back to individual people, that's already the case with the current system (and not just postal votes).

[CropleyWasGod]

Apologies if I've picked you up wrongly, but if by "no longer being a secret ballot" you mean individual votes could be traced back to individual people, that's already the case with the current system (and not just postal votes).

I understand that, and agree with you.

But this is about perception, and the suspicion that fraud and manipulation are in some way easier with an electronic system.

I'm sure some techie will come along and tell me that there are ways of assuring us of complete secrecy and tamper-free voting. Whilst that may be possible, one can understand that the public may take a lot of convincing.

[Fife-Hibee]

Because it's a secret ballot, I believe that your attendance at the voting centre and putting a ballot paper in the box is the compulsory part. Voter's need not mark the ballot paper.

Loads of countries have compulsory voting;

Austria
Argentina
Australia
Belgium
Bolivia
Brazil
Chile
Costa Rica
Cyprus
Dominican Republic
Ecuador
Egypt
Fiji
France (senate only)
Gabon
Greece
Guatemala
Honduras
Italy
Liechtenstein
Luxembourg
Mexico
Nauru
Paraguay
Peru
Philippines
Singapore
Switzerland (Schaffhausen)
Thailand
Turkey
Uruguay

Wouldn't posting blank ballots leave the system open to corruption? The ballot papers could easily be marked during the counting process. The countries listed aren't exactly known for their transparent political systems.

[Fife-Hibee]

May warning her back benchers that voting down the current deal on offer may lead to a no deal.

What happened to "no deal is better than a bad deal"?

[JeMeSouviens]

I understand that, and agree with you.

But this is about perception, and the suspicion that fraud and manipulation are in some way easier with an electronic system.

I'm sure some techie will come along and tell me that there are ways of assuring us of complete secrecy and tamper-free voting. Whilst that may be possible, one can understand that the public may take a lot of convincing.

This is my favourite cartoon for all your cyber security concerns. :greengrin

https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/security.png

[CropleyWasGod]

This is my favourite cartoon for all your cyber security concerns. :greengrin

https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/security.png

Tell me at which point I should laugh. I glazed over at "crypto...." :greengrin:greengrin:greengrin

[JeMeSouviens]

Tell me at which point I should laugh. I glazed over at "crypto...." :greengrin:greengrin:greengrin

Sheesh, pearls before swine. :rolleyes:

[Hibbyradge]

Wouldn't posting blank ballots leave the system open to corruption? The ballot papers could easily be marked during the counting process. The countries listed aren't exactly known for their transparent political systems.

I suppose in theory, vote counters could sneak pens in and vote for their favoured candidate. People post blank papers in the UK.

That wasn't the question though. You asked what you could do if you disliked both, or all, options and it was a compulsory system.

If you don't turn up, you face a fine, but your vote isn't checked.

Vote for all the candidates or none or spoil your paper another way, if you really can't choose the best of a bad bunch.

[Fife-Hibee]

I suppose in theory, vote counters could sneak pens in and vote for their favoured candidate. People post blank papers in the UK.

That wasn't the question though. You asked what you could do if you disliked both, or all, options and it was a compulsory system.

If you don't turn up, you face a fine, but your vote isn't checked.

Vote for all the candidates or none or spoil your paper another way, if you really can't choose the best of a bad bunch.

I just don't see the point in it. The political system should be doing more to make people want to vote, rather than forcing them to turn up against their will.

[danhibees1875]

I just don't see the point in it. The political system should be doing more to make people want to vote, rather than forcing them to turn up against their will.

:agree:

Mandatory voting makes no sense to me - I don't see the appeal.

[Hibbyradge]

I just don't see the point in it. The political system should be doing more to make people want to vote, rather than forcing them to turn up against their will.

I understand the arguments against, but political scientists agree that mandatory voting increases voter engagement even if at first, it's seen as an imposition.

[Fife-Hibee]

I understand the arguments against, but political scientists agree that mandatory voting increases voter engagement even if at first, it's seen as an imposition.

Political scientists?

[PeeJay]

Because it's a secret ballot, I believe that your attendance at the voting centre and putting a ballot paper in the box is the compulsory part. Voter's need not mark the ballot paper.

Loads of countries have compulsory voting;


Switzerland (Schaffhausen)


No - Switzerland does not have compulsory voting - the canton of Schaffhausen (small part of Switzerland) does, but not the country of Switzerland itself ...

[Hibbyradge]

No - Switzerland does not have compulsory voting - the canton of Schaffhausen (small part of Switzerland) does, but not the country of Switzerland itself ...

Thanks.

Obviously I just copied and pasted the list.

[Hibbyradge]

Political scientists?

Yes.

[Callum_62]

Draft agreement agreed between EU and UK


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[JeMeSouviens]

Another cabinet minister says Brexit can be reversed.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/22/matt-hancock-says-second-brexit-referendum-is-possible

[danhibees1875]

Draft agreement agreed between EU and UK


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On the face of it, it's probably a compromise by both parties that is realistically the best of the Brexit options we'll get.

I can see it being voted down though with the more extreme leavers finding it not leave enough and the remainers finding it too leave-y combining to both vote it down; leaving us with the final decision of a no deal brexit, or remaining.

But, at the same time I've also no idea what's going on. :greengrin

[JeMeSouviens]

On the face of it, it's probably a compromise by both parties that is realistically the best of the Brexit options we'll get.

I can see it being voted down though with the more extreme leavers finding it not leave enough and the remainers finding it too leave-y combining to both vote it down; leaving us with the final decision of a no deal brexit, or remaining.

But, at the same time I've also no idea what's going on. :greengrin

This isn't the draft withdrawal agreement, this is the leaked political declaration which is essentially a few pages of aspirational waffle that's supposed to set the framework for negotiations for the future deal.

The BBC have a leaked copy of it. The bit on fishing is interesting for Scottish politics:

https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1065548735646707713

New agreement establishing "access to waters and quota shares". Supposedly, this was the Scottish Tories' red line. So we can expect Mundell to resign and them all to vote against? (no laughing at the back :rolleyes:)

[danhibees1875]

This isn't the draft withdrawal agreement, this is the leaked political declaration which is essentially a few pages of aspirational waffle that's supposed to set the framework for negotiations for the future deal.

The BBC have a leaked copy of it. The bit on fishing is interesting for Scottish politics:

https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1065548735646707713

New agreement establishing "access to waters and quota shares". Supposedly, this was the Scottish Tories' red line. So we can expect Mundell to resign and them all to vote against? (no laughing at the back :rolleyes:)

So it's not even all that exciting! :grr:

Ach well, more fun to come. At least it keeps Brexit in the news a bit longer.

[Future17]

I understand that, and agree with you.

But this is about perception, and the suspicion that fraud and manipulation are in some way easier with an electronic system.

I'm sure some techie will come along and tell me that there are ways of assuring us of complete secrecy and tamper-free voting. Whilst that may be possible, one can understand that the public may take a lot of convincing.

I get you; I would say fraud and manipulation are different to the secrecy of the ballot though.

As an aside, in terms of the result accurately reflecting legitimate votes cast, I'm in no doubt that the current system is safer than an entirely electronic system.

[JeMeSouviens]

So it's not even all that exciting! :grr:

Ach well, more fun to come. At least it keeps Brexit in the news a bit longer.

I can't see any way Brexit won't be in the news for many years to come, sadly.

Well, post-independence I guess it might not be in *our* news quite as much :wink:

[Peevemor]

This isn't the draft withdrawal agreement, this is the leaked political declaration which is essentially a few pages of aspirational waffle that's supposed to set the framework for negotiations for the future deal.

The BBC have a leaked copy of it. The bit on fishing is interesting for Scottish politics:

https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1065548735646707713

New agreement establishing "access to waters and quota shares". Supposedly, this was the Scottish Tories' red line. So we can expect Mundell to resign and them all to vote against? (no laughing at the back :rolleyes:)

That was a certainty, and one of the first points I raised when, after the Brexit vote result, May said that any Scottish Indyref would have to wait until after Brexit.

[heretoday]

The nation is fed up to the back teeth with this business. If the MPs have half an ear for what their constituents are feeling they'll back this deal in the House and set about making the best of things.
Fat chance of that I suppose.

[Fife-Hibee]

Looks like the Scottish fisheries are about to be sold down the river without the fishing rods. My heart bleeds for them.

[Fife-Hibee]

That was a certainty, and one of the first points I raised when, after the Brexit vote result, May said that any Scottish Indyref would have to wait until after Brexit.

Clever statement from May. As she knows herself that Brexit won't be done and dusted for about a hundred years.

[lord bunberry]

Looks like the Scottish fisheries are about to be sold down the river without the fishing rods. My heart bleeds for them.
:agree: It was always likely to happen. They got into bed with the brexiteers and the tories and they’re about to realise that they were pawns in a game they won’t win.

[Fife-Hibee]

Listening to TM speak now, tell me again how she wasn't a brexiter? :rolleyes:

[Callum_62]

Listening to TM speak now, tell me again how she wasn't a brexiter? :rolleyes:

Didnt she side with remain during the eu ref?


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[stoneyburn hibs]

Looks like the Scottish fisheries are about to be sold down the river without the fishing rods. My heart bleeds for them.

That'll bring quite a number over to the Yes side should it happen.

[Fife-Hibee]

Didnt she side with remain during the eu ref?


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As I recall she was kinda "meh". Because being "meh" was the best way for her to become PM.

[JeMeSouviens]

The nation is fed up to the back teeth with this business. If the MPs have half an ear for what their constituents are feeling they'll back this deal in the House and set about making the best of things.
Fat chance of that I suppose.

Agree on the bold but by far the quickest way to be shot of it is to cancel it altogether - tbh I wouldn't even bother with a 2nd ref, parliament should have the balls to say this is pish and revoke Art 50.

If the withdrawal agreement passes we go straight into many years of wrangling* about the future relationship.


* mostly internal to the Tory party.

[stoneyburn hibs]

As I recall she was kinda "meh". Because being "meh" was the best way for her to become PM.

She was definitely remain, a speech at Goldman Sachs, an interview with Andrew Marr, etc etc.

[Fife-Hibee]

She was definitely remain, a speech at Goldman Sachs, an interview with Andrew Marr, etc etc.

I watched the speech and I heard what she said. I also paid attention to how she was saying it. She wasn't exactly calling herself a remainer with any real enthusiasm.

She was a brexiter saying whatever she needed to say to get into Number 10. Just listen to her rhetoric now about ending free movement. She couldn't be anymore delighted.

[stoneyburn hibs]

I watched the speech and I heard what she said. I also paid attention to how she was saying it. She wasn't exactly calling herself a remainer with any real enthusiasm.

She was a brexiter saying whatever she needed to say to get into Number 10. Just listen to her rhetoric now about ending free movement. She couldn't be anymore delighted.

Self serving cow.

[Just Jimmy]

Self serving cow.her performance in destroying the police and criminal justice system during her time as home Secretary, should have ensured alone, that she was hounded out of public office.

she's an evil witch.

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[GlesgaeHibby]

Government steamrollers another of Mundells red lines and he still has the brass neck to soldier on trousering a ministerial wage.

[Hibrandenburg]

Government steamrollers another of Mundells red lines and he still has the brass neck to soldier on trousering a ministerial wage.

Thought he'd resigned. :wink:

[stoneyburn hibs]

Mundell just been interviewed on c4 , his red lines being questioned. Contradicting everything that he said himself in the past. The squirming wee rat should do the honourable thing.

[BroxburnHibee]

Mundell just been interviewed on c4 , his red lines being questioned. Contradicting everything that he said himself in the past. The squirming wee rat should do the honourable thing.

He has no honour. Just the same as his boss can't give up the gravy train.

[G B Young]

The nation is fed up to the back teeth with this business. If the MPs have half an ear for what their constituents are feeling they'll back this deal in the House and set about making the best of things.
Fat chance of that I suppose.

Spot on. The real negotiations don't begin until after we leave the EU in March so let's just b****y well get this bit over with. May has done a decent job getting such a thankless piece of legislation to the finish line so it's time for the posturing, self-serving whinging from her opponents to end. Labour have proved themselves utterly incapable of coming up with viable alternative, with Corbyn's bleating about their supposed 'six tests' especially pitiful given that, when questioned, he couldn't even list those tests accurately! As for those claiming that the "will of the people has now changed", jeez, what a ridiculous argument. I voted remain, but those smug metropolitans who keep pushing for a so-called People's Vote have made me want Brexit done and dusted asap. Their London march was memorably described as "the longest Waitrose queue in history."

[Hibbyradge]

Spot on. The real negotiations don't begin until after we leave the EU in March so let's just b****y well get this bit over with. May has done a decent job getting such a thankless piece of legislation to the finish line so it's time for the posturing, self-serving whinging from her opponents to end. Labour have proved themselves utterly incapable of coming up with viable alternative, with Corbyn's bleating about their supposed 'six tests' especially pitiful given that, when questioned, he couldn't even list those tests accurately! As for those claiming that the "will of the people has now changed", jeez, what a ridiculous argument. I voted remain, but those smug metropolitans who keep pushing for a so-called People's Vote have made me want Brexit done and dusted asap. Their London march was memorably described as "the longest Waitrose queue in history."

So someone's description of a march has made you want the country to go unprepared into an uncertain future which the majority of economists and business people advise against?

[JeMeSouviens]

Spot on. The real negotiations don't begin until after we leave the EU in March so let's just b****y well get this bit over with. May has done a decent job getting such a thankless piece of legislation to the finish line so it's time for the posturing, self-serving whinging from her opponents to end. Labour have proved themselves utterly incapable of coming up with viable alternative, with Corbyn's bleating about their supposed 'six tests' especially pitiful given that, when questioned, he couldn't even list those tests accurately! As for those claiming that the "will of the people has now changed", jeez, what a ridiculous argument. I voted remain, but those smug metropolitans who keep pushing for a so-called People's Vote have made me want Brexit done and dusted asap. Their London march was memorably described as "the longest Waitrose queue in history."

Sneer all you like, at least those folk got off their arse and didn’t just let this cluster**** proceed without registering their opposition.

[Fife-Hibee]

So someone's description of a march has made you want the country to go unprepared into an uncertain future which the majority of economists and business people advise against?

Has bought the "just get on with it" rhetoric, hook, line and sinker. While failing to understand that there is zero clarity on what we're "getting on with". The purpose of legislation is to legislate. This document doesn't legislate anything. The wording is highly suspicious and leaves everything open to interpretation.

[Hibernia&Alba]

I still believe it will be anti-democratic to deny the people of the UK a vote on May's deal. The decision to leave has been taken, yes, but what about the terms of our leaving? Politicians on both sides of Brexit should have signed up to such a promise before the Brexit vote, and certainly since.

Having been consulted on continued membership, we should now be consulted on whether the agreement satisfies our expectations. After all, various visions of the post Brexit arrangements were discussed in the Brexit referendum, but none was agreed upon. The government can't simply negotiate any deal then say 'there's your Brexit'. If the government's deal is rejected, it's then further negotiation or leave with no deal. This will probably be the result anyway, as it seems likely Westminster will defeat the deal, but that isn't the point here.

[RyeSloan]

I still believe it will be anti-democratic to deny the people of the UK a vote on May's deal. The decision to leave has been taken, yes, but what about the terms of our leaving? Politicians on both sides of Brexit should have signed up to such a promise before the Brexit vote, and certainly since.

Having been consulted on continued membership, we should now be consulted on whether the agreement satisfies our expectations. After all, various visions of the post Brexit arrangements were discussed in the Brexit referendum, but none was agreed upon. The government can't simply negotiate any deal then say 'there's your Brexit'. If the government's deal is rejected, it's then further negotiation or leave with no deal. This will probably be the result anyway, as it seems likely Westminster will defeat the deal, but that isn't the point here.

You mean in the same way we all got a vote every time the terms changed when we were in the EU like fundamental changes brought about by Maastricht, Nice, EU enlargements, the European constitution, Lisbon etc?


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[Callum_62]

You mean in the same way we all got a vote every time the terms changed when we were in the EU like fundamental changes brought about by Maastricht, Nice, EU enlargements, the European constitution, Lisbon etc?


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How many of them did our governments disagree with?

There seems to be a growing trend of “this deal is worse than staying in the EU”

As opposed to “this deal is better than a no deal”

infact talk of a no deal seems to be much less these days


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[ronaldo7]

Mundell just been interviewed on c4 , his red lines being questioned. Contradicting everything that he said himself in the past. The squirming wee rat should do the honourable thing.

Every red line he put down, Theresa has driven a coach and horses through. Never in my time has there been a more inept, secretary of state "for" Scotland.

Typical Tory sleezeball.

[RyeSloan]

How many of them did our governments disagree with?

There seems to be a growing trend of “this deal is worse than staying in the EU”

As opposed to “this deal is better than a no deal”

infact talk of a no deal seems to be much less these days


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The point I was responding to was it being ‘undemocratic in not giving the people a vote on the deal’

So whether our government agreed with Maastricht or whatever is beside the point I was asking where the people’s vote was when our relationship with the EU or the EU itself was fundamentally changed.

Which is of course one of the roots of the whole Brexit referendum. From the vote in ‘75 there had been no specific exercise of democracy around Britain and the EU and it’s massive evolution from that point.

It seems to me therefore that plenty of people seem to have happily accepted the government could and did act on their behalf when continuing to deepen and widen the relationship without a ‘people’s vote’ as they happened to agree with that direction but have rapidly done a 180 on that position now the move is the opposite way, despite a plebiscite approving the leaving of the union.

[JeMeSouviens]

The point I was responding to was it being ‘undemocratic in not giving the people a vote on the deal’

So whether our government agreed with Maastricht or whatever is beside the point I was asking where the people’s vote was when our relationship with the EU or the EU itself was fundamentally changed.

Which is of course one of the roots of the whole Brexit referendum. From the vote in ‘75 there had been no specific exercise of democracy around Britain and the EU and it’s massive evolution from that point.

It seems to me therefore that plenty of people seem to have happily accepted the government could and did act on their behalf when continuing to deepen and widen the relationship without a ‘people’s vote’ as they happened to agree with that direction but have rapidly done a 180 on that position now the move is the opposite way, despite a plebiscite approving the leaving of the union.

Hmmm. The thing is we've no idea if the public would've supported Maastricht, Lisbon, etc, etc or not (I guess not but ...).

Otoh, we do know that 48% of people accepted the EU as it is. 52% wanted to leave but that spread across all possible leave options. The 48% (assuming we still count) are overwhelmingly likely to support a soft Brexit if we have to have one at all. So to say "no deal" enjoys democratic support means inferring that 50/52 of Leave voters want the most extreme hard Brexit possible. Seems unlikely, certainly should be tested by a further vote, imo.

[Moulin Yarns]

The point I was responding to was it being ‘undemocratic in not giving the people a vote on the deal’

So whether our government agreed with Maastricht or whatever is beside the point I was asking where the people’s vote was when our relationship with the EU or the EU itself was fundamentally changed.

Which is of course one of the roots of the whole Brexit referendum. From the vote in ‘75 there had been no specific exercise of democracy around Britain and the EU and it’s massive evolution from that point.

It seems to me therefore that plenty of people seem to have happily accepted the government could and did act on their behalf when continuing to deepen and widen the relationship without a ‘people’s vote’ as they happened to agree with that direction but have rapidly done a 180 on that position now the move is the opposite way, despite a plebiscite approving the leaving of the union.

It could be argued that in each of the treaties you mention the Government was acting in the interest of the UK and the EU, in the current situation it is patently acting against the best interests for the UK and the EU. Let's be clear, the EU don't want the UK to leave, and it is becoming clearer that a majority is building amongst the population of the UK don't want to leave, so it makes sense, again for the best interests of the UK and the EU, that a people's vote on the final 'deal' is held before March 2019, and this time it should not just be advisory but be binding to prevent these sort of arguments continuing.

[McSwanky]

Hmmm. The thing is we've no idea if the public would've supported Maastricht, Lisbon, etc, etc or not (I guess not but ...).

Otoh, we do know that 48% of people accepted the EU as it is. 52% wanted to leave but that spread across all possible leave options. The 48% (assuming we still count) are overwhelmingly likely to support a soft Brexit if we have to have one at all. So to say "no deal" enjoys democratic support means inferring that 50/52 of Leave voters want the most extreme hard Brexit possible. Seems unlikely, certainly should be tested by a further vote, imo.

...we also have to remember that, although there was a very high turnout for the referendum (72% I think???), there were a significant number of eligible people who, for whatever reason, didn't vote at all.

So in my mind that makes it:

34.5% voted remain
37.5% voted leave
28% didn't vote

So I agree a second vote once we actually have some detail is not a breach of the will of the British public at all.

[RyeSloan]

Hmmm. The thing is we've no idea if the public would've supported Maastricht, Lisbon, etc, etc or not (I guess not but ...).

Otoh, we do know that 48% of people accepted the EU as it is. 52% wanted to leave but that spread across all possible leave options. The 48% (assuming we still count) are overwhelmingly likely to support a soft Brexit if we have to have one at all. So to say "no deal" enjoys democratic support means inferring that 50/52 of Leave voters want the most extreme hard Brexit possible. Seems unlikely, certainly should be tested by a further vote, imo.

But I clearly recall during the Brexit vote that the remainders were very clear that a vote to stay was a vote to stay in a ‘reformed EU’.

There was of course no clarity on what that reform would have been (barring Cameron’s tiny wee list) or was there any demands that when they were agreed that there would need to be a people’s vote on it.

No doubt some of the demands for a second vote are genuine but at the same time that doesn’t stop me finding them somewhat disingenuous at the same time!

[Moulin Yarns]

But I clearly recall during the Brexit vote that the remainders were very clear that a vote to stay was a vote to stay in a ‘reformed EU’.

There was of course no clarity on what that reform would have been (barring Cameron’s tiny wee list) or was there any demands that when they were agreed that there would need to be a people’s vote on it.

No doubt some of the demands for a second vote are genuine but at the same time that doesn’t stop me finding them somewhat disingenuous at the same time!

If you want to be positive for a change, you will still be able to vote for leaving the EU, whatever the deal is, but you might want to look at this first.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-live-latest-update-theresa-may-deal-dominic-raab-eu-council-summit-brussels-a8648166.html



Leading Brexiteers admit staying in EU better than deal to leave



To reform the EU you need to be in it. Leaving the EU means no opportunity to reform it.

[JeMeSouviens]

But I clearly recall during the Brexit vote that the remainders were very clear that a vote to stay was a vote to stay in a ‘reformed EU’.

There was of course no clarity on what that reform would have been (barring Cameron’s tiny wee list) or was there any demands that when they were agreed that there would need to be a people’s vote on it.

No doubt some of the demands for a second vote are genuine but at the same time that doesn’t stop me finding them somewhat disingenuous at the same time!

I (genuinely) don't remember that. I thought it was Cameron's puny package and that was that? I imagine he cost Remain quite a lot of votes with that little charade. In fact given Cameron's years of sceptical rhetoric and Corbyn's tepid support, it was a miracle Remain managed as much as 48!

[RyeSloan]

I (genuinely) don't remember that. I thought it was Cameron's puny package and that was that? I imagine he cost Remain quite a lot of votes with that little charade. In fact given Cameron's years of sceptical rhetoric and Corbyn's tepid support, it was a miracle Remain managed as much as 48!

Well the EU really didn’t help Cameron with his wee list as I don’t think they took the threat seriously and as for Corbyn, well we all know he wants Brexit more than the Maybot!

It really is a strange old world sometimes...

[RyeSloan]

If you want to be positive for a change, you will still be able to vote for leaving the EU, whatever the deal is, but you might want to look at this first.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-live-latest-update-theresa-may-deal-dominic-raab-eu-council-summit-brussels-a8648166.html




To reform the EU you need to be in it. Leaving the EU means no opportunity to reform it.

The Indy isn’t the most Indy when it comes to Brexit but I take your point.

The fact remains though that any reform of the EU was never going to be given a U.K. wide public vote as it never had previously.

So the position of ‘we stay in and reform and change but people will just have to accept what the politicos decide’ and ‘we leave but the people must have a say in accepting what the politicos change or not’ are still not fully reconcilable to my mind.

But hey ho I assume most people will have got that point by now so I’ll leave it there and get some work done instead [emoji12]

[JeMeSouviens]

The Indy isn’t the most Indy when it comes to Brexit but I take your point.

The fact remains though that any reform of the EU was never going to be given a U.K. wide public vote as it never had previously.

So the position of ‘we stay in and reform and change but people will just have to accept what the politicos decide’ and ‘we leave but the people must have a say in accepting what the politicos change or not’ are still not fully reconcilable to my mind.

But hey ho I assume most people will have got that point by now so I’ll leave it there and get some work done instead [emoji12]

I take your point but I think the spectrum of Norway+CU to no deal is much, much wider than that of current EU to limits of possible reformed EU (which tbh, I doubt is very wide at all).

[RyeSloan]

I take your point but I think the spectrum of Norway+CU to no deal is much, much wider than that of current EU to limits of possible reformed EU (which tbh, I doubt is very wide at all).

Yeah but from common market to the EU of today is pretty darn wide...all without a people’s vote!

Anyway as I said work to do! [emoji12]


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[Future17]

I (genuinely) don't remember that. I thought it was Cameron's puny package and that was that? I imagine he cost Remain quite a lot of votes with that little charade. In fact given Cameron's years of sceptical rhetoric and Corbyn's tepid support, it was a miracle Remain managed as much as 48!

Can't help thinking one of your previous posts would be appropriate here...


Sheesh, pearls before swine.

[G B Young]

Has bought the "just get on with it" rhetoric, hook, line and sinker. While failing to understand that there is zero clarity on what we're "getting on with". The purpose of legislation is to legislate. This document doesn't legislate anything. The wording is highly suspicious and leaves everything open to interpretation.

I don't think I've failed to understand the lack of clarity. It's clear that much work still needs to be done. However, with a transition period of nearly two years (and I'd wager longer) due to follow our exit from the EU we're a long, long way from when the new post-Brexit regulations actually begin. It's only during that period that we'll see the details of the new relationship begin to emerge so quite how anyone thinks the PM was ever going to return from Brussels this week clutching a deal to please everyone is beyond me. She's quite right to have come to an agreement which allows for plenty of wiggle room so yes, let's just get on with it.

[Just Alf]

Hmmm. The thing is we've no idea if the public would've supported Maastricht, Lisbon, etc, etc or not (I guess not but ...).

Otoh, we do know that 48% of people accepted the EU as it is. 52% wanted to leave but that spread across all possible leave options. The 48% (assuming we still count) are overwhelmingly likely to support a soft Brexit if we have to have one at all. So to say "no deal" enjoys democratic support means inferring that 50/52 of Leave voters want the most extreme hard Brexit possible. Seems unlikely, certainly should be tested by a further vote, imo.Of all the Leavers I've spoken to through work etc (I work down south a few times a month) I've not met a single one that's in employment that wants a hard Brexit, not one.

I have met a few Leavers who are now stayers though



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[Hibernia&Alba]

I don't think I've failed to understand the lack of clarity. It's clear that much work still needs to be done. However, with a transition period of nearly two years (and I'd wager longer) due to follow our exit from the EU we're a long, long way from when the new post-Brexit regulations actually begin. It's only during that period that we'll see the details of the new relationship begin to emerge so quite how anyone thinks the PM was ever going to return from Brussels this week clutching a deal to please everyone is beyond me. She's quite right to have come to an agreement which allows for plenty of wiggle room so yes, let's just get on with it.

But it seems certain we won't just 'get on with it', as May's agreement looks doomed to defeat in parliament, then all bets are off.

[Bristolhibby]

It could be argued that in each of the treaties you mention the Government was acting in the interest of the UK and the EU, in the current situation it is patently acting against the best interests for the UK and the EU. Let's be clear, the EU don't want the UK to leave, and it is becoming clearer that a majority is building amongst the population of the UK don't want to leave, so it makes sense, again for the best interests of the UK and the EU, that a people's vote on the final 'deal' is held before March 2019, and this time it should not just be advisory but be binding to prevent these sort of arguments continuing.

Or Parlimentarians should just do their job and Govern for what they believe is best for the country. That doesn’t include driving off a cliff edge to a No Deal Brexit on with a narrowly won ADVISORY vote.

I’d like to see the vast majority of MPs to stand up to their fringes and say enough is enough, work across the house and tell the population (from both Labour and Conservative benches (also SNP, Lib Dems, Greens, etc) that we are united on this issue.

Sure the right of the stories will probably start their own pseudo UKIP like party, and there may be a few casualties in the Labour North, but it can be done.

J

[RyeSloan]

But it seems certain we won't just 'get on with it', as May's agreement looks doomed to defeat in parliament, then all bets are off.

Or more likely a quick revision of a couple of the key contentious points then a return to parliament with a take it or its a cliff edge exit routine...

After which the numbers will eventually fall in line and we might finally all be able to move on somewhat.

Plenty more bickering and posturing and pontificating from all sides before we get to that stage though I’m sure.

[Hibernia&Alba]

Or more likely a quick revision of a couple of the key contentious points then a return to parliament with a take it or its a cliff edge exit routine...

After which the numbers will eventually fall in line and we might finally all be able to move on somewhat.

Plenty more bickering and posturing and pontificating from all sides before we get to that stage though I’m sure.
We leave next March, and there's no incentive for the EU to make further compromises. if May's agreement is voted down at Westminster, no deal Brexit looms very large.

[RyeSloan]

We leave next March, and there's no incentive for the EU to make further compromises. if May's agreement is voted down at Westminster, no deal Brexit looms very large.

Yeah maybe. I ain’t gonna pretend I have a crystal ball that’s for sure.

My personal bet has been on the mother of all fudges from the start tho and that horse is still well up with the pack!

[makaveli1875]

Hmmm. The thing is we've no idea if the public would've supported Maastricht, Lisbon, etc, etc or not (I guess not but ...).

Otoh, we do know that 48% of people accepted the EU as it is. 52% wanted to leave but that spread across all possible leave options. The 48% (assuming we still count) are overwhelmingly likely to support a soft Brexit if we have to have one at all. So to say "no deal" enjoys democratic support means inferring that 50/52 of Leave voters want the most extreme hard Brexit possible. Seems unlikely, certainly should be tested by a further vote, imo.

come on now . so would you be happy in any indyref2 for the no vote to be taken as 1 big unanimous voice to stay in the uk and the yes vote split between what type of independence people want ?

[Bristolhibby]

come on now . so would you be happy in any indyref2 for the no vote to be taken as 1 big unanimous voice to stay in the uk and the yes vote split between what type of independence people want ?

I do genuinely believe that’s different. It was widely sold at the time of a number of different leave options.

Norway, Switzerland, Hard Brexit, and some fudge.
Then there was always people who just wanted to watch Rome burn, the disaffected voter who was just lashing out.

J

[ronaldo7]

It seems that all sorts of things can be added to the political statement these days. Treeza has just capitulated on Gibraltar, and the Spanish gov have done her up like a melon.

It's looking like this deal will take a few more knighthoods to make it through parliament.

[Fife-Hibee]

https://i.ibb.co/CsZX9jK/failire.png

Imagine being in a relationship with a total control freak who forces you to break ties with family and friends as a cost for staying with them and being told by them that you would only cause further division by leaving them.

Well you don't have to imagine it. That's the relationship Scotland has with the UK.

[makaveli1875]

I do genuinely believe that’s different. It was widely sold at the time of a number of different leave options.

Norway, Switzerland, Hard Brexit, and some fudge.
Then there was always people who just wanted to watch Rome burn, the disaffected voter who was just lashing out.

J

It was sold as leave or remain just as indyref was sold as yes or no . Hard brexit was never mentioned until after the results came in

[Hibbyradge]

It was sold as leave or remain just as indyref was sold as yes or no . Hard brexit was never mentioned until after the results came in

:agree:

Brexit means Brexit.

[Bristolhibby]

It was sold as leave or remain just as indyref was sold as yes or no . Hard brexit was never mentioned until after the results came in

That’s my point, there’s a number of ways that Brexit could be implemented. Hard is the worst, Norway, least worst, Mays deal, sort of in between.

Nothing as good as we currently enjoy.

Could all be off anyway.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-void-high-court-ruling-arron-banks-investigation-when-december-christmas-a8649001.html

[G B Young]

Imagine being in a relationship with a total control freak who forces you to break ties with family and friends as a cost for staying with them and being told by them that you would only cause further division by leaving them.

Well you don't have to imagine it. That's the relationship Scotland has with the UK.

Alternatively, imagine being governed by a political party which was granted its wish to test the will of the Scottish electorate to separate from the UK (while acknowledging that the vote would be a once in a generation event) only to kick off on a four-year tantrum when the vote didn't go its way. A tantrum so wilful that even the bloody nose they received at the 2017 general election in the wake of their attempts to kick-start another independence campaign (based on the misguided notion that Brexit had played into their lap) failed to bring it to a halt.

The UK didn't force me to do anything. Its government simply granted Scotland a vote on independence, which I, along with 55.3% of the electorate voted against. If there are family ties and friendships that remain broken then that's down to the enduring bitterness on the part of the minority who didn't get what they hoped for from the vote - a particularly sad and enduring legacy of that time.

[Callum_62]

Alternatively, imagine being governed by a political party which was granted its wish to test the will of the Scottish electorate to separate from the UK (while acknowledging that the vote would be a once in a generation event)

Pending a material change in circumstances

Which no one can deny BREXIT is



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[G B Young]

Pending a material change in circumstances

Which no one can deny BREXIT is



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

And as I alluded to, the SNP duly launched an new independence referendum bill shortly after the Brexit vote in the misguided assumption that because a majority of Scots had voted remain they would therefore vote for independence if offered it again. The loss of more than 20 SNP Westminster seats (and nearly half a million votes) at the 2017 general election saw the FM hastily 'reset' her plans.

[weecounty hibby]

And as I alluded to, the SNP duly launched an new independence referendum bill shortly after the Brexit vote in the misguided assumption that because a majority of Scots had voted remain they would therefore vote for independence if offered it again. The loss of more than 20 SNP Westminster seats (and nearly half a million votes) at the 2017 general election saw the FM hastily 'reset' her plans.
And still returned 39 MPs something that would have been seen as a miracle a few years previous. Brexit was a major game changer for indyref2 and to argue otherwise is silly. More people voted to remain in the EU than voted to remain in the UK. I know that unfortunately that doesn't necessarily mean they would vote for independence but even you must see that totally changed things within the UK.

[James310]

So when is Nicola Sturgeon and her ministers, MSPs and MPs going to actually do something about it instead of tweeting about it and liking tweets about it. Actions speak louder than tweets.

[cabbageandribs1875]

an apology to Scotland in Song, and a request for help from us :greengrin


https://www.facebook.com/veryBrexitproblems/videos/788645794611275/

[steakbake]

And as I alluded to, the SNP duly launched an new independence referendum bill shortly after the Brexit vote in the misguided assumption that because a majority of Scots had voted remain they would therefore vote for independence if offered it again. The loss of more than 20 SNP Westminster seats (and nearly half a million votes) at the 2017 general election saw the FM hastily 'reset' her plans.

Still won more seats than all the others put together. (Despite Ruth apparently winning the election...)

[grunt]

Still won more seats than all the others put together. (Despite Ruth apparently winning the election...)

Indeed. This is "the bloody nose they received at the 2017 general election".

[Fife-Hibee]

Alternatively, imagine being governed by a political party which was granted its wish to test the will of the Scottish electorate to separate from the UK (while acknowledging that the vote would be a once in a generation event) only to kick off on a four-year tantrum when the vote didn't go its way. A tantrum so wilful that even the bloody nose they received at the 2017 general election in the wake of their attempts to kick-start another independence campaign (based on the misguided notion that Brexit had played into their lap) failed to bring it to a halt.

The UK didn't force me to do anything. Its government simply granted Scotland a vote on independence, which I, along with 55.3% of the electorate voted against. If there are family ties and friendships that remain broken then that's down to the enduring bitterness on the part of the minority who didn't get what they hoped for from the vote - a particularly sad and enduring legacy of that time.

If they recieved a bloody nose at the general election why did they still manage to return a majority? With a mandate in their manifesto to hold another independence referendum if the circumstances merited it?

You're living in a soap bubble if you think what we're witnessing right now is democracy in action. The UK government is making it up as they see fit while locking the Scottish Government and the UK population in general out of any input.

It's almost as if..... a hard brexit was planned all along. Surely not?

[Fife-Hibee]

So when is Nicola Sturgeon and her ministers, MSPs and MPs going to actually do something about it instead of tweeting about it and liking tweets about it. Actions speak louder than tweets.

Do what about it?

In this wonderful "democracy" that we call the UK. The Scottish Government can't do anything. They have to wait to be given permission by the very Government they're trying to get away from.

[Bristolhibby]

So when is Nicola Sturgeon and her ministers, MSPs and MPs going to actually do something about it instead of tweeting about it and liking tweets about it. Actions speak louder than tweets.

You do know the Exit Bill hasn’t been put before Parliament yet?

I’m sure they will vote it down like most of the other MPs.

J

[Hibernia&Alba]

You do know the Exit Bill hasn’t been put before Parliament yet?

I’m sure they will vote it down like most of the other MPs.

J

It will be voted down; even the DUP aren't having it. When is the vote due?

[Glory Lurker]

If it is voted down, is a general election a near certainty or will DUP come back in to the fold to avoid the risk (albeit a very remote one) of Corbyn ending up PM?

I do wonder too if pro-brexit Labour MPs will vote for the deal, or abstain, in enough numbers that it gets through.

More generally, my heart is beginning to break as this all becomes more and more real. There does still seem to be reasons to think brexit might not happen, but I never thought we would even get this far.

[Hibernia&Alba]

If it is voted down, is a general election a near certainty or will DUP come back in to the fold to avoid the risk (albeit a very remote one) of Corbyn ending up PM?

I do wonder too if pro-brexit Labour MPs will vote for the deal, or abstain, in enough numbers that it gets through.

More generally, my heart is beginning to break as this all becomes more and more real. There does still seem to be reasons to think brexit might not happen, but I never thought we would even get this far.

The government would need to lose of vote of no confidence in the Commons, for a general election to be forced. I'm sure the DUP would support the government to prop up the Tories, in that situation.

[Fife-Hibee]

Brexit IS happening. It was the plan all along. Those desperately trying to convince themselves that some miracle in the making is going to stop it from occuring are just in denial about the whole situation. The good news is, this doesn't have to be the direction that Scotland goes in, if we would just make a bloody stand for once instead of cowering to our orwellian overlords, our future would look a hell of a lot less bleak.

[Hibernia&Alba]

https://youtu.be/s37N8qqtYQc

[G B Young]

So when is Nicola Sturgeon and her ministers, MSPs and MPs going to actually do something about it instead of tweeting about it and liking tweets about it. Actions speak louder than tweets.

Having had her fingers burned by jumping the gun on indyref2 after the 2016 Brexit vote she knows the public appetite for yet another attempt is not there so she is biding her time to see how Brexit plays out. There's also the Alex Salmond court action (along with the associated police investigation) to bear in mind. That kicks off in January and has the potential to impact on the public perception of the SNP so it would be unwise to rush things again. In the meantime, as you say, the odd derogatory tweet about the UK government will suffice.

[Callum_62]

In the meantime, as you say, the odd derogatory tweet about the UK government will suffice.

Do you think Scotland has been listened to during the BREXIT talks?



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[G B Young]

If they recieved a bloody nose at the general election why did they still manage to return a majority? With a mandate in their manifesto to hold another independence referendum if the circumstances merited it?

You're living in a soap bubble if you think what we're witnessing right now is democracy in action. The UK government is making it up as they see fit while locking the Scottish Government and the UK population in general out of any input.

It's almost as if..... a hard brexit was planned all along. Surely not?

The SNP won the most seats in Scotland but they were a long way from winning a majority of the vote. IIRC they won well under 40% - nothing like the numbers they would have been banking on to justify calls for a second referendum. That's the main reason Sturgeon has parked that for now.

I completely agree with you that Brexit constituted a material change in circumstances but on current evidence it hasn't diluted the majority preference of the Scottish electorate to remain part of the UK, disappointing as that must be for the SNP. Our devolved parliament's powers don't extend to negotiating Brexit terms and no amount of symbolic votes at Holyrood will change that. I get why that's frustrating for those who back independence but under the current framework there's nothing undemocratic about it.

[G B Young]

Do you think Scotland has been listened to during the BREXIT talks?



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I don't think there is anything, within reason, that the UK Government could do regarding Brexit that would meet with the approval of our SNP-led government, whose default position is to decry everything about it as a disaster for Scotland. It was that intransigence which saw their co-ordinated oppositon with the Welsh government over the hypothetical 'power grab' saga fall apart.

Granted, May would be unwise not to listen to Ruth Davidson, given the latter's transformation of Tory fortunes in Scotland, and I'd be surprised if they weren't in contact during the latter's maternity leave.

[CropleyWasGod]

Brexit IS happening. It was the plan all along. Those desperately trying to convince themselves that some miracle in the making is going to stop it from occuring are just in denial about the whole situation. The good news is, this doesn't have to be the direction that Scotland goes in, if we would just make a bloody stand for once instead of cowering to our orwellian overlords, our future would look a hell of a lot less bleak.

Given that those "Orwellian overlords" are our biggest trading partner, how would you get over that fact in a post-Indy, EU-member, Scotland?

[Mr Grieves]

I don't think there is anything, within reason, that the UK Government could do regarding Brexit that would meet with the approval of our SNP-led government, whose default position is to decry everything about it as a disaster for Scotland. It was that intransigence which saw their co-ordinated oppositon with the Welsh government over the hypothetical 'power grab' saga fall apart.

Granted, May would be unwise not to listen to Ruth Davidson, given the latter's transformation of Tory fortunes in Scotland, and I'd be surprised if they weren't in contact during the latter's maternity leave.

The Scottish Parliament voted against the withdrawal agreement and has voted in support of a people's vote so it's not just the SNP that disapprove of the current situation.

[degenerated]

Given that those "Orwellian overlords" are our biggest trading partner, how would you get over that fact in a post-Indy, EU-member, Scotland?

Based on May's deal we would have the same trading agreement with England that the rest of the EU has, no? Over and above that we would have access to all the trading agreements that the EU has with everyone else that wouldn't have if we stayed in the UK.

[CropleyWasGod]

Based on May's deal we would have the same trading agreement with England that the rest of the EU has, no? Over and above that we would have access to all the trading agreements that the EU has with everyone else that wouldn't have if we stayed in the UK.

Whis is/will be what, though? :greengrin

I'm not disagreeing with you. I'm making the point that, in Indyref 2, the No side will be hammering this particular point, and the Yes side have to be clear about their answer, otherwise (again) the "devil we know" will win.

I would also throw in the likelihood of a hard border between Scotland and England, and how the Yes side are going to win over doubters in light of that.

[degenerated]

Whis is/will be what, though? :greengrin

I'm not disagreeing with you. I'm making the point that, in Indyref 2, the No side will be hammering this particular point, and the Yes side have to be clear about their answer, otherwise (again) the "devil we know" will win.

I would also throw in the likelihood of a hard border between Scotland and England, and how the Yes side are going to win over doubters in light of that.The border issue can be squared off by the fact that theres not going to be one in ireland therefore the same principle can apply equally here.


Its an argument that could well backfire on the unionists as it would show them to be spiteful.

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[lord bunberry]

I’ve got no problem with a hard border between Scotland and England. If they don’t want a hard border, don’t leave the EU.

[RyeSloan]

Whis is/will be what, though? :greengrin

I'm not disagreeing with you. I'm making the point that, in Indyref 2, the No side will be hammering this particular point, and the Yes side have to be clear about their answer, otherwise (again) the "devil we know" will win.

I would also throw in the likelihood of a hard border between Scotland and England, and how the Yes side are going to win over doubters in light of that.

Just one of many many questions an Indy Scotland would need to answer.

The good news is though that if Brexit has proven anything its that the SNP are very vocal supporters of a second referendum on the ‘deal’ so any Indy Ref2 will need to come with a promise of Indy Ref3 to ratify the ‘deal’.

Really cannae wait for all that to kick off...

[CropleyWasGod]

I’ve got no problem with a hard border between Scotland and England. If they don’t want a hard border, don’t leave the EU.

The issue, though, is convincing IndyRef voters that a hard border is not a problem. For many, particularly cross-border commuters, it will be.

[James310]

I’ve got no problem with a hard border between Scotland and England. If they don’t want a hard border, don’t leave the EU.

Why would you have no problem having a hard border with our biggest trading partner, that would be a costly and administrative nightmare making our goods more expensive and less appealing.

[Callum_62]

If Ireland has no hard border absolutely no need for an indy Scotland to have one


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[Tornadoes70]

Why would you have no problem having a hard border with our biggest trading partner, that would be a costly and administrative nightmare making our goods more expensive and less appealing.

Wouldn't be 'our goods' any longer after an indy Scotland and joining the EU as a full member state. The speed rate of integration across the EU will very soon mean there would be no such thing as 'our' good's or 'our' fishing grounds or 'our' armed forces. The EU is fast becoming an overarching powerhouse that will render national governments virtually redundant save for enacting and implementing EU legislation.

[degenerated]

Why would you have no problem having a hard border with our biggest trading partner, that would be a costly and administrative nightmare making our goods more expensive and less appealing.If we look at it from an Keynsian perspective it would create plenty jobs [emoji16]

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[Just Alf]

Just one of many many questions an Indy Scotland would need to answer.

The good news is though that if Brexit has proven anything its that the SNP are very vocal supporters of a second referendum on the ‘deal’ so any Indy Ref2 will need to come with a promise of Indy Ref3 to ratify the ‘deal’.

Really cannae wait for all that to kick off...You're comparing apples a d pears tho? Independence is independence ( :-) ).... Brexit has a few flavours to pick from.

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[Just Alf]

If Ireland has no hard border absolutely no need for an indy Scotland to have one


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Correct, if an iScotland was part of the EU, as an example, then if there wasn't one in Ireland it would be impossible to have one between England and Scotland

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[Tornadoes70]

Correct, if an iScotland was part of the EU, as an example, then if there wasn't one in Ireland it would be impossible to have one between England and Scotland

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We don't have a Good Friday agreement in place and nothing is impossible when it comes to political gamesmanship and what was left of the UK post indy Scotland would have it in their power to erect a hard border if they so wished and to tell an indy Scotland and EU to get stuffed. However, I would surmise in that case they would have to also erect the hard border between the NI and the rest of Ireland as any EU deal would evaporate and the UK in absence of Scotland would be a truly independent entity free from the snp/other and the ever increasing power base that is the EU.

[James310]

You're comparing apples a d pears tho? Independence is independence ( :-) ).... Brexit has a few flavours to pick from.

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But it only became apparent that Brexit had different flavours as the negotiations took shape.
There could be different flavours of Indy after 2 years of negotiations.

At the outset Brexit mean leave the EU but it was more complex than that as we had 40 years of unwinding to do. Indy will mean independence from rest of the UK but we have 300 years of unpicking to do so its not inconceivable that there could be different flavours of that as well.

[Hibernia&Alba]

If Ireland has no hard border absolutely no need for an indy Scotland to have one


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Or we could go the Donald Trump route and build a wall to prevent pro-EU migrants from the south crossing the border. 'They're bringing drugs, they're rapists, and some, I assume, are good people' :greengrin

[Tornadoes70]

Or we could go the Donald Trump route and build a wall to prevent pro-EU migrants from the south crossing the border. 'They're bringing drugs, they're rapists, and some, I assume, are good people' :greengrin

Building a massive wall between us in indy Scotland and the rest of the UK would firstly have to be ratified and agreed upon from those who are strictly in control of the EU - Germany. We would have to seek permission from the controlling powers and carry out their orders.

[lord bunberry]

Why would you have no problem having a hard border with our biggest trading partner, that would be a costly and administrative nightmare making our goods more expensive and less appealing.
They wouldn’t necessarily be our largest trading partner once they’ve left the EU and we’ve rejoined.

[Hibernia&Alba]

Building a massive wall between us in indy Scotland and the rest of the UK would firstly have to be ratified and agreed upon from those who are strictly in control of the EU - Germany. We would have to seek permission from the controlling powers.

Au contraire, The Donald will be the inspiration for the new 'relationship', so who cares about international law and rules? :wink:

Caledonia First.

[Tornadoes70]

Au contraire, The Donald will be the inspiration for the new 'relationship', so who cares about international law and rules? :wink:

Caledonia First.

The Germans do and if we didn't do as they ordered once a member state of the EU they would not be so happy with their little Scotland whose fish will be plundered by all in the EU as they see fit.

:wink:

[Moulin Yarns]

If Ireland has no hard border absolutely no need for an indy Scotland to have one


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Is there to be a hard border between Gibraltar and Spain

[Hibernia&Alba]

The Germans do and if we didn't do as they ordered once a member state of the EU they would not be so happy with their little Scotland whose fish will be plundered by all in the EU as they see fit.

:wink:

Liberal snowflakes, playing by the rules and being all civilised. Trade wars are an essential part of being taken seriously.

[Tornadoes70]

Liberal snowflakes, playing by the rules and being all civilised.Trade wars are an essential part of being taken seriously.

Never seen the Germans ever described as thus before, always a first time i suppose :greengrin

I'm not having a go at Indy supporters or independence. Merely pointing out some inconvenient truths that could easily emerge.

:wink:

[James310]

They wouldn’t necessarily be our largest trading partner once they’ve left the EU and we’ve rejoined.

I would bet they are and will remain so for the long term foreseeable future.

[Fife-Hibee]

Why does the "England is our largest trading partners" myth still continue to do the rounds?

England are not our largest trading partners, the EU is our largest trading partner with England as a part of it. Outside the EU, the trade between Scotland and England will be considerably weaker. Who in England is going to purchase large bulks of stock from Scotland, when they can't export it out into Europe for profit, without trading tarrifs being applied?

[RyeSloan]

You're comparing apples a d pears tho? Independence is independence ( :-) ).... Brexit has a few flavours to pick from.

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Indy is not that different.

How much would the divorce bill be (national debt)

Would we have a hard border and under what auspices would we trade

What legal framework would cover cross border companies/ disputes

What would be the Supreme Court

Would we be free to join the EU asap

How would we split territorial waters

Would there be rUK defense assets (nuclear subs)

What currency would be used (yup that old chestnut)

What rights and access would rUK residents in Scotland have and vice versa

All of the above and much much more would be up for debate in much the same way we have seen similar discussions in the Brexit negotiations.

Indy means Indy as much as Brexit means Brexit.

[James310]

Why does the "England is our largest trading partners" myth still continue to do the rounds?

England are not our largest trading partners, the EU is our largest trading partner with England as a part of it. Outside the EU, the trade between Scotland and England will be considerably weaker. Who in England is going to purchase large bulks of stock from Scotland, when they can't export it out into Europe for profit, without trading tarrifs being applied?

You can dress it up in many ways. How about of all the EU countries England is our biggest trading partner. Does that sound better? (Still makes England our biggest trading partner)

[RyeSloan]

Why does the "England is our largest trading partners" myth still continue to do the rounds?

England are not our largest trading partners, the EU is our largest trading partner with England as a part of it. Outside the EU, the trade between Scotland and England will be considerably weaker. Who in England is going to purchase large bulks of stock from Scotland, when they can't export it out into Europe for profit, without trading tarrifs being applied?

You are wrong.

Scotland exports 4 times as much to rUK as it does the rest of the EU.

Sure some of that may be resold into the EU and some of that trade may lessen after Brexit but as it stands your miles wrong to say it’s a myth.

[Moulin Yarns]

You are wrong.

Scotland exports 4 times as much to rUK as it does the rest of the EU.

Sure some of that may be resold into the EU and some of that trade may lessen after Brexit but as it stands your miles wrong to say it’s a myth.

Try salmon, langoustine, lobster, whisky to mention a few. Something like 80% of each is exported to the EU. A huge amount of our current trade which will be hit by tariff after Brexit unless we allow access to fishing for EU boats.

[The Modfather]

But it only became apparent that Brexit had different flavours as the negotiations took shape.
There could be different flavours of Indy after 2 years of negotiations.

At the outset Brexit mean leave the EU but it was more complex than that as we had 40 years of unwinding to do. Indy will mean independence from rest of the UK but we have 300 years of unpicking to do so its not inconceivable that there could be different flavours of that as well.

Independence means independence. Stick it on the side of a bus and jobs a good ‘un

[Hibernia&Alba]

Independence means independence. Stick it on the side of a bus and jobs a good ‘un

Leave room to advertise the massive boost to the NHS.

[Just Alf]

Indy is not that different.

How much would the divorce bill be (national debt)

Would we have a hard border and under what auspices would we trade

What legal framework would cover cross border companies/ disputes

What would be the Supreme Court

Would we be free to join the EU asap

How would we split territorial waters

Would there be rUK defense assets (nuclear subs)

What currency would be used (yup that old chestnut)

What rights and access would rUK residents in Scotland have and vice versa

All of the above and much much more would be up for debate in much the same way we have seen similar discussions in the Brexit negotiations.

Indy means Indy as much as Brexit means Brexit.

Sometimes you come across so "anything but xxx" in your posts that people can switch off to any decent points you do make, the post above has made me reconsider my rather flippant remark as you actually do have a point here.... I guess for Indy things would certainly need to be clarified prior to a vote or there really should be that 'ratification ' vote.

Some things should be easy, territorial waters for example, follow international law, so basically move the Scotland/England border away from Dundee and align it to Berwick as it used to be.

Scotland has its own court system already, so in effect no real difference, unless iScotland wanted to defer to the European Court (as part of any future membership), but as you say, a lot of food for thought.

[Fife-Hibee]

You can dress it up in many ways. How about of all the EU countries England is our biggest trading partner. Does that sound better? (Still makes England our biggest trading partner)

No it doesn't.


You are wrong.

Scotland exports 4 times as much to rUK as it does the rest of the EU.

Sure some of that may be resold into the EU and some of that trade may lessen after Brexit but as it stands your miles wrong to say it’s a myth.

No i'm not. The vast majority of those exports as another poster pointed out, passes through England, it doesn't stay in England. Without free trade access to other European countries, English firms won't purchase anywhere near the level of stock they currently do from us.

People really need to start using their heads instead of falling for the overly simplistic "4 times as much" soundbite. It's nowhere near as simple as that. Not even close.

[RyeSloan]

No it doesn't.



No i'm not. The vast majority of those exports as another poster pointed out, passes through England, it doesn't stay in England. Without free trade access to other European countries, English firms won't purchase anywhere near the level of stock they currently do from us.

People really need to start using their heads instead of falling for the overly simplistic "4 times as much" soundbite. It's nowhere near as simple as that. Not even close.

Sorry but you appear just to be making that up to suit your narrative. Just repeating it doesn’t make it true.

And how do you know what England will not buy ‘anywhere near as much stock’?

Also you focus too much on physical goods.



To back up my position I proffer this from the Scottish Government’s own website:

What proportion of exports to the rest of the UK are then re-exported internationally?

While undoubtedly some exports to the rest of the UK will be re-exported, including as part of other products, it is not possible to say exactly what this proportion is. However over half of Scottish exports to the rest of the UK are services (such as financial services) and are unlikely to be re-exported abroad. Also, many of the goods exported to the rest of the UK are in sectors where re-exporting is unlikely (utilities, retail and wholesale).


So as stated rUK is Scotland’s biggest market by far and no amount of ‘myth busting’ assumptions and statements changes that fact and nor will Brexit or Indy.

[RyeSloan]

Sometimes you come across so "anything but xxx" in your posts that people can switch off to any decent points you do make, the post above has made me reconsider my rather flippant remark as you actually do have a point here.... I guess for Indy things would certainly need to be clarified prior to a vote or there really should be that 'ratification ' vote.

Some things should be easy, territorial waters for example, follow international law, so basically move the Scotland/England border away from Dundee and align it to Berwick as it used to be.

Scotland has its own court system already, so in effect no real difference, unless iScotland wanted to defer to the European Court (as part of any future membership), but as you say, a lot of food for thought.

Ahh how others perceive you huh! [emoji38]

But I’m glad this time my style didn’t get in the way of the substance and appreciate that you’ve taken the time to take on board what was said....a rare event on here or any other social media platform!

The parallels are pretty clear to me and I’ve watched with interest the SNP’s tactics on Brexit. Remembering of course there was no such offer of a reaffirming vote when Indy 1 was around their position has clearly changed on such things. As such it will be interesting to observe if they carry such gusto for the concept back into the Indy debate.

[Hibbyradge]

I'm pro-independence, but I don't understand the objections to the assertion that Scotland exports more to rUK than it does to the rest of the world. It does.

https://www2.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Economy/Exports/ESSPublication

I also don't understand why Scotland would export to rUK only for them, in turn, to export it to the EU. Why wouldn't Scottish firms export to the EU directly?

[James310]

Sorry but you appear just to be making that up to suit your narrative. Just repeating it doesn’t make it true.

And how do you know what England will not buy ‘anywhere near as much stock’?

Also you focus too much on physical goods.



To back up my position I proffer this from the Scottish Government’s own website:

What proportion of exports to the rest of the UK are then re-exported internationally?

While undoubtedly some exports to the rest of the UK will be re-exported, including as part of other products, it is not possible to say exactly what this proportion is. However over half of Scottish exports to the rest of the UK are services (such as financial services) and are unlikely to be re-exported abroad. Also, many of the goods exported to the rest of the UK are in sectors where re-exporting is unlikely (utilities, retail and wholesale).


So as stated rUK is Scotland’s biggest market by far and no amount of ‘myth busting’ assumptions and statements changes that fact and nor will Brexit or Indy.

Hard to argue with that. It can be dressed up many ways but at end of the day the facts are the facts.

[CropleyWasGod]

No it doesn't.



No i'm not. The vast majority of those exports as another poster pointed out, passes through England, it doesn't stay in England. Without free trade access to other European countries, English firms won't purchase anywhere near the level of stock they currently do from us.

People really need to start using their heads instead of falling for the overly simplistic "4 times as much" soundbite. It's nowhere near as simple as that. Not even close.So, if English firms won't buy nearly as much from us, it's our economy that suffers.

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[Tornadoes70]

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/general-election/brexit-scots-exports-to-uk-massively-greater-than-eu-trade-1-4348225

A quick google search produces some clarity that Scotland's economy does export so much more to the rest of the UK. I suspect its cost effective to supply the rest of the UK market in the main as they are obviously our closest neighbours and a portion and/or surplus of the goods will then be sold on elsewhere. Much in the same way a whole seller supplies businesses and other traders. This is merely my non expert on trade subjectivity.

[Peevemor]

So, if English firms won't buy nearly as much from us, it's our economy that suffers.

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Not necessarily, because if there is European demand for the goods then Scottish firms could export directly.

[James310]

Not necessarily, because if there is European demand for the goods then Scottish firms could export directly.

Would they not be doing that today if there was the demand?

[Slavers]

Would they not be doing that today if there was the demand?

No because of the English!

[lord bunberry]

Would they not be doing that today if there was the demand?
Is it not the case that if exports leave from somewhere like Dover or another English port or airport then they aren’t classed as Scottish exports. I remember reading that a lot of whisky exports are done this way.

[JeMeSouviens]

Is it not the case that if exports leave from somewhere like Dover or another English port or airport then they aren’t classed as Scottish exports. I remember reading that a lot of whisky exports are done this way.

No, it's not. The data is somewhat sketchy but GERS does have best guesses for Scottish export figures. Whisky is easy, because it all comes from us.

On the more general discussion - there is absolutely no point in pro-Indy people refusing to acknowledge or face up to the fact that the Scottish economy is heavily geared to sell things in England. Same goes for Ireland, apart from the peace issue, they have very pragmatic reasons for keeping the UK in the same customs territory.

Independence is much easier in the short term if we reverse Brexit first, but paradoxically much more necessary in the long term if we don't.

[Hibrandenburg]

I'm pro-independence, but I don't understand the objections to the assertion that Scotland exports more to rUK than it does to the rest of the world. It does.

https://www2.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Economy/Exports/ESSPublication

I also don't understand why Scotland would export to rUK only for them, in turn, to export it to the EU. Why wouldn't Scottish firms export to the EU directly?

England gets to play the middle man on some products purely for transport logistical reasons. Most UK exports leave the UK via Dover. I'm not surprised you missed this though as apparently the fact that Dover is so close to the continent is a little known fact. :wink:

[JeMeSouviens]

Theresa May wants a tv debate vs Jeremy Corbyn.

What a non-event that will be if it happens. About the only 2 people in the Commons that agree on Brexit. :wink:

If she really wants a debate it should be May (deal) vs Starmer (Lab deal) vs Rees-Mogg (no deal) vs Sturgeon (SM+CU) vs Umunna (PV).

[Tornadoes70]

Theresa May wants a tv debate vs Jeremy Corbyn.

What a non-event that will be if it happens. About the only 2 people in the Commons that agree on Brexit. :wink:

If she really wants a debate it should be May (deal) vs Starmer (Lab deal) vs Rees-Mogg (no deal) vs Sturgeon (SM+CU) vs Umunna (PV).

We already more or less know what Sturgeon would say - No to any brexit deal and Yes to re joining the EU in the event of an indy Scotland whereby becoming a full member EU state which would mean joining the euro and being fully led and controlled by those who run Europe - Germany.

We should be hearing from the two main party leaders in absence of distraction from those with ulterior motives and agendas.

[JeMeSouviens]

We already more or less know what Sturgeon would say - No to any brexit deal and Yes to re joining the EU in the event of an indy Scotland whereby becoming a full member EU state which would mean joining the euro and being fully led and controlled by those who run Europe - Germany.

We should be hearing from the two main party leaders in absence of distraction from those with ulterior motives and agendas.

It's difficult to know where to start with this pish. :dunno: So I won't. Mon Scottish Labour! :rolleyes:

[Tornadoes70]

It's difficult to know where to start with this pish. :dunno: So I won't. Mon Scottish Labour! :rolleyes:

That's entirely your decision. Can't see any need to resort to going off topic though. No need whatsoever. Its an open forum and all opinions should be respected and treated civilly.

[CropleyWasGod]

We already more or less know what Sturgeon would say - No to any brexit deal and Yes to re joining the EU in the event of an indy Scotland whereby becoming a full member EU state which would mean joining the euro and being fully led and controlled by those who run Europe - Germany.

We should be hearing from the two main party leaders in absence of distraction from those with ulterior motives and agendas.

We also know what May and Corbyn would say, and what their agendas are.

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[Tornadoes70]

We also know what May and Corbyn would say, and what their agendas are.

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Jeremy like myself has long opposed an ever more federalist integrated German led eu that will eventually render national governments virtually mere talking shops.

[CropleyWasGod]

Jeremy like myself has long opposed an ever more federalist integrated German led eu that will eventually render national governments virtually mere talking shops.We know that.

Hence why should he be included in a TV debate?

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[Callum_62]

We already more or less know what Sturgeon would say - No to any brexit deal and Yes to re joining the EU in the event of an indy Scotland whereby becoming a full member EU state which would mean joining the euro and being fully led and controlled by those who run Europe - Germany.

We should be hearing from the two main party leaders in absence of distraction from those with ulterior motives and agendas.

shes already said yes to staying in SM and CU

[Tornadoes70]

We know that.

Hence why should he be included in a TV debate?

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Because he's leader of Westminster's opposition party and expected to outline his case.

I'd like to hear also opinions from the lollipop man down the road, the postie, the van driver, legal secretaries, brickies etc, however, to me its more important to hear what the two main Westminster parties have to say in isolation. Just my opinion, feel free to state your own mate if you wish.

[CropleyWasGod]

Because he's leader of Westminster's opposition party and expected to outline his case.

I'd like to hear also opinions from the lollipop man down the road, the postie, the van driver, legal secretaries, brickies etc, however, to me its more important to hear what the two main Westminster parties have to say in isolation. Just my opinion, feel free to state your own mate if you wish.The leaders of the different shades of opinion should be there IMO. We all know what they'd say, which probably negates the worth of it, though.

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[Tornadoes70]

The leaders of the different shades of opinion should be there IMO. We all know what they'd say, which probably negates the worth of it, though.

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Fair do's mate. A reasonable opinion indeed. I disagree but I fully respect your opinion.

[Bristolhibby]

Would they not be doing that today if there was the demand?

Might not be the supply.

I used to buy a lot of frozen lamb for a large public body. We always got complaints about not buying Welsh Lamb. The simple fact was we particularly wanted frozen lamb, there was not the capacity in Wales to cope with our demand. So we bought New Zealand frozen lamb, because they (due to their global location) pretty much had to freeze all their export production, so had the infrastructure (freezers, supply chain, etc) to do so.

J

[Moulin Yarns]

The leaders of the different shades of opinion should be there IMO. We all know what they'd say, which probably negates the worth of it, though.

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Definitely the leader of each party at Westminster should take part, including the green and DUP. We know the views but how they debate will be interesting. I suggest a knock out format, draw them out of a hat, imagine round 1 Arlene Foster v Jeremy Corbyn 😁

The good thing is that UKIP are not represented at Westminster

[degenerated]

You can dress it up in many ways. How about of all the EU countries England is our biggest trading partner. Does that sound better? (Still makes England our biggest trading partner)

Does the volume you refer to include any goods for onward trade to Europe or is it solely trade for consumption/use in England? As exports from Scotland to anywhere are largely via England then the actual figures are difficult to gauge.

[CropleyWasGod]

Definitely the leader of each party at Westminster should take part, including the green and DUP. We know the views but how they debate will be interesting. I suggest a knock out format, draw them out of a hat, imagine round 1 Arlene Foster v Jeremy Corbyn [emoji16]

The good thing is that UKIP are not represented at WestminsterI'm not sure why there needs to be a public debate TBH. It's not the public that need to be convinced here, it's the 600-odd MP's.

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[Fife-Hibee]

Would they not be doing that today if there was the demand?

Manufacturers don't export directly. Companies contact them and tell them they want X amount of stock. That stock is then taken over the border where most of it is then exported out into European countries where there is high demand for the product.

I can't believe some people are actually arguing against this and claiming that this doesn't happen. Of course it happens.

I'm not saying the 4x figure is wrong. It's what happens to that stock after it has crossed the border that is being completely overlooked here.

[McSwanky]

I'm not sure why there needs to be a public debate TBH. It's not the public that need to be convinced here, it's the 600-odd MP's.

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I agree with you to an extent, but Nicky Campbell made a good point on Five Live this morning, in that there will be all sorts of analysis as to who 'won' the debate afterwards (i.e. who the public support) which could in turn inform the MPs as to how the public feel about the whole thing. It may crystallise the debate in the Commons a bit though.

The question of who should be involved is a thorny one. Many people calling for business leaders, Farmers, union reps etc to be involved rather than the politicians themselves...

It's all a massive pantomime though, at least it's the season for it!

[Fife-Hibee]

Because he's leader of Westminster's opposition party and expected to outline his case.

Really? Because so far the only true opposition i've witnessed to the tories are the SNP.

[Tornadoes70]

Really? Because so far the only true opposition i've witnessed to the tories are the SNP.


i take very little notice of the snp and have no idea what they're latest gimmick is. What is their latest or most recent one?

[Hibernia&Alba]

Jeremy like myself has long opposed an ever more federalist integrated German led eu that will eventually render national governments virtually mere talking shops.

The EU is not a German conspiracy to dominate Europe. That's the old Tory Eurosceptic position and is false. Germany is the biggest net contributor to the EU budget. Changes can be vetoed by member states, meaning that, as the EU expands, it becomes increasingly difficult for one country to dominate. There are now 28 members - soon to be 27.

[Tornadoes70]

The EU is not a German conspiracy to dominate Europe. That's the old Tory Eurosceptic position and is false. Germany is the biggest net contributor to the EU budget. Changes can be vetoed by member states, meaning that, as the EU expands, it becomes increasingly difficult for one country to dominate. There are now 28 members - soon to be 27.

I didn't state that there is a German conspiracy to dominate Europe. However, I completely disagree that Germany is not the most dominant entity within the EU which they are. There could be 1000 members but in reality the biggest and richest countries will dominate. I respect your opinion but find it naive to be frank with you.

[Slavers]

The EU is not a German conspiracy to dominate Europe. That's the old Tory Eurosceptic position and is false. Germany is the biggest net contributor to the EU budget. Changes can be vetoed by member states, meaning that, as the EU expands, it becomes increasingly difficult for one country to dominate. There are now 28 members - soon to be 27.

No it's a vehicle for central bankers, large corporations and unelected bureaucrats to hold power by the few over the many.

It's all about centralizing power into the hands of the few. It's a model on how a one world government may act. It's a wolf in sheep's clothing.

Unfortunately the left now side with their corporate paymasterz and elite politicians rather than the working person.

[cabbageandribs1875]

i take very little notice of the snp and have no idea what they're latest gimmick is. What is their latest or most recent one?



oh it's yourself.. Ignsh70 are you forgetting to sign off with 'mon scottish labour' hoping no one realises your new username ? you fooled us with that one....... well, not really :hilarious

[Hibernia&Alba]

I didn't state that there is a German conspiracy to dominate Europe. However, I completely disagree that Germany is not the most dominant entity within the EU which they are. There could be 1000 members but in reality the biggest and richest countries will dominate. I respect your opinion but find it naive to be frank with you.

You need to define what you mean by 'dominate'; that language sounds conspiratorial. Germany, being the largest economy, also carries the heaviest burden in the EU. The UK, as the fifth largest economy in the world, France as the sixth largest, aren't easily 'dominated'; then there's powerful players like Italy to contend with. The EU is not a crafty plot by Germany; a Trojan horse to take over Europe. The voting structure in the EU prevents such domination. Furthermore, governments are not stupid, and countries wouldn't have sought accession to the EU in such numbers just to then be 'dominated'. Poland and France, for example, stand out as two countries occupied by Germany on several occasions. They would hardly sign up voluntarily to be satellite states of Germany.

[Callum_62]

i take very little notice of the snp and have no idea what they're latest gimmick is. What is their latest or most recent one?

A party in power for a decade and still commanding huge votes cant get by with gimmicks


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[Hibernia&Alba]

No it's a vehicle for central bankers, large corporations and unelected bureaucrats to hold power by the few over the many.

It's all about centralizing power into the hands of the few. It's a model on how a one world government may act. It's a wolf in sheep's clothing.

Unfortunately the left now side with their corporate paymasterz and elite politicians rather than the working person.

The EU isn't perfect, far from it, but it needn't work in the way you describe. The EU is also a vehicle, via its social aspects, to stand up against large corporations, and it's those very aspects the Tory right wants to dismantle outside the EU. I want an EU which act as a bulwark against the power of the banks and the multinationals and protect its citizens from the worst aspects of globalisation, but the way to achieve that is to reform from within. By walking away it is the poorest in the UK who will be hit hardest.

[JeMeSouviens]

Snippet from Robert Peston:


According to senior Labour sources, Corbyn is close to agreeing that shortly (days) after the loss of the meaningful vote by May, he would formally make his party the champion of another referendum or People’s Vote - on the basis that if there is no consensus in parliament on what comes next, the question has to go back to the people.

About ****** time if he does!

And while on the subject, if we do end up with Brexit cancelled then Keir Starmer will be my all time political hero (unless/until someone wins us an indyref :wink:).

[Tornadoes70]

You need to define what you mean by 'dominate'; that language sounds conspiratorial. Germany, being the largest economy, also carries the heaviest burden in the EU. The UK, as the fifth largest economy in the world, France as the sixth largest, aren't easily 'dominated'; then there's powerful players like Italy to contend with. The EU is not a crafty plot by Germany; a Trojan horse to take over Europe. The voting structure in the EU prevents such domination. Furthermore, governments are not stupid, and countries wouldn't have sought accession to the EU in such numbers just to then be 'dominated'. Poland and France, for example, stand out as two countries occupied by Germany on several occasions. They would hardly sign up voluntarily to be satellite states of Germany.

If you want to carry on believing all are equal and Scotland's voice would carry the same weight and gravitas as countries such as France and Germany you just carry on. Again I respect your opinion, however, find it lacking in underlying political awareness of the reality.

[JeMeSouviens]

You need to define what you mean by 'dominate'; that language sounds conspiratorial. Germany, being the largest economy, also carries the heaviest burden in the EU. The UK, as the fifth largest economy in the world, France as the sixth largest, aren't easily 'dominated'; then there's powerful players like Italy to contend with. The EU is not a crafty plot by Germany; a Trojan horse to take over Europe. The voting structure in the EU prevents such domination. Furthermore, governments are not stupid, and countries wouldn't have sought accession to the EU in such numbers just to then be 'dominated'. Poland and France, for example, stand out as two countries occupied by Germany on several occasions. They would hardly sign up voluntarily to be satellite states of Germany.

Cogently argued but, I strongly suspect, a waste of your time.

David Davis used to think the EU was a German-led enterprise as well:

https://twitter.com/daviddavismp/status/735770073822961664?lang=en

How did that work out for you, Davie? :greengrin

[Callum_62]

If you want to carry on believing all are equal and Scotland's voice would carry the same weight and gravitas as countries such as France and Germany you just carry on. Again I respect your opinion, however, find it lacking in underlying political awareness of the reality.

If 7 of the smallest EU 27 rejected the withdrawal bill - it would’ve been stopped

If Germany alone rejected it, it wouldn’t have mattered




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[JeMeSouviens]

If you want to carry on believing all are equal and Scotland's voice would carry the same weight and gravitas as countries such as France and Germany you just carry on. Again I respect your opinion, however, find it lacking in underlying political awareness of the reality.

I can't believe I'm going to try this but ... how would you say Scotland's voice (5.4M people) has been doing through the Brexit process compared to say, little old Ireland's (4.8M people)?

[Tornadoes70]

Cogently argued but, I strongly suspect, a waste of your time.

David Davis used to think the EU was a German-led enterprise as well:

https://twitter.com/daviddavismp/status/735770073822961664?lang=en

How did that work out for you, Davie? :greengrin

I don't take much notice of the snp. Seems very popular to cosy in with the Germans? Is this a new underlying policy?

[JeMeSouviens]

I don't take much notice of the snp. Seems very popular to cosy in with the Germans? Is this a new underlying policy?

Yes ... sorry, ja, I'm changing my username to IchErinnereMich as soon as I can reliably spell it.

[Tornadoes70]

I can't believe I'm going to try this but ... how would you say Scotland's voice (5.4M people) has been doing through the Brexit process compared to say, little old Ireland's (4.8M people)?

No idea and not important to me. I hate to point it out to you but Scotland for now is part of the UK and is leaving the eu along with the rest of the UK.

[Hibernia&Alba]

If you want to carry on believing all are equal and Scotland's voice would carry the same weight and gravitas as countries such as France and Germany you just carry on. Again I respect your opinion, however, find it lacking in underlying political awareness of the reality.

But it isn't only about 'weight and gravitas'; it's about mutual cooperation and mutual benefits. Outside the EU the UK will find itself out of the sphere of influence in many respects. We are no longer a world superpower; the EU was our vehicle to stay in the loop. In the EU we ARE one of the big boys; outside of it we are alone. Diplomacy on the big issues will involve the USA, the EU, Russia and China. When you talk of 'domination', perhaps the Tory right wing will now push forward in making us the 51st American state, as they have always preferred, so that we can keep a seat at the table with the big boys.

[JeMeSouviens]

But it isn't only about 'weight and gravitas'; it's about mutual cooperation and mutual benefits. Outside the EU the UK will find itself out of the sphere of influence in many respects. We are no longer a world superpower; the EU was our vehicle to stay in the loop. In the EU we ARE one of the big boys; outside of it we are alone. Diplomacy on the big issues will involve the USA, the EU, Russia and China. When you talk of 'domination', perhaps the Tory right wing will now push forward in making us the 51st American state, as they have always preferred, so that we can keep a seat at the table with the big boys.

One of the main reasons the Brexit Ultras hate May's deal so much is that the backstop ties us in to EU regulations on environmental protection and food standards and so on, hence no chance to do a US deal and get right into the American sphere of influence.

So nae luck on that one, Tories. :na na:

[JeMeSouviens]

No idea and not important to me. I hate to point it out to you but Scotland for now is part of the UK and is leaving the eu along with the rest of the UK.

"La la la" fingers in ears and not listening.

[Tornadoes70]

But it isn't only about 'weight and gravitas'; it's about mutual cooperation and mutual benefits. Outside the EU the UK will find itself out of the sphere of influence in many respects. We are no longer a world superpower; the EU was our vehicle to stay in the loop. In the EU we ARE one of the big boys; outside of it we are alone. Diplomacy on the big issues will involve the USA, the EU, Russia and China. When you talk of 'domination', perhaps the Tory right wing will now push forward in making us the 51st American state, as they have always preferred, so that we can keep a seat at the table with the big boys.

If it's boiling down to a straight choice of whether or not Scotland stands with our closest neighbours who're part of the same island group - England, Wales and Northern Ireland or separates off in a different direction altogether with Germany and France then I'll very happily stick with my fellow islanders. Doesn't make me or others like me any less Scottish just because we believe that partnership with our nearest neighbours is the correct action.

[Callum_62]

If it's boiling down to a straight choice of whether or not Scotland stands with our closest neighbours who're part of the same island group - England, Wales and Northern Ireland or separates off in a different direction altogether with Germany and France then I'll very happily stick with my fellow islanders. Doesn't make me or others like me any less Scottish just because we believe that partnership with our nearest neighbours is the correct action.

Its not partnership though is it

The BREXIT problems have highlighted that clearly

The EU stood up for one of its smallest nations, while the UK Gov completely ignored theres


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[Slavers]

Its not partnership though is it

The BREXIT problems have highlighted that clearly

The EU stood up for one of its smallest nations, while the UK Gov completely ignored theres


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It's fair to say that the EU wants rid off all nations. It wants to become the nation of Europe one nation the EU.

[CropleyWasGod]

I don't take much notice of the snp. Seems very popular to cosy in with the Germans? Is this a new underlying policy?

David Davis is a Tory :greengrin

[Hibbyradge]

England gets to play the middle man on some products purely for transport logistical reasons. Most UK exports leave the UK via Dover. I'm not surprised you missed this though as apparently the fact that Dover is so close to the continent is a little known fact. :wink:

It's still Scottish companies exporting Scottish products from Dover.

[RyeSloan]

Manufacturers don't export directly. Companies contact them and tell them they want X amount of stock. That stock is then taken over the border where most of it is then exported out into European countries where there is high demand for the product.

I can't believe some people are actually arguing against this and claiming that this doesn't happen. Of course it happens.

I'm not saying the 4x figure is wrong. It's what happens to that stock after it has crossed the border that is being completely overlooked here.

Did you miss my reply that quoted from the Scottish government that clearly states half of exports are services so highly unlikely to be reexported and for the physical goods a big chunk of them are goods that are also unlikely to be reexported?

No one is denying some will be reexported but you called the rUK being Scotland’s biggest market by far a ‘myth’. Your position on that has been backed up by nothing but you repeating the same statement.

Since you have accepted the 4x figure then more than happy for you to provide evidence that a very large proportion of that is reexported or that Brexit / Indy will massively change those dynamics....if you do then I’m happy to reassess my position.

[Slavers]

Is this the reason our politics are full of self serving career politicians? Very few leaders of countries within the EU have any biological children.

I know when i became a father it dramatically changed my life and attitude for the better and it made me a better person for sure.

However its notable that almost all of the leaders within the EU themselves have no children, do they really understand what matters to families?

I have often found with male/female friends that do not have any children approaching 40 years old they need to fill that void in their lives. This is done by various ways some go to the pub, some get pet mad and buy lots of dogs and cats, some become feminist activists and some it seems become career politicians.

Would our politics improve if we had more family orientated people in power? Maybe or maybe not.



Leader
Country / Gov. Body
Biological Children
Stepchildren


Emmanuel Macron (https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/emmanuel-macron-and-the-modern-family)
France
0
3


Angela Merkel (http://www.spiegel.de/spiegel/print/d-45168927.html)
Germany
0
2


Theresa May (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9762170/Theresa-May-interview-I-probably-was-Goody-Two-Shoes-at-school.html)
United Kingdom
0
0


Giuseppe Conte* (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/05/21/giuseppe-conte-italys-next-prime-minister/)
Italy (*as of 2018)
1
0


Mark Rutte (https://www.dutchnews.nl/features/2015/11/ten-things-you-didnt-know-about-prime-minister-mark-rutte/)
Holland
0
0


Stefan Lofven (https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/stefan-lofven-talar-ut-om-sin-karlek-till-ulla/)
Sweden
0
2


Xavier Bettel (http://www.lessentiel.lu/fr/news/luxembourg/story/--Je-suis-surpris-de-devenir-bourgmestre---13255746)
Luxembourg
0
0


Nicola Sturgeon (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-37270135)
Scotland
0
0


Raimonds Vējonis (https://news.yahoo.com/latvian-parliament-elects-defence-minister-vejonis-president-153807530.html)
Latvia
2
0


Dalia Grybauskaite (https://www.pri.org/stories/2014-01-31/all-single-leaders-world-s-most-eligible-heads-state)
Lithuania
0
0


Klaus Werner lohannis (https://evz.ro/carmen-johannis-sfetnicul-din-umbra-871880.html)
Romania
0
0


Jean-Claude Juncker (http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/luxembourg-leader-jean-claude-juncker-has-a-future-despite-scandal-a-911077.html)
European Commission
0
0

[Hibbyradge]

I don't take much notice of the snp.

Oh yes you do!

[CropleyWasGod]

Is this the reason our politics are full of self serving career politicians? Very few leaders of countries within the EU have any biological children.

I know when i had my kid it dramatically changed my life and attitude for the better and it made me a better person for sure.

However its notable that almost all of the leaders within the EU themselves have no children, do they really understand what matters to families?

I have often found with male/female friends that do not have any children approaching 40 years old they need to fill that void in their lives. This is done by various ways some go to the pub, some get pet mad and buy lots of dogs and cats, some become feminist activists and some it seems become career politicians.

Would our politics improve if we had more family orientated people in power? Maybe or maybe not.



Leader
Country / Gov. Body
Biological Children
Stepchildren


Emmanuel Macron (https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/emmanuel-macron-and-the-modern-family)
France
0
3


Angela Merkel (http://www.spiegel.de/spiegel/print/d-45168927.html)
Germany
0
2


Theresa May (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9762170/Theresa-May-interview-I-probably-was-Goody-Two-Shoes-at-school.html)
United Kingdom
0
0


Giuseppe Conte* (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/05/21/giuseppe-conte-italys-next-prime-minister/)
Italy (*as of 2018)
1
0


Mark Rutte (https://www.dutchnews.nl/features/2015/11/ten-things-you-didnt-know-about-prime-minister-mark-rutte/)
Holland
0
0


Stefan Lofven (https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/stefan-lofven-talar-ut-om-sin-karlek-till-ulla/)
Sweden
0
2


Xavier Bettel (http://www.lessentiel.lu/fr/news/luxembourg/story/--Je-suis-surpris-de-devenir-bourgmestre---13255746)
Luxembourg
0
0


Nicola Sturgeon (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-37270135)
Scotland
0
0


Raimonds Vējonis (https://news.yahoo.com/latvian-parliament-elects-defence-minister-vejonis-president-153807530.html)
Latvia
2
0


Dalia Grybauskaite (https://www.pri.org/stories/2014-01-31/all-single-leaders-world-s-most-eligible-heads-state)
Lithuania
0
0


Klaus Werner lohannis (https://evz.ro/carmen-johannis-sfetnicul-din-umbra-871880.html)
Romania
0
0


Jean-Claude Juncker (http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/luxembourg-leader-jean-claude-juncker-has-a-future-despite-scandal-a-911077.html)
European Commission
0
0





What are the stats for the 18 countries (that is, over 60%) that you have omitted?

[JeMeSouviens]

Is this the reason our politics are full of self serving career politicians? Very few leaders of countries within the EU have any biological children.

I know when i became a father it dramatically changed my life and attitude for the better and it made me a better person for sure.

However its notable that almost all of the leaders within the EU themselves have no children, do they really understand what matters to families?

I have often found with male/female friends that do not have any children approaching 40 years old they need to fill that void in their lives. This is done by various ways some go to the pub, some get pet mad and buy lots of dogs and cats, some become feminist activists and some it seems become career politicians.

Would our politics improve if we had more family orientated people in power? Maybe or maybe not.



Leader
Country / Gov. Body
Biological Children
Stepchildren


Emmanuel Macron (https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/emmanuel-macron-and-the-modern-family)
France
0
3


Angela Merkel (http://www.spiegel.de/spiegel/print/d-45168927.html)
Germany
0
2


Theresa May (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9762170/Theresa-May-interview-I-probably-was-Goody-Two-Shoes-at-school.html)
United Kingdom
0
0


Giuseppe Conte* (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/05/21/giuseppe-conte-italys-next-prime-minister/)
Italy (*as of 2018)
1
0


Mark Rutte (https://www.dutchnews.nl/features/2015/11/ten-things-you-didnt-know-about-prime-minister-mark-rutte/)
Holland
0
0


Stefan Lofven (https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/stefan-lofven-talar-ut-om-sin-karlek-till-ulla/)
Sweden
0
2


Xavier Bettel (http://www.lessentiel.lu/fr/news/luxembourg/story/--Je-suis-surpris-de-devenir-bourgmestre---13255746)
Luxembourg
0
0


Nicola Sturgeon (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-37270135)
Scotland
0
0


Raimonds Vējonis (https://news.yahoo.com/latvian-parliament-elects-defence-minister-vejonis-president-153807530.html)
Latvia
2
0


Dalia Grybauskaite (https://www.pri.org/stories/2014-01-31/all-single-leaders-world-s-most-eligible-heads-state)
Lithuania
0
0


Klaus Werner lohannis (https://evz.ro/carmen-johannis-sfetnicul-din-umbra-871880.html)
Romania
0
0


Jean-Claude Juncker (http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/luxembourg-leader-jean-claude-juncker-has-a-future-despite-scandal-a-911077.html)
European Commission
0
0




I have no idea and what's this doing in the Brexit thread?

[CropleyWasGod]

I have no idea and what's this doing in the Brexit thread?

Because J-C J is clearly the child catcher. :rolleyes:

[Peevemor]

Is this the reason our politics are full of self serving career politicians? Very few leaders of countries within the EU have any biological children.

I know when i became a father it dramatically changed my life and attitude for the better and it made me a better person for sure.

However its notable that almost all of the leaders within the EU themselves have no children, do they really understand what matters to families?

I have often found with male/female friends that do not have any children approaching 40 years old they need to fill that void in their lives. This is done by various ways some go to the pub, some get pet mad and buy lots of dogs and cats, some become feminist activists and some it seems become career politicians.

Would our politics improve if we had more family orientated people in power? Maybe or maybe not.



Leader
Country / Gov. Body
Biological Children
Stepchildren


Emmanuel Macron (https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/emmanuel-macron-and-the-modern-family)
France
0
3


Angela Merkel (http://www.spiegel.de/spiegel/print/d-45168927.html)
Germany
0
2


Theresa May (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9762170/Theresa-May-interview-I-probably-was-Goody-Two-Shoes-at-school.html)
United Kingdom
0
0


Giuseppe Conte* (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/05/21/giuseppe-conte-italys-next-prime-minister/)
Italy (*as of 2018)
1
0


Mark Rutte (https://www.dutchnews.nl/features/2015/11/ten-things-you-didnt-know-about-prime-minister-mark-rutte/)
Holland
0
0


Stefan Lofven (https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/stefan-lofven-talar-ut-om-sin-karlek-till-ulla/)
Sweden
0
2


Xavier Bettel (http://www.lessentiel.lu/fr/news/luxembourg/story/--Je-suis-surpris-de-devenir-bourgmestre---13255746)
Luxembourg
0
0


Nicola Sturgeon (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-37270135)
Scotland
0
0


Raimonds Vējonis (https://news.yahoo.com/latvian-parliament-elects-defence-minister-vejonis-president-153807530.html)
Latvia
2
0


Dalia Grybauskaite (https://www.pri.org/stories/2014-01-31/all-single-leaders-world-s-most-eligible-heads-state)
Lithuania
0
0


Klaus Werner lohannis (https://evz.ro/carmen-johannis-sfetnicul-din-umbra-871880.html)
Romania
0
0


Jean-Claude Juncker (http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/luxembourg-leader-jean-claude-juncker-has-a-future-despite-scandal-a-911077.html)
European Commission
0
0




Out of Emmanuel Macron's step-kids, one is 2 years older than him and another was in his class at school. I don't know where that puts his mindset...

[Slavers]

Out of Emmanuel Macron's step-kids, one is 2 years older than him and another was in his class at school. I don't know where that puts his mindset...

Can't help but think Macron is a puppet of the Rothchild banking cartel.

My granny once said to me when referring to Alex Salmond that men who date much older women should not be trusted.

Looks like she was right about Salmond.

[CropleyWasGod]

Can't help but think Macron is a puppet of the Rothchild banking cartel.

My granny once said to me when referring to Alex Salmond that men who date much older women should not be trusted.

Looks like she was right about Salmond.

My Granny once told me that slicing-sausage would put hairs on my chest.

[Slavers]

My Granny once told me that slicing-sausage would put hairs on my chest.

Did you slice the sausage?

[CropleyWasGod]

Did you slice the sausage?

No, the butcher did that.

Now that I've answered your question, could you answer mine? :greengrin

[Slavers]

No, the butcher did that.

Now that I've answered your question, could you answer mine? :greengrin

I don't see your question?

[CropleyWasGod]

I don't see your question?

In relation to your theory that career-politicians are child-averse:-

What are the stats for the 18 EU countries (that is, over 60%) that you have omitted?

Indeed, why not extend it to the whole world, in order to get a reasonable basis for your argument?

[JeMeSouviens]

Can't help but think Macron is a puppet of the Rothchild banking cartel.

My granny once said to me when referring to Alex Salmond that men who date much older women should not be trusted.

Looks like she was right about Salmond.

Have I wandered into the surrealism thread by accident? :confused:

[CropleyWasGod]

Have I wandered into the surrealism thread by accident? :confused:

Barcelona 0

Real Magritte, a potato

[Slavers]

In relation to your theory that career-politicians are child-averse:-

What are the stats for the 18 EU countries (that is, over 60%) that you have omitted?

Indeed, why not extend it to the whole world, in order to get a reasonable basis for your argument?

Well i didn't have that information to hand but the ones i have listed you could say they hold the power both in the UK and the EU so that is more relevant to comment on.