Brexit - what will happen next

[James310]

A German friend of mine (history teacher) said just after the brexit referendum, that he wouldn't be surprised to see EU army peacekeeping troops in the UK within the next 20 years. It's hard to argue with his logic when you look at the rise of the right in other former amalgamated nations.

Keeping the peace between who?

[RyeSloan]

A German friend of mine (history teacher) said just after the brexit referendum, that he wouldn't be surprised to see EU army peacekeeping troops in the UK within the next 20 years. It's hard to argue with his logic when you look at the rise of the right in other former amalgamated nations.

What? Jeez really? What was his unarguable logic for such an odd proclamation?

And maybe he should be looking closer to home and the rise of the AfD before worrying about the U.K...

[Slavers]

A German friend of mine (history teacher) said just after the brexit referendum, that he wouldn't be surprised to see EU army peacekeeping troops in the UK within the next 20 years. It's hard to argue with his logic when you look at the rise of the right in other former amalgamated nations.

I think this post highlights just how much hatred there is towards the UK from people within Pro-EU circles after the Brexit vote.

I'd never join the army to fight wars for politicians and bankers but id certainly take up an armed resistance against an EU 'peacekeeping' force on UK soil.

[Bristolhibby]

I would put money on there being Russian troops even closer.

What in Russia?

[The Tubs]

Keeping the peace between who?


Did you hear a Tory MP’s recent solution to the West Lothian question? :idiot:

[Moulin Yarns]

What in Russia?

Doh, of course. 🇷🇺😏

[Hibrandenburg]

Keeping the peace between who?

If parts of the UK were to break away from the rest UK there are elements that would do all in their power to stop that. Once the ball gets rolling there's no knowing where and when it will stop. You just have to look at what happened in the former Yugoslavia as one possible scenario. It's not beyond belief that loyalists in Northern Ireland would resist any unification with Ireland and they'd get plenty of support from many in the rest UK. Who knows what effect that might have on Scotland.

[Hibrandenburg]

What? Jeez really? What was his unarguable logic for such an odd proclamation?

And maybe he should be looking closer to home and the rise of the AfD before worrying about the U.K...

Oh he is.

[Hibrandenburg]

I think this post highlights just how much hatred there is towards the UK from people within Pro-EU circles after the Brexit vote.

I'd never join the army to fight wars for politicians and bankers but id certainly take up an armed resistance against an EU 'peacekeeping' force on UK soil.

You really do talk some pish. How does having an educated assumption about how things could pan out equal hatred? For what it's worth he's the biggest anglophile you'll ever meet.

[RyeSloan]

If parts of the UK were to break away from the rest UK there are elements that would do all in their power to stop that. Once the ball gets rolling there's no knowing where and when it will stop. You just have to look at what happened in the former Yugoslavia as one possible scenario. It's not beyond belief that loyalists in Northern Ireland would resist any unification with Ireland and they'd get plenty of support from many in the rest UK. Who knows what effect that might have on Scotland.

You found it hard to argue that the U.K. was not the former Yugoslavia?

Or that Scotland is not Northern Ireland ?

Or indeed that he went from Brexit to Scottish Indy to Irish reunification to justify the concept of EU peacekeepers in the former U.K.?

Any things possible I suppose but if you found his logic hard to argue with then I’d politely suggest you really weren’t trying very hard ;-)

[SouthsideHarp_Bhoy]

A German friend of mine (history teacher) said just after the brexit referendum, that he wouldn't be surprised to see EU army peacekeeping troops in the UK within the next 20 years. It's hard to argue with his logic when you look at the rise of the right in other former amalgamated nations.

Does the EU even have peacekeepers?

It would certainly add grist to the mill of those who believe that theu EU is a german imperial project, designed to succeed where their previous two attempts failed.

I wouls suggest he is getting a bit carried away however.

[Hibrandenburg]

You found it hard to argue that the U.K. was not the former Yugoslavia?

Or that Scotland is not Northern Ireland ?

Or indeed that he went from Brexit to Scottish Indy to Irish reunification to justify the concept of EU peacekeepers in the former U.K.?

Any things possible I suppose but if you found his logic hard to argue with then I’d politely suggest you really weren’t trying very hard ;-)

There's plenty parallels to be drawn between the rise of right wing populist politics in Yugoslavia pre war with what is happening in the UK today. Read the history. I'll bet many in Yugoslavia never thought that they'd end up in a conflict with their neighbours.

[Hibrandenburg]

Does the EU even have peacekeepers?

It would certainly add grist to the mill of those who believe that theu EU is a german imperial project, designed to succeed where their previous two attempts failed.

I wouls suggest he is getting a bit carried away however.

We we're talking about a possible EU army in the future. If that army does get created then yes there is a possibility that it might be called upon by the UN to provide peacekeeping troops to monitor regional conflicts. You can't deny that the old hatred is simmering below the surface in NI and who knows what effect brexit will have on that. If Scotland then goes down the road of independence then who knows what those who will resist it are prepared to do, especially if in NI there is already conflict.

[Slavers]

There's plenty parallels to be drawn between the rise of right wing populist politics in Yugoslavia pre war with what is happening in the UK today. Read the history. I'll bet many in Yugoslavia never thought that they'd end up in a conflict with their neighbours.

There is no rise of the Far-Right in the UK and certainly not compared to Germany, Italy, Sweden, Austria, Hungary, France and Poland.

[Callum_62]

There is no rise of the Far-Right in the UK and certainly not compared to Germany, Sweden, Austria, Hungary, France and Poland.

[emoji23][emoji23][emoji23] ok.


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[Slavers]

[emoji23][emoji23][emoji23] ok.


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Name me one mainstream political party who is far right in the UK? In the EU the far right is running rampant compared to the UK.

[Callum_62]

Where did the UKip vote disappear to?

Just there base softening?


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[RyeSloan]

There's plenty parallels to be drawn between the rise of right wing populist politics in Yugoslavia pre war with what is happening in the UK today. Read the history. I'll bet many in Yugoslavia never thought that they'd end up in a conflict with their neighbours.

Sorry but there really isn’t.

The situation in Yugoslavia with hits history of ethnic and religious divide, communist rule, the era of Tito, the fall of communism, the arming of its populace, the rule of Milosevic etc etc etc is completely different from the U.K.

To try and say the situations are comparable is, in my opinion, just ridiculous.

[SouthsideHarp_Bhoy]

We we're talking about a possible EU army in the future. If that army does get created then yes there is a possibility that it might be called upon by the UN to provide peacekeeping troops to monitor regional conflicts. You can't deny that the old hatred is simmering below the surface in NI and who knows what effect brexit will have on that. If Scotland then goes down the road of independence then who knows what those who will resist it are prepared to do, especially if in NI there is already conflict.

So is it your friend who thinks this might happen, or you?!

I think you are making wild leaps.

Firstly, the eu doesnt have any peacekeepers.

Secondly, for the UN to authorise it the security council would be involved - so that couldnt happen.

Thirdly, no uk govt of any persuasion would ever accept foreign troops being here in a semi aggressive mission.

Fourthly, what mandate or appetite would the EU have to interfere in a non member country?

I accept your premise that NI may have some similarities to rhe balkans, but the rest of the uk has none.

I would guess that irish unification is far more likely than what you suggest. I think many in rhe UK would be delighred to get rid of the irish problem - then it really would bexomean EU issue, and we know how bad the EU are ar sorting oit such issues.

[PeeJay]

Genuine question. What are the reservations with, and objections to, a European army?

And how would that differ from, and complement, NATO?

Personally, I have no reservations whatsoever about the concept of a "European Union Army" - it's been mooted for some time now though, so I wouldn't expect this anytime soon, but it seems to be a reasonable and logical consequence to current US, Russian and Chinese political developments. From an EU perspective, the primary reason for its existence - as ever - would be that it would make it almost impossible for European countries to go to war again "with each other" ...

Obviously, the EU Army would not have NATO countries such as the UK, Norway USA; Canada or Turkey involved in it so that will involve a great deal of coordination and planning of objectives, etc. between them - It will take some time to actually be set up and while Macron seemingly wants it to initially be some sort of powerful intervention force focused on, e.g. the African continent and the migration issue. Germany will have serious issues about deploying troops without prior German Parliamentary approval in particular. Plans are said to also involve joint weapons development programmes and export sales, something that should prove interesting as France's export regulations are much slacker than Germany's for example.

The idea behind it all ultimately is part of a EU vision that has to see the EU grow closer together rather than fall apart, the UK's departure is obviously not doing anyone any favours - Brexit is a major blow to the EU on all levels IMO.

NATO is apparently not keen on the idea, Mr T. thinks it laughable, Mr P thinks it is a good idea and the conspiracy theorists are already proselytizing on the evilness of it all!

Whatever form it will ultimately take and whenever it will actually come to be is all as yet pretty vague ... the EU is in a difficult place at the moment, who knows what is just around the corner?

[Callum_62]

[QUOTE=SouthsideHarp_Bhoy;5604381

Thirdly, no uk govt of any persuasion would ever accept foreign troops being here.[/QUOTE]

Why not? We expect it of others [emoji848][emoji1751]*[emoji3603]



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[Moulin Yarns]

If parts of the UK were to break away from the rest UK there are elements that would do all in their power to stop that. Once the ball gets rolling there's no knowing where and when it will stop. You just have to look at what happened in the former Yugoslavia as one possible scenario. It's not beyond belief that loyalists in Northern Ireland would resist any unification with Ireland and they'd get plenty of support from many in the rest UK. Who knows what effect that might have on Scotland. Funnily enough both the former Yugoslavia and Ireland were mentioned in our house last night as similar situations to Indian partitioning, we were watching the latest Doctor Who to put it in context, and how religion has a lot to answer for. A bit like the middle east situation in various countries just now. E.G. Israel/Palestine and Syria. I don't think the possibility of UDI in parts of the United Kingdom of Britain and Ireland would result in an outbreak of violence, the reunification of Ireland is the only situation I see as possibly causing conflict.

[Sylar]

At 2pm, the current Cabinet vote on the Withdrawal Agreement. Here is a 500 page document that Ministers received at 11pm last night. Not one of them interviewed going into Downing Street had read it yet, and were going to "read it when inside".

According to May, it's "not perfect, but as good as it gets".

Doesn't that all sound ****ing wonderful?

[stokesmessiah]

At 2pm, the current Cabinet vote on the Withdrawal Agreement. Here is a 500 page document that Ministers received at 11pm last night. Not one of them interviewed going into Downing Street had read it yet, and were going to "read it when inside".

According to May, it's "not perfect, but as good as it gets".

Doesn't that all sound ****ing wonderful?

Total and utter shambles. This whole process from start to finish has been absolutely horrendous.

I cannot see this getting through and fear we are going to end up plunged into a general election and more chaos.

[Hibernia&Alba]

At 2pm, the current Cabinet vote on the Withdrawal Agreement. Here is a 500 page document that Ministers received at 11pm last night. Not one of them interviewed going into Downing Street had read it yet, and were going to "read it when inside".

According to May, it's "not perfect, but as good as it gets".

Doesn't that all sound ****ing wonderful?

The EU has reached its limit on what its prepared to concede, and refusal to accept this deal (whatever it involves) will probably mean a no deal Brexit. If, however, the deal involves even modest compromises by the UK, the Conservative Party won't accept it, and May could find herself ousted. Then the deal has to get through the Commons, which is very unlikely, given a majority of MPs wish to remain. Then what - a second referendum? May's hope has to be that the fear of a second vote, which could well be in favour of remaining, will so frighten the Tory Brexit hardliners that they accept this deal, even grudgingly; but that still leaves her the problem of parliament. As much as May is a total clown, she has an almost impossible task, such are the divisions her party and in the country on the issue.

[JeMeSouviens]

George Osborne having fun I see :wink:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dr9a2B1WwAAuTmv.jpg

[SouthsideHarp_Bhoy]

Why not? We expect it of others [emoji848][emoji1751]*[emoji3603]



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So you think the EU should invade the UK?

[Hibernia&Alba]

So you think the EU should invade the UK?

Would they mortar Tynecastle and Ibrox? I could be persuaded.

[Callum_62]

So you think the EU should invade the UK?

Ofcourse not - just pointing out that we do it over and over with barely a blink of an eye

We are the good though, right?


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[JeMeSouviens]

So you think the EU should invade the UK?

Arguably if Britain had internationalised the NI conflict with neutral peacekeepers in the early 70s it could have saved 25 years of bloodshed.

[Moulin Yarns]

So you think the EU should invade the UK?

Is any other country in violent turmoil 'invaded' by UN peacekeeping forces? Kosovo? Cyprus? Lebanon? South Sudan? No, I didn't think so.

123 different countries provide peacekeepers, and you might be amazed at the top providers. The UK currently (Sept 2018) provides 657 members of staff, not all military, to the UN peacekeeping missions, which stands at 90,000 staff.

[Bristolhibby]

There's plenty parallels to be drawn between the rise of right wing populist politics in Yugoslavia pre war with what is happening in the UK today. Read the history. I'll bet many in Yugoslavia never thought that they'd end up in a conflict with their neighbours.

Except for the previous 500 years of history and the multiple wars in the Balkan’s.

I would suggest that the post war peace was just papering over the cracks through the authoritarian regime of Communism. When Tito died and Communism fell, the Balkan’s just reverted to type.

J

[BroxburnHibee]

What a complete cluster **** this has been from start to finish.

Can't see it getting through parliament anyway so think a no deal Brexit is likely now and another General Election early next year more than likely.

I voted remain but I'd rather we cut ties than accept this nonsense.

[Bristolhibby]

No getting through Cabinet, expect resignations.
If it does, Commons will year it up from remain and leave.

Options are General Election - Tory’s will be ****ting it at that.

More sensible an extension of A50, and a proposal to the people. EU would accept that as they don’t really want the U.K. to leave.

A three way shoot off, using the Alternative Vote System. The options are -

Hard BREXIT
BREXIT In Name Only (BINO) aka Mays deal
or
Remain

Voters rank their votes and then where ever we end up we go with.

J

[GlesgaeHibby]

What a complete cluster **** this has been from start to finish.

Can't see it getting through parliament anyway so think a no deal Brexit is likely now and another General Election early next year more than likely.

I voted remain but I'd rather we cut ties than accept this nonsense.

That's the problem. This half baked fudge of an agreement pleases nobody. Brexiters don't like it and neither do Remainers.

[Hibernia&Alba]

That's the problem. This half baked fudge of an agreement pleases nobody. Brexiters don't like it and neither do Remainers.

Aye, that's a big risk. May is trying to thread a very fine needle here, by trying to find compromise where there is very little room. If we leave, thus giving up our voting rights and influence, yet accept the continuation of some of the major EU rules, neither side will be happy, as you say.

[Hibrandenburg]

Why not? We expect it of others [emoji848][emoji1751]*[emoji3603]



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Not even if it was approved by the UN and aimed at monitoring a cease-fire until peace negotiations can take place.

[Hibrandenburg]

So you think the EU should invade the UK?

Behave, nobody is suggesting anything like that might happen. Do you ever read people's posts properly before putting words in their mouths?

[Hibrandenburg]

Except for the previous 500 years of history and the multiple wars in the Balkan’s.

I would suggest that the post war peace was just papering over the cracks through the authoritarian regime of Communism. When Tito died and Communism fell, the Balkan’s just reverted to type.

J

It could be argued that the union has just papered over the cracks for the past few hundred years. Do you seriously believe that Ulster Unionists would peacefully accept being ruled from Dublin? In today's UK of partisan politics, who knows what that spark could ignite.

[Moulin Yarns]

Nicola Sturgeon asked to see the draft agreement, Theresa May refused until after the cabinet meeting, yet the governor of Gibraltar has seen it. Wales not seen it either but the DUP have seen it.

Aye an equal union, my arse.

[Moulin Yarns]

The irrelevant 13 Scottish tories have written demanding full exit from the common fisheries policy. Wow, the most important thing in the whole Brexit debate according to the 13.

[stoneyburn hibs]

Nicola Sturgeon asked to see the draft agreement, Theresa May refused until after the cabinet meeting, yet the governor of Gibraltar has seen it. Wales not seen it either but the DUP have seen it.

Aye an equal union, my arse.

If that's correct, then it's outrageous.

[JeMeSouviens]

The irrelevant 13 Scottish tories have written demanding full exit from the common fisheries policy. Wow, the most important thing in the whole Brexit debate according to the 13.

It is to them - the inevitable fishing sell out will see a good few of them lose their seats.

All the "moderate" Tories claiming a 2nd ref can't happen because it would be "divisive" as well. Divisive for who? The electorate couldn't be any more divided. What they really mean is getting a bad deal through might just keep the Tory party together. :rolleyes:

[Moulin Yarns]

If that's correct, then it's outrageous.

In that case it's outrageous.

Northern Ireland backstop is to remain in the custom Union while RUK is not. Unacceptable to the Scottish government because it gives NI an advantage, and unacceptable to the DUP because they demand the same for all parts of the UK.

[JeMeSouviens]

The mantra has been "taking back control" of borders, laws and money plus of course buccaneering off around the world to trade!

so, taking them 1 by 1:

- borders, free movement ends so a tick there I guess. At least in as much as the right of EU citizens to come here will end.

- laws, arguably this gets worse in terms of control: the UK has to follow EU regulations it has no say in shaping

- money, well yes in the sense contributions to the EU budget end. But with the (80% of the UK economy) services sector outside the SM, there will (according to almost unanimous estimates) be a lot less public money to splash around. So we get total control of a (net) smaller pot. Yippee!

- trade, our now unfettered services sector can now turn the map back to British Empire red, right? Well, no, it turns out. The leverage the UK would have in trade deals disappears as we are tied to the EU's customs territory. Oh well.


In summary - It's economic damage limitation, a somewhat poorer economy and consequent hit to public services in exchange for less people from Eastern Europe. If hating Poles is your bag - big win. :rolleyes:

[JeMeSouviens]

In that case it's outrageous.

Northern Ireland backstop is to remain in the custom Union while RUK is not. Unacceptable to the Scottish government because it gives NI an advantage, and unacceptable to the DUP because they demand the same for all parts of the UK.

The DUP are un-be-******-lievable. :rolleyes: NO to your advantages - we demand the right to go down with the sinking ship. Loonies.

[Callum_62]

I do wonder though - what would be classed as a good deal?

Pretty much all experts agree we will be worse off - is this the best of a bad situation - with both ends if leave/remain screaming atrocities as theres compromised to both?


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[Moulin Yarns]

The mantra has been "taking back control" of borders, laws and money plus of course buccaneering off around the world to trade!


In summary - It's economic damage limitation, a somewhat poorer economy and consequent hit to public services in exchange for less people from Eastern Europe. If hating Poles is your bag - big win. :rolleyes:

And rotting fruit and vegetables in the fields costing farmers and the knock on effect of higher imports to make up for the shortage at higher prices.

Well done you ****ers

[Moulin Yarns]

Statement from the PM due at 5pm now not expected until 7pm due to cabinet meeting overrun.

No **** sherlock

[Saturday Boy]

The irrelevant 13 Scottish tories have written demanding full exit from the common fisheries policy. Wow, the most important thing in the whole Brexit debate according to the 13.

The leaving the Common Fisheries Policy argument is really a bit of a red herring, with apologies for the pun.

What they want is continued unlimited , tariff free access to the European markets for UK fish, without the quotas or any “foreign “ access to UK waters.

Never going to happen.

[SouthsideHarp_Bhoy]

Is any other country in violent turmoil 'invaded' by UN peacekeeping forces? Kosovo? Cyprus? Lebanon? South Sudan? No, I didn't think so.

123 different countries provide peacekeepers, and you might be amazed at the top providers. The UK currently (Sept 2018) provides 657 members of staff, not all military, to the UN peacekeeping missions, which stands at 90,000 staff.

This is a weird debate...

No, i think nost of them are there at the request of one side or another, as part of a deal or part of a UN brokered agreement. As rhe UK can veto UN action, that coyld never happen.

So, you are left with a situation where an inrernational force would habe to impose themselves, in a semi aggressive manner on the UK.

I cant believe people are losing their **** this much, that theu think the ludicrous situation of the EU occupying, invading or peace keeping in the UK is even the remotest of possibilities. And the original post wasnt even limited to NI, but to Scotland too!

[JeMeSouviens]

The leaving the Common Fisheries Policy argument is really a bit of a red herring, with apologies for the pun.

What they want is continued unlimited , tariff free access to the European markets for UK fish, without the quotas or any “foreign “ access to UK waters.

Never going to happen.

*Never* apologise for a pun on hibs.net! Especially a fish one, always a plaice etc. ...

[SouthsideHarp_Bhoy]

Behave, nobody is suggesting anything like that might happen. Do you ever read people's posts properly before putting words in their mouths?

So you missed the post where the poster drew parallels between iraq and kosovo invasions, and the eu putting its mythical soldiers in the UK?

Perhaps you should read the posts better?

[Saturday Boy]

*Never* apologise for a pun on hibs.net! Especially a fish one, always a plaice etc. ...

What have I started. 😱

[Chorley Hibee]

There's plenty parallels to be drawn between the rise of right wing populist politics in Yugoslavia pre war with what is happening in the UK today. Read the history. I'll bet many in Yugoslavia never thought that they'd end up in a conflict with their neighbours.

As soon as Tito died it was inevitable that the old tensions amongst Serbs,Croats, Bosniaks etc would resurface.

[SouthsideHarp_Bhoy]

Arguably if Britain had internationalised the NI conflict with neutral peacekeepers in the early 70s it could have saved 25 years of bloodshed.

Maybe, but thats really a different discussion. That it was never seriously mooted surely suggests its a non starter?

Plus, the EU doesnt have soldiers/peacekeepers to put in!

[SouthsideHarp_Bhoy]

Genuine question. What are the reservations with, and objections to, a European army?

And how would that differ from, and complement, NATO?

Because military force is the ultimate power. Why would France (basically) and previously the UK want to inhibit its own actions by making its forces answerable to unelected bureaucrats from 27 other countries?

And we already hsbe NATO, which is established and proven to work.

If you were being really unkind, you might suggest that why would european countries who have freeloaded off the US for thri defence, want to suddenly habe tp start paying for their own?

[PeeJay]

If that's correct, then it's outrageous.

It's not correct - according to DUP leader Foster, they haven't seen it yet ... seems unlikely that the Gibraltar Government has seen it when they haven't -

[SouthsideHarp_Bhoy]

I do wonder though - what would be classed as a good deal?

Pretty much all experts agree we will be worse off - is this the best of a bad situation - with both ends if leave/remain screaming atrocities as theres compromised to both?


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A good question - but not one that anyone can really answer because brexit is seen as different things to different people.

Id see remaining in the CU as a good deal from where we are now, but its undeniably worse than the deal we are leaving!

[Moulin Yarns]

This is a weird debate...

No, i think nost of them are there at the request of one side or another, as part of a deal or part of a UN brokered agreement. As rhe UK can veto UN action, that coyld never happen.

So, you are left with a situation where an inrernational force would habe to impose themselves, in a semi aggressive manner on the UK.

I cant believe people are losing their **** this much, that theu think the ludicrous situation of the EU occupying, invading or peace keeping in the UK is even the remotest of possibilities. And the original post wasnt even limited to NI, but to Scotland too!

Hang on. You bring up the possibility of the EU 'invading' the UK, but now you think it's ludicrous. You really are confusing at times.

[JeMeSouviens]

Maybe, but thats really a different discussion. That it was never seriously mooted surely suggests its a non starter?

Plus, the EU doesnt have soldiers/peacekeepers to put in!


Moderately tangential, to be fair. :wink:

https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2003/apr/29/northernireland.past

[Moulin Yarns]

Moderately tangential, to be fair. :wink:

https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2003/apr/29/northernireland.past

👍

[Bristolhibby]

In that case it's outrageous.

Northern Ireland backstop is to remain in the custom Union while RUK is not. Unacceptable to the Scottish government because it gives NI an advantage, and unacceptable to the DUP because they demand the same for all parts of the UK.

Can we do a swap?

[JeMeSouviens]

Meanwhile, Laura Kuenssberg reporting that Tory MP letters of no confidence are going in as we speak. If the total gets to 48 they have to have a leadership election ...

[SouthsideHarp_Bhoy]

Hang on. You bring up the possibility of the EU 'invading' the UK, but now you think it's ludicrous. You really are confusing at times.

One poster suggested the eu would be peacekeeping in a uk torn asunder by religious and ethnic conflict a la yugoslavia, which i suggested was ridiculous. Another poster then said it wasnt ridiculous, because we had done it in kosovo and iraq - i then asked if he was suggesting the eu would invade, as we did in kosovo and iraq.

I never said suggested it would happen, the whole discussion is ludicrous.

[bingo70]

Excuse my ignorance but What happens now the cabinet has approved Mays deal?

Does it result in Scottish independence? 😜🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿

[Hibernia&Alba]

Excuse my ignorance but What happens now the cabinet has approved Mays deal?

Does it result in Scottish independence? 😜🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿

It will have to be ratified in parliament, which will be VERY difficult. I just watched Channel 4 News have an interview with three Tory MPs, all of whom want different things. If, as is being rumoured, the agreement contains a 'back stop' for a soft Irish border, the DUP say they will vote against, meaning it is sunk anyway.

Assuming parliament rejects the deal, that really means:

1, Re-negotiate the deal and try again.
2, Leave with no deal.
3, A second referendum on the deal.

I would imagine any defeat in parliament would force May's resignation, but it's very difficult to predict anything just now.

In other words, the mess continues.

Who knows what impact it will have on Scottish independence in the next few years. :dunno:

[RyeSloan]

Popcorn oot...

Think I’ll tune in for a couple of days to observe the furore [emoji23]

Rarely do we find a situation where so many politicos, journalists and any one with a social media account will have their own version of what they think should happen.

I’m taking the I’ve no idea who’s right and probably everyone’s wrong position [emoji12]

[Weegreenman]

I predict that this deal will be kicked out. Thus giving Teresa May no option but to resign. What happens after that is anyone’s guess.

[bingo70]

Popcorn oot...

Think I’ll tune in for a couple of days to observe the furore [emoji23]

Rarely do we find a situation where so many politicos, journalists and any one with a social media account will have their own version of what they think should happen.

I’m taking the I’ve no idea who’s right and probably everyone’s wrong position [emoji12]

Whole situation is a complete farce IMO.

It’s not often I’ve got sympathy for the Tories, or May, and I’m still not that sympathetic to them but this appears to me to be an impossible negotiation as they’re trying to strike a deal nobody wants. On top of that, all of the opposition will just take the opposite stance to what the Tories are taking, regardless of what deal is put in front of them.

We need out of this mess ASAP.

[Hibernia&Alba]

The strain is showing on Teresa May


https://www.bing.com/th?id=OIP.k9PykK6s0jwgT_Q41VnRRwHaHa&w=213&h=213&c=7&o=5&dpr=1.15&pid=1.7

[Callum_62]

So basically this deal keeps the status quo indefinitely but we just play no part in making the rules

From a remain point of view - why is that bad?


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[steakbake]

I predict that this deal will be kicked out. Thus giving Teresa May no option but to resign. What happens after that is anyone’s guess.

Agreed. At a guess, a hard Brexiteer - Leadsom, Fox or Rees-Mogg would take over as PM and see throughout a no deal Brexit.

In Scotland, devolution will be damaged/neutered or even repealed. It’s going to be time to pick a side soon.

[James310]

So basically this deal keeps the status quo indefinitely but we just play no part in making the rules

From a remain point of view - why is that bad?


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It's probably a good thing, the thing that 48% people wanted?

The leavers got the end to the free movement of people so they should be happy as well as that was the big thing for them.

Win/Win.........

[Slavers]

So basically this deal keeps the status quo indefinitely but we just play no part in making the rules

From a remain point of view - why is that bad?


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I think for some remainers Brexit had to be a complete and utter disaster for the UK then this would have allowed them to feel completely justified in their hysterical reaction to a democratic vote.

[SouthsideHarp_Bhoy]

Whole situation is a complete farce IMO.

It’s not often I’ve got sympathy for the Tories, or May, and I’m still not that sympathetic to them but this appears to me to be an impossible negotiation as they’re trying to strike a deal nobody wants. On top of that, all of the opposition will just take the opposite stance to what the Tories are taking, regardless of what deal is put in front of them.

We need out of this mess ASAP.

I kind of agree with this.

The EU seem happy with the deal, i don't really know what that means.

[Hibernia&Alba]

It's probably a good thing, the thing that 48% people wanted?

The leavers got the end to the free movement of people so they should be happy as well as that was the big thing for them.

Win/Win.........


Yet MPs on both sides of the debate are saying they can't accept this agreement. It seems to offer the ultimate fudge: leave the EU and give up our voting rights, plus hand over 36 billion quid, but agree to a number of important EU rules going forward, which is no use to either side. It's impossible to keep everyone happy in such a divisive situation. I can't see the deal being sanctioned by parliament.

[Smartie]

So basically this deal keeps the status quo indefinitely but we just play no part in making the rules

From a remain point of view - why is that bad?


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You would expect to have rules that suit you better if you had a say in making them.

It's not beyond the bounds of possibility that rules created by others might actually be better than the ones you would impose on yourself (or rules that at least you had a say in the creation of) but it is highly unlikely.

I suppose it isn't far from the (slightly deranged) nationalist viewpoint that we'd be better off failing whilst trying to stand on our own two feet than be moderately successful being run by others.


I'm not mad on the fudge. I would be very much in favour of remaining, but if it was a 1 2 3 situation, I'd want to remain first, go mad no-deal hard Brexit next (and at least attempt to make the best of the "opportunities" that that would bring) then being a rule-taking fudger last.

[JeMeSouviens]

So basically this deal keeps the status quo indefinitely but we just play no part in making the rules

From a remain point of view - why is that bad?


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Status quo until end of 2020 but possible extension. If that extension isn’t taken and the mythical future relationship that allows a soft Irish border isn’t agreed (no chance) then we go to backstop which may well indeed be indefinite. It’s more or less status quo for goods but not for services so will have negative economic impact.

And of course services are 80% of the UK economy.

[Smartie]

Whole situation is a complete farce IMO.

It’s not often I’ve got sympathy for the Tories, or May, and I’m still not that sympathetic to them but this appears to me to be an impossible negotiation as they’re trying to strike a deal nobody wants. On top of that, all of the opposition will just take the opposite stance to what the Tories are taking, regardless of what deal is put in front of them.

We need out of this mess ASAP.

There has been a disgraceful lack of leadership from the conservatives throughout.

Cameron should never have put the referendum on his manifesto. If you ask the people a silly question, you'll get a silly answer. We didn't need that referendum, we could have enjoyed the Tories tearing each other apart over Europe for the next few decades as they like to do, and the rest of us could have just left them to it.

He then had to resign, and his place should have been taken by someone who actually believed in what they were doing. When Boris and the other cretins shrank away into the background to let someone else deal with their mess, Theresa got the opportunity to be PM that an opportunistic Tory couldn't turn down - even if it was to take on an impossible job that she didn't believe in and couldn't succeed in.

In the meantime, the Labour Party remained an unelectable shambles who couldn't capitalise.

Westminster politics is almost as bad as American politics right now. I don't really know how it has come to this, but I'll tell you what - I have infinitely more respect for the Scottish opposition politicians that I would be unlikely to vote for (Davidson, Dugdale, Rennie etc) than I have for that absolute rabble down South.

[Moulin Yarns]

Here is the draft EU withdrawal agreement:
References to Northern Ireland: 100
References to Gibraltar: 30
References to Scotland: 0
References to Wales: 0
https://t.co/Gs4P9rTp8t

All 585 pages

[Bristolhibby]

I think for some remainers Brexit had to be a complete and utter disaster for the UK then this would have allowed them to feel completely justified in their hysterical reaction to a democratic vote.

Or it just is a complete and utter mis-managed, unnessary disaster.

It’s never too late though.

J

[Hibrandenburg]

One poster suggested the eu would be peacekeeping in a uk torn asunder by religious and ethnic conflict a la yugoslavia, which i suggested was ridiculous. Another poster then said it wasnt ridiculous, because we had done it in kosovo and iraq - i then asked if he was suggesting the eu would invade, as we did in kosovo and iraq.

I never said suggested it would happen, the whole discussion is ludicrous.

No he didn't. He suggested it might be a possible scenario that UN peacekeeping forces might be asked to keep the peace on UK soil and some of those forces might be from an EU army. You then seemed to understand that as a prediction of imminent invasion.

[Moulin Yarns]

No he didn't. He suggested it might be a possible scenario that UN peacekeeping forces might be asked to keep the peace on UK soil and some of those forces might be from an EU army. You then seemed to understand that as a prediction of imminent invasion.

And the vast majority of the UN peacekeeping members come from non EU countries 😉

[TheReg!]

Here is the draft EU withdrawal agreement:
References to Northern Ireland: 100
References to Gibraltar: 30
References to Scotland: 0
References to Wales: 0
https://t.co/Gs4P9rTp8t

All 585 pages

References to England: 0

What’s your point?

[Moulin Yarns]

References to England: 0

What’s your point?

Special agreement for Northern Ireland and Gibraltar is the point.

[SouthsideHarp_Bhoy]

No he didn't. He suggested it might be a possible scenario that UN peacekeeping forces might be asked to keep the peace on UK soil and some of those forces might be from an EU army. You then seemed to understand that as a prediction of imminent invasion.

Because he used iraq and kosovo as similar examples - both scenarios where we invaded and engaged in hostilities. I just asked if that was what he meant, i didnt assert that was what would happen, i absolutely dont think it is what happen, its a ludicrous suggestion.

And your original post made no mention of the UN, it referred to an EU army, something you found sound logic, despite such a thing not even existing, never mind being deployed to peacekeep in a neighbouring, non EU country.

But if you believe there is a logic to there being EU army peacekeeper deployed in the UK in the next 20 years, thats your opinion. I think its bat**** crazy. We can just agree to disagree.

[Callum_62]

Special agreement for Northern Ireland and Gibraltar is the point.

And why couldnt we have the same special deal?


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[JeMeSouviens]

And why couldnt we have the same special deal?


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Because it would be good for Scotland. If the ship is going down they want us firmly strapped to the deck.

[speedy_gonzales]

And why couldnt we have the same special deal?


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Land border with EU?

[ronaldo7]

And why couldnt we have the same special deal?


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England

[SHODAN]

And why couldnt we have the same special deal?


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Because Scotland said it liked England in a vote 4 years ago which means we have no say in absolutely anything they do to us ever. Get over it!

[SouthsideHarp_Bhoy]

Because Scotland said it liked England in a vote 4 years ago which means we have no say in absolutely anything they do to us ever. Get over it!

We will have a say when 35 snp mps vote against it, 1 or 2 lib dems, a handful of labour people and possibly a dozen or so tory MPs.

In fact, Scottish MPs could well swing this eithet way depending on arithmetic.

[Callum_62]

Because Scotland said it liked England in a vote 4 years ago which means we have no say in absolutely anything they do to us ever. Get over it!

Did Gib or NI ever say they liked England?


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[GlesgaeHibby]

References to England: 0

What’s your point?

England is mentioned 3 times

[SouthsideHarp_Bhoy]

Did Gib or NI ever say they liked England?


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Hoe many votes in parliament on the deal to gib and NI get?

[RyeSloan]

Did Gib or NI ever say they liked England?


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Well Gib seemed quite happy to maintain the fact that Britain maintained sovereignty over it in 2002...

[SHODAN]

Did Gib or NI ever say they liked England?


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Nope, but they have bargaining power therefore their views are more important!

For the record, I was being facetious. :wink:

[James310]

Raab C Brexit has gone.

[Alex Trager]

Brexit Sec is set to resign now. What a mess this is

[Callum_62]

So the guy that was put in charge to replace the guy that resigned who was in charge has now gone

This is an absolute shamble

Surely we have to try and extend article 50 at the very least until we sort out our own mess


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[JeMeSouviens]

Even May can’t stick this out much longer can she?

Hopefully this is Brexit dying before our eyes.

[stantonhibby]

What a shambles.

I may have missed this but can anyone tell me what the Brexiteers solution to all of this would be taking into account the NI border issue ?

[Moulin Yarns]

What a shambles.

I may have missed this but can anyone tell me what the Brexiteers solution to all of this would be taking into account the NI border issue ?

It probably involves sticking their head in the sand and pressing a BIG RED BUTTON

[JeMeSouviens]

What a shambles.

I may have missed this but can anyone tell me what the Brexiteers solution to all of this would be taking into account the NI border issue ?

Believe more!

[Callum_62]

What a shambles.

I may have missed this but can anyone tell me what the Brexiteers solution to all of this would be taking into account the NI border issue ?

I believe its to use some fancy technology that potentially isn't viable right now

"The EU has been prepared to remove requirements for border inspection but only with countries that have adopted its rules.
Switzerland is an example - it modifies its laws in response to changes in EU legislation and must monitor third-country exports at EU-approved border inspection posts.
So, the sort of equivalence the ERG is hoping for would mean a unique approach by the EU."

[Callum_62]

what the hell is wrong with the British Government though?

Seriously

Chequers - announced as a plan they all back

Next day or so, Davis resigns

Last night - we have an agreement the cabinet backs

Raab resigns

Is there an option to replace the government without a vote?

We are an absolute shambolic mess of a country in terms of politics

[James310]

This will likely fail in parliament if it ever gets there. I can see us going back to the EU and asking for an extension to article 50 and holding another referendum early next year.

Anything else I think will lead to the break up of the UK and years of chaos.

[grunt]

This will likely fail in parliament if it ever gets there. I can see us going back to the EU and asking for an extension to article 50 and holding another referendum early next year.
I hope you're right.

[Callum_62]

W&P secretary Esther McVey has now resigned.

[stokesmessiah]

I hope you're right.

I do not see how it could possibly get through, half the tory party is against it, the DUP are voting against it, the SNP will vote against it and I have seen comments from countless labour MPs saying they could not back the deal.

I am not even convinced now that it will get to a vote.

[ronaldo7]

I do not see how it could possibly get through, half the tory party is against it, the DUP are voting against it, the SNP will vote against it and I have seen comments from countless labour MPs saying they could not back the deal.

I am not even convinced now that it will get to a vote.

It really depends on how many labour MP's vote with the Tories, and keep, Theresa as Pm.

[JeMeSouviens]

W&P secretary Esther McVey has now resigned.

Oh well, if nothing else good comes of today, there's always this. :agree:

[Callum_62]

Junior Brexit minister now resigned.

[Mr Grieves]

What a shambles.

I may have missed this but can anyone tell me what the Brexiteers solution to all of this would be taking into account the NI border issue ?

There's 3 options- May's deal, no deal or no brexit. I'm guessing the ministers that are resigning would be happy with no deal and the chaos it would bring.

[JeMeSouviens]

I do not see how it could possibly get through, half the tory party is against it, the DUP are voting against it, the SNP will vote against it and I have seen comments from countless labour MPs saying they could not back the deal.

I am not even convinced now that it will get to a vote.

I don't either but then again I'm not sure there is a majority for a 2nd ref either? There probably is a majority to stop no deal but I'm not entirely sure of the mechanics of that, I think as it's currently the default position, the government would have to bring legislation to stop it.

Interestingly in 12 days, there is a court case before the ECJ brought by some Scots politicians asking if the UK has the right to unilaterally withdraw its Article 50 letter, thereby cancelling Brexit. The UK gov has been fighting against hearing a judgement on that all the way but as it turns out they might just be glad of it!

[grunt]

I'm guessing the ministers that are resigning would be happy with no deal and the chaos it would bring.
Indeed, it seems the common thread with today's resignations is that they all think TM's deal doesn't cause sufficient damage to the UK and its economy. Madness.

[JeMeSouviens]

May is keeping on carrying on by making a strong and stable statement to the house. This from David Allen Green of the FT:



@davidallengreen

May in Commons just now: "...we could risk no Brexit at all..."

Huge cheer.

Seriously.

[BroxburnHibee]

There will be a leadership challenge soon. Guaranteed. Or she'll quit.

Imagine ending up with Rees-Mogg as PM.

[CropleyWasGod]

There will be a leadership challenge soon. Guaranteed. Or she'll quit.

Imagine ending up with Rees-Mogg as PM.That's the scary scenario.

I have an image of him as a monk from the Spanish Inquisition forcing people to sign the letters of no-confidence.

And, yeah, I do expect that [emoji6]

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[Callum_62]

There will be a leadership challenge soon. Guaranteed. Or she'll quit.

Imagine ending up with Rees-Mogg as PM.

Surely to christ there wouldn't be enough members vote for JRM

[BroxburnHibee]

30 years ago we watched the Tories rip their party apart over the EU. Replaced Thatcher with Major and somehow won the next election.

It's groundhog day.

[hibsbollah]

May is keeping on carrying on by making a strong and stable statement to the house. This from David Allen Green of the FT:

This statement has been going on for over an hour and is absolutely riveting. It's an absolutely historic level of systematic battering of a PM. Never seen anything like it in thirty years of watching politics. Thatcher, Major at least had a cohort behind her. In this case, she seems completely alone. I feel empathy for her on a human level, it feels like six hundred plus MPs against one. Some of the speeches are very good and show there are still quality people at Westminster. Everything is on offer, viciousness, sarcasm, pathos. And people say politics is boring:greengrin

[hibsbollah]

30 years ago we watched the Tories rip their party apart over the EU. Replaced Thatcher with Major and somehow won the next election.

It's groundhog day.

Maastricht treaty 1992, debated in the House in 1993, and you're absolutely right, not much has changed.

[Pretty Boy]

DUP effectively end their support for the government live in the house with Dodds saying they can't back the deal and urging others to reject it.

It's minority government in all but name now. There's no way they can survive this surely. a number of their own MPs, the DUP, the Lib Dems and the SNP all likely to vote against them and surely Labour will do likewise or at least allow a free vote?

[stokesmessiah]

DUP effectively end their support for the government live in the house with Dodds saying they can't back the deal and urging others to reject it.

It's minority government in all but name now. There's no way they can survive this surely. a number of their own MPs, the DUP, the Lib Dems and the SNP all likely to vote against them and surely Labour will do likewise or at least allow a free vote?

It is pretty crazy watching this, I have personally never seen anything like this before.

I just don't know where we go from here - a general election ??

[BroxburnHibee]

DUP effectively end their support for the government live in the house with Dodds saying they can't back the deal and urging others to reject it.

It's minority government in all but name now. There's no way they can survive this surely. a number of their own MPs, the DUP, the Lib Dems and the SNP all likely to vote against them and surely Labour will do likewise or at least allow a free vote?

Surely Corbyn won't back this. Apparently they're announcing their position later. A free vote seems likely

[BroxburnHibee]

Certainly seems like majority of Labour ministers want another vote.

[Callum_62]

Scottish Sec David Mundell confirms he wont resign - SHOCK.

[Pretty Boy]

It is pretty crazy watching this, I have personally never seen anything like this before.

I just don't know where we go from here - a general election ??

It's fascinating to watch in the proverbial slow motion car crash kind of way.

You have to think any party running on a 2nd referendum ticket would win an election with ease. It's the best outcome for all but the most ardent head in the sand Brexiteers.

[bingo70]

Scottish Sec David Mundell confirms he wont resign - SHOCK.

Apologies if this is a daft question but Is Ruth Davidson working just now or is she off on maternity leave?

[stokesmessiah]

It's fascinating to watch in the proverbial slow motion car crash kind of way.

You have to think any party running on a 2nd referendum ticket would win an election with ease. It's the best outcome for all but the most ardent head in the sand Brexiteers.

Ha ha - a nice way to put it!!

With the comments from the DUP this morning, you have to think the opportunity to oust the tories now. Corbyn has been unwilling to nail his colours to a 2nd vote, but I have a funny feeling that will change now.

[Callum_62]

Apologies if this is a daft question but Is Ruth Davidson working just now or is she off on maternity leave?

Maternity leave- she also threatened to quit in the joint letter by her and Mundell.

[hibsbollah]

'Sit down, you disloyal twerp' Some old aristocratic boy just muttered at his Tory colleague:aok:

[Hibrandenburg]

I think she's just beginning to realise now that the knives are out. Her voice is starting to betray her emotional state. I really think she believed she'd get backing for this cluster****. It's like watching hyenas ripping at the carcass of a gazelle.

[BroxburnHibee]

You have to imagine once this debate is over and she takes stock in number 10 she'll realise this so called deal is dead.

No way she wins the vote so I expect her resignation before the vote.

[Hibrandenburg]

Next resignation:

Larry the Downing Street cat has resigned stating concerns about supplies of warm creme.

[hibsbollah]

Next resignation:

Larry the Downing Street cat has resigned stating concerns about supplies of warm creme.

Alex McLeish and May currently in race to see who can get the most call offs, the Tories ahead of the Scottish National Team at the moment with six resignations in one morning.

[lord bunberry]

This is a complete ****ing shambles. Scotland doesn’t have to be dragged down with this sinking ship. It’s time to call Indy 2.

[Callum_62]

May just asked him Gilbralter was briefed before the Scottish Government

Worse than that, she was asked, if as reported this morning, that the Scottish Conservatives were briefed before the Scottish Goverment

She didnt answer the question

[Moulin Yarns]

So the guy that was put in charge to replace the guy that resigned who was in charge has now gone

This is an absolute shamble

Surely we have to try and extend article 50 at the very least until we sort out our own mess


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To lose one Brexit minister may be regarded as a misfortune; to lose both looks like carelessness.

[Moulin Yarns]

W&P secretary Esther McVey has now resigned.

:thumbsup::bye::partyhibb:woohoo:

[The Harp Awakes]

This is a complete ****ing shambles. Scotland doesn’t have to be dragged down with this sinking ship. It’s time to call Indy 2.

And so we have it. The UK Tory government self-destructing before our eyes with Unionists at each other's throats. Corbyn and the Labour Party flapping about all over the place, and the Lib Dems nowhere to be seen.

A perfect storm for Nicola and the SNP. The beginning of the end for the Union. Can't wait.

[Pretty Boy]

They should draft in Michael Buffer for Question Time tonight. It's going to be a riot.

[Jones28]

They should draft in Michael Buffer for Question Time tonight. It's going to be a riot.

It's going to be a car crash.

A metaphor for this whole sorry shambles.

[BroxburnHibee]

So Rees-Mogg has put his letter in. No way would he do that without knowing the rest of the 48 letters had already been written.

[lord bunberry]

And so we have it. The UK Tory government self-destructing before our eyes with Unionists at each other's throats. Corbyn and the Labour Party flapping about all over the place, and the Lib Dems nowhere to be seen.

A perfect storm for Nicola and the SNP. The beginning of the end for the Union. Can't wait.
They need to get on with imo. There could be transition from leaving the UK to Joining the EU that wouldn’t leave us in no mans land for a period if we do it soon.

[IGRIGI]

May gets ousted, Rees Mogg balls deep in for the no deal, and in amongst the cluster**** we call Indyref2.

I'm almost ripping the tap aff it.

[Callum_62]

Gove offered Brexit Sec but turns it down?


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[Moulin Yarns]

July this year, sample 5,000

https://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/EU5.png

Leaving aside undecided voters now, at 54.4% Yes and 45.6% No, this is an 8.8 point lead for “Yes” – about 2 points smaller than the margin of victory for “No” in the Scottish Independence Referendum 2014.


Currently 55% want a second referendum and if an election is called Labour will have a 38 seat majority

Source: Survation

[cabbageandribs1875]

W&P secretary Esther McVey has now resigned.



oddly enough i respect her and all the others for resigning, whereas i have no respect for Mundell and Davidson, although i didn't have respect for the latter two in the first place tbf, even Ross Thomson now urging Mundell " in the gentlist and strongest terms" to resign

[Jones28]

July this year, sample 5,000

https://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/EU5.png

Leaving aside undecided voters now, at 54.4% Yes and 45.6% No, this is an 8.8 point lead for “Yes” – about 2 points smaller than the margin of victory for “No” in the Scottish Independence Referendum 2014.


Currently 55% want a second referendum and if an election is called Labour will have a 38 seat majority

Source: Survation



I still can't get my head around the gap being that small. Who is still in favour of this **** show?

[Callum_62]

That was July - surely a bigger margin now

Read somewhere that Sturgeon has called a presser for 2.30

Think she will let this run a bit longer tho....


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[danhibees1875]

That was July - surely a bigger margin now

Read somewhere that Sturgeon has called a presser for 2.30

Think she will let this run a bit longer tho....


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Channel 4 had something 2 weeks ago where they had conducted the biggest poll since the election, I think 20k people, and it wasn't wider than that I don't think (54/55 in favour of Remain).

[Moulin Yarns]

Channel 4 had something 2 weeks ago where they had conducted the biggest poll since the election, I think 20k people, and it wasn't wider than that I don't think (54/55 in favour of Remain).

That's the survation poll I used above. Under the graphics.

[BroxburnHibee]

May calls a press conference for 5pm.

Resignation?

[Callum_62]

May calls a press conference for 5pm.

Resignation?

Doubt it

Im no lover of May but you have to say she’s resilient

I also think shes trying to navigate a middle ground - in a way a feel slightly sorry her as I think shes in a no win situation here


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[Peevemor]

Doubt it

Im no lover of May but you have to say she’s resilient

I also think shes trying to navigate a middle ground - in a way a feel slightly sorry her as I think shes in a no win situation here


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She knew that when she took the job. Everybody did.

[Smartie]

I still can't get my head around the gap being that small. Who is still in favour of this **** show?

A good many English people.

I actually suspect the vote will have hardened in all the various countries of the U.K. - England being more in favour than ever, and everyone else against.

[heretoday]

Doubt it

Im no lover of May but you have to say she’s resilient

I also think shes trying to navigate a middle ground - in a way a feel slightly sorry her as I think shes in a no win situation here


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So do I. She's had it though. She's too Old School for these bloodsuckers.

[JeMeSouviens]

A good many English people.

I actually suspect the vote will have hardened in all the various countries of the U.K. - England being more in favour than ever, and everyone else against.

Nope, in latest polls swing to remain is across the board.

[Just Alf]

May just asked him Gilbralter was briefed before the Scottish Government

Worse than that, she was asked, if as reported this morning, that the Scottish Conservatives were briefed before the Scottish Goverment

She didnt answer the questionIn a lot of the interviews I've seen recently when they were talking about this being divisive I always found it strange the tories seemed to mention within the party 1st rather than the country.

And here was me thinking they were governing the country on behalf of all of us.

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[Smartie]

Nope, in latest polls swing to remain is across the board.

We're the polls you saw by region?

I appreciate that the polls have swung towards remain overall.

[Hibrandenburg]

Gove offered Brexit Sec but turns it down?


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The biggest slimeball and conniving wee slug ever. He says yes but in reality it's a no because there's no way the EU would agree to tear up 2 years worth of negotiations and start again.

[Moulin Yarns]

We're the polls you saw by region?

I appreciate that the polls have swung towards remain overall.

Look at the survation site. All the details are there. 20,000 sample and I think it's broken down by constituency and regions. On my phone now so can't be more helpful.

[JeMeSouviens]

We're the polls you saw by region?

I appreciate that the polls have swung towards remain overall.

Yes, the C4/Survation poll for their recent tv show is broken down to council areas.

Here's the visual format:

2016
https://fournews-assets-prod-s3-ew1-nmprod.s3.amazonaws.com/media/2018/11/survey2016.png


Now
https://fournews-assets-prod-s3-ew1-nmprod.s3.amazonaws.com/media/2018/11/survey2018.png

[Callum_62]

May vows to stay on


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[BroxburnHibee]

May vows to stay on


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Last throw of the dice from her. Cant see it working.

Leadership challenge probably confirmed tomorrow

[GlesgaeHibby]

Last throw of the dice from her. Cant see it working.

Leadership challenge probably confirmed tomorrow

Yep. She's shown some amount of resilience, and will no doubt fight the challenge that's coming her way.

[stokesmessiah]

Yep. She's shown some amount of resilience, and will no doubt fight the challenge that's coming her way.

And win!

[Jones28]

Yes, the C4/Survation poll for their recent tv show is broken down to council areas.

Here's the visual format:

2016
https://fournews-assets-prod-s3-ew1-nmprod.s3.amazonaws.com/media/2018/11/survey2016.png


Now
https://fournews-assets-prod-s3-ew1-nmprod.s3.amazonaws.com/media/2018/11/survey2018.png

That is mental

[G B Young]

Yes, the C4/Survation poll for their recent tv show is broken down to council areas.

Here's the visual format:

2016
https://fournews-assets-prod-s3-ew1-nmprod.s3.amazonaws.com/media/2018/11/survey2016.png


Now
https://fournews-assets-prod-s3-ew1-nmprod.s3.amazonaws.com/media/2018/11/survey2018.png

What is the point of these sort of polls? It's not like a general election where you get a chance every five years to change your vote. This was a one-off and at the time of the vote a majority voted in favour of leaving the EU. Like it or not that's the way democracy works in the UK.

[Callum_62]

What is the point of these sort of polls? It's not like a general election where you get a chance every five years to change your vote. This was a one-off and at the time of the vote a majority voted in favour of leaving the EU. Like it or not that's the way democracy works in the UK.

Maybe not in this case however with the divided house and the now shifting “democracy”


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[G B Young]

Yep. She's shown some amount of resilience, and will no doubt fight the challenge that's coming her way.

I saw a lot of the TV coverage today and having never been convinced by her before, I was impressed by the way she spoke - during both the three-hour Commons grilling and her subsequent press statement. Much tougher and speaking more from the heart than I've seen before. Certainly no sign of the 'May-bot'. Guys like Corbyn and Blackford (who seems to get portlier and oilier than Angus Robertson by the day) looked like little more than whining opportunists seeking to advance their only their own narrow agendas. Plus I just read she had to fit in 70th birthday drinks with Prince Charles in between which must have been rather surreal! She deserves to see off any leadership challenge though I wonder if Rees-Mogg has overplayed his hand as it's now being rumoured the Brexiteers haven't managed to get the numbers required to trigger a challenge.

[Fife-Hibee]

What is the point of these sort of polls? It's not like a general election where you get a chance every five years to change your vote. This was a one-off and at the time of the vote a majority voted in favour of leaving the EU. Like it or not that's the way democracy works in the UK.

It's also the way sheer stupidity works. Lets vote for something that there is no detail on, then have regrets about it later due to the lack of detail.

We're in political union with this lot.

[Scorrie]

I saw a lot of the TV coverage today and having never been convinced by her before, I was impressed by the way she spoke - during both the three-hour Commons grilling and her subsequent press statement. Much tougher and speaking more from the heart than I've seen before. Certainly no sign of the 'May-bot'. Guys like Corbyn and Blackford (who seems to get portlier and oilier than Angus Robertson by the day) looked like little more than whining opportunists seeking to advance their only their own narrow agendas. Plus I just read she had to fit in 70th birthday drinks with Prince Charles in between which must have been rather surreal! She deserves to see off any leadership challenge though I wonder if Rees-Mogg has overplayed his hand as it's now being rumoured the Brexiteers haven't managed to get the numbers required to trigger a challenge.

Think you’re right about Mogg. Today was their opportunity and it didn’t happen. What they do now I don’t know but for now their chance has gone

[stokesmessiah]

Ha ha - a nice way to put it!!

With the comments from the DUP this morning, you have to think the opportunity to oust the tories now. Corbyn has been unwilling to nail his colours to a 2nd vote, but I have a funny feeling that will change now.

Called it!

[Pretty Boy]

I'm not buying this 'resilient May' and 'new found respect' pish that is creeping into the media and social media narrative.

She was an opportunistic spectator throughout the referendum, a vulture who waited to see how things turned out to further her own ambitions. She knew the job she took on was impossible and so it has proven. Any galvanising of support from within her party is borne from a misplaced partisan loyalty; exactly what got us into this mess in the 1st place.

**** her and **** her party. We have the basis of actual facts now so let the people decide based on that rather than sensationalised claims and inflammatory narrative from dangerous ideologues dressed up as buffoons, self interested nobodies and utter ****s like Rees-Mogg.

[McSwanky]

I'm not buying this 'resilient May' and 'new found respect' pish that is creeping into the media and social media narrative.

She was an opportunistic spectator throughout the referendum, a vulture who waited to see how things turned out to further her own ambitions. She knew the job she took on was impossible and so it has proven. Any galvanising of support from within her party is borne from a misplaced partisan loyalty; exactly what got us into this mess in the 1st place.

**** her and **** her party.Spot on.

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[Just Alf]

When all said and done, a little over half the population voted to leave, unfortunately they've ignored the other (Just under) half, the 'losers' and acted as if it was a unanimous vote.

I guess from one perspective you reap what you sow.

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[Glory Lurker]

The rest of the world must be looking in at this shambles in astoundment. There is nothing, not one thing, that redeems it. So glad I don’t consider myself British or I’d be poleaxed with embarrassment.

[Moulin Yarns]

What is the point of these sort of polls? It's not like a general election where you get a chance every five years to change your vote. This was a one-off and at the time of the vote a majority voted in favour of leaving the EU. Like it or not that's the way democracy works in the UK.

Did you know what the Brexit deal was 2 years ago?

[Hibrandenburg]

The Tories have failed:

The people of Scotland
Northern Ireland
The disabled
The poor
British Citizens living in the EU
EU citizens living in the UK
Larry the cat
The British tourist industry
The British car industry
The British fishing industry
Ex Soldiers
The homeless
Pensioners
Students
The NHS
The police
Brexiteers
Remainers


Who have they actually aided?:

????????

[stokesmessiah]

The Tories have failed:

The people of Scotland
Northern Ireland
The disabled
The poor
British Citizens living in the EU
EU citizens living in the UK
Larry the cat
The British tourist industry
The British car industry
The British fishing industry
Ex Soldiers
The homeless
Pensioners
Students
The NHS
The police
Brexiteers
Remainders


Who have they actually aided?:

????????

Themselves as usual.

[lord bunberry]

I'm not buying this 'resilient May' and 'new found respect' pish that is creeping into the media and social media narrative.

She was an opportunistic spectator throughout the referendum, a vulture who waited to see how things turned out to further her own ambitions. She knew the job she took on was impossible and so it has proven. Any galvanising of support from within her party is borne from a misplaced partisan loyalty; exactly what got us into this mess in the 1st place.

**** her and **** her party. We have the basis of actual facts now so let the people decide based on that rather than sensationalised claims and inflammatory narrative from dangerous ideologues dressed up as buffoons, self interested nobodies and utter ****s like Rees-Mogg.
:top marksShe’s spent the last two years doing everything in her power to keep herself in her job. She called a pointless general election to bolster her position and it backfired. She keeps talking about the national interest, but she isn’t governing in the national interest, she’s trying to hold her divided party together.

[Hibbyradge]

When all said and done, a little over half the population voted to leave, unfortunately they've ignored the other (Just under) half, the 'losers' and acted as if it was a unanimous vote.

I guess from one perspective you reap what you sow.

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It wasn't even close to half the population. :wink:

[cabbageandribs1875]

i read this pretty accurate article a few weeks back about exactly what theresa may is all about, it's hard to disagree with it, she's wanted a softish brexit all along and i doubt she's actually fooled anyone the last few months with her 'brexit means brexit' crap

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/oct/30/theresa-may-lie-and-lied-to-become-prime-minister?CMP=share_btn_fb&fbclid=IwAR0Ix9f_kfqX9FHzn3Re0U5jTgB1zSqs72Vs_XETD AZ6QOnYbHFSd3ENzPY



Now she is a prime minister of pretences, running a government where feelings matter more than fact. She pretends that we should leave the EU, even though she knows we should remain a member of the single market. She offers us the illusion that we are taking back control, even as we lose our freedom to act. She cuts deals in secret, in the hope that the public will never realise that her land of make-believe is an expensive place to live.

[Ryan69]

What is the point of these sort of polls? It's not like a general election where you get a chance every five years to change your vote. This was a one-off and at the time of the vote a majority voted in favour of leaving the EU. Like it or not that's the way democracy works in the UK.

The ever increasing migrant population would probably swing it also...where they shouldnt even have a vote.

I heard Theresa May yesterday say the migrant population is 3,000,000.
Im pretty sure every single one off them that can or should I say will be allowed with no checks....would vote remain.

[The Modfather]

The ever increasing migrant population would probably swing it also...where they shouldnt even have a vote.

I heard Theresa May yesterday say the migrant population is 3,000,000.
Im pretty sure every single one off them that can or should I say will be allowed with no checks....would vote remain.

Why shouldn’t someone living here and paying taxes have a say in what happens here?

[Smartie]

The ever increasing migrant population would probably swing it also...where they shouldnt even have a vote.

I heard Theresa May yesterday say the migrant population is 3,000,000.
Im pretty sure every single one off them that can or should I say will be allowed with no checks....would vote remain.

Bloody foreigners. Coming over here, registering to vote and taking part in the democratic process and trying to influence things in a way that would help them and those like them.

[Callum_62]

Why shouldn’t someone living here and paying taxes have a say in what happens here?

Coz there foreign and all of them have zero checks which means they must be terrorists or bludgers or worse!

I wonder how many terror attacks have been committed by migrants to the uk that are foreign nationals

People are terrified of the most ridiculous things


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[Ryan69]

Coz there foreign and all of them have zero checks which means they must be terrorists or bludgers or worse!

I wonder how many terror attacks have been committed by migrants to the uk that are foreign nationals

People are terrified of the most ridiculous things


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

What an idiotic response.

I lived in the Netherlands for 8 years...Never once did I feel the fate of their country should be in my hands.

For your information also....They recieve most taxes back.

[Callum_62]

I lived in the Netherlands for 8 years...Never once did I feel the fate of their country should be in my hands.

For your information also....They recieve most taxes back.

They do? Christ i better tell my financee then - coz shes been contributing to the NHS and governments coffers since 2 months of setting foot in the country - what can she claim back???

Oh and Of course shaping our childrens minds by way of teaching

She is less deserving of a say though, right?


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[McSwanky]

The ever increasing migrant population would probably swing it also...where they shouldnt even have a vote.

I heard Theresa May yesterday say the migrant population is 3,000,000.
Im pretty sure every single one off them that can or should I say will be allowed with no checks....would vote remain.

Wow, pretty big statements there.

Can you provide evidence for:

- "The ever increasing migrant population" - please let us know how the migrant population has changed since the Brexit vote in 2016?
- "allowed with no checks" - what do you actually mean by this?
- "every single one off (sic) them... would vote remain"

I have a friend who also stayed in the Netherlands for a number of years and returned recently, but interestingly he has very different views to you. He seems more willing to treat people as people, rather than labelling them before deciding whether they meet his approval or not.

[Callum_62]

Wow, pretty big statements there.

Can you provide evidence for:

- "The ever increasing migrant population" - please let us know how the migrant population has changed since the Brexit vote in 2016?
- "allowed with no checks" - what do you actually mean by this?
- "every single one off (sic) them... would vote remain"

I have a friend who also stayed in the Netherlands for a number of years and returned recently, but interestingly he has very different views to you. He seems more willing to treat people as people, rather than labelling them before deciding whether they meet his approval or not.

What an idiotic post [emoji1751]*[emoji3603][emoji23][emoji848][emoji15]

[emoji106][emoji2532]


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[BroxburnHibee]

I'm not buying this 'resilient May' and 'new found respect' pish that is creeping into the media and social media narrative.

She was an opportunistic spectator throughout the referendum, a vulture who waited to see how things turned out to further her own ambitions. She knew the job she took on was impossible and so it has proven. Any galvanising of support from within her party is borne from a misplaced partisan loyalty; exactly what got us into this mess in the 1st place.

**** her and **** her party. We have the basis of actual facts now so let the people decide based on that rather than sensationalised claims and inflammatory narrative from dangerous ideologues dressed up as buffoons, self interested nobodies and utter ****s like Rees-Mogg.

Aye all carefully stage managed including making the press conference run 20 minutes late.

Talks about doing what's right for the country. Like the DUP deal the only purpose of it was to keep her and her rotten to the core party in power.

No sympathy whatsoever.

[Ryan69]

They do? Christ i better tell my financee then - coz shes been contributing to the NHS and governments coffers since 2 months of setting foot in the country - what can she claim back???

Oh and Of course shaping our childrens minds by way of teaching

She is less deserving of a say though, right?


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If you dont believe that...check out taxback.com.
Cause its true.

I got my tax back from The Netherlands.,,!,,

[Ryan69]

Wow, pretty big statements there.

Can you provide evidence for:

- "The ever increasing migrant population" - please let us know how the migrant population has changed since the Brexit vote in 2016?
- "allowed with no checks" - what do you actually mean by this?
- "every single one off (sic) them... would vote remain"

I have a friend who also stayed in the Netherlands for a number of years and returned recently, but interestingly he has very different views to you. He seems more willing to treat people as people, rather than labelling them before deciding whether they meet his approval or not.

Theresa May stated that figure in her Commons speech yesterday....So blame her

[CropleyWasGod]

What an idiotic response.

I lived in the Netherlands for 8 years...Never once did I feel the fate of their country should be in my hands.

For your information also....They recieve most taxes back.Expand on your last sentence?

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[McSwanky]

Theresa May stated that figure in her Commons speech yesterday....So blame her

Three things:

1. We both know that's not the question I asked.
2. Do you believe everything that comes out of Theresa May's mouth?
3. Any answers to the three things I asked you to provide evidence for in my earlier post?

[Callum_62]

If you dont believe that...check out taxback.com.
Cause its true.

I got my tax back from The Netherlands.,,!,,

The website doesnt really tell me the rules - youve done it so if you could just explain that would be good

I notice you didnt confirm that a tax paying school teacher doesn’t deserve a say on the country she lives in- with her british partner and child


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[Hibbyradge]

For your information also....They recieve most taxes back.

Where do you get these ideas from?

[SHODAN]

For your information also....They recieve most taxes back.

Really?! I'd better go tell my fiancee then, we must be ****ing rich!

[hibsbollah]

Rees Mogg has his 48 letters, sky news reporting. Whips called back to London, it's going to be a no confidence vote. Meanwhile, nobody is doing Brexit.

[Moulin Yarns]

The ever increasing migrant population would probably swing it also...where they shouldnt even have a vote. I heard Theresa May yesterday say the migrant population is 3,000,000. Im pretty sure every single one off them that can or should I say will be allowed with no checks....would vote remain. 3 Million, similar to the population of NI, out of a total population of almost 67 Million. That would swing it right enough As for the tax rebates from your stay in the Netherlands, was this when you returned home, having over paid tax due to the way it is calculated? #askingforafriend

[bingo70]

Rees Mogg has his 48 letters, sky news reporting. Whips called back to London, it's going to be a no confidence vote. Meanwhile, nobody is doing Brexit.

Excuse my ignorance but what does that mean? Leadership election or likely to be a general election?

[Callum_62]

Excuse my ignorance but what does that mean? Leadership election or likely to be a general election?

Leadership - the tories wont want a gen elec based on recent polling


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[BroxburnHibee]

Excuse my ignorance but what does that mean? Leadership election or likely to be a general election?

It triggers a no confidence vote.

The big question is how many will back her.

I don't think she'd lose the vote to be honest but it's the level of backing she gets which will decide her future.

It may trigger a leadership challenge but I think the rebels would prefer her to resign first.

When Thatcher was challenged she actually won the first round but was gone within days.

[Hibbyradge]

3 Million, similar to the population of NI, out of a total population of almost 67 Million. That would swing it right enough As for the tax rebates from your stay in the Netherlands, was this when you returned home, having over paid tax due to the way it is calculated? #askingforafriend

Wales has about 3m people. NI is less than 2. 👍

[PeeJay]

The ever increasing migrant population would probably swing it also...where they shouldnt even have a vote.

I heard Theresa May yesterday say the migrant population is 3,000,000.
Im pretty sure every single one off them that can or should I say will be allowed with no checks....would vote remain.

I initially assumed you were perhaps referring in your post to the Survation/C4 surveys referenced above as the "migrants" may have been polled for it, however, if by "migrants" you are in fact referring to EU migrants in the context of a referendum vote and you are claiming they would swing a referendum vote one way or the other (although "...they shouldn't get a vote") then you ought to know that they did not vote in the 2016 referendum and they "presumably" would not get a vote in a 2nd referendum either - only EU citizens from Ireland (SR), Malta & Cyprus (CW) were entitled to vote in the 2016 UK EU referendum - so how are they going to swing it?

​https://www.gov.uk/government/topical-events/eu-referendum/about#who-can-vote-in-the-referendum

"Who can vote in the referendum?
British, Irish and Commonwealth citizens aged 18 or over who are resident in the UK or Gibraltar will be eligible to vote. UK citizens resident overseas will also be eligible to vote, provided they have been registered to vote at a UK address in the last 15 years."

Let me know if I'm wrong!

[danhibees1875]

I initially assumed you were perhaps referring in your post to the Survation/C4 surveys referenced above as the "migrants" may have been polled for it, however, if by "migrants" you are in fact referring to EU migrants in the context of a referendum vote and you are claiming they would swing a referendum vote one way or the other (although "...they shouldn't get a vote") then you ought to know that they did not vote in the 2016 referendum and they "presumably" would not get a vote in a 2nd referendum either - only EU citizens from Ireland (SR), Malta & Cyprus (CW) were entitled to vote in the 2016 UK EU referendum - so how are they going to swing it?

​https://www.gov.uk/government/topical-events/eu-referendum/about#who-can-vote-in-the-referendum

"Who can vote in the referendum?
British, Irish and Commonwealth citizens aged 18 or over who are resident in the UK or Gibraltar will be eligible to vote. UK citizens resident overseas will also be eligible to vote, provided they have been registered to vote at a UK address in the last 15 years."

Let me know if I'm wrong!

My take on the post was that they would swing polling done by Survation etc as these companies wouldn't check the eligibility to vote of the individual, but would have no impact on the actual referendum as they couldn't, wrongly IMO, vote in that one.

If there is a correlation between being an immigrant and wanting to remain - which is probably a reasonable one - then it would make sense that polls across everyone would be more remain heavy than any referendum re-run.

3.8M EU citizens in the UK wouldn't have got a vote - that's 5% of the population, and I'd imagine they might be skewed to being more likely to be over 18 and therefore an even larger % of those who would have (could have, I don't know for sure) been included in any polls.

[PeeJay]

My take on the post was that they would swing polling done by Survation etc as these companies wouldn't check the eligibility to vote of the individual, but would have no impact on the actual referendum as they couldn't, wrongly IMO, vote in that one.

If there is a correlation between being an immigrant and wanting to remain - which is probably a reasonable one - then it would make sense that polls across everyone would be more remain heavy than any referendum re-run.

3.8M EU citizens in the UK wouldn't have got a vote - that's 5% of the population, and I'd imagine they might be skewed to being more likely to be over 18 and therefore an even larger % of those who would have (could have, I don't know for sure) been included in any polls.

Fair points - just wasn't sure who the wording of the thread and post was actually aimed at ... think some of the responses showed it wasn't always taken as possibly meant?

Yeah, they don't have to or can't check the "eligibility" of individuals and they have no way of knowing if the answers given are honest/correct or not of course ...

[Moulin Yarns]

Gove remaining as environment Secretary.

[JeMeSouviens]

3 way polling on deal/no-deal/remain, both published within the last 24 hours.

Sky Data:

Remain 54%
No deal 32%
Deal 14%


Survation/Daily Mail:

Remain 49%
No deal 32%
Deal 18%


Hopefully this becomes the norm!

[Moulin Yarns]

Sounds like the 48 letters are in.Vote of no confidence and challenge to May's position immanent.

[Callum_62]

So 1 in 3 folk want no deal - about the same as voted leave in Scotland


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[Ryan69]

I initially assumed you were perhaps referring in your post to the Survation/C4 surveys referenced above as the "migrants" may have been polled for it, however, if by "migrants" you are in fact referring to EU migrants in the context of a referendum vote and you are claiming they would swing a referendum vote one way or the other (although "...they shouldn't get a vote") then you ought to know that they did not vote in the 2016 referendum and they "presumably" would not get a vote in a 2nd referendum either - only EU citizens from Ireland (SR), Malta & Cyprus (CW) were entitled to vote in the 2016 UK EU referendum - so how are they going to swing it?

​https://www.gov.uk/government/topical-events/eu-referendum/about#who-can-vote-in-the-referendum

"Who can vote in the referendum?
British, Irish and Commonwealth citizens aged 18 or over who are resident in the UK or Gibraltar will be eligible to vote. UK citizens resident overseas will also be eligible to vote, provided they have been registered to vote at a UK address in the last 15 years."

Let me know if I'm wrong!

I know of many Polish and Spanish people that did vote.
They dont seem todo many checks as to how long you have been here.

[Ryan69]

Three things:

1. We both know that's not the question I asked.
2. Do you believe everything that comes out of Theresa May's mouth?
3. Any answers to the three things I asked you to provide evidence for in my earlier post?

She does make up alot of crap...But she definately stated the 3 million figure yesterday.

[McSwanky]

She does make up alot of crap...But she definately stated the 3 million figure yesterday.

Ryan.

At no point did I dispute the 3 million figure. I was asking you to back up the other wild claims you made in your original post.

[Callum_62]

Im much more interested to find out how I can get all this tax back from the years of my missus work

Ryan69 - help me out here



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[stokesmessiah]

A momentous time in British Politics and there is some really interesting chat on here....Can the petty bickering maybe be shifted to one of the many transfer threads?

[PeeJay]

I know of many Polish and Spanish people that did vote.
They dont seem todo many checks as to how long you have been here.

Maybe they had taken out UK citizenship? I know Poles, Russians, Brazilians etc. that have done that?

[Callum_62]

A momentous time in British Politics and there is some really interesting chat on here....Can the petty bickering maybe be shifted to one of the many transfer threads?

Wheres the bickering? Its a genuine point

If someone thinks “they” immigrants can come here and not pay any or very little in the way of tax- that may slightly influence there voting intentions

Hell if it were true, it would influence me and im marrying one


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[Slavers]

I don't know about specifics of tax returns or that but I do know that migration is a tool used by the left to bolster their support base.

Tony Blair did this in the 90s and the left have been promoting this ever since.

[Moulin Yarns]

Wheres the bickering? Its a genuine point

If someone thinks “they” immigrants come come here and not pay any or very little in the way of tax- that may slightly influence there voting intentions

Hell if it were true, it would influence me and im marrying one


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Oh so true..

Our findings show that immigrants to the UK who arrived since 2000, and for whom we observe their entire migration history, have made consistently positive fiscal contributions regardless of their area of origin. Between 2001 and 2011 recent immigrants from the A10 countries contributed to the fiscal system about 12% more than they took out, with a net fiscal contribution of about £5 billion. At the same time the net fiscal contributions of recent European immigrants from the rest of the EU totalled £15bn, with fiscal payments about 64% higher than transfers received. Immigrants from outside the EU countries made a net fiscal contribution of about £5.2 billion, thus paying into the system about 3% more than they took out. In contrast, over the same period, natives made an overall negative fiscal contribution of £616.5 billion. The net fiscal balance of overall immigration to the UK between 2001 and 2011 amounts therefore to a positive net contribution of about £25 billion, over a period over which the UK has run an overall budget deficit.
Our analysis thus suggests that – rather than being a drain on the UK’s fiscal system – immigrants arriving since the early 2000s have made a net contributions to its public finances, a reality that contrasts starkly with the view often maintained in public debate.

This conclusion is further supported by our evidence on the degree to which immigrants receive tax credits and benefits compared with natives. Recent immigrants are 43% (17 percentage points) less likely to receive state benefits or tax credits. These differences are partly attributable to immigrants’ more favourable age-gender composition. However, even when compared with natives of the same age, gender composition, and education, recent immigrants are still 39% less likely than natives to receive benefits.

We also point out that recent immigrants, by sharing the cost public expenditures insensitive to population size (such as defence) which account for 16% of total public expenditure, reduced the financial burden of these fixed public obligations for natives by about £8.5bn over the period 2001-2011.

Additionally, our research points at the strong educational background of immigrants. For instance, while by 2011, the percentage of natives with a degree was 24%, that of EEA and non-EEA immigrants was 35% and 41%, respectively. Similarly, about one in two native born individuals fall into the “low education” category (defined as those who left full- time education before 17), while only 21% of EEA immigrants and 23% of non-EEA immigrants do so.

Furthermore, most immigrants arrive in the UK after completing their education abroad, and thus at a point in their lifetime where the discounted net value of their future net fiscal payments is positive. If the UK had to provide to each immigrant the level of education they have acquired in their home country (and use productively in the UK, as natives do), the costs would be substantial. Our estimates indicate that recent immigrants endowed the country with productive human capital between 2000 and 2011 that would have cost the UK £6.8bn in spending on education. This aspect is often neglected in the debate about the costs and benefits of immigration.

[hibsbollah]

A momentous time in British Politics and there is some really interesting chat on here....Can the petty bickering maybe be shifted to one of the many transfer threads?

This thread is a microcosm of how totally crap the Holy ground has become. Whether the right wing conspiracy pish spouters really believe the nonsense theyre coming up with, or whether they are sitting in their pants in a windowless room in Lithuania following orders for minimum wage, dreaming of being a Russian bot, is a moot point.

[McSwanky]

A momentous time in British Politics and there is some really interesting chat on here....Can the petty bickering maybe be shifted to one of the many transfer threads?To be fair, I think it's important that those who make statements should be tasked with backing them up with facts. Call it petty bickering if you like, I must disagree.

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[Smartie]

https://youtu.be/tKEsyIuTrO8

Probably a good place to bring this up again.

[Hibrandenburg]

I don't know about specifics of tax returns or that but I do know that migration is a tool used by the left to bolster their support base.

Tony Blair did this in the 90s and the left have been promoting this ever since.

Aye, because they're asked what their political leanings are before being allowed entry. :rolleyes:

[McSwanky]

https://youtu.be/tKEsyIuTrO8

Probably a good place to bring this up again.

:top marks

Stewart Lee is my favourite General Ratko Mladic lookalike (even if he is a bit fat).

[stokesmessiah]

To be fair, I think it's important that those who make statements should be tasked with backing them up with facts. Call it petty bickering if you like, I must disagree.

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I absolutely agree - IMO that is not what was happening here.

[McSwanky]

I absolutely agree - IMO that is not what was happening here.

...Then I'll conclude that I wrongly assumed that your comment was aimed at me (amongst others) and quietly retreat again. :greengrin

[Hibbyradge]

I know of many Polish and Spanish people that did vote.
They dont seem todo many checks as to how long you have been here.

No you don't.

There are plenty checks as to eligibility.

I wasn't sure if you were posting stuff you'd been tricked into believing or deliberately making stuff up.

I now believe it's the latter.

[James310]

It will be alright.

https://youtu.be/T72TopWbXJg

[Ryan69]

No you don't.

There are plenty checks as to eligibility.

I wasn't sure if you were posting stuff you'd been tricked into believing or deliberately making stuff up.

I now believe it's the latter.

How do I prove this too you???

Will I get someone to give you a call to verify it?

Ask some migrants if they have voted in this country yet...You will be surprised with your results.

Not saying they all are...But some people somehow do!

[CropleyWasGod]

How do I prove this too you???

Will I get someone to give you a call to verify it?

Ask some migrants if they have voted in this country yet...You will be surprised with your results.

Not saying they all are...But some people somehow do!

To be fair, that is not what you originally said. You specifically mentioned the referendum. "I know of many Polish and Spanish people that did vote."

Any word on the tax question yet?

[Hibbyradge]

How do I prove this too you???

Will I get someone to give you a call to verify it?

Ask some migrants if they have voted in this country yet...You will be surprised with your results.

Not saying they all are...But some people somehow do!

You make stuff up in nearly every discussion.

Today it's that migrants get their tax back and that they voted in the referendum.

There are a lot of examples of when you've been shown to be wrong, but you continue posting these utterly incredible claims.

I used to think that you were naive and being influenced by others. I now believe that you do it deliberately.

[Callum_62]

How do I prove this too you???

Will I get someone to give you a call to verify it?

Ask some migrants if they have voted in this country yet...You will be surprised with your results.

Not saying they all are...But some people somehow do!

Ofcourse migrants can vote here in Gen Elections etc - why wouldn’t they be allowed to, they live here

Still waiting on this tax rebate info, it will make our wedding much more affordable so please share ASAP


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[PeeJay]

Of course migrants can vote here in Gen Elections etc - why wouldn’t they be allowed to, they live here




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Living in the UK "as a migrant" entitles you to vote in general elections ????????

[Callum_62]

Living in the UK "as a migrant" entitles you to vote in general elections ????????

Depending in where u came from - yes

But its not across the board

https://www.yourvotematters.co.uk/can-i-vote/who-can-register-to-vote


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[PeeJay]

Depending in where u came from - yes

But its not across the board

https://www.yourvotematters.co.uk/can-i-vote/who-can-register-to-vote


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So when you say "...of course" and "yes" you mean maybe or maybe not? :greengrin

[JeMeSouviens]

Stephen Barclay (I don't know either) new Brexit secretary.

Amber Rudd back in cabinet, Work & Pensions.

[Callum_62]

So when you say "...of course" and "yes" you mean maybe or maybe not? :greengrin

Well D’uh! [emoji23]

My mistake thinking that all would be given the same rights as my partner - altho the list that can vote is pretty extensive


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[Moulin Yarns]

Stephen Barclay (I don't know either) new Brexit secretary.

Amber Rudd back in cabinet, Work & Pensions.

Rather have Bill Barclay :wink:

[JeMeSouviens]

Rather have Bill Barclay :wink:

Seemingly the PM can bank on his loyalty.

[JeMeSouviens]

Meanwhile, the coup is in full swing ...

Steve Baker, ERG:

9am

We're over 48 with an extra dozen as well

11am

I think we are close to 48

2pm

We may not get 48 until next week

[BroxburnHibee]

Stephen Barclay (I don't know either) new Brexit secretary.

Amber Rudd back in cabinet, Work & Pensions.

So 6 months after resigning after misleading parliament she gets another job. What a farce!

[JeMeSouviens]

So 6 months after resigning after misleading parliament she gets another job. What a farce!

:agree: Unreal - May ditched her because she'd made sucha mess of clearing up May's mess (Windrush). The mess remains messy while May soldiers on and Rudd slithers back in. Shameless. :rolleyes:

[IGRIGI]

Does anyone work in the building trade here?

If we'd seen white collar environments flooded with cheap Eastern European labour with the implications that come with that I'd imagine we'd see a lot less smugness on here.

I wish the social justice warriors would have the testicles to say the ideas they push are fine as long as they are not the ones being shafted.

[Smartie]

Does anyone work in the building trade here?

If we'd seen white collar environments flooded with cheap Eastern European labour with the implications that come with that I'd imagine we'd see a lot less smugness on here.

I wish the social justice warriors would have the testicles to say the ideas they push are fine as long as they are not the ones being shafted.

White collar workers are also affected and are faced with a choice - go extinct, go down the right wing politics/ UKIP/ Brexit route, or capitalise on the advantages you naturally have over migrants by being from here in the first place.

My line of work saw widespread recruitment from Eastern Europe over the past couple of decades.

I had to raise my game.