Brexit - what will happen next

[SHODAN]

Mail on Sunday saying the same. Gove in charge and ready to do a deal with Labour to stay in CU and SM.


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I would absolutely take that. Get the whole thing over with, is technically "Brexit" whilst not actually being Brexit, and would therefore stave off the majority of the economic damage, keep our freedom of movement (number one thing for me), royally **** off leavers and still allow Sturgeon to hold an indyref2 on grounds that we were dragged out of the EU.

[Tornadoes70]

I would absolutely take that. Get the whole thing over with, is technically "Brexit" whilst not actually being Brexit, and would therefore stave off the majority of the economic damage, keep our freedom of movement (number one thing for me), royally **** off leavers and still allow Sturgeon to hold an indyref2 on grounds that we were dragged out of the EU.

That would cause yet more division and chaos within an already fractured Scotland thats being very badly run by the snp/greens and if separatism/independence ever did actually occur it would create cuts and austerity that would make the tories look like generous benefactors by comparison.

The Eu is on a downward spiral and like Jeremy I would care to shift from that which would allow for us to invest heavily in re nationalisation and wrest back control to the state failing uber capatilist private industries, services and franchises.

I note Jeremy has been criticised on here for being cautious to commit to any rash decision making on brexit that was the tories doing well what about the prevarication from the snp on what currency to use.

Jeremy has been shown to be a wiser and much more skillful a politician than most thought he was.

Mon Labour!!!

[GlesgaeHibby]

That would cause yet more division and chaos within an already fractured Scotland thats being very badly run by the snp/greens and if separatism/independence ever did actually occur it would create cuts and austerity that would make the tories look like generous benefactors by comparison.

The Eu is on a downward spiral and like Jeremy I would care to shift from that which would allow for us to invest heavily in re nationalisation and wrest back control to the state failing uber capatilist private industries, services and franchises.

I note Jeremy has been criticised on here for being cautious to commit to any rash decision making on brexit that was the tories doing well what about the prevarication from the snp on what currency to use.

Jeremy has been shown to be a wiser and much more skillful a politician than most thought he was.

Mon Labour!!!

If the SNP are making such an arse of running the country, surely labour should be capable of laying a glove on them. Instead they have gormless Richard Leonard who still doesn't have an answer to what he would cut to give local authorities extra funding. Labour are dead in Scotland and they have nobody to blame but themselves.

[Jack]

That would cause yet more division and chaos within an already fractured Scotland thats being very badly run by the snp/greens and if separatism/independence ever did actually occur it would create cuts and austerity that would make the tories look like generous benefactors by comparison.

The Eu is on a downward spiral and like Jeremy I would care to shift from that which would allow for us to invest heavily in re nationalisation and wrest back control to the state failing uber capatilist private industries, services and franchises.

I note Jeremy has been criticised on here for being cautious to commit to any rash decision making on brexit that was the tories doing well what about the prevarication from the snp on what currency to use.

Jeremy has been shown to be a wiser and much more skillful a politician than most thought he was.

Mon Labour!!!

You've said it all before. It was crap then and it's crap now.

You're dear leader Jeremy has shown himself up to be a coward again, devoid of original thought. On the odd occasion he does evolve to the upright position he walks with the torys.

[Tornadoes70]

Erse

Being at least civil costs nothing. If you can't argue a case there's no need to insult folk who're simply arguing for their own.

Mon Labour!!!

[stoneyburn hibs]

Being at least civil costs nothing. If you can't argue a case there's no need to insult folk who're simply arguing for their own.

Mon Labour!!!

Erse

[Ozyhibby]

You've said it all before. It was crap then and it's crap now.

You're dear leader Jeremy has shown himself up to be a coward again, devoid of original thought. On the odd occasion he does evolve to the upright position he walks with the torys.

Coward? He was doing some really really important constituency canvasing today in Morcambe for local elections. We maybe in a constitutional crisis but at least Labour are focusing on making sure they win Morcambe town hall.


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[Tornadoes70]

Erse


Wow, terrific campaigning on behalf of the snp/greens/independeteers from Stoneyburn hibs.

If you don't agree with Stoneyburn hibs you're officially branded an 'erse'.

Crazy maybe?

Mon Labour!!

[cabbageandribs1875]

Erse


this X 41242859328593468945

[Tornadoes70]

this X 41242859328593468945

Excellent campaigning from snp/greens/independeteers!

Nothing to say but sneering and weirdness.

Wow, even I thought you lot were better than this bs.

The sooner our folk return to our non weirdness Labour party the sooner Scotland is calmer and much more civil to each other.

Mon Labour!!!

[Moulin Yarns]

Excellent campaigning from snp/greens/independeteers!

Nothing to say but sneering and weirdness.

Wow, even I thought you lot were better than this bs.

The sooner our folk return to our non weirdness Labour party the sooner Scotland is calmer and much more civil to each other.

Mon Labour!!!

Troll

[McD]

Wow, terrific campaigning on behalf of the snp/greens/independeteers from Stoneyburn hibs.

If you don't agree with Stoneyburn hibs you're officially branded an 'erse'.

Crazy maybe?

Mon Labour!!


No, it’s just you

[McD]

That would cause yet more division and chaos within an already fractured Scotland thats being very badly run by the snp/greens and if separatism/independence ever did actually occur it would create cuts and austerity that would make the tories look like generous benefactors by comparison.

The Eu is on a downward spiral and like Jeremy I would care to shift from that which would allow for us to invest heavily in re nationalisation and wrest back control to the state failing uber capatilist private industries, services and franchises.

I note Jeremy has been criticised on here for being cautious to commit to any rash decision making on brexit that was the tories doing well what about the prevarication from the snp on what currency to use.

Jeremy has been shown to be a wiser and much more skillful a politician than most thought he was.

Mon Labour!!!



Jeremy has been shown to be a pathetic, useless, self serving goat.

And you have shown yourself as a living breathing Jeremy fan boy who ignores or summarily rejects any criticism of Corbyn because it doesn’t fit your fabricated view of the world.

Corbyn will go down in history as one of the poorest labour leaders, and one of the poorest leaders of the opposition.

[Just Alf]

Excellent campaigning from snp/greens/independeteers!

Nothing to say but sneering and weirdness.

Wow, even I thought you lot were better than this bs.

The sooner our folk return to our non weirdness Labour party the sooner Scotland is calmer and much more civil to each other.

Mon Labour!!!Having read, then taken part of this forum for many years I belive there's a good few of those you're labelling as snp/green/independenteers would seriously be considering voting Labour in an independent Scotland, you seem to be on a one man mission to cast Labour into the wilderness, your tactics of bringing "snp/greens/independenteers" up at every opportunity, even in unrelated threads, is failing you massively and detracts from any valid arguments you'd care to put forward.



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[Bangkok Hibby]

Having read, then taken part of this forum for many years I belive there's a good few of those you're labelling as snp/green/independenteers would seriously be considering voting Labour in an independent Scotland, you seem to be on a one man mission to cast Labour into the wilderness, your tactics of bringing "snp/greens/independenteers" up at every opportunity, even in unrelated threads, is failing you massively and detracts from any valid arguments you'd care to put forward.



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I sometimes wonder if people realise an independent Scotland could be Tory/Liberal/Labour, whatever the Scots want.

[HiBremian]

Having read, then taken part of this forum for many years I belive there's a good few of those you're labelling as snp/green/independenteers would seriously be considering voting Labour in an independent Scotland, you seem to be on a one man mission to cast Labour into the wilderness, your tactics of bringing "snp/greens/independenteers" up at every opportunity, even in unrelated threads, is failing you massively and detracts from any valid arguments you'd care to put forward.



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Having lived in Bremen all these years where a red/green coalition is now the norm, I’m still waiting patiently for the labour party to start doing grown up politics and leave behind the yaboo crap. It might not be a full-blown coalition, but I find the snp/green relationship to be pretty adult. The lab/lib coalition seems like distant history now.


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[Colr]

I joined Labour in 1990.

The New Labour goverment was the best in my lifetime by a long way.

However, I won’t campaign for Corbyn. Corbyns obfuscation and equivocation on brexit is at the root of my distrust of the ma.

Our local Labour MP is great but I need to be pursuaded to vote for a party Corbyn leads.

It’s a seat which swings between Labour and Liberal. The local Corbyn council lost a lot of ground to the Liberals in the Council elections where it ousted sitting councillors and replaced them with Momentum candidates.

Corbyns policy has been to try and place Momentum candidates into key marginals. I suspect that key marginal are key marginals because they are more centrist. That’s why they can swing between Labour and Conservative. Left wing Labour candidates will push the vote more strongly to the Conservative. There may be exceptions like Boris’s seat as he is a complete trumpet but overall, I think this strantegy will fail.

I appreciate this is a London based view and that London is not like the rest of the country but there you have it. London has quite a few seats and a strong Labour presence.

I’d love to hear the perspective from places like Liverpool following the Luciana Berger incidents and from Birmingham where the brilliant Jess Phillips looks very interesting but is also beset by the Momentum bully boys.

[lapsedhibee]

Corbyns policy has been to try and place Momentum candidates into key marginals. I suspect that key marginal are key marginals because they are more centrist. That’s why they can swing between Labour and Conservative. Left wing Labour candidates will push the vote more strongly to the Conservative. There may be exceptions like Boris’s seat as he is a complete trumpet but overall, I think this strantegy will fail.


:aok: Fingers crossed that your North London liberal elitist analysis is correct.

[Moulin Yarns]

That would cause yet more division and chaos within an already fractured Scotland thats being very badly run by the snp/greens and if separatism/independence ever did actually occur it would create cuts and austerity that would make the tories look like generous benefactors by comparison.

The Eu is on a downward spiral and like Jeremy I would care to shift from that which would allow for us to invest heavily in re nationalisation and wrest back control to the state failing uber capatilist private industries, services and franchises.

I note Jeremy has been criticised on here for being cautious to commit to any rash decision making on brexit that was the tories doing well what about the prevarication from the snp on what currency to use.

Jeremy has been shown to be a wiser and much more skillful a politician than most thought he was.

Mon Labour!!!

Instead of always trying to attack the snp like all Labour politicians do, why don't you try and make some constructive criticism with alternative solutions to what you see as the problem. You might then get more positive responses back.

[Ozyhibby]

Instead of always trying to attack the snp like all Labour politicians do, why don't you try and make some constructive criticism with alternative solutions to what you see as the problem. You might then get more positive responses back.

Because he’s trolling. His post on the Petrie thread on the main board is his best yet. Best to ignore.


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[Colr]

:aok: Fingers crossed that your North London liberal elitist analysis is correct.

Imagine! Me! A member of the elite!

My mother will be so proud.

And they says there’s no social mobility in this country!

[weecounty hibby]

Instead of always trying to attack the snp like all Labour politicians do, why don't you try and make some constructive criticism with alternative solutions to what you see as the problem. You might then get more positive responses back.

Because, sadly as I'd like to see real debate and a strong opposition, Labour have no alternative. As seen in the Scottish budget "debate".
Labour - "give more money to education!!!"
Scots Gov - "ok, show us where we can get this money, help us, work with us"
Labour - " give more money to education!!!"
Scots Gov - " ok, show us where we can get more money, help us work with is"
Labour - well you get the picture. Just like Corbyn they are at the moment a party full of protestors who shout loud but have no alternatives. Has anyone, Leonard, Ignsh, Tornadoes70, told us how they plan to pay for the free bus passes for all?? Just rhetoric with no substance. Shame really

[Jim44]

Listening to the news this morning, it appears that the best or only chance of May getting her deal through is if she resigns. In my confused state, that suggests to me that it’s not the deal that’s important to the Conservative party but the power struggle within the party. How long would it take to elect a new leader, would May’s deal be accepted but peddled by a new face, would the deal be kicked around a wee bit by a new face, would a completely new deal be brokered by new faces, would the EU give more time for a new deal to be made? Effing shambles.

[James310]

Why are some SNP supporters losing their **** over Nicola Sturgeons photos opportunities yesterday?

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/17523142.independence-activist-promises-never-to-vote-snp-again-over-sturgeon-picture/

It was great to see her marching side by side with both Labour and the Tories to remain part of a political and social union.

[Ozyhibby]

Listening to the news this morning, it appears that the best or only chance of May getting her deal through is if she resigns. In my confused state, that suggests to me that it’s not the deal that’s important to the Conservative party but the power struggle within the party. How long would it take to elect a new leader, would May’s deal be accepted but peddled by a new face, would the deal be kicked around a wee bit by a new face, would a completely new deal be brokered by new faces, would the EU give more time for a new deal to be made? Effing shambles.

Even resigning won’t get her deal through. That won’t bring the DUP on board and it won’t bring the principled members of the ERG on board. Resigning just brings some on board. I think if she thought resigning would get her deal through she would go for it.
Reading through all the stuff in the papers today I’m beginning to think that there is a possibility the govt collapses if she goes.
Any move either way splits the Tory party. That’s been the case for months which is why she has been so paralysed. Go soft brexit, ERG bring down govt. Go no deal, Tory remainers bring down govt. Go people’s vote, ERG bring down govt.
I think this week will see it collapse as parliament moves things towards soft brexit or people’s vote. I think then we are heading for a GE. And that may return another hung parliament. Although if TIG get their act together they could ride a remain wave all the way to Downing Street.


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[Ozyhibby]

Even resigning won’t get her deal through. That won’t bring the DUP on board and it won’t bring the principled members of the ERG on board. Resigning just brings some on board. I think if she thought resigning would get her deal through she would go for it.
Reading through all the stuff in the papers today I’m beginning to think that there is a possibility the govt collapses if she goes.
Any move either way splits the Tory party. That’s been the case for months which is why she has been so paralysed. Go soft brexit, ERG bring down govt. Go no deal, Tory remainers bring down govt. Go people’s vote, ERG bring down govt.
I think this week will see it collapse as parliament moves things towards soft brexit or people’s vote. I think then we are heading for a GE. And that may return another hung parliament. Although if TIG get their act together they could ride a remain wave all the way to Downing Street.


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[Colr]

Listening to the news this morning, it appears that the best or only chance of May getting her deal through is if she resigns. In my confused state, that suggests to me that it’s not the deal that’s important to the Conservative party but the power struggle within the party. How long would it take to elect a new leader, would May’s deal be accepted but peddled by a new face, would the deal be kicked around a wee bit by a new face, would a completely new deal be brokered by new faces, would the EU give more time for a new deal to be made? Effing shambles.

And the only reason that is of interest to the ERG is if their candidate can take over the party. They will as awkward with a non-ERG PM as they are with May.

They are a posh Momentum.

[jonty]

Before I get launched.

Dave F is a moron.

Mon Labour and the Cabbage!!!


Being at least civil costs nothing. If you can't argue a case there's no need to insult folk who're simply arguing for their own.

Mon Labour!!!

indeed.

nice edit, by they way.

[jonty]

Why are some SNP supporters losing their **** over Nicola Sturgeons photos opportunities yesterday?

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/17523142.independence-activist-promises-never-to-vote-snp-again-over-sturgeon-picture/

It was great to see her marching side by side with both Labour and the Tories to remain part of a political and social union.

Its one and he explains why in the article. :confused:
he's taken it and posted it then I'd say it was Campbells photo opportunity.

To be honest I'm surprised there aren't more - she was pictured with David Lammy for example - but most reasonable people appreciate that it was a it was cross-party with representation from all.

[lapsedhibee]

Barclay on the tellybox now, more or less agreeing that the government is likely to ignore any consensus that arises from the indicative votes.

[jonty]

Barclay on the tellybox now, more or less agreeing that the government is likely to ignore any consensus that arises from the indicative votes.

Because it conflicts with a manifesto that the majority of the country voted against.

Bonkers.

[allmodcons]

What an absolute omnishambles, all brought about by David Cameron trying to paper over huge cracks in the Conservative Party and ****ting himself at the prospect of losing a few right wing bigot MPs to UKIP. He then ****s off leaving an even more clueless individual to negotiate a deal with the EU. A woman who is in absolute denial and not willing to even consider putting another vote to the electorate whilst, at the same time, continually taking her own 'deal' back for yet another meaningful vote (whatever the **** that is) until, presumably, she gets it through the House. It groundhog day all over.

With regard to a second vote, if Leavers are so confident that 17.4M people want to leave the EU what have they got to fear by putting it back to the people? Could it be that knowing what we know now they're concerned they'd lose a 2nd vote?

[lapsedhibee]

With regard to a second vote, if Leavers are so confident that 17.4M people want to leave the EU what have they got to fear by putting it back to the people? Could it be that knowing what we know now they're concerned they'd lose a 2nd vote?
Perhaps they've heard that Arron Banks doesn't have another spare £8m to plough into a new campaign of misinformation.

[Smartie]

Why are some SNP supporters losing their **** over Nicola Sturgeons photos opportunities yesterday?

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/17523142.independence-activist-promises-never-to-vote-snp-again-over-sturgeon-picture/

It was great to see her marching side by side with both Labour and the Tories to remain part of a political and social union.

I agree with you.

The answer to your first question has to be that there are weirdos who will over-react to anything, especially if it brings them attention on social media.

[Jack Hackett]

What an absolute omnishambles, all brought about by David Cameron trying to paper over huge cracks in the Conservative Party and ****ting himself at the prospect of losing a few right wing bigot MPs to UKIP. He then ****s off leaving an even more clueless individual to negotiate a deal with the EU. A woman who is in absolute denial and not willing to even consider putting another vote to the electorate whilst, at the same time, continually taking her own 'deal' back for yet another meaningful vote (whatever the **** that is) until, presumably, she gets it through the House. It groundhog day all over.

With regard to a second vote, if Leavers are so confident that 17.4M people want to leave the EU what have they got to fear by putting it back to the people? Could it be that knowing what we know now they're concerned they'd lose a 2nd vote?

They know they'd lose. You can smell the fear

[Pretty Boy]

Being at least civil costs nothing. If you can't argue a case there's no need to insult folk who're simply arguing for their own.

Mon Labour!!!

Where you being civil when you branded another poster a 'moron'?

Maybe erse is a bit harsh but hypocrite certainly isn't. Typical leftie really.

[easty]

With regard to a second vote, if Leavers are so confident that 17.4M people want to leave the EU what have they got to fear by putting it back to the people? Could it be that knowing what we know now they're concerned they'd lose a 2nd vote?

That’s an absolute nonsense argument though isn’t it? They did “win”.

School playground stuff - rematch rematch...or are you scared you’ll lose?

Plenty ways to argue for staying in Europe without this kind of thing.

[Jack Hackett]

Had a wee chuckle at this https://www.plymouthherald.co.uk/news/local-news/brexit-ferry-protest-plymouth-no-2677855

"I'm very disappointed - I haven't been out in the evening for three years."

[lapsedhibee]

That’s an absolute nonsense argument though isn’t it? They did “win”.

School playground stuff - rematch rematch...or are you scared you’ll lose?



Jeez, wish I'd been at your school. Long time ago now, but I've a vague memory that where I went there was a morning break of 10-15 minutes and a lunchtime break of maybe 50. Where did you go that playground sessions lasted three years?

[stoneyburn hibs]

I thought the best placard at yesterday's match was "We need immigrants to dilute the gene pool"

Photos of Boris, Farage, Gove and Mogg together with those words 😁

[Colr]

Perhaps they've heard that Arron Banks doesn't have another spare £8m to plough into a new campaign of misinformation.

I’m sure he could find it in the same place he found the last lot.

[Colr]

Had a wee chuckle at this https://www.plymouthherald.co.uk/news/local-news/brexit-ferry-protest-plymouth-no-2677855

"I'm very disappointed - I haven't been out in the evening for three years."

It would be funny if they weren’t regarded by the Government as the “voive of the people”

[Smartie]

Had a wee chuckle at this https://www.plymouthherald.co.uk/news/local-news/brexit-ferry-protest-plymouth-no-2677855

"I'm very disappointed - I haven't been out in the evening for three years."

It's the fact that that is the level of anger and protest we would unleash on the nation by revoking article 50 that makes me consider it probably the most viable option going forward from here.

Mild protest and the scent of smouldering gammon.

[SHODAN]

I think revoking article 50 with no intent to leave the EU would set a dangerous precedent. The UK (not us) did vote for it, after all - whether it was binding or not - and a lot of people would see it as a genuine affront to democracy.

A second referendum on the final deal is perfectly acceptable as the outcome of either option would be clear and unambiguous, and was lauded as perfectly acceptable by a number of prominent leavers in the run up to the first vote anyway.

[Smartie]

I think revoking article 50 with no intent to leave the EU would set a dangerous precedent. The UK (not us) did vote for it, after all - whether it was binding or not - and a lot of people would see it as a genuine affront to democracy.

A second referendum on the final deal is perfectly acceptable as the outcome of either option would be clear and unambiguous, and was lauded as perfectly acceptable by a number of prominent leavers in the run up to the first vote anyway.

I agree fwiw.

There doesn't seem an easy way away from where we are now, every path has negative consequences.

[Jack Hackett]

It's the fact that that is the level of anger and protest we would unleash on the nation by revoking article 50 that makes me consider it probably the most viable option going forward from here.

Mild protest and the scent of smouldering gammon.

I've just noticed this comment at the bottom of the article from one of the protagonists, a Mrs Gadd.

"I feel sorry for people having to to grow up in this country. I'm advising my kids to leave the country - to go to Greece or somewhere."

That, in the words of Jabba, just 'Beggars Belief' :faf:

[jonty]

Those pesky laws that have been forced on us by the EU. You know, the 72 ( out of 4,514 that have been influenced by the EU and the 34,105 of our laws) that no-one seems able to name.

https://twitter.com/mac_puck/status/1087360379691380736

[Ozyhibby]

I think revoking article 50 with no intent to leave the EU would set a dangerous precedent. The UK (not us) did vote for it, after all - whether it was binding or not - and a lot of people would see it as a genuine affront to democracy.

A second referendum on the final deal is perfectly acceptable as the outcome of either option would be clear and unambiguous, and was lauded as perfectly acceptable by a number of prominent leavers in the run up to the first vote anyway.

Perfectly reasonable to have another vote. Revoking without one would be a huge betrayal though.


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[Ozyhibby]

I agree fwiw.

There doesn't seem an easy way away from where we are now, every path has negative consequences.

I can’t see how we avoid another GE now. The govt will likely collapse this week.


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[Colr]

I can’t see how we avoid another GE now. The govt will likely collapse this week.


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Only through losing a vote of no confidence.

That could happen but Tories more likely to persuade May to go so they can have a leadership election.

If she refuses to go, they may lose a vote of no confidence in yet another game of chicken

[SHODAN]

May slinking off to the bloody ERG again to try and get her deal through. I can't stand her.

Honestly, I think at this point she'd join them and go full no-deal if it could keep her in power.

[Jack Hackett]

This beeb speeded up footage shows the extent of the march

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-47680979/brexit-people-s-vote-march-to-parliament-square-sped-up

Simply mind boggling... but hey, 'Will of the people' and all that

[grunt]

I think revoking article 50 with no intent to leave the EU would set a dangerous precedent. The UK (not us) did vote for it, after all - whether it was binding or not - and a lot of people would see it as a genuine affront to democracy.I think I see the flaw in your argument. The referendum was just an opinion poll. The Government is supposed to govern the country in the best interests if its citizens. And it is the best interests of the population of the UK to remain in the EU. Every Government analysis tells us this is the case.

Really, there should be no question about this. We simply need some leadership from our elected representatives. Revoke and get on with all the other things that need to be sorted out.

[Ozyhibby]

May slinking off to the bloody ERG again to try and get her deal through. I can't stand her.

Honestly, I think at this point she'd join them and go full no-deal if it could keep her in power.

It can’t though. If she breaks any way at all she is finished and the govt collapses.


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[Ozyhibby]

Only through losing a vote of no confidence.

That could happen but Tories more likely to persuade May to go so they can have a leadership election.

If she refuses to go, they may lose a vote of no confidence in yet another game of chicken

A leadership election doesn’t solve their problems. Whatever happens now will provoke one wing of the Tory party to bring the govt down.


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[allmodcons]

That’s an absolute nonsense argument though isn’t it? They did “win”.

School playground stuff - rematch rematch...or are you scared you’ll lose?

Plenty ways to argue for staying in Europe without this kind of thing.

It's been 3 years since the vote! A vote, which I would remind you was brought about because of split in the Tory Party. You think that is how a democracy should work?

By the way, if it's an "absolute nonsense argument" how do think the issue best resolved?

The bit I've highlighted in bold, can you put some meat on the bones please?

[Ozyhibby]

It's been 3 years since the vote! A vote, which I would remind you was brought about because of split in the Tory Party. You think that is how a democracy should work?

By the way, if it's an "absolute nonsense argument" how do think the issue best resolved?

The bit I've highlighted in bold, can you put some meat on the bones please?

And since the vote we have elected a parliament that wants a soft brexit. If the brexiteers don’t claim their prize soon then it will be taken away from them.


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[JeMeSouviens]

The fascinating/shocking/alarming inside story of what’s going on inside the “government” is in the Sunday Times. Well worth registering to read the whole thing.


Greg Clark, the business secretary, expressed concern that ministers would face censure for allowing no deal to go ahead knowing what they did of the problems. He asked Sir Mark Sedwill, the cabinet secretary, “whether allowing no deal would be breaking the ministerial code because we know how bad it might be”.

Another minister said: “We’re sitting there contemplating the length of queues and the size of the riots and the shortages of medicines and when we might deploy the army and the prime minister has just put no deal back on the table. There was visceral anger.”

These ministers are also concerned that a future public inquiry into the government’s stewardship of Brexit could find that they put the interests of the party before those of the country. One source who has read last week’s cabinet minutes said: “They quote the prime minister saying not delivering Brexit ‘would be damaging to the Conservative Party’. There are references to the party needing to elect councillors in the local elections. If this all goes wrong it will be quite damning actually.”

[Ozyhibby]

The fascinating/shocking/alarming inside story of what’s going on inside the “government” is in the Sunday Times. Well worth registering to read the whole thing.

I think a ‘no deal’ brexit is now dead. It just depends on if the ERG are smart enough to take whatever brexit they get offered this week whether the whole thing goes ahead now.


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[Colr]

A leadership election doesn’t solve their problems. Whatever happens now will provoke one wing of the Tory party to bring the govt down.


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It doesn’t its really down to whether they want to take their chances with their own party or with the electorate.

Frankly, a general election won’t solve their problems either as I suspect it will be inconclusive again.

Interestingly, the subtext of what I heard one MP suggesting this morning suggested he thought the problem lay in having too many remain MPs. Therefore, an election would give the opportunity to have more leave MPs. Queue Momentum style ERG campaign to de-seat remain Tories?

[Colr]

I think a ‘no deal’ brexit is now dead. It just depends on if the ERG are smart enough to take whatever brexit they get offered this week whether the whole thing goes ahead now.


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Its all down to the ERG and DUP

Never vote for an extremist!!

[Hibbyradge]

The fascinating/shocking/alarming inside story of what’s going on inside the “government” is in the Sunday Times. Well worth registering to read the whole thing.

Putting the party first seems to be the done thing.

Instead of joining the march on Saturday, Jeremy Corbyn was in Morecambe, campaigning for the local elections.

[JeMeSouviens]

Putting the party first seems to be the done thing.

Instead of joining the march on Saturday, Jeremy Corbyn was in Morecambe, campaigning for the local elections.

https://www.lancasterguardian.co.uk/webimage/1.9667535.1553269343!/image/image.jpg

As some wit on twitter put it: "campaigning on all the right issues, but not necessarily in the right order." :rolleyes:

[JeMeSouviens]

The latest iteration of Cooper/Boles/Letwin is voted on today and all the chat seems to be that it will pass this time. It would allow indicative votes on Wednesday.

Counter to that, the "government" might try to run its own indicative votes process to try and control it. Liam Fox got this off to a rip roaring start this morning by suggesting they'd ignore the outcome anyway unless it's their deal or no deal.

[Hibrandenburg]

Putting the party first seems to be the done thing.

Instead of joining the march on Saturday, Jeremy Corbyn was in Morecambe, campaigning for the local elections.

Corbyn is the ultimate Post Turtle.

[JeMeSouviens]

Eu commission says it's ready for No Deal and that in event of same, 3rd country tariffs will apply to all UK exports to EU.

[hibsbollah]

The latest iteration of Cooper/Boles/Letwin is voted on today and all the chat seems to be that it will pass this time. It would allow indicative votes on Wednesday.

Counter to that, the "government" might try to run its own indicative votes process to try and control it. Liam Fox got this off to a rip roaring start this morning by suggesting they'd ignore the outcome anyway unless it's their deal or no deal.

Every time I turn on the Today programme Liam ****ing Fox is on there, with his stupid Scots Tory drone. He's got a mysteriously high profile for someone who is massively unpopular and gets turfed out of every Tory leadership he goes in for, which is all of them.

[hibsbollah]

https://www.lancasterguardian.co.uk/webimage/1.9667535.1553269343!/image/image.jpg

As some wit on twitter put it: "campaigning on all the right issues, but not necessarily in the right order." :rolleyes:

Please God no.

[grunt]

As some wit on twitter put it: "campaigning on all the right issues, but not necessarily in the right order." :rolleyes:
I think that's quite good.

[Hibrandenburg]

Eu commission says it's ready for No Deal and that in event of same, 3rd country tariffs will apply to all UK exports to EU.

I'm surprised that this is being sold as "Breaking News". I posted this on the 19th after Barnier made his speech.

It is however symptomatic of this mess, nobody is actually listening to what the EU is actually saying.

[JeMeSouviens]

I'm surprised that this is being sold as "Breaking News". I posted this on the 19th after Barnier made his speech.

It is however symptomatic of this mess, nobody is actually listening to what the EU is actually saying.

I think that's the first time I've seen official confirmation they'd apply full WTO default tariff schedules, ie. busting any of the Brexit bluster that they wouldn't do that, that there could be some kind of mini-transition* or the like.
Apols if I missed you posting that.


* or even worse, the dreaded GATT art 24 rubbish.

[JeMeSouviens]

I think that's quite good.

Yeah, the smiley was aimed at Jez, not the joke.

[JeMeSouviens]

ITV reporting we're getting MV3 tomorrow. Lucky old us. :rolleyes:

[DaveF]

ITV reporting we're getting MV3 tomorrow. Lucky old us. :rolleyes:

You have assume that her weekend spent begging with the right wing has won her enough votes to get it through then?

[Callum_62]

You have assume that her weekend spent begging with the right wing has won her enough votes to get it through then?

Wouldnt bank on it - considering the scale of defeat the last time

Interesting shes bringing it back again tho


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[JeMeSouviens]

You have assume that her weekend spent begging with the right wing has won her enough votes to get it through then?

Can't see it. Not in one go anyway. She might get the defeat down to double figures and hail that as a magnificent success. :rolleyes:

[Hibrandenburg]

I think that's the first time I've seen official confirmation they'd apply full WTO default tariff schedules, ie. busting any of the Brexit bluster that they wouldn't do that, that there could be some kind of mini-transition or the like.
Apols if I missed you posting that.

Wasn't me whinging at you JMS, apologies if it came across that way. More a gripe at Sky News who are selling this as breaking news when they broadcast Barnier's speech last week where he confirmed this. Your spot on the money regarding Brexit bluster, if the government actually concentrated on the rules regarding article 50 and what the EU was telling them rather than dreaming up fantasy wish lists that the EU could never comply with, then maybe we'd be much further down the line than we are now.

[JeMeSouviens]

Wasn't me whinging at you JMS, apologies if it came across that way. More a gripe at Sky News who are selling this as breaking news when they broadcast Barnier's speech last week where he confirmed this. Your spot on the money regarding Brexit bluster, if the government actually concentrated on the rules regarding article 50 and what the EU was telling them rather than dreaming up fantasy wish lists that the EU could never comply with, then maybe we'd be much further down the line than we are now.

:agree:

The assumption all along from the Brexiteers was "we're Britain, they're bound to bend the rules for us". It's not proved to be a very good assumption, to say the least.

[JeMeSouviens]

ITV journo Paul Brand clarifies earlier tweet to say the plan is for MV3 tomorrow, subject to discussions with the DUP etc.

So don't hold your breath.

[JeMeSouviens]

Laura Kuenssberg reporting DUP still says no.

Well I never. :rolleyes:

[Moulin Yarns]

Laura Kuenssberg reporting DUP still says no.

Well I never. :rolleyes:

That sounds like the man from del monte, another orangeman.

[JeMeSouviens]

May statement to Commons, some actual content today:

- not enough support for MV3, but (surprise!) has not given up
- will agree to hold indicative votes but will not respect the result if it doesn't agree with Tory manifesto (which explicitly ruled out CU & SM, so what's the ****** point?)
- says there won't be No Deal unless the Commons votes for it
- says there could be long extension


Tonight's backbench-take-control amendment from the usual suspects is to be referred to as Letwin/Benn. Labour are backing it. Remember it failed by 2 last time. Expected to be close again but slight favourite to pass this time.

[JeMeSouviens]

May says couldn't have No Deal because there is currently no NI executive so they couldn't prepare NI for it. Bit of a dig at the DUP there.

Nigel Dodds (even more) raging (than usual). :greengrin

[lapsedhibee]

May statement to Commons, some actual content today:

- not enough support for MV3, but (surprise!) has not given up
- will agree to hold indicative votes but will not respect the result if it doesn't agree with Tory manifesto (which explicitly ruled out CU & SM, so what's the ****** point?)
- says there won't be No Deal unless the Commons votes for it
- says there could be long extension


Tonight's backbench-take-control amendment from the usual suspects is to be referred to as Letwin/Benn. Labour are backing it. Remember it failed by 2 last time. Expected to be close again but slight favourite to pass this time.

Disagree that she's said much of any use today. Most of the apparently new stuff was trailed on the tellybox politics shows on Sunday and she's spent almost the entire time on her feet today avoiding answering anyone's questions. Doddsy and Sammy Wilson are the only two she's taken slightly seriously apart from Ken Clarke; the rest of the hour she's spent just re-trotting out her slogans.

[JeMeSouviens]

Disagree that she's said much of any use today. Most of the apparently new stuff was trailed on the tellybox politics shows on Sunday and she's spent almost the entire time on her feet today avoiding answering anyone's questions. Doddsy and Sammy Wilson are the only two she's taken slightly seriously apart from Ken Clarke; the rest of the hour she's spent just re-trotting out her slogans.

It's all relative. Usually her statements are entirely devoid of content.

[JeMeSouviens]

The Hugo Rikfind "My Week" column from Saturday's Times featuring Theresa May:


Monday
Bad news. John Bercow has ruled out a third meaningful vote. I ask him to change his mind, and he says no. So I say I’ve got another question, and I ask him to change his mind.

“But that’s the same question,” says Bercow.

“OK, so I’ve got a third question,” I say, but he sends me away.

That afternoon Jeremy Hunt and I have a call with Donald Tusk to talk about an extension to Article 50. First, Jeremy tells Tusk his English is very good for somebody from Portugal. Then Donald says he’s from Poland. Then Jeremy pretends that he said Poland, and says maybe Donald’s English isn’t that good after all.

“Listen,” says Tusk. “We want to help. But you don’t seem to have much authority.”

“Rubbish,” says Jeremy. “Everybody respects Theresa enormously.”

Tusk sighs. Then he says the most vital consideration, as far as the European parliament is concerned, is that we’re gone before the next election.

“Oh she will be,” snorts Jeremy. “Remember the last one?”

Tuesday
I call a cabinet meeting.

“I suppose you’re all wondering about my plan,” I say.

“You’ve got a plan?” says Amber.

“Brexit means Brexit,” I say, confidently.

Everybody starts shouting. Nobody can agree how long a delay should be. Gavin Williamson wants to send in the army. Sajid Javid wants no deal. Philip Hammond says that would be a catastrophe but Liam Fox says no it wouldn’t because he’s struck a trade deal with Liechtenstein. Michael Gove slides off his chair and hides under the table.

“Actually,” I say, “I do have a plan. I’m going to write to Donald Tusk.”

“And say what?” asks Amber.

I shrug. I didn’t say it was a detailed plan.

Wednesday
It’s not an easy letter to write. By lunch, it just says, “Dear Donald, I hope you’re well.” And even that has to be rewritten several times, because I got the Brexiteers to do the first few drafts and they kept writing “your”.

Eventually, though, we ask for an extension until June.

Then I arrange a meeting with all the opposition leaders to spell out the way forward.

“What’s Chuka doing here?” says Jeremy Corbyn.

“Shall we do a selfie?” says Chuka Umunna.

“Can I be next to you?” says Vince Cable.

Then Corbyn says he wants to leave, and Umunna says thank God he’s finally admitting it. Then Corbyn says he means this meeting, actually, because he won’t speak to a traitor. Then Umunna asks if it would have helped if he’d brought a keffiyeh and a machinegun along. Then Corbyn storms out.

“Anyway,” I say, once everything has calmed down. “I think all the things I always have. Thanks for coming.”

Later, I make a speech blaming everything on MPs. I think it goes OK.

Thursday
Actually, it didn’t go OK. The chief whip tells me all the MPs are cross and will henceforth be hard to discipline. Well, I say “tells”. I mean more “screams directly into my face while crying”.

Anyway, now I’ve gone to Brussels to negotiate with other EU leaders.

“Alors!” says Jean-Claude Juncker. “We are sure you have a tres cunning plan for what to do if your third vote is defeated!”

“Oh yes!” I tell him.

Angela Merkel asks whether it might be to have a fourth vote. Clearly there has been a leak.

After that, Tusk asks me to leave the room, and I say I will, but I’m not happy about the EU27 negotiating in secret.

“We aren’t,” explains Tusk. “You’re just really annoying.”

Friday
In our house there are boy jobs and girl jobs and one of mine is breakfast.

“Frosties?” I say to Philip, who is drinking coffee and reading the paper.

“No thanks,” he says.

“Or alternatively,” I say, “maybe some Frosties?”

Philip puts down his cup and sighs. Then reminds me that we’ve talked about this behaviour before. Because when somebody doesn’t want something, he says, it’s just plain weird to keep asking. Again and again.

“So in which case,” I say, “how about Frosties?”

“Oh for God’s sake,” says Philip. “Fine. I’ll have the bloody Frosties.”

I beam.

[lapsedhibee]

The Hugo Rikfind "My Week" column from Saturday's Times featuring Theresa May:

:faf:

[JeMeSouviens]

Maybe, just maybe there's scope for a UK party leader that doesn't support Brexit?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D2hVGZhXQAEHXlt.jpg

[Colr]

Maybe, just maybe there's scope for a UK party leader that doesn't support Brexit?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D2hVGZhXQAEHXlt.jpg

Vince “Crypt Keeper” Cable?

[JeMeSouviens]

Letwin wins by 27. Good.

[JeMeSouviens]

2 junior ministers resigned to vote for it.

[Moulin Yarns]

Letwin wins by 27. Good.

A defeat for the government on having indicative votes but they will just ignore them.

[JeMeSouviens]

A defeat for the government on having indicative votes but they will just ignore them.

I still think an election could be the Tories’ last resort, albeit it would now come with a long brexit delay attached.

[Ozyhibby]

I still think an election could be the Tories’ last resort, albeit it would now come with a long brexit delay attached.

I think so too but nobody is ready to fight one.


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[Callum_62]

Last polls i seen had snp getting 58 seats

What would that do for the no appetite brigade? [emoji50]


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[JeMeSouviens]

Last polls i seen had snp getting 58 seats

What would that do for the no appetite brigade? [emoji50]


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CAUTION - seat forecasts for GE in Scotland should only be based on full scale Scottish opinion polls. What you’re seeing is a UK wide poll, the sample sizes in Scotland are tiny and UK voting pattern rules don’t apply.

40+ is realistic though. :wink:

[Tornadoes70]

https://www.lancasterguardian.co.uk/webimage/1.9667535.1553269343!/image/image.jpg

As some wit on twitter put it: "campaigning on all the right issues, but not necessarily in the right order." :rolleyes:

Who hasn't done that when they're in Morecambe? Good photo showing Jeremy relaxed and in good frame of mind.

Heard Jeremy speaking today and was as impressive as ever on brexit as he allows the tories as much rope as they need.

Looking and sounding as if he's on track to become the next Labour PM.

Mon Labour!!!

[The Harp Awakes]

A defeat for the government on having indicative votes but they will just ignore them.

If there is majority indicative vote for a softer Brexit, or something even more unpalatable to the loony Brexiteers and NI bigots, watch them all fall in line behind TM's deal. It would be just what TM needs to get the deal through.

[theonlywayisup]

I see from the graphic below that there was one Conservatory MP who voted for both sides - how's that?

https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/EC3D/production/_106177406_mp_control_breakdown-nc.png

[lapsedhibee]

If there is majority indicative vote for a softer Brexit, or something even more unpalatable to the loony Brexiteers and NI bigots, watch them all fall in line behind TM's deal. It would be just what TM needs to get the deal through.

Not sure about that. Many sticking to their view that May's deal isn't Brexit anyway, so they might prefer a general election with a new leader. Someone who could renegotiate with the EU in an ancient language, say.

[lapsedhibee]

I see from the graphic below that there was one Conservatory MP who voted for both sides - how's that?

https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/EC3D/production/_106177406_mp_control_breakdown-nc.png

Ed Vaizey wandered through both turnstiles in the farce that they have for a voting system.

[lapsedhibee]

For some time now, and Hancock is at it again today, peeps in and around the House of Commons have used the word "unicorn" in a most pejorative way.

Even Ian Blackford has used it like this.

Yet no-one uses "lion" in this pejorative manner.

Why? I'll tell you why. Because lion is the national animal of England and unicorn is the national animal of Scotland.

Outrageous!

[Moulin Yarns]

Who hasn't done that when they're in Morecambe? !

Me. Why would you?

[Hibbyradge]

For some time now, and Hancock is at it again today, peeps in and around the House of Commons have used the word "unicorn" in a most pejorative way.

Even Ian Blackford has used it like this.

Yet no-one uses "lion" in this pejorative manner.

Why? I'll tell you why. Because lion is the national animal of England and unicorn is the national animal of Scotland.

Outrageous!

:agree:

:grr:

:brickwall:

etc.

[Tornadoes70]

Me. Why would you?

Trolling again?

Why not have your photo taken at the Eric Morecambe statue when visiting Morecambe?

Its an extremely common occurrence.

Mon Labour!!!

[JeMeSouviens]

Ed Vaizey wandered through both turnstiles in the farce that they have for a voting system.

Seemingly they sometimes do this to actively register an abstention. But he just did it by accident. Good job they didn't lose by 1. :greengrin

[JeMeSouviens]

Rees Mogg caves and backs the deal on Conservative Home website.

[Ozyhibby]

Rees Mogg caves and backs the deal on Conservative Home website.

He was always going to. He can’t take the hardliners with him though. And the DUP can’t change so I don’t think it changes much.
If Labour were competently run they would now break towards a fresh referendum. A resulting vote for remain would probably break the Tory park in two. Surely that is something Corbyn would wish for or is his desire to leave the EU greater?


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[HappyAsHellas]

If the member for the 18th century is going to back May's deal then I think a lot of the ERG will follow suit in fear of a no Brexit at all. If May announces a retirement date then that can swing some more to her side. Never underestimate the tories to look after each other when the dirt hits the fan. MV tomorrow anyone?

[grunt]

MV tomorrow anyone?What's changed? I though Bercow said they can't bring the vote back to the House unless it has changed?

[The Harp Awakes]

Rees Mogg caves and backs the deal on Conservative Home website.

Yes, here's his quote:

"I have always thought that no deal is better than Mrs May's deal, but Mrs May's deal is better than not leaving at all."

[marinello59]

Yes, here's his quote:

"I have always thought that no deal is better than Mrs May's deal, but Mrs May's deal is better than not leaving at all."

He thought the deal was so bad for the country he called for a vote of no confidence in May. Now it’s OK. ****er.

[JeMeSouviens]

He thought the deal was so bad for the country he called for a vote of no confidence in May. Now it’s OK. ****er.

Genuinely surprised that "topper" triggered the swear filter. :greengrin

Ian Dunt on twitter:


Hard to imagine a deal based on less trust than one done between the PM and ERG on basis of her future resignation.

They'll sign up on the basis that once she's gone, they'll tear up the deal. She'll sign up on basis that once the deal is done, she'll tear up the promise.

[JeMeSouviens]

He was always going to. He can’t take the hardliners with him though. And the DUP can’t change so I don’t think it changes much.
If Labour were competently run they would now break towards a fresh referendum. A resulting vote for remain would probably break the Tory park in two. Surely that is something Corbyn would wish for or is his desire to leave the EU greater?


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I think Labour's policy should be (and might end up being) both try to negotiate Jezza's deal but then hold a ratify ref vs remain. Although the first bit is probably pointless given that Leavers now seem to think May's deal plus future direction (relatively hard Brexit) is total betrayal and as bad as remaining. :rolleyes:

[JeMeSouviens]

Sky reporting DUP are not for turning and are digging in for a long extension.

[matty_f]

He thought the deal was so bad for the country he called for a vote of no confidence in May. Now it’s OK. ****er.

He and his cronies are the absolute worst. Self-serving ****holes who would happily sell the country down the river if it meant them coming out of it well.

I despise him. I despise most Tories, if I'm totally honest, but between Reese-Mogg, Gove and Boris I reserve a special loathing for.

[Pretty Boy]

He and his cronies are the absolute worst. Self-serving ****holes who would happily sell the country down the river if it meant them coming out of it well.

I despise him. I despise most Tories, if I'm totally honest, but between Reese-Mogg, Gove and Boris I reserve a special loathing for.

"The eyes of the world are turning to Great Britain. We now have the moral leadership of the world, and before many years are over we shall have people coming here as to a modern Mecca, learning from us in the twentieth century as they learned from us in the seventeenth," said Mr Aneurin Bevan, Minister of Health, at a Labour rally in Manchester yesterday.
The meeting was called to celebrate the anniversary of Labour's accession to power. The Labour party, he said, would win the 1950 election because successful Toryism and an intelligent electorate were a contradiction in terms. His own experiences ensured that no amount of cajolery could eradicate from his heart a deep burning hatred of the Tory party. "So far as I am concerned they are lower than vermin," he went on. "They condemned millions of people to semi-starvation. I warn you young men and women, do not listen to what they are saying, do not listen to the seductions of Lord Woolton. They have not changed, or if they have they are slightly worse."

Bevan said it almost 70 years ago and it still rings true.

[JeMeSouviens]

"The eyes of the world are turning to Great Britain. We now have the moral leadership of the world, and before many years are over we shall have people coming here as to a modern Mecca, learning from us in the twentieth century as they learned from us in the seventeenth," said Mr Aneurin Bevan, Minister of Health, at a Labour rally in Manchester yesterday.
The meeting was called to celebrate the anniversary of Labour's accession to power. The Labour party, he said, would win the 1950 election because successful Toryism and an intelligent electorate were a contradiction in terms. His own experiences ensured that no amount of cajolery could eradicate from his heart a deep burning hatred of the Tory party. "So far as I am concerned they are lower than vermin," he went on. "They condemned millions of people to semi-starvation. I warn you young men and women, do not listen to what they are saying, do not listen to the seductions of Lord Woolton. They have not changed, or if they have they are slightly worse."

Bevan said it almost 70 years ago and it still rings true.

There's a viral twitter video of Dominic Raab on a tv show where a disabled woman talks about the effects of austerity and he answers by saying we can't have a "childish wish list" of spending priorities. There are rumours of good hearted Tories but actual concrete evidence of a hell of a lot of ****s.

[Tornadoes70]

There's a viral twitter video of Dominic Raab on a tv show where a disabled woman talks about the effects of austerity and he answers by saying we can't have a "childish wish list" of spending priorities. There are rumours of good hearted Tories but actual concrete evidence of a hell of a lot of ****s.

Wasn't he a remainer prior to becoming interested in being potential leader? Some play whatever tune fits at whatever time particularly devious politicians. Dominic is normally a name of good origin albeit in this case its being associated with toryism. I suspect he's at this moment in time playing a tune to the gallery of the harder wing tory elements.

[matty_f]

"The eyes of the world are turning to Great Britain. We now have the moral leadership of the world, and before many years are over we shall have people coming here as to a modern Mecca, learning from us in the twentieth century as they learned from us in the seventeenth," said Mr Aneurin Bevan, Minister of Health, at a Labour rally in Manchester yesterday.
The meeting was called to celebrate the anniversary of Labour's accession to power. The Labour party, he said, would win the 1950 election because successful Toryism and an intelligent electorate were a contradiction in terms. His own experiences ensured that no amount of cajolery could eradicate from his heart a deep burning hatred of the Tory party. "So far as I am concerned they are lower than vermin," he went on. "They condemned millions of people to semi-starvation. I warn you young men and women, do not listen to what they are saying, do not listen to the seductions of Lord Woolton. They have not changed, or if they have they are slightly worse."

Bevan said it almost 70 years ago and it still rings true.

That's about as good a summary of them as there is.

[jonty]

There's a viral twitter video of Dominic Raab on a tv show where a disabled woman talks about the effects of austerity and he answers by saying we can't have a "childish wish list" of spending priorities. There are rumours of good hearted Tories but actual concrete evidence of a hell of a lot of ****s.

James O'Brien
https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1109110453073047553

Led by donkeys then took it a step further and played it, on loop, to his constituents
https://twitter.com/ByDonkeys/status/1110242873302269952/video/1

[Ozyhibby]

Sky reporting DUP are not for turning and are digging in for a long extension.

With that, May deal is finally dead. If indicative votes can agree on any way forward, it’s likely to be a soft brexit that is unpalatable to Tories so we are likely to se either a GE or beg EU for long extension for no reason other than to kick can down the road. If EU refuse it’s either revoke or GE.
I think. [emoji3]


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[Ozyhibby]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190326/7fec89d1374894291bf9129b0ac0c82c.jpg


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[SHODAN]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190326/7fec89d1374894291bf9129b0ac0c82c.jpg


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That sounds fair, and probably what I'd go for. However, a referendum on the deal should be a separate vote and not one of the options - it makes no sense.

Norway 2.0 (i.e. basically not Brexit) is the most popular option so hopefully that can get a thumping majority and force May to accept.

[Sylar]

That sounds fair, and probably what I'd go for. However, a referendum on the deal should be a separate vote and not one of the options - it makes no sense.

Norway 2.0 (i.e. basically not Brexit) is the most popular option so hopefully that can get a thumping majority and force May to accept.

I genuinely believe she'll dismiss whatever comes back from Parliament unless it's as close as possible to her deal or no deal.

She's given me nothing to believe she'll act in good faith throughout this whole process, and I don't believe she's for starting now.

[Ozyhibby]

I genuinely believe she'll dismiss whatever comes back from Parliament unless it's as close as possible to her deal or no deal.

She's given me nothing to believe she'll act in good faith throughout this whole process, and I don't believe she's for starting now.

I don’t think she can. Whichever way she moves there are enough people who are going to be pee’d off enough to bring down the govt.
I no longer think she is stubborn, more trapped than anything else.


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[lapsedhibee]

I don’t think she can. Whichever way she moves there are enough people who are going to be pee’d off enough to bring down the govt.
I no longer think she is stubborn, more trapped than anything else.

Trapped since the day she successfully put herself up for Tory leader. Cameron knew what was coming. But she is shirley stubborn as well.

[HUTCHYHIBBY]

Trapped since the day she successfully put herself up for Tory leader. Cameron knew what was coming. But she is shirley stubborn as well.

I'm surprised how easily Cameron has got away with causing this whole ****storm.

[SHODAN]

I genuinely believe she'll dismiss whatever comes back from Parliament unless it's as close as possible to her deal or no deal.

She's given me nothing to believe she'll act in good faith throughout this whole process, and I don't believe she's for starting now.

Can't we just tell her that if she wants to avoid no deal all she has to do is accept the democratic will of parliament? She kept churning out that ***** about her deal. :dunno:

[Ozyhibby]

I'm surprised how easily Cameron has got away with causing this whole ****storm.

Not sure he got away with it. It cost him his job and his political career. What are you suggesting, jail?[emoji3]


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[Sylar]

I don’t think she can. Whichever way she moves there are enough people who are going to be pee’d off enough to bring down the govt.
I no longer think she is stubborn, more trapped than anything else.


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Can't we just tell her that if she wants to avoid no deal all she has to do is accept the democratic will of parliament? She kept churning out that ***** about her deal. :dunno:

I think that ship sailed when she had the opportunity to completely take No Deal off the table after Parliament voted against it a few weeks ago, yet she stood up at the dispatch box the next day and announced it was still the default option to jeers and heckles from all side.

I understand the "trapped" narrative, but she's navigated into that bay herself. Rather than admit her failings and try and negotiate a way out, she seems hell bent on pressing the Brexit button at all costs, hell bent on not going back to the British public.

I hope you're correct Ozy, but I just can't see it. She's entrenched.

[JeMeSouviens]

Leavers quietly disowning their votes over time ...

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D2kZLiLXgAA3bIN?format=jpg&name=large

[JeMeSouviens]

James O'Brien
https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1109110453073047553

Led by donkeys then took it a step further and played it, on loop, to his constituents
https://twitter.com/ByDonkeys/status/1110242873302269952/video/1


That’s the one, ta.

[JeMeSouviens]

Can't we just tell her that if she wants to avoid no deal all she has to do is accept the democratic will of parliament? She kept churning out that ***** about her deal. :dunno:

Robert Peston reports the Cabinet Secretary has told her if she ignores a direct instruction from parliament she’ll be in breach of the ministerial code. If she won’t carry it out she’d have to resign.

[JeMeSouviens]

My MP Joanna Cherry tables an amendment ordering the government to revoke A50 if we get within a day of a No Deal exit.

[James310]

My MP Joanna Cherry tables an amendment ordering the government to revoke A50 if we get within a day of a No Deal exit.

I am obviously not her biggest fan (especially for hijacking my Remain vote as another vote for Indy) but she has done very well throughout the Brexit shambles and I think her legal experience and being a QC has been very valuable.

[SHODAN]

My MP Joanna Cherry tables an amendment ordering the government to revoke A50 if we get within a day of a No Deal exit.

No hope of it being passed, she's SNP so it's an automatic Labstain.

[JeMeSouviens]

Kyle/Wilson is on with Labour frontbench backing!

[marinello59]

I am obviously not her biggest fan (especially for hijacking my Remain vote as another vote for Indy) but she has done very well throughout the Brexit shambles and I think her legal experience and being a QC has been very valuable.

Her contributions have been excellent in recent weeks, she makes her case very well.

[matty_f]

Just got an email update from the petition, saying the government won't consider revoking article 50 due to it undermining democracy.

Hypocritical shop fronts.

[Hibbyradge]

Just got an email update from the petition, saying the government won't consider revoking article 50 due to it undermining democracy.

Hypocritical shop fronts.

Revoking was always a massive outside chance, although it's still a possibility if the circumstances are right.

A new vote is more likely and the petition helps that narrative.

[lapsedhibee]

Mogg's position now being reported as that he's changed his mind and will vote for May's deal but only if the DUP does too. What sort of sense does that make? :dunno:

[Mibbes Aye]

No hope of it being passed, she's SNP so it's an automatic Labstain.

That’s simply not true, but the Nats like to make out it is.

There was a big night of votes at the end of February, where both Labour and SNP tabled broadly similar amendments designed to stop a no-deal Brexit.

More than 200 Labour MPs backed the SNP amendment.

Not one of the SNP MPs backed the Labour amendment.

Both were rejected.

This whole Bain principle/Labstain nonsense is just empty propaganda designed to get people feeling aggrieved about something, which we all know is page one in the nationalist playbook.

[matty_f]

Mogg's position now being reported as that he's changed his mind and will vote for May's deal but only if the DUP does too. What sort of sense does that make? :dunno:

Here you see a politician playing fast and loose with the country for his own self interests. The prick.

There was a Tory MP interviewed on channel 4 news this evening, he voted against May's desk twice and was now going to back it, yet he insisted he hasn't changed his mind. What a ****.

[ronaldo7]

That’s simply not true, but the Nats like to make out it is.

There was a big night of votes at the end of February, where both Labour and SNP tabled broadly similar amendments designed to stop a no-deal Brexit.

More than 200 Labour MPs backed the SNP amendment.

Not one of the SNP MPs backed the Labour amendment.

Both were rejected.

This whole Bain principle/Labstain nonsense is just empty propaganda designed to get people feeling aggrieved about something, which we all know is page one in the nationalist playbook.

I'd be interested in said wording of both amendments. You don't have them to hand do you, so we can make an informed decision as to whether they were actually " broadly similar", or in fact, something else was at play.

Fwiw, I'm glad that new labour are actually looking at amendments from others, and starting to leave, Bain, behind.

We can concentrate on the Tories, who keep telling us to go home.

How inclusive we must feel when at work, and braying mobs keep having a go.

Partners eh.

[Pretty Boy]

The whole episode is shameful. No one comes out with any real credit, politicians and the electorate alike.

It's that polarised 'I want this and I don't care about anyone else's views' mentality that has become increasingly prevalent in UK politics.

A vacuum of talent on the front benches, an unwillingness from either side to acknowledge the concerns of the other, no leadership and politicians positioning themselves to further their own self interests in the aftermath.

An embarrassing episode that history will not look kindly upon.

[Hibrandenburg]

How can you hold sensible debate with opinions like this?


https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/general-election/traitor-to-england-ian-blackford-harassed-by-brexit-supporters-in-london-1-4894412

[James310]

I'd be interested in said wording of both amendments. You don't have them to hand do you, so we can make an informed decision as to whether they were actually " broadly similar", or in fact, something else was at play.

Fwiw, I'm glad that new labour are actually looking at amendments from others, and starting to leave, Bain, behind.

We can concentrate on the Tories, who keep telling us to go home.

How inclusive we must feel when at work, and braying mobs keep having a go.

Partners eh.

Telling us, who is us? The SNP are not Scotland. But again you love a good grievance. Be lost without it.

Same Tories your dear leader was happy to share a platform with at the weekend as well. That must have got to you.

[ronaldo7]

Telling us, who is us? The SNP are not Scotland. But again you love a good grievance. Be lost without it.

Same Tories your dear leader was happy to share a platform with at the weekend as well. That must have got to you.

The, us, is the SNP.

Currently representing, their constituents in Westminster.

You wouldn't know about that though, as your leader won the last election didn't she. 😂

[ronaldo7]

Here you see a politician playing fast and loose with the country for his own self interests. The prick.

There was a Tory MP interviewed on channel 4 news this evening, he voted against May's desk twice and was now going to back it, yet he insisted he hasn't changed his mind. What a ****.

Ben Bradley, another tory spiv.

[James310]

The, us, is the SNP.

Currently representing, their constituents in Westminster.

You wouldn't know about that though, as your leader won the last election didn't she. 😂

For a minute there I thought you were confusing the SNP with Scotland, good to clear that up.

If I recall it was directed to Ian Blackford who was complaining about his vote being worthless and he might as well go home. While arguing his point he was doing so by trying to overturn the votes of 17.4M people, and funnily enough make their vote worthless as well.

[JeMeSouviens]

That’s simply not true, but the Nats like to make out it is.

There was a big night of votes at the end of February, where both Labour and SNP tabled broadly similar amendments designed to stop a no-deal Brexit.

More than 200 Labour MPs backed the SNP amendment.

Not one of the SNP MPs backed the Labour amendment.

Both were rejected.

This whole Bain principle/Labstain nonsense is just empty propaganda designed to get people feeling aggrieved about something, which we all know is page one in the nationalist playbook.

Ben Bradshaw is a sponsor and Ian Murray and Ged Killen are both supporters of Cherry’s amendment.

There is a ton of most unusual cross party work going on at westminster. Be nice if we could shelve the party bickering today.

[JeMeSouviens]

The whole episode is shameful. No one comes out with any real credit, politicians and the electorate alike.

It's that polarised 'I want this and I don't care about anyone else's views' mentality that has become increasingly prevalent in UK politics.

A vacuum of talent on the front benches, an unwillingness from either side to acknowledge the concerns of the other, no leadership and politicians positioning themselves to further their own self interests in the aftermath.

An embarrassing episode that history will not look kindly upon.

Disagree.

Notable Heroes of Brexit: Dominic Grieve, Keir Starmer, Yvette Cooper, Hilary Benn, Joanna Cherry, John Bercow

[Pretty Boy]

How can you hold sensible debate with opinions like this?


https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/general-election/traitor-to-england-ian-blackford-harassed-by-brexit-supporters-in-london-1-4894412

I don't think there's any suggestion you have to debate with every single individual extreme view on the issue.

The architects of Brexit may well have been the loony right of the Tory party; however many of those who actually voted for it are from the traditional Labour heartlands. People from areas who have struggled for any kind of prosperity in a post industrial UK. The warnings have been there for well over a decade with the moderate success enjoyed by UKIP and the BNP in local council elections. There were repeated concerns raised about the effect of immigration on employment opportunity and public services, concerns about zero hours contracts, concerns about low paid, insecure employment and so on. There was repeated promises by successive governments and oppositions to 'listen' to these concerns but scant evidence of action to tackle them. The EU referendum presented an opportunity for many of these people to kick out. Whether that was at the right people or at the right time is somewhat irrelevant.

There has been a total disregard of such views and a preference from many to wrap themselves in a comfort blanket that dismisses every person who voted leave as a jingoist, a racist, a xenophobe, a little Englander or any of the other terms that roll of the tongue. I really question what kind of seismic event it will take for people to realise that communities that may once have been described a working class face real hardship and they are increasingly being forced to the extremes to seek answers and solutions. It's not a phenomena unique to the UK either.

[stoneyburn hibs]

Go Donald Tusk! Speaking up for the 6 million who signed the petition and the 1 million marchers.

[Moulin Yarns]

Now that parliament is going to have the indicative votes discussed and voted upon does it not seem that the whole thing is being done back to front?

Should this not have been carried out 2 years ago so that a consensus could be agreed upon and then the negotiations with the EU undertaken on the views of parliament rather than a narrow group of government members?

[lapsedhibee]

Now that parliament is going to have the indicative votes discussed and voted upon does it not seem that the whole thing is being done back to front?

Should this not have been carried out 2 years ago so that a consensus could be agreed upon and then the negotiations with the EU undertaken on the views of parliament rather than a narrow group of government members?

Not only back to front but good chance now that the whole thing has gone into reverse. Another public vote on something, and revocation, are sitting there in the bag of sweeties for the first time in the whole of those two years.

[JeMeSouviens]

Now that parliament is going to have the indicative votes discussed and voted upon does it not seem that the whole thing is being done back to front?

Should this not have been carried out 2 years ago so that a consensus could be agreed upon and then the negotiations with the EU undertaken on the views of parliament rather than a narrow group of government members?

Yes, that's true. But we are where we are as the horrible cliche goes.

Worth noting also that if it hadn't been for Gina Miller's court action and the Dominic Grieve led guerrilla action to secure a parliamentary vote, May's deal would have been railroaded through months ago.

[JeMeSouviens]

Stephen Bush of the New Statesman's "Morning Call" email - I'm sure he wouldn't mind it being reproduced here in such desperate times. :wink:

Explains all today's amendments, some of their motivations, which are likely to be selected, etc.


Good morning. MPs will tonight vote in a series of indicative votes about the best resolution to the Brexit crisis. Most expect that none of the options will be able to command a parliamentary majority but they may put the Commons on a course to finding a Brexit proposal a majority can coalesce around.

The numbers to watch are 318 and 242. 318 of course is half of all sitting MPs plus one - a parliamentary majority. 242 is the amount of support that the withdrawal agreement and political declaration won on its last appearance in the Commons. The big contest today is not to command a majority but simply to be the closest to a majority. But what are MPs voting on?

John Bercow will select which of the 16 amendments to put before the House, weeding out the duplicates and others at his discretion. But what are the 16 amendments?

Amendment A has no direct implications for Brexit - it deplores the success of MPs in taking control of the order paper and seeks to undo that process. But that it also declines to back the withdrawal agreement and political declaration means it will struggle to get support outside the hard core of committed members of the European Research Group who have signed it - if Bercow even selects it for a vote. It has no chance of passing and isn't even well-placed to unite all supporters of Brexit.

Amendment B is would take the United Kingdom out of the European Union without a deal on 12 April. It's not going to pass and it is only useful for better informing Conservative Kremlinology, and for that reason we should all hope that John Bercow selects it.

Amendment C commits to passing the withdrawal agreement with the backstop removed. If any of the options get a majority today, it will likely be this one. We know there is a narrow majority in the Commons for this but it doesn't matter, because the EU cannot deliver this, as it would mean putting the political demands of a departing member state (the UK) over one that is remaining (Ireland). That would pose an existential threat to the European project and is therefore not going to happen.

Amendment D, the Common Market 2.0 proposal, would seek to amend the political declaration to seek membership of the Efta's EEA pillar and a customs arrangement with the EU. Although the UK might not end up in Efta itself, something like this could be successfully negotiated with the EU. Although it is not going to win a majority today, it is the closest possible relationship with the European Union capable of commanding a parliamentary majority in the House of Commons as it is presently constituted.


Amendment E reiterates MPs' support for the Brexit process. This has a good chance of being selected as it has cross-party support. It is fronted by the Conservative backbencher Will Quince, who a lot of opposition MPs know, like and respect having worked with him on campaigns to improve the care and treatment of bereaved parents. This has a good chance of getting a parliamentary majority but that doesn't really matter because “upholding the referendum result” doesn't, in of itself, actually say anything about where Parliament wants to go, other than out of the EU. If it isn't selected, that will be why.

Amendment F would keep the United Kingdom in a customs union after we leave the EU. It has very little prospect of being selected because it has no cross-party support and is only being backed by Labour MPs who think that the referendum vote was for a) free movement to end and b) as close as possible a trading relationship as you can achieve given a). If selected, the interesting question will be if any of the Labour MPs in Remain-dominated seats who agree with that diagnosis but have yet to put their heads above the parapet join Jim Fitzpatrick, one of the signatories, in going against their largely pro-Remain electorates.

Amendment G calls for revocation if the United Kingdom gets within four days of a no deal Brexit. It doesn't have as much cross-party support as Amendment L, which is virtually identical and you'd assume L is more likely to be selected as a result.

Amendment H would seek membership of the EEA's Efta pillar but wouldn't join a UK-wide customs union so the UK could seek its own trade deals after Brexit. This won't pass, is unlikely to be selected as it has no cross-party support, but if selected, it is worth keeping an eye on who votes for it as it could yet become the mainstream position within the Conservative Party if they can win a majority, decide that Northern Ireland is already different from the rest of the United Kingdom as far as agri-food and energy is concerned and a few more regulatory barriers in the Irish Sea aren't the end of the world. (Several Brexiteers, both those supporting and opposing May's deal, are privately of the view that this is the most desirable post-Brexit end state.)

Amendment I would make any Brexit deal subject to the consent of the devolved institutions. Not going to pass, unlikely to be selected by the Speaker. The main utility of this amendment, whether selected or not, is to better allow the SNP to prosecute the argument that Brexit is a project of England being inflicted on Scotland against its will.

Amendment J would keep the United Kingdom in a customs union. It is more likely to be selected than Amendment F as it has cross-party support and is one of the possible Brexit end states that might be able to command a majority eventually.

Amendment K is Labour's official plan. It is a little harder than the Common Market 2.0 plan as it wouldn't include the free movement of people and would therefore have a slightly lower standard of market access. As it is tabled by the leader of the Opposition it is certain to pass but also certain to be unable to get enough Conservative support to get a majority.

Amendment L would revoke Article 50 if the United Kingdom gets to the deadline without a deal.

Amendment M would subject any Brexit end state to a confirmatory public vote. This will give us a good idea of the size of the second referendum caucus but the crucial thing it will tell us is whether any other Brexit end state can plausibly pass without the support of MPs who want a second referendum. (The answer is probably no.)

Amendment N is the Malthouse Compromise again. It has a smattering of cross-party support but possibly not enough to be selected (it is essentially a Conservative-DUP affair.) In any case, it can't be negotiated with the EU.

Amendment O would essentially seek a “managed no deal”: a series of mini-deals and a transition to a no deal Brexit. Unlikely to be selected as it has no cross-party support, is essentially just an ERG thing, and the EU aren't going to negotiate it because no-one ever negotiates away their leverage unless they are the British Parliament voting to trigger Article 50 without guarantees from the executive.


Amendment P is a no deal amendment that would guarantee EU citizens' rights and reciprocate any measures to manage no deal put forward on member states. Has no effect on Brexit, has no cross party support, unlikely to pass, unlikely to be selected.

That's your lot. Sorry to have written such a long email - I blame Theresa May. Until tomorrow!

[JeMeSouviens]

The voting process - MPs will be given ballot papers with all the Speaker selected amendments and will be able to vote Yes/No on each one. I'm not sure if the ballot is supposed to be secret or not? They can vote for/against/abstain in any combination they like.

The thinking is that some options will fall away due to lack of support and they'll go again on Monday with those left. Aiui they don't need a majority to go forward to Monday, just a significant level of support (for some definition of significant :confused:).

Meanwhile ... May getting some movement from the ERG and still trying to win over the DUP (nae luck so far) and will go for MV3 on Friday if they think it has a chance.

[lapsedhibee]

The voting process - MPs will be given ballot papers with all the Speaker selected amendments and will be able to vote Yes/No on each one. I'm not sure if the ballot is supposed to be secret or not? They can vote for/against/abstain in any combination they like.

The thinking is that some options will fall away due to lack of support and they'll go again on Monday with those left. Aiui they don't need a majority to go forward to Monday, just a significant level of support (for some definition of significant :confused:).

Meanwhile ... May getting some movement from the ERG and still trying to win over the DUP (nae luck so far) and will go for MV3 on Friday if they think it has a chance.

Not secret.

[HappyAsHellas]

Go Donald Tusk! Speaking up for the 6 million who signed the petition and the 1 million marchers.

3 to 400,000 marchers apparently, according to independent study. Understandable that we tend to colour our observations with what we want to see though.

[Ozyhibby]

The voting process - MPs will be given ballot papers with all the Speaker selected amendments and will be able to vote Yes/No on each one. I'm not sure if the ballot is supposed to be secret or not? They can vote for/against/abstain in any combination they like.

The thinking is that some options will fall away due to lack of support and they'll go again on Monday with those left. Aiui they don't need a majority to go forward to Monday, just a significant level of support (for some definition of significant :confused:).

Meanwhile ... May getting some movement from the ERG and still trying to win over the DUP (nae luck so far) and will go for MV3 on Friday if they think it has a chance.

Def won’t be secret. Don’t think that’s allowed in parliament.


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[JeMeSouviens]

Which amendments the main parties will whip for/against still a bit up in the air but the latest seems to be that Labour will whip for the Kyle/Wilson amendment that says any Brexit should be subject to a ratification ref. I'm not sure how they square that with avoiding a long extension but hey, ho, internal consistency doesn't seem to be uppermost in their concerns. :confused:

[SHODAN]

Which amendments the main parties will whip for/against still a bit up in the air but the latest seems to be that Labour will whip for the Kyle/Wilson amendment that says any Brexit should be subject to a ratification ref. I'm not sure how they square that with avoiding a long extension but hey, ho, internal consistency doesn't seem to be uppermost in their concerns. :confused:

That'll pass then if around 20/30 Tories defect, right?

[JeMeSouviens]

That'll pass then if around 20/30 Tories defect, right?

Depends how many Labour Brexiters go the other way. I doubt it'll get a majority today but might in the end. Fingers crossed.

Ideal outcome for me from all this is some kind of very soft Brexit deal with a ratify ref vs Remain. Amazingly, that is just about possible.

[Moulin Yarns]

At least Europe is listening https://twitter.com/rosscolquhoun/status/1110842549051293696

[Future17]

3 to 400,000 marchers apparently, according to independent study. Understandable that we tend to colour our observations with what we want to see though.

That's a large margin of error! :greengrin

[Ozyhibby]

Tories are giving a free vote with cabinet abstaining.
Labour whipping on Kyle/Wilson.




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[Moulin Yarns]

3 to 400,000 marchers apparently, according to independent study. Understandable that we tend to colour our observations with what we want to see though.


On the same day as hundreds of thousands of people took to the streets of London, Nigel Farage appeared at the latest stop of his pro-Brexit March to Leave in Nottinghamshire. Organisers estimated 200 people attended. You would think they could have actually counted them, anything is better than listening to Faux Rage. :wink:

[Jack]

Now that parliament is going to have the indicative votes discussed and voted upon does it not seem that the whole thing is being done back to front?

Should this not have been carried out 2 years ago so that a consensus could be agreed upon and then the negotiations with the EU undertaken on the views of parliament rather than a narrow group of government members?

I'm not sure if it was the views of a few government members, more those that bankroll those government members!

[JeMeSouviens]

Rees-Mogg on Nick Boles:


"My honourable friend makes a characteristically Wykehamist point - highly intelligent, but fundamentally wrong."

Which apparently is to do with what school he went to. :rolleyes:

[HiBremian]

Just had the vote on MPs taking control of today's HoC business and going ahead with the indicative votes process.

For: 331
Against: 287

Bigger majority than on Monday.

[Pretty Boy]

:faf:


Robert Peston
✔
@Peston
Oh my goodness, I cannot believe Tory deputy chairman @JamesCleverly was put up to go on BBC WATO without being told whipping arrangements on today’s vote. Not a sign of a government in control of events in any way

1,586
13:32 - 27 Mar 2019
Twitter Ads information and privacy

[Pretty Boy]

DUP statement incoming........

'We will never, never, never back the deal' would be more comedy gold.

[JeMeSouviens]

Just had the vote on MPs taking control of today's HoC business and going ahead with the indicative votes process.

For: 331
Against: 287

Bigger majority than on Monday.

Crucially gives them next Monday as well for phase 2 post-whittling.

[HiBremian]

Amendements selected for voting : B,D,H,J,K,L,M,O.

see post 6159 above for details.

[SHODAN]

Bercow's gone with the following amendments:
B. No deal
D. Common market 2.0
H. Efta/EEA
J. Customs union
K. Labour plan
L. Revoke instead of No Deal
M. Second referendum
O. Managed No Deal

Would be delighted with: M
Would be very happy with: D, L
Would probably accept: H
Would be unhappy with: J, K
**** no: B, O

[Ozyhibby]

Bercow gave a pretty stern warning to May that MV 3 may not be accepted unless there is significant change.


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[Ozyhibby]

Bercow's gone with the following amendments:
1. No deal
2. Common market 2.0
3. Efta/EEA
4. Customs union
5. Labour plan
6. Revoke in instead of No Deal
7. Second referendum
8. Managed No Deal

Would be delighted with: 7
Would be very happy with: 2, 6
Would probably accept: 3
Would be unhappy with: 4, 5
**** no: 1, 8

I’m pretty much the same but can’t see how 3 would work with no CU in Northern Ireland. The EU won’t agree to that border not being open.


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[SHODAN]

Bercow gave a pretty stern warning to May that MV 3 may not be accepted unless there is significant change.


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Looks like he may try and force the most popular feasible option from today's vote on the government.

[Moulin Yarns]

Amendements selected for voting : B,D,H,J,K,L,M,O.

see post 6159 above for details.

shamelessly stolen from twitter

Very, very tough hand in Scrabble. Can't see any high points totals here.

[JeMeSouviens]

I’m pretty much the same but can’t see how 3 would work with no CU in Northern Ireland. The EU won’t agree to that border not being open.


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Would be the same as May's deal, backstop with all UK in EU customs territory a certainty to be in operation for years. It wouldn't need the extra regulatory alignment in NI though, so the DUP might be a little less miserable.

[BroxburnHibee]

Bercow gave a pretty stern warning to May that MV 3 may not be accepted unless there is significant change.


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Yeah that was telling. I honestly think the only way he'll allow it now is if she allows a confirmation referendum to back it.

[Ozyhibby]

Would be the same as May's deal, backstop with all UK in EU customs territory a certainty to be in operation for years. It wouldn't need the extra regulatory alignment in NI though, so the DUP might be a little less miserable.

DUP won’t matter if Labour Party vote for it.


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[JeMeSouviens]

DUP won’t matter if Labour Party vote for it.


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Labour are whipping for "Labour Brexit", ie. CU + who-knows-if-negotiable-SM-alignment, Ken Clarke's CU amendment and for Beckett (aka the Kyle/Wilson plan) for a confirmatory ref. They've also said they encourage support but aren't whipping for Common Market 2.0 (aka Norway+, ie. SM + CU).

So I guess EEA without CU, ie. actually what Norway has, will probably fall by the wayside anyway? Unless it has a load of secret Tory supporters.

[JeMeSouviens]

Got to say, much as I agreed with his point about no substantial change, I think Bercow is overreaching by saying he won't allow the Commons to vote to overrule that.

[BroxburnHibee]

Stephen Barclay spells out the government wont entertain any of the amendments.

Surprise surprise

[BroxburnHibee]

Got to say, much as I agreed with his point about no substantial change, I think Bercow is overreaching by saying he won't allow the Commons to vote to overrule that.

Didn't hear him say that

[James310]

Didn't hear him say that

Never heard him myself but discussing it now on BBC news.

[JeMeSouviens]

Didn't hear him say that

I didn't either but it's been reported that way:



@faisalislam

Actually Bercow incredibly emphatic - he has instructed the table office that “no such motion will be accepted” - ie a paving or notwithstanding motion that seeks to circumvent his ruling that MV3 must be substantially different from MV2..

[DaveF]

Stephen Barclay spells out the government wont entertain any of the amendments.

Surprise surprise

So the point of all this is that it's a waste of time?

[Ozyhibby]

Got to say, much as I agreed with his point about no substantial change, I think Bercow is overreaching by saying he won't allow the Commons to vote to overrule that.

If they have the numbers to get it through then they will have the numbers to change Bercows ruling.


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[SHODAN]

So the point of all this is that it's a waste of time?

If we reject May's vote and support another deal there will be serious pressure for the govt to cave as they'll then be the ones holding it up.

[JeMeSouviens]

If they have the numbers to get it through then they will have the numbers to change Bercows ruling.


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Not if they can't table a motion to change it.

[JeMeSouviens]

May tells Tories at 1922 meeting she'll quit before next phase of Brexit talks.

[lapsedhibee]

May tells Tories at 1922 meeting she'll quit before next phase of Brexit talks.
She'll be hoping there isn't another phase then, so she can keep her job.

[James310]

General Election?

[Callum_62]

May tells Tories at 1922 meeting she'll quit before next phase of Brexit talks.

Must be a hell of a deal if you need to offer to quit to try and eek it through

Its looking like it will likely be Mays deal or a soft Brexit

I can live with that


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[SHODAN]

General Election?

If it's a hard-right nutcase then their own party might not back then and vote against them in a no-confidence vote; if it's another "compromise" candidate like Amber Rudd then they might hang on a while.

[Jack Hackett]

At least Europe is listening https://twitter.com/rosscolquhoun/status/1110842549051293696

Outstanding speech! :top marks

A slightly longer version posted further down in the comments shows ukip reaction to it

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=33&v=zTWjP7Poh7g

Bankers!

[Bristolhibby]

Talk that Mays Deal might have the numbers in the end. Don’t know if this is true or propoganda.

J

[Ozyhibby]

Talk that Mays Deal might have the numbers in the end. Don’t know if this is true or propoganda.

J

I doubt it still. There will still be about 10-15 ERG members who won’t back it. That means they need Labour mp’s to switch but if they do it possibly brings in a hard right PM. Not many will want that.



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[JeMeSouviens]

I doubt it still. There will still be about 10-15 ERG members who won’t back it. That means they need Labour mp’s to switch but if they do it possibly brings in a hard right PM. Not many will want that.



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Exactly this. If any Labour Brexiter backs the deal on these terms then they're even more nuts than I thought (except Hoey, Stringer, Mann who will for sure and are as nuts as I think).

[Chorley Hibee]

I don't understand why May's offer to resign makes a difference to supporting her deal or not?

Surely if she loses MV3 then she's finished regardless?

[SHODAN]

Exactly this. If any Labour Brexiter backs the deal on these terms then they're even more nuts than I thought (except Hoey, Stringer, Mann who will for sure and are as nuts as I think).

I don't understand why any of them are actually members of Labour; it's not like they're "Lexiters", they just seem to be right-wing Eurosceptics.

[GlesgaeHibby]

Bercow's gone with the following amendments:
B. No deal
D. Common market 2.0
H. Efta/EEA
J. Customs union
K. Labour plan
L. Revoke instead of No Deal
M. Second referendum
O. Managed No Deal

Would be delighted with: M
Would be very happy with: D, L
Would probably accept: H
Would be unhappy with: J, K
**** no: B, O

What on earth is the difference between 'no deal' and 'managed no deal' :faf:

[cabbageandribs1875]

Chuka Umunna voting for Joanna Cherry's amendment

[JeMeSouviens]

I don't understand why May's offer to resign makes a difference to supporting her deal or not?

Surely if she loses MV3 then she's finished regardless?

She protects her “legacy”. Lolz.

[Ozyhibby]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190327/7799998eb0396cb108bda32cfa9011ce.jpg


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[cabbageandribs1875]

Labour MP's told to Abstain from vote on Joanna Cherry's Brexit Proposal

[Callum_62]

Labour MP's told to Abstain from vote on Joanna Cherry's Brexit Proposal

Shockerooni [emoji102]


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[matty_f]

It's a scandal that May's resignation is a factor in getting people to vote for it.

Yesterday it wasn't in the country's interests but now there's a sniff of a leadership challenge it is. I'd jail these ****s for the mess that they're making of this.

[Ozyhibby]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190327/822d572c1d9422cb11312c8e760b732e.jpg


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[heretoday]

I don't understand why any of them are actually members of Labour; it's not like they're "Lexiters", they just seem to be right-wing Eurosceptics.

Tony Benn was anti-EU.

[Chorley Hibee]

It's a scandal that May's resignation is a factor in getting people to vote for it.

Yesterday it wasn't in the country's interests but now there's a sniff of a leadership challenge it is. I'd jail these ****s for the mess that they're making of this.

Party allegiance and personal advancement continue to take precedence over the national interest.

Utter disgrace!

[Callum_62]

Party allegiance and personal advancement continue to take precedence over the national interest.

Utter disgrace!

According to the secretary of state she is actually putting the nations interest in front of personal interest

Incredible.


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[James310]

It's a scandal that May's resignation is a factor in getting people to vote for it.

Yesterday it wasn't in the country's interests but now there's a sniff of a leadership challenge it is. I'd jail these ****s for the mess that they're making of this.

Is it though? The deal is the same. I may be mistaken but have any MPs come out and said now she is resigning they will now vote for the deal when before they would not have?

[Callum_62]

Is it though? The deal is the same. I may be mistaken but have any MPs come out and said now she is resigning they will now vote for the deal when before they would not have?

Certainly Boris hinted at it

Guess we may find out by end of the week

If anyone changes then it can only be due to mays resignation


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[James310]

Certainly Boris hinted at it

Guess we may find out by end of the week

If anyone changes then it can only be due to mays resignation


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Is it not because they now realise that there is a very big chance of no Brexit at all?

[Callum_62]

Is it not because they now realise that there is a very big chance of no Brexit at all?

I dont really buy that

They should be voting on the merit of the deal - not on if buts and maybes

If the deal was so bad for the country a few weeks ago- it really hasnt improved


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[James310]

I dont really buy that

They should be voting on the merit of the deal - not on if buts and maybes

If the deal was so bad for the country a few weeks ago- it really hasnt improved


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So how has May leaving made them change their mind as you were suggesting?

[JeMeSouviens]

The hardcore ERG have started calling themselves “Spartans”. Estimates are around 30 of them are holding out. MV3 toiling with those numbers.

[Callum_62]

So how has May leaving made them change their mind as you were suggesting?

Youl need to ask them that. Certainly that’s how Boris piece came over to me and other political commentators

So whats May done since MV2 and now?

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190327/db7609f37da8b669eb40ea62b9e633d1.jpg


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[lapsedhibee]

So how has May leaving made them change their mind as you were suggesting?

They want rid of her. They can't vote her out for another nine months. She's offered them a way to get rid of her, and quite a few have accepted the offer.

[marinello59]

So how has May leaving made them change their mind as you were suggesting?

Selfish political ambition.

[Mibbes Aye]

Labour MP's told to Abstain from vote on Joanna Cherry's Brexit Proposal

So what?

A lot of Labour MPs represent seats that voted decisively for Brexit. Voting for the revocation of Article 50 doesn’t match the views of their constituents.

Labour has whipped its MPs on three of the amendments and soft whipped on a fourth.

One of the three they have whipped on is Beckett’s second referendum or ‘confirmatory public vote’ as I believe we now call it.

[James310]

DUP still not supporting the deal.

[stokesmessiah]

DUP Wont support the agreement. She ain't going to get it through.

[Ozyhibby]

Arlene Foster just announced DUP won’t support May’s deal.


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[cabbageandribs1875]

So what?

A lot of Labour MPs represent seats that voted decisively for Brexit. Voting for the revocation of Article 50 doesn’t match the views of their constituents.

Labour has whipped its MPs on three of the amendments and soft whipped on a fourth.

One of the three they have whipped on is Beckett’s second referendum or ‘confirmatory public vote’ as I believe we now call it.


what do you mean "so what" ? :confused: i'm only saying, jeezo
,

[JeMeSouviens]

So what?

A lot of Labour MPs represent seats that voted decisively for Brexit. Voting for the revocation of Article 50 doesn’t match the views of their constituents.

Labour has whipped its MPs on three of the amendments and soft whipped on a fourth.

One of the three they have whipped on is Beckett’s second referendum or ‘confirmatory public vote’ as I believe we now call it.

It’s only revocation if we’re definitely heading out with no deal otherwise. An insurance policy that would actually definitively rule out no deal.

I expect lots of sensible Labour MPs will back it.

[jonty]

I dont really buy that

They should be voting on the merit of the deal - not on if buts and maybes

If the deal was so bad for the country a few weeks ago- it really hasnt improved


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They should be but as we've seen before they play stupid games if the "time isn't right".

[Mibbes Aye]

what do you mean "so what" ? :confused: i'm only saying, jeezo
,

I mean that the leadership were always very unlikely to whip MPs to vote for this amendment, for understandable reasons (though not ones I necessarily agree with).

[marinello59]

Arlene Foster just announced DUP won’t support May’s deal.


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Even the DUP , as odious as I may find them, are sticking to their principles. Meanwhile Tories who resigned from the Goverment or tried to bring down their own leader because the deal was so bad for the country are now saying they can support it.

[jonty]

The hardcore ERG have started calling themselves “Spartans”. Estimates are around 30 of them are holding out. MV3 toiling with those numbers.

jumped up pompous ********s.

[Mibbes Aye]

It’s only revocation if we’re definitely heading out with no deal otherwise. An insurance policy that would actually definitively rule out no deal.

I expect lots of sensible Labour MPs will back it.

I thought it was revocation if first, May’s deal was voted down and then ‘no deal’ was voted down as a follow-on. I could be wrong though, wouldn’t be a first.

My own views are probably different from that of the Labour leadership but I wouldn’t have a problem with voting for the amendment, though I can understand why Beckett’s is seen as democratic (and also to an extent, the other two being whipped for).

[SHODAN]

Tony Benn was anti-EU.

Tony Benn was a left-winger. The other three - as I said - seem to hold very right wing views more in line with the Conservatives.

[James310]

Even the DUP , as odious as I may find them, are sticking to their principles. Meanwhile Tories who resigned from the Goverment or tried to bring down their own leader because the deal was so bad for the country are now saying they can support it.

They are after all the Democratic and Unionist Party. Brexit is important but not as important as maintaining the Union.

[SHODAN]

They are after all the Democratic and Unionist Party. Brexit is important but not as important as maintaining the Union.

If they cared so much about their precious Union they shouldn't have risked it by campaigning for a Leave vote in the first place.

[James310]

Prominent Brexiter talking to journalist off the record,

"We never expected to win, we didn't want to win. What we wanted was to frighten Brussels into giving us a better deal. Now we're all screwed and there's no way out"

[James310]

So what now?

[GlesgaeHibby]

What a cluster****

[marinello59]

What a mess.

[jonty]

Prominent Brexiter talking to journalist off the record,

"We never expected to win, we didn't want to win. What we wanted was to frighten Brussels into giving us a better deal. Now we're all screwed and there's no way out"

Seriously? Its Camerons grandstanding all over again.

[JeMeSouviens]

What a cluster****

Not really. The 2 hardest Brexit options got biggest defeats. Closest to majority CU and Ref2.

[Ozyhibby]

Not really. The 2 hardest Brexit options got biggest defeats. Closest to majority CU and Ref2.

I agree, good news for those looking for a 2nd ref. Only thing is the ERG will bring down the govt if it heads that way. GE still most likely in my opinion.


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[bawheid]

Whittle down the options that got the least support and go again Monday. It was always going to happen this way.

There will now be a desperate last ditch attempt to get MV3 up and through.

[Hibrandenburg]

Not really. The 2 hardest Brexit options got biggest defeats. Closest to majority CU and Ref2.

:agree: We're now a big step closer to a 2nd referendum, no Brexit and civil war.

[JeMeSouviens]

I agree, good news for those looking for a 2nd ref. Only thing is the ERG will bring down the govt if it heads that way. GE still most likely in my opinion.


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I agree GE + long delay is favourite.