General election 2019

[Hibernia&Alba]

Inheritance Tax as currently operated has its own unfairnesses. Heavily skewed against unmarried people, and against people without children, for example.


It's possible (and increasingly common) for people with high-value residential properties to make arrangements to significantly reduce the liability on their estates in relation to inheritance tax; at certain levels, the liability can be removed altogether.

There is also the indirectly related difficulty of people occupying homes which are far larger than they require, which causes all sorts of knock-on problems.

I think a "fair" system of local resident taxation would have to take account of the full asset picture, not just income.

Tax loopholes are a massive problem in all areas and need addressing. Isn't the UK tax code the longest in the world, at over ten million words? It needs re-writing, simplifying and then strictly enforced.

[Ozyhibby]

Tax loopholes are a massive problem in all areas and need addressing. Isn't the UK tax code the longest in the world, at over ten million words? It needs re-writing, simplifying and then strictly enforced.

Simplification would make a massive difference. Currently in the UK some of our smartest people are employed as accountants trying to work their way round the tax code rather than working in productive side of the economy. That’s why our productivity in Britain is so poor.
My own business is very easy to run (it has to be[emoji6]) but the hardest part is doing the year end accounts and I spend a fair chunk of change making sure I don’t pay too much or too little tax. It’s money that is not productive and raises prices for my customers.


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[CloudSquall]

https://mobile.twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1198998239128805377

Thick of It outtake.

[RyeSloan]

It's possible (and increasingly common) for people with high-value residential properties to make arrangements to significantly reduce the liability on their estates in relation to inheritance tax; at certain levels, the liability can be removed altogether.

There is also the indirectly related difficulty of people occupying homes which are far larger than they require, which causes all sorts of knock-on problems.

I think a "fair" system of local resident taxation would have to take account of the full asset picture, not just income.

You make a very good point. The fixation on ‘income’ as the only fair way to tax people is somewhat misleading.

Someone can have considerable wealth but not have a large income. Income can also be massaged and measured in many different ways. The recent ‘5%’ argument is a case in point. Currently it seems income is measured largely by PAYE returns but we all know that there are many jobs and mechanisms to ‘falsely’ deflate those numbers...sadly not for many who are normally employed but there a huge numbers who use cash in hand or company dividends etc to skirt round the PAYE route.

Using an online calculator that uses these numbers suggests that someone earning £40k a year is ‘richer’ than 90% of the population...that means a teacher in Scotland on point 5 on the new standard scale is considered as entering the top 10%. I would bet my bottom dollar someone who earns that figure does not feel anywhere near that level of ‘richness’.


On Council Tax it could be argued that council tax is actually a type of crude wealth tax as it it levied on house values which of course makes up part of someone’s wealth...sure the size of mortgage and ability to pay elements are totally missed but none the less it remains an outlier in terms of the tax being based on the value of someone’s asset.

Not sure I’ve put forward any solutions to the problem but maybe a local sales tax rather than a local income tax might be one alternative?

[Ozyhibby]

You make a very good point. The fixation on ‘income’ as the only fair way to tax people is somewhat misleading.

Someone can have considerable wealth but not have a large income. Income can also be massaged and measured in many different ways. The recent ‘5%’ argument is a case in point. Currently it seems income is measured largely by PAYE returns but we all know that there are many jobs and mechanisms to ‘falsely’ deflate those numbers...sadly not for many who are normally employed but there a huge numbers who use cash in hand or company dividends etc to skirt round the PAYE route.

Using an online calculator that uses these numbers suggests that someone earning £40k a year is ‘richer’ than 90% of the population...that means a teacher in Scotland on point 5 on the new standard scale is considered as entering the top 10%. I would bet my bottom dollar someone who earns that figure does not feel anywhere near that level of ‘richness’.


On Council Tax it could be argued that council tax is actually a type of crude wealth tax as it it levied on house values which of course makes up part of someone’s wealth...sure the size of mortgage and ability to pay elements are totally missed but none the less it remains an outlier in terms of the tax being based on the value of someone’s asset.

Not sure I’ve put forward any solutions to the problem but maybe a local sales tax rather than a local income tax might be one alternative?

It’s also not great if you are taxing work. The more people work the better off we all are and taxing work discourages it.
Sadly, the system we have just now may be the least worst option. And politically I can’t see it changing because any new system will create winners and losers and the losers will complain very loudly and the winners will not say a peep.


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[JeMeSouviens]

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 41% (-1)
LAB: 34% (+2)
LDEM: 13% (-)
BREX: 4% (-1)

via @ICMResearch, 22 - 25 Nov
Chgs. w/ 18 Nov

The 2 party fptp squeeze continues and Farage is all but disappearing without trace.

[JeMeSouviens]

Yet more squeezing. Lab perking up a bit in Welsh heartland.

Welsh Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 38% (+9)
CON: 32% (+4)
PC: 11% (-1)
LDEM: 9% (-3)
BREX: 8% (-7)
GRN: 1% (-2)

via @YouGov, 22 - 25 Nov
Chgs. w/ early Nov

[Jack Hackett]

Meanwhile at the Tory manifesto launch....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tGUWMSZXYaQ&feature=emb_logo

:hide:

They applauded that waffle... They actually ******* applauded!


https://twitter.com/DavidGauke/status/1198697894964060160

(watch to the end :greengrin)

:top marks
Brilliant!

[stokesmessiah]

Meanwhile at the Tory manifesto launch....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tGUWMSZXYaQ&feature=emb_logo

Jesus, I got a minute into that video and he started rambling and instantly in my head was....don’t say it, don’t say it... oh there you go, the Tory answer to every question, Brexit.

[stokesmessiah]

https://mobile.twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1198998239128805377

Thick of It outtake.

Sorry for being a bit dense, but is that spoof? That’s not real is it?

[bigwheel]

Sorry for being a bit dense, but is that spoof? That’s not real is it?

Unfortunately it is real....

[Ozyhibby]

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 41% (-1)
LAB: 34% (+2)
LDEM: 13% (-)
BREX: 4% (-1)

via @ICMResearch, 22 - 25 Nov
Chgs. w/ 18 Nov

The 2 party fptp squeeze continues and Farage is all but disappearing without trace.

That would give a Tory majority of just 4. Would be tight for Johnson to ‘get Brexit done’ although I’m pretty sure all Tory candidates had to agree to sign up to his deal to stay on so maybe.


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[Hibernia&Alba]

Not sure I’ve put forward any solutions to the problem but maybe a local sales tax rather than a local income tax might be one alternative?

Sales taxes, and all indirect taxes, such as VAT, are regressive because everyone pays the same rate. We would need a progressive system based upon ability to pay.

[Ozyhibby]

Sales taxes, and all indirect taxes, such as VAT, are regressive because everyone pays the same rate. We would need a progressive system based upon ability to pay.

Although the VAT on a Aston Martin is higher than the VAT on a Ford Focus so the rich are still paying more. And there is no VAT on privately sold second hand cars so the less well off can avoid it altogether.


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[Hibernia&Alba]

Although the VAT on a Aston Martin is higher than the VAT on a Ford Focus so the rich are still paying more. And there is no VAT on privately sold second hand cars so the less well off can avoid it altogether.


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True, but it's still a flat tax, which is inevitably regressive. A sales tax will effect the poor disproportionately more.

[Frankhfc]

True, but it's still a flat tax, which is inevitably regressive. A sales tax will effect the poor disproportionately more.

It all sounds the same old. After Indy I'm expecting the people currently enjoying the likes of Barnton, Myreside, Inverleith, Braids, Grange etc to be emptied out and replaced with hard pressed Niddrie, Westerhailes, Granton, Pilton people who deserve a break and to enjoy the high life. Lets have a real revolution. :greengrin

[G B Young]

From Reuters:

25 NOVEMBER 2019 • 7:35PM
Boris Johnson’s Tories have established their biggest lead over Labour for two years, a monthly poll of polls has revealed.
The new poll shows the Tories with the same 13 per cent lead that Theresa May had at the same point in the 2017 campaign with two and a half weeks to go before her bungled manifesto launch led to a collapse in her support to just two per cent by election day.
It predicts an 80-seat majority for the Tories.
The monthly poll of polls shows November was the best month the Tories have had since the last election with the Tories on 43 per cent against Labour’s 29.9 per cent.
It would put the Tories on 365 seats and Labour on 202, while the Lib Dems on 15.1 per cent would get 20 seats, according to the analysis by Electoral Calculus.

[Alex Trager]

I read further that if the poll was correct Labour would lose all seats in Scotland bar Ian Murray (who's elected on a personal vote rather than a Labour vote), trying to out union the Tories is a disaster.

It seems a lot depends on how uniformed the percentages are across Scotland, if the percentages for the Tories were the same across Scotland they would lose one seat (Stirling), but they would lose another 4 if the swing was more than 2% away from them than in the poll.


The Times is saying the below, I'm hoping this is the typical "sources say" nonsense but could there really be that many nationalists willing to vote Tory for Brexit?

"SNP sources say there has been significant levels of doorstep feedback showing people who tend to vote nationalist will vote Tory this time due to their support for Brexit."



I'd imagine they will pull in votes from the north due to the fishing communities and in the South due to the fermers, but elsewhere? I'm guessing the "No Surrender / Follow on" types too..

What is the reason that Ian Murray seems to continually get voted in?
I have no idea how he does it

[Alex Trager]

Unfortunately it is real....

Wait. Surely it’s no real?

[Hibernia&Alba]

:hide:

They applauded that waffle... They actually ******* applauded!



:top marks
Brilliant!

"I recognise you, it's Steve, isn't it"?
"Yeah, we just spoke two minutes ago on the phone"

:greengrin

[Jack Hackett]

Sorry for being a bit dense, but is that spoof? That’s not real is it?

The full piece is here https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/general-election-latest-tory-fake-swing-voter-boris-johnson-crick-ashfield-lee-anderson-a9216986.html?fbclid=IwAR3yOq86E8upsdL3T4MwQ8b0Pmy a1KTMC1hNwX72f4uIfh4FBt0PN1gcVkM

There's an encounter with an angry woman as well :greengrin

[allmodcons]

I don't hate him. I just think he's a spectacularly awful leader of the Labour Party who we'll hopefully see the back of in a couple of weeks.

What's your opinion of Johnson? Would you vote for him?

[G B Young]

What's your opinion of Johnson? Would you vote for him?

I don't particularly like him but I rate him higher than Corbyn. Whether I vote Tory is another question as there's not a lot of point in doing so in my constituency.

[G B Young]

What is the reason that Ian Murray seems to continually get voted in?
I have no idea how he does it

My sister lives in his constituency and said he really puts in the hours as a local MP, although in 2015 I seem to recall he was voted in more in order to keep the SNP out than because the constituency is staunchly Labour. As others have said, he's not exactly a Corbynite so tends to present himself as more of an independent.

[JimBHibees]

What is the reason that Ian Murray seems to continually get voted in?
I have no idea how he does it

Think he benefits from tactical voting by mainly Tories to keep snp out.

[One Day Soon]

Think he benefits from tactical voting by mainly Tories to keep snp out.

He's a hard working MP, he's a decent guy, his core Labour vote has held up well because he's not a shallow Corbynite twat, he benefits from tactical voting against the Nats, the Nats locally trashed their own reputation in 2015 with this slip of the mask: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-scotland-32433723 (https://)and he's not been shy about campaigning hard for Remain. Pretty straightforward really.

[steakbake]

My sister lives in his constituency and said he really puts in the hours as a local MP, although in 2015 I seem to recall he was voted in more in order to keep the SNP out than because the constituency is staunchly Labour. As others have said, he's not exactly a Corbynite so tends to present himself as more of an independent.

I agree about him putting in the hours. In my line of work, I’ve needed the help and influence of his office a couple of times to help people out and they’ve been unfailingly fantastic and got results.

As a representative of people, I really can’t fault his efforts.

I’d also put Tommy Sheppard and Diedre Brock into that category from my experience of them.

Haven’t had any dealings with Joanna Cherry or Christine Jardine.

[G B Young]

This just isn't going away for Labour:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/25/labour-has-let-poison-of-antisemitism-take-root-says-chief-rabbi

[Hibrandenburg]

This just isn't going away for Labour:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/25/labour-has-let-poison-of-antisemitism-take-root-says-chief-rabbi

There's no smoke without fire, however I'd wager that antisemitism is more a problem of the right rather than the left.

[JimBHibees]

He's a hard working MP, he's a decent guy, his core Labour vote has held up well because he's not a shallow Corbynite twat, he benefits from tactical voting against the Nats, the Nats locally trashed their own reputation in 2015 with this slip of the mask: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-scotland-32433723 (https://)and he's not been shy about campaigning hard for Remain. Pretty straightforward really.

Why so aggressive? :greengrin Can never forgive his UJ jacket though.

[Ozyhibby]

There's no smoke without fire, however I'd wager that antisemitism is more a problem of the right rather than the left.

It should have been dealt with and that it a reflection on Corbyn. People criticise new Labour but no way would they have let the Labour Party’s reputation be damaged the way Corbyn has.


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[HibernianJK]

This just isn't going away for Labour:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/25/labour-has-let-poison-of-antisemitism-take-root-says-chief-rabbi

A close personal friend of Johnson by his own admission. Hardly surprising he’s taken this stance.

[One Day Soon]

Why so aggressive? :greengrin Can never forgive his UJ jacket though.


Me? I am, as you well know JimB, just a pussycat.

I applaud his sensible commitment to the union, but that jacket...:bitchy:

Actually every time I see that picture I feel like I want to order a 99 cone.

[One Day Soon]

A close personal friend of Johnson by his own admission. Hardly surprising he’s taken this stance.

The trope of a Jewish international pro-capitalist conspiracy has been one of the favourite circle jerk fantasies of the extreme left since the beginning of the last century. Add that to the contemporary festering mess in Palestine and you have the perfect hard left wet dream hate target - all that's missing really to complete it is some USA element.

Since Miliband facilitated the entryism into Labour of any Trot in the country who fancied it with the discounted membership scheme the anti-semitic stuff has skyrocketed. The stuff that makes the news is just the tip of the iceberg, what is said almost casually now in the informality of conversations at and around party meetings is mind blowing.

Of course most members aren't anti-semitic but their exposure to the political lines coming out of those entryists with a more hard bitten and organised hard left perspective has increasingly made it more commonplace.

Corbyn's behaviour on the whole issue has earned him every bit of opprobrium he gets. The fact that he is yet to sue anyone over the way he has been called out on the matter speaks volumes.

It's not hard to imagine the swift and unequivocal defence that Labour would rightly have made of most other minorities being targeted in this way - the deliberately ambivalent dog whistling that has been displayed instead over anti-semitism screams its own truth.

[Future17]

Ah, just what this election needs, religious intervention.

I don't have the knowledge or experience to know whether what he is saying about Corbyn and Labour is accurate, but I'm disappointed a person in his position has chosen to single out one party leader whilst ignoring the racist and homophobic language used by another.

[Ozyhibby]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191126/214c845ae4f53787c4de529a7692f218.jpg
Polls tightening?


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[Hibernia&Alba]

The trope of a Jewish international pro-capitalist conspiracy has been one of the favourite circle jerk fantasies of the extreme left since the beginning of the last century. Add that to the contemporary festering mess in Palestine and you have the perfect hard left wet dream hate target - all that's missing really to complete it is some USA element.

Since Miliband facilitated the entryism into Labour of any Trot in the country who fancied it with the discounted membership scheme the anti-semitic stuff has skyrocketed. The stuff that makes the news is just the tip of the iceberg, what is said almost casually now in the informality of conversations at and around party meetings is mind blowing.

Of course most members aren't anti-semitic but their exposure to the political lines coming out of those entryists with a more hard bitten and organised hard left perspective has increasingly made it more commonplace.

Corbyn's behaviour on the whole issue has earned him every bit of opprobrium he gets. The fact that he is yet to sue anyone over the way he has been called out on the matter speaks volumes.

It's not hard to imagine the swift and unequivocal defence that Labour would rightly have made of most other minorities being targeted in this way - the deliberately ambivalent dog whistling that has been displayed instead over anti-semitism screams its own truth.

Jeremy Corbyn has spent his entire life fighting prejudice in all its forms; few politicians can match his record. I'm sure there are examples of anti-Semitic bigots in the Labour Party, and such people should be expelled, but I'm certain that bigotry is far more of a problem in the Conservative Party. Why isn't the alleged Islamophobia in their party getting the same amount of coverage? Why isn't Johnson's appalling history of bigoted comments about all kinds of people - Muslim, black, gay, French, for example - more of an issue? Had Corbyn ever once said something as insulting as Johnson, we would never hear the end of it. There is a huge hypocrisy at play here.

[Ozyhibby]

Jeremy Corbyn has spent his entire life fighting prejudice in all its forms; few politicians can match his record. I'm sure there are examples of anti-Semitic bigots in the Labour Party, and such people should be expelled, but I'm certain that bigotry is far more of a problem in the Conservative Party. Why isn't the alleged Islamophobia in their party getting the same amount of coverage? Why isn't Johnson's appalling history of bigoted comments about all kinds of people - Muslim, black, gay, French, for example - more of an issue? Had Corbyn ever once said something as insulting as Johnson, we would never hear the end of it. There is a huge hypocrisy at play here.

Why are the Labour Party letting others set the narrative. If Alistair Campbell was still there this would have been shut down 2 years ago. There would have been PR events with the top rabbi, Labour events in the Jewish community and any anti Semitic remarks would have been met wit immediate expulsion. It’s not hypocrisy at all, it’s just that it is such an open goal for the press that it would be rude not to take a shot.


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[Hibernia&Alba]

Why are the Labour Party letting others set the narrative. If Alistair Campbell was still there this would have been shut down 2 years ago. There would have been PR events with the top rabbi, Labour events in the Jewish community and any anti Semitic remarks would have been met wit immediate expulsion. It’s not hypocrisy at all, it’s just that it is such an open goal for the press that it would be rude not to take a shot.


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I agree with you regarding the inept rebuttal Labour is putting forward; however, I do think there is hypocrisy here. Labour has carried out a full investigation of alleged anti-Semitism, whereas the Conservatives have refused to investigate alleged Islamophobia. Johnson's own behaviour hasn't been covered in anything like the detail it would have been against Corbyn. Of course this hypocrisy is to be expected in the Pro-Tory newspapers, but TV news is just as skewed in its reporting. How much coverage has there been of Islamophobia compared to anti-Semitism?

[Ozyhibby]

I agree with you regarding the inept rebuttal Labour is putting forward; however, I do think there is hypocrisy here. Labour has carried out a full investigation of alleged anti-Semitism, whereas the Conservatives have refused to investigate alleged Islamophobia. Johnson's own behaviour hasn't been covered in anything like the detail it would have been against Corbyn. Of course this hypocrisy is to be expected in the Pro-Tory newspapers, but TV news is just as skewed in its reporting. How much coverage has there been of Islamophobia compared to anti-Semitism?

Because of the efficiency of the relative PR machines?
When your getting beat, it’s always best to look at where you are going wrong rather than the ref or the opposition.


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[Frankhfc]

Because of the efficiency of the relative PR machines?
When your getting beat, it’s always best to look at where you are going wrong rather than the ref or the opposition.


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Corbyn's handling of the situation has been very poor. He's not a leader and never will be. The sooner they elect a new centre left one the better Labour will do in future elections. They're currently a shambles.

[JimBHibees]

Me? I am, as you well know JimB, just a pussycat.

I applaud his sensible commitment to the union, but that jacket...:bitchy:

Actually every time I see that picture I feel like I want to order a 99 cone.

:greengrin

[JimBHibees]

A close personal friend of Johnson by his own admission. Hardly surprising he’s taken this stance.

Is Johnston jewish?

[JimBHibees]

Ah, just what this election needs, religious intervention.

I don't have the knowledge or experience to know whether what he is saying about Corbyn and Labour is accurate, but I'm disappointed a person in his position has chosen to single out one party leader whilst ignoring the racist and homophobic language used by another.

Couldn't agree more, would also have liked to see him comment on growing Islamophobia and racism. Would have been a much more balanced view IMO.

[Cataplana]

Without stirring the brown stuff, I can say from recent experience how easy it would be to come by polling cards, especially if money changes hands.

Just take a look at the number of people caring for others ar home. It would be very easy to lift their polling card

When you consider that majorities can be so low even 50 cards could be gold dust.

[G B Young]

A close personal friend of Johnson by his own admission. Hardly surprising he’s taken this stance.

Where does the story say that?

[Renfrew_Hibby]

Any predictions of how's its going to pan out seat wise in Scotland now we are getting a clearer picture as the campaign continues?

Six weeks ago it was going to be a total wipe out for the tories and the Snp were on course to win 50+ then it was perhaps the tories will cling on to 3 or 4 in the North East and borders.

Now it seems the 'get Brexit done' and the fear of another referendum is firming up the tories vote, lib dems and tories are quite happy to vote for each other tactically in key seats resulting in a poll claiming the Snp will only just nick Stirling off the Tories and no other blue seats will be lost.

I'm an Snp remainer but I could see this comming a mile off. The utter collapse of the Labour vote will spare their blushes as they should pick up 4-6 of their cental belt seats but I can see them perhaps losing 2 or three such as Pete Wishart in Perth and obviously NE Fife.

So I think the best we (Snp) can hope for is 40 but I'm thinking 38/39 by close of play. Hope I'm wrong and a few more tory seats fall but I just can't see it.

[G B Young]

Jeremy Corbyn has spent his entire life fighting prejudice in all its forms; few politicians can match his record. I'm sure there are examples of anti-Semitic bigots in the Labour Party, and such people should be expelled, but I'm certain that bigotry is far more of a problem in the Conservative Party. Why isn't the alleged Islamophobia in their party getting the same amount of coverage? Why isn't Johnson's appalling history of bigoted comments about all kinds of people - Muslim, black, gay, French, for example - more of an issue? Had Corbyn ever once said something as insulting as Johnson, we would never hear the end of it. There is a huge hypocrisy at play here.

This is the stock phrase that seems to get rolled out every time the anti-Semitism issue comes to the fore again - as though it immediately puts Corbyn in the clear ie Jeremy's fought prejudice 'in all its forms' all his life therefore it's impossible that he could have any racist views. Fact, end of, next question.

It strikes me that until this issue reached crisis point for Labour, Corbyn regularly fudged the issue by throwing in that phrase 'in all its forms' rather than focusing on anti-Semitism per se. It gives the impression he is reluctant to do so and fails to allay suspicions that his interest in combating racism is somewhat selective - coupled with the likelihood that his anti-Israel stance makes this an uncomfortable issue for him. The fact that it continues to dog Labour more than three years down the line - and has culminated in an unprecedented investigation by the EHRC underlines how unconvincing the party's efforts have been to deal with it.

[JeMeSouviens]

Any predictions of how's its going to pan out seat wise in Scotland now we are getting a clearer picture as the campaign continues?

Six weeks ago it was going to be a total wipe out for the tories and the Snp were on course to win 50+ then it was perhaps the tories will cling on to 3 or 4 in the North East and borders.

Now it seems the 'get Brexit done' and the fear of another referendum is firming up the tories vote, lib dems and tories are quite happy to vote for each other tactically in key seats resulting in a poll claiming the Snp will only just nick Stirling off the Tories and no other blue seats will be lost.

I'm an Snp remainer but I could see this comming a mile off. The utter collapse of the Labour vote will spare their blushes as they should pick up 4-6 of their cental belt seats but I can see them perhaps losing 2 or three such as Pete Wishart in Perth and obviously NE Fife.

So I think the best we (Snp) can hope for is 40 but I'm thinking 38/39 by close of play. Hope I'm wrong and a few more tory seats fall but I just can't see it.

The Tory "revival" is really the disappearance of the Brexit party and that hardline faction of Leavers returning to the Tories. I think the SNP will take back 6 of the 7 Lab seats. I also think the SNP turnout will be better than 2017 and there might be a wee bit of remain tactical voting against the Tories as well as the unionist tactical vote in their favour. So I'm still hopeful the Tories will be reduced at least to single figures.

There are tons of marginal seats in Scotland now though.

[Hibernia&Alba]

This is the stock phrase that seems to get rolled out every time the anti-Semitism issue comes to the fore again - as though it immediately puts Corbyn in the clear ie Jeremy's fought prejudice 'in all its forms' all his life therefore it's impossible that he could have any racist views. Fact, end of, next question.

It strikes me that until this issue reached crisis point for Labour, Corbyn regularly fudged the issue by throwing in that phrase 'in all its forms' rather than focusing on anti-Semitism per se. It gives the impression he is reluctant to do so and fails to allay suspicions that his interest in combating racism is somewhat selective - coupled with the likelihood that his anti-Israel stance makes this an uncomfortable issue for him. The fact that it continues to dog Labour more than three years down the line - and has culminated in an unprecedented investigation by the EHRC underlines how unconvincing the party's efforts have been to deal with it.\

He has specifically cited anti-Semitism numerous times. There are anti-Jewish bigots in all walks of life, and there will be some in the Labour Party, but Corbyn has rightly said there will be zero tolerance of such conduct. This clearly contrasts with the Conservative Party, which has refused to even look into allegations of Islamophobia. It's certainly been a PR disaster, no question. I do think some of this is motivated by Corbyn's support (correct in my view) of Palestinian rights and an end to the Israeli occupation, and some malicious people are trying to conflate the two issues for political advantage, the same way some unionists are trying to use his support for a united Ireland as evidence of his being pro-IRA, which is also incorrect.

[Pretty Boy]

I've said my piece on how badly the anti Semitism accusations have been handled by Labour. It's been farcical and the victim blaming was and is at times shameful.

However it's worth pointing out the Chief Rabbi who spoke today represents only about 40000 of the estimated 250 000 Jews living in the UK. A sizeable number but not all, not even a majority. He is 'a' rather than 'the' Chief Rabbi.His position is not the same as, as an example, the Pope who is recognised as the leader of the Church by all but a few fringe, schismatic 'Catholics'. To carry on that theme it would be the equivalent of suggesting the words of the Pope represent all Christians regardless of how different their beliefs may be from those of Rome.

Of course if he has felt the need to speak on behalf of his followers then his words should be heeded. However there have been many Jewish people using social media to point out that he doesn't speak for them and making people aware of the diffuse range of opinion and beliefs within the Jewish population of the UK.

[Hibernia&Alba]

Corbyn interview with Andrew Neil at 7. He needs to nail this once and for all.

[G B Young]

Corbyn interview with Andrew Neil at 7. He needs to nail this once and for all.

Emphatically failed to nail it:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50564965

Even by Corbyn's standards I'm taken aback by how badly he handled that. Even 'I don't think an apology is required in this case' would have been better than that wittering non-answer.

[G B Young]

The Tory "revival" is really the disappearance of the Brexit party and that hardline faction of Leavers returning to the Tories. I think the SNP will take back 6 of the 7 Lab seats. I also think the SNP turnout will be better than 2017 and there might be a wee bit of remain tactical voting against the Tories as well as the unionist tactical vote in their favour. So I'm still hopeful the Tories will be reduced at least to single figures.

There are tons of marginal seats in Scotland now though.

Hard to see past an SNP landslide in terms of seats. I think the Tory share of the vote might hold up better than predicted (though I'm not sure collapse of the Brexit Party vote will have much bearing in Scotland) but won't translate to many actual seats - single figures is probably about right, although the vote share might be enough for Johnson to cite as evidence that there's not an all-conquering desire for independence. I agree Labour could quite conceivably lose all bar one of their seats. The Tories' biggest asset here was Ruth Davidson, but now both they and Labour are virtually anonymous in terms of leadership. Can't remember how many seats the Lib Dems have in Scotland (three or four?) but they might also be back down to one or two.

[Hibernia&Alba]

Emphatically failed to nail it:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50564965

Even by Corbyn's standards I'm taken aback by how badly he handled that. Even 'I don't think an apology is required in this case' would have been better than that wittering non-answer.

Neil wouldn't let him complete an answer, but I think he should have explicitly apologised by saying something like "if any British Jews feel that the Labour Party or that I personally have let them down, I'm sorry and I reiterate that there will be zero tolerance". Not difficult.

[Ozyhibby]

Anything above 40 seats for the SNP would be a success I think.


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[Bostonhibby]

Neil wouldn't let him complete an answer, but I think he should have explicitly apologised by saying something like "if any British Jews feel that the Labour Party or that I personally have let them down, I'm sorry and I reiterate that there will be zero tolerance". Not difficult.I'm traditionally a labour supporter and am struggling with the current leadership however I was left feeling this was another one of those occasions where it was all about Neil letting everyone know he was there.
He potentially did the viewers no favours by interrupting and certainly didn't help inform me much by the way he ran the interview

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[Andy Bee]

I'm traditionally a labour supporter and am struggling with the current leadership however I was left feeling this was another one of those occasions where it was all about Neil letting everyone know he was there.
He potentially did the viewers no favours by interrupting and certainly didn't help inform me much by the way he ran the interview

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That aggressive style does nobody any favours, it's pathetic, just as Corbyn was trying to explain Neil would fire something else at him. I'm no labour supporter but I found myself shouting at my own TV willing him to STFU. I'm not watching anymore of these interviews out of fear for my own telly.

[Hibernia&Alba]

I'm traditionally a labour supporter and am struggling with the current leadership however I was left feeling this was another one of those occasions where it was all about Neil letting everyone know he was there.
He potentially did the viewers no favours by interrupting and certainly didn't help inform me much by the way he ran the interview

Sent from my SM-A750FN using Tapatalk

I agree. A half hour isn't long enough, hence shredded wheat heid kept butting in every few seconds. Make it an hour and have a proper conversation. It wasn't helpful to viewers. However, Corbyn could have succinctly made an explicit apology to any Jews who feel they've been let down by the party, whilst reiterating his lifelong commitment to anti-racism.

[Ozyhibby]

I bet in both interviews Andrew Neil did more talking than either Sturgeon or Corbyn. I think this is way below his best.
If I was prepping Swinson or Johnson I would be telling them just to let him talk as much as he likes and interrupt as much as he likes. Less time for them to make a booboo.


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[Frankhfc]

I agree. A half hour isn't long enough, hence shredded wheat heid kept butting in every few seconds. Make it an hour and have a proper conversation. It wasn't helpful to viewers. However, Corbyn could have succinctly made an explicit apology to any Jews who feel they've been let down by the party, whilst reiterating his lifelong commitment to anti-racism.

Maybe the real truth is that he doesn't feel in any way sorry at all and is the real reason for the very weak leadership shown. He could easily have shown contrition and taken charge of the issue that is currently dominating the headlines once again after the Rabbi's comments. The sooner he's gone and replaced with a moderate centre left Labour leader the better it will be for their party.

[Hibernia&Alba]

Maybe the real truth is that he doesn't feel in any way sorry at all and is the real reason for the very weak leadership shown. He could easily have shown contrition and taken charge of the issue that is currently dominating the headlines once again after the Rabbi's comments. The sooner he's gone and replaced with a moderate centre left Labour leader the better it will be for their party.

No, Corbyn himself doesn't have a bigoted bone in his body. I think that perhaps he was afraid that any apology would be used against him i.e. he was saying sorry for being a bigot, when in fact he is anything but. However, I think he could have apologised for any anti-Semitism in the party, whilst simultaneously stressing that he personally has fought to protect all minorities from prejudice, which is actually the case.

[Frankhfc]

No, Corbyn himself doesn't have a bigoted bone in his body. I think that perhaps he was afraid that any apology would be used against him i.e. he was saying sorry for being a bigot, when in fact he is anything but. However, I think he could have apologised for any anti-Semitism in the party, whilst simultaneously stressing that he personally has fought to protect all minorities from prejudice, which is actually the case.

Not knowing Corbyn personally I can only form opinions based upon his statements and actions. I'm not saying your'e wrong but his failure to take charge of the issue by not showing contrition and in not dealing with it properly leaves him wide open to the impression that he could indeed be at the least condoning it. It isn't good whatever the truth of the matter is.

[Hibernia&Alba]

Not knowing Corbyn personally I can only form opinions based upon his statements and actions. I'm not saying your'e wrong but his failure to take charge of the issue by not showing contrition and in not dealing with it properly leaves him wide open to the impression that he could indeed be at the least condoning it. It isn't good whatever the truth of the matter is.

I agree, it doesn't look good at all.

[G B Young]

I bet in both interviews Andrew Neil did more talking than either Sturgeon or Corbyn. I think this is way below his best.
If I was prepping Swinson or Johnson I would be telling them just to let him talk as much as he likes and interrupt as much as he likes. Less time for them to make a booboo.


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Indeed. Although it's not as though Neil's abrasive style should have come as a surprise to Corbyn. He should have been better prepared for it but just came off looking muddled and weak. Either badly advised or just not up to handling the questions.

[Hibernia&Alba]

Indeed. Although it's not as though Neil's abrasive style should have come as a surprise to Corbyn. He should have been better prepared for it but just came off looking muddled and weak. Either badly advised or just not up to handling the questions.

To be fair, it's impossible to answer a question when the interviewer is constantly interrupting the moment the answer begins. That will be the same for all of them, if shredded wheat heid carries on like that.

[G B Young]

That aggressive style does nobody any favours, it's pathetic, just as Corbyn was trying to explain Neil would fire something else at him. I'm no labour supporter but I found myself shouting at my own TV willing him to STFU. I'm not watching anymore of these interviews out of fear for my own telly.

Aggressive and uncomfortable as Neil's style may be he did give Corbyn ample opportunity to make some form of apology but he had clearly been briefed not to do so under any circumstances and just kept trying to trot out the same banalities he'd already expressed. Neil was right to shut it down and move on.

[Hibernia&Alba]

Aggressive and uncomfortable as Neil's style may be he did give Corbyn ample opportunity to make some form of apology but he had clearly been briefed not to do so under any circumstances and just kept trying to trot out the same banalities he'd already expressed. Neil was right to shut it down and move on.

That's a fair point. Corbyn should have stopped Neil in his tracks. Sometimes he is too passive.

[lord bunberry]

I’m sick of hearing about anti sematism in the Labour Party. The Labour Party isn’t anti semantic, there’s a tiny minority of members that may be, but the vast majority aren’t. I also question the validity of some of the claims. Criticising Israel for its policy in Palestine has now become a criticism of Jews. It’s not, but certain people want to infer that it is. The chief rabbi has crossed the line between religion and politics imo. Does anyone seriously think Jewish people will be treated differently under a labour government? The stories of Jews leaving the country if Corbyn is elected are utterly outrageous and politically motivated.

[Hibernia&Alba]

I’m sick of hearing about anti sematism in the Labour Party. The Labour Party isn’t anti semantic, there’s a tiny minority of members that may be, but the vast majority aren’t. I also question the validity of some of the claims. Criticising Israel for its policy in Palestine has now become a criticism of Jews. It’s not, but certain people want to infer that it is. The chief rabbi has crossed the line between religion and politics imo. Does anyone seriously think Jewish people will be treated differently under a labour government? The stories of Jews leaving the country if Corbyn is elected are utterly outrageous and politically motivated.

:agree:

That's the point I made earlier. I do think some are trying to demonise Corbyn because of his POLITICAL (not religious) support for Palestinian rights. It's election time and of course it's being ramped up now, but he needs to go on the front foot when affirming that Labour is overwhelmingly comprised of anti-racist party members. The party has always fought for minority rights.

And again I agree with you: of course Jews would not be under more threat under a Corbyn government, it's a ludicrous idea.

[lord bunberry]

:agree:

That's the point I made earlier. I do think some are trying to demonise Corbyn because of his POLITICAL (not religious) support for Palestinian rights. It's election time and of course it's being ramped up now, but he needs to go on the front foot when affirming that Labour is overwhelmingly comprised of anti-racist party members. The party has always fought for minority rights.

And again I agree with you: of course Jews would not be under more threat under a Corbyn government, it's a ludicrous idea.
The problem right now is that criticism of Israel is now being confalated as criticism of the Jewish faith. I’m not in anyway religious and I couldn’t care less about whichever god or belief people have, but I completely disagree with Israel and their policies in the West Bank and the Gazza strip. According to some that makes me an anti semite.

[Hibernia&Alba]

The problem right now is that criticism of Israel is now being confalated as criticism of the Jewish faith. I’m not in anyway religious and I couldn’t care less about whichever god or belief people have, but I completely disagree with Israel and their policies in the West Bank and the Gazza strip. According to some that makes me an anti semite.

It absolutely does not make you anti-Semitic, any more than criticising Saudi Arabia makes you anti-Islamic, or criticising India in Kashmir makes you anti-Hindu. This line of argument is meant to close down debate i.e. only bigots criticise Israel, as Netanyahu and the Israeli right have tried to suggest, in order to stop people highlighting his criminality. Injustice needs to be countered, regardless of religion, race or anything else; it shouldn't be used to score political points.

[Mibbes Aye]

The problem right now is that criticism of Israel is now being confalated as criticism of the Jewish faith. I’m not in anyway religious and I couldn’t care less about whichever god or belief people have, but I completely disagree with Israel and their policies in the West Bank and the Gazza strip. According to some that makes me an anti semite.

I think more people are on your wavelength than you suspect. I have no particular issue with Judaism, and I think what often gets lost in these debates is that Christianity, Judaism and Islam are all loosely linked by being Abrahamic religions, albeit ones that have taken different paths and have further splintered into a multitude of sects. And some would argue that it is a falsehood to call them Abrahamic, but it sort of works after a fashion. Certainly they have more commonality than with Shinto or Hinduism!

I also think many people are repelled by the industrialised violence that the Israeli state unleashes into the occupied territories and beyond. There have been decades-long accusations that it is essentially a test ground for a lot of new American military tech, which is a horrible thought. That is notwithstanding the violence unleashed the otherway but for those of us old enough to remember apartheid it is hard not to see parallels, or actually worse.

But, and this is a big but, the history of the Labour movement, and this goes back 150 years, has always contained a far-left element who are happy to talk about ‘Zionist world governments’, happy to publish cartoons of hook-nosed men in fur coats, counting dollar bills while treading on emaciated workers. That lingers on in the far left and seems to have translated itself into conflating reasonable criticism of Israel with the tolerance of anti-Semitism.

There is more than one example, but take Luciana Berger, who quit the Labour Party. Three men have been convicted and given jail sentences for threatening her with violence based on her being Jewish, but she faced a no confidence motion in her own constituency party for being a ‘disruptive Zionist’. The support from the leadership of the party was non-existent.

And as Corbyn’s answers in the Neill interview showed, he is failing to do even the minimum he promised to deal with anti-Semitism. He is an incompetent fool though. It is those manipulating him who are the real concern.

[lord bunberry]

It absolutely does not make you anti-Semitic, any more than criticising Saudi Arabia makes you anti-Islamic, or criticising India in Kashmir makes you anti-Hindu. This line of argument is meant to close down debate i.e. only bigots criticise Israel, as Netanyahu and the Israeli right have tried to suggest, in order to stop people highlighting his criminality. Injustice needs to be countered, regardless of religion, race or anything else; it shouldn't be used to score political points.
That’s the point I was trying to make. It’s really frustrating that politics and religion is once again being mixed, it’s like stepping back three or four centuries. I look at a situation from a human point of view, I can be reduced to tears watching innocent children suffering in a war torn area. At no point in that am I thinking about their religion.

[lord bunberry]

I think more people are on your wavelength than you suspect. I have no particular issue with Judaism, and I think what often gets lost in these debates is that Christianity, Judaism and Islam are all loosely linked by being Abrahamic religions, albeit ones that have taken different paths and have further splintered into a multitude of sects. And some would argue that it is a falsehood to call them Abrahamic, but it sort of works after a fashion. Certainly they have more commonality than with Shinto or Hinduism!

I also think many people are repelled by the industrialised violence that the Israeli state unleashes into the occupied territories and beyond. There have been decades-long accusations that it is essentially a test ground for a lot of new American military tech, which is a horrible thought. That is notwithstanding the violence unleashed the otherway but for those of us old enough to remember apartheid it is hard not to see parallels, or actually worse.

But, and this is a big but, the history of the Labour movement, and this goes back 150 years, has always contained a far-left element who are happy to talk about ‘Zionist world governments’, happy to publish cartoons of hook-nosed men in fur coats, counting dollar bills while treading on emaciated workers. That lingers on in the far left and seems to have translated itself into conflating reasonable criticism of Israel with the tolerance of anti-Semitism.

There is more than one example, but take Luciana Berger, who quit the Labour Party. Three men have been convicted and given jail sentences for threatening her with violence based on her being Jewish, but she faced a no confidence motion in her own constituency party for being a ‘disruptive Zionist’. The support from the leadership of the party was non-existent.

And as Corbyn’s answers in the Neill interview showed, he is failing to do even the minimum he promised to deal with anti-Semitism. He is an incompetent fool though. It is those manipulating him who are the real concern.
To be fair they launched a religious manifesto today. As far as I’m aware they’re the first party to do so. I really don’t know where to go now, I genuinely wanted to make a witty comment on it, but I’m struggling. Basically we have a manifesto designed for people that believe in something that doesn’t exist, it’s very similar to the greens.

[Hibernia&Alba]

To be fair they launched a religious manifesto today. As far as I’m aware they’re the first party to do so. I really don’t know where to go now, I genuinely wanted to make a witty comment on it, but I’m struggling. Basically we have a manifesto designed for people that believe in something that doesn’t exist, it’s very similar to the greens.

In 1945, after six years of war, the Labour manifesto proposed a National Health Service which didn't exist, a welfare state which didn't exist, a huge expansion of council houses which didn't exist, publicly owned coal, water and electricity which didn't exist. You need to decide what type of society you want to exist. If we want to make it happen, we can; only cynicism and selfishness hold us back. It can be done.

[Mibbes Aye]

In 1945, after six years of war, the Labour manifesto proposed a National Health Service which didn't exist, a welfare state which didn't exist, a huge expansion of council houses which didn't exist, publicly owned coal, water and electricity which didn't exist. You need to decide what type of society you want to exist. If we want to make it happen, we can; only cynicism and selfishness hold us back. It can be done.

I might be a Labour Party member but even I would have to acknowledge that the welfare state was primarily dreamed up by a Liberal politician. Planning for the NHS started under a Conservative Health Minister during the war. It was tweaked by Bevan when Labour got elected but still allowed GPs to operate as essentially private contractors, something they have clung onto ever since.

Back in those days it seemed there must have been consensus about what was needed and maybe just shades of opinion about how it was implemented. I guess that lasted until the late 1970s.

[Hibernia&Alba]

I might be a Labour Party member but even I would have to acknowledge that the welfare state was primarily dreamed up by a Liberal politician. Planning for the NHS started under a Conservative Health Minister during the war. It was tweaked by Bevan when Labour got elected but still allowed GPs to operate as essentially private contractors, something they have clung onto ever since.

Back in those days it seemed there must have been consensus about what was needed and maybe just shades of opinion about how it was implemented. I guess that lasted until the late 1970s.

Yes, the welfare state was designed by Beveridge, but the Tories voted against it in 1945, and they voted against the NHS many times. It was Aneurin Bevan, within the Labour government who made sure it was created. Yes, there was enormous opposition by the BMA, but he made it happen, against the interests of private medicine, the Tories and their cheerleaders in the right wing press. Now the BMA is amongst the staunchest defenders of the NHS. If all that was possible after six years of total war, imagine what we could do now, with the will to make it happen. Don't allow forty years of Thatcherism to narrow your horizons and dishearten you; we can create a better society, more so than ever before, if we wish it.

[lord bunberry]

In 1945, after six years of war, the Labour manifesto proposed a National Health Service which didn't exist, a welfare state which didn't exist, a huge expansion of council houses which didn't exist, publicly owned coal, water and electricity which didn't exist. You need to decide what type of society you want to exist. If we want to make it happen, we can; only cynicism and selfishness hold us back. It can be done.
My friend you are preaching to the converted. The question is how do we intact these policies. Under the current system with a hostile media its highly unlikely. I was born in 1975 and all I’ve known is that socialism is akin to communism. It’s nonsense there’s no reason that working class people shouldn’t have a say in their future.

[weecounty hibby]

I’m sick of hearing about anti sematism in the Labour Party. The Labour Party isn’t anti semantic, there’s a tiny minority of members that may be, but the vast majority aren’t. I also question the validity of some of the claims. Criticising Israel for its policy in Palestine has now become a criticism of Jews. It’s not, but certain people want to infer that it is. The chief rabbi has crossed the line between religion and politics imo. Does anyone seriously think Jewish people will be treated differently under a labour government? The stories of Jews leaving the country if Corbyn is elected are utterly outrageous and politically motivated.

100% agree with what you say there. It's like saying that criticism of Italy is criticism of Catholicism. Israel as a country do some dispicable things and calling that out should not he seen as anti Semitic

[Hibernia&Alba]

My friend you are preaching to the converted. The question is how do we intact these policies. Under the current system with a hostile media its highly unlikely. I was born in 1975 and all I’ve known is that socialism is akin to communism. It’s nonsense there’s no reason that working class people shouldn’t have a say in their future.

Indeed. As I said above, don't let Thatcherite cynicism and neoliberalism dictate what is possible; this country has demonstrated before what is possible when we commit to progress. If it was possible in 1945, it sure as hell is now.

[Mibbes Aye]

Yes, the welfare state was designed by Beveridge, but the Tories voted against it in 1945, and they voted against the NHS many times. It was Aneurin Bevan, within the Labour government who made sure it was created. Yes, there was enormous opposition by the BMA, but he made it happen, against the interests of private medicine, the Tories and their cheerleaders in the right wing press. Now the BMA is amongst the staunchest defenders of the NHS. If all that was possible after six years of total war, imagine what we could do now, with the will to make it happen. Don't allow forty years of Thatcherism to narrow your horizons and dishearten you; we can create a better society, more so than ever before, if we wish it.

To be accurate, the Tories in 1945 voted against a ‘national’ health service and wanted health care, free at the point of use, to sit at local authority level. Funnily enough, that doesn’t sound too different from the SNP’s policy of Health and Social Care integration that was implemented in 2016. The wheel turns.....

As for Bevan and the BMA, the medics must have been rubbing their hands with glee. They got to retain their independent status, continues to be able to charge for doing any additional work, and in this century got lauded as experts who should make decisions about commissioning care services. I have never done a medical degree but I don’t suspect it covers the finer points around commissioning, procurement and contract management of social care services. Private medicine exists in this country, not in those nice BUPA hospitals but in almost every GP surgery up and down the land.

[Hibernia&Alba]

To be accurate, the Tories in 1945 voted against a ‘national’ health service and wanted health care, free at the point of use, to sit at local authority level. Funnily enough, that doesn’t sound too different from the SNP’s policy of Health and Social Care integration that was implemented in 2016. The wheel turns.....

As for Bevan and the BMA, the medics must have been rubbing their hands with glee. They got to retain their independent status, continues to be able to charge for doing any additional work, and in this century got lauded as experts who should make decisions about commissioning care services. I have never done a medical degree but I don’t suspect it covers the finer points around commissioning, procurement and contract management of social care services. Private medicine exists in this country, not in those nice BUPA hospitals but in almost every GP surgery up and down the land.

No, the Tories opposed what they defined as an 'anti-choice' system in 1945-47 i.e. non-profit system. Sound familiar? They consistently voted against 'socialised medicine', but, once the NHS was established and seeing its popularity, they adopted support, just as they have done many Labour policies since since e.g. welfare state, minimum wage, tax credits etc etc. Then they try to destroy them from within. Now, I don't want a choice of hospital (it isn't a hotel) but I just want to know my nearest hospital is as good as it can be, and I believe this increases, and not diminishes, my freedom. As for outsourcing NHS services to private companies, that was a Tory policy of the 1980s which has continued since and which must be rolled back, in my opinion. Public service and not private profit must be the cornerstone of all health care provision, in my opinion. Public welfare must override all else.

[Mibbes Aye]

No, the Tories opposed what they defined as an 'anti-choice' in 1945-47 i.e. non-profit system. Sound familiar? They consistently voted against 'socialised medicine', but, once the NHS was established and seeing its popularity, the adopted support, just as they have done many Labour policies since since e.g. welfare state, minimum wage, tax credits etc etc. Then they try to destroy them from within. Now, I don't want a choice of hospital (it isn't a hotel) but I just want to know my nearest hospital is as good as it can be, and I believe this increases, and not diminishes, my freedom. As for outsourcing NHS services to private companies, that was a Tory policy of the 1980s which has continued since and which must be rolled back, in my opinion. Public service and private profit must be the cornerstone of all health care provision, in my opinion. Public welfare must override all else.

It was a Tory minister who introduced a White Paper in 1944 calling for a free at the point of use health service. Then the war ended the next year, Labour came into power, they adopted the White Paper and changed it to allow for nationalisation. Tories being Tories didn’t want a behemoth, they wanted it localised and voluntary sector-led. Both parties in their own ways were mistaken as it ultimately led to the state we are in now!

I am all too clear why some can’t see beyond a rabid anti-Tory mantra (not accusing you), but in the war years it wasn’t necessarily as ideological as it became with the rise of neoliberalism. Tories were still xxxxx :greengrin but there was a broad consensus, with fractional diversity. Even as late as the seventies, you had Reg Prentice who had been a Labour Education Secretary, switching to the Tories and becoming an MoS at the DHSS

[Hibernia&Alba]

It was a Tory minister who introduced a White Paper in 1944 calling for a free at the point of use health service. Then the war ended the next year, Labour came into power, they adopted the White Paper and changed it to allow for nationalisation. Tories being Tories didn’t want a behemoth, they wanted it localised and voluntary sector-led. Both parties in their own ways were mistaken as it ultimately led to the state we are in now!

I am all too clear why some can’t see beyond a rabid anti-Tory mantra (not accusing you), but in the war years it wasn’t necessarily as ideological as it became with the rise of neoliberalism. Tories were still xxxxx :greengrin but there was a broad consensus, with fractional diversity. Even as late as the seventies, you had Reg Prentice who had been a Labour Education Secretary, switching to the Tories and becoming an MoS at the DHSS

In 1944 it was a government of national unity during the war, and the Tories in that coalition fought against any form of system which was free to all at the point of delivery, including Churchill. They pushed for a more inclusive private insurance system. In 1945 they opposed the creation of the NHS and formed an alliance of opposition with the BMA, though thankfully the NHS won through. I entirely disagree with your premise that both parties were mistaken. I think the NHS is the single greatest thing this country has ever done; to me it represents the best we can be, and it fills me with pride. Even through Conservative governments have tried to destroy it numerous times in the name of 'reform', it continues, thanks to the dedication of the staff and public support. We must protect it for future generations, for so many other great public services have been eroded or destroyed.

By the way, you can accuse me of a rabid anti-Tory mantra. After all, if the cap fits....:greengrin

[Mibbes Aye]

In 1944 it was a government of national unity during the war, and the Tories in that coalition fought against any form of system which was free to all at the point of delivery, including Churchill. They pushed for a more inclusive private insurance system. In 1945 they opposed the creation of the NHS and formed an alliance of opposition with the BMA, though thankfully the NHS won through. I entirely disagree with your premise that both parties were mistaken. I think the NHS is the single greatest thing this country has ever done; to me it represents the best we can be, and it fills me with pride. Even through Conservative governments have tried to destroy it numerous times in the name of 'reform', it continues, thanks to the dedication of the staff and public support. We must protect it for future generations, as so many other great public services have been eroded or destroyed.

By the way, you can accuse me of a rabid anti-Tory mantra. After all, if the cap fits....:greengrin

I think we are at cross purposes :greengrin

It was really a Conservative government during the war regardless of how it was titled. They held the PMship and most of the great offices of state and it wasn’t like Labour couldn’t not be involved to support the war effort.

The plan for free at the point of use was drawn up by the then Conservative Health Minister, Willink, based on Beveridge. Bevan made it better, I suspect in both our opinions.

I will continue to think both parties were mistaken. The Tories should have pushed harder for more localism, they were proven right on that. Bevan should have pushed harder on nationalising the GPS, instead of allowing them to become private sector arbiters of how our health system works.

[Hibernia&Alba]

I think we are at cross purposes :greengrin

It was really a Conservative government during the war regardless of how it was titled. They held the PMship and most of the great offices of state and it wasn’t like Labour couldn’t not be involved to support the war effort.

The plan for free at the point of use was drawn up by the then Conservative Health Minister, Willink, based on Beveridge. Bevan made it better, I suspect in both our opinions.

I will continue to think both parties were mistaken. The Tories should have pushed harder for more localism, they were proven right on that. Bevan should have pushed harder on nationalising the GPS, instead of allowing them to become private sector arbiters of how our health system works.

During the war Attlee was deputy PM, and Ernest Bevin, Morrison and Cripps were all in the cabinet. The Conservative Party did not support universal health care for all, free at the point of delivery. They wanted competition and 'choice', as their voting record during the Attlee government of 1945-51 proves. Had the won the 1945 election, the NHS would not exist and there would have been a variant of private insurance.

[Future17]

Without stirring the brown stuff, I can say from recent experience how easy it would be to come by polling cards, especially if money changes hands.

Just take a look at the number of people caring for others ar home. It would be very easy to lift their polling card

When you consider that majorities can be so low even 50 cards could be gold dust.

There's no value in polling cards. You don't need one in order to vote.

[heretoday]

Corbyn should have jumped on this anti-Semitism nonsense early doors. He should be hammering home the point that criticising Israel for being nasty to the Palestinians is nothing to do with anti-Semitism.
Actually, his failure to do these things does raise questions about his ability as a leader so maybe the whole farrago will prove cathartic for the Party.

[G B Young]

Corbyn should have jumped on this anti-Semitism nonsense early doors. He should be hammering home the point that criticising Israel for being nasty to the Palestinians is nothing to do with anti-Semitism.
Actually, his failure to do these things does raise questions about his ability as a leader so maybe the whole farrago will prove cathartic for the Party.

He's certainly taking a predictable pasting on the front pages this morning:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-50567551


Conceding that some lower earners could actually pay more tax under Labour kind of compounded a grim day on the campaign trail for Corbyn:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-50567551

[heretoday]

Actually, I'll stick my neck out and say the vast majority of the voting public couldn't give a monkey's about anti-Semitism in the Labour Party or anywhere else. The whole thing is part of the game of political whiff-whaff played out in TV studios.

[Ozyhibby]

Actually, I'll stick my neck out and say the vast majority of the voting public couldn't give a monkey's about anti-Semitism in the Labour Party or anywhere else. The whole thing is part of the game of political whiff-whaff played out in TV studios.

On its own I agree, it’s not people’s number 1 concern but it helps paint a picture of incompetence that it’s not been dealt with. Are they really up to building a super fast broadband network and run a railway if they can’t sort what should have been a really simple issue within the party?


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[G B Young]

Actually, I'll stick my neck out and say the vast majority of the voting public couldn't give a monkey's about anti-Semitism in the Labour Party or anywhere else. The whole thing is part of the game of political whiff-whaff played out in TV studios.

Do you mean most of the voting public don't see it as a key electoral issue or that most of the voting public don't care about racism?

[Ozyhibby]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191127/1354e1fc371d920e12a2400f3033c47b.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191127/2deb3c844b622633766c6e5ae4e8138e.jpg


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[One Day Soon]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191127/1354e1fc371d920e12a2400f3033c47b.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191127/2deb3c844b622633766c6e5ae4e8138e.jpg


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What is the source of this document?

[Ozyhibby]

Corbyn on TV handing out inredacted documents showing that the NHS would be included in trade talks with US. Dramatic stuff.


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[SHODAN]

Corbyn on TV handing out inredacted documents showing that the NHS would be included in trade talks with US. Dramatic stuff.


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I look forward to this being all over the press, especially the "impartial" ones like the BBC.

Wait, nope, the BBC front page has (ironically) the SNP manifesto as the headline. Maybe tomorrow they'll claim Johnson handed out documents about Corbyn selling off the NHS instead as their latest "mistake".

[Ozyhibby]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191127/4f36052dff8716fc81661ba8b4d080c0.png


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[Sylar]

Corbyn on TV handing out inredacted documents showing that the NHS would be included in trade talks with US. Dramatic stuff.


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Currently watching him dissecting these documents live on Twitter. I'm not a fan of Corbyn, and I'm not a Labour man, but he's utterly hammering the Conservatives using their own documents.

[Ozyhibby]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191127/2cfb805dccba82cea09db7f379dd1719.png


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[marinello59]

I look forward to this being all over the press, especially the "impartial" ones like the BBC.

Wait, nope, the BBC front page has (ironically) the SNP manifesto as the headline. Maybe tomorrow they'll claim Johnson handed out documents about Corbyn selling off the NHS instead as their latest "mistake".

From the front page of the BBC website. Obviously they are hiding this stuff in full view again .

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50572454

[lapsedhibee]

From the front page of the BBC website. Obviously they are hiding this stuff in full view again .

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50572454

Including the usual Kuenssberg pro-Tory angle, which is certainly never hidden.

[SHODAN]

From the front page of the BBC website. Obviously they are hiding this stuff in full view again .

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50572454

It's on the front page but it isn't the top story was what I was implying.

[Ozyhibby]

To be fair, it’s only just been released by Labour so all media outlets will be playing catch up trying to read it. It’s a pretty big leak right in the middle of an election campaign.


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[Ozyhibby]

It will take time to find all the little gems in it.
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191127/2f79c74206f0e34a8fbcfab74a82012f.jpg


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[One Day Soon]

It will take time to find all the little gems in it.
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191127/2f79c74206f0e34a8fbcfab74a82012f.jpg


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I'm not clear what you think this means.

[Ozyhibby]

I'm not clear what you think this means.

It means the Americans will be pushing us towards no deal as it helps them.


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[JeMeSouviens]

I'm not clear what you think this means.

If the UK has no commitment to alignment with EU standards then everything can be dropped to the lowest common denominator. The Brexiteers' wet dream.

[One Day Soon]

It means the Americans will be pushing us towards no deal as it helps them.


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If the UK has no commitment to alignment with EU standards then everything can be dropped to the lowest common denominator. The Brexiteers' wet dream.


Yes but neither of these things means that the NHS is up for grabs. It may be up for grabs - may be, though I doubt that very much - but this isn't evidence of it. Not even the current mentalist version of the Tories is politically suicidal enough to attempt to dismantle the NHS.

These are minutes summarising the negotiating position being taken by the US side.

[lapsedhibee]

Truss's response: Corbyn is lying about what's in the documents because he's an anti-Semite.

[JeMeSouviens]

Yes but neither of these things means that the NHS is up for grabs. It may be up for grabs - may be, though I doubt that very much - but this isn't evidence of it. Not even the current mentalist version of the Tories is politically suicidal enough to attempt to dismantle the NHS.

These are minutes summarising the negotiating position being taken by the US side.

The NHS is just a political soundbite hook to hang it on (although US healthcare providers will want in to the UK where they can get in), the implications of a US-UK deal are much more wide ranging. The UK side will be desperate for a trade "win" and dwarfed by the economic might of the US. It will cause a degradation of rights and protections for consumers, workers, the environment, etc etc across the board in all sorts of ways. ****** great if you're a small state, low regulation, worker squeezing Tory ******* though. :rolleyes:

[The Harp Awakes]

Including the usual Kuenssberg pro-Tory angle, which is certainly never hidden.

She's not even trying to hide her bias now. The only thing she hates more than the Labour Party is the SNP.

[Ozyhibby]

Yes but neither of these things means that the NHS is up for grabs. It may be up for grabs - may be, though I doubt that very much - but this isn't evidence of it. Not even the current mentalist version of the Tories is politically suicidal enough to attempt to dismantle the NHS.

These are minutes summarising the negotiating position being taken by the US side.

If it was not on the table then it would say so on page 1 of this document. The fact that these documents cover 6 meetings and they are still talking about the NHS means it is most definitely not off the table.


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[G B Young]

Including the usual Kuenssberg pro-Tory angle, which is certainly never hidden.

In what way was it biased to ask whether the documents actually provide any evidence that the governement has offered the NHS for sale as part of a trade deal? The fact Corbyn was unable to answer that inidcates that while there might have been all sorts of issues discussed around trade post-Brexit with the US (and the documents apparently emcompass a great deal more than just the NHS) there not any evidence of such an agreement.

Not surprising Labour are trying to steer the conversation back in this direction after yesterday's fiasco mind you.

[G B Young]

I watched a bit of the SNP manifesto launch. What struck me was how scathing she is about Corbyn and described choosing between him and Johnson as as choice between "the devil and the deep blue sea". If she regards him with such disdain why keep pursuing the possibility of supporting Labour in government? Would she really trust him to back down on independence in the unlikely event he was to become PM?

[One Day Soon]

Quoted post removed.

That post is an absolute disgrace.

[Ozyhibby]

In what way was it biased to ask whether the documents actually provide any evidence that the governement has offered the NHS for sale as part of a trade deal? The fact Corbyn was unable to answer that inidcates that while there might have been all sorts of issues discussed around trade post-Brexit with the US (and the documents apparently emcompass a great deal more than just the NHS) there not any evidence of such an agreement.

Not surprising Labour are trying to steer the conversation back in this direction after yesterday's fiasco mind you.

Of course there is no agreement but it is being discussed. That can’t be denied. The NHS is on the table in our trade deal with the US.


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[Ozyhibby]

Quoted post removed.

Why are Jewish brits responsible for Israel?


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[One Day Soon]

Of course there is no agreement but it is being discussed. That can’t be denied. The NHS is on the table in our trade deal with the US.


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Really? Show some evidence of that then.

[One Day Soon]

Why are Jewish brits responsible for Israel?


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Indeed. Not even Israeli Jews are responsible for the actions of the state of Israel.

[Ozyhibby]

Really? Show some evidence of that then.

The evidence is there in the documents. It is being discussed by the negotiating teams. If something is off the table then you refuse to discuss it. They haven’t.


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[One Day Soon]

The evidence is there in the documents. It is being discussed by the negotiating teams. If something is off the table then you refuse to discuss it. They haven’t.


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I really don't think it is there in the documents. If it was then presumably it would be available far and wide on social media and elsewhere?

[lapsedhibee]

In what way was it biased to ask whether the documents actually provide any evidence that the governement has offered the NHS for sale as part of a trade deal?

"Jeremy Corbyn doesn't provide evidence ministers have agreed the health service should be part of a trade deal with US."

Did he claim that they had? Perhaps they were all simply discussing Uganda at the six meetings. :dunno:

[Ozyhibby]

Quoted post removed.

How do you know that Jewish people are not among those who are protesting Isreal? Do you maybe want them to wear a badge so you can identify them?
Anti-semitism seems to be tolerated here as much as in the Labour Party these days.[emoji849]


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[marinello59]

It's on the front page but it isn't the top story was what I was implying.

No, the SNP Manifesto launch was. Given that the story had only just broken that seems fair enough.

[HNA12]

How do you know that Jewish people are not among those who are protesting Isreal? Do you maybe want them to wear a badge so you can identify them?
Anti-semitism seems to be tolerated here as much as in the Labour Party these days.[emoji849]


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When somebody makes clearly anti-semitic remarks they will not be tolerated.

[HiBremian]

Because they do nothing to protest at the most brutal, racist and cowardly nation in the world. I am not South African and have never been there but it did not stop me protesting about what was going on there.**** me, mate. Been out on the streets, been producing documentary photography, been standing shoulder to shoulder with Palestinians. I just don't broadcast my Jewish background. Like thousands of others. You really need to sort out your criticism of folks that happen to be Jewish. The chief rabbi is doing what he's doing because he's a tory. Never forget.

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[Ozyhibby]

When somebody makes clearly anti-semitic remarks they will not be tolerated.

[emoji122]


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[G B Young]

The evidence is there in the documents. It is being discussed by the negotiating teams. If something is off the table then you refuse to discuss it. They haven’t.


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As somebody else has pointed out these documents are effectively minutes of what the Americans have thrown into the mix. That doesn't mean what they might want is actually 'on the table'. Johnson (who can also, as far as I can see, also point to the fact these meetings took place before he was PM) can (and already has) said the NHS won't be on the table.

Labour will, understandably, do their damnedest to spin this as the NHS being up for sale but unless some concrete evidence of that comes to light it's primarily a scare tactic rather than a bombshell revelation. It's not as though these meetings were held in secret.

[Ozyhibby]

As somebody else has pointed out these documents are effectively minutes of what the Americans have thrown into the mix. That doesn't mean what they might want is actually 'on the table'. Johnson (who can also, as far as I can see, also point to the fact these meetings took place before he was PM) can (and already has) said the NHS won't be on the table.

Labour will, understandably, do their damnedest to spin this as the NHS being up for sale but unless some concrete evidence of that comes to light it's primarily a scare tactic rather than a bombshell revelation. It's not as though these meetings were held in secret.

6 meetings and not once did anyone from the UK negotiating team take the NHS off the table. It’s still there. It’s up for negotiation.


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[G B Young]

"Jeremy Corbyn doesn't provide evidence ministers have agreed the health service should be part of a trade deal with US."

Did he claim that they had? Perhaps they were all simply discussing Uganda at the six meetings. :dunno:

Labour explicitly state on their Facebook page that 'Boris Johnson has put the NHS up for sale'. It's quite a stretch to come to that conclusion based on today's 'evidence'.

[G B Young]

'The nice guy narrative is now officially dead':

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/jeremy-corbyn-interview-andrew-neil-general-election-labour-antisemitism-a9219226.html (https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/jeremy-corbyn-interview-andrew-neil-general-election-labour-antisemitism-a9219226.html)

[Hibernia&Alba]

'The nice guy narrative is now officially dead':

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/jeremy-corbyn-interview-andrew-neil-general-election-labour-antisemitism-a9219226.html (https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/jeremy-corbyn-interview-andrew-neil-general-election-labour-antisemitism-a9219226.html)

He's being crucified for his performance. It was bad, no question, but Neil simply refused to allow Corbyn to say anything beyond a soundbite answer. Neil ruined the interview with his constant interruptions. He didn't listen to any of the replies but merely jumped in immediately.

[Mibbes Aye]

During the war Attlee was deputy PM, and Ernest Bevin, Morrison and Cripps were all in the cabinet. The Conservative Party did not support universal health care for all, free at the point of delivery. They wanted competition and 'choice', as their voting record during the Attlee government of 1945-51 proves. Had the won the 1945 election, the NHS would not exist and there would have been a variant of private insurance.

Have you read the 1944 White Paper?

[JeMeSouviens]

The BBC's Adam Fleming has the following highlight from the doc:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EKY1STTWoAApSGY?format=jpg&name=900x900


SPS is basically agricultural standards (sanitary and phytosanitary measures). Labour should be bigging up this stuff as well as the NHS imo.

[Hibernia&Alba]

Have you read the 1944 White Paper?

That wasn't a Conservative government but a national coalition during war. The Conservative Party voted against the creation of the NHS between 1945 and 1947 and supported the BMA in their initial opposition. The Tories have opposed almost every piece of post war progressive legislation, from the NHS and the welfare state to a minimum wage and Working Families Tax Credits. They have never been ideologically supportive of the system. When Thatcher was talked out of privatising the NHS, she starved it of funds and created the internal market, in an attempt to destroy it from within. They've never changed. Let's not re-write history that the Tories supported the great reforms of the Attlee government; they did not. This notion of a post war consensus isn't true; the two main parties were miles apart in their vision of society.

[heretoday]

Do you mean most of the voting public don't see it as a key electoral issue or that most of the voting public don't care about racism?

I don't see it as being a key electoral issue except in the sense that it reflects badly on Corbyn for not having sorted it out years ago.

As to the great British public and their attitudes in general. your guess is as good as mine but the Brexit referendum result would suggest a certain antipathy towards foreigners among large sections of the community - mostly in England I would hazard.

Whether that indicates a tolerance of racism I really don't know.

[Hibernia&Alba]

Is Johnson refusing to appear with Neil?

[JeMeSouviens]

Is Johnson refusing to appear with Neil?

Not refusing (yet), the BBC are in discussions with his team.

Pol ed of LBC, Theo Usherwood tweets:


Labour source tells me BBC informed them Boris Johnson would do an Andrew Neil interview next week.

Turns out no such agreement had been reached.

If Tory leader isn't subjected to same scrutiny as Mr Corbyn, but his team was told he would be, that's a problem for the BBC.

[lapsedhibee]

Not refusing (yet), the BBC are in discussions with his team.


That's going to be the most predictable interview in TV history.

"Well Andrew we've just got to get Brexit done"
"But Mr Johnson I'm not asking you about Brexit"
"Yes but Andrew we've got to get Brexit done"
"But I'm not asking you about Brexit"
"But the most important thing is that we get Brexit done"
"Yes you've said that a number of times, we get that, but what I'm asking you is … "

repeat for 30 mins.

[G B Young]

I really don't think it is there in the documents. If it was then presumably it would be available far and wide on social media and elsewhere?

As has been pointed out these documents have been available to anyone online for more than two months so if there had been more to 'expose' than Channel 4 did about these meetings it seems pretty obvious somebody would have done so by now. For Labour to claim they've 'unearthed' some sort of shattering new evidence smacks of desperation.

[Jack Hackett]

As has been pointed out these documents have been available to anyone online for more than two months so if there had been more to 'expose' than Channel 4 did about these meetings it seems pretty obvious somebody would have done so by now. For Labour to claim they've 'unearthed' some sort of shattering new evidence smacks of desperation.

Other than the knowledge of the power of social media to twist public opinion to their own agenda, I think most politicians are totally ignorant of what materials are available on the internet

[Hibernia&Alba]

What's happened to tonight's scheduled interview?

[Bristolhibby]

Rumour Dominic Cummings has resigned.

J

[Jack Hackett]

What's happened to tonight's scheduled interview?

https://twitter.com/hashtag/AndrewNeilInterview?src=tren

[Callum_62]

https://twitter.com/hashtag/AndrewNeilInterview?src=trenThat's a scandal if he doenst front up

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[Ozyhibby]

Big poll out tonight which should show if tactical voting is likely to be a big factor. Huge data sample (200k I think). Should show individual constituencies. Out at 10pm.


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[Glory Lurker]

Big poll out tonight which should show if tactical voting is likely to be a big factor. Huge data sample (200k I think). Should show individual constituencies. Out at 10pm.


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:hyper and :worried:

Where are you getting that from?

[JeMeSouviens]

Our latest #GE2019* Westminster voting intention on behalf of the @Telegraph

CON 41% (-1)
LAB 34% (+2)
LD 13% (+1)
BRX 5% (-)
Other 7% (-)

25th - 26th Nov

(changes from Savanta ComRes/Sunday Express poll, Nov 23rd)

bit.ly/2Djw3VT

[JeMeSouviens]

:hyper and :worried:

Where are you getting that from?

It’s the yougov mrp, best performing poll model in 2017.

[Ozyhibby]

It’s the yougov mrp, best performing poll model in 2017.

Early leaks to journalists are supposedly saying a Tory majority of about 55 seats.


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[GlesgaeHibby]

Early leaks to journalists are supposedly saying a Tory majority of about 55 seats.


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How utterly depressing.

[wpj]

Is Johnston jewish?

Is that relevant?

[Mibbes Aye]

Big poll out tonight which should show if tactical voting is likely to be a big factor. Huge data sample (200k I think). Should show individual constituencies. Out at 10pm.


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It will be interesting but some caveats apply.

That sample is still only 300 people per constituency. I do the online YouGov polls and I am not sure that they are as sophisticated enough to tackle individual constituencies based on what I get asked, though they may be sampling in a different way. PopulusLive seem to be more forensic, though they are pretty ruthless in screening demographically, and I am not convinced that doesn’t skew things either.

Saying all that I have a relatively limited understanding of survey methods and statistical analysis. I think the results might point to some very broad trends but I would be hesitant of reading too much into them this far out from Election Day.

[Ozyhibby]

It will be interesting but some caveats apply.

That sample is still only 300 people per constituency. I do the online YouGov polls and I am not sure that they are as sophisticated enough to tackle individual constituencies based on what I get asked, though they may be sampling in a different way. PopulusLive seem to be more forensic, though they are pretty ruthless in screening demographically, and I am not convinced that doesn’t skew things either.

Saying all that I have a relatively limited understanding of survey methods and statistical analysis. I think the results might point to some very broad trends but I would be hesitant of reading too much into them this far out from Election Day.

Especially this week when Labour have offered the waspi women £20k each. That would be enough to buy a lot of votes. Polls do appear to be narrowing and the data from this poll will be about a week old.


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[GlesgaeHibby]

Especially this week when Labour have offered the waspi women £20k each. That would be enough to buy a lot of votes. Polls do appear to be narrowing and the data from this poll will be about a week old.


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Seemingly it came out a week before the election last time round. Hopefully polls continue to narrow over the next two weeks.

[Ozyhibby]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191127/2282a9acd89ad3b2a837dd77787449a0.jpg


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[Mon Dieu4]

Especially this week when Labour have offered the waspi women £20k each. That would be enough to buy a lot of votes. Polls do appear to be narrowing and the data from this poll will be about a week old.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

My Mum is of that age bracket and missed out by a couple of months, she pished herself laughing at claim they will be able to do this and she is politically fairly neutral

[CloudSquall]

#GE2019
(https://twitter.com/hashtag/GE2019?src=hashtag_click)
seat projection, MRP model:

CON: 359
LAB: 211
SNP: 43
LDEM: 13

via @YouGov (https://twitter.com/YouGov)


Tom Kyte...

[Ozyhibby]

Decent result for snp.


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[Glory Lurker]

#GE2019
(https://twitter.com/hashtag/GE2019?src=hashtag_click)
seat projection, MRP model:

CON: 359
LAB: 211
SNP: 43
LDEM: 13

via @YouGov (https://twitter.com/YouGov)


Tom Kyte...

That would involve more than an acceptable amount of Tory seats surviving in Scotland (acceptable amount is of course zero!).

[GlesgaeHibby]

Decent result for snp.


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Only two Scottish Tories losing seats in the model. Hopefully they can be wiped out up here again come election day.

[allmodcons]

Decent result for snp.


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What good will it do if the Tory majority is as big as is being projected. Basically, Scotland is ****ed. Pulled out of Europe against her will and being dictated to by yet
another Tory **** for christ knows how long. I am in a fortunate position financially but genuinely worry for those who struggle to make ends meet. This bunch of right wing *******s care for nobody but themselves.

[Ozyhibby]

The you gov poll is a bit out of date and shows a Tory lead of 11 points. More recent polls this week show that lead down to about 7pts so it’s possible that this majority won’t happen.


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[CloudSquall]

https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2019/

Can check your constituency here, Edinburgh West is quite the knife edge.

[Ozyhibby]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191127/3db21f7afd8b14c6503aaefc7c6f7573.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191127/c9c5be646bfb620e8b6af4278585c445.jpg


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[Ozyhibby]

https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2019/

Can check your constituency here, Edinburgh West is quite the knife edge.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191127/fff36be9f4f5bdfddb17de884173dbb8.jpg



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[Mon Dieu4]

https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2019/

Can check your constituency here, Edinburgh West is quite the knife edge.

Can't possibly just be me that thinks thats the worst map of Scotland ever created :faf:

[Frankhfc]

What's happened to the Greens? Only one seat? I'm very surprised at that.

[CloudSquall]

Jo Swinson has a 5% lead, she could be up for a Portillo moment (again).

[Mibbes Aye]

Especially this week when Labour have offered the waspi women £20k each. That would be enough to buy a lot of votes. Polls do appear to be narrowing and the data from this poll will be about a week old.


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Yeah and it turns out to be closer to 150 people per constituency. Like you say it isn’t current data and based on a question of who you would vote for ‘today’.

Much room for twists and turns and certainly a good few news cycles to accommodate gamechanging moments.

[Colr]

Only 3 changes in London and in Corbyn central Labour increasing their vote. No Libdem breakthrough as their vote seems to have collapsed.

[Bristolhibby]

What's happened to the Greens? Only one seat? I'm very surprised at that.

First Past the Post.

J

[CloudSquall]

There's so many marginals in Scotland it's going to be hard to predict what actually happens on the day.


I think the Tory vote is holding up north of the border in the north and south, beyond Murray Labour aren't holding on to anything, will be interesting to see how the SNP / Lib Dem marginals of Caithness and North East Fife go.


Tories are going balls to the walls with the "no2indyref2" campaign, nothing else north of the border from them apart from that.

[Callum_62]

How many seats do they SNP need to be allowed to thibk about indyref again?

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[G B Young]

There's so many marginals in Scotland it's going to be hard to predict what actually happens on the day.


I think the Tory vote is holding up north of the border in the north and south, beyond Murray Labour aren't holding on to anything, will be interesting to see how the SNP / Lib Dem marginals of Caithness and North East Fife go.


Tories are going balls to the walls with the "no2indyref2" campaign, nothing else north of the border from them apart from that.

From today's Guardian story announcing a late shift in strategy by Labour in the wake of the latest polls:

"Labour canvassers have been reporting that Jeremy Corbyn's leadership has come up time and again on the doorstep."

My sister lives in Ian Murray's constituency and told me that they had Labour canvassers at the door a couple of nights ago. When she said Corbyn was putting her off voting Labour they told her not to worry about that because he wasn't going to win and that they hoped she would simply vote for Murray as a good local MP!

[Callum_62]

From today's Guardian story announcing a late shift in strategy by Labour in the wake of the latest polls:

"Labour canvassers have been reporting that Jeremy Corbyn's leadership has come up time and again on the doorstep."

My sister lives in Ian Murray's constituency and told me that they had Labour canvassers at the door a couple of nights ago. When she said Corbyn was putting her off voting Labour they told her not to worry about that because he wasn't going to win and that they hoped she would simply vote for Murray as a good local MP!



LOL, what a message that is [emoji23][emoji23]

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[Cataplana]

LOL, what a message that is [emoji23][emoji23]

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What a toley. He is using the support of the party machine, whilst briefing against the party.

[Pretty Boy]

What a toley. He is using the support of the party machine, whilst briefing against the party.

Corbyn employed that very tactic for years in his constituency campaigning when New Labour was a thing.

[Ozyhibby]

I hope the people in England who lean towards the Labour Party are bringing their memberships up to date because there will be leadership campaign after the election and how it goes could finish the Labour Party for good if they go full communist again.


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[Moulin Yarns]

Tories are going balls to the walls with the "no2indyref2" campaign, nothing else north of the border from them apart from that.

I saw a large banner in a field near Blair Atholl which was just vote, the name of the candidate, to stop indyref2. No mention of the party.

[Peevemor]

I hope the people in England who lean towards the Labour Party are bringing their memberships up to date because there will be leadership campaign after the election and how it goes could finish the Labour Party for good if they go full communist again.


Again? :confused:

[Cataplana]

Corbyn employed that very tactic for years in his constituency campaigning when New Labour was a thing.

Hes not too popular with the electorate either.

[Cataplana]

Again? :confused:

Oh they had this crazy idea about fairer distribution of wealth at one point. I can see where he's coming from.

[Ozyhibby]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191128/3bed82d40b8eaff52a99e3b176d29cfe.png


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[One Day Soon]

What a toley. He is using the support of the party machine, whilst briefing against the party.

Straight from Corbyn's Islington playbook of decades then?

[Cataplana]

Yeah and it turns out to be closer to 150 people per constituency. Like you say it isn’t current data and based on a question of who you would vote for ‘today’.

Much room for twists and turns and certainly a good few news cycles to accommodate gamechanging moments.

I don't think these polls should be broadcast by the likes of the BBC. They should be reporting on what has happened rather than speculating on what might happen.

[One Day Soon]

How many seats do they SNP need to be allowed to thibk about indyref again?

Sent from my VOG-L29 using Tapatalk


The issue for them is more likey to be how many seats they need to create an earthquake big enough to give them some cover for when the trial starts in March.

There's not going to by an Indyref2 next year regardless of the result. SNP senior figures don't want one next year because they don't believe they can win it then. What they want is a result that allows them to demand Indyref2, not get it and then spend a few years nursing Scottish grievance about not getting one. Their preferred second run at it is after the next Scottish Parliament elections.

[One Day Soon]

I'm loving the ludicrous briefing given to the media for today by Labour on their 'campaign relaunch'. Essentially, "the public hasn't been listening to us properly so we're going to tell them the same things in a different way". Plus more Jeremy. Oh and Ian Lavery (who?) being sent to key seats.

Quite incredible that the hard left have ****ed this so badly - again - that they are already preparing the ground for the post election explanation of how another catastophic failure isn't Corbyn's/their fault. Another Tory government for the worst off, gift wrapped by a bunch of political onanists who couldn't give a **** about anything but their student politics.

[Curried]

The issue for them is more likey to be how many seats they need to create an earthquake big enough to give them some cover for when the trial starts in March.

There's not going to by an Indyref2 next year regardless of the result. SNP senior figures don't want one next year because they don't believe they can win it then. What they want is a result that allows them to demand Indyref2, not get it and then spend a few years nursing Scottish grievance about not getting one. Their preferred second run at it is after the next Scottish Parliament elections.

Bollocks. The SNP already have a mandate for a referendum, and no mater how much people of your persuasion wish this would not happen it will happen....next year.

[Hibernia&Alba]

Johnson dodging Andrew Neil on BBC and it looks like he's also backing out of Channel 4's climate change leaders debate. It's odd that Johnson should suddenly have become so diffident, shyness never having been a problem before. Speaking of his desire for media attention, another article of his, this one from the 1990s, is getting attention. This one he wrote about single mothers:


“ill-raised, ignorant, aggressive and illegitimate children who in theory will be paying for our pensions”.Suggesting swingeing cuts to benefits to tackle teen pregnancy, he wrote: “It must be generally plausible that if having a baby out of wedlock meant sure-fire destitution on a Victorian scale, young girls might indeed think twice about having a baby.“And yet no government – and certainly no Labour government – will have the courage to make the cuts in the safety net of the viciousness required to provide anything like such a deterrent. For the reality, surely, is that nine times out of 10 these girls will go on having babies out of wedlock not because they want to qualify for some state hand-out, but because, in their monotonous and depressing lives, they want a little creature to love.”


I believe he now has a couple of 'illegitimate' children of his own. :cb

[One Day Soon]

Bollocks. The SNP already have a mandate for a referendum, and no mater how much people of your persuasion wish this would not happen it will happen....next year.

Bollocks to which bit, needing cover for the trial or not having an Indyref next year?

It isn't a matter of what I do or don't wish for, it's a matter of what they are aiming for tactically. For one thing it is very likely that by the time of any prospective Indyref2 next year the SNP will have a new leader still bedding themselves in. They are also conscious that the trial and its consequences is likely to be a big and not positive distraction from an Indyref2 in 2020.

[One Day Soon]

Johnson dodging Andrew Neil on BBC and it looks like he's also backing out of Channel 4's climate change leaders debate. It's odd that Johnson should suddenly have become so diffident, shyness never having been a problem before. Speaking of his desire for media attention, another article of his, this one from the 1990s, is getting attention. This one he wrote about single mothers:


“ill-raised, ignorant, aggressive and illegitimate children who in theory will be paying for our pensions”.Suggesting swingeing cuts to benefits to tackle teen pregnancy, he wrote: “It must be generally plausible that if having a baby out of wedlock meant sure-fire destitution on a Victorian scale, young girls might indeed think twice about having a baby.“And yet no government – and certainly no Labour government – will have the courage to make the cuts in the safety net of the viciousness required to provide anything like such a deterrent. For the reality, surely, is that nine times out of 10 these girls will go on having babies out of wedlock not because they want to qualify for some state hand-out, but because, in their monotonous and depressing lives, they want a little creature to love.”


I believe he now has a couple of 'illegitimate' children of his own. :cb




Our next Prime Minister really is a morally degenerate hypocritical ********. But then, so is the alternative.

[CloudSquall]

Bollocks to which bit, needing cover for the trial or not having an Indyref next year?

It isn't a matter of what I do or don't wish for, it's a matter of what they are aiming for tactically. For one thing it is very likely that by the time of any prospective Indyref2 next year the SNP will have a new leader still bedding themselves in. They are also conscious that the trial and its consequences is likely to be a big and not positive distraction from an Indyref2 in 2020.

Why do you think they will have anew leader? Due to the trial?

[One Day Soon]

Why do you think they will have anew leader? Due to the trial?

Yes

[Moulin Yarns]

No Labour candidate in Falkirk.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50585278

[Cataplana]

Bollocks. The SNP already have a mandate for a referendum, and no mater how much people of your persuasion wish this would not happen it will happen....next year.

This is interesting. I am pretty sure I want independence, but will listen to the arguments for whether it is a good idea, and how it should be achieved.

I can't see how this totalitarian approach to a democratic decision is helpful, and find myself wondering if I am just supposed to class myself as bring of a certain persuasion, and vote accordingly.

In fact a lot of time could be saved by simply classifying the persuasion of the entire population in advance and allocating their votes accordingly.

Let's be respectful to people's right to make up their minds and participate in debate. There is sometimes sinister about this "whether you like it, or not" approach to democracy.

[Curried]

In response ODS, lets break that down:


The issue for them is more likey to be how many seats they need to create an earthquake big enough to give them some cover for when the trial starts in March.

The SNP are predicted to increase their seats in Scotland by more than 20% at the GE, and I doubt the outcome of any trial on an ex-poly will hinder the cause of independence.



There's not going to by an Indyref2 next year regardless of the result.
Speculation on your part, but we can agree to differ.


SNP senior figures don't want one next year because they don't believe they can win it then.
Source? Or do you have a skin in the game?


What they want is a result that allows them to demand Indyref2, not get it and then spend a few years nursing Scottish grievance about not getting one.
The SNP already have a mandate for another referendum confirmed by a majority vote in the Scottish Parliament. BTW How can you presume to know what "they" want?


Their preferred second run at it is after the next Scottish Parliament elections.

Thanks for the tip. … I'll take it to the bank. LOL

[JeMeSouviens]

Yes

Know something about what NS knew/did/didn't do or just your hunch?

[JeMeSouviens]

Bollocks to which bit, needing cover for the trial or not having an Indyref next year?

It isn't a matter of what I do or don't wish for, it's a matter of what they are aiming for tactically. For one thing it is very likely that by the time of any prospective Indyref2 next year the SNP will have a new leader still bedding themselves in. They are also conscious that the trial and its consequences is likely to be a big and not positive distraction from an Indyref2 in 2020.

Whether you actually know something about the trial or it's just wishful thinking or not ... I think you're right about the timing. Either:

- hung parliament, there will be EUref2 and that will have to come first

or

- Tory majority, they politically can't cave to indyref2

So, the SNP & Greens will have to go for unambiguous, unconditional mandate in 2021 Holyrood and win. Fwiw, I think they will. And I think even the Tories will have to back down on that basis. Spain/Catalonia type situation is something the Yes side can't afford, but do the No side *really* want to go there either?

[One Day Soon]

In response ODS, lets break that down:

https://www.hibs.net/image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAABIAAAALCAMAAAB FyS02AAAAmVBMVEVzc3P///9zc3Nzc3NEaYJzc3Nzc3Nzc3NEaYJzc3Nzc3Nzc3NEaYJzc3Nz c3NEaYJQbH5zc3Nzc3Nzc3NEaYJncHdEaYJEaYJeb3pEaYJEaY JPa35EaYJEaYJFaYJKaoBEaYJIaoFHaoFEaYJEaYJKbodMcYlP c4xXepJZfJRbfpVcf5ZfgplihJtpiqFqjKJtjqVxkqiWtMh7yD 1RAAAAJHRSTlMAAAkMEBMVGiAqKy8wNj9AQVJZaXB8gI Pn6 9v8/T2d/j7O9HaaNBAAAAjElEQVQI1yXIyw6CMBRAwdP2IrQpC2Mk/v/XmeBC0CKlLxfMcpSCyav9HczkCHMBgfvVMUh4jJaOJwiMrnEZb t42bAI0KKBprYHGWRlI25qAPZwVD8ryiqmQl/msz0GOgW/kCAUwcFykZ62bF6nrWezO6OFnyiBiAhjtvM0N6HWm1U6Kgk5AC VAq1MgfV5o88Zy5mnEAAAAASUVORK5CYII= Originally Posted by One Day Soon https://www.hibs.net/image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAwAAAAMAgMAAAA rG7R0AAAACVBMVEX///8AZgLs7Ow5pdhMAAAAAXRSTlMAQObYZgAAACBJREFUCNdjEA0N YQgNDYXgVCDOBOIoKJ0aipADYqBaABpDC8AAKR0gAAAAAElFTk SuQmCC (https://www.hibs.net/showthread.php?p=6001745#post6001745)
The issue for them is more likey to be how many seats they need to create an earthquake big enough to give them some cover for when the trial starts in March.



The SNP are predicted to increase their seats in Scotland by more than 20% at the GE, and I doubt the outcome of any trial on an ex-poly will hinder the cause of independence.

They should certainly increase their number of seats but I think it likely that differential turnout will see the Tories do better than expected and possibly Labour too. The outcome will probably look and feel a lot like the status quo except with Labour going heavily backwards.

https://www.hibs.net/image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAABIAAAALCAMAAAB FyS02AAAAmVBMVEVzc3P///9zc3Nzc3NEaYJzc3Nzc3Nzc3NEaYJzc3Nzc3Nzc3NEaYJzc3Nz c3NEaYJQbH5zc3Nzc3Nzc3NEaYJncHdEaYJEaYJeb3pEaYJEaY JPa35EaYJEaYJFaYJKaoBEaYJIaoFHaoFEaYJEaYJKbodMcYlP c4xXepJZfJRbfpVcf5ZfgplihJtpiqFqjKJtjqVxkqiWtMh7yD 1RAAAAJHRSTlMAAAkMEBMVGiAqKy8wNj9AQVJZaXB8gI Pn6 9v8/T2d/j7O9HaaNBAAAAjElEQVQI1yXIyw6CMBRAwdP2IrQpC2Mk/v/XmeBC0CKlLxfMcpSCyav9HczkCHMBgfvVMUh4jJaOJwiMrnEZb t42bAI0KKBprYHGWRlI25qAPZwVD8ryiqmQl/msz0GOgW/kCAUwcFykZ62bF6nrWezO6OFnyiBiAhjtvM0N6HWm1U6Kgk5AC VAq1MgfV5o88Zy5mnEAAAAASUVORK5CYII= Originally Posted by One Day Soon https://www.hibs.net/image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAwAAAAMAgMAAAA rG7R0AAAACVBMVEX///8AZgLs7Ow5pdhMAAAAAXRSTlMAQObYZgAAACBJREFUCNdjEA0N YQgNDYXgVCDOBOIoKJ0aipADYqBaABpDC8AAKR0gAAAAAElFTk SuQmCC (https://www.hibs.net/showthread.php?p=6001745#post6001745)
There's not going to by an Indyref2 next year regardless of the result.



Speculation on your part, but we can agree to differ.

Not entirely speculation, it's based partly upon the conversations referred to below.

https://www.hibs.net/image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAABIAAAALCAMAAAB FyS02AAAAmVBMVEVzc3P///9zc3Nzc3NEaYJzc3Nzc3Nzc3NEaYJzc3Nzc3Nzc3NEaYJzc3Nz c3NEaYJQbH5zc3Nzc3Nzc3NEaYJncHdEaYJEaYJeb3pEaYJEaY JPa35EaYJEaYJFaYJKaoBEaYJIaoFHaoFEaYJEaYJKbodMcYlP c4xXepJZfJRbfpVcf5ZfgplihJtpiqFqjKJtjqVxkqiWtMh7yD 1RAAAAJHRSTlMAAAkMEBMVGiAqKy8wNj9AQVJZaXB8gI Pn6 9v8/T2d/j7O9HaaNBAAAAjElEQVQI1yXIyw6CMBRAwdP2IrQpC2Mk/v/XmeBC0CKlLxfMcpSCyav9HczkCHMBgfvVMUh4jJaOJwiMrnEZb t42bAI0KKBprYHGWRlI25qAPZwVD8ryiqmQl/msz0GOgW/kCAUwcFykZ62bF6nrWezO6OFnyiBiAhjtvM0N6HWm1U6Kgk5AC VAq1MgfV5o88Zy5mnEAAAAASUVORK5CYII= Originally Posted by One Day Soon https://www.hibs.net/image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAwAAAAMAgMAAAA rG7R0AAAACVBMVEX///8AZgLs7Ow5pdhMAAAAAXRSTlMAQObYZgAAACBJREFUCNdjEA0N YQgNDYXgVCDOBOIoKJ0aipADYqBaABpDC8AAKR0gAAAAAElFTk SuQmCC (https://www.hibs.net/showthread.php?p=6001745#post6001745)
SNP senior figures don't want one next year because they don't believe they can win it then.



Source? Or do you have a skin in the game?

Senior SNP people, elected and otherwise. Though it does depend to some extent upon which side of the Gradualist-Sturgeonite/Fundie-Salmondite divide you are talking to. Not sure what me having a skin in the game means?

https://www.hibs.net/image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAABIAAAALCAMAAAB FyS02AAAAmVBMVEVzc3P///9zc3Nzc3NEaYJzc3Nzc3Nzc3NEaYJzc3Nzc3Nzc3NEaYJzc3Nz c3NEaYJQbH5zc3Nzc3Nzc3NEaYJncHdEaYJEaYJeb3pEaYJEaY JPa35EaYJEaYJFaYJKaoBEaYJIaoFHaoFEaYJEaYJKbodMcYlP c4xXepJZfJRbfpVcf5ZfgplihJtpiqFqjKJtjqVxkqiWtMh7yD 1RAAAAJHRSTlMAAAkMEBMVGiAqKy8wNj9AQVJZaXB8gI Pn6 9v8/T2d/j7O9HaaNBAAAAjElEQVQI1yXIyw6CMBRAwdP2IrQpC2Mk/v/XmeBC0CKlLxfMcpSCyav9HczkCHMBgfvVMUh4jJaOJwiMrnEZb t42bAI0KKBprYHGWRlI25qAPZwVD8ryiqmQl/msz0GOgW/kCAUwcFykZ62bF6nrWezO6OFnyiBiAhjtvM0N6HWm1U6Kgk5AC VAq1MgfV5o88Zy5mnEAAAAASUVORK5CYII= Originally Posted by One Day Soon https://www.hibs.net/image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAwAAAAMAgMAAAA rG7R0AAAACVBMVEX///8AZgLs7Ow5pdhMAAAAAXRSTlMAQObYZgAAACBJREFUCNdjEA0N YQgNDYXgVCDOBOIoKJ0aipADYqBaABpDC8AAKR0gAAAAAElFTk SuQmCC (https://www.hibs.net/showthread.php?p=6001745#post6001745)
What they want is a result that allows them to demand Indyref2, not get it and then spend a few years nursing Scottish grievance about not getting one.



The SNP already have a mandate for another referendum confirmed by a majority vote in the Scottish Parliament. BTW How can you presume to know what "they" want?

The question of whether a mandate currently exists can be extensively and boringly (that's not a dig at you BTW, I just find it boring) debated all day with strong arguments available to both sides. I'm less interested in that because if it does already exist and if the SNP leadership really wanted to move on it then it isn't being pressed home with any conviction to date. I'm more interested in what the real tactical position is in the longer term. I don't presume anything, I infer what I am saying from the conversations I've had and from the extended prevarications on Indyref2 I see from Sturgeon since the 2017 general election result. But mostly the former rather than the latter.

https://www.hibs.net/image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAABIAAAALCAMAAAB FyS02AAAAmVBMVEVzc3P///9zc3Nzc3NEaYJzc3Nzc3Nzc3NEaYJzc3Nzc3Nzc3NEaYJzc3Nz c3NEaYJQbH5zc3Nzc3Nzc3NEaYJncHdEaYJEaYJeb3pEaYJEaY JPa35EaYJEaYJFaYJKaoBEaYJIaoFHaoFEaYJEaYJKbodMcYlP c4xXepJZfJRbfpVcf5ZfgplihJtpiqFqjKJtjqVxkqiWtMh7yD 1RAAAAJHRSTlMAAAkMEBMVGiAqKy8wNj9AQVJZaXB8gI Pn6 9v8/T2d/j7O9HaaNBAAAAjElEQVQI1yXIyw6CMBRAwdP2IrQpC2Mk/v/XmeBC0CKlLxfMcpSCyav9HczkCHMBgfvVMUh4jJaOJwiMrnEZb t42bAI0KKBprYHGWRlI25qAPZwVD8ryiqmQl/msz0GOgW/kCAUwcFykZ62bF6nrWezO6OFnyiBiAhjtvM0N6HWm1U6Kgk5AC VAq1MgfV5o88Zy5mnEAAAAASUVORK5CYII= Originally Posted by One Day Soon https://www.hibs.net/image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAwAAAAMAgMAAAA rG7R0AAAACVBMVEX///8AZgLs7Ow5pdhMAAAAAXRSTlMAQObYZgAAACBJREFUCNdjEA0N YQgNDYXgVCDOBOIoKJ0aipADYqBaABpDC8AAKR0gAAAAAElFTk SuQmCC (https://www.hibs.net/showthread.php?p=6001745#post6001745)
Their preferred second run at it is after the next Scottish Parliament elections.



Thanks for the tip. … I'll take it to the bank. LOL

You should, its a very good tip!

[One Day Soon]

Know something about what NS knew/did/didn't do or just your hunch?

Not a hunch.

[One Day Soon]

Whether you actually know something about the trial or it's just wishful thinking or not ... I think you're right about the timing. Either:

- hung parliament, there will be EUref2 and that will have to come first

or

- Tory majority, they politically can't cave to indyref2

So, the SNP & Greens will have to go for unambiguous, unconditional mandate in 2021 Holyrood and win. Fwiw, I think they will. And I think even the Tories will have to back down on that basis. Spain/Catalonia type situation is something the Yes side can't afford, but do the No side *really* want to go there either?


I agree with your latter analysis, with the SNP leadership change thrown in for good measure. Let's say for the sake of argument that Derek Mackay is First Minister by Feb/March/April/May, your point removes Indyref2 from later next year and his or anyone else's accession probably means they don't want it at that time even if it was available.

You are spot on with the Catalonia point for both Yes and No, though all politicians are showing a remarkable lack of judgment at the moment so who knows?

There's another issue too: does Yes really want a Referendum that may produce a result like the Brexit outcome? Imagine a very narrow Yes vote. We are seeing what a Pyrrhic victory looks like with the Brexit outcome both in terms of a country horribly divided but also in terms of calls for confirmatory votes, including from Sturgeon. Responsible senior Nats want a margin that is decisive not divisive and there are also No people who (though they absoutley are No) would prefer that if it is to be Yes then it should be a unambiguous Yes.

Nobody wants to poison the water for - to borrow a phrase - a generation.

[One Day Soon]

No Labour candidate in Falkirk.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50585278

Once again, Labour in Falkirk covers itself in self-kneecapping glory.

[heretoday]

I saw a large banner in a field near Blair Atholl which was just vote, the name of the candidate, to stop indyref2. No mention of the party.

Farmers and fishermen are against it generally, no?

[JeMeSouviens]

Not a hunch.

Thanks.

I think it would be a crying shame to lose NS over this. It's an invidious, impossible position to be put in. Then again, I don't know what she knew/did/didn't do so I suppose just have to wait and see.

I do think that those caught up in the political bubble are probably overestimating how much effect it will have in the long run. Especially on the wishful thinking side of the house.

[JeMeSouviens]

I agree with your latter analysis, with the SNP leadership change thrown in for good measure. Let's say for the sake of argument that Derek Mackay is First Minister by Feb/March/April/May, your point removes Indyref2 from later next year and his or anyone else's accession probably means they don't want it at that time even if it was available.

You are spot on with the Catalonia point for both Yes and No, though all politicians are showing a remarkable lack of judgment at the moment so who knows?

There's another issue too: does Yes really want a Referendum that may produce a result like the Brexit outcome? Imagine a very narrow Yes vote. We are seeing what a Pyrrhic victory looks like with the Brexit outcome both in terms of a country horribly divided but also in terms of calls for confirmatory votes, including from Sturgeon. Responsible senior Nats want a margin that is decisive not divisive and there are also No people who (though they absoutley are No) would prefer that if it is to be Yes then it should be a unambiguous Yes.

Nobody wants to poison the water for - to borrow a phrase - a generation.

The flipside to "waiting for decisive" is "strike while the iron's hot". If Brexit is the disaster it has every chance of being then the current weak fiscal position on indy day 1 might look like a land of milk and honey. In fact I wonder if that isn't the Tory plan? Scorched Scotch earth as it were. I also think it's practically inconceivable that Indy negotiations (where mainstream Yes thinking is broadly on the same page) could be as badly handled as Brexit negotiations (where getting the Tory *cabinet* to agree to anything has been the hardest part at virtually every turn).

But, yes, I take your point and it's something that's been bothering me too. Notwithstanding impatience I'd sign up to a 5 year delay for a 60% win.

[One Day Soon]

The flipside to "waiting for decisive" is "strike while the iron's hot". If Brexit is the disaster it has every chance of being then the current weak fiscal position on indy day 1 might look like a land of milk and honey. In fact I wonder if that isn't the Tory plan? Scorched Scotch earth as it were. I also think it's practically inconceivable that Indy negotiations (where mainstream Yes thinking is broadly on the same page) could be as badly handled as Brexit negotiations (where getting the Tory *cabinet* to agree to anything has been the hardest part at virtually every turn).

But, yes, I take your point and it's something that's been bothering me too. Notwithstanding impatience I'd sign up to a 5 year delay for a 60% win.


Trust me, that isnt the Tory plan - they're really not that clever.

Remember too that Brexit isn't going to be an overnight disaster, though maybe a no deal would be a little version of one. The really damaging consequences will likely be slow-motion damaging. In that context the Gradualist approach is probably more dangerous from the perspective of a pro-Union person.

On Scexit negotiations I can see no reason why it wouln't be just as bad. Apart from anything else, the idiots on the UK side of the Brexit negotiations would be the same idiots on the UK side of those Scexit discussions...

Notwithstanding patience, I'd sign up for a 60% No vote late next year :greengrin.

[Ozyhibby]

https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/scotland-voting-intention-snp-pole-position-run-election

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191128/5f09c5a222f6b8ba7e7e8abadf65b34f.jpg
Scottish poll for STV looking very good for the SNP.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[CloudSquall]

STV poll for Scotland,

https://stv.tv/news/politics/1442737-stv-poll-snp-heading-for-landslide-of-scottish-seats/



SNP 44%, Tories 26%, Labour 16%, Lib Dems 11%


Leaves SNP on 48 seats, Tories on 6, Lib Dems on 4, Labour on 1.


Independence for and against at 48% each (4 % don't know), so 50/50 when undecideds stripped out.


Shows how important it is for the SNP to get their vote out on the day, could be the difference between 1 or two Tory seats or almost half of them.

[JeMeSouviens]

https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/scotland-voting-intention-snp-pole-position-run-election

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191128/5f09c5a222f6b8ba7e7e8abadf65b34f.jpg
Scottish poll for STV looking very good for the SNP.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Wow! They haven't done a full scale Scottish poll for what seems like years.

As CloudSquall reports, indy numbers are 50/50 (Y actually ahead by 0.2%, yes I am sad enough to have looked :na na:)

[One Day Soon]

Wow! They haven't done a full scale Scottish poll for what seems like years.

As CloudSquall reports, indy numbers are 50/50 (Y actually ahead by 0.2%, yes I am sad enough to have looked :na na:)


Bit surprised with Richard Leonard's negative leadership ratings. How do they know who he is to rate him negatively? :wink:

Oh and you have a PM.

[Peevemor]

Haha

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191128/007308a6f8e43ac05719b120425c8cca.jpg

[JeMeSouviens]

Bit surprised with Richard Leonard's negative leadership ratings. How do they know who he is to rate him negatively? :wink:

Oh and you have a PM.

... and what were the 31% who are satisfied with this thinking? :confused:

https://www.scotsman.com/webimage/1.5048306.1574106263!/image/image.jpg

[One Day Soon]

... and what were the 31% who are satisfied with this thinking? :confused:

https://www.scotsman.com/webimage/1.5048306.1574106263!/image/image.jpg

Thinking may be overstating it.

[Curried]

You should, its a very good tip!

Thanks for responding ODS…it’s much appreciated.

It’s OK I get it…..your whole argument on indy timing is based on hearsay…..

It’s kind of like “I know from some well-placed sources that the Thumb’s coming back in the January transfer window”.

How about spilling the beans and putting a name up..... otherwise your claims can’t be verified and some would say worthless.

To answer your question: “Skin in the game” referrers to betting, and I was enquiring as an aside if you had a financial interest on the date.

[One Day Soon]

Thanks for responding ODS…it’s much appreciated.

It’s OK I get it…..your whole argument on indy timing is based on hearsay…..

It’s kind of like “I know from some well-placed sources that the Thumb’s coming back in the January transfer window”.

How about spilling the beans and putting a name up..... otherwise your claims can’t be verified and some would say worthless.

To answer your question: “Skin in the game” referrers to betting, and I was enquiring as an aside if you had a financial interest on the date.


Hearsay is rumour. I am recounting from first hand conversations. So this is more like "I've spoken to the Thumb and he's saying he's coming back in the January transfer window".

You can decide for yourself whether what I am posting is worthless. There is no chance I'm going to betray the source of confidences or indeed choke off sources by posting names.

I don't have a bet on this. I don't generally bet on politics. I do bet - on football mostly, because its more rational and predictable...

[Curried]

Hearsay is rumour. I am recounting from first hand conversations. So this is more like "I've spoken to the Thumb and he's saying he's coming back in the January transfer window".

You can decide for yourself whether what I am posting is worthless. There is no chance I'm going to betray the source of confidences or indeed choke off sources by posting names.

I don't have a bet on this. I don't generally bet on politics. I do bet - on football mostly, because its more rational and predictable...



Tell me more :greengrin

[Ozyhibby]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191128/161d9ac311349a955888688f83890355.jpg


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[The Harp Awakes]

https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/scotland-voting-intention-snp-pole-position-run-election

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191128/5f09c5a222f6b8ba7e7e8abadf65b34f.jpg
Scottish poll for STV looking very good for the SNP.


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48 seats would be a very good result for the SNP. On the face of it, losing more than half their seats would be a bad outcome for the tories, but I still find it incredible that 26% can still vote for a party that treats Scotland with contempt.

Clearly the tories are still managing to attract the majority of the pro Brexit/anti independence electorate.

[Ozyhibby]

48 seats would be a very good result for the SNP. On the face of it, losing more than half their seats would be a bad outcome for the tories, but I still find it incredible that 26% can still vote for a party that treats Scotland with contempt.

Clearly the tories are still managing to attract the majority of the pro Brexit/anti independence electorate.

Agreed. The have grabbed the British Nationalist vote in Scotland with both hands.


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[Renfrew_Hibby]

Stv polling has for some reason always been favourable towards snp/yes compared to other polling done around the same time.

48 seats though... I'll bite yer hand off for that result.

[G B Young]

East Renfrewshire Labour candidate taking things a stage further than Ian Murray by actually telling voters not to vote for her due to Corbyn's stance on anti-Semitism:

"I know I can't stand here and ask for your vote and I'm not going to because we don't deserve it."

[Renfrew_Hibby]

East Renfrewshire Labour candidate taking things a stage further than Ian Murray by actually telling voters not to vote for her due to Corbyn's stance on anti-Semitism:

"I know I can't stand here and ask for your vote and I'm not going to because we don't deserve it."

Large Jewish community in that constiuency, she's possibly going to lose her deposit.

[WhileTheChief..]

48 seats would be a very good result for the SNP. On the face of it, losing more than half their seats would be a bad outcome for the tories, but I still find it incredible that 26% can still vote for a party that treats Scotland with contempt.

Clearly the tories are still managing to attract the majority of the pro Brexit/anti independence electorate.

At the last election the SNP got around 1M votes with the Tories getting around 800k in Scotland. That's not exactly a huge difference.

You think the Tories treat us with contempt?? It's exactly how I feel about the SNP.

I voted no to Independence and yes to Brexit. Both times on the winning side and in both cases she wants to overturn the result. Doesn't really see fair does it??

[Cataplana]

Large Jewish community in that constiuency, she's possibly going to lose her deposit.

Edit; having finally remembered the joke.

Scottish and Jewish, two stereotypes for the same price.

And why not?

[lapsedhibee]

I voted no to Independence and yes to Brexit. Both times on the winning side and in both cases she wants to overturn the result. Doesn't really see fair does it??

SNP's raison d'etre is to achieve independence. It will soon be six or seven years since Scotland was last consulted on the issue. Nothing could be more reasonable than for the SNP to call for another referendum.

[Cataplana]

SNP's raison d'etre is to achieve independence. It will soon be six or seven years since Scotland was last consulted on the issue. Nothing could be more reasonable than for the SNP to call for another referendum.

Given the fact that there has been a fundamental change in the nature of the Union, which was not instigated by Scotland, we should be allowed to reconsider our position.

[G B Young]

Johnson dodging Andrew Neil on BBC and it looks like he's also backing out of Channel 4's climate change leaders debate. It's odd that Johnson should suddenly have become so diffident, shyness never having been a problem before. Speaking of his desire for media attention, another article of his, this one from the 1990s, is getting attention. This one he wrote about single mothers:


“ill-raised, ignorant, aggressive and illegitimate children who in theory will be paying for our pensions”.Suggesting swingeing cuts to benefits to tackle teen pregnancy, he wrote: “It must be generally plausible that if having a baby out of wedlock meant sure-fire destitution on a Victorian scale, young girls might indeed think twice about having a baby.“And yet no government – and certainly no Labour government – will have the courage to make the cuts in the safety net of the viciousness required to provide anything like such a deterrent. For the reality, surely, is that nine times out of 10 these girls will go on having babies out of wedlock not because they want to qualify for some state hand-out, but because, in their monotonous and depressing lives, they want a little creature to love.”


I believe he now has a couple of 'illegitimate' children of his own. :cb


Poor stuff from Johnson if he doesn't face Neil though I guess he might think the potential damage would be greater by turning up? As for the C4 climate change debate, Johnson never accepted the invite but Gove was apparently happy to represent the Tories. However that would spoil the proposed ice sculpture stunt so C4 knocked him back.

I note Sky have cancelled their leaders debate after Corbyn pulled out in the wake of his car crash with Neil.

[Cataplana]

Poor stuff from Johnson if he doesn't face Neil though I guess he might think the potential damage would be greater by turning up? As for the C4 climate change debate, Johnson never accepted the invite but Gove was apparently happy to represent the Tories. However that would spoil the proposed ice sculpture stunt so C4 knocked him back.

I note Sky have cancelled their leaders debate after Corbyn pulled out in the wake of his car crash with Neil.

I'd say, everytime Boris is on TV I'd say we see a cunning stunt.

[Frankhfc]

Given the fact that there has been a fundamental change in the nature of the Union, which was not instigated by Scotland, we should be allowed to reconsider our position.

Would you be happy to have a referendum on whether or not the Scots want one firstly? I'd be happy with that other than including it in a manifesto somewhere as the Scottish Elections are based upon governance using devolved powers? It would also settle the matter as the UK has the right to refuse a section 30 order even if requested as the tories/labour could easily say they have the mandate to refuse it with being voted in at Westminster which supercedes devolved Holyrood.

I'd be happy for a Scottish referendum asking if the Scots want a second indy ref and that would be both democratic and provide a genuine bona fide mandate.

:aok:

[Cataplana]

Large Jewish community in that constiuency, she's possibly going to lose her deposit.

If it correlates to the number of Jews in the UK, it will amount to 0.5% of the electorate. Of that 0.5%, even less will be anti Corbyn.

I'm guessing the number if less than 500.

[Cataplana]

Would you be happy to have a referendum on whether or not the Scots want one firstly? I'd be happy with that other than including it in a manifesto somewhere as the Scottish Elections are based upon governance using devolved powers? It would also settle the matter as the UK has the right to refuse a section 30 order even if requested as the tories/labour could easily say they have the mandate to refuse it with being voted in at Westminster which supercedes devolved Holyrood.

I'd be happy for a Scottish referendum asking if the Scots want a second indy ref and that would be both democratic and provide a genuine bona fide mandate.

:aok:

No, I think it should be achieved through the parliamentary process.

[JeMeSouviens]

Would you be happy to have a referendum on whether or not the Scots want one firstly? I'd be happy with that other than including it in a manifesto somewhere as the Scottish Elections are based upon governance using devolved powers? It would also settle the matter as the UK has the right to refuse a section 30 order even if requested as the tories/labour could easily say they have the mandate to refuse it with being voted in at Westminster which supercedes devolved Holyrood.

I'd be happy for a Scottish referendum asking if the Scots want a second indy ref and that would be both democratic and provide a genuine bona fide mandate.

:aok:

Certainly novel. :greengrin

Wouldn't it just be a proxy for the real thing though?

[G B Young]

If it correlates to the number of Jews in the UK, it will amount to 0.5% of the electorate. Of that 0.5%, even less will be anti Corbyn.

I'm guessing the number if less than 500.

I think more than a quarter of Scotland's Jewish community live in Newton Mearns so it probably won't correlate to the national average and the Labour candidate may well have been heading for a pasting there even before she asked constituents not to vote for her.

[Frankhfc]

Certainly novel. :greengrin

Wouldn't it just be a proxy for the real thing though?

Probably :greengrin but it definitely would afford a genuine bone fide mandate for one rather than the weaker sounding material change rhetoric.

[JimBHibees]

Is that relevant?

Just interested. Do you know if he is? It would put a different context to him given he hasn't been shy with offensive racial stereotypes himself.

[Ozyhibby]

Probably :greengrin but it definitely would afford a genuine bone fide mandate for one rather than the weaker sounding material change rhetoric.

They have a majority in the Scottish Parliament. That’s a mandate.


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[The Harp Awakes]

At the last election the SNP got around 1M votes with the Tories getting around 800k in Scotland. That's not exactly a huge difference.

You think the Tories treat us with contempt?? It's exactly how I feel about the SNP.

I voted no to Independence and yes to Brexit. Both times on the winning side and in both cases she wants to overturn the result. Doesn't really see fair does it??

It seems very fair to me Given the SNP operate only in Scotland, they actually won the Brexit vote 62/38 and yet we are getting dragged out of the EU against our will. If any one event could justify why Scotland needs to be independent, it is Brexit.

[Bangkok Hibby]

Edit; having finally remembered the joke.

Scottish and Jewish, two stereotypes for the same price.

And why not?

"Perhaps the best value in the graveyard this morning" 😂😂😂

[Frankhfc]

They have a majority in the Scottish Parliament. That’s a mandate.


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Possibly. However, having had one a short while ago its irresponsible in my opinion to continuously keep Scotland on an unsettled keel. It's not good for business nor is it fair on the Scots who aren't so keen for independence. I'm not against independence per say but I'm not convinced yet that independence will be good for Scotland as there's still far more questions than answers. I've not heard any great arguments for independence yet other than to break free from the Union.

[Ozyhibby]

SNP just suspended their candidate in Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath for anti-semitism. Would have been a safe SNP seat as well.
Some things are more important though.
Amazes me how idiotic some people are but they still manage to become MP’s.


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[Ozyhibby]

Possibly. However, having had one a short while ago its irresponsible in my opinion to continuously keep Scotland on an unsettled keel. It's not good for business nor is it fair on the Scots who aren't so keen for independence. I'm not against independence per say but I'm not convinced yet that independence will be good for Scotland as there's still far more questions than answers. I've not heard any great arguments for independence yet other than to break free from the Union.

You never will either. You are a dyed in the wool British Nationalst so nothing will change your mind. No effort will be wasted trying to change your mind.


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[Frankhfc]

You never will either. You are a dyed in the wool British Nationalst so nothing will change your mind. No effort will be wasted trying to change your mind.


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:rolleyes:

Extremely nasty and uncalled for remark.

[Ozyhibby]

:rolleyes:

Extremely nasty and uncalled for remark.

Not sure why. There is no way you could ever vote for independence and you know it.


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[cabbageandribs1875]

SNP just suspended their candidate in Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath for anti-semitism. Would have been a safe SNP seat as well.
Some things are more important though.
Amazes me how idiotic some people are but they still manage to become MP’s.


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good :agree:and good riddance, idiot


other than this fool there's a lot of candidates throughout the UK that have been suspended this election time

[Mibbes Aye]

They have a majority in the Scottish Parliament. That’s a mandate.


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Are you sure about that? La Sturgeon keeps saying she is a good negotiator because of leading a minority government :hmmm:

[Ozyhibby]

Are you sure about that? La Sturgeon keeps saying she is a good negotiator because of leading a minority government :hmmm:

We have to plant lots of trees to keep the greens on side. 22 million last year.[emoji6]


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[Ozyhibby]

good :agree:and good riddance, idiot


other than this fool there's a lot of candidates throughout the UK that have been suspended this election time

You would think parties would have more rigorous selection processes than they obviously do.


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[Mibbes Aye]

We have to plant lots of trees to keep the greens on side. 22 million last year.[emoji6]


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That’s a lot of Greens to keep on side.