US Presidential Elections 2020

[Callum_62]

Florida not looking good for Biden, lots of on the ground reports that Trump has received a massive turnout today, it was a state that was always in the balance but the polls have swung to trump in these last 48 hrs.https://twitter.com/AngrierWHStaff/status/1323733456942235650?s=19

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[Hibrandenburg]

If Trump takes Florida then I reckon he’s got a decent chance. :agree:

If Biden can win the Rust Belt back for the Democrats, then Trump needs a bit more than Florida. I think it all boils down to whether Trump has won over or alienated more voters since 2016, my money would be on the latter.

[One Day Soon]

If Trump takes Florida then I reckon he’s got a decent chance. :agree:

His path is narrow, even if he gets Florida. Watch our for New Hampshire, if Trump fails to take that his path to a winning electoral college margin becomes very tight and any one of a number of states could then knock him out. If he loses Florida he's toast anyway.

[hfc rd]

https://mobile.twitter.com/tbonier/status/1323746771617591298

[Colr]

How’s Kanye doing?

[MWHIBBIES]

Is there any intrinsic reason why that should be the case though? Apart from coincidence? Any inbuilt advantage to an incumbent? I’m not sure there is really, it’s just like tossing a coin 11 times and getting 8 heads and 3 tails :greengrin

I imagine they have much more money in reserve for campaigning. They also don't need to spend to win the nomination.

[Bristolhibby]

Florida & Pennsylvania are the big ones we need for Biden to win, am I right?

Pennsylvania certainly. He can win without Florida. Trump needs to Hold Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. They are my big three to watch.

Keep an eye out for Wisconsin, Michigan and Nevada.

North Carolina and Ohio.

Arizona is another outlier.

J

[One Day Soon]

I imagine they have much more money in reserve for campaigning. They also don't need to spend to win the nomination.

I think Biden has outspent Trump pretty substantially, certainly on television ads in the second half of the campaign.

[hfc rd]

https://mobile.twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1323747297491116035?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5 Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1323747297491116035%7Ctwgr% 5Eshare_3&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fs9e.github.io%2Fiframe%2F2%2 Ftwitter.min.html1323747297491116035

Tide turning..

[hibsbollah]

I imagine they have much more money in reserve for campaigning. They also don't need to spend to win the nomination.

Im not sure that’s the case in relation to campaign funds, although I don’t know for sure. Certainly Biden has raised more $ than Trump this time.

[hfc rd]

Pennsylvania certainly. He can win without Florida. Trump needs to Hold Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. They are my big three to watch.

Keep an eye out for Wisconsin, Michigan and Nevada.

North Carolina and Ohio.

Arizona is another outlier.

J

Cheers mate, hopefully hear one of those States results soon

[Callum_62]

https://mobile.twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1323747297491116035?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5 Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1323747297491116035%7Ctwgr% 5Eshare_3&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fs9e.github.io%2Fiframe%2F2%2 Ftwitter.min.html1323747297491116035

Tide turning..A blue wave?

[emoji23][emoji23]

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[Callum_62]

https://twitter.com/CondreayDavid/status/1323743410616889346?s=19

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[Vault Boy]

A blue wave?

[emoji23][emoji23]

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I'd like the odds on Marco Rubio deleting that tweet within the next 4 hours. :greengrin

[Callum_62]

The UK on point as always. https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201103/d477d86fe890c771d0fc386eafeffffb.jpg

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[Vault Boy]

The UK on point as always. https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201103/d477d86fe890c771d0fc386eafeffffb.jpg

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A list of things Donald Trump is hoping to grab?

[CropleyWasGod]

The UK on point as always. https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201103/d477d86fe890c771d0fc386eafeffffb.jpg

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They're boxy, but they're good.

[hibsbollah]

They're boxy, but they're good.

I prefer a Saab.

[Mon Dieu4]

Canny believe there are Cuban Americans in Florida voting for Trump because they fear socialism, I get that it's a genuine fear for many who were persecuted etc but Biden a socialist, really?

[Ozyhibby]

Canny believe there are Cuban Americans in Florida voting for Trump because they fear socialism, I get that it's a genuine fear for many who were persecuted etc but Biden a socialist, really?

I think a lot of Cubans are hardline anti Castro and were against Obama (and therefore Biden) normalising relations with Cuba.


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[Mon Dieu4]

I think a lot of Cubans are hardline anti Castro and were against Obama (and therefore Biden) normalising relations with Cuba.


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Good point, I hadn't thought of that aspect of it

I was half trying to noise up Hibsbollah as well to be honest haha

[hibsbollah]

Canny believe there are Cuban Americans in Florida voting for Trump because they fear socialism, I get that it's a genuine fear for many who were persecuted etc but Biden a socialist, really?

For such a tiny minority, those Cubans have a massively disproportionate impact on US elections. 29 electoral college votes, those one million Cubans hold a lot of power.

[hibsbollah]

Good point, I hadn't thought of that aspect of it

I was half trying to noise up Hibsbollah as well to be honest haha

:greengrinAlright mate, the noising up will have to wait, I’m off to bed, alarm set for 5am though. Fight The Power :aok:

[Ozyhibby]

Taking the morning off tomorrow to sit up and watch. Quite sad really.[emoji23]


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[One Day Soon]

Taking the morning off tomorrow to sit up and watch. Quite sad really.[emoji23]


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I don't think you'll regret it.

[Ozyhibby]

Florida already looking good for Biden.[emoji106]


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[660]

Florida already looking good for Biden.[emoji106]


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how are you following it

[Ozyhibby]

how are you following it

CNN.
Miami vote not looking as good for Biden though. Cuban vote looks like it is hurting him.


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[CapitalGreen]

Florida already looking good for Biden.[emoji106]


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Not anymore, terrible numbers coming out of Miami/Dade.

[Callum_62]

Florida already looking good for Biden.[emoji106]


Sent from my iPhone using TapatalkTrump now very likley to win FL

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[Ozyhibby]

Still think Biden will take Florida but if he loses it because of Cuban vote at least it’s not something that will be a factor in rest of the country.


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[CloudSquall]

Early data in Georgia showing Biden doing much better with white voters than Clinton but behind in the young and latino vote.

[Hibs90]

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1323788328903217152?s=19

[Bristolhibby]

FWIW these Miami-Dade numbers include ALL early in-person votes (expected to skew GOP) but only partial mail votes (expected to skew Dem). Dunno how much is out or how much ground Biden can make up but this isn't final.

J

[Bristolhibby]

Ohio is looking promising.

J

[Ozyhibby]

Ohio is looking promising.

J

I’m feeling very confident for Biden now. If it wasn’t for Miami I think Florida would be in the bag by now.


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[cabbageandribs1875]

No more years
No more years

[Bristolhibby]

I’m feeling very confident for Biden now. If it wasn’t for Miami I think Florida would be in the bag by now.


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Indeed, like I said. Their Mail in votes get dumped in late, that could lengthen the Miami-Dade %.

J

[Bristolhibby]

Right, I’m turning in.

Keep an eye on Ohio.

J

[CapitalGreen]

Indeed, like I said. Their Mail in votes get dumped in late, that could lengthen the Miami-Dade %.

J

Most of the remaining votes are from the panhandle counties which closed later, they fall heavily in favour of Trump.

[Ozyhibby]

Most of the remaining votes are from the panhandle counties which closed later, they fall heavily in favour of Trump.

It can be hard to tell though. The 11% of Miami votes still to come in could be worth the same as all them combined.


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[marinello59]

A long long night ahead by the looks of all this. Wiping sleep from my eyes and trying to work out just what’s going on. Trump looks to be doing better than predicted.

[Ozyhibby]

North Carolina looking good for Biden.


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[Gloucester Hibs]

Trump’s price shortening with the bookies, he actually went favourite for a brief moment

[Vault Boy]

Biden still ahead in Texas. That would be quite stunning.

[Callum_62]

Why do I have a sense of foreboding....

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[marinello59]

Biden still ahead in Texas. That would be quite stunning.

Looking more even there now.

[Ozyhibby]

Why do I have a sense of foreboding....

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Not sure? Apart from Miami-Dade it’s all been positive for Biden?


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[Vault Boy]

Looking more even there now.

Yeah, quite a few of the swing states are tightening up in Trump's favour now, though some will still have their mail in ballots to add.

[marinello59]

Not sure? Apart from Miami-Dade it’s all been positive for Biden?


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I wish I could share your optimism at this point.

[Ozyhibby]

I wish I could share your optimism at this point.

My optimism is waning right now.[emoji51]


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[The 90+2]

Trump’s price shortening with the bookies, he actually went favourite for a brief moment

He is well odds on now to win.

[Ozyhibby]

Arizona a bright spot just now.


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[The 90+2]

Arizona a bright spot just now.


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The only. Penny looks the key state.

[Just_Jimmy]

trump is going to win. if so how utterly depressing.

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[marinello59]

Arizona a bright spot just now.


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I feel a bit better after watching the analysis on CNN for a while. It’s maybe all wishful thinking but it could be a very narrow Biden win.

[CloudSquall]

A tie could be a possibly.

[Ozyhibby]

It’s def going to be tight now. Polls were def wrong no matter what happens now.


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[Mon Dieu4]

im not sure who's behind them, Russia, China or people just at it but one thing for sure is that bots are all over social media in a way I've never actually seen before, I'd always believed it was the case but reading them tonight it only goes to cement how obvious it actually is

You see the same post over and over again or just total spamming that's definitely not done by real people

[Ozyhibby]

Looks like no result now till tomorrow. All going to be about how much Biden won in early voting in blue wall states and they are not counting them yet. Looks like he’s won Arizona so he needs two out of the three.
I’m off for a kip now. [emoji23]


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[cabbageandribs1875]

reading online at a rally yesterday biden introduced one of his grandaughers as his dead son beau biden, then by her cousins name, keep him away from the satchel with the nuclear button for the love of god.

[marinello59]

Bookies still have Trump favourite but they are starting to move back towards Biden again. Another indication of just how tight this will be.

[Just_Jimmy]

the fact it's this tight after everything shows what a waste polling actually is now. people are clearly not telling the truth when asked.

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[The 90+2]

Bookies still have Trump favourite but they are starting to move back towards Biden again. Another indication of just how tight this will be.

They will lose a lot of money if Trump wins so they are closing it closer to Biden. Got Biden earlier at 2/1 to cover everything with my winnings of Florida when it’s called for Trump.

Trump smashes Ohio.

[hibsbollah]

im not sure who's behind them, Russia, China or people just at it but one thing for sure is that bots are all over social media in a way I've never actually seen before, I'd always believed it was the case but reading them tonight it only goes to cement how obvious it actually is

You see the same post over and over again or just total spamming that's definitely not done by real people

This is what happens when I go to sleep on the job ?! :panic: You were supposed to make sure this doesn’t happen :grr:

[hibsbollah]

The senates not looking good...graham wins his seat in a Carolina. Jones loses in Bama sadly.

[Just_Jimmy]

NY times has biden at 62% in Georgia.



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[Ozyhibby]

NY times has biden at 62% in Georgia.



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If he wins that then he only needs one of the blue wall states. Would be massive boost for Biden. Right, I’m off to bed.


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[cabbageandribs1875]

NY times has biden at 62% in Georgia.



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Trump is 300k ahead in georgia at present, biden has a huge lead in atlanta but 'm not sure if that lead will make up 300k

[cabbageandribs1875]

Biden to make a statement shortly, don't know why :confused:

[Just_Jimmy]

Trump is 300k ahead in georgia at present, biden has a huge lead in atlanta but 'm not sure if that lead will make up 300ksorry NY times said a 62% chance in Georgia.

I've no idea how it'll turn out now and I'm tired so going to try and sleep.

even if biden wins, the fact so many are still pro trump is sad

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[I'm_cabbaged]

They will lose a lot of money if Trump wins so they are closing it closer to Biden. Got Biden earlier at 2/1 to cover everything with my winnings of Florida when it’s called for Trump.

Trump smashes Ohio.

That’s not how bookies work 😉

[The 90+2]

That’s not how bookies work 😉

If I knew how they worked I would be a millionaire 🤣🤷*♂️

[cabbageandribs1875]

sorry NY times said a 62% chance in Georgia.

I've no idea how it'll turn out now and I'm tired so going to try and sleep.

even if biden wins, the fact so many are still pro trump is sad

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still a long way to go :agree:

[neil7908]

If the polling has been wrong again then they need to all find a new job.

Now starting to wonder why I care so much. This shouldn't even be a contest right now. A narrow Biden victory will be largely meaningless anyway if the Democrats don't take the Senate.

[cabbageandribs1875]

trump wins florida= 29 seats
Iowa trump =6 seats


Biden speaking at the moment, at least he remembered where he is anyway, believes they are on track to win election, his wife had to tell him who to thank.


trumps camp very anxious one network is calling arizona for biden

Trump 'they are trying to steal this election' votes cannot be counted after poles are closed...yep POLES lol

[Callum_62]

If the polling has been wrong again then they need to all find a new job.

Now starting to wonder why I care so much. This shouldn't even be a contest right now. A narrow Biden victory will be largely meaningless anyway if the Democrats don't take the Senate.I care probably because a Biden victory is a step away from chaos and a small step back towards normal

In these times that's a much needed outcome



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[Mon Dieu4]

I see Oregon has decriminalised possession of street drugs tonight as well, be interesting to see how that works out

[marinello59]

And so it begins, Trump accuses Democrats of trying to steal the elections. This could get messy.

[neil7908]

Trump is going to win this and the Republicans will keep the Senate. No deal Brexit probably coming our way as a result. Awesome.

[cabbageandribs1875]

Biden well ahead in the eearly postal votes in pennsylvania and michigan

[The 90+2]

Biden well ahead in the eearly postal votes in pennsylvania and michigan

CNN saying Trumps pissing Penny.

[cabbageandribs1875]

CNN saying Trumps pissing Penny.


just saw that, approx 700k ahead :hmmm: getting my states mixed up i think


i still think biden is gonna get this


Trump gets texas =38 seats, huge win that

[The 90+2]

just saw that, approx 700k ahead :hmmm: getting my states mixed up i think


i still think biden is gonna get this

Hope so matey 👍

[Stairway 2 7]

Bookies have trump 4/6 Biden 6/5

Georgia 1/4 rep

Pennsylvania 1/2 rep

Michigan 4/6 dem

Wisconsin 4/6 dem

[cabbageandribs1875]

not that it matters but biden 1.3m ahead in the popular vote

[Stairway 2 7]

Polls are beyond a joke now regardless of results, same with last few uk elections

[cabbageandribs1875]

Bet365 only offering me £8.93 cash out on my biden bet :(


Biden surely going to pick up 11 in arizona

[neil7908]

Bet365 only offering me £8.93 cash out on my biden bet :(

Trump now comfortable favourites with most bookies.

[Gloucester Hibs]

Trump 8/13 on to win now 😱 Pollsters made a dogs dinner of it again it seems, massively underestimated the “shy Trump” vote.

[The 90+2]

Bookies have trump 4/6 Biden 6/5

Georgia 1/4 rep

Pennsylvania 1/2 rep

Michigan 4/6 dem

Wisconsin 4/6 dem

8/13 13/10 now. Made my money back regardless ok Florida. Have a lot on trump to win Penny.

[cabbageandribs1875]

Electoral map

220 biden 213 trump


270 needed


Trumps georgia lead now down to 120k with 9% still to be counted

[hibsbollah]

Here’s a good tracker if you want to do the hypotheticals yourself.

https://ig.ft.com/us-election-2020/

This could still be all come down to the desert states, If Biden gets Nevada and Arizona he could still lose all the other close ones including GA, PA and get to 271 and win.

[Stairway 2 7]

Michigan and 1/2 on rep and wisconsin 4/5 rep now 😢

[Beefster]

****ing US. Four years of that racist, misogynistic, narcissistic, useless twat and it should have been a landslide for the Democrats, irrespective of the candidate.

[hibsbollah]

Michigan and 1/2 on rep and wisconsin 4/5 rep now 😢

Michigan? Biden had a 7.4% lead yesterday, I can’t believe that. If true, that changes everything

[bawheid]

This thread is like a pre-derby thread on the MB. WE’RE GONNA SMASH THEM.

Eh, naw.

If America votes for four more years of Trump we really are all ****ed.

[The 90+2]

Trump is pissing everywhere bar Nevada it seems.

[Pretty Boy]

If this is as close as it looks then that single EC vote for Biden in Nebradka could be important.

I think it's going to be a Trump win though.

[cabbageandribs1875]

biden will get arizona=11 and nevada=6

trump should get penn=20

237 v 233

[Hibs90]

Yeah Bidens done I reckon

[cabbageandribs1875]

Trump is pissing everywhere bar Nevada it seems.


i think there's still approx 2m postal votes to be counted, inc michigan i think they said

[weecounty hibby]

Just up, read the news. Depressed, very ****ing depressed

[cabbageandribs1875]

Wisconsin =10 seats

trump 110k ahead with 80% counted

[Bristolhibby]

Electoral map

220 biden 213 trump


270 needed


Trumps georgia lead now down to 120k with 9% still to be counted

Mon Atlanta!

J

[cabbageandribs1875]

Mon Atlanta!

J



and detroit

pumpkin heid statement coming up

trump wearing a blue tie, maybe an omen

[marinello59]

It’s showtime...... here’s Donald......

[JimBHibees]

Yeah Bidens done I reckon

Still tight in some areas with loads of votes still to be voted.

[JimBHibees]

and detroit

pumpkin heid statement coming up

trump wearing a blue tie, maybe an omen

Still some of the more urban Georgia votes to be counted.

[weecounty hibby]

How are we feeling about the Chances of a Burden win? I'm just up so not followed the election. It's not looking good

[lord bunberry]

Tango man seems to fancy his chances, but he’s saying he’s been cheated in Texas.

[hibsbollah]

It’s showtime...... here’s Donald......

What he’s saying is shocking, but of course it’s not shocking.
This is a fraud.
We did win this election.
Hes a fascist.

[weecounty hibby]

Tango man seems to fancy his chances, but he’s saying he’s been cheated in Texas.

Hasn't he won Texas?

[JimBHibees]

How are we feeling about the Chances of a Burden win? I'm just up so not followed the election. It's not looking good

Still millions of votes to be counted.

[cabbageandribs1875]

lol cringe

[lord bunberry]

Hasn't he won Texas?
I’m not sure, but he keeps saying it’s a fraud.

[The 90+2]

Trump seems worried tbf.

[Glory Lurker]

Just up. Oh my god.

[JimBHibees]

Hasn't he won Texas?

Think so.

He is an absolute disaster.

[lord bunberry]

He’s going to the Supreme Court.

[weecounty hibby]

I’m not sure, but he keeps saying it’s a fraud.

Is it a fraud in states he's won, or just ones he's lost?

[Bristolhibby]

I can’t listen to the guy. What a knob.

Going on about fraud. Getting his licks in first.

Standard Trump playbook. IMHO he knows he will lose Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

J

[cabbageandribs1875]

wants all voting to stop :confused:

[Bristolhibby]

Is it a fraud in states he's won, or just ones he's lost?

Ones he’s going to lose. Laying the tracks.

J

[lord bunberry]

Is it a fraud in states he's won, or just ones he's lost?
Tbh it’s not immediately apparent, but he’s going to court to get voting stopped.
edit vote counting.

[The 90+2]

He’s going to the Supreme Court.

Don’t understand why when he’s winning anyway?

[weecounty hibby]

I'm actually nervous about an election in a foreign country. It is so important to get that lunatic out of office and I can't believe so many Americans still vote for him

[weecounty hibby]

Tbh it’s not immediately apparent, but he’s going to court to get voting stopped.
The supreme court where he just installed another right wing justice. 🤔 What an amazing coincidence

[cabbageandribs1875]

he's a fool, an embarrassing fool

still a couple of million votes to count

[The 90+2]

I'm actually nervous about an election in a foreign country. It is so important to get that lunatic out of office and I can't believe so many Americans still vote for him

Same. I’ve never really cared much but I can’t believe they’re about to appoint this tube again.

[lord bunberry]

The supreme court where he just installed another right wing justice. 🤔 What an amazing coincidence
It’s almost as if he planned it this way.

[The 90+2]

he's a fool, an embarrassing fool

still a couple of million votes to count

To the outside world it seems. In America he’s doing it again somehow.

[weecounty hibby]

he's a fool, an embarrassing fool

Sadly, unbelievably, not so much of an embarrassing fool that approx 50% of Americans will vote for him😱

[Stairway 2 7]

I can’t listen to the guy. What a knob.

Going on about fraud. Getting his licks in first.

Standard Trump playbook. IMHO he knows he will lose Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

J
Get a bet on Pennsylvania 1/4 rep
Michigan 2/5 rep
Wisconsin 2/5 rep
Hope not

[marinello59]

Pence took a slightly different line from Trump who really didn’t disappoint. We have an interesting few days ahead.

[Hibernia&Alba]

This could be a nightmare. As expected, in the event of a close call in the electoral college, Trump demands the counting of postal votes to stop and that any Biden victory will be a fraud. The extremists in his support will have heard it loud and clear, and there could be chaos, including the possibility of violence.

Trump knows exactly what he is doing: shout fraud and try to get the election stopped in the Supreme Court which contains three Justices he appointed.

Not a good situation.

[JimBHibees]

I can’t listen to the guy. What a knob.

Going on about fraud. Getting his licks in first.

Standard Trump playbook. IMHO he knows he will lose Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

J

Don't think he will lose Pennsylvania as 700k clear

[Hibernia&Alba]

Don't think he will lose Pennsylvania as 700k clear

The big cities have hardly been counted yet, due to the massive postal votes. It's the more rural areas where the count is almost complete and they are Trump's strength. It could still change.

[calumhibee1]

Can’t see any way trump isn’t winning this now.

[The 90+2]

He seems to be turning round Arizona too now 🤣🤣🤣

[Hibernia&Alba]

It's a shame it has come to this, with lawyers deciding the election again. In any sane country Trump would have been wiped out after his four crazy years and the COVID disaster. America seems to have lost its mind. Just have to wait and see.

[Hibs90]

I feel for the sane Americans.

A country brainwashed by fascists.

[marinello59]

Trump is betting on it all coming down to Pennsylvania. If that doesn’t happen it’s game over for him.

[Hibernia&Alba]

Trump is betting on it all coming down to Pennsylvania. If that doesn’t happen it’s game over for him.

I think it's 50-50 right now, but Trump has already claimed victory and a crime in the counting of votes. His supporters won't believe he can lose without Democrat cheating.

[Glory Lurker]

If the chat about Johnson waiting for the outcome before choosing brexit approach is true, a court case will cause chaos over here too.

[marinello59]

If the chat about Johnson waiting for the outcome before choosing brexit approach is true, a court case will cause chaos over here too.

I think that chat was no more than wishful thinking from remainers expecting a Biden win.

[calumhibee1]

So am I right in saying that if Trump wins GA, NC, PA, Mich, Alaska and Wis which he’s currently leading in that he’ll win the electoral college fairly comfortably?

[hibsbollah]

Trump is betting on it all coming down to Pennsylvania. If that doesn’t happen it’s game over for him.

He also knows the absentee ballots, which some states haven’t counted yet, will be majority Democrat. He knows the analytics better than anyone else.

[Hibernia&Alba]

So am I right in saying that if Trump wins GA, NC, PA, Mich and Wis which he’s currently leading in that he’ll win the electoral college fairly comfortably?

Yes, but that's a very big if.

This is the worst possible result in terms of keeping the peace. A big win either way would have put the issue to bed. Instead it looks like it's going to the courts and there will be angry recriminations. I suppose it highlights just how divided America is.

[hibsbollah]

FFS the BBC are loading up with swivel eyed right wing ideologues this morning. Liam Fox now Dominic Raab?!
Any chance of some balance?

[calumhibee1]

Yes, but that's a very big if.

This is the worst possible result in terms of keeping the peace. A big win either way would have put the issue to bed. Instead it looks like it's going to the courts and there will be angry recriminations. I suppose it highlights just how divided America is.

I reckon he’ll win this and win it more comfortably than anyone suspected - or at least as comfortably as he can from this point. I’d agree though, if it’s close then there’ll be chaos.

[Hibernia&Alba]

Arizona now officially called for Biden. Trump won it in 2016.


Biden 236 - 213 Trump

[hibsbollah]

Biden takes Arizona! That’s massive.

[Bristolhibby]

Get a bet on Pennsylvania 1/4 rep
Michigan 2/5 rep
Wisconsin 2/5 rep
Hope not

Sadly I think we are heading that way. Pennsylvania looks like free money. Biden needs 75% of the postal votes to nick it back.

J

[Moulin Yarns]

FFS the BBC are loading up with swivel eyed right wing ideologues this morning. Liam Fox now Dominic Raab?!
Any chance of some balance?

Lisa Nandy on itv for some balance

[The 90+2]

Biden takes Arizona! That’s massive.

Great news.

[weecounty hibby]

Cmon Arizona!! Feel a bit better about that. Was that unexpected?

[CropleyWasGod]

Cmon Arizona!! Feel a bit better about that. Was that unexpected?

No Republican has won without Arizona since WW2

[weecounty hibby]

No Republican has won without Arizona since WW2
Fingers crossed then. Well done Arizona. Perhaps he saw that coming and it's why he's claiming fraud and trying to stop counts

[hibsbollah]

Cmon Arizona!! Feel a bit better about that. Was that unexpected?
Biden had a very tight lead, and a chunky amount of electoral ballots so it’s big. Now if he gets Nevada Michigan and Wisconsin will take him over the line.

[lapsedhibee]

He also knows the absentee ballots, which some states haven’t counted yet, will be majority Democrat. He knows the analytics better than anyone else.

'No one knows more about alanytics than I do.'

[The 90+2]

Biden had a very tight lead, and a chunky amount of electoral ballots so it’s big. Now if he gets Nevada Michigan and Wisconsin will take him over the line.

Nevada maybe the other two is highly doubtful.

[I'm_cabbaged]

No Republican has won without Arizona since WW2

Well he’ll be the first according to the bookies, 4/9 now.

[weecounty hibby]

Well he’ll be the first according to the bookies, 4/9 now.

Totally soul destroying that. I know we are looking on from a distance but I cannot believe America think that he is the best person to lead them.

[Bristolhibby]

Philadelphia
Detroit
Milwaukee

C’mon the cities, swing, ba-da-bing.

Arizona BTW is big.

Just needs two of the three.

J

[makaveli1875]

Another 4 years of Trump then. Never saw that coming

[660]

The bookies are irrelevant.

[PeeJay]

Biden takes Arizona! That’s massive.

Trump took Arizona in 2016, but NOT on election night, only after completing the count several days afterwards - maybe best to wait for official confirmation?

[degenerated]

So am I right in saying that if Trump wins GA, NC, PA, Mich, Alaska and Wis which he’s currently leading in that he’ll win the electoral college fairly comfortably?The bookies have trump at odds on to win, theyre rarely wrong.

[calumhibee1]

The bookies have trump at odds on to win, theyre rarely wrong.

:agree:

I’d be surprised if he doesn’t win from this point.

[marinello59]

The bookies have trump at odds on to win, theyre rarely wrong.

How often have you seen an odds on favourite lose a race? The odds reflect the market rather than any great insight. I’m holding on to that. :greengrin

[hibsbollah]

Trump took Arizona in 2016, but NOT on election night, only after completing the count several days afterwards - maybe best to wait for official confirmation?

AP has called Arizona for Biden, probably because weve known for months that the Democrats have a big lead in postal ballots. That puts him in a strong position. If all the votes are counted (I’m typing that like it’s a thing that should be questioned! Crazy :faf:) , I still think Biden has this won. After what Trump has said, that will never be enough for some, of course.

[Pretty Boy]

That speech from Trump was a disgrace.

He's just laid the foundations for people to take to the streets if it doesn't go his way. People with guns.

[hibsbollah]

Nevada maybe the other two is highly doubtful.

Michigan won’t get called finally till Friday, I think Wisconsin will be later today.

[danhibees1875]

The bookies have trump at odds on to win, theyre rarely wrong.

Apart from when they had biden odds on. :greengrin

[Pretty Boy]

The bookies are irrelevant.

The bookies were largely wrong about the EU referendum, the last US election and about the margin of victory in the last general election here. They have also had Biden as a clear favourite for weeks.

I think Trump will nick it but I wouldn't be reading too much into the bookies odds.

[JeMeSouviens]

****!

But ...

The NY Times is still projecting a tight Biden win in Georgia. He should win Nevada, he’s still favourite for Wisconsin and Michigan.

I think Biden might just do it without Penn?

[degenerated]

How often have you seen an odds on favourite lose a race? The odds reflect the market rather than any great insight. I’m holding on to that. :greengrinNot often enough for the bookies not to be absolutely minted.

[cabbageandribs1875]

my money has been on biden for 4 months, if bet365 message me to ask if i want to change my bet i'l leave it on biden

[Hibrandenburg]

Farage on the BBC backing Trump's claims of election fraud and admitting that there's no evidence of fraud but that postal voting is dodgy. Goon.

[hibsbollah]

****!

But ...

The NY Times is still projecting a tight Biden win in Georgia. He should win Nevada, he’s still favourite for Wisconsin and Michigan.

I think Biden might just do it without Penn?

:agree: Michigan might not get called till Friday, Wisconsin later today. But the path is still there, even without Georgia actually.

[Hibernia&Alba]

The polls averaged gave Trump about a ten per cent chance of victory. If he wins again, they may as well give up.

[degenerated]

Apart from when they had biden odds on. :greengrinThat was between January and March, it's moved the other way since then.

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/winner

[PeeJay]

AP has called Arizona for Biden, probably because weve known for months that the Democrats have a big lead in postal ballots. That puts him in a strong position. If all the votes are counted (I’m typing that like it’s a thing that should be questioned! Crazy :faf:) , I still think Biden has this won. After what Trump has said, that will never be enough for some, of course.

I'm watching CNN and they are reticent about calling yet, let's hope it comes true - I'm missing the UK tradition of the "returning officer" and the official count notification :greengrin ... think Trump has called it for himself, isn't that what Putin and the Chinese leader normally do?

100 million non voters stateside - now that is a problem that needs addressing ....

[hibsbollah]

Raab, Liam Fox, now ****ing Farage (who was more critical of Trumps speech than Raab). Give me peace, BBC.

[Hibernia&Alba]

Both Georgia and North Carolina are looking very close. Could be re-counts; certainly lawyers.

[marinello59]

I'm watching CNN and they are reticent about calling yet, let's hope it comes true - I'm missing the UK tradition of the "returning officer" and the official count notification :greengrin ... think Trump has called it for himself, isn't that what Putin and the Chinese leader normally do?

100 million non voters stateside - now that is a problem that needs addressing ....

The Americans will never have the pleasure of seeing Lord BucketHead waving to his supporters as the results are announced. That’s the first thing I would fix over there. :greengrin

[Bostonhibby]

AP has called Arizona for Biden, probably because weve known for months that the Democrats have a big lead in postal ballots. That puts him in a strong position. If all the votes are counted (I’m typing that like it’s a thing that should be questioned! Crazy :faf:) , I still think Biden has this won. After what Trump has said, that will never be enough for some, of course.Trump's playing this card because he knows he's likely to lose if the postal votes are properly counted. The trends tell him, or at least those who do the clever things for him are telling him, that.

They'd already devised the strategy that if and when he's projected at having a real chance of losing they claim victory and turn to the Supreme courts which have been carefully packed with hand picked judges.

If he gets there the question is are they judges or people who have to return the favour?

His conduct will see civil unrest and maybe even deaths but does he care in pursuit of the prize?

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[JeMeSouviens]

:agree: Michigan might not get called till Friday, Wisconsin later today. But the path is still there, even without Georgia actually.

Biden needs 32 more EVs from:

Georgia 16
Nevada 6
Michigan 16
Wisconsin 10
Pennsylvania 20
N Carolina 15

There are a few ways to get there. The quickest way would be nice! :greengrin

[Bristolhibby]

Trump's playing this card because he knows he's likely to lose if the postal votes are properly counted. The trends tell him, or at least those who do the clever things for him are telling him, that.

They'd already devised the strategy that if and when he's projected at having a real chance of losing they claim victory and turn to the Supreme courts which have been carefully packed with hand picked judges.

If he gets there the question is are they judges or people who have to return the favour?

His conduct will see civil unrest and maybe even deaths but does he care in pursuit of the prize?

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Thing is, there’s no legal reason for the Supreme Court to interfere in say a Pennsylvania vote count issue.

Postal votes are votes. Can’t believe I’ve typed that. I’ll play to the Trump supporter, there are soldiers protecting Murica who are from Pennsylvania that their Commander in Chief is saying should t have their vote counted.

Madness.

[marinello59]

Biden needs 32 more EVs from:

Georgia 16
Nevada 6
Michigan 16
Wisconsin 10
Pennsylvania 20
N Carolina 15

There are a few ways to get there. The quickest way would be nice! :greengrin

I’m still sticking with a narrow win for Biden. This is far from over.

[hibsbollah]

Trump's playing this card because he knows he's likely to lose if the postal votes are properly counted. The trends tell him, or at least those who do the clever things for arr telling him, that.

They'd already devised the strategy that if and when he's projected at having a real chance of losing they claim victory and turn to the Supreme courts which have been carefully packed with hand picked judges.

If he gets there the question is are they judges or people who have to return the favour?

His conduct will see civil unrest and maybe even deaths but does he care in pursuit of the prize?

Sent from my SM-A750FN using Tapatalk

:agree: The strategy was definitely planned long ago.

I think I posted a while ago, 73% of Dems were planning to vote by absentee ballot. 54% of Republicans were planning to vote in person. Trump knows that too. I actually think Trump thinks he’s lost.

[Bostonhibby]

Thing is, there’s no legal reason for the Supreme Court to interfere in say a Pennsylvania vote count issue.

Postal votes are votes. Can’t believe I’ve typed that. I’ll play to the Trump supporter, there are soldiers protecting Murica who are from Pennsylvania that their Commander in Chief is saying should t have their vote counted.

Madness.I agree, but the big fat orange guy doesn't think he needs one so long as he shouts directly to the mob often enough.

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[Hibernia&Alba]

Biden needs 32 more EVs from:

Georgia 16
Nevada 6
Michigan 16
Wisconsin 10
Pennsylvania 20
N Carolina 15

There are a few ways to get there. The quickest way would be nice! :greengrin

I wouldn't like to call it just now; it really could go either way. If Tump wins Pennsylvania, he might just do it.....

Of course that's before the legal challenges from both sides are sorted!

[Hibs Class]

Trump's playing this card because he knows he's likely to lose if the postal votes are properly counted. The trends tell him, or at least those who do the clever things for him are telling him, that.

They'd already devised the strategy that if and when he's projected at having a real chance of losing they claim victory and turn to the Supreme courts which have been carefully packed with hand picked judges.

If he gets there the question is are they judges or people who have to return the favour?

His conduct will see civil unrest and maybe even deaths but does he care in pursuit of the prize?

Sent from my SM-A750FN using Tapatalk

:agree: His disinterest in Covid deaths strongly suggests that any loss of life is a price worth paying to keep him in office.

[Bostonhibby]

:agree: The strategy was definitely planned long ago.

I think I posted a while ago, 73% of Dems were planning to vote by absentee ballot. 54% of Republicans were planning to vote in person. Trump knows that too. I actually think Trump thinks he’s lost.Me too, if he was out of sight the discussion wouldn't be happening.

For me count the votes and Biden is home.

Why are we having to say that? Count the votes, isn't that what elections are for?



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[The 90+2]

CNN is miles better than Sky or BBC.

[jonty]

How often have you seen an odds on favourite lose a race? The odds reflect the market rather than any great insight. I’m holding on to that. :greengrin

They did have Kanye West......

[danhibees1875]

That was between January and March, it's moved the other way since then.

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/winner

Then it went back again for the last couple of months...

Basically, to say "bookies are rarely wrong" on something they've flip flopped on all year just because they were right for parts of the year seems a bit off. :greengrin

[Hibrandenburg]

:agree: The strategy was definitely planned long ago.

I think I posted a while ago, 73% of Dems were planning to vote by absentee ballot. 54% of Republicans were planning to vote in person. Trump knows that too. I actually think Trump thinks he’s lost.

That's how I'm reading it. His clever people are telling him it's close but he's likely to lose. Time for plan B.

[lyonhibs]

Trump is going to get re-elected isn't he?

[degenerated]

Then it went back again for the last couple of months...

Basically, to say "bookies are rarely wrong" on something they've flip flopped on all year just because they were right for parts of the year seems a bit off. :greengrinNot according to the graph on odddschecker it didn't, they haven't flip flopped since Bidens odds went out in march

[makaveli1875]

Trump is going to get re-elected isn't he?

Of course he is. Biden can hold his head high though he done better than Hillary.

[Santa Cruz]

CNN is miles better than Sky or BBC.

Agreed.

[Vault Boy]

CNN is miles better than Sky or BBC.

It is rated significantly worse than both by independent fact checkers and bias watchdogs. Their website is mostly fine, their TV channel, not so much

[Bostonhibby]

Trump is going to get re-elected isn't he?If you mean as a result of him winning a democratic election probably not, if you mean by a manipulation of the process to ensure he retains power, absolutely he has a chance.


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[Santa Cruz]

Trump is going to get re-elected isn't he?

I can't make my mind up. It looks like it, but I think he's genuinely worried to be banging on about Supreme Courts and I'm wondering if he knows something.

[Gloucester Hibs]

Not according to the graph on odddschecker it didn't, they haven't flip flopped since Bidens odds went out in march

Biden was strong odds-on with bookies this past 3-4 weeks and as recently as yesterday, could get 2/1 on Trump yesterday morning.

[Lee Marvin]

Been up since 4am - what a night!

It really is too early too call just now and is effectively a toss up. Both candidates have reasonable paths to victory and it could literally come down to one of the congressional electoral college points - which Biden just took from Trump in Nebraska.

However, even if Biden wins the electoral college vote, there is a feeling among those on the left that they have lost the 'moral vote' that they had all hoped for (and which the polls predicted). Imagine living in a country where 50% of people are actually in a political cult, which is what Trump has now effectively made the republican party. This isn't even about left and right anymore, its far bigger than that IMO. Dark dark times!!

[Sylar]

Almost all news sites have Trump leading by a large margin in Penn., Georgia and Wisconsin. I'm not confident he's losing this.

4 more years of anguish, death, bigotry, economic destruction and environmental degradation.

[JimBHibees]

****!

But ...

The NY Times is still projecting a tight Biden win in Georgia. He should win Nevada, he’s still favourite for Wisconsin and Michigan.

I think Biden might just do it without Penn?

Georgia is huge with many votes still to come in from urban democratic areas. Very very close but also think Trump will nick it.

Coverage on CNN is very good much more detail into specific states and areas.
Wisconsin still close also one of the key areas only 49% vote in very much democratic

[hibsbollah]

Me too, if he was out of sight the discussion wouldn't be happening.

For me count the votes and Biden is home.

Why are we having to say that? Count the votes, isn't that what elections are for?



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:faf: Yes I was talking to mrs bollah earlier, we were very much giving it; ‘What do you think, you think all the votes will be counted? You think He will let the postal ballots be counted ?’ And then it hit us how ridiculous the question even is, or should be.

[The 90+2]

It is rated significantly worse than both by independent fact checkers and bias watchdogs. Their website is mostly fine, their TV channel, not so much

Just talking about the in depth reporting at the moment mate. You’ll need a coffee to keep up though. 😄

[danhibees1875]

Not according to the graph on odddschecker it didn't, they haven't flip flopped since Bidens odds went out in march

Sorry, I misread your graph and have confused myself.

I thought Biden has been odds on for the last few months and I think that's what your graph shows too.

Trump was favourite at the starts of the year, it switched to Biden in June and it has now went back to trump.

[Ozyhibby]

I'm watching CNN and they are reticent about calling yet, let's hope it comes true - I'm missing the UK tradition of the "returning officer" and the official count notification :greengrin ... think Trump has called it for himself, isn't that what Putin and the Chinese leader normally do?

100 million non voters stateside - now that is a problem that needs addressing ....

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201104/a068d41f54d4b4fa9442b98da7d26dbb.jpg

Yip. We could show them a thing or two about how to do a dignified election.[emoji23]


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[The 90+2]

Trumps now 1/3 to win. They won’t get it this wrong now tbh.

[JimBHibees]

CNN is miles better than Sky or BBC.

Absolutely very good coverage

[Vault Boy]

I think Biden will still have the edge, but my word how tight is that?

To have voted for Donald Trump once as some kind of desperate rejection of the perceived establishment voices, in a kind of emotive plea for the unheard working class is almost understandable. Deeply misguided, but perhaps something that resembles a complete thought or sincerely held position.

However, to vote for him again... In the wake of the last 4 years, staring into the abyss of needless loss of life, widening societal schisms, racial tension, recession, and anti-scientific dogma - that's ****ing unforgivable. What a deeply delusional, stubborn, hate-filled and ignorant electorate. A genuinely irredeemable demographic of voters who deserve the **** sandwich they may well be forced to swallow, they bloody ordered it.

[Hibrandenburg]

Trumps now 1/3 to win. They won’t get it this wrong now tbh.

Or they're offering cash out on Biden to cut their losses.

[Scott Allan Key]

He also knows the absentee ballots, which some states haven’t counted yet, will be majority Democrat. He knows the analytics better than anyone else.You could see in his face that when he declared victory, that he was actually very angry. He knows he will probably lose fair and square as other votes are tallied in rust belt and Georgia. If he'd really been confident in winning he wouldn't have been so clearly upset.

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[Scorrie]

Wisconsin is very close. Democrats think they may have just edged it according to the Guardian

[The 90+2]

Wisconsin Coming up in the next few mins

[Vault Boy]

Just talking about the in depth reporting at the moment mate. You’ll need a coffee to keep up though. 😄

That's absolutely fair, hopefully you continue to enjoy it. Their election night coverage might well be throughly fair too, I don't know.

I posted about the fact check/bias analysis as I think it's always important to keep news outlets in check. So long as folk know what they're watching has a propensity for certain bias or for omitting pieces of information, then they can account for it.

I think private, televised news will always run into issues here, as they're upholding a 24 hr cycle whilst also trying to hit ratings targets. CNN is certainly preferable to Fox. PBS is preferable to CNN, so on and so forth.

[The 90+2]

Or they're offering cash out on Biden to cut their losses.

Possibly but I think it reflects the betting they have on all the states too. If Wisconsin goes red then they have it spot on.

[The 90+2]

That's absolutely fair, hopefully you continue to enjoy it. Their election night coverage might well be throughly fair too, I don't know.

I posted about the fact check/bias analysis as I think it's always important to keep news outlets in check. So long as folk know what they're watching has a propensity for certain bias or for omitting pieces of information, then they can account for it.

I think private, televised news will always run into issues here, as they're upholding a 24 hr cycle whilst also trying to hit ratings targets. CNN is certainly preferable to Fox. PBS is preferable to CNN, so on and so forth.

I completely agree 👌

[Hibrandenburg]

Absolutely very good coverage

Pop over to Fox for some balance.

It might be prejudice on my part, I honestly can't count that out, but every interview I see with Trump supporters is with either:

Religious nutters
Poorly educated people
Right wing nutters whose eyes are too close together
People with one eyebrow
Sleazy car salesmen types
The hard of thinking

[calumhibee1]

I think Biden will still have the edge, but my word how tight is that?

To have voted for Donald Trump once as some kind of desperate rejection of the perceived establishment voices, in a kind of emotive plea for the unheard working class is almost understandable. Deeply misguided, but perhaps something that resembles a complete thought or sincerely held position.

However, to vote for him again... In the wake of the last 4 years, staring into the abyss of needless loss of life, widening societal schisms, racial tension, recession, and anti-scientific dogma - that's ****ing unforgivable. What a deeply delusional, stubborn, hate-filled and ignorant electorate. A genuinely irredeemable demographic of voters who deserve the **** sandwich they may well be forced to swallow, they bloody ordered it.

Agree with your second paragraph however, your third paragraph, the electoral college system is so unique that I also feel sorry for Americans whilst also feeling the same as you, I can’t make up my mind. For the second election in a row I reckon the candidate with more votes isn’t going to be elected. I get the logic behind the electoral college but the fact that it looks like America is going to get a president who has received less votes for 8 years is mad.

[CapitalGreen]

Possibly but I think it reflects the betting they have on all the states too. If Wisconsin goes red then they have it spot on.

Biden now leading slightly in WI

[cabbageandribs1875]

Biden picks up another 4 seats for Hawaii

[Vault Boy]

Agree with your second paragraph however, your third paragraph, the electoral college system is so unique that I also feel sorry for Americans whilst also feeling the same as you, I can’t make up my mind. For the second election in a row I reckon the candidate with more votes isn’t going to be elected. I get the logic behind the electoral college but the fact that it looks like America is going to get a president who has received less votes for 8 years is mad.

I know what you mean. To be clear, my anger is with the ignorance of those still voting for Trump, which is less than half of the electorate of course. I also feel sorry for the majority of Americans who don't support him, but are faced with the very real prospect of another 4 years.

Here's hoping the postal votes are skewered as heavily in Biden's favour as we think. 🤞

[Sir David Gray]

Biden leading in Wisconsin.

[The 90+2]

Biden leads Wisconsin

[weecounty hibby]

Where does that put him?? I can't take this🤯

[cabbageandribs1875]

i reckon biden is just going to need 19 seats after he gets the 10 seats for wisconsin

pennsylvania has 20 seats

[Ozyhibby]

i reckon biden is just going to need 19 seats after he gets the 10 seats for wisconsin

Nevada and Michigan would get him over the line.


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[Pretty Boy]

A few sources starting to report Nevada, Arizona and Wisconsin for Biden. Biden also edging Maine which was a split state last time around. Georgia and North Carolina highly likely to go to Trump as is Michigan. Penn looks too close to call.

[Since90+2]

The knowledge this guy has on CNN about county voting is unbelievable.

[jonty]

Bernie called it
https://t.co/9uBn1Sm8xa

[stokesmessiah]

The knowledge this guy has on CNN about county voting is unbelievable.

I have been watching it all night and honestly they have been brilliant. I know they are getting fed info as well but they know their stuff.

[cabbageandribs1875]

Nevada and Michigan would get him over the line.


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i've already included 6 for nevada and the 11 for arizona in my calculations

[Since90+2]

i've already included 6 for nevada and the 11 for arizona in my calculations

Who are you thinking is going to win?

[Ozyhibby]

The knowledge this guy has on CNN about county voting is unbelievable.

The guy on last night, John King, was the same. Their coverage of the numbers is second to none.


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[cabbageandribs1875]

Who are you thinking is going to win?



the one i've thought all along would win...biden, but i'm getting too far ahead for some reason i keep thinking it's first to 270 wins �� but i've not had any sleep for over 24 hours :(

[Since90+2]

the one i've thought all along would win...biden

Let's hope so.

Unfortunately I think we will see substantial violence now though thanks to Trump's message earlier.

[McSwanky]

Massive swings in the last hour on the Betfair exchange. Biden is now slight favourite......

Edit: aaand it's bounced back up again. But it is definitely looking more promising than when I woke up.

[Gloucester Hibs]

Bet365 have it 50/50 now!

[cabbageandribs1875]

Let's hope so.

Unfortunately I think we will see substantial violence now though thanks to Trump's message earlier.

tbf we would have had lots of violence even had trump won like we saw in 2016

[Hibrandenburg]

Bernie called it
https://t.co/9uBn1Sm8xa

Yep, he was bang on the money. But all that shows is that he and his Marxist comrades have been planning this election fraud for a long time. :wink:

[Bristolhibby]

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1323855244267294721?s=21

Very interesting.

These Milwaukee numbers could be decisive.

J

Edit, also Green Bay.

[The 90+2]

Bernie called it
https://t.co/9uBn1Sm8xa

He should be president.