Apologies for another thread but after last night's results be interesting to see whether people think it will actually happen.
Will we leave on the 31st October?
Printable View
Apologies for another thread but after last night's results be interesting to see whether people think it will actually happen.
Will we leave on the 31st October?
No we wont . Maybe the politicians can learn something from this . If they want to change the status quo on a big issue like this then a clear majority is required at the polls , 60% required to win or something along those lines .
Democracy doesn't work on 60%. In fact, it completely undermines it.Quote:
Originally Posted by makaveli1875
Democracy is falling apart on 52% . If 1 side had got 60% we wouldnt be having these arguments , it would be clear cut and decisive .Quote:
Originally Posted by Fife-Hibee
Don't know yet. Too early to say whether Farageism has peaked. Despite more people having voted anti-Brexit than pro-Brexit, Brexit Ultras like Redwood are describing last week's vote as a 'third vote to leave'.
If we do leave on October 31, the UK will start to break up imo. Ireland first, then Scotland.
The issue isn't the percentage of the result. It's the details behind what the result actually meant. Even if leave had won by 70%+ the same issues would still be apparent. There was no clear information on what "leave" actually meant.Quote:
Originally Posted by makaveli1875
heres the dictionary definition of leave incase your in any doubtQuote:
Originally Posted by Fife-Hibee
"she left London on June 6"
synonyms: depart from, go away from, go from, withdraw from, retire from, take oneself off from, exit from
Because it's that simple isn't it? "Leave means Leave" right? We just simply "leave". Never mind the details behind how we do that in a sensible manner, or the vision for our future relationships with Europe and the rest of the world. Nope, we just "leave". :rolleyes:Quote:
Originally Posted by makaveli1875
You should be in the audience for the next #BBCQTQuote:
Originally Posted by makaveli1875
And the thing the UK was to "depart from, go away from, go from, withdraw from, retire from, take oneself off from, exit from" was membership of the EU. The government has negotiated something that clearly falls within that definition and the Leavers don't accept it as leaving. So **** them, call the whole nonsense off and move on.Quote:
Originally Posted by makaveli1875
Couldnt think of many worse ways to spend an evening .Quote:
Originally Posted by grunt
The remainers dont accept it either , if they did the issue would be settled by nowQuote:
Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens
Almost all the Remainers in the Tory party did. It's Tory legislation to enact a Tory negotiated deal brought forward by a Tory government. If the Tories can't/won't deliver it then it's got **** all to do with anyone else. Hell mend them.Quote:
Originally Posted by makaveli1875
Democracy isn't about accepting results. In fact, the exact opposite is true. It's the freedom to express one's views, even if they're in a minority. Remainers were never going to stop being remainers after the result. Just as indy supporters in Scotland were never going to stop being indy supporters in Scotland after the result. An open democracy allows for that.Quote:
Originally Posted by makaveli1875
I think we’ll leave with no deal at the end of October. There will be an independence referendum soon after and Scotland will leave the UK.
It looks like compromise is well and truly dead.
So I think it'll play out like this:
- The Tories will have a renegotiate-or-no-deal leader in a few weeks.
- There'll be no renegotiation from the EU side so presumably they'll have to try for No Deal.
- No Deal still unlikely to get through with parliament's consent.
- I think there are enough non-lunatic Tories who will threaten to collapse the government.
Which leaves:
- a general election with the Tories for No deal and Labour/Lib/SNP for Remain
The fly in the ointment is old fascist Farage. He might be persuaded to stand down his mob if the new Tory leader commits to no deal (and would probably have to be offered a peerage or something as well :rolleyes:). If he doesn't, then a GE will be extremely hard for the Tories to win. In that circumstance it's just about conceivable there could be a No Deal vs Remain ref2. Brexit death match!
Tories will have a new leader who will promise to "get tough" with the EU and get an improved deal.
Leader will attempt, and fail, to renegotiate deal.
Not sure if there will be a General Election at that point. If there is, victory is there and waiting for the Labour Party campaigning on a remain vote and the hard Brexit we all dread may be averted. If their numpty in charge cannot see what is right in front of him (which he might not) then god knows what might happen.
I don't think he'll get it and I think a hard Brexit is almost inevitable.
Scotland won't be allowed another referendum for at least a decade and frustration will rise.
The rest of the UK will get poorer post-Brexit, look for someone else to blame and notice that Scotland is a significant drain on their resources as our economy struggles without free movement within the EU.
Scotland will remain dependent for about another 10-15 years until we become a serious drain financially and emotionally on the UK and English anger has risen further, stoked by Farage in his next project.
We have another referendum.
The risks over using the pound/ bawbee/ euro become a risk worth taking and we become independent.
Hopefully the EU is still in existence then.
Well you're a barrel of laughs today.Quote:
Originally Posted by Smartie
Scotland:
"I've hud enough.... turn off the English life support machine."
Do you disagree?Quote:
Originally Posted by grunt
It's not a case of agreeing or disagreeing. I just think it's a very depressing outlook.Quote:
Originally Posted by Smartie
It really is.Quote:
Originally Posted by grunt
I am genuinely concerned about the outlook for Scotland over the next decade or so and what any sort of Brexit might mean for us here.
Not really true that though. Labour and Tory official policy is to support Brexit.Quote:
Originally Posted by lapsedhibee
Corbyn is still sitting on the fence this morning. Labour members should be up in arms to get him booted out.
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Grauniad
:faf:
Jez must have sore baws stradding his very clear policy
Slightly o/t but when did it become a thing for politicians to defend notoriously unclear policy by banging on about how clear it is? Hopefully with May gone we are past peak-clarity. :rolleyes:Quote:
Originally Posted by Jack Hackett
True. But their official policy was to support Brexit in the 2017 general election, leading to claims that because 82% voted for them, 82% want Brexit, claims which (I believe) are wholly false. So official policy is not a good knockdown indicator of the true position.Quote:
Originally Posted by GlesgaeHibby
Amen to that.Quote:
Corbyn is still sitting on the fence this morning. Labour members should be up in arms to get him booted out.
Whenever it started, she's clearly (:greengrin) up there with the most repetitive... and that's just up to January :rolleyes:Quote:
Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens
Attachment 22074
... and that's just in Parliament
One of my very biggest pet hates with politicians (I have many) The word "clear" was never mentioned until about 15 years ago (I'm getting on and my memory may be playing tricks) when one bright spark PR person came up with the idea to insert the word into every interview so the thick public would believe what they were being told. As happens with buzz words in politics they've all latched onto it and it now just sounds utterly ridiculous. Another is "kick the can down the road" aaaarrgghhh!!Quote:
Originally Posted by Jack Hackett
Get off the fence Corbyn or get out.
Unbelievable he's still doing this. Surely the grassroots members will push for a change now.
What is his position (daft question I know!)?Quote:
Originally Posted by Diclonius
As far as I can tell it’s that he still backs Brexit but will only call a second ref on a revised deal and only if that’s after a GE?
But he has no position on what happens without a GE?
He's previously said that if he can't get the deal Labour wants or a GE then he'll back a second ref, as that's the party policy.Quote:
Originally Posted by RyeSloan
His position is about as clear as mud.Quote:
Originally Posted by RyeSloan
Hmm OK but neither of those things have happened and seem rather unlikely to do basically he has no position?Quote:
Originally Posted by lapsedhibee
Ach I give up [emoji2957]
He's actively doing his best to avoid becoming the next PM. As i've said before, he doesn't want to be in a position where he actually has to impliment what he preaches from the side lines.Quote:
Originally Posted by RyeSloan
He's been perfectly clear! Honestly, some people ...Quote:
Originally Posted by RyeSloan
He wants a GE and a Labour Brexit but he supports a public vote (without specifying any of the options) being kept on the table to stop no deal or a "bad Tory" Brexit.
There, couldn't be clearer! :agree:
It looks like Lab are inching towards ref2
Corbyn in email to Lab MPs leaked to Sky -McDonnell on camera to Sky -Quote:
"the deadlock in Parliament can now only be broken by the issue going back to the people through a general election or a public vote. We are ready to support a public vote on any deal"
Quote:
"Of course we want a GE highly unlikely Tories will go for that now after the results last night. Turkeys don’t vote for Xmas. Our only option now is go back to the people in a referendum and that is the position we’re in now"
That’s clarified nicely thanks [emoji2957]Quote:
Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens
My thoughts are a 'No Deal' Tory leader is now a certainty.
Parliament will never endorse 'No Deal' but as its the default position I'd expect whoever the next PM is will take us to the cliff edge.
Will parliament Revoke rather than see that happen? No idea but a compromise such as a 2nd Referendum looks far off IMO.
Remain vs No Deal. I'm just going to take the day off for the day after that one cause there's no way I'd be sleeping.Quote:
Originally Posted by BroxburnHibee
If we actually vote for no deal then goodnight UK, you're done.
I'm in no way a fan of a no deal Brexit but I've always thought that it would be preferable to embrace it (tackle the problems head on, pursue whichever opportunities it may present) and be led by people who 100% believe in it than to go for some sort of halfway fudge that is vastly inferior to what we already have, doesn't please the other side. doesn't afford us any opportunity and doesn't actually satisfy anyone.Quote:
Originally Posted by Diclonius
The problem is that those at the front leading the fight for Brexit want nothing to do with the actual nitty gritty that involves making it a success.Quote:
Originally Posted by Smartie
I would have to say that Ozyhibby called it right a while back.
In the circumstances we are in, any new Tory leader almost certainly is forced into a GE whether they want it or not.
Labour, under Yvette Cooper, standing on a slate of national unity to prevent Brexit and essentially forcing the Lib Dems and Greens to sign up formally or informally, trumps the Leave vote, especially when the Tories are riven. I think the only way they can appease all shades of pro-Leave is through someone like Raab, which automatically loses them their Remain voters and maybe some of the soft leavers. Anyone else is spinning plates and will lose votes to Farage in one direction and the Lib Dem’s in the other.
With Cable standing down, there is a big opportunity for Jo Swinson to propel herself forward. I think Ed Davey is tarnished more by association with the Coalition. Interesting times.
EDIT: and meant to add, Labour need to do the sensible thing and bin Jeremy and elect someone who is competent and electable, i.e. Yvonne Cooper
I still can’t see there being a general election, the results from last night will have terrified the tories, it would be political suicide. We live in strange times though and absolutely nothing can be ruled in or out.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mibbes Aye
If it looks like heading for no deal then there are enough Tory remainers willing to vote against the govt in a no confidence motion. A GE may not be what they want but they may not be able to avoid it if they go for no deal. If Johnson gets in I can see him trying to sell something very like May’s deal because he won’t want to be a PM that lasts only a couple of months.Quote:
Originally Posted by lord bunberry
Ask me tomorrow and I’ll tell you something else.[emoji23] It’s impossible to tell what’s going to happen. There are so many moving parts in this.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
When Thatcher was deposed as leader of the Tories, John Major was appointed as a patsy because of the expectation that Labour would win the next GE. Of course, Sheffield and "Well, all right" etc saw to it that Major did win, but I have a niggling thought that something similar might happen this time.
Maybe Fife-Hibees' fondness of all things conspiratorial has permeated my brain :wink: but I have a niggling idea that a cunning plan may be about to unfold.
Could the Tories appoint a sacrificial dark horse as PM who would call, and lose, a GE so that Labour can pull the plug on Brexit and then suffer the consequences if future polls?
Too much tin foil?
That involves politicians losing their jobs, including Johnson. Unlikely. And it’s unlikely that is why Major won as well.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hibbyradge
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I know it's unlikely, but the Tories will be expecting to lose seats next time out anyway, and they've still got Brexit to deal with.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ozyhibby
May got the top job because no-one else wanted to touch Brexit. That particular poisoned chalice hasn't gone away and there's a lot more political blood to be spilled before it does.
The temptation to pass the responsibility to Labour must be great and the people who really control the Tory party are calculating strategists. A few casualties now might be a price worth paying in the longer term.
And here's the thing about conspiracy theories. The more you go down the rabbit hole, the more plausible the theory gets.
I've fair convinced myself. :hilarious
I think may was supposed to be that very patsy but she ended up embroiled in some weird half in half out deal that suited very few of the tory half wits.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hibbyradge
Every party has folk devising deep thinker stratagem with worst case scenarios part of any planning.
Jeremy decided sitting on the fence was our plan for now which wasn't the worst by any means. Gives us scope for whatever materialises abeit not everyone agrees.
Jeremy fence sitting has delivered the worst election results for his party ever at a time when the Tories fared even worse.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tornadoes70
I don't know whether to admire your loyalty or pity your stubborn refusal to recognise the truth.
If there’s a general election after a no confidence vote, who would be speaking and negotiating for the country? Is it not possible that we could fall out with no deal due to us running out of time to get a new government elected? I’m not old enough to remember what happened the last time there was a no confidence vote, so I’ve genuinely no idea.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ozyhibby
If a general election were to be called Jeremy would be the next PM. I'm in no doubt whatsoever about that sooner or later.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hibbyradge
That’s the 4th set of elections he has lost as party leader including losing the Theresa May in a GE. And still the Labour Party keep him. Seems they would rather be a party of protest rather than power. He is unelectable.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hibbyradge
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
He’s already lost one and that was to Theresa May ffs.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tornadoes70
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Nigel.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tornadoes70
What is that confidence based on? The voting public don’t seem to see the long game he is playing.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tornadoes70
I can see the parallels between Corbyn & Arsene Wenger in the second half of his time at Arsenal. Wenger didn’t move with the times, stuck rigidly to his footballing philosophy and was left behind as a dinosaur when football evolved and he didn’t. Becoming not relevant when it came to winning and competing for the big trophies.
Using football analogies on a politics thread, wow, HR will be along any minute taking issue that we're not proper debaters :greengrin.Quote:
Originally Posted by The Modfather
Correct, Jeremy is traditional Labour and is very strong on delivering public services and an economy that works for the many not the few.
Separatism would deliver massive cuts to public services while devastating the Scottish economy for some time thereafter and who knows when the economy would pick up again. The poorest in Scotland would be hardest hit as those with money could either move physically or move their money to safer havens. If that doesn't matter to you by all means carry on regardless.
This, especially if Boris becomes PMQuote:
Originally Posted by lord bunberry
Your thoughts on Scottish Independence are well noted on here, but unless you’re saying he will win a general election because Scottish independence is bad, it’s of no relevance to why he would win a general election.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tornadoes70
I was curious why the trend is for Labour to get fewer and fewer votes but you’re still confident he would win a general election? What would make the masses who aren’t voting for a Labour now suddenly vote for him to become the next PM?
Now you're starting to get it. :wink:Quote:
Originally Posted by Hibbyradge
However, I don't see Labour pulling the plug on Brexit. Both parties don't want to be the next party in government to deal with any of this mess. It's no coincidence that the popularity of both parties are at rock bottom, neither wants to form the next government. It's a poisoned chalice and they both know it.
I think that might be true if they thought Labour had what they would consider a sensible Blairite in charge. They are petrified of Corbyn and McDonnell though. Not in electoral terms, but what they might do if they get into power.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hibbyradge
It's not like you to miss the point, but I'll exclude you from my generalisation about debaters.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tornadoes70
You're clearly a Master.
The only thing certain about that election is that the vast majority of the electorate exercised their democratic choice to stay at home and have nothing to do with it.I read someone in the Scottish Government saying Scotland has spoken and the SNP has shown the way-16% of the electorate-wow.
Since when did we start counting the votes of people who didn’t vote? And specifically counting them for one side or the other? If you don’t vote it doesn’t matter what you think.Quote:
Originally Posted by ancient hibee
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
So much for Scotland was engaged in politics though?Quote:
Originally Posted by Ozyhibby
It was actually less than 15% of eligible voters that voted SNP, but Scotland has spoken, all 15% of them.
That's a pretty good sample though.Quote:
Originally Posted by James310
If anything, this strengthens the argument for mandatory voting laws. Politicians couldn't wriggle out of the "oh but it's not a representative sample" argument any more.Quote:
Originally Posted by James310
Of course, whilst the current government is in power this won't happen, because the demographics most likely to vote are on the whole partisan voters for them.
John Bercow on whether parliament has a means to stop no deal:
Quote:
"The House will have its say. The idea that Parliament is going to be evacuated from the centre stage of debate on Brexit is unimaginable. It is simply unimaginable."
I like this guy. Looking forward to his autobiographyQuote:
Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens
Oh, so we are counting people who don’t vote for your side now. [emoji23] I suppose when you poll 12% or less you have to try something.Quote:
Originally Posted by James310
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Updated Tory figure for today's new Holy Ground reality - 4.7% :wink:Quote:
Originally Posted by Ozyhibby
A tory remainer mp on the radio yesterday said he would not vote with a vote of no confidence even if it meant leaving with no deal, as anything was better for the UK than a Corbyn government. Faced with losing his job, a politician will do anything he can to stay on the gravy train. People imagining that a no deal scenario would be voted down by conservatives have to realise that this would mean relying on a tory with a conscience - a very rare breed indeed.
All parties obviously had low %s of eligible voters when turnout was so low, but I keep hearing how Scotland is engaged with politics etc when that clearly is not the case. If the 'winning' party has less than 15% of the eligibile votes then I am not sure we can read too much into it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ozyhibby
Crikey. Traditionally the turnout is crap for European elections, but any excuse to trash the SNP eh?Quote:
Originally Posted by James310
And even with a low turnout, the results give a more accurate representation of the moood of the country than any opinion poll and quite clearly the majority in Scotland support staying in the EU and have no faith in neither Labour nor the Tories.
Perhaps these might be useful ...Quote:
Originally Posted by Peevemor
https://c2.staticflickr.com/4/3487/4...f4a9f33406.jpg
Well the mood of the nation suggests Indy has not moved at all since 2014. Even after Nicola Sturgeon saying vote for the SNP in these elections even if you are against Indy. So despite the absolute shambles of the last few years no further forward.Quote:
Originally Posted by Peevemor
That's your take on it, as long as it helps you feel better.Quote:
Originally Posted by James310
What's your take?Quote:
Originally Posted by Peevemor
Pity he wasn't also asked what he would do if there was no chance of a Corbyn government, ie if Labour had a proper leader in place.Quote:
Originally Posted by HappyAsHellas
… not sure they would, as they are - or are about to be - illegal here.Quote:
Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens
Sheesh! Mr Picky :rolleyes:Quote:
Originally Posted by lapsedhibee
Ok, just for you ...
https://img.tesco.com/Groceries/pi/6...ot_540x540.jpg
That's more like it.Quote:
Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens
Mon Green.
For me it's pretty clear that the Scottish electorate are losing any little faith they had left in the big 2 Westminster parties. The reasons are numerous and obvious, but above all I think the total disregard and lack of respect shown by Corbyn, May et al toward the will of the majority of Scots has come back to bite their bums.Quote:
Originally Posted by James310
Do you think the vote shows an increased appetite for Indy as the SNP are today claiming? I don't see that myself. Ian Blackford saying the result has 'cemented' the case for IndyRef2 but why?Quote:
Originally Posted by Peevemor
You're making a glaring error equating the EU result to how an Indy Ref would pan out. It suits the "nothing has changed, no point in having one" narrative.Quote:
Originally Posted by James310
It's not me saying it 'cements' the requirement for IndyRef2 though, it's Ian Blackford.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fife-Hibee
Politicians, including those of the SNP, will spin any result to their advantage. It's up to the voting public to remain as informed as possible.Quote:
Originally Posted by James310
The European elections can only be compared with the results of previous European elections.
For example, I voted Green (there's no SNP in Brittany), but I wouldn't necessarily do so in a national election.
In any case, the pro-indy parties came out on top of those who voted. Of course the SNP are going to milk that.
IndyRef2 was already cemented when the SNP went back to Westminster with a majority of seats with a referendum commitment in their manifesto. The European election simply shows the stark difference in the directions Scotland and rUK are taking.Quote:
Originally Posted by James310
I intended this thread to be a discussion on the 31/10 deadline and the likelihood of it happening.
Vanishingly unlikely I think.Quote:
Originally Posted by BroxburnHibee
He's the slightly vague hesitant guy with the beard who normally sits somewhere near Dianne Abbott.Quote:
Originally Posted by RyeSloan
Sadly the current manifestation of the party I've always supported is rudderless, leaderless and lost touch with a fair percentage of it's natural support who are not part of the activist movement steering it down a path of irrelevance to everyone but themselves.
Sent from my SM-A750FN using Tapatalk
As you clearly weren’t able to understand my original post I’ll try again.I wasn’tQuote:
Originally Posted by Ozyhibby
apportioning the votes of those who didn’t vote but merely pointing out that the vast majority didn’t choose to vote at all and that therefore the votes for any party were a minuscule part of the electorate and to extrapolate from that any kind of overall view was silly.
Good luck with that. Unless you ban him from the thread, our 310 chum will turn every discussion into one about how bad the SNP and Nicola Sturgeon are.Quote:
Originally Posted by BroxburnHibee
On topic, here's a nice positive thread from twitter.
https://twitter.com/staedtler/status...704101888?s=21
You are a charmer, do you live up to your name?Quote:
Originally Posted by grunt
How silly of me to post about the EU elections on a Brexit thread, of course they are totally unrelated. And again about IndyRef2 when the leader of the SNP also commented on it and linked it to Brexit.
I would say you turn everything into a SNP love in but actually I have no clue what you post so it must be pretty irrelevant.
Why don't you just admit that you would never ever back the independence of the country you live in under any circumstance?Quote:
Originally Posted by James310
Trident could go off tomorrow, taking out half of Scotland and you would be on here giving us all a speech on how it brings us all closer together.
No I wouldn't, I would be dead.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fife-Hibee
Oh well. At least you won't have to experience the sheer horrors of a country making it's own choices.Quote:
Originally Posted by James310
He doesn’t think Scotland is or should be a country. It’s a completely different mindset.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fife-Hibee
Quote:
Originally Posted by ancient hibee
Ain't democracy a bitch
Interesting and slightly concerning articleQuote:
Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens
https://www.instituteforgovernment.o...-stopped-mps-0
Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk
In the mad political world at present, I actually found myself agreeing with Malcolm Rifkind who was on the BBC News Channel earlier today. He was making the point that as the Conservative Partly had failed to agree Brexit and then Parliament had failed to agree Brexit then there must be a second vote. He made it clear he was speaking as someone who had been very much against a second vote but as both his own party and Parliament had made a complete arse of things, this was the only answer. If someone like him is supporting a second referendum, the tide is definitely turning. I therefore voted that we would not leave on 31.10.19.