Brexit Referendum

[NYHibby]

True but that's based on uncertainty rather than a rational analysis of a hypothetical post-Brexit economic scenario. If it's Brexit on Friday then a sell off on the markets is a given but the long term picture is far harder (impossible) to get a good handle on. Economic forecasting is a mug's game at the best of times.

While I agree with your general point about uncertainty about longer term predictions, your post is a straw man argument.

Soros was commenting on the exchanage rate over the near future. My posts were about the exchange rates relevant to holidays this summer. No view was expressed on the longer term.

[JeMeSouviens]

While I agree with your general point about uncertainty about longer term predictions, your post is a straw man argument.

Soros was commenting on the exchanage rate over the near future. My posts were about the exchange rates relevant to holidays this summer. No view was expressed on the longer term.

Agree re your posts but the original article quoted by Hibbyradge is entitled "EU referendum: Soros warns of Brexit threat to pound and jobs".

[JeMeSouviens]

It's a good question, Cyprus will no doubt be a huge stumbling block and Turkey have already indicated they've rather stay out of the EU than rush to an unsatisfactory conclusion to the Cyprus question (well, unsatisfactory to them).

Anyway out of 35 chapters to be fully signed into to gain EU accession, they've reached 1. Turkey joining the EU is a long way off despite work being going on for over a decade to get there (and should indicate how long it might take an iScotland to join from outside). Despite the Brexiteers best scaremongering we're years away from Turkey joining, when they do join it'll only be when they've satisfied all the prerequisites and even then every other member state has a veto (including us, and certainly Cyprus).

Austria, Sweden and Finland officially joined as new members on 1 Jan 1995, exactly 2 years after beginning negotiations. iScotland's membership could easily be continued seamlessly with what little negotiation necessary taking place in parallel with negotiations on leaving the UK.

[PeeJay]

Austria, Sweden and Finland officially joined as new members on 1 Jan 1995, exactly 2 years after beginning negotiations. iScotland's membership could easily be continued seamlessly with what little negotiation necessary taking place in parallel with negotiations on leaving the UK.

Won't an independent Scotland first be involved in negotiations with the UK before being in a position to conduct negotiations with the EU?

[JeMeSouviens]

Won't an independent Scotland first be involved in negotiations with the UK before being in a position to conduct negotiations with the EU?

Why? Assuming the UK is still in the EU when that happens it would be a lot simpler for all for Scotland's citizens to continue as EU citizens.

[Bristolhibby]

Why? Assuming the UK is still in the EU when that happens it would be a lot simpler for all for Scotland's citizens to continue as EU citizens.

This. Quick little trade off with the spectre of not getting into the EU removed, as we are already members.

Intreating dynamics at play.

J

[RyeSloan]

Then stop listening to the politicians and listen to the experts.

I've read many 'expert' opinions...but you have to discount those that are already part of the game. Lagarde and Carney are two that spring to mind. Then you have the 'experts' that seem to think that I should believe their crystal ball predictions, provided with a sense of certainty that can only make you laugh. From those that I do give some weight to it seems pretty clear that out would not be the disaster that Dave and co have painted and in would probably be OK as well...

So as I say in or out I honestly think it would make little difference...the pros and cons of both probably balance each other out to an extent although if I'm forced to call it one way I would suggest that the EU is not the force for good it's made out to be and ultimately the fact I believe being out would not actually be that detrimental and would at least give the opportunity for some new thinking then I'll probably be an out.

Then again as I'm very much for free movement of labour and think that is probably the EU's strongest positive so I might not be ;-)

[PeeJay]

Why? Assuming the UK is still in the EU when that happens it would be a lot simpler for all for Scotland's citizens to continue as EU citizens.

I was actually replying to a post that was replying to a post in which Scotland was "outside" the EU trying to get back in - so Scotland's citizen's couldn't continue to be in the EU as you suggest as the country would have left the EU!
A Scotland becoming independent while the UK is still in the EU is a different matter entirely, of course. Must admit I'm not sure there what the situation would then be ...

[High-On-Hibs]

The idiocy of the brexiters on channel 4 is deeply worrying. :no way:

[Hibs Class]

Watching the BBC debate, "Taking back control" is obviously the tagline that the leavers have had drummed into them, but they're using it so excessively that it's embarrassing.

[High-On-Hibs]

Watching the BBC debate, "Taking back control" is obviously the tagline that the leavers have had drummed into them, but they're using it so excessively that it's embarrassing.

They say it as if the control will be handed over to the public people and of course, the public are mindlessly lapping it up.

When Boris talks about taking back control, he means for himself when he becomes the next PM.

Just picture a world where Boris Johnson has unregulated political control over UK Policy and Donald Trump has full unregulated political control over the US.

It will more than likely be the end.

[s.a.m]

They say it as if the control will be handed over to the public people and of course, the public are mindlessly lapping it up.

When Boris talks about taking back control, he means for himself when he becomes the next PM.

Just picture a world where Boris Johnson has unregulated political control over UK Policy and Donald Trump has full unregulated political control over the US.

It will more than likely be the end.

:agree: The idea that Johnson, Gove, IDS, Farage etc...are remotely interested in social justice / workers' rights / the sovereignty of the British public is at best fanciful.

[RyeSloan]

They say it as if the control will be handed over to the public people and of course, the public are mindlessly lapping it up. When Boris talks about taking back control, he means for himself when he becomes the next PM. Just picture a world where Boris Johnson has unregulated political control over UK Policy and Donald Trump has full unregulated political control over the US. It will more than likely be the end.

Just how would either of those two end up with 'unregulated political control'?

Not that I support many or even any of their policies but some of the hyperbole is just silly. If Boris became PM he would be just that, the leader of a democratically elected governing party in the UK not a dictator with unregulated and unfettered power.

[High-On-Hibs]

Just how would either of those two end up with 'unregulated political control'?

Not that I support many or even any of their policies but some of the hyperbole is just silly. If Boris became PM he would be just that, the leader of a democratically elected governing party in the UK not a dictator with unregulated and unfettered power.

How can you be so sure? Does Boris strike you as someone who has ever considered an alternative opinion over his own in his life?

The man is a narrow minded moron. A dangerous one, but a moron non the less. The UK would quickly become a very dangerous place under his governance.

[HappyAsHellas]

Does that mean that Boris wants undemocratic control, just like the EU ? Why does he want out then?

[steakbake]

I'm going to call this as a narrow leave vote come Friday AM.

[Moulin Yarns]

Now, forget all the debates, this is the best analysis of the referendum

https://www.facebook.com/LastWeekTonight/?pnref=story

[Colr]

How can you be so sure? Does Boris strike you as someone who has ever considered an alternative opinion over his own in his life?

The man is a narrow minded moron. A dangerous one, but a moron non the less. The UK would quickly become a very dangerous place under his governance.

Boris has regained his reputation as the idiot savant of the Tory party and blown his leadership credentials nurtured in his time as Mayor of London.With Osborne holed below the water line and Cameron now v unpop, Teresa May is the only credible leadership candidate left, although Ruth Davidson needs to seriously consider a move to Westminster!!

[RyeSloan]

How can you be so sure? Does Boris strike you as someone who has ever considered an alternative opinion over his own in his life? The man is a narrow minded moron. A dangerous one, but a moron non the less. The UK would quickly become a very dangerous place under his governance.

Because there is zero evidence that Boris would overthrow the House of Commons and become some sort of dictator with unfettered power that you are suggesting.

Unregulated political power

U.K. would quickly become a very dangerous place

Total hyperbole based on nothing apart from your supposition that he doesn't consider alternative opinion.

[RyeSloan]

I'm going to call this as a narrow leave vote come Friday AM.

I think it will be a pretty comfortable remain vote as it strikes me that there is parallels with Indy where Yes made the most noise but deep down people were not prepared to risk the upheaval.

[Colr]

Haggis export to the US are not banned by the EU but by the US. Boris just makes stuff up based on a partial grasp of the facts.

[AndyM_1875]

I'm genuinely staggered at SNP and Labour voting friends and acquaintances who are saying they may vote Leave. On what planet do they think handing unfettered power to the likes of Gove, BoJo, the bull**** factory that is Priti Patel and Farage (soon to be Lord Farage if Leave wins) is going to be good for the progressive policies both parties have at heart. The UK will be handed over to the ultra right wing and you can say goodbye to workers rights and welcome to a long term recession and an irrelevant place in the world.

On the upside of a Leave win , my old mucker on here Mr Ronaldo7 will be delighted to hear me demanding IndyRef2 ASAP (Scotland out of the UK and back into Europe) because this for me will be the tipping point.:wink:

[RyeSloan]

I'm genuinely staggered at SNP and Labour voting friends and acquaintances who are saying they may vote Leave. On what planet do they think handing unfettered power to the likes of Gove, BoJo, the bull**** factory that is Priti Patel and Farage (soon to be Lord Farage if Leave wins) is going to be good for the progressive policies both parties have at heart. The UK will be handed over to the ultra right wing and you can say goodbye to workers rights and welcome to a long term recession and an irrelevant place in the world. On the upside of a Leave win , my old mucker on here Mr Ronaldo7 will be delighted to hear me demanding IndyRef2 ASAP (Scotland out of the UK and back into Europe) because this for me will be the tipping point.:wink:

Here we are again...now a leave vote is for 'unfettered power' to Boris and co.

I suppose at least these types of statements are showing up some real reasons why people want to stay in the EU, they see it as some sort of power balance to the UK government. Considering the rather limited ability to control that balance in terms of the heft and direction of the EU I find that a rather odd argument.

It might also be considered rather ironic when you think of the complaints about Scotland getting Tory governments they didn't vote for that we are now being told that power in Brussels is better than that voted for by the UK citizens in a general election.

[The_Todd]

I'm genuinely staggered at SNP and Labour voting friends and acquaintances who are saying they may vote Leave. On what planet do they think handing unfettered power to the likes of Gove, BoJo, the bull**** factory that is Priti Patel and Farage (soon to be Lord Farage if Leave wins) is going to be good for the progressive policies both parties have at heart. The UK will be handed over to the ultra right wing and you can say goodbye to workers rights and welcome to a long term recession and an irrelevant place in the world.

On the upside of a Leave win , my old mucker on here Mr Ronaldo7 will be delighted to hear me demanding IndyRef2 ASAP (Scotland out of the UK and back into Europe) because this for me will be the tipping point.:wink:

I'm not, really. Nationalism is nationalism. The more hard core Scottish Nationalists will loathe the EU as much as British Nationalists. In fact, the SNP supporters who are making contradictory statements about the UK and EU are the ones baffling me to be honest.

[The_Todd]

How can you be so sure? Does Boris strike you as someone who has ever considered an alternative opinion over his own in his life?

The man is a narrow minded moron. A dangerous one, but a moron non the less. The UK would quickly become a very dangerous place under his governance.

Given that the man has been both pro- and anti- EU within the last year, yes.

[CallumLaidlaw]

Well it is fair to say, I have bottled it :wink:

Able to get 1.277 euros to the pound today, so I have just taken it. Don't want to risk a drop on Friday. I go on holiday a week on Sunday.

[HappyAsHellas]

In the unlikely event of people voting to leave, I don't think it would be necessary for Boris to take the helm, and if he did I could see a vote of no confidence arising pretty quickly. The remain campaign have had all the big hitters on their side, desperate to keep their snouts in the trough and maintain the status quo. Obama telling us we'd be last in the line and other such drivel, Tories (yes tories) championing workers rights - it's enough to make you sick. As per indyref, we have the polls in the week running up suddenly going towards an out vote, a nice tactic by the pro media. Brexit has been forced into the immigration corner when it's about so much more than this. The constant lies from both sides is pathetic, but as ever it seems to me the biggest **** will win.

[Moulin Yarns]

This is a good story


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CleTqEmXIAAKWCs.jpg:large

[Beefster]

Well it is fair to say, I have bottled it :wink:

Able to get 1.277 euros to the pound today, so I have just taken it. Don't want to risk a drop on Friday. I go on holiday a week on Sunday.

I did the same a few weeks ago and bought my dollars when the pound dropped on the back of some poll.

[One Day Soon]

This is a good story


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CleTqEmXIAAKWCs.jpg:large


Shame it is completely made up though.

[One Day Soon]

I'm going to call this as a narrow leave vote come Friday AM.


I don't think so steak. Remain will poll somewhere around 54%/55%. Perhaps even higher. Keep your eyes on the betting exchanges, they give you the real picture unlike the polls.

[Moulin Yarns]

I don't think so steak. Remain will poll somewhere around 54%/55%. Perhaps even higher. Keep your eyes on the betting exchanges, they give you the real picture unlike the polls.

Listening to the radio this morning, William Hills are calling it, and a bookie is rarely wrong.

80% money on remain

[JeMeSouviens]

It certainly looks close, more or less level pegging in the polls. Maybe Remain very slightly ahead after Leave being a few points ahead last week.

If I was Leave I'd be worried about reversion to the status quo, if I was Remain I'd be worried about differential turnout. It's always the Tories & oldies that are most likely to get out and vote and they are the archetypal Leavers.

[High-On-Hibs]

The problem with the Brexit campaign is that they appear to be split on what will actually happen if the UK leaves the EU. On one hand you have the idiot racist Farage brigade that talks about reducing immigration by leaving the EU. On the other hand, you have the likes of Boris, who talk about implementing a point based system like in Australia, which actually attracts higher levels of immigration.

It seems people are voting out for a series of different reasons. Reasons that both sides can't be correct about, as they completely contradict one another.

What will actually happen if the UK leaves the EU? Does anyone really have a clue?

[Moulin Yarns]

The problem with the Brexit campaign is that they appear to be split on what will actually happen if the UK leaves the EU. On one hand you have the idiot racist Farage brigade that talks about reducing immigration by leaving the EU. On the other hand, you have the likes of Boris, who talk about implementing a point based system like in Australia, which actually attracts higher levels of immigration.

It seems people are voting out for a series of different reasons. Reasons that both sides can't be correct about, as they completely contradict one another.

What will actually happen if the UK leaves the EU? Does anyone really have a clue?


Neil Doncaster predicts Armageddon, oh wait, wrong subject.

[Moulin Yarns]

One man's answer to the lies in the EU debate

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/eu-referendum-brexit-immigration-what-it-means-facts-live-updates-newspaper-advert-leave-remain-a7095191.html

[KWJ]

The problem with the Brexit campaign is that they appear to be split on what will actually happen if the UK leaves the EU. On one hand you have the idiot racist Farage brigade that talks about reducing immigration by leaving the EU. On the other hand, you have the likes of Boris, who talk about implementing a point based system like in Australia, which actually attracts higher levels of immigration.

It seems people are voting out for a series of different reasons. Reasons that both sides can't be correct about, as they completely contradict one another.

What will actually happen if the UK leaves the EU? Does anyone really have a clue?

Not been listening to big Nige but I've definitely heard him talk about a points based Australian style system, even back in the leader debates for 2015 elections.

Thing is, we already have a similar thing for Non EU immigrants that limits those that can move to the UK to work. So should there be a leave vote there's not a great need to overhaul the system that's in place.

Personally I reckon that changes would have to be made to loosen the criteria should the UK population drop as EU would be immigrants that can no longer make the criteria while working age UK citizens, like myself, continue to move overseas in large numbers.

[Hibrandenburg]

The problem with the Brexit campaign is that they appear to be split on what will actually happen if the UK leaves the EU. On one hand you have the idiot racist Farage brigade that talks about reducing immigration by leaving the EU. On the other hand, you have the likes of Boris, who talk about implementing a point based system like in Australia, which actually attracts higher levels of immigration.

It seems people are voting out for a series of different reasons. Reasons that both sides can't be correct about, as they completely contradict one another.

What will actually happen if the UK leaves the EU? Does anyone really have a clue?

Anyone else old enough to remember when we were the economic migrants?

https://youtu.be/B9GN44g9dEs

[Pete]

There are politicians on the remain side who think immigration is an issue as they want to get it down to a specific net total.

When asked about how they will control it the only answer is:"leaving the EU is not the answer".

What is the answer then?

[Moulin Yarns]

There are politicians on the remain side who think immigration is an issue as they want to get it down to a specific net total.

When asked about how they will control it the only answer is:"leaving the EU is not the answer".

What is the answer then?

When you consider that the annual migration figures are0.5% of the population you have to wonder what the problem is.

[ronaldo7]

I'm genuinely staggered at SNP and Labour voting friends and acquaintances who are saying they may vote Leave. On what planet do they think handing unfettered power to the likes of Gove, BoJo, the bull**** factory that is Priti Patel and Farage (soon to be Lord Farage if Leave wins) is going to be good for the progressive policies both parties have at heart. The UK will be handed over to the ultra right wing and you can say goodbye to workers rights and welcome to a long term recession and an irrelevant place in the world.

On the upside of a Leave win , my old mucker on here Mr Ronaldo7 will be delighted to hear me demanding IndyRef2 ASAP (Scotland out of the UK and back into Europe) because this for me will be the tipping point.:wink:

Can I ask why you've mentioned me by name on a thread of 18 pages that I've not contributed to?

Admins:greengrin

[Pretty Boy]

I'm going to call this as a narrow leave vote come Friday AM.

I'm starting to fear the same.

[hibsbollah]

I'm going to call this as a narrow leave vote come Friday AM.

Nope. The 15% undecideds will come out for Stay and a sigh of relief can be blown.

[Hibbyradge]

Nope. The 15% undecideds will come out for Stay and a sigh of relief can be blown.

I do hope you're right.

[Holmesdale Hibs]

The problem with the Brexit campaign is that they appear to be split on what will actually happen if the UK leaves the EU. On one hand you have the idiot racist Farage brigade that talks about reducing immigration by leaving the EU. On the other hand, you have the likes of Boris, who talk about implementing a point based system like in Australia, which actually attracts higher levels of immigration.

It seems people are voting out for a series of different reasons. Reasons that both sides can't be correct about, as they completely contradict one another.

What will actually happen if the UK leaves the EU? Does anyone really have a clue?

Farage has been banging on about an Australian based points system for a lot longer than Boris has to be fair. Don't see how this makes him a racist personally.

To be honest views like this are an example of what has annoyed me the most about the remain campaign. All this talk about tolerance and yet they show such ignorance and lack of respect towards people that disagree over immigration. Wanting to control immigration, whether that means more or less of it, is hardly racist. Remain might want an open border with the EU and not the rest of the world, fair enough, just don't see how it means those that disagree are hateful.

As for what would happen if vote leave wins. Yes there could be more clarity but Remain are also failing to tell us how they would (or even want to) stay in the EU and reform it. Both sides are as bad as each other.

[marinello59]

Nope. The 15% undecideds will come out for Stay and a sigh of relief can be blown.

:agree:

[Mon Dieu4]

Australian based points system is part of referendum bingo, if you played a drinking game everytime it was mentioned you'd get hammered

Speaking if which, Paxman is sounding pished tonight and is ******g up everything

[RyeSloan]

When you consider that the annual migration figures are0.5% of the population you have to wonder what the problem is.

That such a figure equates to more than the population of Scotland every decade?

[CapitalGreen]

That such a figure equates to more than the population of Scotland every decade?

Does it?

A 0.5% yearly increase over a decade is around 5.11%

5.11% of 64m is 3.27m, so about 2m less than the population of Scotland.

[High-On-Hibs]

Farage has been banging on about an Australian based points system for a lot longer than Boris has to be fair. Don't see how this makes him a racist personally.

To be honest views like this are an example of what has annoyed me the most about the remain campaign. All this talk about tolerance and yet they show such ignorance and lack of respect towards people that disagree over immigration. Wanting to control immigration, whether that means more or less of it, is hardly racist. Remain might want an open border with the EU and not the rest of the world, fair enough, just don't see how it means those that disagree are hateful.

As for what would happen if vote leave wins. Yes there could be more clarity but Remain are also failing to tell us how they would (or even want to) stay in the EU and reform it. Both sides are as bad as each other.

Sorry, but using posters of Syrian refugees (which has no connection with EU border policy) as an argument for leaving the EU shows Nigel Farage's true colours. He is obsessed with blaming every failed Conservative taxation and public spending policy on migration, when there is quite clearly no connection with migrants or the EU.

It's not a lack of respect over people who disagree over immigration. People are entitled to blame immigration if they wish. I just wish they could use fact based evidence to back up their claims, because I really don't see any. Every failure that I have witnessed under this UK Government has been a result of their own policies and nothing to do with the EU or their open border policy.

All this talk of "Eurocrats" and "taking back control". Yet those "Eurocrats" can't do a damn thing to effect UK Policy unless the UK Government signs up to it.

[Hibbyradge]

Does it?

A 0.5% yearly increase over a decade is around 5.11%

5.11% of 64m is 3.27m, so about 2m less than the population of Scotland.

What percentage of the population emigrate from the UK every year?

That number would have to be deducted from the 0.5%.

[Future17]

That such a figure equates to more than the population of Scotland every decade?


Does it?

A 0.5% yearly increase over a decade is around 5.11%

5.11% of 64m is 3.27m, so about 2m less than the population of Scotland.

You'll have to forgive him...he's an economist! :wink:

[RyeSloan]

You'll have to forgive him...he's an economist! :wink:

Ha ha about as accurate as an economists predictions I suppose ;-)

Dunno what I was thinking...anyway the point was that you can't take the 0.5% figure in isolation and ask what the problem is, clearly these figures when extrapolated can mean large absolute numbers. I think it's a fair question to ask how that impacts the nation, where these people go and what skills they are bringing.

To be clear I'm all for immigration as its essential to the economy but that doesn't mean people can't ask the question or propose alternative means to managing it for the best outcome of all parties.

[Moulin Yarns]

Ha ha about as accurate as an economists predictions I suppose ;-)

Dunno what I was thinking...anyway the point was that you can't take the 0.5% figure in isolation and ask what the problem is, clearly these figures when extrapolated can mean large absolute numbers. I think it's a fair question to ask how that impacts the nation, where these people go and what skills they are bringing.

To be clear I'm all for immigration as its essential to the economy but that doesn't mean people can't ask the question or propose alternative means to managing it for the best outcome of all parties.

It's alright though, the 0.5% immigration figure is balanced by the emigration figures, remember that 4% of the UK population have already left to live and work elsewhere in Europe. :wink:

That leaves wee bit of room for Europeans to come here.

[High-On-Hibs]

Ha ha about as accurate as an economists predictions I suppose ;-)

Dunno what I was thinking...anyway the point was that you can't take the 0.5% figure in isolation and ask what the problem is, clearly these figures when extrapolated can mean large absolute numbers. I think it's a fair question to ask how that impacts the nation, where these people go and what skills they are bringing.

To be clear I'm all for immigration as its essential to the economy but that doesn't mean people can't ask the question or propose alternative means to managing it for the best outcome of all parties.

True. But the point based system being proposed by the Brexit Campaign would attract even higher levels of immigration. The far right (with money) are huge fans of cheap labour for big business. They're just misleading the poorer far right into believing that Brexit will magically reduce the population of immigrants in the country, when it will actually have the exact opposite effect.

[Holmesdale Hibs]

True. But the point based system being proposed by the Brexit Campaign would attract even higher levels of immigration. The far right (with money) are huge fans of cheap labour for big business. They're just misleading the poorer far right into believing that Brexit will magically reduce the population of immigrants in the country, when it will actually have the exact opposite effect.

Surely the people exploiting cheap labour would vote to remain so they could continue as they have been? Don't see how having a points based system would help them although hopefully the UK minimum wage will help the people they're exploiting.

As for a points based system increasing immigration, I wouldn't mind seeing the math on that one. Please explain. For me, it not about more or less immigration, it's about controlling it and making sure we have the skills the country needs to thrive and being able to adjust when we need to. A points system seems a more reasonable way of achieving this.

[RyeSloan]

It's alright though, the 0.5% immigration figure is balanced by the emigration figures, remember that 4% of the UK population have already left to live and work elsewhere in Europe. :wink: That leaves wee bit of room for Europeans to come here.

Must admit I've not delved into the figure too far but I thought it represented net migration already...something like 300k+ last year.

That's a lot of people and more than the population of Edinburgh every two years! To just shrug and say what's the problem is maybe downplaying the impact (positive or negative) of such numbers over time.

[Moulin Yarns]

Must admit I've not delved into the figure too far but I thought it represented net migration already...something like 300k+ last year.

That's a lot of people and more than the population of Edinburgh every two years! To just shrug and say what's the problem is maybe downplaying the impact (positive or negative) of such numbers over time.


If only they could be encouraged to come north :wink:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-36505176

[SHODAN]

Must admit I've not delved into the figure too far but I thought it represented net migration already...something like 300k+ last year.

That's a lot of people and more than the population of Edinburgh every two years! To just shrug and say what's the problem is maybe downplaying the impact (positive or negative) of such numbers over time.

0.5% increase in population - 1 person for every 200.

Net migration does not affect employment.

[HappyAsHellas]

Where I work there are quite a few immigrants (primarily east European) who typically work shift patterns. Given that many companies nowadays are 24hr concerns this can hardly be described as rare, so why is it there is very little, if any local applicants when these jobs come up? In a previous job that company was advertising for 3 months and ended up with Polish workers, again with shift/weekend work. To dismiss locals as lazy is inherently wrong as many with young families just can't get around the hours required, but it does seem strange. All the jobs pay well above minimum wage, so it can't be economic reasons.:confused:

[Moulin Yarns]

I have to admit, I preferred the Ireland game to the Channel 4 referendum debate, but I did catch some of it, and contained in this article is possibly the best speech of the whole referendum campaign and it is not a politician.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/06/you-re-getting-bit-sheila-hancock-steals-show-channel-4-s-chaotic

[SunshineOnLeith]

Remember that, if we vote Leave, the pound will fall in value, making our already expensive European trip next month even more expensive.

[AndyM_1875]

Can I ask why you've mentioned me by name on a thread of 18 pages that I've not contributed to?

Admins:greengrin

** Prepares SNP Membership Form **

Give us a kiss!:greengrin

[JeMeSouviens]

Last polls show a continuing swing towards Remain.

MORI - 52-48 R
Yougov - 51-49 R
Comres - 54-46 R

The stock market and £ are surging accordingly.

[SunshineOnLeith]

Last polls show a continuing swing towards Remain.

MORI - 52-48 R
Yougov - 51-49 R
Comres - 54-46 R

The stock market and £ are surging accordingly.

And Leave is out to 7/1 with the bookies. Was 3/1 yesterday.

Cautiously breathing a sigh of relief.

[JeMeSouviens]

And Leave is out to 7/1 with the bookies. Was 3/1 yesterday.

Cautiously breathing a sigh of relief.

Too early for that imo. If they are as wrong as the last GE then it's still well within Leave's range.

[Leithwalk]

I have to admit, I preferred the Ireland game to the Channel 4 referendum debate, but I did catch some of it, and contained in this article is possibly the best speech of the whole referendum campaign and it is not a politician.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/06/you-re-getting-bit-sheila-hancock-steals-show-channel-4-s-chaotic

Thanks for posting that link - if only more of the remain side had spoken with such conviction and positivity. Too much reliance on dodgy numbers from the slimy twins in Downing Street to counter the ridiculous numbers from Leave. Still haven't seen acknowledgement from Leave that their talk of 20 million Turks pouring over the border was a deceit for which they should apologise. Migration is a difficult subject, but making things up doesn't help to work it out.

[SHODAN]

Storms down in the South East predicted to hit the Remain vote. Unbelievable.

[degenerated]

And Leave is out to 7/1 with the bookies. Was 3/1 yesterday.

Cautiously breathing a sigh of relief.
Lowest odds show remain currently 1/9 with leave at 4/1.

I reckon the result is going to end up being around 60/40 for staying in the eu.



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[SunshineOnLeith]

Lowest odds show remain currently 1/9 with leave at 4/1.

I reckon the result is going to end up being around 60/40 for staying in the eu.



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Don't think the margin will be that wide (it probably will be in Scotland, mind), 60/40 is a massive winning margin for a referendum.

There's a chance of the scenario talked about a week or so ago, where England narrowly votes Leave but Scotland (and, to a lesser extent Wales & NI) tips the overall result back to Remain.

[ronaldo7]

** Prepares SNP Membership Form **

Give us a kiss!:greengrin

They're not accepting flip floppers:na na:

[Pete]

Storms down in the South East predicted to hit the Remain vote. Unbelievable.

Will it not hit the leave vote too?

[Pete]

When you consider that the annual migration figures are0.5% of the population you have to wonder what the problem is.

I don't know myself as I've not looked at all the figures and I don't live in an area where cultural integration is a problem.

It would actually help the remain cause if anyone could simply answer the question or just admit that they won't be able to control it.

It's frustrating to hear all the vague answers followed by a swift change of subject. The worst thing anyone can do is take people for mugs.

[Holmesdale Hibs]

I can confirm it is absolutely pissing it down with rain in London. Worst I've seen in 10 years of living here.

I guess the logic is that there are more Remain voters in London and in this weather and after suffering long delays on the travel home, people just can't be ersed to vote. I'll be cycling but had a postal vote.

Doubt it will make a difference though, Remain will win.

[Pretty Boy]

I always love the conspiracy theories surrounding pencils at polling stations.

Do people really believe that if an election was to be rigged that one of the largest and most sophisticated frauds of all time would be carried out using 99p rubbers from Rymans.

[marinello59]

I always love the conspiracy theories surrounding pencils at polling stations.

Do people really believe that if an election was to be rigged that one of the largest and most sophisticated frauds of all time would be carried out using 99p rubbers from Rymans.

I think some people really are stupid enough to believe it. I actually thought it was somebody messing about at first.

[degenerated]

Will it not hit the leave vote too?
They have boats [emoji1] http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20160623/6a431f8d2516682877c97af5279b76be.jpg

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[NYHibby]

They're not accepting flip floppers:na na:

Do they accept wafflers?

https://img.buzzfeed.com/buzzfeed-static/static/enhanced/webdr03/2012/12/21/10/enhanced-buzz-11358-1356104836-6.jpg

http://www.marketingshift.com/images/john-kerry-wafflehead-float.jpg

[hibsbollah]

Glastonbury festival goers also won't be voting. Might also hit the Remain vote.

Just a thought.

On the other hand, festival goers these days are just as likely to be conservative voting middle aged middle managers working in financial services 'slumming' it. So who knows :greengrin

[Mr Grieves]

This floating about from vote leave campaign...

http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20160623/620d83cf779f5c9458e7de6ef5d50f78.jpg

[Mr Grieves]

And lead presiding officer predicting turn out of 70-80% in Scotland

[Hannah_hfc]

I always love the conspiracy theories surrounding pencils at polling stations.

Do people really believe that if an election was to be rigged that one of the largest and most sophisticated frauds of all time would be carried out using 99p rubbers from Rymans.
The #usepens hashtag on twitter has been pretty amusing, though some are hard to tell wether they are tongue in cheek or genuine tin foil hat cases!

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[Mon Dieu4]

I'm using today to have a good Facebook cull :rolleyes:

[SHODAN]

This floating about from vote leave campaign...

http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20160623/620d83cf779f5c9458e7de6ef5d50f78.jpg

http://memestorage.com/_nw/62/12841400.png

[Rasta_Hibs]

What gets me is the notion of the EU being about Peace on earth. Surely that's a bit hypocritical considering a few of the EU members states have been bombing the hell out of countries for about 20 years give or take a wee break here and there?

[Bristolhibby]

What gets me is the notion of the EU being about Peace on earth. Surely that's a bit hypocritical considering a few of the EU members states have been bombing the hell out of countries for about 20 years give or take a wee break here and there?

There not fought each other though. Something that has not happened in the previous 2000 years of European history.

J

[hibsbollah]

I'm using today to have a good Facebook cull :rolleyes:

None of my fb friends admit to being leave. Thats why facebook is evil, it kids you on that the world is equally well adjusted as you are when it isn't. And it probably also means I don't have a diverse group of mates :greengrin

[KWJ]

None of my fb friends admit to being leave. Thats why facebook is evil, it kids you on that the world is equally well adjusted as you are when it isn't. And it probably also means I don't have a diverse group of mates :greengrin

It also makes you want to have friends who all either agree with you or can at least express their opinion without coming across like a complete welt. A mate in the Scottish Borders is saying he's going to vote leave and dozens of folk from the are are on there agreeing with him, fair few Zombie FC badges and the like in the profile pics mind.

I'm returning home next month, only plus for me about a leave vote is that I'll get more for the few Canadaian $'s I will have to exchange.

[Pretty Boy]

ITV 'unique probability calculator' prediction coming up in place of exit polls.

Markets suggesting they are confident of a remain win.

[Pretty Boy]

Remain best priced 8/1 on, some going as far as 1/10 and even a 1/14

Leave best priced at 15/2, couple of places still going 5/1.

[stantonhibby]

Sky News reporting that Farage has said it looks like Remain has edged it

[degenerated]

Remain best priced 8/1 on, some going as far as 1/10 and even a 1/14

Leave best priced at 15/2, couple of places still going 5/1.
You gov final poll has 52/48 for Remain. I still reckon it'll be a bigger gap.

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[3pm]

ITV 'unique probability calculator' prediction coming up in place of exit polls.

Markets suggesting they are confident of a remain win.

52-48 in favour of remain according to Sky News.

[CapitalGreen]

Leave now 13/1 on Betfair. £67m matched on the market.

[KWJ]

52-48 in favour of remain according to Sky News.

Would love to know the Scottish influence on that.

How big a pull does Scotland have on the entire vote?

Hypothetically if Scotland was 100% turnout and remain against 100% turnout for rUK would that be enough to tip low 50% of the vote from Leave to Remain?

[Pretty Boy]

YouGov poll published just after 10 also saying 52-48 for remain.

[Pretty Boy]

Farage quoted as saying 'looks like Remain will edge it'

[NYHibby]

Sky News reporting that Farage has said it looks like Remain has edged it


YouGov poll published just after 10 also saying 52-48 for remain.

While Farage said about 10 minutes ago that it looks like remain won, Leave.EU's internal poll said they are 4 points ahead prompting questions about Farage's comment.

[Mr Grieves]

YouGov poll published just after 10 also saying 52-48 for remain.
Is the margin of error 3%?

Very tight

[Mr Grieves]

While Farage said about 10 minutes ago that it looks like remain won, Leave.EU's internal poll said they are 4 points ahead prompting questions about Farage's comment.
Farage will be happy whichever way this goes.

[NYHibby]

Private polls done for the City also had a 52-48 for remain, explaining the run the market made at the end of the day.

[NYHibby]

Is the margin of error 3%?

Very tight

I haven't seen the full table yet, but the sample size, at 4,800, is larger than Yougov's normal poll. Margin of error should be a hair smaller.

Edit: here is the full results. Margin of error not listed, but there are some interesting results in the non-headline questions.
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/640yx5m0rx/On_the_Day_FINAL_poll_forwebsite.pdf

[Pretty Boy]

Is the margin of error 3%?

Very tight

Give or take yep. It's tight but looking away from the pollsters there's evidence to suggest the remains might have it.

I'm following the markets and betting exchanges and they are both surging for remain. Pound hit it's highest point this year against the dollar today.

[KWJ]

Private polls done for the City also had a 52-48 for remain, explaining the run the market made at the end of the day.

If that's the case 15/1 is a great price for Leave :greengrin

I'm predicting 56-44 and 71% turnout.

[One Day Soon]

While Farage said about 10 minutes ago that it looks like remain won, Leave.EU's internal poll said they are 4 points ahead prompting questions about Farage's comment.

Salmond's Canadian pollsters were telling him something similar after the polls closed for the Indyref. Didn't quite work out though...

[Ronniekirk]

I think its been clear for the past few weeks that the remain campaign would win


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[One Day Soon]

Is the margin of error 3%?

Very tight

That 3% margin of error works both ways. Remain could be a lot higher and Leave a lot lower. Given the betting markets I'd suggest this will be a lot more like 55/45 than 52/48, perhaps even a bigger margin.

[3pm]

'Sources' saying UKIP's poll has 52-48 for Brexit!

Every other poll saying remain. :greengrin

Ladbrokes paying 1/10 on Remain.

[Mr Grieves]

That 3% margin of error works both ways. Remain could be a lot higher and Leave a lot lower. Given the betting markets I'd suggest this will be a lot more like 55/45 than 52/48, perhaps even a bigger margin.
I hope so.

[NYHibby]

Here is the full results. Margin of error not listed, but there are some interesting results in the non-headline questions.
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/640yx5m0rx/On_the_Day_FINAL_poll_forwebsite.pdf

Remain is ahead in all education categories except GCSE and other. +42 for degree or above.

Of the people who said they voted to leave, only 30% of them thought leave would win.

Remain +50 for 18-24s
Leave +22 for 65+

[hibsbollah]

Christ BBC Scotland's coverage is awful. Brian Jabba Taylor, faceless mannequin from Edinburgh Uni and that teuchter presenter. It's Dimbleby and BBC Engerlands proper political heavyweights for me.

[KWJ]

Remain is ahead in all education categories except GCSE and other. +42 for degree or above.

Of the people who said they voted to leave, only 30% of them thought leave would win.

Remain +50 for 18-24s
Leave +22 for 65+

Gonna be interesting to see the changes that come over the next couple decades.

[Hanny]

Reuters: Poll shows 54 percent remain, 46 percent leave: ipsosmori Chief Exec Ben Page

[NYHibby]

Here is the full results. Margin of error not listed, but there are some interesting results in the non-headline questions.
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/640yx5m0rx/On_the_Day_FINAL_poll_forwebsite.pdf

Somehow I missed that 7% of those who identified as UKIP in the poll voted to remain for some reason...

[hibsbollah]

Edinburgh the 3rd most likely to vote remain in the whole UK, behind only Oxford and Gibraltar.

[Mon Dieu4]

I need to talk to Stephen Hawking, Brian Cox and Neil Degrasse Tyson to find out how the BBCs polling index works haha

[NYHibby]

Edinburgh the 3rd most likely to vote remain in the whole UK, behind only Oxford and Gibraltar.

I heard the City is also ahead of Edinburgh. Although not that many people vote in the City...

Is it common knowledge about how companies vote in the City's local elections?

[Scottie]

Sky News reporting that Farage has said it looks like Remain has edged it
Farage has just unconceeded according to BBC :aok:

[Hanny]

Tommy Sheppard saying 75% of Edinburgh postal votes are for remain.

[Mr Grieves]

Edinburgh the 3rd most likely to vote remain in the whole UK, behind only Oxford and Gibraltar.
Tommy Sheppard SNP MP saying Edinburgh postal votes 3-1 split in favour of remain

[Frazerbob]

Edinburgh the 3rd most likely to vote remain in the whole UK, behind only Oxford and Gibraltar.

Edinburgh is the 7/4 favourite to return the highest Remain percentage, 6/1 the field. Gibraltar will be higher however that isn't an area for result purposes, it's part of the South West apparently.

[NYHibby]

Tommy Sheppard saying 75% of Edinburgh postal votes are for remain.

Didn't the SNP raise a huge stink when Ruth Davidson made a similar comment at the last referendum?

[High-On-Hibs]

Anybody else suspect that these referendums are merely used as a distraction while the government lobbies through highly controversial policies?

[Mr Grieves]

Didn't the SNP raise a huge stink when Ruth Davidson made a similar comment at the last referendum?

She commented well before the polls closed. I think they'll be counting the postal votes now and he's probably estimated from the size of the bundles.

[NYHibby]

Anybody else suspect that these referendums are merely used as a distraction while the government lobbies through highly controversial policies?

From where I sit at my day job, these referendums are a distraction from Government getting anything done let alone sneaking anything through.

I think you are giving Ministers and the civil servants who handle them too much credit.

[NYHibby]

She commented well before the polls closed. I think they'll be counting the postal votes now and he's probably estimated from the size of the bundles.

I just googled it, and you are correct.

[CapitalGreen]

If that's the case 15/1 is a great price for Leave :greengrin

I'm predicting 56-44 and 71% turnout.

Leave back into 15/2

[marinello59]

Jeremy Vine's graphic representations are just bonkers. :greengrin

[Mon Dieu4]

Turned over to STV for 12 seconds and Peston was on, back to Davie boy for me

[Scottie]

That's Gibraltar off my holiday list.

In 19322 - Out - 823.

Spaniards in disguise.

[High-On-Hibs]

From where I sit at my day job, these referendums are a distraction from Government getting anything done let alone sneaking anything through.

I think you are giving Ministers and the civil servants who handle them too much credit.

Not so sure. Everything seems to be fairly hush hush on issues concerning TTIP and the snoopers charter. But it's all being lobbied through anyway.

[Mon Dieu4]

That's Gibraltar off my holiday list.

In 19322 - Out - 823.

Spaniards in disguise.

I genuinely can't believe that there were 823 who wanted out

[JeMeSouviens]

Just to try to explain the 3% MoE thing.

It's just a sampling error inherent in representing a population of 60 million by a sample of 1000 or so. So assuming you could get a perfectly random sample, you'd be 95% confident of the results being within 3%.

The actual errors in polls are usually more to do with the sample not being sufficiently random because eg. people won't respond on the phone.

[NYHibby]

That's Gibraltar off my holiday list.

In 19322 - Out - 823.

Spaniards in disguise.

Sounds like you might need to cross off Edinburgh as well...

[Scottie]

Sounds like you might need to cross off Edinburgh as well...
Ive already emailed the club today and have send my season ticket back and ordered an away season ticket only for the new season. :aok:

[JeMeSouviens]

Douglas Carswell (ukip) says Farage's racist poster was wrong.

Good on him.

[Mon Dieu4]

Douglas Carswell (ukip) says Farage's racist poster was wrong.

Good on him.

I can't for the life of me work out why he's in UKIP, I actually don't mind the guy at all, complete opposite of Farage

[CropleyWasGod]

Glastonbury festival goers also won't be voting. Might also hit the Remain vote.

Just a thought.

On the other hand, festival goers these days are just as likely to be conservative voting middle aged middle managers working in financial services 'slumming' it. So who knows :greengrin
Why won't they?

Michael Eavis has encouraged people to vote by post, which is what I did, or by proxy. Haven't met anyone yet who hasn't voted.

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[Pete]

Looks like Sunderland is being treated as the bellwether.

Big leave majority and it's in the balance but if it's close then you can all go to your beds.

[Pete]

Newcastle split.

[hibsbollah]

Why won't they?

Michael Eavis has encouraged people to vote by post, which is what I did, or by proxy. Haven't met anyone yet who hasn't voted.

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Perhaps I should have done a 'just being sardonic' smilie. Unless you knew that and just wanted to show off youre at Glastonbury yourself? :greengrin

[hibsbollah]

I can't for the life of me work out why he's in UKIP, I actually don't mind the guy at all, complete opposite of Farage
If Farage were Scottish there's no doubt in my mind he'd be a fan of The Famous Heart of Midlothian Football Club.
.

[lord bunberry]

Looks like Sunderland is being treated as the bellwether.

Big leave majority and it's in the balance but if it's close then you can all go to your beds.
They're forecasting a 60/40 split in favour of leave.

[Mr Grieves]

Newcastle split.

Yep, remain hoped to do better. A bit concerning.


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[JeMeSouviens]

Uh oh, Newcastle good for leave, £ coming back down ...

[lord bunberry]

If Farage were Scottish there's no doubt in my mind he'd be a fan of The Famous Heart of Midlothian Football Club.
.
Definitely, him and pishy breeks would enjoy a pint together in the longstone hearts club in matching cardigans.

[JeMeSouviens]

Farage (****) already positioning a "we was robbed" narrative.

Picture him as a Hun personally.

[lord bunberry]

Uh oh, Newcastle good for leave, £ coming back down ...
It's cool man, I ordered my euros today :greengrin

[JeMeSouviens]

It's cool man, I ordered my euros today :greengrin

Phew! Glad we're all looking at the big picture here. :wink:

[Mon Dieu4]

If Farage were Scottish there's no doubt in my mind he'd be a fan of The Famous Heart of Midlothian Football Club.
.

Sounds about right, still can't believe he bangs on about elitist's and they fall for it, he's an ex public Schoolboy who was a commodity broker FFS, you are right Yam with Hun tenancies written all over him

[Pretty Boy]

Clackmannanshore 58-42 for Remain.

Scotland turnout forecast to be lower than the rest of the UK which must be concerning for Remain.

[Sir David Gray]

Massive win for Leave in Sunderland.

[JeMeSouviens]

Big win in Sunderland for leave. ****!

[Pretty Boy]

Sunderland 61-39 for leave. Leave go ahead overall.

Always likely Sunderland would go leave but that's a big win, worrying.

[lord bunberry]

Big leave win in Sunderland

[JeMeSouviens]

£ just dropped about 3 cents vs $ !!!

[hibsbollah]

Clackmannanshore 58-42 for Remain.

Scotland turnout forecast to be lower than the rest of the UK which must be concerning for Remain.

How scared is the Clackmannanshire returning officer? On the verge of a stage fright panic attack, poor woman.

[marinello59]

Big leave win in Sunderland

Seriously worrying.

[JeMeSouviens]

£ now given up all gain from earlier today.

[NYHibby]

Look at what the pound is doing.
Go to https://www.dailyfx.com/gbp-usd and click on 30

EDIT: It has now recovered about half of what it just gave up.

[High-On-Hibs]

Wouldn't be surprised to see a leave vote now to be honest. The BBC never whipped out the last minute scare stories like they did last time round. No talk of banks and big business pulling out this time around....

[marinello59]

Wouldn't be surprised to see a leave vote now to be honest. The BBC never whipped out the last minute scare stories like they did last time round. No talk of banks and big business pulling out this time around....

Eh? There was.

[Pretty Boy]

Latest odds:

Remain - 4/7
Leave - 23/10

Betfair (exchange) specifically:

Remain - 1.45
Leave - 3.15

[Scottie]

You remain boys need to calm doon a wee bit :greengrin

[High-On-Hibs]

Eh? There was.

I must have missed it all. It has been nothing like on the same level that it was in the final days of the Scottish referendum. I seem to recall banks declaring that they would move their head offices down to London in the event of independence. The BBC, Sky News and every other mainstream media outlet then spun it into "All bank jobs will move to England".

Oh.... and they went ahead and moved those head offices to London anyway....

[Mon Dieu4]

You remain boys need to calm doon a wee bit :greengrin

I'm not worried, David Gray will win it with his last minute remain vote

[hibsbollah]

I'm not worried, David Gray will win it with his last minute remain vote

As long as I get to go on the goalposts after..
.

[High-On-Hibs]

I'm not worried, David Gray will win it with his last minute remain vote

He's going bald. An obvious symptom of Brexitism.

[Scottie]

I'm not worried, David Gray will win it with his last minute remain vote
:greengrin Just the mention of his name makes me go all tingly.

£ down 6% oh my god

[Mon Dieu4]

As long as I get to go on the goalposts after..
.

You can get a piece of Boris as a Trophy, I'm going to run up and gesticulate in front of IDS

[SouthsideHarp_Bhoy]

Not so sure. Everything seems to be fairly hush hush on issues concerning TTIP and the snoopers charter. But it's all being lobbied through anyway.

What are people's concerns about TTIP?

Seems to be a lot of scaremongering and willful misinformation about it

[hibsbollah]

You can get a piece of Boris as a Trophy, I'm going to run up and gesticulate in front of IDS

I'll give Gove a good goading.

[lord bunberry]

You can get a piece of Boris as a Trophy, I'm going to run up and gesticulate in front of IDS
I'm going to jostle Michael Gove

[hibsbollah]

**** sake. This really isn't going to happen is it?

[Pretty Boy]

Some of the figures coming out of areas in England are concerning. 70%+ for leave in a lot of areas being forecast. Even in areas they are expecting to win that's worrying.

Given the turnout it looks like leave have mobilised their vote better.

[lord bunberry]

**** sake. This really isn't going to happen is it?
It's looking pretty grim tbh.

[Mon Dieu4]

**** sake. This really isn't going to happen is it?

Will be close, but they keep going to pishy wee places and asking the state of play, as soon as the places with serious numbers kick in then it will be different

[Pretty Boy]

Foyle in NI 78-22 remain.

Remain back ahead and some good figures being forecast in London. Looks like the Labour heartlands (England) are going to be key. Shows how poorly the party are connecting with their core voters.

[JJP]

Early days but I'm very surprised how this is looking so far. I was expecting Remain to win at a canter but maybe that's just in the company I keep. Pretty concerning.

[hibsbollah]

Well I've got work in the morning so I'm off to my scratcher. Ed Milibands coupon sours any evening.

[Pretty Boy]

Isle of Scilly 56-44 remain.

[Off the bar]

Foyle in NI 78-22 remain.

Remain back ahead and some good figures being forecast in London. Looks like the Labour heartlands (England) are going to be key. Shows how poorly the party are connecting with their core voters.

I'd be astonished if London wasn't overwhelmingly remain

[Pretty Boy]

Victory for leave in Swindon. 55-45

[HibeeSince82]

Broxbourne vote to leave

[Pete]

Broxbourne vote to leave

It'll be the haggis factory closure that swung it.

[blaikie]

I have a feeling that Scotland is going to keep the UK in.

[Pete]

55% turnout in Falkirk. Quite low.

[Scottie]

I'd be astonished if London wasn't overwhelmingly remain
The bad weather will be a major factor in London and surrounding areas turnout which can only be good news for Leave.

[BroxburnHibee]

Kettering votes leave.

[lord bunberry]

This is quite exciting and worrying at the same time.

[Pretty Boy]

Kettering votes leave.

[HibeeSince82]

Another leave

This is not good

[Scottie]

This is quite exciting and worrying at the same time.
You mean it's like watching Hibs :wink:

[SHODAN]

Genuinely feeling sick right now.

[SteveHFC]

Peter Henley ‏@BBCPeterH (https://twitter.com/BBCPeterH) 12m12 minutes ago (https://twitter.com/BBCPeterH/status/746129630873161728)Southampton, England (https://twitter.com/search?q=place%3A1b676cd4b8a8684a)
Portsmouth is looking like 57% Leave, Southampton 60% Leave. Both were expected to be more level.

[Pretty Boy]

Another leave

This is not good

Tbh these smaller areas aren't overly concerning and are going , give or take, as expected. Remain needs a strong performance in the big urban areas, if it doesn't get that then there's a worry.

[lord bunberry]

You mean it's like watching Hibs :wink:
Pretty much aye :greengrin

[Mon Dieu4]

This is quite exciting and worrying at the same time.

As long as Scotland resoundingly votes remain I can see the benefits either way for what I'd like as the end game, so it is exciting seeing what's happening

[HibeeSince82]

Tbh these smaller areas aren't overly concerning and are going , give or take, as expected. Remain needs a strong performance in the big urban areas, if it doesn't get that then there's a worry.


Thats very true

[Pretty Boy]

Shetland remain.

West Dunbartonshire remain.

1 better than expected performance, 1 slightly poorer.

[Mon Dieu4]

Haha Ecks up for arguments, must have had a few drams before this

[Off the bar]

David Davis is twat

[lord bunberry]

As long as Scotland resoundingly votes remain I can see the benefits either way for what I'd like as the end game, so it is exciting seeing what's happening
It's looking likely that Scotland will definitely vote to remain.

[Pretty Boy]

Another strong leave performance in the NE. Leave take South Tyneside with over 60%.

High turnout in Yorkshire with leave claiming a big victory especially in the Labour heartlands.

[lord bunberry]

Another strong leave performance in the NE. Leave take South Tyneside with over 60%.

High turnout in Yorkshire with leave claiming a big victory especially in the Labour heartlands.
The 6/4 leave to win is starting to look tempting.

[Pretty Boy]

Big Remain vote in Dundee. 60-40.

[--------]

It's looking likely that Scotland will definitely vote to remain.


Exciting times we live in ....

Of course, what Scotland might want isn't really relevant. Whatever the result of this vote, we'll still be part of a Union. The only question is, which Union?

[BroxburnHibee]

Paddy Ashdown speaking very well on itv

Talking of accepting whatever the electorate decide. Straight pop at Farage.

[Pretty Boy]

Lagan Valley votes to leave.

NI looking like being split on the usual lines. Nationalists coming out for remain, loyalists for leave.

[HibeeSince82]

I am heading to Orlando in september and dont have much dollars.

Anyone on here heard anything about what could happen to the rate should we leave.

I notice the pound took a nose dive but has since recovered

[Pretty Boy]

As long as Scotland resoundingly votes remain I can see the benefits either way for what I'd like as the end game, so it is exciting seeing what's happening

If Scotland overwhelmingly votes remain there has to be a 2nd Indyref imo.

One of the key arguments in the last one was the threat to our EU membership if a Yes vote happened. The No camp banged that drum relentlessly and it's transpired that a No vote was no guarantee of our EU membership after all.

That's a massive change in circumstances and potentially a game changer.

[cabbageandribs1875]

my prediction shall be a win for the remains, i'l even put a crisp £5 note on it

[NYHibby]

I am heading to Orlando in september and dont have much dollars.

Anyone on here heard anything about what could happen to the rate should we leave.

I notice the pound took a nose dive but has since recovered

1.3ish is what I've heard to look out for. Somebody else was kicking around a 1.15 figure.

But the important thing to note is that September is far away. You should wait to see how things will play out between now and then.

[Mon Dieu4]

If Scotland overwhelmingly votes remain there has to be a 2nd Indyref imo.

One of the key arguments in the last one was the threat to our EU membership if a Yes vote happened. The No camp banged that drum relentlessly and it's transpired that a No vote was no guarantee of our EU membership after all.

That's a massive change in circumstances and potentially a game changer.

Yep, that's what I'm after, I make no bones about it, there are two things I wanted to see in my lifetime, one down one to go ;)

[--------]

If Scotland overwhelmingly votes remain there has to be a 2nd Indyref imo.

One of the key arguments in the last one was the threat to our EU membership if a Yes vote happened. The No camp banged that drum relentlessly and it's transpired that a No vote was no guarantee of our EU membership after all.

That's a massive change in circumstances and potentially a game changer.


I've been cynically wondering how many of the folk who pushed that argument in the Scottish referendum - don't vote to leave the UK because it'll endanger Scotland's place in Europe - have now changed sides and have been pushing to leave?

But then I'm a cynical old man indeed ....:devil:

[Pretty Boy]

I've been cynically wondering how many of the folk who pushed that argument in the Scottish referendum - don't vote to leave the UK because it'll endanger Scotland's place in Europe - have now changed sides and have been pushing to leave?

But then I'm a cynical old man indeed ....:devil:

Cynical but also quite probably correct.

[Pretty Boy]

Projections from Birmingham is that remain has between 55 and 60% of the vote. That's good news.

[Scottie]

Projections from Birmingham is that remain has between 55 and 60% of the vote. That's good news.
Good news in your opinion

[Pretty Boy]

Hartlepool, Basildon and Stockton vote leave, all 60% plus. Merthyr Tyfdl also a leave

West Tyrone, Renfrewshire and Western Isles remain.

[Pretty Boy]

Good news in your opinion

Yes, I was expressing my opinion so that stands to reason.

[Mon Dieu4]

Is Hartlepool voting leave even news, did they not once hang a monkey

[NYHibby]

Midlothian 62%
Renfrewshire 65%

[High-On-Hibs]

It's getting extremely tedious listening to Jeremy Vine repeat the same things over and over again.

[Pete]

More people are sticking two fingers up to the establishment than expected so far.
"Screwed over" places like Wales and the north East will be asking how it can get any worse anyway.

[Pretty Boy]

Middlesborough continues the NE trend.

City of London remain, small voter numbers though.

[NYHibby]

Middlesborough continues the NE trend.

City of London remain, small voter numbers though.

Only 4,400 total votes.

[lord bunberry]

4/7 remain 5/4 leave.

[Pretty Boy]

I'm going to forecast this as 52-48 for someone.

If remain gets a big win in the London Boroughs, Glasgow and Birmingham it has a chance. Otherwise the traditionally Labour (non Scottish) vote will swing it for leave.

The Scottish vote is strange given plenty of areas voting remain have suffered every bit as badly as NE England and industrial Wales over the last x number of years. Someone is going to have fun picking over the bones of this.

[NYHibby]

Lindsay Lohan is apparently a pro-EU Scottish nationalist now.

"I love the #shetlands (https://twitter.com/hashtag/shetlands?src=hash) @BBCNews (https://twitter.com/BBCNews) thank goodness we have pure hearted people our side #besmart (https://twitter.com/hashtag/besmart?src=hash) #ShetlandsVSSunderland (https://twitter.com/hashtag/ShetlandsVSSunderland?src=hash) #BringItOn (https://twitter.com/hashtag/BringItOn?src=hash)"

https://twitter.com/lindsaylohan/status/746135230512234496

[Pretty Boy]

Leave now favourites on the exchanges.

[Pretty Boy]

Best odds at the bookies:

Remain - 6/4
Leave - 5/4

If it was a horse race you wouldn't go near it.

[lord bunberry]

Leave now favourites on the exchanges.

And with bet 365
1/2 leave
6/4 remain.

[Cameron1875]

51-49 Remain with Scotland voting Remain is the absolute perfect scenario for Independence.

Popcorn gif stuff if it happens.

[Pretty Boy]

51-49 Remain with Scotland voting Remain is the absolute perfect scenario for Independence.

Popcorn gif stuff if it happens.

Scotland is likely to be well over 60% remain imo.

The calls for Indyref2 will be huge if that happens. Whether it happens is another matter, in fact I'll say it simply won't happen.

Oh and Corbyns coat will be on the shoogly peg as well given the rejection of the Labour postion in their English and Welsh heartlands. Secretly I think he'll be quite happy with the result though, he's hardly been the most enthusiastic remain campaigner.

[High-On-Hibs]

Scotland is likely to be well over 60% remain imo.

The calls for Indyref2 will be huge if that happens. Whether it happens is another matter, in fact I'll say it simply won't happen.

Not only will it not happen. Westminster will have more power than ever to take away Holyrood. Seems far fetched, but I certainly wouldn't put it past the likes of Boris Johnson within an independent UK.

[HibeeSince82]

Great to see some yellows pop up there.

[Mon Dieu4]

Lambeth showing what big city constituencies will do to swing it

[Pretty Boy]

Oxford, Lambeth and Exter strong for remain. Stirling and Angus continue the Scottish theme.

[Pretty Boy]

Glasgow 68% for remain.

Remain back in the lead.

[Mon Dieu4]

Weegies have just played their part

[HibeeSince82]

Glasgow vote to remain

[Beefster]

Weegies have just played their part

Just not enough of them unfortunately.

[Mon Dieu4]

Just not enough of them unfortunately.

Yep, think you may be right

[lord bunberry]

5/6 leave
5/6 remain

[Pretty Boy]

Leave - 3/4
Remain - 7/4

Latest best odds from the bookies

[Pretty Boy]

Falkirk remain 57%.

[JJP]

Glasgow puts Remain narrowly ahead. 'Mon the Weegies.

[--------]

Not only will it not happen. Westminster will have more power than ever to take away Holyrood. Seems far fetched, but I certainly wouldn't put it past the likes of Boris Johnson within an independent UK.


That would be an incredibly stupid thing to do.

I can't think of anything more destructive of the concept of the UK than a right-wing Tory government reversing or attempting to reverse the process of devolution that's been going on for what? 40 years now?

[Pretty Boy]

Scotland currently at 62% remain just over half way through counting with the big expected Edinburgh remain vote still to come.

Aberdeenshire will see a decent number of leave voters from the fishing towns but 65% remain in Scotland could be realistic.

[Pretty Boy]

Wandsworth big remain vote. 75% remain.

Burnley big leave vote, 67%.