The future of the Labour Party

[Stairway 2 7]

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https://bsky.app/profile/gabrielzucm.../3ltfbobjhk22j

Labour need to start on something like this if they are to recover their reputation.


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And they will just move to another country before its official. We need a European wide and g12 wide agreement on the minimum tax or it doesn't work. Due to Labour's tax changes the uk will lose by far the most millionaires of any country this year, over 16500 are estimated to leave in the next 12 months.

Non doms inheritance tax changes means they will be taxed 40% now instead of zero. That could bring in £7 billion per year. But if 25% of non doms leave, that number goes down to zero.

In the dog eat dog world and ease of moving assets to countries like the UAE, I'd doubt we'd get joined up thinking on tax

UBS

[grunt]

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Non doms inheritance tax changes means they will be taxed 40% now instead of zero. That could bring in £7 billion per year. But if 25% of non doms leave, that number goes down to zero.

Help me out here?

[Stairway 2 7]

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Help me out here?

Non doms inheritance tax was 0% labour changed it to 40% if they have lived here 10 years. It should bring in £7 billion per year.

If 25% of non doms leave its estimated it'll bring in zero due to non doms paying billions in other taxes which we won't receive. If we lose more than 25% the benefits are estimated to be a negative. The hope is they won't more residence or less than 25% will

[Ozyhibby]

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Non doms inheritance tax was 0% labour changed it to 40% if they have lived here 10 years. It should bring in £7 billion per year.

If 25% of non doms leave its estimated it'll bring in zero due to non doms paying billions in other taxes which we won't receive. If we lose more than 25% the benefits are estimated to be a negative. The hope is they won't more residence or less than 25% will

Any stats to back up the assertions all over the right wing press and their social media influencers about the flight of the millionaires?


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[Smartie]

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Non doms inheritance tax was 0% labour changed it to 40% if they have lived here 10 years. It should bring in £7 billion per year.

If 25% of non doms leave its estimated it'll bring in zero due to non doms paying billions in other taxes which we won't receive. If we lose more than 25% the benefits are estimated to be a negative. The hope is they won't more residence or less than 25% will

Any chance anyone will step in and do what the non doms once did, paying the appropriate tax?

I’ve long been of the “don’t let the door hit your backside on the way out” mindset when it comes to the wealthy whining. They’ve built up a perception that there’s only a cost when they leave, rather than a cost and an opportunity for someone else to step up.

I also find it bizarre that the very moderately wealthy relate so much more to the ultra wealthy and influential with their decision making rather than Joe Average - and their interests would more likely be better served by their political decision making being closer to Joe Average than the ultra wealthy.

[Ozyhibby]

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Any chance anyone will step in and do what the non doms nice did, paying the appropriate tax?

I’ve long been of the “don’t let the door hit your backside on the way out” mindset when it comes to the wealthy whining. They’ve built up a perception that there’s only a cost when they leave, rather than a cost and an opportunity from someone else to step up.

I also find it bizarre that the very moderately wealthy relate so much more to the ultra wealthy and influential with their decision making rather than Joe Average - and their interests would more likely be better served by their political decision making being closer to Joe Average than the ultra wealthy.

Western democracies are amazing places to live and grow wealthy in. Some will leave for better tax situations elsewhere but others will recognise the value of being and doing business here. The strength of our society is in the belief that everyone here is doing their bit. That’s not there just now and it’s weakening us.


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[Stairway 2 7]

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Any stats to back up the assertions all over the right wing press and their social media influencers about the flight of the millionaires?


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The OBS briefed Labour that they estimated it would be a loss of 12 to 24% of the 74,000 non doms so its not hard to believe the estimate.

The report said it used multiple sources to get the figure and wasn't looking at the uk it studied dozens of countries and found UAE would gain the most and China second.
https://www.henleyglobal.com/publications/henley-private-wealth-migration-report-2025

The numbers won't be known for a year and a half officially but its obvious people will move wealth if it will cost them more than the hassle of moving it. Is a billionaire just going to say no problem I'll pay a wealth tax of hundreds of billions rather than jumping.

[Stairway 2 7]

There was talk of Europe bringing in a minimum corporation tax level, obviously Ireland thought against it. I'd like the same with wealth taxes. Although when you can move many assets and companies assets at a click of the button to Monaco or UAE, i don't know what the answer is to make them pay fair. Obviously that doesn't apply the same to bricks and mortar companies but they can also go to countries with tiny corporation tax

I guess one answer is more nationalised businesses

[Ozyhibby]

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There was talk of Europe bringing in a minimum corporation tax level, obviously Ireland thought against it. I'd like the same with wealth taxes. Although when you can move many assets and companies assets at a click of the button to Monaco or UAE, i don't know what the answer is to make them pay fair. Obviously that doesn't apply the same to bricks and mortar companies but they can also go to countries with tiny corporation tax

I guess one answer is more nationalised businesses

There is a minimum of 15% because Ireland had to raise it in line from 12%. Pretty sure Biden organised it.


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[Ozyhibby]

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The OBS briefed Labour that they estimated it would be a loss of 12 to 24% of the 74,000 non doms so its not hard to believe the estimate.

The report said it used multiple sources to get the figure and wasn't looking at the uk it studied dozens of countries and found UAE would gain the most and China second.
https://www.henleyglobal.com/publica...on-report-2025

The numbers won't be known for a year and a half officially but its obvious people will move wealth if it will cost them more than the hassle of moving it. Is a billionaire just going to say no problem I'll pay a wealth tax of hundreds of billions rather than jumping.

Couldn’t find OBS but Henley private wealth management might have a vested interest in opposing the change?
We had all this about the VAT on private schools. Wasn’t 25% expected to close etc? What happened? Nothing, the parents paid and the schools carried on as normal.
You can’t look at the media just now without seeing tales of the millionaire exodus from the UK and yet there are no stats to back it up.


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[Hibspur]

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Couldn’t find OBS but Henley private wealth management might have a vested interest in opposing the change?
We had all this about the VAT on private schools. Wasn’t 25% expected to close etc? What happened? Nothing, the parents paid and the schools carried on as normal.
You can’t look at the media just now without seeing tales of the millionaire exodus from the UK and yet there are no stats to back it up.


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https://www.isc.co.uk/media-enquirie...ndent-schools/

I don't think that's strictly true and it will likely be some time before it becomes clear how big an impact this has had. In Edinburgh, where I think about 30% of kids are privately educated a behemoth like Watson's will likely be just fine but it's the smaller schools which will struggle. One I have particular sympathy for is Edinburgh Steiner School which I know offers a pretty unique and valuable outlet for kids who've struggled for a variety of reasons in the mainstream system (private or state). The fees are significantly lower than the bigger schools, but there's not a lot of wealth among that particular parent community and I suspect they'll be finding ends hard to meet. I know the local MP Ian Murray did look into special dispensations there.

[Alex Trager]

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There was talk of Europe bringing in a minimum corporation tax level, obviously Ireland thought against it. I'd like the same with wealth taxes. Although when you can move many assets and companies assets at a click of the button to Monaco or UAE, i don't know what the answer is to make them pay fair. Obviously that doesn't apply the same to bricks and mortar companies but they can also go to countries with tiny corporation tax

I guess one answer is more nationalised businesses

They own the bricks and mortar here though, a lot of their wealth comes from owning physical assets in the UK - that should be taxed in the UK.

Completely agree with your point though. I have no idea why there isn’t a worldwide consensus (I do, actually) that the richest should pay their fare share.

[Ozyhibby]

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https://www.isc.co.uk/media-enquirie...ndent-schools/

I don't think that's strictly true and it will likely be some time before it becomes clear how big an impact this has had. In Edinburgh, where I think about 30% of kids are privately educated a behemoth like Watson's will likely be just fine but it's the smaller schools which will struggle. One I have particular sympathy for is Edinburgh Steiner School which I know offers a pretty unique and valuable outlet for kids who've struggled for a variety of reasons in the mainstream system (private or state). The fees are significantly lower than the bigger schools, but there's not a lot of wealth among that particular parent community and I suspect they'll be finding ends hard to meet. I know the local MP Ian Murray did look into special dispensations there.

Again, anecdotal evidence? Is it still 30% of kids in Edinburgh going private? Or has it dropped to 25%? Either way it’s a boost for the exchequer.


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[Smartie]

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They own the bricks and mortar here though, a lot of their wealth comes from owning physical assets in the UK - that should be taxed in the UK.

Completely agree with your point though. I have no idea why there isn’t a worldwide consensus (I do, actually) that the richest should pay their fare share.

To put it neutrally, it’s that there is fairly wide variation on what constitutes “fair”.

[Kato]

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They own the bricks and mortar here though, a lot of their wealth comes from owning physical assets in the UK - that should be taxed in the UK.

Completely agree with your point though. I have no idea why there isn’t a worldwide consensus (I do, actually) that the richest should pay their fare share.

Because they own the media that will rail against it and have a lot of powerful politicians sewn up?























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[Andy Bee]

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Any stats to back up the assertions all over the right wing press and their social media influencers about the flight of the millionaires?


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The Patriotic Millionaires Group have conducted polling that puts some context to the supposed mass exodus of the wealthy if a wealth tax was brought in. Their polling showed that 75% of millionaires with over £10m would pay an extra 2%.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Xs5UCnaRHo&t=40s

[CropleyWasGod]

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Again, anecdotal evidence? Is it still 30% of kids in Edinburgh going private? Or has it dropped to 25%? Either way it’s a boost for the exchequer.


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It's too soon to tell I'd say.

The tax has only been in place since January. Fees for the Easter term would likely have been paid up front, to avoid the VAT. That might also apply for the Summer term.

The time to make an assessment will be the start of the new session.

[He's here!]

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It's too soon to tell I'd say.

The tax has only been in place since January. Fees for the Easter term wouild likely have been paid up front, to avoid the VAT. That might also apply for the Summer term.

The time to make an assessment will be the start of the new session.

A lot of parents will also have stretched their budget so as not to disrupt exam years for their kids. As you say, too early to say but I think there will be a significant impact.

If it truly does improve the lot of overworked teachers in the state sector then fine but I have my doubts.

[He's here!]

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https://www.isc.co.uk/media-enquirie...ndent-schools/

I don't think that's strictly true and it will likely be some time before it becomes clear how big an impact this has had. In Edinburgh, where I think about 30% of kids are privately educated a behemoth like Watson's will likely be just fine but it's the smaller schools which will struggle. One I have particular sympathy for is Edinburgh Steiner School which I know offers a pretty unique and valuable outlet for kids who've struggled for a variety of reasons in the mainstream system (private or state). The fees are significantly lower than the bigger schools, but there's not a lot of wealth among that particular parent community and I suspect they'll be finding ends hard to meet. I know the local MP Ian Murray did look into special dispensations there.

One of my nieces went there. Horribly bullied at her other high school to the extent she wasn't going to school.My brother and his wife dug deep to send her to Steiner (helped by a bursary) and you'd see her going in with a smile on her face. Invaluable.

[Pretty Boy]

Surely all these millionaires can just cut down on the lattes and avocado toast and any new taxation will be no problem?

[Kato]

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Surely all these millionaires can just cut down on the lattes and avocado toast and any new taxation will be no problem?

No it's our duty to cut back. It's their duty to float about from country to country because they "love Great Britain".



















.

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[Stairway 2 7]

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Couldn’t find OBS but Henley private wealth management might have a vested interest in opposing the change?
We had all this about the VAT on private schools. Wasn’t 25% expected to close etc? What happened? Nothing, the parents paid and the schools carried on as normal.
You can’t look at the media just now without seeing tales of the millionaire exodus from the UK and yet there are no stats to back it up.


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Uk millionaires went from 700k in 2007 to



Sunday times rich list said we lost the most significant amount of billionaires, which should be easy to track
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/reeves-non-dom-tax-u-turn-b2772094.html

OBR estimate was reported at the time and the news this week is Reeves is going to soften it due to a poor take.

https://bmmagazine.co.uk/news/rachel-reeves-reconsiders-non-dom-tax-changes-to-halt-exodus-of-wealthy-individuals/
While the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) originally forecast that between 12% and 25% of non-doms would leave, a more recent Oxford Economics survey of tax advisers found that 60% expected over 40% of their non-dom clients to relocate within two years of the change.

I don't think the private school VAT is similar. With that people have to change behaviour ie kids school. Where as nowadays businesses can register elsewhere and you can change your nationality easily. I didn't realise the corporation tax had came in, I'd like the same for a wealth tax

[Stairway 2 7]

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It's too soon to tell I'd say.

The tax has only been in place since January. Fees for the Easter term would likely have been paid up front, to avoid the VAT. That might also apply for the Summer term.

The time to make an assessment will be the start of the new session.

11k less enrolled in private schools in January, but yes it'll be next year before it plays out. Government estimated 70k so I'm sure it'll be under that. I was personally all for the change although there would be people caught in the cracks like anything
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/education/education-news/private-school-vat-fees-pupils-b2764343.html

[Ozyhibby]

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Uk millionaires went from 700k in 2007 to



Sunday times rich list said we lost the most significant amount of billionaires, which should be easy to track
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-b2772094.html

OBR estimate was reported at the time and the news this week is Reeves is going to soften it due to a poor take.

https://bmmagazine.co.uk/news/rachel...y-individuals/
While the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) originally forecast that between 12% and 25% of non-doms would leave, a more recent Oxford Economics survey of tax advisers found that 60% expected over 40% of their non-dom clients to relocate within two years of the change.

I don't think the private school VAT is similar. With that people have to change behaviour ie kids school. Where as nowadays businesses can register elsewhere and you can change your nationality easily. I didn't realise the corporation tax had came in, I'd like the same for a wealth tax

There is still no stats in there? It says 10,000 millionaire left? Is that a net figure? It doesn’t mention how many arrived?


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[Stairway 2 7]

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There is still no stats in there? It says 10,000 millionaire left? Is that a net figure? It doesn’t mention how many arrived?


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The OBR was an estimate that 12%-25% would leave, you will have to wait until next year for definite figure but they are impartial. The fact that its being widely reported that Reeves is going to water it down tells me how its went or she would keep as is.

[Andy Bee]

According to Stephen Kinsella of the Patriotic Millionaires UK in the LBC interview I posted above there's 3 million millionaires in the UK and rising so even at 10,000 leaving it's small change.

[Ozyhibby]

The public support it.


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[Stairway 2 7]

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According to Stephen Kinsella of the Patriotic Millionaires UK in the LBC interview I posted above there's 3 million millionaires in the UK and rising so even at 10,000 leaving it's small change.

3 million is from a UBS estimate and they expect us to lose 500k by 2028
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/uk-lose-half-million-millionaires-134437281.html
The number of millionaires in the UK is set to fall by 17% over the next years, according to a report that shows that people are getting richer across the globe.

The UK had over three million adults owning $1m (£779,145) or more last year according to the 2024 Global Wealth Report from UBS. However, the Swiss investment bank expects the number of millionaires in the UK to fall to roughly 2.54 million by 2028.

Im morally happy with a wealth tax but 29% of uk tax income comes from the top 1% of earners, if they can jump scot free then its not good. I guess we have to make the UK an inviting place to live and invest, and due to brexit etc were not

[grunt]

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The UK had over three million adults owning $1m (£779,145) or more last year according to the 2024 Global Wealth Report from UBS. However, the Swiss investment bank expects the number of millionaires in the UK to fall to roughly 2.54 million by 2028.

Does that include property, or are they just referencing liquid assets?

[Stairway 2 7]

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Does that include property, or are they just referencing liquid assets?

Property included, I'd guess a lot in the south east of England and Edinburgh etc are "millionaires" due to housing