(Soon to be) Former President Donald Trump

[The Tubs]

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good luck to them with that, seems like there's a huge assumption that other more productive nations will just roll over like Colombia did recently.
I'm not confident the USA can fire up it's own production up, economically during the orange guy's term, especially given the way he flits from soundbite to soundbite and that he doesn't really foresee that his statements often have consequences.

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Even if foreigners don't completely roll over, it will be the consumer that pays in the end so it'll probably be a more regressive than income tax. Bugger for Champagne and Ferraris though.

[Bostonhibby]

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Even if foreigners don't completely roll over, it will be the consumer that pays in the end so it'll probably be a more regressive than income tax. Bugger for Champagne and Ferraris though.

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[Colr]

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Even if foreigners don't completely roll over, it will be the consumer that pays in the end so it'll probably be a more regressive than income tax. Bugger for Champagne and Ferraris though.

I’m willing to help out with the spare champagne that they won’t be taking.

[Ozyhibby]

I wonder if we are heading for a Black Monday on the stock markets tomorrow? None of this looks good for business and US stocks (especially the ‘magnificent 7’) are massively over valued just now.


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[Smartie]

I think he’s totally overplaying his hand.

No doubt the tariffs will have the expected negative impact on their targets but I think he’s totally underestimated how they’re going to affect themselves.

I’ve also heard that their military bases are busying themselves as if they’re going to take action on someone over the next few weeks, military action on Panama being the most likely.

It’s going to be an even rockier next few years economically imo.

[s.a.m]

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Being a continental-sized nation, they're far less reliant on imports than the UK, by about 15% to 30% of GDP. Because their economy is so big, however, exporting to the US is important for foreigners. It seems like they want to go back to 19th century government financing and zero income tax.

He's specifically said this is what he wants to do.

And although, like you say, they've got a lot of land. Theoretically, they could be self-sufficient (which would presumably mess up the 'replacing income tax with tariffs' plan), but they're not. It would take a number of years of scarcity of food and crucial goods before they got there. If you add to that the planned purge on illegal immigrants - who are a significant proportion of the food production and agriculture and construction sectors - that's going to be a challenge.

[Ozyhibby]

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He's specifically said this is what he wants to do.

And although, like you say, they've got a lot of land. Theoretically, they could be self-sufficient (which would presumably mess up the 'replacing income tax with tariffs' plan), but they're not. It would take a number of years of scarcity of food and crucial goods before they got there. If you add to that the planned purge on illegal immigrants - who are a significant proportion of the food production and agriculture and construction sectors - that's going to be a challenge.

I don’t see how it does not result in massive inflation?


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[Andy Bee]

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I wonder if we are heading for a Black Monday on the stock markets tomorrow? None of this looks good for business and US stocks (especially the ‘magnificent 7’) are massively over valued just now.


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Nvidia has already had $Bns wiped off its value. Canadian energy is a big one although he's only hitting Canada 10% for that. I remember watching an ex CEO of Google giving a lecture on energy, he spoke of when in office he would be approached by new starts asking for finance, $10m - $20m, then it grew to $50m - $100m, then $1bn - $5bn and then when he asked how much you need they told him money wasn't the problem they needed energy, the USA and its grid couldn't cope with the electricity needed for modern day data storage and the AI revolution. His answer was "you better stay good friends with Canada". Canada are now threatening to turn the power off in retaliation to the tariffs.

[s.a.m]

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I don’t see how it does not result in massive inflation?
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Yeah. And, potentially a new 'Big Short'..
"In January, investors have placed 10 times more bets on US stocks falling than equivalent bets that shares in leading American companies would rise, the investment bank said."

[Ozyhibby]

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/ar...campaign=share

Worth a read on tariffs.

https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcas...=1000688157475

And worth a listen. Only 15 mins long but explains well what’s happening and the limits and weaknesses in the Trump admin.


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[The_Exile]

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I wonder if we are heading for a Black Monday on the stock markets tomorrow? None of this looks good for business and US stocks (especially the ‘magnificent 7’) are massively over valued just now.


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I've had a few grand in the S&P 500 for a couple of years. On Friday I sold everything and stuck it all in gold. Happy to sit this next 6 months out and see how it goes, if it dives then I'll buy back in at some point.

[grunt]

The guy's a lunatic.

[grunt]

About those tariffs - "will there be some pain? Yes, maybe"

[The Tubs]

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I've had a few grand in the S&P 500 for a couple of years. On Friday I sold everything and stuck it all in gold. Happy to sit this next 6 months out and see how it goes, if it dives then I'll buy back in at some point.

Sensible. The best retaliation suggestion I've seen is 100% tariffs on Teslas.

[Ozyhibby]

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Sensible. The best retaliation suggestion I've seen is 100% tariffs on Teslas.

That plus targeting red states. Last time when Trump put tariffs on EU steel, the EU put tariffs on Harley Davidsons which were made in Mitch McConnels state. Canada (and Mexico) needs to target trump voters as much as possible.


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[Smartie]

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That plus targeting red states. Last time when Trump put tariffs on EU steel, the EU put tariffs on Harley Davidsons which were made in Mitch McConnels state. Canada (and Mexico) needs to target trump voters as much as possible.


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Trump has been saying he’s going to introduce the tariffs for a long time and those they’re being imposed upon have had plenty of time to come up with a suitable strategy - like the Harley Davidson one mentioned above.

The EU don’t want a trade war but are ready for one.

[s.a.m]

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That plus targeting red states. Last time when Trump put tariffs on EU steel, the EU put tariffs on Harley Davidsons which were made in Mitch McConnels state. Canada (and Mexico) needs to target trump voters as much as possible.


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British Columbia have already announced a ban on purchase of alcohol from red states, and Nova Scotia have ordered all American alcohol to be removed from shelves on the 4th.

[Colr]

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British Columbia have already announced a ban on purchase of alcohol from red states, and Nova Scotia have ordered all American alcohol to be removed from shelves on the 4th.

Think I’ll treat myself to a bottle of Canadian Rye in solidarity.

[Bostonhibby]

I'll continue my long standing efforts to avoid all things American as best I can. To be honest as long as you're not addicted to cheap processed fast food it's not that hard even though more and more outlets seem to be springing up.



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[Colr]

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I'll continue my long standing efforts to avoid all things American as best I can. To be honest as long as you're not addicted to cheap processed fast food it's not that hard even though more and more outlets seem to be springing up.



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Cholula instead of Tabasco

[Bostonhibby]

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Cholula instead of Tabasco

Buy Mexican and Canadian it is then.

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[Paul1642]

Anyone know what, if anything these means for us here in Scotland / the UK?

[Bristolhibby]

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About those tariffs - "will there be some pain? Yes, maybe"

He seems to confuse a subsidy with just normal plain trade with another country.

They have things you want. You buy them from them. That isn’t a subsidy. That’s just trade.

Does he mean deficit? That’s fine, but it’s not always a bad thing. Especially if your trading partners have things you REALLY want.

J

[s.a.m]

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He seems to confuse a subsidy with just normal plain trade with another country.

They have things you want. You buy them from them. That isn’t a subsidy. That’s just trade.

Does he mean deficit? That’s fine, but it’s not always a bad thing. Especially if your trading partners have things you REALLY want.

J

Yeah. He does the same thing with NATO countries' spending commitments. Then there's his misunderstanding of the way tariffs work.

I'm never sure whether he believes this bollocks, or if he knows but thinks his following is too stupid or incurious to figure it out.

[Bostonhibby]

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He seems to confuse a subsidy with just normal plain trade with another country.

They have things you want. You buy them from them. That isn’t a subsidy. That’s just trade.

Does he mean deficit? That’s fine, but it’s not always a bad thing. Especially if your trading partners have things you REALLY want.

J

He seems to be blindsided by the link between tariffs and co-operating on drug smuggling the way he thinks it can be stopped.

It's almost as if no illegal drugs are grown, manufactured or distributed in the USA, maybe even by the orange guys supporters.

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[Hibs4185]

I never understand the American medical system and how they lay so much.

My wife is taking a medication that costs £99 across here. It’s made in America but in America the cheapest is $1300.

How is that even possible?

[grunt]

Why does the BBC call it a "tariff dispute"? It's an economic attack by Trump on Canada, Mexico and China using tariffs. There's no dispute involved.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cqjvg82lg4yt

[Smartie]

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Why does the BBC call it a "tariff dispute"? It's an economic attack by Trump on Canada, Mexico and China using tariffs. There's no dispute involved.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cqjvg82lg4yt

I think a lot of media outlets and governments are still tiptoeing around Trump, they’ll do that until they feel safe from punishment for calling things out as being exactly what they are.

I’d maybe go further than your launching of an economic attack and describe as a declaration of trade war - an unwinnable war where there are only losers.

[grunt]

Who elected Musk?

Note that the www.usaid.gov is no longer accessible.

[grunt]