Reform

[jamie_1875]

I think Refrom will take seats in Holyrood in 2026, going by polling about 8-12 but as it will all be list seats I am not sure who loses out. I suspect a mixture of the Tories, the Greens and Lib Dems. Alba seem to be nowhere.

[wookie70]

The only good that come from reform is if there is a massive difference in how they do electorally in Scotland and Westminster. Having the Tories and Labour repeatedly forced upon is is bad enough but I suspect Reform may be something that improves the chances of Independence.

[Stairway 2 7]

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I think Refrom will take seats in Holyrood in 2026, going by polling about 8-12 but as it will all be list seats I am not sure who loses out. I suspect a mixture of the Tories, the Greens and Lib Dems. Alba seem to be nowhere.

Last poll had them on 14 and almost all of theirs and Labour gains coming from the SNP, all their seats to be won on regional votes too. Their support seems spread with them coming third in Aberdeen, Dumbarton, Glasgow north east and Aaron for example.

https://ballotbox.scot/survation-november-2024/
BallotBoxScot
Poll Analysis: Survation 1st - 15th of November 2024

Holyrood Seats Projection:
SNP ~ 38
Labour ~ 36
Conservative ~ 21
Reform UK ~ 14
Green ~ 10
Lib Dem ~ 10

Independence:
No ~ 52% : Yes ~ 48%

[jamie_1875]

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The only good that come from reform is if there is a massive difference in how they do electorally in Scotland and Westminster. Having the Tories and Labour repeatedly forced upon is is bad enough but I suspect Reform may be something that improves the chances of Independence.

Didn't Scotland vote Labour and get Labour at the last election, not exactly being forced on us when they got more votes than any other party are they!

As for helping Indy if the poll above is accurate that's a massive pro UK majority in the Scottish Parliament for 2026.

[AgentDaleCooper]

One big problem IMO is reflected in the coverage of what is going on in France just now - on the front page, it's all talk about Le Pen, she'll get all the headlines and the possibility of a government genuinely representing working people will be hidden from view whilst quashed. The centre (the political centre anyway, e.g. the PLP) would genuinely prefer fascism to anything even reflecting a post WW2 new deal, let alone socialism (for the many, that is). Hope to be proven a blathering idiot.

[NORTHERNHIBBY]

Getting a bit tired of hearing Nigel Fascist saying no,no,no when he hears something that he doesn't like , and then goes unchallenged. Heard that also from Clarkson, who is the current Reform centrefold. The media have to do better.

[Bostonhibby]

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Getting a bit tired of hearing Nigel Fascist saying no,no,no when he hears something that he doesn't like , and then goes unchallenged. Heard that also from Clarkson, who is the current Reform centrefold. The media have to do better.

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[McD]

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Getting a bit tired of hearing Nigel Fascist saying no,no,no when he hears something that he doesn't like , and then goes unchallenged. Heard that also from Clarkson, who is the current Reform centrefold. The media have to do better.

Watched question time the other day, for the first time in donkeys. He spent a large proportion of the show just shouting over other people when they were talking, particularly alistair Campbell, who wasn’t cowed by it. At one point, the first time AC spoke, it probably took him 3 times as long to finish what he was saying because Farage kept bellowing his slogans at him. Barely checked by the presenter of course.


Wasn’t just AC either, he did it to the conservative and Labour representatives as well. Constant airtime from the BBC, however he wasn’t happy when a member of the audience described the rhetoric in Britain right now as very similar to 1930s Germany, and tried to bluster his way out of the comparison

[Bostonhibby]

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Watched question time the other day, for the first time in donkeys. He spent a large proportion of the show just shouting over other people when they were talking, particularly alistair Campbell, who wasn’t cowed by it. At one point, the first time AC spoke, it probably took him 3 times as long to finish what he was saying because Farage kept bellowing his slogans at him. Barely checked by the presenter of course.


Wasn’t just AC either, he did it to the conservative and Labour representatives as well. Constant airtime from the BBC, however he wasn’t happy when a member of the audience described the rhetoric in Britain right now as very similar to 1930s Germany, and tried to bluster his way out of the comparison

He certainly does enjoy airtime and other media coverage that seems disproportionate to his parties tiny parliamentary presence but that ones down to our media and it's owners and influencers respectively.

The laxity he enjoys on the likes of question time and Keunsberg is even more adulation based than even Bozo enjoyed and that takes some doing.

Bullies tend to shout loudest and shout people down and it seems to be a characteristic of some of the people who are now turning to reform in parts of England, notably a few traditionally tory areas.

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[Ozyhibby]

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He certainly does enjoy airtime and other media coverage that seems disproportionate to his parties tiny parliamentary presence but that ones down to our media and it's owners and influencers respectively.

The laxity he enjoys on the likes of question time and Keunsberg is even more adulation based than even Bozo enjoyed and that takes some doing.

Bullies tend to shout loudest and shout people down and it seems to be a characteristic of some of the people who are now turning to reform in parts of England, notably a few traditionally tory areas.

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He gets on because he brings viewers unfortunately.


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[jamie_1875]

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He gets on because he brings viewers unfortunately.


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I was just thinking that, people saying they haven't watched QT in years but then tuning in to watch because he is on. Exactly why he is on.

[Bostonhibby]

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He gets on because he brings viewers unfortunately.


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Yeah, there's definitely a lot of folk attracted to his oratory at the moment.

Be intriguing to see how the talk converted to actual delivery if he ever found himself on the inside looking out rather than where he has permanently been in the past.

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[NORTHERNHIBBY]

I heard Farage on Nick Ferrari's show on LBC not long after the election and it was chummy to say the least. That didn't really bother me as they both peddle the same narrative but Ferrari gave him the platform to quite rightly make the point that he is now a democratically elected MP. What he didn't do though, was hold him to account in any way shape or form.

[Bostonhibby]

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I heard Farage on Nick Ferrari's show on LBC not long after the election and it was chummy to say the least. That didn't really bother me as they both peddle the same narrative but Ferrari gave him the platform to quite rightly make the point that he is now a democratically elected MP. What he didn't do though, was hold him to account in any way shape or form.

Farage is big on rights, the right to be heard but responsibility and accountability doesn't seem like a strong point

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[Andy Bee]

Nick Candy the property billionaire now the Reform Party treasurer and pledging over a £1m in donations. He's also predicting another £40m donations from business owners who previously funded the Tories, that'll take Reform into the levels of Tory and Labour finances. Add to that the rumours of Musks £100m and if indeed it's true that money wins elections then PM Farage is a possibility. Worryingly for Scotland, they'll have the funds to field a candidate in every constituency for regional and list votes in 2026. We're going to see a seriously toxic Scottish Tory Party in the next year or so to combat Reform.

[Smartie]

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Nick Candy the property billionaire now the Reform Party treasurer and pledging over a £1m in donations. He's also predicting another £40m donations from business owners who previously funded the Tories, that'll take Reform into the levels of Tory and Labour finances. Add to that the rumours of Musks £100m and if indeed it's true that money wins elections then PM Farage is a possibility. Worryingly for Scotland, they'll have the funds to field a candidate in every constituency for regional and list votes in 2026. We're going to see a seriously toxic Scottish Tory Party in the next year or so to combat Reform.

Is a serious split in the right wing vote that bad a thing?

And re them putting up candidates in Scotland etc - one trip to Ibrox would suggest that there are many who would support their position and that has always been the case. Whilst it's an unpleasant thought and I am absolutely no fan of their policies - is it not a feature of a stronger democracy that people have someone to vote for who represents their own values, hopes and aspirations, even if they are vile?

[Ozyhibby]

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Is a serious split in the right wing vote that bad a thing?

And re them putting up candidates in Scotland etc - one trip to Ibrox would suggest that there are many who would support their position and that has always been the case. Whilst it's an unpleasant thought and I am absolutely no fan of their policies - is it not a feature of a stronger democracy that people have someone to vote for who represents their own values, hopes and aspirations, even if they are vile?

Reform will take votes from Labour as well. Lots of them. Labour won a landslide on 34% of the vote. I wouldn’t under estimate what Reform are capable of.


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[Hibs4185]

This is why it’s imperative that all independence supporters put their differences aside and come together and vote strategically to gain an independence majority.

[Andy Bee]

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Is a serious split in the right wing vote that bad a thing?

And re them putting up candidates in Scotland etc - one trip to Ibrox would suggest that there are many who would support their position and that has always been the case. Whilst it's an unpleasant thought and I am absolutely no fan of their policies - is it not a feature of a stronger democracy that people have someone to vote for who represents their own values, hopes and aspirations, even if they are vile?

On the point of representing your own values, do Reform represent any given values or are those values simply manufactured and peddled by the MSM at an alarming rate in the quest to secure power, is that democracy?

If you want democracy then Direct Democracy and Popular Sovereignty are the only way I can think of.

[jamie_1875]

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This is why it’s imperative that all independence supporters put their differences aside and come together and vote strategically to gain an independence majority.

There is an Independence majority now in the Scottish Parliament. SNP + Greens + Alba.

If a large enough percentage of people voted Reform then while many dislike their politics isn't it right they get elected officials, that's democracy isn't it?

That old saying I may not like what you have to say but I will defend your right to say it etc.

[Ozyhibby]

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This is why it’s imperative that all independence supporters put their differences aside and come together and vote strategically to gain an independence majority.

Given the SNP has now fallen back in popularity then a both votes SNP strategy is now worthwhile again as in 2011.


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[Hibs4185]

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Given the SNP has now fallen back in popularity then a both votes SNP strategy is now worthwhile again as in 2011.


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Crucially yes is now at 54%. If the majority of those 54% vote strategically we could be in good shape.

Wish the guys who do x posts on twitter about which area and voting strategy is best, were a bit more prominent

[Smartie]

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There is an Independence majority now in the Scottish Parliament. SNP + Greens + Alba.

If a large enough percentage of people voted Reform then while many dislike their politics isn't it right they get elected officials, that's democracy isn't it?

That old saying I may not like what you have to say but I will defend your right to say it etc.

That's sort of my take on it.

I also think that we have a unique opportunity in Scotland where the SNP can ruthlessly tackle them head on and call out their nonsense - which is the way to beat them. Let them have their say, let them make their arguments and beat them with a stronger one. The main parties down South have their hands tied somewhat when it comes to this due to the terror of losing red wall voters. Large scale pandering is about all they can do.

[wookie70]

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Given the SNP has now fallen back in popularity then a both votes SNP strategy is now worthwhile again as in 2011.


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They will still not get as many Independent friendly MSPs doing it that way. The vote SNP twice showed how much power meant over Indi at the last election. We need a party that is clearly focused on Independence and that hasn't been the SNP for a while

[Paul1642]

I think the next Scottish parliament is going to be a tricky one with reform being the real wildcard.

I can’t see anyone taking a majority and I also can’t see any obvious collations which are both politically and mathematically possible on current seat projections.

The poll tracker Im looking at just now has seats (62 needed for a majority) as follows:

SNP - 50
Labour - 30
Conservatives - 16
Reform - 13
Greens - 10
Lib Dem’s - 10

If Labour continue to be unpopular in government their votes potentially decrease but where do they go?

[lapsedhibee]

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I think the next Scottish parliament is going to be a tricky one with reform being the real wildcard.

I can’t see anyone taking a majority and I also can’t see any obvious collations which are both politically and mathematically possible on current seat projections.

The poll tracker Im looking at just now has seats (62 needed for a majority) as follows:

SNP - 50
Labour - 30
Conservatives - 16
Reform - 13
Greens - 10
Lib Dem’s - 10

If Labour continue to be unpopular in government their votes potentially decrease but where do they go?

29 is a high number in Scotland for right-of-centre parties. The BBC's relentless airtiming of Farage is going to scupper Scottish politics just as it has UK politics.

[Andy Bee]

The latest Norstat poll for The Times has SNP ON 59 seats, Labour 20, Tory 19, Reform 13, Lib Dems 11 and Greens 7, I'm not thinking things will stay like that but assuming SNP lose a fair few percentage points because of the upcoming MSM onslaught over the next year or so, can the remaining parties form a Government including Reform, it's political suicide aint it?

[Jones28]

Which seats in Scotland are polling for Reform?

[Stairway 2 7]

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Which seats in Scotland are polling for Reform?

The polls vary massively so wouldn't put to much into them this far out from election but reform have came third in a number of council elections in recent months. It's all over from Aberdeen, Dumbarton, Glasgow, Aaron. If they pump money in and have the media the will be clear in at least 4th it looks

[Ozyhibby]

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The latest Norstat poll for The Times has SNP ON 59 seats, Labour 20, Tory 19, Reform 13, Lib Dems 11 and Greens 7, I'm not thinking things will stay like that but assuming SNP lose a fair few percentage points because of the upcoming MSM onslaught over the next year or so, can the remaining parties form a Government including Reform, it's political suicide aint it?

Where do reform voters come from? I would say primarily former Tory voters very closely followed by former Labour voters?
Maybe Lib Dem and SNP behind that? Greens very unlikely.


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