Housing

[Moulin Yarns]

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You've just taken us back to the start of our exchange. Will this never end??????

Your £185K figure, as used in the links you have posted is a median average. Using the median to make a point can easily lead to false conclusions.

The mean average for Scotland is around £216K. Using the mean can also lead to false conclusions but the mean is what people commonly think of when they see the word 'average in this context - not median and not mode (God help us!)

The mean average in Edinburgh is over £300K. The mean average in East Lothian is also over £300K. The mean average in Midlothian is over £230K and the mean average in West Lothian is over £200K. I suspect those figures will be more relatable to the majority of posters on here than your scottish median average is. Does that sound fair enough?

"The mean is typically better when the data follow a symmetric distribution. When the data are skewed, the median is more useful because the mean will be distorted by outliers.”


Sounds like median is a better method where edinburgh and Aberdeen are skewed one way while Inverclyde and east ayrshire are skewed the other. If government use a particular method there's probably a good reason.

[greenginger]

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The total number of residential property sales for 2021-2022 was 101,055, a decrease of 7.9% when compared with 2021-22.

The average price of a residential property in Scotland was £216,337, an increase of 7.1% when compared with 2021-22

The total value of the residential sales market in Scotland was £21.9 billion, a decrease of 1.4% when compared with 2021-22.

https://www.ros.gov.uk/data-and-stat...report-2022-23

However, there are significant regional variations at work. The rural property market seems worryingly inflated though. Alarming for younger people who live in areas like Western Isles, Orkney, Shetland, Argyll and Bute.

In Scotland, average prices increased by 7.3% in the year to September 2022, down from an increase of 8.8% in the year to August 2022.

Annual price change by local authority for Scotland

Low numbers of sales transactions in some local authorities, such as Orkney Islands, Na h-Eileanan Siar and Shetland Islands, can lead to volatility in the series.

Edinburgh's inflated prices......

Sept 2022 Sept 2021
City of Aberdeen £145,153 £148,697 -2.4%
City of Dundee £155,896 £143,331 8.8%
City of Edinburgh £337,087 £315,613 6.8%
City of Glasgow £176,087 £163,969 7.4%

https://www.gov.uk/government/statis...september-2022

The number of £1million to £5 million pound houses sold in Edinburgh is bound to skew the average price upwards.

A calculation using house sales less than £ 1 million might give a more accurate average of what Edinburgh prices are for the majority of citizens.

[Mibbes Aye]

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"The mean is typically better when the data follow a symmetric distribution. When the data are skewed, the median is more useful because the mean will be distorted by outliers.”


Sounds like median is a better method where edinburgh and Aberdeen are skewed one way while Inverclyde and east ayrshire are skewed the other. If government use a particular method there's probably a good reason.

What’s the median for Edinburgh then?

Edit::You mention outliers. But the mean average I quoted was stripped of outliers. As I said in my post.

[Moulin Yarns]

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What’s the median for Edinburgh then?

Edit::You mention outliers. But the mean average I quoted was stripped of outliers. As I said in my post.

Explain why both the UK government and house letting agents use the same figures but you think that they are wrong.

[Mibbes Aye]

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Explain why both the UK government and house letting agents use the same figures but you think that they are wrong.

I said that you using the Scottish median average could lead to false conclusions. It does. As you proved.

You said the Scottish median average was £185K and used that to make a point. But what you didn't answer was my question about the Edinburgh median average. It's around £100K higher. And the mean average in Edinburgh is well over £300K. That's a lot more relevant to people on here.

But if you won't answer about Edinburgh, what's the median average for Perth and Kinross?

I'm guessing it's significantly over £200K, quite a distance from your £185K figure. What do you think?

[Stairway 2 7]

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I said that you using the Scottish median average could lead to false conclusions. It does. As you proved.

You said the Scottish median average was £185K and used that to make a point. But what you didn't answer was my question about the Edinburgh median average. It's around £100K higher. And the mean average in Edinburgh is well over £300K. That's a lot more relevant to people on here.

But if you won't answer about Edinburgh, what's the median average for Perth and Kinross?

I'm guessing it's significantly over £200K, quite a distance from your £185K figure. What do you think?

But isn't England still above both ways you measures it and that was the original point. I've been skimming to be honest because I'm not that interested in if the ONS are using the wrong system

[Moulin Yarns]

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I said that you using the Scottish median average could lead to false conclusions. It does. As you proved.

You said the Scottish median average was £185K and used that to make a point. But what you didn't answer was my question about the Edinburgh median average. It's around £100K higher. And the mean average in Edinburgh is well over £300K. That's a lot more relevant to people on here.

But if you won't answer about Edinburgh, what's the median average for Perth and Kinross?

I'm guessing it's significantly over £200K, quite a distance from your £185K figure. What do you think?

I haven't a clue what edinburgh figures are, and to be honest, I don't care. The government published the figures, why not take it up with them if you are convinced that they are wrong. 🙄

[Moulin Yarns]

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But isn't England still above both ways you measures it and that was the original point. I've been skimming to be honest because I'm not that interested in if the ONS are using the wrong system

Agreed.

[Ozyhibby]

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/...record-levels/

Who could have predicted this though?


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[Mibbes Aye]

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I haven't a clue what edinburgh figures are, and to be honest, I don't care. The government published the figures, why not take it up with them if you are convinced that they are wrong. ��

My point all along has been that you using the Scottish median average in the context you did could or would lead to false conclusions. I think we have established that.

As for government publications I’m more than confident that statisticians and data analysts from SG ASD, ISD, PHS, the Improvement Service, Healthcare Improvement Scotland, the other national scrutiny bodies and whoever else you like, would acknowledge the risks of making points based on single-source evidence, particularly using one type of average. It’s foolish, prone to inaccuracy and usually a political choice in my experience.

[Moulin Yarns]

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My point all along has been that you using the Scottish median average in the context you did could or would lead to false conclusions. I think we have established that.

As for government publications I’m more than confident that statisticians and data analysts from SG ASD, ISD, PHS, the Improvement Service, Healthcare Improvement Scotland, the other national scrutiny bodies and whoever else you like, would acknowledge the risks of making points based on single-source evidence, particularly using one type of average. It’s foolish, prone to inaccuracy and usually a political choice in my experience.

But correct nonetheless. 😂😂

I'm not using anything other than published figures which are verified.


Edit : this from the UK government site.

Headline statistics for January 2023
The average price of a property in Scotland was
£185,016

The annual price change of a property in Scotland was
1.0%

The monthly price change of a property in Scotland was
-0.5%

The index figure for Scotland (January 2015 = 100) was
137.1

[Stairway 2 7]

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My point all along has been that you using the Scottish median average in the context you did could or would lead to false conclusions. I think we have established that.

As for government publications I’m more than confident that statisticians and data analysts from SG ASD, ISD, PHS, the Improvement Service, Healthcare Improvement Scotland, the other national scrutiny bodies and whoever else you like, would acknowledge the risks of making points based on single-source evidence, particularly using one type of average. It’s foolish, prone to inaccuracy and usually a political choice in my experience.

Your acting like MY compiled the data. It's the office of national statistics that use these figures. Some of the best statisticians in the country at ONS will be looking at this thread with interest

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/housepriceindex/january2023#:~:text=The%20average%20UK%20house%20p rice,in%20Northern%20Ireland%20(10.2%25).

[Ozyhibby]

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Your acting like MY compiled the data. It's the office of national statistics that use these figures. Some of the best statisticians in the country at ONS will be looking at this thread with interest

.

The way the discussion has gone I doubt anyone is looking at this thread now.


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[Moulin Yarns]

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Your acting like MY compiled the data. It's the office of national statistics that use these figures. Some of the best statisticians in the country at ONS will be looking at this thread with interest

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/housepriceindex/january2023#:~:text=The%20average%20UK%20house%20p rice,in%20Northern%20Ireland%20(10.2%25).

Thanks, I said yesterday "don't shoot the messenger" but it looks like that's what is happening anyway.

[marinello59]

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https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/...record-levels/

Who could have predicted this though?


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I agree, the right wing response to what are minor restrictions on rent increases for existing tenants has been all too predictable.
There are multiple reasons why rents for new tenants are getting dearer, blaming this legislation alone is ludicrous. Rents are increasing at a similar rate in England, I may be wrong but I don’t think the Tories have enacted a rent freeze down there.

[Ozyhibby]

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I agree, the right wing response to what are minor restrictions on rent increases for existing tenants has been all too predictable.
There are multiple reasons why rents for new tenants are getting dearer, blaming this legislation alone is ludicrous. Rents are increasing at a similar rate in England, I may be wrong but I don’t think the Tories have enacted a rent freeze down there.

Rents are rising faster in Scotland.


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[marinello59]

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Rents are rising faster in Scotland.


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Less than a 1% difference isn’t it? Which suggests that my point about the rent increases being due to more than the minor restrictions on rent increases for existing tenants being the main driving force here may hold water.

[Ozyhibby]

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Less than a 1% difference isn’t it? Which suggests that my point about the rent increases being due to more than the minor restrictions on rent increases for existing tenants being the main driving force here may hold water.

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[marinello59]

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And the National figures? Having already seen an argument on the use of statistics here I don’t really want to go down that line but the national figures show a difference of about 0.5 %. (Google it.) xEven with your figures you can’t blame the small restrictions placed on landlords for the bulk of rent increases for new tenants.

[RyeSloan]

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And the National figures? Having already seen an argument on the use of statistics here I don’t really want to go down that line but the national figures show a difference of about 0.5 %. (Google it.) xEven with your figures you can’t blame the small restrictions placed on landlords for the bulk of rent increases for new tenants.

Obviously it’s impossible to tell…I mentioned earlier about the Gordon Knot of interventions and here we have a debate about yet another one!

But none the less to see both of Scotlands biggest cities in the top 3 of rental increases in the whole of the U.K. during a rather moribund period of economic activity is probably somewhat surprising.

Correlation and causation n all that and good luck to anyone trying to prove direct causation to one policy but none the less the weight of evidence on exactly the type of rental controls applied would suggest that yet again they have had a distorting and ultimately opposite effect to their intention.

I’m sure Patrick Harvie and co think they have done a swell job and the link above shows how proud they are ‘leading the way’. Ultimately though to pretend you can control the cost of rents when interest rates have risen at an unprecedented rate to a level not seen for over a decade an a half is just a folly.

Add in an ever more inflationary tax regime (second house stamp duty, removal of tax breaks etc.) its madness to think you can just mandate 0% increases for x time then mandate 3% increase and then suggest you’ll control even more to make sure it’s ‘fair’.

All that happens is you layer more unintended consequences on top of more unintended consequences until guess what you end up in exactly the mess we see before us now.

[superfurryhibby]

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Obviously it’s impossible to tell…I mentioned earlier about the Gordon Knot of interventions and here we have a debate about yet another one!

But none the less to see both of Scotlands biggest cities in the top 3 of rental increases in the whole of the U.K. during a rather moribund period of economic activity is probably somewhat surprising.

Correlation and causation n all that and good luck to anyone trying to prove direct causation to one policy but none the less the weight of evidence on exactly the type of rental controls applied would suggest that yet again they have had a distorting and ultimately opposite effect to their intention.

I’m sure Patrick Harvie and co think they have done a swell job and the link above shows how proud they are ‘leading the way’. Ultimately though to pretend you can control the cost of rents when interest rates have risen at an unprecedented rate to a level not seen for over a decade an a half is just a folly.

Add in an ever more inflationary tax regime (second house stamp duty, removal of tax breaks etc.) its madness to think you can just mandate 0% increases for x time then mandate 3% increase and then suggest you’ll control even more to make sure it’s ‘fair’.

All that happens is you layer more unintended consequences on top of more unintended consequences until guess what you end up in exactly the mess we see before us now.

So good luck to anyone attributing direct correlation to anyone policy, then immediately you state that the weight of evidence suggests that rent control have a distorting and ultimately opposite effect to their intention?

The rise in rent for new tenants in Edinburgh and Glasgow, sitting at over 13% seems much more to do with profiteering landlords extorting all they can from a vulnerable marketplace. Are these not rises that are considerably greater than inflation or any rise in interest rates (bank of England base rate sitting at 5.25%)?

[Just Alf]

It's noticeable that the areas with higher than average increases are generally also where there's university students so a highr number of new tenancies each year.

As an aside, I know some students have kept their rental going over summer even though they've gone home just to lock in the level of rent.

[Ozyhibby]

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It's noticeable that the areas with higher than average increases are generally also where there's university students so a highr number of new tenancies each year.

As an aside, I know some students have kept their rental going over summer even though they've gone home just to lock in the level of rent.

You are correct on both points. That is one of the market distortions that happen with rent controls. People hang on to properties no matter how unsuitable for them because they want to lock in the price.
It doesn’t take long on google to read up on the history of failure around the world of this policy. It is surely a sign of madness that we think that in Scotland, we are the only people who can make it work? Are we special?
It’s not just the housing market this hurts. It will hurt the economy as well. Young people will be discouraged from moving here due to lack of houses available for rent. That will hurt employers. Students may drop out of courses as financial pressures hit. There are unintended consequences of this all over the place.


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[Ozyhibby]

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So good luck to anyone attributing direct correlation to anyone policy, then immediately you state that the weight of evidence suggests that rent control have a distorting and ultimately opposite effect to their intention?

The rise in rent for new tenants in Edinburgh and Glasgow, sitting at over 13% seems much more to do with profiteering landlords extorting all they can from a vulnerable marketplace. Are these not rises that are considerably greater than inflation or any rise in interest rates (bank of England base rate sitting at 5.25%)?

The exact effects of this policy that were predicted based on the evidence seen around the world where ever this policy has been tried are happening. You can blame it on something else if you like.
Name calling landlords doesn’t help. They at least had the good sense to oppose the policy and explain why.


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[marinello59]

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The exact effects of this policy that were predicted based on the evidence seen around the world where ever this policy has been tried are happening. You can blame it on something else if you like.
Name calling landlords doesn’t help. They at least had the good sense to oppose the policy and explain why.


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So the only reason rents are rising for new tenants is because landlords were prevented from soaking their existing tenants so have been forced in to soaking new tenants instead?

[Ozyhibby]

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So the only reason rents are rising for new tenants is because landlords were prevented from soaking their existing tenants so have been forced in to soaking new tenants instead?

So they could have soaked both before? Why didn’t they?


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[superfurryhibby]

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So the only reason rents are rising for new tenants is because landlords were prevented from soaking their existing tenants so have been forced in to soaking new tenants instead?

Amazingly, blatant exploitative profiteering isn’t recognised as a contributory factor in these stats.

[Ozyhibby]

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Amazingly, blatant exploitative profiteering isn’t recognised as a contributory factor in these stats.

When did landlords suddenly start doing this?


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[RyeSloan]

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So good luck to anyone attributing direct correlation to anyone policy, then immediately you state that the weight of evidence suggests that rent control have a distorting and ultimately opposite effect to their intention?

The rise in rent for new tenants in Edinburgh and Glasgow, sitting at over 13% seems much more to do with profiteering landlords extorting all they can from a vulnerable marketplace. Are these not rises that are considerably greater than inflation or any rise in interest rates (bank of England base rate sitting at 5.25%)?

Indeed.

Review any evidence or studies on housing market policies and you’ll see plenty of comment about how difficult it is to attribute specific changes in that market to specific policies.

However, rental controls have been tried in many guises in many places and have had many many studies.

You’ll be hard pressed to find any that come to a conclusion that they work as intended or do not have (sometimes significant) side effects or unintended consequences.

[Just Alf]

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Amazingly, blatant exploitative profiteering isn’t recognised as a contributory factor in these stats.

Are you saying that Landords have been immune to Covid and the cost of living crisis?

That their mortgage, annual saftey inspections and any maintenance contractor costs haven't sky rocketed like they have for the rest of us?