Brexit - What Now.

[Ozyhibby]

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But more time will mean a longer time before joining. So either we delay entry to some way down the track or the EU is flexible on deficit criteria etc.

SM and CU access need not be delayed though and that is the jewel in the crown.


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[Ozyhibby]

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Brexit has been so bad economically that any argument against accepting any rules seems silly. Look at how much more money each Irish person has as take home pay each month and still try to argue against it

Yip. Staying in the UK now is costing Scots families thousands of pounds a year. It’s a very expensive union.


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[archie]

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Yip. Staying in the UK now is costing Scots families thousands of pounds a year. It’s a very expensive union.


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https://www.expatistan.com/cost-of-l...ingdom/ireland

[Ozyhibby]

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https://www.expatistan.com/cost-of-l...ingdom/ireland

We’ve been over this before. Ireland has a higher standard of living than Scotland. And it’s not close.


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[archie]

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We’ve been over this before. Ireland has a higher standard of living than Scotland. And it’s not close.


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You keep saying this as if it's an unarguable fact. Other views are available https://worldpopulationreview.com/co...ing-by-country

[Stairway 2 7]

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https://www.expatistan.com/cost-of-l...ingdom/ireland

I put up a financial Times article last month with data that showed in every single percentile of the population Irish have a significantly better disposable income, this is post all bills.

Plus expatistan is hopeless, I've used it before out of curiosity when travelling and sometimes it's not close

Here's the tweet thread and article. It's based on uk but last tweet shows Ireland.

https://mobile.twitter.com/jburnmurd...32839318605824


John Burn-Murdoch
@jburnmurdoch
NEW: income inequality in US & UK is so wide that while the richest are very well off, the poorest have a worse standard of living than the poorest in countries like Slovenia https://ft.com/content/ef265420-45e8...8-c951baa68945

Essentially, US & UK are poor societies with some very rich people.

A thread

[Ozyhibby]

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You keep saying this as if it's an unarguable fact. Other views are available https://worldpopulationreview.com/co...ing-by-country

Good for you, keep those Brexit blinkers on.


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[Ozyhibby]

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I put up a financial Times article last month with data that showed in every single percentile of the population Irish have a significantly better disposable income, this is post all bills.

Plus expatistan is hopeless, I've used it before out of curiosity when travelling and sometimes it's not close

Here's the tweet thread and article. It's based on uk but last tweet shows Ireland.

https://mobile.twitter.com/jburnmurd...32839318605824


John Burn-Murdoch
@jburnmurdoch
NEW: income inequality in US & UK is so wide that while the richest are very well off, the poorest have a worse standard of living than the poorest in countries like Slovenia https://ft.com/content/ef265420-45e8...8-c951baa68945

Essentially, US & UK are poor societies with some very rich people.

A thread

John Burn-Murdoch is pretty good. Lots of detail in his articles. Ed Conway at Sky is also good at this sort of stuff.


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[Stairway 2 7]

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John Burn-Murdoch is pretty good. Lots of detail in his articles. Ed Conway at Sky is also good at this sort of stuff.


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Yeah I like both. Graphs can make it much easier to understand, unfortunately the last few years they have been generally grimm and stark for the uk.

[Smartie]

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Yeah I like both. Graphs can make it much easier to understand, unfortunately the last few years they have been generally grimm and stark for the uk.

You can't express the pleasant scent of sovereignty in your nostrils via a graph.

Damn fools with their damn facts.

[archie]

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Good for you, keep those Brexit blinkers on.


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I didn't support Brexit.

[Stairway 2 7]

In more lovely brexit news food prices could massively increase due to brexit, well we do import 30% of our food from the EU

https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-b...ice-inflation/

[Kato]

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Essentially, US & UK are poor societies with some very rich people.

Without looking up the dictionary meaning that describes an oligarchy to me.



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[Ozyhibby]

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Without looking up the dictionary meaning that describes an oligarchy to me.



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We surely are?


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[ronaldo7]

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In more lovely brexit news food prices could massively increase due to brexit, well we do import 30% of our food from the EU

https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-b...ice-inflation/

It's only £400 million for businesses to be able to pass onto the consumer. Smell that sovereignty.😳

[archie]

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I put up a financial Times article last month with data that showed in every single percentile of the population Irish have a significantly better disposable income, this is post all bills.

Plus expatistan is hopeless, I've used it before out of curiosity when travelling and sometimes it's not close

Here's the tweet thread and article. It's based on uk but last tweet shows Ireland.

https://mobile.twitter.com/jburnmurd...32839318605824


John Burn-Murdoch
@jburnmurdoch
NEW: income inequality in US & UK is so wide that while the richest are very well off, the poorest have a worse standard of living than the poorest in countries like Slovenia https://ft.com/content/ef265420-45e8...8-c951baa68945

Essentially, US & UK are poor societies with some very rich people.

A thread

Thanks for posting this material. I note you dismiss out of hand something that doesn't support your view, but we'll let that pass!

I also didn't post material comparing NI and Ireland because, TBH, I saw academics reaching wildly divergent conclusions that related to their wider political perspective. But I don't doubt the FT snapshot at all. Here's an article from a couple of years ago that tries to strip out GDP distortions https://www.irishtimes.com/business/...rvey-1.4599245

I do however have a real issue with the 'Irish are rich, rich, rich' drumbeat we get on here. It's a bit personal as I have family in Ireland. The parents are working in decent jobs and they paint a very different picture. Now everybody grumbles, but they are extremely sceptical about the rosy picture of Ireland painted here. As an aside, they are the only ones in their circle with a 25 year mortgage - the rest have longer terms.

And how people in Ireland are feeling about the economy is reflected in the growth of Sein Fein as an electoral force.

Might Ireland be 'richer' than the UK right now? Maybe. Will it be in a year? Who knows?

None of this means that I am blindly defending the way the UK is run. Far from it. Nobody wants to see income disparity and worsening living standards. Things need to get better for ordinary people in this country. We also need to fix a lot about how this country is run. My personal target would include: stabilising the finances; sorting the NHS; and council house building.

Would going into the EU help that. Quite possibly. Is pointing at how an EU country is doing and saying that it's conclusive proof that we would be 'richer' if in the EU? No. Much of what is put forward as Ireland's is actually an extremely business friendly tax regime. I don't think that would be in the UK's interests.

[grunt]

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Is pointing at how an EU country is doing and saying that it's conclusive proof that we would be 'richer' if in the EU? No.

Irrelevant. There's no need to compare ourselves with other EU countries. Simple point is - Brexit is costing us money for zero benefit. Therefore, being back in the EU we would be better off than we are now. Simple.

[Stairway 2 7]

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Thanks for posting this material. I note you dismiss out of hand something that doesn't support your view, but we'll let that pass!

I also didn't post material comparing NI and Ireland because, TBH, I saw academics reaching wildly divergent conclusions that related to their wider political perspective. But I don't doubt the FT snapshot at all. Here's an article from a couple of years ago that tries to strip out GDP distortions https://www.irishtimes.com/business/...rvey-1.4599245

I do however have a real issue with the 'Irish are rich, rich, rich' drumbeat we get on here. It's a bit personal as I have family in Ireland. The parents are working in decent jobs and they paint a very different picture. Now everybody grumbles, but they are extremely sceptical about the rosy picture of Ireland painted here. As an aside, they are the only ones in their circle with a 25 year mortgage - the rest have longer terms.

And how people in Ireland are feeling about the economy is reflected in the growth of Sein Fein as an electoral force.

Might Ireland be 'richer' than the UK right now? Maybe. Will it be in a year? Who knows?

None of this means that I am blindly defending the way the UK is run. Far from it. Nobody wants to see income disparity and worsening living standards. Things need to get better for ordinary people in this country. We also need to fix a lot about how this country is run. My personal target would include: stabilising the finances; sorting the NHS; and council house building.

Would going into the EU help that. Quite possibly. Is pointing at how an EU country is doing and saying that it's conclusive proof that we would be 'richer' if in the EU? No. Much of what is put forward as Ireland's is actually an extremely business friendly tax regime. I don't think that would be in the UK's interests.

I never mentioned gbp as Ireland is an outlier. Its better to compare our gdp with the rest of the g7 we are doing clearly worse than all.

They aren't rich rich but over the last 10 years the gap in disposable income is getting massive between us and Ireland. They are clearly better off than us and have been for years and are projected to going forward. It's not just one section of the population its every quota of the population.

I don't think there is many people left that don't agree we would be better off back in the EU

[archie]

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Irrelevant. There's no need to compare ourselves with other EU countries. Simple point is - Brexit is costing us money for zero benefit. Therefore, being back in the EU we would be better off than we are now. Simple.

You might be right. But it's other posters who major on the comparisons. And given the discussion above, any viewing the basis of a Scottish negotiation or timescales? The reality is it may take some time

[archie]

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I never mentioned gbp as Ireland is an outlier. Its better to compare our gdp with the rest of the g7 we are doing clearly worse than all.

They aren't rich rich but over the last 10 years the gap in disposable income is getting massive between us and Ireland. They are clearly better off than us and have been for years and are projected to going forward. It's not just one section of the population its every quota of the population.

I don't think there is many people left that don't agree we would be better off back in the EU

I don't doubt Ireland is doing well. But I don't think the distinction isas clear cut as you think. It can also vary over time. There is no doubt that Brexit was an additional shock to the UK economy that we could have done without. Still no NHS though.

[Ozyhibby]

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I don't doubt Ireland is doing well. But I don't think the distinction isas clear cut as you think. It can also vary over time. There is no doubt that Brexit was an additional shock to the UK economy that we could have done without. Still no NHS though.

And yet they live longer.


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[archie]

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And yet they live longer.


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Again you are quoting snapshots as absolute cast in stone. These figures could change next year.

[Stairway 2 7]

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Again you are quoting snapshots as absolute cast in stone. These figures could change next year.

Everything could change in theory Bhutan could have an economy bigger than China but it goes against every projection. The same goes for the projections the uk performing worse than every g7 nation or the gap in disposable income to keep growing between us and Ireland

[Ozyhibby]

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Again you are quoting snapshots as absolute cast in stone. These figures could change next year.

Do you think it’s about to swing in our favour?


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[grunt]

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Do you think it’s about to swing in our favour?

"Provides data to support argument ...".

Response:

"Ah, but what if the data changes in future ...?"

[archie]

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Everything could change in theory Bhutan could have an economy bigger than China but it goes against every projection. The same goes for the projections the uk performing worse than every g7 nation or the gap in disposable income to keep growing between us and Ireland

Of course. But in my view Ireland is very exposed because of its reliance on low business taxes to pull in investment. This means that the economy is more vulnerable to external economic shocks than say Germany. As we have seen in recent history it is more boom and bust. Some on this board want that. But if we compare the UK to Ireland what are we getting at. Their membership of the EU or their business friendly tax regime? It's hard to disentangle, but I would say the EU benefits were about building infrastructure and modernising the country along with the single market. But the explosive growth was driven by low business tax driven investment and debt.

So I guess the question about the Irish model is what would we want to adopt. I would like to be in the EU, but wouldn't like their low business tax model

[archie]

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"Provides data to support argument ...".

Response:

"Ah, but what if the data changes in future ...?"

Well you do know that circumstances change over time and that will be reflected in data. It's not a fixed point.

[archie]

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Do you think it’s about to swing in our favour?


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No idea.

[Kato]

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I don't doubt Ireland is doing well. But I don't think the distinction isas clear cut as you think. It can also vary over time. There is no doubt that Brexit was an additional shock to the UK economy that we could have done without. Still no NHS though.

A "shock" infers a one off affect. Brexit wasn't a shock, its having an ongoing effect which in the midst of it is hard to quantify but its nor over yet.

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[Smartie]

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Of course. But in my view Ireland is very exposed because of its reliance on low business taxes to pull in investment. This means that the economy is more vulnerable to external economic shocks than say Germany. As we have seen in recent history it is more boom and bust. Some on this board want that. But if we compare the UK to Ireland what are we getting at. Their membership of the EU or their business friendly tax regime? It's hard to disentangle, but I would say the EU benefits were about building infrastructure and modernising the country along with the single market. But the explosive growth was driven by low business tax driven investment and debt.

So I guess the question about the Irish model is what would we want to adopt. I would like to be in the EU, but wouldn't like their low business tax model

I agree with your general premise that Ireland isn't the land of milk and honey where everything is rosy and always will be.

But by almost any metric they're doing better than Scotland and look likely to continue to do so.

I'm actually finding this part of the debate quite interesting - what they're doing right, what might be leaving them exposed, what we might learn from them and what we might do well to run a mile from.