Climate change and the impending apocalypse

[McSwanky]

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I guess in theory these cars supply the used market and therefore may mean that someone else buys them instead of a new car, but I've no idea how that shakes out in practice.

Yeah, but if everyone keeps their cars for 8 years as opposed to 3 or 4, surely there are less cars manufactured, which is a good thing (not for the car companies obviously)?

[Ozyhibby]

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Yeah, but if everyone keeps their cars for 8 years as opposed to 3 or 4, surely there are less cars manufactured, which is a good thing (not for the car companies obviously)?

Tax system is the best way to deliver that.


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[WhileTheChief..]

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Yeah, but if everyone keeps their cars for 8 years as opposed to 3 or 4, surely there are less cars manufactured, which is a good thing (not for the car companies obviously)?

Cars generally have a lifespan of 30 - 40 years.

All Europe's ex-hire cars, or older second hand ones, make their way to Africa or India or such like eventually.

Check how many old Mercs or BMWs are used as taxi's abroad to get an idea of the scale of it.

[McSwanky]

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Cars generally have a lifespan of 30 - 40 years.

All Europe's ex-hire cars, or older second hand ones, make their way to Africa or India or such like eventually.

Check how many old Mercs or BMWs are used as taxi's abroad to get an idea of the scale of it.

...and how many e.g. Renaults or Fiats do you see still operating after 30 - 40 years? Genuine question.

Also, where do the electric cars go? Do Africa and India have good charging networks for electric taxis too?

It's a numbers game for me:

If 100 people buy a new car every year, that's 100 more cars on the road every year.
If 100 people buy a new car every 2 years, that's 50 more cars on the road every year.
If 100 people buy a new car every 5 years, that's 20 more cars on the road every year.
If 100 people buy a new car every 10 years, that's 10 more cars on the road every year.

The number of cars removed from circulation (national or worldwide, it doesn't really matter) either doesn't change - in which case, there are more cars on the road - or it decreases in line with the number of new ones - in which case we are scrapping younger cars needlessly.

I'd love a new car every 3 years, really I would, but I keep my cars for a good bit longer than that (last 2 cars I've had I've kept from nearly new for at least 10 years). And on the whole, they do me absolutely fine.

[WhileTheChief..]

My general point is that it doesn't matter if you change cars every 3 or 10 years.

The same car will be around for the same amount of time, just with a different number of owners.

I recently sold mine. I now get the bus to work, which in Glasgow means fully electric. I'm doing my bit!!

[McSwanky]

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My general point is that it doesn't matter if you change cars every 3 or 10 years.

Sorry, but I totally disagree!

Extreme examples to illustrate:

If everyone in the world changed their car every year, then we'd be scrapping 1 year old cars, and producing another 100% new cars every year.

If everyone in the world held onto their car for 10 years, then we'd be scrapping 10 year old cars, and producing another 10% of new cars every year.

So if the people at the new end of the market get rid of their cars every 3 years on average as opposed to say 10, that has to either result in:

1. an accumulation of more cars in the world, or
2. an earlier scrapping of cars that could have a longer life.

Am I wrong?

[WhileTheChief..]

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Sorry, but I totally disagree!

Extreme examples to illustrate:

If everyone in the world changed their car every year, then we'd be scrapping 1 year old cars, and producing another 100% new cars every year.

If everyone in the world held onto their car for 10 years, then we'd be scrapping 10 year old cars, and producing another 10% of new cars every year.

So if the people at the new end of the market get rid of their cars every 3 years on average as opposed to say 10, that has to either result in:

1. an accumulation of more cars in the world, or
2. an earlier scrapping of cars that could have a longer life.

Am I wrong?

I work with figures but can't get my head around it, so will happily concede the basic point that less cars is better than more

[McSwanky]

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I work with figures but can't get my head around it, so will happily concede the basic point that less cars is better than more

More than happy to agree with that and leave it there!

[The_Exile]

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Sorry, but I totally disagree!

Extreme examples to illustrate:

If everyone in the world changed their car every year, then we'd be scrapping 1 year old cars, and producing another 100% new cars every year.

If everyone in the world held onto their car for 10 years, then we'd be scrapping 10 year old cars, and producing another 10% of new cars every year.

So if the people at the new end of the market get rid of their cars every 3 years on average as opposed to say 10, that has to either result in:

1. an accumulation of more cars in the world, or
2. an earlier scrapping of cars that could have a longer life.

Am I wrong?

Remember that there will always need to be more cars on the road as the population increases and more people want a car. If public transport was free (something which is a no brainer in my book) then you could make an argument for less cars (I would personally get rid of mine if public transport was free or very very heavily subsidised so to save me a load of cash). As it stands, a bus pass would cost me 60 quid a month, it costs me around £80 a month to run my car all in (that's fuel, insurance, road tax and including money I put away for servicing, MOT etc). Is it worth it to spend a fiver less a week and have to put up with journeys that take 2 or 3 times as long and sit on buses with the great unwashed? I took the bus to and from work for 20 years and it was utter misery, like, proper "I can't do this anymore" kind of stuff which forced me to learn to drive and get a car. A lot of folk wouldn't voluntarily go back to that even if it was free. As for electric cars, they are completely out of reach for working people and the bastion of the middle and upper classes who can say "Well you can't criticise me, I'm doing my bit".

I'm a year away from getting an honours degree in Environmental Science so I know a lot of what I'm saying goes against my own deeply held principles and is likely overly cynical, but sometimes you have to look at the overall picture and be realistic to the evidence around you pointing to one thing. Until public transport is better, free and less stressful then I don't think the number of cars on the road will reduce.

Example: Go onto google, plot a journey from Musselburgh Racecourse to Ocean Terminal by public transport, see how long that would take, how many buses would you need to rely on turning up and being on time? Then plot the same journey in a car. There will be routes like this from Stranraer to John O'Groats and everywhere in between, they are like public transport black holes, vast swathes of cities and countryside which you can't traverse with ease unless you have a car, and with more and more people having to move outside of cities to afford a roof over their heads it'll mean these people will need a car to get around easily.

Ultimately, I can only see the number of cars on the road going in one direction, and it certainly ain't down.

[McSwanky]

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Remember that there will always need to be more cars on the road as the population increases and more people want a car. If public transport was free (something which is a no brainer in my book) then you could make an argument for less cars (I would personally get rid of mine if public transport was free or very very heavily subsidised so to save me a load of cash). As it stands, a bus pass would cost me 60 quid a month, it costs me around £80 a month to run my car all in (that's fuel, insurance, road tax and including money I put away for servicing, MOT etc). Is it worth it to spend a fiver less a week and have to put up with journeys that take 2 or 3 times as long and sit on buses with the great unwashed? I took the bus to and from work for 20 years and it was utter misery, like, proper "I can't do this anymore" kind of stuff which forced me to learn to drive and get a car. A lot of folk wouldn't voluntarily go back to that even if it was free. As for electric cars, they are completely out of reach for working people and the bastion of the middle and upper classes who can say "Well you can't criticise me, I'm doing my bit".

I'm a year away from getting an honours degree in Environmental Science so I know a lot of what I'm saying goes against my own deeply held principles and is likely overly cynical, but sometimes you have to look at the overall picture and be realistic to the evidence around you pointing to one thing. Until public transport is better, free and less stressful then I don't think the number of cars on the road will reduce.

Example: Go onto google, plot a journey from Musselburgh Racecourse to Ocean Terminal by public transport, see how long that would take, how many buses would you need to rely on turning up and being on time? Then plot the same journey in a car. There will be routes like this from Stranraer to John O'Groats and everywhere in between, they are like public transport black holes, vast swathes of cities and countryside which you can't traverse with ease unless you have a car, and with more and more people having to move outside of cities to afford a roof over their heads it'll mean these people will need a car to get around easily.

Ultimately, I can only see the number of cars on the road going in one direction, and it certainly ain't down.

All true, but still better if people don't replace their cars every time the wind changes