Coronavirus

[LaMotta]

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It's pretty insignificant when you take it over a long period of time such as 2-3 years. All the 915 won't be in hospital all at once so there is no chance it will overwhelm the NHS.

Edit : your numbers don't really make sense. It would be 910 if taken over the whole of the 61,000,000. There's not 61m under 30s so the number would be about a 300 rather than 900.

Good point about the 61m. But also, worth saying it's not over 2-3 years - its over a 7 month period.

[JeMeSouviens]

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Are the numbers per 100,000 people or per 100,000 infections?

It's per 100K people in that category. So if there are about 1M unvaxed people aged 30-39 (my estimate), then you'd get 16 ICU admissions per week from them.

Except you wouldn't over a long period because their prior infections would limit things and the wave would thus recede.

[SChibs]

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Good point about the 61m. But also, worth saying it's not over 2-3 years - its over a 7 month period.

I said 2-3 years as I was assuming natural immunity would come into it. The current estimates are 6 months to 5 years for natural immunity as it will vary from person to person

[Sir David Gray]

142,224 cases and 77 deaths registered in the UK today.

Over 17,000 patients with Covid-19 in English hospitals.

[JeMeSouviens]

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I'm taking it from this article here which says current daily cases are higher in Scotland:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-59936338

I think it's a moot point anyway. England should have far higher numbers, they clearly don't and the two nations are basically at the same level, due to the fact they haven't been restricting businesses and social activities for weeks.

We are basically at the same level of infection with England despite restrictions being put in place weeks ago. They've made little to no difference as the figures show.

The SG got it wrong and I think it's effectively an admission of this if restrictions are lifted on the 17th.

"Far higher" is a stretch. Both countries have limited interventions, Eng's plan B is not hugely less restrictive than Scotland's (pretty weak) measures.

But leaving that and the ONS evidence to one side, erring on the side of caution is not necessarily "getting it wrong". You could equally say the UK gov took a risk and "got away with it". If I drive home above the speed limit and without a seatbelt but don't kill myself, does it vindicate my decision?

[LaMotta]

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I said 2-3 years as I was assuming natural immunity would come into it. The current estimates are 6 months to 5 years for natural immunity as it will vary from person to person

Fair enough mate - some people have had Covid several times since it emerged, but maybe your guess reflects that.

[SChibs]

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Fair enough mate - some people have had Covid several times since it emerged, but maybe your guess reflects that.

I know someone who's had covid 3 times and someone who hasn't had it. I myself have had it once in 2 years. As I said it varies person to person and so does how the infection actually affects people
I just don't believe in a one size fits all solution that's all

[AugustaHibs]

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142,224 cases and 77 deaths registered in the UK today.

Over 17,000 patients with Covid-19 in English hospitals.

Peak has been well and truly hit in England. Fair play to Johnson for holding his nerve on this occasion.

[Since90+2]

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"Far higher" is a stretch. Both countries have limited interventions, Eng's plan B is not hugely less restrictive than Scotland's (pretty weak) measures.

But leaving that and the ONS evidence to one side, erring on the side of caution is not necessarily "getting it wrong". You could equally say the UK gov took a risk and "got away with it". If I drive home above the speed limit and without a seatbelt but don't kill myself, does it vindicate my decision?

I don't agree they are not much less restrictive. They are to many businesses (and staff impacted by them) who were forced to operate at much lower capacity over the biggest revenue generating days of the year. If you don't work or own a business impacted by the restrictions then I suppose your outlook may be different.

My original point at the time was the SG seem to have got far too comfortable with the restrictions it is placing on it's population and businesses. It should be an absolute matter of last resort at all times.

I don't think the restrictions have made any material difference when you compare us to England. That IMO is a mistake.

[Scorrie]

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Totally anecdotal but not one single person I know who's had covid, and thats quite a few, have reported any symptoms lasting more than a week or two.

My 15 year old son has had no sense of taste for 9 months. Using the opportunity to feed him loads of veg...!

[Scorrie]

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Peak has been well and truly hit in England. Fair play to Johnson for holding his nerve on this occasion.

Not sure it is that simple. Johnson didn’t hold his nerve, he has bampot MPs who won’t let him do anything. Also here in England many people have gone into voluntary lockdown and not gone to pubs etc. This has meant hospitality has been hammered but the government don’t owe them anything as there wasn’t a formal lockdown. And a total of over 150,000 deaths since the pandemic started, on an island, shows that Johnson has blundered big style

[JeMeSouviens]

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I don't agree they are not much less restrictive. They are to many businesses (and staff impacted by them) who were forced to operate at much lower capacity over the biggest revenue generating days of the year. If you don't work or own a business impacted by the restrictions then I suppose your outlook may be different.

My original point at the time was the SG seem to have got far too comfortable with the restrictions it is placing on it's population and businesses. It should be an absolute matter of last resort at all times.

I don't think the restrictions have made any material difference when you compare us to England. That IMO is a mistake.

But time and time again we've seen that if you wait for the last resort, you've missed the boat.

[JeMeSouviens]

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Not sure it is that simple. Johnson didn’t hold his nerve, he has bampot MPs who won’t let him do anything. Also here in England many people have gone into voluntary lockdown and not gone to pubs etc. This has meant hospitality has been hammered but the government don’t owe them anything as there wasn’t a formal lockdown. And a total of over 150,000 deaths since the pandemic started, on an island, shows that Johnson has blundered big style

By all accounts coming from inside Downing St, his MO is to dither about and fail to make any decisions until they're too late.

[SteveHFC]

https://twitter.com/stvnews/status/1...861955089?s=21

This is a bit worrying.

[AugustaHibs]

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https://twitter.com/stvnews/status/1...861955089?s=21

This is a bit worrying.

The worst part of that is her saying “we hope omicron is milder”.


No nicola, we KNOW it’s milder. Why are they so scared to admit it?

[007]

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So why are the Govt saying people can only come out of isolation if they record negative tests on days 6 and 7? Sounds like they can't be relied upon to give an accurate result (if you've tested positive on a PCR, don't know what difference it makes if only with an LFT).

Maybe negative tests on days 6 and 7 is a reasonable indication someone isn't infectious however an lft within up to 90 days showing as positive doesn't mean you still have/are infectious. As the nurse in the previous post said, there can still be a very small amount of viral load in the nasal passage, which the lft might detect.

[SteveHFC]

https://twitter.com/thetimesscot/sta...082386955?s=21

Scotland’s national clinical director has admitted that closing nightclubs and cancelling football fixtures has made little difference to Scotland’s coronavirus case numbers compared with the more liberal regime in England.

https://twitter.com/bbcscotlandnews/...992649728?s=21

National clinical director Prof Jason Leitch says measures such as the closure of nightclubs are making a difference.

[Coco Bryce]

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https://twitter.com/thetimesscot/sta...082386955?s=21

Scotland’s national clinical director has admitted that closing nightclubs and cancelling football fixtures has made little difference to Scotland’s coronavirus case numbers compared with the more liberal regime in England.

https://twitter.com/bbcscotlandnews/...992649728?s=21

National clinical director Prof Jason Leitch says measures such as the closure of nightclubs are making a difference.

Proof that the press just tell you whatever they are told to tell you.

[CropleyWasGod]

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https://twitter.com/thetimesscot/sta...082386955?s=21

Scotland’s national clinical director has admitted that closing nightclubs and cancelling football fixtures has made little difference to Scotland’s coronavirus case numbers compared with the more liberal regime in England.

https://twitter.com/bbcscotlandnews/...992649728?s=21

National clinical director Prof Jason Leitch says measures such as the closure of nightclubs are making a difference.

Any chance of posting the full Times article?

[SteveHFC]

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Any chance of posting the full Times article?

It’s behind a paywall mate.

[Billy Whizz]

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https://twitter.com/thetimesscot/sta...082386955?s=21

Scotland’s national clinical director has admitted that closing nightclubs and cancelling football fixtures has made little difference to Scotland’s coronavirus case numbers compared with the more liberal regime in England.

https://twitter.com/bbcscotlandnews/...992649728?s=21

National clinical director Prof Jason Leitch says measures such as the closure of nightclubs are making a difference.

He was quoted on the BBC John Beattie show that closing nightclubs etc was making a difference

[Sir David Gray]

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https://twitter.com/stvnews/status/1...861955089?s=21

This is a bit worrying.

Really disappointing.

I had hoped that the masks would be ditched (at least legally) by Easter. Hearing that suggests that won't be the case.

I would like Sturgeon to expand on that a bit more. What kind of "longer term adaptations to pre-pandemic life" is she proposing?

[Ozyhibby]

https://twitter.com/paulbranditv/sta...766176769?s=21


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[Radium]

.

[CropleyWasGod]

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It’s behind a paywall mate.

Thought it might be 😁

My point is that these are the headlines from each article.The pieces themselves might provide a clue as to Why they are so different.

[Ozyhibby]

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[ronaldo7]

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Proof that the press just tell you whatever they are told to tell you.

Some folk just read the headlines too.

[stu in nottingham]

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Johnson refusing to answer the question as to whether he attended, saying that it needs an investigation!

'The email was sent by the Prime Minister's Principal Private Secretary Martin Reynolds to over a hundred employees in Number 10, including the Prime Minister's advisors, speechwriters and door staff.
In it, Mr Reynolds - a senior No 10 civil servant who has run Boris Johnson's private office since October 2019 - says:

"Hi all,
"After what has been an incredibly busy period it would be nice to make the most of the lovely weather and have some socially distanced drinks in the No10 garden this evening.
"Please join us from 6pm and bring your own booze!"

ITV News understands around 40 staff gathered in the garden that evening, eating picnic food and drinking. Crucially, they included the Prime Minister and his wife Carrie Johnson.'

https://www.itv.com/news/2022-01-10/...ht-of-lockdown

[Ozyhibby]

https://twitter.com/rewearmouth/stat...137793541?s=21


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[LunasBoots]

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From the tone of the Welsh Government, I think they are totally willing to put up with the anger that will come their way and have zero fans at six nations matches or force Wales to play in England. Just look at the way they have reacted to the situation with the pitch at Chester being on the opposite side of the border to the main stand and just the general vibes comming from Mark Drakeford, I think we are much more likely to align to their stance than to that of the English (UK) Government.

Agreed, clubs seem to be given information which I think may not come to pass, the lack of real scientific evidence around sport isnt great, I think that if crowds are not allowed back and football resumes then fans who've being seeing full houses elsewhere in England with very few issues are just going to turn up around grounds and pubs etc anyway. NS's answers to alot of things recently has been poor, almost like she speaks like people are unaware when most are that if you are vaccinated then it's pretty much a mild illness