Coronavirus

[Stairway 2 7]

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Won’t rise to it, was out all last weekend getting pished and having the time of my life

Anyway, more good news from Gauteng

https://twitter.com/rid1tweets/statu...054717955?s=21

If London was the same it would turn early next week, loads of variables so we'll see

[Stairway 2 7]

Lord frost resigns over plan b getting implemented. More restrictions just took a big step back from happening, boris won't last it

[Jack]

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Scotland is the first part of the UK to give boosters to 50% of over 12s

Can't remember when I thought of myself in the over 12s category lol

[Chorley Hibee]

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Is anyone else struggling to equate the minutes from that SAGE meeting with the research coming out of SA?

Absolutely, I said the same earlier this week.

[He's here!]

SAGE has called for an 'immediate' end to indoor mixing according to Sky.

[Pretty Boy]

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Is anyone else struggling to equate the minutes from that SAGE meeting with the research coming out of SA?

Academic competitiveness/jealousy?

I'm sure it's a feature. I think of Scotland and someone like Prof Hugh Pennington who has been largely sidelined and has taken to taking pot shots at the govt and their advisors. He's been scathing about both the approach we have taken and the people doing the advising, particularly around the sidelining of eminent virologists and, somewhat ironically, the government's insistence on using modelling and advice more suited to a flu type illness.

[Stairway 2 7]

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...ling-committee

a day from Omicron depending on how many more restrictions we’ll get – up to and very much including another lockdown. Earlier today I had an unexpected chance to ask questions of Prof Graham Medley, the chair of the Sage modelling committee. The Twitter thread has received a bit of attention (and comments) making it hard to read. So I’ll reprint it here.

As well as chairing Sage modellers, Prof Medley is with the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) which last weekend*published*a study on Omicron making the case for more restrictions. In a note sent to clients, JP Morgan pointed out that those scenarios assume Omicron was just as virulent as Delta. ‘But evidence from South Africa suggests that Omicron infections are milder,’ JP Morgan said. Adjust for this, it found, and the outlook changed dramatically.

“‘Bed occupancy by Covid-19 patients at the end of January would be 33% of the peak seen in January 2021. This would be manageable without further restrictions.’

So JP Morgan had spotted something pretty big; tweak one assumption and – suddenly – no need for lockdown.

Might it be that small and very-plausible tweaks to these scenarios can make quite a massive difference to the evidence for lockdown? If so, why would this fairly-important and fairly-basic fact not be presented by modellers to ministers – and to the general public? There is no one better to ask about how Sage works than Prof Medley, so I was thrilled for the chance to speak to him on Twitter. It was kind of him to make the time (he’s*still going, as far as I can make out).

The Sage paper-drop tonight – the 6,000-deaths-a-day one – is a ‘scenario’ and Prof Medley emphasises that a scenario is not a prediction. I then jumped in asking why the JP Morgan scenario was not published…

Screenshot_20211218-214203_Chrome.jpgScreenshot_20211218-214209_Chrome.jpg

I’m still not quite sure what to extract from the above. But Prof Medley seems to hint that he has been given a very limited brief, and asked to churn out worse-case scenarios without being asked to comment on how plausible they are.

“‘We generally model what we are asked to model. There is a dialogue in which policy teams discuss with the modellers what they need to inform their policy.’

Might this remit mean leaving out just-as-plausible, quite-important scenarios that would not require lockdown?

“‘Decision-makers are generally on only interested in situations where decisions have to be made.’

Note how careful he is to stay vague on whether any of the various scenarios in the Sage document are either plausible or likely.** What happened to the original system of presenting a ‘reasonable worse-case scenario’ together with a central scenario? Worryingly, we see none of that in tonight’s Sage papers.

From what Prof Medley says, it’s unclear that the central scenario is even being*presented*to ministers this time around. How are they supposed to make good decisions if there is no guidance about the probability of each scenario? I highly doubt that Sajid Javid is only asking them for pro-lockdown modelling. That instruction, if it is being issued, will have come from somewhere else.

Robert Dingwall, until recently a JCVI member, has*said*that Medley’s candour reveals “a fundamental problem of scientific ethics in Sage” as “the unquestioning response to the brief is very like that of SPI-B's behavioural scientists”. He suggests that the Covid inquiry looks into*all this

At a time when we have just been given a new set of ‘scenarios’ it might be good if someone – if not Prof Medley – would clear up what assumptions lie behind the new 6,000-a-day-dead scenario, and if emerging information about Omicron and its virulence have been taken into account. And how probable it is that a double-jabbed and increasingly boosted nation (with 95 per cent antibody coverage) could see this worst-case scenario come to pass. \

I’ve asked Prof Medley to come on Spectator TV, to have a longer conversation outside Twitter. He has*written for us*before so I hope he accepts. For now, although I often curse the platform, I should thank Twitter for giving me the chance to ask some questions of someone so*relevant to such an important*debate.

[mayo hibee]

It definitely feels now like we're heading for another lockdown, either under that name, or a lockdown in effect but under another name.

Possibly the question now is whether it happens this side of Christmas or whether they hold out for Christmas and bring it in between Christmas and New year.

[Hibrandenburg]

As of Monday, Germany has declared the UK as Corona Variant Area. This basically means that only German residents can travel from the UK to Germany. Rearrange the following words to make a well established phrase:

Door
Bolted
Close
Horse
Stable

[mayo hibee]

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Lord frost resigns over plan b getting implemented. More restrictions just took a big step back from happening, boris won't last it

I don't think that was the real reason he resigned, just a handy cover for his failure to achieve anything remotely productive with his Brexit negotiations.

[greenlex]

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As of Monday, Germany has declared the UK as Corona Variant Area. This basically means that only German residents can travel from the UK to Germany. Rearrange the following words to make a well established phrase:

Door
Bolted
Close
Horse
Stable

Yup just like the UK with South Africa etc etc. vaccination is the answer if only folk would open their eyes. It needs to happen all over the world though.

[greenlex]

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It definitely feels now like we're heading for another lockdown, either under that name, or a lockdown in effect but under another name.

Possibly the question now is whether it happens this side of Christmas or whether they hold out for Christmas and bring it in between Christmas and New year.

It’s not inevitable. It all depends on infections v hospitalisations and being able to keep the country as well as the nhs running. This is why the booster programme is important and being talked about at every opportunity by politicians.

[mayo hibee]

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It’s not inevitable. It all depends on infections v hospitalisations and being able to keep the country as well as the nhs running. This is why the booster programme is important and being talked about at every opportunity by politicians.

I agree to a point, but the issue seems to be that by the time we know the data in terms of hospitalisations, if the data is bad it will already be too late.

So the options are to wait it out and hope for the best, but with the risk of disaster if things go wrong - or to go for a pre-emptive lockdown to try to cover the risks, but create a situation where, if things turn out a lot better than feared, public support for any future restrictions that may be necessary takes a further hammering.

It's a terrible situation really and there's no obvious right answer.

[Moulin Yarns]

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Sunday Times poll more people than last month think nhs will cope this winter. In second poll big majority down want pubs closed, majority want only vaccinated using them

Attachment 25383Attachment 25384

Cue the outcry about 2 tier society and civil liberty

[Col2]

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Lord frost resigns over plan b getting implemented. More restrictions just took a big step back from happening, boris won't last it

I think he is running away from the disaster of all disasters, the Brexit deal
HE negotiated. What a total mess, this prick was instrumental with a terrible deal which is still settled and now walks away. Boris is next, will walk away leaving a total shambles and then doing after dinner speeches 6 months later.

[Moulin Yarns]

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SAGE has called for an 'immediate' end to indoor mixing according to Sky.

There goes my cocktails 😉

[ABZHFC]

https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/s...15931959468039

Good on Nicola Sturgeon calling out fear-mongering newspaper headlines and putting people's minds at ease. Big respect for her doing that

[degenerated]

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https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/s...15931959468039

Good on Nicola Sturgeon calling out fear-mongering newspaper headlines and putting people's minds at ease. Big respect for her doing that

Job done for the herald though, as even after sturgeon tweeted that Alec Cole Hamilton was still pushing the lie. Screenshot_2021-12-19-08-22-15-92_0b2fce7a16bf2b728d6ffa28c8d60efb.jpg

[Stairway 2 7]

I'd say saying in a televised address to parliament that on the bases of 24 hospitalisations in Denmark Omicron might be as bad as Delta, would lead to anxiety. Especially when after 5 times the numbers it shows about 70% less and with shorter stays, you don't chose to correct.

Also pretty much the only thing swinney says when they roll him out the cupboard is, we may need new restrictions

[Moulin Yarns]

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https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/s...15931959468039

Good on Nicola Sturgeon calling out fear-mongering newspaper headlines and putting people's minds at ease. Big respect for her doing that

Ah yes, fearmongering, just like people on here keep talking about there is a lockdown coming?!

[Moulin Yarns]

https://news.stv.tv/scotland/calls-f...-to-every-home

I'm not sure what Cole-Hamilton is saying, but is this a good idea? What would it do in the fight against covid?

[Pretty Boy]

I got my PCR result early this morning, positive as expected.

I'm a bit concerned though. I started to feel ropey on Wednesday afternoon, scratchy throat and a stuffy nose. LFT taken on Wednesday evening was negative but I booked a PCR anyway, also on Wednesday evening and also negative. I worked from home on Thursday awaiting the result, when it came back negative I put it down to a cold, took another LFT, negative, so went to work on Friday. On Friday we were informed someone in the office has tested positive. I sit right next to her so immediately booked a PCR, took an LFT on the way which came back positive. Subsequent PCR has, as said above, also come back positive.

My concern is I felt pretty lousy on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday but the negative tests meant I didn't isolate, as per the current guidance that wasn't breaking any rules. Saturday was no picnic but I started to feel better, this morning I feel almost back to normal. A bit of lingering fatigue and my throat is still scratchy but other than that I feel fine. I'm worried I have been walking about spreading for several days and am now going to sit in the house when I'm through the worst of it.

My fiance has all the same symptoms as me but continues to test negative. She's isolating anyway as she is a household contact but it seems highly unlikely she has been living with me for the last week, has the same symptoms but isn't infected. A couple of others I have spoken to have told similar stories, household contacts, same symptoms, negative tests.

I'm also a bit confused as to when to isolate from. The guidance is day 1 is from the onset of symptoms, which was Wednesday, however the fact I was testing negative then makes me think I should start the count from Friday.

[Del Boy]

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I got my PCR result early this morning, positive as expected.

I'm a bit concerned though. I started to feel ropey on Wednesday afternoon, scratchy throat and a stuffy nose. LFT taken on Wednesday evening was negative but I booked a PCR anyway, also on Wednesday evening and also negative. I worked from home on Thursday awaiting the result, when it came back negative I put it down to a cold, took another LFT, negative, so went to work on Friday. On Friday we were informed someone in the office has tested positive. I sit right next to her so immediately booked a PCR, took an LFT on the way which came back positive. Subsequent PCR has, as said above, also come back positive.

My concern is I felt pretty lousy on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday but the negative tests meant I didn't isolate, as per the current guidance that wasn't breaking any rules. Saturday was no picnic but I started to feel better, this morning I feel almost back to normal. A bit of lingering fatigue and my throat is still scratchy but other than that I feel fine. I'm worried I have been walking about spreading for several days and am now going to sit in the house when I'm through the worst of it.

My fiance has all the same symptoms as me but continues to test negative. She's isolating anyway as she is a household contact but it seems highly unlikely she has been living with me for the last week, has the same symptoms but isn't infected. A couple of others I have spoken to have told similar stories, household contacts, same symptoms, negative tests.

My wife was similar, felt crap for a week, took lateral flows every day - all negative. Then felt better but was a close contact following week so did a PCR which was positive- by which time she felt absolutely fine. Then isolated for 10 days as per rules

[Bostonhibby]

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I don't know if I'm as old as your Dad but I had AZ and felt crap. Moderna as the booster and was totally fine afterwards.

I'm a stubborn auld git too sometimes so I doubt this will help, but it might.

As my wife keeps on saying It's better than the alternative!

Similar in so many ways

Couple of hours after both AZ's I had a mild fever and headache so just went to sleep, following day, fine.

Pfizer booster gave me a slightly sore arm and a bruise but nothing else.



Sent from my SM-A750FN using Tapatalk

[Stairway 2 7]

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I got my PCR result early this morning, positive as expected.

I'm a bit concerned though. I started to feel ropey on Wednesday afternoon, scratchy throat and a stuffy nose. LFT taken on Wednesday evening was negative but I booked a PCR anyway, also on Wednesday evening and also negative. I worked from home on Thursday awaiting the result, when it came back negative I put it down to a cold, took another LFT, negative, so went to work on Friday. On Friday we were informed someone in the office has tested positive. I sit right next to her so immediately booked a PCR, took an LFT on the way which came back positive. Subsequent PCR has, as said above, also come back positive.

My concern is I felt pretty lousy on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday but the negative tests meant I didn't isolate, as per the current guidance that wasn't breaking any rules. Saturday was no picnic but I started to feel better, this morning I feel almost back to normal. A bit of lingering fatigue and my throat is still scratchy but other than that I feel fine. I'm worried I have been walking about spreading for several days and am now going to sit in the house when I'm through the worst of it.

My fiance has all the same symptoms as me but continues to test negative. She's isolating anyway as she is a household contact but it seems highly unlikely she has been living with me for the last week, has the same symptoms but isn't infected. A couple of others I have spoken to have told similar stories, household contacts, same symptoms, negative tests.

You usually only get positive lft when you have enough viral load that you would be able to pass the virus on, can stillbe positivewith low load and negative lft. The pcr tests are pretty accurate though, could you have had a cold or flu last week.

[Jack]

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https://news.stv.tv/scotland/calls-f...-to-every-home

I'm not sure what Cole-Hamilton is saying, but is this a good idea? What would it do in the fight against covid?

Probably a good idea although stealing the idea from another country and suggesting the Scottish Government run with it in the week before Christmas just shows the idiot for what he is.

[Sir David Gray]

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I'd say saying in a televised address to parliament that on the bases of 24 hospitalisations in Denmark Omicron might be as bad as Delta, would lead to anxiety. Especially when after 5 times the numbers it shows about 70% less and with shorter stays, you don't chose to correct.

Also pretty much the only thing swinney says when they roll him out the cupboard is, we may need new restrictions

Yep agreed.

[Pretty Boy]

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You usually only get positive lft when you have enough viral load that you would be able to pass the virus on, can stillbe positivewith low load and negative lft. The pcr tests are pretty accurate though, could you have had a cold or flu last week.

I suppose I could have just had a cold but the symptoms I had Friday and Saturday were just like a heightened version of what I was feeling the couple of days before.

[Stairway 2 7]

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I suppose I could have just had a cold but the symptoms I had Friday and Saturday were just like a heightened version of what I was feeling the couple of days before.

Another thing speculated is Omicron is now a more throat infection rather than lung. That mixed with the faster onset I have read some suggest it might show symptoms quicker, also render lfts and pcrs less useful. Early doors but informed speculation, particularly in being more in the throat which many hoped would eventually happen

[Pretty Boy]

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Another thing speculated is Omicron is now a more throat infection rather than lung. That mixed with the faster onset I have read some suggest it might show symptoms quicker, also render lfts and pcrs less useful. Early doors but informed speculation, particularly in being more in the throat which many hoped would eventually happen

All my symptoms have definitely been more in the nose and throat than the chest. Any coughing has been a result of post nasal drip rather than coming from the chest itself.

I'm wary of saying this as I don't want to downplay something that can still be serious for a lot of people but it really has been just like a heavy cold. I'd even say I have started to feel better quicker than I do with a cold. I had the flu 6 or 7 years ago and felt like I was on the way out, this has been more of an inconvenience.

Obviously that won't be everyone's experience and I'm hugely grateful for my 2 vaccine doses and what appears to be a realtively mild, self limiting episode .