Winning At Home

[matty_f]

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We should be finishing ahead of Dundee United is the point. It was a reference to Saturday and so many other home games where we have dropped points that we really shouldn't.

I think the home record needs discussed. Is 14 home wins out of 33 good enough for a club like ours? Or taking 52.5% of available points at home?

4th best home record of all time for Hibs managers. Let’s discuss it - it’s excellent.

[B.H.F.C]

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4th best home record of all time for Hibs managers. Let’s discuss it - it’s excellent.

You really think 14 wins from 33 is excellent?

Chuck in some absolute horror shows as well.

Most can agree away form has been excellent.

I know you’re going to come back and talk about how it compares historically so I’m not really sure why I’m asking. But if folk really thought we were excellent at home I’m sure more would be making more of an effort to attend.

[90274]

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You really think 14 wins from 33 is excellent?

Chuck in some absolute horror shows as well.

Most can agree away form has been excellent.

I know you’re going to come back and talk about how it compares historically so I’m not really sure why I’m asking. But if folk really thought we were excellent at home I’m sure more would be making more of an effort to attend.

I think we'd currently be clear at the top just now if our home record was excellent. Had we managed to win on Saturday we'd have been 2 points off top.

I guess another point is that, as a club, we have grown and we now have an owner with cash who will demand better than history suggests.

A comment that is often made is that Jack Ross is under more scrutiny than previous managers, well yes, because of the squad we have, investment that's been made and general resources along with the infrastructure the club now has.

[Danderhall Hibs]

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I think we'd currently be clear at the top just now if our home record was excellent. Had we managed to win on Saturday we'd have been 2 points off top.

I guess another point is that, as a club, we have grown and we now have an owner with cash who will demand better than history suggests.

A comment that is often made is that Jack Ross is under more scrutiny than previous managers, well yes, because of the squad we have, investment that's been made and general resources along with the infrastructure the club now has.

There’s threads and posts on here about how the squad is threadbare and why the dof left because of his failings in not getting in the players needed. Is the squad good again today? It wasn’t on Saturday.

[90274]

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There’s threads and posts on here about how the squad is threadbare and why the dof left because of his failings in not getting in the players needed. Is the squad good again today? It wasn’t on Saturday.

So if our home form continues to be a 52.5% point return rate from available points this season, who's fault will it be Jack Ross or Graeme Mathie?

[Danderhall Hibs]

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So if our home form continues to be a 52.5% point return rate from available points this season, who's fault will it be Jack Ross or Graeme Mathie?

Are you answering a question with a question? Clearly it’s a team effort isn’t it?

What is a good win rate % for a Hibs manager? And do we disregard the threadbare squad and pretend it’s not?

[90274]

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Are you answering a question with a question? Clearly it’s a team effort isn’t it?

What is a good win rate % for a Hibs manager? And do we disregard the threadbare squad and pretend it’s not?

There were clearly failings in the transfer window that's left us short, but the window is now closed so it is over to Jack Ross to show how good a coach he is and work with what he has, which we understand is hampered with injuries too.

What is a good home record for us to aspire to that is realistic? Good question. It would be good to know what our best is since the SPL era from 2000 onwards. I think seasons such as 00/01 04/05 05/06 09/10 17/18 and 20/21 could provide good context as a start.

[B.H.F.C]

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There’s threads and posts on here about how the squad is threadbare and why the dof left because of his failings in not getting in the players needed. Is the squad good again today? It wasn’t on Saturday.

The squad was shown up for what it is on Saturday

The team we had on the pitch should still have been capable of a lot, lot more. Actually putting a bit of effort in for starters.

[Key West]

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The squad was shown up for what it is on Saturday

The team we had on the pitch should still have been capable of a lot, lot more. Actually putting a bit of effort in for starters.

Agree 100%.

[Danderhall Hibs]

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The squad was shown up for what it is on Saturday

The team we had on the pitch should still have been capable of a lot, lot more. Actually putting a bit of effort in for starters.

no denying that. Like they did a couple of weeks ago against the same opposition.

[B.H.F.C]

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no denying that. Like they did a couple of weeks ago against the same opposition.

Away from home. Which is probably quite important in the context of this thread. Why so different?

[matty_f]

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I think we'd currently be clear at the top just now if our home record was excellent. Had we managed to win on Saturday we'd have been 2 points off top.

I guess another point is that, as a club, we have grown and we now have an owner with cash who will demand better than history suggests.

A comment that is often made is that Jack Ross is under more scrutiny than previous managers, well yes, because of the squad we have, investment that's been made and general resources along with the infrastructure the club now has.

When Man City got their mega money it took them years to win the league, that’s with a huge investment into their squad.

We’ve had good investment but still modest in the grand scheme of things, I’m all for increasing standards and expectations but you don’t do it overnight.

[90274]

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When Man City got their mega money it took them years to win the league, that’s with a huge investment into their squad.

We’ve had good investment but still modest in the grand scheme of things, I’m all for increasing standards and expectations but you don’t do it overnight.

We finished 3rd last season with a home record of 27 points from 57 points - 47% of available points which included 7 wins at home from 19 - 37%. Which is skewed further without Hearts in the league.

I think some fans are realising that as crazy as it sounds we are actually really under achieving when you take our home record and Big Game records into account. The stat of 2 wins from 20 in games against Rangers Celtic, Hearts and at Hampden is unbelievable.

There have been worse Hibs teams with better records in big games and more than likely better home records.

If we could sort out the home record and win the occasional big game that everyone remembers we could be doing really really well.

[Danderhall Hibs]

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We finished 3rd last season with a home record of 27 points from 57 points - 47% of available points which included 7 wins at home from 19 - 37%. Which is skewed further without Hearts in the league.

I think some fans are realising that as crazy as it sounds we are actually really under achieving when you take our home record and Big Game records into account. The stat of 2 wins from 20 in games against Rangers Celtic, Hearts and at Hampden is unbelievable.

There have been worse Hibs teams with better records in big games and more than likely better home records.

If we could sort out the home record and win the occasional big game that everyone remembers we could be doing really really well.

We do win the occasional big game - they've just started dropping out of the stats being posted as they don't fit anymore. Definitely an area of further improvement though. Be great to win vs the OF and then not follow it with a pumping from Livi - that's the real goal rather than just winning occasionally vs them (think that's classed as being a "boy band").

[Perfect Hatrick]

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You really think 14 wins from 33 is excellent?

Chuck in some absolute horror shows as well.

Most can agree away form has been excellent.

I know you’re going to come back and talk about how it compares historically so I’m not really sure why I’m asking. But if folk really thought we were excellent at home I’m sure more would be making more of an effort to attend.

Regardless of how we’ve done historically, I’m not sure 42% of home games won qualifies as excellent, even if it’s better than most of what came before.

Like bingo70 I’m also struggling to believe that it’s the 4th best home record we’ve ever had as well but if it is then that says more about us having a historically poor home record imo. For a third place finish you’re really looking at winning at least 50% of your games. For most teams that would see more of them being at home than away.

For as long as we can keep having a very good away record then the home record isn’t as much an issue if you want to look at it glass half full or it’s holding us back from challenging for 2nd if you want to look at it glass half empty.

[matty_f]

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Regardless of how we’ve done historically, I’m not sure 42% of home games won qualifies as excellent, even if it’s better than most of what came before.

Like bingo70 I’m also struggling to believe that it’s the 4th best home record we’ve ever had as well but if it is then that says more about us having a historically poor home record imo. For a third place finish you’re really looking at winning at least 50% of your games. For most teams that would see more of them being at home than away.

For as long as we can keep having a very good away record then the home record isn’t as much an issue if you want to look at it glass half full or it’s holding us back from challenging for 2nd if you want to look at it glass half empty.

https://www.fitbastats.com/hibs/manager_records.php

Minted how we just dismiss Jack Ross being 4th best as being down to us historically not being great at home. For our entire existence.

Folk are going to great lengths to talk down what are some pretty good achievements for some reason.

[Perfect Hatrick]

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https://www.fitbastats.com/hibs/manager_records.php

Minted how we just dismiss Jack Ross being 4th best as being down to us historically not being great at home. For our entire existence.

Folk are going to great lengths to talk down what are some pretty good achievements for some reason.

If a 42% win record at home is the 4th best a manager has achieved at Hibs though then that is historically very poor imo even if you don’t think so.

Put simply, I don’t think winning 42% of home games is a pretty good achievement when you’re the third best team in the country.

[matty_f]

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If a 42% win record at home is the 4th best a manager has achieved at Hibs though then that is historically very poor imo even if you don’t think so.

Put simply, I don’t think winning 42% of home games is a pretty good achievement when you’re the third best team in the country.

Surely it’s good enough to be third best team in the country?

[Perfect Hatrick]

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Surely it’s good enough to be third best team in the country?

I didn’t say it wasn’t. It’s only good enough when your away record is exceptionally good though.

As I said, I don’t think exceptional away records for Hibs are particularly sustainable although that’s maybe just because we’ve been conditioned to think that away games in football are more difficult.

[matty_f]

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If a 42% win record at home is the 4th best a manager has achieved at Hibs though then that is historically very poor imo even if you don’t think so.

Put simply, I don’t think winning 42% of home games is a pretty good achievement when you’re the third best team in the country.

52% home win record, not 42%.

[Perfect Hatrick]

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52% home win record, not 42%.

It’s 42% in the league.

[andrew70]

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4th best home record of all time for Hibs managers. Let’s discuss it - it’s excellent.

He's fourth best yes but he should be higher. Your stat only really highlights how poor we've been previously.

Marked improvement is necessary as investment grows.

[matty_f]

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He's fourth best yes but he should be higher. Your stat only really highlights how poor we've been previously.

Marked improvement is necessary as investment grows.

The investment didn’t come all at once and expectations should rightfully increase but also in a realistic way.

[andrew70]

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The investment didn’t come all at once and expectations should rightfully increase but also in a realistic way.

What would/should realistic be?

Minimum top four, cup success and europe.

Sounds simple but so many variables as with any football team but to grow we've got to be expecting better than 14/33 home wins. Match last season's away tally and improve home form then we'll be flying high as we should be.

Time will tell but at the minute we are fighting below our weight imo

[matty_f]

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What would/should realistic be?

Minimum top four, cup success and europe.

Sounds simple but so many variables as with any football team but to grow we've got to be expecting better than 14/33 home wins. Match last season's away tally and improve home form then we'll be flying high as we should be.

Time will tell but at the minute we are fighting below our weight imo

Season on season improvement. The club (IIRC) target minimum top 4 and semi finals of the cups. I believe the aim is to regularly feature in the group stages of European competition.

I don’t think we are fighting below our weight.
A third place finish, European qualification, semi finals and a final is about right/slightly above where we “should” be based on budget etc.

[90274]

Took a look at home league records of previous teams that finished 3rd/4th - seasons 00/01, 04/05, 05/06, 09/10 and 17/18 with 20/21 and JR record

Season	P	W	D	L	Pts	Apts	W%	Pts%
2000-01	19	11	6	2	39	57	57.9%	68.4%
2004-05	19	9	4	6	31	57	47.4%	54.4%
2005-06	19	11	1	7	34	57	57.9%	59.6%
2009-10	19	9	4	6	31	57	47.4%	54.4%
2017-18	19	11	4	4	37	57	57.9%	64.9%
2020-21	19	7	6	6	27	57	36.8%	47.4%
JR	33	14	10	9	52	99	42.4%	52.5%

Most Wins: 11 - 3 times
Most Points: 39 - 00/01
Highest Win%: 57.9% - 3 times
Highest Point%: 68.4% - 00/01


Taking seasons 00/01, 04/05, 05/06, 09/10 and 17/18 the average home wins in a season is 10.2, the average points is 34.4 which equates to a win % of 53.7% and a point % of 60.4.

Under Jack Ross in 20/21 we won 7 league matches at home and took 27 points for a win % of 36.8% and a point % of 47.4%.

Jack Ross current record is 14 wins from 33 league matches at home and 52 points from 99 pts which is a win % of 42.4% and a point % of 52.5% both well below the average of well performing teams in previous years which average 10 wins a season and 34 pts at home.

In comparison, Hearts best is 2005-6, Won 15 games at home and won 47 pts at home.

[90274]

Similarly, analysis of JR in games v Hearts Aberdeen Rangers Celtic and at Hampden.

P W D L Pts A Pts W% Pts% Overall 25 5 5 15 17 63 20.0% 27.0% Home 9 2 3 4 9 27 22.2% 33.3% Away 12 2 2 8 8 36 16.7% 22.2% Hampden 4 1 0 3 25.0% Aberdeen 6 3 0 3 9 18 50.0% 50.0% Celtic 5 0 3 2 3 15 0.0% 20.0% Rangers 7 0 1 6 1 21 0.0% 4.8% Hearts 4 1 1 2 4 9 25.0% 44.4%

[Perfect Hatrick]

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He's fourth best yes but he should be higher. Your stat only really highlights how poor we've been previously.

Marked improvement is necessary as investment grows.

Pretty much where I’m at. Investment has grown, ambitions are publicly higher than our average historical performance so it stands to reason the least we should be expecting is for our manager to have a home record that is better than most.

The question for me is whether it’s good enough in terms of how much better it is. 42% of home league games won when roughly 47% of the games come against bottom 6 teams can and should be improved on imo. If it does then I’m sure we’ll start to get some of the fans that are staying away back and we’ll stand a great chance of finishing third again.

[90274]

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He's fourth best yes but he should be higher. Your stat only really highlights how poor we've been previously.

Marked improvement is necessary as investment grows.

Yes, I agree. We should be looking forward not backwards to the past where we have been perennial under-achievers.

It's time for us to get the home sorted out (well Jack Ross) and deliver performances that match the resources the club now has.

It's not a case of fine margins, it's a case of delivering for Jack Ross or I think Ron will look to someone who can.