Coronavirus

[lapsedhibee]

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I’m not sure what officially classifies a second wave but it certainly looks to be occurring in Iran. Hopefully our British exceptionalism will help prevent one here but then again it didn’t help us much in the first wave.

Pennington mentions that a 'relapse' in Singapore can be explained away as a cluster caused by migrant workers' living conditions. Strangely in an article dated 1 June he doesn't mention the rise in cases in Iran which looks as if it's been going on for most of May.

[Pretty Boy]

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Pennington mentions that a 'relapse' in Singapore can be explained away as a cluster caused by migrant workers' living conditions. Strangely in an article dated 1 June he doesn't mention the rise in cases in Iran which looks as if it's been going on for most of May.

Could the rise in Iran be explained increased attendance at Mosque during Ramadan and the Eid celebrations? Mosques were reopened on 11th May.

[JeMeSouviens]

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Sorry I can’t copy and paste.

It is written by Professor Hugh Pennington so it certainly has credibility or at least provides balance.



Thomas Hugh Pennington, CBE, FRCPath, FRCP (Edin), FMedSci, FRSE (born 19 April 1938 in Edgware, Middlesex) is emeritus professor of bacteriology at the University of Aberdeen, Scotland.[1] Outside academia, he is best known as the chair of the Pennington Group enquiry into the Scottish Escherichia coli outbreak of 1996[2] and as Chairman of the Public Inquiry into the 2005 Outbreak of E. coli O157 in South Wales.

However eminent he may be, a bacteriologist is not a virologist. But anyway...

The functions of a Covid-19 press conference seem to be to transmit information, praise the indefatigable, and brandish a doom‑laden cudgel at the public. A common theme is that if virus-control measures are not observed, or are relaxed too soon, there will be a second “wave” or “peak” of infections.

In the UK, an often-repeated prognostication has been that this second wave might be more virulent than the first and that the NHS would be overwhelmed. The message from Geneva during the World Health Organisation’s press briefing on May 25 was more nuanced, but of the same ilk. The point was made that the decline in cases in many countries has been due to the control measures, rather than to the virus running out of steam of its own accord, and that relaxing them could lead to an immediate second peak for which we should get ready.

I am a second-wave sceptic. I said so in evidence to the Scottish Parliament’s health and sport committee in April, and was criticised by Nicola Sturgeon for it.

I started my virological career working on viruses spread by the respiratory route and was mentored at that time by June Almeida, the discoverer of human coronaviruses. I consider that the evidence supporting the notion of a second wave or peak of Covid-19 infections in the UK that would swamp the NHS is very weak. If we get the easing of lockdown wrong, far more likely would be a continuation of infections, many in the form of localised outbreaks, but not waves or peaks.

The idea of a devastating second wave comes almost entirely from the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic. The first wave occurred in June and July and the second in October and November. The first was mild and the second was lethal. It is yet to be explained why the infections occurred in waves and why the virus faded away after the first and then returned.

Mathematical modelling textbooks do not discuss it. There was no effective social distancing in 1918 and it had nothing to do with herd immunity. It is possible that the first-wave virus differed genetically from the one that caused the second, but this is an entirely speculative theory because no virus samples from the first are available for scientists to test – influenza virus wasn’t discovered until 1933.

Subsequent flu pandemics have been much less lethal. The Asian flu second wave was less lethal than the first. Hong Kong flu in 1968-69 caused fewer deaths but had a second wave that killed more in Britain than the first (though the first was more lethal in America). And swine flu in 2009 killed 10 in its first wave and 137 in its second.


Flu is very different from Covid-19. Although both are commonly spread by the respiratory route, and both have infected prime ministers (David Lloyd George got the Spanish flu), the more we learn about Covid-19, the less its biology and epidemiology resemble that of flu.

There have been no flu-like second waves (or even peaks) in China, South Korea or New Zealand. There was no second wave with Sars, another coronavirus.

In the absence of controls, flu has an R rate of seven; Covid-19’s is between two and three. And far more than with flu, Covid-19 cases have very commonly occurred in clusters. In New Zealand (which may well have eradicated the virus), 41 per cent of cases occurred in 16 clusters of 13 or more cases in each. And, sadly, in the UK the virus has taken an enormous toll on residents of care homes, many of which have had multiple cases.

The only country so far to have made a good start with virus control and then suffered a relapse has been Singapore, when the virus got into the migrant-worker dormitories in which infection control and social distancing was almost impossible (just as in British care homes).

Defeatist flu models still lurk behind current Covid-19 predictions. That the virus will persist for ages is a flu concept. These predictions should be put to one side. Like Sars, and unlike flu, the virus is eradicable. If China and New Zealand are striving to be free of it, we should be, too.

Hugh Pennington is emeritus professor of bacteriology at the University of Aberdeen

[Sylar]

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However eminent he may be, a bacteriologist is not a virologist. But anyway...

Don't let his most recent title guide you in terms of his expertise...he clearly has a background in virology (PhD, postdoctoral fellowships), but worked in the role of a professor in bacteriology during a large part of his career. Quite likely his research path evolved and he now looks at different things than what he qualified in.

My title is professor of environmental economics, but I've never studied economics in my puff!

It's an interesting article for sure, but his conclusions aren't really founded on any empirical research. Which was probably why the FM dismissed his concerns...if the active researchers investigating Covid-19 see it as a significant risk, I'd be inclined to listen to them who work in the field day in, day out.

[CapitalGreen]

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However eminent he may be, a bacteriologist is not a virologist. But anyway...

Thanks for providing the full article, it’s always good to be able to read more of an article than just the headline, particularly one as click-baity as this.

[JeMeSouviens]

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Don't let his most recent title guide you in terms of his expertise...he clearly has a background in virology (PhD, postdoctoral fellowships), but worked in the role of a professor in bacteriology during a large part of his career. Quite likely his research path evolved and he now looks at different things than what he qualified in.

My title is professor of environmental economics, but I've never studied economics in my puff!

It's an interesting article for sure, but his conclusions aren't really founded on any empirical research. Which was probably why the FM dismissed his concerns...if the active researchers investigating Covid-19 see it as a significant risk, I'd be inclined to listen to them who work in the field day in, day out.

Yes, fair point.

I’m not really sure exactly what point he’s trying to make. Is he saying he doesn’t expect a mutated form of the virus or just that he expects it to fade away by itself? It’s really not very clear.

[lapsedhibee]

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Yes, fair point.

I’m not really sure exactly what point he’s trying to make. Is he saying he doesn’t expect a mutated form of the virus or just that he expects it to fade away by itself? It’s really not very clear.

Is it possible that the Telegraph has edited what he's written, and making it compatible for the readership has necessitated excising the point?

[grunt]

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not sure its the right thread but cananyone explain why MPs need to be physically present in Westminster to vote? Seems counter intuitive

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It's the first step towards re-establishing the wall of sound behind Johnson in the hope that that will prevent people noticing how thick he is when Starmer asks him things.

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They don’t, it’s just Lord Snooty making them to “set an example”. I work for a Central Government Department and we are being told to work from home. As we can and have been, that’s what we will continue to do. Don’t see why MPs need to be any different. They have proved that they can work and vote from home.

It is about all these things, but so much more too. First, they are making MPs queue because they can. It's a form of bullying, a reminder that MPs don't have any say in how they work any more.

Secondly, and more importantly, it's about filling the house with Tory voices, as mentioned above. It has the dual benefit of making it very difficult for MPs from distant constituencies (Scotland anyone?) who need to travel to London during lockdown, find places to say while down there, find places to eat while down there. It's all about reminding opposition MPs that whatever they do they can't beat the Govt because of their majority. And you can forget being adequately represented by any MP who is disabled, or shielding, or caring.

I, and I suspect many on this board, are no longer represented by an MP in Parliament. We have been disenfranchised overnight.

This is just the start - keep watching for a range of actions which the Tories will put in place which will erode our democratic rights. Only today they announced they are stopping weekend virus press conferences. If they could get away with it, this Govt would do everything behind closed doors and not tell us what's going on. And just remember, Brexit was all about regaining our sovereignty, right? Yeah right. F that.

[Vault Boy]

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Yes, fair point.

I’m not really sure exactly what point he’s trying to make. Is he saying he doesn’t expect a mutated form of the virus or just that he expects it to fade away by itself? It’s really not very clear.

I think he's speaking directly to the commentary surrounding a second wave occurring if lockdown measures are lifted too soon. His rebuttal seems to say that the evidence collected thus far, though relatively limited, is that the virus doesn't return once 'under control.'

I'm not sure he's talking about a mutation as such, but rather a reoccurrence due to increased social activity. That's how it read to me at least.

That's not me taking a stance on what he's said fwiw.

[JeMeSouviens]

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I think he's speaking directly to the commentary surrounding a second wave occurring if lockdown measures are lifted too soon. His rebuttal seems to say that the evidence collected thus far, though relatively limited, is that the virus doesn't return once 'under control.'

I'm not sure he's talking about a mutation as such, but rather a reoccurrence due to increased social activity. That's how it read to me at least.

That's not me taking a stance on what he's said fwiw.

Seems plausible. We shouldn’t really have to guess though!

Anyway, he’s not keeping up to date with latest estimates of R0. This says 5-6 rather than 2-3.

https://www.harvardmagazine.com/2020/05/r-nought

[JeMeSouviens]

Devi Sridhar on twitter:

So instead of preparing & preventing a second wave of infections, prevailing opinion in UK & US seems to be: maybe this virus will go away, let's wait & see. Isn't this the Jan-March mindset that got both countries into the position they are in? Highest death #s in the world.

[Andy74]

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I think he's speaking directly to the commentary surrounding a second wave occurring if lockdown measures are lifted too soon. His rebuttal seems to say that the evidence collected thus far, though relatively limited, is that the virus doesn't return once 'under control.'

I'm not sure he's talking about a mutation as such, but rather a reoccurrence due to increased social activity. That's how it read to me at least.

That's not me taking a stance on what he's said fwiw.

I think that is what he is saying and hopefully it is correct.

[lapsedhibee]

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Devi Sridhar on twitter:

She's on Ch4 News quite a bit. Glad she's one of the people advising ScotGov.

[lapsedhibee]

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Anyway, he’s not keeping up to date with latest estimates of R0. This says 5-6 rather than 2-3.

https://www.harvardmagazine.com/2020/05/r-nought

Interesting article. Advocating the (slow) pursuit of herd immunity, but putting the required infected part of the population at 82%. 82% of the population are not healthy under-40s, so that's quite a lot of planned death.

[Moulin Yarns]

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Sorry I can’t copy and paste.

It is written by Professor Hugh Pennington so it certainly has credibility or at least provides balance.



Thomas Hugh Pennington, CBE, FRCPath, FRCP (Edin), FMedSci, FRSE (born 19 April 1938 in Edgware, Middlesex) is emeritus professor of bacteriology at the University of Aberdeen, Scotland.[1] Outside academia, he is best known as the chair of the Pennington Group enquiry into the Scottish Escherichia coli outbreak of 1996[2] and as Chairman of the Public Inquiry into the 2005 Outbreak of E. coli O157 in South Wales.

COVID-19 is a virus, e-coli is a bacteria. They behave very differently.

There is e-coli in our gut doing wonders unlike all virus which are bad.

[Sir David Gray]

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No coronavirus deaths recorded in the last 24 hours in Spain which is the first time since March.

And again for the second day in a row.

[PaulSmith]

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COVID-19 is a virus, e-coli is a bacteria. They behave very differently.

Not sure of the point you are trying to make, is it simply you doubting his credentials and thus the theory that he’s written about?

[Moulin Yarns]

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Not sure of the point you are trying to make, is it simply you doubting his credentials and thus the theory that he’s written about?

Edited my post.

[PaulSmith]

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Seems plausible. We shouldn’t really have to guess though!

Anyway, he’s not keeping up to date with latest estimates of R0. This says 5-6 rather than 2-3.

https://www.harvardmagazine.com/2020/05/r-nought

What’s the “R” number in Scotland right now, no one really knows and no one really knew what it was back then either.

I do read that the number of confirmed infections has dropped quite significantly week on week but I’m told that the R is still close to one. Can the more enlightened on here explain this?

[Smartie]

Whilst his finest work might have been on bacteria, you don't get the sort of qualifications Prof Pennington has without having a fair old understanding of how viruses work as well.

I wouldn't be dismissing his opinion in a hurry.

Important though to remember that all this is is an opinion - you will find someone equally well qualified or more who will hold a different opinion.

This is a novel virus and whilst our knowledge of it is growing, we still know scarily little.

[CapitalGreen]

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Not sure of the point you are trying to make, is it simply you doubting his credentials and thus the theory that he’s written about?

What’s your opinion on the article? Do you think we should strive for total eradication like Professor Pennington suggests which may require some draconian lockdown measures for people or go for a controlled approach that will allow us to ease the lockdown measures but with the possibility of some community transmission still existing indefinitely?

[PaulSmith]

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What’s your opinion on the article? Do you think we should strive for total eradication like Professor Pennington suggests which may require some draconian lockdown measures for people or go for a controlled approach that will allow us to ease the lockdown measures but with the possibility of some community transmission still existing indefinitely?

I’m a little tired of a lot of people who constantly use the term “the second wave” and thought this might ease some fears.

Nothing more or less than that.

[JeMeSouviens]

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What’s the “R” number in Scotland right now, no one really knows and no one really knew what it was back then either.

I do read that the number of confirmed infections has dropped quite significantly week on week but I’m told that the R is still close to one. Can the more enlightened on here explain this?

R0 that he’s talking about is the reproduction rate with no interventions.

The current effective R must be below 1 as you say. I guess if you assume the fatality rate is constant you could try and estimate it for between different weeks on the graphs. I can have a go tomorrow if you like but I suspect the fatality rate will have varied due to prevalence of clusters in care homes etc

[JeMeSouviens]

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I’m a little tired of a lot of people who constantly use the term “the second wave” and thought this might ease some fears.

Nothing more or less than that.

All evidence suggests there is a plenty big enough pool of people out there who could be infected. We will have to maintain control as we ease lockdown or there will be a second wave (or a reacceleration of the first wave depending how you look at it.)

Can we maintain control? Maybe.

[PaulSmith]

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R0 that he’s talking about is the reproduction rate with no interventions.

The current effective R must be below 1 as you say. I guess if you assume the fatality rate is constant you could try and estimate it for between different weeks on the graphs. I can have a go tomorrow if you like but I suspect the fatality rate will have varied due to prevalence of clusters in care homes etc

That would be brilliant if you could. I just think that confirmed cases (or deaths?) is the only real constant and would it need to be weighted to when there’s more testing being done?

[PaulSmith]

https://www.ft.com/content/a3fe315f-...c-a466a7f33aa1

I also see that the FT is now gunning for the Scot Govt.

[JeMeSouviens]

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That would be brilliant if you could. I just think that confirmed cases (or deaths?) is the only real constant and would it need to be weighted to when there’s more testing being done?

Excess deaths removes tests from having an effect.

[CapitalGreen]

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I’m a little tired of a lot of people who constantly use the term “the second wave” and thought this might ease some fears.

Nothing more or less than that.

Interesting because previously you have been tired of people talking about indefinite lockdown/distancing restrictions but to fully eradicate the virus as Professor Hennington suggests we should in the article you shared, we would probably have to introduce some strict lockdown/distancing measures for an indefinite period of time.

[lapsedhibee]

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https://www.ft.com/content/a3fe315f-...c-a466a7f33aa1

I also see that the FT is now gunning for the Scot Govt.

Certainly gunning for Ruth Davidson:

Former Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson has accused Ms Sturgeon of putting potentially infected patients in “an enclosed environment of incredibly vulnerable people” leading to a care home death rate “more than double” that of England.

But while the proportion of Covid-19 deaths occurring in Scottish care homes is substantially higher than in England and Wales, FT analysis shows excess deaths — the increase over the average for the time of year — has actually been slightly lower than south of the border.

Deaths officially recorded as coronavirus-related account for 74 per cent of all excess care home deaths in Scotland, but only 48 per cent in England and Wales, suggesting authorities there are missing many coronavirus fatalities.

[JimBHibees]

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Certainly gunning for Ruth Davidson:

Former Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson has accused Ms Sturgeon of putting potentially infected patients in “an enclosed environment of incredibly vulnerable people” leading to a care home death rate “more than double” that of England.

But while the proportion of Covid-19 deaths occurring in Scottish care homes is substantially higher than in England and Wales, FT analysis shows excess deaths — the increase over the average for the time of year — has actually been slightly lower than south of the border.

Deaths officially recorded as coronavirus-related account for 74 per cent of all excess care home deaths in Scotland, but only 48 per cent in England and Wales, suggesting authorities there are missing many coronavirus fatalities.

No doubt in my mind England care home deaths being underplayed. Excess deaths figure seem to represent this as do 2000+ per cent increase in pneumonia deaths in comparison with last year. Probably political decision to make them look better than they are plus can make Scotland look worse than they are in comparison so Tory win win.