Coronavirus

[Billy Whizz]

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[Hibrandenburg]

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I posted earlier in the thread that I have a friend that lives in Rome. She is a key worker so has still been working throughout.

She posted a couple of pictures on Instagram today of Battistini metro station and it was rammed, she said it has been getting gradually busier for a few days now as are the streets. The 1st week of the lockdown she had a whole carriage to herself, today she said she couldn't even count how many were on board as it was so busy. Also posted pictures of a perfume shop that had opened and people queuing to get in. She seems to think the lockdown is about to break in Rome as people are blatantly flouting it and the Police are struggling to/not even trying to control things.

Given things seem to be slowly improving in Italy it will be interesting to see how this plays out.

I posted earlier that cultural differences would play a part in the fate of individual nations. I'm always wary of using stereotypes but it would seem there's an element of truth in the old cliches that Germans like to follow rules and the Italians think rules are there to be broken. This is being mirrored in the statistics we're seeing coming out of both countries. There are of course other factors involved in the infection and mortality rates but the more people have trust in and abide by the advice and regulations set out by their respective governments, the better the longterm effect in the fight against this virus will be. I guess culturally the UK lies somewhere in between Germany and Italy when it comes to civil obedience and expect the final statistics to also mirror this.

[G B Young]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-s...ost_type=share

Well said.

[JeMeSouviens]

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I posted earlier that cultural differences would play a part in the fate of individual nations. I'm always wary of using stereotypes but it would seem there's an element of truth in the old cliches that Germans like to follow rules and the Italians think rules are there to be broken. This is being mirrored in the statistics we're seeing coming out of both countries. There are of course other factors involved in the infection and mortality rates but the more people have trust in and abide by the advice and regulations set out by their respective governments, the better the longterm effect in the fight against this virus will be. I guess culturally the UK lies somewhere in between Germany and Italy when it comes to civil obedience and expect the final statistics to also mirror this.

The UK's curve is as bad/slightly worse than Italy:



In my view, Germany is doing better because it's sticking much closer to the WHO advice: test, quarantine, trace, test, quarantine, repeat ...

[HiBremian]

http://www.healthdata.org/news-relea...s-uk-early-its

This set of predictions looking grim for the UK. The included video points out that the predictor range is quite wide, but suggests that the peak for the UK will come in the 2nd/3rd week of April. The lack of beds and ICU beds looks especially worrying. Only Germany seems to have enough to cover the expected trajectory of demand.

[Pretty Boy]

Scottish figures again not showing a huge rise in hospital admissions or the number in ICU. Obviously the death toll looks grim, not unexpected given the change in reporting, but I think the hospital admissions one is the one to keep an eye on for now.

On Sunday 197 were in intensive care, today it's 199. On Sunday there was 1590 in hospital, today it's 1751. The admissions rise is big but it's consistent and that probably accounts for some cases, similar to the PM, that either started just after or predated the lockdown that haven't improved.

I'm not sure it could be described as a positive but it's steady rather than a huge surge.

[Since90+2]

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http://www.healthdata.org/news-relea...s-uk-early-its

This set of predictions looking grim for the UK. The included video points out that the predictor range is quite wide, but suggests that the peak for the UK will come in the 2nd/3rd week of April. The lack of beds and ICU beds looks especially worrying. Only Germany seems to have enough to cover the expected trajectory of demand.

Predicting Sweden to gave just over 4000 deaths by August. I would have expected that figure to be higher considering they are pretty much following the herd immunity model.

[Barney McGrew]

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Scottish figures again not showing a huge rise in hospital admissions or the number in ICU. Obviously the death toll looks grim, not unexpected given the change in reporting, but I think the hospital admissions one is the one to keep an eye on for now.

On Sunday 197 were in intensive care, today it's 199. On Sunday there was 1590 in hospital, today it's 1751. The admissions rise is big but it's consistent and that probably accounts for some cases, similar to the PM, that either started just after or predated the lockdown that haven't improved.

I'm not sure it could be described as a positive but it's steady rather than a huge surge.

The number of new reported deaths is nowhere near what I’d have expected given it would be effectively three days total today.

New cases are not rising exponentially either.

[HiBremian]

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Predicting Sweden to gave just over 4000 deaths by August. I would have expected that figure to be higher considering they are pretty much following the herd immunity model.

It looks like they're moving towards lockdown.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...th-toll-climbs

Even so, for a country of 10m, 4,000 deaths is pretty horrendous. Compare Portugal, also around 10m, with a predicted 470 deaths.

[Pretty Boy]

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It looks like they're moving towards lockdown.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...th-toll-climbs

Even so, for a country of 10m, 4,000 deaths is pretty horrendous. Compare Portugal, also around 10m, with a predicted 470 deaths.

Has anyone done, or is it even possible to do, any longer term modelling for if a vaccine isn't found? Pretty much everything seems to hinge on us having a vaccine at some point around the 18 month mark.

If that doesn't happen and we see 2nd and 3rd waves would Sweden be in a better position at that point given they would have had a far higher number of cases and thus the hypothesised immunity? I'm not advocating herd immunity as a strategy but I assume that's the thinking behind it. In the bluntest possible terms; extreme pain in the short term for longer term gain.

[Chorley Hibee]

Figures released by the ONS today show NHS England cumulative death figures are up to 80% higher than what UK government have reported thus far.

https://twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/1247458186300456960?s=19

Even more alarming is the fact these figures still only include hospital admissions.

[bawheid]

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Has anyone done, or is it even possible to do, any longer term modelling for if a vaccine isn't found? Pretty much everything seems to hinge on us having a vaccine at some point around the 18 month mark.

If that doesn't happen and we see 2nd and 3rd waves would Sweden be in a better position at that point given they would have had a far higher number of cases and thus the hypothesised immunity? I'm not advocating herd immunity as a strategy but I assume that's the thinking behind it. In the bluntest possible terms; extreme pain in the short term for longer term gain.

Was the herd immunity strategy not thought likely to cause 500,000 deaths in the UK. Hence why the government abandoned the Cummings plan and introduced the lockdown.

Think the whole exit strategy has to include specific mitigation to avoid waves 2 and 3, or else we can’t exit. Test trace isolate test trace isolate test trace isolate test trace isolate test trace isolate seems to be the way to do it.

[Chorley Hibee]

As predicted, deaths in the UK around 850 for the last 24 hours.

Weekend figures were always going to have been an anomaly.

[B.H.F.C]

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Was the herd immunity strategy not thought likely to cause 500,000 deaths in the UK. Hence why the government abandoned the Cummings plan and introduced the lockdown.

Think the whole exit strategy has to include specific mitigation to avoid waves 2 and 3, or else we can’t exit. Test trace isolate test trace isolate test trace isolate test trace isolate test trace isolate seems to be the way to do it.

Starting to wonder how the hell we get out of this at all, without being right back at square one after a couple of months.

[JimBHibees]

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Figures released by the ONS today show NHS England cumulative death figures are up to 80% higher than what UK government have reported thus far.

https://twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/stat...300456960?s=19

Even more alarming is the fact these figures still only include hospital admissions.

Just to be clear is he saying Covid 19 deaths in hospital are being ignored or that people in community are dying in large numbers from it but not being included in official figures.

[Keyser Sauzee]

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Starting to wonder how the hell we get out of this at all, without being right back at square one after a couple of months.

I think it will be a case of relaxing the measures for a period of time then back to “lockdown” again and so on till we get a vaccine.

[Chorley Hibee]

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Just to be clear is he saying Covid 19 deaths in hospital are being ignored or that people in community are dying in large numbers from it but not being included in official figures.

His words, and the statistics from the ONS, show a "persistent under-reporting of deaths" because of reporting delays.

Also, these figures supplied by the ONS still only include hospital admissions.

Inclusion of deaths in the community would see an even greater figure.

[JeMeSouviens]

Article about Germany and its relatively low numbers:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/04/w...eath-rate.html

[JimBHibees]

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His words, and the statistics from the ONS, show a "persistent under-reporting of deaths" because of reporting delays.

Also, these figures supplied by the ONS still only include hospital admissions.

Inclusion of deaths in the community would see an even greater figure.

Scotland are now using National Registers of Scotland numbers I think, assuming would include community deaths also.

[Chorley Hibee]

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Scotland are now using National Registers of Scotland numbers I think, assuming would include community deaths also.

I believe this was meant to be the case Jim, but unsure if this has started yet.

[K-Zazu]

How can things ever return to normal? Any positive news at all?

[JeMeSouviens]

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His words, and the statistics from the ONS, show a "persistent under-reporting of deaths" because of reporting delays.

Also, these figures supplied by the ONS still only include hospital admissions.

Inclusion of deaths in the community would see an even greater figure.

I think the persistent under-reporting is a lag between deaths happening and deaths being reported. When we are passed the peak the same effect should result in an over-reporting.

The only hospital deaths being recorded is a separate thing. Do we know how much that's likely to be under-reporting deaths? I wouldn't have thought many people wouldn't be admitted to hospital if they have it bad enough to die from it?

[Billy Whizz]

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How can things ever return to normal? Any positive news at all?

China just confirmed no deaths, remember they are around 3 months ahead of us

[Hibby Bairn]

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How can things ever return to normal? Any positive news at all?

Number of people in ICU in Scotland didn’t increase today. First time that has happened.

Brighter days ahead. Keep positive 👍

[RyeSloan]

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I think the persistent under-reporting is a lag between deaths happening and deaths being reported. When we are passed the peak the same effect should result in an over-reporting.

The only hospital deaths being recorded is a separate thing. Do we know how much that's likely to be under-reporting deaths? I wouldn't have thought many people wouldn't be admitted to hospital if they have it bad enough to die from it?

It appears according to the care home deaths that it’s quite common for the elderly and frail not to be hospitalised.

I posted earlier that I found that surprising when 13 died in one home in a week without a single hospitalisation but that just seems to be the way of it.

Also appears to be common on the continent as well with France / Spain in particular showing up huge numbers of care home deaths.

[Smartie]

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How can things ever return to normal? Any positive news at all?

The human race has survived many pandemics, at a time when medical care was not as advanced as today. We've survived dropping nuclear bombs on each other and other wars where we have killed each other in the millions.

"Normal" after will probably be different to "normal" before, but one way or another a new "normal" will be established.

There is good news out there if you look in the right place - the worst affected countries who have had a horrific month are starting to get on top of their individual battles (even if we possibly have a little bit yet to go to get to that stage.)

And whilst the information coming out of that country always has to be taken with a pinch of salt, there is only good news coming out of China about how to deal with coronavirus. Time flies (which is not a good thing), we'll be there before we know it, and this will be a story to tell our grandkids - as long as we follow the social distancing and hand washing rules.

[RyeSloan]

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Number of people in ICU in Scotland didn’t increase today. First time that has happened.

Brighter days ahead. Keep positive

That really is the key metric.

When we start seeing that go down then we can maybe think that the first peak is over.

Quite how we avoid a second and third wave will then become the bigger focus.

Still a hell of a long way to go yet though, sadly.

[Chorley Hibee]

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I think the persistent under-reporting is a lag between deaths happening and deaths being reported. When we are passed the peak the same effect should result in an over-reporting.

The only hospital deaths being recorded is a separate thing. Do we know how much that's likely to be under-reporting deaths? I wouldn't have thought many people wouldn't be admitted to hospital if they have it bad enough to die from it?

As RyeSloan mentions, I think deaths in the community may be a lot higher than many of us would imagine.

I agree with your interpretation of the ONS figures and that, eventually, the figures should balance. The difficulty comes in ascertaining when the peak/plateau in cases/deaths is?

Using figures to lift restrictions etc, that don't correspond with the actual situation on the ground, could be catastrophic.

[EI255]

Out of interest, wonder how many people in the UK die every other day?

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[JeMeSouviens]

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It appears according to the care home deaths that it’s quite common for the elderly and frail not to be hospitalised.

I posted earlier that I found that surprising when 13 died in one home in a week without a single hospitalisation but that just seems to be the way of it.

Also appears to be common on the continent as well with France / Spain in particular showing up huge numbers of care home deaths.

Jeez, that's grim.