Coronavirus

[JeMeSouviens]

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https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...3TV-SOs7CEvLOs

Thanks for posting that. I think it finally brings some clarity, at least to me since I couldn't get my head around where the numbers were going and how there was ever a chance we'd cope. The answer is of course, we wouldn't.

Looks like a choice between long term containment, ie. 12-18 months virtually locked down waiting for a vaccine, or a catastrophic health meltdown with hundreds of thousands of deaths.

****.

[Since90+2]

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Thanks for posting that. I think it finally brings some clarity, at least to me since I couldn't get my head around where the numbers were going and how there was ever a chance we'd cope. The answer is of course, we wouldn't.

Looks like a choice between long term containment, ie. 12-18 months virtually locked down waiting for a vaccine, or a catastrophic health meltdown with hundreds of thousands of deaths.

****.

I'm not sure why it would need to be that long. China with a population of over 1 billion are now getting back to some form of normality after 4 months. Why would it take 18 months here?

If it means stricter controls then do that for 3 months or so and we come out the other side in September.

[DH1875]

My head is all over the place. Like I said earlier, we have a lot of elderly and vulnerable relatives. My 15 year old daughter asked last night if they could come and stay with us so we can look after them. After much talking and debate I feel like kit having to say no and now my daughter thinks I'm some sort of a monster. God knows what she will think of me if anything happens to any of them.

[JeMeSouviens]

Here it is laid out at the end of the report:

Perhaps our most significant conclusion is that mitigation is unlikely to be feasible without emergency
surge capacity limits of the UK and US healthcare systems being exceeded many times over. In the
most effective mitigation strategy examined, which leads to a single, relatively short epidemic (case
isolation, household quarantine and social distancing of the elderly), the surge limits for both general
ward and ICU beds would be exceeded by at least 8-fold under the more optimistic scenario for critical
care requirements that we examined. In addition, even if all patients were able to be treated, we
predict there would still be in the order of 250,000 deaths in GB, and 1.1-1.2 million in the US.

In the UK, this conclusion has only been reached in the last few days, with the refinement of estimates
of likely ICU demand due to COVID-19 based on experience in Italy and the UK (previous planning
estimates assumed half the demand now estimated) and with the NHS providing increasing certainty
around the limits of hospital surge capacity.

We therefore conclude that epidemic suppression is the only viable strategy at the current time. The
social and economic effects of the measures which are needed to achieve this policy goal will be
profound. Many countries have adopted such measures already, but even those countries at an earlier
stage of their epidemic (such as the UK) will need to do so imminently.

Our analysis informs the evaluation of both the nature of the measures required to suppress COVID19
and the likely duration that these measures will need to be in place. Results in this paper have
informed policymaking in the UK and other countries in the last weeks. However, we emphasise that
is not at all certain that suppression will succeed long term; no public health intervention with such
disruptive effects on society has been previously attempted for such a long duration of time. How
populations and societies will respond remains unclear.

[Captain Trips]

This report is about the 10th different scenario I have read. Yes they know more than me but so did others telling us other stuff. In a week we will have different reports telling us its even worse or better.

[JeMeSouviens]

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I'm not sure why it would need to be that long. China with a population of over 1 billion are now getting back to some form of normality after 4 months. Why would it take 18 months here?

If it means stricter controls then do that for 3 months or so and we come out the other side in September.

China are not getting back to normality really, they still have containment in place.

Look at the graphs in that report, you can suppress the peak with containment but according to the models, as soon as you lift the containment, you start another surge and you're back to square 1. You still have the virus present and little to no immunity in the general population.

You can only lift the containment when you have a vaccine available to sort the immunity side of things.

[JeMeSouviens]

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Please remember with all research and opinion:

"It is worth stressing this is all based on mathematical models. They make assumptions, they are not perfect and what they find is not written in stone. This virus emerged only in December and we're still trying to fully understand it. The scale and role of asymptomatic infections or the summer weather in the pandemic are still unknown."

Therefore the 250k death toll is total unproven conjecture. I understand the need to look at worst case scenario so if it turns out better its good but let's give the plan undertaken time to develop.

Every day this spreads is also a day we learn more about it and possible ways to deal with it. I think the UK is generally not bad when told to do stuff,the key thing is are we being told the right stuff.

Fair enough, but I think while that knowledge develops, stringent containment measures are a must.

[Captain Trips]

Always bear in mind we are comparing countries that live differently have different customs and are not necessarily a reflection of what goes on here. For instance is it not far more common in Italy to have several generations of family living together than here? There are lots and lots of variables country to country.

[mvteng]

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China are not getting back to normality really, they still have containment in place.

They are slowly getting back to normality. I speak to my chinese counterparts on a daily basis. Factories are re-opening and travel restrictions are starting to be relaxed.

They are truly amazed at the lack of imposed lockdown in the UK.

[Smartie]

I see no way how my business can survive, but I'm going to keep trying.

Spoke to the bank yesterday and they will do what they can to help and I suspect they've been heavily incentivised by the government to do so.

Obviously don't do anything dangerous or silly, but I think it's important not to give up, certainly not this early. Adapt, adjust, speak to creditors, change what you do and you might not just survive but emerge stronger. Use the downtime to do all the things you've wanted to do to improve a business but can't because customers are always there and waiting to be served.

Funnily enough I think the "local guys" will do fine as they will have the flexibility to adapt and on a personal level the public won't want to see them struggle. It's the monoliths who might struggle, anyone has has stock that is expected to arrive "next day" due to a convoluted food chain - one break in the chain due to self-isolation and the whole thing might crash down.

What I would also say re mental health is - there is very little good for your mental health about being isolated and reading bad news and that is all we are able to do right now. Set other targets and achieve them, from reading books you've always wanted to say you've read to being able to do a press up, to learning how to cook with whatever limited ingredients you can lay your hands on.

I also fear where we are going. I didn't like the Americans queuing for guns and I wonder when boredom or economic fragility might lead to social unrest. I walked to and from work yesterday (Ocean Terminal to the West End and back, 14000 steps on my Hibs FFIT pedometer) and on the way home at 8pm or so I barely passed a soul, there were no cars on the street. It was a strange apocalyptic feeling. I also don't like when I start to hear comments from Chinese officials about the virus being taken to China by the US Army, but that's yet another story...

Someone I know is a physio in NHS Fife. It's not football injuries she deals with but often stuff like helping the seriously compromised to breathe etc. She believes she is going to have to fulfil a very different role soon as an auxiliary, helping out other services on the front line. Funnily enough I have a hunch I might find myself "conscripted" into a similar role. She say at the moment is is like the calm before the storm, eerily quiet. A+E departments had one of their quietest weekends ever at the weekend as people aren't out doing the silly stuff they normally do, but they all know it is all about to change. At least we have been able to get some sort of preparation in before the inevitable hits.

Interesting times, but dwelling on it mentally is not going to be good for any of us. I'd like some proper advice about how we deal with the inevitable consequences.

[Captain Trips]

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Fair enough, but I think while that knowledge develops, stringent containment measures are a must.

I am not saying its not case but we are not in Italy or China or Iran or South Korea. For instance I know we have massive housing schemes all over UK but on reflection when I have been to cities in Italy (Milan, Naoles, Rome) everything seems tighter closer with the houses. All factors I am sure.

[NORTHERNHIBBY]

i saw a genuinely worrying piece on the telly last night from the USA. As a lot of consumers are panic buying and stock-piling long lasting foods and toiletries, one state was reporting that the longest queues , were at gun shops.

[JeMeSouviens]

A slight glimmer of hope from Italy.

They have (presumably as a last desperate measure) trialled a drug used to treat rheumatoid arthritis and early signs are that it improves the "interstitial pneumonia" which is basically the death stage of coronavirus in the lungs.

"Out of 16 treated with Tocilizumab since 14 March, the ASL of Latina reports, 11 showed improvement after only 48 hours."

This could save a lot of lives.

[hibeesjoe]

Is letting the Coronavirus do its thing be an option?

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[mvteng]

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Is letting the Coronavirus do its thing be an option?

seems to be Boris's plan

[Hibbyradge]

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Is letting the Coronavirus do its thing be an option?

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No. Absolutely not.

[hibsbollah]

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Is letting the Coronavirus do its thing be an option?

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Yes it is unquestionably an option.

Government could decide to firstly, quarantine the old and those most at risk in their homes, and then let the virus do it's thing within the rest of the population while keeping the economy otherwise untouched. Schools stay open, workplaces stay open, people are told to behave as normal. Most of us will probably get ill for a short time and then get better, most of us will probably develop a degree of immunity as a result and a number of us will get very ill and be hospitalised. Society limps on, the economy limps on and you wait for the vaccine to arrive.

Whether it is the correct option nobody knows, because nobody knows how this virus will behave next.

[Captain Trips]

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Yes it is unquestionably an option.

Government could decide to firstly, quarantine the old and those most at risk in their homes, and then let the virus do it's thing within the rest of the population while keeping the economy otherwise untouched. Schools stay open, workplaces stay open, people are told to behave as normal. Most of us will probably get ill for a short time and then get better, most of us will probably develop a degree of immunity as a result and a number of us will get very ill and be hospitalised. Society limps on, the economy limps on and you wait for the vaccine to arrive.

Whether it is the correct option nobody knows, because nobody knows how this virus will behave next.

Indeed.

[calumhibee1]

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I see no way how my business can survive, but I'm going to keep trying.

Spoke to the bank yesterday and they will do what they can to help and I suspect they've been heavily incentivised by the government to do so.

Obviously don't do anything dangerous or silly, but I think it's important not to give up, certainly not this early. Adapt, adjust, speak to creditors, change what you do and you might not just survive but emerge stronger. Use the downtime to do all the things you've wanted to do to improve a business but can't because customers are always there and waiting to be served.

Funnily enough I think the "local guys" will do fine as they will have the flexibility to adapt and on a personal level the public won't want to see them struggle. It's the monoliths who might struggle, anyone has has stock that is expected to arrive "next day" due to a convoluted food chain - one break in the chain due to self-isolation and the whole thing might crash down.

What I would also say re mental health is - there is very little good for your mental health about being isolated and reading bad news and that is all we are able to do right now. Set other targets and achieve them, from reading books you've always wanted to say you've read to being able to do a press up, to learning how to cook with whatever limited ingredients you can lay your hands on.

I also fear where we are going. I didn't like the Americans queuing for guns and I wonder when boredom or economic fragility might lead to social unrest. I walked to and from work yesterday (Ocean Terminal to the West End and back, 14000 steps on my Hibs FFIT pedometer) and on the way home at 8pm or so I barely passed a soul, there were no cars on the street. It was a strange apocalyptic feeling. I also don't like when I start to hear comments from Chinese officials about the virus being taken to China by the US Army, but that's yet another story...

Someone I know is a physio in NHS Fife. It's not football injuries she deals with but often stuff like helping the seriously compromised to breathe etc. She believes she is going to have to fulfil a very different role soon as an auxiliary, helping out other services on the front line. Funnily enough I have a hunch I might find myself "conscripted" into a similar role. She say at the moment is is like the calm before the storm, eerily quiet. A+E departments had one of their quietest weekends ever at the weekend as people aren't out doing the silly stuff they normally do, but they all know it is all about to change. At least we have been able to get some sort of preparation in before the inevitable hits.

Interesting times, but dwelling on it mentally is not going to be good for any of us. I'd like some proper advice about how we deal with the inevitable consequences.

Hope you and your business can get through this.

I’m not sure how the admins would feel about it, but could there not be a thread started where people can post links to their small businesses websites etc? Even a few customers that they can grab from here could be the difference between them going under or not?

[Captain Trips]

The Diamond Princess is an interesting example.

[The 90+2]

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Did Trump provide the title for this thread?

Hell no Sir. I

[Billy Whizz]

Got a few relatives who work in the NHS, so asked them last night about cases in their hospitals
One works in Dumfries, and they have zero cases
The other works in the massive hospital in Birmingham, they have potentially 3 cases, but not confirmed

[Billy Whizz]

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The Diamond Princess is an interesting example.

Remind me

[Captain Trips]

Cruise ship currently with 100s infected sitting offshore. Interesting to see how it works in the confines of a smaller area.

[Betty Boop]

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Yes it is unquestionably an option.

Government could decide to firstly, quarantine the old and those most at risk in their homes, and then let the virus do it's thing within the rest of the population while keeping the economy otherwise untouched. Schools stay open, workplaces stay open, people are told to behave as normal. Most of us will probably get ill for a short time and then get better, most of us will probably develop a degree of immunity as a result and a number of us will get very ill and be hospitalised. Society limps on, the economy limps on and you wait for the vaccine to arrive.

Whether it is the correct option nobody knows, because nobody knows how this virus will behave next.

Workplaces stay open ? They are shutting down as we speak. Also the idea that 12 million old people are going to stay in their homes is unrealistic.

[Captain Trips]

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Workplaces stay open ? They are shutting down as we speak. Also the idea that 12 million old people are going to stay in their homes is unrealistic.

They want most of the country to stay in at the moment. Not all "old" people are ill or have illness. Some older folk are fitter than many younger ones. Would it not have been more manageable for a group off people to be careful with as much help as possible rather than having us all locked away?

The fact the millions upon millions of people in UK will not suffer greatly from the illness out of those millions will be plenty who like it or not will be thoroughly pissed off about the fact most folk are alright and will feel it was far to much upheaval even though largish death toll probably will not change that feeling.

[JeMeSouviens]

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They want most of the country to stay in at the moment. Not all "old" people are ill or have illness. Some older folk are fitter than many younger ones. Would it not have been more manageable for a group off people to be careful with as much help as possible rather than having us all locked away?

The fact the millions upon millions of people in UK will not suffer greatly from the illness out of those millions will be plenty who like it or not will be thoroughly pissed off about the fact most folk are alright and will feel it was far to much upheaval even though largish death toll probably will not change that feeling.

If/when (I think when far more likely) the news is full of overflowing hospital ICUs and old people left to die, I think most people will wise up.

[Captain Trips]

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If/when (I think when far more likely) the news is full of overflowing hospital ICUs and old people left to die, I think most people will wise up.

That though is only the fault of how it was managed, I am afraid lots of people will probably not wise up. This disease is deadly to a very small amount of people, unfortunatley it is deadly to more due to simply not enough facilities.

I imagine all the deaths in UK or most these people were given all the care possible while in Hospital and nothing could be done anyway? Or were all 55 not given the adequate care and could have lived?

[hibeesjoe]

People not spending money will mean businesses folding, jobs being lost and every knock on effect these bring. I'd much rather be helping society by paying taxes rather than claiming unemployment benefit. I can imagine crime would also rise if people get desperate.

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[Billy Whizz]

https://www.morrisons.jobs/

Looking for drivers, if anyone ends losing shifts or their job