General election 2019

[Hibernia&Alba]

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I would suggest the last five, even ten years have been a game changer when it comes to media influence.

People get their news feed online and through social media nowadays. And they often favour feeds that chime with their own views, which just reinforces silo-thinking.

You only need to look on here, where Twitter and blog links get posted as if they were fact. That’s not to say the traditional newspapers didn’t have their own biases but they don’t have the power and influence they did in years gone by. The Internet means people can find something that validates their own beliefs and then quote it as fact or gospel. And that is true for all shades of the political spectrum.

You may well have hit upon an important issue here. I don't do social media, meaning I'm spared the barrage it brings. You may well be right that many people, more than ever before, only read opinions that offer confirmation bias. I'm sceptical about the veracity of this so called 'anti-establishment era'.

I think we live in more conformist times than ever in terms of what constitutes a fulfilling life and a good society, namely a predominant belief that the accumulation of money and material possessions is the highest priority and the way to a happy life. Forty years of the neoliberal agenda has had an enormous impact, in my opinion, and I don't think the Labour governments of 1945 and 1964, for example, could get elected today.

[Mibbes Aye]

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I watched the debate. Sturgeon and Corbyn were the best 2 performers. Swinson had a nightmare and Johnson was very poor making sure he mentioned "stopping Brexit" and "one nation Conservative Party" whenever the opportunity arose.

What struck me as unusual for Question Time was that the audience appeared to be heavily weighted in favour of Corbyn which IMO suited Sturgeon too. They were very hostile towards Swinson giving her a real grilling around the Tory/Lib Dem coalition and her voting record on austerity.

As I said Sturgeon was good but I think talking to an audience in England who were not too genned up on the Scottish political scene and wasn't full of hard line Brexiteers suited her and, consequently, made life a bit easier for her than the other leaders.

Thats not too dissimilar from what I read and I probably underplayed Corbyn because he failed to come out in favour of Remain (not that he was ever going to, Seamas wouldn’t let him )

Take your point about Sturgeon, makes sense.

There is part of me that really dislikes the made-up venom against Swinson over the coalition. She was a junior minister, whipped to vote as part of an agreement that the Lib Dems thought would deliver a permanent, progressive and positive change to the electoral system.

That failed though. But even as a Labour Party member and a Brownite in old currency, it was clear in 2010 that Labour were simply not interested in dealing with the LDs after the election. It was also a tired administration. I don’t like what happened after 2010 but given the facts of the matter, I don’t blame the LDs for the course they took. I just pity the outcome.

[Hibernia&Alba]

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Thats not too dissimilar from what I read and I probably underplayed Corbyn because he failed to come out in favour of Remain (not that he was ever going to, Seamas wouldn’t let him )

Take your point about Sturgeon, makes sense.

There is part of me that really dislikes the made-up venom against Swinson over the coalition. She was a junior minister, whipped to vote as part of an agreement that the Lib Dems thought would deliver a permanent, progressive and positive change to the electoral system.

That failed though. But even as a Labour Party member and a Brownite in old currency, it was clear in 2010 that Labour were simply not interested in dealing with the LDs after the election. It was also a tired administration. I don’t like what happened after 2010 but given the facts of the matter, I don’t blame the LDs for the course they took. I just pity the outcome.

I can't accept that. Anybody who defines himself/herself as a progressive could not have voted for benefit cuts and the bedroom tax; surely you resign your post and declare that such policies are not what you signed up for, as they will hurt the least amongst us. That's called integrity before careerism.

[Mibbes Aye]

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I can't accept that. Anybody who defines himself/herself as a progressive could not have voted for benefit cuts and the bedroom tax; surely you resign your post and declare that such policies are not what you signed up for, as they will hurt the least amongst us. That's called integrity before careerism.

It’s not integrity or careerism. It is simply politics.

[Hibernia&Alba]

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It’s not integrity or careerism. It is simply politics.

Not when it hurts the weakest and poorest; those least able to defend themselves. You resign from government and speak out, if you're really a progressive.

[Frankhfc]

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Not when it hurts the weakest and poorest; those least able to defend themselves. You resign from government and speak out, if you're really a progressive.

Completely agree with you. The optimum way in which to achieve this is to have a vibrant flexible economy that is able to compete both in existing and emerging world markets. One that ensures government coffers are plentiful in which to share around and that helps the least able and worst off in society. Scotland can easily be that modern vibrant country under Sturgeon if let loose. The last thing we want is to become a dead socialist one that impoverishes all of us.

[Hibernia&Alba]

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Completely agree with you. The optimum way in which to achieve this is to have a vibrant flexible economy that is able to compete both in existing and emerging world markets. One that ensures government coffers are plentiful in which to share around and that helps the least able and worst off in society. Scotland can easily be that modern vibrant country under Sturgeon if let loose. The last thing we want is to become a dead socialist one that impoverishes all of us.

Frank your post started really well, lost momentum and then completely collapsed at the end

[Frankhfc]

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Frank your post started really well, lost momentum and then completely collapsed at the end

Fair do's mate.

I just think when we do go independent that we're really going to have to shape up to make our mark and that will involve a great deal of realism over ideology.

[degenerated]

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I said a few weeks ago that, in politics, a generation refers to the length of a government. 5 years is a political generation as every new government brings change. Are you suggesting that we, the electorate, shouldn't get to change a government every 5 years if we think things are not working?

The northern ireland act of 1998 states that if a border poll is held that it cannot be held again until a political generation has expired. A political generation is defined as being 7 years. The three main british unionist parties with Scottish branch offices are signatories to that agreement.
I would humbly suggest that this would suffice as precedent.

Though the whole once in a generation claim is a particularly poor one.

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[Moulin Yarns]

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I don’t see any arguing. Moulin Yarns keeps repeating his point and I merely posted that I think it’s entirely false.

Keeps repeating!!!!?

Honestly, have you any idea how often I have posted my opinion on the length of a political generation?

Feel free to have a guess, because that's all it would be.



EDIT. Just seen the post from Degenerated which 'almost' confirmed my view. Thanks, I knew it was something I had heard somewhere.

[Smartie]

Even as a Yes voter I have an issue with the idea of constantly asking the question until you get the answer you want (and this relates to Scottish independence as well as revoking article 50 as well as possibly holding another Brexit referendum). I've made the point on here before that I think the case for Scottish independence is stronger than the case for a second referendum.

How often you should ask any question is hard to pin down and we'll all have our own opinions. Much of this debate is about semantics - picking apart what Alex Salmond may or may not have said in a tv interview a few years ago as if this should count as gospel is ridiculous.

Under any normal situation I'd be against Scotland having another referendum now - we made our bed, we need to lie in it.

I can't understand how anyone would see Brexit as anything other than a game changer though. Leaving the EU is a big deal, and only 5 years after the last referendum the main battlegrounds upon which that fight were fought have changed beyond recognition and I don't see how anyone can dispute that.

Whether that takes 5 or 50 years, there is a legitimate debate to be had about putting the question back to the people.

I have some sympathy with the viewpoint that upon voting to remain within the UK that we chose to be vulnerable to acts of English nationalist self-harm such as Brexit that could seriously damage our lives and prospects and that we have to just live with that. Some sympathy, not much though.

My main concern about another referendum is the thought of losing it and what it might be like here for the years and decades to come after such a vote.

[Mibbes Aye]

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Not when it hurts the weakest and poorest; those least able to defend themselves. You resign from government and speak out, if you're really a progressive.

I must have missed all those SNP resignations when they enforced the council tax freeze year after year.

It benefitted the richest over the poorest. The absolute poorest didn’t gain at all because they were exempt to begin with.

It was a middle class bribe. The double whammy was it deprived funding to local authorities. The services they had to cut were the ones they didn’t have a statutory duty to provide.

Those were the services that the poorest and most marginalised depended upon most. A lot of those services were never touched by people on a fair to decent income, but were touched by those on benefits or low incomes.

Not progressive in the slightest. But is was politics, I recognise that.

[Mibbes Aye]

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Keeps repeating!!!!?

Honestly, have you any idea how often I have posted my opinion on the length of a political generation?

Feel free to have a guess, because that's all it would be.



EDIT. Just seen the post from Degenerated which 'almost' confirmed my view. Thanks, I knew it was something I had heard somewhere.

As it happens I am familiar with the legislation. And I am also familiar with the general definition of a ‘generation’

The NI legislation doesn’t talk about ‘generations’. It talks about legal requirements that stipulate the SoS for NI has to ensure there is at least a seven year gap between border polls and that is caveated heavily by the circumstances in which he/she would consider such a poll.

That is before we get to it being part of the Good Friday agreement which automatically makes it so very, very different from any other part of the U.K.

Do you still want to keep claiming that a one-term Westminster government is a ‘generation’ because frankly it doesn’t stand up to any scrutiny?

[Ozyhibby]

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I must have missed all those SNP resignations when they enforced the council tax freeze year after year.

It benefitted the richest over the poorest. The absolute poorest didn’t gain at all because they were exempt to begin with.

It was a middle class bribe. The double whammy was it deprived funding to local authorities. The services they had to cut were the ones they didn’t have a statutory duty to provide.

Those were the services that the poorest and most marginalised depended upon most. A lot of those services were never touched by people on a fair to decent income, but were touched by those on benefits or low incomes.

Not progressive in the slightest. But is was politics, I recognise that.

You make a good point about it being a bribe. It totally was an absolute full on retail offer to win votes. Where I disagree was about it being a middle class bribe. It wasn’t. It was a middle and working class bribe. When the offer was made the council tax had almost doubled in the previous ten years. It wasn’t just the middle class who were pee’d off with this. That wouldn’t have been enough to win. Everyone was pee’d off with the situation. The only people who didn’t care about the way council tax rates had been going were people who were exempt. And they are not great voters. That’s how politics works though in a democracy. You have to find an issue that the majority of the population agrees with and offer a solution. This was a gift to the SNP from a Labour Party that thought they could do whatever they liked in Scotland and it would not matter, they would be returned to govt without question.
Independence was no more than just a pipe dream in 2007, but the council tax freeze gave the SNP a way in. Once in power they cemented their position with a combination of framing Westminster as the opposition (a new labour trick with the Brown/Blair thing) and being very competent in office.
The one thing the independence movement does not thank enough is the Labour Party and their mistaken belief that they could just keeping dipping the pockets of Scottish voters through the council tax.


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[Cataplana]

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Fair do's mate.

I just think when we do go independent that we're really going to have to shape up to make our mark and that will involve a great deal of realism over ideology.

I'll be looking for a lot more detail instead of hyperbole.

[CloudSquall]

Does the "Once in a Generation" statement mean anything if the electorate keeps deciding to give the SNP the mandate to push for another referendum?

If the electorate don't want one and really do want to abide by the "once in a generation" statement they can vote for Carlaw, Leonhard and Rennie.

[CloudSquall]

Scottish Westminster Voting Intention:

SNP: 40% (+1)
CON: 28% (+7)
LAB: 20% (+1)
LDM: 11% (-2)

Via
@Panelbase
, 20-22 Nov.
Changes w/ 9-11 Oct.

Not sure if the Tories are getting a boost from the Brexit Party standing down but my SNP Gain night doesn't look so promising..

[Just_Jimmy]

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Scottish Westminster Voting Intention:

SNP: 40% (+1)
CON: 28% (+7)
LAB: 20% (+1)
LDM: 11% (-2)

Via
@Panelbase
, 20-22 Nov.
Changes w/ 9-11 Oct.

Not sure if the Tories are getting a boost from the Brexit Party standing down but my SNP Gain night doesn't look so promising..

That's simply

Yes v no.


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[Ozyhibby]

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[Hibernia&Alba]

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Even as a Yes voter I have an issue with the idea of constantly asking the question until you get the answer you want (and this relates to Scottish independence as well as revoking article 50 as well as possibly holding another Brexit referendum). I've made the point on here before that I think the case for Scottish independence is stronger than the case for a second referendum.

How often you should ask any question is hard to pin down and we'll all have our own opinions. Much of this debate is about semantics - picking apart what Alex Salmond may or may not have said in a tv interview a few years ago as if this should count as gospel is ridiculous.

Under any normal situation I'd be against Scotland having another referendum now - we made our bed, we need to lie in it.

I can't understand how anyone would see Brexit as anything other than a game changer though. Leaving the EU is a big deal, and only 5 years after the last referendum the main battlegrounds upon which that fight were fought have changed beyond recognition and I don't see how anyone can dispute that.

Whether that takes 5 or 50 years, there is a legitimate debate to be had about putting the question back to the people.

I have some sympathy with the viewpoint that upon voting to remain within the UK that we chose to be vulnerable to acts of English nationalist self-harm such as Brexit that could seriously damage our lives and prospects and that we have to just live with that. Some sympathy, not much though.

My main concern about another referendum is the thought of losing it and what it might be like here for the years and decades to come after such a vote.

You may have a point, but it's a completely different issue and isn't comparable to cutting benefits to the disabled, for example. For what it's worth I would abolish the council tax as a way of raising local government funds, as it's related to property value, and replace it with a local income tax which is based upon earnings and is therefore truly in line with ability to pay. However, that's another issue.

[Hibernia&Alba]

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Should this be anything like accurate, I think the union could be finished within a couple of years. A stronger Tory Party and a stronger SNP in a post-Brexit UK would not hold together. I think it would be game over.

[G B Young]

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'Weasel words'.

I'm not sure your hatred of Mr Corbyn is entirely healthy.

I don't hate him. I just think he's a spectacularly awful leader of the Labour Party who we'll hopefully see the back of in a couple of weeks.

[G B Young]

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Can't get past the paywall to see what the figures are based on but the Telegraph's citing a poll predicting a 64-seat majority:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...jority-brexit/

[CloudSquall]

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That's simply

Yes v no.


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I read further that if the poll was correct Labour would lose all seats in Scotland bar Ian Murray (who's elected on a personal vote rather than a Labour vote), trying to out union the Tories is a disaster.

It seems a lot depends on how uniformed the percentages are across Scotland, if the percentages for the Tories were the same across Scotland they would lose one seat (Stirling), but they would lose another 4 if the swing was more than 2% away from them than in the poll.


The Times is saying the below, I'm hoping this is the typical "sources say" nonsense but could there really be that many nationalists willing to vote Tory for Brexit?

"SNP sources say there has been significant levels of doorstep feedback showing people who tend to vote nationalist will vote Tory this time due to their support for Brexit."



I'd imagine they will pull in votes from the north due to the fishing communities and in the South due to the fermers, but elsewhere? I'm guessing the "No Surrender / Follow on" types too..

[marinello59]

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That's simply

Yes v no.


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Let's hope not because if that was the case only 40% of the Scottish electorate would be backing Independence.
Even in Scotland the main issue for many will be Brexit and we tend to forget the 38% of the Scottish electorate were in favour of it. Many of them, no matter which party they normally support, will be willing to lend their vote to the Tories this time round, they have nowhere else to go.

[marinello59]

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I read further that if the poll was correct Labour would lose all seats in Scotland bar Ian Murray (who's elected on a personal vote rather than a Labour vote), trying to out union the Tories is a disaster.

It seems a lot depends on how uniformed the percentages are across Scotland, if the percentages for the Tories were the same across Scotland they would lose one seat (Stirling), but they would lose another 4 if the swing was more than 2% away from them than in the poll.


The Times is saying the below, I'm hoping this is the typical "sources say" nonsense but could there really be that many nationalists willing to vote Tory for Brexit?

"SNP sources say there has been significant levels of doorstep feedback showing people who tend to vote nationalist will vote Tory this time due to their support for Brexit."



I'd imagine they will pull in votes from the north due to the fishing communities and in the South due to the fermers, but elsewhere? I'm guessing the "No Surrender / Follow on" types too..

Why not? It would be a win - win for Nationalists who support Brexit. If the Tories gain a majority and Brexit happens as looks likely the pressure in Scotland for another referendum will be greatly increased.

[The Harp Awakes]

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Let's hope not because if that was the case only 40% of the Scottish electorate would be backing Independence.
Even in Scotland the main issue for many will be Brexit and we tend to forget the 38% of the Scottish electorate were in favour of it. Many of them, no matter which party they normally support, will be willing to lend their vote to the Tories this time round, they have nowhere else to go.

A 40% poll in a GE would be a very solid result for the SNP and would see their number of seats increase to approaching 50. There will be many Yes voters who won't vote SNP in a GE for whatever reason; constituency tactical voting, many will vote Labour as the SNP can't win a GE, many will vote green and others just won't be @rsed to vote.

[marinello59]

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A 40% poll in a GE would be a very solid result for the SNP and would see their number of seats increase to approaching 50. There will be many Yes voters who won't vote SNP in a GE for whatever reason; constituency tactical voting, many will vote Labour as the SNP can't win a GE, many will vote green and others just won't be @rsed to vote.

I'll be holding my nose and voting SNP as I think it's really important to register my support for Independence and against Brexit this time round. But if we portray this as a Yes/No election rather than a Brexit election in Scotland that 40% figure could be used against us. That's the point I was trying to make badly. (And continuing to make it badly, I know what I mean. )

[CloudSquall]

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Why not? It would be a win - win for Nationalists who support Brexit. If the Tories gain a majority and Brexit happens as looks likely the pressure in Scotland for another referendum will be greatly increased.

If the polls are correct Boris is heading for a majority, seats or no seats in Scotland, if we have a biggish block of Tory MPs north of the border with a minimal increase in SNP seats they will argue there is no appetite for a new referendum.

[marinello59]

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If the polls are correct Boris is heading for a majority, seats or no seats in Scotland, if we have a biggish block of Tory MPs north of the border with a minimal increase in SNP seats they will argue there is no appetite for a new referendum.

They are going to say that regardless of the result.