Brexit - What Now.

***Ozyhibby*** · 18-10-2019 12:35 PM

Looks like 10 of the Tories who were expelled from the party are voting against because it’s possible to leave with no deal at the end of the transition period which is only one year. If that happens then the deal will fail.

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***Moulin Yarns*** · 18-10-2019 12:37 PM

Originally Posted by lapsedhibee

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Different in one important respect: GB can leave without a deal at the end of the transition period.

Saw this

EXCLUSIVE: Tory Right-wingers asking Attorney General to confirm UK could crash out "no deal" in a year if no free trade deal struck with EU - full story @joemurphylondon and @nicholascecil https://t.co/DQXTEosHge

***danhibees1875*** · 18-10-2019 12:38 PM

Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

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When it comes to trade deals, size matters. The EU is a big player and when they negotiate, it is as equals with China and the US.
Small economies fight for scraps of the table. The are big bourbon producers in the US who fight hard to keep Whiskey out.

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Thanks.

Fully agreed with the first point already in general it's a good rule of thumb, and I don't see us getting to the point where all deals are as good as they once were. I just thought there was maybe one sliver of positivity available if the EU and US are going to get tangled up and Trump would be more open to having lower tarrifs for the UK once we leave; even as an egotistical two fingers to the EU.

It's all guess work and I think your second point about bourbon industries could be telling if it comes down to it anyway - I hadn't considered that.

Is there a wider point of grievance around the EU subsidising Airbus and ultimately causing a fair bit of pain to one of Scotland's biggest exports?

I've not followed it much beyond the headlines until I read an article yesterday, but if Westminster had been playing around with subsidies and put a large chunk of the Scottish economy in jeopardy as a result I think there would be a fair bit of, justified, anger directed at them. Or were the EU doing the right thing and it's generally the US' fault in this instance?

***Ozyhibby*** · 18-10-2019 12:51 PM

Originally Posted by danhibees1875

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Thanks.

Fully agreed with the first point already in general it's a good rule of thumb, and I don't see us getting to the point where all deals are as good as they once were. I just thought there was maybe one sliver of positivity available if the EU and US are going to get tangled up and Trump would be more open to having lower tarrifs for the UK once we leave; even as an egotistical two fingers to the EU.

It's all guess work and I think your second point about bourbon industries could be telling if it comes down to it anyway - I hadn't considered that.

Is there a wider point of grievance around the EU subsidising Airbus and ultimately causing a fair bit of pain to one of Scotland's biggest exports?

I've not followed it much beyond the headlines until I read an article yesterday, but if Westminster had been playing around with subsidies and put a large chunk of the Scottish economy in jeopardy as a result I think there would be a fair bit of, justified, anger directed at them. Or were the EU doing the right thing and it's generally the US' fault in this instance?

There is another case going through the courts just now about the US subsidising Boeing. We are likely to hit them with tariffs in reply.

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**~~southsider~~** · 18-10-2019 12:59 PM

Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

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There is another case going through the courts just now about the US subsidising Boeing. We are likely to hit them with tariffs in reply.

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Who is we ? Scotland ? UK ? or EU ? Or all or none ? If UK crashes out a trade war will be needed like a hole in the head.

***Ozyhibby*** · 18-10-2019 01:04 PM

Originally Posted by southsider

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Who is we ? Scotland ? UK ? or EU ? Or all or none ? If UK crashes out a trade war will be needed like a hole in the head.

EU

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**~~southsider~~** · 18-10-2019 01:34 PM

Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

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EU

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So if UK leaves American tariffs will be replaced with EU one’s or will we (Scotland) be hit with both ? London doesn’t give a **** but firms may close and people loose their jobs. Johnston & Trump two cheeks on the same arse.

**Killiehibbie** · 18-10-2019 01:57 PM

Originally Posted by southsider

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So if UK leaves American tariffs will be replaced with EU one’s or will we (Scotland) be hit with both ? London doesn’t give a **** but firms may close and people loose their jobs. Johnston & Trump two cheeks on the same arse.

I would guess existing US tariffs would stand until a new agreement was reached and we get a double whammy with EU tariffs.

***Ozyhibby*** · 18-10-2019 02:13 PM

Originally Posted by southsider

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So if UK leaves American tariffs will be replaced with EU one’s or will we (Scotland) be hit with both ? London doesn’t give a **** but firms may close and people loose their jobs. Johnston & Trump two cheeks on the same arse.

We would have both as we wouldn’t have a trade deal with either the US or EU.

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***Ozyhibby*** · 18-10-2019 03:11 PM

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/stat...490916872?s=21

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**Since90+2** · 18-10-2019 03:52 PM

FT currently forecasting that Johnson will win the vote by 1 or 2 votes.

*****.

**~~Cataplana~~** · 18-10-2019 04:03 PM

Originally Posted by Since90+2

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FT currently forecasting that Johnson will win the vote by 1 or 2 votes.

*****.

They better be confident that everyone they asked told them the truth. That is too fine a margin to call.

**Since90+2** · 18-10-2019 04:17 PM

Originally Posted by Cataplana

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They better be confident that everyone they asked told them the truth. That is too fine a margin to call.

Too close for my liking anyway.

***Ozyhibby*** · 18-10-2019 04:27 PM

Gauke now backing the deal. Can see the deal getting through now.
Not good for Scotland at all but a great result for Ireland and it moves them closer to re-unification.

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**~~G B Young~~** · 18-10-2019 04:46 PM

Brexit deal ruled 'legal' by Court of Session:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-50088993

***Ozyhibby*** · 18-10-2019 04:51 PM

Originally Posted by G B Young

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Brexit deal ruled 'legal' by Court of Session:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-50088993

I’m glad of that. I’m not in favour of running to the courts when there is parliament available.

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**~~G B Young~~** · 18-10-2019 04:58 PM

Originally Posted by Pretty Boy

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If I had closed negotiations with someone and then they came back and proposed a deal that was better for me and worse for them then I'd probably be open to restarting talks as well.

This isn't some marvellous bit of statesmanship by Johnson, he hasn't 'overcome' anything. It's taking a bad deal, making it worse and hailing it as a success. People seem to be falling for it as well. For all his faults there is little doubt that Johnson is a master manipulator, people buy into him in a way that is almost cult like.

How is it a worse deal? It seems to be generally accepted that Johnson's deal is all but identical to May's deal with the exception that it gets rid of the Irish backstop. Bearing in mind that this was the issue which so many MPs claimed made the deal unacceptable, you'd assume that by getting rid of it they would now see the deal as a better one? Hopefully that will prove to be the case tomorrow and we can finally make some sort of progress.

***Callum_62*** · 18-10-2019 05:00 PM

Originally Posted by G B Young

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How is it a worse deal? It seems to be generally accepted that Johnson's deal is all but identical to May's deal with the exception that it gets rid of the Irish backstop. Bearing in mind that this was the issue which so many MPs claimed made the deal unacceptable, you'd assume that by getting rid of it they would now see the deal as a better one? Hopefully that will prove to be the case tomorrow and we can finally make some sort of progress.

It's moves alot of the good stuff like workers rights onto the PD. Meaning we can chose to scrap the standards any point. Also makes a no deal a possibility further down the road

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***grunt*** · 18-10-2019 05:15 PM

Originally Posted by lapsedhibee

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Did he really say that? He must shirley be the thickest person ever to make foreign secretary.

https://twitter.com/MarieAnnUK/statu...43922089189376

***grunt*** · 18-10-2019 05:21 PM

Led by donkeys

https://www.youtube.com/embed/gxpq96iQ6BU

**Chorley Hibee** · 18-10-2019 05:49 PM

Oliver Letwin amendment set to throw the proverbial cat amongst the pigeons.

***Hibernia&Alba*** · 18-10-2019 05:50 PM

Originally Posted by Since90+2

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FT currently forecasting that Johnson will win the vote by 1 or 2 votes.

*****.

If the DUP do indeed all vote against, it will come down to how many Labour MPs are prepared to vote for it. It's going to be very tight either way.

***Ozyhibby*** · 18-10-2019 05:53 PM

Originally Posted by G B Young

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How is it a worse deal? It seems to be generally accepted that Johnson's deal is all but identical to May's deal with the exception that it gets rid of the Irish backstop. Bearing in mind that this was the issue which so many MPs claimed made the deal unacceptable, you'd assume that by getting rid of it they would now see the deal as a better one? Hopefully that will prove to be the case tomorrow and we can finally make some sort of progress.

It didn’t so much get rid of the back stop as make it a certainty but only for NI. They are now permanently in the CU and SM and it is no longer dependent on a deal being achieved.
NI will now have to lobby Dublin on trade issues.

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***Ozyhibby*** · 18-10-2019 05:55 PM

Originally Posted by Hibernia&Alba

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If the DUP do indeed all vote against, it will come down to how many Labour MPs are prepared to vote for it. It's going to be very tight either way.

Corbyn saying there will be no sanctions on Labour mp’s voting for the deal means they have effectively given them a free vote.

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***Callum_62*** · 18-10-2019 06:00 PM

Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

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Corbyn saying there will be no sanctions on Labour mp’s voting for the deal means they have effectively given them a free vote.

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Why wouldn't they 3 line whip?

Not as if its not important or anything

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***Ozyhibby*** · 18-10-2019 06:12 PM

Originally Posted by Callum_62

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Why wouldn't they 3 line whip?

Not as if its not important or anything

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Technically it is a three line whip but the leader is saying it’s ok if you ignore it.

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***Jack*** · 18-10-2019 06:22 PM

Originally Posted by G B Young

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How is it a worse deal? It seems to be generally accepted that Johnson's deal is all but identical to May's deal with the exception that it gets rid of the Irish backstop. Bearing in mind that this was the issue which so many MPs claimed made the deal unacceptable, you'd assume that by getting rid of it they would now see the deal as a better one? Hopefully that will prove to be the case tomorrow and we can finally make some sort of progress.

I heard one commentator saying they had only removed the term The Irish Backstop and replaced it with something else. Not much else had changed.

**CloudSquall** · 18-10-2019 06:33 PM

It feels like a kick in the balls knowing it's the staunch 1690 types like Ross Thomson and co that parts of Scotland decided to vote in that are dragging this over the line tomorrow...