Brexit - What Now.

[Pretty Boy]

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Well Dominic Raab this morning forecast a positive economic future for NI. Dominic Raab hails a “cracking deal” for Northern Ireland because it will keep “frictionless access to the single market”.

Quite.

It's almost as if being part of a union of European nations with a single market and customs union is a good idea......

[lapsedhibee]

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Well Dominic Raab this morning forecast a positive economic future for NI. Dominic Raab hails a “cracking deal” for Northern Ireland because it will keep “frictionless access to the single market”.

Quite.

Did he really say that? He must shirley be the thickest person ever to make foreign secretary.

[G B Young]

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For a moment forget about the opinions of the noisy fanatics like hardcore remainers, SNP activists and corbynites.

the rest of us (I.e. 90% of the uk population):
* are sick of the uncertainty to their jobs and business.
* are sick of seeing elected officials pandering to the extreme.
* don’t want to rerun the referendum - it’s done, leave won, MP’s should be getting on with it.
* don’t want this going on any longer than the end of this month.

take a look at all the papers this morning - telling MPs to just back the deal. It’s a water shed moment - leave labour MPs will back it and know they can now as it has public support.

boris landslide majority is inevitable either way now - he delivered what he said he would and is getting brexit done. If it doesn’t happen it is no longer his fault. The other parties are in damage limitation mode now as:
* Boris is keeping all Tory seats currently held.
* All marginal seats where the tories are within 10% of either labour or the SNP are turning blue.
* Lib Dem’s will hoover up some marginals where they battle with labour and the SNP.

2nd referendums and no deal votes are arguments for the minority of noisy fanatics, the majority of the country will just be glad we finally have someone we can vote for who will act and get things done. Boris has smashed it - FOR THE WHOLE UK!

Even the Guardian (which couldn't be more anti-Johnson) is urging MPs just to get this done:

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...brexit-britain

As you say, Johnson has defied all expectations. The EU insisted the Withdrawal Agreement couldn't be re-opened, that the May deal was the only deal and that the Irish backstop was set in stone. He insisted he could overcome all that and he has. His opponents accused him of making no effort to secure a deal yet he's secured one.

No Deal can now be taken off the table, but now we see his opponents' true colours laid bare. It's not No Deal they're determined to avoid, it's any deal at all - or at least any deal brokered by a Tory PM. As the Guardian says, Corbyn's opposition bears no scrutiny now. It's about little more than embarrassing Johnson. Pathetic.

[Jack]

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Why are there no positive economic forecasts?

You mean some sort of Puff piece?

[Hibbyradge]

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Even the Guardian (which couldn't be more anti-Johnson) is urging MPs just to get this done:

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...brexit-britain

As you say, Johnson has defied all expectations. The EU insisted the Withdrawal Agreement couldn't be re-opened, that the May deal was the only deal and that the Irish backstop was set in stone. He insisted he could overcome all that and he has. His opponents accused him of making no effort to secure a deal yet he's secured one.

No Deal can now be taken off the table, but now we see his opponents' true colours laid bare. It's not No Deal they're determined to avoid, it's any deal at all - or at least any deal brokered by a Tory PM. As the Guardian says, Corbyn's opposition bears no scrutiny now. It's about little more than embarrassing Johnson. Pathetic.

Why are you pretending to be surprised?

Labour has consistently said that it will oppose any Tory deal that is bad for the country. And rightly so.

The thing is, it's more or less a no deal for everyone bar NI.

[Callum_62]

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Even the Guardian (which couldn't be more anti-Johnson) is urging MPs just to get this done:

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...brexit-britain

As you say, Johnson has defied all expectations. The EU insisted the Withdrawal Agreement couldn't be re-opened, that the May deal was the only deal and that the Irish backstop was set in stone. He insisted he could overcome all that and he has. His opponents accused him of making no effort to secure a deal yet he's secured one.

No Deal can now be taken off the table, but now we see his opponents' true colours laid bare. It's not No Deal they're determined to avoid, it's any deal at all - or at least any deal brokered by a Tory PM. As the Guardian says, Corbyn's opposition bears no scrutiny now. It's about little more than embarrassing Johnson. Pathetic.

Uh huh

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[Bristolhibby]

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Even the Guardian (which couldn't be more anti-Johnson) is urging MPs just to get this done:

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...brexit-britain

As you say, Johnson has defied all expectations. The EU insisted the Withdrawal Agreement couldn't be re-opened, that the May deal was the only deal and that the Irish backstop was set in stone. He insisted he could overcome all that and he has. His opponents accused him of making no effort to secure a deal yet he's secured one.

No Deal can now be taken off the table, but now we see his opponents' true colours laid bare. It's not No Deal they're determined to avoid, it's any deal at all - or at least any deal brokered by a Tory PM. As the Guardian says, Corbyn's opposition bears no scrutiny now. It's about little more than embarrassing Johnson. Pathetic.

Thing is, no deal can be back on the table. This “deal” just gives us two years transition. The actual deal, (the trade and future relationship deal), could in effect take us to no deal type situation.

Does anyone trust a Tory party with a majority (based on “Getting Brexit done”) will do anything other than what’s good for the Tories?

It has to be defeated tomorrow, or at least get an amendment passed taking it back to the people in a straight Johnston’s deal v revoke.

J

[Hibbyradge]

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Thing is, no deal can be back on the table. This “deal” just gives us two years transition. The actual deal, (the trade and future relationship deal), could in effect take us to no deal type situation.

Does anyone trust a Tory party with a majority (based on “Getting Brexit done”) will do anything other than what’s good for the Tories?

It has to be defeated tomorrow, or at least get an amendment passed taking it back to the people in a straight Johnston’s deal v revoke.

J

I thought it was 1 year's transition?

[cabbageandribs1875]

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Is that 1 Lib Dem Jo Swinson?

lol, i'm thinking maybe one of their new-found members, maybe chuka umunna ?

[Ozyhibby]

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Even the Guardian (which couldn't be more anti-Johnson) is urging MPs just to get this done:

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...brexit-britain

As you say, Johnson has defied all expectations. The EU insisted the Withdrawal Agreement couldn't be re-opened, that the May deal was the only deal and that the Irish backstop was set in stone. He insisted he could overcome all that and he has. His opponents accused him of making no effort to secure a deal yet he's secured one.

No Deal can now be taken off the table, but now we see his opponents' true colours laid bare. It's not No Deal they're determined to avoid, it's any deal at all - or at least any deal brokered by a Tory PM. As the Guardian says, Corbyn's opposition bears no scrutiny now. It's about little more than embarrassing Johnson. Pathetic.

He signed a deal that gives NI to the EU. Theresa May could have got that deal.
Your right about a GE though. Johnson gets this through on Saturday and he wins a massive majority (50/60 seats) in the GE.


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[Mr Grieves]

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I thought it was 1 year's transition?

14 months, were we are still part of the EU but not involved in any decision making. In that time, the UK government and the EU will attempt to negotiate a free trade agreement(reminder that the withdrawal agreement was meant to be the easy part!)If there's no agreement the transition period can be extended, or there will be no deal for great britain while the special provisions for Northern Ireland would kick in.

This is not the end of no deal brexit. The thought of a tory majority, with this deal, is terrifying.

[Hibrandenburg]

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Even the Guardian (which couldn't be more anti-Johnson) is urging MPs just to get this done:

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...brexit-britain

As you say, Johnson has defied all expectations. The EU insisted the Withdrawal Agreement couldn't be re-opened, that the May deal was the only deal and that the Irish backstop was set in stone. He insisted he could overcome all that and he has. His opponents accused him of making no effort to secure a deal yet he's secured one.

No Deal can now be taken off the table, but now we see his opponents' true colours laid bare. It's not No Deal they're determined to avoid, it's any deal at all - or at least any deal brokered by a Tory PM. As the Guardian says, Corbyn's opposition bears no scrutiny now. It's about little more than embarrassing Johnson. Pathetic.

.

[Pretty Boy]

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Even the Guardian (which couldn't be more anti-Johnson) is urging MPs just to get this done:

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...brexit-britain

As you say, Johnson has defied all expectations. The EU insisted the Withdrawal Agreement couldn't be re-opened, that the May deal was the only deal and that the Irish backstop was set in stone. He insisted he could overcome all that and he has. His opponents accused him of making no effort to secure a deal yet he's secured one.

No Deal can now be taken off the table, but now we see his opponents' true colours laid bare. It's not No Deal they're determined to avoid, it's any deal at all - or at least any deal brokered by a Tory PM. As the Guardian says, Corbyn's opposition bears no scrutiny now. It's about little more than embarrassing Johnson. Pathetic.

If I had closed negotiations with someone and then they came back and proposed a deal that was better for me and worse for them then I'd probably be open to restarting talks as well.

This isn't some marvellous bit of statesmanship by Johnson, he hasn't 'overcome' anything. It's taking a bad deal, making it worse and hailing it as a success. People seem to be falling for it as well. For all his faults there is little doubt that Johnson is a master manipulator, people buy into him in a way that is almost cult like.

[southsider]

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It basically boils down to a small minded Trumpesque 'make Britain great again' mentality.

People who genuinely seem to believe we can turn the clock back to sometime between 1850 and 1960 and rebuild an empire. Of course most of these people have no idea what life was actually like for 'ordinary, Working people' in that period. Clue - it wasn't good.

The working man in 1918 worked a 59 hour week. The Riot Act was read in
Glasgow after a strike for a 40 hour week.

[Hibernia&Alba]

This is just bizarre. Johnson has tweaked the May deal to a tiny degree; the very same deal he railed against and used to plot against May. Now he says it's fantastic and everyone should support it. The man is incorrigible. Even the DUP can see it's essentially the same deal as Teresa May failed with, and will vote accordingly. What Johnson has in his favour is the imminent Brexit deadline date, which will make some MPs afraid to vote against it, as they want to avoid the possibility of no deal at this very late stage.

It looks like tomorrow's vote will be very tight, with the odds slightly against Johnson. If he loses the vote, the Benn Act says he must request an extension, but the EU seem to be saying they wouldn't grant one. Everything is up for grabs here.

[Hibbyradge]

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This is just bizarre. Johnson has tweaked the May deal to a tiny degree; the very same deal he railed against and used to plot against May. Now he says it's fantastic and everyone should support it. The man is incorrigible. Even the DUP can see it's essentially the same deal as Teresa May failed with, and will vote accordingly. What Johnson has in his favour is the imminent Brexit deadline date, which will make some MPs afraid to vote against it, as they want to avoid the possibility of no deal at this very late stage.

It looks like tomorrow's vote will be very tight, with the odds slightly against Johnson. If he loses the vote, the Benn Act says he must request an extension, but the EU seem to be saying they wouldn't grant one. Everything is up for grabs here.

They definitely will grant an extension if it's requested.

[lapsedhibee]

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This is just bizarre. Johnson has tweaked the May deal to a tiny degree...

Different in one important respect: GB can leave without a deal at the end of the transition period.

[Cataplana]

The number one question that has to be answered now is why should Northern Ireland benefit from free trade with the EU, when the rest of the Union doesn't?

[Hibernia&Alba]

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They definitely will grant an extension if it's requested.

Let's hope so. But we must bear in mind that 27 EU countries have now TWICE agreed a deal; if Westminster again says 'no thanks', there has to be a chance the EU will say enough is enough, just go.

[Hibbyradge]

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Different in one important respect: GB can leave without a deal at the end of the transition period.

Which is why the ERG are supporting it.

[Hibernia&Alba]

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Which is why the ERG are supporting it.

Some of them might not, influenced by the DUP opposition. Looks like the vote will be very close.

[weecounty hibby]

DUP have reiterated that they won't back Johnson on the deal

[wpj]

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English Begbie. Probably has boris on his back

[Cataplana]

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English Begbie. Probably has boris on his back

Or wishes he did.

[Hibernia&Alba]

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Or wishes he did.

[Mr Grieves]

https://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/201...being-proposed

[Killiehibbie]

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If I had closed negotiations with someone and then they came back and proposed a deal that was better for me and worse for them then I'd probably be open to restarting talks as well.

This isn't some marvellous bit of statesmanship by Johnson, he hasn't 'overcome' anything. It's taking a bad deal, making it worse and hailing it as a success. People seem to be falling for it as well. For all his faults there is little doubt that Johnson is a master manipulator, people buy into him in a way that is almost cult like.

Not quite but very close.

[danhibees1875]

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Why are there no positive economic forecasts?

I'm by no means in favour of Brexit, and I'll happily be told why I'm likely picking this up wrong, but I'm surprised nothing has been made of the US tarrif on EU imports which is going to have a huge impact on the scottish whisky industry.

Surely outwith the EU, we'll be able to strike a better deal for our US whisky exports (20% of whisky sales apparently) without being tangled in some EU Vs US tarrif war.

Not really a "forecast" like you asked, but maybe something.

[lapsedhibee]

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I'm by no means in favour of Brexit, and I'll happily be told why I'm likely picking this up wrong, but I'm surprised nothing has been made of the US tarrif on EU imports which is going to have a huge impact on the scottish whisky industry.

Surely outwith the EU, we'll be able to strike a better deal for our US whisky exports (20% of whisky sales apparently) without being tangled in some EU Vs US tarrif war.

Not really a "forecast" like you asked, but maybe something.

Course we will. Sunny uplands and that. When it comes to negotiating with the US, we'll hold all the cards.

[Ozyhibby]

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I'm by no means in favour of Brexit, and I'll happily be told why I'm likely picking this up wrong, but I'm surprised nothing has been made of the US tarrif on EU imports which is going to have a huge impact on the scottish whisky industry.

Surely outwith the EU, we'll be able to strike a better deal for our US whisky exports (20% of whisky sales apparently) without being tangled in some EU Vs US tarrif war.

Not really a "forecast" like you asked, but maybe something.

When it comes to trade deals, size matters. The EU is a big player and when they negotiate, it is as equals with China and the US.
Small economies fight for scraps of the table. The are big bourbon producers in the US who fight hard to keep Whiskey out.


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