Brexit - What Now.

[Colr]

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Lloyds shares up almost 12% today. Maybe I should sell before the talks collapse.

Someone could make lot of money from this volatility.

[lapsedhibee]

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Someone could make lot of money from this volatility.

Let's hope that no-one except Johnson knew that he was going to make a sudden dramatic change in his policy this week. If he had given advance warning to just a couple of his backers, say, they might have unfairly benefited financially, which he would have been appalled at.

[southsider]

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Let's hope that no-one except Johnson knew that he was going to make a sudden dramatic change in his policy this week. If he had given advance warning to just a couple of his backers, say, they might have unfairly benefited financially, which he would have been appalled at.

Fancy that ! Many might call that insider trading but Boris would never break the law, would he ?

[Cataplana]

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Fancy that ! Many might call that insider trading but Boris would never break the law, would he ?

I would be more annoyed if he hadn't called me first.

[RyeSloan]

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Fancy that ! Many might call that insider trading but Boris would never break the law, would he ?

Last week it was they were making millions shorting the pound, this week it’s making millions long on the pound and RBS....

In other words it’s nonsense but hey a good little narrative none the less.

I actually saw a quote from a fund manager that said anyone trading the pound just now is facing a moment of maximum danger as it could whipsaw any which way. That’s not fertile ground for any speculator to make fortunes without risking a hell of a lot at the same time.

[lapsedhibee]

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Last week it was they were making millions shorting the pound, this week it’s making millions long on the pound and RBS....

In other words it’s nonsense but hey a good little narrative none the less.

I actually saw a quote from a fund manager that said anyone trading the pound just now is facing a moment of maximum danger as it could whipsaw any which way. That’s not fertile ground for any speculator to make fortunes without risking a hell of a lot at the same time.

On the contrary, it's extremely fertile ground for anyone who knows even a tiny amount, a tiny bit in advance, of the herd.

[Future17]

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Last week it was they were making millions shorting the pound, this week it’s making millions long on the pound and RBS....

In other words it’s nonsense but hey a good little narrative none the less.

I actually saw a quote from a fund manager that said anyone trading the pound just now is facing a moment of maximum danger as it could whipsaw any which way. That’s not fertile ground for any speculator to make fortunes without risking a hell of a lot at the same time.

It probably is nonsense, but the original point wasn't about speculators; it was about knowing something was going to happen before it did.

[RyeSloan]

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It probably is nonsense, but the original point wasn't about speculators; it was about knowing something was going to happen before it did.

So basically we are saying Boris is regularly partaking in insider dealing and market manipulation to get his buddies rich?

While at the same time being able to predict the utterances of the EU to what ever he says, how those will be interpreted, the market reaction to all of that and ultimately which way the pound is going to react.

Then of course all of these pals getting this early heads up have to position themselves on the correct side of the trade at the correct time to make sure they don’t lose what they have already won.

Anything is always possible I suppose...

[lapsedhibee]

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So basically we are saying Boris is regularly partaking in insider dealing and market manipulation to get his buddies rich?

While at the same time being able to predict the utterances of the EU to what ever he says, how those will be interpreted, the market reaction to all of that and ultimately which way the pound is going to react.

Then of course all of these pals getting this early heads up have to position themselves on the correct side of the trade at the correct time to make sure they don’t lose what they have already won.

Anything is always possible I suppose...

It's not the rocket surgery you're making it out to be. When a deal looks likely, the pound goes up. When it looks unlikely, the pound goes down. You talk as if the very idea of Downing St manipulating the news shocks you.

[Moulin Yarns]

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It's not the rocket surgery you're making it out to be. When a deal looks likely, the pound goes up. When it looks unlikely, the pound goes down. You talk as if the very idea of Downing St manipulating the news shocks you.

I think he just wants to keep among his closest friends, not let us riff-raff in on the deal. 😉

[RyeSloan]

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It's not the rocket surgery you're making it out to be. When a deal looks likely, the pound goes up. When it looks unlikely, the pound goes down. You talk as if the very idea of Downing St manipulating the news shocks you.

Yeah sure currency trading is a child’s game, of course it is. I mean why are we not all doing it considering it’s so straight forward!

The fact is it’s easy only in hindsight. You have to have your bets placed before hand...that’s the point is it not? Boris letting his pals in ahead of the game?

Ergo you are suggesting Boris knows what’s going to happen and is insider trading his pals to make then rich. If that’s not what you are saying then what are you saying?

[Jack]

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Yeah sure currency trading is a child’s game, of course it is. I mean why are we not all doing it considering it’s so straight forward!

The fact is it’s easy only in hindsight. You have to have your bets placed before hand...that’s the point is it not? Boris letting his pals in ahead of the game?

Ergo you are suggesting Boris knows what’s going to happen and is insider trading his pals to make then rich. If that’s not what you are saying then what are you saying?

If I got the heads up what was likely to happen it makes it a damn sight less of a gamble.

[Hibbyradge]

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Yeah sure currency trading is a child’s game, of course it is. I mean why are we not all doing it considering it’s so straight forward!

The fact is it’s easy only in hindsight. You have to have your bets placed before hand...that’s the point is it not? Boris letting his pals in ahead of the game?

Ergo you are suggesting Boris knows what’s going to happen and is insider trading his pals to make then rich. If that’s not what you are saying then what are you saying?

How do you think inside trading happens?

I'm not saying that there has been any in this instance, but it really wouldn't be difficult.

Boris Johnson has been talking to the EU. He knows what they need in order to take negotiations to the next level.

He tells persons unknown that he's going to concede to that demand.

The pound will strengthen once the news becomes public.

Said persons sell their Euros or do whatever they need to do to make money.

[lapsedhibee]

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Yeah sure currency trading is a child’s game, of course it is. I mean why are we not all doing it considering it’s so straight forward!

The fact is it’s easy only in hindsight. You have to have your bets placed before hand...that’s the point is it not? Boris letting his pals in ahead of the game?

Ergo you are suggesting Boris knows what’s going to happen and is insider trading his pals to make then rich. If that’s not what you are saying then what are you saying?

Johnson surmising that the game's nearly up for him (as there's no possible way to keep nutjobs like Francois and Foster happy as well as sane, rational people like Barnier) why wouldn't he take the opportunity to make a few million on his way out? That's a not unreasonable way to explain him going from 'Here's the deal, take it or leave it EU' to convincing Varadkar he'd be happy to scrap its main features, without telling any of the cabinet, 48 hours later. That's what Trump would do if he was bright enough to recognise that the game was up for him, and Johnson's Britain Trump, but (much) brighter.

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If I got the heads up what was likely to happen it makes it a damn sight less of a gamble.

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How do you think inside trading happens?

I'm not saying that there has been any in this instance, but it really wouldn't be difficult.

Boris Johnson has been talking to the EU. He knows what they need in order to take negotiations to the next level.

He tells persons unknown that he's going to concede to that demand.

The pound will strengthen once the news becomes public.

Said persons sell their Euros or do whatever they need to do to make money.

These.

[Moulin Yarns]

Well, that was fun. I've just experienced the Brexit future, sitting happily reading when the power failed! Not just me but it turns out that 8,000 properties were affected. An hour and a half before it was restored, thankfully it was light enough at the beginning to run round and get all the candles ready. So much for the pizza!! Crisps and some thrown together dips and juice for supper.

[CloudSquall]

Who said the Germans didn't have any humour?

https://twitter.com/BluesWolff/statu...26192976732166

[Callum_62]

Do Labour ever discuss what they actually stand for?

Always contradict each other in public

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[Colr]

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Do Labour ever discuss what they actually stand for?

Always contradict each other in public

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Corbyn’s spent his life contradicting the party line but someone should explain that he should stop that when he is in charge (supposedly)

[Ozyhibby]

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[GlesgaeHibby]

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Another hung parliament?

[Bristolhibby]

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I never see what these percentages mean in actual seats. As that’s all that matters.

SNP with 50 odd seats never feature in these polls.

And Brexit, even with those percentages would unlikely get any seats.

J

[Ozyhibby]

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I never see what these percentages mean in actual seats. As that’s all that matters.

SNP with 50 odd seats never feature in these polls.

And Brexit, even with those percentages would unlikely get any seats.

J

Agree, they just give a snap shot of the direction of travel. This GE will likely have a massive amount of tactical voting so there will be surprise results all over.


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[mjhibby]

This will be the hardest election ever to predict. The one thing these polls don't reflect is that the polls on staying or leaving are averaging 53-47 for staying and the thousands of extra remain votes could we'll swing a lot of marginals against the Tories. Noticeably we haven't had anything from Cummings in the last few days. I wonder if he has been muzzled. Even the telegraph not confident of a Tory win even if a deal is done. All depends how much Johnson has caved in. Farage will destroy Johnson in an election if it's staying in all but name. Can't stand our Nigel but just do your stuff during the election then just bugger off after that

[Kato]

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So basically we are saying Boris is regularly partaking in insider dealing and market manipulation to get his buddies rich?

While at the same time being able to predict the utterances of the EU to what ever he says, how those will be interpreted, the market reaction to all of that and ultimately which way the pound is going to react.

Then of course all of these pals getting this early heads up have to position themselves on the correct side of the trade at the correct time to make sure they don’t lose what they have already won.

Anything is always possible I suppose...

Crispin Odey's firm, a sponsor of Johnson and a well known hedge funder who has already cashed in twice through Brexit related fluctuations in the pound, has a £300M bet on the pound crashing after 31st October.

That's just one.

It's not a case of "anything is possible", it's happening right in front of your eyes with all the details available.

[mjhibby]

Linton Cosby said in the Tories at war programme well just have to take the pain to get the Tories back in power. They aren't hiding their actions at all. The Tory party is there to serve vested interests and they are being manipulated in clear sight. Nothing possible about it. The whole nonsense of Johnson has been planned ever since Cameron stood down. It will all come out in the wash

[mjhibby]

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Johnson surmising that the game's nearly up for him (as there's no possible way to keep nutjobs like Francois and Foster happy as well as sane, rational people like Barnier) why wouldn't he take the opportunity to make a few million on his way out? That's a not unreasonable way to explain him going from 'Here's the deal, take it or leave it EU' to convincing Varadkar he'd be happy to scrap its main features, without telling any of the cabinet, 48 hours later. That's what Trump would do if he was bright enough to recognise that the game was up for him, and Johnson's Britain Trump, but (much) brighter.





These.

Very suspicious of whether Johnson is conceding much at all. Could well be as you have said and he'll go into the election saying I tried my hardest. Very unusual how nothing has been leaked. Could it be there is nothing to leak and it's all just a charade to say they are all trying to get a deal. Hard to believe they can sort a deal in a few days when they haven't been able too in over three years. Sounds we are going to get one gigantic fudge.

[lapsedhibee]

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the polls on staying or leaving are averaging 53-47 for staying

Particularly pointless exercises, those, since as any fule no the true will of the people can only be established in a leap year.

[RyeSloan]

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Crispin Odey's firm, a sponsor of Johnson and a well known hedge funder who has already cashed in twice through Brexit related fluctuations in the pound, has a £300M bet on the pound crashing after 31st October.

That's just one.

It's not a case of "anything is possible", it's happening right in front of your eyes with all the details available.

Well if it doesn’t crash then he’s gonna lose a lot of dough.

Are we saying that Boris has already worked out what’s gonna happen between now and then, how the EU will react and how the Benn bill will play out in terms of the value of the pound on 1st November and tipped off Odey?

[Cataplana]

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Well if it doesn’t crash then he’s gonna lose a lot of dough.

Are we saying that Boris has already worked out what’s gonna happen between now and then, how the EU will react and how the Benn bill will play out in terms of the value of the pound on 1st November and tipped off Odey?

Its a bit like saying Hibs won't win the league this year. You just know.

[RyeSloan]

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Its a bit like saying Hibs won't win the league this year. You just know.

Well his bet is going the wrong way just now then...pound has been strengthening substantially against the dollar and the euro the last few weeks...Boris better hope Odey can cover the margin calls on his £300m.