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  1. #481
    Private Members Prediction League Winner Hibrandenburg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ozyhibby View Post
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    In the current political climate it will win him many votes in England. He's not as daft as he looks.


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  3. #482
    Quote Originally Posted by Hibrandenburg View Post
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    In the current political climate it will win him many votes in England. He's not as daft as he looks.
    The big winners of this policy are rich, English pensioners. Coincidentally (I'm sure) the exact demographic of the largest part of the Tory party membership he wants to elect him.

  4. #483
    @hibs.net private member Smartie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ozyhibby View Post
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    He’s Teflon though. He’s like Trump, nothing seems to put off his core support down south.


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    It will be interesting to see what effect sticking the knife into his core support up here will have though.

  5. #484
    10 got enough support to stand:

    • Michael Gove
    • Matt Hancock
    • Mark Harper
    • Jeremy Hunt
    • Sajid Javid
    • Boris Johnson
    • Andrea Leadsom
    • Esther McVey
    • Dominic Raab
    • Rory Stewart

    First round of MP votes on Thursday.

  6. #485
    @hibs.net private member cabbageandribs1875's Avatar
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    7/10..Boris Johnson
    4/1... jeremy hunt
    9/1....Andrea Leadsom
    16/1..Gove
    20/1...sajid javid
    25/1.. Dominic Raab
    33/1.. Rory Stewart
    40/1...jeremy corbyn...gies a break
    66/1...Farage
    100/1..matthew hancock
    125/1..David Liddington
    150/1..philip hammond
    150/1..mark harper
    200/1..Esther Mcvey....nae chance
    200/1..jo swinson...stop it

  7. #486
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ozyhibby View Post
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    Bet Ruth says nowt.


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    This'll be the union dividend they keep talking about.

    Ingsh will be lapping it up using his broad shoulders to doff cap and pay up.

  8. #487
    @hibs.net private member lapsedhibee's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sylar View Post
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    I wouldn't object to Rory Stewart or Sam Gyimah (he did a lot of good as Universities' minister), but neither will get through the first round of voting.
    Tory leadership contests have a tradition of not going according to plan, so there's a smidgeon of hope that Stewart might get further than expected ...

  9. #488
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    Quote Originally Posted by lapsedhibee View Post
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    Tory leadership contests have a tradition of not going according to plan, so there's a smidgeon of hope that Stewart might get further than expected ...
    Can only see Boris getting it. Newsnight says he has 64 voted compared to Gove and ****** who both have 34. If he goes to the last two the wider party will vote him in no bother.

  10. #489
    @hibs.net private member lapsedhibee's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by stokesmessiah View Post
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    Can only see Boris getting it. Newsnight says he has 64 voted compared to Gove and ****** who both have 34. If he goes to the last two the wider party will vote him in no bother.
    BoJoke may be nobody's second choice, though, and when others drop out their supporters might not at all split in his favour. There's 313 Tory MPs, so 64 isn't a scary number.

    Mon the minnows!
    Last edited by lapsedhibee; 10-06-2019 at 10:08 PM.

  11. #490
    Resident contrarian SHODAN's Avatar
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    I can see the Tory MPs forcing Boris out and putting Gove & Hunt to the members.

  12. #491
    @hibs.net private member Ozyhibby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by lapsedhibee View Post
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    BoJoke may be nobody's second choice, though, and when others drop out their supporters might not at all split in his favour. There's 313 Tory MPs, so 64 isn't a scary number.

    Mon the minnows!
    Problem is that backers of Raab, McVey etc are going to switch to Boris when they get knocked out.


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  13. #492
    @hibs.net private member lapsedhibee's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Diclonius View Post
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    I can see the Tory MPs forcing Boris out and putting Gove & Hunt to the members.
    What, and frustrate the will of the party? Wouldn't that be a betrayal of democracy etc but also, more importantly, ******* hilarious? I would quite literally laugh my knee off.

  14. #493
    @hibs.net private member Mibbes Aye's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Diclonius View Post
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    I can see the Tory MPs forcing Boris out and putting Gove & Hunt to the members.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ozyhibby View Post
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    Problem is that backers of Raab, McVey etc are going to switch to Boris when they get knocked out.


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    Quote Originally Posted by lapsedhibee View Post
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    What, and frustrate the will of the party? Wouldn't that be a betrayal of democracy etc but also, more importantly, ******* hilarious? I would quite literally laugh my knee off.
    There was an interesting article a couple of weeks or so ago, in the Guardian or the Telegraph, probably the latter (sorry, can’t recall) which challenged the orthodoxy and argued that the Tory leadership race could end up with a final two who were centrists, relatively speaking. By centrists they meant the likes of Hunt, which I found challenging as a start

    Part of the argument was that while Boris has a healthy lead amongst Tory party members, there is a residual fear that he is too divisive or reckless to command the all-important majority, come the GE. While the shires lap up his rhetoric, as the final vote grows closer the nervousness increases about whether he will blow it later on, Boris-style, and deny the Conservatives what they perceive as their natural place in government.

    This feeds into what local Conservative Associations tell their MPs and emboldens the MPs to back alternatives.

    I’m not fully convinced - he genuinely is very popular amongst the party membership and if he makes it to the final two it would be a coronation I guess. By the same token, I could easily imagine Stewart having a good run before running out of votes, then switching his caucus to Matt Hancock perhaps, with us ending up with a Hancock-Hunt play-off.

    I think a lot depends on how Gove and Hunt do. As the field is whittled down, a lot of votes will be reallocated. I suspect Hunt is the more likely to garner these than Gove but the latter didn’t hurt himself by taking the fight to Boris today. Gove v Hunt is definitely in play.

    For those of us who are interested in politics for politics’ sake, it is fascinating. Unfortunately it is scary that this exercise has the potential for such damaging consequences.
    There's only one thing better than a Hibs calendar and that's two Hibs calendars

  15. #494
    @hibs.net private member Bostonhibby's Avatar
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    What scares me is very few of us will have a say in who our next undemocratically elected minority leader will be.

    Instead it's being left to folk who are probably more at home judging the most interesting shaped vegetable contest at the village fete.

    They probably think all the candidates are young whippersnappers and they'd like someone more representative of their group, Anthony Eden or Harold Macmillan would probably win hands down if someone managed to sneak their name onto the ballot papers, Fluffy the cat would have a chance on the same basis.

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  16. #495
    @hibs.net private member Ozyhibby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mibbes Aye View Post
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    There was an interesting article a couple of weeks or so ago, in the Guardian or the Telegraph, probably the latter (sorry, can’t recall) which challenged the orthodoxy and argued that the Tory leadership race could end up with a final two who were centrists, relatively speaking. By centrists they meant the likes of Hunt, which I found challenging as a start

    Part of the argument was that while Boris has a healthy lead amongst Tory party members, there is a residual fear that he is too divisive or reckless to command the all-important majority, come the GE. While the shires lap up his rhetoric, as the final vote grows closer the nervousness increases about whether he will blow it later on, Boris-style, and deny the Conservatives what they perceive as their natural place in government.

    This feeds into what local Conservative Associations tell their MPs and emboldens the MPs to back alternatives.

    I’m not fully convinced - he genuinely is very popular amongst the party membership and if he makes it to the final two it would be a coronation I guess. By the same token, I could easily imagine Stewart having a good run before running out of votes, then switching his caucus to Matt Hancock perhaps, with us ending up with a Hancock-Hunt play-off.

    I think a lot depends on how Gove and Hunt do. As the field is whittled down, a lot of votes will be reallocated. I suspect Hunt is the more likely to garner these than Gove but the latter didn’t hurt himself by taking the fight to Boris today. Gove v Hunt is definitely in play.

    For those of us who are interested in politics for politics’ sake, it is fascinating. Unfortunately it is scary that this exercise has the potential for such damaging consequences.
    You would need 2/3 of Tory mp’s to vote for those two in an even split to beat Boris. I can’t see it happening unless Boris does something stupid. And he appears to have enough self awareness to know that’s possible so he is staying away from campaigning as much as possible.


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  17. #496
    @hibs.net private member lapsedhibee's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ozyhibby View Post
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    You would need 2/3 of Tory mp’s to vote for those two in an even split to beat Boris. I can’t see it happening unless Boris does something stupid. And he appears to have enough self awareness to know that’s possible so he is staying away from campaigning as much as possible.
    Or some past stupidity gets a relentless spotlight put on it. Is that Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe still in jail in Iran for spying?

  18. #497
    @hibs.net private member Bostonhibby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by lapsedhibee View Post
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    Or some past stupidity gets a relentless spotlight put on it. Is that Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe still in jail in Iran for spying?
    https://www.change.org/p/free-nazani...te&utm_term=cs

    Still there, Boris has put some clear blue water between himself and that indiscretion by the looks of it.

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  19. #498
    @hibs.net private member
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mibbes Aye View Post
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    There was an interesting article a couple of weeks or so ago, in the Guardian or the Telegraph, probably the latter (sorry, can’t recall) which challenged the orthodoxy and argued that the Tory leadership race could end up with a final two who were centrists, relatively speaking. By centrists they meant the likes of Hunt, which I found challenging as a start

    Part of the argument was that while Boris has a healthy lead amongst Tory party members, there is a residual fear that he is too divisive or reckless to command the all-important majority, come the GE. While the shires lap up his rhetoric, as the final vote grows closer the nervousness increases about whether he will blow it later on, Boris-style, and deny the Conservatives what they perceive as their natural place in government.

    This feeds into what local Conservative Associations tell their MPs and emboldens the MPs to back alternatives.

    I’m not fully convinced - he genuinely is very popular amongst the party membership and if he makes it to the final two it would be a coronation I guess. By the same token, I could easily imagine Stewart having a good run before running out of votes, then switching his caucus to Matt Hancock perhaps, with us ending up with a Hancock-Hunt play-off.

    I think a lot depends on how Gove and Hunt do. As the field is whittled down, a lot of votes will be reallocated. I suspect Hunt is the more likely to garner these than Gove but the latter didn’t hurt himself by taking the fight to Boris today. Gove v Hunt is definitely in play.

    For those of us who are interested in politics for politics’ sake, it is fascinating. Unfortunately it is scary that this exercise has the potential for such damaging consequences.
    I can't see the tories putting Hunt in. He is just such an unpopular character after the "job" he done with the NHS. I don't think he is electable in a GE.

  20. #499
    Left by mutual consent! Fife-Hibee's Avatar
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    Just how depressing do things have to get until enough people in Scotland have had enough?

  21. #500
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fife-Hibee View Post
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    Just how depressing do things have to get until enough people in Scotland have had enough?
    I guess the next few months will tell us where we are at ?

  22. #501
    Left by mutual consent! Fife-Hibee's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by stokesmessiah View Post
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    I guess the next few months will tell us where we are at ?
    Because the past several years haven't told us enough apparently.

  23. #502
    @hibs.net private member Moulin Yarns's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fife-Hibee View Post
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    Just how depressing do things have to get until enough people in Scotland have had enough?
    Here's hoping for this one to be telling the truth.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-48596991
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  24. #503
    Quote Originally Posted by Fife-Hibee View Post
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    Just how depressing do things have to get until enough people in Scotland have had enough?
    Do people actually get depressed about politics ?

    A friend wants to know

  25. #504
    Private Members Prediction League Winner Hibrandenburg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by makaveli1875 View Post
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    Do people actually get depressed about politics ?

    A friend wants to know
    I have a friend who had to fight several months to get his disability allowance continued. He's pretty depressed.

  26. #505
    @hibs.net private member Hibernia&Alba's Avatar
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    Boris Johnson as prime minister would be proof positive that accident of birth is still incredibly significant in Britain. Here is someone who believed from childhood that he would be prime minister; that he was born to it and it's his right. Imagine growing up being so secure of your place in the world, confident that, like so many Old Etonians, you are born to rule. What an embarrassment to this country, which totally undermines the lip service politicians pay to a supposed meritocracy and equality of opportunity. Our society remains medieval in so many ways, as the luck of draw continues to determine one's destiny. As a Conservative Johnson wishes to conserve this state of affairs. I despise him and the values he represents.
    HIBERNIAN FC - ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF HISTORY SINCE 1875

  27. #506
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    So if Boris gets his tax cut it means higher public spending in Scotland. Now hands up those who were fooled by the SNPs false claims that Scottish people would be funding it.

    https://twitter.com/petermacmahon/st...689303558?s=19

    https://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/14169

    We hate it when parties don't tell us the truth don't we? I mean that includes all parties, doesn't it?

  28. #507
    @hibs.net private member Hibernia&Alba's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by James310 View Post
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    So if Boris gets his tax cut it means higher public spending in Scotland. Now hands up those who were fooled by the SNPs false claims that Scottish people would be funding it.

    https://twitter.com/petermacmahon/st...689303558?s=19

    https://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/14169

    We hate it when parties don't tell us the truth don't we? I mean that includes all parties, doesn't it?
    Tax cuts means higher public spending? So we're back to Laffer Curves and 'growing the cake' are we? Follow that to its logical conclusion: what happens to public spending if all taxes are cut to zero?
    HIBERNIAN FC - ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF HISTORY SINCE 1875

  29. #508
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hibernia&Alba View Post
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    Tax cuts means higher public spending? So we're back to Laffer Curves and 'growing the cake' are we? Follow that to its logical conclusion: what happens to public spending if all taxes are cut to zero?
    Who said anything about zero?

    Just making the small point that sometimes what you are told by the SNP and what is splashed across the papers is not all it seems. I am sure if I never pointed this out quite a few would have never have known the truth. Happy to help.

  30. #509
    Quote Originally Posted by James310 View Post
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    Who said anything about zero?

    Just making the small point that sometimes what you are told by the SNP and what is splashed across the papers is not all it seems. I am sure if I never pointed this out quite a few would have never have known the truth. Happy to help.
    Maybe we need an SNP are lying *******s thread.

  31. #510
    @hibs.net private member Hibernia&Alba's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by James310 View Post
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    Who said anything about zero?

    Just making the small point that sometimes what you are told by the SNP and what is splashed across the papers is not all it seems. I am sure if I never pointed this out quite a few would have never have known the truth. Happy to help.
    I've always found the idea of lower taxes meaning more revenue amusing and Orwellian. Even Professor Laffer himself conceded that his idea related only to the tiny few at the very top of the income scale, not the mass of the population. It was/is a self-serving fantasy, which I'm sure Boris Johnson still believes the majority are stupid enough to accept as verisimilitude.
    Last edited by Hibernia&Alba; 11-06-2019 at 07:46 PM.
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