Scottish Independence

[RyeSloan]

I think it's safe to assume a divorce costs both sides money...quite how much this one would cost is anybody's guess.

All the talk of 10% of this and 10% of that seems fanciful...let's be honest the UK Government doesn't really have a balance sheet like a private company does nor any real idea of its assets and liabilities (part of the bonus of being a government, you can get away with shoddy accounting) so gawd only knows where such negotiations would begin!

[over the line]

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Seriously? With an immediate 10% increase in its national debt?

Well obviously an instant debt increase of 10% for rUK wouldn't be desirable, but with the way the national debt has ballooned over recent years, I don't think it would be an overly huge shock to the system. Where as imagine the rUK withdrawing all its facilities, and mechanisms for running a country: inland revenue, MOD, HM Customs, highways agency, DVLA etc. My hypothetical scenario was that at 8 am tomorrow, the wall went up and both countries were on their own. I think rUK would cope better, under those circumstances don't you?

But on a more realistic point, an iS would not be able to replace all the governmental mechanisms that the UK currently offers it, within an 18 month period. I think its accepted by both sides that an iS would still be reliant on rUK for certain facilities and governmental mechanisms, for several years and in some cases longer. There is just too much to do for it all to be done in 18 months realistically. So rUK will use these vital services and facilities as a powerful bargaining chip IMHO.

[over the line]

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You ignored or missed my post. There is no "in time". The SNP haven't put a time limit on it.

I thought Alex Salmond gave an estimated date on the TV debate the other day? But they will obviously have to set out a realistic timetable won't they, because what is the alternative?

[over the line]

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I think it's safe to assume a divorce costs both sides money...quite how much this one would cost is anybody's guess.

All the talk of 10% of this and 10% of that seems fanciful...let's be honest the UK Government doesn't really have a balance sheet like a private company does nor any real idea of its assets and liabilities (part of the bonus of being a government, you can get away with shoddy accounting) so gawd only knows where such negotiations would begin!

I agree. What is 10% of everything and what is 'everything' anyway and how do you break off 10% of it?

[over the line]

.

[Moulin Yarns]

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And that seems reasonable. If they are to be moved from an iS, then they almost certainly will be. It will take what ever length it takes, as I can't imagine an iS telling them to do a rush job with nuclear weapons etc. So it sounds like this deal is partially done already and its not something that can be done lightly, or messed about with anyway. So that is my point really, how is it an ace card for negotiating with?

Would anybody like to explain what use the UK WMD is?

http://www.ploughshares.org/world-nu...FabLtAodbBwANA

When would our 225 warheads be used? Who is the threat? Who is it aimed at deterring.

we have got 2% of the USA warheads, so really, why?

Remember the other name for WMD is MAD, Mutually Assured Destruction.

You fire yours and I'll fire mine, which is why they should be dismantled, like Canada did to theirs. Canada thought, what is the point, Russia has them and the USA has them, if either use them we are right in the middle so are f ucked regardless. Why do you think Netherlands or Denmark don't have them? There is no point for the same reason, with Russia and France and us all having them so if it kicked off they would be obliterated.

[over the line]

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Would anybody like to explain what use the UK WMD is?

http://www.ploughshares.org/world-nu...FabLtAodbBwANA

When would our 225 warheads be used? Who is the threat? Who is it aimed at deterring.

we have got 2% of the USA warheads, so really, why?

Remember the other name for WMD is MAD, Mutually Assured Destruction.

You fire yours and I'll fire mine, which is why they should be dismantled, like Canada did to theirs. Canada thought, what is the point, Russia has them and the USA has them, if either use them we are right in the middle so are f ucked regardless. Why do you think Netherlands or Denmark don't have them? There is no point for the same reason, with Russia and France and us all having them so if it kicked off they would be obliterated.

Well this is a completely different point to the one I was making. But a valid and interesting one none the less. The UK or rUK will be keeping nuclear weapons it would seem. It's just a question of where they will be kept isn't it? As you know I am more than happy to have them right here in Ellesmere Port :)

I personally would rather the UK had nuclear weapons as a deterrent and never had to use them, as opposed to not having them and relying totally on the US for protection. I can see the argument for not having them, I just don't agree with it myself.

[ronaldo7]

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Yes fair enough but my point still stands, what would an iS realistically do if the nukes weren't removed in time? That's not a confrontational question, I'm just curious to know?

If an iS does want the nukes removing, I'm sure a realistic timetable would be agreed, as I don't really see that there is any alternative for either party really? I don't see it as that much of a bargaining chip really.

Their's more than one way to skin a cat.

Do you remember the cod wars with Iceland?

The Royal Navy were rammed by Iceland fishing trawlers/patrol vessels, who were wanting an extension to their fishing waters.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cod_Wars


You know that the Trident subs patrol for 12 weeks and then come back into faslane (HMS Neptune) again with the help of the local Pilot to guide them up the gare loch. Whose to say the entrance to the waters leading to Faslane could not be blocked or the Pilot's might be at home, rendering the Sub with no access to the port.

A wee trip doon to Devonport for the grumpy matelots, but the wives would be the ones to avoid at all costs

[over the line]

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Their's more than one way to skin a cat.

Do you remember the cod wars with Iceland?

The Royal Navy were rammed by Iceland fishing trawlers/patrol vessels, who were wanting an extension to their fishing waters.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cod_Wars


You know that the Trident subs patrol for 12 weeks and then come back into faslane (HMS Neptune) again with the help of the local Pilot to guide them up the gare loch. Whose to say the entrance to the waters leading to Faslane could not be blocked or the Pilot's might be at home, rendering the Sub with no access to the port.

A wee trip doon to Devonport for the grumpy matelots, but the wives would be the ones to avoid at all costs

Would certainly make for some interesting news stories anyway! :)

[ronaldo7]

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Would certainly make for some interesting news stories anyway! :)

It won't need to happen mate. There will be normal discussions from both Governments when we vote YES.

[Moulin Yarns]

This is interesting, or annoying, depending on your point of view

http://scienceofindependence.wordpre...paign-predict/

[over the line]

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It won't need to happen mate. There will be normal discussions from both Governments when we vote YES.

I totally agree with the normal discussion bit in the event of a Yes. As for the 'when we vote Yes', we will have to wait and see. :)

[Moulin Yarns]

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I think it's safe to assume a divorce costs both sides money...quite how much this one would cost is anybody's guess.

All the talk of 10% of this and 10% of that seems fanciful...let's be honest the UK Government doesn't really have a balance sheet like a private company does nor any real idea of its assets and liabilities (part of the bonus of being a government, you can get away with shoddy accounting) so gawd only knows where such negotiations would begin!

We keep comparing it to a divorce, I would rather think of it as the slightly troublesome child thinking about leaving home. They know they will have to learn to stand on their own two feet, get their own bank account, maybe a mortgage, and court some girls to find the best partner (miss Norway is always popular ) and at the same time they will need to keep in with Mum and Dad (England) and remember to be kind to little brother and sister (wales and NI) The bit that sort of suspends reality is where Mum and Dad don't want to let troublesome child go. Maybe it is the £53bn pay check that he brings to the family home.

[over the line]

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This is interesting, or annoying, depending on your point of view

http://scienceofindependence.wordpre...paign-predict/

I found it a little bit interesting and a little bit annoying.
:)

[over the line]

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We keep comparing it to a divorce, I would rather think of it as the slightly troublesome child thinking about leaving home. They know they will have to learn to stand on their own two feet, get their own bank account, maybe a mortgage, and court some girls to find the best partner (miss Norway is always popular ) and at the same time they will need to keep in with Mum and Dad (England) and remember to be kind to little brother and sister (wales and NI) The bit that sort of suspends reality is where Mum and Dad don't want to let troublesome child go. Maybe it is the £53bn pay check that he brings to the family home.

I quite like the happy family picture you have painted there. Much nicer than the divorce analogies. :D I think this one could be a runner.............

[sauzee_4]

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To be blunt, that's mince (and the type of misinformation that's common in the debate). The B of E has an obligation to consider all parts of the UK when setting interest rates. If that wasn't the case, they'd have raised them by now.

Post-independence, the B of E will still set rates for the UK. They just won't give a second thought to Scotland any longer.

Unless there's a currency union?

[Just Alf]

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If an iS really wouldn't have any legal obligation to pay the debt, why is it even considering paying it? If the set up is as you suggest, its a bit like me moving house and before I leave the street I pay 10% of my neighbours mortgage for him. Why would I?

There's no "if" .... The UK Gov came out earlier this year and announced that they had the sole legal obligation to pay off the debt. As per an earlier post (CWG?) the reasoning is that ...
A) rUK take ownership of the debt and become the successor state, meaning treaties, NATO membership, EU etc all remain as is, the new iScotland would need to negotiate it all.

Or

B) both rUK and iScot have legal ownership meaning that the UK is disbanded and we now have 2 successor states both who would have to renegotiate all those treaties.


The reason (I'm surmising) that iScot is willing to support the ongoing payments is to ensure they get ownership of some of the assets?

PS I also agree the family scenario sounds better than the divorce one!

[steakbake]

Yeah, the divorce thing is bogus. It's funny how we imagine ourselves as equal partners in that relationship... it's not how our partner generally views it.

[Beefster]

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Yeah, the divorce thing is bogus. It's funny how we imagine ourselves as equal partners in that relationship... it's not how our partner generally views it.

The rest of the UK doesn't view Scotland as an equal partner in the UK?

[Moulin Yarns]

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The rest of the UK doesn't view Scotland as an equal partner in the UK?

It certainly wont if this comes true

What a shame, Labour "fears" that they might come to Scotland

http://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.co...ears-1-3523234


Being a tax haven hasn’t exactly hurt Monaco, Bermuda, Cayman Islands, Bahamas, OH AYE and PANAMA

[CropleyWasGod]

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It certainly wont if this comes true

What a shame, Labour "fears" that they might come to Scotland

http://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.co...ears-1-3523234


Being a tax haven hasn’t exactly hurt Monaco, Bermuda, Cayman Islands, Bahamas, OH AYE and PANAMA

Personally, I don't think the SNP would follow through on the 3p cut, at least not in the short term.

However, if they do, and those companies decide to base themselves here, that has to be a good thing. The tax revenue lost by a 3p cut..... vs 17% of Google's profits.

[Fergus52]

Anyone else see the results of the RIC mass canvass?

Looks pretty promising for yes considering that the sample was way larger than any poll, albeit targetting working class areas.

Apologies if this has already been osted in the thread, just been on holiday for a week with limited .net access.

http://radicalindependence.org/2014/...mple-released/

[Hibrandenburg]

Tory MP Douglas Carswell has defected to UKIP, is this the start of a trend and does it increase the likelihood of the next UK government leaving the EU.

UKIP might not win the next election but they'll certainly have an influence on centre right policy.

[Hibrandenburg]

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Anyone else see the results of the RIC mass canvass?

Looks pretty promising for yes considering that the sample was way larger than any poll, albeit targetting working class areas.

Apologies if this has already been osted in the thread, just been on holiday for a week with limited .net access.

http://radicalindependence.org/2014/...mple-released/

That certainly mirrors what I'm seeing!

[marinello59]

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The rest of the UK doesn't view Scotland as an equal partner in the UK?

I'm not so sure that the Greater London Authority sees the rest of the UK as an equal partner, let alone Scotland.

[JeMeSouviens]

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Anyone else see the results of the RIC mass canvass?

Looks pretty promising for yes considering that the sample was way larger than any poll, albeit targetting working class areas.

Apologies if this has already been osted in the thread, just been on holiday for a week with limited .net access.

http://radicalindependence.org/2014/...mple-released/

It's an interesting straw in the wind, but when it comes to polling, bigger isn't better unless it's demographically accurate. This being the classic example:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Lit...sidential_poll

[Moulin Yarns]

A wee reminder of what is at stake in 3 weeks time.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wqGF...=RDgApwpSWAhbQ

[JimBHibees]

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A wee reminder of what is at stake in 3 weeks time.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wqGF...=RDgApwpSWAhbQ

Tremendous and says it all IMO. The magnitude of this decision is massive and IMO it is the time to seize it.

What was the song that was being sung?

[Hibrandenburg]

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A wee reminder of what is at stake in 3 weeks time.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wqGF...=RDgApwpSWAhbQ

That's an excellent wee film. Even if the politics doesn't interest you there's some breathtaking footage in there. Thanks.

[Just Alf]

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A wee reminder of what is at stake in 3 weeks time.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wqGF...=RDgApwpSWAhbQ

"A pound spent in Croydon is far more value to the Country than a pound spent in Strathclyde" - Boris Johnson .... maybe a future UK PM!

God help us