:rolleyes:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/06/13/oil-tankers-hit-fresh-attack-gulf-oman/amp/
:rolleyes:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/06/13/oil-tankers-hit-fresh-attack-gulf-oman/amp/
US looking for a reason to target Iran.
Who would have predicted...
Go on give us the truth Fife , who really dunnit
Not who they're claiming did it. I know that much.Quote:
Originally Posted by makaveli1875
Who do you think did it?Quote:
Originally Posted by Fife-Hibee
Lemme guess - it was a false flag operation, where a stealth American vessel shot the two tankers using Iranian missiles that they covertly acquired?Quote:
Originally Posted by Fife-Hibee
What Iran have to gain from the act is a valid question - but let's be honest - you don't know ****.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fife-Hibee
Quote:
Originally Posted by makaveli1875
IMO Fife Hibee has a point here. The hawks in the Trump Administration are itching for a reason to target Iran.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sylar
The US blaming Iran for these attacks isn't a surprise and WMD is enough to remind anybody that they don't really give a toss if the intelligence is legitimate or not.
I agree. I’m not saying it’s a Hitler in Poland type scenario, but it suits the Americans to blame Iran.Quote:
Originally Posted by allmodcons
I’m surprised but relaxed that I might be agreeing with Fife Hibee here.Quote:
Originally Posted by allmodcons
The attacks are potentially Iran but Iran is far too sophisticated to be directly involved.
The attacks are potentially Iranian proxies like the Houthi rebels but that seems a bit far-stretched, and again, Iran are too sophisticated to allow that to happen.
Occam’s Razor and all that, with people like John Bolton kicking around then false flags are all too likely.
There is a SUBSTANTIAL difference between America looking for a reason to target Iran, and manufacturing one that could have cost the lives of hundreds of crewmen aboard the two vessels.
The Houthi rebels claimed a drone strike just a month ago on a Saudi oil pipeline, and have stopped exports via other shipping routes in the past. Given the economic sanctions the US have placed on Iran lately, it's perfectly plausible Iran could be behind the attacks in a retaliatory capacity, as a tactic to highlight just how reliant Western energy markets are on the security of this particular strait (which accounts for c.20% of all shipped oil/natural gas globally). By creating supply insecurities in the region, Iran drive up global oil prices by creating a market chilled by fears of shortage of supply chain instability.
Part of the deal in the US imposing sanctions on Iranian oil exports was that Saudi Arabia and the UAE would continue high rates of production to maintain prices and supply - if the Iranian regime or their allies can impact that, they highlight the need for their own exports and security of the strait to provide safe passage and continuity of supply.
The Houthis attacked a number of tankers last year Bab al-Mandab strait, using a mixture of mine and missile tactics.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-ye...-idUKKCN1HA1SH
They have the motive, and they certainly have the means (including access to drones, which they've recently used in separate attacks against Saudi pipelines and Abha airport).
THAT an Iranian aligned group, retaliating against the economic sanctions imposed upon them and trying to drive oil market insecurity, carried out the attack is far more likely the Occam's Razor.
Fife Hibee may well be correct - but the assertion of knowledge is a nonsense. All any of us can do is speculate with the facts available, and as much as I despise the Trump administration, this narrative from the region is well treaded...
Stinks of the Gulf of Tonkin incidents that escalated US involvement in Vietnam to me.
I know nothingQuote:
Originally Posted by Fife-Hibee
But I wouldn’t believe anything this American administration told us. Worrying times.
Or perhaps the sanctions were designed to make it look like Iran had a motive.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sylar
Implement sanctions, orchestrate a false flag then claim they did it due to the sanctions.
UK backs US in Iran claims.
I'm shocked :-)
Whilst no one really knows the truth. You can't escape the fact that the US is spoiling for a fight.
It seems that way.Quote:
Originally Posted by stokesmessiah
Why would they be spoiling for a fight with Iran?
God knows.Quote:
Originally Posted by Smartie
To satisfy Trump's megalomaniac personality and garner him brownie points with Americans?
The same reason they did with Libya, Iraq and now Venezuela as well. They have a hit list of nations with high oil reserves who refuse to play ball.Quote:
Originally Posted by Smartie
To be fair the American arms lobby are itching for a war with anyone. The USA needs to fire those very expensive weapon systems at someone.Quote:
Originally Posted by Smartie
Oh and BTW Iran ain’t Iraq. They have a well armed massive, motivated military, mountainous terrain and Geo-Political clout (Russia).Quote:
Originally Posted by stokesmessiah
Let’s not go there.
Reading it was mines BTW.
J
Let's assume it was Iran or Houthi rebels. What would their reason be for doing this?
I don't know what this response is about at all !!!??Quote:
Originally Posted by Bristolhibby
I never once said Iran was Iraq, nor did I question what weapon was used yesterday. I simply said that the US was spoiling for a fight BTW !
Retaliation against economic sanctions imposed by the US and their allies, destabilisation of Western energy markets (by driving up oil prices, Iran can offer their own exports as a solution, requiring sanctions to be lifted) and a desire to control transit through the Strait of Hormuz into the Gulf...Quote:
Originally Posted by Glory Lurker
Again, the Iranian backed Houthis have done this before - they have history of carrying out attacks on shipping lanes in this region, they have previous attacking infrastructure (which they've claimed themselves), they have advanced weaponry in the form of drones, have personnel that are trained by, and are former Iranian naval officers, and they have the motivation. They've also been very active in that region in the past year, with an escalation in the past month.
Kind of where I am. Other US Administrations with possibly more integrity have had no issue with lying to further their goals so no great surprise.Quote:
Originally Posted by marinello59
My Tuppence worth.
Israel wants war with Iran and to Balkanize the Middle East and they want to use the USA to do it. It wouldn't matter if it was Trump, Republicans or Democrats in power the end game would be the same.
Top 9 oil harbouring nations on earth:
1 Venezuela 300,878 (We must "liberate" them)
2 Saudi Arabia 266,455 (Plays ball)
3 Canada 169,709 (Bordering nation)
4 Iran 158,400 (We must "liberate" them)
5 Iraq 142,503 (Already "liberated")
6 Kuwait 101,500 (Plays ball)
7 United Arab Emirates 97,800 (Plays ball)
8 Russia 80,000 (We'd "liberate" them if they weren't so big)
9 Libya 48,363 (Already "liberated")
It's just a coincidence though.
Thanks, Sylar. That's helpful. Your earlier post that I didn't read until just now, and which would have answered my question before I asked it, is even more helpful!Quote:
Originally Posted by Sylar
Iran is a massive strategic player in the region. It holds a huge amount of sway in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon.Quote:
Originally Posted by Smartie
It is Shia and therefore fundamentally at odds with the regime in the likes of Saudi, which the US are invested in.
It doesn’t like Israel, or rather Israel doesn’t like Iran, and Israel is the sandbox for US military tech after all.
Oh, and oil.
Also worth noting that the US and the U.K. have form, having orchestrated a coup to overthrow the democratically-elected government in Iran in 1953. The result was a puppet regime for nearly three decades that stoked and fuelled the Islamic revolution in 1979.
The coup is living memory for the older generation, and for most middle-aged adults their parents would have lived through it and told them about it.
While the rebels are capable I suspect that generally, they don’t do anything without permission from the Iranian hierarchy.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sylar
And I think the Iranian hierarchy are far too sophisticated to leave themselves open to recrimination by something so obvious.
You are right about speculation and I will add to it. Likeliest for me is Israeli involvement. They have history of attacks in Iran, let alone the straits, they have history of false flag operations, they have a massive interest in setting Iran up and they have the capability to carry out such operations.
Don't think they have any military bases there, they don't use the dollar for reporting (sure Libya did the same before things soured) and of course, oil.Quote:
Originally Posted by Smartie
Clicked quote rather than reply rather.Quote:
Originally Posted by stokesmessiah
Mine was a general point about not getting dragged into this cluster ****.
Not intended as a response to your post.
J
Yet US oil imports have dropped to a 30 year low with the majority of it met by Canada, Mexico and Columbia and their OPEC imports continue to drop substantially.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fife-Hibee
In other words Middle Eastern oil is now of much more importance to the Far East than it is to the US, hence why we saw Abe trying to soothe tensions this week.
The Sauds have a lot to gain from this. US destroys Iran and oil prices rise.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mibbes Aye
I had actually thought of posting this after my previously post, you are absolutely correct and there already is proxy conflict between Saudi and Iran in Yemen and in various other locations over the years.Quote:
Originally Posted by GreenLake
Surprised no one is blaming the SNP. :greengrinQuote:
Originally Posted by GreenLake
It would increase the price of Brent crude too so we can't rule them out. :wink:Quote:
Originally Posted by Hibrandenburg
Not sure the Saudi’s really want that much disruption to their 7 million barrels a day export business.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mibbes Aye
And making a very brave assumption that ‘destroying’ Iran would somehow resolve the Middle East tensions then there would be even more oil available for export from across the region.
The current situation of not having Iranian oil on the global market suits the Saudi’s quite nicely I’d imagine.
Fair points.Quote:
Originally Posted by RyeSloan
I think there are quite a lot of balls for the House of Saud to juggle.
There is the purely pragmatic financial need to export oil, in a world increasingly turned onto shifting as quickly as possible from fossil fuels.
There is a need to rebalance their economy and pressure to shift towards more progressive social policy, not least of all in the treatment of women.
Their government is a complex and labyrinthine world of familial relationships and there is a counter-reaction from clerics against any progressivism.
The main state actors in the region, including Saudi, whilst autonomous in many respects are also being used to some extent, as proxies, by the US, Russia and China
And there is perhaps the most challenging and complex issue to manage - Saudi is very much a champion for the Sunni cause, pitted against Iran championing the Shi’a cause. Sectarian conflict and strife dictates foreign policy even though it perhaps isn’t pragmatically in their interest but as history shows us, the mistrust and hatred of sectarianism can quite easily trump level-headedness and realpolitik.
.
Ach who would want to be a rich Saudi with all those balls to juggle! [emoji38]Quote:
Originally Posted by Mibbes Aye
Your post is a timely reminder though that the situation can’t just be boiled down to one liners like America bad or Iran bad...it’s a more like a nest of multi headed vipers where they are all armed and dangerous!
FWIW I reckon the Iranians are at it here with these tankers. Partaking in a bit of sabre rattling and reminding the US that their carrier fleets and ultra modern jets might look good but a little bit of cunning and a few small speed boats can be just as effective in causing disruption. Their denials also sound like they have been written by Putin who must be chuckling away at the spat his pals have caused.
So if I was to guess (and as per your post who can really do anything otherwise with the Middle East shenanigans) they are simply delivering a timely reminder that they won’t be pushed around or brow beaten by Trump and his ever eager allies.
The world is awash with oil and the price could fall well below $40. The Saudis need to keep the Riyal's peg to the US dollar or the US will abandon them. This is all about petrodollars. A big fall in the price of oil with a rising US dollar will be devastating. They have a lot to gain from trouble in the Hormuz straights providing the US Navy is able to stop Iran closing it.Quote:
Originally Posted by RyeSloan
Oh no doubt the Saudi’s want a high oil price in general although there is plenty of evidence that it was the Saudi’s that were at least partly responsible for crashing the price recently in a failed attempt to drove the shale producers out of the market.Quote:
Originally Posted by GreenLake
Seems to me though that orchestrating trouble in the Hormuz and deliberately trying to agitate Iran / US discourse is an extremely risky route to take in order to raise the price of oil.
Wouldn’t put it past them of course and as I said before there is always many actors with many agendas at play in that arena so anything is possible.
Yes, it was them that crashed the price. At the time, I thought it was them and their gulf allies trying to put the hurt on Russia as well as shale producers with the US quietly enjoying the pain inflicted on Venezuela and Iran while making sure the shale guys survived. I don't think the Saudis expected the price to fall so far or for so long. Maybe they thought Russia would fold on Syria. The balance now seems to be the shale producers act like a safety valve capping the price not too far over $40 where they start making profits. The US has played a blinder there and wrecked OPEC's control. The shale producers are probably going to be magically resurrected after each bankruptcy and those must be coming soon. Once their debts are written off buyers will take over lean and mean little frackers with free capital equipment. It's extremely complicated but good luck to anyone willing to trade oil futures.Quote:
Originally Posted by RyeSloan
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hibbyradge
Mohammed Morsi murdered surprise surprise.
Morsi, who became Egypt's first democratically elected leader after winning polls in 2012, had already been sentenced to more than 45 years in prison in three separate trials, including leading an outlawed group, detention and torture of anti-government protesters and leaking state secrets.
issued a decree granting himself powers above any court
he will be sadly missed by the terrorists, especially another Dictator,Erdogan
Sorry if already posted. Just watching Mike Pompeo giving a news conference in Florida on CNN. The US have sent an additional 1000 troops to the area to curb Iranian aggression. But the US dont want war.
They released a more detailed picture of the Iranian special forces on a stealth mission wearing bright red life jackets.
Attachment 22195
[emoji23][emoji23][emoji23]Quote:
Originally Posted by GreenLake
Sent from my VOG-L29 using Tapatalk
That's the false flag team.Quote:
Originally Posted by GreenLake
Keep an eye on the value of brent crude over the coming months.Quote:
Originally Posted by stokesmessiah
I just became an American Citizen an hour ago. I have no idea who these Iranians were or why they wore red lifejackets. 🇺🇸😎Quote:
Originally Posted by Hibbyradge
Now Iran have shot a US drone out of the sky. US say it was in international air space, Iran say it was over their territory.
Well i'm sure the US could provide the tracking data to back up their claim, but I have a feeling they won't....Quote:
Originally Posted by Sylar
Because Iran have been forthcoming with the same information...that bastion of truth, human rights obedience and goodwill that is the Iranian State. Perhaps they're too busy violating the nuclear deal, accumulating enriched uranium beyond their agreed capacity to take the time to release that information.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fife-Hibee
Also, you went very quiet on this entire subject after the footage of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard recovering a mine from the side of one of the tankers...actors of Middle Eastern descent hired by the US government to stitch Iran up?
Was that the stealth mission with everyone in bright red life vests?Quote:
Originally Posted by Sylar
How would Iran go about providing the tracking data when it's not their drone?Quote:
Originally Posted by Sylar
You'd think in 2019 and the introduction of high definition cameras, not to mention "colour". They'd have caught better footage than that.
Iran were clearly tracking the drone to take it down. If they've used a SAM to take it down, their systems will know precisely when they "lost" contact with the missile that took it down.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fife-Hibee
So you're suggesting what, the video was a fake? Based on what evidence?
We don't know how they took it down though, do we? You'd think the US would be eager to prove themselves however, seeing as they're the one claiming it was destroyed in international air space.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sylar
What evidence do you have to suggest that it wasn't set up? You got better video quality over 80 years ago. Did one of them not have an iphone on hand or something? After all, it's a pretty damn important piece of footage to capture if it's not a set up. Sheer lack of detail is very convenient when trying to fool people with a set up.
4 times the US threatened to stage something and blame it on Iran.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lhqLaYBtvXA
iPhone?Quote:
Originally Posted by Fife-Hibee
I would suggest the footage came from a drone...similar to the one that was shot down or the Reaper that was also attempted to be downed when observing one of the tankers.
and this is the quality of camera the US use in 2019 on security drones?Quote:
Originally Posted by RyeSloan
https://i.ibb.co/7jb7qbK/awful.png
Oooh, another conspiracy with no facts to back it up. Love it.
:woohoo: :clapper:
I agree. The conspiracy of what the US are claiming and all of those believing it without any conclusive evidence.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hibbyradge
Perhaps you can explain why the security services with the highest budget in the world can't muster anything better than a low resolution black and white camera when it comes to recording drone security footage?
Gulf of Tonkin taught us nothing it seems.
Sent from my VOG-L29 using Tapatalk
At least they had better quality footage back then.Quote:
Originally Posted by Callum_62
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...H_97900%29.jpg
No idea, but I suspect you have the gen. :rolleyes:Quote:
Originally Posted by Fife-Hibee
Of course not. I'm just not gullible enough to swallow the official line with such questionable "evidence".Quote:
Originally Posted by Hibbyradge
Did you watch the video I posted on the previous page? It may be of interest to you.
Maybe it was taken from many miles away at high zoom? Dunno. The quality of photo will depend on many factors.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fife-Hibee
They use filters. The guys in the red lifejackets have cat noses and ears.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fife-Hibee
I watched as much as I could bear. It's all part of the conspiracy that I'm very excited about.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fife-Hibee
Very excited indeed. I can't wait to see what happens in the end.
How do we decode this? Does this mean that the US downed their own drone so they could say that they forgive Iran for making a mistake?
Or did the US down it mistakenly?
I'm rubbish at conspiracies.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-48711229
Backtracking as soon as Iran mentions the UN. :whistle:Quote:
Originally Posted by Hibbyradge
It's all just an exciting conspiracy though right?
Shame you didn't bother to watch the whole video. Education is key when it comes to these things.
Who is backtracking from what exactly? :confused:Quote:
Originally Posted by Fife-Hibee
It's all very exciting, I agree.
Fake news is not education.
Iran releases a statement saying they'll take it up with the UN and Trump wastes no time coming out with "well.... maybe it was an honest mistake."Quote:
Originally Posted by Hibbyradge
The US are full of it.
So there's no conspiracy?Quote:
Originally Posted by Fife-Hibee
That's disappointing.
If you ignore the fact that they lied, then subsequently shat it as soon as Iran released that statement, then I suppose you can pretend there was nothing dodgy going on here. Enjoy remaining in that bubble. :aok:Quote:
Originally Posted by Hibbyradge
So there was a conspiracy, but someone called someone's bluff, and the conspiracy was no more?Quote:
Originally Posted by Fife-Hibee
That's a pish conspiracy.
You'd think these conspiracy inventors would be able to think a few steps ahead, eh? But mibbes no.
I just wish I hadn't got all excited in the first place.
Don't worry, they have many more things in the pipeline to try and provoke Iran into a war. Something you'd have known about if you had watched the video of them openly admitting that they do it. :wink:Quote:
Originally Posted by Hibbyradge
Or then again maybe they will...Quote:
Originally Posted by Fife-Hibee
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/201...bdaa5367ff.jpg
FAKE NEWS!Quote:
Originally Posted by RyeSloan
PHOTOSHOP!
The Syndicate are still on top of things - Colonisation will occur soon.
Trust No One.
That's good to hear. I can't wait.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fife-Hibee
Are you as disappointed as me that there wasn't a conspiracy like you said there was?
I did a reverse image search online to see exactly where this picture was sourced from. Seems to only appear on a handful of dodgy foreign sites. There's been absolutely no mention of it in US or UK media.Quote:
Originally Posted by RyeSloan
https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=e...ih=654#imgrc=_
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fife-Hibee
Maybe you are not looking at this objectively enough? I'm certain that the US has better resolution images than the one provided here - YOU don't need to know how good they are though! Why would the US announce to the world at large just how good its drone imagery really is?
Seems to me the image provided is good enough for most people to make some sort of judgment one way or the other, but probably not good enough for those out there who will not believe anything the US provides in the form of evidence anyway.
So you're saying that they deliberately made public an awful quality version of the video, because they didn't want people to know that in this day and age, it's easy and cheap to stick a HD camera on a drone?Quote:
Originally Posted by PeeJay
It looks like more reliable data than the hand-drawn effort released by the Foreign Minister of Iran :hilariousQuote:
Originally Posted by Fife-Hibee
https://twitter.com/JZarif/status/1141772824086028288
I'd love to imagine what your response would have been if the US released a hand-drawn flight plan that showed the drone was always above international waters. :greengrin
If it's "US released". Then why hasn't it been picked up by CNN? Or Fox News? Or any other major news outlet in the US? You'd think it be worth mentioning. No mention of it on the BBC, Sky News or any other major news outlets here in the UK either.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sylar
Does that not strike you as odd?
Thought I made a fair point - I think the intelligence gathering services don't generally care to share everything with Joe Public for obvious reasons ... you got the image, make of it what you will, as you are plainly doing ... :greengrinQuote:
Originally Posted by Fife-Hibee
The obvious reason being that a more detailed version may not show what they're claiming? :dunno:Quote:
Originally Posted by PeeJay
Will the New York Times suffice?Quote:
Originally Posted by Fife-Hibee
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...drone-map.html
The original image is credited to the USDoD.
But I agree with you. It IS odd that it's not being more widely covered.
Shudder - I had to go onto FoxNews to acquire this:
https://www.foxnews.com/world/pentag...very-different
If the original image is credited to the USDoD and MSM websites are not allowed to publish it. Then how was it leaked out onto the dodgy foreign websites? How were they able to obtain the original image?Quote:
Originally Posted by Sylar
Why are there no online articles from US or UK sources linking to this image that is claimed to be released by the USDoD? So far all i've found are illustrations of where the US claims the drone was taken down, but nothing linking to this image.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sylar
Surely it's huge news? Yet you have to struggle to dig out anything about it online.
So far, after deciding to fact-check your claim that it's not on the MSM sites, I've found it on the NY Times, Fox, NBC, The Washington Post AND the BBC (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-48714414).Quote:
Originally Posted by Fife-Hibee
Care to retract?
Urmm it was released by US Central Command on their verified twitter feed...which could of course be classed as a dodgy foreign site I grant you but I’m pretty sure that’s not what you were meaning.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fife-Hibee
And it’s linked in the main story on the BBC home page.
The conspiracy is back on!
:nanafunk::banana:
It doesn't count until it appears on RTE. :wink:Quote:
Originally Posted by Sylar
https://www.rte.ie/news/world/2019/0...32-iran-trump/
Very interesting and informative link, thanks [emoji736]Quote:
Originally Posted by GreenLake
Or did the US actually (on purpose) stray into Iranian airspace to test their air defence protocols. Data gathering on your enemy’s (or potential enemy’s) capability.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hibbyradge
We do it all the time. Probing Russian waters with Hunter Killers, having “exercises” on the Lithuanian border with Russia.
J
Holy Shoot!!!
https://www.vox.com/2019/6/21/187005...-drone-twitter