Thought we could get an early snap shot of things to come. Based on this totally scientific and ultra accurate polling method. :wink:
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Thought we could get an early snap shot of things to come. Based on this totally scientific and ultra accurate polling method. :wink:
Didnt bother registering to vote for it , if i had probably the Brexit party
Are there any SNP voters who voted Leave? Who are you voting for?
Must be a fair few on here as was over 30% of SNP voters that also voted Leave.
Not voted yet, but will be either SNP or Green - whoever is most likely to stop the BP getting representation in Scotland.
Greens for me today and most likely for the foreseeable future.
I voted Liberal as I have in every election since I moved here.
I considered moving back to Labour but Tornado70 put me off them with his incessant soundbites, bombast and trolling.
That would be the SNP (1st place) by far. In fact, if every Green voter in Scotland voted SNP instead, then the Brexit Party would barely get a sniff. But because a portion of the pro-EU votes are going to the Greens (5th place) and the Lib Dems (6th place). The SNP don't gain those valuable votes and it helps the Brexit Party (2nd place) to gain seats.Quote:
Originally Posted by Diclonius
Why didn't you just vote for the Brexit Party? :cbQuote:
Originally Posted by Hibbyradge
I don't think it's worth trying to worry about the tactical aspect of this election. It's fiendishly difficult to game this system, eg. last time out UKIP barely got the last seat. A small shift SNP->Green would've beaten them but actually even with the d'Hondt divisor thing happening, an even smaller shift of Green->SNP would also have beaten them.Quote:
Originally Posted by Diclonius
If you want to stop the BP, the absolute best thing you can do is get as many of your friends and family to the polls as you can. Turnout is their enemy.
Latest full scale Scottish poll from the weekend:
SNP 38
Lab 16
Brex 16
Con 11
Lib 10
Grn 4
UKIP 2
CUK 2
I think that would equate to SNP 3, Lab 1, Brex 1, Con 1.
What a inane question.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fife-Hibee
How about if every SNP voter went Green instead then?Quote:
Originally Posted by Fife-Hibee
Live in the South West of England.
Lib Dem for me. Used to vote Labour in European Elections because the regional PR of it meant my votes pulled into Bristol, Plymouth and everyone else in the rest of the South West who lives in a locked in Lib Dem or Tory seat.
My first ever election was the European Elections in 1999.
Lib Dem’s align with my thinking at the movement (STOP BREXIT). And TBH, it’s normally them or Tory who get in in my Chippenham constituency, and there’s no way I’m ever voting Tory, so Lib Dem it is.
That all said, if Corbyn had of confirmed a confirmatory vote on Brexit, I’d have voted Labour.
J
SNP presumably?Quote:
Originally Posted by James310
I almost didn't vote in the EU referendum, I cared and knew a lot less about it at that point than I care and know now (I voted remain but "project fear" hardly put forward a great case for remaining, even if it was fractionally more credible than bull**** on buses).
It would be interesting to know what has become of the SNP/ Leave group of voters over the past few years, as I imagine they are probably the group of voters most likely to have changed their standpoint ahead of any "people's vote".
True. But that's not realistically going to happen. Makes more sense to ask a small minority of people to lend their vote, than a huge minority.Quote:
Originally Posted by marinello59
If enough people vote Green/LibDem instead, then I can see the outcome being something like SNP 3 Brexit Party 2 Conservatives 1. When it could have been SNP 4 or 5.
What makes everyone think the Brexit party will get such a big vote in Scotland?
Hunny McHunface?
I find it interesting that the "36% of SNP voters voted leave" line get's touted out a lot in the media. But never any statistic of what % of Labour voters in Scotland voted for remain. They will more than likely vote Lib Dem in this election though, helping the brexit party gain seats. :whistle:Quote:
Originally Posted by Smartie
The angle he's :fishin: for is oh look, SNP supporters want Brexit/will vote for Farage, isn't Scotland just as Eurosceptic as England*? blah, blah. :rolleyes:Quote:
Originally Posted by Smartie
* spoiler alert - no it's not, by a considerable margin.
35% of Scots voted leave. Many of them were SNP suppprters.Quote:
Originally Posted by Smartie
The rest voted to remain. Many of them were not SNP supporters.Quote:
Originally Posted by marinello59
Why does this get ignored?
I actually struggled to place an X accordingly today.
As an anti-Brexit, anti-Independence voter that vowed never to vote Lib Dem again after they ****ed over generations of students to come, it was a somewhat painful choice. I went Green in the end - well aware they back the SNP's policies on Independence, but as someone who works in climate change research and professionally preaches about the need for progressive green policies at the scale of the EU as well as regionally, that sealed it.
It doesn’t.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fife-Hibee
There's been a fair bit of water under the bridge since then.Quote:
Originally Posted by marinello59
Pure hunch, but I'd expect a fair few of them to have switched. The case for the UK Union is far weaker if the Scottish case to remain in the EU is stronger.
The opposite may be true with Unionists, although I would imagine to far lesser extent.
I think it'll be about half %-wise what they get in England.Quote:
Originally Posted by Smartie
38% actually. Leave is generally getting 25-30% in Scottish polls asking for EU 2nd ref voting intention now.Quote:
Originally Posted by marinello59
There is a small core of pro-Indy Eurosceptics. What way they would jump in a post-Brexit indyref2 is one of life's great unknowns.
Don't the Lib Dems get the last seat in that outcome (their 10 beats the SNP's 6 and a third)?Quote:
Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens
Edit: Nah, ignore me, I'm being daft I think. I may need to go back and read the d'Hondt method properly!!!
Second edit: You were, of course, spot on. Lib Dems aren't far off getting a seat in that scenario, at the expense of the Tories - unless I've worked it out wrong again!
1st roundQuote:
Originally Posted by McS****y
SNP 38
Lab 16
Brex 16
Con 11
Lib 10
Grn 4
UKIP 2
CUK 2
SNP wins
2nd round
SNP 38/2 = 19
Lab 16
Brex 16
Con 11
Lib 10
Grn 4
UKIP 2
CUK 2
SNP wins
3rd round
SNP 38/3 = 12.67
Lab 16
Brex 16
Con 11
Lib 10
Grn 4
UKIP 2
CUK 2
Lab wins
4th round
SNP 38/3 = 12.67
Lab 16/2 = 8
Brex 16
Con 11
Lib 10
Grn 4
UKIP 2
CUK 2
Brex wins (boo!)
5th round
SNP 38/3 = 12.67
Lab 16/2 = 8
Brex 16/2 = 8
Con 11
Lib 10
Grn 4
UKIP 2
CUK 2
SNP wins
6th round
SNP 38/4 = 9.5
Lab 16/2 = 8
Brex 16/2 = 8
Con 11
Lib 10
Grn 4
UKIP 2
CUK 2
Con wins (boo!)
Phew, I'm glad we agreed. :agree:Quote:
Originally Posted by McS****y
In the current climate just imagine what can't possibly happen them assume that it will.Quote:
Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens
Yep. Thick ****s will vote for them.Quote:
Originally Posted by Smartie
I’m an SNP voter who voted leave but have now seen the error of my ways and I’m voting SNP in the hope of stopping brexit.Quote:
Originally Posted by James310
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I’m in a similar situation although I’m not that much into green policies either. I really struggle to bring myself to vote for either the SNP or the Greens. I’ve not voted yet but will do so tonight.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sylar
How will a vote for the SNP stop Brexit?Quote:
Originally Posted by Ozyhibby
I'll vote after work, and I intend to vote for SNP. Had considered the Greens but can't see them making as much of a dent in the Brexit party vote as the SNP will.
Would never consider voting Lib Dem again, though I have in the past - they jumped into bed with the Tories and that's pretty much unforgivable, IMHO.
Labour are a shambles, and the Tories can GTF.
I'm still a bit surprised the anger so many potential LibDems have for the party going into government with the Tories.
The country was on it's arse and needed a government. The LibDems came in and made that possible. It's not a time anyone will look back upon fondly but who knows what kind of impact they may have had in taking the edge off the Tory austerity?
Personally, I have a bit of respect for them doing something for the good of the nation that was always going to be detrimental to them, and save my disgust for the lot who deserve it most - the far right.
If they were the only party that had made some big commitment but never delivered on it then I could understand but all parties do it. If we voted by those principles all the time we would never vote for anyone.Quote:
Originally Posted by Smartie
They didn't have to go into coalition. They could've let the Tories try as a minority and take it issue by issue.Quote:
Originally Posted by Smartie
Going back on or fudging your promises is one thing, enabling a bunch of *******s who most of your electorate are diametrically opposed to is quite another. I voted for them in 2010 (thankfully they didn't win our seat). Never again.
You need to know how the counting works first.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fife-Hibee
Illustration: watch from 38:00 to get a simple explanation
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episod...-nine-22052019
Are the LibDem electorate diametrically opposed to the Tories? I wouldn't say opposite.Quote:
Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens
The Tories are an odd bunch. I wouldn't have thought there would be much that your average LibDem would find overly offensive about Ken Clarke, Michael Heseltine, even David Cameron. Rees-Mogg and chums I accept your point.
I'd consider the Rees-Moggs and the Corbyns to be opposites.
Well I voted for them (once) and I am. :greengrinQuote:
Originally Posted by Smartie
Tories exist to conserve wealth, power and privilege among those who already have it. They have a long tradition of opposing progressive measures and equality wherever they find it. As Matty says above, they can GTF.
based on the poll (22 votes)
SNP 4 seats
Brexit 1 seat
Green 1 seat
I would be happy with that :wink:
Yes, the UK needed a Government. The Lib Dems could have chosen Labour, but chose the tories instead. Never ever forget. They CHOSE the tories.Quote:
Originally Posted by Smartie
I vowed never to vote SNP again after the 1979 referendum. :wink:Quote:
Originally Posted by matty_f
What did they do wrong in the 1979 referendum? They weren't the ones who shifted the goal posts.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hibbyradge
The Lib Dems are the last party I would vote for in this election. They are political opportunists on a grand scale with no backbone..Quote:
Originally Posted by Smartie
Willie Rennie has spent the last 3 years arguing not to have a 'divisive' 2nd independence referendum, but is standing on a platform at the Euro elections of arguing for a 2nd Brexit referendum - somehow he considers Brexitref2 not to be divisive:faf: They are a bunch of chancers.
Edit - maybe indyref2 can be named a Peoples Vote for independence and the Lib Dems can support it.
It's blatantly obvious that those voting for them are going to be stabbed in the back big time. Then they can be angry with them for another decade, before forgetting all about it and voting for them yet again.Quote:
Originally Posted by The Harp Awakes
The Lib Dems don't even have a plan to prevent brexit. There is quite literally nothing they can do to halt it, regardless of how many seats they take. The SNP at least know what they need to do in order to get Scotland out of it.
I recall getting into a verbal tussle with Alex-Cole Hamilton regarding the amount of money each party spent in the EU referendum. He was blasting the SNP, claiming that they didn't spend nearly enough on the campaign while boasting how much more the Lib Dems spent. What he omitted to mention was that he was talking about the Lib Dems entire spending over the whole of the UK, not just in Scotland. If the SNP spending had been replicated over the UK as a whole, it would have been several times more than what the Lib Dems spent. They are honestly a complete farce of a party.
Heard a few stories about EU nationals denied a vote even though they were registered.
Me and me EU national partner will be heading down to vote later this evening so we'll see what happens I guess.Quote:
Originally Posted by Moulin Yarns
They have until 9pm to challenge the polling officer.Quote:
Originally Posted by Diclonius
Seemingly the UK gov "forgot" to send off paperwork for EU nationals who had registered to vote here. Joanna Cherry raised it at PMQ's yesterday (obv she was multitasking with fiendish plotting ongoing :devil:). May just shrugged and then had her usual rant about how unfair it is nobody likes her.Quote:
Originally Posted by Moulin Yarns
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...s-admin-errorsQuote:
Originally Posted by Moulin Yarns
The Cherry - May exchange here:
https://twitter.com/joannaccherry/st...85997088268288
I guess it's how one reacts to them being moved that matters.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fife-Hibee
However, as moot as that may be, the SNP supported the Tories' vote of no confidence in the Labour Government leading to Thatcher winning the '79 election.
They were ably accompanied by those nice folks in the DUP, the UUP and the UUUP.
Forgivable?
The SNP didn’t have to enter in to an agreement with the Tories to prop up the 2007-11 minority government. They chose to do it.Quote:
Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens
After Labour changed the rules of what the referendum in Scotland actually meant. Yes, it was entirely forgivable and understandable that the SNP did not want to support their government.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hibbyradge
However, Labour didn't fail because of the SNP. They failed because one of their own MPs at the time Sir Alfred Broughton was too ill to attend parliament (and sadly passed away not long after). The deputy chief Labour whip Walter Harrison approached Bernard Weatherill (the Conservative speaker) to enforce the "pairing convention". Which is an informal agreement between the ruling party and the opposition parties that in the event of an MP not be able to attend due to illness, the opposition have one of their own MPs abstain to make up for the loss. Bernard Weatherill offered to be the MP who would abstain for the Conservative Party and Walter Harrison turned the offer down.
Labour could have prevented Thatcher but chose not to enforce the pairing convention. We all know what happened next.
More dead people were counted for a No vote than supported the Tories. Just ask Jim and his 34 labour rebels. 😱Quote:
Originally Posted by Hibbyradge
Back on track, SNP. 🏁
The SNP voted with the Tories against Labour out of self interest, just like all political parties always do.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fife-Hibee
However, this self interest very quickly became self harm. Their share of the vote was almost halved and they lost 9 of their 11 seats.
We then had to endure Thatcher for 11 years and a total of 18 years of Tory government.
If "people like me" can put that utter betrayal of the Scottish people behind them and vote SNP again, then the electorate will forgive just about anything, given the right circumstances and time.
I remember, Ronnie.Quote:
Originally Posted by ronaldo7
The point is about the electorate being able to forget or forgive past behaviours (if that's the right word).
I was a member of the SNP then and I thought we were going to, literally, change the world.
Then one vote of confidence later and crash, bang, wallop.
Voted Green and will probably continue to do so from now on.
The SNP didn't vote with anyone. They voted against Labour on their own accord. They weren't giving it high fives to the tories. They were more than likely gobsmacked that Labour turned down the offer to remain in Government.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hibbyradge
Labour made the error of believing that it was their god given right to claim the SNP votes after what they did to Scotland. So many decades of potential Scottish wealth, flushed down the river Thames. All because Labour bent the rules when they didn't like the way the referendum was heading.
In truth, it wasn't the SNP that was damaged, it was Scotland on a whole.
I'd vote green, but they got less than 2% last election so they've absolutely no chance in my constituency.Quote:
Originally Posted by marinello59
I know what the SNP were voting against, imagine having the audacity to count dead people in a referendum, although nobody but the SNP seemed to bother back then. The 40% rule was a unionist gerrymander. I was a labour member back then. The 34 labour rebels seem to get written out of the history books for some reason.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hibbyradge
Anyway, as I said in the post above. Voted SNP.👌
Have a nice night, I'm away to get the vote out. 😂
Eh, naw, the confidence motion was brought by Thatcher, not the SNP. They voted with the Tories and the DUP , the UUP and the UUUP for Thatcher's motion, high fives or not.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fife-Hibee
Your middle paragraph is nonsense, but it might apply to 2010.
The last paragraph is correct. It was Thatcher that damaged Scotland. That's her who the SNP helped put into power, whether inadvertently or not.
Good luck. 👍Quote:
Originally Posted by ronaldo7
Incorrect. It was the SNP that put forward the proposals for a vote of no confidence after consulting with the Liberal Party. Only Thatcher could put it into motion, which of course she did.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hibbyradge
Labour had 2 opportunities to remain in power. The one that i've already mentioned and the other one being not screwing Scotland over on devolution.
I left the SNP because of what they did.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fife-Hibee
Parliamentary niceties mean SFA to us simpletons in the electorate.
The simple fact of the matter is that the SNP helped put Thatcher into power. They didn't have to, but they did.
They paid the price for that immediately and for years to come.
You voted SNP?Quote:
Originally Posted by ronaldo7
I just fell off my seat. :greengrin
Then do you agree that Labour also helped put Thatcher into power? Or are they somehow blameless in all of this?Quote:
Originally Posted by Hibbyradge
Of course Labour didn't put Thatcher in, but I note your use of the word "also".Quote:
Originally Posted by Fife-Hibee
The fact of the matter is that the SNP voted against the Labour government. The only alternative the UK had was Thatcher ergo they helped get Labour out in order to get Thatcher in.
Or did they think something else, magical, was going to happen? :dunno:
But as i've already pointed out (and you've conveniently ignored). Labour had the option of remaining in Government and turned the offer down.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hibbyradge
Labour turned down an offer to remain in Government knowing full well what would happen.
The SNP had their reasons for turning against Labour. What were Labours reasons?
They didn’t. It was vote by vote. Anyway, even if they had, did your mum not tell you 2 wrongs don’t make a right?Quote:
Originally Posted by marinello59
Don’t forget the Liberals who also voted no confidence.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hibbyradge
The 79 election was due by October anyway, so Thatcher would have been barely delayed.
You've lost me. What offer to remain in power?Quote:
Originally Posted by Fife-Hibee
I've forgiven them both!Quote:
Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hibbyradge
This.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fife-Hibee
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1979_v...ard_Weatherill
That's not an offer to stay in power.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fife-Hibee
Illness and a terrible mistake on behalf of the chief whip is not a refusal.
In fact, Labour didn't refuse the pairing arrangement, they actively sought it.
As Wiki explains here, and as you are no doubt aware (are you), it was some ridiculous sense of honour that caused it not to happen;
"In the BBC documentary "A Parliamentary Coup" it was revealed that Bernard Weatherill played a critical role in the defeat of the government in the vote of confidence. As the vote loomed, Labour's deputy Chief Whip, Walter Harrison approached Weatherill to enforce the pairing convention that if a sick MP from the Government could not vote, an MP from the Opposition would abstain to compensate. Weatherill said that pairing had never been intended for votes on Matters of Confidence that meant the life or death of the Government and it would be impossible to find a Conservative MP who would agree to abstain. However, after a moment's reflection, he offered that he himself would abstain, because he felt it would be dishonourable to break his word with Harrison. Harrison was so impressed by Weatherill's offer – which would have effectively ended his political career – that he released Weatherill from his obligation and so the Government fell by one vote on the agreement of gentlemen."
I see. So the SNP voting against the confidence of a Labour government after being stabbed in the back is an unforgivable sin.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hibbyradge
Labour not taking the opportunity to save themselves, thus enabling a Thatcher government is just an innocent mistake and done out of honour?
Aye, ok then. :aok:
It's not like you to think a simple explanation hides a sinister conspiracy! Maybe the illness was faked too???Quote:
Originally Posted by Fife-Hibee
If the SNP hadn't voted with the Tories, in fact if they hadn't plotted against the Labour Government, there would have been no need for pairing, mistakes or otherwise.
No wonder you don't have much time for folk over the age of about 40. They can all remember why the SNP were known as The Tartan Tories.
I’m making no judgement. I was replying to Fife who seems to think only other parties play real politics and should be punished for ever once they do. The 2007 SNP Government did a pretty good job.Quote:
Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens
My precise point about 1979.Quote:
Originally Posted by marinello59
Spot on. Thatcher was happening no matter what the other parties did.Quote:
Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens
SNP. Needs must.
Indeed. And that makes the SNPs decision to help her get in early even more stupid.Quote:
Originally Posted by marinello59
Is "conspiracy" your buzz word or something? I simply pointed out an historical fact. Labour turned down an offer from a Conservative MP who was prepared to abstain on the vote of no confidence and they turned it down. They had the opportunity to remain in Government and actively chose not to do so.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hibbyradge
It's all ifs and buts, isn't it? Likewise, you could say that if Labour hadn't (undemocratically) backtracked on Scottish devolution, then the SNP wouldn't have held the grievance against them.
It doesn't matter what way you slice it. It was ultimately Labours own doing. Perhaps they assessed the state the economy was in and didn't want to be the party to make tough economic decisions? Perhaps behind the stage curtain, Thatcher was a blessing in disguise for Labour. I guess we'll never really know.
Consider my gast flabbered.Quote:
Originally Posted by Beefster
No, the way I sliced it as an SNP member at the time, was that the SNP should not have voted Labour down. And that was before the election.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fife-Hibee
Of course I blamed the Labour Party and (eventually) the nonsense that the left saddled it with, but the SNP should not have taken out their spite in that way.
They worked hard for 30 years to shed the Tartan Tories moniker, but I have no doubt that if the need arise, they'd vote with the Tories again.
But that's what politicians have to do. Staying pure and powerless doesn't make one a great politician. It makes them a principled individual who shouldnt be a politician.
I'm not sure the SNP would side with the Tories unless it GUARANTEED independence and that's unlikely. More likely to side with Labour as I think that the Labour No voters would be more likely to be persuaded on the case for independence than the Conservative and Unionist No voters.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hibbyradge
I'm not sure the SNP would want to side with either of them, but if it was expedient to do so, they would.Quote:
Originally Posted by weecounty hibby
The SNP are currently flavour of the month.
But, as Labour, and previously the Tories, found out, you're only flavour of the month for a month.
SNP, Awful quiet at the polling station.
The point is if it was politically advantageous the SNP would work with anybody as Salmond did in 2007.Quote:
Originally Posted by weecounty hibby
Hopefully it’s a high turn out.Quote:
Originally Posted by stoneyburn hibs
Yeah, I was more thinking about the SNP propping up a larger Tory group rather than the other way round like 07 to 11Quote:
Originally Posted by marinello59
I just got another 12 who weren't bothering to get their coat on to vote as well.Quote:
Originally Posted by marinello59
Every little helps. 🎯
Good man.Quote:
Originally Posted by ronaldo7
I remember doing driving duties on the day of the referundum for devolution to get the Yes vote out. I took a car load of pensioners to the polling station who demanded to be taken to the beach for ice cream afterwards. I was hijacked. :greengrin
Worst still, they all voted No.Quote:
Originally Posted by marinello59
Just ask FH. :wink:
My mum dragging my semi-coherent gran along to vote No was one of the most depressing episodes of my life.
Voted Brexit party as my way of trying to make sure the democratic result of the referendum is honoured.
:greengrinQuote:
Originally Posted by Hibbyradge
Driving... Padding the hoof here.Quote:
Originally Posted by marinello59
Still a steady trickle up at the station on Madeira Street ten minutes ago.
I was very pleased to see a line through my other half's name when my name was scored off.
I was even more pleased to get home and find out she'd voted the same way as me, so we can both continue to look our daughter in the eye.