Brilliant thread with a brexiteer panicking about an influx of Indians ha ha.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Will_Tann...76693289189376
Will Tanner
@Will_Tanner
The Government is reportedly considering agreeing a visa free travel scheme for under-35s as part of the UK-India Trade Deal, due to be signed by Diwali on 24 Oct.
Short thread on why we shouldn't be using trade deals to dictate migration policy
Indian trade negotiators argue that Australia and NZ have youth mobility schemes under their deals. But India is MUCH bigger & younger than either.
The UN estimates there were 412 million 18-34 yr-olds in India in 2021, vs 6m in Australian and 1m in NZ. It's not comparable
The UK just took a decision to end free movement with the EU (population 446m).
Voters might not unreasonably question whether we ended free movement with Europe to create it with India. We shouldn't forget backlash when EU8 accession led to 300k net migrants between 2004-9
There are obviously important economic differences, which inevitably affect migration dynamics.
In 2020, the average income/expenditure per day was $3 dollars in India, but over $40 in the UK. The incentive to move will be understandably strong
The other issue is immigration compliance. The UK has youth mobility schemes with Aus/NZ because of a long history of compliance.
Indian migrants have relatively high rates of overstaying, and India has historically at times resisted forced returns
The Conservative Manifesto which every MP stood on in 2019 was explicit: "overall the numbers will come down."
That hasn't happened yet: last year we issued 1 million visas. Its unlikely to ever happen if the price of trade is visa free immigration