I'd go along with this view.
:aok:
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I don't think that the risk is minimal at all. It may well be less of a risk but with all the data and all the analysis we are still groping in the dark and the cautious approach IMO is the right one. Obviously, the two differing arguments on this thread will never agree.
I’m looking to getting back to reserve/development games, if one will exist going forward
Little or no social distancing required
We’re still cautious because everyone hasn’t been vaccinated yet. If the risk isn’t minimal then why are we bothering with the vaccine? If it’s making very little difference to the risk... I’ve yet to see any data anywhere that points to the vaccine not having a big impact.
Did I mention that a venue that is normally used for an event I would be applying for on the 11th September is unavailable because it will still be in use as a vaccination centre. Let that sink in. Vaccination will still be taking place in September.
Minimal sounds great as a percentage but not so when you apply it to a population. They quoted 13.4m in the high risk groups of age and health. The vaccines are said to be 90-95% effective. Going off their figures between 670k - 1.3m are not covered and in the higher risk groups.
Widespread study of AZ in USA showed that full vaccination stopped 100% of hospitalisations. Even accounting for some amount of luck if it’s 95% that’s still extremely high. Add into the fact that the chance of death is still relatively low even for elderly and vulnerable and I would class that as a minimal risk. Remember the flu still kills people every year..
If you want to live your life with zero risk I would advise never leaving your house again as otherwise it’s impossible.
Thing is, and im no expert in numbers, but if only 20% of people show symptoms, and a small percentage of that are hospitalised, and its an even smaller amount who unfortunately die, i think its about 0.3% of people who get it. So with the vaccine would it not be 5% - 10% of the 0.3% who wouldnt be protected, which will be a relatively small number.
there really isn’t any other way. Covid is endemic and will never be eradicated. We are soon approaching a point where the restrictions will be doing more damage than the virus. Like bingo said come summer I can’t see restrictions being followed stringently by anywhere near as many people were even 3 months ago.
IMO it is very dangerous to address an issue by over simplifying the problems. That has been pretty much the theme of all my posts on this thread. I can only reiterate that IMO every avenue of escape from this pandemic is fraught with the unknown and that the cautious approach, along with constant checks on data analysis, is the way to go. Obviously, I don't expect everyone to agree with my take on things, and I am always open to persuasion, but nothing on here has changed my view (so far).
https://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.c...summer-3178928
Seems the government may be deluded also.
I work in the power industry and it is far from risk free working near live equipment at 400kv. I was merely pointing out that stats are easily put out there to show either arguement using the figures touted by our Government. I sincerely hope the vaccine does what is being said in the best case scenario.