Winning At Home

Hibs need to start games with some intent and perhaps that will get both the team and the crowd going, too many times we are relying on Boyle to be brave and create the spark, our lone striker is often isolated and there's no urgency from the midfield to get in the box apart from Magennis.

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Originally Posted by Key West

Hibs need to start games with some intent and perhaps that will get both the team and the crowd going, too many times we are relying on Boyle to be brave and create the spark, our lone striker is often isolated and there's no urgency from the midfield to get in the box apart from Magennis.

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I agree with the sentiment of needing to start games with more intent.
I do think however that with the loss of McGinn and Porteous for Saturday’s match, leaving only one experienced defender from the normal back four ( young Josh still isn’t doing it for me ) that McGregor and Stevenson should have played. I don’t think it was the right game to give Wood his debut having not had previous minutes in other games. It was unfair on him because he had no support from Cadden and Hanlon was caught trying to play his own game whilst talking Wood through the game and covering for the marauding Doig.
Having selected the back four that were there I also can’t believe a place was not found for Gogic as a defensive mid.
This is not an anti JR comment in any way because I think he is the right man for the job and due to the lack of depth in the squad, injuries etc he has difficult decisions to make re team selection at the moment, all I am saying is I was surprised by the team selection for last Saturday’s match.

Need to be winning at home against teams we are expecting to finish above.

In his time so far at Hibs it's 14 league wins out of 33 at home for Jack Ross. That needs to be better.

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Originally Posted by 1620

I agree with the sentiment of needing to start games with more intent.
I do think however that with the loss of McGinn and Porteous for Saturday’s match, leaving only one experienced defender from the normal back four ( young Josh still isn’t doing it for me ) that McGregor and Stevenson should have played. I don’t think it was the right game to give Wood his debut having not had previous minutes in other games. It was unfair on him because he had no support from Cadden and Hanlon was caught trying to play his own game whilst talking Wood through the game and covering for the marauding Doig.
Having selected the back four that were there I also can’t believe a place was not found for Gogic as a defensive mid.
This is not an anti JR comment in any way because I think he is the right man for the job and due to the lack of depth in the squad, injuries etc he has difficult decisions to make re team selection at the moment, all I am saying is I was surprised by the team selection for last Saturday’s match.

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That mirrors my thoughts. Allan and Murphy were my first worry then I thought both fullbacks bomb on and we haven't got a real spoiler in front of the two centre Halves, one of who is a young debutant new to Scottish football. On paper it had little chance of success imo but sometimes you get lucky, not many times though. I hope Stevenson and McGregor are both recalled and he chooses one or the other of Allan and Murphy. If we are going 4 at the back then stick Gogic in instead of Allan and allow Newell to push on. Better still just hope we get some players back as Ross will be struggling to pick a good side from the squad we had last week. He went full on kamikaze attack in terms of personnel and forgot how we would get the ball to all the danger men. I think he will rethink that approach if no-one returns from injury.

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Originally Posted by 90274

Need to be winning at home against teams we are expecting to finish above.

In his time so far at Hibs it's 14 league wins out of 33 at home for Jack Ross. That needs to be better.

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Don't buy into win percentages/no. of wins. Only gives part of the story. Somewhere between 0 and 19 of those were draws so that's up to 19 points ignored in that stat. Average points per game is a better indicator imo but it seems to get quoted by people a lot less.

Does the 14 out of 33 relate purely to matches against teams you think we should finish above?

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Originally Posted by 007

Don't buy into win percentages/no. of wins. Only gives part of the story. Somewhere between 0 and 19 of those were draws so that's up to 19 points ignored in that stat. Average points per game is a better indicator imo but it seems to get quoted by people a lot less.

Does the 14 out of 33 relate purely to matches against teams you think we should finish above?

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Without looking I’d guess 33 home league games is the full amount. 19 last season, 4 or 5 this season and the rest in the shortened season before.

14 wins gives us a 42% win percentage at home. That’s not great. Thankfully our good away record has negated that somewhat. If you’re aiming for third place I reckon you should be shooting for somewhere around 60% (or more of course) of home games being won. That would mean winning between 11 and 12 of the 19. With around 9 games against bottom 6 teams at home each season that should be more than achievable.

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Originally Posted by 90274

Need to be winning at home against teams we are expecting to finish above.

In his time so far at Hibs it's 14 league wins out of 33 at home for Jack Ross. That needs to be better.

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Surely all home and away percentages come with the massive caveat of playing behind closed doors for a majority of the games too.

So there is a question over the concept of home advantage.

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Originally Posted by hibby rae

Surely all home and away percentages come with the massive caveat of playing behind closed doors for a majority of the games too.

So there is a question over the concept of home advantage.

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It does, but it won’t be taken into account by the people who don’t like the manager.

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Originally Posted by hibby rae

Surely all home and away percentages come with the massive caveat of playing behind closed doors for a majority of the games too.

So there is a question over the concept of home advantage.

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Good shout.

The thread is not intended as a dig at the manager but i still believe in home advantage and it looks to me like the away teams actually enjoy visiting Easter Road, they appear to have plenty of time and space in the first period of the game in which to develop their game plan and they also seem to be more energetic in closing us down, whilst we are laboured, slow and predictable, devoid of tempo and any sense of urgency.

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Originally Posted by Perfect Hatrick

Without looking I’d guess 33 home league games is the full amount. 19 last season, 4 or 5 this season and the rest in the shortened season before.

14 wins gives us a 42% win percentage at home. That’s not great. Thankfully our good away record has negated that somewhat. If you’re aiming for third place I reckon you should be shooting for somewhere around 60% (or more of course) of home games being won. That would mean winning between 11 and 12 of the 19. With around 9 games against bottom 6 teams at home each season that should be more than achievable.

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Our home form, or rather number of winning games, is a bit unusual granted, but as a few have said, maybe average point per game gives a truer picture than just wins.

Either way, it's worth discussing.

People have commented on the lack of fans last season as a way of negating home advantage, but I wonder if the stats back that up (not just at Hibs)?
I also wonder how you change traditional approaches to playing home and away, tactically. . For years we saw dour teams arrive at Easter Road, time waste from the start, spoil the play and try and grab a goal (Aberdeen spring to mind, as do St Johnstone). Maybe last season teams just played the game. In fact what exactly creates home advantage?

I'm no statistical or analytic genius but we should be winning more points at home. We don't because we're not very good at breaking teams down when they sit in against us.

I don't know what the answer is though.

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Originally Posted by Key West

Hibs need to start games with some intent and perhaps that will get both the team and the crowd going, too many times we are relying on Boyle to be brave and create the spark, our lone striker is often isolated and there's no urgency from the midfield to get in the box apart from Magennis.

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Think Hibs should play to the strengths of the defence.
3 at the back. McGinn Porteous and Hanlon with McGregor and Wood as backup utilising the energy and pace of Cadden and Doig as wing backs.
Shape the rest of the team from that position and move the ball quickly down the wings from kick off would in my view get the crowd up for it at Easter Road.

Home league games under Jack Ross

14 wins from 33 games - 42.4%
52 points from 99 available - 52.5%

A bit concerning tbh.

That's 30 pts from 57 available in a typical 19 game home season. Is that good enough for us?

We don't play with enough intensity, slow and pedestrian with an over reliance on Boyle. Teams aren't scared to come to ER because they know how we play and once you've shut Boyle out of the game the crowd quietens and get on the players backs.

We have shown in glimpses how good we can be but in general we're predictable, some players look like they're going through the motions, no competition for places are making some stagnant.

I thought we were boring a lot of the games last season and the big test was when the crowds came back, looks like they're not coming back in the hoards that they thought would, Ron will have noticed the crowds and the performances.

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Originally Posted by 90274

Home league games under Jack Ross

14 wins from 33 games - 42.4%
52 points from 99 available - 52.5%

A bit concerning tbh.

That's 30 pts from 57 available in a typical 19 game home season. Is that good enough for us?

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If equalled by away form that is a 60 point season (fortunately our away form helped us to 67 points). It's not good enough in terms of where Ron Gordon sees the club, but it's probably more than we managed for most of the past 30 years?

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Originally Posted by EVENTUALLY

Think Hibs should play to the strengths of the defence.
3 at the back. McGinn Porteous and Hanlon with McGregor and Wood as backup utilising the energy and pace of Cadden and Doig as wing backs.
Shape the rest of the team from that position and move the ball quickly down the wings from kick off would in my view get the crowd up for it at Easter Road.

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I'm afraid Cadden has yet to convince me that he has got either energy or pace. I would describe him as pedestrian.

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Originally Posted by superfurryhibby

If equalled by away form that is a 60 point season (fortunately our away form helped us to 67 points). It's not good enough in terms of where Ron Gordon sees the club, but it's probably more than we managed for most of the past 30 years?

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I’m not going to bother looking back but I’d imagine it is probably more. Possibly not by a lot though as our away record is usually nothing like it is now and is the main reason we finished third.

My concern with that is that outstanding away records always feel unsustainable. If the away record turns and the home record stays as it is then we’ll be tumbling down the league. (Stating the obvious there I suppose!)

Jack Ross is 4th in all time Hibs managers for his home wins (minimum 10 games played).

He’s behind Jock Stein, Alan Stubbs (who was in the Championships for the entirety of his time), and John Halligan.

He’s 4th best for all time record of home defeats, behind Lennon(season in the Championship), Stein, and Stubbs.

Remarkably, he’s doing relatively well.

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Originally Posted by matty_f

Jack Ross is 4th in all time Hibs managers for his home wins (minimum 10 games played).

He’s behind Jock Stein, Alan Stubbs (who was in the Championships for the entirety of his time), and John Halligan.

He’s 4th best for all time record of home defeats, behind Lennon(season in the Championship), Stein, and Stubbs.

Remarkably, he’s doing relatively well.

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That’s interesting.

Change the subject to something else - see yes big games we didn’t win or style of play (but not how many goals we score) or something.

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Originally Posted by Perfect Hatrick

I’m not going to bother looking back but I’d imagine it is probably more. Possibly not by a lot though as our away record is usually nothing like it is now and is the main reason we finished third.

My concern with that is that outstanding away records always feel unsustainable. If the away record turns and the home record stays as it is then we’ll be tumbling down the league. (Stating the obvious there I suppose!)

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I’ve had a look and Hibs have bettered 60 points three times in the past 30 years. Based on last season’s points total, our home form has been, by our past standard, pretty decent. The 33 points earned away last season definitely is unusual, but still that home form you refer to isn’t as bad as portrayed.

Lots of if’s and buts. Hopefully we’re having a blip and will emerge from it. The team has had a lot of injuries this season, that has been a factor too. I think we have enough quality to get back on tracks, starting with a win at the weekend.

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Originally Posted by Perfect Hatrick

Without looking I’d guess 33 home league games is the full amount. 19 last season, 4 or 5 this season and the rest in the shortened season before.

14 wins gives us a 42% win percentage at home. That’s not great. Thankfully our good away record has negated that somewhat. If you’re aiming for third place I reckon you should be shooting for somewhere around 60% (or more of course) of home games being won. That would mean winning between 11 and 12 of the 19. With around 9 games against bottom 6 teams at home each season that should be more than achievable.

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If it is then it's a bit misleading of 90274 to state we need to be winning at home against teams we're expected to finish above and then put a stat which includes the matches against clubs we're not expected to finish above, which if it is done based on the most common method (budget) would be Celtic, Rangers, Hearts and Aberdeen.

It seems to me to be an attempt to have a go a JR for not being able to win the small games but the stats don't back it up so they've been manipulated I might be wrong and that's not the intention (if so then apologies to 90274) but that's how it comes across to me). If we're talking about win percentages then looking at all matches and comparing to previous Hibs managers. JR is up there with the best and if comparing against modern day managers Stubbs' were all in the Championship and Lennon had a season in the Championship.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List..._F.C._managers

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Originally Posted by 007

If it is then it's a bit misleading of 90274 to state we need to be winning at home against teams we're expected to finish above and then put a stat which includes the matches against clubs we're not expected to finish above, which if it is done based on the most common method (budget) would be Celtic, Rangers, Hearts and Aberdeen.

It seems to me to be an attempt to have a go a JR for not being able to win the small games but the stats don't back it up so they've been manipulated I might be wrong and that's the intention (if so then apologies to 90274) but that's how it comes across to me). If we're talking about win percentages then looking at all matches and comparing to previous Hibs managers. JR is up there with the best and if comparing against modern day managers Stubbs' were all in the Championship and Lennon had a season in the Championship.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List..._F.C._managers

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We should be finishing ahead of Dundee United is the point. It was a reference to Saturday and so many other home games where we have dropped points that we really shouldn't.

I think the home record needs discussed. Is 14 home wins out of 33 good enough for a club like ours? Or taking 52.5% of available points at home?

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Originally Posted by 90274

We should be finishing ahead of Dundee United is the point. It was a reference to Saturday and so many other home games where we have dropped points that we really shouldn't.

I think the home record needs discussed. Is 14 home wins out of 33 good enough for a club like ours? Or taking 52.5% of available points at home?

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Did we not only lose something like 4 or 5 games at home last season? Thats not actually that bad

To many players know they will get a game no matter what performance they put in due to lack of depth to on the bench.

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Originally Posted by matty_f

Jack Ross is 4th in all time Hibs managers for his home wins (minimum 10 games played).

He’s behind Jock Stein, Alan Stubbs (who was in the Championships for the entirety of his time), and John Halligan.

He’s 4th best for all time record of home defeats, behind Lennon(season in the Championship), Stein, and Stubbs.

Remarkably, he’s doing relatively well.

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Originally Posted by 90274

We should be finishing ahead of Dundee United is the point. It was a reference to Saturday and so many other home games where we have dropped points that we really shouldn't.

I think the home record needs discussed. Is 14 home wins out of 33 good enough for a club like ours? Or taking 52.5% of available points at home?

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I'll haud the jackets :greengrin

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Originally Posted by 90274

We should be finishing ahead of Dundee United is the point. It was a reference to Saturday and so many other home games where we have dropped points that we really shouldn't.

I think the home record needs discussed. Is 14 home wins out of 33 good enough for a club like ours? Or taking 52.5% of available points at home?

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Dropping points is always pretty lamentable, but there's another 27 or so games to go before we know whether we will finish ahead of Dundee Utd. As has been pointed out, 30 points at home is pretty decent when you consider our historical points total. The frustration is that we know it could have been better. I suspect Ron Gordon will have noticed that and agree.

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Originally Posted by 90274

We should be finishing ahead of Dundee United is the point. It was a reference to Saturday and so many other home games where we have dropped points that we really shouldn't.

I think the home record needs discussed. Is 14 home wins out of 33 good enough for a club like ours? Or taking 52.5% of available points at home?

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4th best home record of all time for Hibs managers. Let’s discuss it - it’s excellent.

What is an acceptable points return? And how does that compare to previous seasons (just to make it a SMART goal).

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Originally Posted by matty_f

4th best home record of all time for Hibs managers. Let’s discuss it - it’s excellent.

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You really think 14 wins from 33 is excellent?

Chuck in some absolute horror shows as well.

Most can agree away form has been excellent.

I know you’re going to come back and talk about how it compares historically so I’m not really sure why I’m asking. But if folk really thought we were excellent at home I’m sure more would be making more of an effort to attend.