Scottish Election 2021

[Moulin Yarns]

Shouldn't the detail around that be given when we are allowed to be asked the question?

I can't see how it's similar to brexit when brexit was actually in process

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Which is pretty much the point NS kept making to AM

[Moulin Yarns]

Is there any way to do scenarios where the snp list vote is split between SNP and Greens.

I'm in Mid Scotland and Fife, and would like to see a scenario that is more realistick than all votes go one way or the other.

www.scotlandwhatif.weebly.com

[Moulin Yarns]

Is there any way to do scenarios where the snp list vote is split between SNP and Greens.

I'm in Mid Scotland and Fife, and would like to see a scenario that is more realistick than all votes go one way or the other.

www.scotlandwhatif.weebly.com

What I'm trying to do is see how many votes are required for a 2nd Green on the list. Any help appreciated (trying to convince my wife that SNP2 is wasted, as is ALBA.)

[Ozyhibby]

Is there any way to do scenarios where the snp list vote is split between SNP and Greens.

I'm in Mid Scotland and Fife, and would like to see a scenario that is more realistick than all votes go one way or the other.

www.scotlandwhatif.weebly.com

Given that the SNP are polling higher just now than 2016 then it’s likely they will take 8 of the 9 constituencies in mid Scotland and Fife. That means that their list vote will be divided by 9.
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210426/254dbbaf955936045aea92be2599ca4f.jpg
The SNP are also polling lower on list votes than last time making it even harder for them to get list seats.
Probably the easiest way to reduce the unionist seats is the 4th Tory. A drop in Tory support alongside a fairly big jump in green support might hand it to the green but it’s a long shot.
What might be possible also is if the greens increase their support above the Lib Dem’s and Willie Rennie loses his constituency to the SNP. The Lib Dem’s would have zero seats and the Greens still have 1. And the SNP have an extra one.

If you want an Indy parliament here then probably SNP 1 Green 2 is the way to go but only if polls stay stable between now and next Thursday.


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[Skol]

Shouldn't the detail around that be given when we are allowed to be asked the question?

I can't see how it's similar to brexit when brexit was actually in process

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the brexit point was in relation to the brexiteers aproach to the NI border, not the economic impact assessment

[Moulin Yarns]

Given that the SNP are polling higher just now than 2016 then it’s likely they will take 8 of the 9 constituencies in mid Scotland and Fife. That means that their list vote will be divided by 9.
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210426/254dbbaf955936045aea92be2599ca4f.jpg
The SNP are also polling lower on list votes than last time making it even harder for them to get list seats.
Probably the easiest way to reduce the unionist seats is the 4th Tory. A drop in Tory support alongside a fairly big jump in green support might hand it to the green but it’s a long shot.
What might be possible also is if the greens increase their support above the Lib Dem’s and Willie Rennie loses his constituency to the SNP. The Lib Dem’s would have zero seats and the Greens still have 1. And the SNP have an extra one.

If you want an Indy parliament here then probably SNP 1 Green 2 is the way to go but only if polls stay stable between now and next Thursday.


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A quick calc on these figures, Green needs close to 8,000 more votes to get a 2nd MSP+

[Ozyhibby]

A quick calc on these figures, Green needs close to 8,000 more votes to get a 2nd MSP+

They need a decent drop in the Tory vote as well. The best chance is probably the SNP winning Willie Rennie’s seat and the Greens finishing above Lib Dem’s on the list.


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[SHODAN]

Ah, it would be funny if Rennie was kicked out of Holyrood.

[Moulin Yarns]

Ah, it would be funny if Rennie was kicked out of Holyrood.

Without checking, he is probably top of the list for the libby dems


On checking, he is, followed by 'pointing Pete' Barrett (pkc councillor.)

[Just Alf]

the Brexit point was in relation to the brexiteers approach to the NI border, not the economic impact assessment

it was, although Brexit was also brought up when Marr tried to say it was "shameful" for Sturgeon not to have an economic assessment in place for the election.... Sturgeon tried a number of times to point out that this was an election to the Scottish parliament and for right to have an referendum vote, the time for producing an economic assessment would be in the run up to a referendum vote, she also said there was no point until after covid was behind us as we wont know the bottom line financials until then.

[Ozyhibby]

Without checking, he is probably top of the list for the libby dems


On checking, he is, followed by 'pointing Pete' Barrett (pkc councillor.)

The 4th Tory is most vulnerable. He was elected on about 18,000. So long as Greens and Lib Dem’s get above that then they will both get a seat.
It is all very fluid though and small movements can make big differences.


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[Ozyhibby]

https://ballotbox.scot/survation-april-2021


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[Future17]

Marr made some mistakes, but I didnt think Sturgeon was impressive. The answers on the border were weak. Acknowledging she agreed on the EU rules but stating she would keep trade flowing, but couldnt explain how. All very reminiscent of the Brexiteers over Ireland.

The lack of an economic assessment could also have been better illustrated in that we are essentially being asked to give a mandate to be asked a question on which we dont know what the impact will be

I suppose it depends how you view this election. The SNP (either genuinely or tactically) view it as entirely separate from a future referendum (as opposed to a mandate for a future referendum).

I can understand why a section of people (probably certain undecideds and unionists) might want that information now, but there probably isn't a big enough upside for the SNP to be getting into those discussions now. That isn't to say persuasive answers do or don't exist - just that the SNP might consider the risk isn't worth the potential reward.

[Stairway 2 7]

Got a leaflet from the Scottish family party nutjobs. Homophobic, anti abortion right wingers , which church is involved in them?

Also 2 leaflets for bonny Prince Bob. Pretty funny but wondering who's paying for it all. Is it himself as seems a lot to waste or is it being funded by someone and why. Is it just anti snp?

[Skol]

it was, although Brexit was also brought up when Marr tried to say it was "shameful" for Sturgeon not to have an economic assessment in place for the election.... Sturgeon tried a number of times to point out that this was an election to the Scottish parliament and for right to have an referendum vote, the time for producing an economic assessment would be in the run up to a referendum vote, she also said there was no point until after covid was behind us as we wont know the bottom line financials until then.

Yep. and that was one of Marr's mistakes I mentioned to raise Brexit in relation to the lack of an economic impact assessment

It still doesnt change the fact that Sturgeon's answer on the border was weak and suggested she would find some way around the EU rules which she quite happily confirmed Marr was correct on. The answer that was pretty similar to that given in relation to the Irish border - dont worry about it, it will be fine.

I have separate concerns about the lack of an economic impact assessment and as raised by another poster there are different views depending on how you view the election. I am of the view that if a mandate to seek a second referendum is being sought, we should be given more information now. However that isnt going to be the case and so we just have to get on with it

[Ozyhibby]

Yep. and that was one of Marr's mistakes I mentioned to raise Brexit in relation to the lack of an economic impact assessment

It still doesnt change the fact that Sturgeon's answer on the border was weak and suggested she would find some way around the EU rules which she quite happily confirmed Marr was correct on. The answer that was pretty similar to that given in relation to the Irish border - dont worry about it, it will be fine.

I have separate concerns about the lack of an economic impact assessment and as raised by another poster there are different views depending on how you view the election. I am of the view that if a mandate to seek a second referendum is being sought, we should be given more information now. However that isnt going to be the case and so we just have to get on with it

There is no doubt that because of the hard brexit, there will be border infrastructure and we know exactly what it will look like. It will be the exact same as we have for moving goods to NI.
People will be able to travel across the borders no problem but goods will need customs checks.
We will be able to move goods to the EU again though and will have freedom of movement again.
Thankfully Boris Johnson is working hard to make it easier to move goods in and out of the EU so by the time it happens, we’ll barely know it’s there.[emoji6]


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[Jack]

In my opinion the border question will probably a lot easier to resolve in the future than it is to guess about what might be the case in a few years time.

What NS couldn't say yesterday was that Boris Johnson's Westminster government will have probably capitulated into some proper, more sensible arrangement with the EU/NI than the one that was cobbled together a few days before it was reality and since then made to look as though the UK didn't know what it had signed up to.

I actually thought Marr was a bit of a prat holding the whole Brexit fiasco up as some sort example of how a reasonable government goes about its business.

[Stick]

Is there any way to do scenarios where the snp list vote is split between SNP and Greens.

I'm in Mid Scotland and Fife, and would like to see a scenario that is more realistick than all votes go one way or the other.

www.scotlandwhatif.weebly.com


In Mid Scotland and Fife;-

If it’s a 50/50 split of snp list seats cast in the 2016 election, 50% going to each, snp and greens, then the Tories lose 2 seats and the greens gain 2. No change to snp or other parties.

If 60% stay with the snp and 40% move to the greens then Tories lose one seat and the greens gain one seats.
No change snp or others

The snp would need to gain an extra 40,613 new list votes to gain one extra list seat, but the greens lose their existing seat.

[xyz23jc]

Marr made some mistakes, but I didnt think Sturgeon was impressive. The answers on the border were weak. Acknowledging she agreed on the EU rules but stating she would keep trade flowing, but couldnt explain how. All very reminiscent of the Brexiteers over Ireland.

The lack of an economic assessment could also have been better illustrated in that we are essentially being asked to give a mandate to be asked a question on which we dont know what the impact will be

BREXIT PAL, BREXIT! :aok:

[Ozyhibby]

https://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2021/04/exclusive-scot-goes-pop-panelbase-poll.html?m=1

Panelbase again and commissioned by an Alba supporter but showing Alba at 6% again. Only Panelbase are showing this. Doesn’t mean they are wrong though.


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[StevieC]

The Tories appear to be using gorilla tactics in Mid Scotland. Not only have they bombarded the area with leaflets, the latest one came in camouflaged!

Not a single bit of blue on the leaflet, predominantly red and orange, and stating that Labour and LibDems won’t stand up to the SNP.
“The fact is, Labour and LibDems would rather work with the SNP than join up with others to oppose them”
Roothy on inside (hidden from initial view) and DRoss on the back again, going all out with the “peach coloured” message for the list vote.

[lapsedhibee]

The Tories appear to be using gorilla tactics in Mid Scotland.
Roothy on inside and DRoss on the back again

Wouldn't this have been more appropriate?

[weecounty hibby]

The Tories appear to be using gorilla tactics in Mid Scotland. Not only have they bombarded the area with leaflets, the latest one came in camouflaged!

Not a single bit of blue on the leaflet, predominantly red and orange, and stating that Labour and LibDems won’t stand up to the SNP.
“The fact is, Labour and LibDems would rather work with the SNP than join up with others to oppose them”
Roothy on inside (hidden from initial view) and DRoss on the back again, going all out with the “peach coloured” message for the list vote.

Don't suppose they had any policies? Or was it all about stopping the SNP and then we'll kind of just make it up if that miracle ever happens. I don't understand anyone voting for these *******s, even to "save the union" if folk want to vote union then go for Labour. The Tories north and south of the border are self serving **** and I will never understand anyone voting for them

[Ozyhibby]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210427/b362ac6d1ab78be20f104b674c7d468a.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210427/c0185837defad2c8707a7137158118d9.jpg
Yesterday’s Panelbase poll.


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[Renfrew_Hibby]

Its It's strange how in the last few days Labour/Sarwar have taken to chiefly attacking the Tories and Dross and vice versa. Facebook feeds show adverts for the Tories criticising Sarwar for being weak and then immediately followed by a Labour ad with a 'Tories Bad' message.

Hilarious how the two have just given up on trying to challenge the SNP and are scrapping over the right to be runners up. I realise Sarwar is playing for the long run but this election was all about how the nationalist vote was going to be diluted and people would vote tactically to to oust them.

All I've heard is how Sarwar is winning over Tory voters in the affluent suburbs such as Newton Mearns and Bearsden but losing the 'staunch' vote in Shettleston or Castlemilk.

[ronaldo7]

The Tories appear to be using gorilla tactics in Mid Scotland. Not only have they bombarded the area with leaflets, the latest one came in camouflaged!

Not a single bit of blue on the leaflet, predominantly red and orange, and stating that Labour and LibDems won’t stand up to the SNP.
“The fact is, Labour and LibDems would rather work with the SNP than join up with others to oppose them”
Roothy on inside (hidden from initial view) and DRoss on the back again, going all out with the “peach coloured” message for the list vote.

I got a similar one. It only mentions the party list vote 12 times.

[Ozyhibby]

Labour and the Tories are in a desperate battle for lost votes only. They will take very few constituencies.


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[JeMeSouviens]

https://athousandflowers.net/2021/04/05/weekly-******-083-the-alba-party/

[JeMeSouviens]

Labour and the Tories are in a desperate battle for lost votes only. They will take very few constituencies.


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They have lost a hell of a lot of votes, to be fair. :wink::greengrin

[Hibs Class]

The Tories appear to be using gorilla tactics in Mid Scotland. Not only have they bombarded the area with leaflets, the latest one came in camouflaged!

Not a single bit of blue on the leaflet, predominantly red and orange, and stating that Labour and LibDems won’t stand up to the SNP.
“The fact is, Labour and LibDems would rather work with the SNP than join up with others to oppose them”
Roothy on inside (hidden from initial view) and DRoss on the back again, going all out with the “peach coloured” message for the list vote.

Don't know if it helps, Stevie, but we got an SNP leaflet with a picture of Boris Johnson on it

[IWasThere2016]

I would be SNP if home - as I want Indy not necessarily the SNP.

How anyone can vote Tory as present is beyond me... scandalously corrupt lot. Shameful.

Labour are a perpetual calamity

Has to be a significant SNP win shirley?!?!

[1 8 7 5]

Right, help me oot chaps;


I now reside in Bonnyrigg..... I have a flyer from SNP saying both votes, and I now have a flyer from Alba saying give them the list vote..... whats the best thing for me to do with my list vote?

[JeMeSouviens]

Right, help me oot chaps;


I now reside in Bonnyrigg..... I have a flyer from SNP saying both votes, and I now have a flyer from Alba saying give them the list vote..... whats the best thing for me to do with my list vote?

For Alba the current state of polling is:

1 firm (Panelbase) says they stand to make breakthroughs and could win up to 8 seats.

5 firms (YouGov, ComRes, Survation, Opinium, Ipsos/MORI) say they will get 3% or less and will probably win no seats but might deprive other pro-Indy parties list seats.


The SNP will probably win most of the Lothian constituencies but no list seats. The Greens will probably get 2 list seats.


I personally wouldn't vote for the Alba, the day before yesterday's man's revenge mission/social conservatism. Basing your vote on "probablys" to try and get a tactical result is dangerous. What if the SNP constituency vote is overestimated and they narrowly miss a couple of seats they're predicted to win? Then they would need list votes to compensate.

I think you should vote for whichever party you prefer out of SNP and Greens and let the chips fall where they may.

[Just Alf]

Right, help me oot chaps;


I now reside in Bonnyrigg..... I have a flyer from SNP saying both votes, and I now have a flyer from Alba saying give them the list vote..... whats the best thing for me to do with my list vote?

If I read this right, worst thing is to vote for Alba, no difference if you vote SNP and an improvement of 3 indy seats if you vote green
(based on 2016 voting in Lothian)

https://scotlandwhatif.weebly.com/

[Bostonhibby]

Don't know if it helps, Stevie, but we got an SNP leaflet with a picture of Boris Johnson on it[emoji1]

Maybe Bozo contacted some guy called Murray Ross to see which party was doing best in Scotland so Murray told him the SNP.

Bozo is the sort of politician who sees which way the crowd are going then runs to the front and says follow me folks.

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[1 8 7 5]

For Alba the current state of polling is:

1 firm (Panelbase) says they stand to make breakthroughs and could win up to 8 seats.

5 firms (YouGov, ComRes, Survation, Opinium, Ipsos/MORI) say they will get 3% or less and will probably win no seats but might deprive other pro-Indy parties list seats.


The SNP will probably win most of the Lothian constituencies but no list seats. The Greens will probably get 2 list seats.


I personally wouldn't vote for the Alba, the day before yesterday's man's revenge mission/social conservatism. Basing your vote on "probablys" to try and get a tactical result is dangerous. What if the SNP constituency vote is overestimated and they narrowly miss a couple of seats they're predicted to win? Then they would need list votes to compensate.

I think you should vote for whichever party you prefer out of SNP and Greens and let the chips fall where they may.


If I read this right, worst thing is to vote for Alba, no difference if you vote SNP and an improvement of 3 indy seats if you vote green
(based on 2016 voting in Lothian)

https://scotlandwhatif.weebly.com/



Thank you for replies :aok:

[JeMeSouviens]

If I read this right, worst thing is to vote for Alba, no difference if you vote SNP and an improvement of 3 indy seats if you vote green
(based on 2016 voting in Lothian)

https://scotlandwhatif.weebly.com/

Only if:

- the SNP constituency vote holds up at 2016 levels and Unionists don't pull off constituency tactical voting against them.
- the list vote switches to the Greens en masse, which isn't exactly likely.

That's the trouble with attempted tactical voting under this system, you have to know what everyone else is going to do in order to figure out the tactics.

[Ozyhibby]

For Alba the current state of polling is:

1 firm (Panelbase) says they stand to make breakthroughs and could win up to 8 seats.

5 firms (YouGov, ComRes, Survation, Opinium, Ipsos/MORI) say they will get 3% or less and will probably win no seats but might deprive other pro-Indy parties list seats.


The SNP will probably win most of the Lothian constituencies but no list seats. The Greens will probably get 2 list seats.


I personally wouldn't vote for the Alba, the day before yesterday's man's revenge mission/social conservatism. Basing your vote on "probablys" to try and get a tactical result is dangerous. What if the SNP constituency vote is overestimated and they narrowly miss a couple of seats they're predicted to win? Then they would need list votes to compensate.

I think you should vote for whichever party you prefer out of SNP and Greens and let the chips fall where they may.

The Greens two seats in Lothian could be at risk if the SNP win more constituencies. It would mean the Tories get one of the Greens list seats. If all else stays the same. It’s probably why they are standing a candidate in Edinburgh Central.
Trying to game this system is very difficult.


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[cabbageandribs1875]

https://scontent.fman1-2.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.6435-9/176582923_3841714629209324_2270549159674384624_n.p ng?_nc_cat=103&ccb=1-3&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=X9DODISjAuoAX-1EM3W&_nc_ht=scontent.fman1-2.fna&oh=69076b6d002d503d9547986df4fb46d8&oe=60ACA672

[Ozyhibby]

For Lothian, the best Indy outcome is for SNP to take extra constituencies. Edinburgh Central and Edinburgh Southern are within touching distance. At a push maybe Edinburgh Western. And if that happens it will take an increased Green vote for them to keep their two seats and if they do then it’s a big win for Indy. Even if they only get 1, the pro Indy vote is ahead.


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[Ozyhibby]

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/douglas-ross-would-voted-against-23991009?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar

As well as Travellers, Douglas Ross is very fond of Gay people either.


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[Callum_62]

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/douglas-ross-would-voted-against-23991009?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar

As well as Travellers, Douglas Ross is very fond of Gay people either.


Sent from my iPhone using TapatalkRuth will be delighted

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[danhibees1875]

https://scontent.fman1-2.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.6435-9/176582923_3841714629209324_2270549159674384624_n.p ng?_nc_cat=103&ccb=1-3&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=X9DODISjAuoAX-1EM3W&_nc_ht=scontent.fman1-2.fna&oh=69076b6d002d503d9547986df4fb46d8&oe=60ACA672

That feels a bit disingenuous from the author.

They want to realign the upper tax rates so that the middle-to-high earners who have (over the last couple of years) paid more tax than elsewhere in the UK go back to paying the same.
They would be looking to keep the lower starter rate that sees the lower paid paying less tax.

They also claimed they (as a group of politicians) wouldn't take the extra money.

[lapsedhibee]

That feels a bit disingenuous from the author.

They want to realign the upper tax rates so that the middle-to-high earners who have (over the last couple of years) paid more tax than elsewhere in the UK go back to paying the same.
They would be looking to keep the lower starter rate that sees the lower paid paying less tax.

They also claimed they (as a group of politicians) wouldn't take the extra money.

How do you "not accept", in Murray Ross's words, an income tax cut? Is there a box on the self-assessment form where you can choose your own income tax rate? :confused:

[danhibees1875]

How do you "not accept", in Murray Ross's words, an income tax cut? Is there a box on the self-assessment form where you can choose your own income tax rate? :confused:

You presumably either negotiate a pay cut or donate the excess. :dunno:

[lapsedhibee]

Murray Ross on Ch4 leaders' debate doing Trump-level interrupting of Sturgeon. Such an annoying ****.

[ronaldo7]

Murray Ross on Ch4 leaders' debate doing Trump-level interrupting of Sturgeon. Such an annoying ****.

Tonight's takeaway was angry shouty men who won't respect democracy.

[Ozyhibby]

I missed the debate tonight but I assume the fact Massie is saying Sturgeon came out best that it was a hammering?
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210427/f0b90955ce69308653951b5ccd787f5f.jpg


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[ronaldo7]

I missed the debate tonight but I assume the fact Massie is saying Sturgeon came out best that it was a hammering?
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210427/f0b90955ce69308653951b5ccd787f5f.jpg


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I don't think these debates lend themselves to winners, but they certainly show up the losers, or those sitting on the fence.

[lapsedhibee]

I missed the debate tonight but I assume the fact Massie is saying Sturgeon came out best that it was a hammering?
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210427/f0b90955ce69308653951b5ccd787f5f.jpg


Harvie was very good in the segment I saw. Murray his usual embarrassing self - I don't know how Sturgeon keeps her temper with him.

[SHODAN]

Who thought Ross was a good idea?

[Steven79]

Who thought Ross was a good idea?You should see the rest of them...

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[Ozyhibby]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210428/b3b8c785645e77f7e084d68ffb535c31.jpg
Another poll out this morning, this time from Ashcroft. They are usually non standard but here it is anyway. Good news for SNP, Tories and Greens. Bad for Alba and Labour.


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[Ozyhibby]

https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2021/04/my-new-scottish-research-finds-independence-in-the-balance/


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[Hibby Bairn]

New poll

https://twitter.com/SavantaComRes/status/1387655832037437442?s=19

[Ozyhibby]

New poll

https://twitter.com/SavantaComRes/status/1387655832037437442?s=19

If that is part of a trend rather than an outlier then a both votes SNP voting strategy starts to look more appealing.


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[Ozyhibby]

https://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2021/04/alba-vote-increases-in-new-savanta.html?m=1


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[Moulin Yarns]

If that is part of a trend rather than an outlier then a both votes SNP voting strategy starts to look more appealing.


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I've done a calculation for Mid Scotland and fife, based on 2016 results. Lb Dem had one constituency seat and SNP had 8

For SNP to win a list seat based on the same results they would need an extra 41000 votes on the list, and it would be at the expense of the Green list seat

For Green to win an extra list seat (at the cost of a tory one) there would need to be an additional 20000 votes.

in Mid Scotland and Fife both votes SNP is a waste, and assuming the Green vote holds then Alba would need abou 18000 votes to unseat the green candidate.

So clearly, in Mid Scotland and Fife SNP 1 Green 2 is a better option for Independence supporters.

Now all I've got to do is convince my wife

[The Harp Awakes]

https://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2021/04/alba-vote-increases-in-new-savanta.html?m=1


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Recent polls are certainly all over the place. Probably a combination of the complexity of the Holyrood voting system, sampling inaccuracies and genuine indecision amongst voters on particularly their list vote.

Interesting that the betting still seems to favour the SNP getting a majority (Paddy Power @ 8/11 and Betfair stating a 60% chance), albeit the odds are close.

I think a particular unknown is the Sarwar factor and whether Labour get a bounce on May 6. If they do, where is that vote likely to shift from; perhaps the tories given their common stance on independence? Even if Labour do get a bounce though, it's difficult to see them making any progress in constituency seats, as other than the 3 they hold, they were also rans in most of the other 70 in 2016.

[Ozyhibby]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210429/8171ecd860726ab4a1a0f1fc05134e3c.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210429/ab307ddf0c8f77905b90f55bef7516f3.jpg

Polling averages still look good for SNP.


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[Skol]

Recent polls are certainly all over the place. Probably a combination of the complexity of the Holyrood voting system, sampling inaccuracies and genuine indecision amongst voters on particularly their list vote.

Interesting that the betting still seems to favour the SNP getting a majority (Paddy Power @ 8/11 and Betfair stating a 60% chance), albeit the odds are close.

I think a particular unknown is the Sarwar factor and whether Labour get a bounce on May 6. If they do, where is that vote likely to shift from; perhaps the tories given their common stance on independence? Even if Labour do get a bounce though, it's difficult to see them making any progress in constituency seats, as other than the 3 they hold, they were also rans in most of the other 70 in 2016.

It is looking increasingly likely that we end up in a situation with an Independence supporting majority of MSPs but less than 50% of the voters having expressed support for Independence supporting parties.

This does give Sturgeon the mandate she desires, however will she feel she has the support to allow he to ask Boris. I fear this could leave us in a no mans land.

[Ozyhibby]

It is looking increasingly likely that we end up in a situation with an Independence supporting majority of MSPs but less than 50% of the voters having expressed support for Independence supporting parties.

This does give Sturgeon the mandate she desires, however will she feel she has the support to allow he to ask Boris. I fear this could leave us in a no mans land.

Independence isn’t on the ballot alone though. All that is needed is a monotype of MSP’s in favour of having a referendum. That’s where you need over 50%.


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[SHODAN]

Constituencies will by-and-large hold.
SNP seat count to stay roughly the same.
Labour to take a couple lists off Tories, but remain 3rd.
Green to take a few more off both.
Alba: bust.

That's my prediction.

[Moulin Yarns]

Independence isn’t on the ballot alone though. All that is needed is a monotype of MSP’s in favour of having a referendum. That’s where you need over 50%.


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And from your post above, ballot box is saying in the Constituency vote a minimum of 51% are for pro independence parties ( SNP and Greens)

[Santa Cruz]

Finally, tonight at 10pm on BBC Scotland the Party Leader's will be forced to liven up this Election by Chief Constable Cameron Miekelson. :greengrin

[Moulin Yarns]

Finally, tonight at 10pm on BBC Scotland the Party Leader's will be forced to liven up this Election by Chief Constable Cameron Miekelson. :greengrin

Do you think Murray Ross will understand that it's a spoof or not? 🤔😁

[Santa Cruz]

Do you think Murray Ross will understand that it's a spoof or not? 🤔😁

He mentions Hibs, I won't spoil it further. :wink:

[Hibrandenburg]

He mentions Hibs, I won't spoil it further. :wink:

All the leaders showed a decent sense of humour and it would be interesting to have a pint with all of them, except Ross, what a ******.

[stoneyburn hibs]

Kate Forbes on BBC radio Scotland just now
She's an excellent orator, fielding all questions with ease.

[Ozyhibby]

Kate Forbes on BBC radio Scotland just now
She's an excellent orator, fielding all questions with ease.

I like her. She will be a future FM I think.


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[The Harp Awakes]

I like her. She will be a future FM I think.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yes, I said this on here before and quite a few disagreed. I definitely think KF is in Nicola's succession plan.

She was thrown in at the deep end at the 11th hour when Derek McKay resigned and has done a pretty decent job. She's early on in her political career and will learn a lot from working alongside the FM.

[Santa Cruz]

Kate Forbes on BBC radio Scotland just now
She's an excellent orator, fielding all questions with ease.

She'll either go to Health or Education after the Election.

[Ozyhibby]

She'll either go to Health or Education after the Election.

Hope so. She needs to get a grounding in different dept’s. Education needs someone to go in a come up with new ideas now.


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[stoneyburn hibs]

I like her. She will be a future FM I think.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Agree,I think she has the potential.

[Keith_M]

Finally, tonight at 10pm on BBC Scotland the Party Leader's will be forced to liven up this Election by Chief Constable Cameron Miekelson. :greengrin


I remember the previous one. Everybody really got into the spirit of things, except Richard Leonard, who was taking it all very seriously.

He was so out of touch it was unreal.

[Santa Cruz]

I remember the previous one. Everybody really got into the spirit of things, except Richard Leonard, who was taking it all very seriously.

He was so out of touch it was unreal.

It was the same, some quite funny points put to them and they took it in good humour. Ross tried, he just doesn't come across as a natural when it comes to humour. Nae Salmond with McCaskill standing in (no like him to miss an opp, maybe wasn't invited), even Galloway got an appearance. Liked Sarwar's response to the question about the national team's chances at the Euro's.

[Keith_M]

It was the same, some quite funny points put to them and they took it in good humour. Ross tried, he just doesn't come across as a natural when it comes to humour. Nae Salmond with McCaskill standing in (no like him to miss an opp, maybe wasn't invited), even Galloway got an appearance. Liked Sarwar's response to the question about the national team's chances at the Euro's.


Nicola Sturgeon: "Democracy works best when people vote for me".


There you have it, The People's Republic of Scotland, led by Kim-Jong-Nicola

[Just Alf]

Nicola Sturgeon: "Democracy works best when people vote for me".


There you have it, The People's Republic of Scotland, led by Kim-Jong-Nicola

Just watch, in a year or so someone will regurgitate posts like this to prove NS is anti-democratic!

[ronaldo7]

Just watch, in a year or so someone will regurgitate posts like this to prove NS is anti-democratic!

Will she still be hanging on the crossbar at Wembley in a years time though. 🙈

[JimBHibees]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000vmvj/scot-squad-the-chief-does-democracy

Really enjoyed it. :greengrin

[Moulin Yarns]

Britain elects tweet

Scottish parliament election forecast (30 Apr 2021):

SNP: 62 MSPs (-1)
CON: 26 (-5)
LAB: 25 (+1)
GRN: 11 (+5)
LDEM: 5% (-)
ALBA: 0 (-)

More on seat changes, polls and probabilities here:
https://t.co/sEKbDLbuT5 https://t.co/ucjaBSFcPj

[Callum_62]

Britain elects tweet

Scottish parliament election forecast (30 Apr 2021):

SNP: 62 MSPs (-1)
CON: 26 (-5)
LAB: 25 (+1)
GRN: 11 (+5)
LDEM: 5% (-)
ALBA: 0 (-)

More on seat changes, polls and probabilities here:
https://t.co/sEKbDLbuT5 https://t.co/ucjaBSFcPjOh well, no snp majority obviosuly means no appetite for indy ref.

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[Moulin Yarns]

Oh well, no snp majority obviosuly means no appetite for indy ref.

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73 Pro Indy MSPs, it's not all about the SNP.

[Northernhibee]

Good to see the Tories falling away.

[Northernhibee]

73 Pro Indy MSPs, it's not all about the SNP.

If anything it’s a good argument against the “Indy is all about SNP” folks.

[The Harp Awakes]

73 Pro Indy MSPs, it's not all about the SNP.

Although you are spot on, if that was the result next Thursday, the unionist parties, media and Westminster tories will claim with no majority for the SNP, that there is no mandate for indyref 2.

I suspect we would then see an SNP/Green, coalition formed, giving what would be in effect, a pro independence Scottish Government, with a healthy 'majority'. A potentially good thing for the independence movement I think as it would dilute the unionist mantra of demonising the SNP over independence and may encourage a boader spectrum of the electorate to vote Yes if indyref 2 was secured.

[Santa Cruz]

Although you are spot on, if that was the result next Thursday, the unionist parties, media and Westminster tories will claim with no majority for the SNP, that there is no mandate for indyref 2.

I suspect we would then see an SNP/Green, coalition formed, giving what would be in effect, a pro independence Scottish Government, with a healthy 'majority'. A potentially good thing for the independence movement I think as it would dilute the unionist mantra of demonising the SNP over independence and may encourage a boader spectrum of the electorate to vote Yes if indyref 2 was secured.

Correct me if I'm wrong, is that not the mandate the SNP are seeking and this is why they are asking for both votes, so they have a majority Government?

[The Harp Awakes]

Correct me if I'm wrong, is that not the mandate the SNP are seeking and this is why they are asking for both votes, so they have a majority Government?

Clearly that's what the SNP want, as any political party would. However I don't think the SNP have ever said they have to have a majority to have a mandate for indyref 2.

[JeMeSouviens]

Correct me if I'm wrong, is that not the mandate the SNP are seeking and this is why they are asking for both votes, so they have a majority Government?

All the major parties are seeking a majority govt and asking for both votes, it's just the SNP are the only one with a realistic chance of achieving it. The SNP doesn't think it needs a majority on its own for indyref2, if that's what you mean?


If there is a majority of people in the Scottish Parliament who want an independence referendum and have been democratically elected there, then yes there is a mandate for a second independence referendum.

https://www.thenational.scot/news/19201984.sturgeon-indyref2-vow-yes-majority-holyrood/

[Moulin Yarns]

Correct me if I'm wrong, is that not the mandate the SNP are seeking and this is why they are asking for both votes, so they have a majority Government?

In mid scotland and fife, SNP would need around 160,000 list votes for 1 seat assuming the 8 Constituency seats are the same as 2016. This would cost greens a seat. If greens get around 36,000 list votes they could get 2 seats. SNP 1 Green 2 increases yes.

I hope this explains why, if a yes majority is to be achieved next week then it is more likely to happen with 2nd votes going to the Greens. The 36,000 votes should be enough to give greens an extra seat in the region at the cost of a Tory seat. I think that is a win/win. 😁

[Santa Cruz]

In mid scotland and fife, SNP would need around 160,000 list votes for 1 seat assuming the 8 Constituency seats are the same as 2016. This would cost greens a seat. If greens get around 36,000 list votes they could get 2 seats. SNP 1 Green 2 increases yes.

I hope this explains why, if a yes majority is to be achieved next week then it is more likely to happen with 2nd votes going to the Greens. The 36,000 votes should be enough to give greens an extra seat in the region at the cost of a Tory seat. I think that is a win/win. 😁

I can understand that from a Yes voters point of view. What I don't get is why the SNP would not suggest this tactical vote specifying 2nd vote to the Greens in certain regions in order to guarantee an Indy majority as opposed to their current strategy of both votes SNP.

[Moulin Yarns]

I can understand that from a Yes voters point of view. What I don't get is why the SNP would not suggest this tactical vote specifying 2nd vote to the Greens in certain regions in order to guarantee an Indy majority as opposed to their current strategy of both votes SNP.

That's a bit like Sarwar telling voters to give the list votes to the lib dems though. No politician would say that, although I do know a lib dem who asked folk to vote tory. 🙄

[Santa Cruz]

That's a bit like Sarwar telling voters to give the list votes to the lib dems though. No politician would say that, although I do know a lib dem who asked folk to vote tory. 🙄

Not really, presumably Labour would want a majority government just to govern. The SNP want a majority for a specific mandate, so if the mandate is their main goal, I would have thought they would have worked with the Greens to advise voting strategies to achieve that. Will be interesting to see how the list vote goes.

[Moulin Yarns]

Not really, presumably Labour would want a majority government just to govern. The SNP want a majority for a specific mandate, so if the mandate is their main goal, I would have thought they would have worked with the Greens to advise voting strategies to achieve that. Will be interesting to see how the list vote goes.

Putting it very simply, any politician telling people to vote for any party other than their own would rightly be crucified in the media. Privately it may make more sense to them that to reach their goal, then a vote for a party with similar aims is worth while, but to admit that in public would be political suicide.

However, myself, having done the sums for my area, I can say to anyone that is willing to listen that to have the best chance of a majority in Holyrood for independence then, in mid scotland and fife at least, it is more likely that a second vote for the Scottish greens will achieve that goal.


I hope that makes sense. 👍

Edit : in 2016 snp had over 120,000 second votes and got no list seats, green had about 17,000 votes for 1 seat, and by my calculations a bit more than double that gets another seat from the tories. 😉

[Callum_62]

73 Pro Indy MSPs, it's not all about the SNP.Ofcourse it isn't in any democracy around the world

This is Scotland though

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[Future17]

Putting it very simply, any politician telling people to vote for any party other than their own would rightly be crucified in the media. Privately it may make more sense to them that to reach their goal, then a vote for a party with similar aims is worth while, but to admit that in public would be political suicide.

However, myself, having done the sums for my area, I can say to anyone that is willing to listen that to have the best chance of a majority in Holyrood for independence then, in mid scotland and fife at least, it is more likely that a second vote for the Scottish greens will achieve that goal.


I hope that makes sense. 👍

Edit : in 2016 snp had over 120,000 second votes and got no list seats, green had about 17,000 votes for 1 seat, and by my calculations a bit more than double that gets another seat from the tories. 😉

Good post. The other aspect is folk are stupid and some would end up giving 2nd vote Green in the "wrong" areas. It's a much harder message to get across campaign-wise.

[Santa Cruz]

Good post. The other aspect is folk are stupid and some would end up giving 2nd vote Green in the "wrong" areas. It's a much harder message to get across campaign-wise.

I wouldn't necessarily say they're stupid. I think with FPTP being easy to understand , the List vote is a bit more complex and challenging to work out without doing a fair bit of research. Do you not think there's a possibility some will end up giving their 2nd vote in the wrong area, with some following SNP advice for both votes?

[Moulin Yarns]

I wouldn't necessarily say they're stupid. I think with FPTP being easy to understand , the List vote is a bit more complex and challenging to work out without doing a fair bit of research. Do you not think there's a possibility some will end up giving their 2nd vote in the wrong area, with some following SNP advice for both votes?

I'm guessing you are in Edinburgh or lothians. Let me have a couple of days and I'll do a similar exercise for that area. I need the time because today I was replacing a wash hand basin and tomorrow I have to get materials for redecoration of a bedroom. Sunday might be a day of rest 😉.

[Glory Lurker]

If the referendum bill is passed by the Parliament it doesn't matter hee haw who voted for it. Westminster will no doubt say no, but the SNP not having a majority would be no argument at all to support the refusal.

[Santa Cruz]

I'm guessing you are in Edinburgh or lothians. Let me have a couple of days and I'll do a similar exercise for that area. I need the time because today I was replacing a wash hand basin and tomorrow I have to get materials for redecoration of a bedroom. Sunday might be a day of rest 😉.

MY please don't, whilst it is a kind offer. I've posted my votes. Apologies if I gave the impression I was trying to work out the best Indy vote strategy, I was more looking for opinions on the voting strategy of both votes SNP.

[Glory Lurker]

I think turnout could still play a significant part. This is probably the least intense "general" election in Scotland since before the Great Reform Act. The polls are based on input from folk who are motivated enough to sign up for the process. In these exceptional circumstances do they actually reflect the wider electorate? Postal ballots might play a big role in the outcome which might not be good news for the SNP.

[Ozyhibby]

I think turnout could still play a significant part. This is probably the least intense "general" election in Scotland since before the Great Reform Act. The polls are based on input from folk who are motivated enough to sign up for the process. In these exceptional circumstances do they actually reflect the wider electorate? Postal ballots might play a big role in the outcome which might not be good news for the SNP.

Any general election reflect opinion. It should never be undermined by people before hand.


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[cabbageandribs1875]

that's mouthpiece Galloway's mob isn't it

https://scontent.fman1-2.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.6435-9/180311420_10158212391268511_4825547614984811704_n. jpg?_nc_cat=106&ccb=1-3&_nc_sid=825194&_nc_ohc=9X8yDHILl1kAX8J_noS&_nc_ht=scontent.fman1-2.fna&oh=3b6e608e1bbf2142b61b74126a750c6b&oe=60B3E79E

[Ozyhibby]

that's mouthpiece Galloway's mob isn't it

https://scontent.fman1-2.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.6435-9/180311420_10158212391268511_4825547614984811704_n. jpg?_nc_cat=106&ccb=1-3&_nc_sid=825194&_nc_ohc=9X8yDHILl1kAX8J_noS&_nc_ht=scontent.fman1-2.fna&oh=3b6e608e1bbf2142b61b74126a750c6b&oe=60B3E79E

Sure is.


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[weecounty hibby]

A measure of Galloways double standards and sheer hypocrisy is shown in 3 tweets from yesterday. In one he complained that an 80 yo granny in Dundee called him a "wee tinky" This on the same day he called Janey Godley a Jakie and waxed lyrical about his best pal Ian Paisley calling him a pape in two others. The man has made a good living by being a hypocrite and using double standards to his advantage. Total ******** of a man

[SHODAN]

A measure of Galloways double standards and sheer hypocrisy is shown in 3 tweets from yesterday. In one he complained that an 80 yo granny in Dundee called him a "wee tinky" This on the same day he called Janey Godley a Jakie and waxed lyrical about his best pal Ian Paisley calling him a pape in two others. The man has made a good living by being a hypocrite and using double standards to his advantage. Total ******** of a man

He's a right-wing bigot pretending at being a socialist. **** him.

[Callum_62]

Both votes communist! https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210501/57a002128130519a440c64a47c359425.jpg

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[lord bunberry]

Both votes communist! https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210501/57a002128130519a440c64a47c359425.jpg

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Now we’re talking comrade :greengrin

[Pretty Boy]

Both votes communist! https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210501/57a002128130519a440c64a47c359425.jpg

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A party in Scotland offering something other than a rehash of the neo liberal consensus wrapped up in either a saltire or union flag?

Good luck to them but I think they are pitching for a miniscule market.

[cabbageandribs1875]

https://scontent.fman1-2.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.6435-9/180796792_10159378078621719_3156370414615438019_n. jpg?_nc_cat=102&ccb=1-3&_nc_sid=825194&_nc_ohc=TLy6On4RonIAX-tz0vE&_nc_ht=scontent.fman1-2.fna&oh=60c5fb9a8dc6773eb42baa1a649070cd&oe=60B1CA0B



oooohh listen to him

[Bangkok Hibby]

https://scontent.fman1-2.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.6435-9/180796792_10159378078621719_3156370414615438019_n. jpg?_nc_cat=102&ccb=1-3&_nc_sid=825194&_nc_ohc=TLy6On4RonIAX-tz0vE&_nc_ht=scontent.fman1-2.fna&oh=60c5fb9a8dc6773eb42baa1a649070cd&oe=60B1CA0B



oooohh listen to him

Apart from jumping the gun I see nothing wrong in that. NS can of course ignore it.

[DaveF]

No idea who unionist clubs Scotland are but hanging union flags over the bridges on the bypass today.

[Moulin Yarns]

https://scontent.fman1-2.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.6435-9/180796792_10159378078621719_3156370414615438019_n. jpg?_nc_cat=102&ccb=1-3&_nc_sid=825194&_nc_ohc=TLy6On4RonIAX-tz0vE&_nc_ht=scontent.fman1-2.fna&oh=60c5fb9a8dc6773eb42baa1a649070cd&oe=60B1CA0B



oooohh listen to him

I really hope they don't get any seats.

[Moulin Yarns]

No idea who unionist clubs Scotland are but hanging union flags over the bridges on the bypass today.

On my way back from Perth today the road over the A9 at Ballinluig was festooned with saltires, catalan flags and Yes banners. A lovely sight.

[Callum_62]

On my way back from Perth today the road over the A9 at Ballinluig was festooned with saltires, catalan flags and Yes banners. A lovely sight.Driving through to Glasgow it was union Jack's and a couple of folk on bridges

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[Pretty Boy]

So the 'flag ****gers' from both sides were out it force today then?

[StevieC]

On my way back from Perth today the road over the A9 at Ballinluig was festooned with saltires, catalan flags and Yes banners. A lovely sight.

Nicola was in Perth today, doing a bit of canvassing in Letham.

[Moulin Yarns]

Nicola was in Perth today, doing a bit of canvassing in Letham.

Damn. I was at tesco and b&q.

[degenerated]

No idea who unionist clubs Scotland are but hanging union flags over the bridges on the bypass today.Hearts, Rangers and Airdrie would be my guess :greengrin

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[Ozyhibby]

Got my first knock on the door canvasser in 15 years living in this house. Someone campaigning for Alex Cole Hamilton. Sent packing.


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[The Harp Awakes]

Got my first knock on the door canvasser in 15 years living in this house. Someone campaigning for Alex Cole Hamilton. Sent packing.


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Cole Hamilton is a red hot favourite to win Edinburgh West with the bookies, but I think the SNP have got a chance of winning the seat. He made an erse of himself during the Salmond inquiry and I think Labour will takes votes of him. Might just allow the SNP to sneak a win.

[Ozyhibby]

Cole Hamilton is a red hot favourite to win Edinburgh West with the bookies, but I think the SNP have got a chance of winning the seat. He made an erse of himself during the Salmond inquiry and I think Labour will takes votes of him. Might just allow the SNP to sneak a win.

Very much a long shot I think but you never know. [emoji1696]


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[Ozyhibby]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210501/388420a63fce27afece12117f2da92c2.jpg


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[Ozyhibby]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210502/f7f23ff1e02ec73a4b806adad554bca0.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210502/3df7422e07ccee888fa0876351c7a6c3.jpg
Good poll for SNP and Tories. Sarwar would have less seats than Leonard. Hardly surprising when he can’t engage in biggest issue in the country.


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[Stairway 2 7]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210502/f7f23ff1e02ec73a4b806adad554bca0.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210502/3df7422e07ccee888fa0876351c7a6c3.jpg
Good poll for SNP and Tories. Sarwar would have less seats than Leonard. Hardly surprising when he can’t engage in biggest issue in the country.


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Depressingly high tory number. Want Labour second, so we don't have to see that ******** reply first at first ministers questions

[Hibrandenburg]

Dross on the Marr show refusing to answer the question on what democratic process is needed to validate the right to another referendum. Well he didn't refuse to answer the question, he just waffled on about some irrelevant rubbish.

Rennie also insistent that the Scottish electorate can't be given the right to decide their own future.

[StevieC]

Andrew Marr this morning 🙄

After his grilling of Nicola that must be the lamest, shortest interviews of Murray Ross and Oor Willie I’ve ever seen. Did not push for answers to his questions and allowed both to basically deliver a party political broadcast.

[SHODAN]

Dross on the Marr show refusing to answer the question on what democratic process is needed to validate the right to another referendum. Well he didn't refuse to answer the question, he just waffled on about some irrelevant rubbish.

Rennie also insistent that the Scottish electorate can't be given the right to decide their own future.

Rennie lost all credibility ever since he insisted on reversing Brexit (the result he didn't want) and not indyref2 (the result he did want) uh, he never did have any. Sorry.

[Hibs Class]

Cole Hamilton is a red hot favourite to win Edinburgh West with the bookies, but I think the SNP have got a chance of winning the seat. He made an erse of himself during the Salmond inquiry and I think Labour will takes votes of him. Might just allow the SNP to sneak a win.

The SNP candidate has barely surfaced in the area, and doesn't comment on local issues, likely because those issues are coming from the SNP Council which she won't be allowed to criticise. ACH has allied himself to local opinion and, whether opportunistic or not that'll likely count in his favour.

[CloudSquall]

In fairness to Marr I wouldn't be arsed either interviewing Rennie.



On the subject of Salmond's letter I do wonder when (or even if) Nicola would pull the trigger on a sescond referendum, I do worry this recovery from the pandemic will take so long we'll be back in front of a ballot paper in 5 years with the "vote for the SNP for indyref2" being promoted once again.

[Pretty Boy]

In fairness to Marr I wouldn't be arsed either interviewing Rennie.



On the subject of Salmond's letter I do wonder when (or even if) Nicola would pull the trigger on a sescond referendum, I do worry this recovery from the pandemic will take so long we'll be back in front of a ballot paper in 5 years with the "vote for the SNP for indyref2" being promoted once again.

I'd put the likelihood of that being the case at considerably higher than 50%.

I'm increasingly sceptical of the SNP being the road to independence and even more so them being the route to the kind of radical independence we need. Talk of consensus and compromise is already creeping in. Maybe other people have 20 or 25 years to wait to see meaningful change, my generation doesn't.

[StevieC]

I do worry this recovery from the pandemic will take so long we'll be back in front of a ballot paper in 5 years with the "vote for the SNP for indyref2" being promoted once again.

If the SNP gets a mandate/majority at this election I honestly can’t see them risking that at the next election in 5 years. I agree that it might not be within 2 years of this one, but I can’t see it being more than 4.

[cabbageandribs1875]

she's some piece of work this Smith yin eh, along with that Goat Campbell..

MSM_Monitor on Twitter: "Last night's BBC News at Six saw the BBC's Scotland editor Sarah Smith front a hatchet-job on the SNP using education. Between her and BBC Scotland's political editor, Glenn Campbell, they're doing their best to erode as much SNP support as possible. Don't let them succeed. https://t.co/aNg0tW4QOI" / Twitter (https://twitter.com/msm_monitor/status/1388481158414012417)


i'm sure everyone knows what Smith and the BBC have been doing for a few years now, plant the seeds then make a little apology a couple of days later, what a lot of "mistakes" this woman makes




https://scontent.fman1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.6435-9/180970452_1697151600468512_767646964006644145_n.jp g?_nc_cat=108&ccb=1-3&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=BeMoqtw4NJMAX-DAqGz&_nc_ht=scontent.fman1-1.fna&oh=666ad598a5762248ed49254cbc246a45&oe=60B29F2C

[Ozyhibby]

I'd put the likelihood of that being the case at considerably higher than 50%.

I'm increasingly sceptical of the SNP being the road to independence and even more so them being the route to the kind of radical independence we need. Talk of consensus and compromise is already creeping in. Maybe other people have 20 or 25 years to wait to see meaningful change, my generation doesn't.

I’m 100% certain that if there is a pro Indy majority then a section 30 request will be made. After that, it’s uncertain how it will play out but it won’t be for the lack of the snp trying.


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[Ozyhibby]

https://twitter.com/robdunsmore/status/1388775666586464256?s=21


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[CloudSquall]

Sarah Smith must have some record of saying whatever she wants on national, prime time news and then giving a half arsed apology to her miniscule audience on Twitter.

[wookie70]

https://twitter.com/robdunsmore/status/1388775666586464256?s=21


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Their analysts simply don't have a clue. A one seat majority in an electoral system designed not to have a majority party in control is a massive mandate. Never mind that majority is likely to be backed by other pro indi parties and that is with the SNP going out to win list seats which will probably hurt the over Indy majority. I'd tell them to shove their bribes and ask where the money was for the last hundred years and particularly since oil and gas was found.

[JimBHibees]

Sarah Smith must have some record of saying whatever she wants on national, prime time news and then giving a half arsed apology to her miniscule audience on Twitter.

Exactly make the mistake when the most people are watching. Making the same mistake over and over is not a mistake.

[JimBHibees]

So is snp 1 green 2 in lothians the way to go?.

[Moulin Yarns]

So is snp 1 green 2 in lothians the way to go?.

I would think so 😉

[JimBHibees]

Cole Hamilton is a red hot favourite to win Edinburgh West with the bookies, but I think the SNP have got a chance of winning the seat. He made an erse of himself during the Salmond inquiry and I think Labour will takes votes of him. Might just allow the SNP to sneak a win.

How is he so popular always comes over as an absolute trumpet.

[Ozyhibby]

So is snp 1 green 2 in lothians the way to go?.

Given current polling then I would say yes.


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[Ozyhibby]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210502/092dfda87cc012846d364901c45dfd9f.jpg


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[cabbageandribs1875]

look at the regional list for south of scotland, probably same for everywhere i imagine..

Abolish the Scottish parliament, WTF is that all about
Freedom Alliance...jesus wept
Scotia Future..

i give up, absolutely ridiculous

https://scontent.fman1-2.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.6435-9/181450180_10159031262493904_7615075904395792937_n. jpg?_nc_cat=101&ccb=1-3&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_ohc=GG28-8KVuA4AX8t0JlE&_nc_ht=scontent.fman1-2.fna&oh=704e48b844cb2dd2f6620eb25d645227&oe=60B66480

[Santa Cruz]

How is he so popular always comes over as an absolute trumpet.

Going from what my nephew was saying he attends a fair bit of community events and makes a point of engaging in chat with his constituents, Said he comes across as genuine, likeable and easy to talk to.

[Moulin Yarns]

look at the regional list for south of scotland, probably same for everywhere i imagine..

Abolish the Scottish parliament, WTF is that all about
Freedom Alliance...jesus wept
Scotia Future..

i give up, absolutely ridiculous

https://scontent.fman1-2.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.6435-9/181450180_10159031262493904_7615075904395792937_n. jpg?_nc_cat=101&ccb=1-3&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_ohc=GG28-8KVuA4AX8t0JlE&_nc_ht=scontent.fman1-2.fna&oh=704e48b844cb2dd2f6620eb25d645227&oe=60B66480


A lot of fruitcakes on the ballot papers. Worth ignoring and voting for a party you can trust. Like the Greens 😉

[cabbageandribs1875]

A lot of fruitcakes on the ballot papers. Worth ignoring and voting for a party you can trust. Like the Greens 😉


both votes SNP in the south....and highlands


SNP & Greens through the weeg, and other constituencies i can't remember :greengrin



i think :hmmm:

[Moulin Yarns]

both votes SNP in the south....and highlands


SNP & Greens through the weeg, and other constituencies i can't remember :greengrin



i think :hmmm:

Pretty much!

[Ozyhibby]

A lot of fruitcakes on the ballot papers. Worth ignoring and voting for a party you can trust. Like the Greens [emoji6]

For Indy, both votes SNP is better in south of Scotland I think.


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[StevieC]

I think this is how you deal with an obstinate host during an election interview on the BBC

https://youtu.be/LIn_wZAq9vY

[JimBHibees]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210502/092dfda87cc012846d364901c45dfd9f.jpg


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Oh great more Scots that hate Scotland just what we need.

[Future17]

I think this is how you deal with an obstinate host during an election interview on the BBC

https://youtu.be/LIn_wZAq9vY

I haven't seen much of Geissler as an interviewer, but didn't think he was particularly obstinate.

Sturgeon was as impressive as always though.

[cabbageandribs1875]

I think this is how you deal with an obstinate host during an election interview on the BBC

https://youtu.be/LIn_wZAq9vY


like post above i actually thought he was ok there :dunno:

[cabbageandribs1875]

https://i.ibb.co/bPy3v2L/voting.jpg (https://ibb.co/TknT0bR)

[Ozyhibby]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210503/6dbc967598735dc9cf7efed77f864819.jpg

Tories dropping their opposition to democracy?


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[Keith_M]

Gotta keep them Kaffliks down, you know.

#weearrapeepul



https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210502/092dfda87cc012846d364901c45dfd9f.jpg


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[Since90+2]

Gut instinct is telling me Labour and the Greens will do pretty well and the SNP perhaps not aswell as predicted.

What the means for actual seats is almost impossible to predict due to the complexities of the voting system.

[Glory Lurker]

It's a stinker that final results won't be known until Saturday. I'll be a wreck by full time.

[Santa Cruz]

It's a stinker that final results won't be known until Saturday. I'll be a wreck by full time.

I thought it was Sunday?

[Glory Lurker]

I thought it was Sunday?

After managing to mistakenly think on Saturday that Livi had equalised, and posting on the match day thread that they had, I am now questioning myself. Will away and double-read the article I took this from!

Edit -Glenn Campbell, BBC website, Saturday evening. Evening....gulp.

[Santa Cruz]

After managing to mistakenly think on Saturday that Livi had equalised, and posting on the match day thread that they had, I am now questioning myself. Will away and double-read the article I took this from!

Edit -Glenn Campbell, BBC website, Saturday evening. Evening....gulp.

I probably wasn't paying attention, I know someone working at the count and thought they said they had a shift Sat through to Sunday. Apologies for confusing you.

[Steven79]

Gut instinct is telling me Labour and the Greens will do pretty well and the SNP perhaps not aswell as predicted.

What the means for actual seats is almost impossible to predict due to the complexities of the voting system.I truly don't understand anyone still voting Labour in Scotland.

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[Glory Lurker]

I probably wasn't paying attention, I know someone working at the count and thought they said they had a shift Sat through to Sunday. Apologies for confusing you.

No worries. I confuse myself most of the time!

[Ozyhibby]

Most of the constituency counts will be done by Friday night I think? The list votes and seat allocations will likely be on Saturday.


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[CloudSquall]

I imagine any Labour boost will mostly be made up of unionists Ross loses due to his disaster of a campaign.

Big question will be the SNP turnout on the day, will half arsed voters actually vote if they think the SNP are guaranteed a win?

[Glory Lurker]

Most of the constituency counts will be done by Friday night I think? The list votes and seat allocations will likely be on Saturday.


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Looks like a decent chunk of constituencies will be counted on the Saturday. I really hope everything's totted up before kick off!

[cabbageandribs1875]

nice seeing a Dutch TV crew interviewing English Scots for Yes and DG pensioners for Yes down in the borders News from English Scots for Yes (https://englishscotsforyes.scot/news?fbclid=IwAR2CqhI2a36ocJX8pJ1isqVEPrcCMuKmdnfG z2mBjbLOzlet3Q8Ivb3ySvA)

and Ash Denholm getting interviewed by a Swiss TV crew in Lochend park, i've also watched/read interviews from German TV companies in the last several months also CNN i think it was


unfortunately people in this country wanting some balanced reporting instead of state TV and Tory-owned publications need to watch/read Foreign media outlets, how ******* shameful is that :agree: no wonder some are brainwashed

[Ozyhibby]

Looks like a decent chunk of constituencies will be counted on the Saturday. I really hope everything's totted up before kick off!

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210503/1415eab25a981ed765a291150d60cf97.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210503/0aebc12456df1e13ced7b1cc1cf3b3a7.jpg


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[Ozyhibby]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210503/71e580f025ea365aa2c88350f653ec00.jpg


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[Ozyhibby]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210504/e516d8b411d1626927780c98ea07602f.jpg
Sky’s new poll is about as good as it gets for SNP.


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[Hibrandenburg]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210504/e516d8b411d1626927780c98ea07602f.jpg
Sky’s new poll is about as good as it gets for SNP.


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That would be incredible.

[JeMeSouviens]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210504/e516d8b411d1626927780c98ea07602f.jpg
Sky’s new poll is about as good as it gets for SNP.


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(Genuinely) feel a bit sorry for Sarwar who's done pretty well. Certainly compared to the Lino.

[Ozyhibby]

(Genuinely) feel a bit sorry for Sarwar who's done pretty well. Certainly compared to the Lino.

Felt he started well but after a while it became clear he was just repeating prepared lines over and over again. And not wanting to debate the biggest issue in Scottish politics makes me wonder why he bothered getting involved at all?


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[Hibs Class]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210504/e516d8b411d1626927780c98ea07602f.jpg
Sky’s new poll is about as good as it gets for SNP.


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I often wonder what the Green's numbers would be if they took a neutral position on independence. I don't know what proportion of their vote is driven by green policies v independence supporters, but I expect there will be a section of voters who would like to support them on green issues but who don't want to bolster support for independence.

[Keith_M]

(Genuinely) feel a bit sorry for Sarwar who's done pretty well. Certainly compared to the Lino.


He's a very professional and accomplished speaker and I think he got a bit of an early boost because of that.

[Ozyhibby]

I often wonder what the Green's numbers would be if they took a neutral position on independence. I don't know what proportion of their vote is driven by green policies v independence supporters, but I expect there will be a section of voters who would like to support them on green issues but who don't want to bolster support for independence.

The greens believe that the way to advance the green agenda is through independence. Changing stance for electoral gain would make them no better than Alba.


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[JeMeSouviens]

I often wonder what the Green's numbers would be if they took a neutral position on independence. I don't know what proportion of their vote is driven by green policies v independence supporters, but I expect there will be a section of voters who would like to support them on green issues but who don't want to bolster support for independence.

Greens (generally, not just the Scottish ones) are pretty big on localism. I think their support for Indy stems from that. It's pretty difficult to square localism with the ridiculously over-centralised UK state.

[Keith_M]

Greens (generally, not just the Scottish ones) are pretty big on localism. I think their support for Indy stems from that. It's pretty difficult to square localism with the ridiculously over-centralised UK state.


If that's the case, how do they feel about the EU?

:dunno:

[JeMeSouviens]

If that's the case, how do they feel about the EU?

:dunno:

https://greens.scot/content/localism-in-europe

[Moulin Yarns]

Greens (generally, not just the Scottish ones) are pretty big on localism. I think their support for Indy stems from that. It's pretty difficult to square localism with the ridiculously over-centralised UK state.

Or indeed the over centralised Scottish state. Police Scotland for example.

[Just Alf]

Or indeed the over centralised Scottish state. Police Scotland for example.

Indeed. A policy consideration for the political parties in a newly independent Scotland, I think it would loose the SNP votes if they wanted to keep it centralised as it is now.

[Future17]

Got a personalised letter today from Ruth Davidson asking me to vote tactically to stop independence. Her name and photo all over it, with no mention of Douglas Ross.

I understand the reasoning for it but it makes me wonder if he's long for the leadership role.

[SHODAN]

Will we get an exit poll on Thurs?

[Pagan Hibernia]

Any chance of adding a poll to this thread to see how Hibs.netters are swaying?

[JeMeSouviens]

Will we get an exit poll on Thurs?

Doubt it. They're very expensive and it's only a regional Scotland/North Britain thing.

[Steven79]

Doubt it. They're very expensive and it's only a regional Scotland/North Britain thing.Harder to rig as well if you do that.

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[Bangkok Hibby]

I wonder how those of us who live outwith Scotland feel. I'm every bit as passionate as I was before I left. Been making sure all my family get out and vote.
If I was there I'd be SNP 1 Greens 2

[wookie70]

I often wonder what the Green's numbers would be if they took a neutral position on independence. I don't know what proportion of their vote is driven by green policies v independence supporters, but I expect there will be a section of voters who would like to support them on green issues but who don't want to bolster support for independence.

They are the most progressive party imo, much more than the SNP. I will vote SNP first vote but I would rather vote Green as their policies align better with my view on the world and that isn't just environmental issues. They are what the SNP should be imo and if you are old school Labour which I am it is a natural choice for Yes voters. I suspect there may be Labour voters who like me started voting green after Blair and after briefly returning with Corbyn have now left again. Plenty reasons to look at what the Green Party have to offer whether you support Indi or not imo.

It is such a pity that SNP voters will do the sheep thing and go 1 and 2 SNP instead of returning a large number of Green list MSPs. A complete waste of an Indi vote in most regions imo.

[Hibrandenburg]

I wonder how those of us who live outwith Scotland feel. I'm every bit as passionate as I was before I left. Been making sure all my family get out and vote.
If I was there I'd be SNP 1 Greens 2

I'm very passionate. Prior to Brexit our life plan was to sell up over here and move back to a small coastal town with a decent golf course on retirement. Brexit has now made that much more difficult. Might now have to settle for similar on the Med, I'm hearing there's a few good deals in Spain to be had at the moment.

I think there's always an emotional attachment to home and if Scottish literature and musical folklore is to be believed, then we Scots are more melancholic than most.

[Bostonhibby]

I wonder how those of us who live outwith Scotland feel. I'm every bit as passionate as I was before I left. Been making sure all my family get out and vote.
If I was there I'd be SNP 1 Greens 2I'm a Labour voter but if I was back home in Edinburgh just now I'd vote the same way as you.

I wouldn't mind getting one of those Murray Ross / Ruth the mooth leaflets through the letterbox though, going to be collectors items in the future.

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[Bangkok Hibby]

I'm very passionate. Prior to Brexit our life plan was to sell up over here and move back to a small coastal town with a decent golf course on retirement. Brexit has now made that much more difficult. Might now have to settle for similar on the Med, I'm hearing there's a few good deals in Spain to be had at the moment.

I think there's always an emotional attachment to home and if Scottish literature and musical folklore is to be believed, then we Scots are more melancholic than most.

I might feel the same if Scotland was an independent nation but part of Britain, no thanks. I'll take Thailand's military regime every time 😁🙏🏻

[Bostonhibby]

I might feel the same if Scotland was an independent nation but part of Britain, no thanks. I'll take Thailand's military regime every time [emoji16][emoji1317][emoji106]
At least you know where you stand with your run off the mill corrupt military dictatorships, much harder when you've got to live with a democratically elected corrupt right wing cabal[emoji6]

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[Ozyhibby]

They are the most progressive party imo, much more than the SNP. I will vote SNP first vote but I would rather vote Green as their policies align better with my view on the world and that isn't just environmental issues. They are what the SNP should be imo and if you are old school Labour which I am it is a natural choice for Yes voters. I suspect there may be Labour voters who like me started voting green after Blair and after briefly returning with Corbyn have now left again. Plenty reasons to look at what the Green Party have to offer whether you support Indi or not imo.

It is such a pity that SNP voters will do the sheep thing and go 1 and 2 SNP instead of returning a large number of Green list MSPs. A complete waste of an Indi vote in most regions imo.

SNP 1 Green 2 for me. With polls the way they are it’s the most sensible use of my vote in Lothian.


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[Ozyhibby]

Definitely no exit poll this week.


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[lapsedhibee]

Definitely no exit poll this week.


:confused: Are BBC/ITV preparing to seriously downplay the result if it goes against them?

[Bangkok Hibby]

[emoji106]
At least you know where you stand with your run off the mill corrupt military dictatorships, much harder when you've got to live with a democratically elected corrupt right wing cabal[emoji6]

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The certainty is strangely comforting. 🙂

[SHODAN]

Felt he started well but after a while it became clear he was just repeating prepared lines over and over again. And not wanting to debate the biggest issue in Scottish politics makes me wonder why he bothered getting involved at all?


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Labour have previous for abstaining. Brexit, independence, Bain principle, any centre-right Tory vote in the commons...

[JeMeSouviens]

New YouGov poll for the Times - the SNP should get a majority on their own on these numbers, but a tidy return for the Greens as well. :aok:

(I voted SNP/Green as well, btw, not really tactically, I want to see the SNP pushed on environment and land reform in particular.)



Scottish parliament voting intention(s):

Constituency:
SNP: 52% (+3)
CON: 20% (-1)
LAB: 19% (-2)
LDEM: 6% (-)

List:
SNP: 38% (-1)
CON: 22% (-)
LAB: 16% (-1)
GRN: 13% (+3)
LDEM: 5% (-)
ALBA: 3% (+1)

via
@YouGov, 02 - 04 May
Chgs. w/ 20 Apr

[JeMeSouviens]

YouGov's seat projection:

SNP 68 :greengrin majority of 4
Con 26
Lab 17
Grn 13 :greengrin
Lib 4
Alba 1 :rolleyes:

[weecounty hibby]

YouGov's seat projection:

SNP 68 :greengrin majority of 4
Con 26
Lab 17
Grn 13 :greengrin
Lib 4
Alba 1 :rolleyes:
I'd take that any day. Alba isn't my cup of tea but could be interesting

[Hibs90]

YouGov's seat projection:

SNP 68 :greengrin majority of 4
Con 26
Lab 17
Grn 13 :greengrin
Lib 4
Alba 1 :rolleyes:

Yes please.

[Bangkok Hibby]

Yes please.

Incredible so many Scots vote Tory

[Hibs90]

Incredible so many Scots vote Tory

It baffles me. It's a combination of Rangers fans/Unionists/English living here mostly. No doubt if you were to eliminate those they would get very little votes.

[Renfrew_Hibby]

Majority of 7 surely?

[weecounty hibby]

It baffles me. It's a combination of Rangers fans/Unionists/English living here mostly. No doubt if you were to eliminate those they would get very little votes.

The hun thing is over exaggerated in my experience. In our circle of friends where all the families get together and holiday together there are two families who are huns and are SNP and Indy voters. There is one family who's parents on both sides were from England and they are Stirling Albion fans and they are staunch! Us Hibbies are SNP as are the Falkirk supporting sister in law and husband. I also have an old school pal who is an out and out Rangers fan but is an SNP councillor. In short all huns are fuds but at least some of them see political sense.

[Hibs90]

The hun thing is over exaggerated in my experience. In our circle of friends where all the families get together and holiday together there are two families who are huns and are SNP and Indy voters. There is one family who's parents on both sides were from England and they are Stirling Albion fans and they are staunch! Us Hibbies are SNP as are the Falkirk supporting sister in law and husband. I also have an old school pal who is an out and out Rangers fan but is an SNP councillor. In short all huns are fuds but at least some of them see political sense.

Yeah of course not all but you only need to look at social media and those who are often opposing the SNP/Indy have some sort of Rangers related avatar or username. Basing your political beliefs on your football team is pathetic.

[SHODAN]

YouGov's seat projection:

SNP 68 :greengrin majority of 4
Con 26
Lab 17
Grn 13 :greengrin
Lib 4
Alba 1 :rolleyes:

https://i.ytimg.com/vi/nUv5Q9we_l4/hqdefault.jpg

[Bangkok Hibby]

The hun thing is over exaggerated in my experience. In our circle of friends where all the families get together and holiday together there are two families who are huns and are SNP and Indy voters. There is one family who's parents on both sides were from England and they are Stirling Albion fans and they are staunch! Us Hibbies are SNP as are the Falkirk supporting sister in law and husband. I also have an old school pal who is an out and out Rangers fan but is an SNP councillor. In short all huns are fuds but at least some of them see political sense.

Agree with all that. Easy to apportion Scottish Tory votes to huns but nowhere near enough brain dead, knuckle dragging ****wits to make a huge difference.

[CropleyWasGod]

It baffles me. It's a combination of Rangers fans/Unionists/English living here mostly. No doubt if you were to eliminate those they would get very little votes.

Really don't think it is. May be just your own experience (and we do tend to surround ourselves with similar types), but you have to factor in farmers, and (particularly in Edinburgh and Glasgow) much of the affluent class. Also need to recognise that many of us become more conservative as we get older.

You included "unionist". That's pretty much half of the population.😉

[Hibs90]

Really don't think it is. May be just your own experience (and we do tend to surround ourselves with similar types), but you have to factor in farmers, and (particularly in Edinburgh and Glasgow) much of the affluent class. Also need to recognise that many of us become more conservative as we get older.

You included "unionist". That's pretty much half of the population.😉

It's certainly been my experience. I've yet to meet a Tory voter in person who isn't one of them.

Obviously not all unionists, but there will be a sizeable amount of them who do.

[JeMeSouviens]

Majority of 7 surely?

Sorry, yes, you're right.

[weecounty hibby]

Yeah of course not all but you only need to look at social media and those who are often opposing the SNP/Indy have some sort of Rangers related avatar or username. Basing your political beliefs on your football team is pathetic.
I agree and I often think how small must your IQ be to vote a certain way because of ra gers, tradishuns and the Queens 11.

[Renfrew_Hibby]

Loads of young farmer types, the rugger buggers who go for a day out at Kelso races in mustard or pink trews and the misses wears a dead pheasant as a hat.

I'm sure they aren't of a particularly staunch persuasion but would be very much Tory and although very proud of a slightly rose tinted version of Scotland, would be aghast at the thought of independence.

[danhibees1875]

It baffles me. It's a combination of Rangers fans/Unionists/English living here mostly. No doubt if you were to eliminate those they would get very little votes.

If you didn't include unionists the Tories would get very little votes? Yes, I think that's probably fair.

[SHODAN]

Really don't think it is. May be just your own experience (and we do tend to surround ourselves with similar types), but you have to factor in farmers, and (particularly in Edinburgh and Glasgow) much of the affluent class. Also need to recognise that many of us become more conservative as we get older.

You included "unionist". That's pretty much half of the population.😉

I know it's a sample of one, but a farm near us has a massive SNP banner up. Found that pretty surprising tbh.

[Hibrandenburg]

It baffles me. It's a combination of Rangers fans/Unionists/English living here mostly. No doubt if you were to eliminate those they would get very little votes.

What are you suggesting? :wink:

[Hibrandenburg]

I know it's a sample of one, but a farm near us has a massive SNP banner up. Found that pretty surprising tbh.

Maybe they exported a lot to the EU?

[ronaldo7]

They are the most progressive party imo, much more than the SNP. I will vote SNP first vote but I would rather vote Green as their policies align better with my view on the world and that isn't just environmental issues. They are what the SNP should be imo and if you are old school Labour which I am it is a natural choice for Yes voters. I suspect there may be Labour voters who like me started voting green after Blair and after briefly returning with Corbyn have now left again. Plenty reasons to look at what the Green Party have to offer whether you support Indi or not imo.

It is such a pity that SNP voters will do the sheep thing and go 1 and 2 SNP instead of returning a large number of Green list MSPs. A complete waste of an Indi vote in most regions imo.

I know many SNP supporters who are voting Green on the list this time. :greengrin

[wookie70]

I know many SNP supporters who are voting Green on the list this time. :greengrin I have certainly discussed it with my mates and we are going down that road too. Facebook certainly seems to suggest lots have bought into the 1-2 mantra without thinking how wasted that second vote will be in most regions particularly if the constituencies are going so much towards the SNP

[Hibs90]

What are you suggesting? :wink:

Nothing, nothing at all :greengrin

[CloudSquall]

Is it known where the Alba seat is projected to come in?

If it's Salmond I hope we are given a Vince McMahon type strut into the parliament just to rub salt in unionist wounds.

[CloudSquall]

Tory vote probably is boosted by the Alistair Darling types that hopped over when Davidson made it acceptable for Edinburgh Central to vote for the real thing rather than the diet version.

[hibsbollah]

Loads of young farmer types, the rugger buggers who go for a day out at Kelso races in mustard or pink trews and the misses wears a dead pheasant as a hat.

I'm sure they aren't of a particularly staunch persuasion but would be very much Tory and although very proud of a slightly rose tinted version of Scotland, would be aghast at the thought of independence.


Kelso is the only race meeting I’ve ever been to and you’ve described the clientele perfectly :faf:

[weecounty hibby]

Just watched the latest debate and no-one will be surprised that I think NS once again wins hands down. But surely even the most uniony of unionists must watch these and be terrified that if by some miracle she loses we would have Ross, Sarwar or Rennie😂 in charge.

[Renfrew_Hibby]

If D.Ross was to do an episode of Who do you think you are? we would surely be heading down to Royston Vasey.

Or is that just me?

[Bostonhibby]

If D.Ross was to do an episode of Who do you think you are? we would surely be heading down to Royston Vasey.

Or is that just me?Nope, he could definitely replace Roy Chubby Brown in the role of the Mayor, similar character and politics.

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[Renfrew_Hibby]

Nope, he could definitely replace Roy Chubby Brown in the role of the Mayor, similar character and politics.

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Its more like when you catch him at a certain angle, that squashed in, slightly turned up nose and the lack of any neck.
His daddy is his mummy's brother....

[Bostonhibby]

Its more like when you catch him at a certain angle, that squashed in, slightly turned up nose and the lack of any neck.
His daddy is his mummy's brother....I'm thinking Herr Lipp[emoji16]

https://images.app.goo.gl/Lg32B1y1ytU2KByTA

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[Jones28]

Loads of young farmer types, the rugger buggers who go for a day out at Kelso races in mustard or pink trews and the misses wears a dead pheasant as a hat.

I'm sure they aren't of a particularly staunch persuasion but would be very much Tory and although very proud of a slightly rose tinted version of Scotland, would be aghast at the thought of independence.

They vote Tory because their dads vote Tory because it’s putting more money in their pocket.

An almost line for line quote from the father of the people you’re describing. The borders is rife with it.

[Ozyhibby]

Its more like when you catch him at a certain angle, that squashed in, slightly turned up nose and the lack of any neck.
His daddy is his mummy's brother....

My youngest said his nose made him look like Voldemort.


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[Bostonhibby]

My youngest said his nose made him look like Voldemort.


Sent from my iPhone using TapatalkHe could be right, this looks remarkably like the Scottish Nasty parties dynamic leadership team on the campaign trail.

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[Ozyhibby]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210504/c43993682510d6a002c749e008939411.jpg


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[hibsbollah]

He could be right, this looks remarkably like the Scottish Nasty parties dynamic leadership team on the campaign trail.

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Jamie Greene and Dross.

[The Harp Awakes]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210504/c43993682510d6a002c749e008939411.jpg


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That poll is dreamland for the SNP. Wee Willie would be oot along with monotone Cole Hamilton.

Probably won't happen but that map looks good all the same.

[Ozyhibby]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210505/b97795c14d7a3663ded21f2ad6410196.jpg


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[degenerated]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210505/b97795c14d7a3663ded21f2ad6410196.jpg


Sent from my iPhone using TapatalkWhereas the Scotsman are running with this, god knows how they framed the question this time. They reckon 59 seats for SNP.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210505/ddc81d08a028e8596543e04692086100.jpg

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[Moulin Yarns]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210505/b97795c14d7a3663ded21f2ad6410196.jpg


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My fear in seeing this is voter complacency.

[Ozyhibby]

My fear in seeing this is voter complacency.

It was exactly that in 2016. Hopefully not so this time.


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[Ozyhibby]

Whereas the Scotsman are running with this, god knows how they framed the question this time. They reckon 59 seats for SNP.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210505/ddc81d08a028e8596543e04692086100.jpg

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Probably something like ‘Given the immediate peril a vote for the SNP would put your family in, how do you intend to vote on Thursday?’ [emoji23]


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[hibsbollah]

You wouldn’t know reading the guardian there is a huge election in Scotland tomorrow. It’s all about Hartlepool.

[Santa Cruz]

Probably something like ‘Given the immediate peril a vote for the SNP would put your family in, how do you intend to vote on Thursday?’ [emoji23]


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Or see "Judge me on Education", you know how the FM said there is still work to do, yet they've been in power for 14 years, how do you feel about that, do you believe they'll do the work, will another 5 years be enough, where's that Education Report, reduced class sizes, more permanent teachers etc etc

[JeMeSouviens]

Or see "Judge me on Education", you know how the FM said there is still work to do, yet they've been in power for 14 years, how do you feel about that, do you believe they'll do the work, will another 5 years be enough, where's that Education Report, reduced class sizes, more permanent teachers etc etc

I am not an expert on education but both my kids are early 20s so have been through school/college/uni in SNP times. I also on and off interview for graduate positions, although not for a few years, and am sometimes involved in mentoring. I'd say there are 2 obvious elements to your complaint: policy and resourcing. Resourcing is easy to blame on the UK because we've just been through a decade of full on and then austerity-lite. Policy is all on the SNP.

So, the usual measure of policy "failure" is PISA scores. But you don't have to go far through google to find educationalists complaining about PISA. And educationalists are the root of Scottish education policy, obvs.

I actually quite like the CfE. I'd much rather have graduates without specific subject knowledge that are skilled in going about acquiring what they need to know about a problem than the other way round. My own kids are both (in my unbiased opinion) well equipped for the workplace and I don't think the education system was bad for either of them. Maybe it was the top quality parental input. :greengrin

Summary - I'm not convinced education policy is a failure and there are excuses/mitigation for resourcing. Could it be better? Probably. Is it the unmitigated disaster zone it's made out to be? Definitely not. I think this is where you lose a lot of influence with voters by over-egging the "failure". It just doesn't chime with the experience of most of the public.

[JeMeSouviens]

Scottish parliament voting intention(s):

Constituency:
SNP: 49% (-1)
CON: 21% (-)
LAB: 21% (-)
LDEM: 8% (+1)

List:
SNP: 36% (+2)
CON: 21% (+1)
LAB: 19% (-3)
GRN: 10% (-)
LDEM: 7% (+1)
ALBA: 3% (-)

via @Survation, 30 Apr - 04 May
Chgs. w/ 22 Apr

[JeMeSouviens]

And by far the most Yoon friendly of the last round of polls:

New Scottish Parliament poll, ComRes 30 Apr - 4 May (changes vs 23 - 27 Apr):

SNP: 34% (-2)
Con: 22% (nc)
Lab: 19% (nc)
Grn: 9% (-1)
LD: 6% (+1)
Alba: 2% (nc)

Constituency:
SNP: 42% (-3)
Con: 25% (+2)
Lab: 22% (-1)
LD: 8% (+1)


Expecting MORI later today, and that'll be that for the polling.

[Ozyhibby]

I am not an expert on education but both my kids are early 20s so have been through school/college/uni in SNP times. I also on and off interview for graduate positions, although not for a few years, and am sometimes involved in mentoring. I'd say there are 2 obvious elements to your complaint: policy and resourcing. Resourcing is easy to blame on the UK because we've just been through a decade of full on and then austerity-lite. Policy is all on the SNP.

So, the usual measure of policy "failure" is PISA scores. But you don't have to go far through google to find educationalists complaining about PISA. And educationalists are the root of Scottish education policy, obvs.

I actually quite like the CfE. I'd much rather have graduates without specific subject knowledge that are skilled in going about acquiring what they need to know about a problem than the other way round. My own kids are both (in my unbiased opinion) well equipped for the workplace and I don't think the education system was bad for either of them. Maybe it was the top quality parental input. :greengrin

Summary - I'm not convinced education policy is a failure and there are excuses/mitigation for resourcing. Could it be better? Probably. Is it the unmitigated disaster zone it's made out to be? Definitely not. I think this is where you lose a lot of influence with voters by over-egging the "failure". It just doesn't chime with the experience of most of the public.

Another reason it doesn’t cut through is that when you ask people, they have an idea there is a problem with education because they keep hearing it in the media but when you ask them about their own kids school, they think it’s does a great job and that their kid is happy.


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[Santa Cruz]

I am not an expert on education but both my kids are early 20s so have been through school/college/uni in SNP times. I also on and off interview for graduate positions, although not for a few years, and am sometimes involved in mentoring. I'd say there are 2 obvious elements to your complaint: policy and resourcing. Resourcing is easy to blame on the UK because we've just been through a decade of full on and then austerity-lite. Policy is all on the SNP.

So, the usual measure of policy "failure" is PISA scores. But you don't have to go far through google to find educationalists complaining about PISA. And educationalists are the root of Scottish education policy, obvs.

I actually quite like the CfE. I'd much rather have graduates without specific subject knowledge that are skilled in going about acquiring what they need to know about a problem than the other way round. My own kids are both (in my unbiased opinion) well equipped for the workplace and I don't think the education system was bad for either of them. Maybe it was the top quality parental input. :greengrin

Summary - I'm not convinced education policy is a failure and there are excuses/mitigation for resourcing. Could it be better? Probably. Is it the unmitigated disaster zone it's made out to be? Definitely not. I think this is where you lose a lot of influence with voters by over-egging the "failure". It just doesn't chime with the experience of most of the public.

So basically CfE works for kids with parents who are skilled enough to fill in the gaps that the curriculum misses. Mainly academic. It is very slow paced at Primary level, which is a poor starting point for quicker paced Secondary level. If kids don't learn the basics quicker at Primary they will struggle to catch up at Secondary. For example they are expected to be fully competent in timetables 1-10 by p7, that should be much earlier, probably p5, to enable them to cope with the far more varied subject at Secondary level, without the basics, many struggle. Teaching French and then moving to Spanish at Primary level when they are still trying to learn English is another example. I could understand introducing one foreign language to give them a taster, but two? Go to Secondary and you might get taught a subject in one school but not another. Kids are not given the same opportunities. There is no continuity due to the never ending stream of supply teachers. Could it be better, definitely, even the FM has confirmed there is still work to do.

[Santa Cruz]

Another reason it doesn’t cut through is that when you ask people, they have an idea there is a problem with education because they keep hearing it in the media but when you ask them about their own kids school, they think it’s does a great job and that their kid is happy.


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Yet, you've acknowledged yourself they need to make quick changes to Education. So, you must have identified something your not happy with presumably?

[JeMeSouviens]

So basically CfE works for kids with parents who are skilled enough to fill in the gaps that the curriculum misses. Mainly academic. It is very slow paced at Primary level, which is a poor starting point for quicker paced Secondary level. If kids don't learn the basics quicker at Primary they will struggle to catch up at Secondary. For example they are expected to be fully competent in timetables 1-10 by p7, that should be much earlier, probably p5, to enable them to cope with the far more varied subject at Secondary level, without the basics, many struggle. Teaching French and then moving to Spanish at Primary level when they are still trying to learn English is another example. I could understand introducing one foreign language to give them a taster, but two? Go to Secondary and you might get taught a subject in one school but not another. Kids are not given the same opportunities. There is no continuity due to the never ending stream of supply teachers. Could it be better, definitely, even the FM has confirmed there is still work to do.

Interesting. I tend to agree on the maths but disagree on the languages.

[Hibs Class]

So basically CfE works for kids with parents who are skilled enough to fill in the gaps that the curriculum misses. Mainly academic. It is very slow paced at Primary level, which is a poor starting point for quicker paced Secondary level. If kids don't learn the basics quicker at Primary they will struggle to catch up at Secondary. For example they are expected to be fully competent in timetables 1-10 by p7, that should be much earlier, probably p5, to enable them to cope with the far more varied subject at Secondary level, without the basics, many struggle. Teaching French and then moving to Spanish at Primary level when they are still trying to learn English is another example. I could understand introducing one foreign language to give them a taster, but two? Go to Secondary and you might get taught a subject in one school but not another. Kids are not given the same opportunities. There is no continuity due to the never ending stream of supply teachers. Could it be better, definitely, even the FM has confirmed there is still work to do.

Another consequence of CfE, based on the experience of my children, is that the broad general education continues until the end of S3 at which point the decision on subjects for exams is taken, with a focus not only on nationals but also on highers and advanced highers. I believe the number of subjects that can be taken into S4 varies from school to school (and at times within schools from year to year) but overall the number taken is lower than pre-CfE and this contributes to a drop in the number of pupils taking e.g. humanities, languages and arts in favour of the STEM subjects, with this shift also now evident in university admissions.

[JeMeSouviens]

Another consequence of CfE, based on the experience of my children, is that the broad general education continues until the end of S3 at which point the decision on subjects for exams is taken, with a focus not only on nationals but also on highers and advanced highers. I believe the number of subjects that can be taken into S4 varies from school to school (and at times within schools from year to year) but overall the number taken is lower than pre-CfE and this contributes to a drop in the number of pupils taking e.g. humanities, languages and arts in favour of the STEM subjects, with this shift also now evident in university admissions.

Do you think this is a good or bad thing? I think you can argue it both ways. Kids should do what they're motivated by, society needs arts etc. Otoh, the future of our economy should absolutely be pinned on tech, and the more innovation the better.