I fancy Leicester to win tonight. Newcastle have only won 2 of 16 premier league away games this season. Leicester beat them 2-0 at St James' Park earlier in the season and I think it will be the same scoreline tonight.This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
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Thread: Another betting thread?
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12-04-2019 04:01 PM #31
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12-04-2019 04:15 PM #32This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
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12-04-2019 04:16 PM #33This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show QuotePM Awards General Poster of The Year 2015, 2016, 2017. Probably robbed in other years
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12-04-2019 04:20 PM #34
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12-04-2019 04:24 PM #35This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
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12-04-2019 04:25 PM #36
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12-04-2019 04:32 PM #37This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
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12-04-2019 04:38 PM #38
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Handicaps
wrong going/ground
Second legs of cup games
Draws
Accumulators and lots more
I have a full time job and whilst my betting is showing profit after decades of losses I'm not treating it as a job. Although when I retire I may well put in far more work. I'm not a great lover of stats. Recent form, fitness, breeding, injuries etc. are more important. I think it's possible to make a few bob by learning from your mistakes. Discipline is everythingLast edited by Bangkok Hibby; 12-04-2019 at 04:48 PM.
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12-04-2019 05:26 PM #39
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My latest p&l for the last 7 days shows a profit of £450."Play for the name on the front of the jersey and the supporters will remember the name on the back"
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12-04-2019 06:19 PM #40
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Leicester vs Newcastle
Over 1.5 goals
5+ Leicester corners
3+ Newcastle corners
1+ booking for each team
9/4 with Skybet.
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12-04-2019 06:20 PM #41
Vintage clouds has a shot tomorrow in the Scottish national. Good horse although it fell last week , 10/1 is decent.
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12-04-2019 07:27 PM #42
I'm not a gambler at all, I did the match betting thing maybe 2 years ago and made approx £600 but that's just using the bookies offers/betting exchange, and then closed all the various bookie accounts afterwards.
Regarding accumulator bets it doesn't need saying that people are largely throwing a fiver here a tenner there into the bookies pockets, and sooner or later another "999BET.com" online site will appear.
Football accum bet chances if each match had level odds.
Single - 1 in 3
Double - 1 in 9
Treble - 1 in 27
4 team - 1 in 81
5 team - 1 in 243
6 team - 1 in 729
7 team - 1 in 2,187
8 team - 1 in 6,561
9 team - 1 in 19,683
One of my mates has a gambling problem I am fairly certain, but he still lives with his folks so he can afford it lol
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12-04-2019 08:54 PM #43
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12-04-2019 10:29 PM #44
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12-04-2019 10:42 PM #45
I done matched betting gets a sore head after first while trying to get offers
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13-04-2019 03:38 AM #46This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show QuoteHIBERNIAN FC - ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF HISTORY SINCE 1875
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13-04-2019 04:11 AM #47
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13-04-2019 04:16 AM #48This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show QuoteHIBERNIAN FC - ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF HISTORY SINCE 1875
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13-04-2019 06:59 AM #49
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Thoughts on Leicester v Newcastle
It seemed to me anyway that Leicester were not the "nailed on" certainties that some thought. I wasn't as sure as I could be of a win so the money stayed in my account, that's a result and one of the first and most important lessons to learn. YOU DON'T NEED TO HAVE A BET. That's a great weapon in the tussle with the bookies. The game last night was the only one in England and also televised so there was always going to be a rush to get bets on this particular game.
Remember YOU DON'T NEED TO HAVE A BET
Secondly, as there wasn't a great deal to choose from, this game attracted lots of half time/full time bets or even worse "win both halves" bets. This is the classic "I need a better price" syndrome. You are effectively turning a single bet into a double where two outcomes are required. There were many people who fancied Chelsea the other night but because they wanted a little bit more money returned they went for these type of bets. The outcome...Chelsea, who they fancied to win, did indeed win but they did their cash through falling into the trap of looking for better prices.
I see it all the time with people at work. They'll go online, pick out two or three teams they think will win but when they see a return of maybe 100/30 or 9/2 for example they think "not enough" and add another couple of teams, solely to boost the price.
Earlier on, "Scorrie" told us no profit is too small. Excellent quote. If you've made your choice and are willing to put money down to back that choice up then stick with it. Looking for a bigger return inevitably leads to losing.
I hope nobody sees this as patronising or condescending (never really understood the difference so take your pick) The purpose of this thread was to advise/give thoughts/maybe help others. Anyway as I said, just my thoughts.
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13-04-2019 07:08 AM #50
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Can I ask what your thoughts are on breeding. I'll only bet in Group/Grade races so I can be assured (as much as anyone can) that the horses are of decent stock and (should) all be trying.
Horses are naturally pack animals and have leaders and followers. Could this explain why some have a string of seconds and thirds to their name? They are followers, and those who battle to the line are leaders? Maybe these traits are bred out of the line over generations? It's something I'd like to learn more about.
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13-04-2019 07:18 AM #51This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
I should I also have those three to win FT as part of a larger accumulator - hedging my betsLast edited by Hibernia&Alba; 13-04-2019 at 07:24 AM.
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13-04-2019 07:27 AM #52
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I'm not trying to tell people how to bet but just pointing out a few relevant facts. As today, the treble you fancy to win has effectively now become a six outcome accumulator with odds of just over 2/1. I know you know that!
Hope it comes in for you. Good luck
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13-04-2019 07:32 AM #53This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show QuoteHIBERNIAN FC - ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF HISTORY SINCE 1875
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13-04-2019 08:06 AM #54
[QUOTE=EskbankHibby;5763471]With this in mind I would say that I steer clear of multi team accumulators nowadays, that's my biggest lesson learned over the last year or so.
Singles and doubles only, I stick to this fairly rigidly now. Broke that rule last week with a treble and let down by the shortest odds team, irritating but reinforced the need for discipline.[/QUOTE
Never bet anything shorter than 1\2 and that is probably still too short. Bookies love a Celtic Man City or Liverpool draw when they were between 1/7 or even seen City at 1\25 leave them well alone.
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13-04-2019 08:53 AM #55
Another tip I would give from bitter experience is don't bet on matches from leagues you aren't familiar with, just because the odds look good. This is very true of Scandinavian football, for example, where the teams tend to be quite well matched. Just because a side is a short odds favourite, don't take that as a banker. Do your homework first: form, league table etc.
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13-04-2019 09:05 AM #57
Always put different teams in each acca no matter how strong you think a selection is as one wrong un can drag all your accas down
Basic I know!
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13-04-2019 09:05 AM #58
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I come at it from a different angle (and I suspect many other "fun" gamblers do too) where to me it's a form of entertainment, and the money I spend I view like paying for a sky subscription or a cinema ticket or whatever - it's the cost of that entertainment. So if I stick a quid on a ridiculous combination of corners / cards / goals / player to score etc I have low expectations of actually winning (especially on those types of bet which are basically just free money for the bookies) but it makes watching a match I would otherwise have no interest in really quite entertaining. Same goes for accas - 7 match over 2.5 goals accas are terrible value but they're fun if you start getting a few in and are holding out for a goal or two in the last five minutes. That doesn't mean I'm setting out to lose obviously and it's nice when the occasional glory bet comes in but that's very much a hope rather than an expectation.
So whilst it might look silly to you that work colleagues are adding extra selections to build a glory acca, it's perfectly possible that they're also looking at you and saying "look at that dafty trying to beat the bookies with a bunch of boring bets"!
My little tale of woe from the other night - I had a Lucky Fifteen on four correct scores on Wednesday night (£3 to return £1700 if they all came in) and in to injury time three were on track for a return of £199.80. I was sitting looking at the cash out at £150 debating whether to press the button when Reading scored 6 minutes and 20 seconds in to 6 minutes of injury time to scupper it and drop the returns to £19.80. So that's either a salutary lesson in how daft multiple bets are, or it shows you how much fun you can have for 3 quid - it's all a matter of perspective!
ps I'll still follow this thread as the sensible advice is appreciated - however I'll undoubtedly take sensible selections and put them into bonkers accas...
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13-04-2019 09:06 AM #59
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13-04-2019 09:06 AM #60
I actually find the English leagues a nightmare. Everyone beats everyone, much harder to predict.
I like sooccerstats for a quick bit of research, you can see the last 6 games form in an instant.
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