Hamas attack on Israel

[Ozyhibby]

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Never sure about things like this.

Killing the head just reinforces the cause, no? The guy himself will be martyred, and someone else will step up.

Wasn’t just the head. Sounds like it was their whole leadership who had convened a meeting that the Israelis knew about.
Will be interesting to see what the Iranians do. They desperately don’t want a war with Isreal but can’t be seen to turn their back on this again.
There will be people in Lebanon happy with this as well. They don’t serve the whole population.


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[The Tubs]

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Lots of reports of hezbollah fighters being attacked by Sunni and Druze people when fleeing north. You forget how much of a separated country it is and how incompetent Britain was when dividing up countries on maps without a care for sectarianism

While I love sticking the boot into Britain, is it not the case that France inherited Lebanon from the Ottoman Empire at the end of WWI? Additionally, when it comes to the Levant in general, due to different ethnicities living in close proximity over centuries, I don't think it would have ever been as easy as putting lines in the appropriate places.

[Paul1642]

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Never sure about things like this.

Killing the head just reinforces the cause, no? The guy himself will be martyred, and someone else will step up.

I guess it’s completely situational. Killing Putin for example would quite likely be a catalyst for peace or Russian civil war.

Between the pager explosions (which I’m still in absolute awe at) and taking out not only the Hezbollah leader, but potentially a whole lot of their top brass in one move, the Israelis have played an absolute blinder IMO. They have effectively crippled their enemy without a ground invasion. The Iranians should really be taking note and adapting fast because any restraint that Isreal might be showing with Lebanon up until now, won’t be afforded to Iran if all out war the decision.

[AgentDaleCooper]

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Lots of reports the head of Hezbollah has been killed. Let’s hope so.


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i honestly think it's mental that anyone can a) predict what the fallout of that would be and b) think they can speak on behalf of others, thousands of miles away. Bill Burr's appearance on Bill Maher's podcast is worth a watch.

[AgentDaleCooper]

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I guess it’s completely situational. Killing Putin for example would quite likely be a catalyst for peace or Russian civil war.

Between the pager explosions (which I’m still in absolute awe at) and taking out not only the Hezbollah leader, but potentially a whole lot of their top brass in one move, the Israelis have played an absolute blinder IMO. They have effectively crippled their enemy without a ground invasion. The Iranians should really be taking note and adapting fast because any restraint that Isreal might be showing with Lebanon up until now, won’t be afforded to Iran if all out war the decision.

it's so, so, so insanely problematic using this language. did Hamas not play a blinder in October too? they got the world's attention back on Gaza. But saying they played a 'blinder' would not go down well here, i imagine, and sort of rightly so, because describing any kind of murder like that is just warped.

one might ignore the fact that Mossad managed to take out a fare few kids in Lebanon with the pagers, but even so, the attack is an absolutely colossal breach of all kinds of international laws. it's a war crime, and it is absolutely terrorism. marvelling at the execution of the plot is nothing more that military fetishism.

[Stairway 2 7]

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it's so, so, so insanely problematic using this language. did Hamas not play a blinder in October too? they got the world's attention back on Gaza. But saying they played a 'blinder' would not go down well here, i imagine, and sort of rightly so, because describing any kind of murder like that is just warped.

one might ignore the fact that Mossad managed to take out a fare few kids in Lebanon with the pagers, but even so, the attack is an absolutely colossal breach of all kinds of international laws. it's a war crime, and it is absolutely terrorism. marvelling at the execution of the plot is nothing more that military fetishism.

I don't agree with the pagers as although it was only hezbollah top brass that had a pager some could have had their kids in their arms. It can't be denied that it's very targeted though.

The point of war is to kill the enemy with as minimal civilian deaths as possible, although obviously there will always be civilian casualties and that can't be helped. I've no problem with bombs like yesterday being gps targeted to take out hezbollah leadership, even if there is some unintended casualties. I am obviously against the carpet bombing and untargeted flattening of Gaza.

To compare the pager attack to october 7th is ridiculous though. Hezbollah themselves said something like 50 hezbollah deaths and 3 civilians as well as around 500 hezbollah operatives severely injured. I don't agree with it but it was totally targeted. October the 7th was targeted at civilians. A few soldiers died but thousands of civilians murdered most from point blank range. Kids dancing at a festival, people waiting for the bus, people hiding in rooms. If on october 7th the crossed the border and all went to kill military personnel or targeted barracks I'd say it was fair

[Paul1642]

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it's so, so, so insanely problematic using this language. did Hamas not play a blinder in October too? they got the world's attention back on Gaza. But saying they played a 'blinder' would not go down well here, i imagine, and sort of rightly so, because describing any kind of murder like that is just warped.

one might ignore the fact that Mossad managed to take out a fare few kids in Lebanon with the pagers, but even so, the attack is an absolutely colossal breach of all kinds of international laws. it's a war crime, and it is absolutely terrorism. marvelling at the execution of the plot is nothing more that military fetishism.

No side taking of military favouritism here. I just think thank that wiping out your enemy’s chain of command and their communication network in the space of a week or so without a ground offensive is pretty much unheard off.

[Itsnoteasy]

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No side taking of military favouritism here. I just think thank that wiping out your enemy’s chain of command and their communication network in the space of a week or so without a ground offensive is pretty much unheard off.

So what your trying to say is they played a blinder.

[Stairway 2 7]

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So what your trying to say is they played a blinder.

Yeah I was in shock at how they pulled it off, setting up companies years in advanced. Probably the most successful spy operation ever. Horrible army's like the Nazis or the UK in India can have amazing military operations, doesn't make them not horrendous.

Operation Greif by the Nazis was amazing. Soldiers dressed in US uniforms flew in behind enemy lines and caused havoc. They started directing tanks convoys down wrong roads, destroyed ammunition dumps, switched road signs and cut electric and phone lines. When it was uncovered the US had to use a lot of men to set up road blocks all over. The more famous operation mincemeat was cool too

[Hibs4185]

Not expressing any view on the rights or wrongs of the situation but Iran and Hezbollah would be mental to try and start something.

Israel wiped out the whole command of Hezbollah in a few days.

Iran attacked Israel a few months ago with missiles and drones. A high percentage were destroyed in flight and the couple that got through, the Israeli’s allowed through because they were missing their target.

A ceasefire is everyone’s interests

[Ozyhibby]

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Not expressing any view on the rights or wrongs of the situation but Iran and Hezbollah would be mental to try and start something.

Israel wiped out the whole command of Hezbollah in a few days.

Iran attacked Israel a few months ago with missiles and drones. A high percentage were destroyed in flight and the couple that got through, the Israeli’s allowed through because they were missing their target.

A ceasefire is everyone’s interests

I don’t think Isreal is interested in anything other than the destruction of Hezbollah. If the Iranians get involved then so be it but they want them gone from Lebanon. That would be good for both countries.
Iran will feel they need to respond but they know they face a wipeout if they go too far. I suspect they will send some slow flying drones that are easily taken care of and Isreal will go all out to rid Lebanon of Hezbollah. Iranians really don’t want this fight.
I don’t think a ceasefire is in Israel’s interest. One in Gaza is now but it takes two to tango there.


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[Ozyhibby]

Really quite a devastating couple of weeks for Hezbollah.


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[Paul1642]

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Really quite a devastating couple of weeks for Hezbollah.


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Abu Ali Rida can’t be getting much sleep.

[cabbageandribs1875]

good Nasrallah taken out, no more threatening Lebanon's Christians from him

[DaveF]

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Abu Ali Rida can’t be getting much sleep.

Maybe he's been feeding info to Israel and just happened to miss the meeting.

[Ozyhibby]

https://x.com/simonmontefiore/status...dxJXScFNwz8V4A

Good article from Mathew Syed as usual. Doesn’t appear to be behind the paywall.


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[Ozyhibby]

https://x.com/simonmontefiore/status...dxJXScFNwz8V4A


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[CropleyWasGod]

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Wasn’t just the head. Sounds like it was their whole leadership who had convened a meeting that the Israelis knew about.
Will be interesting to see what the Iranians do. They desperately don’t want a war with Isreal but can’t be seen to turn their back on this again.
There will be people in Lebanon happy with this as well. They don’t serve the whole population.


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I realise that now.

[Hibs4185]

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https://x.com/simonmontefiore/status...dxJXScFNwz8V4A

Good article from Mathew Syed as usual. Doesn’t appear to be behind the paywall.


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Excellent article and perfectly sums it up, thanks for sharing

[AgentDaleCooper]

I mean, if you want to take your moral guidance from the Murdoch press then fine - but this kind of approach relies on deciding which facts matter and which don't, then basically obscuring the ones the 'don't matter' with reasons. Another term for this is 'moral splitting'. When you decide that a whole bunch of facts don't matter, they and their emergent properties creep up on you. The most obvious example of this is the climate crisis, but our history in foreign affairs is littered with this kind of self regarding thought. It's why throwing around words like 'evil' is just utterly meaningless - it comes from a place of self regarding denial.

[overdrive]

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Maybe he's been feeding info to Israel and just happened to miss the meeting.

Yep that was my thought too. Somebody must have been feeding Israel info. Even if he hasn’t been feeding them stuff, you’d have to be worried if you were him as potentially both sides might want him dead now.

[AgentDaleCooper]

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Excellent article and perfectly sums it up, thanks for sharing

it's an absolutely idiotic article.

basically, it says 'there's no room for shades of grey, you've got to swallow them and pick a side'.

with Russia, I get it - if they're not stopped, where will they stop?

...but where would Israel stop? There are a LOT of elements in the country that would like to see it expand. It has certainly tried to before. They are a self-described settler-colonial power, and they actually think (correctly) that it's hypocritical of the west to criticise them for this. They are right next to the single most important shipping lane on the planet...if Putin can't be trusten not to wade further into Europe, why isn't Netanyahu going to try to grab Sinai, not to mention the Golan Heights - he's stood in front of maps that included bits of Jordan in Israel as well, IIRC.

There is one reason they have all these weapons pointed at them, and it's f****ng US. Israel is a problem created by the west, for the west. I'm sure you'll have seen what Biden had to say on the matter in the 80s, words to the effect of "if we didn't have an Israel in the Middle East we'd need to make one to defend our interests in the region', before going on to describe it as 'the best investment in foreign affairs the US ever made' (I think it was regarding the military aid being given to Israel support or something).

Israel was designed to be 'a little Ulster' - the Black and Tans were literally enlisted to help set it up.

A lot of Jewish people I know feel it could have been very different, if less land had been taken from the Palestinians in the first place. The whole project morphed from giving the Jewish people a place to be safe from turning an incredibly traumatized people into attack dogs for colonial powers. Furthermore, it naturally turned the surrounding countries against Jewish people native to Iraq, Syria, Iran etc., who were all forced to leave to Israel for their own safety, when previously they had been living pretty peacefully.

The fact is, regardless of how 'cool' the pagers were, it's a war crime, and a pretty terrifying precedent. There's a word for that kind of act...oh yeah, terrorism. But it's cool terrorism, perpetrated by white people who espouse liberal values towards other white people, and it's surgical, so we'll put the genocide in Gaza to one side for a sec and applaud them for doing this whilst minimising civilian casualties...like they actually give a toss about that.

If you honestly can't see that the 'moral steel' that you are fostering is in defence of the thing that has created this problem (colonial liberal capitalism) then...I don't bloody know.


The question of 'pick a side' between Hezbollah and Netenyahu is absolutely ridiculous. The only solution, albeit a difficult one, is for the west to stop arming Israel until it completely stops every illegal activity towards Palestinians, changes its government, and starts a genuine peace and reconciliation process. It's what we're going to expect of Russia.

[Ozyhibby]

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it's an absolutely idiotic article.

basically, it says 'there's no room for shades of grey, you've got to swallow them and pick a side'.

with Russia, I get it - if they're not stopped, where will they stop?

...but where would Israel stop? There are a LOT of elements in the country that would like to see it expand. It has certainly tried to before. They are a self-described settler-colonial power, and they actually think (correctly) that it's hypocritical of the west to criticise them for this. They are right next to the single most important shipping lane on the planet...if Putin can't be trusten not to wade further into Europe, why isn't Netanyahu going to try to grab Sinai, not to mention the Golan Heights - he's stood in front of maps that included bits of Jordan in Israel as well, IIRC.

There is one reason they have all these weapons pointed at them, and it's f****ng US. Israel is a problem created by the west, for the west. I'm sure you'll have seen what Biden had to say on the matter in the 80s, words to the effect of "if we didn't have an Israel in the Middle East we'd need to make one to defend our interests in the region', before going on to describe it as 'the best investment in foreign affairs the US ever made' (I think it was regarding the military aid being given to Israel support or something).

Israel was designed to be 'a little Ulster' - the Black and Tans were literally enlisted to help set it up.

A lot of Jewish people I know feel it could have been very different, if less land had been taken from the Palestinians in the first place. The whole project morphed from giving the Jewish people a place to be safe from turning an incredibly traumatized people into attack dogs for colonial powers. Furthermore, it naturally turned the surrounding countries against Jewish people native to Iraq, Syria, Iran etc., who were all forced to leave to Israel for their own safety, when previously they had been living pretty peacefully.

The fact is, regardless of how 'cool' the pagers were, it's a war crime, and a pretty terrifying precedent. There's a word for that kind of act...oh yeah, terrorism. But it's cool terrorism, perpetrated by white people who espouse liberal values towards other white people, and it's surgical, so we'll put the genocide in Gaza to one side for a sec and applaud them for doing this whilst minimising civilian casualties...like they actually give a toss about that.

If you honestly can't see that the 'moral steel' that you are fostering is in defence of the thing that has created this problem (colonial liberal capitalism) then...I don't bloody know.


The question of 'pick a side' between Hezbollah and Netenyahu is absolutely ridiculous. The only solution, albeit a difficult one, is for the west to stop arming Israel until it completely stops every illegal activity towards Palestinians, changes its government, and starts a genuine peace and reconciliation process. It's what we're going to expect of Russia.

I can abhor what Isreal do in the West Bank or Gaza at the same time as hoping they prevail against Iran.


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[AgentDaleCooper]

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I can abhor what Isreal do in the West Bank or Gaza at the same time as hoping they prevail against Iran.


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I know you can, but it's incredibly reductive and really isn't part of the solution - Israel needs to back the absolute **** down before it and the west see their chickens come home to roost, which would be a humanitarian disaster on a scale that doesn't bare thinking about (the victims of which would be, in the vast majority, completely innocent, well meaning and peace seeking Israelis and Arabs). Europe and America created this problem, and the last thing the situation needs is cheerleaders in the west. It needs measured de-escalation. Arming Israel to fight Iran without very, very strict conditions would potentially be just as catastrophic. If the west is some kind of moral authority (which it isn't), then it's time to step up and stop enabling genocidal fascists. Anything else is a disaster.

[Kato]

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I know you can, but it's incredibly reductive and really isn't part of the solution - Israel needs to back the absolute **** down before it and the west see their chickens come home to roost, which would be a humanitarian disaster on a scale that doesn't bare thinking about (the victims of which would be, in the vast majority, completely innocent, well meaning and peace seeking Israelis and Arabs). Europe and America created this problem, and the last thing the situation needs is cheerleaders in the west. It needs measured de-escalation. Arming Israel to fight Iran without very, very strict conditions would potentially be just as catastrophic. If the west truly is some kind of moral authority (which it really isn't), then it's time to step up and stop enabling genocidal fascists. Anything else is a disaster.

The last chapter shows what the article is. Tub thumping for a large scale war. Which will probably happen.

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[Stairway 2 7]

The people who blame everything on Iran are as daft as the people who blame everything on the West. It's no a football game or good guys and bad guys. Multiple groups are wanting and pushing violence. In saying that Iran doesn't want a war its just seen two of its proxies decimated. I can't see any wider war it's more likely deals will be done and capitalism will keep on turning. Just as Russia will be welcomed back in as soon as a deal is brokered.

[AgentDaleCooper]

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The people who blame everything on Iran are as daft as the people who blame everything on the West. It's no a football game or good guys and bad guys. Multiple groups are wanting and pushing violence. In saying that Iran doesn't want a war its just seen two of its proxies decimated. I can't see any wider war it's more likely deals will be done and capitalism will keep on turning. Just as Russia will be welcomed back in as soon as a deal is brokered.

Probably right...apocalypse avoided, onwards with technofeudalism...

[Sylar]

Iran 'imminently' to launch a direct ballistic missile attack on Israel, according to the US.

[Stairway 2 7]

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Iran 'imminently' to launch a direct ballistic missile attack on Israel, according to the US.

Seems a bit bizarre they would have this much warning. Plenty time to get army staff safe and the f35s in the sky to take the missles out. Isn't the point of ballistic missles that they have great speed so you can surprise defences and you don't knowthe target.


@visegrad24
·
12m
BREAKING:

The New York Times reports that Israeli officials believe the Islamic Regime in Iran will launch an attack against 3 Israeli military bases and an intelligence headquarters north of Tel Aviv.

They believe the attack is coming within the next 12 hours

[Ryan91]

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Seems a bit bizarre they would have this much warning. Plenty time to get army staff safe and the f35s in the sky to take the missles out. Isn't the point of ballistic missles that they have great speed so you can surprise defences and you don't knowthe target.


@visegrad24
·
12m
BREAKING:

The New York Times reports that Israeli officials believe the Islamic Regime in Iran will launch an attack against 3 Israeli military bases and an intelligence headquarters north of Tel Aviv.

They believe the attack is coming within the next 12 hours

Perhaps this is just a case of Iran showing it has the ability to strike Israel, and that if it escalates further Iran will launch one without forewarning?

Or it could be the US showing it has intelligence assets at a high level within the Iranian military command structure and that this strike won't accomplish anything for Iran as Israel will just remove anything valuable from those sites