The rise of the far right in Germany

[Keith_M]

Today is the 'Landtagswahlen', or State Elections, in two of the former East German states, Thüringen and Sachsen*.

Sadly the voting so far has the far right 'Alternative für Deutschland' (AFD) on 30%+ of the vote, and most likely to win in Thüringen.


As someone who loves Germany and has links with the former east, this is a very sad day for me. I've been watching TV interviews with voters in both states and the common theme is immigrants/foreigners (sound familiar?)

The AFD purposely appeals to anti-immigrant views, much like the Fidesz party in Hungary, 'Reform' here in the UK and Donald Trump's Republicans. It's sad that politics of this kind are now drawing in disaffected voters in so many countries... willing to believe that immigration is the cause of so many of their problems.

I don't know what the solution is to this but we need to start looking to find one, or things will keep turning for the worse.



* Or Thuringia and Saxony, as we call them over here.

[Stairway 2 7]

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Today is the 'Landtagswahlen', or State Elections, in two of the former East German states, Thüringen and Sachsen*.

Sadly the voting so far has the far right 'Alternative für Deutschland' (AFD) on 30%+ of the vote, and most likely to win in Thüringen.


As someone who loves Germany and has links with the former east, this is a very sad day for me. I've been watching TV interviews with voters in both states and the common theme is immigrants/foreigners (sound familiar?)

The AFD purposely appeals to anti-immigrant views, much like the Fidesz party in Hungary, 'Reform' here in the UK and Donald Trump's Republicans. It's sad that politics of this kind are now drawing in disaffected voters in so many countries... willing to believe that immigration is the cause of so many of their problems.

I don't now what the solution is to this but we need to start looking to find one, or things will keep turning for the worse.



* Or Thuringia and Saxony, as we call them over here.

Perfect storm of a terrible economy that's just went into recession, large immigration and a terrible stabbing the other week. Thankfully no one will work with the **** bags in coalition I don't think. CDU doing well all but confirms them being in control after the next election imo

[Hibrandenburg]

Like Reform/UKIP/Tories in the UK, the AfD have pitched an agenda at racists and are reaping the rewards. The difference between Germany and the UK however is clear, more than 66% of the population outright reject fascist policy and we won't see the likes of what we witnessed in the UK where a fascist government swept to power in a landslide victory. The AfD's power base is in the former East and I doubt very much that they will win substantial support or at least enough support in the former West to gain any significant power in government. I can't see Germany's equivalent of the Red Wall suddenly turning brown so main stream parties will still hold the balance of power.

Germany's economy is currently in decline, but as a country that manufactures and exports, that's no real surprise considering many of the countries they export to are also suffering economical challenges. Despite the current decline, Germany needs immigration and those regions that fail to attract immigrants will suffer the most. Paradoxically, those regions that have strongly supported the AfD, are those with the most migration to other parts of Germany and simultaneously the regions with the least migration, but we see that paradox in the UK too.

That said, Germany has to find a balance between an open door policy which they have had up until now and what is strengthening the hand of the far right, and that what the far right demand. Germany has been a soft touch for criminal migrants but that appears to be changing, deportation of criminal migrants have resumed this week and there's been a clamp down on false asylum claims after several high profile cases of asylum seekers taking vacations in the countries they're supposed to be fleeing for their lives.

Maybe giving the far right a chance in government is even the answer to Germany's far right problem, we saw what happened to Johnson's far right government and there's no reason to believe that the AfD would be any more competent than them, once you scratch below the surface of the AfD, you'll find a mixed soup of nazis, religious bigots, Reichsbürger and capitalist extremists. They'd last maximum one term in office before eating themselves alive.

[AgentDaleCooper]

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Like Reform/UKIP/Tories in the UK, the AfD have pitched an agenda at racists and are reaping the rewards. The difference between Germany and the UK however is clear, more than 66% of the population outright reject fascist policy and we won't see the likes of what we witnessed in the UK where a fascist government swept to power in a landslide victory. The AfD's power base is in the former East and I doubt very much that they will win substantial support or at least enough support in the former West to gain any significant power in government. I can't see Germany's equivalent of the Red Wall suddenly turning brown so main stream parties will still hold the balance of power.

Germany's economy is currently in decline, but as a country that manufactures and exports, that's no real surprise considering many of the countries they export to are also suffering economical challenges. Despite the current decline, Germany needs immigration and those regions that fail to attract immigrants will suffer the most. Paradoxically, those regions that have strongly supported the AfD, are those with the most migration to other parts of Germany and simultaneously the regions with the least migration, but we see that paradox in the UK too.

That said, Germany has to find a balance between an open door policy which they have had up until now and what is strengthening the hand of the far right, and that what the far right demand. Germany has been a soft touch for criminal migrants but that appears to be changing, deportation of criminal migrants have resumed this week and there's been a clamp down on false asylum claims after several high profile cases of asylum seekers taking vacations in the countries they're supposed to be fleeing for their lives.

Maybe giving the far right a chance in government is even the answer to Germany's far right problem, we saw what happened to Johnson's far right government and there's no reason to believe that the AfD would be any more competent than them, once you scratch below the surface of the AfD, you'll find a mixed soup of nazis, religious bigots, Reichsbürger and capitalist extremists. They'd last maximum one term in office before eating themselves alive.

I think that's a gross over-simplification. The died-in-the-wool racists will be in there, but it's much more significantly to do with the failure of the left to represent these people and make the right arguments about what is causing all of the problems we have - or when they do make those arguments, they chicken out on delivering, like Syriza in Greece, because the centre-right lures them into compromising. What's worse is that the centre-left has drifted so far to the right, they'll soon be getting outflanked to the left on economic policies by folk like Reform and AfD, as the space is waiting to be taken.

[Hibrandenburg]

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I think that's a gross over-simplification. The died-in-the-wool racists will be in there, but it's much more significantly to do with the failure of the left to represent these people and make the right arguments about what is causing all of the problems we have - or when they do make those arguments, they chicken out on delivering, like Syriza in Greece, because the centre-right lures them into compromising. What's worse is that the centre-left has drifted so far to the right, they'll soon be getting outflanked to the left on economic policies by folk like Reform and AfD, as the space is waiting to be taken.

I believe there are both simple and complicated reasons people vote for far right parties. There's a wide spectrum of racists out there, from your frothing at the mouth nazi to to grandpa who just doesn't feel comfortable amongst foreigners. There's a hell of a lot of votes to be had from that demographic if you can push the right buttons.

[AgentDaleCooper]

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I believe there are both simple and complicated reasons people vote for far right parties. There's a wide spectrum of racists out there, from your frothing at the mouth nazi to to grandpa who just doesn't feel comfortable amongst foreigners. There's a hell of a lot of votes to be had from that demographic if you can push the right buttons.

I don't disagree (also, 'gross oversimplification' was arguably a bit strong, ironically)...I just don't think that treating them all as racists gets very far, as it just forces things down into the abyss of identity politics, when we should be talking about economics and the climate, not where people come from.

[lapsedhibee]

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I believe there are both simple and complicated reasons people vote for far right parties. There's a wide spectrum of racists out there, from your frothing at the mouth nazi to to grandpa who just doesn't feel comfortable amongst foreigners. There's a hell of a lot of votes to be had from that demographic if you can push the right buttons.

Is that fair? Some foreigners would have been trying to kill the grandpas of many people on this board in the early part of their lives, so there's almost bound to be a bit of diffidence about foreigners there, but people who are becoming grandpas now (also many people on this board) will not have that outlook. The g-word to describe that demographic is surely gullible, rather than grandpa?

[Keith_M]

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...
Maybe giving the far right a chance in government is even the answer to Germany's far right problem, we saw what happened to Johnson's far right government and there's no reason to believe that the AfD would be any more competent than them, once you scratch below the surface of the AfD, you'll find a mixed soup of nazis, religious bigots, Reichsbürger and capitalist extremists. They'd last maximum one term in office before eating themselves alive.

That was my wife's feelings about this as well. Let them show what they can... or more likely cannot... do and people will soon see they're just a sham and have no real answers.


Interestingly, the AFD were much more successful in the rural areas in Sachsen, while the urban areas were mostly CDU, or even Greens.

Would be interesting to find out why that was the case.

[Keith_M]

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I don't disagree (also, 'gross oversimplification' was arguably a bit strong, ironically)...I just don't think that treating them all as racists gets very far, as it just forces things down into the abyss of identity politics, when we should be talking about economics and the climate, not where people come from.

Have to agree. I get the feeling that a large number of people are drawn to these kind of parties because they feel ignored by mainstream politicians.

I'm not saying I agree with their views, but think it's very dangerous to just dismiss 'concerns' of large swathes of the population. That's playing into the hands of the extremists.

[Kato]

Billionaires and billionaire media barons and their tools pushing people apart, putting a noose around any conversation involving them.

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[Ozyhibby]

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That was my wife's feelings about this as well. Let them show what they can... or more likely cannot... do and people will soon see they're just a sham and have no real answers.


Interestingly, the AFD were much more successful in the rural areas in Sachsen, while the urban areas were mostly CDU, or even Greens.

Would be interesting to find out why that was the case.

That’s the same everywhere isn’t it?
City people don’t really fear immigration and rural people do?
I always assume that the people who live beside migrants in the cities are used to it and rural people are afraid of the unknown and different. They think they don’t like what the cities have become.


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[Hibrandenburg]

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I don't disagree (also, 'gross oversimplification' was arguably a bit strong, ironically)...I just don't think that treating them all as racists gets very far, as it just forces things down into the abyss of identity politics, when we should be talking about economics and the climate, not where people come from.

I'm not sure your average far right voter even thinks about economics or climate, if they did then once they scratched below the surface of parties like the AfD and Reform, then they'd find climate change denial. The far right offer simple solutions to complicated problems and their main message is that foreigners are bad, saying that people vote for far right parties for reasons other than xenophobic ones doesn't hold up, either these people who vote for them are gullible (I've avoided saying stupid) or they're racist or at least willing to accept racist values.

[Hibrandenburg]

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Is that fair? Some foreigners would have been trying to kill the grandpas of many people on this board in the early part of their lives, so there's almost bound to be a bit of diffidence about foreigners there, but people who are becoming grandpas now (also many people on this board) will not have that outlook. The g-word to describe that demographic is surely gullible, rather than grandpa?

I'm not sure of your point, most people who are alive today have never had to experience war. Am I to understand that you think some forms of xenophobia are OK because of past personal experiences?

[lapsedhibee]

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I'm not sure of your point, most people who are alive today have never had to experience war. Am I to understand that you think some forms of xenophobia are OK because of past personal experiences?

I've probably misunderstood your original point about grandpas. One of my own grandfathers' first experience of being in a foreign country was as a 16-year old in Belgium in the early part of WWI. He never went back. Not a xenophobe, but I'm not confident he would have voted against Brexit, and I wouldn't be that quick to condemn him for it.

As you suggest, people who took part in WWI and WWII have died out now. I didn't understand why you were mentioning grandpas in the context of racism. Seemed a bit harsh on grandpas (most of whom are surely now not at all racist?) in general.

[AgentDaleCooper]

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I've probably misunderstood your original point about grandpas. One of my own grandfathers' first experience of being in a foreign country was as a 16-year old in Belgium in the early part of WWI. He never went back. Not a xenophobe, but I'm not confident he would have voted against Brexit, and I wouldn't be that quick to condemn him for it.

As you suggest, people who took part in WWI and WWII have died out now. I didn't understand why you were mentioning grandpas in the context of racism. Seemed a bit harsh on grandpas (most of whom are surely now not at all racist?) in general.

I think older folk tend to still hang on to some of the assumptions around at the time subconsciously. I think as well, older people quite often fear change, which can be understandable, and that includes fear of culture changing, because once you're 80 odd, you're talking about folk who were born before houses had TVs and stuff, and the rate of change has been pretty mental lately. I think this is largely what the right weaponise - but I agree that in these cases, it's not fair to blame the old people, unless you want to paint a very large swathe of a generation with the same brush as you're painting Tommy Robinson or whoever.

[Hibrandenburg]

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That was my wife's feelings about this as well. Let them show what they can... or more likely cannot... do and people will soon see they're just a sham and have no real answers.


Interestingly, the AFD were much more successful in the rural areas in Sachsen, while the urban areas were mostly CDU, or even Greens.

Would be interesting to find out why that was the case.

Hmmh, it's almost as if people are afraid of that what they don't know. I believe the word for that is xenophobia and people who are xenophobic towards other races and cultures are racists. If we're going to have a grown up discussion about the rise of the far right, then we have to accept that those who vote for them are either racist or accept racism.

[Hibrandenburg]

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I've probably misunderstood your original point about grandpas. One of my own grandfathers' first experience of being in a foreign country was as a 16-year old in Belgium in the early part of WWI. He never went back. Not a xenophobe, but I'm not confident he would have voted against Brexit, and I wouldn't be that quick to condemn him for it.

As you suggest, people who took part in WWI and WWII have died out now. I didn't understand why you were mentioning grandpas in the context of racism. Seemed a bit harsh on grandpas (most of whom are surely now not at all racist?) in general.

Understood, I could easily have put another example at the lower end of the racist spectrum. I guess I'm talking about people who are unconsciously racist, they are not necessarily bad people, but hold racist beliefs that our society past and present has conditioned them to accept as fact.

[AgentDaleCooper]

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Hmmh, it's almost as if people are afraid of that what they don't know. I believe the word for that is xenophobia and people who are xenophobic towards other races and cultures are racists. If we're going to have a grown up discussion about the rise of the far right, then we have to accept that those who vote for them are either racist or accept racism.

the problem with that is that it immediately removes such people from the discussion, many of whom are genuinely acting in good faith, just based on awful information and crap circumstances. there's lots of people who have no problem being around foreigners who are still voting for far-right parties, because they genuinely, on an intellectual level, believe that immigration is what is causing their lives to be rubbish. they're wrong, but they're not necessarily racist.

If the discussion you want to have is simply "what are we going to do with these deplorable?!", then batter on - I just think that's been shown not to work.

EDIT: I'm referring to the voters, not the parties - they are absolutely deplorable, and we do need to do something about them. I just think blaming the voters is treating the symptom and not the cause.

[Keith_M]

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That’s the same everywhere isn’t it?
City people don’t really fear immigration and rural people do?
I always assume that the people who live beside migrants in the cities are used to it and rural people are afraid of the unknown and different. They think they don’t like what the cities have become.

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Hmmh, it's almost as if people are afraid of that what they don't know. I believe the word for that is xenophobia and people who are xenophobic towards other races and cultures are racists. If we're going to have a grown up discussion about the rise of the far right, then we have to accept that those who vote for them are either racist or accept racism.

Yeah, I think you both have a point.

I know people in the rural areas around Dresden and despair at some of the stuff they've come out with. The bizarre thing being that they live in areas that are almost exclusively White German.

Dresden city centre on the other hand... both north and south... voted massively for the Greens.

[Hibrandenburg]

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the problem with that is that it immediately removes such people from the discussion, many of whom are genuinely acting in good faith, just based on awful information and crap circumstances. there's lots of people who have no problem being around foreigners who are still voting for far-right parties, because they genuinely, on an intellectual level, believe that immigration is what is causing their lives to be rubbish. they're wrong, but they're not necessarily racist.

If the discussion you want to have is simply "what are we going to do with these deplorable?!", then batter on - I just think that's been shown not to work.

EDIT: I'm referring to the voters, not the parties - they are absolutely deplorable, and we do need to do something about them. I just think blaming the voters is treating the symptom and not the cause.

We need to get back to a place where racism is a bad thing. Since the onset of Brexit it has become socially acceptable to express racist views because the politicians expressing those views vehemently deny they are racist and that is mirrored by those who vote for them.

Before that can happen we need to reestablish what racism and what racist behaviour is. If people don't know they're racist or are supporting it via the ballot box, then any grownup discussion about immigration is impossible.

[Ozyhibby]

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We need to get back to a place where racism is a bad thing. Since the onset of Brexit it has become socially acceptable to express racist views because the politicians expressing those views vehemently deny they are racist and that is mirrored by those who vote for them.

Before that can happen we need to reestablish what racism and what racist behaviour is. If people don't know they're racist or are supporting it via the ballot box, then any grownup discussion about immigration is impossible.

And people on the left also have to acknowledge that immigration without an increased supply of housing and other resources comes at a cost.
There needs to be some growing up on both sides.


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[AgentDaleCooper]

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And people on the left also have to acknowledge that immigration without an increased supply of housing and other resources comes at a cost.
There needs to be some growing up on both sides.


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and people in the centre have to acknowledge that although necessary, increasing the supply of housing is actually pretty devastating to the environment. meanwhile, England and Wales (not sure about Scotland) have over 500,000 second homes lying empty most of the year.

there needs to be some growing up - and by this I mean an acknowledgement of a misplaced sense of entitlement and moral authority - by the centre as well.

[Stairway 2 7]

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and people in the centre have to acknowledge that although necessary, increasing the supply of housing is actually pretty devastating to the environment. meanwhile, England and Wales (not sure about Scotland) have over 500,000 second homes lying empty most of the year.

there needs to be some growing up - and by this I mean an acknowledgement of a misplaced sense of entitlement and moral authority - by the centre as well.

Better on the housing thread as a lot of old ground but the uk has the smallest number of available homes not used as first homes in the oecd at 2% spare. The western European average is 8%, we'd need 3 million homes built to match Germany.

There is 150,000 homeless children in the uk up 15% in a year, 320,000 homeless households in the UK.

Oz is spot on immigration was absolutely massive in the uk we had 2,100,000 net migration in 3 years. I'm all for immigration they are net contributors. You need to use that money to increase households at the same rate, increase doctors, hospitals schools ect. If you don't you'll have increased homelessness and longer waiting lists.

Problem is that's exactly what happened under the last government, the money got siphoned away.

[Jamesie]

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I believe there are both simple and complicated reasons people vote for far right parties. There's a wide spectrum of racists out there, from your frothing at the mouth nazi to to grandpa who just doesn't feel comfortable amongst foreigners. There's a hell of a lot of votes to be had from that demographic if you can push the right buttons.

According to data published by the pollsters Infratest Dimap, 38 per cent of those aged between 18 and 24 voted for the AfD in Thuringia on Sunday. In neighbouring Saxony, 31 per cent did the same. In both states, the party was able to increase its vote share among this age group by at least 11 per cent to become the most popular party with young Germans. Approximately one in three Germans under the age of 34 voted for the AfD.

So it isn’t really fair to just point to “grandpa”.

[AgentDaleCooper]

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According to data published by the pollsters Infratest Dimap, 38 per cent of those aged between 18 and 24 voted for the AfD in Thuringia on Sunday. In neighbouring Saxony, 31 per cent did the same. In both states, the party was able to increase its vote share among this age group by at least 11 per cent to become the most popular party with young Germans. Approximately one in three Germans under the age of 34 voted for the AfD.

So it isn’t really fair to just point to “grandpa”.

very true - social media has a lot to answer for, and tbh the moralistic approach maybe is more appropriate towards this demographic in some circumstances, even if it might fall on deaf ears. **** knows. nowt will change until the policies of governments change though, in terms of reducing poverty and providing housing (including building new houses - it's just that the environmental implications, as always, get thrown out of the window, or viewed in a very short term and narrow way.

[Keith_M]

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According to data published by the pollsters Infratest Dimap, 38 per cent of those aged between 18 and 24 voted for the AfD in Thuringia on Sunday. In neighbouring Saxony, 31 per cent did the same. In both states, the party was able to increase its vote share among this age group by at least 11 per cent to become the most popular party with young Germans. Approximately one in three Germans under the age of 34 voted for the AfD.

So it isn’t really fair to just point to “grandpa”.

Thanks for that, it provides a bit of balance on the assumptions about certain demographics

👍

[Hibrandenburg]

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According to data published by the pollsters Infratest Dimap, 38 per cent of those aged between 18 and 24 voted for the AfD in Thuringia on Sunday. In neighbouring Saxony, 31 per cent did the same. In both states, the party was able to increase its vote share among this age group by at least 11 per cent to become the most popular party with young Germans. Approximately one in three Germans under the age of 34 voted for the AfD.

So it isn’t really fair to just point to “grandpa”.

I wasn't pointing at granpa, granpa was being used as the bottom end of a spectrum of those who might vote for far right parties.

[Hibrandenburg]

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Thanks for that, it provides a bit of balance on the assumptions about certain demographics

👍

The AfD vote was broken down pretty much straight after the election and the older generation 60+ voted in smaller numbers than other generations. Pretty much why I used the word granpa to cover the bottom end of a spectrum on how nasty you're average right winger is.

[Keith_M]

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The AfD vote was broken down pretty much straight after the election and the older generation 60+ voted in smaller numbers than other generations. Pretty much why I used the word granpa to cover the bottom end of a spectrum on how nasty you're average right winger is.

No, that's fair. It's more the assumption among some people that the young are so much more elightened than the older generation, which isn't always the case.

[Stairway 2 7]

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According to data published by the pollsters Infratest Dimap, 38 per cent of those aged between 18 and 24 voted for the AfD in Thuringia on Sunday. In neighbouring Saxony, 31 per cent did the same. In both states, the party was able to increase its vote share among this age group by at least 11 per cent to become the most popular party with young Germans. Approximately one in three Germans under the age of 34 voted for the AfD.

So it isn’t really fair to just point to “grandpa”.

Complete opposite of UK and Scotland bizarrely. Labour got in from a massive percentage of under 50s. Reform got the vast majority of their votes from the over 50s. This did them OK as in the uk percentage of who votes is much higher the older you get

Greens and Lib dems got double the votes reform got in the under 30s and Labour 7 times more. In 65 and older it was tories out in front and Labour and reform tied for 2nd