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  1. #8221
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    Quote Originally Posted by HarpOnHibee View Post
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    I was referring to Labour, not the SNP. Considering the free ride Anas Sarwar has in Scotland and the complete reluctance of the media to challenge them over the 2 child cap policy, they should be winning this sort of seat reasonably comfortably. Failing to do so would be a disaster for them.
    It's the same thing. The media was the same for both parties at the last election and snp had and a landslide. If it was a scientific experiment you'd say the media has been a constant and its something else causing the snp slide. Most probably the culture wars battle I think


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  3. #8222
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stairway 2 7 View Post
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    It's the same thing. The media was the same for both parties at the last election and snp had and a landslide. If it was a scientific experiment you'd say the media has been a constant and its something else causing the snp slide. Most probably the culture wars battle I think
    They were the same for both parties in the previous election due to the anti-neoliberal Corbyn. They now have their top man in place and will no longer have a bad word to say about the branch party in Scotland. The SNP will continue to get it in the neck though.

  4. #8223
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    Quote Originally Posted by HarpOnHibee View Post
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    They were the same for both parties in the previous election due to the anti-neoliberal Corbyn. They now have their top man in place and will no longer have a bad word to say about the branch party in Scotland. The SNP will continue to get it in the neck though.
    That doesn't explain the umpteen other elections snp have skooshed including the 2021 Holyrood or 2015 GE. They have constantly been steady in the polls until December when they plummeted

  5. #8224
    Resident contrarian SHODAN's Avatar
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    I've just received my baby box and my house was up in flames moments later. I'm currently typing this at the Virgin Healthcare Homeless Shelter on a refurbished second hand iPad that Keir Starmer kindly loaned to me at a reasonable rate after I reassured him we would have no more than two children. Curse you Sturgeon!

    (the baby box is fantastic, great policy)

  6. #8225
    @hibs.net private member CropleyWasGod's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Diclonius View Post
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    I've just received my baby box and my house was up in flames moments later. I'm currently typing this at the Virgin Healthcare Homeless Shelter on a refurbished second hand iPad that Keir Starmer kindly loaned to me at a reasonable rate after I reassured him we would have no more than two children. Curse you Sturgeon!

    (the baby box is fantastic, great policy)
    Congratulations

  7. #8226
    @hibs.net private member McD's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Diclonius View Post
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    I've just received my baby box and my house was up in flames moments later. I'm currently typing this at the Virgin Healthcare Homeless Shelter on a refurbished second hand iPad that Keir Starmer kindly loaned to me at a reasonable rate after I reassured him we would have no more than two children. Curse you Sturgeon!

    (the baby box is fantastic, great policy)

    I thought you were serious when I read your first sentence, glad you were kidding


    congrats on the wee one

  8. #8227
    Robin Harper quits Scottish Greens as party has 'lost the plot' - BBC News

    There must be many within the SNP who rue the day they brought this lot on board for the sake of Sturgeon's majority.

  9. #8228
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    Quote Originally Posted by He's here! View Post
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    Robin Harper quits Scottish Greens as party has 'lost the plot' - BBC News

    There must be many within the SNP who rue the day they brought this lot on board for the sake of Sturgeon's majority.
    I wouldn't think so. What was their alternative with the tories, labour and lib dems all grouping together at Holyrood?

  10. #8229
    @hibs.net private member Ozyhibby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by HarpOnHibee View Post
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    I wouldn't think so. What was their alternative with the tories, labour and lib dems all grouping together at Holyrood?
    Yip. The Scottish parliament is now divided on constitutional lines. When the SNP do eventually lose power, it will be to a Labour, Tory, Lib Dem coalition.


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  11. #8230
    @hibs.net private member Just Alf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ozyhibby View Post
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    Yip. The Scottish parliament is now divided on constitutional lines. When the SNP do eventually lose power, it will be to a Labour, Tory, Lib Dem coalition.


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    The other scenario would be if we ever did get independence

    I think Labour could win handsomely after the 1st term

  12. #8231
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    Quote Originally Posted by Just Alf View Post
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    The other scenario would be if we ever did get independence

    I think Labour could win handsomely after the 1st term
    I think we will be like Northern Ireland with loads of parties some for independence and some rejoin.

    We need to be truthful and admit there will be a huge cut in our finances after independence due to losing barnett funding. We'll need to make big cuts. We'll also need a large amount of austerity to get in eu.

    Things will be financially difficult for a decade much like brexit. We'll lose a lot of funding, try to get a trade deal with the uk and not be in the EU

    There will be calls to rejoin just like brexit. What we need to put forward is we have the opportunity to make things better post the initial pain

  13. #8232
    @hibs.net private member Ozyhibby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stairway 2 7 View Post
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    I think we will be like Northern Ireland with loads of parties some for independence and some rejoin.

    We need to be truthful and admit there will be a huge cut in our finances after independence due to losing barnett funding. We'll need to make big cuts. We'll also need a large amount of austerity to get in eu.

    Things will be financially difficult for a decade much like brexit. We'll lose a lot of funding, try to get a trade deal with the uk and not be in the EU

    There will be calls to rejoin just like brexit. What we need to put forward is we have the opportunity to make things better post the initial pain
    With all this dirty oil money coming in, maybe we won’t need cuts? Especially if we take a share more like what the Norwegians take.


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  14. #8233
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ozyhibby View Post
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    With all this dirty oil money coming in, maybe we won’t need cuts? Especially if we take a share more like what the Norwegians take.


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    That ship has sailed. Contracts signed and we won't get a boon from the renewables as we get pennies in the pound for that too unfortunately. We will eventually rejoin EU and flourish. There will definitely be austerity first and the media will be in full drive for rejoin. I think we need prepared for that as the job isn't over post independence day

  15. #8234
    @hibs.net private member Ozyhibby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stairway 2 7 View Post
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    That ship has sailed. Contracts signed and we won't get a boon from the renewables as we get pennies in the pound for that too unfortunately. We will eventually rejoin EU and flourish. There will definitely be austerity first and the media will be in full drive for rejoin. I think we need prepared for that as the job isn't over post independence day
    All the renewable licenses haven’t been sold yet? I expect next GERS figures will show Scotlands deficit to be in better territory.


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  16. #8235
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ozyhibby View Post
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    All the renewable licenses haven’t been sold yet? I expect next GERS figures will show Scotlands deficit to be in better territory.


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    There's obviously future licences to be sold but the last big sale we are getting an estimated £50 million profit per year and the energy companies £3.5 billion. It will take a large departure for us to do a Norway.

    Hopefully Wales are successful setting up there energy company with common weal and it'll grow confidence in that approach. Because the next two big tranches will be sold before we get independence

  17. #8236
    @hibs.net private member Jack's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stairway 2 7 View Post
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    We need to be truthful and admit there will be a huge cut in our finances after independence due to losing barnett funding. We'll need to make big cuts. We'll also need a large amount of austerity to get in eu.
    You make it sound as if Scotland doesn't have any income other than the Barnet Formula!

    Where do you think Westminster gets all the money to generously bestow on Scotland?

    Do you think these mercenary ******** wouldn't have got shot of us at the last referendum if we were costing them money?

    Too wee, too poor by bahooky!
    Space to let

  18. #8237
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jack View Post
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    You make it sound as if Scotland doesn't have any income other than the Barnet Formula!

    Where do you think Westminster gets all the money to generously bestow on Scotland?

    Do you think these mercenary ******** wouldn't have got shot of us at the last referendum if we were costing them money?

    Too wee, too poor by bahooky!
    You may not like it but its a fact. We get more than we bring in. London subsidises most of the UK. Look at the GERS figures. It's not a compliment to the union that Scotland is poorer but it simply is.

    We aren't too poor we would still be a wealthy nation, our gdp would be less than England but with the chance to join EU I'm sure we'd grow faster

  19. #8238
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stairway 2 7 View Post
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    You may not like it but its a fact. We get more than we bring in. London subsidises most of the UK. Look at the GERS figures. It's not a compliment to the union that Scotland is poorer but it simply is.

    We aren't too poor we would still be a wealthy nation, our gdp would be less than England but with the chance to join EU I'm sure we'd grow faster
    We don't actually know what we raise as there has been no proper analysis done on this in decades.

    GERS is certainly not an accurate reflection of Scotland's finances, there's way too many assumptions, suppositions and guesswork in there for it to be worth anything.

  20. #8239
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stairway 2 7 View Post
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    You may not like it but its a fact. We get more than we bring in. London subsidises most of the UK. Look at the GERS figures. It's not a compliment to the union that Scotland is poorer but it simply is.

    We aren't too poor we would still be a wealthy nation, our gdp would be less than England but with the chance to join EU I'm sure we'd grow faster
    That is not fact and has been proven many times to be untrue. I'm surprised you bring Gers up in a good light on this site.

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  21. #8240
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    Some say GERS overplays it but most decent analysis says there still is a gap where we get more. That is before we get to barnett giving us more than our population share. I don't think there is a sensible analyst that doesn't say there will be a funding gap post independence

  22. #8241
    Private Members Prediction League Winner Hibrandenburg's Avatar
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    Is GERS calculated before or after government ministers have troosered their cut or given their pals a slice of the cake?

  23. #8242
    @hibs.net private member Jack's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stairway 2 7 View Post
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    Some say GERS overplays it but most decent analysis says there still is a gap where we get more. That is before we get to barnett giving us more than our population share. I don't think there is a sensible analyst that doesn't say there will be a funding gap post independence
    Good luck getting a reputable accountant to sign them off as a true and fair view of Scotlands financial position.
    Space to let

  24. #8243
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    The replies show me that when we're independent and at a deficit, it's going to be an open goal for rejoin. If we're not truthful now then yes voters are going to say we were lied to that there won't need to be cuts. We will have to take an equal share of the massive debt. Also if we want to join the EU we will have to make cuts from our current deficit of 7% down to 3% post joining

    Derek Mackay conceded that GERS is independent and a reflection of now. His argument is its not a reflection of where we could be so he's going to produce a rival similar to the UKs growth commission. I think that's fair its a decent snapshot of now but not of where we can be

  25. #8244
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stairway 2 7 View Post
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    The replies show me that when we're independent and at a deficit, it's going to be an open goal for rejoin. If we're not truthful now then yes voters are going to say we were lied to that there won't need to be cuts. We will have to take an equal share of the massive debt. Also if we want to join the EU we will have to make cuts from our current deficit of 7% down to 3% post joining

    Derek Mackay conceded that GERS is independent and a reflection of now. His argument is it's not a reflection of where we could be so he's going to produce a rival similar to the UKs growth commission. I think that's fair its a decent snapshot of now but not of where we can be
    You're right. Let's not even bother.
    Last edited by grunt; 03-08-2023 at 10:06 AM.

  26. #8245
    Quote Originally Posted by Stairway 2 7 View Post
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    You may not like it but its a fact. We get more than we bring in. London subsidises most of the UK. Look at the GERS figures. It's not a compliment to the union that Scotland is poorer but it simply is.

    We aren't too poor we would still be a wealthy nation, our gdp would be less than England but with the chance to join EU I'm sure we'd grow faster
    Scotland able to spend more on public services after deal with UK Treasury | Scotland | The Guardian

  27. #8246
    @hibs.net private member Moulin Yarns's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by He's here! View Post
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    Or more correctly add to the Scottish debt.


    The agreement will allow ministers in Edinburgh to double their annual borrowing to protect day-to-day spending to £600m
    There is no such thing as too much yarn, just not enough time.

  28. #8247
    @hibs.net private member Ozyhibby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stairway 2 7 View Post
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    The replies show me that when we're independent and at a deficit, it's going to be an open goal for rejoin. If we're not truthful now then yes voters are going to say we were lied to that there won't need to be cuts. We will have to take an equal share of the massive debt. Also if we want to join the EU we will have to make cuts from our current deficit of 7% down to 3% post joining

    Derek Mackay conceded that GERS is independent and a reflection of now. His argument is its not a reflection of where we could be so he's going to produce a rival similar to the UKs growth commission. I think that's fair its a decent snapshot of now but not of where we can be
    We don’t know that our deficit is 7%?


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  29. #8248
    Coaching Staff degenerated's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ozyhibby View Post
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    We don’t know that our deficit is 7%?


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    We have absolutely no idea as Gers are a nonsense. The last time I bothered to look through them I noticed 17 or 18 instances of assumed figures being used and the spend on defence was twice that of the UK,.amongst other stuff. I guess the Scottish income tax system has made the data for that more robust but they still have little idea on the country of origin for indirect taxation and I'm not sure it even takes account of UK borrowing?

    The argument is always that they are the SG figures but it's based on incredibly poor information provided by HM Treasury. There needs to be proper independent fiscal reporting created so we can see the actual position rather than this politically motivated report that Ian Lang had created to weaken the case for Scottish self determination.

  30. #8249
    @hibs.net private member Jack's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by degenerated View Post
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    We have absolutely no idea as Gers are a nonsense. The last time I bothered to look through them I noticed 17 or 18 instances of assumed figures being used and the spend on defence was twice that of the UK,.amongst other stuff. I guess the Scottish income tax system has made the data for that more robust but they still have little idea on the country of origin for indirect taxation and I'm not sure it even takes account of UK borrowing?

    The argument is always that they are the SG figures but it's based on incredibly poor information provided by HM Treasury. There needs to be proper independent fiscal reporting created so we can see the actual position rather than this politically motivated report that Ian Lang had created to weaken the case for Scottish self determination.
    You're absolutely right.

    Just look at all these former British Empire countries that are now floundering. Not.
    Space to let

  31. #8250
    @hibs.net private member Greenworld's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ozyhibby View Post
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    We don’t know that our deficit is 7%?


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    We legally have to balance our books every year we don't have a definitely. This is a mythical part of English debt

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