Scottish Independence

[Ozyhibby]

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Tradition is sometimes ignored, Blair didn’t follow convention when corresponding with Charles (although that’s when he was a mere Prince of course, but there’s still convention there).

https://amp.theguardian.com/uk-news/...ies-to-charles

But he did put off his conversion to Catholicism until after he was PM.


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[Ozyhibby]

https://news.stv.tv/politics/falling...f-uk-ifs-warns

Being in the UK is awesome.


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[Mibbes Aye]

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https://news.stv.tv/politics/falling...f-uk-ifs-warns

Being in the UK is awesome.


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In every day and every way it seems like we made the right choice by not putting everything on black when it was going to come up red.

Can you imagine the state of the economy if we had gone with Lyle Lanley, ehm I mean Alex Salmond, and his monorail, ehm I mean his Scottish nirvana funded by oil and gas?

[Ozyhibby]

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In every day and every way it seems like we made the right choice by not putting everything on black when it was going to come up red.

Can you imagine the state of the economy if we had gone with Lyle Lanley, ehm I mean Alex Salmond, and his monorail, ehm I mean his Scottish nirvana funded by oil and gas?

You say that as if we have a great economy.


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[Mibbes Aye]

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You say that as if we have a great economy.


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I don’t really. But you say that as if you want to read that.

[grunt]

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https://news.stv.tv/politics/falling...f-uk-ifs-warns

Being in the UK is awesome.

We'd best get out of the UK quick then!

[Ozyhibby]

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I don’t really. But you say that as if you want to read that.

I want to read someone with ideas for change but I’m not hearing that from anyone just now.


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[Smartie]

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In every day and every way it seems like we made the right choice by not putting everything on black when it was going to come up red.

Can you imagine the state of the economy if we had gone with Lyle Lanley, ehm I mean Alex Salmond, and his monorail, ehm I mean his Scottish nirvana funded by oil and gas?

I don't doubt that we'd have had a few, er, volatile and bumpy years immediately post independence but I'd expect we'd have been back on the right track by now, certainly with a far brighter future than the one we face as part of the UK.

As for Salmond's "plan" - it was nonsense, but if it was problematic enough we could have changed direction and adapted, the way any country has to when it is fully accountable for it's actions.

[Mibbes Aye]

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I want to read someone with ideas for change but I’m not hearing that from anyone just now.


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I can understand that. The IFS (and others) are good at analysis but that just gets broken into rubble to load the slingshots of partisan politicking.

Change as a reaction happens eventually. The Tories would appear to have run out of road in England. There is usually a tipping point and it came goodness knows when, maybe Owen Paterson. What I mean is that even without opposition from Labour, the SNP etc, it would happen.

Driving change is less straightforward but still eminently doable. A good settled narrative of what and why, that people can coalesce around, is critical. For what it’s worth I don’t think Labour have established that narrative yet, I don’t think they will fully try until nearer a GE and I think that’s tactical. I would probably prefer it to have more strategic impact at this stage but maybe it is and I am not recognising it. I also think there isn’t a particularly cohesive narrative crying out to be recognised - it is too splintered - but if there was one to be found in UK politics it is about security- security of income and living costs, security of housing, security of care now and later in life, security of investment and opportunity for business, especially SMEs.

So I think Labour needs to show it has answers. So does the SNP. Independence as an end goal doesn’t cut it. All the shallow words about ‘well-being economies and being ‘socially progressive’ don’t cut it, not from a party that has had a firm hand on the crucial levers for 16 years.

[Ozyhibby]

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I can understand that. The IFS (and others) are good at analysis but that just gets broken into rubble to load the slingshots of partisan politicking.

Change as a reaction happens eventually. The Tories would appear to have run out of road in England. There is usually a tipping point and it came goodness knows when, maybe Owen Paterson. What I mean is that even without opposition from Labour, the SNP etc, it would happen.

Driving change is less straightforward but still eminently doable. A good settled narrative of what and why, that people can coalesce around, is critical. For what it’s worth I don’t think Labour have established that narrative yet, I don’t think they will fully try until nearer a GE and I think that’s tactical. I would probably prefer it to have more strategic impact at this stage but maybe it is and I am not recognising it. I also think there isn’t a particularly cohesive narrative crying out to be recognised - it is too splintered - but if there was one to be found in UK politics it is about security- security of income and living costs, security of housing, security of care now and later in life, security of investment and opportunity for business, especially SMEs.

So I think Labour needs to show it has answers. So does the SNP. Independence as an end goal doesn’t cut it. All the shallow words about ‘well-being economies and being ‘socially progressive’ don’t cut it, not from a party that has had a firm hand on the crucial levers for 16 years.

I agree with that. We are not even at the stage of recognising what the problems are.
I’m not sure Starmer has what it takes to establish a narrative at all. I believe he wants power and he is working hard to get it. I have no idea why he wants it though. With Blair, there was a much more developed plan by now in the election cycle. Starmer will likely win from here but for what? Slightly less crap than the last guy?


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[Mibbes Aye]

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I agree with that. We are not even at the stage of recognising what the problems are.
I’m not sure Starmer has what it takes to establish a narrative at all. I believe he wants power and he is working hard to get it. I have no idea why he wants it though. With Blair, there was a much more developed plan by now in the election cycle. Starmer will likely win from here but for what? Slightly less crap than the last guy?


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Part of it, for me, links to how we consume news and opinion and how we voice choice. The printed press was the central venue of political discourse in the mid-nineties. Round-the-clock TV news, the internet and then social media all overtook that.

That has changed how narratives are established. I would have to give it a lot more thought but inherently it feels like it has extended both ways from the mean. So, ideas can spread and take hold much, much more quickly. But underneath that there is more of a tectonic shift, towards identity politics, single-issue politics that is reflected in a cynicism or rejection of politics (and possibly provides oxygen to populism and those who harness it?).

I am hesitant because I suspect people said similar when TVs got into almost every home, or radios before that or mass print newspapers. Then again, maybe they did say that and it still holds true because the same things happen, regardless of the latest advance in tech or behaviours!

[Ozyhibby]

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Part of it, for me, links to how we consume news and opinion and how we voice choice. The printed press was the central venue of political discourse in the mid-nineties. Round-the-clock TV news, the internet and then social media all overtook that.

That has changed how narratives are established. I would have to give it a lot more thought but inherently it feels like it has extended both ways from the mean. So, ideas can spread and take hold much, much more quickly. But underneath that there is more of a tectonic shift, towards identity politics, single-issue politics that is reflected in a cynicism or rejection of politics (and possibly provides oxygen to populism and those who harness it?).

I am hesitant because I suspect people said similar when TVs got into almost every home, or radios before that or mass print newspapers. Then again, maybe they did say that and it still holds true because the same things happen, regardless of the latest advance in tech or behaviours!

I’d say the UK is ripe for a populist leader to come along offering simple solutions to complex problems. We have already had one but he wasn’t competent. A competent one might not be far away.


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[Ozyhibby]

Yousaf boosts Indy.


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[Stairway 2 7]

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Yousaf boosts Indy.


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Last two I've seen savanta and panalbase have yes -1. The one he is quoting does have yes +1 but 6 points behind no, although it also has another swing to Labour for Westminster with labour still 5 behind.

I think we'll have to give it a few months as snp should regain some bigger leads I'd think

[Stairway 2 7]

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Yousaf boosts Indy.


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Actually the polling he's quoting puts Labour ahead at the general election due to seat concentration, so not a huge win?

https://mobile.twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1643284330809049088

Election Maps UK
@ElectionMapsUK
My Seat Model:

LAB: 25 (+24)
SNP: 22 (-26)
CON: 7 (+1)
LDM: 5 (+1)

Changes w/ GE2019

[Paul1642]

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Yousaf boosts Indy.


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Aye but it’ll be Labour who have to implement independence at this rate 😂

[Ozyhibby]

https://reformscotland.com/2023/04/f...t-sales-taxes/

Among all the knockabout fun today this an interesting and serious contribution to the debate on Scotlands tax powers.


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[Mibbes Aye]

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https://reformscotland.com/2023/04/f...t-sales-taxes/

Among all the knockabout fun today this an interesting and serious contribution to the debate on Scotlands tax powers.


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Interesting read but I'm a little concerned about how the writer addresses the flaw in VAT, namely it is a regressive tax.

Using increased VAT take to reduce income tax is a crude mechanism for helping the working poor and doesn't help the not-working poor, it penalises them.

The author suggests that could be mitigated by transfer payments (in this case benefits) but that adds an extra step to the process and cuts to them lands solely on the recioients i.e. the poor.

Interesting though.

You know Jack McConnell is chair of their board?

[Ozyhibby]

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Interesting read but I'm a little concerned about how the writer addresses the flaw in VAT, namely it is a regressive tax.

Using increased VAT take to reduce income tax is a crude mechanism for helping the working poor and doesn't help the not-working poor, it penalises them.

The author suggests that could be mitigated by transfer payments (in this case benefits) but that adds an extra step to the process and cuts to them lands solely on the recioients i.e. the poor.

Interesting though.

You know Jack McConnell is chair of their board?

Yes and it’s Chris deeren who wrote the foreword as well who writes almost daily about how awful the SNP are.
While full Indy is my preference I also would welcome a proper level of devolution. Do that and maybe Indy falls back in the polls but what’s happening now won’t change people’s desire for Indy. The current system doesn’t work no matter who is in charge up here or down there.


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[Mibbes Aye]

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Yes and it’s Chris deeren who wrote the foreword as well who writes almost daily about how awful the SNP are.
While full Indy is my preference I also would welcome a proper level of devolution. Do that and maybe Indy falls back in the polls but what’s happening now won’t change people’s desire for Indy. The current system doesn’t work no matter who is in charge up here or down there.


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It would be interesting to see where a debate took the country - in relation to devolving things like VAT, but crucially what happened to it at Holyrood.

I suspect it wouldn't go down party lines, for a variety of reasons. Certainly the SNP would be split, Scottish Labour as well I suspect, the Tories maybe a bit. Unless there was heavy whipping going on.

I probably agree with lowering it, if possiblr, as there is a clear benefit to lower income households. But I can understand the arguments as to why leaving it or increasing it or changing it completely could be argued to deliver the same, just in a different way.

[Ozyhibby]

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It would be interesting to see where a debate took the country - in relation to devolving things like VAT, but crucially what happened to it at Holyrood.

I suspect it wouldn't go down party lines, for a variety of reasons. Certainly the SNP would be split, Scottish Labour as well I suspect, the Tories maybe a bit. Unless there was heavy whipping going on.

I probably agree with lowering it, if possiblr, as there is a clear benefit to lower income households. But I can understand the arguments as to why leaving it or increasing it or changing it completely could be argued to deliver the same, just in a different way.

The real one that could change devolution is business taxes. That would allow different parts of the UK to set tax rates which attract high skilled jobs outside of London, which sucks in all the investment just now.
The country needs to start manufacturing more and I just can’t see London driving that. It would be far more likely to happen at a local level.


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[Ozyhibby]

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[JeMeSouviens]

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Their last poll was 54-46 I think. So no collapse in indy support yet in this or other polls. Party movement significant SNP->Lab and a little Tory->Lab I think but be v interesting to see if this eventually leads to a big jump for No as well or not.

[Ozyhibby]

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Their last poll was 54-46 I think. So no collapse in indy support yet in this or other polls. Party movement significant SNP->Lab and a little Tory->Lab I think but be v interesting to see if this eventually leads to a big jump for No as well or not.

Or if the drop in SNP numbers is sustained.


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[JeMeSouviens]

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Or if the drop in SNP numbers is sustained.


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Actually, the SNP doesn't drop as much in that poll's Westminster or Holyrood numbers as in the other polls. Although obviously this is before the big dig!

[Stairway 2 7]

All under one banners line up of speakers on the 6th of May in Glasgow. All 3 leadership contestants, although I thought Humza would be at coronation. Should be good though

https://mobile.twitter.com/AUOBNOW/s...33819088670721

[degenerated]

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All under one banners line up of speakers on the 6th of May in Glasgow. All 3 leadership contestants, although I thought Humza would be at coronation. Should be good though

https://mobile.twitter.com/AUOBNOW/s...33819088670721

Yousaf won't be there, he'll be in London. I think he has confirmed that now.

[cabbageandribs1875]

Yousaf/Gordon/Forbes all said they would be attending the independence rally during the hustings and not the poncy coronation for some crooked old man Humza Yousaf will attend King Charles's coronation – not AUOB rally | The National

[cabbageandribs1875]

my goodness, they really are petrified of Scottish independence eh

[Stairway 2 7]

"Similar to images Nazis used against Jewish people "

Come off it ha. Some cultists need to get a grip. They wouldn't care if it was boris or Charlie. It's all going a Charlie Hebdo