Vaccine Passports for Easter Road

[Moulin Yarns]

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I totally get that and believe people who are ‘anti vax’ are total idiots. But there needs to be more emphasis on increasing capacity of our health service as we all know this disease isn’t going anywhere

We did that, temporarily with the louisa Jordan. Unfortunately COP26 needs the venue.

[wookie70]

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Absolute nonsense, double jabbed only means you re less likely to die from the virus and hence helps the NHS by not needing to go to hospital. Everyone vaccinated or not can still spread the virus, at the moment the majority of patients are below 50 with a vast majority not vaccinated, that in itself should tell you why getting the jab is important, also the new variants play a big part in this.

Lots of this thread is about transmission and the fact double vaxxed are less likely to pass the virus on to others and also to catch it themselves. The Government's stated reasons in yesterday's paper, which came out hours before the vote, has as its first point of reasoning "Research evidence indicates that being vaccinated reduces the risk that a person will become infected with the virus, and likely further reduces their risk of transmitting coronavirus. Ensuring only those who are vaccinated attend higher risk venues and events therefore directly reduces the risk of transmission."

I put up a post saying that you are more likely to have Covid if you are double vaxxed and in the age group 40-79, an age group that is overwhelmingly double vaxxed, and question why this would be if the vaccine made it less likely for you to catch covid. The paper I link to is from the NHS so I would say is as good a source as you get.

I don't dispute that being vaccinated means it is less likely you will end up in hospital or die. However, it is impossible to die from Covid if you don't catch it so transmission is the biggest fundamental to me. The government appears to be saying it is ok if you catch it while holding a passport given they are allowing these events to take place. 18-29 year old have a 4 in a million chance of dying according to that paper if unvaccinated and a 1 in a million chance if double vaxxed. Yes it is 4 times more likely to die if double vaxxed but it is far more likely you will die of a multitude of other things young people do. Is coercion a good long term plan for the young and indeed other age groups.

At the moment there are around half the amount of patients in ICU and in hospital with covid with lesser symptoms than in January when the Scottish population was largely unvaccinated. According to Public Health Scotland "The highestnumber of new admissions are now in those aged 50-59 years, 70-79 years and 80+." which are obviously in the most highly vaccinated group. I can't see figures to say who and who is not vaccinated in hospital in Scotland. According to Public Health Scotland the vast majority of patients in ICU from March to August has been those over 44. In fact the numbers of admissions 379 and in the period of March to April there were around 5 to 6 times more patient in Scottish ICUs who were aged 45-84 than those aged 15-44. You may be right about there being more under 50s patients but I can't see that figure in Scotland and there are far more older people in Hospital with Covid in England. Can you point to a report that says that there are more under 50s in hospital. Here is what I looked at for England

[hibsforeurope]

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I totally get that and believe people who are ‘anti vax’ are total idiots. But there needs to be more emphasis on increasing capacity of our health service as we all know this disease isn’t going anywhere

Looking at ways to prevent hospitalisations is and should be the priority. We don't have a magic money tree to be able to just build new hospitals/wards when the need arises, it would have to come out of some other sectors budget. Dealing with Covid (or any other disease/pandemic) as early as possible is always the best solution.

We will, likely, need to just live with Covid but like other diseases that have been vaccinated against it's manageable and cases are virtually zero.

[Moulin Yarns]

In reply to Wookie, not going to quote the whole post. The number of vaccinated is so much higher in that age group it then follows that the number infected is proportionately higher. It's all about percentages.

[wookie70]

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The govt can only look at things on a population scale, hence the big stick approach.

In France, peoples "principles" soon disappeared when told they couldnt sit outside a cafe having a fag and a coffee without the Pass Sanitaire.

From what I can read the French Govt brought in Passports towards the end of July. Here is the graph for the French Vaccine uptake, looks like it flattened after July to me.

Capture.jpg

[Andy74]

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Absolute nonsense, double jabbed only means you re less likely to die from the virus and hence helps the NHS by not needing to go to hospital. Everyone vaccinated or not can still spread the virus, at the moment the majority of patients are below 50 with a vast majority not vaccinated, that in itself should tell you why getting the jab is important, also the new variants play a big part in this.

This just isn't true and it is amazing a lot of people are still repeating this.

The vaccine might not be 100% effective in stopping you getting the vaccine and also passing it on, but it absolutely does do this.

[LaMotta]

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In reply to Wookie, not going to quote the whole post. The number of vaccinated is so much higher in that age group it then follows that the number infected is proportionately higher. It's all about percentages.

Yes good point.

That data on page 14 is very easily misinterpreted and is not the best way to measure vaccine effectiveness. It actually says this on page 13:

20210910_094008.jpg

[wookie70]

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In reply to Wookie, not going to quote the whole post. The number of vaccinated is so much higher in that age group it then follows that the number infected is proportionately higher. It's all about percentages.

I obviously understand that but not sure if you understand per capita figures.

I was replying to someone who said there were more under 50s in hospital than over 50s. That isn't the case.

My other point is that there are more 40-79 year olds with it who are double vaxxed than who are not vaccinated. Percentages you mention aren't applicable as it is a per capita figure. You are more likely according to that NHS paper to have covid if you are between 40 and 79 if you are double vaxxed. That makes no sense to me given the Govt narrative on transmission but nobody is asking why that would be and I don't think I have read the figure wrong, glad to be corrected if I have.

[CapitalGreen]

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From what I can read the French Govt brought in Passports towards the end of July. Here is the graph for the French Vaccine uptake, looks like it flattened after July to me.

Capture.jpg

They weren’t official until the end of July but it was apparent in France that they were going to be introduced from late June/early July so the positive impact on vaccination would need to be measured from around then as people got vaccinated in preparation of their introduction.

[Stairway 2 7]

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From what I can read the French Govt brought in Passports towards the end of July. Here is the graph for the French Vaccine uptake, looks like it flattened after July to me.

Capture.jpg

Did you ignore when I put up this before. This is a graph of French vaccine uptake in the days around vaccine announcement. Complety flat then millions of bookings in the next couple of days after macrons announcement. There antivax stance went out the window when he said they couldn't even go into a pub or cafe
20210717_WOC850.jpg

[wookie70]

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Yes good point.

That data on page 14 is very easily misinterpreted and is not the best way to measure vaccine effectiveness. It actually says this on page 13:

20210910_094008.jpg

I'm not sure I take your point. I'm not questioning whether the vaccine is effective in stopping hospitalisation or death. It works well for that. I'm also expecting more vaccinated older people to be in hospital as there are more of that group vaccinated. My points are around transmission and given the passports are about large events transmission is obviously an important part. The government make that clear in their reasoning. The per capita nature of the figures I quote takes care of the higher numbers of vaccinated people in the age group 40-79. I'm most certainly, as your post links to, not expecting the vaccine to be a silver bullet as has been mentioned here previously.

You have read the report if you pulled that para. Are you more likely on a per capita basis to have covid in the age group of 40-79 if you are double vaxxed or not vaccinated. And then explain why the government tells us effectiveness against transmission of the vaccination is one of the keys to passports, the first mentioned point they make in their paper. That doesn't make sense to me. What am I missing. My view is that behaviours are changed and that the usefulness of the vaccine against transmission is short in terms of time and has now pretty much worn out with the older cohort. There are papers to suggest that on Pfizer but not seen any on AZ but why else would double vaxxed people be more likely to catch it from 40-79 years old than the same age group who are unvaccinated.

Getting covid is still the most important factor in becoming ill so transmission has to be hugely important. I'm 53 so more likely, as a double vaxxed person, to be carrying it than one of my friends who has decided not to be vaccinated. I'm not convinced even with the stats on vaccinated people being less likely to pass it on or catch it given the figures for 40-79 year olds so I look at the figures and think I would be less likely to pass covid on if I hadn't been vaccinated. I'm actually content that it does stop transmission for a period of time as it looked that way a few months back but that picture is changing. Should the passports have any priority in the government agenda. No for me.

[calumhibee1]

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I obviously understand that but not sure if you understand per capita figures.

I was replying to someone who said there were more under 50s in hospital than over 50s. That isn't the case.

My other point is that there are more 40-79 year olds with it who are double vaxxed than who are not vaccinated. Percentages you mention aren't applicable as it is a per capita figure. You are more likely according to that NHS paper to have covid if you are between 40 and 79 if you are double vaxxed. That makes no sense to me given the Govt narrative on transmission but nobody is asking why that would be and I don't think I have read the figure wrong, glad to be corrected if I have.

Of course there’s more people with COVID in that age group who are vaccinated. The overwhelming majority of people in that age group are vaccinated, so it goes without saying that they’ll make up the majority of infections.

The vaccinated have less infections per head, significantly less hospitalisations per head and significantly less deaths per head though.

I’m the 40-49 age group you’re around 8 times more likely to end up in hospital if you’re unvaccinated. You’re about 6 times more likely to die.

Whilst those numbers vary in different age groups, they all show the same picture. You’re generally slightly more likely to get infected if you’re unvaccinated, however you’re multiple times more likely to end up in hospital and multiple times more likely to die.

And if you end up in hospital, then you’re taking up not just one bed, but more than one bed due to the spacing requirements needed to treat Covid patients. That’s a couple of beds you’re taking away from someone who is on a waiting list and may die on a waiting list for other issues such as cancer etc. All because these folk want to believe wackos on Twitter rather than the experts.

To anyone that isn’t vaccinated. Get ****ing vaccinated and stop being a selfish prick.

[JeMeSouviens]

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I obviously understand that but not sure if you understand per capita figures.

I was replying to someone who said there were more under 50s in hospital than over 50s. That isn't the case.

My other point is that there are more 40-79 year olds with it who are double vaxxed than who are not vaccinated. Percentages you mention aren't applicable as it is a per capita figure. You are more likely according to that NHS paper to have covid if you are between 40 and 79 if you are double vaxxed. That makes no sense to me given the Govt narrative on transmission but nobody is asking why that would be and I don't think I have read the figure wrong, glad to be corrected if I have.

You are totally wrong and spreading dangerous misinformation.

[wookie70]

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Did you ignore when I put up this before. This is a graph of French vaccine uptake in the days around vaccine announcement. Complety flat then millions of bookings in the next couple of days after macrons announcement. There antivax stance went out the window when he said they couldn't even go into a pub or cafe
20210717_WOC850.jpg

No I simply never saw it. That looks completely different to the graph I found. Both appear to be from reputable sources. Yours certainly makes a case that in the short term coercion could be an effective way to get people to feel compelled to be vaccinated. Looks like the reason for the difference is my one if jags in the arm and your one is for bookings. In a month or so there may be a spike in the graph I shared if those bookings become vaccinations.

[Peevemor]

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They weren’t official until the end of July but it was apparent in France that they were going to be introduced from late June/early July so the positive impact on vaccination would need to be measured from around then as people got vaccinated in preparation of their introduction.

Even before. Vaccination was first open to my age group (50-55) on the 10th of May and I made my appointment the following day because even then there was talk of passes being required for certain events - festivals, etc. I would have chosen to be vaccinated anyway, but I definitely wouldn't have been as quick off the mark if it wasn't for the "threat" of Covid passports being introduced.

[wookie70]

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I totally get that and believe people who are ‘anti vax’ are total idiots. But there needs to be more emphasis on increasing capacity of our health service as we all know this disease isn’t going anywhere

There are 3000 NHS Scotland staff off sick now. Stopping transmission is the most important way to increase capacity as most of these workers are highly unlikely to need hospital care but are simply not able to work. You don't stop transmission by allowing 50k attendences at football matches regardless of vaccinations or passports

[rotherhamrob]

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Probably because the Flu doesnt cause as many hospitalisations in the younger people who are currently in ITUs with Covid.

Hospitals could - just - deal with Flu epidemics each winter.

Covid has changed the landscape on beds / staffing.

There is limited / no headroom for beds in hospitals, so encouragement / boot up the bahookie is required to get the population vaccinated before winter.

None of this is tricky if you think about it, tbf.......

Flu doesn't cause as many hospitalizations in the young?
You might like to check that and while your at it check rsv in the young.

[calumhibee1]

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Flu doesn't cause as many hospitalizations in the young?
You might like to check that and while your at it check rsv in the young.

Flu doesn’t cause as many hospitalisations as COVID, you surely can’t be arguing that point?

[CapitalGreen]

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No I simply never saw it. That looks completely different to the graph I found. Both appear to be from reputable sources. Yours certainly makes a case that in the short term coercion could be an effective way to get people to feel compelled to be vaccinated. Looks like the reason for the difference is my one if jags in the arm and your one is for bookings. In a month or so there may be a spike in the graph I shared if those bookings become vaccinations.

Only if everyone booked their appointment for the same few days, which due to capacity constraints wouldn’t be possible. That’s why in your graph the curve steepens but is smoother.

Edit - also your graph contains second doses, to give a better representation of the vaccine uptake effect from vaccine passports only first doses should be included.

[wookie70]

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You are totally wrong and spreading dangerous misinformation.

Can you tell me why I am wrong. This is the table/graph I am looking at. Can you tell me how I am misunderstanding it. If I am I will be the first to apologise. The rates for vaccinated individuals are in black and the table is per 100K people and from the NHS albeit in England

Capture1.jpg

[wookie70]

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Only if everyone booked their appointment for the same few days, which due to capacity constraints wouldn’t be possible. That’s why in your graph the curve steepens but is smoother.

Edit - also your graph contains second doses, to give a better representation of the vaccine uptake effect from vaccine passports only first doses should be included.

Point taken but I think my graph is simply doses administered, either first or second. If I had seen the other chart I would have been convinced coercion looks like it will work in France. This chart was the first I found when I looked.

[CapitalGreen]

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Point taken but I think my graph is simply doses administered, either first or second. If I had seen the other chart I would have been convinced coercion looks like it will work in France. This chart was the first I found when I looked.

Yes which makes it inappropriate for use in a comparison of people going from unvaccinated to vaccinated. France started their vaccinations back in December 2020 so a lot of the positive growth in the chart prior to vaccine passports being introduced would be people getting their 2nd vaccine. The impact is much clearer if you look at first first doses alone as the graph below shows. First doses were levelling off towards the end of June then have spiked again when it became clear vaccine passports were coming in.

AA9064C6-CB53-47B2-AB99-7457D77787AE.jpg

[CentreLine]

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What does this mean in terms of refunds on ST? Is it a case of just contacting the Club?

Maybe let us know when you’ve done. Sure there will be some people interested to know.

[CentreLine]

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It's the biggest farce ever.

The vaccine is to limit serious health risk and in turn reduce the stress on the NHS? Correct?

So I'm assuming the Flu vaccine will also be apart of these vaccine passports? Everyone that's entitled to a flu jag must get one or same applies?

Cause if this isnt the case then why?

Once you get your head round the diffence between endemic and pandemic you should be reassured about that

[J-C]

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If you’d read the posts that my reply was in response to you would see that I got my first jag at the earliest possible date for me and because I got covid when I was due my second I’ve to wait another 4 weeks for the vaccine (12 weeks from first jag) and a further 2 weeks until the jag is valid on the vaccination certificate. It’s not as black and white as you’re making out. Agree plenty are lazy/ignorant but plenty young folk have waited until it was their turn to protect those at higher risk - that was always my stance when my mum was hassling me to get a vaccine earlier than I was able to without claiming to be a carer which I was perfectly entitled to do

Sorry it wasn't aimed at you but younger people in general, I should've pointed that out.

[rotherhamrob]

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Flu doesn’t cause as many hospitalisations as COVID, you surely can’t be arguing that point?

Nope,my bad,just assumed it was being insinuated that it was more dangerous for kids.
That'll teach me to read things properly.

[Santa Cruz]

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By October 1st it will be over 8 weeks since 16-18 year olds could start getting vaccinated. Any 17 year old who wanted to be fully vaccinated before their 18th birthday in October could have done so.

I'm not sure that's correct. The JCVI have still to take a final decision when they will get their second dose. Last time I looked at their website it suggested a 12 week interval for the 2nd dose for this age group to give longer lasting immunity and less disruption to education with this age group sitting exams.

[CapitalGreen]

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I'm not sure that's correct. The JCVI have still to take a final decision when they will get their second dose. Last time I looked at their website it suggested a 12 week interval for the 2nd dose for this age group to give longer lasting immunity and less disruption to education with this age group sitting exams.

The doesn’t apply to 17 year olds within 3 months of their 18th birthday

[Santa Cruz]

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The doesn’t apply to 17 year olds within 3 months of their 18th birthday

Yip, that's right. I wouldn't have thought that's a big percentage in that age group though. Just pointing out no decision has been taken yet for the rest of that cohort.

[JeMeSouviens]

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Can you tell me why I am wrong. This is the table/graph I am looking at. Can you tell me how I am misunderstanding it. If I am I will be the first to apologise. The rates for vaccinated individuals are in black and the table is per 100K people and from the NHS albeit in England

Capture1.jpg

The effectiveness of the vaccines against infection is well established in multiple large scale trials designed to show whether it is or isn't effective. You are selecting a limited subset of data and trying to draw a conclusion it doesn't support. I mean the fact that the report actually included a warning about such misinterpretation immediately preceding the data you lifted ought to have been a bit of a giveaway.