Coronavirus

[Moulin Yarns]

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About 6 months ago I’d of agreed with you. Shambolic since

You mean when everyone thought it was a good idea to go abroad for a holiday.

[Moulin Yarns]

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Don't think it has, easy to talk about 14% this and that but with the numbers they are playing with it's just a handful people in reality, Still well short of the 150 people per 100k to be in tier 3

In which case, Perth and Kinross would be ahead of Edinburgh for going to level 2, but I don't see it happening.

[B.H.F.C]

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It's 150 and over per 100k for tier 3

75 to 150 is tier 2

The way I read it is that 75 is the upper threshold for each tier, ie 75 is the upper limit for being in tier two.

I thought that’s what all the fuss was about last week, Edinburgh getting below 75 but still not dropping a level.

[Mon Dieu4]

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The way I read it is that 75 is the upper threshold for each tier, ie 75 is the upper limit for being in tier two.

I thought that’s what all the fuss was about last week, Edinburgh getting below 75 but still not dropping a level.

The fuss was that last week edinburgh had figures that qualified it for level 1 never mind level 2, this week they are talking about rising figures yet it's still closer to level 1 than 3

[hibsbollah]

Im in awe of you guys, I still can’t remember if tier 3 is stricter than tier 4 I also referred to tier 5 today and was informed that it didn’t exist...

[danhibees1875]

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The way I read it is that 75 is the upper threshold for each tier, ie 75 is the upper limit for being in tier two.

I thought that’s what all the fuss was about last week, Edinburgh getting below 75 but still not dropping a level.

Old data now but this helps visualise it I think:

Screenshot_20201214_182301.jpg

[Mon Dieu4]

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Im in awe of you guys, I still can’t remember if tier 3 is stricter than tier 4 I also referred to tier 5 today and was informed that it didn’t exist...

I'm pedantic when I'm in the huff

[Glory Lurker]

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Old data now but this helps visualise it I think:

Screenshot_20201214_182301.jpg

So virtually nobody should be in level 3?

[Speedy]

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Much as I disagreed with last weeks decision, it’s been fully vindicated

To play devil's advocate, by going against the 'advertised' tier levels, has this led people to ignore the guidance and ultimately lead to an increase.

We'll never know what the alternative would have looked like but people could argue a drop to tier 2 and a plea to stay sensible may not have been any worse.

[danhibees1875]

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So virtually nobody should be in level 3?

They were just the council area who were under level 3 restrictions at the time. Glasgow etc aren't included and would have been in the 3/4 zone.

[Glory Lurker]

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They were just the council area who were under level 3 restrictions at the time. Glasgow etc aren't included and would have been in the 3/4 zone.

Ok. Thanks.

[Sir David Gray]

Level 1 - 20 - 75 cases per 100,000 people over 7 days and 1.5 - 3% positivity rate over 7 days

Level 2 - 75 - 150 cases per 100,000 people over 7 days and 3 - 5% positivity rate over 7 days

Level 3 - 150 - 300 cases per 100,000 people over 7 days and 5 - 10% positivity rate over 7 days

Level 4 - >300 cases per 100,000 people over 7 days and >10% positivity rate over 7 days

There is other criteria as well such as predictions on hospital capacity and future case numbers but they're harder to understand.

Edinburgh's comfortably in level 2 for case numbers and just creeping into level 3 for test positivity.

Falkirk's comfortably in level 2 for case numbers and also within level 2 for test positivity

Nowhere is meeting level 4 criteria just now. Clackmannanshire and North Ayrshire are meeting both level 3 indicators.

[Glory Lurker]

Is there anywhere that tracks how reilable the forecasts have been? I could be getting this wrong but this must be what accounts for a lot of level 3 placings?

[Berwickhibby]

Mmmmmmm https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...Ow9CeOoTBisMWc I wonder why she didn't

[degenerated]

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Mmmmmmm https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...Ow9CeOoTBisMWc I wonder why she didn't

Looks from the current figures that she made the correct call.

[Berwickhibby]

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Looks from the current figures that she made the correct call.

I wonder if Glasgow had those figures what Level they would be in....

[Speedy]

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Looks from the current figures that she made the correct call.

Or...has her choice to ignore her own guidance on tiers led others to take a more blasé approach to the rules as well?

Edit: Just an alternative view for balance

[Mon Dieu4]

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Looks from the current figures that she made the correct call.

Current figures are more or less in line with what they have been since late October, last week seemed a bit of an anomaly with being much lower, again well within level 2 requirements

[Sir David Gray]

Northern Ireland hospitals at 98% occupancy.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-55301430

[Sir David Gray]

Easing of restrictions over Christmas "makes no sense" according to doctors in Wales and the Welsh Intensive Care Society is calling for an urgent pre-Christmas lockdown.

Also seeing this article highlights how low a rate per 100,000 people Scotland has at the moment compared with other areas of the UK. Although I don't know what kind of positivity rate these areas have.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-55299862

[Radium]

Noticed that the scale on the 7 day tracker has changed it’s scale




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[Sir David Gray]

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Noticed that the scale on the 7 day tracker has changed it’s scale




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Yes they've changed the way they present their data after privacy concerns.

[Pretty Boy]

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...box=1607875609

What are people's thoughts on this piece? I'm a bit conflicted by it but I found myself nodding in agreement with large parts of it.

[Hibrandenburg]

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https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...box=1607875609

What are people's thoughts on this piece? I'm a bit conflicted by it but I found myself nodding in agreement with large parts of it.

This virus is an exception, I also agree with much of what the article says, but not in relation to a pandemic that has the potential to prematurely end the lives of millions.

[hibsbollah]

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https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...box=1607875609

What are people's thoughts on this piece? I'm a bit conflicted by it but I found myself nodding in agreement with large parts of it.

It’s a very good piece; not because it conforms to my beliefs about public behaviour in the pandemic, but because it challenges those beliefs.

I’ve broken guidance (or at least gone into grey areas) once or twice during the pandemic, each time within the confines of what I consider to be reasonable and taking regard for other people. Does that make me a hypocrite when I find fault with Dominic Cummings et al? I’d like to think not, because a) I judge my offences to be less dangerous and selfish b) I didn’t use my power as an influential person to cover it up, escape censure while at the same time preach to others about how they should behave. That’s real hypocrisy.

Individualism isn’t by definition a selfish thing or a preserve of people who don’t conform. It can be the last resort when the normal function of government and society lets you down. Sometimes when you have to make individual judgements you get to look into yourself and think about your own morality, which is a much more honest place to be than blind obedience.

[G B Young]

Have to keep our fingers crossed that this new strain doesn't alter the behaviour of the virus:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55308211

[degenerated]

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Current figures are more or less in line with what they have been since late October, last week seemed a bit of an anomaly with being much lower, again well within level 2 requirements

Indeed, but she has to make the call knowing that very quickly and very easily these figures can run out of control. I know it's **** being in level 3 but I do believe its the right call.
The Scottish government have done a pretty good job of keeping the curve in this wave as flat as it is without imposing a one size fits all lockdown on the whole country.

[Moulin Yarns]

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Yes they've changed the way they present their data after privacy concerns.

I preferred the previous colour representation. Red for danger and so on. Guess I'll get used to it.

[SHODAN]

Any changes to tiers expected today?

[Sir David Gray]

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Any changes to tiers expected today?

Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire possibly into level 3 along with East Lothian maybe?